Tol-in-Gaurhoth CXV: On the Borders of Mirkwood - Game Thread

[Brinniel]

A look at Pitch:

Day 1

Originally Posted by Pitch

Fishy, you say? I wonder, can you make leather from fish skin? Does fish leather make good boots?

A lot of people found Pitch cobblerish for this post, but would a cobbler be so obvious? I do wonder if he could be a wolf disguising himself as the cobbler. Or maybe the comment means nothing at all.

Originally Posted by Pitch responding to Hui

That said, I agree that Kath's description of your behaviour wasn't really accurate, as you did give your opinions on the people you pushed.

I believe this is his first mention of Kath.

Originally Posted by Pitch

Right now I feel most like voting Kath for her misrepresentation of Hui.

He then proceeds to vote for her. However, it was a throwaway vote at that point. Could this be wolf-on-wolf? Possibly. His suspicion of Kath wasn't really gathering traction at this point.

Day 2

Takes a look at Hui voters and makes this conclusion:

Originally Posted by Pitch

If there's a wolf among these four, I'd still say it's most likely Kath, with Shasta and Nog sharing second place, and Rikae most innocent-looking.

Responds to Formy's speculating of gifteds with this:

Originally Posted by Pitch

Whatever Form is, I can't imagine why whe'd write any of this as an innocent.

Fair enough, I found it worrying too. But it could be an easy cover if he's a wolf.

#264 He responds to Nogrod that he's suspected lynching an innocent for forced reasoning.

Originally Posted by Pitch in response to Formy

Wait a sec. So I'm your top suspect because of the (effectively inconsequential) placing of my vote would be perfect for wolf-on-wolf, which of course would depend on Kath being a wolf with me, but at the same time you seem to be saying your suspicion of me shouldn't be tied to your suspicion of her? Am I reading this right, or were you actually making sense and I just don't see it?
How could my vote be wolf-on-wolf WITHOUT Kath being a wolf?

Interesting.

Originally Posted by Pitch

Actually, trying to arrange my impressions into a scale, suspicion increasing top -> down:
Lommy/Greenie/Brinn
Rikae/Mac
Legate/Shasta/BG
Form/Nilp
Nog/Kath

sally should go on a hovering bar to the right of the scale, because darned if I know.

Originally Posted by Pitch

I was most likely going to vote Kath again but am reconsidering after Formy's vote.

Originally Posted by Pitch

So as not to throw away my vote again, I could vote for any of Form, Nog or Nilp (Form only as a last resort, as I think he's most likely the cobbler).

Ends up voting Nog.

If he thinks Formy is a cobbler, why would that change is mind about voting Kath? After all, a cobbler wouldn't know the roles of the wolves for sure. His suspicion of Nogrod was fairly weak throughout the Day - he seemed to go along with what others were saying.

Day 3

Originally Posted by Pitch in response to Lommy

As for my vote, well - what do you do when one of your suspects (Formy) votes the other (Kath)? How do you determine which of the two you were wrong about? I didn't feel up to wrapping my head around the question at this (for me) late hour, so I looked for a third option. I had been suspicious of Nog earlier, mainly for his IMHO (pace Nog's ghost!) forced suspicion of Hui and (to me) unconvincing defense thereof, so there I went. I could have gone for Nilp, but didn't have a strong enough impression of him.

This defense feels flimsy to me.

Originally Posted by Pitch in response to Rikae

I know you like to poke for reactions (much like our deceased Hui), put something out to see who latches on to it, and I'm fine with that on D1, but when it's two Days later and half the village seems to think I'm the cobbler for noticing one I get a bit touchy about being misrepresented. I don't know if it makes you a wolf, but if doesn't, what DOES it make you? You tell me.

There was a lot of back and forth between them and this was just one post. But it makes me think they aren't likely packmates.

Originally Posted by Pitch

I keep wondering about the plausibility of a Rikae-Legate-Kath-Form pack. As for Rikae, I'm obviously biased right now, so I'd like to re-evaluate toMorrow. Kath has suddenly started to make possibly innocent sense toDay, I hope this continues. I'm really torn between Legate and Form, but my suspicion of Form is older and stronger.

Proceeds to vote for Formy. If he's a wolf, that last sentence was a very safe suspicion of a packmate.

Day 4

Originally Posted by Pitch

Also, since the wolves now consistently killed people for suspecting Legate three Nights in a row, I'm surprised - disappointed really - he wasn't the NW.

Why would you be disappointed that he wasn't the NW? That's a good thing for us.

I still find Pitch suspicious. Looking at these posts, I wouldn't rule out a Pitch/Kath pack. A Pitch/Rikae pack looks least likely.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Mac

If Brinniel is a wolf, empower Kath.
If Kath is a wolf, empower Mac.
If Macalaure is a wolf, empower Nilp.
If Nilpaurion Felagund is a wolf, empower Pitch.
If Pitchwife is a wolf, empower Rikae.
If Rikae is a wolf, empower Sally.
If satansaloser2005 is a wolf, empower Shasta.
If Shastanis Althreduin is a wolf, empower Lommy.
If Thinlomien is a wolf, empower Brinniel.

If you don't have a known wolf, empower no one.

This is good, because we can hope Greenie dreamed of a wolf last Night.

Since we don't really need "if Nilp is a wolf" option, should we instead make something like:

If Brinniel is a wolf, empower Kath.
If Kath is a wolf, empower Mac.
If Macalaure is a wolf, empower Nilp.
If Pitchwife is a wolf, empower Rikae.
If Rikae is a wolf, empower Sally.
If satansaloser2005 is a wolf, empower Shasta.
If Shastanis Althreduin is a wolf, empower Lommy.
If Thinlomien is a wolf, empower Brinniel.

If you don't have a known wolf, empower no one.
If you don't have a known wolf AND think there's something alarmingly stupid about this way of communication, empower Pitch.

I'm just worried there's something we haven't taken into account, but can't think of what, and I'd like to give the dead the option to opt out from this form of communication/ let them tell us to rethink. Obviously the biggest problem is that we might have to spend toMorrow checking that they don't have a 2nd wolf while it's fairly likely they don't have one and we'd benefit much more from a known innocent.

But I think we can leave that can of worms for toMorrow. Especially if we lynch Kath who's the only relatively likely pre- last night wolf dream of Greenie's.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

I'm here for a bit but I'm at a bit of a loss as to where to start, to be honest.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Lommy

It has the smell of "I need a suspicion that's not one of my fellows, let's pick one villager and go through their posts and come up with a reason to suspect them".

This is kind of my read of Mac's suspicion of me, to be honest.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

From what I recall, Legate is fine with being bussed - I'm going to go out on a limb and say Legate is probably fine with bussing, as well - so who was Legate going after most heavily? Could be the NW - I also think there's merit to the theory that whoever-it-was (I remember reading it, don't remember the author) brought up about the NW possibly being unsuspected enough to not have them be the target of Nilp's trap and giving up Legate instead.

[Macalaure]

Originally Posted by Shasta

This is kind of my read of Mac's suspicion of me, to be honest.

Then you didn't read what I said.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by macalaure

then you didn't read what i said.

k.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Lommy

Sally - has been under my radar largely. It's interesting how all kinds of analyses toDay suddenly subtly point at her. Since this hasn't, however, resulted in actual cases against her, it feels less like an orchestrated wolf effort against Sally and more like a collective awakening about someone being dodgy.

While I don't quite trust you yet, Lommy, this is beautifully worded. I think the wolves will probably be more orchestrated today than on any other day, because this is the Day that they can win off.

[Macalaure]

Originally Posted by Lommy

Which makes me also think Legate was the most widely suspected of them and that the NW is someone who's managed to stay fairly uncontroversial.

I don't agree with this. If the wolves go for Greenie as the suspected seer since she singled out Legate, then they know that, if they're right, Legate is instant toast the next Day. The only reason to possibly list and risk anyone other than Legate is if the wolves were eager to kill the NW, no matter who the rest of the pack is or how suspected they were.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Lommy

Which makes me also think Legate was the most widely suspected of them and that the NW is someone who's managed to stay fairly uncontroversial.

Originally Posted by Macalaure

I don't agree with this. If the wolves go for Greenie as the suspected seer since she singled out Legate, then they know that, if they're right, Legate is instant toast the next Day. The only reason to possibly list and risk anyone other than Legate is if the wolves were eager to kill the NW, no matter who the rest of the pack is or how suspected they were.

"Fairly uncontroversial" versus "less suspicious than Legate" seems like such a thin hair to split.

[Kath]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Since we don't really need "if Nilp is a wolf" option, should we instead make something like:

If Brinniel is a wolf, empower Kath.
If Kath is a wolf, empower Mac.
If Macalaure is a wolf, empower Nilp.
If Pitchwife is a wolf, empower Rikae.
If Rikae is a wolf, empower Sally.
If satansaloser2005 is a wolf, empower Shasta.
If Shastanis Althreduin is a wolf, empower Lommy.
If Thinlomien is a wolf, empower Brinniel.

If you don't have a known wolf, empower no one.
If you don't have a known wolf AND think there's something alarmingly stupid about this way of communication, empower Pitch.

I'm just worried there's something we haven't taken into account, but can't think of what, and I'd like to give the dead the option to opt out from this form of communication/ let them tell us to rethink. Obviously the biggest problem is that we might have to spend toMorrow checking that they don't have a 2nd wolf while it's fairly likely they don't have one and we'd benefit much more from a known innocent.

But I think we can leave that can of worms for toMorrow. Especially if we lynch Kath who's the only relatively likely pre- last night wolf dream of Greenie's.

So, I don't like this. Changing up the list late in the day when the Dead Thread may already have been voting/organising based on the previous one I don't think is a good idea. And by putting it in, we now face the possibility that whatever the Dead Thread does, we don't know which list they are basing their response on, as they have no way to tell us that. To me, this is just going to sow confusion.

Obviously I also don't like it because it assumes my guilt. If I'm lynched toDay and the wolves get a kill toNight, which is far more likely than not, the village would be down to 4 innocents and 3 wolves. That is seriously bad odds.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Kath

So, I don't like this. Changing up the list late in the day when the Dead Thread may already have been voting/organising based on the previous one I don't think is a good idea. And by putting it in, we now face the possibility that whatever the Dead Thread does, we don't know which list they are basing their response on, as they have no way to tell us that. To me, this is just going to sow confusion.

Obviously I also don't like it because it assumes my guilt. If I'm lynched toDay and the wolves get a kill toNight, which is far more likely than not, the village would be down to 4 innocents and 3 wolves. That is seriously bad odds.

3 innocents, 1 cobbler, and 3 wolves. Worse odds - although it seems a bit odd that you wouldn't mention the cobbler here.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Has Pitch NOT been the Cobbler the whole time? Is it Kath?

I will riot.

[Kath]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

3 innocents, 1 cobbler, and 3 wolves. Worse odds - although it seems a bit odd that you wouldn't mention the cobbler here.

I was thinking in terms of the wolves getting a straight win. As in once the numbers are even the wolves have the victory. But actually yeah, a coordinated vote from the wolves and the cobbler each successive Day from toMorrow, if an innocent gets lynched toDay and the Night kill happens ... Oh dear.

[Thinlómien]

Inclined to trust for toDay

Nilp - safe to say we'd have ahd a counter reveal by now if he wasn't the bh
Shasta - I still think BG's death is a point in his favour, otherwise I don't have much (on a quick look at Greenie myself I'm unfortunately leaning towards thinking that her dreams were N1 Lottie, N2 Nilp, N3 Legate so no verification for Shasta's innocence there)
Brinn - the voice of reason in this village. It would kill me inside a little if she was a wolf. Not very worried about it right now, at any rate.


Disinclined to trust

Kath - she still gives an innocent vibe to me with her attitude, but I really think Greenie's suspicion of her might have contributed to her demise, and her connection with Legate looks a little dodgy too
Rikae - Pitch's point about wolves being willing to fake seer in this game certainly works against them, and I don't ike the fabricated-seeming suspicion against me + my earlier suspicions of them still stand
Mac - gives me an innocent vibe, and I like his taking a proactive role in the empowerment things and all, but he does look like a fairly likely Legate packmate + the fact that I was inclined to think him a seer isn't really in his favour when I think of it
Pitch - people have been calling him a cobbler all game, then ignoring him. I know I'm possibly one of the people the most guilty of this myself but it sounds like a nice place for a wolf to be. One could say they could try to get there on purpose, possibly with the help of their packmates. There's just something very wrong about how "detached" Pitch feels from the rest of the game.
Sally - has been under my radar largely. It's interesting how all kinds of analyses toDay suddenly subtly point at her. Since this hasn't, however, resulted in actual cases against her, it feels less like an orchestrated wolf effort against Sally and more like a collective awakening about someone being dodgy.


edit: xed with everyone

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Mac

I don't agree with this. If the wolves go for Greenie as the suspected seer since she singled out Legate, then they know that, if they're right, Legate is instant toast the next Day. The only reason to possibly list and risk anyone other than Legate is if the wolves were eager to kill the NW, no matter who the rest of the pack is or how suspected they were.

Fair point.

Kath - I don't think it's too late to change the list, since everyone seems to be able to be around at the deadline. AND anyway the edit I suggested is very minor, ony relevant if a) Nilp is a wolf, or b) the dead think our system sucks, and I think a) is practically impossible and b) is hopefully unlikely.

My first thought toDay was that you're a wolf, but I agree we can't jump into conclusions like that. You are right that we can't really afford lynching an innocent toDay. (Which incidentally makes me want to stab at some direction that's NOT an easy wagon for the wolves to jump on. Ie rather a less controversial villager who's nonetheless suspicious.)


edit: xed with Rikae and Shasta

[Kath]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Fair point.

Kath - I don't think it's too late to change the list, since everyone seems to be able to be around at the deadline. AND anyway the edit I suggested is very minor, ony relevant if a) Nilp is a wolf, or b) the dead think our system sucks, and I think a) is practically impossible and b) is hopefully unlikely.

My first thought toDay was that you're a wolf, but I agree we can't jump into conclusions like that. You are right that we can't really afford lynching an innocent toDay. (Which incidentally makes me want to stab at some direction that's NOT an easy wagon for the wolves to jump on. Ie rather a less controversial villager who's nonetheless suspicious.)


edit: xed with Rikae and Shasta

I still think it needs to be absolutely clear to the Dead Thread which list. Because otherwise there will be so much leeway toMorrow for people to say - oh well maybe the Dead Thread were using the second list, so that means x.

If Nilp being a wolf/not being a wolf is the issue, the original list was entirely able to deal with that. If Greenie dreamt of another wolf we will know from who is voted the Medium. If she didn't dream of another wolf, we'll know from the lack of Medium. I think that's plenty clear.

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Brinniel

Why would you be disappointed that he wasn't the NW? That's a good thing for us.

Of course it is! I meant disappointed because the Night kills all pointing to him would have made much more sense if he'd actually been the NW and they were really trying to get him lynched so he could haunt the remaining Gifted. Disappointed at the lack of narrative logic, I should say.


I'm on the fence about Mac's scheme of communication with the Dead, both the original version and Lommy's 'improvement'. (Actually, isn't that the definition of Necromancy? Well, we're close to Dol Guldur...) On the surface, it looks like a clear-cut code, but what are the Dead to do if, say, they do have a known wolf but don't trust the person they'd need no empower in order to tell us? Or if the person they would be empowering is voting for a known innocent? Should they pass the empowerment on to next person in the alphabet? But then how would they keep us from drawing all the wrong conclusions from what they did? This could quickly turn into a Paper Telephone causing all kinds of confusion and mayhem.

[Kath]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

Of course it is! I meant disappointed because the Night kills all pointing to him would have made much more sense if he'd actually been the NW and they were really trying to get him lynched so he could haunt the remaining Gifted. Disappointed at the lack of narrative logic, I should say.


I'm on the fence about Mac's scheme of communication with the Dead, both the original version and Lommy's 'improvement'. (Actually, isn't that the definition of Necromancy? Well, we're close to Dol Guldur...) On the surface, it looks like a clear-cut code, but what are the Dead to do if, say, they do have a known wolf but don't trust the person they'd need no empower in order to tell us? Or if the person they would be empowering is voting for a known innocent? Should they pass the empowerment on to next person in the alphabet? But then how would they keep us from drawing all the wrong conclusions from what they did? This could quickly turn into a Paper Telephone causing all kinds of confusion and mayhem.

I get this to a point, but if Greenie has dreamt a wolf, communicating that with us is surely the most important thing to do. Then that wolf gets lynched toMorrow. Unless by that point the baddies have unassailable numbers control over the lynch in which case the village is done for anyway.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

I'm on the fence about Mac's scheme of communication with the Dead, both the original version and Lommy's 'improvement'. (Actually, isn't that the definition of Necromancy? Well, we're close to Dol Guldur...) On the surface, it looks like a clear-cut code, but what are the Dead to do if, say, they do have a known wolf but don't trust the person they'd need no empower in order to tell us? Or if the person they would be empowering is voting for a known innocent? Should they pass the empowerment on to next person in the alphabet? But then how would they keep us from drawing all the wrong conclusions from what they did? This could quickly turn into a Paper Telephone causing all kinds of confusion and mayhem.

Can we really afford not learning it if Greenie still has a known wolf?

Besides, the dead need a CONSENSUS to empower a medium. That means that if we vote for the lynchee last minute like we tend to do, they can't probably switch their votes fast enough to direct the lynch if necessary. At most, they could cancel the choosing of empowerment which would result in them communicating they have no known wolves, which they anyway might not have.

Of course a whole another can of worms would be is it preferable to agree on voting early and let the dead empower someone's vote with the knowledge they have but I see that as harder to orchestrate among the living + potential waste of seer dream (say the dead empower Boro who votes Fea. Does this mean Boro is innocent, or Fea is guilty? We can't really conclude anything from that, AND i's no even that likely they can change the outcome of a lynch away from a known innocent/ towards a known wolf.)

Gonna x with a bunch again...