Tol-in-Gaurhoth XXI: Dueling Wizards Werewolf [Archive] - Page 3

Celuien

05-17-2006, 03:24 PM

The deadline draws near, so there isn't time for my ususl elaborate analysis.

Roa:
174: Defends Loki. Says that the EW will pick unlikely GW choices.
200: Does not suspect Loki. Questions Nogrod’s motives in attacking Loki. Votes for Nogrod.
258: States Loki was believable because no one contradicted his claim and because of his timing. Says Nogrod was the one who caused confusion.
274/277: Analysis of Nogrod.
287: More explanation to Fea about Loki. Asks not to vote randomly.
295: Votes Nogrod for the second time.
324/336: Presses Nogrod about his attack on Loki, more explanation of why she finds him suspicious.
493: More about Loki to Fea. Wants to know what Valier is talking about with her theories. Agrees with morm about the narration thing. Wonders why Valier is so eager to be rid of her.
509: Says that Valier’s record is less than stellar. Doesn’t understand suspicion of Alcarillo.

I see nothing here to suggest to me that Roa is the EW. The cannon-fodder theory non-withstanding, I can't see the EW attacking Nogrod as strongly as Roa did very consistently for two days. While Nogrod was a perfect set-up, he also made a dangerous wolf, and losing him would have been a blow to the evil team.

My suspicion of Alcarillo does stem from what happened to the SPM, along with his overly in-character defensiveness. Granted, there's nothing wrong with talking about village affairs, but as both morm and my late husband pointed out, the wolves do not respect village relationships. Talking only about village happenings and connections to the diminishment of wolf-hunting debate is detrimental to finding the wolves and their foul master. And it gives a way to talk, look friendly, and hide in the open without leaving a trail.

I also agree that the narrations should not be taken as clues. That doesn't seem to be the style of our Great Seal. ;)

And, again, the phantom was not the hunter until last night, so Valier's theories about him can't be right. And I'm puzzled by her attack on Roa, who really does not seem suspicious to me. I'll be keeping an eye on her. Two eyes, in fact, when I can spare them.

Eomer of the Rohirrim

05-17-2006, 03:26 PM

I too will have a look at Celuien. I may follow my dear mother and my (apparently not-so-loving) beloved in today's voting. I don't actually feel comfortable voting for Azaelia because it's very easy to get caught up in bandwagons and I don't want to cast what would effectively be a grudge vote.

Back soon!

Celuien

05-17-2006, 03:29 PM

"pointless arguement"
And I forgot to answer this, not that it makes any difference to your vote now. I consider it pointless in that my books of werewolf lore show that villages can be easily caught up in debating incorrect points to the exclusion of others. I absolutely do not want to be the subject of such a debate - all it does is divert attention from our real targets, the EW and its wolves.

And what would the point be? Other than distracting the village and getting a dead innocent if the debate did turn against me, it would accomplish nothing. So yes, pointless. :rolleyes:

Firefoot

05-17-2006, 03:29 PM

Firefoot is the one that really draws my attention. After her strong defense of Nogrod before, and her imediate jump to help morm collect evidence against Eomer, she's looking really bad. I'm almost surprised that no one else has commented on this. Not that I'm trying to make myself look bad, but I haven't really been trying to avoid it, either. I jump on theories that make sense and have some backing. Morm's theory did. I'm also pretty stubborn, which is why once I decided yesterDay that Nogrod was innocent, I stuck with it. Take it as you will.

But I'm really on the run right now, so although I had enough time to read through everything, I don't have any time to comment. I'm going to stick with my instinct and go with

++Eomer

mormegil

05-17-2006, 03:30 PM

I just realized that we haven't really spoken much about Eonwe. I know we've mentioned Sleepy but Eonwe has the same number of posts, 3, so it's something to keep in mind. I never hold with those that are too quiet if you know what I mean not enough information to go on. I expect to see more of him or I will suspect him of hiding behind silence at least Sleepy has given us reasons.

Eomer of the Rohirrim

05-17-2006, 03:32 PM

Sorry Firefoot, but you are wrong in this. (Or evil, perhaps.)

Don't want to vote Celuien either.

++VALIER

Attack on Roa seems too weird to me. Seemed to slide into trouble with her thoughts on the phantom and is trying to scramble out of it. Doesn't make a lot of sense to me.

Celuien

05-17-2006, 03:33 PM

1. Azaelia --> Eomer (Eomer-1)
2. Nilp --> Azaelia (Eomer -1, Azaelia-1)
3. Celuien --> Alcarillo (Eomer-1, Azaelia-1, Alcarillo-1)
4. Diamond --> Azaelia (Eomer-1, Azaelia-2, Alcarillo-1)
5. spawn --> Azaelia (Eomer-1, Azaelia-3, Alcarillo-1)
6. Thin --> Eomer (Eomer-2, Azaelia-3, Alcarillo-1)
7. Sleepy --> Fea (Eomer-2, Azaelia-3, Alcarillo-1, Fea-1)
8. Fea --> Roa (Eomer-2, Azaelia-3, Alcarillo-1, Fea-1, Roa-1)
9. mormegil --> Alcarillo (Eomer-2, Azaelia-3, Alcarillo-2, Fea-1, Roa-1)
10. Kath --> Valier (Eomer-2, Azaelia-3, Alcarillo-2, Fea-1, Roa-1, Valier-1)
11. Gurthang --> Azaelia (Eomer-2, Azaelia-4, Alcarillo-2, Fea-1, Roa-1, Valier-1)
12. Valier --> Roa (Eomer-2, Azaelia-4, Alcarillo-2, Fea-1, Roa-2, Valier-1)
13. Cailín --> Celuien (Eomer-2, Azaelia-4, Alcarillo-2, Fea-1, Roa-2, Valier-1, Celuien-1)
14. Kitanna --> Celuien (Eomer-2, Azaelia-4, Alcarillo-2, Fea-1, Roa-2, Valier-1, Celuien-2)
15. Firefoot --> Eomer (Eomer-3, Azaelia-4, Alcarillo-2, Fea-1, Roa-2, Valier-1, Celuien-2)
16. Eomer --> Valier (Eomer-3, Azaelia-4, Alcarillo-2, Fea-1, Roa-2, Valier-2, Celuien-2)
17. Jenny --> Valier (Eomer-3, Azaelia-4, Alcarillo-2, Fea-1, Roa-2, Valier-3, Celuien-2)

28 minutes to go...

JennyHallu

05-17-2006, 03:33 PM

Time I need to vote:

++Valier for vehement attacks without careful reading of the actual posts and rules beforehand. She's just giving me a nervous feeling...

Eomer of the Rohirrim

05-17-2006, 03:37 PM

mormegil

05-17-2006, 03:41 PM

Here's a point I might not get to make tomorrow. Thinlomien is forever saying "Oh, it looks like the voting's between him and her today" — always giving us a shortlist (well, it happened at least twice!). That looks quite silly, especially the way voting has gone today as a number of people have their necks on the line.

Could this be construed as malicious in any way?

Of course it could but I rather believe it's merely a bit short sighted. She seems to not consider that things change and when she does say them the count and the atmosphere would suggest so. I find no reason in doing this but I don't see much harm in it but possibly could be coupled with a bit of the oddities associated with Thinlo but currently I think her innocent.

Roa_Aoife

05-17-2006, 03:42 PM

I doubt that seriously, Eomer. It seems less like malice, and more like an attempt to instill order in what could easily end up being a chaotic situation.

well, I hate to create a 4 way tie, but I don't believe in the guilt of either Eomer or Zali, and I think Valier is just a highly misguided innocent who needs to read things more carefully.

++Celuien

The points made by Spawn were enough to convince me. I'm afraid that's all I really have time for right now.

littlemanpoet

05-17-2006, 03:42 PM

I know this is in the Narration, but I find this extremely odd as well......Weaving TALES are we? You know....this sounds like Roa's making alot of bluffing stories....I know we shouldn't use this, but where does it say that there isn't a shred of truth in the deaths?
DO NOT USE THE NARRATIONS AS CLUES. CLUES DON'T EXIST IN THE NARRATIONS.

Eomer of the Rohirrim

05-17-2006, 03:44 PM

I can't believe I have to leave. :rolleyes:

Well, I might not see you again. I'd love to share some words of wisdom in case you do lynch me but I have nothing useful to say. So I'll just hope you don't kill me. I'll tell you this though: I'm not the Seer. I'm a completely ordinary villager. So if you want to make sure you're not killing the Seer then kill me. I know I haven't been especially useful in this game but there you have it.

Good luck villagers!

Celuien

05-17-2006, 03:44 PM

Well, I hate to create a 4 way tie, but I don't believe in the guilt of either Eomer or Zali, and I think Valier is just a highly misguided innocent who needs to read things more carefully.
Actually, I think Zali is still in the lead with four votes. Eomer, Valier and I all have three unless I've miscounted.

Well, if I die today, at least I'll be able to go with a clear conscience. :rolleyes:

Valier

05-17-2006, 03:45 PM

*On knees, begging for forgiveness* I appologize! It will not happen again! I see that my ways were wrong and unfair....:(

Roa_Aoife

05-17-2006, 03:47 PM

Actually, I think Zali is still in the lead with four votes. Eomer, Valier and I all have three unless I've miscounted.

Ah, I see. I missed Nilp's vote. My bad.

Caranlondien

05-17-2006, 03:51 PM

Valier

05-17-2006, 03:53 PM

Six more people left to vote and less then ten minutes left in the game......Dun, Dun DUUUUHHH!!! (Those were sound effects if you couldn't tell)

Edit: make that five...

Celuien

05-17-2006, 03:54 PM

Sings: Where have all the flowers gone?

There's now a tie between Zali and me.
There are no multiple lynchings.
If the tie remains unbroken, which of us dies? I have a feeling that either way we've lost an innocent.

Caranlondien

05-17-2006, 03:54 PM

Lalaith

05-17-2006, 03:54 PM

Oh dear, I knew I shouldn't have left it so long to vote.
Well, I don't think Zali is the most likely wolf, she's too like Naria if you know what I mean.
I would rather keep Eomer around for a while, I'm inclined to trust him. (Although look at my instincts about Nogrod, completely out, but there you go...)
So as I've been uneasy about her since yesterday anyway, I'll go for

++CELUIEN

Caranlondien

05-17-2006, 03:55 PM

If the tie remains, Zali goes because she reached 4 first.

EDIT: Cross-posted with Lalaith, who broke the tie...

Roa_Aoife

05-17-2006, 03:55 PM

You were right the first time, Valier. The current non-voters are:

Lhuna, Glirdan, Alcarillo, Oddwen, and Eonwe.

Edit: removing Lal from my list.

Lalaith

05-17-2006, 03:56 PM

I forgot to mention Valier, sorry...I'm not happy about her either and will look at her more closely tomorrow, if we are all spared....

Celuien

05-17-2006, 03:57 PM

Well, there you have it. I'm toast unless two votes show up in the next five minutes.

When will they ever learn?

I am innocent. And I die with no stain of joining the team that killed my husband.

Best of luck to all of you anyway. Get those wolves and that dastardly EW for me!

Fare well.

Celuien

05-17-2006, 03:57 PM

And yes, take a good look at the bandwagoners on me tomorrow. You may find an EW or wolf in there.

Valier

05-17-2006, 03:57 PM

Feel free to look at me deeply tomorrow if I don't get killed by evil Roa and her wolves overnight....I have nothing to hide!:)

Roa_Aoife

05-17-2006, 03:58 PM

Of course, now the EW will kill Valier just to make me look guilty. :rolleyes:

Valier

05-17-2006, 03:59 PM

Now that would be funny!!!^^^

littlemanpoet

05-17-2006, 04:01 PM

Voting is now done.

Evil Wizard, pick a player to curse.

Good wizard, pick a player to scry.

Seer, pick a player to dream.

Werewolves, nominate one player to kill.

The Narration for today will be up in a few hours.

Roa_Aoife

05-17-2006, 04:01 PM

I would find it less so.

Edit: EEP! Cross posted with the Mod! Sorry!

littlemanpoet

05-17-2006, 05:51 PM

Moon-of-Earth-Girl. Lhunardawen had not always been sad. Hers had been a happy childhood. Whereas she took after her mother in appearance, she took after her father in outlook. It was as she began to grow older that the swinging battledores were less often hidden. Lhuna would run from the house rather than witness her father thwacked for yet another practical joke or prank greeted with wrath.

When she found Eonwe, she felt that she had her means to happiness. That was before three miscarriages, two still births, and a sole surviving toddler drowned in a freak riptide. Lhuna had been on the beach when it happened, near the Watcher rock when it happened. When she could not see her baby anywhere, she panicked and sought help from nearby villagers. It was many hours later that they found the little body washed up on the shore. Stone faced and numb, she had carried the inert form past the Watchers, and looked up at them: tears streamed down their faces. She melted in grief.

When the curse came, and her grandfather was the first to be killed, Lhuna hid herself away. She listened a little to the discussions, but lynching did not seem a thing to be done. Cold hearted and cruel, it seemed to her, and she could hardly bring herself to vote that first day. On the second day she wandered in the fields and did not attend any of the discussions. She came back into Sealville just as the sun was setting; to her horror, her father was being lynched. "No!" she cried, but no one heard her. To her greater horror, she watched her very own mother step forward to kick the stool away that would kill the man she had married. Greatest horror of all, her father changed into something ghastly before her eyes. Something in her snapped. She wandered back into the fields and hills, and slept under the unseeing stars. None came for her; they had more pressing matters, those who prowled the night streets.

On the third day, she stayed away yet again, but not amongst the hills. She needed to be closer to the Watchers, for it seemed to her that they would offer some protection, or at least give the fleeting impression that such protection might just be possible.
~ * ~
Celuien was so named by her father Mormegil because she was a fountain of joy to him. This was less so when she chose Saucy for her husband, but joyful she remained. A bright spirit she was in the village, and chose to be a healer ..... and cupper, learning the arts from a gammer who died not long after and does not come into this tale. So both the herbs and spices she plied, and the leech and cup as well, both in good measure.

When the curse came to the village, it was hard on Celuien to lose her husband one night, then one of her daughters the following night. Harder yet came the realization that her late daughter was no doubt the cause of her husband's demise. It left her shaken and a bit loose with her tongue.

"You probably think I'm the evil wizard. Well, I'm not."

Those who heard, wondered why she brought the suspicion upon herself, thinking that it was perhaps a ploy to come out early and thus throw off her suspecters late.

"Think what you will of Celuien," said Mormegil, "but my attention is elsewhere. Eomer is a brazen character and wouldn't shirk at the thought of killing off his wolves, looking at the vote for Nogrod indicates he did just that."

"Yes," said Firefot, "Eomer seems alarmingly obsessed with the Evil wizard."

"Eomer makes me nervous," said Feanor.

"I'm just a bit uneasy about Mormegil," Caranlondien said.

"The wolves probably know who each other are," said Diamond. "And what if Eomer's the good wizard?"

"I'm not saying Eomer is innocent, but I am quite surprised by this sudden tidal wave of support for his death," Gurthang asserted.

"Ack!" Diamond cried. "This is downright suicide inducing!"

Just then, Lalaith ran up as if she was looking for something. "I'm sorry, I'm going mad," she sobbed. "Where did Elempi put that post, I can't find it."

"What post?" asked Alcarillo. "There are many holding up the buildings and such. Besides, Elempi wasn't doing much besides writing bad poetry."

Eomer spoke up at last. "I'm not the Evil Wizard. I'm not the Good Wizard. I'm not anything but a tired young man who wants to settle down in a peaceful village. This dream does not look as if it will come true. Oh, and Spawn is devastating."

"I'm devastating?" Spawn asked, unbelievingly.

"Spawn is doomed," murmured Gurthang.

"You're always so cheery, my dear boy," Spawn retorted.

"Nilp seems surprising insightful," Mormegil offered.

"On the contrary," Kath objected, "Nilp has been behaving most oddly."

"I must be the worst mother ever," Diamond moaned. Nobody disagreed with her.

And on and on the discussions went until Nilpaurion cast the second vote (Zali had cast the first), but that had been so early that the folk wanted more time to discuss.

Zali was the nominee of choice early. Eomer, Alcarillo, and Roa also garnered a couple of votes. Then Valier started spouting theories, which, rather than gathering momentum, got her nominated for lynching. But the greatest number of votes went to Celuien. Out of twenty votes cast, she received five. It was enough.

"Come, Celuien, my d- No! No!" cried Mormegil. "I can't truss up my own daughter! Even if she did marry a brew gobbing scoundrel!"

"I know!" said a voice that sounded to some like Diamond, to others like Kath, and yet others like Firefoot. "Let's use her cups and leeches to lynch her!"

"No!" Celuien screamed. "That is most untidy!"

But it was to no avail. They tied her to a chair and set the leeches and cups to her arms and legs. She did not stop talking the whole time, but her words became more slurred and weak as the time passed. At last her pallid head dropped for the last time. The villagers waited for a hoped for transformation, or for her to magically wake up and fill back up with her own blood, assuming that the evil wizard had the power to do this. It did not happen.

As the sun was setting they carried Celuien's body to the new graveyard and dug another grave. Mormegil had insisted upon it. "We'll not make the Watchers bury our dead, especially not the innocent ones."

As they dug the grave, Eomer, taking a break, looked down to the shoreline. "Look!" he said. "There's something down there! I wonder if it's a werewolf or something?"

Half of the villagers left off digging and went down to the shore to see what had washed up.

It was Lhunardawn, soaked and without breath. This was no act of village will, nor of the evil wizard. This was a life taken in grief. The shadows lengthened as evening fell. But the shadows seemed darker this day. Those who looked up at the Watchers saw streams of tears. They silently laid Lhunardawen, the phantom, and Naria, side by side next to Celuien, in four new graves. It was late when they returned to the village and to their homes. Not far from anyone's mind was the likely horror of the night. Who would die next?

~ The Tally ~

One evil wizard
One good wizard
Two werewolves
One seer

~ The Dead ~

Elempi, father of Diamond of the Battledore, killed on Night One
Loki the leech collector, lynched on Day One: innocent
The Saucepan Man the barkeep, killed on Night Two: innocent
Nogrod the retired jester, lynched on Day Two: werewolf
the phantom the loud, unpredictable, adventurer
Naria the servant who empties and cleans chamber pots
Celuien the Healer and Cupper
Lhunardawen the jeweler

~ The Living ~

Diamond of the Battledore
Caranlondien the Sled-Team Driver
Roa Aoife the weaver
Dancing Spawn of Ungoliant the Baker
Kath the minstrel
Lommy the little girl who steals other children's candy
Glirdan with the giant crush on Kath
Valier the gardener
Sleepy Ranger the former wanderer
Kitanna the beloved of Eomer
Firefoot the artist
Alcarillo the old retired sea captain
Cailín the match maker
Oddwen the filthy, insane street urchin who steals chickens
mormegil the retired mariner and current mayor
Feanor the shepherdess with a love of alliteration
Zali the seamstress and beloved of the phantom
Jenny Hallu the unmarried maiden & aunt
Lalaith the frivolous aunt and guardian of Oddwen
Eonwe the freeloading husband of Lhunardawen
Eomer the adventurer & lover of Kitanna
Nilpaurion the ne'er do well hubby of Dancing Spawn
Gurthang the stable-hand

littlemanpoet

05-18-2006, 03:38 PM

The evil wizard rung both hands in the night. It was dark save for a single candle, hidden from the eyes of would be snoopers, deep underground. The evil wizard had planned to be the evil wizard even before the title and power had been given. None knew of this secret place.

Things were not going well. Worse, the evil wizard was not sure what the source of the trouble was, other than plain bad luck. Only two werewolves! After all the evil wizard had done right! It was as if something more than luck had been plotting for the evil wizard's demise. The evil wizard poured over the list of living villagers, trying to decide which one would make the best curse in this bad situation.

A chill, dank and dread, came into the room. The evil wizard's spine crawled. The room darkened yet more. The Shadow had come. It whispered chill words

"The deaths are too few. Why?"

The evil wizard's voice shook. "I don't have enough werewolves!"

"What can you not achieve with one curse each night?"

"That other wizard! The cowardly one! The cowardly wizard scried on the first night! As if a warning had come!"

"Sssssss!"

"And the cowardly wizard had a hunter that could kill a werewolf in ways the lorebooks never spoke of!"

"Sssssssssssssss!"

"I am not to blame! I have done all you have said!"

"There are other powers at work here. I can smell it," breathed the Shadow. "The Watchers." The darkness lessened in its intensity for a brief moment, and the evil wizard breathed the easier, wondering what was going on. Then the intensity redoubled. "Ah! The Watchers warned the good wizard! I see the imprint of their glamour still hovering upon that night. The hunter also was specially gifted by them. How dare they!!" The evil wizard covered both ears and shrank away, for the Shadow's last words carried in the small room with a fell echo that threatened to rip the evil wizard's body from soul.

"I - I am doing all you ask!"

"The flagrancies of the Watchers I will revenge. Two curses in addition you will make tonight, by my power." Out of the darkness of the Shadow an arm of malice sprung and enveloped the evil wizard. Cold fell power drenched the evil wizard, who smiled a slow smile as the Shadow left the little room.

"Three curses tonight. It shall be an evil night." The evil wizard's smile spread with a sheen of maliced madness.

*******************

The evil wizard chose the curses for the night: three. The evil wizard was rewarded with two werewolves and one seer ungifted. "Curses!" the evil wizard cried unoriginally. "I wanted three werewolves!" But then the evil wizard thought better of it, and that evil grin spread on the evil wizard's face once again.

*******************

Meanwhile the good wizard thought about the villagers and their behavior of late, and chose one to scry. The result was a new gifted, for the villager was not a werewolf nor the evil wizard, and this villager was gifted as the new hunter.

*******************

The seer dreamed that night in relative peace, and learned of the innocence of a second villager. But suddenly the seer's eyes opened and the realization hit that the seer gift was gone.

******************

The two veteran and two new werewolves were dispatched to kill twice.

littlemanpoet

05-18-2006, 03:40 PM

Cailín was a happy woman. Match making was so much fun. She had set up Lhunardawen with Eonwe - which should have been a happy marriage, how was Cailín to know there would be so much sorrow? She had hooked up Spawn and Nilp, Saucy and Celuien, and lately Zali with the phantom and Eomer with Kitanna. It was a shame about the curse. All those great matches were falling apart! She turned over in bed. What was a matchmaker to do? She hit upon an idea. Why, Zali needed another match. Eonwe was available now. Then there was Diamond. These werewolves just might do her a favor and kill a wife so that a man would be available. She winced, horrified at what she had just thought. That wince never left her face, for two werewolves descended upon her hungrily. In moments she was eaten, her heart ripped out.

*******************

The good wizard was waiting for dawn to arrive to see who had died, when two werewolves threw themselves into the good wizard's room.

"You'll not kill me, miscreants!" Staff rose, light flared, and the werewolves ran away howling in fear and rage.

They crawled back to the evil wizard to report their failure. The evil wizard, however, smiled in maddening glee.

*****************

The villagers found Cailín at the foot of the Watcher rock. They were horrified at the mangling done to her, and not a few lost their appetites. The werewolves were getting more vicious.

~ The Tally ~

One evil wizard
One good wizard
Four werewolves
One hunter

~ The Dead ~

Elempi, father of Diamond of the Battledore, killed on Night One
Loki the leech collector, lynched on Day One: innocent
The Saucepan Man the barkeep, killed on Night Two: innocent
Nogrod the retired jester, lynched on Day Two: werewolf
the phantom the loud, unpredictable, adventurer: hunter
Naria the servant who empties and cleans chamber pots: werewolf
Celuien the Healer and Cupper, lynched on Day Three: innocent
Lhunardawen the jeweler, committed suicide on Day Three: innocent
Cailín the match maker, mauled by werewolves on Night Four: innocent

~ The Living ~

Diamond of the Battledore
Caranlondien the Sled-Team Driver
Roa Aoife the weaver
Dancing Spawn of Ungoliant the Baker
Kath the minstrel
Lommy the little girl who steals other children's candy
Glirdan with the giant crush on Kath
Valier the gardener
Sleepy Ranger the former wanderer
Kitanna the beloved of Eomer
Firefoot the artist
Alcarillo the old retired sea captain
Oddwen the filthy, insane street urchin who steals chickens
mormegil the retired mariner and current mayor
Feanor the shepherdess with a love of alliteration
Zali the seamstress and beloved of the phantom
Jenny Hallu the unmarried maiden & aunt
Lalaith the frivolous aunt and guardian of Oddwen
Eonwe the freeloading husband of Lhunardawen
Eomer the adventurer & lover of Kitanna
Nilpaurion the ne'er do well hubby of Dancing Spawn
Gurthang the stable-hand

Players may start early if they wish; Day ends at the usual time.

mormegil

05-18-2006, 04:11 PM

OUCH! I thought we were doing well too. Now we are up against four wolves which means two kills a night :eek: . We have done well to keep their numbers in check so far but after this blight I'm not sure what to make of it. Thinkin on yesterday the person who struck me as the most odd and out of character, so to speak, is Valier. This is even more so than Alcarillo, at least Alcarillo has been consistent. I'm thinking Valier was converted to a wolf the night before and buckled under the pressure.

However, I'm still nervous about Alcarillo and truly believe he is hiding under role playing.

Firefoot

05-18-2006, 04:13 PM

I'd say that our position has definitely taken a turn for the worse. Four wolves, two of whom are new and so have left no trail yet. We don't have a seer, and the EW knows who the GW is, but not vice versa. Actually, with that being true, I think that we could now start to at least seriously consider having the GW reveal him/herself. It's something that might be looked at toDay.

I'm unsurprised that Cailin was the wolves' victim last night. Just about everyone thought she was innocent.

As for Celuien, I never thought she was a good choice for lynching, but you win some and lose some, I guess. I thought the same thing about Nogrod.

I have to fly, for now... back when I have time.

Valier

05-18-2006, 04:14 PM

Ummm wow I was not expecting to live let alone find Cailin has been the one killed:( So according to the narration the EW now knows who the GW is? I think this is right...It may be in the GW's interest to hang in there one or two more Day so that they may have a full roster of gift eds before they challenge the EW, But this leaves it open for the EW (Roa) to make more werewolves...

Diamond18

05-18-2006, 04:14 PM

Then there was Diamond. These werewolves just might do her a favor and kill a wife so that a man would be available.

Despite this rather morbid suggestion, I have no intention of going after the newly widowed Alcarillo. Romantically, that is.

And what's all this about my Lhuna commiting suicide? I thought that until the village got much smaller, absences would be tolerated. Instead you take my eldest, my favorite, and turn her into a child full of woe... woe... this is about Smith isn't it? Oh never mind, great Seal, do whatever you must, I will still be strong.

Now I'm going to take a closer look at the Celuien bandwaggoners. I told you she wasn't suspicious enough to lynch, but nooooooooo, you went and killed her.

I'm still suspicious of Azaelia, but I'm going to put that line of thought on hold in favor of the whole Celuien foul up yesterday. Back with thoughts.

EDIT: By the way, I'm not suggesting LMP offed Lhuna because of me, I just noted a rather dire representation of my motherhood in the narration, and he did promise to have revenge on me. Hmph.

littlemanpoet

05-18-2006, 04:20 PM

Just to be clear, Lhunardawen requested to be taken out of the game, very sorry that she could not be more involved.

Feanor of the Peredhil

05-18-2006, 04:22 PM

Oh my.

Um... not good.

This is why I was so mouthy about finding the evil wizard. What will happen now? I assume that the evil wizard will put off killing the good wizard so that he has more time to create wolves. That means the evil wizard will be protecting the good wizard... right? So that we don't try to lynch him?

So we should be watching out for defenses...

And I'm aware I said I'd analyze everyone but I got caught up in [shepherdessing] until about 2:00 AM and then slept up until [shepherdessing] class that I was only recently released from.

I mean to do that tonight.

Gurthang

05-18-2006, 04:24 PM

I think that we could now start to at least seriously consider having the GW reveal him/herself. It's something that might be looked at toDay.

No. This is the Day for Revelation. {insert suspenseful music}

Roa_Aoife

05-18-2006, 04:27 PM

Yay! I have a chance to be here early! Oh... ew, nevermind. This seems quite unfavorable to us. Perhaps the former seer can come forward with what they found out?

This is why I was so mouthy about finding the evil wizard. What will happen now? I assume that the evil wizard will put off killing the good wizard so that he has more time to create wolves. That means the evil wizard will be protecting the good wizard... right? So that we don't try to lynch him?

I wouldn't think so. The GW can't die except by being called out to deul by the EW. There's no reason for the EW to protect the GW, since even if the GW was found out, it's no news to the EW. The EW doesn't have to deul the GW if the GW gets found out, only if the GW finds out the EW, and calls the EW out to deul.

Did that make sense?

Edit: Cross posted with Gurthang... What does that mean?

Diamond18

05-18-2006, 04:27 PM

That means the evil wizard will be protecting the good wizard... right? So that we don't try to lynch him?

I don't think Evil Wizard gives a damn. Even if we lynch the Good Wizard, this doesn't tell us or the Good Wizard who the Evil Wizard is.

I find this whole 4 wolves/GW discovery thing to be pretty demoralizing. *sigh* Especially since we lost two innocents yesterDay.

edit: X-posted with Roa and Gurthang

Caranlondien

05-18-2006, 04:28 PM

Alas, how I have rued my vote from yesterDay... But, as Firefoot said, you win some, you lose some.

I agree with Gurthang; I think the time has come for the GW to reveal him/herself. Unless they have some amazing, revolutionary plot up their sleeve, it looks like we innocents could only benefit from knowing the GW's identity.

Having, overNight, reviewed Valier's posts from yesterDay, I found myself suspecting her strongly. Her first post toDay has just confused me. How are you so certain Roa is the EW, Valier? And why do you think she would kill you, if she were?

I know this is the blasted "polling the village" and I'll be jumped upon for it, but does anyone have something in their lorebooks about Roa as an innocent? I'd like to know if she's behaving as she does when she's innocent, because, to me, her behavior so far is reminiscent of her days as a werewolf.

Diamond seemed odd to me yesterDay, but that was just intuition, and I realize I may be wrong. Her first post toDay seems normal, anyway.

I still don't know about Eomer, though for now I'm inclined to trust him, as I've other more pressing suspects.

mormegil

05-18-2006, 04:28 PM

That means the evil wizard will be protecting the good wizard... right? So that we don't try to lynch him?

So we should be watching out for defenses...

Fea this makes less sense than most things you say. We cannot lynch the GW even if we tried so why would the EW desire to protect him/her? It may be prudent to have the GW step forward so we know who he/she is too. I have an idea but I will let the GW decide. He/She could add a voice of reason and Fea you are correct that the EW probably will wait but perhaps will take his chance today while we are down our seer. One thing is certain we need to get a wolf today otherwise we're in trouble tonight.

Diamond18

05-18-2006, 04:34 PM

Roa: Either Gurthang is the Good Wizard or he thinks he knows what the Good Wizard will do? I thought it was kind of odd too, but...

Diamond18

05-18-2006, 04:38 PM

I still don't know about Eomer, though for now I'm inclined to trust him, as I've other more pressing suspects.

I don't trust ANYONE anymore. We have two new wolves overnight, blargh. Sorry for the pessimistic tone, I'm just not having much success looking over yesterDay's posts, and the knowledge that people who were innocent then are guilty now is really bugging me.

Roa_Aoife

05-18-2006, 04:39 PM

Roa: Either Gurthang is the Good Wizard or he thinks he knows what the Good Wizard will do? I thought it was kind of odd too, but...

Oh... well, Gurthang, is Diamond right?

I went more carefully through yesterday's posts, and I have to say I'm sorry I didn't vote Firefoot over Celuien. I still don't trust her, but I need to look at her a bit more closely to determine what I think.

I'm also going to take a closer look at Valier- she's acting kind of... weird....

Feanor of the Peredhil

05-18-2006, 04:43 PM

We cannot lynch the GW even if we tried so why would the EW desire to protect him/her?
Because... uh... if we try to lynch the GW, we find out for absolute certain who the GW is and then we have a definative innocent that knows several other current innocents around which to rally?

My thought was that if the GW steps forward, we have only his word on it. If we attempt to kill the good wizard, we have evidence. Surely the EW would prefer that we be as uncertain as possible without actually trying to kill anyone. I think. But if the GW does step forward, my point is moot. Right? But what's to stop wolves or the EW from stepping forward also to confuse everyone...

I have a mind-numbing headache right now that's blocking all rational thought and until it goes away, I'm leaving my computer. I'll be back later to hopefully do this stupid evaluation thing and reread this and see if it makes sense.

Firefoot

05-18-2006, 04:44 PM

No. This is the Day for Revelation. Er... care to explain? The EW knows who s/he is, some/all of the wolves probably know; the only ones who don't know are the ordinary villagers. I'm not saying that the GW should reveal themself, but I thought it might at least deserve consideration...

Valier always puzzles me; her ancestors' behavior in the lorebooks are just as unclear as they are now. She comes across as wolvish by acting about ten feet off the ground, so she gets lynched, but is actually innocent. So... I don't know.

Alcarillo, I'm starting to find suspicious if only because so many other people do. However, I'm not ready to say that I think he's a wolf.

I would like to believe that Eomer is innocent, but here, I'm afraid, his record in the lorebooks stands against him. I'm not willing to take anything he says at face value.

If it helps at all, here's the voting:

Eomer – 3 (Zali 1, Lommy 6, Firefoot 15)
Zali – 4 (Nilp 2, Diamond 4, Spawn 5, Gurthang 11)
Alcarillo – 2 (Celuien 3, Morm 9)
Fea – 1 (Sleepy 7)
Roa – 2 (Fea 8, Valier 12)
Valier – 3 (Kath 10, Eomer 16, Jenny 17)
Celuien – 5 (Cailin 13, Kitanna 14, Roa 18, Caran 19, Lalaith 20)

Did not vote: Lhuna, Glirdan, Alcarillo, Oddwen, and Eonwe

If nothing else, it tells us that the village as a whole really has no idea what it's doing...

I'd like to take a look at some of the people who haven't been getting a lot of attention. I have no idea when I'm going to have time (time! where did it all go!); probably later tonight, although I'm going to try and start now. A heads-up: I would not be surprised if I have to vote pretty early on. Tomorrow afternoon (when I usually vote) is looking pretty iffy.

Valier

05-18-2006, 04:45 PM

Having, overNight, reviewed Valier's posts from yesterDay, I found myself suspecting her strongly. Her first post toDay has just confused me. How are you so certain Roa is the EW, Valier? And why do you think she would kill you, if she were?

I know I sounded odd yesterday, but I was up all night(RL) and the connection of Roa being the EW and the wolves we have found sounded almost too good to be true...But I have thoroughly convinced myself that it is in fact Roa who is the EW. Now me voting for her today might be useless because the EW now knows who the GW is and it's only a matter of time before she (Roa) is reveiled to be the EW.And if she is the EW she can not be lynched anyways... So I would like to find a wolf today and let the wizards do their own thing when they are ready...I do think the UnSeer should come forward and tell us who they dreamt of so we can narrow our list of innocents...hoping none of them have been changed to the dark side.:rolleyes:

Firefoot

05-18-2006, 04:46 PM

My thought was that if the GW steps forward, we have only his word on it. If we attempt to kill the good wizard, we have evidence. Surely the EW would prefer that we be as uncertain as possible without actually trying to kill anyone. I think. But if the GW does step forward, my point is moot. Right? But what's to stop wolves or the EW from stepping forward also to confuse everyone... I see no reason whatsoever for the EW to step forward as the GW - that would just tell the GW who s/he was. A wolf, maybe. But I think that would definitely be contested by the real GW, and since the GW can't be lynched, well... you've got a dead wolf pretty much automatically.

Lalaith

05-18-2006, 04:47 PM

Fea, surely if a fake GW steps forward, then the real GW will be able to step forward also, (vouched for presumably by the ungifted Seer) and then we will also know an evil team member.
I don't see why we, the innocents, should be trying to discover the identity of the GW against his/her will. If the GW thinks it wise to come forward, they will. Why bully him/her?

Roa_Aoife

05-18-2006, 04:49 PM

Um, Fea, if the GW stepped forward, we could just lynch him to test his claim. And, actually, I'm not terribly opposed to that, except that we need to catch a wolf today, not a GW. The EW wouldn't really have any benefit to protecting the GW. Take some advil and possibly a nap.

Edit: I have to stop this whole cross-posting thing.

Firefoot

05-18-2006, 04:54 PM

Valier, I think your certainty of Roa being the EW is a little bit absurd. Sure, it's a possibility, but unless you're the ungifted seer, you have no way of knowing that for sure. It's all just (sometimes educated) guesswork.

Gurthang

05-18-2006, 05:00 PM

No. This is the Day for Revelation. {insert suspenseful music}

The only people that the Good Wizard does not want to know who he is are the people who currently know. He has no reason to not reveal.

*Gurthang looks about at the villagers surrounding him, all of them intent on his words. His tone and every syllable seemed so... foreboding. Yet he just stood there, looking back at them. Suddenly he threw aside the large woolen cloak he was wearing, and behold! Everyone jumped back at the sight of a BLACK cloak underneath! Not black like dyed cloth, but a swirling, rich black that seemed to spread out from him. Sure that he was the Evil Wizard, they all ran for the door, but with a word he stopped them.*

Halt! Do not leave, for I have a message that none of you should miss. Do not fear me, for I am the Good Wizard. Though my color is Black, my heart is not. I am Gurthang the Black (Sword). I have been bidden to aid you in this time of trial and up to this point it has gone well.

But it appears that our luck has run out, my fellow villagers. Evil has, it seems, gained the upper hand. But do not quell, for they are only five among us all. Now, the real battle begins.

Caranlondien

05-18-2006, 05:00 PM

Er... care to explain? The EW knows who s/he is, some/all of the wolves probably know; the only ones who don't know are the ordinary villagers. I'm not saying that the GW should reveal themself, but I thought it might at least deserve consideration...
I thought that's what Gurthang was saying...

EDIT: Hilariously cross-posted with Gurthang...

Valier

05-18-2006, 05:01 PM

I know, I know I cannot prove Roa is the EW (until she dies of course) and sadly no, I am not the unSeer. I just have a really strong feeling that's all! But I think our focus today should be on catching a wolf.

Edit: Crossposted with our GW Gurthang

Roa_Aoife

05-18-2006, 05:05 PM

*claps* Excellent reveal, Gurthang. No really, that was good. Now, is there any info for us, or do you want to keep somethings hidden from you-know-who?

Gurthang

05-18-2006, 05:08 PM

All in time. Right now I am trying to think of what to say, reading what you're saying, (and I keep getting phone calls! :mad: )

I'll tell you all that I can without telling too much. And soon.

Gurthang

05-18-2006, 05:13 PM

First, I have to get this out of the way before everything turns completely serious. :rolleyes:

When talking about who might be the Wizards, this occured:

Aye. Who have the most time in their hands? Hmm...Gurthang. Does he ever sleep at all? ;)
This made me laugh, first because I really was a wizard, and second because I had just gotten up from a night of only 3.5 hours of sleep. :D

I surely shall miss Cailín.

Firefoot

05-18-2006, 05:15 PM

I thought that's what Gurthang was saying... Which is what I was saying in the first place... hence my confusion. But moving on.

In the mean time, I have split you all roughly into four groups, the first two of which sort of overlap: people with less than 10 posts, people who I'd like to have a look at since looking at their name doesn't say anything to me, whether innocence or guilt, people that I'd just like to have another look at, and people who I'm going to ignore for now (whether because they've already received so much attention or I think them innocent etc.). Some of the people in the first group who might also fit into a different group have that number by their name...:

I
Alcarillo - III
Zali - II
Eonwe
Kitanna - II
Nilp - II
Oddwen - II
Sleepy

II
Caran
Glirdan
Kath
Jenny

III
Lalaith
Lommy
Roa
Spawn

IV
Diamond
Eomer
Gurthang
Fea
Morm
Valier

The II's are the ones I'm really worried about - the kind who just slip under the radar and no one really notices them, whether to think them innocent or guilty. The III's are the other group I'm wary of because of general suspicions against them, but I'm not ready to say any of them are wolves/EW.

Gurthang

05-18-2006, 05:29 PM

I want to point out a place where the phantom was wrong. *Gasp* He said the Good Wizard has nothing to fear. I definitely feared a great many things. Most of them along the lines of trying as hard as I could to protect the village, and then, in the very end, failing to do my job. I feared failure.

Okay, now to the important stuff. First, Loki was telling the truth. He was my scry the first night as well as one of the Evil Wizard's scries.

Second, the reason I picked a Hunter before a Ranger was because the Ranger is almost useless right now. I can't tell him who the Seer is without it being potentially deadly to the Seer later on. And a Hunter, if they die and kill, will help narrow down the Evil Wizard possibilities.

The one the Seer dreamed of two Nights ago was Cailín.

The Seer has the choice about revealing themself or not. However, I would caution against it, as it will likely result in their death, and I want them back.

As of now, I know only four innocents. And that's including myself. However, I am not going to name any of them, because one is my Hunter, one was and will be my Seer, and the other would most likely die toNight if I told of them.

JennyHallu

05-18-2006, 05:33 PM

Wow...never been accused of flying under the radar before...I'm actually kind of flattered. But I am also innocent, just been extremely busy doing housecleaning (read: new job/training at said job/weird form of insomnia accompanied by nightmares/husband's softball league/life/parents 1000 miles away moving out of house I grew up in/mentally preparing to go get stuck with lots of needles tomorrow...can I just go quietly insane and get it over with? Sounds less stressful)

I am going to have to vote within three to four hours...and for some reason have an urge to look at Kitanna (no particular reason, just...worried). I'll do that analysis, if there are no objections, Firefoot...

P.S. Gurthang, you're the greatest! Lovely dramatic reveal!

EDIT: X'd with Gurthang

Gurthang

05-18-2006, 05:38 PM

Okay, so where does this leave us?

The Evil Wizard has scried 8 times. I know four of those. The rest of you know three.

Evil Wizard did scry:

Loki
Naria
Nogrod

Evil Wizard did not scry:

The Saucepan Man
the phantom
Celuien
Lhunardawen
Cailín

Now, many of you are better at knowing who would pick who for wolves. Let's hear some ideas.

Most likely what will happen toDay, is that I will choose four candidates for lynching. You should only vote for one of those four. This will ensure that none of the known innocents are lynched.

Sadly, I do not think I can take nominees, or else the EW might be able to determine the innocents by who I do not pick.

Now, is everyone alright with this plan? If not, go ahead and speak your mind. I will not post the list until later.

Firefoot, you said you may have to vote early. When will that be?

JennyHallu

05-18-2006, 05:39 PM

I KNEW Loki was telling the truth. Couldn't believe how many doubted it...that was just far too stupid a thing to claim if you couldn't back it up.

Gurthang

05-18-2006, 05:44 PM

I just realized that the ex-Seer really has no reason not to come out. The Evildoers already know who s/he is, so s/he's got no one worth hiding from. But I'll let him/her do it anyway.

Roa_Aoife

05-18-2006, 05:46 PM

Far be it from me to argue with your plan, oh Good One, but that narrows the field considerably to protect two known innocents in a pool of.. what is it now, 22? We may see something you do not, and so find a wolf. While I'd like to trust your judgement, I'd hate to see the village limited in such a fashion.

Okay, now to the important stuff. First, Loki was telling the truth. He was my scry the first night as well as one of the Evil Wizard's scries.

In the words of Loki, I told you so. :p

Diamond18

05-18-2006, 05:50 PM

Well, this is good timing. I was just about to respond to a quote of Gurthang's from yesterday that made me all annoyed. I still might, since you never scried me and I hold a grudge for that sort of thing. :p (The longer I remain an Ordo, the grumpier I get.)

Strange, I was under the impression that Gurthang was one of those people who supposedly didn't have time to be a Wizard. Didn't we have to delay the game so he could play? So all this time, I'm ruling Gurthang out of my "possible wizard" mullings, thinking, "Oh, Gurthang wouldn't have signed up for Wizardry, not enough time." And this even after I spoke against taking that into too much consideration. *bangs head against desk*

Oh yeah, and if you use your GW status to lynch me, like you were speaking about doing yesterDay, ha and HA on you.

Okay, I''m through Day 2, and the few things that have jumped out at me from amongst the swarm... are...

Spawn seems to be rather responsible for getting Celuien lynched, even though she didn't actually vote for her. She made a post here (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=468285&postcount=401) which Eomer described as devastating and that Roa later cited as reason to lynch Celuien. It doesn't sit well with me, speaking out against a person to the extent that others lynch her, yet opting for a different votee yourself. (Spawn voted Azaelia, by the way.) Of course, as I found Zali suspicious myself, I can't exactly fault the vote. Maybe what's bothering me more isn't necessarily Spawn's post/vote, but Eomer and Roa's responses to it.

Roa's comment here bugs me:

I had completely missed the points about Celuien! I may have to reconsider voting for Firefoot.

How does one miss what was being said about Celuien?

Other things bothering my right now -- Lalaith. She seems... fishy. Can't put my finger on it, but... there's something. Firefoot worries me as well, for her eagerness to agree with Morm about Eomer. Zali still worries me. The overall population trusts Morm too much. Sleepy and Eonwe each posted only once, and such a low profile is worrisome.

Person bothering me most right now, though, is Kitanna. Not just for yesterday, but for Day 1 as well. I can't remember who she voted for on Day 2, I'll have to go find that. But yesterDay her vote for Celuien bothered me, and it still bothers me. Initially she said she was inclined to think Celuien and I innocent, then made this comment:

Diamond=
Celuien -- One of my theories makes her look very bad, but it's the same one that makes me look downright terrible, so I don't think I should be condeming her for it. In other words, if I'm innocent probably she is too.
...So you're not going with the theory that you seemed so confident of before because if you're innocent, your runner up must be innocent too? Suddenly I regret my defense of you and Celuien.

Frankly, I still don't get why a comment by me should make her regret defending both me AND Celuien. Celuien is in no way responsible for my comments.

Then this:

Well I've given some thought to all that has happened and I came down to Eomer and Celuien as my top two suspects. Eomer for his cunning ability to double bluff and for Celuien's continued defense of phantom accusations of herself. In the end I simply flipped a coin to decide who to vote for.

++ Celuien

Though I defended her and Diamond to begin with when they brought themselves to everyone's attention, when Celuien continued it and regarded anyone looking at her as a "pointless arguement" I began to suspect her even more.

First of all, what phantom accusations? What about Spawn's "devastating" post? The idea that Celuien wasn't being accused by anyone yesterday... huh? And besides, as all the posts she made yesterDay convinced me I shouldn't be voting for her, I'm puzzled that they had the oppoosite effect on Kitanna. (And others, ahem.)

I'd like to here more from Caran about her vote. YesterDay she apologized for not having enough time to give a detailed reason, and toDay she just brushes it off as "you win some, you lose some." Well, I thought yesterDay's loss of Celuien was entirely unecessary and it still ticks me off, so I find it odd that some toDay are going, "Oh well, who knew!" :mad:

Gurthang

05-18-2006, 06:00 PM

Oh yeah, and if you use your GW status to lynch me, like you were speaking about doing yesterDay, ha and HA on you.

If you are lynched toDay, I would be happy, but it will not be because I told everyone to vote for you. It's far beyond me to assume I'm so completely right about someone to make everyone else vote how I want. If I've learned anything from playing *ahem* reading my WW lorebook, it's that.

Roa_Aoife

05-18-2006, 06:04 PM

Roa's comment here bugs me:

Quote:
I had completely missed the points about Celuien! I may have to reconsider voting for Firefoot.

How does one miss what was being said about Celuien?

I can answer this quite simply: when one is on a personal trip involving one's fiance meeting one's family, and one must drive back and forth through several states, and arrive home just in time for work, which starts at 3 PM est and ends at 6 PM est , thereby giving one only a short time in which to read through all the posts of the day (which is, one must admit, a fair number) one tends to miss a few things.

I'm still concerned about Firefoot. I didn't find her answers yesterday to be wholly settling. I'll be back as soon as I can with a more thorough analysis.

Diamond18

05-18-2006, 06:12 PM

If you are lynched toDay, I would be happy, but it will not be because I told everyone to vote for you.

Even if I'm innocent? Thanks a lot.

But as I had the same opinion about Loki, guess I can't complain too loudly. But anyway, as to the quote I was talking about:

Now, Diamond is something else. I think I may vote for her. One of the main reasons is that she seems to shift her view to fit what people say to her. Specifically I would point to #25 where she defends Nogrod against Loki, then when Celuien asks her something she turns to Nogrod with suspicion and says she saw what she expected from Loki. In the end she ended up voting for Loki. Also, she talks a lot, which is obvious and not necessarily bad, but a lot of it is role-playing and not as much constructive to the task at hand. I'm not too keen on that.

One, I did not defend Nogrod in the game sense. I defended him against what I thought was a too personal and non-game relevant attitude in Loki's responses. You may recall that I called Nogrod's initial post "not strictly logical but containing no malice outside the game dynamics." That was my big Nogrod defense. And I didn't shift my view to fit what Celuien said -- she reminded me of something I had wanted to say but go sidetracked from saying because of Loki's behavior. I voted for Nogrod the next day because he was striking me as odd the entire game thus far.

Also, your last comment is just insulting, so whatever. I seem to have fallen into defending myself personally instead of defending the wolfishness/non woflishness of my actions, so again, whatever.

Valier

05-18-2006, 06:19 PM

I just realized that the ex-Seer really has no reason not to come out. The Evildoers already know who s/he is, so s/he's got no one worth hiding from. But I'll let him/her do it anyway.
Ummm would it even matter if they did come out? Because chances are that whoever they dreamt of may now be bad, so I think if they want to they can come out,but not unless most of the people they dreamt of are still alive, they we may have a chance to cross off some Ordo's at least for today

Gurthang

05-18-2006, 06:29 PM

First off, Diamond, you're overreacting. I apologize for insulting you, I did not mean to. No, I would not be happy if we lynched you and you were an innocent. I would be quite angry at myself. And if it makes any difference, I was not planning on putting you on the list; well, if I even end up making a list. :rolleyes: I've only heard negative reactions to the idea so far, so I'd like to hear more.

And Valier, the only dream of the Seer that is still alive was the one last Night. And, according to the Nightly order, the Seer dreams after the Evil Wizard makes new wolves. So there have been no new wolves made since that Seer dream. Ironically, since the Nightly order is such, I wonder how the Seer even got to dream... :eek:

Roa_Aoife

05-18-2006, 06:30 PM

Ummm would it even matter if they did come out? Because chances are that whoever they dreamt of may now be bad, so I think if they want to they can come out,but not unless most of the people they dreamt of are still alive, they we may have a chance to cross off some Ordo's at least for today

The person they dreamt of last night would not have changed, as the cursing/scrying happens before the dream. So, the ex-seer knows one innocent, and the ex-seer themself is a known innocent. Then Gurthang is also a known innocent, so that would give us three people to cross of our list today. That would narrow our possible lynchees down to 19 from 22. I believe Gurthang mentioned that one of the seer's dreams was Cailin, who is died last night. So, there really is no possiblity that the ex-seer's dream is now wrong.

Gurthang

05-18-2006, 06:53 PM

Oh, and just so everyone knows, the lynch list was the phantom's idea.

Only a fool of a Good Wizard would allow his posts to point to his gifteds. As I said earlier, the strategy of the revealed GW would not be to defend the known innocent, but to lynch the known wolves (or, at the worst, lynch innocents that he doesn't know are innocents).

The GW would put forward his lynch candidates, and any member of the village who tried really hard to put forth someone of their own choosing would get a response from the GW such as "That person isn't on my list. Shut up."

Attacking people not on the GW's approved lynch list is the same thing as an attempt to get the GW to defend someone, thus revealing to the EW and the Wolves a gifted villager.

Now, that isn't to say everyone can't give their suspicions. Naturally, the GW and Seer will read what everyone has to say and take all opinions into consideration for the nightly scry/dream, but being allowed to state opinions and refusing the leadership of the GW are two completely different things.

The GW and his gifteds are our salvation. Once he is revealed, it will be in our best interest not to argue with him or his lists, because he knows more than a common villager. Should we give our opinions? Certainly! He will use them in helping him decide which individuals to scry and move onto the lynch list, but we shouldn't demand that he change his list or anything. Disobeying him might lead to the accidental discovery of gifteds.

Anybody have questions?

I really think this is a good plan. I'll be back within an hour, probably to post my list.

Kitanna

05-18-2006, 07:04 PM

First of all, what phantom accusations?
Phantom accusations as in non existant accusations. I was not referring to the phantom.

Caranlondien

05-18-2006, 07:06 PM

I'd like to here more from Caran about her vote. YesterDay she apologized for not having enough time to give a detailed reason, and toDay she just brushes it off as "you win some, you lose some."
To answer this, what I said yesterDay when I was voting was an apology for having an apparently sudden shift in thought. I hadn't had time to post what I was thinking as I began to suspect Celuien, and I know that sudden changes can be indicative of a jumpy werewolf. In the post where I actually voted, however, I gave all the explanation I felt was needed, and all I can do toDay is repost it. I stand by my explanation, as it's truly the reason I had for voting as I did:

All right, this looks like I'm jumping on a bandwagon, but my internet connection was down and I haven't really had time to explain my thinking...

++Celuien

I don't really feel good about voting for any of the choices. I was leaning towards Zali, but I just don't want to vote for her when she's not here, for obvious reasons. And I had missed the points on Celuien, too. Sorry if you're innocent, Celuien!

As for Gurthang's plan, I personally am all for it. He's the only one I trust right now :D

Firefoot

05-18-2006, 07:10 PM

Firefoot, you said you may have to vote early. When will that be? It would be about 10 1/2 hours from now. I'm hoping not, but that's sort of how it's looking. I'm still concerned about Firefoot. I didn't find her answers yesterday to be wholly settling. I wasn't trying to be settling. But okay.

Gurthang, isn't it a little counteractive to tell us that you're going to choose the same seer? The EW knows who that is. S/he has the power to just keep ungifting or set the wolves on him/her. I would probably choose someone different.

Jenny, please do go ahead with an analysis of Kitanna. I certainly don't have time to do something in-depth on all of them...

Diamond18

05-18-2006, 07:23 PM

Phantom accusations as in non existant accusations. I was not referring to the phantom.

I know.

:rolleyes:

So, you didn't answer my question. By the point in the Day that you actually voted, and made this comment, Celuien had garnered suspicion and votes.

Roa_Aoife

05-18-2006, 07:28 PM

While I think the phantom had some good ideas (that whole hunter thing obviously worked out really well for us) I still have to disagree. Maybe it's my independant nature, but I'd really hate for the village to fall under that kind of limitation. You yourself don't know of anyone's guilt (or so you said), so all you could give us is a list of unknowns. Certainly if you find someone guilty, we should all vote for that person, but by narrowing things down so greatly, isn't it quite likely that a wolf, or even the EW, could slip past you? As I said, we may find things that you do not. Until you give us something concrete, I don't see the good of having you choose for us. Then it's just you vs them, instead of us vs. them. Besides that, the only gifted your protecting at the moment is the hunter, and isn't the hunter only useful when dead?

Diamond18

05-18-2006, 07:34 PM

Oh, and just so everyone knows, the lynch list was the phantom's idea.

Anybody have questions?

I really think this is a good plan. I'll be back within an hour, probably to post my list.

Well, I suppose it's a good plan for not revealing your Gifteds. The thing that worries me is that if you pick four people I don't have any strong suspicion of and don't think should be voted for, I'm still forced to vote for them or be considered as disobedient and evil. And the idea of having to vote for someone I more or less find innocent, lest I be castigated and lynched, rankles me.

So I suppose it depends on your list. I understand why you can't take nominees, so I guess there's really nothing I can say about who I would consider worthy lynch candidates, besides what thoughts I've already given. I feel like I've come under suspicion just because you dislike my style and don't find my posts to be particularly worthy contributions, and as I have not intended them as space wasting filler, it bothers me. But I suppose I'll just hush up now, as it doesn't matter.

Kitanna

05-18-2006, 07:40 PM

I know.

:rolleyes:

So, you didn't answer my question. By the point in the Day that you actually voted, and made this comment, Celuien had garnered suspicion and votes.
Ok, just wanted to make sure. But I wasn't talking about that, I was talking about Celuien's first post when no one had really said anything against her. I know when I voted she had gained some suspicions, but I was looking at her earlier posts from the day for the most part.

Nilpaurion Felagund

05-18-2006, 07:55 PM

Firefoot, you are innocent.

Valier (from yesterDAY) and now Roa and Di has me uneasy.

Diamond18

05-18-2006, 07:58 PM

Ummmm... Nilp, are you saying you're the Seer?

Roa_Aoife

05-18-2006, 08:00 PM

Firefoot, you are innocent.

Are you the seer? Do I need to tear my Firefoot analysis into little pieces now?

Firefoot

05-18-2006, 08:05 PM

Moving through my list:

Caran: Cailin summed my observations up very well in her analysis post:There is less information on Caran. She has posted regularly, but said less than some and even her voting pattern underlines her inclination to go with the crowd. She was suspicious of Lommy, yesterDay, as well. She has been clarifying things, tallying votes but provided few theories of her own. I do not think her particularly guilty, but not very innocent either. She might just be a little overwhelmed. She tends to shift her suspicions around a lot, following pretty much whatever everyone else is doing. Day 1 it was Loki, Day 2 it was Lommy and Nogrod, Day 3 it was Celuien and a little bit Lommy and Eomer. I'm thinking that she's probably innocent, or at least she has been. No accounting for the here and now...

Glirdan: He has been putting out some of his own ideas. There's nothing about his posts that particularly sticks out to me as being wolvish, and with him gone, he can't be the EW. Probably innocent.

Kath: I think that, at least prior to last Night, she was almost certainly innocent. Her posts have been thoughtful, to the point, and sensible. Of course, these things, and the fact that she hasn't been under much suspicion, would make her a good target to be changed into a wolf. I would consider picking her, if I was the EW. But I wouldn't lynch her yet.

Lalaith: I honestly have no clear idea why she has been under so much discussion after reading her posts. Nor do I think that she was one of the ones recently changed into a wolf; she has been under too much suspicion for that. I'm thinking that she probably is innocent.

Jenny: Okay, I'll be honest, my mind has started to wander and I'm not comfortable saying much on Jenny because of that. I would say that she is not the EW, but that's about all I'm going to say for now.

That's all I'm going to do for now, and it doesn't seem to have been terribly productive. But my focus is not with this any more, and that means time to take a break.Firefoot, you are innocent. Glad to know somebody thinks so...? What Roa and Diamond said.

Nilpaurion Felagund

05-18-2006, 08:06 PM

Good job, son. I really thought morm was the GW.

I'm still uneasy about Zali, too, vzv.

So, if you ask me what I think:

NIGHT 1: Zali, ++Nogrod, ++**Loki

NIGHT 2:++Naria

NIGHT 3: Valier

NIGHT 4: Roa, Diamond, **Nilp

++ - killed
** - scried by the GW

Diamond18

05-18-2006, 08:08 PM

Nilpy Nilpy Nilpy, where did you go? Well, I can't think of any other reason for Nilp's assurance, so... yay! Firefoot was someone I was fairly suspicious of, so it's nice to be able to take her out of contention.

x-posted with Nilp. Seems my patented "three name call" is still working.

Gurthang

05-18-2006, 08:11 PM

Frick. I am so mad. :mad:

Do you guys think I'm evil? Or stupid? Maybe you think I'm stupid.

You'd think I hadn't just come out and said I was the Good Wizard. By the way you guys are disagreeing with me, it makes me feel like I'm a moron, and I'm sick of it.

I come out, trying to provide a little order to this chaotic game, and almost all I get are complaints. Excuse me for wanting to use the phantom's plan, but I just happen to think he's one of the most intelligent Barrowdowners. Excuse me for trying my best to help this village out! Excuse me for volunteering myself for this bloody job in the first place!

There will be a list. This is it:

Azaelia
Eomer
Valier
Roa_Aoife

Please pick who you find the most suspicious from among these four.

Look familiar? It should. It's the top four after Celuien from yesterdays voting. I happen to not know anything about any of them.

What's that you say? Roa and Alcarillo tied? Oh, so they did. Well, I flipped a coin, and Roa is there for toDay.

Okay, some of you say that I shouldn't pick who's on the list since you don't think any one person should have that much power. Or something like that. Well, I agree. That's why I picked the people who everybody thought was suspicious yesterday. Ironically, yesterday 55% of those who voted picked one of these four. and remember that out of that remaining 45%, more than half voted for Celuien.

Roa_Aoife

05-18-2006, 08:17 PM

I'm going to assume this means your the ex-seer. Unless Gurthang says otherwise, I'm inclined to believe you, too. So.. . *tears up Firefoot analysis* Glad that's out of the way. Now I don't know whether to wait for Gurthang's list and risk ignoring someone truly suspicious, or to move forward on my own and risk being "disobedient." (I despise being told what I can and cannot do... does it show much?)

Edit: Cross-posted with Gurthang.

Chill out. No one accused you of anything. We don't like your plan, but that doesn't mean we think you're stupid. We just don't like the idea of having you choose who we can and cannot look at. It's not because we doubt you or your abilities, it's because we like to think things out for ourselves. As I said, it becomes more of You vs the baddies, than Us vs. the baddies, and that is something I wish to avoid. So relax. Just because we don't to accept you as our dictator doesn't me we don't like you.

Nilpaurion Felagund

05-18-2006, 08:17 PM

Do not disagree with the GW, okay?

He may get innocents lynched (statistically, he will), but he's the most powerful good guy in this village right now. He's here to help us.

Now, keep your freaking self-conservation and bloody suspicion list aside and just follow him.

He has the bigger picture, remember?

Caranlondien

05-18-2006, 08:22 PM

Okay, the fact that Nilp just came out and gave us information kind of invalidates this post I've been working on... But I'm going to post it anyway! I spent a darned long time on it! So here's what I was going to say...

About Gurthang's plan...

These are our villagers:
1. Diamond
2. Caranlondien
3. Roa Aoife
4. Dancing Spawn of Ungoliant
5. Kath
6. Lommy
7. Glirdan
8. Valier
9. Sleepy Ranger
10. Kitanna
11. Firefoot
12. Alcarillo
13. Oddwen
14. mormegil
15. Feanor
16. Zali
17. Jenny Hallu
18. Lalaith
19. Eonwe
20. Eomer
21. Nilpaurion
22. Gurthang

We now know the last of those to be the GW. So that brings us down to 21 unknowns (for us ordos, anyway). If we vote on our own, we have a 5/21 (a little less than 1 in 4) chance of getting a baddie.

Now, Gurthang knows the identities of two innocents, correct? The Hunter and the former Seer. So for him there are 19 unknowns. 5 of those 19 are baddies. So eliminating the middle steps, our chances are 5/19 of getting a baddie. The middle steps can't hurt our chances, and they might help them (I'm not so good at statistics...).

The psychological problem with the proposed plan is that the choice is less in our hands. But from a randomly speaking point of view, our chances are improved.

You might read lorebooks saying my ancestors have been known to argue against plans based on statistics. It's true. But in those cases, it was because I felt that the game wasn't random, because we were using our own judgement. But in a village this big, with so much uncertainty, and with people's roles changing, I think we are as near randomness as we can get.

Listen to the GW!

Roa_Aoife

05-18-2006, 08:23 PM

Diamond18

05-18-2006, 08:23 PM

(I despise being told what I can and cannot do... does it show much?)

Yes. And I happen to be in the same boat, so Gurthang and Nilp are going to flog us with dead fish. I don't much mind a fish flogging as long as it's not fatal.

I was going to wait until tomorrow and was heavily leaning toward voting for Kitanna, based on my finding her the most suspicious, but since I am not allowed, fine, whatever, I'm just a little Ordo and I'll let the big important Gifteds call the shots. Meh.

+ + Azaelia

Not around, can't defend herself, my own dear daughter. But I voted for her yesterDay and so she's the only real choice I'm inclined to vote for off of the list.

Oh, and I'm voting early since I don't see anymore point in saying anything that's not sanctioned by Gurthang or Nilp -- and I'm not in a mood to PM them all my posts for approval.

JennyHallu

05-18-2006, 08:25 PM

Thankfully Kitanna has made only 10 posts, which makes this much easier considering how many other things I am attempting to do at the same time.

Her first post is rather long; but this is my highlight:This caught my eye when I first read it and then I see Nogrod also feels this comment needs to be watched. Nogrod also mentioned Loki's "wolfish" defense of himself ofone little comment made. I'm not really concerned about that it's his first game and Day one. It's not all that surprising he's a bit jumpy. But the comment above has me worried. What exactly is Loki trying to tell us? Trying to taunt us?
Kitanna came out day 1 strongly against Loki and for Nogrod. So did a lot of people, but I have to admit suspicion of those who didn't even entertain the notion that Loki might be telling the truth.

Her second post is a vote for Loki, saying that she chose between Nogrod, Loki, and Lommy because they led in the votes--followed by an apology for bandwaggoning.

Post 3: An agreement of Celuien and Diamond, then a defense (sort of) of Alcarillo and myself. Really not much of a defense: She doesn't think we're likely to be wolves, but admits we might be...

Gah...I've read the posts, but I don't have time right now to go through all of them. Sorry to those looking for me to do so.

Kitanna looks like a likely wolf candidate to me, and she has been very non-commital from the get-go. Sorry, that's as much as I have time for. Now a quick read-through and a vote.

JennyHallu

05-18-2006, 08:27 PM

I'm going to vote

++Valier

For the same reasons as yesterday and because I have no more time to look closer at the others.

Nilpaurion Felagund

05-18-2006, 08:28 PM

I don't know why I bother. I'll probably be dead toNIGHT, enedwaith.

It was nice playing with you guys. Well, most of you, those who don't criticise other player's style and aren't afraid of having their styles criticised.

Let's see:

INNOCENT:
Gurthang - GW
Nilp - ex-Seer
Firefoot - last dream target.

Clear enough?

Caran, if we add the Hunter, that's 18 unknown villagers left. :)

Caranlondien

05-18-2006, 08:35 PM

Caran, if we add the Hunter, that's 18 unknown villagers left.
Yes! So my argument is not in vain, because Gurthang's choices still give us better odds!

And, on a different note...

I don't see how anything Gurthang has said takes the whole fun out of the game. He's the GW, and he's proposed a plan. It's not that he's not letting us do things. He's suggested that we follow the plan, but it's up to each of us to decide if we will follow that plan. If you choose not to, then you can try to get people to see things from your point of view, and try to explain why it doesn't make you evil!

It's all still part of the game. More importantly, it is a game!

In fact, Roa and Diamond's reactions to this, if anything, have made me less suspicious of them. I wouldn't think a baddie would respond in such a way...

Nilpaurion Felagund

05-18-2006, 08:36 PM

I'll come back with my vote by about 4pm local (GMT +8).

Diamond18

05-18-2006, 08:37 PM

Gurthang

05-18-2006, 08:39 PM

Thank you Nilp. Or should I say Dad. :D

Also, thank you Caran for not disagreeing with me.

Now, I need to catch up on questions.

Gurthang, isn't it a little counteractive to tell us that you're going to choose the same seer? The EW knows who that is. S/he has the power to just keep ungifting or set the wolves on him/her. I would probably choose someone different.
Yes and no. I was hoping that the Evil Wizard would actually believe me, and then I would do something else. Basically, if I did scry Nilp, then EW would have the wolves kill him. If I don't scry Nilp, EW does and turns Nilp to EVIL. So, I say I'll do one thing, then do another. That way, if it actually goes like I hoped, I don't scry Nilp, but the wolves still kill him, and I don't lose my scry. Although I do lose my Dad. :(

Oh, and don't worry about blowing my bluff or anything like that. Now the EW still has to guess at what I'm going to do; because now I might scry Nilp... or I might not. :D

Well, I suppose it's a good plan for not revealing your Gifteds. The thing that worries me is that if you pick four people I don't have any strong suspicion of and don't think should be voted for, I'm still forced to vote for them or be considered as disobedient and evil. And the idea of having to vote for someone I more or less find innocent, lest I be castigated and lynched, rankles me.

So I suppose it depends on your list. I understand why you can't take nominees, so I guess there's really nothing I can say about who I would consider worthy lynch candidates, besides what thoughts I've already given. I feel like I've come under suspicion just because you dislike my style and don't find my posts to be particularly worthy contributions, and as I have not intended them as space wasting filler, it bothers me. But I suppose I'll just hush up now, as it doesn't matter.
Well, simply pick the candidate from the list that is the most suspicious to you.

As far as me suspecting you for style, no. I kinda like you're (what I would call) carefree/relaxed type posting. As far as suspecting you for less analysis in said posts, yes. But I've suspected because of that before.

Certainly if you find someone guilty, we should all vote for that person, but by narrowing things down so greatly, isn't it quite likely that a wolf, or even the EW, could slip past you? As I said, we may find things that you do not.
Not necessarily. It would rid us of a wolf, but it tells us nothing as far as voting is concerned. Although, right now voting doesn't tell us hardly anything anyway. So let's cross that hurdle when we come to it.

Chill out. No one accused you of anything. We don't like your plan, but that doesn't mean we think you're stupid. We just don't like the idea of having you choose who we can and cannot look at. It's not because we doubt you or your abilities, it's because we like to think things out for ourselves. As I said, it becomes more of You vs the baddies, than Us vs. the baddies, and that is something I wish to avoid. So relax. Just because we don't to accept you as our dictator doesn't me we don't like you.
I'll let the phantom answer this one.

Now, that isn't to say everyone can't give their suspicions. Naturally, the GW and Seer will read what everyone has to say and take all opinions into consideration for the nightly scry/dream, but being allowed to state opinions and refusing the leadership of the GW are two completely different things.

The GW and his gifteds are our salvation. Once he is revealed, it will be in our best interest not to argue with him or his lists, because he knows more than a common villager. Should we give our opinions? Certainly! He will use them in helping him decide which individuals to scry and move onto the lynch list, but we shouldn't demand that he change his list or anything. Disobeying him might lead to the accidental discovery of gifteds.

Diamond18

05-18-2006, 08:40 PM

If you choose not to, then you can try to get people to see things from your point of view, and try to explain why it doesn't make you evil!

I'm not getting this impression from our illustrious former Seer. But, we'll see how the rest of the Day goes.

Roa_Aoife

05-18-2006, 08:45 PM

I didn't criticize anyone's playing style, I disagreed with what I think is a bad plan. And if my playing style was criticized, I totally missed it. I just don't like you saying that I should listen to Gurthang with out question- he's foulable too.

I already made that list on my own. The odds of one wolf being in that four are rediculous, and he isn't certain about a single one of them. If he could expand the list, even, it would be for our good. But no, we just have to accept it, with ever questioning, oh my God, the GW might just be wrong about something!

I'm not saying I don't trust Gurthang, nor am I saying I think he's stupid, or incapable, or anything else. I just know better than to put all my eggs in one basket.

But I can see this will fall on deaf ears. So do whatever.

++Valier

Because she's the only one on the list that I find mildly suspicious, and far be it from me to suggest someone else. Obviously Gurthang knows everything that's going on, and certainly isn't as lost as the rest of us.

Kitanna

05-18-2006, 08:49 PM

Gurthang's plan isn't entirely foolproof, we still stand a damn good chance and lynching innocents with it by picking one of the names from his list, but we also have a good chance of getting more wolves (maybe even the EW).
I have doubts of this plan, but I think it is defiantely worth a try and the GW is really the best defense the village has.
So I understand the frustration (anger even) from Roa and Diamond.

That said I looked at the four names that Gurthang gave us and I think I'm the only one who doesn't see anything overly suspicious about Zali or Valier. It's probably because I have been paying more attention to other villagers. As for Eomer I still hold my suspicions from yesterday about him and I view Roa as an in between. So I'll just go over all of their posts and make a decision based on my findings.

Gurthang

05-18-2006, 09:02 PM

I will disagree with whomever I wish. At this present moment, he knows as much as we do except fo rthe identity of one hunter, who is useless if not attacked anyways. It's not about self conservation, it's about me thinking for myself. Your tone is insulting, Nilp. Back off.
As is your's Roa. Is it alright to point out that Nilp and I are proven innocents?* I have finished my rant (I put those rant tags on them to make it appear less serious.) and will do my best to not sound insulting. I hope you'll do the same, too. Would it help if I gave you a big smile? :D (Probably not, but I try.)

This is why I hate being a leader. Roa and Diamond, you two are obviously pretty good leaders. Unfortunately that makes it very difficult for you to force yourself to be a follower. Especially when the leader is not that good of a one. :rolleyes:

Which is why I will never run for President. Or mayor, even. How do you do it, morm?

Diamond, if you feel Kitanna might be a wolf, then analyze her. If enough people suspect her and I do not know if she is innocent or guilty, then I might put her on the list.

That said I looked at the four names that Gurthang gave us and I think I'm the only one who doesn't see anything overly suspicious about Zali or Valier. It's probably because I have been paying more attention to other villagers. As for Eomer I still hold my suspicions from yesterday about him and I view Roa as an in between. So I'll just go over all of their posts and make a decision based on my findings.
Exactly. That's one thing that I think we should all do before we vote.

*If you do not believe that, then you can lynch me. :p

Alcarillo

05-18-2006, 09:09 PM

Well, my wife was killed last night, but I'll just have to hold in my grief lest I be lynched. :p

I'll have to vote now, what with time-zones and whatnot. I like the Good Wizard's list. He knows far more than us common folk, after all. So, I'll vote for

++Roa Aoife

Her rebellious talk is unsettling. I like the GW's plan. It's worth a shot. I'd trust the GW. He's essentially a seer, only un-kill-able by ordinary methods, and with multiple seers (GW and whatever seers he makes), I think we could really narrow down our list of unknown villagers.

Roa_Aoife

05-18-2006, 09:14 PM

I believe you Gurthang- I have no reason not to, and lying would not be wise on this issue. I dislike Nilp's tone because he implies that I have no choice but to follow you. I don't think that it is wise to limit ourselves so, and it seems to me like no one is listening when I say that. They simply assume that you know everything, and so we should just blindly go with the choices you present us. But you must admit, and this rebuffs Caran's argument- you know the same as us, except for the identity of the hunter, and I imagine that you picked a good choice in someone who was unlikely to be lynched, but likely to be killed. So really, your in the same place as us right now. That may change tomorrow, but right now you know no better than we do, and Nilp's suggestion that we must simply agree with you on everything insults my intelligence.

I think you're a good leader, but I am a horrible follower, and I cannot simply accept your commands when I know we're in virtually the same boat. I don't want to be insulting, just realistic.

Gurthang

05-18-2006, 09:16 PM

[All quotes are Roa's]

I didn't criticize anyone's playing style, I disagreed with what I think is a bad plan. And if my playing style was criticized, I totally missed it. I just don't like you saying that I should listen to Gurthang with out question- he's foulable too.
Truer words were never spoken.

I already made that list on my own. The odds of one wolf being in that four are rediculous, and he isn't certain about a single one of them. If he could expand the list, even, it would be for our good. But no, we just have to accept it, with ever questioning, oh my God, the GW might just be wrong about something!
You're right, I'm not certain about any of them. But technically, I didn't pick the list. Everybody did by their voting yesterday. Are you saying the whole village is wrong?

And expanding the list helps the Evil Wizard. It narrows down the choices of who my Hunter is.

I'm not saying I don't trust Gurthang, nor am I saying I think he's stupid, or incapable, or anything else. I just know better than to put all my eggs in one basket.
I did not see you hesitate much before voting for Valier.

But I can see this will fall on deaf ears. So do whatever. Thanks. Thanks a lot. You have no idea how that makes me feel.

Because she's the only one on the list that I find mildly suspicious, and far be it from me to suggest someone else. Obviously Gurthang knows everything that's going on, and certainly isn't as lost as the rest of us.

Please suggest away. I won't guarantee that they will be put on the list, but I do know this: they won't be if nobody says they suspect them. And, as a matter of fact, I am not as lost as the rest of you, for I know who the Hunter is. Not that that's all that significant, but it is a fact.

I think you're a good leader, but I am a horrible follower, and I cannot simply accept your commands when I know we're in virtually the same boat. I don't want to be insulting, just realistic. I still disagree. I do not think I am a good leader.

Voting so far:

Diamond - Azaelia (Azaelia-1)
Jenny - Valier (Azaelia-1, Valier-1)
Roa - Valier (Azaelia-1, Valier-2)
Alcarillo - Roa (Azaelia-1, Valier-2, Roa-1)

Diamond18

05-18-2006, 09:18 PM

I'll have to vote now, what with time-zones and whatnot. I like the Good Wizard's list. He knows far more than us common folk, after all.

The only thing Gurthang knows that we don't know, at this exact point, is the identity of the Hunter. But I'll bet you like the list, since you ain't on it. ;)

Her rebellious talk is unsettling. I like the GW's plan. It's worth a shot. I'd trust the GW. He's essentially a seer, only un-kill-able by ordinary methods, and with multiple seers (GW and whatever seers he makes), I think we could really narrow down our list of unknown villagers.

Geesh, you'd think we wanted to lynch Gurthang or something. I certainly don't.

Gurthang: I might go ahead and do an analysis on Kitanna, but you have to promise to hold off your attack dog (aka Nilp) :p I have already said why I suspect her mainly, but though I remember her Day 1 and Day 3 activity and voting, Day 2 has kind of been lost in a haze.

Feanor of the Peredhil

05-18-2006, 09:26 PM

Gurthang, love, you're a dear. I like your plans and I'd be happy to vote for one of your suspects, since I'm suspicious of them all already.

I don't know for certain if I'll be able to get back on before the end of the Day due to a couple classes, the general amount of other responsibilities, and an unexpected extra work shift, so I'm going to vote now.

Roa, sweetie, though I took your advice (before you even gave it!) to take some Advil and lay down (in as darkened and quiet a room you can get early evening on campus), it doesn't mean I'm any more comfortable with your continued existance. Tradition beckons...

++ROA

Roa_Aoife

05-18-2006, 09:30 PM

You're right, I'm not certain about any of them. But technically, I didn't pick the list. Everybody did by their voting yesterday. Are you saying the whole village is wrong?

And expanding the list helps the Evil Wizard. It narrows down the choices of who my Hunter is.

We've been wrong twice so far. And keeping the list narrow could halp the EW just as much by keeping our attention on innocents instead of the real bad guys.

I did not see you hesitate much before voting for Valier.

I voted in a huff of frustration, because I was really quite upset at Nilp and intended to just sign out for the day. If I didn't know that I'm going to have to be around to defend myself now that I'm on your "List of Death," I would have.

Quote:
But I can see this will fall on deaf ears. So do whatever.

Thanks. Thanks a lot. You have no idea how that makes me feel.

That quote was directed at Nilp, not at you. Honestly, he's the one who has me upset.

Please suggest away. I won't guarantee that they will be put on the list, but I do know this: they won't be if nobody says they suspect them.

The ex-seer seems to be saying that's wrong of us. According to him we have no choice but to accept your plan with out question- not a suggestion I have ever been partial too.

Again, I'm not terribly upset at you- I'm upset at Nilp. I don't agree with your plan, but I'll work with it if it's all I can do.

Roa_Aoife

05-18-2006, 09:32 PM

Tradition beckons...

Okay, third day, and you still haven't answered me on this. Why do you suspect me? Seriously, this isn't even defense anymore, it's just plain curiosity.

mormegil

05-18-2006, 09:33 PM

Ummm would it even matter if they did come out? Because chances are that whoever they dreamt of may now be bad, so I think if they want to they can come out,but not unless most of the people they dreamt of are still alive, they we may have a chance to cross off some Ordo's at least for today

I'm only caught up to this post but this again reinforces my feeling that Valier is guilty. She is extremely careless in her reading, as a wolf would be because they are overly confident and sometimes feel they don't need to read all. It has been given that the seer dreamt of Cailin and Cailin is dead. This coupled with yesterday's attitude convinces me that she is the wolf converted from two nights ago.

Gurthang

05-18-2006, 10:00 PM

Roa, I ask that you not be upset with Nilp either, please. He and I are kind of in the same boat here.

We're both 'proven' innocents. So we proclaim ourselves thinking that the village will be all "Oh, yeah, we know two people who are NOT EVIL" and that you would all rally around us. Yet our proclaimations, well mostly mine, was met with disapproval of the plan I wanted to use to help the village. It's definitely a dream killer, if you will. It's very difficult to know how to respond in that situation.

But, now, I must take my own advice and analyse our four candidates for toDay.

Oh, and Roa, I was serious. The only reason you're on the "List of Death" ( :p ) is because that coin came up heads. (Actually, it bounced under my bed when I flipped it, and it took me about a minute to find it and see how it had landed. :rolleyes: )

mormegil

05-18-2006, 10:10 PM

Okay I'm more or less caught up and commenting on the list and the plan I think it's a good idea if it's modified a bit. I think we should listen to Gurthang because we know that we can trust him and he is a wise and critical thinker. As far as your list goes I agree with Zali and Valier. I would like to add Alcarillo at the expense of removing Eomer or Roa as I currently don't find either horribly suspicious but can you imagine both Diamond and Roa in a debate? I think we would have a virtual fire it would be so hot. I think we need to calm down a bit.

Her rebellious talk is unsettling.

I actually find her 'rebellious' talk a bit reassuring. I've strongly suspected Diamond and still do but their desire to be independent demonstrates to me that they are trying to catch wolves and trust themselves.

I have something to comment on Caran but I won't have time currently but I will do it later.

Valier

05-18-2006, 10:17 PM

Mormegil I still don't understand your reasoning on me being made a wolf two nights ago, why would I then try my hardest to get people to vote for Roa? I believe she is the EW and lynching her will prove my suspisions. I assure you I read everything, but my mind sometimes gets muddled with all the extra stuff going on in this game, but I do not think I'm careless. Even if I was a wolf I would surely read everthing more careful, would I not? because making up lies is far harder than telling the truth or how I feel, which has been what I've been doing. I understand how others think I look suspicious but, like always in the Lore books if you check I am always found innocent when lynched because of my weird outbursts and accusations. I am leaning towards voting for Roa again since I would like her to be exposed for the EW I think she is, but I will wait until tomorrow (my time) to read through more and vote.

Gurthang

05-18-2006, 10:23 PM

Just thought I'd update this, if anyone still wants to try this method of reasoning:

The Evil Wizard did pick:

Loki
Naria
Nogrod
Nilp
(hmm... maybe s/he does have a fascination with allteration *coughFeacough* ;) )

The Evil Wizard did not pick:

The Saucepan Man
the phantom
Celuien
Lhunardawen
Cailín
Firefoot

morm, the list is final for toDay. Tomorrow, it may change quite a bit. Then again it may not change but for one. I won't say for sure until then.

Caranlondien

05-18-2006, 10:32 PM

Well, after some time away clearing my mind, then re-reading a bit and trying to collect my wits, I've come to the conclusion that I desperately need some sleep. :rolleyes: I'll be back sometime around 3pm GMT.

Diamond18

05-18-2006, 10:34 PM

My Post On All Things Kitanna

I’m not going to recap her posts: you wanna read ’em, click on the link.

#90 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=467447&postcount=90)

Nothing particularly suspicious, as such, but as a wolf she could easily be picking up on the criticism of Loki and zeroing in on a weak member of the village. She expresses agreement with both tp and Gurthang on a plan, which could be honest agreement or just wanting to appear positive.

#195 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=467614&postcount=195)

In voting for Loki she is remaining consistent with her one other post, which is not wolfish per se but can be considered cautious. I find it interesting that she never really seems to consider that he could be telling the truth.

#303 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=467946&postcount=303)

I don’t find anything suspicious in this post.

#315 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=467965&postcount=315)

Interestingly, when Roa questions her vote and reasons for voting Loki, she really doesn’t say anything about beyond commenting about Nogrod and Loki... doesn’t really stand up for her own reasons, beyond saying it was a blanket statement by Loki that made her suspect him. But, the rest of the post seems reasonable. Yet... I’m wary of cautiousness and her posting feels quite cautious.

#329 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=467985&postcount=329)

Well, all her points about Nogrod are quite “on” as he did in fact turn out to be a wolf. One reason why I didn’t remember her Day 2 posting very clearly is because her posts weren’t very suspicious in and of themselves -- but consider that going along with what a lot of people were saying about Nogrod is quite a canny way of making up for contributing to Loki’s death.

I, by the way, did the same thing as Kitanna voting-wise -- first Loki, than Nogrod. But I made my case and my vote for Nogrod before Roa really went after him, whereas Kitanna did it after. So, make of that whatever you will.

#444 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=468369&postcount=444)

Now comes Day 3, when started getting bad feelings about her. She starts out defending Celuien here, but will end up voting for her eventually. She also seems to lean towards agreeing about Eomer being the evil wizard, which could be cautiously testing the bandwaggoning waters.

#448 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=468378&postcount=448)

Here she starts turning away from her defense of Celuien (and me) -- in the first half of the post she seems to be on Celuien’s side (cautiously) but at the end makes what I still feel is a very odd comment in response to me. As I’ve said, why should that comment I made make her regret defending Celuien?

#513 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=468478&postcount=513)

Here is where her reasoning continues to puzzle me. She initially defended Celuien’s pre-defense of her actions, but now she finds it condemning enough to vote for her. Like I said, I didn’t find Celuien’s posting that day to worsen my perception of her, yet as she came under more suspicion Kitanna found her defense of herself to be less warranted. Interesting.

#592 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=468719&postcount=592)

I felt like she was sidestepping my question here, making a rather unnecessary clarification. I don’t know, did anyone else think I was talking about THE phantom?

#598 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=468726&postcount=598)

Here’s an answer, but not one I’m totally comfortable with. She says that she was referring all the way back to Celuien’s first post of the game -- but this is the same post she defended, and when she actually did vote, she said it was because of:

Celuien's continued defense of phantom accusations of herself.

and

when Celuien continued it and regarded anyone looking at her as a "pointless arguement" I began to suspect her even more.

So her vote was not, in fact, about the earliest posting, it was about the later posting, which I found less suspicious, not more.

#620 ( http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=468751&postcount=620)

Now, this interests me, because it’s very safe. She’s not taking sides with anyone in particular... which isn’t totally wolfish, but it continues her mostly safe way of doing things. I do not expect the Evil Wizard or one of his wolves to have the temerity to butt heads with him on thread, here, so this fits with my expectation of how a cautious baddy would react to the news of the Good Wizard’s coming out party.

In Summary:

I wouldn’t be surprised if Kitanna is innocent and all this has a reasonable explanation. But that, in itself, worries me -- Kitanna is exactly the sort of middle-ground, slightly-under-the-radar, comes-across-as mostly-reasonable-because-of-her-cool-tone sort of Wolf I’d want if I were the EW. So the fact that I can pick up on niggling things in her posts makes me fear having her around, quietly being evil. She’s like a spider, I’m afraid when I can’t get a clear view of her. (Um, I don’t mean that to be insulting, Kit, I’m just highly arachnophobic, so that seemed like an apt analogy.)

Plus, we’ve already seen the EW choose the Loud Wolf (Nogrod) the Unknown Element Wolf (Loki) and the Super Uber Quiet Wolf (Naria). Kitanna is the fourth type of poster and since the EW has selected one from each of the other demographics, I’m feeling that someone like Kitanna and Azaelia may have rounded out the pack.

This all said, I’m not as upset about voting Azaelia as I may have sounded -- yeah, like Roa, I pretty much voted early in a state of pique with Nilpaurion Knowitall :p but like I said, Zali was my pick yesterDay and I haven’t seen anything from her that changes my previous view.

Roa_Aoife

05-18-2006, 10:35 PM

Well, I'd love to debate you a bit more, Gurthang, but it's near 1:00 am where I am, and I have an early day tomorrow. I hope to be back on several hours before voting closes.

Diamond18

05-18-2006, 11:21 PM

My Post On All Things Azaelia

Might as well, since I voted for her, and she’s my second suspect behind Kit.

#104 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=467485&postcount=104)

Nothing much to comment on -- besides that she agrees with me about Loki’s ’tude and that she’s against focusing on the middle-ground people such as herself. Though she words it in a rather humble matter, she is basically saying, “Oh, the wizard wouldn’t pick little ol’ meeee.” I do, however, agree that it wasn’t a good idea to make a list of people you consider middle ground and ignore the rest, so she’s not saying anything strictly controversial.

But see my above comments on non-controversial posting. ;)

#113 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=467498&postcount=113)

A time zone clarification... really, you’d think from looking at the whole time zone discussion that no one remembered to look at this site. (http://www.timeanddate.com/worldclock/) :rolleyes: Okay, that didn’t really have anything to do with Zali, but I thought I’d comment. :p Anyway, this is Zali’s second post of the entire game.... Now that’s a low profile.

#196 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=467615&postcount=196)

Votes for Loki for basically, it would seem, the same reasons that I did -- but she’s careful to point out that she is not bandwaggoning, despite how it looks, and even says she doesn’t like bandwaggoning. And then apologizes if it “looks” rushed... she seems very concerned with how she is perceived.

#227 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=467791&postcount=227)

Starts right off with yet another agreement, this time with Caran, and then speculates on why Sauce was killed. This isn’t particularly noteworthy except that it is yet another safe post, as it was fairly obvious to most people that Sauce was killed for his staggering intellect. (And I’m only being half facetious ’bout that, Sauce. ;;-)

#349 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=468009&postcount=349)

A vote for Nogrod late in the day -- easy to do, since he was looking mighty suspicious. So, more bandwaggoning, but she yet again makes a point of saying that she is not bandwaggoning, it just looks that way.

#382 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=468240&postcount=382)

Interesting that she had defended Alcarillo the previous say but now says he’s looking mighty suspicious. She compares his in character stuff to my in character stuff, using mine as a positive example -- and as counterintuitive as it may sound, this worried me, because no one usually says good things about my in character posting. *_* Maybe I’m just being ungrateful. But, it still worries me that she turned on Alcarillo based on, it seems, Morm’s continued suspicion of him. Then, she edits to agree some more with Morm that Eomer is now highly suspicious.

#387 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=468247&postcount=387)

More of the preoccupation with how her actions appear, and apologizing for them. Continuing to suspect Alcarillo and Eomer, and votes for Eomer in what seems to be a parroting of Morm’s whole case against him. As this preceded the announcement of RL issues that would keep her away for a long time, I can see how as an innocent she would go for the most persuasive argument around -- but since this was her apparent modus operandi all game, it unsettles me all the more.

In Summary:

All my points about safe posting in Kit’s analysis go for Azaelia but on a higher level. All her posts contained agreeable comments with other people’s theories, except when it came to focusing on quiet people like herself as wolves. I won’t say that her behavior cannot be justified as an innocent, but in my view that makes it all the more dangerous if she is, indeed, a wolf.

Diamond18

05-18-2006, 11:36 PM

For my own curiosity I'd like to do a post on all things Fea -- but I fear I won't be doing it anytime soon, as she has 23 posts in Days 1-3 (and a couple more toDay) and such a task tonight would surely be the end of my sanity. What little a week of Werewolf has left me. Perhaps I will wait till she is actually a sanctioned lynch candidate. :p

I see that Valier is the favorite to die so far, and I don't really agree with that. Val strikes me as an innocent who got a bit sloppy because as an Ordo she has nothing much to lose and wasn't thinking things through enough. My lorebooks don't tell me anything about evil ancestors of hers and how they might have behaved, so I'm a little lost on that score. I could do a post by post analysis but that would more than unhinge me, it would leave me gasping for breath on the floor. Sorry Val. :D But I count 37 posts Day 1-3 and a few more for toDay so far.

mormegil

05-18-2006, 11:54 PM

All right, this looks like I'm jumping on a bandwagon, but my internet connection was down and I haven't really had time to explain my thinking...

++Celuien

I don't really feel good about voting for any of the choices. I was leaning towards Zali, but I just don't want to vote for her when she's not here, for obvious reasons. And I had missed the points on Celuien, too. Sorry if you're innocent, Celuien!

Okay in post 593 Caran brought this back up and it alarmed me. It always alarms me when people decide them must vote for one of the top candidates. It screams that they don't want to stand out. If you really don't think Celuien guilty then don't vote for her. Does this make sense? It appears that she's so concerned with making herself stand out that she makes it a point to fit it with the main stream.

Unfortunately the village is still so large that it makes it difficult to think about everybody. I sense that most of us are focusing one 2 to 3 people each. But to reread this entire thread would be crazy. This is so frustrating because of the aspect of people potentially changing from one day to the next.

Diamond you've left yourself unanalyzeable due to your size and frequency of posts :p . I think you have some valid points about Kitanna and I'm glad you are looking at her because I know that I have not been able to. Regarding Zali you are bringing up points that I have felt for a while. I'm not sure how I feel about Kitanna being guilty but it could be a potential.

Valier everything fits so well that you would have been converted two nights ago. Your drastic behavior shift and your posts that where you kept persiting the points about the phantom and your post today.

Gurthang

05-18-2006, 11:55 PM

I just had a good sized post destroyed; about 10 quotes or so from our four. :(

I'll look about getting those quotes tomorrow, but basically here's what I found:

Eomer - Could be evil, but he seems sincere to me. If he is bad, he's pulling a great bluff.

Valier - Her sudden switch after Night 3 is what really troubles me. She jumped to four new suspects, none of whom she had been suspicious of before, and then went all out for one of them. I believe her about her insticts being good, but I wouldn't put that much trust in them. And then there was this weird confession post...

Azaelia - mostly what I see as suspicious is her vote for Eomer yesterday. Yet that's about the only thing.

Roa - I found her pretty consistant the first few days. Between yesterday and toDay, though, she did change. She said before last Night that Valier was a misguided innocent. ToDay she said she'd be looking at her and then voted for her.

So for me it's between Valier and Roa. I'm leaning towards Valier, but I'll see what developes. I'm going to bed, I'll be back in the morning to vote.

Nilpaurion Felagund

05-19-2006, 02:17 AM

I'm not getting this impression from our illustrious former Seer. (Diamond)Ugh, I feel so light-headed.

Sorry if I misunderstood y'all. The impression I had is, you'd still vote for whomever you suspect, even ignoring the plan. From your posts I thought I saw a willingness to go over the Good Wizard's head.

If I was wrong, well . . . I'm really sorry for that. Well, I'll be dead enedwaith. So at least Gurthang's attack dog ( :p ) will be gone the next DAY.

So, depending on whether Gurthang's timezone situation can allow it, tomorrow we (or rather you):

a) Form a case against someone you suspect (well, for just one or for as many as you can? I'll let my scion/superior decide);
b) Decide which case can hold the most water;
c) Let Gurthang see your case (and subsequent discussion) and decide from that the list of death.

Plan okay with everyone?

Lalaith

05-19-2006, 02:56 AM

I said I would apologise if I was wrong about Loki and I was - so I do.
Sorry, Lynched Loki.
Now for some closer reading....

Lalaith

05-19-2006, 03:42 AM

First off, I'll state the fairly obvious and say the Hunter should stay well hidden for now.
Secondly, I had formulated a plan myself that was more or less like the one Nilp just sketched out up there *points.* So I obviously agree with you, Nilp. This plan should also make our individualists happy, as well, we all a chance get to shape the village's destiny. I hope there'll be time for Gurth to draw up tomorrow's shortlist. If not, then maybe you could do it, Nilp, before nightfall.

Gurth, I *knew* there was something different about you. I thought it was something bad different. I thoroughly approve of your suggestion of looking at the list of who the EW picked to do what. It might tell us something. We should also bear in mind that the wolves - and presumably the EW as he would have approved the kills - wanted you dead last night. Why?
Did you say something, or was it a similar case to what I believe led to Cailin's death - that most thought her innocent? On the other hand, given the fact that most people trusted Cailin, why didn't the EW make her a wolf? So did Cailin say something, too? What players might the EW have made into wolves last night?

As for the lynch-list, I'm currently inclined to vote Valier. No offence, Valier, in fact quite the contrary. So much has been said about your wolf-spotting instincts, I suspect that the EW would rather have you inside the tent than out.

Nilpaurion Felagund

05-19-2006, 03:58 AM

I hope there'll be time for Gurth to draw up tomorrow's shortlist. If not, then maybe you could do it, Nilp, before nightfall. (Lalaith)Um, not me! Why, I've timezones so horrible I could be awake for three-fourths of the day and still miss the action!

Maybe Firefoot, another proven innocent, could help. Yes, she definitely should, at least for toDAY, while we're sure she's innocent.

Vzv, where's Zali?

Lalaith

05-19-2006, 04:03 AM

Yes, timezones, of course. Ok, Firefoot it is then (if Gurthang can't do it for whatever reason.) No-one else can be trusted.

Nilpaurion Felagund

05-19-2006, 04:10 AM

Argh, should have remembered this sooner.

Only Gurthang can do it. He has the name of the Hunter. What if the Hunter is under suspicion, and we include him in the list, and then we lynch him? BIG trouble.

Lalaith

05-19-2006, 04:14 AM

Ah yes, of course. And Gurth can't even PM Firefoot the name because he's only allowed to PM with gifteds.
Well, it's lucky the poor man never sleeps, isn't it?

Nilpaurion Felagund

05-19-2006, 04:37 AM

I remain highly suspicious of her.

++Azaelia of Willowbottom

Lalaith

05-19-2006, 04:42 AM

I've just had another thought. (Damn it, where are my fellow Europeans, I'm feeling weird talking to myself here, and I expect Nilp's gone to bed)
By going on the list of yesterday's most suspected, aren't we then making it very unlikely that we'll find either of the wolves cursed last night?
They would probably be people who weren't under suspicion yesterDay, after all...
I'm not saying undo the list, but perhaps tomorrow's list should feature a lot of fresh faces, that's all.
Oh, and yet another thought, drawing up a list toDay for the next Day's lynching will mean that whoever gets wolfed that following Night will not be one of those on that list. Something to bear in mind.

Nilpaurion Felagund

05-19-2006, 04:43 AM

We should give thought to the silent players. What do we do about them?

Nilpaurion Felagund

05-19-2006, 04:51 AM

'tis but 7 in the evening here. ;)

You make some good points, which reinforce my feeling that you're innocent.

I've just had another thought. (Damn it, where are my fellow Europeans, I'm feeling weird talking to myself here, and I expect Nilp's gone to bed)
By going on the list of yesterday's most suspected, aren't we then making it very unlikely that we'll find either of the wolves cursed last night?
They would probably be people who weren't under suspicion yesterDay, after all...
I'm not saying undo the list, but perhaps tomorrow's list should feature a lot of fresh faces, that's all.
Oh, and yet another thought, drawing up a list toDay for the next Day's lynching will mean that whoever gets wolfed that following Night will not be one of those on that list. Something to bear in mind. (Lalaith)The solution to this would be to let the suspicion list be drawn up tomorrow, but unless we plan to do it when everybody has posted--which means some will already have voted and gone--we will be doing the list based on yesterDAY's posting enedwaith.

Doing it toDAY would give us time to deliberate more tomorrow (and allow the early voters to give a proper vote). At least we'll have a chance to catch the older Werewolves.

Firefoot

05-19-2006, 05:42 AM

I see I've been drafted to write some kind of short list for you all. I can't promise anything; this may be the last time I'm on toDay, which is why I'm going to vote. If I'm around I'll try to put something together.

Dang it, none of these people look very suspicious to me.

++Azaelia

Diamond's analysis was interesting; I wish I had time to go check up on it myself, but I've already strayed way over time here.

Diamond, what's happening to our family? LMP, Nogrod, Lhuna, now Zali's on the lynch list...

Lalaith

05-19-2006, 06:11 AM

It’s quiet both on here, and in my RL working life, so I’ve been passing the time collating info that might be of use.
My little project is called Voting Patterns and Wolf Creation.
We know that the EW tried to turn Nilp, who has been getting one vote on each day. The question is, at what level of suspicion does a player become too likely a lynch candidate to be a useful wolf? I suppose it depends not just on the number of votes but also on the number of other players saying they suspect the person. Anyway, here are the numbers:

Day One:
Nogrod 6,
Eomer 1,
Lommy 4,
Loki 8,
Nilp 1,
Oddwen 2,
SPM 2,
Kath 1,
Alcarillo 1,
Lhuna 1

Would Noggie have been made a wolf by the EW after this? Very unlikely. So he must surely have been a Day One wolf. Naria posted a lot (for her) on Day One. She also voted for Nogrod. What does that mean? Was she an original, or a Night Two/Three wolf? I’m now turning to the idea of the latter, which means a Day One wolf still walks among us….I would guess the EW would not have turned Lommy on Night Two, either.

Day Two:
Valier – 1 Lalaith – 2, Nogrod – 11, Roa – 2, Fea – 1, Oddwen – 6, Nilp – 1

Incidently, two wolves (if Naria was not the wolf created on Night Three) voted for Oddwen. Probably a coincidence, of course. But nonetheless, with so much suspicion on her, Oddwen would be an unlikely choice for wolfing on Night Three. And probably Roa and I fall in that category too.

Day Three:
Eomer-3, Azaelia-4, Alcarillo-2, Fea-1, Roa-2, Valier-3, Celuien-5

Now this makes Zali, Eomer and Valier (and possibly also Alc and Roa) unlikely Night Four wolves.

Of course, the person in question might already have been a wolf when they started garnering suspicion. (vis a vis Nogrod)

mormegil

05-19-2006, 06:53 AM

Diamond - Azaelia (Azaelia-1)
Jenny - Valier (Azaelia-1, Valier-1)
Roa - Valier (Azaelia-1, Valier-2)
Alcarillo - Roa (Azaelia-1, Valier-2, Roa-1)
Fea - Roa (Azaelia-1, Valier-2, Roa-2)
Nilp - Zali (Azaelia-2, Valier-2, Roa-2)
Firefoot - Zali (Azaelia-3, Valier-2, Roa-2)

Lalaith I think you have some interesting ideas on the suspicion list vs the new cursings. It actually fits rather well with my theory that Valier would have been the converted wolf on night 3 as she only received one vote on day 2.

From whom haven't we heard today? Eonwe, Glirdan, Kath and Sleepy. Out of this group Kath worries me the least as she has been sufficiently vocal up to this point. The others have me worried due to our natural desire to avoid killing somebody simply because they are quiet but I'd rather hear from them soon.

dancing spawn of ungoliant

05-19-2006, 06:58 AM

Oh... I was already wondering what all the black cloaks were doing in my laundry basket. Wise decision, Gurthang and Nilp, to step forward.

a) Form a case against someone you suspect (well, for just one or for as many as you can? I'll let my scion/superior decide);
b) Decide which case can hold the most water;
c) Let Gurthang see your case (and subsequent discussion) and decide from that the list of death.
This is very much how I'd like to see things to be done because even though it were Gurthang who had the last word in nominating the lynching candidates, we are all still able to see who chose to make a case against whom, how they reacted etc. The Days will pass in usual Wizard/Wolf catching style, but the voting just will be a bit different.

Right now I'm baffled by this issue between Valier and Roa. It's clear that Valier wasn't the Seer, so I wonder what has made her so unusually confident about Roa. I know Valier has excellent instincts, but the way she's been campaigning against Roa seems odd. I must admit that I've had some suspicions of Roa, too, but they seem to be based more on a gut feeling than anything concrete.

My first thought when Gurthang revealed himsef was that the EW won't probably argue against the plan (if the EW has already spoken). They will accept it trying to appear helpful, and if none of their minions is on the list, why shouldn't they? If the EW has Wolves on the list, s/he will sacrifice them because it's safer than to start arguing against a clear plan. If that theory is right, it would indicate that Roa isn't the EW. However, the EW's picks (Loki, Nogrod, Naria, Nilp) look like something that Roa could choose, and Roa did vote according to the plan although it was spiced up with some sarcasm.

Anyway, if we assume that the EW has posted toDay (which isn't certain), the person that looks the most EWish to me would be Fea. It could possibly be due to her "mind-numbing headache", but I found her early posts odd. Besides, I think Fea would have been a good match for Gurthang as the other Wizard.

We should give thought to the silent players. What do we do about them?
True. It's just so hard to anylyse people who don't talk. Sleepy has made 3 posts and so has Eonwe. Oddwen has spoken 5 times, Zali seven...

Lalaith

05-19-2006, 07:17 AM

Here's a village overview, it's not as detailed as some, more general impression.
The known innocents are bolded, the silents are in italics, as I agree we need to focus on them.

Diamond of the Battledore ~ Has, (as I think Morm said) a post-count beyond the reach of analysis. The refusal to fall in line with GW plan makes her seem innocent, but she’s clever enough to double-bluff.

Caranlondien the Sled-Team Driver ~ has escaped much suspicion, has a quietly good reputation, and thus a good Night Four wolf choice.

Roa Aoife the weaver ~ another rebel. I only have one lore-book on the subject of Roa, and what we’ve seen so far is pretty much what I’d expect from her, but others may have a more extensive library.

Dancing Spawn of Ungoliant the Baker ~ could Spawn still be a lowly ord all this time? She could be a wolf…or the EW herself, although I’m not sure she’d make the wolf choices the EW has made. (Well, except for Nilp… ;) )
One thing I’ve noticed - she’s been making cases against innocents and then doesn’t vote for them. On Day Two it was me, on Day Three it was Celuien. That could of course be mischance, it’s easy to be wrong in a game like this.

Kath the minstrel ~ a strong player who hasn’t garnered suspicion. Again, good Night Four choice.

Lommy the little girl who steals other children's candy ~ I don’t know about Lommy. She’s been getting a medium amount of suspicion but has been quiet since yesterDay. Not sure about her either way.

Glirdan with the giant crush on Kath ~ Gone. Could he be made a wolf in his absence?

Valier the gardener ~ under lots of suspicion right now. Thus not a Night Four wolf but quite possibly an earlier one, particularly as I think the EW would want her on his side.

Sleepy Ranger the former wanderer ~ much the same feelings as I have about Glirdan.
Kitanna the beloved of Eomer ~ she has been posting most sensibly as far as I can make out - but she could be a night Four wolf.

Firefoot the artist ~ innocent. She was one of the ones I felt trusting towards yesterday anyway.

Alcarillo the old retired sea captain ~ too suspicious for a Night Four wolf. Could have been an original, though.

Oddwen the filthy, insane street urchin who steals chickens ~ dear wayward ward of mine, could you participate a little more? Unlike the other silentish ones, she’s been under a lot of suspicion, so if she’s a wolf she’ll be the surviving original.

mormegil the retired mariner and current mayor ~ I feel like trusting him because he’s making sense. But he would be a formidable EW.

Feanor the shepherdess with a love of alliteration ~ I’m scared she might be the EW.

Zali the seamstress and beloved of the phantom ~ suspected so not Night Four wolf. I’m not actually feeling as worried by her as some of you are.

Jenny Hallu the unmarried maiden & aunt ~ another good Night Four wolf choice.

Eonwe the freeloading husband of Lhunardawen ~ like Sleepy and Glirdan. Very quiet, where is he?

Eomer the adventurer & lover of Kitanna ~ unlikely Night Four wolf. And I don’t think he was guilty before last night so I’ll continue to trust him for now.

Nilpaurion the ne'er do well hubby of Dancing Spawn ~ innocent, ex-Seer, wanted last night as wolf by EW.

Gurthang the stable-hand ~ GW, innocent, wanted dead by wolves.

Some questions:
1. What did Gurth and Cailin, last night’s wolf-prey, say yesterDay?
Gurthang is uneasy about Eomer, Alcarillo, Lhuna and Zali. Then thinks spawn is innocent, and also morm because of his Eomer ploy. Then says he won’t vote for Fea, morm, spawn or Eomer, but will probably vote for Celuien, Azaelia, and Diamond. Next post, wants to vote for Diamond because he can’t find anything on Cel or Zali. Can’t find anything on Alc. Ends up voting for Zali.
Cailin, in post 403, sums up everyone – she finds Firefoot innocent (which we know now was correct) Did she get anything else right? She voted for Celuien, an innocent….
2. Like you spawn, I'm rather interested in the Valier and Roa squabble – and the implications of both being still alive this morning. The death of one might of course frame the other. Valier seemed to think this Morning that she would die last night. Why?

Thinlómien

05-19-2006, 07:29 AM

Never again accuse me for being too vocal! :eek: Today was quite a read through. Seriously, we have had meaningful discussion so I don't complain.

About Gurthang's plan and "death list". First I was against it. I heartily agreed with Roa that it is no use since the only gifted we have is useful only when she dies.

So, depending on whether Gurthang's timezone situation can allow it, tomorrow we (or rather you):

a) Form a case against someone you suspect (well, for just one or for as many as you can? I'll let my scion/superior decide);
b) Decide which case can hold the most water;
c) Let Gurthang see your case (and subsequent discussion) and decide from that the list of death.

Plan okay with everyone?I, as well, see this plan as a good one. Thanks, petty wizard. :)

As for my suspects... I'm totally confused! Eomer doesn't strike me as evil as he did yesterday, since he has done a reasonable defense of himself.

I would probably vote for Alc, if he was on the list. He keeps worrying me. Anyway, I want to show some support to our GW and pick from his list.

Of the other candidates my thoughts are:

Valier - That's her normal playing style! Stop suspecting her for that! I have fallen to suspect her only because of that enough times to be quite sure she's innocent. Wolfvalier is - according to the sole chapter in my lorebook on the topic - more careful than ordovalier. And we can't accuse our Valier here for overcaredulness.

Zali - I've thought her a pretty intelligent lass, so I can't believe her to be as careless as she now is if she were a wolf.

Roa - For a few days I believed her be the GW, the seer or the EW, and concluded it was of those most unprobable that she'd be the EW. Now, however, the thought is back, as I know who the GW is and who the seer was. I could very easily imagine Roa picking Noggie as her wolf. For a long time they've joked that they're always against each other, but if they one day were on the same side, they'd be invincible. Something in her posting strikes me as very innocent though.

I have no idea who I will vote! I don't really suspect anyone of them. Argh. Maybe I'll go through all their posts if I have time.

I have to vote early today since I'm going to spend the night with my friends and they'd kill me if I werewolfed... *sigh*

edit: cross-posted with Laughter

Thinlómien

05-19-2006, 07:39 AM

I see my post above is quite vague. I think I have a problem with thinking people know what I think so I don't have to write logically. :rolleyes:

Anyway, I meant that I first disagreed with the plan and then, when Nilp suggested his altered plan I thought it a good one and changed my mind. I hope that is a bit clearer than the post above.

Lommy the little girl who steals other children's candy ~ ... but has been quiet since yesterDay. Not sure about her either way. It's called timezone-illness, dear lady... :) The day begins 1am for me so I'm sleeping and then I have my schoolday and then, when I finally have time, I must read through the thread...

Feanor of the Peredhil

05-19-2006, 07:54 AM

It could possibly be due to her "mind-numbing headache", but I found her early posts odd. Besides, I think Fea would have been a good match for Gurthang as the other Wizard.
It was and I'm pretty sure that they were just as odd as you say, but I'm running late *glares at alarm clock that didn't go off* and haven't time to reread. And we all know perfectly well I'd have made a good wizard in a land where pigs fly and eternally tortured souls are cold. I've already explained why I didn't volunteer for the position. I'd die too fast.

Here are my thoughts on Eomer and morm from the other Day: for a while I was flirting with the idea that they were GW and Seer. I was concerned with voting for either (I mentioned them and Cailin in the same breath), but not for the same reason as Cailin. Cai' I thought was innocent. 'Mer and morm... well... I was tossing up that they were either our good guys that knew more than the rest of us or that they were purely evil. Now I know that they were neither of them the good roles and I'm wondering more about them, but I can't stay to chat. I have classes until 4 (starting in 7 minutes) and then I'm working a 5-6 shift that will be highly inconvenient for ww work. I wish I hadn't voted last night but I wasn't much seeing straight, much less thinking it, and I definately don't have more time today.

The posts I most questioned were the ones previous to post 435 excluding 432, 433, & 434 because I cross-posted and didn't take those into account when stating that we ought not kill the folks. Think about it. I'm not asking you to do anything, just think about it since I can't?

Thinlómien

05-19-2006, 08:32 AM

++Eomer

My choice was between two people I'm very unsure of, Eomer and Roa, today and of them Roa seemed more innocent judging by her posts and reactions.

I'm going now...

Gurthang

05-19-2006, 08:39 AM

Well, not a lot has happened while I slept.

"Nilp's" plan is basically what I had in mind. So if you disagree with my plan and agree with his, well... they're pretty much the same thing.

I'm not saying undo the list, but perhaps tomorrow's list should feature a lot of fresh faces, that's all.
Maybe it will and maybe it won't.

I have to keep the EW on his toes; I need to keep him unsure and guessing. Part of that is not letting him know what I plan to do.

Let's say I did give my list for tomorrow. He'd probably pick new wolves that aren't on the list and then kill people not on the list so that there's no chance that any more of his wolves would be moved onto it. So, knowing he'll do that, maybe I'll make an entirely new list for tomorrow. If he suspects that that's my plan, then he'll actually pick wolves from the list. But, then I might throw him a curve and pick the exact same list as toDay.

So basically, I just act totally randomly, and he has the (very hard) job of guessing what my randomness will be. :p

Roa_Aoife

05-19-2006, 08:48 AM

Well, I'm back.

So, depending on whether Gurthang's timezone situation can allow it, tomorrow we (or rather you):

a) Form a case against someone you suspect (well, for just one or for as many as you can? I'll let my scion/superior decide);
b) Decide which case can hold the most water;
c) Let Gurthang see your case (and subsequent discussion) and decide from that the list of death.

Plan okay with everyone?

This I find much easier to accept. I will happily go about building cases for presentation, but as I'm on the LIST OF DOOOOOOOOOOM (things always sound cooler with "doom" after them), I don't know how many will listen. Just one flaw I see- people will be coming up with cases about the people on the list, and very little time may be given to those who aren't already on the list. Also, and I think this was mentioned already, we're giving the EW a heads up on who is suspected by us, and who will be in danger of lynching tomorrow, making it easier on him to pick a wolf that won't get killed.

Also, for those who have brought up my behavior change, it's not really a change so much as it is me having more time now.

And about who I would have picked were I the EW- Loki, phantom, and Saucie for night one, then probably Valier, Alcarillo, and Kath, but not necessarily in that order. I wouldn't have picked Nogrod until much later in the game, after everyone was thoroughly convinced of his trustworthiness, if he lasted that long. Nogrod tends to draw suspicion early.

And since everyone seems to think Diamond's count is too high for them to do, I'll do it, since I have the time now.

Edit: Cross posted- but I didn't think they were different. I misunderstood, so now I get it.

Gurthang

05-19-2006, 08:56 AM

I will happily go about building cases for presentation, but as I'm on the LIST OF DOOOOOOOOOOM (things always sound cooler with "doom" after them)
Yes, yes they do. In fact, it was the DAY OF DOOOOOOOOOM* that would have kept me from playing if LMP hadn't pushed back the deadline.

Also, and I think this was mentioned already, we're giving the EW a heads up on who is suspected by us, and who will be in danger of lynching tomorrow, making it easier on him to pick a wolf that won't get killed.

See my above post. :cool:

*ask later. :D

Kitanna

05-19-2006, 08:58 AM

Ok, I've gone through the four Gurthang picked out for us and will comment on anything odd or suspicious about them.

DAY 1
Eomer=
I think we should lynch.....Caranlondien? She'd make a fine wolf and the EW knows it. She's sensible, adds to the discussion, and I don't think she'd get lynched had I not put her name on the shortlist.

If I were the EW, I'd create a monster from her.
One of Eomer's "if I were the EW remarks" that Morm used against him yesterday. I think this was the first time he brought it up, so I didn't look too deeply into it.

Eomer=
I think Loki is almost certainly not worth voting for today and I recommend that people stop voting for him/her. Even before we had the trouble with wolves in this village, we could easily see that Loki is an argumentative sort. The EW would not curse Loki.
If Eomer were the EW (or even an informed wolf) he would have known one of his was gone. If he was the EW he would know it was Loki, if he was an informed wolf he would know it was Loki, even if he was an uninformed wolf he might take Loki at his word of being the redeemed wolf. So, he knew Loki's innocence and defended him to make himself look good if Loki got the ax that day.
Eomer=
Celuien, Caranlondien, Roa, Nogrod, Alcarillo, Cailín, Oddwen, Jenny, Lalaith or Gurthang.
Another "If I were evil I would curse" post.
Eomer=
++NOGROD

Take it as a compliment: I'd curse you if I was evil.
And perhaps you did, seeing as Nogrod turned out to be cursed. Given Eomer's history I wouldn't put it past him to be so bold.
Eomer=
Nogrod, like I said: To my mind, you would be a good pick for the EW. I voted for you out of everyone on my list because you had a vote already
Continued "if I were evil" statements, directed at a proven wolf.
Valier=
but today I will go with my sister Fea on this one and vote for the newbie..sorry, but overly abrasive people are no fun to play with!

++Loki
Valier's vote for the day. She put in the vote when Loki was two votes ahead of Nogrod, so if she was a wolf at this time then she wasn't trying to save Nogrod (provided the wolves knew about each others' identities).
Zali=
That said, I am going to vote

++Loki

because his behavior is, perhaps intentionally, confusing. His state of being as a newbie has no relation to this vote. His irritibility and aggression, and sudden shift of mood is worrisome. If this is an act, to what purpose does it serve? My instincts say he's not the evil wizard, but he's gathered the most suspicion of anyone from me today. I don't like that he and a few other people have turned into bandwaggons, since if they turn out innocent, the first people to fall under suspicion are those who hopped on board. However, I have genuine suspicion and worry about him, and I'm not making this vote just as an act of, "oh, hey. Everyone else is voting, so he must be bad".
Zali, Valier, and I all cross-posted when it came to voting for Loki. So according to Zali she was putting Loki ahead by three votes, like Valier.
Roa=
So, assuming Loki's innocense, I look to those most eager to lynch him. Nogrod has been questioning Loki's claim from the start, never even asking the "true" convert to come forward. Certainly this person has nothing to fear, as the wizards already know who he/she is. I find it odd that Nogrod over looked this. Also, he held off his vote to point when it was clear the mob was set upon Loki- behavior I find far too careful for Nogrod's usual style. That's why I'm going to vote

++Nogrod
Roa's vote for day one.

DAY TWO
Eomer=
The vote for Lommy, somewhat, because I think she's always prime lynching material and wouldn't be picked to be a wolf.
He's pretty confident Lommy would not be a pick of the EW. Nogrod is/was prime lynching material (always) and he was picked, so what makes Eomer so sure Lommy would not be?
Valier=
My biggest suspects for toDay would be....Celuien, Caran, Kitanna, Naria, Alcarillo .Not that I have any concrete evidence yet, but I go with what I feel and toDay I thought of these....I will be around for the rest of the day, so I will have more time to read through and post some more.
Ok in this post Valier gives a list of who she thinks is good and who she thinks may be evil. On the bad list Naria appears, on the good list Nogrod appears. I don't have a whole lot to go on from that, but I did find that interesting.
Roa=
++Nogrod

And I'd just like to say that if he is a wolf, then I'm going to throw my head back and laugh, because for once he's on the evil side and I'm not!
Roa's vote for this day. Not much of a surprise given her early attacks on Nogrod.
Valier=
I do however hate it when people only come on once during the Day and post and vote and that is it...coughcoughNilpcoughcough This is unhelpful, but posting three posts daily is not necissarily odd for some players...
A defense against phantom's idea to lynch those who post little and say little. Plus the attack on Nilp (whether as a jest or not) is slightly uncalled for. Considering I can think of at least one other villager who was/is doing the same thing.
Zali=
This looks ludicrous, I know, to appear suddenly and hop on the bandwaggon, especially since this is the second time it's happened. But each time, the people I found myself drawn to, suspicion-wise, were the same ones already set up as a lynch waggon.
Isn't that lucky for you, Zali? She also apologizes in advance if she's wrong, as is Zali's norm I believe. I hate that, if you think they're guilty, why say you're sorry?

Lalaith

05-19-2006, 09:00 AM

Gurthang, my chief concern was that you would be challenged by the EW at some point toDay or tomorrow, and therefore unable to make a list for us. :(
That's why I wanted to get in a contigency plan.

Gurthang

05-19-2006, 09:32 AM

Gurthang, my chief concern was that you would be challenged by the EW at some point toDay or tomorrow, and therefore unable to make a list for us.
That's why I wanted to get in a contigency plan.
After I die, everything will be like a normal WW game. I won't be making more gifteds, and there won't be new werewolves. You guys will have to find the wolves just like those in the lorebooks, and I know you'll be able to do it.

But I have to leave, and there's no guarantee that I'll be back. I'm still drawn between Roa and Valier. There are good points for and against each of them. But I must decide.

++Valier

Her switch after Night 3 is telling. It makes a lot of sense if she were a wolf. There was also that strange crying apology post.

If I don't get back, then I'll see you guys tomorrow.

Roa_Aoife

05-19-2006, 09:32 AM

You know, that brings up something I've been wondering about myself- So in the event of a challenge, are both wizards removed immediately? Or do they last till the end of the day? Do they come up with a cool fight scene? That would be cool. Gurthang vs the EW in what might be considered an actual RP. After Gurthang's opening, it's something I bet I'd enjoy reading.

The Diamond analysis is coming- I haven't done this much work since Lommy's massive flood posting several games ago. :eek:

Kath

05-19-2006, 09:43 AM

OK, you've all written way, way, way too much and I'm not even going to pretend that I'm going to read through all of it properly toDay, but I've done a skim read and know basically what's going on.

Gurthang I'll follow your lead and list.

++VALIER

Because she has been so against Roa from the word go, to the extent that she doesn't even seem to see other possible candidates.

Now, my apologies but this will be my only post toDay I should think. T'was my last day of minstrel school and I've spent the last couple of hours drowning my sorrows and am therefore not completely with it, and may be heading out again in the near future. BUT. This does not mean this is a random vote. I took Gurthang's list and voted for the one I found most suspicious from previous Days and as much of toDay as I read.

One thing, regifting Nilp toNight would be a good plan. If the EW then goes after him there's a stalemate, we lose a Gifted toNight but the EW doesn't gain a wolf. And if the EW doesn't go after Nilp we gain a Seer for at least one Night.

Lalaith

05-19-2006, 09:47 AM

Well, Kath, there is always the option that the wolves will just kill Nilp. In fact, there will be two kills tonight, as there will be at least four wolves even if we succeed in killing one toDay

Kath

05-19-2006, 09:49 AM

Told you I wasn't with it :rolleyes: Thanks for making that clear Lalaith.

dancing spawn of ungoliant

05-19-2006, 10:24 AM

I've already explained why I didn't volunteer for the position. I'd die too fast. Well, as far as I can see you're still alive. :p

Anyway, out of those who are not on the death list I find Caran quite Wolvish toDay. I noticed that Caran has been a bit apologetic from the beginning (e.g. she apologised to Loki), and she has said quite little about her own suspicions. Sure, she has named suspects and defended some villagers, but her cases certainly aren't verbose. She seems to like talking about the theoretical aspect of Wizard/Wolf hunting much more than actually catching them. She often gives voting stats which is helpful, but tells very little of Caran herself.

ToDay Caran hasn't voiced suspicions at all. She has just defended herself, listed the unknown villagers and said that Di and Roa's initial reluctance to follow "the plan" makes them look less suspicious. Somehow it seems that the whole time Caran has acted more carefully than you'd assume by reading the lorebooks. That carefulness has been pretty apparent especially toDay.

Alas, how I have rued my vote from yesterDay... But, as Firefoot said, you win some, you lose some.An apologizer... *shudders* ;) Seriously though, as Diamond pointed out, this is a bit odd statement. Caran already gave her explanation, but still.

I know this is the blasted "polling the village" and I'll be jumped upon for it, but does anyone have something in their lorebooks about Roa as an innocent?To me that doesn't look the suspicious kind of "polling", it's just a question. However, that precautious behaviour is something that raises red flags in my mind.

It's not much, just a few things that make me wonder about Caran's allegiance, but looking at the votings and general reputation of people, I think Caran might have been a tempting pick for the EW.

Now, the votes are:

Diamond -> Zali
Jenny -> Valier
Roa -> Valier
Alcarillo -> Roa
Fea -> Roa
Nilp -> Zali
Firefoot -> Zali
Lommy -> Eomer
Gurthang -> Valier
Kath -> Valier (Valier-4, Zali-3, Roa-2, Eomer-1)

More later.

Roa_Aoife

05-19-2006, 10:24 AM

Diamond analysis- Since there's too much for me to keep track of, I'm going to analyze as I summarize.

Day 1
1st post - Nonsense, states intention to not vote for anyone in her family, and vote to save any one of theses members, will drop this after Day 1, gives thoughts on villagers (mostly nonsense), though some predictions turned out accurately:

Nogrod ~ My dear long suffering hubby, it's only a matter of time before he snaps. Sure he's okay now, but watch out for that one in the later stages.

Naria ~ Inhuman.

The Saucepan Man ~ Must die.

Of course, this is just as likely luck as it is something malicious. It just caught my eye, and made me wonder if she managed to state anymore truths.

2nd- Response to Loki, tells him to calm down

3rd - Defends Nogrod's attack on Loki, personal attack on Loki's playing style

4th - Response to Alcarillo, says she didn't threaten Cailin, merely predicted her death, says she hopes the predictions do not come true, more nonsense

5th - Clarification on the Loki matter- says it's reasonable that both wizards chose Loki, but refuses to believe it on his word alone, says there's no way of knowing except to kill Loki.

Here she says that Loki's claim is reasonable, but she refuses to believe it anyways.

6th - After suggestion by Celuien, questions Nogrod's reasons for attacking Loki, finds some of Nogrod's comments strange

I find this an odd turn around after everything that she'd said earlier. She admits that Nogrod's reasons don't really make sense, but only after Celuien remarked on it

7th - Nonsense response to phantom

8th - Says she's clueless about what sort of posting might reveal an Evil Wizard, believes the EW will be quiet, states that it would be really good for the village to catch the EW right now (Well, duh…)

9th - Agrees with Naria's guess about what the wizards fear. More Nonsense.

10th - This quote:
Yes... well, all that about the EW having more to fear than the GW and wanting to stay hidden as long as possible has been discussed as we've been, er, heeding the Watchers prophecy and preparing for the day when the Shadow arrived.

Sounds like she was trying to dismiss the talk about the EW

It's followed shortly by this:

Which brings me back around to expecting that the EW will be relatively quiet, banking on slipping just under our watchfulness. Being too quiet is suspicious in and of itself, so we'll be looking for someone riding the middle ground.

The second time she's stated that the EW will be quiet. She says it again later in her post. This looks incredibly similar to what Nogrod was saying about the wolves all being quiet, and it makes me wonder if she's trying to get us to look elsewhere for the EW.

11th - Glad she isn't the first to vote, doesn't fault Nilp's vote for Nogrod, admits Nogrod is suspicious, votes for Loki, wants to see Loki gone, says she'd give him the benefit of the doubt if it weren't for his attitude- This seems slightly hypocritical of Diamond since she's known for her attitude, and my lore books say that it's gotten her lynched before. It may also be a cover for her o be rid of the "one that got away"

Apologizes to family for not being around to save them if it becomes necessary.

This is just a devil's advocate view, but now that we know Nogrod was a wolf, and that he had fallen under suspicion at the point, it's possible that this was a direct comment to Nogrod.

Day 2, up next… Oi vey…

Kitanna

05-19-2006, 10:33 AM

DAY THREE
Zali=
For some reason, prolonged wailing on and on really hits a nerve in me, which I'm sure is not entirely reasonable. But there it is. At least Diamond's post didn't feel like it was lacking in substance. Alcarillo provides no explanation for this totally in character wailing.
A reasonable case against Alcarillo, but up until this point she had seen nothing wrong with him. Now his melodramatic mourning session did give many people reason to suspect him and Zali may be no different. But you never know, she could have had a sudden change of heart for another reason.
Zali=
I'm going to vote for Eomer because he has, at the very least, an unhealthy obsession with the EW. I realize that this is happening without giving him any chance to defend himself, which is not ideal.
A vote for Eomer based on what Morm brought forward for us to see.
Zali=
Should Eomer turn out to be innocent, I think it's fairly obvious that we ought to look closely at Mormegil who got this bandwaggon-to-be rolling.
Again not unreasonable, but if I had to say anyone started an Eomer bandwagon it would have been Zali not Morm, since she cast the first vote against him. I feel this is just Zali covering her tracks if she happens to be wrong and Eomer is killed an innocent. This makes me think if Zali is guilty, then Eomer is most likely an innocent.
Eomer=
Mormegil, I'm trying to think like the EW in order to guess who he/she picked as wolves. Because, in the early going at least, there's no solid logic to work with. It's mostly guesswork. That's why I consider what would be good EW picks and go from there.
But almost every post from day one was about your supposed choices if you were evil, that doesn't look very good for you, considering your history.
Eomer=
but there is no way I am being cursed as a wolf. My survival rate is pitiful.
I believe this to be beyond true. I seriously doubt any EW would dare pick Eomer as a wolf. I'd say he's the EW or nothing.
Valier=
I know this is in the Narration, but I find this extremely odd as well......Weaving TALES are we? You know....this sounds like Roa's making alot of bluffing stories....I know we shouldn't use this, but where does it say that there isn't a shred of truth in the deaths?
I find it odd and troubling Valier used the narration to find some sort of evidence, even if we all knew it meant very little.
Valier=
I found this as well and it seems to have been true....I think Nogrod and Naria would have been bad picks for the GW, hence good picks for the EW. Also Loki could be in this list as well... Sounds Fishy to me that Roa's "plan" came true...Could just be a coincedence, but I doubt it...
I find it rather fishy you picked one wolf as a "goodie" and one wolf as a "baddie." What Roa said is just as odd as what you said.
Valier=
I don't think they're far fetched...So the Phantom let everyone know that he was the Hunter then by posting the arrow and I don't think it far fetched that he very well may have put in an anagram. I think Naria or one of the other wolves picked up on that and voted to kill him.....but I am still not sure.....Phantom did not kill Naria though
Funny you should say this. If you picked up on that when phantom posted it you could have decided to kill phantom in the night and your wolven comrades had a similar idea. However as many pointed out to Valier, phantom was not made the Hunter until that day had ended. So why did Valier continue to push her arrow idea?
Roa=
Valier- your record so far has been less than steller. First, you cast the vote that put Loki (an innocent) in the lead, then you decided the Nogrod wasn't a threat. My lorebook tells me that you are astoudingly off your game. Or perhaps your doing so purposfully. Either way, your instinct has not been trustworthy this game.
A true statement, but I can't help feeling Roa is just trying to get everyone to look a Valier and not her.
Roa=
I don't understand all of the suspicion for Alcarillo. He had a reason to defend himself, as people were suspecting him, and SPM's death made him look quite bad. And while I don't particularly like incharacter posts at this stage of the game, I don't see it making him guilty.
Roa defended Loki who turned out to be innocent, here she defends Alcarillo, who no one knows about yet. And she attacked Nogrod who turned out to be guilty. This could go either way, Roa may well be innocent and has really good luck in catching the good and bad. Or she could be trying to put herself out there as an innocent and she can fall back on "I was right about Loki and Nogrod, why shouldn't I be right about Alcarillo?" If that is true and Roa is evil I'd say look closely at Alcarillo. If she's innocent, I wouldn't remove Alcarillo from the suspect list, but I'd focus on others before him.
Eomer=
Flipped a coin?!?! I'm beginning to think this relationship was a bad idea. :p
Picking between one's mother and one's love is not an easy choice you know. :p
Valier=
Feel free to look at me deeply tomorrow if I don't get killed by evil Roa and her wolves overnight....I have nothing to hide!
Not the first and most certainly not the last time Valier comes out and says Roa is the EW. I find it hard to see an EW Valier doing this over and over again. It raises an alarm, but I'm not entirely sure what to make of it. Valier just made this day chaotic, maybe she was just putting the cherry on the top.

DAY FOUR
Valier=
So I would like to find a wolf today and let the wizards do their own thing when they are ready.
Given Valier's oddity of Day three I decided to look into this statement. Mainly because most of the village has said finding the EW should be a main concern because then s/he can't make anymore wolves. Valier says the opposite. Valier had been pretty reckless earlier and given that it's hard for me to say what I should make of this. If I ignored Valier's claims of Roa being the EW and the whole phantom's arrow post, then I might say she is guilty. But given her behavior I find it hard to figure this out.
Roa=
Um, Fea, if the GW stepped forward, we could just lynch him to test his claim. And, actually, I'm not terribly opposed to that, except that we need to catch a wolf today, not a GW. The EW wouldn't really have any benefit to protecting the GW. Take some advil and possibly a nap.
I feel the village would lose a day with this plan and that is what the EW would want. Of course blindly following someone's claim is bad, but I can't see the evil ones gaining much by coming forward as the GW. That just gives the GW a leg up.
Valier=
I know, I know I cannot prove Roa is the EW (until she dies of course) and sadly no, I am not the unSeer. I just have a really strong feeling that's all! But I think our focus today should be on catching a wolf.
But your gut feelings have been wrong so far this game and it's possible they're wrong now. And if you are innocent lynching Roa on your gut feeling may be your doom as well (if she's innocent). But I know how you feel Valier, but even if you're right the wolves won't let you live through the night.
Valier=
Even if I was a wolf I would surely read everthing more careful, would I not? because making up lies is far harder than telling the truth or how I feel, which has been what I've been doing. I understand how others think I look suspicious but, like always in the Lore books if you check I am always found innocent when lynched because of my weird outbursts and accusations.
She speaks a good deal of truth here, but a small nagging feeling says she may be trying to bluff us.

Kitanna

05-19-2006, 10:48 AM

Roa~ An excellent choice as a wolf. She has well thought-out arguements and can persuade others to her way of thinking. I'm not sure I think she's the EW, mainly because she had Nogrod lynched. Not just lynched, but she had a good case against him. I'd think if the EW picked her to be a wolf he'd reveal the others to her so she could avoid attacking them during the day in the fashion she attacked Nogrod. I'd say at the time of Nogrod's death Roa may not have been wolf. Knowing she can cover her tracks and persuade so well she may be the EW, but I'm not ready to put my vote on that.
Eomer~ An excellent bluffer and his "if I were the EW" statements do worry me, but the more I think about it the less likely I feel this bluff could be. He could pull it off, but I'm not as convinced today as I was yesterday. In any case he's a terrible wolf choice and if he's anything, he's the EW.
Zali~ At first nothing seemed amiss about her, but looking back she is rather odd. She was quick to jump on the Eomer bandwagon, which was partly because of time issues, but also looking at what had been said up until that point she may have thought Eomer would die and she wanted to make sure she had the first vote. Looking past that, Zali apologized for her votes, if she happened to be wrong. She tries to keep all her bases covered and has escape plans if her votes land her in trouble. What a good exit strategy. Her agreeable nature and ability to fly low and stay out of trouble makes her a choice for evil.
Valier~ A disturbing case. Valier's behavior of day three and part of today is so reckless I'm having trouble sorting out if she's bluffing us or just a terribly misguided innocent. She's a hard nut to crack and she gives me an uneasy feeling, but I can't vote based on that.

I'll probably vote for Zali or Valier today unless something happens before I get on to vote. But for now I'm going to go think over those two choices and figure out who is more likely to be evil.

Valier

05-19-2006, 10:48 AM

Well I'm back now and I guess I have some defending to do.

Her switch after Night 3 is telling. It makes a lot of sense if she were a wolf. There was also that strange crying apology post

and some say I don't read carefully!! This appologetic post was for the Mod, for me using the narration for clues!!

Valier - That's her normal playing style! Stop suspecting her for that! I have fallen to suspect her only because of that enough times to be quite sure she's innocent. Wolfvalier is - according to the sole chapter in my lorebook on the topic - more careful than ordovalier. And we can't accuse our Valier here for overcaredulness.

Thank goodness someone knows how I play!!

Ok in this post Valier gives a list of who she thinks is good and who she thinks may be evil. On the bad list Naria appears, on the good list Nogrod appears. I don't have a whole lot to go on from that, but I did find that interesting.
Quote:

Yes I put Nogrod on my Goodie list because I thought he was innocent...boy did I get fooled!
I would just like to say that I don't think my switch in game play is odd! I believe Roa is guilty, but now that the GW is out I thought I would not have to concentrate on the wizards anymore and I could just look at who would be wolves....what's wrong with that?

Lalaith

05-19-2006, 10:54 AM

Yes, catching wolves is good, but we really, really need to catch the EW soon.
While the EW lives, there will be two villager deaths a night. (And when the wolf population grows to seven, there will be three.) Even in the extremely unlikely situation that we successfully lynch a wolf every day, a new one will have appeared by morning to replace him.

Valier

05-19-2006, 11:02 AM

I agree with you that the EW needs to go...why do you think I was pushing for Roa to go? I know noone else believes me about her, but what else was I supposed to do just quietly say Oh I think Roa is the EW? I wanted to cause a big fuss about it and was hoping to get some good reactions so I could strengthen my case against her and her Baddies. I thought everyone wanted to find the wolves and wanted me to look for them and not accuse the EW, that is why I made the "switch" to now start looking for wolves. So did anybody even look to see how others took my outbursts?

Roa_Aoife

05-19-2006, 11:25 AM

Diamond: Day 2

1st - post Says she wrote the post during the Night, with out knowing who would die in the morning.
Response to Spawn, doesn't think the phantom is the EW,
Again states that the EW will opt for Discretion.
Also says that the EW may not follow logic, just to throw us off, points out that the EW may have picked high profile players,
States again that the EW will opt for discretion.
Nonsense response to Glirdan.
Agrees with Fea, says the GW is supposed to be a martyr.
More reasons why phantom wouldn't be the EW, but thinks he might be the GW
Says that we can't narrow the wizard search to those who have more time.
Response to SPM's list of unlikely gifteds
Response to Loki, says she voted him off because he was causing confusion in the village. (Odd considering how few posts Loki made, a couple at the beginning, and one at the end…. )
For some reason, has assumed that Roa is Loki's "friend" , again defends her vote for Loki
Again states that phantom isn't the EW.
Thinks Roa is a wizard based on "friend theory" assumes Loki was chosen because of friendship.

This is in direct contradiction with her post on day one, where she said she could see the logic in Loki as a choice for both wizards. Also, she seems quite ready to disregard any theories concerning the EW, with out putting forth any of her own, except that the EW will be quiet and use discretion, conveniently the opposite of her behavior.

2nd- post wonders about narration for gifteds

3rd - Response to Celuien, kind of agrees, mostly disagrees. Says everyone mentioned by SPM would find it risky to kill him. Also says that is could be a double bluff. In essence, she says nothing.

4th - apologizes for mistakenly attributing one of Spawn's quotes to Fea

5th - Sort of responds to morm, what she says doesn't really make sense here
Says she doesn't feel bad for lynching Loki, could give reasons why she found him offensive, but decides not to since he can't defend himself - No remorse for lynching an innocent?
Wishes things were moving faster at the moment, but says she'll have to vote early tomorrow
States again that phantom is innocent
Wonders if morm has some extra knowledge about the gifteds not performing their duties.
Says that while morm normally has good instincts she doesn't trust them at the moment, because she's innocent and he suspects her.

6th - Nonsense with phantom, wonders where Roa is, more nonsense, response to Fea, says her theory about Roa-Loki connection could only be half right at best, since both wizards chose him

7th - response to phantom about the seer not dreaming

8th - Says she's at a loss for who to vote for, admits that she is loud and troublesome like Loki (which is why she lynched him- again, hypocrisy) says Roa's answers were satisfactory, admits that among her banter it was difficult to find something to respond to, doesn't think Gurthang is a wizard… well, oopsie on her…
Votes Nogrod, says she suspected him yesterday, (directly in contradiction with her posts previous to Celuien's point) says one of his reasons (the early post, which she criticized Loki for previously) was just silly.
Apologizes.

I agree with Spawn, apologies creep me out.

Day 3 up next

Eomer of the Rohirrim

05-19-2006, 11:27 AM

O Mother! :(

In this time of sorrow I have not had an opportunity to come to the village square until now; but now that I'm here I will offer some quick thoughts.

First of all, go with Gurthang! This is a no-brainer: take his advice.

Second, this has been implied but not stated explicitly. The EW is more than likely female, right? To balance Gurthang? Worth thinking about. Fea is still my number one suspect for the EW.

Kit, I've already explained why I focused on the EW; and I've already explained why my posts took that general format. The style underlines the point that all I could do at that time was guess how the EW was working. I'm not averse to in-your-face bluffery (just ask those Corsairs from last year :D — nevermind)...

[and that is not an example]

...I'm not doing it now. Only proof of this, of course, would be to lynch me.

Another thing: I believe Valier may be, what some in the industry call, the sacrificial wolf. Pretty much all her strange behaviour is acomplishing is getting the village in a fantastic kerfuffle. Her single-minded attack on Roa is just uncalled for in a village as vast as this one still is. I think she could well be trying to instigate unrest, with the possible intention of making her wolf-allies look good by suspecting her. As I suggested before, it's not like she came out all guns blazing at the start. She seemed more tentative in her discussion of game rules, and when criticised for it she got rather sketchy. Scrambly, I would go so far to say. :p

I think I may go with my instinct again and vote for Valier. Oh, and was it Kitanna who asked me about Lommy and Nogrod? Yes, I truly did believe that Nogrod would have been a good pick for the EW at the start. Maybe it was this ultra-vigilance of the villagers that got him lynched; maybe he made unusual errors; maybe we just got lucky (Hmm....wonder if that's the right answer...) I sincerely think that there's nothing inherently worrisome about Nogrod, unlike Lommy.

So: I maintain that Nogrod was a good original pick and Lommy was a terrible one, and is thus not a wolf.

Roa_Aoife

05-19-2006, 11:28 AM

Kitanna, just to clarify- I was not suggesting we lynch Gurthang. I was pointing out why it would be illogical for a bad guy to pose as the GW. I also said that we needed to catch a wolf, to keep the wolf population from growing. And while I think catching the EW is a good idea too, at that time, I didn't really have any clues for who the EW may be.

Lalaith

05-19-2006, 11:42 AM

Kitanna - I've just read through your analysis and one thing struck me, while it was very good, you seemed to be assuming that the wolves knew each other. I don't think this is the case.

mormegil

05-19-2006, 11:48 AM

Okay, I haven't read anything after post 672 except Valier's posts as I wanted to read what she had to say before I vote for her to see if I could be persuaded and I state that I am not!

Her day one and two behavior was consistent with my general impression of her and she took a drastic switch on day 3 and has remained consistently wolfish since. It seems to make perfect sense that she was converted on that night and underwent a physical and emotional change with it. I would imagine it would be difficult to switch alliegences and I expect that we can use that to help us find other converted wolves. I believe we that at least two of the three originals are gone so now we need to find those whose behavior patterns shift. Caran is another notable figure but Valier is the most notable ergo I vote

++Valier

Would a guilty Lommy defend Valier or would a guilty Lommy defend an innocent Valier? Dependent upon what we find out if Valier is lynched those questions need to be addressed.

Sleepy Ranger

05-19-2006, 11:50 AM

Argh! Time differences are making it very hard for me to keep up with this game. Of course I don't plan to drop out, just don't expect me to seem sane or make the right choice always. However, one vote could always prove the difference so yeah, I shall stick around. :)

Valier

05-19-2006, 11:54 AM

It seems to make perfect sense that she was converted on that night and underwent a physical and emotional change with it. I would imagine it would be difficult to switch alliegences

If only this were true....I find it harder to be innocent!!! I made a serious decision to go gungho and attempt to help the village in a big way by bringing them who I think is the EW, but if Roa is indeed an Ordo I will have to back off from these "games" for awhile, for I decided this time to infact go with my gut absolutely and not quell. Time will tell how this will work for me.

Lalaith

05-19-2006, 11:56 AM

But morm - as I said to Kitanna just now, how would Lommy know if Valier were innocent or guilty unless Lommy were the EW?

Roa_Aoife

05-19-2006, 11:59 AM

Diamond, Day 3
1st post - Mostly in character, which is odd since on Day 2 she told Glirdan that the time had come to move past that.

2nd - Believes that the wolves know who each other are, see reasoning here (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=468257&postcount=391).
Finds morm's case against Eomer interesting, points out that Eomer may be the GW

3rd - Thinks that anyone stressing that the wolves do not know each other is likely a wolf.

4th - Overview of Loki and Nogrod
Points out people who agreed with her about Loki- this could be a tactic to hide in the crowd, as it were
Decides to ignore the posts of phantom and SPM
Says she post her ideas about this later.
The rest of it is here (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=468265&postcount=395
)
5th - comes up with opinion on previous post based on assumption that wolves know each other. It seems that she wants us to really go along with this theory and points us in that direction.

6th - Asks other people to analyze those that stressed the wolves do not know each other.

7th - Uses a post by Nogrod to state that the wolves must know each other.

8th - Nonsense response to Jenny for accusing her of cluttering the village with weird theories (which she is)
Decides to back off her theory about the wolves knowing each other
Says she doesn't want to vote for Eomer, Alcarillo, and Celuien.
Says she might vote for Fea
Says the worst person in her view is Zali

9th - Votes Zali

10th - Response to Kitanna's suspision, wonders if EW decided to take advantage of families not voting for each other

Kitanna

05-19-2006, 12:10 PM

Kitanna - I've just read through your analysis and one thing struck me, while it was very good, you seemed to be assuming that the wolves knew each other. I don't think this is the case.
I'm aware of that and I'm taking both options into consideration when I vote. There's a chance the wolves know which would single out some people, but it's more likely they do not know which makes things much harder.

mormegil

05-19-2006, 12:14 PM

I'm getting caught up but I wanted to comment on on post 673 by Kitanna...no not on its unusual length ;) but rather on it's case against Valier. Kitanna does a nice job sumarising the ongoing suspicions I've had of her. Kitanna seems to be most insightful today and is most likely innocent based on that. Roa also brought up good points about Diamond in the previous post but I"m still more convinced of Valier than any other currently.

mormegil

05-19-2006, 12:16 PM

But morm - as I said to Kitanna just now, how would Lommy know if Valier were innocent or guilty unless Lommy were the EW?

Lalaith but you are operating under the assumption that the wolves don't know each other but I'm not entirely sure that's the case. It could well be true but there are ways they could know each other and not have the EW reveal him/herself.

Diamond18

05-19-2006, 12:30 PM

This seems slightly hypocritical of Diamond since she's known for her attitude, and my lore books say that it's gotten her lynched before.

Actually, I've never been lynched. I've just been the runner up on several occasions.

My personal view of Loki was that he was malicious -- from the get-go (this means, before the death of Elempi). I hope my general behavior towards people here isn't malicious, though I suppose when I come up against a person I think is really bad news, I can get a little single minded in my opposition. You have never held the same opinion about him as I have -- I get that, so, oh well.

Anyway, you are quite the trooper for analyzing my posts, so I can't say much else about the devil's advocate view. I just thought I'd respond to the way I seemed to be attacking the pooooor innocent newbie -- who started spitting on us as soon as he appeared. :rolleyes:

Oh -- I don't think I told Gurthang the time for roleplaying was past -- though I do remember making some kind of comment to Glirdan to that effect. I don't mean people should drop roleplaying altogether, I just don't think it should have any bearing on the votes (i.e. not voting for family) now that we have more to go on. I think that roleplaying is a part of the game, which I've said, oh, many times.

Hmmmm... I've already voted toDay so I'm not sure that I have much else to do here before I'm gone for the rest of the Day. I still feel that Valier is most likely innocent -- unless she's really bluffing us. I do find her continued insistence that the lorebooks will prove her innocence to be a little sketchy -- I mean, as a wolf she could be trying to act as "par for the course" as she can -- but I guess my instinct tells me no. So even if I hadn't already voted, I wouldn't be voting for her. But, it's in the rest of the villagers' hands now. We'll see what happens.

Roa_Aoife

05-19-2006, 12:37 PM

I don't really have the time or the energy right now to continue.

Diamond started off as really suspicious looking, but her behavior has died down slwoly over the past few days. I don't like her aiding in Loki's death, even after she pointed out that his declaration was plausible, and that Nogrod's reasons were fishy. She's posted way more nonsense stuff than she usually does, after she told Glirdan that after Day 1 it was out of place. Also, she seems quite eager to discredit theories about the EW, and keeps trying to say that the EW would be a quiet-ish player using discretion. This theory is not with out merit, but it is clearly pointing away from her and onto someone else. She also keeps repeating it, over and over. I suspected Nogrod for saying sort of the same things about wolfs.

Also, she herself pointed out that the EW could have used family bonds as a cover, and it is possible that she chose Nogrod in order to do just that. I can also see her picking Naria, and Loki, and then turning on him when he was turned back. If she isn't dreamed of tonight, I'd like to see her on the list tomorrow.

Edit: Cross posted- I meant to say Glirdan, not Gurthang- told you I was too tired for this.

dancing spawn of ungoliant

05-19-2006, 12:55 PM

Thank goodness that there are people here who have had time toDay to analyse other villagers, providing quotes and all. Now, here are my thoughts of those on the Death List.

Valier - I'm truly baffled how she seems to be so confident about Roa being the EW. Then again, I can sympathise with stubborn people... it's only that usually they have had a case against a villager. Now it's "just" a gut feeling.
She has been confused about the Nightly activities ie. how many Gifteds/Wolves there are. She was also confused when phantom became a Hunter. It might be a bluff, but I should think that if Valier was a Wolf, she'd know these things better. If we had a Cobbler (which we don't), I'd say it's Valier.

Roa - If Roa is a baddie, I think she's the EW. After a little disagreement earlier toDay she's been helpful with her analyses. Providing good posts is what any sensible villager in trouble would do to save their skin, though. Making strong defences and accusations (Loki and Nogrod) could be a way to try to make us believe that she's a helpful villager, but this is a bit same thing as in Valier's case. Neither of the ladies are the Seer or GW, so how can they be so sure? The only person beside the GW and Seer who has more information than others is the EW (if s/he hasn't informed the Wolves about each other).

Eomer - I haven't been suspicious of him, so it's a bit hard to say anything about him. There actually were some good points in morm's "trumped-up" case, but I'm not fully convinced about morm's innocence either, so...

Zali - Well, I was really suspicious of Zali yesterDay. Too bad that she hasn't been around toDay. I still think that her behaviour was odd, but I don't know if she could be the EW. I think she's very likely a Wolf although as others have said her timing yesterDay was unfortunate for her... I understand that if you're busy, a ready theory is an easy option. She just has been a bit too cautious and on the other hand eager to go with the masses.

That's it for me, I'm out of the Village Square. I shall vote for the person on the list whom I find the most EWish. That would be:

++ROA

One more thing, though.

I'm aware of that and I'm taking both options into consideration when I vote. There's a chance the wolves know which would single out some people, but it's more likely they do not know which makes things much harder. At least Loki didn't know his fellow wolves. Now that the amount of the wolves has grown also the probability that the GW or Seer stumbles upon one has grown which would make it rather dangerous for the EW to let the wolves know each others' identities. One scried wolf could give away the names of the whole pack and even though we are not allowed to perform double lynchings and couldn't get rid of them at once, it would be quite a blow to the EW. Still, everything's possible, I guess.

Good Night!

Roa_Aoife

05-19-2006, 12:55 PM

Zali - 3
Valier - 5
Roa - 3
Eomer - 1

Votes so far - 12
Votes remaining - 10
Left to vote: Valier, Zali, Eomer, Caran, Glirdan (where is he?), Sleepy, Kitanna, Oddwen, Lal, Eonwe (see Glirdan)
Time Left - 3 hours, 5 minutes

The lynch could go anyway right now.

Edit: I even checked before I posted! How does that keep happening?

Lalaith

05-19-2006, 01:01 PM

Morm, the rules seem quite categorical:
The werewolves do not know each other's identity because while they are werewolves at Night, they cannot detect the identities underlying the curses
Also:
Note: Werewolves do not PM each other and therefore cannot debate with each other; thus, they are not going to find out each others' identities

Even if the EW were allowed to communicate wolvish identities to his pack via the sub-mod, as spawn points out, it would be dangerous for him to do so.

Kitanna

05-19-2006, 01:05 PM

To repeat what I said before:
I think Roa is an excellent choice wolf-wise, but I don't think she's the EW because of the way she went after Nogrod on Day Two. She could be a wolf, but I'm more concerned with voting for who I think is the EW today.
Eomer is probably not going to be picked as a wolf. He may be the EW, but his defense of himself is convincing. Depending on how today goes I'll be keeping a close eye on him, but for today I'm not convinced of his guilt or innocence.
Valier is a mystery. I don't have enough confidence to try and vote for her. Her playing is reckless and it worries me, but she could be a misguided innocent. I'm going to watch everything Valier says from now until she's proven innocent or guilty.

So that leaves:

++ Zali

She's been careful in covering her tracks and keepings all her bases cover, maybe a little too careful. She's trying to avoid slip-ups it seems and the EW has every reason to avoid slip-ups, s/he has a lot riding on their secret. Zali's careful posts and apologizes toward those she votes for worries me a lot. Almost more than Valier's reckless playing. I said earlier I'm focusing on who could be EW and I think Zali could be the EW, she'd also be a good wolf-pick.
Of the four Gurthang picked for us I feel Zali may be the guilty one.

Lalaith

05-19-2006, 01:05 PM

Well, I may as well vote now because I don't think I'm going to change my mind.

++VALIER

She fits in well with the werewolf demographic, as far as we know it. I think she'd be in demand as a wolf.

I'm quite impressed by Spawn's Roa-as-EW argument, and will give it thought tomorrow. But I've got some other thoughts about EWs as well and would like Gurthang's thoughts on this tomorrow, again, if we are all spared.

Roa_Aoife

05-19-2006, 01:08 PM

Lalaith, I think you missed this:

The evil wizard may choose to inform one or more werewolves who one or more other werewolves are; but this is a risky option and should be used with great care, considering the possible consequences.

The evil wizard is allowed to lie to his were-creatures.

So the EW can inform the werewolves who each other are, and the EW may also be lying to his wolves about who each other are. So a turned wolf is only useful information-wise if the EW has truthfully informed that wolf of who his/her comrades are.

Azaelia of Willowbottom

05-19-2006, 01:18 PM

This goes back a bit, I know, but I thought I ought to set up a defence. This is probably my least favorite part of playing.

Isn't that lucky for you, Zali? She also apologizes in advance if she's wrong, as is Zali's norm I believe. I hate that, if you think they're guilty, why say you're sorry?

It's a built-in, genetic defence mechanism, handed down from my ancestors, as frequently comes up in the book of WW lore. I'm wrong 99 percent of the time. I think my particular sig has never been quite so appropriate as it was now. *points to my sig quote*, which I know is not valid evidence, but truthful all the same.

Zali - I've thought her a pretty intelligent lass, so I can't believe her to be as careless as she now is if she were a wolf.

Well, thanks for the rather backward vote of confidence. You're right. I suck at subtlety, but if I was a wolf, or the EW for that matter, I'd have been much less...well, less like this, anyhow. This whole snafu certainly would not have happened. I made some serious mistakes, and as I was making them, I knew it.

I feel like a vote magnet. I definitely deserved what I got yesterday (A near-lynching scare) but I'm not so sure I deserve all these votes now. But whatever. No one likes a whiner.

Diamond said that she found my comparison of her IC post to Alcarillo's yesterDay as suspicious, and I feel the need to explain myself.

Diamond-mum, your particular IC post was helpful-ish, and actually helped make me more sure that you were innocent...At least, it didn't feel like I was reading a load of drivel.

Alacrillo's, on the other hand was repetitive wailing, which no one wants to hear. It didn't provide anything to the village, and looked more like a wolf doing an unsuccessful job of trying to hide...

More to come later, I'm off to review some more.

I guess it just comes down to a difference in style.

Azaelia of Willowbottom

05-19-2006, 01:24 PM

Oh, and I meant to add: I'm innocent, but honestly, the village could do worse than to lynch me today. I'm neither good wizard nor gifted (as you all well know) and I know I'm definitely not on the list to become gifted, either. With all the unwanted attention I have the bizarre attraction for, I doubt I'm on anyone's "Must make were" list, either. I would not necessarily a particularly logical choice for a wolf or for a gifted...and the amount of suspicion directed towards me over the past two Days proves that.

Just know that if the vote does swing my direction toDay, that you'll be lynching an honest-to-goodness innocent villager, not a werewolf. Nor will you be forcing the EW to reveal him/herself. (I knew from the moment this game was mentioned that I didn't want to be a wizard--I have barely enough free time to just be ordinary!).

I'm not asking for votes, just trying to paint an honest picture of myself, here.

Azaelia of Willowbottom

05-19-2006, 01:30 PM

Third post in a row, here... Both Dancing Spawn and Kitanna have suggested that I am the EW. Don't waste your votes, people. Look at me. I've barely posted. It's a fairly busy time for me in RL. I have school. I have a job. I have drama club. I also am an unfortunate victim of timezoneitis. Why would I want to be a wizard? In fact, coming into this game, I had a lot of thoughts about how would I play a role such as wolf or gifted, should it come to me, but I knew the one thing I especially didn't want to be was a wizard. So thank goodness the God of Mod took applications only for that part.

OK, done posting for now. Sorry about the three-in-a-row thing, but I didn't want to just edit my posts as more stuff popped into my head, in case someone else was on/making a post and wouldn't see the changes. I hope at least I've provided something to consider before the rest of you vote.

Eomer of the Rohirrim

05-19-2006, 01:36 PM

Not that this has anything to do with anything but I can't imagine dear Zali being a wolf. It just seems so.....wrong. ;)

Some people were dismayed by her vote for me yesterday, latching onto Mormegil's case; but I am sympathetic to what she did. Her previous suspects had been lynched and she had to find a new one. Lo and behold, Morm presents a nice case against me and she takes the chance. She could be a wolf, but I'm inclined to give her the benefit of the doubt. Isn't it weird how we do that with certain villagers?

I must vote now in case I can't make it back later. I still think Fea's the EW; still think that Valier is one of the more recent picks. There are a number of villagers who are coming across as innocent right now but I'm going to keep my mouth shut on that matter until tomorrow at least.

++VALIER

Oh, and while I remember: Lhuna, I feel great sadness now you are no longer with us. I will never forget...

Caranlondien

05-19-2006, 01:49 PM

Goodness, how did I manage to sleep so late?

It always alarms me when people decide them must vote for one of the top candidates. It screams that they don't want to stand out. If you really don't think Celuien guilty then don't vote for her. Does this make sense? It appears that she's so concerned with making herself stand out that she makes it a point to fit it with the main stream.
Now I forget who said this... but anyway, I meant that I wasn't happy with any of the people I felt suspicious of. In other words, I didn't have a very strong feeling about any suspect. So I voted Celuien.

And sorry for apologizing so much (oh the irony)! I apologize as politeness to the ghosts of the dead. It's a game, and I don't want anyone feeling unwanted. :) I fully intend to apologize to all those who I help to wrongly lynch, so sorry in advance, for continuing to say sorry. (Really, I can't help it. It's a regular utterance for me; I think I say "sorry" around 20 times a day.)

So, now that that's out of the way, here are some quick thoughts on the candidates:

Eomer: I'm not keen on lynching him toDay. I've only had time to skim over what's been said on him, but I agree with Kitanna that he'd make a poor wolf choice. As she said, that doesn't rule out EW, though...

Azaelia: Her latest posts seem very innocent to me. I won't be voting for her.

Valier: I don't think she's guilty, either. Unless the EW picked her as a wolf and told her to take her intuitive playing style and run with it, she's acting just how I would expect an innocent Valier to act.

Roa: I fear Roa :D Maybe it's just that in my lorebooks, I've had a first-hand experience of how cunning an evil Roa can be, but I can't shake the feeling. I'll probably be voting for her.

Now, writing about Valier just now got me thinking... My ancestors have had trouble with wolvery because it's hard to see oneself as others do, and thus it is hard to act in the manner that others expect. But this time, there's an EW guiding the wolves, perhaps telling them how others will expect them to act. So maybe Valier is a wolf...

Another EW strategy I'm worried about: what if the remaining first-day wolf was instructed at the beginning to just stay quiet? Great way to escape suspicion, as so far we haven't lynched a quiet person. Of course, more recent choices were probably told to just keep acting like they have so far, because suddenly going quiet would seem odd.

Valier

05-19-2006, 01:58 PM

But this time, there's an EW guiding the wolves, perhaps telling them how others will expect them to act. So maybe Valier is a wolf...

I assure you no one is telling me how to act!:) I just find it odd that Roa seems so helpful and is concerned with what the EW would and should be doing and after I accused her, her behavior changed and her quick vote for me today in fact seals my suspicions of her. She is very cunning and evil and has orchestrated this bandwagon against me to save her own behind. I believe the wolves see me as a large threat and instead of killing me at night they have decided to get me lynched by my fellow villagers during the day.:(

Caranlondien

05-19-2006, 02:17 PM

1. Diamond-->Azaelia (Azaelia 1)
2. Jenny-->Valier (Azaelia 1, Valier 1)
3. Roa-->Valier (Azaelia 1, Valier 1, Roa 1)
4. Alcarillo-->Roa (Azaelia 1, Valier 1, Roa 2)
5. Feanor-->Roa (Azaelia 1, Valier 1, Roa 3)
6. Nilp-->Azaelia (Azaelia 2, Valier 1, Roa 3)
7. Firefoot-->Azaelia (Azaelia 3, Valier 1, Roa 3)
8. Lommy-->Eomer (Azaelia 3, Valier 1, Roa 3, Eomer 1)
9. Gurthang-->Valier (Azaelia 3, Valier 2, Roa 3, Eomer 1)
10. Kath-->Valier (Azaelia 3, Valier 3, Roa 3, Eomer 1)
11. mormegil-->Valier (Azaelia 3, Valier 4, Roa 3, Eomer 1)
12. dancing spawn-->Roa (Azaelia 3, Valier 4, Roa 4, Eomer 1)
13. Kitanna-->Azaelia (Azaelia 4, Valier 4, Roa 4, Eomer 1)
14. Lalaith-->Valier (Azaelia 4, Valier 5, Roa 4, Eomer 1)
15. Eomer-->Valier (Azaelia 4, Valier 6, Roa 4, Eomer 1)

Votes so far - 15
Votes remaining - 7
Left to vote: Valier, Zali, Caran, Glirdan (see TiG main board), Sleepy, Oddwen, Eonwe
Time Left - 1 hour, 45 minutes

Caranlondien

05-19-2006, 02:19 PM

Oops, I meant to vote in that post...

++Roa

1. Diamond-->Azaelia (Azaelia 1)
2. Jenny-->Valier (Azaelia 1, Valier 1)
3. Roa-->Valier (Azaelia 1, Valier 1, Roa 1)
4. Alcarillo-->Roa (Azaelia 1, Valier 1, Roa 2)
5. Feanor-->Roa (Azaelia 1, Valier 1, Roa 3)
6. Nilp-->Azaelia (Azaelia 2, Valier 1, Roa 3)
7. Firefoot-->Azaelia (Azaelia 3, Valier 1, Roa 3)
8. Lommy-->Eomer (Azaelia 3, Valier 1, Roa 3, Eomer 1)
9. Gurthang-->Valier (Azaelia 3, Valier 2, Roa 3, Eomer 1)
10. Kath-->Valier (Azaelia 3, Valier 3, Roa 3, Eomer 1)
11. mormegil-->Valier (Azaelia 3, Valier 4, Roa 3, Eomer 1)
12. dancing spawn-->Roa (Azaelia 3, Valier 4, Roa 4, Eomer 1)
13. Kitanna-->Azaelia (Azaelia 4, Valier 4, Roa 4, Eomer 1)
14. Lalaith-->Valier (Azaelia 4, Valier 5, Roa 4, Eomer 1)
15. Eomer-->Valier (Azaelia 4, Valier 6, Roa 4, Eomer 1)
16. Caran-->Roa (Azaelia 4, Valier 6, Roa 5, Eomer 1)

Votes so far - 16
Votes remaining - 6
Left to vote: Valier, Zali, Glirdan (see TiG main board), Sleepy, Oddwen, Eonwe
Time Left - 1 hour, 43 minutes

Roa_Aoife

05-19-2006, 02:26 PM

Caran, Valier is at 7 votes, not 6. And I'm only at 4. Go through your list again, carefully.

Valier, I did nothing to orchestrate any bandwagon against you. I barely said anything against you. If you want to blame someone, blame yourself for your behavior, and Gurthang for putting you on his List of Doom (TM). Honestly, it looks like your just grasping at straws again to throw doubt on your guilt.

Caranlondien

05-19-2006, 02:31 PM

Sorry! (See, can't help it...)

1. Diamond-->Azaelia (Azaelia 1)
2. Jenny-->Valier (Azaelia 1, Valier 1)
3. Roa-->Valier (Azaelia 1, Valier 2)
4. Alcarillo-->Roa (Azaelia 1, Valier 2, Roa 1)
5. Feanor-->Roa (Azaelia 1, Valier 2, Roa 2)
6. Nilp-->Azaelia (Azaelia 2, Valier 2, Roa 2)
7. Firefoot-->Azaelia (Azaelia 3, Valier 2, Roa 2)
8. Lommy-->Eomer (Azaelia 3, Valier 2, Roa 2, Eomer 1)
9. Gurthang-->Valier (Azaelia 3, Valier 3, Roa 2, Eomer 1)
10. Kath-->Valier (Azaelia 3, Valier 4, Roa 2, Eomer 1)
11. mormegil-->Valier (Azaelia 3, Valier 5, Roa 2, Eomer 1)
12. dancing spawn-->Roa (Azaelia 3, Valier 5, Roa 3, Eomer 1)
13. Kitanna-->Azaelia (Azaelia 4, Valier 5, Roa 3, Eomer 1)
14. Lalaith-->Valier (Azaelia 4, Valier 6, Roa 3, Eomer 1)
15. Eomer-->Valier (Azaelia 4, Valier 7, Roa 3, Eomer 1)
16. Caran-->Roa (Azaelia 4, Valier 7, Roa 4, Eomer 1)

Votes so far - 16
Votes remaining - 6
Left to vote: Valier, Zali, Glirdan (see TiG main board), Sleepy, Oddwen, Eonwe
Time Left - 1 hour, 43 minutes

Valier

05-19-2006, 02:40 PM

I cast my vote...

++Roa_Aoife

For the way she has reacted to my outburst...she says she has barely said anything to me about this, yes this is true, but she has been reading my posts carefully every time I do post and has had something to say, shortly after each one. She has already voted toDay, but sticks around, in case she needs to defend herself or seem helpful by analysing other players...I know there is nothing wrong with that since it may help in the future, but I think she is just a smart EW and she is covering all her bases. In fact I think in the Days to come she will sacrafice more of her wolves as she did Nogrod making her look more and more helpful and innocent. Then you are all doomed:(

Roa_Aoife

05-19-2006, 02:51 PM

The vote does not surprise but the reason does- that's it? That's all you've got, my very last post? What happened to everything else you've been spouting this whole time? What about your instincts? "She's done what an innocent would do! She must be evil! She defended herself against a false accusation! Quickly, Lynch her!" *sigh* I don't know why I even bother responding to you.

Valier

05-19-2006, 02:54 PM

*sigh* I don't know why I even bother responding to you.

Ah but you do anyways it seems......just like I said;) :p

Azaelia of Willowbottom

05-19-2006, 03:26 PM

Quoting Caran, who is in turn quoting someone whose name she does not remember: It always alarms me when people decide them must vote for one of the top candidates. It screams that they don't want to stand out. If you really don't think Celuien guilty then don't vote for her. Does this make sense? It appears that she's so concerned with making herself stand out that she makes it a point to fit it with the main stream.

I've learned this one the hard way. Wise words, regardless of who they came from in the first place. I see nothing wrong with voting with the majority if you have true, honest reasons for it, and you aren't just doing it because you're too lazy to figure out who to vote for on your own or you're too afraid of making a mistake.

I honestly don't really have any strong feelings on the subjects of any of the three other people who have earned votes so far at this point, so I am going to not take the opportunity to jump on another bandwaggon. I find Alcarillo suspicious. I am going to vote for him.

++Alcarillo

I know this is a turnaround, and that I defended him once a while back, but things change. His behavior lately has raised some red flags, and I know I'm not alone in noticing them.

I know this flies in the face of what our wonderful GW has asked us to do, and for that I apologize. It's not that I don't respect you, believe you, or agree with you, Gurthang. I feel like this vote is essentially a throwaway vote, but I just think Alcarillo shouldn't be allowed to fade into the background with this new business of revelations. It's my way of making my voice and opinion heard.

There may well be a wolf or two among the names listed, but I feel like it's a very short list.

I'm off to eat supper now, but I will hopefully be back before the end of the Day.

Sleepy Ranger

05-19-2006, 03:28 PM

++Roa_Aoife

Shes my wife, shes evil, she could do anything! I'm sorry, dear, better to be safe.

Valier

05-19-2006, 04:00 PM

Well since it looks like I'm dead, all I have to say is......

LONG LIVE THE EVIL WIZARD!!!!! BWAHAHAHAHAH!!!!!!

littlemanpoet

05-19-2006, 04:00 PM

Evil wizard, pick a player to curse.

Gurthang, pick a player to scry.

Hunter, pick a player to hunt.

Werewolves:

* Nominate a player A to be killed if there are only three of you after all is said and done on Night 5.

* Nominate a player B to be killed if there are four or more of you after all is said and done on Night 5.

A lynching narrative will be forthcoming in the next few hours.

littlemanpoet

05-19-2006, 06:33 PM

Dread fell upon the village. The clouds hung low, hiding the sun, but it did not rain. The air was still. Added to the seaside smell of salt, decaying seaweed, dead fish, and gull droppings, was the smell of blood. The dogs were frenzied with it, uncomfortably reminding the villagers of the growing number of werewolves. Alcarillo picked up the remains of his wife and, surrounded by the rest of the villagers, brought them to the graveyard. As Alcarillo dug the grave, Gurthang spoke.

"Hear me, villagers." His tone seemed foreboding. Suddenly he threw aside the large woolen cloak he was wearing, and behold! Everyone jumped back at the sight of a BLACK cloak underneath! Not black like dyed cloth, but a swirling, rich black that seemed to spread out from him. Sure that he was the Evil Wizard, they all ran for the door, but with a word he stopped them.

"Halt! Do not leave, for I have a message that none of you should miss. Do not fear me, for I am the Good Wizard. Though my color is Black, my heart is not. I am Gurthang the Black (Sword). I have been bidden to aid you in this time of trial. Evil has gained the upper hand. But do not quell, for they are only five among us all. Now, the real battle begins."

The revelation of the Good Wizard did not have the effect Gurthang had expected. The former seer, and father of Gurthang, Nilpaurion, taking strength in his obvious innocence, set aside gentleness and hurled ultimata. Some looked at Gurthang in envy, wondering why the Watchers hadn't picked them. Roa didn't like her independence of mind limited. Diamond threatened to get even grumpier. Valier insisted Roa was the evil wizard. "Why?" She was asked. "I'm convinced!" "By what?" she was asked. "My gut feeling!" The villagers groaned and told her to go back to her gardening.

Trying to get order back, Gurthang laid out a plan. Diamond and Roa pooh poohed the plan. Gurthang couldn't believe his ears and got snippy.

Caranlondien took her mushing whip and snapped it in the air. "Now listen, everybody, we all know it's no fun being told what to do, but our chances are improved. Don't you want to live?"

By way of answer, Diamond cast the first vote. "I'm voting early since I don't see anymore point in saying anything that's not sanctioned by Gurthang or Nilp." She turned on her heels and left the graveyard in a huff. Someone commented that her miff was sprung from family rivalry. After all, Diamond was having to live down the embarrassment of a rather wolvish, not to mention, largely dead, family, whilst Gurthang and Nilpaurion had suddenly been vaunted - for the first time in their lives in Sealville - to positions of honor, respect, and influence.

Into the ensuing calm was presented a series of character analyses by cooler heads. Amid the careful analyses fell a vote here, a vote there, and a cry from Valier that Roa was the evil wizard. The assemblage rolled their eyes yet again .... and yet another villager voted for Valier. Mormegil and then others decided that Diamond was unanalyzable because she simply talked too much. Apparently, talking too much was not considered an attribute of wolvishness, and she received no votes all day long.

Finally, Nilpaurion saw that maybe his tone had been somewhat offputting, and he apologized, asking the village to give his son half an ear.

Lommy came to Valier's defense: "That's just Valier."

"At least someone understands me!" cried Valier.

"How can you be so confident, unless you're the evil wizard, or a werewolf following orders?" asked Spawn.

"I'm not following anybody's orders!" Valier insisted.

But the more she talked, the more the votes against her piled up. But not her alone. Before the day was done, Eomer had received a vote, as had Alcarillo; Zali had received four votes as continuing suspicions swirled around her odd behavior since the death of her lover. Roa garnered six votes. But to Valier there accrued seven votes.

"No lynching for this one," Mormegil said. "We'll plant her in her garden and see what grows from the seed."

The villagers seemed to like this idea. The tied her up and walked her to her garden. They dug a hole. Soon it was deep enough so that her head was a foot below the ground level if she were standing at all her height. They dropped her in.

"Any last words?" Mormegil asked.

"LONG LIVE THE EVIL WIZARD!!!!! BWAHAHAHAHAH!!!!!!" She transformed. She burst her bonds. She howled. She grew. Her lupine head rose above the ground and her hairy arms sought purchase to lift herself up and out of the hole.

"Stone her!" cried Mormegil. It was lucky that the seaside was made as much of stone as sand and gravel and earth. The pelted her with stones of varying size until she was stuck in the hole, unable to get her hind legs free. They kept at her with the stones until her snout was bent to one side and her eyes had been bloodied shut, her arms broken, and finally, her head bashed in. She was no longer a pretty sight. And she was dead.

The sun set, though it could not be seen, for the sky was slate and the air was still. Blood was all over the ground, all over the clothing of those who had killed the werewolf, and the smell of blood was in the air. The villagers tried hard to get the blood off their hands, with little success. And they waited in fear for the coming night.

~ The Tally ~

One evil wizard
One good wizard
Three werewolves
One hunter

~ The Dead ~

Elempi, father of Diamond of the Battledore, killed on Night One
Loki the leech collector, lynched on Day One: innocent
The Saucepan Man the barkeep, killed on Night Two: innocent
Nogrod the retired jester, lynched on Day Two: werewolf
the phantom the loud, unpredictable, adventurer: hunter
Naria the servant who empties and cleans chamber pots: werewolf
Celuien the Healer and Cupper, lynched on Day Three: innocent
Lhunardawen the jeweler, committed suicide on Day Three: innocent
Cailín the match maker, mauled by werewolves on Night Four: innocent
Valier the gardener, planted and stoned in her garden on Day Four: werewolf

~ The Living ~

Diamond of the Battledore
Caranlondien the Sled-Team Driver
Roa Aoife the weaver
Dancing Spawn of Ungoliant the Baker
Kath the minstrel
Lommy the little girl who steals other children's candy
Glirdan with the giant crush on Kath
Sleepy Ranger the former wanderer
Kitanna the beloved of Eomer
Firefoot the artist
Alcarillo the old retired sea captain
Oddwen the filthy, insane street urchin who steals chickens
mormegil the retired mariner and current mayor
Feanor the shepherdess with a love of alliteration
Zali the seamstress and beloved of the phantom
Jenny Hallu the unmarried maiden & aunt
Lalaith the frivolous aunt and guardian of Oddwen
Eonwe the freeloading husband of Lhunardawen
Eomer the adventurer & lover of Kitanna
Nilpaurion the ne'er do well hubby of Dancing Spawn
Gurthang the stable-hand

littlemanpoet

05-20-2006, 03:59 PM

The evil wizard had lost yet another werewolf to lynching, but took the blow in stride and cursed yet another villager.

The good wizard scried a different villager who, it turned out, was not a werewolf, and already having a hunter, gifted this villager as seer. The new seer did not dream.

The hunter chose a villager to hunt.

The werewolves, now numbering four, chose two victims for the night, approved by the evil wizard.

Firefoot was the youngest of Nogrod and Diamond's three daughters, and the most artistic of the bunch. She was tomboyish even through her teens, but this did not stop a boring rich fop from being interested in her. Luckily for Diamond and Nogrod was this so, for no other man had shown interest. This fop's name was not important for our purposes, for he was often out of town, and was so during the events related here. Some wondered if said fop even planned to return, for the marriage date that had been set upon their engagement, had passed the previous summer, and he had stayed away. Diamond was enraged, but Firefoot seemed not to care, since the fool of a fop had not been her choice. She played her lute, wrote her lyrics, made up melodies, and lived blithely off the meagre proceeds that playing songs all morning in front of the town hall provided. Come noon each day she was done, and setting her lute and songbook and coin in her bedroom, made off into the nearby wild, hiking in the woods, walking along the breakers on the rocky shore, wading while looking for pretty stones, generally being on her own and pleased to be so all the day long. When night approached she would regrettfully hie to home to undergo the daily nag from mother who wanted her to try harder to get a man or at least reasonable employ. She would eat in silence, willing to endure this discomfort in return for the freedom to do as she had been doing for the last few years.

Diamond never turned her out of the house, however, for secretly she love her youngest daughter's freedom, and was glad the fop had not shown, and preferred that Firefoot remain happy and free rather than full of sorrow like her eldest sister. The last few days, however, Diamond had not nagged. There had been uncomfortable silence as one after the other of their family died, and Zali almost getting lynched into the bargain.

Nilpaurion Felagund had been named after an elf of great legend from the first age, "cave dweller". Which was odd because Nilpaurion hated dark, closed up places. His home was open to the air with many windows. He was proud of his son Gurthang for being picked by the Watchers to be the Good Wizard, and had been most willing to be his son's very first seer. He realized that he might have been a little offensive in his eagerness to support his heroic son, but all in all things were going rather well for his family. He just wished that his son had not said that his own mother, Spawn, was doomed to die, and was happy that prophecy was not part of the wizarding package. He rather liked having his wife next to him each night. (OOC: sorry for the brief narration; I was under the mistaken impression that a certain other player was getting killed this Night :rolleyes: and had to write this hastily.)

Two werewolves appeared in the bedroom of Firefoot and tore into her where she lay. They were vicious and cruel and such was their frenzy that she died in her sleep. One plunged its clawed hand deep into her chest and ripped out her heart.

Two werewolves leaped through one of the many bedroom windows in the Felagund house and attacked Nilpaurion Felagund. He woke up. He knew he was doomed. He tried calling for his son to save him, but found that his vocal chords had been ripped away, and that he could not take in air any longer. Feeling no pain in his excitement, he threw himself at the nearest werewolf with what would have been a roar of reviling, and tried to get his fingers in its eyes. He was unsuccessful. He did succeed in receiving a quick death, however. The werewolves pulled his head to one side from his shoulders, like a hinged lid, and reached down to his heart and pulled it out.

Diamond and Zali rose with the sun and went into the kitchen. Seeing each other, they seemed relieved; not seeing Firefoot, they opened the door to her room and saw (and smelled) blood staining Firefoot's bedclothes, so much blood that she had to be dead, so much blood that the mattress of hay was soaked clean through. A double wail escaped from Firefoot's bedroom.

Apparently Spawn had not been in the bedroom when the werewolves had attacked. It seemed that she must have been relieving herself in the middle of the night. Be that as it may, when she came back to bed, her husband was dead.

All the remaining villagers hurried to the watcher rock. There were three bodies, not two. Nilpaurion Felagund lay beneath the Watchers, his head almost ripped clean from his body. Nearby lay Firefoot, her body seeming more feasted skeleton than new corpse.

One more body lay beneath the Watcher rock. It appeared to have been given a sound drubbing with saucepans, frying pans, soup pans, and leather whips with ball bearings and sharp tacks woven in. The Watching Man held a heart that he lay in this body's chest. Before the eyes of all gathered, the body sewed and healed and lost all blemish. A star appeared on the man's forehead. He rose and looked about him in horror, and threw his hood over his head in token of honoring the dead. He glanced at the Watchers; the Lady pointed. The man walked away down the seashore where it is said he encountered Elven Mariners. (revenge taken mwahaha) :rolleyes:

~ The Tally ~ (8)

One evil wizard
The Good Wizard Gurthang
Four werewolves
One seer
One hunter

~ The Dead ~ (12)

Elempi, father of Diamond of the Battledore, killed on Night One
Loki the leech collector, lynched on Day One: innocent
The Saucepan Man the barkeep, killed on Night Two: innocent
Nogrod the retired jester, lynched on Day Two: werewolf
the phantom the loud, unpredictable, adventurer: hunter
Naria the servant who empties and cleans chamber pots: werewolf
Celuien the Healer and Cupper, lynched on Day Three: innocent
Lhunardawen the jeweler, committed suicide on Day Three: innocent
Cailín the match maker, mauled by werewolves on Night Four: innocent
Valier the gardener, planted and stoned in her garden on Day Four: werewolf
Firefoot the artist, frenziedly eaten on Night Five: innocent
Nilpaurion the ne'er do well hubby of Dancing Spawn, head almost ripped off by werewolves: innocent

~ The Living ~ (19)

Diamond of the Battledore
Caranlondien the Sled-Team Driver
Roa Aoife the weaver
Dancing Spawn of Ungoliant the Baker
Kath the minstrel
Lommy the little girl who steals other children's candy
Glirdan with the giant crush on Kath
Sleepy Ranger the former wanderer
Kitanna the beloved of Eomer
Alcarillo the old retired sea captain
Oddwen the filthy, insane street urchin who steals chickens
mormegil the retired mariner and current mayor
Feanor the shepherdess with a love of alliteration
Zali the seamstress and beloved of the phantom
Jenny Hallu the unmarried maiden & aunt
Lalaith the frivolous aunt and guardian of Oddwen
Eonwe the freeloading husband of Lhunardawen
Eomer the adventurer & lover of Kitanna
Gurthang the stable-hand and Good Wizard

Lalaith

05-20-2006, 04:15 PM

Another night without a seer-dream. Oh great. :rolleyes:

Well, I was expecting the wolves to do in Firefoot and Nilp with their two kills. I think we really need to find the Evil wizard today. Gurth, what ideas have you got?

Roa_Aoife

05-20-2006, 04:23 PM

Well, we can't just sit and wait for Gurthang to show- it could be a while, depending on his schedule. We have all of yesterday to discuss, and some good theories were shown. What do you think Lalaith?

After the analysis of Diamond, I've started to seriously suspect her. But have this problem where I start suspecting people I analyze (if I don't suspect them already), so I don't know if it's just that or if there were actual things worthy of suspicion. Thoughts?

Feanor of the Peredhil

05-20-2006, 04:24 PM

I echo Lalaith. Gurthang, anything important we should know today?

And if I may be allowed a jest (apart from my title) before we get down to business, I simply can't believe Eomer's still alive. It's gone past day one! Surely he must be evil.

Diamond18

05-20-2006, 04:24 PM

:( Nothing really surprising there, is it? But seriously, what is it with the carnage that's been visited on my family? :(

Also, note to self: never again underestimate Valier's capacity for evil and bluffing. Interesting to see that she and Nogrod both took more or less the same approach to being wolves -- they played their usual game but with a little too much aggression and less genuinosity (is that word?) in effect becoming parodies of their usual selves. Not that they didn't succeed in fooling some... but as they say, you can fool some of the people some of the time....

Anyway, I'll eat crow about being against the list since a werewolf was indeed on it. Sorry, poor headless Nilp and still-living Gurthang. Not that I don't stand by my posts, but okay, I guess my instincts about Valier were off and the feelings of offense were less than merited.

ToDay, I feel lost. The posting Kitanna and Zali did yesterDay after my analysis of them make them look less suspicious to me. So now I feel less confident about voting for either of them. Roa seems to be rather vindicated by Valier's death -- though I will not rule out the possibility that Valier was a sacrifice. People like Fea, Morm, and Eomer bear watching, but without having done any analysis on them I can't say why for sure.

So. Right. I'll be gone for a chunk of this evening but will probably be around for my usual midnight posting. And then tomorrow (oh you will all just love to hear this) I'll be able to hang around right up until the deadline. Get it? Hang? Deadline? Ha ha ha ha.

x-posted with Lal, Roa, and Fea

Gurthang

05-20-2006, 04:29 PM

Congratulations, village, you nailed another. Although, I wonder if it wasn't supposed to be that way. Still, a dead werewolf is a dead werewolf.

I am somewhat sad that Nilp was killed, although it was expected. Although, I have a Seer again at least.

Another night without a seer-dream. Oh great.
Sorry. Not sure if it was my fault or just unruly timing, but sorry anyway. :rolleyes:

Anyway, I am currently consulting my gifteds about toDay's list. I do agree though that the Evil Wizard needs to be found, and soon.

But we do not need to worry too much yet. We are still 14 (Good guys) against 5 (baddies).

Lalaith

05-20-2006, 04:31 PM

Ok, if you want proper sense from me you'll have to wait til (my) tomorrow. It's Saturday night after all...Eurovision, too...cheers!

If we just want wolves, I think we could get Night Four ones by going by the list I made yesterDay. If we want the EW, we'll have to dig deeper. I think most of us could put together a shortlist of possibles.
I'm still worried about you, Roa. Your track record is the best of any of us, you've either attacked, or been attacked by, wolves in the most ostentatious fashion, so that no-one could possibly suspect you.... you see what I mean?

Caranlondien

05-20-2006, 04:35 PM

Well, we lynched a wolf yesterDay, at least. But... we need those seer-dreams!

Valier's attack on Roa seems to me like the sort of thing an EW-Roa would tell her to do. So Roa is by no means cleared in my mind.

If Roa turns out to be the EW, I'll be looking at Diamond, merely because Roa is suspicious of her, and I think in general she's a bluffer.

I'm just trying to think ahead here since Gurthang's list toMorrow will be made before we have much of a chance to present arguments; so I'm thinking we should come up with if/then arguments. I'm fighting off a migraine, so this post might not be so coherent...

EDIT: cross-posted with the last few, not that it matters; and making the names bold

Roa_Aoife

05-20-2006, 04:36 PM

I'm still worried about you, Roa. Your track record is the best of any of us, you've either attacked, or been attacked by, wolves in the most ostentatious fashion, so that no-one could possibly suspect you.... you see what I mean?

I see exactly what you mean, and it makes me wonder if it's supposed to be that way. Frankly, after the whole Nogrod lynching, I expected to killed. The fact that I live makes me a tad nervous. I think my lorebooks tell me of a time a wolf bearing my name did something similar to a ranger by the name of Zali. It would be quite a kick to see my old trick pulled back on me. I feel so used.

Though I didn't realize my attack on Nogrod was ostentatious...

Diamond18

05-20-2006, 04:51 PM

Actually, if you want to know who worries me a bit, it's Lalaith. Why? Because I'd want her if I was the Evil Wizard. I want to analyze her when I have time later tonight.

What do you all think about when Valier was made a wolf? Do you think she was an original or turned? I think Nilp had her as turned on Night 4, didn't he? But this isn't fact. I think it's possible she was an original. She did, after all, vote Loki. Yes, yes, I'm hammering that poor old horse again. If anyone is inclined to listen to me, I want to point out that my early vote for Loki was mostly intended as an expression of displeasure, and I was somewhat surprised (though not shocked) that so many people followd my lead and killed him. So that's why I look to that list as suspicious -- the ol' bandwaggoning trick.

Roa_Aoife

05-20-2006, 04:52 PM

Valier's attack on Roa seems to me like the sort of thing an EW-Roa would tell her to do. So Roa is by no means cleared in my mind.

Actually, if I were the EW, I would have created a wolf on wolf scenario- if one gets lynched then the other looks good, no matter what. Naturally, that doesn't make me look much better...

Beside, Valier nearly did get me lynched yesterday, something that I would never want to risk if I were the EW. I like risks, but not risks that draw specific attention onto me when I'm trying to hide.

Edit: Seriously, no one posts for twenty minutes, and just as I post someone else does. This is a conspiracy, I tell you!

Roa_Aoife

05-20-2006, 04:59 PM

What do you all think about when Valier was made a wolf? Do you think she was an original or turned? I think Nilp had her as turned on Night 4, didn't he? But this isn't fact.

Her change in behavior makes it look like she was turned Night 3. That's just a theory though.

I think it's possible she was an original. She did, after all, vote Loki.

Eight people voted Loki, not all of them could have been wolves at the time.

If anyone is inclined to listen to me, I want to point out that my early vote for Loki was mostly intended as an expression of displeasure, and I was somewhat surprised (though not shocked) that so many people followd my lead and killed him.

Now now, voting for someone just because you don't like them is never a really good reason. In fact, it's one of the worst reasons givable. But then, did anyone give actually good reasons for lynching Loki?

Lalaith

05-20-2006, 05:00 PM

Still here...just about...
Why yes Diamond, I would have thought he would want me.
But he doesn't. *sniff* Mind you, I'd have thought he'd want you, too, even more.

Oh and Valier wouldn't be a Night Four wolf, she was under too much suspicion on Day Three. I think she's a Night Three, or maybe Night Two.

Diamond18

05-20-2006, 05:10 PM

I may be counting my nights wrong, Lal. And as for the EW wanting me, the phantom is the only person who wants me. I mean... *cough* the only person I remember saying he'd want me as a wolf. Oh wait, no, SpM said I'd be a likely wolf pick, as well. Eomer said it best, I thought, about me being a bad wolf pick. :rolleyes:

Roa, you just refuse to understand. When I quoted LMP's rules about civility to Loki his response boiled down to "I don't care, I'll do whatever I want." I didn't think we needed that kind of behavior. This wasn't "I don't like Loki so I'll kill him." It's "It's early Day 1 and I have no definite wolf candidate, so instead of throwing away my vote completely, I'll vote for the one person who I think is Trouble with a capital T."

And I've said all this a thousand different ways, but you apparently just don't care to understand my viewpoint. So. I can't think of another way to say it. *shrug*

And of course all 8 could not be wolves. But that's why a wolf or two would find it easy to hide in such a bandwagon.

mormegil

05-20-2006, 05:19 PM

Well I want to reiterate two things I've said in the past. Everybody make sure to 'wake up' so you don't miss the summons to be a seer (Read: Hit the Refresh button on occasion).

Valier seems to have been the wolf convert on the 3rd night as I fully suspected and cued in on her strange behavior. I'm glad to see her lynched thought essentially another night was wasted due to a lack of a seer. We have two chances as night of finding the EW and we are only using one consistently.

Gurthang any idea how long until you produce your 'list of doom'?

Gurthang

05-20-2006, 05:34 PM

Gurthang any idea how long until you produce your 'list of doom'?

I don't know. I would like to get a response from my Seer and my Hunter. Is there anyone who needs to vote extremely early?

I also want to know what people think about Azaelia. Her distinct non-list vote could be one of two things.

1. She's an innocent who really didn't suspect anyone on the list.

2. She's a wolf/EW hoping we'll think the above.

I don't know how many times yesterday people said that they thought Diamond and Roa were innocent because they didn't agree with the plan. Azaelia might have taken that as a green light that that would make her appear innocent.

mormegil

05-20-2006, 05:59 PM

Currently I'm a bit stumped, after Valier I'm not sure who to think about. I kind of reverted to tunnel vision on her and tried to keep an open mind but what I want to do is give my general impressions on people; this is going to be more feeling based and analytical.

Diamond--Talkative but Roa brought up good points about her and I think that she would be a good wolf choice, as far as EW goes I doubt it, she would be a fine EW but I see wolfishness in her behavior not EWness.

Caranlondien--I feel that she is suspcious yet quietly so. She doesn't over react to things and keeps cool. I don't think she should be faulted for that but the things that concerns me the most is her level of 'participation'. She's seems very noncommital but posts a lot so as to appear to be active and involved.

Roa Aoife--I can see why there is some suspicion swirling around her and the question needs to be asked--Is Valier the type to attempt a bold bluff? I'm not convinced of that she would. Has had some good analysis of other villagers.

Dancing Spawn of Ungoliant--She's cunning to say the least. I don't believe her guilty though, but admittedly she seems less insightful than normal with the exclusion of yesterday.

Kath--Always guilty no matter what (Read: Past experience) so she should die. But seriously she's not contributing as much as normal and that always gets me worried but I will refrain from any judgement on this and ask an independent third party to analyze her.

Lommy--I can envision her as guilty, but then again would Lommy have defended Valier is Lommy is guilty? She's talkative but not over analytical. Currently she'd go in the 'uncertain but watching pile'.

Glirdan--Far too little talk and I always fear that this could be a diversionary tactic. Of course he wouldn't be a wolf because he's never around...but then wouldn't that be just perfect?

Sleepy Ranger--Smae as Glirdan

Kitanna--Has had me extremely worried until yesterday. That could mean that she's had more time or that she was a night 4 wolf convert and is now putting on a good show of being innocent.

Alcarillo--He keeps coming back to my mind as guilty. I know many have written off the over reaction and role playing and think little of it but I disagree and think him a good initial EW pick for wolf but turned out to be far too over reactionary. He's one of my prime suspects today.

Oddwen--Her behavior is similar to Sleepy and Glirdan but she's been a bit more odd when she is present than the others. Still not too much to go on.

Feanor--I always think she is guilty too, just like Kath. She's nigh impossible to ever fully understand what she is thinking and is so mauderous that I have difficulty assessing her.

Zali--If a wolf a careless wolf, if innocent a careless innocent.

Jenny Hallu--My poor unwed daughter. I have the feeling that she could be an excellent wolf and good EW another 'uncertain pile'

Lalaith--Always cool and collected. Had some rule questions which always make me wonder if it's an attempt to throw us of her scent. Helpful but good at deception.

Eonwe--See Sleepy and Glirdan for an explination.

Eomer--Another that is always guilty in my mind (See: Fea and Kath) so I cannot do a objective analysis. I had some legitimate concerns about him and used them earlier but it was part of my ruse to get reaction. His responses to that made me feel him innocent.

There are 4 or 5 from whom I'd like to hear more (and others less :p ). I feel that we are getting to that stage when everybody need to be less quiet and give a couple of posts a day and ensure that you vote too.

Gurthang

05-20-2006, 06:07 PM

Okay, I have to go. I may be gone for some time. Here is the 'List of Doom' ( :p ) for toDay.

Alcarillo
Azaelia
Feanor
Kitanna

Analyze them, and also give thought to who you would like to get a shot at tomorrow. Someone asked about them, and yes I have given thought to our quieter villagers, but I do not know what to do about them... yet. They will be dealt with, I can assure you.

I will be here for only fragments for the rest of the Day. I will try to answer questions and analyze the candidates as best I can.

Feanor of the Peredhil

05-20-2006, 06:11 PM

Morm... what does mauderous mean?

And I totally agree about tunnel vision and not know what to do next, exactly. This hasn't been the best game for me and I'm at a bit of a loss.

I kind of don't blame you if you kill me (I see I'm on the hit list for the day)... but it's a bad idea. I'm innocent and quite frankly astounded I haven't been dreamt of, but as a village, we can't afford to make any mistakes.

mormegil

05-20-2006, 06:34 PM

It's a made up word with the root from maunder (http://dictionary.reference.com/search?q=maunder).

Gurthang it's a good list and I would tend to choose Alcarillo who I will not analyze as I've been keeping tabs on him but perhaps I will look at Fea or Zali as Kitanna doesn't strike me as guilty currently.

Oddwen

05-20-2006, 07:33 PM

I didn't mean to miss yesterday. I thought I had a good couple of hours after work, and then *boom!* it's a Night!

Kudos to Gurthang - nice to see you.

The current list of Dooooom -

I'm most inclined to think that Zali is innocent. I think most of the suspicion around her is due to her early vote for Eomer two days ago, which seemed explained sufficiently to me.

The pleading yesterday was a bit much though.

She's nigh impossible to ever fully understand what she is thinking and is so mauderous that I have difficulty assessing her.
It's a made up word with the root from maunder (http://dictionary.reference.com/search?q=maunder).
Do you really like that word, or is it a broad hint?

Meh. I'm going to analize.

mormegil

05-20-2006, 07:40 PM

Do you really like that word, or is it a broad hint?

I don't quite follow how this could be a hint but I actual enjoy the word and I believe it is fitting of Fea.

Eonwe

05-20-2006, 07:59 PM

Eonwe--See Sleepy and Glirdan for an explination.

Glirdan--Far too little talk and I always fear that this could be a diversionary tactic. Of course he wouldn't be a wolf because he's never around...but then wouldn't that be just perfect?

Yeah, about that. A surprise visit from the Grandparents has somewhat certailed my Werewolfing activities.

However, I am doing my best to struggle through the thread, and keep abreast of the action.

Speaking of which, Gurthang the Good Wizard? This makes for alot more analazatoin work.

Which I'd best be doing.

P.S. RIP Nilp

Roa_Aoife

05-20-2006, 08:30 PM

Hm, interesting list....

As I said before, Alcarillo and Zali don't look particularly suspicious to me. The only cases against them so far seem kind of weak. Kitanna's case yesterday (courtesy Diamond, who I'm not totally inclined to trust at the moment) doesn't make her look terribly suspicious either. As for Fea- I just don't get her. She still hasn't answered me about her continual votes for me. I don't know if she has failed to notice, or if she's just trying to dodge the question, but it's confusing. I'd like someone else to analyze to analyze her, as I don't trust myself to be wholly objective.

mormegil

05-20-2006, 09:37 PM

Post 104 (http://www.forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=467485&postcount=104)

Basically, she says that it's not fair that we single people as as being either unlikely or likely to be a gifted/wolf pick and she might be more likely because the GW might want an unlikely pick. It's a fairly innocuous first post.

Post 113 (http://www.forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=467498&postcount=113)

Clarification on time zones and how much time she has left.

Post 196 (http://www.forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=467615&postcount=196)

Okay this post really stands out to me as opposed to the previous posts. Here she states categorically that finding the EW is the most important. Then states that Loki is acting a bit odd but she doesn't think he's the EW. Goes on to give herself an escape route for her 'band wagon' vote saying that she doesn't like band wagons but thinks that Loki is guilty herself. This is the first of multiple escape routes that she leaves herself. Also if you don't think he's the EW but you think it most important to find the EW why not give us your idea of who the EW is?

Post 227 (http://www.forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=467791&postcount=227)

Another fairly odd post. Laments her decision to vote Loki as hers was the deciding vote. I'm never keen on people being overly sad about their vote choice, if you believe him guilty you believe him guilty. Then she talks about SpM being chosen to be killed. This could be taken either way so I'll leave it alone.

Post 349 (http://www.forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=468009&postcount=349)

Again apologizes for voting on the band wagon and gives her explination that her main suspects coincide with the top lynch candidate. She thinks Alcarillo's over defensiveness is proof that he's innocent because she acts the same way when innocent. Then give a great line of asking forgiveness of voting for Nogrod if he's innocent.

Post 382 (http://www.forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=468240&postcount=382)

Has some in character bemoaning of the phantom's death but then turns around and now she suspects Alcarillo of his in character over reaction. In her cross post comment she is beginning to suspect Eomer as well. It seems that she is either extremely easily influenced or intentionally influenced because as a wolf it's easier to blend in with the current theory than invent you own. She's beginning to look bad to me at this point.

Post 387 (http://www.forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=468247&postcount=387)

This is the notorious post that has already been analyzed ad nauseum and in real time this was the one that made me suspect her the most and now it only fortifies my feeling. Please reread and notice the escape route given and apology. It is note worthy to remember that Nilp found this extremely odd as well in this post. (http://www.forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=468248&postcount=388)

Post 698 (http://www.forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=468922&postcount=698)

She immediately informs us that this will be a defense and states that "This goes back a bit, I know, but I thought I ought to set up a defence." After that she goes on to say that Alcarillo's in character stuff wasn't helpful, which I agree, but I also think Zali's has been a bit much and unhelpful also. I also get the impression that she feels a lot of pressure and is worried about things...both good signs of being a wolf.

Post 699 (http://www.forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=468924&postcount=699)

Post immediately after the last and states that she's innocent. Goes on to describe why she wouldn't be the worst lynch case but we could do better.

Post 700 (http://www.forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=468925&postcount=700)

A triple post telling us to not waste our votes on her because she is not the EW and it has to be obvious that she isn't. I would agree on that point but I don't agree that she's not a wolf.

Post 711 (http://www.forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=468972&postcount=711)

Quotes Caran quoting me and defends herself on the charge of voting for the top candidate. She says she learned that lesson but did it because she found them suspicious. She changes her pattern of voting and votes for Alcarillo against the 'list of doom' and thinks that we shouldn't forget him. I think this is a good thing too and could speak to her favor in that she has legitimate concerns over him and wants us to remember him or that she wants to appear such. I cannot determine how it's meant but good advice either way.

That's all but I think her post analysis paints a decent picture that she could be guilty, but there are a couple of points upon which she seems to be innocent.

This takes a long time. I have no idea how I will do this for somebody who posts more frequently.

Feanor of the Peredhil

05-20-2006, 09:54 PM

As for Fea- I just don't get her. She still hasn't answered me about her continual votes for me. I don't know if she has failed to notice, or if she's just trying to dodge the question, but it's confusing.
Dodging artfully, as it were. I have my reasons for my votes and accusations, and they are good enough as far as reasons go, but perhaps it would be better for me to have gone the way of Lhuna and pulled out to accomodate life. Quite frankly, I'd rather leave my reasons for accusing and voting down to something as simple as that I was forced to vote quickly and without as much deliberation as I'd have liked at every occasion. I had to choose somebody and my day one suspicion of a Loki wolf chosen by a Roa wizard had not abated.

Right now I have no idea at all for whom to vote. If I have enough people ask me, heck, I'll vote for myself to make life easier all the way around.

Caranlondien

05-20-2006, 10:14 PM

A good list on Gurthang's part. Good because I can see any of the choices being wolves, but also bad because I can see any of the choices being wolves. :rolleyes: Hey, maybe they're all wolves! :D

Due to a nasty headache, I'm a bit out of it right now, and shall be heading off to sleep. My initial thoughts concerning the members of The List:

Alcarillo - I haven't found him that suspicious so far, but he came under a great deal of suspicion and then seemed to be forgotten, so I'd see him as a good recent werewolf choice.

Azaelia - She's been on my radar (and everyone else's, for the most part) for a while now. Here's something that struck me, too:
Also if you don't think he's the EW but you think it most important to find the EW why not give us your idea of who the EW is?

Feanor - I have nothing in my lorebooks on Feanor, and I don't have much of a gut feeling about her, so I'll have to go back and look at her posts when I wake up.

Kitanna - She was looking wolvish before, but yesterDay's posts from her have placated me. She seems genuine. Of course, she may have been turned last Night. Especially since she seemed, like Alcarillo, to have gotten through the period of intense suspicion early on.

I'd also like us to take a good look at morm. He's the sort who manages to post substantial arguments that influence the village and at the same time fly under the radar. Just thinking ahead ;)

Gurthang

05-20-2006, 10:15 PM

Fea, your continual confession of not having the time to be the Evil Wizard makes me nervous. It seems to be slightly overstated. Could be a valid reason, but I am nervous none the less. That said, I doubt I will vote for you, but I've heard others mention your name, and thought I'd see how the votes play out with you in the mix. Oh, and only vote for yourself if you're a wolf or the EW, okay? :D (Yeah, like that'll work. :rolleyes: )

I agree with morm about Azaelia. I will likely vote for her toDay. She seems overly eager to defend herself against what people might accuse her of. Her precautionary defensiveness, if you will. I also think that her 'throw away vote' from yesterday was too blatant to be an innocent defiance. It really looks like she's trying to do something that a wolf just would not do, and therefore look innocent. I'll read through her posts before voting.

I personally have no suspicion of Kitanna. I saw her name pop up a few times. I'll probably also glance at her posts before voting.

Alcarillo; I was suspicious of him a couple days ago, and I still am slightly, but I have people above him on my suspect list.

Anyway, I'll see how it all plays out. I probably won't vote until close to the deadline. But now I need to sleep. Be back in the morning.

Kitanna

05-20-2006, 10:56 PM

I don't have as much time as I did yesterday to go over the posts of the two on Gurthang's list. (excluding myself and Zali, since I already did her) but I will say I feel less suspicious of Zali today. After her defense of herself not being the EW, I think she may have been truthful about that. Her posts have been helpful, but few and far between and she has said she has various time issues which causes me to believe she is too busy to be the EW. She could still be a wolf, but I'm not as confindent as I was the other day about her being the EW.

As for Fea, well, I'll have to read over her posts before Day ends, hopefully I'll get the chance.

And Alcarillo, well I have suspicions of him, but I don't know if it's enough for me to vote for him.

Kitanna

05-20-2006, 11:22 PM

Ok I lied, I decided I couldn't sleep until I at least started to look at Fea and Alcarillo:
DAY ONE
In Alcarillo's first two posts the only real help he gave outside of in character comments was:
Alcarillo=
It would be much harder on us if we lynch the Good Wizard (no new gifteds, for one thing), so I would focus primarily on hunting down the Evil Wizard to stop the cursings.
He comments on Gurthang's Day one plan of finding one or both wizards. Up until this point Alcarillo has kept his comments in character.
Fea=
And there are some that you will never understand regardless of anything pertaining to anything else. Mormegil, for instance: if he's a wolf, we're screwed; we'll never know... it would be mere whim that would ever have us catch the dear.

See what I mean? If you kill the players that you are completely uncertain that you'll ever be able to nail down in any situation, you'll simplify your own life.
I feel Fea falls into her own catergory of villagers you'll never really know.
Alcarillo=
Well, I agree with my wife when she says she thinks some of these people would be chosen as Gifteds. If I were the GW, I would choose some of these villagers to be Gifteds, because they tend to last a while into the game, whether by being clever or by flying under the radar. True that that's also great when playing a wolf, but I wouldn't lynch these folks yet (especially not myself!).

Let's try to root out the EW first before he focus on the wolves. I thought I'd like to remind people of these criteria Feanor came up with:
Alcarillo just sort of jumps on what others have brought up before him. It's easy to hide behind innocents by latching onto their ideas. But given the fact this was posted on Day One, I can't really say how I feel about Alcarillo doing this.
Alcarillo=
As to whom I am suspicious of, I have to say the Saucepan Man. He's been making all of these lists about potential werewolves. Maybe he's tryin' to throw us off the track of the EW. I dunno. And look at that EW criteria above! The Saucepan Man is a non-student, a very experienced player (the sort who would volunteer for a job as the wizard), and lives in a nice time-zone. Couldn't he be the EW?
That Night SpM turned up dead. This attack from Alcarillo worries me. It makes me doubt his guilt since SpM was killed. I'm not so sure I feel EW Alcarillo would be so bold.

DAY TWO
Alcarillo=
Whatever people would say, there'd certainly be plenty of discussion about me. Why on earth would I want this attention?! You people know my ancestors' methods of survival: laying low, keeping quiet. This doesn't fit with me killing Saucie. I'm not a werewolf, and if I were, I wouldn't be as dumb as killing Saucie.
I may be mistaken (19 pages, so much confusion) but Alcarillo has been laying low for a while...

*pounds face into desk* My brain and eyes hurt, so I'm really going to go off to bed, since I stopped paying attention to what I was writing and while back. I'll just have to come back and finish this later.

Diamond18

05-20-2006, 11:53 PM

Earlier I said I intended to analyze Lalaith tonight, but now I wonder if I'd just be wasting my time since she is not on the List of Doom™ and will not be a lynch candidate toDay.

And yes, this is somewhat motivated by this:

Roa_Aoife 50
Diamond18 50
Valier 49
Lalaith 45

Fourth top poster of the game, there. The thing that worries me is that I still feel like she's been under the radar -- my radar anyway, since I look at that in surprise and can say it doesn't feel like I've read 45 Lalaith posts. I can only remember her Day 1 vote off the top of my head. Just don't forget about her....

So, as to who is on the list:

Alcarillo -- Maybe I'll do one, but I'm not thinking there's really all that much to analyze.

Azaelia -- Has been analyzed by me and Morm (and possibly others?) so I feel she has been sufficiently analyzed for the time being.

Feanor -- Mmm... 30 posts. If I do an analysis I will have to fortify myself with something unhealthy to eat or drink.

Kitanna -- I already analyzed her, and all her posts since my analysis have only served to lessen my suspicion. Either she's really, really devastatingly good at being a wolf, or she's innocent. Or she was just turned.

At any rate, it looks to me like I'll be analyzing Fea. Wish me luck. :p

mormegil

05-21-2006, 01:04 AM

I'm not certain how much time I'll have until the dead line comes so I will vote with my gut. I analyzed Zali and think her likely to be guilty. Fea could very well be guilty. Kitanna I'm fairly convinced is currently innocent. But Alcarillo has been nagging me for a while now and I will go for him.

++Alcarillo

Lalaith

05-21-2006, 01:24 AM

My problem with the list is that there's no-one on it apart from Fea that I think could be the EW.
Well, still lots of time to discuss and vote later...

dancing spawn of ungoliant

05-21-2006, 02:35 AM

Valier's attack on Roa seems to me like the sort of thing an EW-Roa would tell her to do. So Roa is by no means cleared in my mind.That's something I was thinking about, too. About it being too risky for Roa, that might be true, but if Roa was the EW and we had tried to lynch her, the GW couldn't have challenged her right away, she would probably have got 5 Wolves the next Day which is a pretty good pack. Besides, yesterDay there were four Wolves. If the Wolves knew the EW's identity (I'm somewhat doubtful about that, though) there would have been three Wolf votes for saving Roa.

I'm still wary of Caran, too. She seems unnaturally careful with her statements.

I agree with Lalaith that the only EWish person on toDays Death List is Fea. It, however, doesn't mean that we shouldn't analyse everyone on or off the List if we just have time.

More later.

ps. Sorry for this, but I can't resist...It's Saturday night after all...Eurovision, too...cheers!
Hehe. :cool: ;) :D

Diamond18

05-21-2006, 03:18 AM

Fea Fea Bo-Bea Bonana-Fana-Fo-Fea

#22 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=467302&postcount=22)

Checking in, has nothing further to say.

#79 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=467425&postcount=79)

Nothing much screams evil about this post... obviously I’m not going to recap it, you have the link. But she talks about plans for lynching and wizard hunting.

#83 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=467436&postcount=83)

Here she continues the same line of thought, clarifying it. Seems to think it’ll get her lynched, which I find somewhat odd, actually, since it’s no more controversial than any other plan I’ve seen discussed.

#85 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=467439&postcount=85)

More on the same lines.

#87 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=467442&postcount=87)

Ditto.

#88 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=467444&postcount=88)

Ditto.

#96 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=467467&postcount=96)

Talks a bit about the possibilities of who could and could not be the wizard, based on RL. Doesn’t give any names, but reminds us about students and the like who won’t have time to be wizards. This could be construed as her directing wizard suspicion away from herself, as at that point she had been relatively quiet and cited RL reasons for not participating as much early on. Or, she could just be stating a perfectly reasonable theory. It’s rather hard to say, but I am leaning toward the latter, just because I haven’t seen much else that can be called wolfish or wizardly from her.

#101 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=467479&postcount=101)

Banter.

#135 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=467533&postcount=135)

Somewhat wearied sounding response to Eomer about wizards... I found it a bit odd since at this point at least she has’t come up with the most stupendous plan for finding wizards -- it does seem like she’s mostly talked about what we “should” be doing without much follow through.

#141 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=467540&postcount=141)

Short reply about the phantom....

#170 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=467575&postcount=170)

A vote for Loki with interesting reasons... but, I can’t say I fault them. So this isn’t pinging me as particularly wolfish, more as her honestly having “nobody better to attack right now.” Unless she’s just copying my reason for voting, but, haha, I think I flatter myself in that respect.

#226 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=467790&postcount=226)

Mainly replies to people, without a specific theme... but she does again stress the need to find the Evil Wizard. Not raising any of my suspicions, which almost makes me want to kick myself, since I’m generally paranoid and not finding someone suspicious is just wrong. This is reverse suspicion psychology, by the way -- I can’t find anything suspicious about these comments ergo I find them suspicious. Ha.

#230 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=467803&postcount=230)

Banter.

#282 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=467921&postcount=282)

More talking about the EW -- gee, and Morm thought Eomer was the one obsessed :) -- and denies that she meant to discount herself when she talked about the wizard not being a student. This is first post that she really talks about people she’s suspicious of. She votes Roa, citing the fact that she’s fascinated by Roa’s earlier defense of Loki and suspicion about her reasons. (Roa, of course, continues to not be able to understand this, as she cannot understand anything I say that has anything to do with Loki, either.)

#285 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=467925&postcount=285)

Defends her reasoning to Lommy.

#286 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=467926&postcount=286)

Another response, much the same, to Sleepy.

#384 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=468243&postcount=384)

Kind of a Zali-esque post, this one....

#435 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=468352&postcount=435)

Kind of a rushed post... so really, what can I say about it, besides that it feels rushed?

#442 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=468367&postcount=442)

Arrgh... is it Fea’s posts or the fact that it’s 3:30 in the morning that’s making it hard for me to form an opinion on them either way? This one is a lot of responses, more explaining of the usual things.

#445 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=468370&postcount=445)

Response to me about her votes... I get the reasoning, so....

#455 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=468389&postcount=455)

Nothing much to comment on here, either. This is getting seriously redundant, isn’t it? Each individual posts doesn’t ping anything in me, but when I look up at my analysis and see non-conclusion after non-conclusion, I get worried. Fea is... slippery.

#459 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=468393&postcount=459)

Response to Jenny, denies that banter held anything serious.

#490 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=468449&postcount=490)

A vote for Roa, same reasons as previous day.

#555 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=468671&postcount=555)

More talk about the EW and how much we need to find him, and makes a rather odd comment about the EW protecting the GW.

#564 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=468683&postcount=564)

Well, she said she had a mind numbing headache that was blocking all rational thought, so.... She keeps promising an evaluation, have we ever gotten it? I don’t think so.

#626 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=468758&postcount=626)

I have to admit, this continued voting for Roa does seem a bit odd, now that it’s the third time in a row. I can see her reasoning for finding Roa suspicious, but that she holds onto it day after day, while there are a lot of other suspicious characters running around, does feel off.

#659 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=468835&postcount=659)

Gives thoughts on Eomer and morm. But mostly just talks about her RL situation and such.

Question: Does Fea usually dwell so much on her RL? Nearly every post contains references to what she’s doing, did, and will be doing in RL. If this is usual for Fea, okay, but if not, I find it somewhat odd that when she’s rushed for time she spends much of her posts telling us how little time she has.

#719 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=469137&postcount=719)

Short post, nothing much to say about it. (What a surprise, eh?)

#734 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=469165&postcount=734)

Fea seems very forgiving about being killed. This could speak well for her innocence.

#741 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=469188&postcount=741)

Alright, last post, I think I’ll just skip ahead to my final summary:

In summary: Fea could be one of two things:

(A) Innocent, and just as she has said countless times, with a very active RL and not having enough time to spend on analysis and the like. She’s been helpful when she can, and there’s nothing particularly fishy in her banter.

(B) She’s wonderfully, wickedly, stupendously evil and duplicitous. She’s slippery as an eel, and every spare line is carefully calculated, even the most innocuous of banter. She has all the time in the world, and all this about headaches is a ruse, she’s laughing her socks off at all of us right now. Like this: Bwahahahahahaha!

So, what does Diamond believe? I’m leaning (A). Honestly, if Fea is as preternaturally wicked as option (B) I feel like laying down and letting her maul me to death. Right now.

Oh, and as a “bonus” for all you eager beavers out there, I can already tell you everything that Roa will say about this post. It’ll be a mix of “nonsense,” “clutter,” “in essence, saying nothing,” and “well, duh.”

That’s three villager profiles for the price of one, my friends!

And I’m so tired I’m past being tired, so I may hang around a little longer before passing out. Or not.