Tol-in-Gaurhoth CXV: On the Borders of Mirkwood - Game Thread

[Brinniel]

Whoops, thanks for correcting that Mac. My copy/paste got messed up there.

[Brinniel]

Originally Posted by Mac

What about:

If Brinniel is a wolf, empower Kath.
If Kath is a wolf, empower Mac.
If Macalaure is a wolf, empower Nilp.
If Nilpaurion Felagund is a wolf, empower Pitch.
If Pitchwife is a wolf, empower Rikae.
If Rikae is a wolf, empower Sally.
If satansaloser2005 is a wolf, empower Shasta.
If Shastanis Althreduin is a wolf, empower Lommy.
If Thinlomien is a wolf, empower Brinniel.

If you don't have a known wolf, empower no one.

Question: If the majority of the Dead choose to not to vote, then there will be no medium, right? I just want to be sure that our wolf in there can't mess this up.

[Macalaure]

Originally Posted by Brinniel

Question: If the majority of the Dead choose to not to vote, then there will be no medium, right? I just want to be sure that our wolf in there can't mess this up.

Exactly that.

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Brinn

Question: If the majority of the Dead choose to not to vote, then there will be no medium, right? I just want to be sure that our wolf in there can't mess this up.

I had been putting the required number towards the end of the narrations, but I see in my rush yesterday I forgot.

Anyway, someone will need 4 votes from the dead today for there to be a Medium.

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

I had been putting the required number towards the end of the narrations, but I see in my rush yesterday I forgot.

Anyway, someone will need 4 votes from the dead today for there to be a Medium.

Ah, so baddie-meddling is basically impossible. Thanks.

I have a question too: is this meant to be an indication of Greenie's dream last night, or is it just flavor?

Originally Posted by Boro

The wolves had their next target and were closing in on Greenie's house. She was in the middle of a disturbing vision. She clearly saw 1 villager's face and the face turned into a horrible, furry werewolf. There were 3 other shadowy figures in the vision but she could not make them out

[satansaloser2005]

I took the narration to imply she saw Legate, but now I'm curious as well.

Good morning! I spent the night burying my stupidity and will hopefully be all better now. Oy ve.

[Rikae]

Thing is, if she saw Legate last night, she didn't see him night 3 as everyone is supposing, so who did she see night 3?

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Rikae

Ah, so baddie-meddling is basically impossible. Thanks.

I have a question too: is this meant to be an indication of Greenie's dream last night, or is it just flavor?

My attempt at flavor. I enjoy modding games and dabbled a little in the RPing on the 'Downs, but writing has never really piqued my interests. Basically I miss the games I modded and Fea never had to do much convincing to write the narrations for me. I tried to drag her out of retirement for a guest-written narration, but too much going on and she isn't able to follow along.

[Macalaure]

Greenie did still get her Night4 dream, though, right?

[Brinniel]

A look at Pitch:

Day 1

Originally Posted by Pitch

Fishy, you say? I wonder, can you make leather from fish skin? Does fish leather make good boots?

A lot of people found Pitch cobblerish for this post, but would a cobbler be so obvious? I do wonder if he could be a wolf disguising himself as the cobbler. Or maybe the comment means nothing at all.

Originally Posted by Pitch responding to Hui

That said, I agree that Kath's description of your behaviour wasn't really accurate, as you did give your opinions on the people you pushed.

I believe this is his first mention of Kath.

Originally Posted by Pitch

Right now I feel most like voting Kath for her misrepresentation of Hui.

He then proceeds to vote for her. However, it was a throwaway vote at that point. Could this be wolf-on-wolf? Possibly. His suspicion of Kath wasn't really gathering traction at this point.

Day 2

Takes a look at Hui voters and makes this conclusion:

Originally Posted by Pitch

If there's a wolf among these four, I'd still say it's most likely Kath, with Shasta and Nog sharing second place, and Rikae most innocent-looking.

Responds to Formy's speculating of gifteds with this:

Originally Posted by Pitch

Whatever Form is, I can't imagine why whe'd write any of this as an innocent.

Fair enough, I found it worrying too. But it could be an easy cover if he's a wolf.

#264 He responds to Nogrod that he's suspected lynching an innocent for forced reasoning.

Originally Posted by Pitch in response to Formy

Wait a sec. So I'm your top suspect because of the (effectively inconsequential) placing of my vote would be perfect for wolf-on-wolf, which of course would depend on Kath being a wolf with me, but at the same time you seem to be saying your suspicion of me shouldn't be tied to your suspicion of her? Am I reading this right, or were you actually making sense and I just don't see it?
How could my vote be wolf-on-wolf WITHOUT Kath being a wolf?

Interesting.

Originally Posted by Pitch

Actually, trying to arrange my impressions into a scale, suspicion increasing top -> down:
Lommy/Greenie/Brinn
Rikae/Mac
Legate/Shasta/BG
Form/Nilp
Nog/Kath

sally should go on a hovering bar to the right of the scale, because darned if I know.

Originally Posted by Pitch

I was most likely going to vote Kath again but am reconsidering after Formy's vote.

Originally Posted by Pitch

So as not to throw away my vote again, I could vote for any of Form, Nog or Nilp (Form only as a last resort, as I think he's most likely the cobbler).

Ends up voting Nog.

If he thinks Formy is a cobbler, why would that change is mind about voting Kath? After all, a cobbler wouldn't know the roles of the wolves for sure. His suspicion of Nogrod was fairly weak throughout the Day - he seemed to go along with what others were saying.

Day 3

Originally Posted by Pitch in response to Lommy

As for my vote, well - what do you do when one of your suspects (Formy) votes the other (Kath)? How do you determine which of the two you were wrong about? I didn't feel up to wrapping my head around the question at this (for me) late hour, so I looked for a third option. I had been suspicious of Nog earlier, mainly for his IMHO (pace Nog's ghost!) forced suspicion of Hui and (to me) unconvincing defense thereof, so there I went. I could have gone for Nilp, but didn't have a strong enough impression of him.

This defense feels flimsy to me.

Originally Posted by Pitch in response to Rikae

I know you like to poke for reactions (much like our deceased Hui), put something out to see who latches on to it, and I'm fine with that on D1, but when it's two Days later and half the village seems to think I'm the cobbler for noticing one I get a bit touchy about being misrepresented. I don't know if it makes you a wolf, but if doesn't, what DOES it make you? You tell me.

There was a lot of back and forth between them and this was just one post. But it makes me think they aren't likely packmates.

Originally Posted by Pitch

I keep wondering about the plausibility of a Rikae-Legate-Kath-Form pack. As for Rikae, I'm obviously biased right now, so I'd like to re-evaluate toMorrow. Kath has suddenly started to make possibly innocent sense toDay, I hope this continues. I'm really torn between Legate and Form, but my suspicion of Form is older and stronger.

Proceeds to vote for Formy. If he's a wolf, that last sentence was a very safe suspicion of a packmate.

Day 4

Originally Posted by Pitch

Also, since the wolves now consistently killed people for suspecting Legate three Nights in a row, I'm surprised - disappointed really - he wasn't the NW.

Why would you be disappointed that he wasn't the NW? That's a good thing for us.

I still find Pitch suspicious. Looking at these posts, I wouldn't rule out a Pitch/Kath pack. A Pitch/Rikae pack looks least likely.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Form being innocent is a mind-boggle. Sorry, Form. I'm gonna have to do a major recalibration today.

[Macalaure]

I saw the argument that "If Kath is a wolf, why didn't they kill Greenie sooner?" and it got me thinking. Given that the pack seemed very sensitive to mentions of Legate, both Lottie and Greenie primarily died for that, they didn't seem to show the same concern for Kath.

The night in question is Night 3, where they picked BG. Maybe they were reeally confident they found a slipping seer? Maybe they thought Greenie's suspicion of Kath didn't have a seerish vibe to it?

Rereading BG again, her list of wolves had two known innocents (Form and Nog, both prominently), one known wolf (Legate), one semi-known innocent (Nilp), and one unknown (Sally) on it. Maybe they thought they were getting a seer who hadn't dreamt of a wolf yet, which sure is tempting.

I'm now imagining a scenario where Legate was super nervous and paranoid all the way through every single night and convinced the pack to go for whoever suspected him each time.

But yeah, the idea pretty much hinges on what exactly the wolves thought about BG, and we can't know that.

Originally Posted by Pitch

On another note, after Rikae's rather notable Seer hints yesterDay, I'm rather surprised the wolves left them alone

Probably because they treated Form like a dreamt-of wolf.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Originally Posted by Brinniel

Question: If the majority of the Dead choose to not to vote, then there will be no medium, right? I just want to be sure that our wolf in there can't mess this up.

To add to Mac's post, if the good side agrees to vote for no one, they could just leave someone to vote someone else in case Legate votes for someone (since a tie would mean no Medium).

(That's assuming I understand it correctly that the majority+ vote is needed only to declare someone a Medium immediately, and not the sine qua non to having a Medium at all.)

EDIT: And as soon I hit post:

If there is a tie, or no one reached the threshold no Medium is chosen on that day. (The Rules, emphasis mine)

I show my illiteracy.