Tol-in-Gaurhoth CXV: On the Borders of Mirkwood - Game Thread

[Rikae]

On Lottie's day 1 posts:
Let's not forget, in her very second post, her first mention of anyone, she banteringly goes after Form. This could have made a Form-wolf antsy - however, she voted for someone else when Form was in danger of being lynched, and that *should* have neutralized that.

Incidentally, just want to get this out there: the idea that there was little opposition to the Hui wagon = no wolves in danger doesn't quite hold water. It could just mean the wolves sat on their paws and hoped for the best rather than risk leaving a trail. This could especially be the case if they already thought the wolf in jeopardy was seer-dreamed or otherwise a lost cause (and I could totally see them leaving a packmate Nilp or Form to take his chances). So I'm not going to discount the possibility of a Nilp or Form wolf here.

#154

Originally Posted by Lottie

I get good vibes from*Greenie,*Rikae*and*Brinn, and pretty good vibes from*Shasta*and*Huin. I haven't seen anything that makes me question*Blind Guardian*or*Sally. So, I'm not going to be voting for any of those people.

A Greenie, Rikae(hey, you don't know my role), Brinn, Shasta, BG or Sallywolf would have been perfectly happy to kill Lottie immediately if they thought she looked otherwise seerish, but nothing here would have made it any more likely. Of course, with only one dream most of the seer's posting is just going to be guesswork anyway, but a potential seer on the wrong track is less of an immediate threat to the wolves than a potential seer on the right track.

No wolf points.

With that in mind:

Originally Posted by Loslote

That leaves*Kath, Nog, Mac, Legate, and Lommy*as alternatives to the Three Cobblers. I don't have particularly strong suspicions towards any of those five, but I either see people's points about*Kath*or I have residual mistrust from last game (hard to tell which), and I feel like I should have a clearer feeling about*Nog, Legate, and Lommy*by now. So I guess I could be willing to vote for those four, but I might end up just voting for a possible cobbler if no one does anything suspicious in the next hour.

... no wolf points there either. It's very noncommittal, I don't think any of these people as wolves would be particularly worried about Lottie after reading this.

And one thing that jumped out at me just now, from toDay. Nog says this would have looked seerish:

Originally Posted by Mac

I'm gonna make a leap of faith and say that Hui is innocent.

I disagree. Not another wolf point for Nog because one could reasonably disagree on this, but I don't think that looks seerish at all and therefore wouldn't put stock in theories based on that. I'd actually even put it in "things a seer might hesitate to say but a non-seer wouldn't think twice about saying" category.

As of now Form still looks vaguely suspicious to me, and Nogrod is worrying me but I don't want to put too much weight on him being a bit paranoid - that's led me astray before.