Tol-in-Gaurhoth CXV: On the Borders of Mirkwood - Game Thread

[Blind Guardian]

Originally Posted by Formendacil

One post of Loslote's that I flagged as being a bit odd was 154 of this thread, where she does not mention me, she does not mention Nilp, nor Pitch, nor Sally. Sally is easy enough to explain as having not been around, but when I was still considering if she might have been a wolf, I wondered if what was generally a comprehensive post (i.e. it's the "here's what I'm thinking about everyone post") why the rest of us were missing. Could be that Nilp and I had both been quite active--and she HAD posted about Pitch.

Originally Posted by Loslote

So who would I be willing to vote? I get good vibes from Greenie, Rikae and Brinn, and pretty good vibes from Shasta and Huin. I haven't seen anything that makes me question Blind Guardian or Sally. So, I'm not going to be voting for any of those people. That leaves Kath, Nog, Mac, Legate, and Lommy as alternatives to the Three Cobblers. I don't have particularly strong suspicions towards any of those five, but I either see people's points about Kath or I have residual mistrust from last game (hard to tell which), and I feel like I should have a clearer feeling about Nog, Legate, and Lommy by now. So I guess I could be willing to vote for those four, but I might end up just voting for a possible cobbler if no one does anything suspicious in the next hour.

Sally was mentioned in that post.

Of course, that could just be everyone wishing Sally well, but it still goes to show that if anyone flew under the radar, it's Mac.

I complete agree with you here. Mac needs to post more. I didn't even realize that he was part of this game.

[Macalaure]

Going through the vote count... I didn't realize at the time that I was the last one left to vote! I probably would have voted for Nilp if I had been aware, not that it would have made a difference.

But anyway, the voting was pretty much all over the place and I hope we can do better toDay. I find analyzing this hard - no real bandwaggon, pretty much everyone voting for who they want with fairly weak suspicions. Yes, I know, Day 1, sure sure... but we really made it easy for the wolves to just vote for whoever with whatever reason.

Anyway, votes that struck me suspicious:
Shasta because "I like his answer but I'll vote him anyway". I'd expect an innocent to care a bit more than that.
BG because her reason half-relied on early banter. Feeling better after her explanation toDay, though.
Nogrod because he put Hui in the lead over Form and Nilp. This of course depends on Form's and Nilp's role. Nevertheless something felt odd to me about the tone of his suspicions of Hui. Can't put my finger on it.
Brinn for throwing away her vote.
Pitch for reeeally throwing away his vote.

If you don't like the way the voting is going and have a strong suspect yourself, why don't you try to convince people to go your way? A more timid person might not, admitted, but Pitch at the very least is not timid.

Originally Posted by Legate

Macalaure - he has posted very little, which actually surprises me, most of all because of the almost zero content in his one post. So much that it is actually eyebrow-raising. I definitely would like to see more from him.

I think Legate was the only one to mention me at all yesterDay, so he deserves a reply. I was kind of stressed out on Day1 and couldn't participate as much as I wanted to. I do have every intention to do better toDay. Still, "almost zero content" is harsh. Not entirely inaccurate at that point, but still harsh.


Reading Form's post (yaay, more mentions of me!)... Are you all playing this while keeping track of statistics with a spreadsheet? Am I doing this wrong?

Also, yeah, working on the participation end. Though I don't think I usually top the post count in the best of cases.

[Blind Guardian]

YES HE'S HERE!

Originally Posted by Macalaure

Reading Form's post (yaay, more mentions of me!)... Are you all playing this while keeping track of statistics with a spreadsheet? Am I doing this wrong?

It was recommended to me prior to playing. I have two computer screens too so one with the Downs and the other with the spreadsheet.

I would love to see everyone else's spreadsheets after this game. Seriously, send me your spreadsheets people!

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

The plan:

1. Post this.
2. Breakfast
3. Overanalyse this.

(Time reckoned from the start of the DAY, known innocents underlined, known baddies emphasised, person/s in the lead in bold.)

+0609: Nilp – Nilp (Nilp – 1)
+2208: Sally – none (Nilp – 1)
+2246: Shasta – hS (Nilp – 1, hS – 1)
+2312: hS – Form (Nilp – 1, hS – 1, Form – 1)
+2325: BG – Form (Nilp – 1, hS – 1, Form – 2)
+2334: Greenie – Pitch (Nilp – 1, hS – 1, Form – 2, Pitch – 1)
+2339: Rikae – hS (Nilp – 1, hS – 2, Form – 2, Pitch – 1)
+2340: Lommy – Nilp (Nilp – 2, hS – 2, Form – 2, Pitch – 1)
+2346: Nog – hS (Nilp – 2, hS – 3, Form – 2, Pitch – 1)
+2348: Lottie – Legate (Nilp – 2, hS – 3, Form – 2, Pitch – 1, Legate – 1)
+2348: Kath – hS (Nilp – 2, hS – 4, Form – 2, Pitch – 1, Legate – 1)
+2354: Brinn – BG (Nilp – 2, hS – 4, Form – 2, Pitch – 1, Legate – 1, BG – 1)
+2355: Legate – Form (Nilp – 2, hS – 4, Form – 3, Pitch – 1, Legate – 1, BG – 1)
+2355: Form – Nilp (Nilp – 3, hS – 4, Form – 3, Pitch – 1, Legate – 1, BG – 1)
+2355: Pitch – Kath (Nilp – 3, hS – 4, Form – 3, Pitch – 1, Legate – 1, BG – 1, Kath – 1)
+2356: Mac – Pitch (Nilp – 3, hS – 4, Form – 3, Pitch – 2, Legate – 1, BG – 1, Kath – 1)

[Formendacil]

[QUOTE=Blind Guardian;726433]Sally was mentioned in that post./QUOTE]

Whoops! You're right.



And, re: Mac on the subject of spreadsheets...

Yup. Never ever done that before in WW, but there's a first time for everything, and I've been learning a lot more in Excel the last few years. It's proving fun in an inane, statistical way.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Twelve minutes before the deadline, with Kath giving hS his fourth vote, there were five votes left. Form and I have two votes. Aside from Legate voting for Form and Form voting for me (<3), there was no serious attempt to overturn the hS-waggon.

If Form or I were wolves, then this is fraught situation. Assuming the wolves have already voted, or even assuming that one of them is yet to vote, then if the four people decided to cast all their votes for either Form or myself, there’s no saving us. Assuming three goodies and two baddies left, the two baddies could still give hS the conclusive lead in the tally.

Now, of course, if none of the baddies were ever in any serious trouble, then that last stretch could go all over the place and not change the status quo established twelve minutes ago. Which is what seems to have happened.

I’ll look at the hS-waggon and the other sub-waggons next.

[satansaloser2005]

It's alive!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!