Tol-in-Gaurhoth XXI: Dueling Wizards Werewolf [Archive] - Page 2

JennyHallu

05-15-2006, 07:01 AM

Hello again...

I may never have much liked my brother-in-law, but I stand with my sister to mourn his passing. Celuien, dear, use a hankie. Naria, since your sister's off gallivanting with that boy, maybe you could...um...clean up the kitchen a bit. Put some of those saucepans away, maybe.

The village seems to have gained some direction today, focussing on who would be a clever pick of the Wizards. I am afraid I would knock Caranlondien off of the likely-wolf list, though. While my lorebooks show her ancestors as wise and learnèd villagers, a wolvish ancestor could only be categorized as somewhat...jumpy. I think the EW would go for someone who has shown finesse with the role of werewolf, since even some of the best villagers can make horrible wolves. He will also go for people with either totally consistent or totally inconsistent behavior: either people who act the same no matter their role, or people who are crazed loose cannons and cannot ever be predicted.

As such, I agree with many of the people on likely good wolf/gifted choices, but with one twist. Most people yesterday seemed to doubt Loki's claim on the assumption that the Wizards would be going for the same people, and Loki appeared on no one's mental list of likely "cursees".

But our Wizards are no doubt intelligent and well-versèd in werewolf lore, and it would surely occur to both of them that the wise among the villagers would have such a hit-list prepared, and that these choices would probably be much the same for either. For that reason, it does not seem at all unlikely that both Wizards might have made a selection meant to sidestep both the predictions of the village and their counterpart. Loki's claim rang true to me just because it seemed so unlikely.

So I would not be surprised to see the Wizardly selections swing towards vocal and controversial players just because we, the village, might assume the Wizards would never choose that person.

And: Lal and a phantom, both of you have shown incredible sense and judgement (especially the incorporeal one), and are therefore in my mind prime lynch candidates. Are your secret theories and assumptions so sensitive that it is worth the chance they are lost to the village?

Celuien

05-15-2006, 07:15 AM

Even though Oddwen was on Sauce's list, he ended up excusing her.

"I am disinclined to vote for Oddwen, as her "no vote" draws attention to her. An unlikely move for a Wolf. That narrows my list down further." ~Sauce #117
I agree with his assessment. Though if she is a wolf, his excuse of her no vote would have made him a safer target for her. I'll move her to the bottom of the list of candidates who might well be the original two wolves, but will remain wary of her.

I most likely will not vote for Alcarillo. I'm thinking that it would have brought a lot of attention to him to have killed SPM. But again, I'm still wary of a bluff, so while I'll pass for today, he is staying high on my list of those who I'll be keeping a close eye on. He currently ranks just above Oddwen in my mind.

Lommy seems less suspicious today. She's making more sense, and I rather like her flowchart.

And I still trust my father Morm. Likewise about the phantom, spawn, and Eomer. Nogrod speaks sensibly, so I would, again, be disinclined to vote for him.

Nilp is more difficult to get a handle on, due both to personality and time-zone disease, but because he strikes me as a very poor EW pick and because nothing is really striking me as furry, I don't think think he's cursed.

Sleepy, Valier, Roa and Kitanna I can't tell much about yet because they fall into the quiet category.

The only thing I have against Lhuna is her call for the GW to declare from yesterday. That issue has been discussed by me and by others, so I won't go into the reasons I think that's a bad idea right now. And again, she seems to be a riskier EW pick, so she doesn't take a prominent place on my list of suspects. I think she does, however, bear some observation. Similar reasoning applies to Fea.

The Lady Battledore doesn't seem wolvish. Too likely to get herself lynched the way she goes around swatting everyone with her handywork. :D

Which leaves me with a large contingent of intermediately chatty villagers whom I just don't know about one way or the other (read - everyone whose name isn't mentioned above or on SPM's list, which I'll get to in a minute).

So back to Oddwen, Lalaith, Caranlondien, Roa and Gurthang.

Oddwen I've already discussed. Gurthang has been relatively quiet, which makes me uneasy, but what he has said doesn't strike me as wolvish. Besides, he agrees with the phantom about the wizards, which seems to be a good thing. ;) Caran has been on the right side of the GW revealing debate (:p) and generally making sense. While she could be a wolf using sensible behavior as cover, I'm inclined to trust her for now. Roa defended Loki yesterday, and turned out to be right. She suspected those who were eager to see him gone and voted for Nogrod on that basis. My lorebooks say that her ancestors have been sensible and intelligent, and very effective at hiding as wolves until cornering made them defensive. I can't tell, however, if she suspicious or not just now. As for Lalaith, she had a very interesting interpretation in post #176 about the EW making cannon fodder wolves for the purpose of revealing them to earn village trust, then voted for Loki. It's an interesting theory, but not one I'm sure gets us anywhere. In fact, I think it makes it harder to find people that we do trust since it casts suspicion on anyone who helps uncover the wolves.

Hmm. And that didn't get me very far in my reasoning, did it? If the EW did pick from among those 5, it was a wise choice, because they are quite effective at deflecting suspicion.

I now have both good news and bad news. The good news is that the morning Cupper's convention was canceled, which allowed me to remain with my excellent and admirable fellow villagers these last few hours. The bad news is that afternoon sessions are still scheduled, and I don't know how far into the evening they are going to last, so my vote will need to come soon lest I risk returning the the village too late.

Expect the vote in the next couple of hours.

Nogrod

05-15-2006, 07:36 AM

=Jenny
I think the EW would go for someone who has shown finesse with the role of werewolf, since even some of the best villagers can make horrible wolves. This is a case in point, as we still have to remember the wolves being hand-picked. My deficient lorebook comes up with two over all the others (playing well and been wolves for many times), the ancestors of Roa and Jenny. You others who have played more should see your books for others this way highly qualified. Even though, it can be maintained, that also this "fame" might just be a reason for the wizard not to pick these people up in the first place.

He will also go for people with either totally consistent or totally inconsistent behavior: either people who act the same no matter their role, or people who are crazed loose cannons and cannot ever be predicted. This is very helpful indeed. :D So: about anyone...

So I would not be surprised to see the Wizardly selections swing towards vocal and controversial players just because we, the village, might assume the Wizards would never choose that person.I still think, that the first picks would be more likely somewhat on the under-radar -side, but the third one could already be different.

Some preliminary thoughts after running through yesterday's posting.

Nicely unseen / not suspicious enough to come lynched during the first days ie. the possible "original duo":
Caran, Valier, Kitanna, Eonwe, Lalaith

Good candidates for EW to pick as the third one (seem to have been mainly trusted by all on DAY1):
Eomer, Phantom, Fea, Spawn, Firefoot

I know, that this kind of lists are - as yet - quite random, but there's the direction I'm looking at right now: reasonable picks having a bit different basis before DAY1 and DAY2.

Roa_Aoife

05-15-2006, 07:53 AM

OOC Getting this post in- Sorry I'm late but last night involved a rather lengthy discussion with my parents and my new fiancé (they just found out.) So, this is quick, and I haven't read all the way through, but I'll be back with more this time, I promise! OOC

I don't know why you believe Loki and I are friends in RL, Diamond, but as for my reasons for believing him innocent, I laid those out already. However, for the sake of expediency- Loki's claim was believable

a. Because no one contradicted him. In the case of a villager turned wolf turn villager, there would really be nothing to fear from coming forward, so the fact that Loki was the only one who made the claim added to his believability.

b. His timing. Why come forward right away with this information unless it is true? A wolf certainly would not want to attract attention like that. He had no reason to do so unless it was the truth and he wanted the village to know immediately.

c. Lying wouldn't be that plausible. It would be easy for someone to contradict him. As I said yesterday, that move is far too bold for even me.

d. If he had been believed rather than immediately attacked for his claim *coughcoughNogrodcoughcough*, it wouldn't have caused confusion but clarity- we would have a known innocent and so could look elsewhere for lynching.

Given all of this, I would say it was Nogrod who started the confusion, not Loki.

Also, since a question of my connection to Loki arises, if I were a wizard and Loki was my friend, do you really think that I would pick him on that alone? Give me some credit- I'm a little more subtle than that. But as for the nature of our relationship, Loki is not my friend in RL. Just so ya'll know.

I'm sad that Loki had to go. I for myself tried to get him lynched yesterday, as I was myself being bandwaggoned and he was the second one in the line.

This statement has me wondering- you admit to bandwagoning, but you give an odd reason for it. You were certainly throwing suspicion on Loki from your first post. And your reasons were terrible. I'd have to say that you were the driving force behind Loki's lynching, not after you were on the kill list, but from the very beginning.

Concerning the EW. S/he would do well to enlist people who are not the primary targets / most vocal ones (as they are in most cases the first to be lynched.

Nice blanket statement- certainly throws suspicion off you almost immediately.

I'll have a more in-depth analysis later.

Second, I cannot for the life of me understand why you killed of Loki. He screamed innocence to me and I do believe he was the double pick of the night. I do not know this for certain but his claims rang true in my ears. I actually didn't find him offensive or rude and think that many of you who went after him should feel slightly ashamed at yourselfs for ganging up on him. I haven't decided yet if I believe the EW is in the group of votes for him or not. Lalaith's 'cannon fodder' idea makes great sense and that is why I consider that to be a possibility.

Major dido to Morm.

Celuien

05-15-2006, 07:58 AM

Points appreciated, Roa.

I'm swayed enough by what you've written to remove you from my suspicion for today. And to want to keep a closer watch on Nogrod tomorrow.

The time has come for a vote.

++ LALAITH

The theory in 176 doesn't sit right with me, as I've already explained. And the others on the list have behaved compellingly innocent enough for me to be less willing to vote for them.

Off to the convention.

dancing spawn of ungoliant

05-15-2006, 08:06 AM

Lommy, making polls about what other people find suspicious makes me uneasy, too, for the reasons you mentioned (more to be found in various lorebooks). What I was expecting from you was your own thoughts of Villagers. The scheme seems helpful, but have you tried it yourself? If yes, did you manage to divide people to those different groups that you spoke of? I think that kind of discussion and analysing the villagers in general would be most useful in catching the baddies.

Something in Lalaith is making me uneasy. I've tried analysing her posts, but I guess it's just the general impression than anything she'd have said directly that has caught my attention. Still, I'll take a moment to comment her posts.

#176 - the cannon fodder theory. The villager who was chosen by both Wizards is someone who'd make a good Seer.

I don't know if there is a villager who would at the same time be a good cannon fodder and Seer. The theory of making an expendable Wolf is interesting and something that the EW might try at some point, but considering that his/her job is to make as many wolves as s/he can, I don't think that sacrificing a wolf would be very profitable now that it's easy to hide among the masses.

#178 - asks when the sun will go down.

#180 - still confusion about the deadline, votes for Loki because he filled the criteria of her cannon fodder theory.

She tied Loki with Nogrod giving him a fifth vote.

#246 - several questions about rules.

Hmm, your ancestor suspected mine once for asking questions... should I suspect you? :p

- Says Sauce's death can be simply explained although then she wonders if she and phantom are thinking along the same lines. She will keep her thoughts to herself, though. Says that no one is suspecting phantom, and she doesn't either although then she starts browsing old lorebooks.

Are you saying that there might reason to suspect phantom after all? As to the lorebooks, I kind of warned the Village about same thing yesterDay, but whatever.

- Doesn't agree with Di and Fea, and thinks that revealing the GW is a silly plan. Suspects Diamond for bad taste in music?

Would it be possible for you to give the quotes from Di and Fea? I'd appreciate that. Anyway, phantom has been pretty vocal about the benefits of the GW revealing themselves soon, so is there some reason why you chose to pick those two ladies?

"The wolves - there were only two last night and presumably they either came, via their mod, to some arrangement, or the EW picked one of their two choices, or the EW may even have made a few suggestions to them regarding their kill, if such things are permissible." ~Lalaith

According to the rules:

Order of Night Activities:
1. Evil wizard picks whom to curse.
...
7. Werewolves pick whom to kill.

I understand it that way that there were three Wolves making the decision of the kill.

I need a break. I'll be back later.

edit: some cross-posting.

Nogrod

05-15-2006, 08:13 AM

Well. I know this might look bad to some eyes, but as I'm going to be off for several hours (and remember my last game just too well when Spm and Kath arranged my death and their win while I was away), I think I have to make a few corrections on some stuff flying in the air.

Please Roa. If you just check the DAY1 posts from the beginning, you should see, that what was going on, was mainly typical DAY1 bantering - with the slight twist of Loki being somewhat overtly defencive. So not driving lynch from the first moments. Roa: you ask others to give you credit of not being a fool. Please give me that credit too... :)

Some people have voiced their concern of me changing my style between DAY1 & 2. Surely. That's what I always do. I need to get some suspicion on me on DAY1 to live over the nights. Simple as that. And I've played that way from my second game onwards.

Oddwen

05-15-2006, 08:18 AM

*walks in, a purloined chicken under each arm*

I am in agony. So much to read through, and so little time for me to decide what to do!

She's odd.
Never heard *that* before.

Gah! So much talk, and yet so little to glean!

Just hit me - the Wolves don't know who each other are, this means they aren't certain who's innocent either. I personally would like to see the wizards gone, only because it would be less confusing for me. (A selfish wish indeed, I fear).

I'm going to go brush my teeth, and try to come up with a vote. It'll be the only time I can, because those chickens won't catch themselves.

Lalaith

05-15-2006, 08:31 AM

don't know if there is a villager who would at the same time be a good cannon fodder and Seer

Spawn, you misunderstood me. Three wolves were picked by the EW. One would be, in my theory, "cannon fodder". This would NOT be the same wolf that was changed back.

I'll be back to post more, including the quotes Spawn requested, in a moment when I've had a bit more time.

Oddwen

05-15-2006, 08:40 AM

I've decided, I suppose.

++LALAITH

Because she never really loved me! And for a few things that Spawn pointed out, and a few little hunches of my own.

Must leave now, see you toMorrow

Cailín

05-15-2006, 08:43 AM

Never heard *that* before.

Always happy to state the obvious. :)

What you say is actually very much to the point. All wolves and the wizard are working individually. The wolves will as likely accuse each other as anyone else. If I were a wolf now, I'd probably play no differently than I do now, for why would I?

Therefore, the only likely way to find out the wolves is to ask yourself the question: if I were the EW, who would I have chosen to be my minions?

If we assume Loki was indeed speaking the truth -and I'm starting to think he did- who would you team up with him? Surely not another controversional person likely to be a loudmouth. Loki and Nogrod or Roa -for example- seems like a destructive choice.

Concerning Lalaith and her canon fodder theory... I don't find it as logical as some. The Evil Wizard will -I think- be more concerned with creating as many decent wolves as fast as possible than prolonging his own life using eccentric tactics. The more days pass, the more likely it is he will be scried and challenged.

(Oh, and, if the evil wizard is Fea, these would have been her wolves: Loki, Lalaith and Lhunardawen. I shall support this theory for now, as it seems to be no less rational or irrational than anything we come up with.)

JennyHallu

05-15-2006, 08:48 AM

Quote:
He will also go for people with either totally consistent or totally inconsistent behavior: either people who act the same no matter their role, or people who are crazed loose cannons and cannot ever be predicted.
This is very helpful indeed. :D So: about anyone...
I meant this to exclude anyone who behaves differently when a wolf or gifted than otherwise. I suppose I would mean Roa would be a bad choice, because when innocent she is vocal and controversial, and when wolvish or gifted, she is much more careful. OOC- Congratulations on your engagement, by the way, Roa...

the phantom

05-15-2006, 08:49 AM

*Phantom pops into the village tavern*

"I'll be able to speak in about three hours. Just letting everyone know so you didn't wonder where I was."

*Phantom pops back out of the village tavern*

"Probably off with Zali," observed several villagers.

Thinlómien

05-15-2006, 08:52 AM

The problem is that I don't feel anyone particularly suspicious. The people I suspected yesterday are acting more reasonably today (Nogrod, Alcarillo).

I have no real suspects, but I feel the following people should be watched:
Nogrod - very strange yesterday, I don't feel his reasonability toDay wholly excuses him
Celuien - makes sense, I agree, but I think she was rather unfair with the analysis on me yesterday. (Oh well, I'm not sure if I feel more insulted than suspicious... :p) But my lorebooks tell of wolves trying to make the village see through lenses set by them.
Lalaith - as pointed out, her theory is rather odd. I don't see how it could succeed nor why the EW would like to waste one wolf on it.
Kitanna, Firefoot, Kath, Zali - all of them contributed to the game, but they all masterfully avoided attention. I fear they will slip under the radar.
the phantom - the village trusts him too much.
Eomer - his sudden vote for Nogrod was pretty strange yesterday
Jenny, Gurth - they leave me with absolotely no opinion, though they participate. That makes me feel that I should watch them in order to get a picture of them.
Alcarillo, Oddwen - their behaviour disturbed me yesterday. I need more time to get an image of them.
Sleepy - no record from yesterday (with understandable reasons).

As my list seems to include nearly all of the villagers :rolleyes: I think I should comment on the rest as well:
Diamond - babbling all the time (no insult intended). (Maybe she's substituting Roa... :p) Feels rather innocent.
Cara - she's smart, I don't deny it. Nothing in her has caught my suspicion.
spawn, Cailín, Roa - make good points and sense.
Lhuna, Fea, morm - nothing particularily suspicious here either.
Glirdy - sympathic, my dear brother. Innocent most probably.
Valier, Eonwe, Nilp - completely their normal style. Don't raise any suspicions in me.
Naria - was chatty early yesterday but started to make sense later. Feels innocent.

If I forgot somebody, please let me know.

edit: xed with the lot posting after Oddwen's previous post (not the newest)

Lalaith

05-15-2006, 08:54 AM

It's an interesting theory, but not one I'm sure gets us anywhere. In fact, I think it makes it harder to find people that we do trust since it casts suspicion on anyone who helps uncover the wolves.

Celuien, isn't this a case of "shoot the messenger"? Yes it will be harder to find people to trust but that is not my fault - it's what the new rules involve, I'm afraid. I've thought a lot about the possibilities in this game and I've come to the conclusion that there are even more chances than usual for the evil side to subvert logic. So while I usually like to combine deduction and instinct, I've realised that particularly in the early stages of this game, I'm going to have to rely more on instinct than I usually do, and less on logic.
The only thing in our favour is that the wolves don't know who to trust either.

Oh and here's that quote you wanted, Spawn, it's from Diamond's post 210:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Fea
I also agree with whomever it was that mentioned searching out the wizards. It gives us a legitimate project for day one. It will put them off guard. Sure, it would mean sacrificing the good wizard in all probability, but since the good wizard lives to die in such a way, I won't feel too badly about it. Consider: who would expect that an entire village would gang up on their wizards? Surely we would want to keep our good wizard around. Blah blah pros and cons blah blah. With the pressure of an entire village actively seeking, the evil wizard will have to be REALLY good to avoid screwing up.

Not much more to say except that I agree with this and am of basically the same mind. The GW lives to be martyred in order to cease the creation of Wolves. Nuff said.

As for the music thing, I was just having a bit of fun. I AM meant to be frivolous, you know... :rolleyes:

mormegil

05-15-2006, 09:15 AM

I find it odd also that Lalaith is garnering so much suspicion. All she has said and done seems rather logical and helpful. I think her 'Cannon Fodder' theory on Day 1 was to help explain a way in which Loki would be innocent.

Does anybody else find it problematic that the majority of us are saying things like..."If I were the EW I would select ...." We are telling the EW who we think he/she would pick thus giving them the opportunity to select others whom we do not think they would choose. The same goes for selecting the EW, of course LMP wouldn't select the phantom or Eomer...or would he knowing that we would think he wouldn't. See what I mean about over thinking this?

I would really like to analyze Diamond more as well as Thinlomien, however they are the top posters and as a mayor it is my job to fill vacant slots therefore I have interviews to do all day long (RL) and will be able to poke in and out but not read past post overly but some people are sticking out to me.

Alcarillo: was extremely defensive without much suspicion cast on him. It seems as if he almost didn't vote to kill SpM last night but was over ruled by his comrades and now is anxious to exonerate himself first thing.

Diamond: with all the banter it's hard to find what she is saying. Her post coming out and addressing everything I said today I found interesting and attention grabbing.

Celuien: Sorry daughter but WW don't respect familial ties, and what better shield to hide behind than family?

Glirdan: Just isn't sitting right

Nogrod: Different behavior, a bit less rash and more cautious.

Thinlo: Wants to be very vocal and helpful but hasn't really given much by actual suspicion. She gives a lot of wide sweeping statments that cover a lot of people. Behavior that I would find consistent with lycanthropy.

There are others that I am watching and others I am currently trusting, but that is another problem. If we all trust the phantom, which I do, it would be easy to turn him into a wolf and we would all continue that trust for a while. I believe the seer wouldn't dream of him early, I wouldn't because it would be a waste to dream of him so early.

Thinlómien

05-15-2006, 09:28 AM

I find it odd also that Lalaith is garnering so much suspicion. All she has said and done seems rather logical and helpful. I think her 'Cannon Fodder' theory on Day 1 was to help explain a way in which Loki would be innocent. I don't find it odd that she's suspected, but I find it odd that she's bandwagoned. Am I not correct if I say anyone else hasn't been voted yet?

Thinlo: Wants to be very vocal ...Morm, you are misdiagnosing me. I don't want to be vocal; I just am and can't do anything about it.

edit: marked the quote properly

dancing spawn of ungoliant

05-15-2006, 09:48 AM

Do two votes make a bandwagon? I see your point, though. Quite a few people has voiced suspicion of her, so for early voters Lalaith might be the "safe vote" of the Day. I still find Lalaith suspicious and she might get my vote toDay, but I'd like to hear other people's theories of other villagers, too.

Oddwen was the one to give the second vote for Lalaith because some hunches she had and because of relationship issues. She also said that she's voting for Lalaith because of something I said. I would have appreciated if Oddwen could have given a reason to her vote, but to me it looks that she decided to go with some ready theory without giving her own thoughts at all. I think I'll add Oddwen to my suspicion list.

edit: Forgot this: Valier got a vote from Nilp, so Lalaith isn't the only one who has votes.

Thinlómien

05-15-2006, 09:54 AM

Oddwen was the one to give the second vote for Lalaith because some hunches she had and because of relationship issues. She also said that she's voting for Lalaith because of something I said. I would have appreciated if Oddwen could have given a reason to her vote, but to me it looks that she decided to go with some ready theory without giving her own thoughts at all. I think I'll add Oddwen to my suspicion list. I agree her vote was too random. I didn't like it at all that she just popped in, said hello, had a pause, voted and left. Though I wonder if a wolf'd be that careless. Knowing she's an experienced player I still include the possibility that she's double-bluffing.

Roa_Aoife

05-15-2006, 10:07 AM

Since Nogrod told me to go back and look at his posts, I did

Nogrod analysis

Day 1
1st post - Nonsense, insinuates Loki is lying (2nd post of the day)
2nd - More suspicion of Loki, says his very claim is suspicious, says Loki is overly defensive and acting strangely, "I hope you [Loki] rot in hell pretty soon," doesn't think a wizard would pick Loki
3rd - Says "If SPM had taken on a new identity, it would be you…"
4th - Agrees with phantom, says that the wizards wouldn't pick high profile players
5th - complaint about times
6th - Accuses Thin of being overheated and wolfish
7th - Looks at people who haven't really spoken, vote update, says Nilp's vote for him had no grounds
8th - Updates voting list, shows himself in the lead, "Great!"
9th - Says Lommy seems quite happy to be rid of him
10th - says Celuien's version of the vote may be correct
11th - Another vote update
12th - Says we should look closely at Loki over the following days, seems quite certain that Loki was picked by the EW, votes Loki
13th - response to Loki, says his being pressed for time seems convenient
14th - Looks specifically at the people who have voted for him
15th - Another vote update
16th - Another vote update

Day 2
1st - Agrees with Celuien, can't trust anyone, agrees with Diamond, "sad" Loki had to go so soon, admits to bandwagoning to save himself, "They [his reasons for voting Loki] were believable, but wrong" States again that the EW should pick people who are not vocal, but are the lay low kind, points out that we can't track mutual posting.
2nd - Says he'll go back and look at Day 1, thinks that wizards are the clue of the game, again says that the wizards would choose under the radar types, is still unsure about Loki being the double-choice, thinks that last Night's choice would be a higher profile player, thinks that SPM was eliminated just because he's a good player
3rd- agrees with Jenny that the EW may pick a player known to have finesse at werewolf, i.e. Roa and Jenny, still thinks that the first picks would be under the radar types, comes up with lists of likely choices
4th - Encourages Roa to read up on his posts (which I did), claims tiff with Loki was typical Day 1 bantering, admits to changing his style

Analysis to follow

Kath

05-15-2006, 10:12 AM

Too much discussion of bluffs here I feel, especially this early in the game. There are just too many people to consider the possibility of trickery by each of them. In fact, there is too much discussion full stop. 7 pages people! It's Day 2!

Ahem, Lalaith? Haven't seen anything that would make me feel suspicious of her, though admittedly I've only done rather a rushed reading so far.

SPM's death wasn't really that odd. Every player here knows he's a formidable opponent. What we must also remember is that even if there was dissention in the ranks, two of the wolves had to vote SPM in order to kill him not one. (This is if I've got the rules right!) So we know that, eventually, two people wanted him dead. This suggests to me that the wolves are people who think him too dangerous to be left alive, and have either had bad experiences with him or just generally don't want to face him.

This leads me to suspect:
Nogrod - the poor thing's ancestors have certainly had bad experiences with SPM, and he himself has mentioned that past. Perhaps that should exonerate him as he brought it up, but I think not.

Aside from that the other person I have some queries over is Oddwen. It has been a very long time since I've played with her and this may well be her usual style of playing, but I don't think so. I'd like to see a lot more reasoning from her. I will probably not vote for her toDay as I would like to see if she plays a bit more substantially tomorrow, but if she doesn't then she is a top suspect.

Oh, speaking of which, Lommy and her chart. Well it's a nice idea, but you haven't taken circumstances into account. Someone may have a suspect who they believe to be the EW, but if there are two bandwaggons growing and one is against them, they are more likely to join the bandwaggon against the other person than vote for their suspect. Some flaws in there, but generally sound. I'm a lot less supicious of her than I was yesterDay. She's been analysing and making some good contributions.

And that's it for now I'm afraid. Except, where's Lhuna? Doesn't she usually appear around the same time as Nilp?

Diamond18

05-15-2006, 10:13 AM

Oy vey. Took me 50 minutes to catch up. But I'm not complaining. Really.

I'm going to have to vote, and I'm at a loss. So many darn suspects.

Oh well, as I'm pondering that I'll amuse myself with the usual behavior that nobody really likes:

Diamond, you weren't on my list of wolves because I can see you getting lynched very early. Sorry, but that's the truth.

No worries. I thought that's what it was, but people sometimes surprise me, so I didn't want to assume. Oh and yes, I am loud and troublesome. This is what got Loki killed. So if it gets me killed I can't really complain, can I?

Consulting my lorebooks, this is what they tell me:

Honestly, Diamond, people are going to want to lynch you no matter what. It's a thing. Don't question it -- some people are just lynch materil no matter what they do, and you're it. If you're quiet, they'll vote for you. If you banter, they'll vote for you. If you analyze and theorize, they'll vote for you. So do whatever you feel like whenever you feel like doing it. After all, the minute people stop suspecting you, you're dog food.

Thank you, lorebooks, you speak truths. Sorry about the fire.

Roa: I'm satisfied with your answers to my suspicions. (Yes, I had suspicions, who would have thought amongst all that banter that I actually said something Roa found worth responding to!) Anyway, my theory about you and Loki was based mostly on stuff that happend in those halcyon days prior to dear Elempi's death, when he got into that fight with tp. I didn't mean to insult you in implying you as a Wizard would pick a Wolf from your friends. I won't tell you that I wouldn't do such a thing. A bit of straying from cold hard logic can always be good for throwing the logic-sniffers off the trail. :)

All that said, I don't think Gurthang cared to deny anything when I mentioned his name as my other consideration. Kind of interesting. I don't think he's a Wizard, because.... I just don't. See Fea's RL reasoning. So I pretty much think, now, that whoever was the friend certainly isn't going to step forward after I made it sound all suspicious. No matter if I was on to something or totally off base. Because who wants to say, "Yes, Diamond, I am that suspicious person you speak of."

Lommy: Babbling, eh? I think this is a compliment coming fom you. :D But no worries, I have a history of such labeling, I've learned to embrace it.

Drrrrrrrrrrr. Blah. It's time to vote, and I still haven't even fully woken up yet. Curses.

+ + NOGROD

*gasp*

I'm sorry, hubby. There are lots of people now pinging my suspicions, but frankly, you did worry me yesterDay. I let it slide because, well, you're my hubby and I couldn't very well off you before Loki. But even though his reactions were over defensive, that whole "banter" thing you had going on seemed... off. You don't usually banter and accuse randomly like that. And a faux paus though it was, posting fifteen minutes early was no indication of wolfishness. From anyone else, such accusations I might not think twice about. But it's you, and you feel different.

There's always the "Why would a wolf/wizard draw such attention to himself?" thing. But Noggie should know more than anyone that him being quiet is suspicious. So this feels like overcompensation. Trying a little too hard to maintain the high profile, without the usual genuine content

I'm sorry if you're innocent. I'll never be able to face my daughters again if you're lynched and innocent. But then, if you're a wolf (which is seemingly quite likely) what else can a mother do besides protect her young, even from their father.....?

Roa_Aoife

05-15-2006, 10:23 AM

Nogrod claimed that his tiff with Loki was just day one banter, but his very first post of the day, while it had the dressings of nonsense, was actually an accusation. Naturally, a wolf learning the identity of a former teammate and an obvious innocent would act as quickly as possible to throw doubt on him, which is exactly what Nogrod did. Nogrod started off the day by trying to muddy up the waters rather than trying to clear him. If he doubted Loki so much, why did he never ask for the "true" convert to come forward? I think it's because Nogrod really believed Loki, and thus wanted him dead.
I also found several contradictions. In his effort to make Loki doubtful, Nogrod said that he didn't believe Loki would be a good choice; however, later on he admits that high-profile players (the opposite of Loki) would likely be avoided by the wizards. The there was this:

I hope you [Loki] rot in hell pretty soon

I'm sad that Loki had to go.

Then, Nogrod makes a point of suspecting the people who voted for him- one very wolfish tactic, to be sure. He also seems quite eager to have us believe that the wizards wouldn't pick someone who was loud, but would rather pick under the radar type players. He expresses this point three times in 4 posts. It seems quite clearly an attempt to throw suspicion away from him. I'd also like to point out that Nogrod was never mentioned on SPM's list of possible wolf candidates, making SPM the safest kill for him of the night.

Also, Day 1 saw very little of Nogrod's usual theorizing and discussion, and while he had quite a few posts, they were of little substance. According to my lorebook, that's something that various Nogrod's of the past have frowned upon as suspicious. And really, while vote updates are a common thing from the Nogrods of the past, that many of them in succession with nothing else is highly unlike the Nogrods of the past.

Caranlondien

05-15-2006, 10:26 AM

Whew, finally caught up.

First, I now believe Loki's story. Despite the sarcastic personality, Loki was proven innocent at the end, and I see no reason for lies. No one else has come forward as the true former wolf.

ToDay I am beginning to suspect my little sister Lommy. I agree with Mormegil's thoughts:
Thinlo: Wants to be very vocal and helpful but hasn't really given much by actual suspicion. She gives a lot of wide sweeping statments that cover a lot of people. Behavior that I would find consistent with lycanthropy.

However, I tend to suspect Nogrod even more than Lommy. He's tried to explain his suspicious behavior yesterday as done in order to survive Day 1. But that sounds like a wolvish cover-up to me. His change in behavior toDay also looks wolvish. Nogrod is my top suspect right now.

I'm unsure about Lalaith, and I guess I ought to go back over her posts (So much talking... :p ) But before she became a topic of discussion, I hadn't found her particularly suspicious-looking.

Finally, I don't personally find Oddwen that odd (a misnomer!). That is, I don't think her behavior would be that likely from a wolf. She gave little reasoning for her early vote, and I think if she were a wolf, she'd know better than to do that.

EDIT: Cross-posted with Roa and Diamond

Lalaith

05-15-2006, 10:36 AM

Roa, Cara: perhaps the reason the changed wolf didn't come forward is that s/he didn't want to die. Because as a known innocent, s/he would have been a prime candidate for eating in the night.
And no, it's not me. :rolleyes:

Which brings me to my Saucie theory, which I wanted to wait on a while. It's more unlikely than the cannon-fodder one so I will stress it's only a theory - but maybe he was the changed wolf. And that's why he was killed. Of course, it would depend on how much the EW is allowed to guide his wolves.

Eomer of the Rohirrim

05-15-2006, 10:44 AM

Roa, you speak much sense to me regarding Nogrod. And, because the wolves do not know each other and wouldn't make such damning accusations (probably) against a genuinely suspicious character, I think it speaks in your favour.

I think I will be voting for him again. Oh, and Lommy, my vote from nowhere? Um...yeah, it was pretty much a random Day One vote. I could have voted for pretty much anyone. It wasn't as if I was railing against Fea and then changed my vote to Nogrod out of nowhere!

It kinda goes against my earlier theory of SPM being correct, but....whatever.

F....f....fe.... ahem. It's you, right? Just a guess. ;)

Thinlómien

05-15-2006, 10:49 AM

I feel the village is dividing into two camps. I predict that there will be a battle for votes between Nogrod and Lalaith today. Oddwen and I may receive votes as well. If I had to choose between Nog and Lal, I'd vote Nogrod. Lalaith feels quite innocent to me.

Most people think Nogrod might be a wolf. I think he could even be the Evil Wizard.

Kath, I agree my plan has faults. I think it could be used as a general guideline. Or at least I'm using it as such. If there's a person I'm pretty sure that she's a wolf, I will of course vote her rather than a random EW suspect.

Feanor of the Peredhil

05-15-2006, 10:59 AM

(Oh, and, if the evil wizard is Fea, these would have been her wolves: Loki, Lalaith and Lhunardawen. I shall support this theory for now, as it seems to be no less rational or irrational than anything we come up with.)
Hang on, that's not true at all. I'd have loved to be the wizard and anybody that knows me would know it, but what with all of my [shepherdessing], I just haven't the time for those sorts of shenanigans. I want no wolves near my sheep, thanks much.

However, this is why it's that much more wrong: If I was EW, I wouldn't have picked them. Well... not two of them. Loki, yes. Lalaith and Lhuna, no. I'd have picked Loki, the phantom, and JennyHallu. One newbie to be taken for granted, one "yeah freaking right", and one just subtle enough to make a right evil wolf. That and Jen's been evil so often that I wouldn't want to break with tradition.

Next night would be morm, next would be Cailin. Actually, I might have tossed Nilp into the mix. I like my variety, wouldn't you know.

Still, I'm dead curious as to why you picked Lalaith and Lhuna for me and why you support the theory of Fea=EW.

Next tangent: I liked the cannon fodder idea.

F....f....fe.... ahem. It's you, right? Just a guess. ubb/wink.gif
Keep guessing.

Here's my afternoon schedule: stop procrastinating and write a story due at 2:15; go to class; work; don't get back until the Day is over.

So I have to vote for somebody.

Since Roa denies being "the friend," I'm now fascinated by her strong defense of Loki.

Why would anybody be defending anybody unless they had a reason? If her reason isn't that they're the friends, what is it? Since I don't have any more time to ponder, I'm going to go with that reasoning. She defended somebody very staunchly and that's a stupid idea in such an unpredictable village.

++ROA

Thinlómien

05-15-2006, 11:02 AM

So I have to vote for somebody.

Since Roa denies being "the friend," I'm now fascinated by her strong defense of Loki.

Why would anybody be defending anybody unless they had a reason? If her reason isn't that they're the friends, what is it? Since I don't have any more time to ponder, I'm going to go with that reasoning. She defended somebody very staunchly and that's a stupid idea in such an unpredictable village.

Maybe the reson could simply be that she didn't believe him to be a baddie?

Sleepy Ranger

05-15-2006, 11:05 AM

Since Roa denies being "the friend," I'm now fascinated by her strong defense of Loki.

Why would anybody be defending anybody unless they had a reason? If her reason isn't that they're the friends, what is it? Since I don't have any more time to ponder, I'm going to go with that reasoning. She defended somebody very staunchly and that's a stupid idea in such an unpredictable village.

But didn't Loki die innocent? As from what I know of Roa she likes to support the one who seems to be under the most fire. And anywho, past experiences tell me never trust a Fea... Now then, unfortunately I haven't been able to read through the entire thread (Evil, evil, evil illness! and also random distractions) but anyway since I don't think I'll be able to get anything reasonable formed before the deadline (or rather my bed-time) -

++Feanor

Edit: Cross-posted with Thinlomien.

Feanor of the Peredhil

05-15-2006, 11:06 AM

Maybe the reson could simply be that she didn't believe him to be a baddie?
I'm not discounting the possibility. Still, I had to vote for somebody and she was as good a choice as any, given the circumstances.

Feanor of the Peredhil

05-15-2006, 11:09 AM

But didn't Loki die innocent? As from what I know of Roa she likes to support the one who seems to be under the most fire.
Yes he did, but nobody (okay, almost nobody) knew his innocence before his death. And my lorebooks are woefully inadequate in the Roa section. The index reads: "Roa - see "Villagers You Don't Really Know."

Okay... I'm really going to stop procrastinating now. Paper... due at 2:15... must write it...

*tears self away from village*

Roa_Aoife

05-15-2006, 11:20 AM

Fea, I thought the reasons I gave for my defense of Loki were quite good. If you disagree, you're welcome to do so, but I'd like an explanation. I'd also like to point out that I was not the only one who deemed Loki innocent. At least Morm and Firefoot believed the same as I, and there may have been others, but I'm not really aware of them at the moment. As for me being just as good a choice as any, there are plenty of suspcions being thrown around today, some of which have actually good backings behind them. Maybe you should check a bit more carefully before you accuse.

And as a notice to everyone, please do not just throw away your votes randomly. We are beyond day one, and nothing has really changed except for one player switching from good to evil. We have 8 pages of evidence. randomness is not needed. Please give more thought to your votes.

Valier

05-15-2006, 11:23 AM

There has been lots of talk today so far....I see I have a vote....from Nilp! I will not defend myself on this because looking at crossposting is no way to find a wolf! Now I did find it odd that SPM got killed last night.I would have thought the wolves would want to keep him around, seeing as he gets lots of suspicion...I have many thoughts on who I think could be baddies, but not much to back them up with yet...I will post my thoughts anyways since my gut seems to be right alot of the time, even if noone notices till after I'm dead...

Baddies?

Celuien
Caranlondien
Spawn
Lhuna
Glirdan
Kitanna
Firefoot
Alcarillo
Cailin
Oddwen
Azaelia
Lalaith
Naria
Eonwe
Gurthang

Goodies?

Diamond
Roa
Lommy
Nogrod
Kath
Sleepy
Mormegil
Valier
Feanor
Phantom
Jenny
Eomer
Nilp

Ok I know there is alot of Baddies, but some I could not put down as Goodies yet so they stay there for now....My biggest suspects for toDay would be....Celuien, Caran, Kitanna, Naria, Alcarillo .Not that I have any concrete evidence yet, but I go with what I feel and toDay I thought of these....I will be around for the rest of the day, so I will have more time to read through and post some more.

JennyHallu

05-15-2006, 11:26 AM

Roa, you speak much sense. I have also been wondering about Nogrod. It also irked me that his voting tallies were so far off...it is unlike him to be so careless.

Thinlómien

05-15-2006, 11:27 AM

I must go now.

++Nogrod

I fear he's the evil wizard. He might be a wolf as well.

x-posted with Jenny

Caranlondien

05-15-2006, 11:34 AM

Roa, Cara: perhaps the reason the changed wolf didn't come forward is that s/he didn't want to die. Because as a known innocent, s/he would have been a prime candidate for eating in the night.
I have considered that, and it's possible. But if it is the case, then they're not doing what's best for the village. The wolves are going to kill an innocent every night, and even worse, they might kill a gifted. Letting us know if our reasoning is going in the wrong direction would help us, and it would only lead to what's going to happen anyway: the death of an innocent.

The voting thus far: (and please correct me if I'm wrong)

1. Nilp --> Valier (Valier 1)
2. Celuien --> Lalaith (Valier 1, Lalaith 1)
3. Oddwen --> Lalaith (Valier 1, Lalaith 2)
4. Diamond --> Nogrod (Valier 1, Lalaith 2, Nogrod 1)
5. Feanor --> Roa (Valier 1, Lalaith 2, Nogrod 1, Roa 1)
6. Sleepy --> Feanor (Valier 1, Lalaith 2, Nogrod 1, Roa 1, Feanor 1)
7. Lommy --> Nogrod (Valier 1, Lalaith 2, Nogrod 2, Roa 1, Feanor 1)

Valier

05-15-2006, 11:34 AM

One thing I just noticed......Was the GW not supposed to pick another gifted last night? I see on the tally that there is only one gifted....Did I miss something?

Caranlondien

05-15-2006, 11:37 AM

One thing I just noticed......Was the GW not supposed to pick another gifted last night? I see on the tally that there is only one gifted....Did I miss something?
The first night, we didn't get a gifted, because the GW scried one of the werewolves. The GW did get us a gifted last night, so now we're at 1.

Valier

05-15-2006, 11:42 AM

OOOHHHHH Now I see!! Thanks:D

Roa_Aoife

05-15-2006, 11:52 AM

I'm off to complete my weaving now, and it is unlikely that I'll be back on before voting closes, so I'm going to vote now.

++Nogrod

And I'd just like to say that if he is a wolf, then I'm going to throw my head back and laugh, because for once he's on the evil side and I'm not! :p (It's about bloody time.)

dancing spawn of ungoliant

05-15-2006, 12:04 PM

Valier, what did you think the whole issue with Loki was about then? :D

I'm not sure about Nogrod. He might be the EW or Wolf, you say? You make some good points, but the reason alone that he has changed his behaviour isn't very convincing. Wolves might change the way they act while they try to figure out how they could look the most innocent, but a Wolf or not, if someone is about to get lynched because of the way he acts, sure it's quite a natural thing to start acting differently then. I'm intrigued to find out if Nogrod really is a baddie, but I won't make my voting decision yet (although I have to make it soon).

Spawn, you misunderstood me. Three wolves were picked by the EW. One would be, in my theory, "cannon fodder". This would NOT be the same wolf that was changed back. Ah, now it makes more sense! I still rather disagree with your theory, but it's not so relevant here.

Roa_Aoife

05-15-2006, 12:07 PM

Spawn, if you'll go back a page, you'll see my analysis of Nogrod, and it gives more reasons for suspicion than a change in behavior.

Okay, okay, I'm going back to work now.

the phantom

05-15-2006, 12:13 PM

but it's possible the pick was extremely careful and strategic, in which case I want to watch for people doing certain things today, because there are certain things someone does if they make a kill for a certain reason.
Well, in going over the posts, I'm not seeing much of the behavior I had my eyes open for, so I'm guessing Sauce's murder has simple reasoning behind it.

A couple of reasons to kill Sauce-
1) My willingness to trust him (not just mine, but the village in general). More than one person yesterday suggested that Sauce would not make a good wolf (especially early), and that was very true. So why let someone live who is intelligent, innocent, and likely to be trusted?
2) With all the talk about Sauce being a likely Seer dream, perhaps the Wolves (or EW) was hoping to render the Seer's Night 2 dream worthless. You see, if the Seer had dreamed of Sauce on Night 2 and then the Wolves killed him, there might as well have been no dream at all. If that was the motivation behind the killing, I was probably a candidate as well. Unless, of course, the EW wants to make me a Wolf late- after the Seer has dreamed of me. Just in case that is his strategy, I would like to suggest to the Seer that you wait to dream of me for a good while. You don't want me to become a Wolf after I'm trusted! Now, naturally if I'm turned into a Wolf I will regret giving this advice because my loyalty will then be to the EW and his cause, but for now (and I hope, until death) my loyalty is to the village and the GW.

GW, if you really want to find out about me early on (in case I'm the EW, which I hope you see as unlikely) and you also want to keep tabs on me until death (in case the EW tries to turn me), I suppose you could make me your Hunter. That way, if I'm cursed you'll know, plus the curse wouldn't create a Phantom-wolf, it would only create a Phantom-ungifted. But only do that if you have a Wolf target to give me. I don't want to be responsible for accidentally killing the Seer with my Hunter gift.

Also, only do that if you don't mind losing a gifted. I doubt the EW and Wolves plan on allowing me to live more than a couple days.
After yesterDay, I should think the EW would have chosen someone inconspicuous last Night. Numbers, not the composition of the team, are probably most important to him at the moment.
I agree. Later on, if he survives that long, the EW will round out his pack by selecting some louder, lynchable sorts, but probably not right now.
perhaps the reason the changed wolf didn't come forward is that s/he didn't want to die. Because as a known innocent, s/he would have been a prime candidate for eating in the night.
And no, it's not me.

Which brings me to my Saucie theory, which I wanted to wait on a while. It's more unlikely than the cannon-fodder one so I will stress it's only a theory - but maybe he was the changed wolf. And that's why he was killed.
That was one idea that I had. I agree that it's unlikely, but it's still a good thought.

All right. Here's a list of a few suspects. It's not random, but at the same time you shouldn't put much faith in it. The only way any of us are going to get more than one or two things right at this point is by luck.

GW: Roa or Eomer
EW: Nilp or Firefoot
Wolves: Diamond, Kitanna, Celuien, or Glirdan
Seer: like I'd tell
Totally Innocent: morm, Gurthang, Spawn

Oh, and one more thing. If some people continue to be super quiet (3 posts or less per day, and not saying much) I think we should just lynch them. They could be a hiding EW or Wolf. Worst case scenario, they are an unhelpful innocent who gives us nothing to base suspicions on. Those sorts should be slain.

Later on today, I'll provide some helpful information for the GW and future gifteds.

dancing spawn of ungoliant

05-15-2006, 12:26 PM

Spawn, if you'll go back a page, you'll see my analysis of Nogrod, and it gives more reasons for suspicion than a change in behavior.
I've read it, and it was an interesting one. I've understood that it's rather your habit to suspect Nogrod and vice versa, so I'm not sure how unbiased it is, though, and if you're a baddie, sure you would make up a case for old times sake starting from scratch? No offense, of course.

I haven't really suspected you, and I'll go rereading your post. My vote, whomever it may be for, will follow after that.

Caranlondien

05-15-2006, 12:27 PM

I'm going back and forth on my main suspects - Nogrod or Lommy? With both of them, my main reason for suspicion is a gut feeling that something is off. I also think we should consider The Phantom's plan about lynching the quiet people; normally I'm opposed to such things, but in such a large village, I can see the necessity. However, for toDay I think I'll be voting for either Nogrod or Lommy.

Roa and Sleepy are going to be so mad if I vote for my little sister... :rolleyes:

1. Nilp --> Valier (Valier 1)
2. Celuien --> Lalaith (Valier 1, Lalaith 1)
3. Oddwen --> Lalaith (Valier 1, Lalaith 2)
4. Diamond --> Nogrod (Valier 1, Lalaith 2, Nogrod 1)
5. Feanor --> Roa (Valier 1, Lalaith 2, Nogrod 1, Roa 1)
6. Sleepy --> Feanor (Valier 1, Lalaith 2, Nogrod 1, Roa 1, Feanor 1)
7. Lommy --> Nogrod (Valier 1, Lalaith 2, Nogrod 2, Roa 1, Feanor 1)
8. Roa --> Nogrod (Valier 1, Lalaith 2, Nogrod 3, Roa 1, Feanor 1)

Lalaith

05-15-2006, 12:37 PM

As far as Loki was concerned, for what it's worth, I think he was someone who liked attention.
That was why I thought he might possibly be someone who had been wolfed under my cannon-fodder theory, because the EW would know it was likely he would do something that would make it easy to get lynched.

I still, now that we know he was innocent when he died, think he was someone who liked attention, and I don't think he was the unwolfed wolf. It would be way too risky for the GW to have had him as a Seer, he had no form, and seemed, in the prelim chat, unclear even as to what WW entailed (confusing it with RP).
If I'm wrong, I offer posthumous apologies.

Thinlómien

05-15-2006, 12:38 PM

Nogrod just called me and asked me to come here and tell that his internet access is not working at the moment but he's trying to fix it. He might not be able to get online toDay.

Bye.

Kitanna

05-15-2006, 12:39 PM

Diamond=
My lorebook (a bit singed but otherwise none the worse for wear) notes that often people are killed to divert suspicion onto those they were erroneously pointing fingers at. In fact, an ancestor of mine was killed for a somewhat simliar reason, prior to her death she pointed fingers at three people in particular, none of whom turned out guilty.
Celuien=
If I operate under the assumption that SPM was killed for getting something right, this looks bad for Azaelia, Oddwen, Alcarillo, Roa, Diamond or Gurthang. I wonder, though, if Alcarillo would have agreed to the wolvish plan of attack on Saucy as it’s a little too risky a position to put him in since he voted for SPM yesterday as well as being voted for by SPM.
Diamond and Celuien both make good points. Celuien points out those SpM mentioned as possible EW and Diamond says SpM could have been killed to lead us away from the real wolves and EW. It is also possible SpM was killed, not because he was on the trail or because he was a diversion, but simply because everyone knows how intelligent he is and he would probably be the one to root out the EW. So he was taken care of early in order to keep him from ruining the EW's plans.
Glirdan=
Those who voted SpM are - Jenny and Alcarillo.

Now, this looks, as Celuien said, bad for Alcarillo. However, I don't see it like that. The way I think of it, I find that this actually speaks in Alcarillo's favor. Why, if he voted for him the Day before, would he want to attack him at Night if he knew that it would put suspicion on him. And if he was one of the two Wolves, why would he sacrifice himself if there was only the two? Now, Alcarillo is a kiniving player but I don't see why he would be as bold as this.
I agree for the most part that this is in Alcarillo's favor. But it doesn't clear him. Alcarillo could have been anticipating the village reaction and killed SpM knowing we would look at the fact he voted for him. I don't have much suspicion for Alcarillo at the moment, but a bluff like this is a possibilty.
Glirdan=
Then there's Jenny who wasn't on that list of possible EW picks. Is it possible that she is one of the Wolves? The way I see it is that if she is a Wolf, after seeing that list, she thought "Hey! He doesn't think I have potential to be a possible EW candidate!"
Couldn't this little scenario work for various other players as well? Granted Jenny voted for SpM, but I think this is too risky for Jenny (and Alcarillo) to attempt so early. But as I said before it is possible.
Eomer=
The more I think about it the more I realise that sweet Kitanna would be a brilliant pick from the EW.
Argh, my family was right about you. Suspecting your beloved? What kind of a man are you?
Cailin=
I'd stay away from Nilp, who is really too insane to be trusted, even after seeming sensible yesterDay.
And because Nilp is insane I think of him as an innocent at this point in time.

To be continued...

mormegil

05-15-2006, 12:42 PM

I'm currently at post 281 and trying to read as fast as my poor little eyeballs will let me but reading the suspicion of Nogrod it seems to strike true to me and I have little doubt that he is a wolf. I forget if it was Roa or who that posted his post summary but something else I gleaned from it is that shortly after there was a suspcion raised of him because of his relative silence he began posting again with renewed vigor, yet he posted little and gave recaps of voting; which to me seems an attempt to artificially inflate his post count thus giving us the appearance of saying a lot but not really sayin much at all. Plus it was him that truly incited Loki and not the other way around. Loki died because of this and I don't think it was Loki that was being rude but simply abrasive in his defense.

I'm not certain if I will be able to get back...I will make my best attempt but to ensure that I get my vote in today.

++Nogrod

Nogrod

05-15-2006, 12:47 PM

Nogrod just called me and asked me to come here and tell that his internet access is not working at the moment but he's trying to fix it. He might not be able to get online toDay.

Bye.

Thanks Lommy! Even though this was a short-lived message. (I had tried to get online almost an hour before I called her - and then, naturally, managed to do it in the next ten minutes... :o )

I see things are moving on again. But I have to see to them first.

Really Roa, you seem to be quite happy about promoting my lynch... *ahem*, I think I have heard you blame someone else for a monomaniac lynch-thrive very lately... And really, as I said before, you should give me at least some credit for not being a total idiot - to which your earlier accusations heavily grounded.

I'll see to them - and to all these other things too.

dancing spawn of ungoliant

05-15-2006, 12:52 PM

Oh, and one more thing. If some people continue to be super quiet (3 posts or less per day, and not saying much) I think we should just lynch them. Right now that would be about a third of the Village. Still, if there isn't a good EW / Wolf lynchee on some Day, getting rid of a silent Villager would at least clear things up.

Anyway, I'll vote for

++Oddwen

because I really didn't like the way she cast her vote toDay... yes, that's the main reason. Also, I could come up with theories like how Sauce was killed because he thought Oddwen on Day 1 innocent, and she tried to make us believe that she'd never kill someone who's stood up for her. She's posted only four times with very little substance, so my vote may be considered as a "lynch the non-contributing people" vote, too, if you want to.

Good Night, make wise decisions!

littlemanpoet

05-15-2006, 12:52 PM

It is a great pity about the Seer not getting a dream in. I seem to remember some talk of the Nights being prolonged if business had not been concluded therein. I take it that no longer applies? I hope the wolves and EW will also be subjected to strict time constraints, that's all.Prolonging Nights will remain under consideration. Until a decision has been made to go from 24 hours to 36 or 48, any activity that is not achieved (told to the sub-mods/mod) by 6pm EDT, will be considered not to have happened.

Another question I have, what rules does our great Seal-in-the-Sky intend to apply to non-voters and non-posters?As has been said before .... (great Seal-in-the-Sky glares at Lalaith) .... with the village so numerous, absent players will be excused by the moderator. The players may of course use absence as a reason for lynching or killing as they wish. As soon as the village is reduced to 12 players, day-long absences will cease to be tolerated and will result in eviction from the game.

The wolves - there were only two last night and presumably they either came, via their mod, to some arrangement, or the EW picked one of their two choices, or the EW may even have made a few suggestions to them regarding their kill, if such things are permissible.Please do re-read the rules, and you will see what is and is not permissible, especially in this regard.

...the J Geils Band....Praytell what lorebook this reference is from? (Moderator again glares at Lalaith)

Valier

05-15-2006, 12:54 PM

Oh, and one more thing. If some people continue to be super quiet (3 posts or less per day, and not saying much) I think we should just lynch them. They could be a hiding EW or Wolf. Worst case scenario, they are an unhelpful innocent who gives us nothing to base suspicions on. Those sorts should be slain

I for one completely disagree with this! I am a quiet villager, so are some of the others, but this does not make me unhelpful! I find this game in particular hard to keep up with, but according to my lorebooks my ancestors were always reserved in posting, but almost always made good choices when it came to wolf catching....in fact I find here *points to lorebook* that one of my ancestors actually won an award for being a Werewolf slayer :D I do however hate it when people only come on once during the Day and post and vote and that is it...coughcoughNilpcoughcough This is unhelpful, but posting three posts daily is not necissarily odd for some players...
I find it annoying when people keep posting over and over with absolutely nothing of any value being said...
I for one usual don't say much, and am not so good at figuring out how or why I suspect someone, but it ususal turns out for the better, so please do not lynch people just because they don't post enough for your liking

Kath

05-15-2006, 01:13 PM

phantom please don't try to lynch those who don't post all that often. I make few posts but try to get my feelings and ideas across in those. Just because I speak less than you doesn't mean my ideas are less valid and I should be lynched. Posting once a day just to vote with no reasoning would be a sound reason for lynching though.

Now, somewhere around here there was a list, aha:
GW: Roa or Eomer
EW: Nilp or Firefoot
Wolves: Diamond, Kitanna, Celuien, or Glirdan
Seer: like I'd tell
Totally Innocent: morm, Gurthang, Spawn

I can see where you're coming from on the Nilp front. He didn't vote for himself and has been helpful, which generally means he is something other than an ordo. But why do you assume he is the EW and not the GW?

As for the others on that list I have no idea. Except that morm is of course guilty ;)

And I wanted to ask. Why was it decided that the GW should not reveal sooner rather than later? I realise I could go back and look, but there's so much to read through it would likely be quicker if someone just told me!

Kath

05-15-2006, 01:27 PM

Where'd everybody go? I'm going to have to go now, and I'm not sure what time I'll be back. It could be an hour before the deadline (which appears to be 11 not 10 GMT) but it could be after it so:

++NOGROD

I was suspicious of him earlier and things people have said have only served to strengthen those suspicions.

Lalaith

05-15-2006, 01:30 PM

*prostrates self before Great Seal* thank you for your elucidation, oh one of fearsome bark and mighty flipper.

As for that last glare, oh dear, while I knew this frivolity lark might lead to trouble, I never thought it would actually get me in hot water with the Great Seal himself.
I refer to Diamond's post #13 (unlucky it seems for me) where she referred to me both as an angel and a centrefold.

Valier

05-15-2006, 01:31 PM

I think the GW should stay hidden until they have made all three gifted, then if they choose to they should reveil themselves. If they reveil, the EW would then challenge him/her right away? I am still a little confused over this...(I should reread the rules) Doesn't the GW learn the EW's identity when they come forward? Do they have to challenge each other right away? I guess the GW would want to so there would be no more werewolf making, but wouldn't they(GW) want to stick around for awhile even though they are known? Because they still have the ability to change werewolves back and regift anyone that gets degifted.

So all in all....sorry if this stuff above was useless to say...:D I think the GW should remain hidden as long as possible.

Caranlondien

05-15-2006, 01:43 PM

Just as clarification, if the GW comes forward, that does not give him knowledge as to the identity of the EW. And there is no rule, I believe, saying that the wizards must challenge each other as soon as they know one another's identities.

I'm still suspicious of Lommy, but moreso of Nogrod. As I have to leave now, I'll vote:

++Nogrod

1. Nilp --> Valier (Valier 1)
2. Celuien --> Lalaith (Valier 1, Lalaith 1)
3. Oddwen --> Lalaith (Valier 1, Lalaith 2)
4. Diamond --> Nogrod (Valier 1, Lalaith 2, Nogrod 1)
5. Feanor --> Roa (Valier 1, Lalaith 2, Nogrod 1, Roa 1)
6. Sleepy --> Feanor (Valier 1, Lalaith 2, Nogrod 1, Roa 1, Feanor 1)
7. Lommy --> Nogrod (Valier 1, Lalaith 2, Nogrod 2, Roa 1, Feanor 1)
8. Roa --> Nogrod (Valier 1, Lalaith 2, Nogrod 3, Roa 1, Feanor 1)
9. mormegil --> Nogrod (Valier 1, Lalaith 2, Nogrod 4, Roa 1, Feanor 1)
10. dancing spawn --> Oddwen (Valier 1, Lalaith 2, Nogrod 4, Roa 1, Feanor 1)
11. Kath --> Nogrod (Valier 1, Lalaith 2, Nogrod 5, Roa 1, Feanor 1)
12. Caran --> Nogrod (Valier 1, Lalaith 2, Nogrod 6, Roa 1, Feanor 1)

Nogrod

05-15-2006, 01:48 PM

As I am again leading the tally, I guess I will be allowed some defence.

I'll start with this:
= referring to Roa's analysis on me
I've read it, and it was an interesting one. I've understood that it's rather your habit to suspect Nogrod and vice versa, so I'm not sure how unbiased it is, though, and if you're a baddie, sure you would make up a case for old times sake starting from scratch? No offense, of course.

It seems, that one of Roa's main point is, that I have intentionally tried to do everything possible - from the first minutes of the game onwards - to lynch Loki.
1) That would be the most stupid wolf-tactics I can imagine. Just pure madness. I'm not an idiot Roa, and thence am a bit offenced by your theorizing.
2) I think that accusation fits you even better than me, as you really have been on me from your first visit here onwards (in this game). And quite happily, almost everyone have forgotten, that you were gathering some suspicion before you really ran rampant on me. :)

= Roa
Then, Nogrod makes a point of suspecting the people who voted for him- one very wolfish tactic, to be sure.
Not so. I tried to say, that the people who had voted for me had no good reasons behind their votes and so were ill-informed (or random = Eomer). I never said or meant, they were wolvish votes!

He also seems quite eager to have us believe that the wizards wouldn't pick someone who was loud, but would rather pick under the radar type players. He expresses this point three times in 4 posts. It seems quite clearly an attempt to throw suspicion away from him.
It is just trying to note the obvious and important thing about this game's dynamics! That's the way it goes. You'll see it, as the game continues. No wise EW would recruit loudmouths to her/his wolves in the beginning: with 30-villagers two or three quiet ones slip every radar. It's just more secure to the EW, to pile up more wolves that way. Just look at the DAY1 voting tally, who are there but those who speak a lot and arouse feelings? So who were safe? (Two or three I said? Yes, s/he could do well to add one experienced and skilful wolf to the team, just in case the wizard battle comes true before the EW is ready for it) I'm not sad about the fact, that this will make me look innocent. But that's only the "my side of the coin".

Also, Day 1 saw very little of Nogrod's usual theorizing and discussion, and while he had quite a few posts, they were of little substance.
Somewhat true, but I had no time to it. I only came home late and was too tired - and had drunk too many beers during the day to be more than in for just first day banter (the early day, game time - late night on my RL).

= Morm
I forget if it was Roa or who that posted his post summary but something else I gleaned from it is that shortly after there was a suspcion raised of him because of his relative silence he began posting again with renewed vigor, yet he posted little and gave recaps of voting; which to me seems an attempt to artificially inflate his post count thus giving us the appearance of saying a lot but not really sayin much at all.

Mostly we post as we have time. You know it Morm. The recap issue I find odd also (it's noted by Roa too). And as Roa already noted, I tend to do a lot of them, as I want to see where we are going (I'm going to make one after this just to see, where we are now).

Kitanna

05-15-2006, 01:49 PM

Celuien=
Gurthang has been relatively quiet, which makes me uneasy, but what he has said doesn't strike me as wolvish. Besides, he agrees with the phantom about the wizards, which seems to be a good thing.
Unless of course Gurthang is trying to latch on to the idea to appear innocent. But I doubt Gurthang is guilty of wizardry or wolvery. At least yesterday I was convinced of his innocence mainly because he put forth the EW and GW idea, which makes me think he was innocent yesterday and I still feel he's most likely an innocent today, but he bears some watching.
Roa=
This statement has me wondering- you admit to bandwagoning, but you give an odd reason for it. You were certainly throwing suspicion on Loki from your first post. And your reasons were terrible. I'd have to say that you were the driving force behind Loki's lynching, not after you were on the kill list, but from the very beginning.
Nogrod admitted that part of the reason he voted for Loki was because he was trying to save his own skin (he did say that earlier didn't he? or am I just making up posts?) Which makes sense, I'm sure many others in this village would have done the same in that situation. But Nogrod also went after Loki from the very beginning and the two continued their arguement until Loki was lynched.
Roa=
Originally Posted by Nogrod
Concerning the EW. S/he would do well to enlist people who are not the primary targets / most vocal ones (as they are in most cases the first to be lynched.

Nice blanket statement- certainly throws suspicion off you almost immediately.
This is the same type of statement that made me suspect Loki yesterday. So, this brings Nogrod high up on my suspect list, but since I was so horribly wrong about Loki I am now worried about making any sort of move against Nogrod today.
Oddwen=
++LALAITH

Because she never really loved me! And for a few things that Spawn pointed out, and a few little hunches of my own.
?? She misses the vote yesterday and now out of the blue and with reasons grabbed from spawn she votes for Lalaith.
Morm=
Alcarillo: was extremely defensive without much suspicion cast on him. It seems as if he almost didn't vote to kill SpM last night but was over ruled by his comrades and now is anxious to exonerate himself first thing.

An excellent observation, but I still lean more to Alcarillo being an innocent at this point. Though if his overly defense behavior continues into tomorrow I will have to change my stance on him.
Morm=
Nogrod: Different behavior, a bit less rash and more cautious.
A lot can happen in one night in a village with wizards.
Roa=
Naturally, a wolf learning the identity of a former teammate and an obvious innocent would act as quickly as possible to throw doubt on him, which is exactly what Nogrod did.
So, if Loki was speaking truth and was the one turned back to the path of light, it is reaonable to think Nogrod would want to see him dead. Even if Loki was lying Nogrod's response to him would also work. If Nogrod is the other wolf he would have believed Loki's claim (knowing his cohort was no longer a wolf) and believed he was the changed one. And he plots revenge and as soon as he has a chance Nogrod throws suspicion on Loki and plants the seeds of doubt in the village heads.
Roa=
He also seems quite eager to have us believe that the wizards wouldn't pick someone who was loud, but would rather pick under the radar type players.
I have never been a fan of this logic and it irks me so much when a players say something like "Well, I'm too loud and wreckless to be a wolf" and that is what Nogrod is doing. He names himself and a few other players who could not possibly be wolves at this point in time.
Sleepy=
And anywho, past experiences tell me never trust a Fea... Now then, unfortunately I haven't been able to read through the entire thread (Evil, evil, evil illness! and also random distractions) but anyway since I don't think I'll be able to get anything reasonable formed before the deadline (or rather my bed-time) -

++Feanor
*sigh* The votes of Oddwen and Sleepy make me suspect them quite a bit. (Oddwen more than Sleepy at this point) Both missed the vote yesterday and their random votes today just look like ways to cover themselves from their mishaps yesterday. Obviously no one wants to miss the vote two days in a row, but the lack of reason irks me.

Alright I find Nogrod and Oddwen the two top suspects. Though I am weary of casting a vote for either at the moment. But unless something amazing happens in the next hour I will be voting for one of them.

Nogrod

05-15-2006, 01:50 PM

(I'm going to make one after this just to see, where we are now).

Well, why bother...

Thanks Caran! :p

Naria

05-15-2006, 01:57 PM

If some people continue to be super quiet (3 posts or less per day, and not saying much) I think we should just lynch them. They could be a hiding EW or Wolf. Worst case scenario, they are an unhelpful innocent who gives us nothing to base suspicions on. Those sorts should be slain

Hmmmm, I don't know if I would be one to be in that list of super quiet players. I do try to get my thoughts up, when they come to me, and add to the conversation when need be. I do not have as long of breath as you dearPhantom :p . However, I would agree that those of us that post only once(with very little content) and then either vote or do another post with just a vote and no reason, are being very unhelpfull.

I have finally finished reading through everything and really have become even more confused *sigh*. However, I have gained some suspicions for certain people. I will go back and read over what they have said so I can have a little more concrete reasoning for my vote. Back shortly with a vote......

Nogrod

05-15-2006, 02:01 PM

1. Nilp --> Valier (Valier 1)
2. Celuien --> Lalaith (Valier 1, Lalaith 1)
3. Oddwen --> Lalaith (Valier 1, Lalaith 2)
4. Diamond --> Nogrod (Valier 1, Lalaith 2, Nogrod 1)
5. Feanor --> Roa (Valier 1, Lalaith 2, Nogrod 1, Roa 1)
6. Sleepy --> Feanor (Valier 1, Lalaith 2, Nogrod 1, Roa 1, Feanor 1)
7. Lommy --> Nogrod (Valier 1, Lalaith 2, Nogrod 2, Roa 1, Feanor 1)
8. Roa --> Nogrod (Valier 1, Lalaith 2, Nogrod 3, Roa 1, Feanor 1)
9. mormegil --> Nogrod (Valier 1, Lalaith 2, Nogrod 4, Roa 1, Feanor 1)
10. dancing spawn --> Oddwen (Valier 1, Lalaith 2, Nogrod 4, Roa 1, Feanor 1, Oddwen 1)
11. Kath --> Nogrod (Valier 1, Lalaith 2, Nogrod 5, Roa 1, Feanor 1, Oddwen 1)
12. Caran --> Nogrod (Valier 1, Lalaith 2, Nogrod 6, Roa 1, Feanor 1, Oddwen 1)

Caran! I added the one vote for Oddwen to the tally you had forgotten.

Well two hours to hunt a wolf - and happily lots of votes left. We can still do it.

the phantom

05-15-2006, 02:09 PM

phantom please don't try to lynch those who don't post all that often. I make few posts but try to get my feelings and ideas across in those.
I never said I wanted to lynch those who don't post all that often.

I said I wanted to lynch those who-
1) Don't post much.
2) Don't say much.

If you indeed get your "feelings and ideas across" in the posts you make, then you don't fit #2, therefore you wouldn't make my lynch list.
And I wanted to ask. Why was it decided that the GW should not reveal sooner rather than later?
That was not decided. I never agreed to that.

Personally, I don't think there is a high probability that the GW waiting to reveal will yield rewards for the village. Not getting a Seer Night 1 may have pushed the reveal back a day, but I can't possibly see the GW waiting longer than Day 4 to show himself. I'd like to see him tomorrow.
But why do you assume he (Nilp) is the EW and not the GW?
Because Nilp is evil. :D
Doesn't the GW learn the EW's identity when they come forward?
No.
Do they have to challenge each other right away?
No.
I think the GW should remain hidden as long as possible.
In other words, for as long as possible you want us know-nothing villagers to run around lynching people without the guidance of a knowledgeable, invincible, for-sure-trusted-good-guy?

Doesn't sound like a good plan to me.

Firefoot

05-15-2006, 02:10 PM

Okay, I've finally finished reading through everything that's happened while I've been gone, and am still trying to figure out my thoughts. My biggest impression, though, is that I'm not quite sure where all the votes for Nogrod are coming from, as he seems mostly innocent (or at least no more suspicious than most of you) to me, and if he is a wolf, I'd say he behaved extremely stupidly yesterDay.

The second thing I want to say right now is that I'm sorry if I am seeming unusually quiet. I've been feeling rather sick and extremely tired since about Friday morning, and any kind of thinking pretty much has not appealed to me (and a game this big is requiring a lot of thinking...). So if I'm quiet, that's why. I am reading and following along, and I'm not going to be voting on whims. I'll see if I can't put something more interesting/substantial soon.

Cailín

05-15-2006, 02:15 PM

Difficult, difficult.

I am still reluctant to think Nogrod a wolf, because he would not have been my choice. I know he loves stirring up confusion and discussion, which would just be too risky for the EW. Then again, he might be the EW.

Aside from the fact that I would choose Lalaith and still think she'd make a good original wolf, I do not find her overly suspicious at the moment.

That's the primary lynching candidates right now. If I'd be forced to choose between them, Lalaith would be my choice. However, neither I'd be perfectly happy with.

I'd much rather repeat my vote for Oddwen, whose silence is quite disturbing. My lorebooks say nothing about her or her ancestors, but I heard some rumours that tell of a different kind of behaviour. However, I fear it would be a throwaway vote, not helpful to anyone.

My generally untrustworthy intuition is telling me to look closely at Kath and Nilpaurion Felagund.

Oh, and Fea, it's about the wolves names, not their personalities. I thought you loved alliteration? Lhuna, Lalaith and Loki would be very poetically responsible. Not to mention quite a reasonable team. Yeah. That's all.

I have to think about this.

Nogrod

05-15-2006, 02:18 PM

In other words, for as long as possible you want us know-nothing villagers to run around lynching people without the guidance of a knowledgeable, invincible, for-sure-trusted-good-guy?

Doesn't sound like a good plan to me.

This raises an important question about the rules. If the EW call for a battle between the wizards, will that take place immediately - or "at the sunset" or something?

So has the good wizard time to announce her/his knowledge before the battle takes place and s/he dies? The EW has been granted at least the possibility of the wolves learning each others identity. It would be fair, that the villagers could also learn what the GW knew before the battle - and the death... (not revealing openly the gifteds, of course, but any other useful information s/he has by then?)

Nogrod

05-15-2006, 02:21 PM

My biggest impression, though, is that I'm not quite sure where all the votes for Nogrod are coming from, as he seems mostly innocent (or at least no more suspicious than most of you) to me, and if he is a wolf, I'd say he behaved extremely stupidly yesterDay.

I'm seconding you here - as you might guess. :D

But really. I'm quite astonished by this too.

I will spend my time now on Oddwen (Kitanna made a good point on her that kind of brought her back to my list of suspicions, from where I had already kind of thrown her out) and Roa, at least. Try to have time for some others too, but time seems to be running...

Roa_Aoife

05-15-2006, 02:26 PM

Checking in from work, and I see that this needed answering.

It seems, that one of Roa's main point is, that I have intentionally tried to do everything possible - from the first minutes of the game onwards - to lynch Loki.
1) That would be the most stupid wolf-tactics I can imagine. Just pure madness. I'm not an idiot Roa, and thence am a bit offenced by your theorizing.
2) I think that accusation fits you even better than me, as you really have been on me from your first visit here onwards (in this game). And quite happily, almost everyone have forgotten, that you were gathering some suspicion before you really ran rampant on me.

The difference between what I did and what you did, Nogrod, is that I came in late and had plenty of posts from which to draw information. You started in on Loki in the SECOND POST OF THE DAY. There is a world of difference in that. And never once did I call you stupid or foolish, nor do I think the tactic to be so. It was actually a very good move, and you got most of the village to follow you. It was also a very bold move, and a risky one at that. Niether are things that I would put past you. You've always been a bold one Nogrod.
Not so. I tried to say, that the people who had voted for me had no good reasons behind their votes and so were ill-informed (or random = Eomer). I never said or meant, they were wolvish votes!
Even so, you made a point of discrediting the people who suspected you, and that is the same in my book.
It is just trying to note the obvious and important thing about this game's dynamics! That's the way it goes. You'll see it, as the game continues. No wise EW would recruit loudmouths to her/his wolves in the beginning: with 30-villagers two or three quiet ones slip every radar. It's just more secure to the EW, to pile up more wolves that way. Just look at the DAY1 voting tally, who are there but those who speak a lot and arouse feelings? So who were safe? (Two or three I said? Yes, s/he could do well to add one experienced and skilful wolf to the team, just in case the wizard battle comes true before the EW is ready for it) I'm not sad about the fact, that this will make me look innocent. But that's only the "my side of the coin". And again you wish to put aside the possibility that a loud player could be a choice for a wolf. Certainly, it seems suspicious to continually point out a theory that makes you look completely innocent. I'm not, however, suspecting you simply because you put forth this idea, I suspect you because you keep putting forward, over and over again.
Somewhat true, but I had no time to it. I only came home late and was too tired - and had drunk too many beers during the day to be more than in for just first day banter (the early day, game time - late night on my RL).
Ah, but I was refering to later in the Day. You still kept your posts short, and did very little more than restate what had already been said. Lots of posting, little substance. Always a bad recipe.

Mostly we post as we have time. You know it Morm. The recap issue I find odd also (it's noted by Roa too). And as Roa already noted, I tend to do a lot of them, as I want to see where we are going (I'm going to make one after this just to see, where we are now).
You say you had little time, but you had time to go back and do vote recaps? Those take time, especially in a game of 30 players. And while you may do many, you certainly never do that many. It looks too much like you trying to look active while adding nothing of significance to the village discussion. This is behavior that you would normally be on in an instant, but here you emulate it. You look more and more wolfish by the minute.

the phantom

05-15-2006, 02:26 PM

Well, I have to leave now.

A couple last minute things.

GW- Prepare a code to teach your gifteds. If I'm remembering the rules correctly you can communicate with them. When you see the end approaching and there is little chance of one of your gifteds ending up on the other side as a Werewolf, give a code to your gifteds that will allow the Seer to broadcast the results of his/her dreams to the other gifteds after you are gone.

A simplified example-
If the Seer dreams someone innocent, in a sentence talking about the person, the word that follows the person's name will begin with the letters A-J, and at least one other word in the sentence will start with the same first letter as the person's name.

If the Seer dreams someone guilty, in a sentence talking about the person, the word that follows the person's name will begin with the letters K-S, and there will be at least one word in the sentence having to do with weather or color.

You get the idea.

Teach those gifteds how to continue being a team even after your death.

As for my vote... hmmm....

+ + Nilp

Eomer of the Rohirrim

05-15-2006, 02:36 PM

I'm so proud of you, phantom. :D

I'm pretty much convinced Roa is innocent (just now) whatever Nogrod turns out to be. And that information at least should be discovered today.

++NOGROD

Firefoot

05-15-2006, 02:39 PM

phantom's post about the gifteds speaking in code makes sense, and it's telling me that (toDay, anyway) phantom is innocent. If he were a wolf, he might think of that as being a good idea for the gifteds, but he would have absolutely no reason to post it. That would be directly aiding the other side, and phantom wouldn't do that.

Nogrod

05-15-2006, 02:47 PM

Well. Oddwen is kind of a hard one. So few posts and so many amazing things.

#44 Basic in-character stuff
#97 Says:"referring to our 'lorebooks' isn't going to help us much, only confuse us" , Says will not vote on DAY1!

#262 Points out that the wolves don't know each other - and would like to the wizards done away with...
#264 Votes Lalaith (mentioning in character stuff + Spawns points on her)

If someone would be a quiet wolf trying to stay in the shade, this would be the way it would be looking alike? Who would go on voting with these grounds if there were bigger rows around (especially Roa is making a good work on this, I admit)

So basically: unhelpful with four posts with very little to say. And when she says something, it's against our common good (not looking at the lorebooks, wizards done away with before we have the gifteds,...) And voting with very little reassoning on DAY2, in this kind of a talkative village!

I would say, that she looks suspicious.

I'll try to have some time with Roa now - and she clearly tries to twist my words again as to more likely defend myself against her than to see her own posting. She's intelligent, I know she is. And as she has spent all the time attacking me, there probably is very little substance of her own in the posts. A very wise wolf-tactics that as well. And with the arguments so far, she could always start tomorrow by apologizing, that she was wrong... ;)

Kitanna

05-15-2006, 02:52 PM

++ Nogrod
Roa has brought very good points against him and I won't bore you by restating everyone now, but here are the reasons I have decided to pick Nogrod over Oddwen today.

1) His attack on Loki began early, suggesting Loki may have been speaking the truth about being changed from a wolf to an innocent and if that's true Nogrod's response to plant doubts about Loki early is reasonable.
2) His tactics seem to have changed today and he says he does that every game, but I don't recall past Nogrod's doing that. Maybe he speaks the truth or maybe he was an innocent yesterday and needed to change tactics.
3) He says the EW would refrain from picking someone like him because he is loud. That type of statement had me questioning Loki yesterday. Only for Loki it was why he would be picked not why he wouldn't be picked. Everytime someone uses that defense red flags go up all over my mind.
4) He restates the same thing often. Not a bad thing, but often times that is all he adds to the discussion and is giving us nothing new to look at. That doesn't seem like a very Nogrod thing to do, considering past Nogrod's have gotten angry with others for doing just that.

Cailín

05-15-2006, 02:58 PM

Well, I don't think I can save Nogrod and feel no strong inclination to try and do so. However:

++ ODDWEN

For the same reasons as yesterDay and toDay for the same (basic) reasons as Spawn.

Nogrod

05-15-2006, 02:59 PM

I just love this unanimosity between the villagers... You really seem to have made up your minds now, haven't you?

I can't blame you. This has been such a jungle of opinions, that making a clear and considered argument has just been a nightmare. So it's very easy to bandwagon on one who has taken the lead in the tally. You can always say tomorrow, that you were just having the same suspicions that every other one had. So nice to cover oneself in the mass-opinion. And especially for the wolves... quite handy, as there will be 10 people or more to look - and so the confusion goes on and the EW & her/his wolves grin ever more widely.

Sorry people: use your own minds for a change?

EDIT: X-posted with Cailin

Valier

05-15-2006, 03:01 PM

Votes so far...

1.Nilp-->Valier (Valier 1)
2.Celuien--> Lalaith (Valier 1, Lalaith 1)
3.Oddwen-->Lalaith (Valier 1, Lalaith 2)
4.Diamond18-->Nogrod (Valier 1, Lalaith 2, Nogrod 1)
5.Feanor-->Roa_Aoife (Valier 1, Lalaith 2, Nogrod 1, Roa 1)
6.Sleepy-->Feanor (Valier 1, Lalaith 2, Nogrod 1 Roa 1, Fea 1)
7.Thinlomien-->Nogrod (valier 1, Lalaith 2, Nogrod 2, Roa 1, Fea 1)
8.Roa-Aoife-->Nogrod (Valier 1, Lalaith 2, Nogrod 3, Roa 1, Fea 1)
9.Mormegil-->Nogrod (Valier 1, Lalaith 2, Nogrod 4, Roa 1, Fea 1)
10.Dancing Spawn-->Oddwen (Valier 1, Lalaith 2, Nogrod 4, Roa 1, Fea 1, Oddwen 1)
11.Kath-->Nogrod (Valier 1, Lalaith 2, Nogrod 5, Roa 1, Fea 1, Oddwen 1)
12.Caranlondien-->Nogrod (Valier 1, Lalaith 2, Nogrod 6, Roa 1, Fea 1, Oddwen 1)
13.Phantom-->Nilpaurion (Valier 1, Lalaith 2, Nogrod 6, Roa 1, Fea 1, Oddwen 1, Nilp 1)
14.Eomer-->Nogrod (Valier 1, Lalaith 2, Nogrod 7, Roa 1, Fea 1, Oddwen 1, Nilp 1)
15.Kitanna-->Nogrod (Valier 1, Lalaith 2, Nogrod 8, Roa 1, Fea 1, Oddwen 1, Nilp 1)
16.Cailin-->Oddwen (Valier 1, Lalaith 2, Nogrod 8, Roa 1, Fea 1, Oddwen 2, Nilp 1)
17.Lalaith-->Oddwen (Valier 1, Lalaith 2, Nogrod 8, Roa 1, Fea 1, Oddwen 3, Nilp 1)
18.Nogrod-->Oddwen (Valier 1, Lalaith 2, Nogrod 8, Roa 1, Fea 1, Oddwen 4, Nilp 1)

Nogrod

05-15-2006, 03:07 PM

Sorry Roa, I'm doing this again. But I really want to see, if I should still try to fight for myself - or try to help you a bit before I go.

So:
Nogrod 8
Oddwen 2
Lalaith 2
Valier, Roa, Fea 1

16 votes given... from 28?

We still have time to settle this right.

EDIT: X-posted with Valier & removed the similar tally out

littlemanpoet

05-15-2006, 03:08 PM

Please refrain from asking for rules clarifications on this thread.

Instead, PM me directly.

You will get quicker response that way, and you will also not potentially skew the game by unintentionally alerting other players as to your role in the game.

Thank you.

Lalaith

05-15-2006, 03:10 PM

I need to go now, and I'm not sure what to do. The Nogrod bandwaggon is rolling, and as someone with two votes I suppose it would be canniest for me to join it, but I'm just not convinced. The only thing that feels different about him to me, is that he didn't flood-post on the first day, and in a village this size, I'm quite grateful...

As I said before, I'm going to have to try to find wolves more by instinct, which I don't really like doing. Two players which I have felt uncomfortable about are Gurthang and Celuien. Neither have garnered any votes so far, however, so it would be a wasted vote to go for either of them. I think retaliatory voting is naff, but I know I'm innocent and I think Nogrod is quite probably innocent, so the only option is
++ODDWEN
who I think is living up to the first part of her name and is more likely to be a wolf than Nogrod.

Roa_Aoife

05-15-2006, 03:10 PM

Sorry people: use your own minds for a change?

Oh, like they did yesterDay when you got them to lynch Loki? Interesting that you expect them to follow foolish reasoning to lynch someone who wasn't even there to defend himself (which you yourself pointed out was an ungentlemanly tactic) but expect to ignore sound reasoning when you are the one in danger. You contradict yourself far too much Nogrod, something that isn't like you at all.

And I'm still waiting for your analysis of me.

Nogrod

05-15-2006, 03:14 PM

The one I have the most suspicion now based on some evidence, is Oddwen (I'm probably a bit weary about both Lommy and Roa - as the hunches go), as I have noted on my post #328, basing it into my belief about how the EW will have picked her/his wolves.

++ Oddwen

Trying to save my neck and do some good to the village (Sorry Roa: those two might be identical things: with my lorebooks, you are not used to see it this way... :D )

Firefoot

05-15-2006, 03:14 PM

I am slowly rereading the posts for toDay and have finished with the sixth page. Reactions:

Diamond - seems to be innocent. She seems to pretty much be saying whatever she is thinking, and if that is so, that would speak for her innocence. Wolves tend to have to be more careful. Of course, being that the wolves don't know each other, I suppose they don't have to be as careful, but... we'll go with gut-level feeling that she's currently innocent.

Fea - is pretty much acting normally. Even though she's one of those that can act normally as a wolf, I'm going to say probably innocent right now.

Gurthang seems to be genuinely trying to be helpful.

Alcarillo seems to be getting pretty defensive.

I'm uneasy with Caran, although I'm not entirely sure why. Probably not uneasy enough for a vote, though.

On to page 7...

But first, one thing:

Oh, like they did yesterDay when you got them to lynch Loki? Interesting that you expect them to follow foolish reasoning to lynch someone who wasn't even there to defend himself (which you yourself pointed out was an ungentlemanly tactic) but expect to ignore sound reasoning when you are the one in danger. Roa, I'm not following this. I don't think that Nogrod was trying to get people to lynch Loki unquestioningly. Maybe some of them were voting for him without reason, but that's not Nogrod's fault. It is frustrating when you're getting bandwaggoned on and a lot of people don't seem to have sound reasoning.

Nogrod

05-15-2006, 03:23 PM

And I'm still waiting for your analysis of me. You will have to wait for the unprobable event of myself getting out of this mess now to live for tomorrow - the mess you have propagated, I might add. But you will be hearing about it tomorrow, even without me. And it will be your time to come up with some defences then. I just love the view: Roa defending herself from some very same accusations she has poured over me ;)

But if I'm alive tomorrow, you'll have your review, surely you will.

For your earlier point on my post: see Firefoot. She said it already.

And btw. you don't look good now with your maniac insistence of twisting everything you say about me. But I'm not sure about your wolvishness either. It would be bold, it really would (maybe that's the reason why you interpreted me as being mega-bold in your interpretation? cause you were clinging to the tactics yourself? :D ).

Valier

05-15-2006, 03:27 PM

Still left to vote...

Glirdan
Valier
Lhuna
Alcarillo
Azaelia
Naria
Jenny
Eonwe
Gurthang

I really don't suspect any of the lynchee's very much.....I do think it's odd that some of these players that have not voted yet are not around at all...I will ponder this a bit more and then vote..

Firefoot

05-15-2006, 03:30 PM

Valier, you're missing a couple of people... me, at least, and I think a couple others.

Nogrod

05-15-2006, 03:31 PM

Nogrod 8
Oddwen 4
Lalaith 2
Valier, Roa, Fea 1

18 votes given... from 28?

Valier: your list misses Firefoot...

EDIT: X-posted with Firefoot

littlemanpoet

05-15-2006, 03:34 PM

Thirty Minutes to Day End.

Firefoot

05-15-2006, 03:35 PM

Page 7 Reactions:

Eomer is talking sense.

I have been liking Cailin's posts/opinions for a while now. She seems to be talking sensibly and I agree with a lot of what she says.

Celuien seems pretty innocent and honest. Her analyses look sound to me.

As I read Nogrod's posts, I am becoming more confident, not less, that he is innocent. Maybe I should look more at his Day 1 posts as well, but no time before the Day is over...

Roa is extremely eager to jump all over Nogrod; seems like a "guilty until proven innocent" mindset.

About Oddwen:Just hit me - the Wolves don't know who each other are, this means they aren't certain who's innocent either. Would a wolf say this? I doubt it. She surely would have realized this before, and why would she bother commenting about it?

I am more comfortable with Lommy today, but still not completely.

I find it somewhat odd that Lalaith is getting so much attention. I'm going to have to go back to that post 176 that people keep citing... (citing post numbers is good, people... yeah, I know, I'm not doing it right now.)

And I'm finding the result of this is that I'm not really suspicious of anybody. And I'm not sure I have enough time to do Page 8 justice. Here we go, I guess...

Valier

05-15-2006, 03:35 PM

Still left to vote...

Glirdan
Valier
Lhuna
Alcarillo
Azaelia
Naria
Jenny
Eonwe
Gurthang
Firefoot

Sorry bout that! I thought I was missing someone....Ok well I really don't think the baddie is Nogrod, and Oddwen's vote was weird, but enough to lynch her?...Lalaith has somewhat stood out to me, but not much and none of the others seem suspisous to me yet....I think there are definately at least two wolves hiding amongst the Nogrod voters and the placement of Kitanna and Eomer's votes are a good spot to put them for a wolf....I don't know and time is running out...

Nogrod

05-15-2006, 03:37 PM

Even though Roa will jump on this, I'll still say this once - as it might be, that enough of the last voters won't show around. So it's me or Oddwen now (or very unlikely someone else). Those last voters choose it.

EW would not pick loud people to begin with. There's much more higher probability for them being lynched in the first days. The EW wants numbers now. But later on s/he will surely adjust the picking up process. Be watchful of those who have been very trusted in the first days.

Gurthang

05-15-2006, 03:39 PM

Well, I've again being pushed out the door, and just when I arrive no less. :rolleyes:

So, let's see what we've got. I am suspicious of Nogrod from yesterday, but maybe that was stemming from what other people said. Still, he did seem jumpy and I saw that in my summary earlier. The only other people I thought of are Roa and Eomer, but I'm not putting up another candidate and I don't have enough against Roa. I've got nothing against Oddwen either, despite her no vote yesterday, I don't find it too suspicious by itself. So...

++Nogrod

Naria

05-15-2006, 03:40 PM

I will vote for

++Oddwen

Basically because she absolutely refused to vote yesterDay. It wasn't like there was a RL excuse, she just didn't feel like voting(must be nice to have that luxury)!

Then toDay she gets on and votes without reason, yet she claims that she does have one, but doesn't share it with us.....hmmmm. I don't like it when people do this kind of thing. I find it really annoying and unhelpful to us all.

Azaelia of Willowbottom

05-15-2006, 03:41 PM

Phantom, that walk was lovely. ;) *dodges mum's battledore*

Anyhow, to business. Upon reviewing all that has been said today, I was shocked to see myself leaning, suspicion-wise, toward my own (in-game) father. This looks ludicrous, I know, to appear suddenly and hop on the bandwaggon, especially since this is the second time it's happened. But each time, the people I found myself drawn to, suspicion-wise, were the same ones already set up as a lynch waggon. His seeming habit of voting motivated by a desire to save his own neck both yesterday and today has me a little on edge. He's also getting a little aggressive, which is always a major red flag.

The fact that Alcarillo is getting defensive makes me think he's innocent, at least at this point...I know from my lorebooks that my innocent ancestors also tended to get defensive when brought under suspicion, and suspect that it's purely genetic that I would do the same thing.

I'm going to vote

++Nogrod

Forgive me, father. I hope you can, if you're innocent.

I think I'll go find my...friend the Phantom. He makes me feel safe, even in these troubled times (I think he's innocent, too).

Edit: Crossposted with Naria, Gurthang and Nogrod. (Naria does make quite the point about Oddwen--Oddy is definitely on my list as suspicious for tomorrow, though not just due to Naria's comment)

Firefoot

05-15-2006, 03:42 PM

Not very many of those people seem to be around, either. Some of them may show up, I suppose. But this is a quandary: the only person besides Nogrod that really stands a chance of being lynched toDay is Oddwen, and I don't really think she's all that suspicious. Looks like a lose-lose situation to me. :( Unless you're completely blind-siding me, Nogrod, and I really hope you aren't.

x-posting...

Nogrod

05-15-2006, 03:46 PM

His seeming habit of voting motivated by a desire to save his own neck both yesterday and today has me a little on edge.

Being nicely in the lead of the voting-tally kind of makes you act that way... :D Try it oneday? I had not ordered those votes for me anyway.

But you'll have tomorrow to discuss these things. You'll see your situation then. And be warned about Roa. My lorebook says many things about her...

Valier

05-15-2006, 03:47 PM

Alright I will vote..but I will say if the two candidates tomorrow don't seem suspisious to me I will vote with my gut.

++Oddwen

Only because she is the most suspisious out of the lynchee's today not by much mind you....:rolleyes:

Alcarillo

05-15-2006, 03:48 PM

The fact that Alcarillo is getting defensive makes me think he's innocent, at least at this point...I know from my lorebooks that my innocent ancestors also tended to get defensive when brought under suspicion, and suspect that it's purely genetic that I would do the same thing.
Amen. And besides, you wouldn't want to lynch your future father-in-law, would you?

I'll side with my son Eomer and vote for:

++Nogrod

Nogrod

05-15-2006, 03:48 PM

Nogrod 11
Oddwen 6

You have 10 minutes to change this... enough votes still.

EDIT: Took ALcarillo vote in.

Tomorrow. Be ready to open this bandwagon. You will have some pretty evil guys in it...

Valier

05-15-2006, 03:51 PM

Still to vote...

Glirdan
Lhuna
Jenny
Eonwe
Firefoot

Firefoot

05-15-2006, 03:52 PM

If Oddwen were a wolf, why would she refuse to vote? Sorry, but Oddwen falls into the same category as Nogrod... if she is a wolf, she acted stupidly.

Well, there doesn't seem to be a lot of hope of anyone but Nogrod getting lynched right now (and with the timezone factor, Lhuna for sure won't be voting), but for what it's worth I'm going to vote for someone I really do think might be guilty:

++Roa

Valier – 1 (Nilp 1)
Lalaith – 2 (Celuien 2, Oddwen 3)
Nogrod – 11 (Diamond 4, Thinlomien 7, Roa 8, Morm 9, Kath 11, Caran 12, Kitanna 15, Eomer 14, Gurthang 19, Azaelia 21, Alcarillo 23)
Roa – 2 (Fea 5, Firefoot 24)
Fea – 1 (Sleepy 6)
Oddwen – 6 (Spawn 10, Cailin 16, Lalaith 17, Nogrod 18, Naria 20, Valier 22)
Nilp – 1 (phantom 13)

Nogrod

05-15-2006, 03:54 PM

Nogrod 11
Oddwen 6

You have 10 minutes to change this... enough votes still.

Well, actually. No there are not. Alcarillo nailed me.

Good night everyone. It's sad to leave a good game this early.

But in the next one then.

I was only getting warm now... :(

Enjoy the game!

Nogrod

05-15-2006, 03:59 PM

= Firefoot
If Oddwen were a wolf, why would she refuse to vote? Sorry, but Oddwen falls into the same category as Nogrod... if she is a wolf, she acted stupidly.

Or then just bold enough... :p
... seemingly too bold.

Must try another day again.

And sorry family. Your daddy was a nice person once, but then something just meddled his mild-mannered mind. :D

Go wolves do. Sorry that I couldn't live up to the expectations. Took too many risks -and had bad timing with RL. I know.

Bye-bye everyone.
(And kudos to Roa!)

littlemanpoet

05-15-2006, 04:03 PM

Voting is now over.

Evil wizard pick a player to curse.
Good wizard pick a player to scry.

Werewolves wait until you know how many you are before you nominate a kill.
Seer pick a player to dream.

Day End narration will follow in the next few hours.

littlemanpoet

05-15-2006, 07:07 PM

One of the village's young men spent a year in wandering before he returned home, but did not get far. Rather, he made friends of the Dwarves of Ered Luin and learned all he could of their histories, even of the great Dwarven Cities of the First Age of Arda. Armed with this knowledge, the young man returned and married, and fathered a son whom he named Nogrod, after one of the two great Dwarven cities of old.

Nogrod proved to be a happy fellow, not at all like his city name's population. He left town when a young man, and made his way in the world as a fool and jester, and became quite good at it. Most of his time was spent in the kingdoms of the Dunedain in the North of Eriador, and he made a fine living. When he returned to Sealville, at the mildly advanced age of thirty-five, he brought back with him a small fortune, with which he found it quite easy to catch himself a bride, and not the least fair of face amongst those available. Her name was Diamond, famous in the village for everything haveing to do with carpets, and she bore him seven children, though only three survived: Lhuna, Zali, and Firefoot. As their children grew, whether mooning about the house, or playing about the bottoms of willows, or running fast from trouble they'd started, they were well cared for and suffered no want. The eldest, Lhuna, married well enough that without her to care for, the four remaining family members lived rather well.

As the years advanced, the house was known to erupt in sudden violences of temper and squeals of rage accompanied by the sounds of some stick like implement smacking against something that did not give way. "You know who wears the pants in that family," the gossips were known to say.

On the mornign of Day Two of the Evil Times, Diamond was holding forth just outside her own home, making new battledores while she talked. Nogrod was there of course, and Glirdy was over, as well as Alcarillo. Diamond talked about family rivalries, the late but not missed (by her) Loki, and how much she agreed with "that boy phantom". Celuien burst in, tears streaming down her face. "Why my poor, harmless Saucy?" Diamond tried to comfort her in her grief, which meant keeping her battledores sheathed. Celuien nevertheless gave out murmurings of suspicion, directed at various and sundry persons, including the present and listening Diamond and Alcarillo. Glirdy accused the mayor. After some more deep thinking and referring to lorebooks, Diamond barely stave off the temptation to throw another in the fire. Nogrod finally spoke his piece, but all he could say was, "This looks bad. We're really in trouble." He ducked from getting hit with a battledore just in time, then announced that he was going to take a nap.

It seemed that mormegil had been eavesdropping and took high umbrage at the death of Loki and all the nattering talk that he couldn't keep track of. In good mayoral fashion he put his hands in his vest and with all seriousness declared a few of the villagers innocent. How do you know? not a few of them wondered.

Down by the beach, Gurthang, Caranlondien, Feanor, Zali, Firefoot, and the phantom discussed the recent events. "We have to find a wizard!" Gurthang said yet again. "I don't think we can expect to find any clues in Saucy's death," said Caran. Feanor said, "Just because our ancestors acted one way, doesn't mean we'll act the same way." The others looked at her with impatience, wondering why she was saying something so obvious. "I wonder if Saucy's death is was a subtle frame-up?" said Zali. "This is completely nuts!" said Firefoot. Phantom said, "I have a plan but I'm not saying what it is." Zali looked at him moon eyed and mistily while the others clicked their tongues or rolled their eyes.

Toward noon, Celuien announced that the Salty Seal would stay open for business. The villagers gathered there for food and drink. Mormegil opened the discussions anew by pointing out that Diamond was talking an awful lot. "What's she trying to hide behind so many words?"

"So much depends on who the evil wizard is!" said Eomer.

"I think it's Valier," said Nilp. "I vote for her." And so the lynch vote began over lunch.

Lalaith became the quick receiver of two votes, noticeably one from her own orphan charge, Oddwen.

It was not a complete surprise that Diamond turned on her husband and voted for his lynching. Of course, she had warned that she would be quite willing to vote for members of her family, but no-one had taken her seriously until it happened. Some whispered behind their hands to each other, glancing evilly at the battledore maker. Others aimed an eye at Nogrod and wondered if his wife knew something about him that it would do all of them well to know.

Soon the voting coalesced around two primary nominees: Nogrod and Oddwen. The Nogrod camp considered the filthy, insane child to be hardly a serious threat. "How can such a poor thing turn into a werewolf at night? Or have the twisted intelligence needed to be the evil wizard?" Meanwhile, the Oddwen camp said "She's being a bad girl." Luckily for her she was apparently not being a bad girl enough. The final tally was 11 votes for Nogrod, and 6 for Oddwen.

They bound him and led him to the beech tree, strung up the rope, and set him on the stool.

"Do you have any final words, Nogrod?"

"It's sad to leave a good life so early," the gaffer said. "Sorry family. Your daddy was a nice person once, but then something just meddled his mild-mannered mind."

"Kick the stool already!" cried Diamond, hands on hips.

Nogrod grinned. "Bye-bye everyone!"

"Oh, I'll do it!" Diamond groweled, and came up to kick the stool. Then she shrieked and fell back. Nogrod's face began to ridge and his teeth enlarged. His nose grew into a snout, and he burst his bonds. With a roar he scratched and struggled at the noose, but Eomer and Phantom raced up and unsheathing their swords, they slew the monster with many strokes. Finally he lay on the ground, a mangle of matted adn bloodied flesh, his eyes alone red with werewolf-light. He hissed a last sibilant breath. Some heard whispered words of doom in that hiss. Shivering with the growing chill of the night, even more with the horror of the first werewolf revealed, they shuffled off to their homes, climbing under the covers even though the night was not cold.

~ The Tally ~

One evil wizard
One good wizard
Two werewolves
One seer

~ The Dead ~

Elempi, father of Diamond of the Battledore, killed on Night One
Loki the leech collector, lynched on Day One: innocent
The Saucepan Man the barkeep, killed on Night Two: innocent
Nogrod the retired jester, lynched on Day Two: werewolf

~ The Living ~

Diamond of the Battledore
Celuien the Healer and Cupper
Caranlondien the Sled-Team Driver
Roa Aoife the weaver
Dancing Spawn of Ungoliant the Baker
Kath the minstrel
Lommy the little girl who steals other children's candy
Lhunardawen the jeweler
Glirdan with the giant crush on Kath
Valier the gardener
Sleepy Ranger the former wanderer
Kitanna the beloved of Eomer
Firefoot the artist
Alcarillo the old retired sea captain
Cailín the match maker
Oddwen the filthy, insane street urchin who steals chickens
mormegil the retired mariner and current mayor
Feanor the shepherdess with a love of alliteration
Zali the seamstress and beloved of the phantom
the phantom the loud, unpredictable, adventurer
Naria the servant who empties and cleans chamber pots
Jenny Hallu the unmarried maiden & aunt
Lalaith the frivolous aunt and guardian of Oddwen
Eonwe the freeloading husband of Lhunardawen
Eomer the adventurer & lover of Kitanna
Nilpaurion the ne'er do well hubby of Dancing Spawn
Gurthang the stable-hand

littlemanpoet

05-16-2006, 03:56 PM

Cailín's and Alcarillo's preferences in names were a mystery to the rest of the residents of Sealville. "Theph Antom?" Saucy had asked. "What is that, a variant on phlegm and spit?" "Now, Saucy," Celuien would say, "you shouldn't say such things. How do you ever expect his parents to give you business?" "At least they didn't mess up on that younger son," Saucy had been known to say, "Good solid name from the eastern parts. Where they ever heard of such a name I couldn't say, but 'Eomer' just has a better ring to it than 'Theph'." Saucy would shake his head.

Theph Antom, son of Alcar Illo, left town as soon as he could. He left a pimply, pale, self-conscious teen who always cringed when others would mock his name and compare it to spit, phlegm, and things yet worse. "He'll probably die in a rat hole somewhere," Lalaith had said once.

When he returned to Sealville, the residents at first did not realize it was the same person. Confident he was, swaggering he walked, and called himself "The phantom". Eyebrows rose. "Better way to cut the name up," Saucy had commented. "Has a ring to it," Lalaith admitted. "What that new twist has in it," growled Sleepy, 'is a darkness, something not altogether of the day, if you take my meaning." Diamond agreed with Sleepy, and liked the change even less when the phantom took a liking to her middle daughter.
"He's reckless, arrogant, and altogether too adventurous for Zali. No good will come of it, you'll see," she proffered, or prophesied, depending on who remembered her words and how they took them.

Naria, now, she didn't seem to cast more than a half a glance at the phantom, so busy she was with her own simple life. "Chamber pots," commented Lalaith, rolling her eyes. "Who on earth would choose such a job?" "Well don't you know," gossiped Roa, "Saucy and Celuey never paid her enough attention. Neglected the poor thing, made her think she was worth no more than what you find in chamber pots, so it was natural she'd take to them." "You're weaving yet another odd tale, Roa," said Diamond.

The long and the short of it was that the entire village was aghast, surprised, and benumbed the morning of the new day when they found Naria and the phantom arm in arm, body to body, tight as lovers, lying at the foot of the Watcher rock. They weren't moving. They were both dead. The phantom's hand was still on a knife in the throat of Naria. Naria's now human teeth were still on the torn throat of the phantom.

~ The Tally ~

One evil wizard
One good wizard
Two werewolves
One seer

~ The Dead ~

Elempi, father of Diamond of the Battledore, killed on Night One
Loki the leech collector, lynched on Day One: innocent
The Saucepan Man the barkeep, killed on Night Two: innocent
Nogrod the retired jester, lynched on Day Two: werewolf
the phantom the loud, unpredictable, adventurer: hunter
Naria the servant who empties and cleans chamber pots: werewolf

~ The Living ~

Diamond of the Battledore
Celuien the Healer and Cupper
Caranlondien the Sled-Team Driver
Roa Aoife the weaver
Dancing Spawn of Ungoliant the Baker
Kath the minstrel
Lommy the little girl who steals other children's candy
Lhunardawen the jeweler
Glirdan with the giant crush on Kath
Valier the gardener
Sleepy Ranger the former wanderer
Kitanna the beloved of Eomer
Firefoot the artist
Alcarillo the old retired sea captain
Cailín the match maker
Oddwen the filthy, insane street urchin who steals chickens
mormegil the retired mariner and current mayor
Feanor the shepherdess with a love of alliteration
Zali the seamstress and beloved of the phantom
Jenny Hallu the unmarried maiden & aunt
Lalaith the frivolous aunt and guardian of Oddwen
Eonwe the freeloading husband of Lhunardawen
Eomer the adventurer & lover of Kitanna
Nilpaurion the ne'er do well hubby of Dancing Spawn
Gurthang the stable-hand

Celuien

05-16-2006, 04:15 PM

I can't believe it. My child a werewolf and the phantom dead. Though it was my own girl, I am glad that the phantom realized what she was. Still, I would have preferred her to be uncursed than slain.

I know that things look a might odd for me. I defended my girl on the first day and was hesitant to vote for Nogrod. With a record of defending what turned out to be two wolves, I must look like the evil wizard. I'm not. I defended Naria on the first day of this madness only because she was my daughter. Nogrod had me fooled until Roa's insight. But if someone comes out strongly saying that I am the EW, I'd suspect that person of actually being the EW trying to deflect attention onto me.

I wonder. Was there anyone else who defended them? Assuming that Naria was not a newly changed wolf (and being quiet, I'd assume she was one of the original wolves), someone who defended both over the first two days could be the EW. Only the EW knew that they were both wolves, after all. Something for me to look into.

Firefoot

05-16-2006, 04:18 PM

Well, I'd say that was lucky indeed. phantom, you will be missed, but you have our thanks for ridding this village of another werewolf. Naria, huh? I'd like to know what brought that choice about... I'll be honest and say I can remember absolutely nothing about her. I'll have to go back and check that out sometime. But a fortunate pick nevertheless.

As for Nogrod... well, consulting my lorebooks, yep, my ancestors have had pretty poor luck recognizing wolves too. A family of unwitting cobblers we are. :rolleyes: And my own father, too! What a horrible curse this is upon our village!

The final count of yesterDay's voting:

Valier – 1 (Nilp 1)
Lalaith – 2 (Celuien 2, Oddwen 3)
Nogrod – 11 (Diamond 4, Thinlomien 7, Roa 8, Morm 9, Kath 11, Caran 12, Kitanna 15, Eomer 14, Gurthang 19, Azaelia 21, Alcarillo 23)
Roa – 2 (Fea 5, Firefoot 24)
Fea – 1 (Sleepy 6)
Oddwen – 6 (Spawn 10, Cailin 16, Lalaith 17, Nogrod 18, Naria 20, Valier 22)
Nilp – 1 (phantom 13)

Did not vote: Glirdan, Lhuna, Jenny, Eonwe

It's a shame that we don't know whether Naria was a wolf prior to this last night when she died. Maybe it would help, maybe it wouldn't. But as for people who defended Nogrod and Naria possibly being the EW - not necessarily. Remember, we don't know how long they've been wolves. Not that it shouldn't be used; but it's not infallible. (Okay, nothing in this game is infallible...)

I'm a little curious as to why the GW chose a hunter before a ranger... I would think the ranger would be more useful, but I suppose s/he had their reasons. This time around it certainly proved fortuitous.

Kath

05-16-2006, 04:55 PM

Oh well done phantom! If this were a normal game we'd be well on the way to winning by now :rolleyes:

It seems most of the village will be going back and looking at Naria's posts after this, I don't recall her saying a great deal though.

Post 40:
In character comments.

Post 42:
Answers phantom's question about what the wizards fear - each other.

Posts 46/7/8:
Joking, thanks phantom for explaining the GW and EW and says she's off.

Post 137:
Suspects Nogrod, phantom and dad (who is dad?). If she's an original wolf as someone suggested I'm not sure she would go after Nogrod quite so strongly. A good bluff to be sure, but still. Though at this time she wouldn't have known it would start such a bandwagon so it could have been a relatively safe option. Also suspects Sauce (unless he is her dad, I'm so confused!) as his posts aren't as insightful as normal. We know Sauce was innocent so anyone she has said this about may be likely to be innocent as well. Says she doesn't suspect Loki.

Post 155:
Voted Nogrod.

Post 371:
Defends her and others quietness. Says she has some suspicions and will return with a reasoned vote.

Post 348:
Voted Oddwen because she didn't vote the day before and barely had a reason for voting this day. In hindsight it does look like she's trying not to be involved with Nogrod, and trying to get the Oddwen bandwagon up and running again.

I hope thats of some help to those of you better at analysis and me and less tired! I'll be back tomorrow when hopefully my brain will start working again, and I won't have to sit thinking hard on how to spell right :rolleyes:

Lalaith

05-16-2006, 05:02 PM

Astonishing. And quite brilliant. Well done, good team....

I'm a little curious as to why the GW chose a hunter before a ranger
As to that, Firefoot, I'm wondering whether the GW had got some werewolf sniffs and so created a Hunter that he knew was likely to die soon at the hands of the wolves.
In any case, Phantom was a good choice to scry: if he was the EW, best to know quickly; if he was a wolf, better to have him back on the right side; and if you were to give him a gift, give him Hunter because it's a gift you need to die to use.

I must go to sleep now (midnight BST) and will join you all in a few hours.

Lalaith

05-16-2006, 05:04 PM

Oh one last thing, as I cross-posted with Kath:
In hindsight it does look like she's trying not to be involved with Nogrod,

Kath, as far as I understand the rules, Naria wouldn't know that Nogrod was a fellow wolf. She might have guessed, of course...is that what you mean?

Firefoot

05-16-2006, 05:15 PM

Kath, as far as I understand the rules, Naria wouldn't know that Nogrod was a fellow wolf. She might have guessed, of course...is that what you mean? The wolves do not necessarily know who the other wolves are - but the EW has the power to tell them. I think most of us have just assumed that it would be in the better interest of the baddies for the wolves not to know each other.

Firefoot

05-16-2006, 05:17 PM

No, sorry, that's wrong. My understanding of the rules was wrong - I went back and checked; wolves do not know who each other are. Gah, should have looked before posting.

That's good to know. I had been assuming that they might or they might not. Certainty is always good...

Celuien

05-16-2006, 05:18 PM

Post 137:
Suspects Nogrod, phantom and dad (who is dad?). If she's an original wolf as someone suggested I'm not sure she would go after Nogrod quite so strongly. A good bluff to be sure, but still. Though at this time she wouldn't have known it would start such a bandwagon so it could have been a relatively safe option. Also suspects Sauce (unless he is her dad, I'm so confused!) as his posts aren't as insightful as normal. We know Sauce was innocent so anyone she has said this about may be likely to be innocent as well. Says she doesn't suspect Loki.
Naria's dad was Saucy.

Naria might still have been an original wolf. The wolves don't have to know each other's identities, so even if Naria and Nogrod were both wolves that first day, she could have accused him accidentally.

Couldn't find anyone who defended both of them. Of course, Naria did say so little that she never really came under enough suspicion to warrant a defense.

About the phantom:

Phantom's death last night I think makes it even less likely that Nilp is a wolf (or EW). Phantom advertised to become the Hunter yesterday and voted for Nilp. Had Nilp been a wolf, knowing that tp was a good candidate to become the Hunter, I doubt the wolves would have chosen him for a kill. Or have been allowed to choose him, as the Hunter's failure would have revealed the EW to the village.

Finally, Roa definitely seems innocent to me after what happened with Nogrod yesterday. I seriously doubt a wolf-Roa would have attacked him so strongly yesterday.

EDIT: crossed with 365 on.

Celuien

05-16-2006, 05:23 PM

No, sorry, that's wrong. My understanding of the rules was wrong - I went back and checked; wolves do not know who each other are. Gah, should have looked before posting.
Sorry to be disappointing, but:

The evil wizard may choose to inform one or more werewolves who one or more other werewolves are; but this is a risky option and should be used with great care, considering the possible consequences.

So the EW can inform the wolves of each other's identities - the wolves are just unable to detect where the curse strikes on their own or to hold nighttime meetings while the EW lives.

Alcarillo

05-16-2006, 05:31 PM

My son! My son! O phantom, my son! O, phantom, my favorite son! Your mother and I cherished you most of all our two children! *sob* O, phantom! Now Eomer is my only hope for grandchildren! *sob* But you have died honorably, phantom, with a dead werewolf in your hands! *sob*

*sob* I'm off to dig a grave. *sob* I'll be back for my poor son's body later. *sob*

mormegil

05-16-2006, 05:45 PM

Well I'm not sure what to say. Well done phantom but you will be missed. The GW was incredibly intelligent to listen to the phantom's advice. As of yesterday he was still screaming innocence to me and when he suggested to the GW to turn him into the hunter I thought it a brilliant strategy. However, he will be sorely missed as he had a good mind for these things and I'm glad he picked Naria because she wasn't on any of my lists...her low post count contributed to that.

Sadly I had an observation that I wanted phantom to analyze before I said anything but I may end up being open about it or I may send it to somebody else who may understand it. The way in which I had it worded would have made sense to the phantom and few, if any others.

Also another observation is that the voting record is not entirely trust worthy, as it has been pointed out by others the wolves probably don't know who each other is and therefore may actually vote for their fellows. I realize that this includes me but it must be said. Now a EW may have voted for Nogrod but likely that would have been towards the end which makes me think... Well anyway we need to determine what type of EW we have on our hands and if it's who I think then they may have voted for Nogrod.

Well looking over the list of who I could ask to think on my observation I cannot see an equal to the phantom so I will defer and be plain. I got consider Eomer of the Rohirrim last night, not in jest as I did the first day but in ernest. There are a handful of items that really stick out to me and worth mentioning. He constantly mentions "if I were the EW" I would do this or convert this person, oddly he's been very accurate. He also has been using the shield icon rather frequently, as we know this can be used to indicate some status. It might be coincidence but perhaps he's trying to communicate something, he wouldn't be so obvious as to use the 'evil' symbols but rather a good symbol. Eomer is a brazen character and wouldn't shirk at the thought of killing off his wolves, looking at the vote for Nogrod indicates he did just that. This is perfectly in sync with the modus operandi of Eomer and would make a good choice for the EW for multiple reasons.

1. He doesn't let pressure get to him and remains calm
2. He is intelligent and can pull off bluffs like few others can
3. He is sensible enough to work on his own and accomplish his means.
4. He's a great bad guy

My other suspicions stand from yesterday though I'm thinking that Naria was not the wolf from last night otherwise the phantom wouldn't have identified her. I still would like to hear from Alcarillo on his extreme defensiveness yesterday when no real suspicion had been presented yet on him.

mormegil

05-16-2006, 05:46 PM

Firefoot

05-16-2006, 05:47 PM

So the EW can inform the wolves of each other's identities - the wolves are just unable to detect where the curse strikes on their own or to hold nighttime meetings while the EW lives. So I was right in the first place. :rolleyes:

Firefoot

05-16-2006, 05:53 PM

Hm... Interesting comments about Eomer, Morm. Very interesting.

Would someone mind citing the post where phantom asked to be made hunter? I completely missed that.

mormegil

05-16-2006, 05:57 PM

Post 298

GW, if you really want to find out about me early on (in case I'm the EW, which I hope you see as unlikely) and you also want to keep tabs on me until death (in case the EW tries to turn me), I suppose you could make me your Hunter. That way, if I'm cursed you'll know, plus the curse wouldn't create a Phantom-wolf, it would only create a Phantom-ungifted. But only do that if you have a Wolf target to give me. I don't want to be responsible for accidentally killing the Seer with my Hunter gift.

Also, only do that if you don't mind losing a gifted. I doubt the EW and Wolves plan on allowing me to live more than a couple days.

It stuck out to me because it was such a great plan and I agreed with it and furthered my belief in the phantom's innocence.

Caranlondien

05-16-2006, 06:08 PM

Well, it's quite a blow to lose The Phantom, as he was definitely an asset. But at least he took a wolf with him, and between yesterDay's lynch and last night, I am, overall, heartened.

ToDay I'd like to look closely at Lommy; something still feels off about her.

Unfortunately, I have to go for a bit now, but I'll be back in a few hours to take a closer look at our new bunch of suspects.

Celuien

05-16-2006, 06:41 PM

Morm - you have very interesting things say about Eomer. Those points are worth serious consideration, and I think I'll go read what I can about them.

But if you're right, particularly about Eomer being awfully accurate, what does that say about Lalaith? I believe he repeatedly mentioned her as a probable EW pick.

Diamond18

05-16-2006, 06:47 PM

(note, this'll mostly be in character 'cause I have postively no time for anything else, more serious posting will follow later tonight)

This has been a tough few days for my family -- first my father slain, then, the worrying suspicions over my husband. I didn't like to think of it, but there was something different about him ever since the whisper of Wizards came to our village. When I gave him a good swat with a battledore there was something odd in his eyes. Not the usual submission and obedience I'm used to, no, more like he was thinking of a way to stand up and get back.

While the loss of my husband is a great blow, I must admit that I felt I lost him long ago, and this creature slain yesterday was no Nogrod. A Not-Nogrod, if you will. No I'm a widow... oh woe is me. It's all that Evil Wizard's fault -- he's the one who turned my sweet Noggie into a spawn of evil.

And my poor Zali. Her lover, dead. (My sorrow for his family as well.) At least she and they have the comfort of knowing he died a hero's death, valiantly ridding our village of yet another foul being. Believe me, I know when I say it's harder to lose your lover to evil than to a battle with evil. To think, my husband was one of the beasts that killed my father. The irony is truly, not lost on me.

Okay. That's it. My Zali is locked inside her room crying her eyes out, and I must go tend to her. I'll return later after my mothering duties are complete.

(Oh, and I'm not surprised they killed tp. The EW might have wanted to turn him at a later stage, but he was being far, far too eager to help the village and likely annoyed the EW too much. He made better Gifted material than Evil material, if you see what I mean. I have much more to say, but zilch time to say it in.)

Firefoot

05-16-2006, 06:59 PM

I went back and did my own research on Eomer, and I found that Morm was right: Eomer seems alarmingly obsessed with the EW; he mentions him in almost every post in theoreticals about what he might be doing. Here are a few samples that I found particularly interesting:

Take it as a compliment: I'd curse you if I was evil. :p Notice the smilie... and the other smilies in the quotes. They seem to be remarkably similar in placement.

Nogrod, like I said: To my mind, you would be a good pick for the EW. I voted for you out of everyone on my list because you had a vote already, and I wanted to narrow the suspect list down (like Firefoot suggested). In that case, it was you or Oddwen; and because Lommy (a close friend of yours, I believe) had been voicing concerns about you I thought it might be a decent hunch.

I don't see why, if you are innocent, the village should spend their time slaying those who voted for you. Pretty much every single voter is going to be mistaken on Day One!

You fit my criteria; I am not at all eager to see you die. I must vote for someone. Well, if he was the EW, of course he wouldn't be eager to see Nogrod die. But I know from my lorebooks that Eomer is not at all averse to dispensing with his own comrades to make himself look better - and he would certainly be able to afford it, in a game like this, always making new minions.

I understand the bad feeling about Thinlomien, but in my previous experience, she always gives me a bad feeling. :p

If I had the choice, I certainly wouldn't curse her because she is one of those villagers good at getting into trouble [read: getting lynched]. That's why I think the EW stayed away from her. Maybe he actually did curse her, if he is the EW... if that's so, I would certainly look to Lommy.
My survival chances are among the lowest of anyone in this village: there is no way the EW is picking me to be a wolf.

Maybe Lhuna senses evil lurking somewhere within me ( ;) ) but she's mistaken. I have never attempted to learn sorcery and I never will. Not my cup of tea. He wouldn't be a wolf because he's the wizard? And what's with the wink?
Roa, you speak much sense to me regarding Nogrod. And, because the wolves do not know each other and wouldn't make such damning accusations (probably) against a genuinely suspicious character, I think it speaks in your favour.

I think I will be voting for him again. Oh, and Lommy, my vote from nowhere? Um...yeah, it was pretty much a random Day One vote. I could have voted for pretty much anyone. It wasn't as if I was railing against Fea and then changed my vote to Nogrod out of nowhere! Still using Nogrod as cannon fodder...

I'm just about convinced that Eomer is the EW. He would make a brilliant one; he can be quite a formidable foe (referring to my lorebooks again).

As for the shield he always uses to head his posts, I doubt it's significant except as a tie in to his nick... Rohirrim, Rohirric shield...

mormegil

05-16-2006, 07:01 PM

Wizards, eh? Well, it would appear that someone in this village is especially desirable: wanted by both sorcerers. Who is that desirable? For the EW primarily wants his wolves, and the GW wants a good gifted as well as the EW.

An all-round talented player, who is confident enough to school him/herself in magic [read: asked to be a wizard]

Self flattery and a good show of throwing us off the tracks.

Now, I'm just saying, that if I were a wizard, of any persuasion, I would have chosen Lalaith. She's my number one pick for the wolf-who-was-cured. And I base that on pretty much nothing but a feeling.

I think we should lynch.....Caranlondien? She'd make a fine wolf and the EW knows it. She's sensible, adds to the discussion, and I don't think she'd get lynched had I not put her name on the shortlist.

If I were the EW, I'd create a monster from her.

Well, let's figure out who the EW is. Oh wait, all we have are feelings...

Nogrod also seems like a pretty good pick for the EW. Yeah, that goes for a lot of people. But there are certain villagers who are almost certainly not going to be picked: the usual suspects, the lynch candidates.

I think Loki is almost certainly not worth voting for today and I recommend that people stop voting for him/her. Even before we had the trouble with wolves in this village, we could easily see that Loki is an argumentative sort. The EW would not curse Loki.

Probably not Nilp either.

If I were the EW, I would curse:

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Celuien, Caranlondien, Roa, Nogrod, Alcarillo, Cailín, Oddwen, Jenny, Lalaith or Gurthang.

Others are more likely to be lynched early on, or dreamed about by a Seer, or scried by the GW.

So, it's one of those I'll vote for. And......soon!

++NOGROD

Take it as a compliment: I'd curse you if I was evil.

Nogrod, like I said: To my mind, you would be a good pick for the EW

If I had the choice, I certainly wouldn't curse her because she is one of those villagers good at getting into trouble [read: getting lynched]. That's why I think the EW stayed away from her.

there is no way the EW is picking me to be a wolf.

Why? Can't pick yourself? :p

Anyway, I let the following off the hook: Firefoot (because she's a likely Seer dream), Diamond (who will get herself lynched by being loud and troublesome ), Valier, Naria and Azaelia (the quiet, shady, lynchable types) Alcarillo (as stated above), and Cailín (simply because I would not see her lynched and I would die for her).

The more I think about it the more I realise that sweet Kitanna would be a brilliant pick from the EW.

Here he mentions Naria as one who wouldn't be picked. In fact he implies she's innocent, I believe the strategy behind it would be get a wolf lynched and then be seen as somebody wise and helpful, who he is when good, but when bad...watch out! So kill a wolf...look good and then begin to phase out the strategy. He combined Naria with others to possibly help disguise it.

Well these are the post I found most significant. I think I'm on to something but I would like to hear from him before I pass any further judgement. Also Alcarillo please give some explination for your overreaction today and yesterday.

Oh one other plus about getting Nogrod off, besides being a wolf, it slows down the talk a bit :D

Azaelia of Willowbottom

05-16-2006, 07:12 PM

*dries tears* Oh, Phantom, my love...You've had a hero's death, but I'll miss you...and our... walks down by the beach... *blows nose*

To lose first one's beloved grandfather, to find one's father a werewolf, and then to lose one's only love is no easy thing... Mother and I must stick together now, I feel.

[/in character melodrama]

Anyway...

I must say that Alcarillo is looking pretty darn suspicious to me. I was willing to believe his defensiveness yesterday as an honest innocent villager attempting to deal with suspicion, but now I'm not so sure. His post (which is in-character) contrasts sharply with, let's say Diamond's post just now. Both are in character, but I feel like Alcarillo's is much more the typical "I'm an evil beastie trying to make cover" than Diamond-mum's is.

For some reason, prolonged wailing on and on really hits a nerve in me, which I'm sure is not entirely reasonable. But there it is. At least Diamond's post didn't feel like it was lacking in substance. Alcarillo provides no explanation for this totally in character wailing.

X-posted with Firefoot and Morm, with whom I agree, upon a review--something is rotten in the state of Eomer.

Nilpaurion Felagund

05-16-2006, 07:29 PM

The werewolves will be limited to one kill per NIGHT.

So, we have Nogrod, a loudmouth, and Naria, a quiet player. Looks like all your assumptions about the EW picking from the middling group are wrong!

Think about it: with all these silly list of yours you've shown your preconceptions of a good werewolf pick, therefore the EW would pick someone you wouldn't expect to be a werewolf.

Later, with all of you reeling from your errors, the EW will pull a double-bluff and pick from your list. Standard random behaviour. The best way one won't get caged.

We've been lucky so far, village--some of us here have the foresight to see beyond these things.

Maybe he's picking from the Ns. You've been cursed, haven't you?

Don't be silly.

Feanor of the Peredhil

05-16-2006, 07:39 PM

So though I loathe the idea of this looking like jumping onto a bandwagon, I feel the need to say that Eomer makes me nervous. It could be a heritage thing... a temperament passed down over generations... but everything everyone else said between dawn and me getting back from a shepherdessing excursion (read: school thing) basically states what's been bothering me better than my tired mind could.

Maybe he's picking from the Ns. You've been cursed, haven't you?
*groans*

Conspiracy theorist that I am... why does this strike me as trying to kill the shepherdess with a penchant for alliteration? I've denied the 'L's, so now it's 'N's? :rolleyes: :p

What was my point? I had a point when I started typing...

I give up. I'm going to tend sheep (read: go to bed) early tonight. I'll come back in the morning and try to think a bit more clearly.

littlemanpoet

05-16-2006, 07:54 PM

The evil team picked the phantom to kill. The good team picked the phantom to be the hunter. Werewolves trying to kill the hunter get killed. So the good team was really lucky.

If this raises rancor, I apologize. It was a call I had to make, and it was the same principle I used in my dry runs. I did admit to being a little dicey on how to use the Hunter, so this was how I used the Hunter. Expect the same in the future of this game.

Thank you, that is all.

Caranlondien

05-16-2006, 08:01 PM

Eomer seems alarmingly obsessed with the EW; he mentions him in almost every post in theoreticals about what he might be doing.
The same thing struck me as I re-read his posts. I fear that all is not right with our village's... wait, what does he do around here, anyway?

And what's with the wink?
To be fair, I believe that was because he was talking about Lhuna, his "past flame".

So, right now I'm most suspicious of Eomer. He's getting a lot of attention, and, as Fea said, I don't want to be a bandwagoner, but hey, that's what happened yesterDay with Nogrod, and we turned out to be right.

I'm just a bit uneasy about Mormegil, but I think that's mainly because he hasn't gotten much scrutiny, and I just don't want someone to slip past us. And, like I keep saying, Lommy is up there on my list, too. I plan to go back over her posts, but it's getting late my time, so I might not be able to post again until around 3pm GMT.

Azaelia of Willowbottom

05-16-2006, 08:07 PM

I have just realized that I won't get home tomorrow until one hour after the end of the Day, at least from how it looks now.

This is rediculous, I know. I wish I participated more. And I know that a vote this early looks suspicious, but every vote counts.

So here's my rationale:

Alcarillo looks pretty darn fanged and furry from here, but I think that if we can catch the EW, we should make every effort to do so, because the EW can make 'em faster than we can lynch 'em. I was willing to give him a chance to get back in line after yesterDay, figuring that his defensiveness was just because he was innocent and under fire. But his first post toDay is overblown and completely devoid of information.

Oddwen looked pretty suspicious to me yesterday as well, but after Naria's attempt to shift things her direction, I believe she is innocent.

I'm going to vote for Eomer because he has, at the very least, an unhealthy obsession with the EW. I realize that this is happening without giving him any chance to defend himself, which is not ideal. He's come alarmingly close, with some of his guesses to the inner workings of the EW's mind. I do not want to lynch my would-be brother in law without good reason, but I feel like his behavior is unsettling, to say the least. I believe that he's being far too open about the wizard thing. Sure, I have my opinions, too, but I have, like others, chosen to keep them to myself for fear that they inadvertanly help the EW. He also doesn't seem to be giving much thought to "if I were the good wizard".(though that could be deliberate--he, like others, may just be trying to throw the focus off the GW)

So I'm going to vote now for

++Eomer

I hope you all can forgive me for an unfortunate double case of RLcoincidenceopia and TimeZoneitis, and for not giving Eomer the chance to defend himself. This is not the way I prefer to play, and I apologize.

Should Eomer turn out to be innocent, I think it's fairly obvious that we ought to look closely at Mormegil who got this bandwaggon-to-be rolling.

(Again, apologies, all. I have an extra-long rehearsal tomorrow and school. I'm really sorry. This was unforseen, but will clear up, I hope, by Thursday or Friday at the latest.)

Nilpaurion Felagund

05-16-2006, 08:30 PM

You join a bandwaggon, then include this escape clause:
Should Eomer turn out to be innocent, I think it's fairly obvious that we ought to look closely at Mormegil who got this bandwaggon-to-be rolling. (Zali)Now, I believe your reasons for voting early, but this doesn't sit well with me. I vote early all the time, but I am willing to take actions for my vote, even if another person started the accusation.

All this after:
I hope you all can forgive me for [ . . . ] not giving Eomer the chance to defend himself. This is not the way I prefer to play, and I apologize. (Zali)You'll let others defend themselves for the vote you cast, should Eomer turn out innocent, eh?

We still have 25 villagers. Every vote doesn't have to count. If you were uncomfortable with your vote you should have abstained.

As I said, interesting vote.

mormegil

05-16-2006, 08:37 PM

I'm just a bit uneasy about Mormegil, but I think that's mainly because he hasn't gotten much scrutiny, and I just don't want someone to slip past us.

I tend to agree Caran, but I want to add that we probably ought to scrutinize others too because there are many, you included, who aren't under much currently. However, your willingness to think outside the box coupled with your past behavior tends to make me believe you to be innocent.

Should Eomer turn out to be innocent, I think it's fairly obvious that we ought to look closely at Mormegil who got this bandwaggon-to-be rolling.

I'm sorry Azaelia, I fail to see this logic. If you mean that I should be lynched if Eomer is innocent then I doubt many innocents will step forward with theories. We simply must put forward our ideas and assumptions. It is obvious to me that something is odd in Eomer, now it's probable with a village this size that he is innocent but if we don't put forward our best guesses how will we know. I would rather assert my own ideas independently and let others judge then be wantonly persuaded at every passing theory of others. If you mean, like Caran, that you should look closer at me I fully agree, there are many others whom we should investigate a bit further I simply took Eomer from my reading yesterday as the most suspicious.

Cross posted with Nilp

Eonwe

05-16-2006, 08:55 PM

Wow, this is going surrpirsingly well. I thought we'd firmly grasping in the iron grip of the evil wizard right now, but it looks as if the sun is shining through. :)

Anyway, I'm don't have much to say right now. But I am filing things away for future notice.

Eomer is a tough nut to crack, and I'm sure he wants it that way. Bluff or double-Bluff, you tell me. I might vote for him tomarrow afternoon when I get back, but we'll have to wait and see how things develop.

What morm says makes sense. But I don't like throwing people out on gut feelings, unless they're mine. So I think I'll sleep on it.

Holy cow, that list is freaking long. It's almost 11 here so I think I'll turn in. Sorry I can't be much more use, but I'll putter along as best as I can.

Diamond18

05-16-2006, 09:21 PM

Okay. I'm back. Zali, as you can all see, is a strong lass able to deal with the loss of her lover (a trait inherited from me, no doubt.)

I had this stupendous realization tonight while at work (because, really, would I be thinking about work while working? -- never) and wanted to share it, but I see I've been beaten to it. The realization was the the wolves probably know who each other are. There is the possibility that the Evil Wizard informed them of each others' identities, for his own diabolical purposes.

Let's take a look at Day 1 (again). I am going to operate under the assumption that Loki was made into a wolf by the Evil Wizard, and that the motivation for this was to get him hung. As has been said, he was a likely lynch candidate from the get-go. The EW may well have told the other two wolves who each other were and who Loki was and instructed them go after him. Or, as another possibility, to play Good Cop, Bad Cop with him. Nogrod, obviously, would be the Bad Cop. This way, when he died and turned out to be a Wolf, one or both of the other two wolves would be looking pretty good to the village.

Of course, the Good Wizard put a wrench in things by uncursing him. But perhaps the Evil Wizard didn't have time to change these plans, or decided to go ahead with them anyway.

I do not think that Loki, as a wolf, was told anything about his fellow wolves' identities -- I think this because he probably would have told the village this once he was uncursed, especially since one of his wolvish compatriots was going after him. (Of course, his finals thoughts, citing Nog, me, and Roa as baduns to keep a close eye on, could be seen as a hint -- but why hint when you could just say it out?) Which is why I think the Evil Wizard may have been totally using him as a whipping boy, keeping him in the dark and setting the other wolves on him. What the Evil Wizard himself would have been doing during the Day, I'm not sure.

Morm, quite an interesting case against Eomer you've got. I'd like to point out, though, that his obsession with the Evil Wizard might be due to him being the Good Wizard. The GW, I am sure, is at least privately obsessed with the EW, just as the EW is at least privately obsessed with the GW. Somehow, I think the GW would be more public about his obsession. I'm not saying I think you're wrong, per se... but I'd like to see more Evilness from Eomer's posts than just a preoccupation with the identity and thought process of the EW.

Anyway, I'd like to fit him in with my theory, see if our theories jive at all... I'll have to read over posts again to do that. My theory, by the way, leads me to believe that taking a close look at the way people interacted or talked about Loki and Nogrod is very key, since the third original wolf likely knew that both of them were Night 1 wolves. (I am pretty sure Nogrod was a Night 1 wolf, because his odd behavior started right away Day 1.) If Naria was the third Night 1 wolf, this really makes no difference, but if Naria was turned on either Night 2 or Night 3, that means one of the original wolves is still around.

Diamond18

05-16-2006, 09:28 PM

Gurthang

05-16-2006, 09:54 PM

Excellent work, phantom! May your heroic death be sung forever!

What morm says makes sense.

I hate to say this, but I don't agree. I mean, I feel uneasy about Eomer, too, but I usually do. He seemed overly eager to convince us he isn't a wolf, and I'll give this to you, morm, Eomer is a great bad guy like you said.

But I don't like this too much:

Well looking over the list of who I could ask to think on my observation I cannot see an equal to the phantom so I will defer and be plain. I got consider Eomer of the Rohirrim last night, not in jest as I did the first day but in ernest. There are a handful of items that really stick out to me and worth mentioning. He constantly mentions "if I were the EW" I would do this or convert this person, oddly he's been very accurate. He also has been using the shield icon rather frequently, as we know this can be used to indicate some status. It might be coincidence but perhaps he's trying to communicate something, he wouldn't be so obvious as to use the 'evil' symbols but rather a good symbol. Eomer is a brazen character and wouldn't shirk at the thought of killing off his wolves, looking at the vote for Nogrod indicates he did just that. This is perfectly in sync with the modus operandi of Eomer and would make a good choice for the EW for multiple reasons.

Okay, mainly it's the icon argument. I think it's completely ridiculous. The Evil Wizard would have no need to 'indicate some status'. That'd be like a werewolf giving a hint to his furriness. I just don't see Eomer doing that.

You may be right about him always being right with his "if I were the EW" comments, but I'd point to the same argument above. If he was the Evil Wizard, he'd have no reason to say what he was doing. It'd be stupid. Maybe a bold bluff, but way too bold if you ask me.

I'm not saying Eomer is innocent, but I am quite surprised by this sudden tidal wave of support for his death. Your case seems a bit trumped up, morm, although I do like that you used a lot of his quotes. I would like a few more comments on them, though.

As far as other suspects go, I agree that Alcarillo is not acting normal. His first post toDay was nonsense. Maybe he was just having some fun, but it doesn't look good combined with yesterday. I'm also a little concerned with Lhuna's absence; and this vote from Azaelia doesn't sit right at all.

Alcarillo

05-16-2006, 10:42 PM

Cross posted with this and this only raises my suspicion of him. Look at the extreme overreaction.
I must say that Alcarillo is looking pretty darn suspicious to me. I was willing to believe his defensiveness yesterday as an honest innocent villager attempting to deal with suspicion, but now I'm not so sure. His post (which is in-character) contrasts sharply with, let's say Diamond's post just now. Both are in character, but I feel like Alcarillo's is much more the typical "I'm an evil beastie trying to make cover" than Diamond-mum's is.
As far as other suspects go, I agree that Alcarillo is not acting normal. His first post toDay was nonsense. Maybe he was just having some fun, but it doesn't look good combined with yesterday.
Relax, relax... it was just a bit of role-playing. You aren't going to lynch me because of that, are you? Just a bit of fun.
Also Alcarillo please give some explination for your overreaction today and yesterday.
If by yesterday's "overreaction" you mean my spirited defense, then I'll explain. Saucepan Man and I had exchanged votes on the first day, so naturally his death would point at me as a double-bluffing wolf, as some of you accused. If my defense seemed overeager, I suppose it was, but fingers across the village were pointing at me. I was the topic of debate, and I just wanted to dispel the dangerous rumors.

Diamond18

05-16-2006, 10:47 PM

A warning -- the following post is all quotes and links of/to Day 1 posts dealing with Loki and Nogrod. I’m providing it as a record of the overview I did -- I thought about not posting it and just posting my conclusions, but thought that some people might want to have some kind of visual aid to go with my summation. So, if you don’t think you need/want to read any posts from Day 1 again, skip this post and go directly to my next post which will contain my opinions.

Going to have to watch this Loki fellow I think, certainly a snapper!

Now, that Loki, he's a pretty shady character.

I ranted at Loki a bit here (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=467309&postcount=25) -- linking rather than pasting since it was longish. I’ll do that for all other longish passages.

Firefoot agrees with me here (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=467311&postcount=26) and goes on to express doubts about his claim of being cursed and uncursed.

My thoughts on the claim here. (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=467314&postcount=28)

I'm not sure. Loki's...ahem...self-assuredness isn't entirely inconsistent with his legendary debates with the phantom. His behavior today certainly set off alarm bells for me, but because it is sort of what I expected to see, I'd rather adopt a wait and see attitude for my part.

I reply to Celuien and Nogrod about their comments on Loki here. (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=467318&postcount=30)

Gurthang points us to a post Loki made elsewhere on the forum, by linking to a post which links to that post:

Wow, that was a mouthful. But I do have a bit more to say, although you'll have to read it here. (http://www.forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=467317&postcount=3173)

Okay, I’m going to ignore SpM and tp’s posts because they’re dead and innocent.

I doubt that Loki would have been a great choice for the Evil Wizard.
Well, usually the villagers are ready to give a newcomer the benefit of doubt, a Seer won't usually bother to dream of someone completely new and depending on who the Wizards are, I think it's possible that the idea of making Loki a Wolf intrigued the EW. However, if Loki speaks the truth, I don't have a clue. I could presume that even if he was chosen by the EW, he's not necessarily the one that the GW chose, too.

I agree with all those who believe that Loki is quiet...what's the word I'm looking for? Ahh! Yes! Shady.
I doubt that Loki would have been a great choice for the Evil Wizard.
I actually must differ on this. Because Loki is a newcommer, it is quite possible that the EW wanted to give him the benefit of the doubt and let him try his hand at having a special role. The GW could very well have predicted this and decided to change him back for this. However, can we take his word that he was the un-changed one? Because I really don't think I can. He's been a little too offensive and all over rules of the game. This makes me very uneasy about him.

+ + LOKI

Maybe he's the one scried by the GW, but then again, maybe he ain't.

Frankly, there is no one else at this early point that I'd rather see gone. Without more than niggling suspicions I don't feel comfortable campaigning for the death of any of my family and friends, so yes, Loki is getting the outsider vote. I'd give him the benefit of the doubt (I've never voted for a first timer before) if it weren't for his general churlishness.

I have had a few thoughts: In the first post, Loki claimed to be the reclaimed wolf, but SPM, you didn't even mention that in your "lists", making up three possible wolf teams that did not include Loki at all. That struck me as odd, if not a little careless coming from you. My poor Celuien! Whyever did she marry you?

Kitanna speaks about the Loki matter at some length here. (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=467447&postcount=90)

My own suspicions? Well, Loki's behavior seems strange. By "strange behavior", just to clarify, I mean the subtley made claim that he was cursed and un-cursed, and his somewhat abrasive reactions to people's passing comments. However, my suspicions of him may be mainly just because I can't find anyone else to suspect. He's the only one who has really stood out so far, and that itself casts him in slightly a better light, as it would be risky for a wolf to stand out that way.

A bit of a response from Spawn to Jenny about the SpM/Loki matter here. (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=467455&postcount=93)

I also must say that I do not really understand your reasoning concerning Loki, Celuien. If sowing confusion purposedly is not reason enough to get you lynched on Day one, what is?

Loki's attitude is an obvious one. In the past such extreme defensiveness over the slightest little thing has been viewed as suspicious behaviour. Also, his continual repetition about the EW being most likely to choose him because he's a newbie sent up flags. You've pointed it out once, ok, but to do it two or three times and make a big thing of it? I just thought it odd.

*I'm not going to touch the Loki bandwagon. Loki will have to sort himself out, and i want no part in it. There are pros and cons for either wizard scrying/cursing him, so there is no conlusive conclution that can be reached. As always, there are bluffs, double-bluffs, triple-bluffs, and nth-bluffs, so play it by ear, is waht I say.

Now I forget who said it, but someone talked about the "Loki Bandwagon". Not much of a bandwagon yet, as he(/she) has only one vote. I'll admit, he(/she) has come under significant suspicion toDay, but that's really his(/her) own doing. If we do end up lynching him(.../her...), it would be far less random than some of the Day 1 bandwagonning I've read about in my lorebooks.

Left without any other major suspects, and given that I must vote now, that is how I shall cast my vote. I don't mean to start a bandwagon that werewolves can easily hide in, but I don't know whom else to suspect.

++Loki

Loki is completely weird and I'd like to lynch him since he's only creating confusion, but I'm not sure if I believe in his lycantrophy/evilwizardness so much that I'd waste my vote on him.

- There are some people that I would like to see reappearing (see the non-posters and the people with 1-3) posts. Especially Loki. I would like to hear more about him.

Naria has some very (considering her wolvishness) interesting things to say about Loki and Nogrod here. (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=467535&postcount=137) Of course, we don’t know if she was even a wolf at that point.

Lommy voices strong suspicion of Nogrod here. (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=467539&postcount=140)

Ceulien gives more thoughts on the matter here. (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=467541&postcount=142)

Eomer talks about not wanting to vote Loki here. (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=467542&postcount=143)

I can see Eomer's point about the EW not choosing Loki due to his argumentative style, which was already evident before the game even began. It would be a dangerous move since Loki was bound to draw suspicion. Of course it could be a very clever bluff etc. but that's just too confusing right now! However, I would like to hear a bit more from him, as since those contentious posts this morning he hasn't said a word.

Thoughts on Nogrod from Lommy here. (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=467554&postcount=153)

++Nogrod

I am very worried about him(as I stated above). Whether he is a wolf or the EW we need to know sooner than later.

++NOGROD

Take it as a compliment: I'd curse you if I was evil.

Lommy votes for Nogrod here. (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=467560&postcount=158)

++LOMMY

She is far too eager to kill off Nogrod, with very shoddy reasoning. The double vote isn't suspicious, her computer was probably playing up, but her glee at the idea of bumping Nogrod off is. Plus, he isn't even her real suspect!

++LOKI

Because I have two conflicting opinions and I don't like either of them.

Either he's a newbie and is going to get himself hurt or he's too smart for his own good and is manipulating us. That and I've got nobody better to attack right now.

Roa’s thoughts on the matter (& her first post of the game) are here. (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=467582&postcount=174)

++LOKI

Because that fits in with my cannon fodder theory.

Celuien analyzes here. (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=467591&postcount=181)

About Nogrod, I haven't had the chance to get to know him well so I have to trust other people's word on this which I hate doing since I can't know if they're on the Evil side or not. However, I, too, had the impression that he's usually more vocal and in the center of events. If he's been busy as he says, it explains quite a lot, though.

Loki seems to be in calmer mood than earlier and I find that kind of soothing although that's what any Wolf would do under suspicion.

Eomer on Nogrod here. (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=467599&postcount=188)

Nogrod: I think he has been a little odd, but I still think he is innocent...as of now anyways...According to my lore book, he tends to be suspected a lot and is often lynched..so I don't think he would make a good baddie in the eyes of the EW.

Loki: It irritates me when people have rash behaviors towards others, and all the I told you so's were unnecessary. The vote for Nogrod suggest an easy vote for someone to prevent his own death, as the majority is for lynching Nogrod.

but today I will go with my sister Fea on this one and vote for the newbie..sorry, but overly abrasive people are no fun to play with!

++Loki

++ Loki
As I said earlier today his first few posts gave me an uneasy feeling.

I am, obviously, the best pick(And, being newest to the forums) and least suspicious of the group. Chances are good that I would not have been considered to be anything evil and wrong... just yet
That comment is really what has me worried the most. I just feel like he's trying to lead us to completely believe that since he is new there is no why he's the one we're looking for.

Zali’s vote for Loki w/reasoning here. (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=467615&postcount=196)

ToDay's voting seems to be culminating around Loki, Lommy and Nogrod, but since I haven't been suspecting any of them very seriously, I feel disqualified deciding who of them should die, especially since I don't have time (nor can stay awake) for analysing them myself.

Roa gives more thoughts and votes for Nogrod here. (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=467621&postcount=200)

I'll be sorry to see you go so soon, Loki. While I still have my doubts about your GW pick story, I don't think you're a wolf.

If you are a wolf, then good riddance, but I have a feeling this isn't going to be the case.

And even though this was really tedious and I want to go bang my head against a brick wall now, I will post again shortly with what all this tells me.

Diamond18

05-16-2006, 11:50 PM

Okay... operating under the assumption that the Evil Wizard told Nogrod and one other wolf the identity of the three wolves, and that either:

(A) Instructed Nogrod and the other wolf to attack Loki
(B) Instructed Nogrod to attack and the other wolf to defend
(C) Instructed Nogrod to attack and the other wolf to ignore

These aren't the only possibilities, of course. It's possible that even knowing identities, the wolves acted more or less independant of any EW instruction, but this isn't my theory. I'm looking for a way to support or disprove the three options above.

The people who weighed in on Loki/Nogrod one way or the other were:

Kath, Diamond, Firefoot, Celuien, Gurthang, Spawn, Glirdan, Nilp, Jenny, Kitanna, Caran, Cailín, Lommy, Naria, Eomer, Fea, Roa, Lal, Valier, and Zali. (Plus tp and SpM, proven innocent.)

Of these people, those against Loki were:

Diamond, Celuien, Caran, Fea, Lal, Valier, Kitanna, Zali

Those against Nogrod:

Nilp, Naria, Eomer, Lommy, Roa

Which leaves Firefoot (voted Lommy), Gurthang (also Lommy), Spawn (Lhuna), Glirdan (Oddwen), Jenny (SpM), Cailín (Oddwen) -- as talkers but not voters.

People who didn't say a word about it were:

Sleepy, Lhuna, Eonwe, Oddwen, Alcarillo, and Morm.

Assuming option (A) is true:

The most suspicious looking perseon right now, I would say, would be Diamond. That's me. (Duh.) I got on Loki's case early and voted for him first. Celuien seems to be a more subtle Loki-attacker, however, which makes me look askance at her. (Especially since I know I'm innocent, so whoever looks second-worse than me is first in my view.) Fea also is seeming shifty. The others who voted more or less seem to have joined the bandwagon. Then there's Firefoot and Spawn who spoke against Loki but didn't vote -- maybe avoiding getting their hands dirty but still working to shift the village's view.

Assuming option (B) is true:

Then Roa is a wolf and we should lynch her without blinking. Okay, okay, no. It could mean that Naria was an original wolf, instead. Either way, it looks bad for Eomer, indicating he may be the Evil Wizard, joining wolf-Roa in being the Good Cop. All the more reason, too, for him to vote against Nogrod the next Day.

Assuming option (C) is true:

Things are rather a bit murky, since it's harder to tell who among those who either ignored the issue altogether or at least voted another way had any specific reason. A lot of those people barely even posted or weren't around. Morm came out strongly defending Loki on Day 2 -- but that's a day late and a dollar short for mattering any.

Final conclusions:

While I am not altogether impressed with my theory after reviewing Day 1, I'm still putting Celuien and Roa on a must watch closely memo to myself and the whole village. Alas, I'm getting right bloody tired and the thought of now combing over posts from Day 2 to be downright suicide inducing.

Diamond18

05-17-2006, 12:02 AM

I also think that, if the wolves knew about each other, anyone who stressed about the wolves not knowing each other and therefore not leaving packish clues, might likely be a wolf. I'll be making note of whenever people brought this up to gauge the suspiciousness of how they spoke about it, and what prompted their talking about it.

I had wanted to do this, but the other stuff took up too much time and energy. If anyone else thinks this might be an interesting thing to analyze, go ahead. I am almost sure I remember Nogrod making a big deal out of it at one point, but since my last perusal was with an eye for people talking about Nogrod or Loki, I kind of skipped over his posts so I'm not sure if I'm remembering correctly.

It seems I'm the only one around right now -- why oh why does everyone talk like the wind when I'm sleeping or working but when I'm home and looking to talk everyone goes quiet....? :rolleyes: Oh well, I'll see you tomorrow when I return to vote. It'll probably be the usual deal -- I'll try to catch up before I'm off to the battledore shop, and will likely only have time to make one post and vote at that time.

mormegil

05-17-2006, 12:51 AM

Okay I did a brief read of all of Alcarillo's posts and wanted to make a couple of comments on them.

Relax, relax... it was just a bit of role-playing. You aren't going to lynch me because of that, are you? Just a bit of fun.

Now in my reading I would estimate that at least half of what you said is role playing. A bit too much for my tastes as it gives us very little to go on to judge your character. It's too easy a shield to hide behind. You've given very little by way of substance.

If by yesterday's "overreaction" you mean my spirited defense, then I'll explain. Saucepan Man and I had exchanged votes on the first day, so naturally his death would point at me as a double-bluffing wolf, as some of you accused. If my defense seemed overeager, I suppose it was, but fingers across the village were pointing at me. I was the topic of debate, and I just wanted to dispel the dangerous rumors.

Again an extreme overreaction to some queries. I reread that section and really only Celuien brought up suspicion of you and actually you were defended by both Glirdan and Diamond before your so called 'spirited' defense. I think you know of the kill and got a bit hyperactive and couldn't handle the pressure.

I was the topic of debate, and I just wanted to dispel the dangerous rumors

Again overreacting on this point, your name was obviously mentioned, as it should have been but I don't think you were the topic of debate.

Alcarillo, with the combination of overreacting, role playing in excess and posting little of substance you fit the mold of what I would consider lupine.

Gurthang you bring up good points and I concede that I may be wrong but I feel Eomer worth looking into because he's too dangerous to leave alone for too long. Now the bold arguement doesn't hold water...this rougue would bluff his way out of anything because in his mind the safest way is the most risky...if that makes sense.

Well it's time to retire but I hope to hear from Eomer soon and more from Alcarillo but more than likely my vote will swing that way. Where has Thinlo gone? She's normally here 24/7 it seems.

Diamond18

05-17-2006, 01:12 AM

Aha!

But we have a second downside here too. As the wolves (probably) don't know each other, we can't track their mutual posting! That struck me today. We are totally at loss with any wolf-scheming, if they do not know each other. In many games I've been in, we have had lots of material to speculate over, as we have thought about them as werecreatures making comments while knowing each other - and knowing the innocents. That has lead to a many a wolf's death, but now we probably don't have that chance (or then the EW is a stupid person).

So. No steady roles (one might be converted in the middle of the game), no wolf-talk in the game (as they can't do it)... That's looking bad, as I said this earlier in the discussion thread (agreeing with Loki here). We are really in trouble.

Yeah, I was going to bed, but it kept nagging at me so I looked it up. In that same post, he also went on about the EW picking players who are quiet to be wolves -- which, obviously, would have discounted him! So we know Nog was all about stating the opposite of truth at that point. The question is, did anyone else make similar posts talking up the importance of the Wolves not knowing each other?

Cailín

05-17-2006, 01:26 AM

My phantom... I am so proud of you. You did indeed die a hero's dead and you will be sorely missed. I know I wasn't always nice to you, but... *sniff* I loved you dearly.

A mother just lost her child and now you start attacking both her husband and her other son? How terribly heartless! I must say I can see some reason in the attacks on Eomer, though let me tell you that being mysterious is just one of his ways. Ever since he was a little child, I only understood half of what he says. Apparently because he's smarter than me, or something (ha! as if).

But seriously, though I do believe caution is in order and Eomer would indeed make a formidable opponent (as my ancestors know well) I would not like to see this premature bandwagon going any further. I'd love to hear what he has to say for himself, first.

As for my husband, Alcarillo... He has not contributed much to the general discussion, admittedly. There are more, however. I am not yet convinced.

The question is, did anyone else make similar posts talking up the importance of the Wolves not knowing each other?

I can answer that: I did and I think Oddwen might have mentioned it as well. I do not find it of much significance, however, since I still believe the wolves were unaware of each other's identity.

Short post, as I have to leave now. I will check back soon with my own observations.

dancing spawn of ungoliant

05-17-2006, 03:24 AM

I know that things look a might odd for me. I defended my girl on the first day and was hesitant to vote for Nogrod. With a record of defending what turned out to be two wolves, I must look like the evil wizard. I'm not. I defended Naria on the first day of this madness only because she was my daughter. Nogrod had me fooled until Roa's insight. But if someone comes out strongly saying that I am the EW, I'd suspect that person of actually being the EW trying to deflect attention onto me.

I wonder. Was there anyone else who defended them? Assuming that Naria was not a newly changed wolf (and being quiet, I'd assume she was one of the original wolves), someone who defended both over the first two days could be the EW. Only the EW knew that they were both wolves, after all. Something for me to look into.Okay, this is the weirdest post I've seen - I don't even know where to start with it.

1) No one has really suspected Celuien yet. She's made appearances on quite a few "possible EW picks" lists, but anyone hasn't made a case against her. Why this sudden need to defend herself?

2) Over than a half of the villagers did not vote for Nogrod. Why would this look remarkably bad just for Celuien then? Because she happened to defend Naria, too? A lot of people make mistakes, but if you freak out and start explaining your actions even before anyone has suspected you, it looks weird to me.

3) So, the EW is likely to be someone who has acted like Celuien, but it's not her, and anyone who accuses her is probably the EW. Right... A bit like if I said that if anyone suspects me to be a Wolf, they must be Wolves themselves. Are you trying to scare people from analysing you by hinting that they could be the EW?

4) Celuien's theory is that someone who has defended both Nogrod and Naria could be the EW, but she's so busy with defending herself that she doesn't check if there is anyone like that than herself (except a bit later; she didn't find any). Besides, it rather contradicts with what she said the Day before yesterDay:

I wonder if the EW would risk exposure by openly defending a transformed villagers

When phantom said that it might be either way, Celuien replied:

That's true, but I think that there are less suspicion raising and simpler ways to make a good defense against wizardry. Unless the EW is a very bold, very brash sort, of course.

This post by Celuien makes me really uneasy. I'll go doing some rereading now.

Celuien

05-17-2006, 03:52 AM

Well, no, Valier and Morm both thought I was suspcious yesterday. And while I was locked in my cottage last night pondering the fate that has fallen on us, I began to wonder if the EW had been defending its creatures. Then it occured to me that I might look decidedly EW like, so I thought I'd answer it off the bat(tledore) to avoid a pointless argument over if I were or not.

It's not meant to stop anyone from trying to analyse me. Not in the least. Thing is, I thought I had a method of EW spotting, but one that I couldn't put forward without looking like it myself, so it was offered with a defense.

And I am perfectly allowed to look at things from different viewpoints. I didn't think yesterday that the EW would have been brazen enough to defend anyone of the transformees. But in light of circumstances, I wondered if it was a possibilityand wanted to look into it. All I wanted to do was change my perspective. Phantom was right about a lot of things. I thought that just maybe he was right about that too. Who's to say that the EW isn't brash? There's at least one candidate present who would fit the bill. :rolleyes:

Cailín

05-17-2006, 03:56 AM

I was in desperate need of a suspect / impressions list for myself, since I fear I am losing overview. So here it is:

Diamond -

Voted: Loki, Nogrod

She has said a lot these past few days, and not everything is relevant. However, she appears to be genuine. I do believe that the wizard who chose Nogrod, Naria and Loki might have picked Diamond18 to be his/her wolf as well. However, I am inclined to say she's innocent. Noteworthy that she voted for the winning candidate on both days.

Celuien -

Voted: Lommy and Lalaith

Another one who speaks a lot, yet slightly more suspicious than Diamond. In hindsight, her votes do seem a little odd. Lalaith is explainable at that time but though she provided a rather extended analysis of Lommy before voting for her, I don't think it was very reasonable. However, twas Day one, so who is reasonable then?

There is something about her that makes me uncomfortable. I am not putting the wizard past the frog, if you get my meaning.

Caranlondien -

Voted: Loki, Nogrod

There is less information on Caran. She has posted regularly, but said less than some and even her voting pattern underlines her inclination to go with the crowd. She was suspicious of Lommy, yesterDay, as well. She has been clarifying things, tallying votes but provided few theories of her own. I do not think her particularly guilty, but not very innocent either. She might just be a little overwhelmed.

Roa Aoife -

Voted: Nogrod.

What a fierce attack on Nogrod and what a victory indeed. Roa has played a remarkably clean game so far: voting twice for the wolf and defending the innocent. She is not cleared yet. This game is far too dynamic to believe her innocent. I do think it is unlikely she is the Evil Wizard, though, which is good in itself.

Dancing Spawn of Ungoliant -

Voted: Lhuna, Oddwen

Spawn has been able to remain inconspicuous. Her analysis has been less involved, but this is a large village and dynamics are completely different. Voices of reason seem usually rather lost in our situation.
However, I must admit that both Spawn's votes seem a little 'throwaway' in the masses. YesterDay, I myself was too stubborn to believe Nogrod could be a wolf (bad quality of mine) because I would not have made him a wolf. I can hardly judge people who did the same as me. But I am going to keep a closer eye on Spawn. She is different, somehow. Yet also no primary suspect.

Kath -

Voted: Lommy, Nogrod

Now I am pretty sure Kath is not a wizard. That can be ascribed to one of these feeling thingies, but also because she is seemingly not quite committed to the game. She would be my choice for a wolf, which is why I continue to regard her with some suspicion. However, her short posts are rather to the point. I'd wish to seem some more thoughts from Kath, but she might just be innocent after all. (No! She must be guilty! She must be!)

Lommy -

Voted: Nogrod

Why do people suspect Lommy? Because she has a tendency for drawing negative attention. Sorry Lom. I must agree with what Eomer said in the first place: the EW must be mad to choose Lommy as one of his wolves. However, the EW is certainly criminally insane (Nilp after all?) and he might have done it. I think not, however. I think Lommy is innocent.

Lhunardawen -

Voted: Eomer, no vote.

Lhuna, where art thou?
She might be wolvish. I'd vote Eomer if I were a wolf. In other words, I am clueless.

Glirdan -

Voted: Oddwen, no vote.

Well, Glirdan is gone I believe. He is also no wizard. Nor a wolf. I am quite convinced of it. It is strange that there has been no bandwagon against him as of yet and maybe we should start one for tradition's sake. :p

Valier -

Voted: Loki, Oddwen

Personally I greatly respect Valier as an asset for the good side, since she does have the most unnatural instinct for pointing out evil wherever it may try to hide. Currently, her instincts are either failing her or she has already been recruited for the forces of evil. I will have to see how she continues contributing toDay.

Sleepy Ranger -

Voted: no one, Fea.

Another silent one. Extremely silent, I might add. I cannot say much about him.

Kitanna -

Voted: Loki, Nogrod

Some great contributions yesterDay. As I hope she will marry my son before this ordeal is over, I wish to believe her innocent. She would, however, be a good pick for the EW. I am giving her the benefit of the doubt.

Firefoot -

Voted: Lommy, Roa

She defended Nogrod almost passionately yesterDay. I think she is likely innocent. Actually, she is far too adorable to believe her capable of any mischief. In short: her defense of Nogrod even after he was doomed and her continuously helpful contributions convince me that she has the village's best interests at heart.

Alcarillo -

Voted: Nogrod

My husband… yes, indeed, he does not say much. He is a good listener though. Has to be, after having been married to me for so long. I do not find him as suspicious as some, mainly because I do not think his defensiveness -though that is definitely noteworthy- nor his in character posts to be so wolvish. Be assured, however, that I shall be watching him very closely. Just one misstep and…

Cailín -

Voted: Oddwen.

I can hardly analyse myself. I am innocent, though.

Oddwen -

Voted: no vote, Lalaith

Yes, I find her silence and unhelpful behaviour highly suspicious, as can be gathered from my votes. I still cannot excuse her; she remains high up on my suspect list.

mormegil -

Voted: Kath, Nogrod

He seems a little less rash in his conclusions concerning guilt and innocence than usual, and I like that. His case against Eomer toDay was reasonable and brave to put forward and he has been right a lot so far. I cannot discount him as a possible wolf or wizard, but I think he might just be innocent. Since I tend to suspect Mormegil no matter what, I might not be all that reliable.

Feanor -

Voted: Loki, Roa

Isn't Fea wonderful? Her votes are totally off and yet she appears more innocent than anyone in this village does. I regret objecting to having her in my family at all. Well, anyway, she comes across as an innocent, though I have heard rumours that she can easily hide her evil nature. She is not my primary suspect.

I am still not discounting her as the Evil Wizard, though.

Zali -

Voted: Loki, Nogrod, Eomer

Hmm Zali… I am sorry I have to accuse you of anything right after phantom, whom you clearly adored, died, but you are starting to worry me somewhat. Yes, you did vote for Nogrod, but only after he was (practically) already doomed. Same goes for Loki. And now you just jump up at Mormegil's theory -not only that- if you are mistaken, he is to blame. That is a bit weird. However, considering the lorebooks… you are always suspicious.

Jenny Hallu -

Voted: Saucepan Man, no vote

JennyHallu is also slowly rising on my suspicious list. She has not said much yesterDay, which makes me hesitant to judge her, but I know she'd be a clever pick for the EW and she has done nothing that really speaks for her innocence. I also find it interesting that her vote for the Saucepan Man on Day 1 was more or less ignored by the crowd.

Lalaith -

Voted: Loki, Oddwen

Lalaith is a very clever woman, we all know that. Despite the fact that she appears to be helpful and thoughtful as usual, I find something a bit different about her. I am sorry, Lal, but I continue to find you a little suspicious. Her canon fodder theory has been the topic of discussion for quite a while now, but I don't find anything odd about it. I do find it a little odd that she decided Loki fit that description.

Eonwe -

Voted: Nilp, no vote

Silent, silent. Unlikely evil.

Eomer -

Voted: Nogrod

Oh dear. Eomer, promise your mum you haven't meddled with dark forces. Promise? Please? (in other words: as usual, I have difficulties judging which side Eomer is on. I see the sense behind Mormegil's words, but when I personally scrutinize Eomer's posts, I come up with nothing. He might have an unhealthy obsession for wizardry, but is that enough to condemn him?)

Nilpaurion -

Voted: Nogrod, Valier

Phantom believed Nilp might have been a wizard. I do not. His lack of voting for himself is noteworthy, but I ascribe that to him being happily married for once. I do not trust him at all, but who could?

I'm pretty confident about my vote, though.

++Nogrod

I am quoting this because I found it very interesting indeed, especially because the vote was not repeated the Day after.

Gurthang -

Voted: Lommy, Nogrod

He is a little silent and I am not used to that. Still, I find no reason to particularly suspect him as of yet.

--

Wow, that took me quite a while. At least I do not think I missed anyone this time.

Lalaith

05-17-2006, 04:07 AM

I've got to do some reading of overnight posts now, but I thought I'd just mention this: after my suspicions of Oddwen yesterday, I did a little lorebook studying, because despite her being my ward, it is a long time since her branch of the family and mine actually had much to do with each other.

What I found was that her ancestors have often behaved this strange and elusive way, whether infected with lycantrophy or not.
Which is helpful. :rolleyes:

Well, more later once I've caught up.

Nilpaurion Felagund

05-17-2006, 04:14 AM

Well, I must go now, so I guess I must vote.

++Azaelia of Willowbottom

I find her today most odd. Voting for the most possible bandwaggon target while covering her tracks make her look too . . . wolvish.

Besides, from what I've read of her she's pretty smart, though often underestimated. Makes for a promising EW target.

Good day! :)

Lalaith

05-17-2006, 04:25 AM

Oh, and here are some notes I have made to keep track of events and get my own thoughts straight, which might be of help to others.

Night One: Three wolves were created, one turned back.

Night Two: One more wolf was created, adding to original two.

Day Two: One wolf (Nogrod) is killed.

Night Three: A wolf is created. A wolf (Naria) is killed.

Was Naria a Night One wolf? Was Nogrod? Would the EW have risked cursing Noggie on Night Two?
Our two remaining wolves - one is almost certainly the one who was cursed last Night (Three). The other - is s/he a Night One or Night Two wolf? It is quite possible that both wolves now living, were innocent on the first day.

As for the changed wolf, there are three possibilities:
1. Loki was telling the truth.
2. It was Saucie.
3. S/he is still among us. If 3, should they come forward?

Last night the Seer had his/her first dream. Could this have been of Naria, which information was then conveyed to our brave Hunter? Or did he seek her out due to his own suspicions?

Nilpaurion Felagund

05-17-2006, 04:36 AM

I'll put my input on the changed wolf issue now.

I believe Loki's claim. I also believe that among the throngs of ignorant villagers who voted for him DAY 1, one (or more) bad guys helped push his bandwaggon.

Cailín

05-17-2006, 04:58 AM

If I understand The Great Moderator correctly, the Hunter did not pick his target at all, which means the Seer will probably have dreamt of someone else.

But I admit I did not really understand what his post implied.

Lalaith

05-17-2006, 05:07 AM

*baffled*
Cailin, what do you mean? The story post?

Here's the order of events according to the rules:
Order of Night Activities:
1. Evil wizard picks whom to curse.
2. Good wizard pickes whom to scry.
3. Affected players are informed of results of #1 & #2 (if both wizards pick same villager, this phase gets longer but is completed before the next phase begins).
4. Ranger picks whom to save.
5. Seer picks whom to dream.
6. Hunter picks whom to hunt.
7. Werewolves pick whom to kill.
Note: Steps 4 - 7 can happen simultaneously, but will be recorded by the moderator in the order as listed so as to keep the game straight.

So the Hunter could have picked his hunt according to the Seer's dream. And in fact, going over this order, Naria could have been the wolf turned last night.

Oh, and furthermore, I've just realised that it is logically possible for Nogrod, or Naria, or Phantom himself, to have been the turned villager.

*puts head in bucket of cold water*

Cailín

05-17-2006, 05:11 AM

Lalaith

05-17-2006, 05:15 AM

I'm sorry, I'm going mad. Where did LMP put that post, I can't find it. *sobs*

Lalaith

05-17-2006, 05:18 AM

Ok, found it now. *dries eyes*. Sorry.

Cailín

05-17-2006, 05:19 AM

Ok, found it now. *dries eyes*. Sorry.

Easy now, dear. :)

Eomer of the Rohirrim

05-17-2006, 05:52 AM

Hahahahahahahaha!!!!! :D

About time. ;)

I'm not the EW. I'm not the GW. I'm not anything but a tired young man who wants to settle down in a peaceful village. This dream does not look as if it will come true.

Mormegil, I'm trying to think like the EW in order to guess who he/she picked as wolves. Because, in the early going at least, there's no solid logic to work with. It's mostly guesswork. That's why I consider what would be good EW picks and go from there.

I've said it before and I'll say it again: I have never had interest in sorcery [see what that means?]

Oh, and the wink was for Lhuna (she knows), and the shield is the shield I wear all the time [in every post].

Phantom, I will miss you so much, my dear brother! You truly were a hero.

And stop accusing my father! I do not think he has been overreacting at all. I'll maybe have something more constructive later; but don't vote for me, because I will die a poor death in the noose and no more, my big blue human eyes gazing sadly at you as if to say "Why? Why'd you kill me?" It makes me weep just thinking about it.

Eomer of the Rohirrim

05-17-2006, 05:55 AM

Oh yes, and Spawn is innocent. I can tell because she gets more clinical and devastating when innocent and with nothing to lose. The wolves will kill her, I am afraid.

JennyHallu

05-17-2006, 06:06 AM

I find Diamond's readiness to jump to the assumption that the wolves know eachother's identities somewhat disturbing. It is possible, yes, but I don't think Nogrod's attack of Loki shows it. Say Noggie was wolvish night one (probably so, as people found him odd right away): Loki revealed himself as the changed wolf, no one contradicted his claim...it was logical therefore for a wolf to turn opinion against someone who would otherwise be a known innocent.

I also find Lalaith's Saucie-as-changed-wolf option to be odd, because if that were so, I doubt Saucie would have been as ready to advise the village to look askance at the group of players he did, because he would have known the wolf was as likely to select loud players (and now we know quiet players) as anyone else.

As for any suspicions of me...I'm innocent, have been innocent, and Eru willing, shall remain innocent. My vote for Saucepan day 1 was based on the fact that I disagreed with his list, and feared the consequences of knocking so many villagers off the list of whom we looked at. Time has only proved me right: neither Nogrod nor Naria were on Saucie's list.

EDIT: X'd with Eomer, twice, whom I shall not discuss now. Not sure where I stand, and don't want to clutter the village with half-baked thoughts.

dancing spawn of ungoliant

05-17-2006, 07:23 AM

It's too early for me to start making an overall analysis of the Village since so few has posted toDay, and anyone of the villagers can be the one whom the EW picked last Night. So, I'll just point out some oddities from toDay.

1) Morm's post #372
"The wolves probably don't know who each other is and therefore may actually vote for their fellows. I realize that this includes me but it must be said."

I get what he's trying to say, but that's just a lovely way to put it. Enhancing the fact that you bring out a theory against the Wolves (that others have already mentioned) which includes yourself is an old trick to polish the halo above one's head.

2) Celuien's post #378
(In addition to her post #362 which I commented in my post #401.)
"But if you're [mormegil] right, particularly about Eomer being awfully accurate, what does that say about Lalaith? I believe he repeatedly mentioned her as a probable EW pick."

Well, what would it say? That either Lalaith is a Wolf or then she's not. I don't like it when people poll each other without giving their own thoughts. It's just too handy for the baddies to search for possible bandwagonees and people against whom it would be safe to make cases.

3) Fea's post #384
Nilp (or Adam?) said: "Maybe he's [EW] picking from the Ns. You've [Nilp] been cursed, haven't you?"

Fea made a response: "Conspiracy theorist that I am... why does this strike me as trying to kill the shepherdess with a penchant for alliteration? I've denied the 'L's, so now it's 'N's? :rolleyes: :p "

A conspiracy theorist or not, I find it odd that Fea took the quote to be directed to her.

4) Zali's post #387
"He [Eomer] also doesn't seem to be giving much thought to "if I were the good wizard".(though that could be deliberate--he, like others, may just be trying to throw the focus off the GW)"

Why would people say out loud what they would do if they were the GW?

"I think it's fairly obvious that we ought to look closely at Mormegil who got this bandwaggon-to-be rolling."

This just doesn't make sense at all. It's a nice attempt to shift blame to others, though. Those who just go with a ready theory and refuse to take responsibility for their vote (like Oddwen yesterday) make me very uneasy.

She votes for Eomer, and let's see what happens after that...

"I hope you all can forgive me for an unfortunate double case of RLcoincidenceopia and TimeZoneitis, and for not giving Eomer the chance to defend himself."

"This is not the way I prefer to play, and I apologize."

"Again, apologies, all."

"I'm really sorry."

Apologizers creep me out. You can consult your lorebooks to find out why.

Oh yes, and Spawn is innocent. I can tell because she gets more clinical and devastating when innocent and with nothing to lose. The wolves will kill her, I am afraid. I'm devastating? :confused:

Eomer of the Rohirrim

05-17-2006, 07:59 AM

You know not the power you have, Spawn. That post about Celuien? Brilliant stuff, very biting. You are extremely persuasive.

And very nice observation on Fea. Could be nothing or could be a slip.

I'm off to do some more reading.

Eomer of the Rohirrim

05-17-2006, 08:13 AM

Actually, Spawn, your considerations overlap with my major thought of yesterday (which has only been strengthened by what has happened thus far today).

Put short: I'm pretty sure that one of our dearest villagers is hiding a sorcerous secret. Whether good or evil, I genuinely can't decide. But might it be in the interests of the village if the GW comes forward now or tomorrow? If the EW challenges the GW today then the village is left with a Seer and 2 wolves (3 tomorrow) and a huge number of innocents. If tomorrow, then the village will have (probably) a Seer, a Guardian, a whole lot of innocents and (probably) 3 wolves.

It's just the numbers game. We have been fortunate enough to catch 2 wolves already. Going into Day Four and having a couple of gifteds and the standard number of wolves gives us a huge numbers advantage.

I say this because I'm not sure whether I should make my accusation in public, if she does turn out to be good.

But what the hey! I could be the GW and you're very happy to accuse me of EW-ness.

Hmm? There are numerous clues (which I'm not sure, come to think of it, the EW would leave — unless, as Mormegil suspects, the EW is extremely brash).

Lalaith

05-17-2006, 08:25 AM

The Fea thing: I think the original alliteration stuff about the Ls was directed at her so it's not really surprising she took the Ns personally as well.

I've read through everything posted today. Here's what I think now.

1. Naria was the wolf created last night. I was trying to think who this wolf might be, and I thought, someone who has not yet been suspected, and someone very unlike Noggie, who the villagers had just unveiled. Naria fits that bill.
Plus, what wolf would the Great Seal pick to be the wolf killed by the Hunter? Makes sense to have it the most recent wolf.(...hope you don't find me presumptious or insolent as to your motivation, O Great Seal, it's just my humble theory...)
So that means that we have a Night One wolf still with us, and the other wolf is a Night Two wolf.
I was really hoping that I could come to the conclusion that both the Night One wolves were now dead, because I don't want to have to go back to read all that Day One stuff again. Sigh. But I fear that is not the case.

2. Call me stubborn but I still don't think Loki was the changed wolf. I can see why the EW would pick him but not the GW.

Jenny, I get your point about Saucie being the changed villager. But logically, I needed to consider all options.

As for the identity of the EW, I agree that this is more important than finding wolves as he is the source of all wolvery. I'm inclined to trust Morm being innocent right now, but that doesn't mean I'm convinced by Eomer theory. And I don't have any real EW theories of my own, although I can give you a list of people I really hope aren't the EW.

JennyHallu

05-17-2006, 08:26 AM

3) Fea's post #384
Nilp (or Adam?) said: "Maybe he's [EW] picking from the Ns. You've [Nilp] been cursed, haven't you?"

Fea made a response: "Conspiracy theorist that I am... why does this strike me as trying to kill the shepherdess with a penchant for alliteration? I've denied the 'L's, so now it's 'N's? :rolleyes: :p "

A conspiracy theorist or not, I find it odd that Fea took the quote to be directed to her.

Actually I took that as a purely in-character response to her occupation, a "shepherdess with a penchant for alliteration". Didn't think it was that odd.

Lalaith

05-17-2006, 08:29 AM

So that means that we have a Night One wolf still with us, and the other wolf is a Night Two wolf.

I should elaborate on this, sorry...of course it is possible that Noggie was a Night Two wolf and the remaining wolves are both Night Ones. But I agree with those who think Noggie was created on Night One.

JennyHallu

05-17-2006, 08:29 AM

I'd also like an explanation of what exactly the Great Seal meant in that update post. Seems a little odd to interpret it that anytime a hunter is created a wolf dies, Lalaith...that's too clumsy for the great LMP. I'm confused on what exactly happened last night, and whether or not the Phantom selected his kill or had it picked for him, and by whom.

mormegil

05-17-2006, 08:34 AM

Hmm? There are numerous clues (which I'm not sure, come to think of it, the EW would leave — unless, as Mormegil suspects, the EW is extremely brash).

Correct! And there are only a few among us who would be that brazen to try. You of course are one as I would consider Fea.

Currently I think Spawn is innocent as her contributions are helpful and meaningful.

Cailin also seems to fit into that mold.

I hate that we must always say currently but as the dynamic is such we must remember that people may change from one day to the next.

I am glad to see that we have others thinking for themselves and not merely following the early/easy theory because that is what it is. I placed it early and made it fairly easy for a couple of reasons.

1. I have legitimate concerns over Eomer, but I always do because he can pull off things like this bluff so I will never give him the benefit of my doubt.

2. I wanted to see who would take my theory and run with it, obvioulsy Azaelia is the worst offender there. I think there could be some merit to my theory but I'm not convinced myself that it is true.

3. I wanted to see who would resisit it and who would say nothing as that would tell us something as well. I think Gurthang's response speaks highly of him and shows that he is a critical thinker.

I'm not saying that others who agreed with me, Firefoot, in particular, are not critical thinkers as I find myself often agreeing with theories but there are those who won't do any investigation themselves and we found at least one here.

Basically I'm neither convinced of Eomer's innocence nor his guilt but wanted to get something going today.

Alcarillo is still bothering me and I'm wary of him.

Eomer of the Rohirrim

05-17-2006, 08:35 AM

Changed my mind somewhat on the Fea thing (Jenny made me look). I thought that, character or not, it would have been odd to remark on something said previously and not directed at her; but since Fea's post was directly after Nilp's it looks a lot more normal.

Might cross one of the list...

Cailín

05-17-2006, 08:36 AM

I say this because I'm not sure whether I should make my accusation in public, if she does turn out to be good.

Please make it public, dearie. Can't have secrets from your mum, now can you?

And truly, if you really have such a strong case, I cannot think it anyone else than a) the EW slipping up or b) the GW wanting to be found.

But of course, you should trust your own judgement. Whether the wizards battle today or tomorrow, I believe the village currently has a major advantage. The only danger I can see is that the identity of the Good Wizard could lead to the Seer.

Lalaith

05-17-2006, 08:36 AM

This is what I interpreted from LMP's post - and I think what Cailin also thought:

Phantom was picked as Hunter by the GW but also, before he could get his choice in, he was picked to die by the wolves.
So, a wolf died with him.
If the GW had created a Hunter who had not been picked as wolf-kill, then no wolf would have died.

Eomer of the Rohirrim

05-17-2006, 08:37 AM

Mormegil: funny you should say that; we may see eye-to-eye after all...

Celuien

05-17-2006, 08:46 AM

My schedule at the Healer's convention may keep me quite late today, and I don't know when I'll next be able to return. Little newly born babies are awfully time consuming. ;)

So, since I've managed a break for the next few minutes, this is the only opportunity I'll have for a vote.

++ ALCARILLO

His defensiveness alarms me. And I still don't find it entirely impossible that Saucy was wrong, despite the last two revealed wolves not being on his list.

Eomer's responses to the accusations against him feel right. He isn't excused, but I too am willing to give him the benefit of the doubt for now.

I haven't time now to respond to the various theories and suspicions flying around. All I can tell you is that, like my ancestors before me, I have been passed over by any cursing or sorcery and remain an entirely ordinary villager.

Gurthang

05-17-2006, 08:53 AM

Oh yes, and Spawn is innocent. I can tell because she gets more clinical and devastating when innocent and with nothing to lose. The wolves will kill her, I am afraid.
Oh, great! :rolleyes: According to morm, Eomer is almost always right. Which means that spawn is doomed.

(Maybe this is putting another nail in her coffin) But I do believe her to be innocent. She's making sustance filled posts, and I agree with a lot of what she says. Particularly her points against Celuien in post #401. Those were more or less my thoughts when I read Celuien's post.

morm, your post above intrigues me. Mainly because I see brilliance in it. I didn't think it was like you to make a case against someone on the flimsy evidence you had against Eomer, and now I see you wanted to get some reactions from it. This makes me think you are innocent. Eomer, well, I agree about (being uneasy about him), but I'm not eager to lynch him toDay.

littlemanpoet

05-17-2006, 09:00 AM

Rules Clarification

1. If the player the Hunter picks is a wizard or an innocent (whether ordo or gifted), the Hunter makes no kill.

2. If the player the Hunter picks is a werewolf, the Hunter and werewolf kill each other.

3. If one of the players that the werewolves pick to kill is the Hunter, one of the werewolves who nominated or voted for the Hunter, is killed, and kills the Hunter.

Rules Revision

The Hunter, if lynched, does not make a kill.

I apologize again for not having this clear in my head before we started. The clarifications and revision are in keeping with my dry runs, which held good balance. We return to that balance.

These clarifications and the revision are effective immediately.

Thank you. That is all.

Eomer of the Rohirrim

05-17-2006, 09:00 AM

It's a good tactic and one that has caught out a lot of people in the past. Apparently, everyone has forgotten that Mormegil thought I looked innocent before.

And another thing: why have a couple of people said that I'm nearly always right when Naria's guilt contradicts this? I don't get it.

I have an utterly flimsy case for someone being the EW. I'm almost too embarrassed to state it.

(It's Fea, by the way.)

Cailín

05-17-2006, 09:05 AM

(It's Fea, by the way.)

The alliteration huh?

I knew it.

Mormegil, that was very clever, sir.

mormegil

05-17-2006, 09:06 AM

I meant to comment on Nilp but sadly I must commonly post in a piece-wise manner as I get interupted at work. However Nilp seems surprising insightful and helpful. Could this mark a change? I don't know how to feel about this but everything feels innocent.

Eomer, well, I agree about (being uneasy about him), but I'm not eager to lynch him toDay.

Nor I and he becoming more and more innocent feeling with each post though I'm intrigued to here his fea EW theory.

I must stress however that because somebody feels innocent today does not mean that they will be tomorrow. This is a different dynamic and we all have a habit of thinking that because somebody is innocent at one point that continues...until the EW us rooted out we won't have any static condition.

Feanor of the Peredhil

05-17-2006, 09:11 AM

About the alliteration joke, it was indeed just a bit of in-character goofing off. Perhaps I shouldn't try to joke before bed any more. :rolleyes:

In any case, this is a rushed post before I go off to get a few [shepherdessing] things done.

Given the dynamics of this game, my next statements only apply to RIGHT NOW.

I don't want us to lynch mormegil, Eomer, or Cailin.

I'll elaborate later. I plan to follow in footsteps and do my own character analyses. But not until after I run some errands and actually eat a real meal for the first time in a few days... amazing just how tired you get when you forget to eat real food. Be back later...

Edit: crossed with LMP onward. I'm an EW? Do tell.

Eomer of the Rohirrim

05-17-2006, 09:24 AM

Morm, think I'm the EW all you want, but there is no way I am being cursed as a wolf. My survival rate is pitiful. Choosing me as a wolf means choosing a dead wolf. The EW cannot afford to be stupid and picking me would be stupid.

I am, in all seriousness, alternating opinions every minute here. Here, I say "Fea's a wizard!" and there I say "That's crazy!"

But here goes:

I was first alerted to Fea's behaviour by her constant 'sighs' that she will get herself killed. It's there in posts #79, #83 and #87. "Oh, this strategy will get me killed!" But all she was doing is advocating killing those shady characters whom the village never trusts. Hardly an outrageous suggestion. It struck me as trying too hard to stay alive.

She is all about finding the EW. Now, this is a good idea; but her focus on this leads villagers to avert their gaze from her when doing this search. Yes, yes, this seems pretty ad hoc, but I noticed it. She's very vocal, taking it upon herself to find the EW.

#96 Brings up her point about the Wizard volunteers being those villagers with time to spare. No way could they be students with exams (because students are sooooo busy :p ). It just seems like a convoluted way to get people looking elsewhere for sorcery, and not at her.

And in that same post, the strangest one of all: She states, out of nowhere, that The Phantom is not the EW.

#226 Says it again (though it's only probable this time).

#230 Jests with The Phantom about being the EW, then adds in brackets that she's just kidding, or something.

#282 Again brings up that she hasn't the time, although she'd love to be the Wizard.

She also dismisses the hint I gave in #280 (I also gave my hint that Fea was a wizard in #98).

So, all in all, Fea is very eager to stay alive, wants us all to go out there and search for the EW, and is adamant that there is a good reason for her not to be the EW. Plus that Phantom-assertion made me a bit nervous.

I don't buy that whole 'busy' argument at all. Fea knows all about the glory of Werewolf. She'd relish the chance of being the first Wizard and you know it.

So you see, Fea, I have had my eye on you for a while. ;)

And that, ladies and gentlemen, is possibly the worst theory you will hear all day. :D

Thinlómien

05-17-2006, 09:33 AM

An OOC announcement: I will be a smaller nuisance for those who can't stand reading several pages every day - I should focus on a school project and an upcoming exam toDay, so I will probably be flooding less...

And if I'm rementioning some things, I'm sorry, but I'm writing this as I'm reading through the thread to get done with this faster (see above^) and I'm too lazy to edit it all...

On Eomer

First of all, I can't quite understand where all these suspicion on him has suddenly sprung from. I don't mean he seems innocent to me (he actually is a neither innocent nor extremely suspicious -case), but I'm rather wary of anyone just making a case out of nothing, though it would be reasonably founded. Anyway, my comments and speculations on the topic:

He also has been using the shield icon rather frequentlyI wouldn't think that to be of any significance, morm, since uses it in discussions etc. quite often. Or maybe he has some kind of strategy: if there's no shield, he lies, if there is, he speaks the truth - or something like that. So he could convey messages to his wolves.

Maybe he actually did curse her, if he is the EW... if that's so, I would certainly look to Lommy. Sorry, Firefoot, but I think that is a bit far-fetched. If he was the EW and I was a wolf, why would he speak truth about other wolves, but not of me? I can't follow your logic...

And, because the wolves do not know each other ... If he really is the EW, does he tell the truth here?

His vote for Nogrod seemed strange to me even on Day1 as he had not suspected Noggie before. What he himself says on the topic is: Oh, and Lommy, my vote from nowhere? Um...yeah, it was pretty much a random Day One vote. I could have voted for pretty much anyone. It wasn't as if I was railing against Fea and then changed my vote to Nogrod out of nowhere! This might point towards he being the EW, or not, but we shouldn't forget this comment...

On other subjects

Oh one other plus about getting Nogrod off, besides being a wolf, it slows down the talk a bit I hope you're not saying you wish I'm lynched or eaten next... ;)

The people who think I'm suspicious because of trying to be helpful should have a look at Diamond and her Day1 quoting project... :rolleyes: Anyway, Di, it was (maybe) useful, or I felt so at least.

The question is, did anyone else make similar posts talking up the importance of the Wolves not knowing each other? I did, as well. I said they'd be harder to track. If you want to see the post, I think I posted it on Day 1, but that's all I remember.

Spawn has creditable points on Celuien.

I feel Lalaith's very innocent. As for the changed wolf, there are three possibilities:
...
3. S/he is still among us. If 3, should they come forward?
She's the only one raising this topic, and this seems as she's asking advise. You can always question my reasoning here, but I gave it some thought.

I'm too confused about everything to name any suspects except Eomer and Alacrillo (< especially that one) who have nearly all the village after them.

Oh, and that Fea-theory of Eomer's - I think it's only a poor attempt to give the village another EW candidate to think about.... A bit more sound cases would be welcome, though, as I'm not sure about Eomer's guilty, though he seems suspicious.

Lalaith

05-17-2006, 09:46 AM

and this seems as she's asking advise

Lommy, I did suspect that asking this question might make people think I was the changed wolf, but I really wasn't.
Now, while I am quite interested in the changed wolf question, what I am really interested in, and wish more people were too, is the 'at what point were the current wolves cursed' issue I was dwelling on earlier.
I appreciate that there's lots of wizard-hunting going on right now - which is good - but we should also still be thinking about wolves.
Eomer, as for your Fea theory, I for one will give it thought. She is definitely on that list I mentioned earlier, of people I hope aren't the EW.

Kath

05-17-2006, 09:49 AM

Kath, as far as I understand the rules, Naria wouldn't know that Nogrod was a fellow wolf. She might have guessed, of course...is that what you mean?
No, that was me forgetting the rules and assuming the wolves knew who the others were and could PM :rolleyes:

I've been reading through, and it seems that the main suspicions at the moment are falling on Eomer and Celuien. So:

Eomer - the case against him began well. All those quotes from posts that mormegil dredged up could indeed be seen as suspicious, and I can quite believe Eomer being bold enough to pull a stunt like that. However, morm put almost no analysis of these quotes in, seemingly relying on his earlier post as explanation. Some of the charges seemed a little overly nitpicking, such as the icon theory. *sigh* And now I find that was all an elaborate ruse. Lucky I hadn't got too far along this train of thought.

Celuien - overly defensive after very little suspicion had been thrown her way. Often a reason to look out for people and I see no reason why that shouldn't be the same for her. The vote for Alcarillo clears her a little in my eyes though, as he has been acting very oddly. The problem is I'm still assuming the wolves know each other's identities, and so think Celuien innocent because I think Alcarillo more likely to be a wolf, and think Celuien would not be so bold as to vote for a fellow wolf so early. But that all depends on the wolves knowing who the other's are, if they don't that theory all goes to pot.

And may I add another to the list? Nilp has been behaving most oddly. I know he usually abandons the whole vote for yourself, random madness stuff after Day 1, but he barely even did it Day 1. I don't know if this is out of respect for Roa (or her ancestors even, see the latest lorebook for why on that) but it usually signifies that he is something other than an ordo. Then there was post 383, where he uses the term 'you' to refer to the villagers the whole time. I don't know it just caught me as odd. Why say 'you' and not 'we'?

And now we have Eomer's argument for Fea being the EW. It's an ok theory. The repeated pointing out that she wouldn't have the time is fair enough, as is the fact that had she the time she'd love to do it. If there was only some real evidence I might be more inclined to believe this one.

Who was it that said I didn't seem entirely committed to this? Was that you Cailin? If it's any help I am committed, I just find it hard to keep up!

Lalaith

05-17-2006, 09:52 AM

Then there was post 383, where he uses the term 'you' to refer to the villagers the whole time. I don't know it just caught me as odd. Why say 'you' and not 'we'?

*nods* That's a good spot, Kath. It could be of course that TimeZone-itis makes him feel distanced from the rest of us....

Cailín

05-17-2006, 10:05 AM

I'm too confused about everything to name any suspects except Eomer and Alacrillo (< especially that one) who have nearly all the village after them.

You are so flip floppy, Lommy, I can scarce believe it.

Oh, and that Fea-theory of Eomer's - I think it's only a poor attempt to give the village another EW candidate to think about.... A bit more sound cases would be welcome, though, as I'm not sure about Eomer's guilty, though he seems suspicious.

He’d be more suspicious if he hadn’t posted it.

And that, ladies and gentlemen, is possibly the worst theory you will hear all day.

I quite agree, the alliteration stuff was better. Seriously, I noted Fea’s odd apologetic behaviour on Day 1 as well, I suppose it just slipped to the back of my mind. But as you could see, I had this hunch Fea might be more than she appears from the start of this game. I am not convinced, though. After all, it is just a hunch.

Who was it that said I didn't seem entirely committed to this? Was that you Cailin? If it's any help I am committed, I just find it hard to keep up!

It was me. :) You misread my words (or I mistyped them). I meant not that you were not a committed villager, I just do not think you’d commit so much time to being a wizard. I might be wrong, however.

I disagree with you on one particular point, however. Thanks to Spawn’s later posts, I personally think Celuien more likely to be a wolf than Alcarillo and that has none to do with relations. Nice little detail with regards to Nilp's behaviour.

Feanor of the Peredhil

05-17-2006, 10:07 AM

Okay... my straight-forward response. All quotes by Aimè.

But all she was doing is advocating killing those shady characters whom the village never trusts.
It is common knowledge that I'm a shady character whom the village never trusts. While I don't want to die, I won't refrain from putting forth ideas or plans, even if they might lead to my death. I don't want anybody taken for granted. I want the village to win. If that means killing me, I'll be a martyr, but I'm not going to keep thoughts to myself for self-preservation. That's a wolvish tactic that I've never been good at.

She's very vocal, taking it upon herself to find the EW.
Of course I am. S/he's the most dangerous entity in this village. If we can find him and kill him early, we stand a far better chance of winning. Who wouldn't take it upon him or herself to do this?

No way could they be students with exams (because students are sooooo busy :p ).
I haven't got exams, ergo this is not a way of vindicating myself. I'm two weeks short of the end of a convoluted half-semester. I don't have finals. I have a creative writing portfolio to create and a book to write and put together. I'm busy, certainly, but it has nothing to do with tests.

And in that same post, the strangest one of all: She states, out of nowhere, that The Phantom is not the EW.
That's just logic. He likes to live long enough to have fun. He's also extremely well known. How many people, if they were the Seer, would dream of him first? *looks at all of the raised hands* Yeah. That's what I thought. He's brash, but he's not stupid. He'd never survive long enough to make it worth it.

#282 Again brings up that she hasn't the time, although she'd love to be the Wizard.
You said it yourself. I'd have relished the job. But I don't have time and I'm as well known as the phantom. Lorebooks say that the last game my ancestor was in had her dreamt of first night and killed forthwith. I tend to like living long enough to have some fun.

And that, ladies and gentlemen, is possibly the worst theory you will hear all day. :D
Yeah, but it was cute. :p

Diamond18

05-17-2006, 10:07 AM

First line of business,

*whacks Jenny with battledore*

:p That's for implying I cluttered the village with half baked theories. :p

Anyway, as I said last night, after reviewing Day 1 I'm not quite as impressed as I was at first with my theories about the wolves knowing each other, having a specific agenda, and the importance of mentions to the contrary -- but as it was my "big idea" and I never have any of those usually, I pursued it with gusto.

The problem with not being overly impressed with the results of deeper digging, is that it hasn't given me anyone I particularly want to vote for. So, who don't I want to vote for:

Eomer -- I didn't really fall in line with Morm's theory, though I can see how it would work, and Eomer's posts make me think it less likely. Maybe it's the big blue eyes. I dunno.

Alcarillo -- I don't find in character posting to be all that suspicious.

Celuien -- One of my theories makes her look very bad, but it's the same one that makes me look downright terrible, so I don't think I should be condeming her for it. In other words, if I'm innocent probably she is too.

There are a lot of people I don't feel strongly about one way or the other, so I don't want to vote for them for that reason.

People I might vote for:

Fea -- Interesting Wizard theory Eomer has, but... I'm not sure. On the other hand, Fea was also the only person who agreed with me about Roa possibly being a friend. While I appreciated the support, I can almost see a wizardly Fea jumping on a chance to make someone else look wizardly. Though she said the friend-thing didn't necessarily point to wizardliness, she was the only person in the entire bleedin' village who even agreed with me a little and somehow, I find that odd. If I was making any sense, a lot more people should have agreed, instead of everyone but one person thinking I was wasting space. She also voted for the two people who were saying the worst things about Nogrod -- Loki and Roa. Cailín thinks she looks very innocent but I have to disagree.

Right now, and I'm really sorry to say this, the worst looking person in my view is Azaelia. Eager to jump on the Loki bandwaggon, the Nogrod bandwaggon, the Eomer bandwaggon, and the Alcarillo bandwaggon. While I may not find lots of in character posts suspicious, per se (with Nogrod, it was also so blindingly out of character) I do find excessive bandwaggoning to be highly suspicious.

X-Posted with a bunch o' people.

Kitanna

05-17-2006, 10:09 AM

Celuien=
I know that things look a might odd for me. I defended my girl on the first day and was hesitant to vote for Nogrod. With a record of defending what turned out to be two wolves, I must look like the evil wizard.

I wonder. Was there anyone else who defended them? Assuming that Naria was not a newly changed wolf (and being quiet, I'd assume she was one of the original wolves), someone who defended both over the first two days could be the EW. Only the EW knew that they were both wolves, after all. Something for me to look into.
See the problem with that is the EW probably didn't defend both (or maybe even one) of the wolves. You say your defending two known wolves makes you look suspicious, but you put out that we should search for others that did the same thing. That's just inviting trouble for yourself.
Assuming Naria and Nogrod were both wolves from the start I doubt the EW mentioned both together in the same post (as possible wolves or innocents). But if we assume one of them was changed into a wolf on the second night we should look at villagers who defended one on one day and defended the other the other day. Which also seems to point in Celuien's direction.
I'm leaning toward the innocence of Celuien, maybe because she's my dear old mom, or maybe because she put in the first post today throwing suspicions her way early, that seems like a pretty risky move for EW Celuien. We shall see how this day goes.
Firefoot=
I went back and did my own research on Eomer, and I found that Morm was right: Eomer seems alarmingly obsessed with the EW
With most other villagers I would say it is far too reckless to always make statements about what "I would do if I were the guilty party", but in the case of Eomer it is too dangerous too ignore. He has a terrible history of bluffing his way out of trouble.
Morm=
Eomer is a brazen character and wouldn't shirk at the thought of killing off his wolves, looking at the vote for Nogrod indicates he did just that.

Firefoot=
Well, if he was the EW, of course he wouldn't be eager to see Nogrod die. But I know from my lorebooks that Eomer is not at all averse to dispensing with his own comrades to make himself look better - and he would certainly be able to afford it, in a game like this, always making new minions.
Knowing he can always make new wolves and using the fact he helped in ridding us of Nogrod, Eomer will try to warm us over with the logic "I helped cast a deciding vote for Nogrod at a pivotal time in the voting process, how could I be the EW?" I've seen this logic from him before and if he really is the EW, no doubt he will be trying it again.

I can see Eomer as the EW and all that Morm has said makes me suspect him even more, but I'm not completely convinced yet. When I see Eomer's reaction today I'm sure my mind will be clearer on the matter.
In any case I feel Morm is most likely an innocent. Just a feeling though.
Zali=
Oddwen looked pretty suspicious to me yesterday as well, but after Naria's attempt to shift things her direction, I believe she is innocent.
Mmm interesting, but I don't think it completely clears Oddwen. If Oddwen is a wolf Naria wouldn't really know, so she could have picked someone who had already gained suspicions and just tried to put everyone's attention on them. I look forward to whatever Oddwen has to say today.

To be continued...

Feanor of the Peredhil

05-17-2006, 10:13 AM

She also voted for the two people who were saying the worst things about Nogrod -- Loki and Roa. That's because I didn't like (still don't like) Roa's die-hard defense of Loki. She denied being "the friend" so unless she's the flippin Seer and knew that Loki was innocent and Nogrod wasn't, I can't see any semblance of intelligence of putting herself on the line to fight tooth and nail for or against anybody in situations such as these. And since I'm not of the opinion that she is a Seer (must check on tallies of gifteds to see if there even was one...), that means I'm not comfortable with her continued existance.

Gah... you people. THIS is why I never get real meals. I'm leaving. I need lunch. *pries self away*

Edit: crossed with Kit

Diamond18

05-17-2006, 10:17 AM

Alright, I've got to go, I've got someone yapping at me and I can't whack her with my virtual battledores, so this'll be over and out for me toDay:

+ + Azaelia

I must be the worst mother ever. But Azaelia, of everyone who looks suspicious, looks the most suspicious.

Thinlómien

05-17-2006, 10:38 AM

You are so flip floppy, Lommy, I can scarce believe it.Excuse me, Cailín, but would you care to explain? I think you speak of my statements about Eomer... I don't think saying he's a suspect and he's suspicious though I'm not sure of his guilty are in contradiction (sp?, anyway, you got my meaning probably).

I admit Zali acts suspiciously, but I wouldn't like to believe she'd be that careless as a wolf. Honestly, I wouldn't like to question her intelligence. (Sorry, Zali, if you're furry... :p)

Kitanna

05-17-2006, 10:55 AM

Diamond=
The most suspicious looking perseon right now, I would say, would be Diamond. That's me. (Duh.) I got on Loki's case early and voted for him first. Celuien seems to be a more subtle Loki-attacker, however, which makes me look askance at her. (Especially since I know I'm innocent, so whoever looks second-worse than me is first in my view.)
Ok Diamond and Celuien have both mentioned that they are going to look suspcious today. Celuien because she defended Naria and Nogrod, proven wolves. Diamond because she went after Loki pretty early, just like Nogrod. The two are a little suspicious, but I don't find them overly so. They know where they stand and they know the danger they could be in, so they call attention to it first, which is risky and which makes them appear more innocent to me. However, I've fallen for the bluff/double-bluff before which is why I'm keeping those two on my radar.
Celuien=
Then it occured to me that I might look decidedly EW like, so I thought I'd answer it off the bat(tledore) to avoid a pointless argument over if I were or not.
Ok, perhaps I have misjudged (and all in one post, classy of me). I still defend Celuien's coming out early to defend herself because she probably would have fallen under attack to day. But the fact she would deem villager's looking at her as a "pointless argument" is unsettling.
Eomer=
Mormegil, I'm trying to think like the EW in order to guess who he/she picked as wolves. Because, in the early going at least, there's no solid logic to work with. It's mostly guesswork. That's why I consider what would be good EW picks and go from there.
I expected no other response from you in your defense.
Lalaith=
2. Call me stubborn but I still don't think Loki was the changed wolf. I can see why the EW would pick him but not the GW.
Unless the wizards think alike. Which is possible, trying to anticipate the other's moves and motives.
Diamond=
Celuien -- One of my theories makes her look very bad, but it's the same one that makes me look downright terrible, so I don't think I should be condeming her for it. In other words, if I'm innocent probably she is too.
...So you're not going with the theory that you seemed so confident of before because if you're innocent, your runner up must be innocent too? Suddenly I regret my defense of you and Celuien.

Valier

05-17-2006, 11:08 AM

Wow that was just crazy!!!! I had time before I went to bed last night to read the death and I was up all night thinking about it....So we now know that Nogrod and Naria as well as perhaps Loki were wolves...Now I got to thinking...who would pick these people for there team? I think we need to focus on killing the EW and soon!! So my list of EW suspects goes as follows...

Diamond18
Roa_Aoife
Sleepy Ranger
Kath

Now I still have to read through all the post that have been made so far today, but I will be around for the rest of the day. so I will be back with somemore stuff on these suspects......Expecially Kath and Roa.....They would make good EW's and would more than likely pick the two N's for wolves....

Oddwen

05-17-2006, 11:08 AM

I'm a little curious as to why the GW chose a hunter before a ranger As to that, Firefoot, I'm wondering whether the GW had got some werewolf sniffs and so created a Hunter that he knew was likely to die soon at the hands of the wolves. Yes, good job GW.

The wolves will kill her, I am afraid. Which would be more incriminatory to him, if he's right or if he's wrong?

Some questions that got asked that I was unable to answer yestreDay:

Oddwen was the one to give the second vote for Lalaith because some hunches she had and because of relationship issues. She also said that she's voting for Lalaith because of something I said. I would have appreciated if Oddwen could have given a reason to her vote, but to me it looks that she decided to go with some ready theory without giving her own thoughts at all. Forgive me, I was late for work and didn't have time to elaborate. Lalaith was the only one I had really 'noticed', and what Spawn posted in the post directly before my first post pretty much summed it up. (My first post of the day was x-posted with that post and Nogrod, I didn't see it 'til I came back.)

Basically because she absolutely refused to vote yesterDay. It wasn't like there was a RL excuse, she just didn't feel like voting(must be nice to have that luxury)! (Not that I have to answer to *you*, you filthy lycanthrope ;) ) I did as Zali should have perhaps done today, I couldn't see anyone who was suspicious enough to garner a vote, so I didn't vote. Since non-voting & non-participation aren't going to be enforced until we get rid of the Wizards, I didn't want to risk miscasting a vote on someone who was probably innocent.

The question is, did anyone else make similar posts talking up the importance of the Wolves not knowing each other?
I can answer that: I did and I think Oddwen might have mentioned it as well. Yep, I did.

Right now I'm looking at Celuien and Firefoot. I hope to get back on before toDay's end.

Gurthang

05-17-2006, 11:22 AM

Interesting theory Eomer. I wouldn't call it the worst toDay, but... well I'm not sure what to think of it. You make good points, but at the same time I can see where an ordinary Fea would do those same things. So, for now, I won't be voting for her.

I really wish Lhuna was around. I'm starting to worry about her. Likewise with Sleepy; I don't think he's been on toDay.

So, I think I'm doing this the wrong way. I keep coming up with people who I don't want to vote for, but that doesn't do me much good as far as who I will vote for. But, mostly for my own sake:

Won't vote for: morm, Eomer, Fea, or spawn.

People I'm more wary/suspicious of: Celuien, Azaelia, and Diamond. I think I'll look over their posts, and maybe a few others.

But at this moment, I think I'll join Fea for a bite to eat.

Valier

05-17-2006, 11:30 AM

I have been reading and the same thing keeps coming to mind.....In my lorebooks I have always known Roa's ancestors to argue with Nogrod's, but after another reading through, I find that she has been going over board in their squabble....I believe this would be a good move for the EW Get one of your already suspisious wolves killed and it makes you look more innocent.....Not to me!!!! I find this VERY odd and again I believe Roa-Aoife would pick Naria and Nogrod as her Baddies, so I would love some more analysis stuff on Roa and perhaps I can pick up something more on her.....

JennyHallu

05-17-2006, 11:31 AM

Honestly, I kind of like Eomer's crazy theory. Yes, it's happenstance and circumstance, but not entirely unlikely...as I recall my lorebooks tell of an ancestor of Fea's who, being wolvish, cheerfully told the village so, and an innocent ancestor of mine firmly believed that must mean she was joking and was innocent.

Fea has cheerfully told the village she's the Evil Wizard. The question is, is she joking? Must ponder...

Diamond18

05-17-2006, 11:34 AM

Since I have a minute before heading out the door (er, ten minutes to be exact) this caught my eye,

...So you're not going with the theory that you seemed so confident of before because if you're innocent, your runner up must be innocent too? Suddenly I regret my defense of you and Celuien.

How have I come across as confident? I had an idea which I thought had some worth, so I devoted my mindset to it. I went to the trouble of looking over old posts to see if they backed me up, and I came up with a lot of possibilities but nothing really stupendous. I'm rather disappointed, if anything.

Celuien I have not found especially guilty looking over the last couple days, and her posting this morning (which I said I was going to watch closely) hasn't done anything to make me go "aha!" Ergo, I didn't want to vote for her because the only really suspicious thing I could find about her was when I looked at her through the lenses of my wacky theories.

I had another thought whilst in the shower (can't very go off to the battledore shop smelly, eh?) -- that since Nogrod and I did a bit of talking about not voting for family on Day 1, I wonder if the Evil Wizard thought to use that to ensure a bit of safety for two of his wolves (besides Loki.) Which only ups my suspicion of my dear darling Azaelia.

Feanor of the Peredhil

05-17-2006, 11:45 AM

Fea has cheerfully told the village she's the Evil Wizard. The question is, is she joking? Must ponder...
Wait... I said that? Where?

I know that I promised a more in depth post with all conclusions based on analyzation thus far, but something's just come up and I'm uncertain as to whether or not I'll be able to do it. If I can't get it all done and posted before the end of the day, be sure it will be my first post "tomorrow." Sorry 'bout that... blasted real life interrupting at inopportune moments...

Valier

05-17-2006, 11:49 AM

You're weaving yet another odd tale, Roa,"
I know this is in the Narration, but I find this extremely odd as well......Weaving TALES are we? You know....this sounds like Roa's making alot of bluffing stories....I know we shouldn't use this, but where does it say that there isn't a shred of truth in the deaths?

JennyHallu

05-17-2006, 11:52 AM

Wait... I said that? Where?[http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=467803&postcount=230

Caranlondien

05-17-2006, 11:57 AM

Well, that took a long time to get through :D

I must admit that further consideration, along with the points people have made in my absence, have changed my mind about my major suspects. I don't really know what to think about Eomer. As for Lommy, her posts toDay seemed calm and considering.

I don't see Alcarillo or Fea as that wolvish-looking. They've both come under fire for some in-character posting, and I just don't suspect them for that. So they're not on my suspect list for toDay.

So, current suspects... It's already been pointed out that Zali was rather eager to jump on the Eomer bandwagon, though that may just have been bad timing, since she had to vote early.

Diamond's posts, despite what she may say, have seemed overly-confident in her theories. She's backed off about them now, though.

My lorebooks only tell of Roa as a wolf, so I don't have much to go by as to her ordinary-villager behavior. But her vehement attack against Nogrod yesterDay could very well have been an EW bluff.

Those three are my suspects right now, though I really must go back over toDay's posts. Some of them I only had time to skim so far...

Feanor of the Peredhil

05-17-2006, 11:57 AM

Jenny... there's a reason I used a smiley! D'ya think he actually thought I was EW? Remember why I said he wasn't? Because he's not stupid. I'd like to think that I'm equally intelligent, thank you. Teasing was simply teasing.

"Fea's evil." "Yes, dear, of course I am. :rolleyes: Now let's be serious, shall we?"

The reason I came back to the village (read: my computer): whether I can get a lengthy post up or not, I'll be back to vote before the day ends.

Valier

05-17-2006, 12:02 PM

Not only that, but people seem to have missed one ibvious factor of the EW's choices. The EW would want to pick people who wouldn't be likely choicces of the GW. This way, he/she/it keeps the werewolf count high, and avoids being discovered longer. For these reasons, I think Loki's claim is a likely one.

I found this as well and it seems to have been true....I think Nogrod and Naria would have been bad picks for the GW, hence good picks for the EW. Also Loki could be in this list as well... Sounds Fishy to me that Roa's "plan" came true...Could just be a coincedence, but I doubt it...

Eomer of the Rohirrim

05-17-2006, 12:02 PM

Precisely Gurthang! That's what made me hesitate to post the theory, because Fea might do all that stuff anyway. She does come across as a bit.....well, a bit much, if you'll follow me. Plus, if I may take the chance to use a line they always use against me: "We're gonna lynch her anyway, might as well do it now!" :p

(That wasn't serious, by the way.)

Oh, Kit. That hurts me. Is it because I said you'd make an ace EW pick? I'll forgive you: SPM and Naria's doom must still be hurting you.

Diamond's thoughts on Azaelia are interesting. I will go to scour these words...

mormegil

05-17-2006, 12:03 PM

Catching up after a meeting and I'm on post 443 and I have a couple of things to say.

Alcarillo -- I don't find in character posting to be all that suspicious

But when it's really the only thing you've done it looks a lot more suspcious in my mind.

Regarding Eomer's theory it appears to be more or less what I said about him doesn't it. In essence he thinks Fea might be because she's spoken about the EW a lot. I don't think it's convincing but it's worth considering. I pride myself on being able to assess Fea well enough and I think her likely innocent currently.

dancing spawn of ungoliant

05-17-2006, 12:06 PM

I was first alerted to Fea's behaviour by her constant 'sighs' that she will get herself killed. It's there in posts #79, #83 and #87. "Oh, this strategy will get me killed!" But all she was doing is advocating killing those shady characters whom the village never trusts. Hardly an outrageous suggestion. It struck me as trying too hard to stay alive.That was something that seemed strange to me, too. I've been thinking that Fea could possibly be the EW, and I will certainly keep looking for EWish signs in her posting.

Valier, the fact that Roa's and Nogrod's ancestors have had a quarrelsome history made me wonder, too, if Roa's attack on Nogrod was meant to be just a clever cover, but I really don't think we should look for evidence in the narrations.

Thus far the votes are:

Zali -> Eomer
Nilp -> Zali
Celuien -> Alcarillo
Diamond -> Zali

spawn is doomed You're always so cheery, my dear boy. :p

Eomer of the Rohirrim

05-17-2006, 12:06 PM

Morm, I must disagree. Your case against me was pretty much that I was pulling off this tremendous bluff. My case against Fea concerned her odd behaviour and ideas.

Anyway, Valier: could you explain why Nogrod and Naria would have been bad picks for the GW? I'm not sure I get it.

Valier

05-17-2006, 12:15 PM

According to my lorebooks Eomer, both Naria and Nogrod's ancestors were always highly suspected in the early days and most of the time found to be baddies or Goodies, so the GW would stay away from people they know will get killed early on, but the EW would think the other way...since these two get suspected as evil most of the time, they (EW) would hope they would get dismissed on these points this game....I hope this makes sense..:D My ansestors in the Lore books have always made strange connections like this and they mostly work out and as I attempted to sleep last night (RL) I made these connections. After I learned that Naria was infact a wolf as was Nogrod, my brain came up with connections between Roa, Diamond, Kath or Sleepy as the EW and after I read through their posts, I begain to see odd things as I have posted above.

mormegil

05-17-2006, 12:28 PM

I know this is in the Narration, but I find this extremely odd as well......Weaving TALES are we? You know....this sounds like Roa's making alot of bluffing stories....I know we shouldn't use this, but where does it say that there isn't a shred of truth in the deaths?

I'll stop here and comment again.

Valier whatever we think of Roa it's not fair to include a quote from the narration into our discussion. LMP wouldn't give away any hints about the status of anybody so please do not use this as any evidence.

Valier

05-17-2006, 12:32 PM

Ok, Ok I won't use the narration against her....I know LMP is not daft,:cool: but where does it say that we may not use the narration? I found other odd things by Roa besides the narration though.

mormegil

05-17-2006, 12:35 PM

Morm, I must disagree. Your case against me was pretty much that I was pulling off this tremendous bluff. My case against Fea concerned her odd behaviour and ideas.

The way I see it Eomer is that we are both saying "Here's a character that is acting in such a way that they could be the EW if said person behaves in a particular way." Both people we theorized about behave the way necissary to meet those conditions however, that is normal behavior for those individuals therefore it might go either way. I'm not saying there isn't merit to your arguement but like mine it's rather contingent and a bit circumstantial.

PS sorry for making so many short post in a short amount of time but that's the way it's had to be today playing catch up.

mormegil

05-17-2006, 12:39 PM

Ok, Ok I won't use the narration against her....I know LMP is not daft,:cool:
Good!

but where does it say that we may not use the narration?

YOU MAY NOT USE THE NARRATION FOR EVIDENCE!!!!

It says it right here :)

I found other odd things by Roa besides the narration though.

Great than use those not the narration it is unfair to those who you are attempting to incriminate and unfair to restrict LMP from writting what he desires to write as to avoid suspicion being cast upon that person.

Valier

05-17-2006, 12:43 PM

Great than use those not the narration it is unfair to those who you are attempting to incriminate and unfair to restrict LMP from writting what he desires to write as to avoid suspicion being cast upon that person.

Agreed!:)

Lalaith

05-17-2006, 12:46 PM

Oh, Kit. That hurts me. Is it because I said you'd make an ace EW pick? I'll forgive you: SPM and Naria's doom must still be hurting you.

What links Saucie and Naria in your mind, master Eomer? Please elaborate.

Caranlondien

05-17-2006, 12:50 PM

What links Saucie and Naria in your mind, master Eomer? Please elaborate.
I may be at a loss for actual theories right now, but at least I can explain this one. :D SPM was Kitanna's father, and Naria was his sister.

Lalaith

05-17-2006, 12:54 PM

I was so engrossed in the game, I'd forgotten those blasted family trees. Thanks, Caran.

Caranlondien

05-17-2006, 12:55 PM

Oops, I meant "her sister"; Naria was Kitanna's sister.

dancing spawn of ungoliant

05-17-2006, 12:55 PM

Time for me to vote.

I was debating with myself whether I should vote for Celuien or Zali since both of the ladies look rather suspicious to me. Still, Zali's behaviour with all the apologies etc. makes me suspect her a tad more, so here goes.

++Azaelia

Good Night!

Thinlómien

05-17-2006, 01:11 PM

It's my time to go also.

++Eomer

I see that we're going to have three lynching candidates (Alc, Zali, Eomer) and of those I don't suspect Zali and as if Eomer's a baddie he's probably the EW, but if Alc is a baddie he's probably just a wolf, so I think Eomer is more dangerous.

I think we should be concentrating on possible EWs by now.

Good night.

Valier

05-17-2006, 01:16 PM

I just noticed, but on POST #267 on pg.7 The Phantom put an arrow in his post, was he the Hunter by then? and if so this is perfect for Roa, she would see this and kill him not thinking he would pick Naria to kill....wait did he pick her?:confused: She also wouldn't fret knowing she could make another wolf even if he did pick one to bring with him.....Hmmmmmm weird indeed!

Valier

05-17-2006, 01:21 PM

Also does anyone think NO TIME NOW in the Phantom's post could be an anagram? I don't know why he would put one in there, but you never know....and I have no idea how to solve those darn things!

Gurthang

05-17-2006, 01:30 PM

Quick glance at Celuien, Zali, and Diamond.

Diamond:

#13 - Says she won't vote family Day 1, but later on will if necessary. This was followed by a list of everyone; most of them being 'accused'. She did say Nogrod would be evil and that Naria was inhuman, but I wouldn't give that a lot of weight, since she said the same about most of us.

#14 - Pokes at Loki and warns him about overreacting.

#25 - Defends Nogrod against Loki's rebutal. Again warns Loki about sportmanship.

#27 - Says post about everybody (#13) was just for prediction sake and hopes they don't come true. Talks to Alcarillo about children.

#28 - Gives possible reasons why Loki might have been the one scried by both wizards. Still doubts though.

#30 - Reverts Celuien's question about Loki to Nogrod. Says she thinks Nogrod might be acting strange and that she saw what she expected from Loki.

#35 - Responds to phantom's comment about flattery.

#39 - Looks forward to phantom's list of how wizards will act. Says she doesn't have any idea. Also says it's unlikely that we'd find the EW early, but if we did the wolves wouldn't stand a chance.

#43 - Thinks Naria's right with her response to phantom's "what do the wizards fear" question. Makes a joke for her own response.

#50 - Babbles about wizard behavior. Says EW won't be loud, but then again he might. Throws lorebooks into a fire.

#76 - Attacks (jokingly) Nilp for voting Nogrod. Marks that Nilp and morm have been quiet. Votes for Loki. Gives reasons.

Celuien:

#10 - Standard first post: Defends family, mildly accuses Eomer, doubts Loki's claim, and advises a clear head.

#19 - Quotes morm concerning Eomer. Agrees, but seems like mother-protecting-daughter reason. Spars at Diamond over family insult or something like that.

#29 - Says we should wait about Loki and that he is not unlike what she expected.

#61 - Remarks about Nilp not voting for himself.

#78 - Talks about GW revealing. Also mentions EW strategy and is reluctant to employ wizard spotting as it might flush out GW. Doesn't want to vote for any of the current candidates.

#142 - Gives reasons she will not vote for Loki. Doesn't think EW would risk discovery to defend wolves.

#145 - Thinks Nilp wouldn't be a wolf. Goes through post thinking about who EW would curse.

#164 - Voting list.

#169 - Says gut tells her Nogrod is innocent.

#181 - Analysis of Loki, Lommy, and Nogrod. Votes for Lommy for being a good EW pick and her sudden switch to vote for Loki.

#184 - Clarifies Day End time.

#186 - Responds to phantom about EW bluffing.

#201 - Voting Update.

#203 - Replies to a comment by the phantom and says she now knows he's not the EW.

#206 - Says goodbye to Loki. Comments that she doesn't think him a wolf.

Zali:

#104 - Warns against discounting anyone. Says Loki gets her on edge.

#196 - Agrees EW must be found. Votes Loki. Reasons include him being confusing and he worries her. Makes a point to say vote is not due to newbieness and that she has valid suspicion. Aplogizes for lack of participation.

That's only Day 1. Sorry, but I am tired of looking through all of it. After going through all of the first Day, I have nothing on Azaelia. Celuien is looking less suspicious also, mainly because she seemed to give good analysis and reasons for her vote.

Now, Diamond is something else. I think I may vote for her. One of the main reasons is that she seems to shift her view to fit what people say to her. Specifically I would point to #25 where she defends Nogrod against Loki, then when Celuien asks her something she turns to Nogrod with suspicion and says she saw what she expected from Loki. In the end she ended up voting for Loki. Also, she talks a lot, which is obvious and not necessarily bad, but a lot of it is role-playing and not as much constructive to the task at hand. I'm not too keen on that.

I don't want to waste my vote, though, so I'll only vote Diamond if there's still a chance to lynch her. Although, of the three candidates so far, I don't want to vote for Eomer or Azaelia. I'd have to do some research on Alcarillo to see what I think. I've got about an hour before I have to vote, so I'll see what happens.