WW LXXV: It's Always Tea Time Here [Archive] - Page 3 - The Barrow-Downs Discussion Forum

Aganzir

04-12-2010, 02:25 PM

Hi sorry I'm here only now, it took me about two hours longer to get home than I expected... I doubt I'll have time for everything I wanted to do but ah here we go, back to yesterday.

I find it very unlikely Mira and Zil are wolves together. I doubt wolves would vote each other so early the way Zil voted Mira (mostly based on my suspicions), and now they're apparently suspecting each other. I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if one was a wolf though.

In theory, the fact that winty got confused about sally's gender suggests he's innocent. But then, the nickname sally is rather feminine...

Ok, I admit, my first vote was a newbie mistake; I have not played this game online before, and I did not want to admit my mistake (I hate being wrong, Lottie can attest to that.), which was my reason for saying that about Brinn.
Alright, I buy that for now... But that's not to say you're on my innocent list. Because I can't tell if you really did that, or if you first said something accidentally that you had heard from your fellows and are now trying to fix it.

That was really me floundering for something to contribute than anything else.
Well, it was a rather suspicious contribution.

The push to lynch Lottie looked foul to me because I didn't think she looked evil, and it had all the hallmarks of a wolvish attempt to railroad an innocent.
Yeah but also innocents can suspect innocents. And I still fail to see why the votes of not very suspicious people make for a suspicious bandwagon. To me it looks more like you said it was suspicious for the sake of contributing something... And sometimes wolves try to save innocents (or disapprove of those voting for a certain innocents) to make themselves look better.

A threat? No. But more evidence to point toward your lupinity, my dear, if you start trying to use that as a reason so-and-so is evil.
I get the feeling you're threatening me with suspicion if I don't drop the retraction issue, darling. What's the point of saying it until I've done it? You could've waited and seen if I had actually started doing it, and only then told me it was suspicious.

I haven't had and will most likely not have time to go through Glirdan and his actions properly, but I don't think his arguments look wolfish. However he hasn't made me feel very strongly that he's innocent, either, and I agree with people who say his death would offer us insights.

Hmm I wonder if a Shastawolf had told Lottie to take off her wolf-coloured glasses... It's possible if either (or both) Glirdan or Greenie is a wolf, I suppose (just to divert her attention somewhere else, even at the risk she started suspecting another wolf). I don't know.
Okay Shasta's later post (#340) looks innocentish.

Grrr we've reached day 3 which is always a turning point for me: either I get a grip of the game or start having second thoughts about everyone. This time it's the latter.

A wolf team of winty and Mira doesn't seem plausible, either. She voted for him yesterday, saying she thinks there might be wolfish coaching going on (or then he's just a newbie). It just doesn't sound likely that she would've done that if both were wolves.

Okay after Glirdy's post #403 I'm certainly not going to vote for him. I think he looks quite innocent there, plus he brings forward Mira and winty, both of whom I have been wondering about. If he's a wolf, I find it unlikely they are, or the other way round.
And Inzil seems to totally disagree with me about that post.

My reaction was lesser? What did you expect, that I'd explode with outrage?
No, it's hard to explain... I don't know if I expected a different reaction or if I just found your reaction, dunno, odd, but it just caught my eye. I can try to explain it better when I have more time (currently all I want is to get through yesterday, vote and go to sleep).
And yup if you are fellows, I'm certain you would've instructed him the previous night. However I don't want to underestimate you, either. Why not do it twice if the second time might make you look more innocent?

CONCLUSION (based mostly on things posted after I disappeared yesterday)

Innocent
-Lottie
-Lommy. Haven't changed my mind about her.
-Legate; if he's a wolf, it would benefit him more, if not to encourage, at least to not discourage Lottie's suspicion of me. Plus his posting is reasonable.
-Nienna; see Legate.
-Greenie; I think she looks innocentish and I agree with her a lot.

Guilty
-Zil/Mira
-winty/Mira

No definite opinion about anyone else.

I'm most likely going to vote for Inzil because I'm more interested in his role than Glirdy's. And will do it in, dunno, half an hour I hope.

Morsul the Dark

04-12-2010, 02:35 PM

Only here for a minute I voted Early because I keep colliding badly with the times of the game I'm usually free all night phase and have maybe an hour or so during the day normally at the beginning.

"It" means going with my gut. Also like to point out I still have me retractable. If I didn't I might not have voted at all This way If I see something I can change... Hasn't happened yet. I'm 95% sure of this vote. I really Really Can figure out any other way Sally's vote and cry to Nienna makes sense.

Lastly I'm rushing this post... To the person who said they'd eat their hat if Nienna and I were Pack mates Don't worry your Hat shall remain in tact.

See you all tomorrow(Maybe)

skip spence

04-12-2010, 02:39 PM

Nogrod

04-12-2010, 02:40 PM

(~~~) *grin appearing*

Finally back. And greetings from the admin thread. It seems we have a D3-syndrome with a host of people telling their part-taking will be minimal or null...

Back with you in a moment.

(~~~) *grin vanishing*

Aganzir

04-12-2010, 02:44 PM

If it's timing was how it was (as stated by Nogrod, when she gave his vote to him), and if Glirdan is a Wolf, then that would be really a logical way to vote for a Wolf
Yeah its timing was as stated by Nog, but it would've been later if my net hadn't died. And as I said I voted Inzil because I suspected him the most. I was pretty sure sally would die, and trust me if I had been a wolf with her, you know which bandwagon my vote would've ended up in.

She seems to be going her own way a lot and basically avoiding getting into the "pot"
To be honest I have a hard time seeing why people are so keen on certain issues. :p

I don't quite get Green's Nog suspicion.

Skippy it's usually no use analysing what a wolf has posted when she already knows she's in trouble. They can split their fellows between different categories in any way whatsoever and will do their best to confuse us and make us waste time speculating on what they meant.

Aganzir

04-12-2010, 02:48 PM

Inzil is coming into the discussion I see. Interesting, but I have one problem with the idea. Why would a wolfish Inzil stick out his neck in what you in retrospect would call a desperate attempt to save what he knows to be a pack-mate? It seems too clumsy almost.
Glirdan could be his fellow, or it could be a bluff (no wolf would try to save his fellow like that), or he might have believed there was still a chance to lynch Glirdan instead of sally. I don't know and as long as I don't know, he's troubling me.

skip spence

04-12-2010, 02:53 PM

Skippy it's usually no use analysing what a wolf has posted when she already knows she's in trouble. They can split their fellows between different categories in any way whatsoever and will do their best to confuse us and make us waste time speculating on what they meant.
Maybe that's so. But my point was, at this point on 2 votes, with other ones on 1 I believe, Sally isn't that threatened. Still, she must think her chances of escape are quite good. Quickly it worsened for her and then she would be thinking mostly of damage-control, but at this early stage her main priority would still be escape I think. Not putting another wolf up for the gallows.

Aganzir

04-12-2010, 02:54 PM

Hmm I wonder why the wolves didn't kill Lottie last night. Did they want to play it safe in case the ranger protected her, did they think she could help them to lynch innocents, or did they consider Izzy a more imminent threat? I have no time to think about this now and I know Izzy's death has been discussed to an extent but I just wanted to bring it up.

Aganzir

04-12-2010, 02:56 PM

Maybe that's so. But my point was, at this point on 2 votes, with other ones on 1 I believe, Sally isn't that threatened. Still, she must think her chances of escape are quite good. Quickly it worsened for her and then she would be thinking mostly of damage-control, but at this early stage her main priority would still be escape I think. Not putting another wolf up for the gallows.
True but quite a lot of people had expressed suspicion of her, if I remember correctly. Not sure if she believed she could survive, but I don't think she could be sure of it either... So yeah if you think you can find something from her posts, go ahead. I personally just think it's mostly useless.

skip spence

04-12-2010, 03:00 PM

Glirdan could be his fellow, or it could be a bluff (no wolf would try to save his fellow like that), or he might have believed there was still a chance to lynch Glirdan instead of sally. I don't know and as long as I don't know, he's troubling me.
Yeah but we never know, do we? Of course, it could be anything. It could be a double, triple, quadruple- bluff. But imo, a simpler explanation is generally more likely. But I've had my doubts about Inzil too. If I only could remember what they were...;)

Nogrod

04-12-2010, 03:05 PM

(~~~) *grin appearing*

I'll just end up my previous task as I had to run off from the computer the last time...

So Nienna gave the decisive vote to Sally. Now if Glirdan is innocent that looks quite good (which doeasn't mean Nienna couldn't have done it as a wolf) but if Glirdy is a wolf it tells us nothing.

So. I'm not going to put those thoughts into any systematic order as there are too many questionmarks.

But in the light of them I do find it interesting that Skip comes so powerfully to defend Glirdan. For it surely is true that if Glirdan is innocent, then the Glirdy voters would hate to see him dead as that would reveal his innocence and point the light straight towards them as those who might have tried to save Sally.

The problem here of course would be that if a wolf defends an innocent should we lynch the innocent to get to the bottom of the matter - or try the one stepping up for the other as they both could be innocents - or if an innocent defends a wolf... drat, this is complicated. And just becasue of that, fun. :)

(~~~) *grin vanishing*

Aganzir

04-12-2010, 03:05 PM

I don't think I'm going to change my mind so I might as well vote.

++Inziladun

Simply because I suspect him the most so far, and I want to know his role in order to know which way my suspicions should proceed.

Skippy we never know until we know his role, and that's what I'm aiming at. :p

I'll go get something to eat and may still check in before going to sleep (or before going to find murderers that currently interest me more than ours; I'm talking about when Mikael Blomkvist och Lisbeth Salander löser gåtan Harriet, for those who know. ;)) but if not, good night bunnies. :p

Inziladun

04-12-2010, 03:09 PM

With Inzil it's again a bit different. First of all it must be noted that Inzil votes in a situation where one could actually count the votes to come and see the possibility of Glirdan being actually lynched over Sally. So in case of Glirdy being innocent I'd think that vote especially incriminating for Zil. But it would be quite a nice move also in the case Glirdy is a wolf as at that point he could also speculate with the slimness of the chances of getting Glirdy lynched and thus look better later as an independent thinker who gets it right.

So, regardless of Glirdan's alignment, I'm suspicious. Thanks, Nog. :rolleyes:

Otherwise, I don't have particularly specific reasons to suspect Glirdan (as I didn't have earlier) other than the things implied toDay, as I have also mentioned earlier toDay, possible co-packing with sally and all that. If it wasn't for this, I thing I actually wouldn't be suspecting him at all - so now I am not really thinking about voting him toDay, but somebody else.

This from the one who took me to task for not originally entertaining the idea that Sally's last words about Glirdan were potentially wolf on wolf.

Okay, actually it seems really many things depend on whether Glirdan is innocent or not.

Yet you voted for me.

I'd prefer voting Glirdan or Nogrod toDay. Glirdan's death, as has been mentioned, would shed light to many things, and his interactions with Sally were very fishy. Nogrod's interactions with Sally looked bad too, and I don't like how he's been slipping under pretty much everyone's radar, being nice and invisible yet contributing. I could also vote Shasta or Inzil, but would prefer one of the earlier two.

Your suspicions of Nog are rather vague, are they not?

Bed-time! I've been flip-flopping on whether to vote Nog or Glirdy, and decided to go for

highlight]++ Nogrod[/highlight]

Now I'm not sure if this is a throwaway, I suppose one could see it as such, but I just feel I should stir the pot a bit. I find Nogrod very suspicious, he's being too agreeable and nudging things from the background, and his interactions with Sally seemed quite wolf-on-wolf to me.

I won't be disappointed if Glirdy gets lynched. Unless he's an innocent, of course. That said, good night babes!

This did seem to come out of left field. Do you really think Nog is the best candidate? This looks like a convenient way to keep your hands clean, as Shasta said.

x/d with all since 509

Shastanis Althreduin

04-12-2010, 03:24 PM

This seems like a rather sudden bandwagon on Inziladun (or I'm just dense and didn't see it coming, which is quite possible currently. :p)

I think my next task is to go look at everyone who voted Inzil to see why.

Nogrod

04-12-2010, 03:31 PM

(~~~) *grin appearing*

I don't quite get Green's Nog suspicion.She oftentimes wants to be original... like yesterDay with Shasta (she voted Lottie as third on D1 but she did make a number out of her poor concentration and general bad feeling aobut it :)). So maybe she just read my comments on Sally in some idiosyncratic fashion. That is interesting thing though: with some of her "analysis" I agreed quite readily and with others I was almost of the opposite opinion. Well that just tells one how we can interpret things differently.

Also I have been a little less in the frontline this time around to be sure (I have been both busy and on D2 over-tired) and maybe that has raised her suspicions... I mean in the end she has not played that many games with me.

Be what it may, I don't find her especially wolvish either.

Her take on Glirdy raises an eyebrow though. She nicely said she suspected him already earlier but now as more and more people have started to think that maybe Glirdy is not that obviously the lynchee of toDay (I mean that general change of mood - if there was one that will last to the end of the Day - happened between her posts I think; so first they were sure Glirdy would go and she had prepared to look good but then she realised he could be saved?). That speculation arises from her add-on that she wouldn't think it bad if we lynched Glirdan; a nice double-move not advancing the lynch of a fellow but still maintaining one's own reputation if the mate got lynched.

But that's speculation that takes quite a lot for granted.

So, regardless of Glirdan's alignment, I'm suspicious. Thanks, Nog.Heh, right. But if it makes you feel better, you're not the only one... :p

Lottie might be innocent beoynd any reasonable doubt but she's the only one. Certain deaths might make a few people look quite innocent but even those would be with a "maybe" or "possibly". But to the most around here it actually fits that they are not cleared until proven innocent by their own death or the death of a revealed seer revealing them to us - or the game ending in our favour. :smokin:

(~~~) *grin vanishing*

skip spence

04-12-2010, 03:33 PM

Your suspicions of Nog are rather vague, are they not?
This did seem to come out of left field. Do you really think Nog is the best candidate? This looks like a convenient way to keep your hands clean, as Shasta said.

I agree. Greenie's voting has been very clean, always keeping her pretty little nose clean. That is suspicious.

As it is, I'm leaning towards voting Shasta. He too has been voting very clean, never getting in the centre of the attention. Very, as it may seem, sneeky. I've little liking for the possible Glirdan bandwagon, for reasons I've explained, and for him being away. It seems unfair to lynch a man unheard. Not really into Inzil for reasons also expressed. Have my doubts about Agan but will not vote on her tonight. Therefore Shasta I think...

10 min to think.

Shastanis Althreduin

04-12-2010, 03:36 PM

I agree. Greenie's voting has been very clean, always keeping her pretty little nose clean. That is suspicious.

As it is, I'm leaning towards voting Shasta. He too has been voting very clean, never getting in the centre of the attention. Very, as it may seem, sneeky. I've little liking for the possible Glirdan bandwagon, for reasons I've explained, and for him being away. It seems unfair to lynch a man unheard. Not really into Inzil for reasons also expressed. Have my doubts about Agan but will not vote on her tonight. Therefore Shasta I think...

10 min to think.

It's a little odd to be voting someone for seeming too innocent. Just saying. :p

In any case, I could have sworn there were more votes for Zil, but there are only two (:eek:) and, like Nerwen, I consider the third vote the start of the bandwagon. So it's not quite one, yet.

However, I did note something interesting...

Agan -

I don't think I'm going to change my mind so I might as well vote.

++Inziladun

Simply because I suspect him the most so far, and I want to know his role in order to know which way my suspicions should proceed.

Legate -

Okay, so simply put it looks like it finally came to voting my sort of long-term suspect,

++Inziladun

who is the person I suspect the most in general at the moment.

May not mean much, but I think it's funny that they said basically the exact same thing. :rolleyes:

Thinlómien

04-12-2010, 03:37 PM

Arg, no one's had a look at Izzy's or Sally's posts (in the case of Sally, Day1 posts) and I feel that'd be useful, but I don't have time to do it now because I've used all my day seeing (three different) friends (separately) instead of playing ww and it's midnight and I have to wake up at 9 so I'd like to go to sleep in an hour...

Anyway, at this point, I'm pretty sure I'm going to vote Glirdan. He's my top suspect atm and his death would reveal things, and once he's dead he won't at least be bugging me anymore.

Comments...

Skip is starting to worry me. First he insisted Glirdan was an active part of lynching Sally (which he wasn't), now he's questioning people's motives to vote him and considering the suspicions against him weak. I think I at least have pretty much evidence already, all his interactions with Sally yesterDay plus the things I mentioned in my vote post yesterDay. (I don't get it why it was bad reasoning for a vote. I thought it made a lot of sense, and I had elaborated on most of the points earlier in my long analysis post.) And then on top of that Skip concludes he is not sure about Glirdan, but he's not his top suspect. Fishy. If Glirdan is furry like I assume, I would look at Skip next, but if he's innocent, then I'm just confused.

Nerwen is also starting to worry me. The current situation looks awfully much to me like Sally and Glirdy are two of her fellows and she's doing some pretty drastic moves to make herself look good. I don't have any factual arguments, but somehow the calm rationality in which she presented/presents points against them makes me feel that she knows more than us others, and it's quite disturbing...

I'm totally disagreeing with Shasta over all kinds of things but it actually makes me think he's innocent. No wolf would surely sport such original and unpopular opinions about everything? He seems to think differently than the rest of us.

Anyway, though, my point is that waking up the known innocent from blind suspicion is not a good move for a wolf to make, but it is a good move for an innocent.I disagree - waking a known innocent up like that would make the wolf seem better, and if the known innocent's suspicions were directed to ward the wolf's fellows, it would be even profitable.

A technical point: getting a wolf lynched usually requires a bandwagon. Just saying.Love ya! <3<3<3 (that was the cutest thing I've heard anyone say in ww for a while :D)

In theory, the fact that winty got confused about sally's gender suggests he's innocent. But then, the nickname sally is rather feminine...Yes, in theory, but in a rather lousy theory. I was once wolves with a newbie named xyzzy (anybody remember him?) and I told him he shouldn't know too much of me since we didn't know before at all so I told him not to for example use the name "Lommy" of me before somebody else does etc. He took my advice very seriously and actually a lot further, he pretended he had no idea who the nickname referred to and confused my gender at some point too, so when I was lynched it took quite long for the village to find out he was my fellow because he seemed to know so little of me... So I do not trust ignorant-seeming newbies!

I don't quite get Green's Nog suspicion.She always suspects him, you know. ;)

edit: eww, xed with a lot (everyone after Agan's vote post)

Nogrod

04-12-2010, 03:42 PM

May not mean much, but I think it's funny that they said basically the exact same thing. :rolleyes:Nice spotting. There is at least the shared kind of lazyness "you all know he is suspicious so I'll just vote him for it and not bother to make my points against him". Hmm....

Is it something one should turn an eye on or only D3 tiredness and people wishing to get to sleep asap (they both voted around midnight our time)?

Shastanis Althreduin

04-12-2010, 03:44 PM

Actually, I was thinking just now, and Skip and Greenie have the exact same reason for thinking I'm suspicious. That's a little strange, I think.

Thinlómien

04-12-2010, 03:47 PM

It seems unfair to lynch a man unheard.I heard enough of him yesterDay. :p

++Glirdan

Seriously though, I'm quite confident about his guilt. And I know I often get it wrong when I'm too confident, but - sorry to say - even if Glirdan dies innocent, it will profit us, or at least me (it'll help me think). But just to flip-flop a bit more, I'll add that I have been right when confident too (Macalaure could testify!) Well, we'll see (hopefully).

Now I'm off to brush my yellow big teeth (aiee that sounded very wolvish, I just thought my teeth are more yellow than white and since I have big-ish front teeth I ended up saying big instead of small... :D) and I'll be back to check this thread quickly before I go to sleep just to see if there's anything so important that I have to still reply...

edit: xed with Nog and Shasta

skip spence

04-12-2010, 03:49 PM

It's a little odd to be voting someone for seeming too innocent. Just saying. :p :
You see, I wasn't saying you look too innocent, I was saying you look guilty for trying to look innocent. Or something like that.

It's not a very strong case, I know that, but I need to vote and it's the best I theory I can come up with at the moment and, as I said, I'm not happy with following neither of the possible bandwagons so far.

++Shasta

skip spence

04-12-2010, 03:54 PM

But yeah, with all the hype it would be interesting to see what Glirdan is.

Goodnight, I'll go to sleep now and hope a lucky star will shine on me tonight.

Shastanis Althreduin

04-12-2010, 03:57 PM

You see, I wasn't saying you look too innocent, I was saying you look guilty for trying to look innocent. Or something like that.

It's not a very strong case, I know that, but I need to vote and it's the best I theory I can come up with at the moment and, as I said, I'm not happy with following neither of the possible bandwagons so far.

++Shasta

But... that's... the same thing. :confused:

In any case, I haven't seen anything yet that makes me not want to vote Greenie, and I have rehearsal in a few minutes, so...

++Greenie

I still think she's the most suspicious (as for the Glirdan wagon, there are points both for and against him, but I'm seeing some people voting him for what it will say about others, and I just can't agree with that).

Thinlómien

04-12-2010, 04:00 PM

What are the votes now?

Glirdan 3, Inzil 2, Greenie 1, Nog 1, Shasta 1?

Starting to spread already, I see...

Well I'm going to sleep now. I hope you lynch Glirdy or some (other) wolf!

Nogrod

04-12-2010, 04:20 PM

(~~~) *grin appearing*

There's a familiar-looking shadow lurking outside my home... Now where's Isildur when you'd need him?

http://i213.photobucket.com/albums/cc90/NogrodU/Saurononthepavement.jpg

(~~~) *grin vanishing*

Nienna

04-12-2010, 04:25 PM

Hello all, sorry I haven't been around much until now but I've had a rather crazy day. Ok... a list:

Innocent:
Lottie – sheriff

Leaning Innocent:
Skip – he seems genuine and new at this… and not in the new-helped-by-packmates way either. He speculates on wolf-theory that experience has shown the rest of us in a way that to me seems like an innocent getting no help from pack-mates.
Brinn – she seems like she’s making an effort and she isn’t being very suspicious
Mira – maybe it’s just because I know how she plays but she isn’t looking very furry to me
Agan – seems like she’s making sense and after my epic analysis of her yesterday I’m thinking she’s an ordo -- now after her Zil vote I'm not so sure ...
Nerwen – she’s seems to be making sense… she’s someone I should probably do a thorough analysis of… most likely toMorrow if I’m alive
Lommy – nothing of her’s really sticks out as being furry
Greenie – same as Lommy really

No Idea/ No Read
Nog - seems not like the Nog I've played with before... I don't yet know what this says
Zil - is getting a rather lot of suspicion lately but I'm not quite sure why... he just seems a bit defensive for my taste at the moment.
Shasta - something about him isn't sitting quite right with me
Morsul – I didn’t like his opportunistic vote for Sally yesterDay
Legate – what is a little concerning about Legate right now is that Sally voted for him Day One… this is nothing against Legate but it makes me question my general tendency to trust him
WinWin - need to hear more from him toDay

Leaning Guilty
Glirdy - I wish he was here to defend himself but I think that it makes more sense to lynch him and find out his role than to just leave him to be a constant worry on us.

I should be around until Deadline now though I have to do homework so I can't do any major analysis.

Inziladun

04-12-2010, 04:58 PM

I'm still not all that enthused about lynching Glirdan, even though it could indeed give us some useful information.
For one thing, he posted on the Admin Thread he would be around very little toDay, and I would like to hear what he has to say about yesterDay's events before voting him. I don't think he was still around when I gave my take on and voted for him yesterDay.
Also, even though as I said, the scenario of a wolf-on-wolf between him and Sally is maybe not really as far-fetched as I initially thought, I still don't think it's likely.
I would prefer to vote for Mira, or maybe someone who now looks just as bad to me, Greenie, with her votes for Lottie (Day 1), Shasta (Day 2), and now Nog (Day 3). She seems to have made a point, especially after she was suspected for the Lottie vote, of staying out of the spotlight and voting safely. She also said some things toDay that make me uneasy.

Nogrod

04-12-2010, 05:04 PM

(~~~) *grin appearing*

Okay the time is catching on me... I have been thinking this to and fro and think I need to go with

++ Glirdan

Now I'm not perfectly happy with this. Sally and Glirdy bantering there in the beginning was mainly based on IC and I do find Glirdy's style of play or approach quite suspicious basically everytime I play with him. But as my main effort toDay was looking at the votes and how they would come out whether Glirdy was innocent or a wolf I just can't let go of that mindset now. I'd have a much clearer view on things if I knew what was his alignment. As sad as it is to say, we can afford a mislynch now as we are 13 against 3, but being honest, I do think we have better chances of getting a wolf by lynching Glirdan than with many others.

And just to sum up my ideas if I'm not here to share them toMorrow:

- if Glirdan is lynched and he turns out innocent, it would mean that:
Lommy looks somewhat bad.
skip (add also his staunch defence of Glirdy which could be trying to barr the revealment of his innocence) and Inzil would look quite bad.
- if Glirdan is lynched and he turns out a wolf, it would mean that:
Shasta and Mira would look quite bad.
Greenie and Agan would look relatively bad.

More details from my posts #486, #490 and #491.

(~~~) *grin vanishing for good*

EDIT: X'd with Zil...

wilwarin538

04-12-2010, 05:04 PM

Voty Votes

Morsul -> Glirdan
Brinn -> Glirdan (2)
Greenie -> Nogrod
Legate -> Inzil
Agan -> Inzil (2)
Lommy -> Glirdan (3)
Skip -> Shasta
Shasta -> Greenie
Nog -> Glirdan (4)

Nogrod

04-12-2010, 05:25 PM

(~~~) *grin appearing after vanishing for good*

I would prefer to vote for Mira, or maybe someone who now looks just as bad to me, Greenie, with her votes for Lottie (Day 1), Shasta (Day 2), and now Nog (Day 3).I don't know about Mira. I can see why she looks suspicious and I kind of share the feeling, but I haven't had time to check her, so I'm quite undecided with her. If you guys think there are good reasons to lynch her then do it. I just don't have time to dwell into that myself toDay.

There are enough votes to come to lynch anyone.

But I would say I find Greenie quite innocentish. Her explanations on D1 felt quite honest and true and even if she has managed to fool me big time a few times I still have a gut feeling she's not a baddie. As Lommy said, she tends to suspect me everytime we play so I can't say her suspicion on me was that great a surprise (and actually I can't blame her for voting Shasta either). Also, as I said earlier, she tends to like being the individual-minded, "not going with the flow" player, so I would be more surprised if she started bandwagoning...

(~~~) *grin vanishing for good the second time*

Nienna

04-12-2010, 05:53 PM

Zil you are worried about lynching Glirdy without him being around but want to lynch Mira who is equally un-around. Of the two I think Glirdy looks much worse than Mira.

Inziladun

04-12-2010, 06:04 PM

Zil you are worried about lynching Glirdy without him being around but want to lynch Mira who is equally un-around. Of the two I think Glirdy looks much worse than Mira.

The difference is that the things I suspected Mira for she's had an opportunity to address. That's not the case with Glirdan.
It seems it's a moot point anyway, as it looks like it's going to be Glirdan toDay.

Inziladun

04-12-2010, 06:28 PM

Oh well. Since everyone else is going with this:

++Glirdan

Better him than me, anyway.

Loslote

04-12-2010, 06:44 PM

Okay, comments so far:

Don't lynch Zil, Shasta, or Nog, kthnxbye. I would be happy with either a Glirdy or a Greenie lynch, and as Glirdy looks more likely...

++Glirdy

Especially for his throwaway Shasta vote on Day 1 and for his continued suspicious behavior yesterDay.

Nienna

04-12-2010, 06:46 PM

*wonders where everyone is...*

It is getting awfully close to deadline for no-one to be around...

Day 3
Morsul -> Glirdan
Brinn -> Glirdan (2)
Greenie -> Nogrod
Legate -> Inzil
Agan -> Inzil (2)
Lommy -> Glirdan (3)
Skip -> Shasta
Shasta -> Greenie
Nog -> Glirdan (4)
Zil -> Glirdan (5)
Lottie -> Glirdan (6)

Left to vote:
Glirdan
Mira
WinWin
Nerwen
Nienna

Crossed with Lottie's vote, updated

Nerwen

04-12-2010, 07:11 PM

Skip is starting to worry me. First he insisted Glirdan was an active part of lynching Sally (which he wasn't), now he's questioning people's motives to vote him and considering the suspicions against him weak. I think I at least have pretty much evidence already, all his interactions with Sally yesterDay plus the things I mentioned in my vote post yesterDay. (I don't get it why it was bad reasoning for a vote. I thought it made a lot of sense, and I had elaborated on most of the points earlier in my long analysis post.) And then on top of that Skip concludes he is not sure about Glirdan, but he's not his top suspect. Fishy. .

It may simply be that Skip, as a newbie, just sees things differently... maybe doesn't really understand what we're talking about when we say someone's "acting wolfish", e.t.c.

That said, it's indeed interesting how persistent Skip has been toDay– trying one approach after another to defend Glirdy– first he was "proactively participating in lynching Sally" (#438), then the suspicion against him comes out of nowhere and "there isn't much weight behind the Glirdan accusers" (#498), then it's statistically more likely he's innocent(?!) (#504), then Sally would have only listed one wolf in her"suspect" list, so it's "Shasta, possibly" (#509). (And then he votes Shasta on very weak grounds.)

Nerwen is also starting to worry me. The current situation looks awfully much to me like Sally and Glirdy are two of her fellows and she's doing some pretty drastic moves to make herself look good. I don't have any factual arguments, but somehow the calm rationality in which she presented/presents points against them makes me feel that she knows more than us others, and it's quite disturbing...

I don't, though.

EDIT:X'd with Loslote and Nienna.
EDIT2:added comment.

Loslote

04-12-2010, 07:11 PM

Trust:
me

Mostly trust:
Legate
Lommy
Shasta
Nog
Zil
Nerwen
Nienna

Sort of trust:
Morsul
Brinn
Agan
Skip
WW

Suspect:
Greenie
Glirdan
Mira

And yes, I now suspect Mira...turns out she's playing and I'd pretty much forgotten. ;)

Seriously, though, if I'm still alive toMorrow, she'd be a good one to look at. As will Greenie, of course.

And yes, I will be very vexed if you lynch any of my "mostly trust" list and they are innocent. Very, very vexed. :rolleyes:

EDIT: Ah, xed, lovely. :)

Inziladun

04-12-2010, 07:16 PM

I'm here. Who hasn't voted?

EDIT-just saw Nienna's vote count above

Nienna

04-12-2010, 07:23 PM

Well as nothing exciting is happening I might just as well vote now. Especially since I'm worried I'm going to forget at this pace.

++ Glirdy

because his death will (hopefully) give us more information than someone elses.

Nerwen

04-12-2010, 07:24 PM

Sally and Glirdy bantering there in the beginning was mainly based on IC and I do find Glirdy's style of play or approach quite suspicious basically everytime I play with him.

Same here– I've played several games with him and he's always like this, whatever his role. That's why I've been hesitating...

But as my main effort toDay was looking at the votes and how they would come out whether Glirdy was innocent or a wolf I just can't let go of that mindset now. I'd have a much clearer view on things if I knew what was his alignment. As sad as it is to say, we can afford a mislynch now as we are 13 against 3, but being honest, I do think we have better chances of getting a wolf by lynching Glirdan than with many others.

And just to sum up my ideas if I'm not here to share them toMorrow:

- if Glirdan is lynched and he turns out innocent, it would mean that:
Lommy looks somewhat bad.
skip (add also his staunch defence of Glirdy which could be trying to barr the revealment of his innocence) and Inzil would look quite bad.

....Err, yes– but what will you think if Glirdan turns out guilty? Isn't this like saying "Heads Skip's furry, tails he's a wolf?"

Anyway–

++Glirdan

EDIT:X'd with Nienna; wording.

Inziladun

04-12-2010, 07:27 PM

....Err, yes– but what will you think if Glirdan turns out guilty? Isn't this like saying "Heads Skip's furry, tails he's a wolf?"

Nog said the same of me: suspicious either way. :rolleyes:

wilwarin538

04-12-2010, 07:30 PM

DL.

Glirdan will be lynched.

Narration will be up in 2 minutes. Yes I will make you wait. You'll live. ;)

wilwarin538

04-12-2010, 07:35 PM

~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~

Alirin continued to run away from the little house with the dead rabbit until she realised where she was. The sight of the mad tea party made her realise she had run back the way she came from. She was about to turn and go back but then thought otherwise. “That evil mouse is dead, so I don’t have to be worried about him. I also never had the opportunity to speak with the other two, they seemed much nicer. Perhaps I’ll stay” she said to herself as she walked up to the table. The first thing she noticed was that they were now on the opposite side of the table as “the teapot”.

“No room! No room!” the March Hare yelled out when he saw her.

“No, but she is the one who was here earlier, we have room for her!” the Mad Hatter replied, pulling back the seat beside him for her to sit.

“No no, that’s not her at all.” the March Hare argued.

“I assure you it is. I’d know him anywhere!” the Mad Hatter replied with an odd giggle. So Alirin sat down.

“What day of the month is it?” the Hatter asked her, he was holding up his pocket watch to his ear, looking rather concerned. At this moment the March hare was pouring tea into a cup with no bottom.

“The twelfth.” Alirin responded.

“I knew it!” he exclaimed. “Two days wrong! I told you butter would do no good!” he said to the Hare.

“But it was the best butter!” the Hare responded before his spoon distracted him.

“Why is a raven like a writing desk?” the Hatter asked her, as he started dipping his pocket watch into his tea and occasionally holding it back up to his ear.

“Oh, well I’m not sure.” Alirin said after a few moments of thought. “What is the answer?”

“I haven’t the slightest idea!” he answered as he took a sip of tea.

“Well, I think you might do something better with the time, then wasting it by asking riddles that have no answers!” Alirin told him, rather put out.

“If you knew Time as well as I did,” the Hatter responded, “you wouldn’t be talking about IT, but rather HIM. I dare say you’ve never even spoken to Time!”

“And you do?” she asked, extremely curious.

“Why yes. Or, at least before last March. We got into a quarrel, right around the time that he (pointing at the Hare) went mad. It was at the great concert of the Queen of Hearts, and I had to sing. Well I was only into the second verse when she screamed out ‘He’s murdering the time! Off with his head!’”

“How dreadful!” Alirin responded, though she had become rather accustomed to violent deaths recently.

“So it was. Now he does nothing I ask, and it’s always 6 o’clock.” he replied, rather mournfully.

“The time for tea!” she concluded, now understanding why the tea table was so scattered with dishes.

“Indeed, it’s always tea time here!” he said, suddenly joyful. Just as she was starting to enjoy herself, this is when everything got terrible again. It all started when she asked a simple question.

“What is the number written on your hat?” she asked the Hatter.

“Oh, that is the price I’m selling this hat for.” he answered, looking sad again. “It’s my last one, that’s why I wear it. You see, I’m a wolf man.”

“A what?!” she asked, rather alarmed.

“A poor man.” he responded, clearing his throat. The March Hare was now pouring from a three spouted tea pot into three different cups (one of which was already full, the other with a large hole in it).

“That isn’t what you said before. You said wolf, not poor!” Alirin said, getting concerned and remembering what happened last time she was at this tea party and someone said “wolf”.

“No, no, no, I didn’t, no, no.” he responded, in the midst of giggling, crying and biting on his tea and butter flavoured pocket watch. As Alirin started to back away from the crazy Hatter there was a part of her that was slightly concerned for him. By this time he had his entire pocket watch shoved into his mouth, and he was biting and knawing and even foaming at the mouth, just like a rabid dog!

“Perhaps you should take a breather!” Alirin told him, reaching to pat him reassuringly on the back. But it was too late; he had already begun to choke on the two day late watch, and was face down in his gigantic tea cup.

The March Hare was still obliviously pouring tea into various cups when Alirin once again ran as fast as she could from the dreadful tea party.

~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~

Dead
Fea - Red Queen - Cobbler - lynched Day 1
Boro - the Caterpillar - Shirriff - killed Night 2
Sally - the Dormouse - Wolf - lynched Day 2
Izzy - White Rabbit - Ordinary - killed Night 3
Glirdan - Mad Hatter - Wolf - lynched Day 3

Alive
Nogrod – Cheshire Cat
Wintywinty – Tweedledum
Mira – March Hare
Agan – Queen of Hearts
Inzil – King of Hearts
Shasta – Knave of Hearts
Lottie – Duchess
Nerwen – the Dodo
Legate – Jabberwocky
Morsul – the Mock Turtle
Nienna – White Queen
Skip – Humpty Dumpty
Lommy – the Gryphon
Greenie – White Knight
Brinniel – Tweedledee

It is now Night 4.

wilwarin538

04-13-2010, 07:27 PM

~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~

Alirin continued to walk down the path, and the scenery around her always alternated from garden, to forest, to rivers, and back to gardens again. After quite some time she could see someone in all white riding towards her on a horse. When he was only ten feet away she saw him fall off and land on his head, only to get right back up and on the horse as if nothing had happened.

“The lady needs an escort!” the White Knight said to her as he turned around to ride in the direction she was walking. Alirin insisted that it was not necessary for him to accompany her, but he insisted it was his duty as a knight.

Alirin noticed this odd little box on a strap slung over his shoulder, it seemed to be upside down and the lid was wide open!

“Ah, I see you’ve noticed my invention.” he said, quite pleased. “It holds clothes and sandwiches and I’ve made it so that the rain cannot get in!”

“But the things inside can get out, don’t you see that the lid is open?” she remarked kindly.

“Well, then everything must have fallen out!” he proclaimed, seeming quite frustrated. “It’s no good now!” he said as he hung it on a nearby branch.

“What is the mousetrap for?” Alirin asked him, having noticed one attached to his saddle. “I don’t think there would be any mice on a horse.”

“Not very likely, “he responded, “but if they do come I don’t have to have them running all about!”

He fell off his horse again, so Alirin quickly helped him get back up. This is when she noticed these odd contraptions around the horse’s feet.

“It’s to protect them against shark attacks.” the White Knight explained, “it’s a good idea to be prepared for everything.”

Now whenever the horse stop (which it did often) the Knight would fall off from behind. When it would start again he would fall off the front. Otherwise he managed for the most part, though he did occasionally fall of sideways. After his fifth time of falling he mentioned how he had just thought of a new way of getting over gates.

“You see when I stand by a fence my head is high enough to get over, but my feet are not. So I figure if I put my hand on top of the fence, and then stand on my head, my feet will then be high enough to make it over!” he explained. By this time he was putting his helmet back on and remounting his horse.

“I invented this helmet too, you see!” the White Knight said, “It’s very special!”

“What is special about it?” Alirin asked.

“Well, when I wear it I can see people for what they truly are! It certainly comes in handy.”

“What am I? Truly?” the girl asked.

“You already know who you are, it’s everyone else out there who is a mystery!” the Knight said right before falling off his horse one last time and tumbling down into a deep ditch.

Alirin quickly ran over and looked down, but she could not see him because it was so very deep. After one last look, and a sad glance at the rider-less horse, she continued walking down the path. What a terrible place this was.

~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~

Dead
Fea - Red Queen - Cobbler - lynched Day 1
Boro - the Caterpillar - Shirriff - killed Night 2
Sally - the Dormouse - Wolf - lynched Day 2
Izzy - White Rabbit - Ordinary - killed Night 3
Glirdan - Mad Hatter - Wolf - lynched Day 3
Greenie - White Night - Seer - killed Night 4

Alive
Nogrod – Cheshire Cat
Wintywinty – Tweedledum
Mira – March Hare
Agan – Queen of Hearts
Inzil – King of Hearts
Shasta – Knave of Hearts
Lottie – Duchess
Nerwen – the Dodo
Legate – Jabberwocky
Morsul – the Mock Turtle
Nienna – White Queen
Skip – Humpty Dumpty
Lommy – the Gryphon
Brinniel – Tweedledee

It is now Day 4.

Inziladun

04-13-2010, 07:44 PM

Well, two wolves down, in exchange for the Seer. The bad with the good. At least though, Greenie's death came after a few Days had passed, and there may well be something worthwhile found in looking back at her activity. I saw no evidence she was the Seer, so maybe it was simply a matter of her saying something that unnerved the remnants of the pack.
And Glirdan? That was a most admirable ploy by Sally in trying to get him lynched Day 2. If that was just some fast thinking on her part, and wasn't planned out, I find it all the more amazing.

Nerwen

04-13-2010, 07:48 PM

Good luck, Wilwa!:)

–And bad luck for us. Just when things were going well...

Now, Greenie's death does not look like a no-trace kill, as she'd attracted quite a bit of suspicion. So I think it's likely the wolves guessed her identity, and/or had a specific motive for killing her (framing someone, taking the heat off a wolf, double-bluffing, etc...)

EDIT:X'd with Zil.

Inziladun

04-13-2010, 08:14 PM

*falls from horse*

Did the rules say we have to play mad instead of just having a WW game in a mad setting? :eek: Seriously, this is one of the oddest Day 1 beginnings I have ever seen. I dislike the votes so far, though that isn't to say anything on whether they are necessarily signs of wolvery or not.

My contribution toDay will be pretty much horrible - this is the worst possible day for me to be playing Werewolf - but I promise to be much more active in the Days to come! I've got to dash, but I'll return later. Try to be sensible, meanwhile. (It's easy for me to say, of course, given that I won't be around for most of toDay.. :rolleyes: )

First post. Doesn't like the early votes from Fea and ww. Explains she wouldn't be around much.

*falls from horse*
Back again! I'm feeling slightly hyper right now, so don't be annoyed if I'm not making much sense.. But here come some impressions of toDay.
I don't see Winty's vote as suspicious - nor innocent-looking, for that matter - it just is. Meaning that s/he (which is it, by the way?) could have done that just as well as a wolf as an innocent, and thus drawing conclusions on that seems weird to me. But then, everything here is weird.

Agan is lovely and provides a lot of substance (I'd raise my hat if I had one, unfortunately I only wear a helmet), I don't suspect her - but then, I always suspect her when she's innocent, so maybe she's a wolf now. Gah, I'm flip-flopping. Family vice. Sorry.

Lottie's analysis post was interesting, but I found the "gut feeling"-thing slightly eyebrow-raising. The so-called gut feelings were mostly reasoned points, so why call them gut feelings? It just struck me that calling a point a mere gut feeling kind of lessens the responsibility over it - one can, later, claim it was just a gut feeling, not my fault that we lynched an innocent, whoops.

Lommy is acting purposefully mysterious which strikes me as weird - she's having this manner of "I know something you others don't, let's see if I care to share it!" I don't quite know what to make of it, it's not usual her but then I'm not sure if it's necessarily suspicious either.

Okay, enough ranting, I don't remember if I had something to say about someone else still, so I'll let Lommy post and go to sleep and then do the same myself. Back soon babes!

Doesn't think much can be read into ww's vote. A small list of impressions of three people. Doesn't care for Lottie calling her points against people 'gut feelings', and it would seem this was the basis for her suspicion of Lottie.

Eurgh. Sorry. My concentration is poor today. :o

I know this reasoning is outrageously bad, but I'll tell it anyway because it's what I'm thinking: I'm kind of afraid that Lottie will become this typical Day 1 easy lynch (ordo), but then again, she's the only one I have any valid point at all, so

highlight]++ Lottie[/highlight]

Votes Lottie, which, since it followed that insane vote for her from Fea, looked strange to me. I thought she was getting in on a bandwagon, but I was willing to give her a pass because of her RL busy day.

Morsul the Dark

04-13-2010, 08:36 PM

Hmm I spent a Lot of time looking at Greenie because she garnerred so much suspicion.... Square One... Dang

Inziladun

04-13-2010, 08:52 PM

*some smilies removed*

Phew. Here at last, been running all day and now it's getting late again. I so wish the Day and Night phases were the other way round... So if I seem to be over-reacting (I fear I am) it's because I'm tired. This will be a mostly self-defensive post. The next one will include something rather more relevant to the game, I hope.
Seriously, I know being annoyed won't exactly help a thing, but I can't but be a tad annoyed. What, exactly, are your reasons for suspecting me? I suspected you yesterDay and happened to get the internet after Lommy (we're using the same one) so I voted you only after some others had done that already. That, I suppose, made my vote bandwaggonish. I had a reason to suspect you, I didn't have reason to suspect anyone else, so I voted you. Simple as that. And I think I had voiced my suspicion of you before the bandwagon against you had even started, so you can't claim my vote was just jumping on the bandwagon. As for the apologetic tone of my vote post, I was being honest. It did pop into my mind that I might be pursuing what would turn out a typical Day 1 easy lynch. I made the mistake of saying it aloud – if I had just played more confident than I was no one would have made such a fuss about my vote. Give me better arguments, please.
Not quite! Outrageously bad phrasing, more like. The outrageously bad had to do with that I was kind of worried about a typical easy Day 1 lynch, but still wanted to vote for Lottie who I suspected. My reasons for voting Lottie, while not all that great, were still substantial by Day 1 standards.

Defends her vote for Lottie.

Yeah. I was referring to the reasoning that I'm afraid of a typical Day 1 easy lynch but still vote for you. My actual reasoning for suspecting you wasn't outrageously bad. If I still can't make this understood, I suppose I must blame being a non-native speaker for not being able to explain myself.
You did miss something. It was that she called every point she had a gut-feeling, also those that were actual reasoned points and not gut-feelings - which struck me as horribly fishy. But really, discussing this is not fruitful as far as I can see.

Now to write some actual substance. I'm sick of talking about myself.

Still talking about her vote for Lottie.

Okay, but why were you pretty confident about her?
Yes, I think we can rather safely assume that Lottie has the village's best interests at heart. But she is not the seer. She doesn't know anybody's role and can be as wrong as any of us.

Eurgh I had some other quotes I wanted to comment on but it seems I've lost them. Off to write a list and then vote. I'll probably be suspected for voting out of the blue this time because I don't have much of an idea until I've looked at the list of villagers and considered each one in turn.

Remains us all that Lottie is not the Seer, and could be mistaken. The fact that Lottie suspected Greenie is proof enough of that. I don't think that was a clue the wolves necessarily picked up that made them look at her as the Seer, because I, and I think someone else, said the same thing.

Ok, great. Really, I'm sorry if I've sounded cross, I'm just very very tired and it's very very late and I've been up since rather early morning. :(

Glirdan – Hmm. I have no read on him myself, others have brought up good points against him, though, but I'd have to investigate myself to form an opinion.

Nogrod – Usually, at this point of the game, I'm convinced he's a wolf. This far I guess he's never been one when we've played together. So now I'm wondering if I should get worried as I've found no reason to suspect him... :rolleyes:

Wintywinty – Too little to go on with.

Isabellkya – From what I remember of her she's been making sense and passing unnoticed. I have no reason to suspect her, but she alarms me a little because of being so smooth and sensible.

Mira – Feels innocent though I disagree with her a lot.

Sally – Her behaviour yesterDay around the voting, concerning Lottie, was weird. Other than that, she's been the usual hard-to-read Sally.

Agan – Seems genuine and makes a lot of sense. I'm not saying she's innocent - I know how capable she is of fooling me - but I won't be voting her without a good reason.

Inzil – No effing idea.

Shasta – The reasoning for his vote was rather bad, could be even wolvish - I was a little (green) suspected at that point I think but not much, so voting for me would have been rather ideal: not rubbing people the wrong way, yet not bandwaggoning either. Otherwise he has flown under my radar.

Lottie – I believe her claim though I disagree with her about almost everything. :p

Nerwen – No idea.

Legate – Seems innocentish this far.

Morsul – No idea.

Nienna – Hmm. Not sure. At times she feels very genuine, at others she feels like a sneaky wolf. Can't say which she is.

Skip – Seems maybe the most innocentish at this point (discounting Lottie and myself, of course), makes sense and feels genuine.

Lommy – Has dropped the mysterious attitude and feels more or less like her innocent self.

Brinniel – I'm leaning towards thinking her innocent. Her reactions seem genuine to me.

A list. Shasta seemed to be the one she most suspected.

I sincerely hope that you will not succeed in your attempt. Talking about getting people lynched, I'd be interested to know who people are going to vote. I want to go to bed as soon as possible, but I'd like to hear some more opinions before voting..

Eurgh. I'm starting to see why Glirdy is suspected. I didn't like that long post of his at all. Or, it was long, but it included mainly suspicion on one of the village's top suspects and confirming innocent a person everyone's been considering innocent pretty much all Day. He could be an innocent who just suspects the same person as everyone else, but I didn't like the tone of that post.

Suspicion of Glirdan, but nothing that would point to her having Seer information, I don't think.

Right. I'm too tired to look up your vote post so correct me if I'm straying, but I believe you voted me because my vote seemed bandwaggonish. I think I've said enough about that vote already. What struck me as fishy about your vote was not only that it seemed ideally placed for a wolf, but also that voting someone for a bandwaggonish vote is about as easy a reason for a vote one can come up with, one that is seldom questioned though rather flimsy.

I was about to vote for you, but your latest post made me wonder if I should after all, it seemed somewhat genuine and sensible.

Reponds to Shasta, whom she had suspected because of his vote for her Day 1.

My usual bed time was approximately four hours ago.

highlight]++ Shasta[/highlight]

I'll explain more fully toMorrow, if required. Good night.

Votes for Shasta after all.

Nienna

04-13-2010, 08:53 PM

This seer-death of Greenie does not look good for Nog. I think he bears a much closer look today.

Shastanis Althreduin

04-13-2010, 08:57 PM

Greenie was the Seer?!

I must have spent an hour earlier today putting all my points against her into one big case, and see where it gets me. :rolleyes:

Before I go look back at her posts (again) myself, I would like to make one point that has nothing to do with Greenie:

Even though Glirdan turned out to be a wolf, he was still pretty easily the choice for lynch the entire day, making him the "easy lynch", so I really don't like Nog's insistence that multiple people were "voting the easy lynches" when he himself voted for Glirdan. Really don't.

Now, off to look at Greenie's posts in a different light.

Loslote

04-13-2010, 09:07 PM

Removed smilies.

*falls from horse*

Did the rules say we have to play mad instead of just having a WW game in a mad setting? Seriously, this is one of the oddest Day 1 beginnings I have ever seen. I dislike the votes so far, though that isn't to say anything on whether they are necessarily signs of wolvery or not.

My contribution toDay will be pretty much horrible - this is the worst possible day for me to be playing Werewolf - but I promise to be much more active in the Days to come! I've got to dash, but I'll return later. Try to be sensible, meanwhile. (It's easy for me to say, of course, given that I won't be around for most of toDay.. )

Complains a bit (understandably) about the insanity so far.

*falls from horse*
Back again! I'm feeling slightly hyper right now, so don't be annoyed if I'm not making much sense.. But here come some impressions of toDay.
I don't see Winty's vote as suspicious - nor innocent-looking, for that matter - it just is. Meaning that s/he (which is it, by the way?) could have done that just as well as a wolf as an innocent, and thus drawing conclusions on that seems weird to me. But then, everything here is weird.

Agan is lovely and provides a lot of substance (I'd raise my hat if I had one, unfortunately I only wear a helmet), I don't suspect her - but then, I always suspect her when she's innocent, so maybe she's a wolf now. Gah, I'm flip-flopping. Family vice. Sorry.

Lottie's analysis post was interesting, but I found the "gut feeling"-thing slightly eyebrow-raising. The so-called gut feelings were mostly reasoned points, so why call them gut feelings? It just struck me that calling a point a mere gut feeling kind of lessens the responsibility over it - one can, later, claim it was just a gut feeling, not my fault that we lynched an innocent, whoops.

Lommy is acting purposefully mysterious which strikes me as weird - she's having this manner of "I know something you others don't, let's see if I care to share it!" I don't quite know what to make of it, it's not usual her but then I'm not sure if it's necessarily suspicious either.

Okay, enough ranting, I don't remember if I had something to say about someone else still, so I'll let Lommy post and go to sleep and then do the same myself. Back soon babes!

Gives her impressions on people. If her Night 1 dream is among them, I'd guess it was Agan...but I don't think she mentioned her dream here.

Eurgh. Sorry. My concentration is poor today. :o

I know this reasoning is outrageously bad, but I'll tell it anyway because it's what I'm thinking: I'm kind of afraid that Lottie will become this typical Day 1 easy lynch (ordo), but then again, she's the only one I have any valid point at all, so

[*highlight]++ Lottie[/highlight*]

EDIT: eek x-ed since Boro

Votes me...and I think we can assume this means she dreamt an innocent first Night.

Phew. Here at last, been running all day and now it's getting late again. I so wish the Day and Night phases were the other way round... So if I seem to be over-reacting (I fear I am) it's because I'm tired. This will be a mostly self-defensive post. The next one will include something rather more relevant to the game, I hope.
Seriously, I know being annoyed won't exactly help a thing, but I can't but be a tad annoyed. What, exactly, are your reasons for suspecting me? I suspected you yesterDay and happened to get the internet after Lommy (we're using the same one) so I voted you only after some others had done that already. That, I suppose, made my vote bandwaggonish. I had a reason to suspect you, I didn't have reason to suspect anyone else, so I voted you. Simple as that. And I think I had voiced my suspicion of you before the bandwagon against you had even started, so you can't claim my vote was just jumping on the bandwagon. As for the apologetic tone of my vote post, I was being honest. It did pop into my mind that I might be pursuing what would turn out a typical Day 1 easy lynch. I made the mistake of saying it aloud – if I had just played more confident than I was no one would have made such a fuss about my vote. Give me better arguments, please.
Not quite! Outrageously bad phrasing, more like. The outrageously bad had to do with that I was kind of worried about a typical easy Day 1 lynch, but still wanted to vote for Lottie who I suspected. My reasons for voting Lottie, while not all that great, were still substantial by Day 1 standards.

EDIT: eurgh x-ed with a horse (hehe what a typo, was supposed to write 'horde' )

Defends herself; doesn't say anything that could be taken as a dream.

Yeah. I was referring to the reasoning that I'm afraid of a typical Day 1 easy lynch but still vote for you. My actual reasoning for suspecting you wasn't outrageously bad. If I still can't make this understood, I suppose I must blame being a non-native speaker for not being able to explain myself.
You did miss something. It was that she called every point she had a gut-feeling, also those that were actual reasoned points and not gut-feelings - which struck me as horribly fishy. But really, discussing this is not fruitful as far as I can see.

Now to write some actual substance. I'm sick of talking about myself.

Defends herself again.

Okay, but why were you pretty confident about her?
Yes, I think we can rather safely assume that Lottie has the village's best interests at heart. But she is not the seer. She doesn't know anybody's role and can be as wrong as any of us.

Eurgh I had some other quotes I wanted to comment on but it seems I've lost them. Off to write a list and then vote. I'll probably be suspected for voting out of the blue this time () because I don't have much of an idea until I've looked at the list of villagers and considered each one in turn.

EDIT: x-ed with Glirdy and Lottie

But she is not the seer...okay, in hindsight, lol. XD Anyway...she responds to Nienna, but I don't think she knew what Nienna's role was at the time.

Ok, great. Really, I'm sorry if I've sounded cross, I'm just very very tired and it's very very late and I've been up since rather early morning.

Responding to me; not much seer-ness there.

Glirdan – Hmm. I have no read on him myself, others have brought up good points against him, though, but I'd have to investigate myself to form an opinion.

Nogrod – Usually, at this point of the game, I'm convinced he's a wolf. This far I guess he's never been one when we've played together. So now I'm wondering if I should get worried as I've found no reason to suspect him...

Wintywinty – Too little to go on with.

Isabellkya – From what I remember of her she's been making sense and passing unnoticed. I have no reason to suspect her, but she alarms me a little because of being so smooth and sensible.

Mira – Feels innocent though I disagree with her a lot.

Sally – Her behaviour yesterDay around the voting, concerning Lottie, was weird. Other than that, she's been the usual hard-to-read Sally.

Agan – Seems genuine and makes a lot of sense. I'm not saying she's innocent - I know how capable she is of fooling me - but I won't be voting her without a good reason.

Inzil – No effing idea.

Shasta – The reasoning for his vote was rather bad, could be even wolvish - I was a little (green) suspected at that point I think but not much, so voting for me would have been rather ideal: not rubbing people the wrong way, yet not bandwaggoning either. Otherwise he has flown under my radar.

Lottie – I believe her claim though I disagree with her about almost everything.

Nerwen – No idea.

Legate – Seems innocentish this far.

Morsul – No idea.

Nienna – Hmm. Not sure. At times she feels very genuine, at others she feels like a sneaky wolf. Can't say which she is.

Skip – Seems maybe the most innocentish at this point (discounting Lottie and myself, of course), makes sense and feels genuine.

Lommy – Has dropped the mysterious attitude and feels more or less like her innocent self.

Brinniel – I'm leaning towards thinking her innocent. Her reactions seem genuine to me.

EDIT: x-ed since my last

List! Here we go (dream-wise). She says Skip "seems maybe the most innocentish at this point". This makes me inclined to think that she might have dreamed him...but not for sure. It also looks likely that she dreamt innocent!Agan - "I won't be voting her without a good reason." She also could have dreamed innocent!Mira, innocent!Lommy, innocent!Brinn, or innocent!Legate. She says they all seem innocent at this point, and I'm pretty sure she'd dreamed of innocent people.

I sincerely hope that you will not succeed in your attempt. Talking about getting people lynched, I'd be interested to know who people are going to vote. I want to go to bed as soon as possible, but I'd like to hear some more opinions before voting..

EDIT: x-ed with Noggy, Winty & Glirdy

Asks for ideas of who people are going to vote.

Eurgh. I'm starting to see why Glirdy is suspected. I didn't like that long post of his at all. Or, it was long, but it included mainly suspicion on one of the village's top suspects and confirming innocent a person everyone's been considering innocent pretty much all Day. He could be an innocent who just suspects the same person as everyone else, but I didn't like the tone of that post.

She says she's beginning to suspect Glirdy. Now, this may be wishful thinking, but I don't think she'd dreamt him at this point.

Right. I'm too tired to look up your vote post so correct me if I'm straying, but I believe you voted me because my vote seemed bandwaggonish. I think I've said enough about that vote already. What struck me as fishy about your vote was not only that it seemed ideally placed for a wolf, but also that voting someone for a bandwaggonish vote is about as easy a reason for a vote one can come up with, one that is seldom questioned though rather flimsy.

I was about to vote for you, but your latest post made me wonder if I should after all, it seemed somewhat genuine and sensible.

EDIT: x-ed with Shasta and Sally

Hmm. Says she supects Shasta but that the last post seemed innocent. I doubt if she'd dreamt him yet.

My usual bed time was approximately four hours ago.

[*highlight]++ Shasta[/highlight*]

I'll explain more fully toMorrow, if required. Good night.

Votes Shasta with a promise for further explanation later.

First, some comments on toDay. I'm not sure how much weight we can give to Sally's last words about Glirdy being a wolf. To me, at least, she seemed rather more like a wolf who knows she's going to die trying to make a mess before she goes. Looked at in that way, I don't think we should jump into conclusions based on anything she said - regardless of whether they are conclusions for or against Glirdy's guilt.

I think you are a bit off in this argument. At least as far as my werewolf-experience goes, few wolves actually put all their fellows in the "no opinion" -category - or any same category, for that matter. A wolf is almost always a tad paranoid, and wold prefer to avoid cramming all his fellows under the same heading just so as not to make all their names appear together. Besides, a bit of wolf-on-wolf suspicion - or even open wolf-on-wolf fraternizing - is actually safer for a wolf than just carefully not saying anything about one's fellows. And, in addition to that, I've never seen an Aganwolf not pulling off any kind of wolf-on-wolf thing.

Moving on to yesterDay next... (I also have a gigantic - well, sort of - post coming, I checked people's attitudes to Sally from the two previous Days!)

Doesn't think we can give much weight to Sally's Glirdy lynch drive, so probably didn't dream him. Also doesn't suspect Agan...I think maybe she did dream of Agan; she's been very solid in her support.

I thought I had already given one, and meant that if elaboration on it was required I would do that later. Basically, I voted for you because your vote from Day 1 looked strategically clean (voting for someone that has been somewhat suspected but hasn't gained any votes that far - not causing discord or attracting attention nor yet getting accused of bandwaggoning).
I'm sorry, I think I missed something. Could you explain what you mean by this?
That, I think, is a very dangerous path to take (wow, doesn't that sound epic!) because knowing that Lottie has our best interests at heart isn't saying anything about how accurate her suspicions are. Throughout WW history there have been innocents who bark at the wrong tree for an entire game though they have the village's best interests at heart.
I don't like this one, either. A wolf can very well make great contributions - a Nerwolf certainly can - and off-handedly dismissing the possibility makes it seem like you are grasping at straws to suspect whoever it was who talked about the great contributions. (I've lost the spot where I found this quote, should check that, probably...)

Now, off to write my Sally-post..

Elaborated on her Shasta-vote, but doesn't come down too hard on him, so she probably didn't dream him. Also doesn't like Zil's reasoning.

Explain myself about what? I'm confused. :p The quotes from yesterDay I picked during the Night phase when I was reading what happened after I went to sleep, I saved them on a Word file and of course wasn't bright enough to note who Inzil responded to.

Not much there.

Okay, here comes my massive Sally-post - being a quick analysis on people's reactions to Sally. This post doesn't include everything that has been said about Sally (no banter posts & no posts that give no actual information).

Nogrod

Carefully voices some suspicion on her yet flip-flops nicely. The three dots in the end creep me out, like the ”I never get her” in the beginning. He's kind of – how to say it – decisively undecisive. Looks rather wolf-on-wolf, though could be genuine.

Could go either way, really.

I don't like the look of this. Looks like an opportunistic wolf-on-wolf vote.

Nienna
Sally - I can usually read her pretty well and I'm not getting alarm bells yet... but we shall see (Nienna)
I'm not all that fond of the ”we shall see” in the end – it looks like trying not to look too positive about a fellow's innocence.

Makes me feel a bit better about Nienna. If I recall correctly, this was in a post of its own – and though not unheard of, bringing up a new point against a fellow in a one-liner post doesn't strike me as wolf-on-wolf suspicion.

I could see a Niennawolf behind this post, accusing Morsul after that first paragraph that could be interpreted as herself doing the exact same thing she blames Morsul of. But then again, I agree with her about Morsul and her tone still strikes me as genuine. (A sidenote: if Nienna and Morsul are fellows I'm going to eat my hat.)

Still innocentish tone.

Glirdan
Gah. The ”...yet” in the end looks again like trying not to sound too positive about a fellow's innocence.

Could well be a wolf turning against a fellow: he seems rather ready to jump on Sally after it's become clear that she's the clear main suspect of the Day. Could also be an innocent Glirdan trying to save his own skin by making a show of suspecting Sally – regardless of whether he actually did or not.
The same as the previous one, but to a greater extent.

Still looks like he's decided to suspect her. Could be wolf-on-wolf, could be desperate innocent-on-wolf.

Aganzir
A sensible point, could well have been by an innocent Agan, but the phrasing of the underlined part struck me as slightly fishy – it's too careful (maybe, a bit), not much like Agan's usual provocative style.

This, in turn, looks okay.

Could well be a wolf assuring that the death of a fellow would be okay while not enforcing the suspicion on her.

This strikes me as genuine innocent reasoning, though. Agan is driving me mad.

Legate
A long rant the point of which was mainly that he'll be keeping an eye on her. Makes me think a wolvish Leggy wouldn't have ranted such lengths about a fellow.

I don't like the ”But whatever...” in the end – looks like he's suspecting Sally and then dismissing it.
Could go either way, really.
This doesn't strike me as wolf-on-wolf reasoning at all.
Could be a furry Legate deciding that Sally is a lost case anyway. I'm leaning innocent on this quote, too, though. The tone is more like an innocent Legate deciding to ”see how things go”.

Lommy
This seems genuine enough.

Eurgh, could go either way – I'm leaning towards thinking this looks innocentish, but can't say.

Could be a Lommywolf flip-flopping on whether or not Sally's situation looks hopeless enough to justify a wolf-on-wolf vote.

Morsul
I'm not sure what to make of this. The underlined part sounds really as if he didn't particularly care about who his vote goes to. Normally that kind of behaviour points to a wolf, but on the other hand, a wolf would care about a fellow getting or not getting lynched. It wouldn't be all the same for a wolf whether his fellow is lynched or not, even if that wolf actually voted for that fellow. But then, this post could just as well be an opportunistic wolf voting for a doomed fellow without bothering to come up with arguments to back it up.

Super-confusing. I have no idea what to think about this. At all. Maybe leaning innocent – I don't think a furry Morsul would say this.

Nerwen
Not too fond of the tone of this one. If Sally had been innocent, I'd say this is awfully wolvish. With Sally being a wolf, I'm mainly confused.

Inzil
I don't like how Inzil takes one villager's list of suspects and picks his main suspect from there – the said main suspect being that of most of the village. Wolf-on-wolf? I could see it there, but not necessarily.

Winty

Really, this could go either way. Unless Glirdy was a wolf too, this wouldn't make sense as a wolfywolfy's post unless he was well-instructed during the Night or else followed the lead of one of his fellows during the Day. (Who? I might look into that at some point, it might be enlightening..) I'm talking, of course, about a newbie wolf debating on whether to vote for a fellow or an innocent.
Could be again waiting to get supplied with reasons during the Night. Eurgh. Don't know.

Shasta
Shasta defends Sally here, though only in a small matter. First impression: wolf!! Second impression: I'm not sure if a furry Shasta would defend a fellow who's the main suspect of the Day.

Brinn
Reasoned, unlike many of the Sally-suspecters of yesterDay. Doesn't look wolf-on-wolf.

So here we are. Based on this, I'd make the following list:

good:
Nienna
Legate
Winty
Brinn
leaning goood:
Lommy

confusing aargh:
Nerwen
Morsul
Agan

leaning bad:
Shasta
Inzil
bad:
Nogrod
Glirdan

Mira and Skip I had no quotes on - either because they didn't say anything about her at all, I've lost the quotes in my vast sea of quotes, or they didn't say anything about her that wasn't banter. Please, sweeties, fill me in on which is true.

EDIT: x-ed with 2x Lom & Skip, don't have time to read them, gotta dash, see you later, bye!

Actually, she might have dreamed wolf!Nog...it's beginning to look quite bad for him. I think she dreamed either Legate or Agan, though.

I'm back! First off, it seems I've made a mess again with the Inzil-quote-thing.Ok, that's cleared - I understood great to mean considerable of size/quantity/importance.
Yeah. It was partly that I misunderstood Inzil, partly that I didn't like the way he seemed to imply that making sense and being a wolf can't go together.
A probably irrelevant question: what does TLDR mean?
Ok, thanks, that cleared - though I'm not sure if I buy your point.
A technical point: getting a wolf lynched usually requires a bandwagon. Just saying. Of course, that isn't to say that I approve of Morsul's early, bandwaggonish vote. I don't.

Responding to random things; not much there to guess at dreams from.

I'd prefer voting Glirdan or Nogrod toDay. Glirdan's death, as has been mentioned, would shed light to many things, and his interactions with Sally were very fishy. Nogrod's interactions with Sally looked bad too, and I don't like how he's been slipping under pretty much everyone's radar, being nice and invisible yet contributing. I could also vote Shasta or Inzil, but would prefer one of the earlier two.

Would want to vote for Glirdy (a wolf) or Nog (who she might have dreamed). Actually, the Nog-theory looks pretty convincing...which is a bit of a bummer, because I thought he was innocent.

Bed-time! I've been flip-flopping on whether to vote Nog or Glirdy, and decided to go for

[*highlight]++ Nogrod[/highlight*]

Now I'm not sure if this is a throwaway, I suppose one could see it as such, but I just feel I should stir the pot a bit. I find Nogrod very suspicious, he's being too agreeable and nudging things from the background, and his interactions with Sally seemed quite wolf-on-wolf to me.

I won't be disappointed if Glirdy gets lynched. Unless he's an innocent, of course. That said, good night babes!

EDIT: x-ed with leggy-leggy-legz

Okay, it's looking very bad for Nog now, and she does make good points. My guess is (and I'm well aware that this is probably wrong and nothing to base *anything* on) that she dreamed either Agan or Legate, probably Agan, and Skip, and then Nog.

Pre-edit: I'm sure I've xed since Nerwen's first.

Inziladun

04-13-2010, 09:44 PM

I was working on Greenie's Day 3, but it looks like Lottie beat me to it, and probably is more concise and sensible anyway.

Morsul the Dark

04-13-2010, 09:45 PM

Loslote

04-13-2010, 09:52 PM

Moving away from Greenie for the moment...

I was shocked by the pick if I do say so myself not to toot my own horn I was sure I was going to be the victem to days in a row with the right vote... That NEVER happens for me(I'm excited) keep it alive folks!

I'm looking into Agan this is going to be a looong loong post coming up... sorry

Um. This isn't moving away from Greenie. Not really. It's still the Night pick. And, not to be mean, you've been voting quite well, but it's not really the same as if you'd been original. You bandwaggoned; there are a lot of people who've bandwaggoned and gotten lucky this game.

Anyway, aside from the *ahem* interesting logic here, this post looks rather bad. Like I said earlier with others, "I was shocked by the pick" looks like "I had no part in choosing it, kthnxbye". (Side note: Shasta does this too - "I spent hours gathering evidence" - but that could just be frustration that he was wrong and wasted his time, rather than randomly "I didn't think that was going to happen".) Also, the "keep it alive folks" looks rather like a wolfly pep-talk.

And why Agan? Since when do you suspect her?

Morsul the Dark

04-13-2010, 09:54 PM

I don't suspect her that's the point I was fully prepared to vote Greenie today.

I need to look at people I don't suspect. Agan sprang to mind.

Morsul the Dark

04-13-2010, 09:55 PM

keep alive folks is "wolfy"? really three days cobbler wolf wolf youd Don't want to keep that trend alive?

Loslote

04-13-2010, 10:00 PM

I don't suspect her that's the point I was fully prepared to vote Greenie today.

I need to look at people I don't suspect. Agan sprang to mind.

So...just random, then? If it's just random, why don't you look at someone who doesn't look extremely good considering she was one of the people the seer trusted her whole "life"? :rolleyes:

keep alive folks is "wolfy"? really three days cobbler wolf wolf youd Don't want to keep that trend alive?

Of course I do. Any innocent would. This goes without saying. Thus, when someone does say it, it seems strange. Why would you need to say it? Because you don't think people would assume you do think that. Why would you worry what people think you think? You're furry.

Inziladun

04-13-2010, 10:04 PM

Would want to vote for Glirdy (a wolf) or Nog (who she might have dreamed). Actually, the Nog-theory looks pretty convincing...which is a bit of a bummer, because I thought he was innocent.

I suspected Greenie for her vote on Nog, because it was so vaguely reasoned, and on someone who was not suspected by anyone else. Curiously, Nog himself disagreed.

But I would say I find Greenie quite innocentish. Her explanations on D1 felt quite honest and true and even if she has managed to fool me big time a few times I still have a gut feeling she's not a baddie. As Lommy said, she tends to suspect me everytime we play so I can't say her suspicion on me was that great a surprise (and actually I can't blame her for voting Shasta either). Also, as I said earlier, she tends to like being the individual-minded, "not going with the flow" player, so I would be more surprised if she started bandwagoning...

That seemed genuine to me at the time, but I suppose it could have been an attempt by a Nogwolf to distance himself from suspecting her. Then again, Nog would have to have known that her being killed after voting him would reflect badly on him. Would he have been unnerved enough by her vote of him to have taken that risk?

x/d with Morsul and Lottie

Shastanis Althreduin

04-13-2010, 10:13 PM

I refresh the page and Lottie's already done what I was doing. More time wasted. :p

I do have an addendum, though. I think Agan was dreamed, but I don't think it was until Day 2. This might be slightly meta (and if so, feel free to smack me) but I think Skip is new enough that Greenie might have waited to see if he was readable before dreaming him.

I think my next project is going to be a Nog-alysis. No one beat me to it, now, or I'll have to steal some tarts.

Morsul the Dark

04-13-2010, 10:13 PM

Why'd I say it? because I'm psyched this is the furthest I've ever made it on the winning side in WW:eek: I said it more for myself...

Shastanis Althreduin

04-13-2010, 10:22 PM

Anyone notice that Morsul has talked more in the last half hour or so than he has all game long? :eek:

Morsul the Dark

04-13-2010, 10:29 PM

I'm off tomorrow:D I can stay on all night yay!

Morsul the Dark

04-13-2010, 11:09 PM

Agan 37 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=626664&postcount=37)

Wow that's a long post.

Defends Winty from Nerwen... calls Nerwen suspicious for asking a reasonable question. Talks about wolf strategies.

Agan 55 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=626711&postcount=55) Seriously... Take the keyboard away from Agan!:rolleyes:

Another long post. boils down to a lot of not much. I still think he want's everyone to get rid of their votes... I t just seems bad what if we Need them later? no one has "Extra" votes this time retractables are an excellent tool, for us and yes sadly for the wolves but with only two wolves left it's even better for us to have them.

Agan 62 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=626718&postcount=62)

List. Most Likely to vote me.... These three show an odd trend however Each One mentions a slip-up maybe She keeps saying something like "Wow I'm glad no one thought I was a wolf for that." As if relieved no one picked up on her mess up.... but only three posts not enough to worry about yet.

By the way While I'm writing this I have another tab going checking on whats going on real time. Shasta thinks Agan was dreamed... Well She May have been but how would we Know that? I think someone's trying to get me to look somewhere else as is Lottie. Now all three can't be evil but One may be

Agan 80 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=626738&postcount=80)

Agan keeps talking about Cobbler appearing "innocent" to seers... I've never known this rule/idea. Seems to want us to not entirely trust our seer granted this point after Fea's lynching is moot it is still strange to advocate. Oh and real quick I'd like to point out 2 wolf votes maybe my logic Does work sometimes!:p

Agan 88 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=626749&postcount=88)

Mostly response to me. First off thanks for calling me Lazy, That was pretty cool of you. Second I take these games too seriously if I'm "Half Hearted it's because This time around I'm trying to have fun, which I am. Lastly uses retractable taking own advice good move.

110 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=626776&postcount=110)

Imagine some innocents, a couple of wolves. The innocents have used (most of) their retractions, the wolves haven't. The wolves can vote for whomever is the most convenient for them and then, when most other votes have been given, unite and direct their votes towards an innocent who is lynched, and nobody else can do anything. Because I can see that scenario, I'd rather eliminate it before the wolves have even a chance to try it.
That's why you keep it and not use it. Though it seems Sally used hers as well maybe have their pack-mates keep theirs while trying to get the rest of us to use ours?

247 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=626967&postcount=247) At this point she's using a lot of 'Yeah I'm a wolf ha ha' lines in some of her posts too many for my comfort as Sally said wolves can hide behind these jokes and she's bee using them a lot.

I'd like to point out Lottie has Agan Greeni Glirdan and Sally as the wolves Ok Greenie is wrong but the other two are right... So agan this is a very very Small point against you tiny (It won't be a vote maker don't worry.)

249 rebukes Lottie... good show...

At this point Agan is on the fence for me. I won't vote her unless I see something amazing in the rest of her posts.

252 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=626975&postcount=252)
Suspects Inzil for listening to him... Another Argument I've had. Why do we bother listing reasons unless we expect to persuade anyone? Why am I doing this post? Sure I could look through say "Hey agan's cleared/guilty(let you know when I'm done)" Then everyone would say "where's your reasoning?" I read other peoples' analyses and like their reasons so I I take that was a reason to vote. I'm sorry about the way I do things.

This isn't only Agan's view but I find it all too common.

281 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=627009&postcount=281)

I really don't like the way Agan's going after people who haven't used their retractions seems to be an easy way to pick off people and have her dream scenario of only wolves having theirs left.

285 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=627014&postcount=285)

Line she does something she condemns others for she take's nienna's word and changes suspicion. I'm Opportunistic Lazy a Horrible Person should be lynched right now and so what I voted for two wolves so what obviously I some horrible person.... (Sorry, Serenity NOW)

489 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=627287&postcount=489)

Last Paragraph agains says she put Sally as supicious based only on what others said isn't that terrible thing to do Agan... "Do as I say not as I do?"

511 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=627330&postcount=511)
1 Am I'm really sleepy... Look I Can't find anything outside of some name calling I feel unfairly towards me I can't find anything Agan is cleared in my mind....

Nerwen Tomorrow... or later today whatever time it is...She's always under my radar.

Brinniel

04-13-2010, 11:25 PM

It's late and I'm sleep deprived, so I probably will be saying very little for the time being.

I mentioned yesterDay that Glirdan's death could shed light on many things, and knowing he was a wolf, I think it'll be a very good idea to look at his and others' posts from earlier Days along with yesterDay's voting. With the votes....after losing one wolf, I would think the other two wouldn't be so ready to sacrifice another, so I would look at those who were hesitant and perhaps discouraging of the bandwagon. Of course, it'd also be very easy for a wolf to hide within that bandwagon, and I'm sure at least one is in there. Those who didn't vote until later when it was evident Glirdan was a lost cause would probably look the worst, but then again we must keep in mind time zones/availability which could make the timing of the votes not so valid.

Greenie's death is a surprise. Upon learning Glirdan's role, I was thinking she was looking rather suspicious after choosing to vote Nogrod over Glirdan...so I would imagine that there would be a pretty good reason why the wolves would feel the need to kill her. Though I suppose they could also just be messing with our heads and just ended up getting lucky.

Too late to say more or look at anything now, but I should have a fairly decent chunk of time to participate tomorrow.

Loslote

04-13-2010, 11:54 PM

Seriously... Take the keyboard away from Agan!

Another long post. boils down to a lot of not much. I still think he want's everyone to get rid of their votes... I t just seems bad what if we Need them later? no one has "Extra" votes this time retractables are an excellent tool, for us and yes sadly for the wolves but with only two wolves left it's even better for us to have them.

1. And you said Agan was rude!

2. She's a she, not a he.

By the way While I'm writing this I have another tab going checking on whats going on real time. Shasta thinks Agan was dreamed... Well She May have been but how would we Know that? I think someone's trying to get me to look somewhere else as is Lottie. Now all three can't be evil but One may be

Um...no. This is just silly. And, not to be rude, but I for one don't really care where you look. You can go on a crusade to kill me for all I care.

Agan keeps talking about Cobbler appearing "innocent" to seers... I've never known this rule/idea. Seems to want us to not entirely trust our seer granted this point after Fea's lynching is moot it is still strange to advocate. Oh and real quick I'd like to point out 2 wolf votes maybe my logic Does work sometimes!:p

1. Then look at the list of rules. It's there.

2. A lot of people have two wolf votes by this point. It's not an idication of your own special logic; it's an indication that this village is awesome as a whole.

Mostly response to me. First off thanks for calling me Lazy, That was pretty cool of you. Second I take these games too seriously if I'm "Half Hearted it's because This time around I'm trying to have fun, which I am. Lastly uses retractable taking own advice good move.

Morsul...calm down. She's never played with you before and she's trying to get a feel for your playing style. It's not personal, but you're making it be.

That's why you keep it and not use it. Though it seems Sally used hers as well maybe have their pack-mates keep theirs while trying to get the rest of us to use ours?

Um, what?

At this point she's using a lot of 'Yeah I'm a wolf ha ha' lines in some of her posts too many for my comfort as Sally said wolves can hide behind these jokes and she's bee using them a lot.

That wasn't Sally, at least not as far as I know. I think it was Nog.

I'd like to point out Lottie has Agan Greeni Glirdan and Sally as the wolves Ok Greenie is wrong but the other two are right... So agan this is a very very Small point against you tiny (It won't be a vote maker don't worry.)

*cough*Agan is no longer one of my suspects*cough*

*cough*This point only makes sense if you make it two Days ago*cough*

249 rebukes Lottie... good show...

Ha! Now this I agree with. Although maybe just I read it with a British accent.

Suspects Inzil for listening to him... Another Argument I've had. Why do we bother listing reasons unless we expect to persuade anyone? Why am I doing this post? Sure I could look through say "Hey agan's cleared/guilty(let you know when I'm done)" Then everyone would say "where's your reasoning?" I read other peoples' analyses and like their reasons so I I take that was a reason to vote. I'm sorry about the way I do things.

1. HER. For listening to HER.

2. Not just listening; for listening blindly and not using his own logic.

This isn't only Agan's view but I find it all too common.

What isn't just Agan's view?

I really don't like the way Agan's going after people who haven't used their retractions seems to be an easy way to pick off people and have her dream scenario of only wolves having theirs left.

That isn't what she's doing at all. And if that were the case, why did she and Sally both dump theirs? :rolleyes:

Line she does something she condemns others for she take's nienna's word and changes suspicion. I'm Opportunistic Lazy a Horrible Person should be lynched right now and so what I voted for two wolves so what obviously I some horrible person.... (Sorry, Serenity NOW)

You. Are. Over. Reacting. Stop doing that - taking everything so personally. It's really rather annoying, and I'm not just talking about this game. You know what I mean.

Last Paragraph agains says she put Sally as supicious based only on what others said isn't that terrible thing to do Agan... "Do as I say not as I do?"

No. You aren't giving your own reasoning. She's listening rationally to what others say and taking that into account. There's a difference.

1 Am I'm really sleepy... Look I Can't find anything outside of some name calling I feel unfairly towards me I can't find anything Agan is cleared in my mind....

So you can't find anything, thus you'll drop it. Because you just made this post to fill up space. Because that's totally helpful. :rolleyes:

Nerwen Tomorrow... or later today whatever time it is...She's always under my radar

She's always under everyone's radar. Good choice to analyze next, though, I must admitt.

Nerwen

04-13-2010, 11:59 PM

Now, naturally we have no guarantee Greenie dreamt a wolf at all. However, since she stated suspicion of Nogrod yesterDay, and indeed voted him, and since Nogrod was starting to creep me out towards the end of yesterDay, I think he's worth looking at. Besides, he's been under my radar most of the game.

Nogrod, Day One

#33 (http://www.forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=626660&postcount=33)
Banter; is "uneasy" with Lottie:
For the Duchess surely goes into that infamous mode of "no bad person, even insane one, would do that kind of a thing" - like screaming "Go wolves!" on D1...

Comments: This post follows Fea's unexplained vote on Lottie– perhaps opportunistic? The mention of Poison Ivy-Nerwolf also seems perhaps a trifle insidious– like it's trying to create guilt-by-association. To be fair, though, the "Arkham Asylum" game must still be fresh in peoples minds, and Nogrod wasn't the only one to claim to find Lottie's songs questionable at this point– Zil and Nienna did too. (Fea, presumeably, didn't.)

#60 (http://www.forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=626716&postcount=60)
Ask for real names to be used; finds a post of Shasta's (not indicated) "unreadable"; says that Agan's comment about the Seer not being 100% reliable (because of the Cursed) is not helpful so early in the game and that she seems overly worried about her image.

–Jumps on Zil for saying wintywinty's vote should be scrutinized, finding it a typically wolfish statement.

–Dismisses Lottie's explanation that she wrote the songs before getting her role:It's not so much about when you wrote that piece of ambiguity, but what was your role when you decided it was a good way to start posting?

#85 (http://www.forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=626744&postcount=85)
Dismisses Zil's explanation for his use of "scrutiny", elaborates on why it's so suspicious– apparently because the vote cannot in itself reveal ww's role.

Comments: This is complete hair-splitting, and is in fact quite a weird reason to go after someone. As I said yesterDay (or the Day before, I forget) it could be a language-problem– i.e. Nogrod taking things too literally.

#99 (http://www.forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=626762&postcount=99)
Discusses rules and the retraction-issue, is perturbed by Lottie-wagon, though at the same time he does not find her at all innocent-looking.

Comments: Hmmn. Seems like he wants it both ways...

#108 (http://www.forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=626774&postcount=108)
Compares the people voting for Lottie (Fea, Lommy and Greenie at that point) to the retraction-dumpers (Sally and Aganzir), and wonders if it's just herd-mentality or something more.

Comments: Looking for reasons to suspect as many people as possible? Perhaps– mind you, both of those affairs were worth commenting on. He does exaggerate, saying "a band" of people had used their retrackies when only two had.

#115 (http://www.forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=626783&postcount=115)
Quotes Inzil's latest defence, but appears not to accept it... though he also says the affair is "running out of proportion". Says he now has an opinion on Zil, but does not state it.

Comments: Uh... *scratches head* Really, I don't know what to make of that post at all. What is he trying to say?

#119. Tells Skip how to highlight votes.

#128 (http://www.forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=626796&postcount=128)
Suspicion list. With the exception of Izzy (trusted) and Skip ("making a lot of sense") is non-committal about everyone. Now also concerned about the save-Lottie-wagon.

Comments: Okaay. This post is quite wolfy-looking– Nog's at pains to leave himself room either to suspect or not suspect virtually the entire village. Yes, it was Day One, but still...

#137 (http://www.forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=626806&postcount=137)
Suggests Fea and Lottie may be a cobbler and wolf testing each other out. Votes Fea (Fea 2), because though he suspects them both, he suspects her more.

Comments: *shrugs* Perfectly reasonable vote-post. Nothing to say about it.

General Remarks: Well, while #128 is the only single post I'd call definitely furry-looking, from Nog's overall Day One posting I shouldn't be that *surprised* if he turns out a wolf. I won't put it stronger than that– later Days may give a different picture. Also, I haven't yet looked at what the known wolves said about him– as I recall, not much.

I have to go now, but when I come back I'll look at Nogrod on Days 2 and 3 and at Sallywolf and Glirwolf's relations with him, if no-one has in the meantime.

EDIT:X'd with a host.

Loslote

04-14-2010, 12:14 AM

wintywinty

04-14-2010, 01:06 AM

Hello all, I just wanted to apologize for missing all of yesterday and not being able to vote, as I was extremely busy, and I did not have the opportunity to reach a computer. I will vote today, and hopefully contribute to the discussion more.

Legate of Amon Lanc

04-14-2010, 01:25 AM

Okay, so first, the Seer thing is pretty unfortunate especially at the time like this, as I would have expected this Day to be a really good one for a Seer to reveal (if he had something interesting to say), as that's been quite a long time no Seer around (usually, on Day 2 or 3 at most somebody appears claiming to be a Seer. And especially in this game I was quite happy at the prospect of it happening today, as if such a Seer was an impostor, he'd basically sacrifice himself, with such a low amount of Wolves remaining). Well, okay, but on the positive note, we still have lynched a Wolf yesterDay and now we can look for all the possible evidence related to voting bandwaggons etc.

Greenie kill first, though, I don't know if we can assume that the Wolves expected anything from her, on the other hand, she was suspected quite well too, so maybe there had to be a reason to kill her other than a no-trace kill. On the third hand again, most importantly I think we should try to think of Greenie's death in the light of the fact that there are two Wolves who just lost two of their packmates consequently in two Days, have no Cobbler, and it's quite possible some of them are suspected considerably. Now when we look back at the previous Night's kill, it's quite easy to see why a no-trace kill was chosen, they had to just hope that Glirdan will be forgotten next Day and so probably did not want to make any move which could either confirm it or look like a bluff. This time, maybe they wanted to cover the track completely - possibility A - but let's not rule out possibility B, that they wanted to stir thoughts in the village in order to produce new suspects out of the village's own initiative (thus having their hands clean in bringing them up), and that might be for instance framing Nogrod - or Lottie, for that matter, who still hasn't been targeted (but that thing just wouldn't work because there's been no counterevidence for her being the Shiriff, so it does not make sense for anyone to disbelieve her). For that matter, I think framing Nogrod is a possibility, even though I am not saying some of the things - as noted by Nerwen, like that "free to suspect anyone" post on Day 1 - could not point to his guilt.

There was something I wanted to say in regards to Lottie - oh yes, this. Just to note, I think the Wolves might be keeping her around partially also because of the fact that she seems to raise suspicion for lot of people, and especially if it's wrong, they might be thinking that she might serve to make some confusion in the village (influence other people with wrong assumptions etc.) However, of course, if they suspected Greenie was the Seer, then it is perfectly explainable why they didn't target Lottie even though she's a known innocent (and thus at least a hindrance in the voting process as the village's numbers get thinner). If there was anything that could lead the Wolves to think that way, it would be at most that Greenie's remark "you are no Seer", or something, which in the context was maybe a bit out-of-the-blue, but not necessarily sticking out so much (however, now on the other hand, thinking about it, I think I have sort of noticed it back then when she was saying it, even though I didn't pay attention to it - but then it might be likely that if some Wolf was intentionally looking for Seer hints, he might have noticed it. So maybe it raises the probability of the Wolves actually knowing whom they are killing?). Or then we are back again at the possibility of a paranoid Wolfgrod killing her because there was simply no other way. But all in all it really depends on whether the WWs suspected she was the Seer or not.

As for Greenie's dreams, I really am not able to collect any definitely proven hints. It is also possible, however, that she has dreamed of some of the people who have died, which might happen. What she says about Nogrod does not seem to me necessarily like dreaming about him - and I have at least seen that she really tends to suspect him in many games (and he suspects her - which didn't happen that much here, but that does not say anything, it would've been more telling if it was the other way around). I think Greenie was in general rather careful in announcing what she possibly knew about people, which in this way is a pity, but what can we do.

Otherwise, I would join what's been said here:

I do have an addendum, though. I think Agan was dreamed, but I don't think it was until Day 2. This might be slightly meta (and if so, feel free to smack me) but I think Skip is new enough that Greenie might have waited to see if he was readable before dreaming him.
That makes sense in comparison to what I have read and I can very well imagine Greenie dreaming of Skip on Day 1. That sounds actually the most plausible of all things I can think of, given that she was also absolutely happy to see him playing etc, so I assume she could have dreamed him.

I guess that's it. But otherwise:
I mentioned yesterDay that Glirdan's death could shed light on many things, and knowing he was a wolf, I think it'll be a very good idea to look at his and others' posts from earlier Days along with yesterDay's voting. With the votes....after losing one wolf, I would think the other two wouldn't be so ready to sacrifice another, so I would look at those who were hesitant and perhaps discouraging of the bandwagon. Of course, it'd also be very easy for a wolf to hide within that bandwagon, and I'm sure at least one is in there. Those who didn't vote until later when it was evident Glirdan was a lost cause would probably look the worst, but then again we must keep in mind time zones/availability which could make the timing of the votes not so valid.
Very good "methodical" thoughts, so to say, and that said, off to re-check some of my theories in the light of Glirdan's death, and also re-check yesterDay's voting. Will be back in a while with a few comments to the current situation.

Legate of Amon Lanc

04-14-2010, 02:14 AM

So, after looking again through the thread yesterDay and the Day before that a bit too, some comments.

People I believe more innocent now related to what they said or whatnot in relation to Glirdan: Lommy (remarked about his possible guilt early in the Day because of ), Nienna (was among the first yesterDay to speak and she mentioned that Glirdan actually likely is a Wolf), Morsul (the same, even more strongly), Brinn (generally she said and voted in a few ways that make it seem genuine for her to be against the Wolves, and not just acting or something). The question is, how much were the Wolves willing to get rid of Glirdan yesterDay, there's a slight possibility that they have been decided from the beginning that he's gone and let him be. But in some way I find it more likely that they would not just give up and encourage his lynch strongly to make themselves look innocent. I think some stumbling in the middle is more expectable.

For that matter, my suspicion of Inzil with the theory that if Glirdan is a Wolf, Inzil might be a packmate with interesting way of choosing sides would of course work now. The curious thing however is that Inzil did something again which would be so clumsy that I can't believe he would do that - starting yesterDay with defending Glirdan, while he voted him the Day before. For an innocent, this behavior would make far more sense than for a Wolf. And given now that sally and Glirdan were both guilty, sally's remark "Inzil is innocent, I just know that" seems rather more unlikely to make if Inzil was another packmate of theirs - simply putting too much at risk.

So I am not sure right now what to think of Inzil. Anyway, as for what I have said about Greenie possibly dreaming about skip, his yesterDay's voting was on the other hand very suspicious - but then again, I have read this:

Glirdan – He came after Sally early, long before it became clear that either one of these two would die. I believe Glirdan proactively participating in lynching Sally is a sign of his innocence although not proof. At this point only a very shrewd wolf would actively go after a fellow wolf, because, let’s face it, a wolf lynched is a step towards a village victory, and an innocent lynched is a step away from that, there’s no getting around that simple fact. A wolf jumping on the bandwagon, yes why not, but actively working to make that bandwagon happen, I doubt it. I could be wrong and maybe that’s everyday business in the ww-world, but to me that feels like too much of a gamble for uncertain profits. For the moment Glirdan has redeemed himself.

I think this might be a very innocent explanation of why skip trusted Glirdan, and so in the end I am ready to accept him as innocent, given the other things like the probability that Greenie dreamed of him. But all in all, otherwise, things start getting rather dark. That means I probably have to look at the rest of the people whom I have not been looking very much at this far - like Shasta, Mira etc. I am also growing slight paranogroid, but... well.

Thinlómien

04-14-2010, 03:28 AM

Here. Glad to see Glirdan gone and proven a wolf, but sorry to see poor little Greenie gone. I have skimmed through toDay's posts and agree with those who suspect Nogrod. Why? Because if Greenie hadn't spotted a wolf and made them nervous by that, I doubt they'd have killed her since assuming they're assuming that Lottie was protected by the ranger on Night3, they would now have had their chance of getting rid of the known innocent. And, as somebody said, Greenie would've been a lynch candidate toDay probably, so they must've had the real reason to kill her.

This all leads me to believe she dreamt of Nogrod and the wolves noticed it (or she didn't but the wolves still thought she did) and that's why I did. Nog's downplaying of her suspicion yesterDay ("she always suspects me") would support this theory (although I must admit I started the talk about her always suspecting him). Another possibility is that she dreamt of (or seemd to have dreamt of) Shastawolf, but I can't say whether that's a plausible theory before I've checked some facts.

It's always such a pity when the seer dies without being able to come out. Well, we just have to live with it and try to find out her dreams - and on the positive side, we have lynched two wolves and a cobbler in three Days. Not bad!

Now I'm off to find some quotes to reply...

PS. Legate, you have exactly 5000 posts! :cool:

Thinlómien

04-14-2010, 04:12 AM

Points from yesterDay after I went to sleep

Nogrod must be guilty since he has Sauron on his yard. :p Now I remember that when I was reading the happenings overNight I was thinking the remaining wolves must be Nogrod/Nerwen/Aganzir and Skip. I don't remember why I thought so, and my opinions are altered/altering, but thought to mention that.

It would be incredibly funny of Zil was a wolf. Wolves on the tops of suspicion lists all the time. :D But to be honest, Zil does make me suspicious: he thinks so differently all the time, he's been so wrong about things, it really doesn't seem very innocent anymore. On the other hand, the village has had three or four heavy suspects this far, and two of them have been wolves, so we might have Zil here as the quota innocent who just seems darn suspicious...

Points from toDay

As for Zil and Lottie's very helpful (thanks!) Greenie quotes, I'd think she dreamt of

Night1 by Day1 posts: innocent Agan (?) (I think she must've mentioned the innocent she found in case she gets extremely unlucky and gets killed. The other option, which I actually find more likely - now that I think of it - given her flip-flopping on Agan later on is that she dreamt of someone who hadn't appeared yet when she posted and thus she had no excuse to mention him/her. I will certainly do some rereading toDay so I can check who posted only after her and compare that with her Day2 list of people...)

Night2 by Day2 posts: innocent Mira ("feels innocent though I disagree with her a lot") or wolf-Shasta (she starts suspecting him) or with bad luck innocent Lottie or innocent Legate ("seems innocentish this far") or innocent Skip ("seems maybe the most innocentish at this point (discounting Lottie and myself, of course), makes sense and feels genuine") or innocent me ("has dropped the mysterious attitude and feels more or less like her innocent self") or innocent Brinn ("I'm leaning towards thinking her innocent. Her reactions seem genuine to me"). If she dreamt of Skip, it feels likely she also dreamt of Fea, Boro, Lottie or wolf Shasta. Why? Because she singled Skip out as the most innocent, which would be a weird thing for a seer to do if she had two known innocents. If looking at phrasings as clues to separating dreams from other stuff, Mira and I "feel" innocent while Legate and Skip "seem" innocent, and Skip and Brinn seem "genuine". This would make me think that if she had two known innocents, it would be those to whom she refers by seeming (seeming vs seer) or those she singles out by the word "genuine".

Night3 by Day3 posts: I doubt she'd have incriminated her known innocents ways of interacting with Sally. Thus I would conclude her known innocents are among those she cathegorised "good" or had no material of, aka Nienna, Legate, Winty, Brinn, Skip and Mira, and she could very well have dreamt of a Wolfgrod.

I understand I can't make a whole picture of her dreams without really checking who hadn't posted before she voted on Day1. I will do that after finishing this post, but now I think the most believable dream chain would be something like Boro - Skip - Nog. I remember Boro posted only after her on Day1 and he'd be a believable Night1 pick for almost any seer, Greenie having no more than one known innocent on Day2 would explain her phrasing about Skippy and her dreaming of Nog would explain her confident yet slightly grasping-at-straws seeming attack on Nog on Day3.

The only thing I'm wondering about is that whether she'd have come out with one known wolf. I thought this for a while and concluded no. She was suspected so much that she would've felt pretty safe from Night kills and if my (slightly far-fetched but not bad) specution is correct and she only had one known innocent, I think she would've wanted to have at least one more dream. Alas that it backfired! *feels like Legolas or some other funny LotR character who says "alas!" all the time* :D

Lottie, hold your horses! Now new crusades, darling, please. I'm not cliaming Morsul's innocent but I'm sensing another full frontal attack and not sure if that's good...

Thinlómien

04-14-2010, 04:18 AM

Now I'm off to have a slight pause from ww and then I'm coming back and start working.

We have quite a lot of untouched evidence. I'm going to do the ambitious thing: check all Sally and especially Glirdan's interactions with all the people alive.

Since I will skim through all of this thread (eurgh) I will also have a look at people who could've been Greenie's Night1 dream and at Izzy's suspects in case she was killed for looking like the seer (just if anything catches my eye).

Nerwen

04-14-2010, 05:08 AM

#286. "I'm here" and IC banter.

#326 (http://www.forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=627057&postcount=326)
Says Lottie is "running amok"; suspects are "naturally annoyed, whatever their role". Says there have been "interesting points" raised (doesn't specify).

#333. Conveys Agan's intention to vote for Zil (Agan's connection had died).

#336 (http://www.forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=627067&postcount=336)
Likes the points raised against Sally, Zil, and "to a lesser extent") Glirdy and Brinn (whatever those were). Thinks well of Agan, Greenie, Skip and Izzy.
Comments: And that really is all he said... hardly anything to summarise.

343 (http://www.forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=627074&postcount=343)
Notes as "interesting" (one word comment) a post where Glirdan seemingly copied wintywinty's wording. Glirdan at #409 (http://www.forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=627145&postcount=409) seems to overreact to this.

#333.
Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

Inzil: Not a wolf. Plain and simple. Don't ask me how I know, I just do.

Brinniel: No worries from her either.

More interesting details pouring out?
Comments: Probably nothing here... but that is a rather odd thing to say, just by itself, with no indication what he thinks of Sally at this point. If Sallywolf *had* indeed planned to impersonate the Seer, this could be read as prompting her to reveal, or at least drawing attention to her hints for other players' benefit.

#364 (http://www.forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=627096&postcount=364)
Says he is disappointed by his own lack of input, blames it on tiredness.

As you Lottie mentioned it, I suddenly remembered this (I was coming convinced that she is innocent - Greenie that is - just becasue I knew she had a tough day on D1 and I could sympathise with her haste and tiredness toDay coming to the thread such late). But it could actually fit.
Originally Posted by Sally
Greenie: I see Lottie's case against her but I legitimately refuse to follow Lottie.
This, I assume, refers to Lottie's theory that Greenie and Sally were packmates.

#378 (http://www.forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=627112&postcount=378)
Doesn't like Mira and finds her vote on wintywinty too easy, likewise Shasta's "rambling over whether to lynch Morsul or winty". Reminds everyone that Morsul's playing style always gets him suspected and often lynched, and that winty is just a newbie; believes winty's comment about Brinn was innocent.

Comments: Reasonable... unless of course he does turn out to be a wolf, in which case Morsul or wintywinty could be his packmate.

#388 (http://www.forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=627122&postcount=388)
Wonders if Sally is guilty, since she seems ready to see any comment as a threat. Asks her if she's "resigning already". Approves Lottie's bringing forward an alternative candidate (Glirdy) and disagrees with Sally that Lottie's plan has "gaping holes".

Comments: This post may have helped get Sally lynched: Nienna (##391 (http://www.forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=627125&postcount=391) appears quite impressed by it, and as we know she went on to give Sally her death-blow.

#390 (http://www.forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=627124&postcount=390)
Votes Sally (Sally 5). Says he had considered voting Glirdan, but found him less suspicious than Sally.

General Comments: Meh... Can't really tell either way– he's given so little to go on. No wonder he's been under the radar! This could be Nogwolf testing the wind, then resigning himself to losing a comrade and taking a while to decide which one to vote for– or innocent Nogrod without time and/or energy to contribute much. (Note though, that he's posted quite a lot, it's just that most of it lacks substance.) Did play a real, if small, part in getting Sally lynched, but some of his other posts seem off.

EDIT:X'd with two Lommies.

Nogrod

04-14-2010, 05:08 AM

(~~~) *grin appearing*

Uh-oh... This doesn't make any sense.

I mean really. There was that "you are no seer" -thing, but that's basically the only thing one could say that would hint towards her being the seer. So the wolves got really lucky this time. But getting lucky doesn't explain why they chose her. For some actual reason or just to confuse us?

Okay. One scenario: like someone said already, maybe they were taking even more heat than we know? Making a totally odd kill would keep us going around the subject for quite a while - and thus we might let our main suspicions from yesterDay to recede?

Well I'm not impressed by that interpretation but at the moment I can't think of a better one.

Btw. I do appreciate the effort of trying to figure out whom she dreamt of but as you can see, Greenie was clearly intentionally ambiguous about her knowledge... to a point we have no way of "knowing" anything from her posting (we should read her closely and try to form some opinions of them to be sure but I'm afraid that we can't quite trust those interpretations fully). It's always a bit unfair to speak bad of the dead, but I really think she should have been a tad more forthcoming with her knowledge. Maybe she felt she was safe, but going to N4 without giving even one clear hint is a little reckless.

And really, toying with a scenario. If I was a wolf and she had dreamt of me wouldn't she have said that openly? She would have gotten at least one more dream and the wolves would be down to one after you lynched me toDay. Also she could have thus given us all the known innocents (or even the last wolf!) she had clear and openly and not leave us into this interpretation-game over them.

I do think Greenie is smart enough to have gathered that.

Okay. I have to run now but I'll be back in the evening (RL).

(~~~) *grin vanishing*

Thinlómien

04-14-2010, 05:32 AM

Massive disagreement with Nogrod:

1) Greenie's smart, but because she was suspected so much and she hadn't posted anything obviously seerish (as we have noticed when trying to analyse her dreams), I think she would've dared not to come out, especially if she had lost one dream (dreamt of someone who died) at some point, which is an option we have to keep in mind.

2) Looking at a seer's posts is never a bad thing. You may be pessimistic (or a wolf), but I'm not. I have correctly interpreted a dead seer's dreams before and Greenie is just a tad more difficult challenge. You of all people should remember this (remember the last game you modded?). There's no way for us to find the absolute truth about Greenie's dreams, but we can make good guesses which can help us in our suspicions. A bit the same way a wolf's fellow wolves can't be absolutely logically found out from his/her posts but we can make good guesses to one way or another... Besides, currently we could even afford to be misguided for a Day or two and people tend to rethink things in the light of new events. :p

Morsul the Dark

04-14-2010, 05:54 AM

Lottie
1. And you said Agan was rude!

Should have added a smilie I meant it jokingly I didn't call her lazy. However point taken I apologize.

Again I keep saying it because I'm excited I never list reasons why I voted the way I did? I did list them. I found Sally suspicious and after reading I believe your analysis it seemed confirmed. I voted Glirdan because of Sally's post it made NO sense any other way for me. and Winty voted because of a first post vote followed by "Day 1 who cares"

Nerwen

04-14-2010, 06:35 AM

One more thing I just realized with Morsul:

He keeps proclaiming that he's successfully voted for two wolves in two consecutive Days. Okay. That's lovely.

How, exactly, would you know who to vote? You don't post anything to tell us. We are left to assume you know this because you are part of the pack. So maybe you don't want to emphasize that quite as much as you are. Just sayin'. ;)

Mmn. I think it fair to say that Morsul is doing *remarkably* well for someone who's scarcely been around... to the point where he bears looking at.
However, you are exaggerating a bit there, Lottie: in fact he put forward quite serviceable reasons of his own for voting Glirdan here. (http://www.forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=627241&postcount=451)

As for Nogrod, I am seriously considering voting him after his last post (#587). "Working out the dead Seer's dreams? What a waste of time!" :rolleyes:

But I haven't done Day 3 yet, so I'll just have to do my best not to let it bias my judgement.

Morsul the Dark

04-14-2010, 06:43 AM

Thanks Nerwen... But I've fallen for your flattery before *glares* I'm not this time:p

Morsul the Dark

04-14-2010, 06:47 AM

... It really couldn't be as easy as this... Am I the only one noticing both ourwolves are Tea Party guests?... Mira's the last of the party... it couldn't be that easy though.

This post is pretty much joking

Morsul the Dark

04-14-2010, 06:56 AM

1 Seer: chooses 1 person a Night and finds out their role.

It doesn't say sees "Innocent or Wolf" it says "Their ROLE" Why wouldn't we trust a seers dream Agan... Sorry I'm back on that because I just went through the rules it was bugging me.

and Lottie I feel a challenge there... a wolf saying "I'm beyond suspicion come get me. Of course with no counter reveal I suppose I'll have to trust you.

Lastly I voted first for both wolves... If I knew they would get the most votes for the day I'd be A) psychic and B) insane for offering them up for slaughter.

Still looking at Nerwen.

skip spence

04-14-2010, 07:03 AM

Just checking in briefly without having read anything in detail but Morsul, this is a very incriminating statement. A slip of the tongue perhaps, but one that could cost you your head.

Lastly I voted first for both wolves... If I knew they would get the most votes for the day I'd be A) psychic and B) insane for offering them up for slaughter.

Morsul the Dark

04-14-2010, 07:06 AM

and if it does all I can say is we as a village had a good run figures We'd lynch an innocent eventually...

Thinlómien

04-14-2010, 07:20 AM

Gotta run now, megalysis still in process (I'm on page 7)... I'll be back in about 4½ hours and will be completing my analysis then.

Morsul is confusing...

Morsul the Dark

04-14-2010, 07:21 AM

Painting my kitchen today so no time.

++Shasta

ME: So Feas was a cobbler yay us.
Shasta: Something that bothers me is that Lottie has been pouncing on her four suspects for "acting too innocent", but misses this completely. Lottie, I realize you're a known innocent, but really? Just because you think you've spotted all four wolves in the first day doesn't mean you stop looking at anyone else and focus solely on those four. For example, several of the points in your "Sal-alysis" are pretty clearly grasping at straws.
grasping at straws this isn't?

Like I said... day 2 easy lynch. With Morsul being opportunistic and Winty being bandwaggonish (going to get reasons for your votes from your packmates tonight, winty?), it's kind of hard to choose, but...
++Morsul

Gave my reasons.

473 and 474 backpeddles pretty quick

534 votes greenie...

Have fun! I need a WW break so I probably won't be back before DL(Sometimes you have to put the computer down.)

Shastanis Althreduin

04-14-2010, 08:43 AM

Painting my kitchen today so no time.

++Shasta

grasping at straws this isn't?

Gave my reasons.

473 and 474 backpeddles pretty quick

534 votes greenie...

Have fun! I need a WW break so I probably won't be back before DL(Sometimes you have to put the computer down.)

1. No, it wasn't. You pretty clearly did the same thing Lottie was criticizing others for.

2. It doesn't follow that I'm a wolf just because I voted for the seer - I honestly suspected Greenie for several, easily-documented reasons.

And what's this about backpedaling? :rolleyes:

I'm between classes right now, but I should have that Nog-alysis up in a few hours.

Shastanis Althreduin

04-14-2010, 08:46 AM

I did have time to look up #473 and #474, though (the posts that Morsul mentions), and all I have to say about that is, misrepresentation by omission, much? Take a look at #494 and get back to me, Morsul.

Honestly I almost want to vote him for sheer annoyance, but... that's how he plays every game. However, Lommy did put forward that theory about a Shasta-wolf... it makes one wonder.

Brinniel

04-14-2010, 09:02 AM

Day 1

none

Day 2

Nogrod – Usually, at this point of the game, I'm convinced he's a wolf. This far I guess he's never been one when we've played together. So now I'm wondering if I should get worried as I've found no reason to suspect him...

Day 3

Nogrod

Sally – the Dormouse
I never get her. First I thought she was more careful than normally (I think someone mentioned that early on the Day and that made me look at her that way) but now I'm more or less without an opinion. She's one of the "followers" though: retrackies & the newest "against Lottie band-wagon"...

Carefully voices some suspicion on her yet flip-flops nicely. The three dots in the end creep me out, like the ”I never get her” in the beginning. He's kind of – how to say it – decisively undecisive. Looks rather wolf-on-wolf, though could be genuine.

I think there are fair points raised against Sally and Inzil, and to a lesser degree on Glirdy and Brinn.

Could go either way, really.

++ Sally

I thought for a moment of joining Lottie's Glirdy-wagon just to make sure there is a real choice, but then I realised I'm not in that comfort-zone where I could say that they are as suspicious and it's just the same which one we lynch. I do suspect Glirdy, but I do think we have better chances of getting a wolf with Sally. Especially looking at her latest posting...

I don't like the look of this. Looks like an opportunistic wolf-on-wolf vote.

bad:
Nogrod
Glirdan

I'd prefer voting Glirdan or Nogrod toDay. Glirdan's death, as has been mentioned, would shed light to many things, and his interactions with Sally were very fishy. Nogrod's interactions with Sally looked bad too, and I don't like how he's been slipping under pretty much everyone's radar, being nice and invisible yet contributing. I could also vote Shasta or Inzil, but would prefer one of the earlier two.

++ Nogrod

Now I'm not sure if this is a throwaway, I suppose one could see it as such, but I just feel I should stir the pot a bit. I find Nogrod very suspicious, he's being too agreeable and nudging things from the background, and his interactions with Sally seemed quite wolf-on-wolf to me.

I do think the possibility of a Nogwolf is realistic. For one thing, I wouldn't be at all surprised that Greenie would choose to dream Nogrod, especially seeing the single comment she wrote about him before Day 3. And again, I don't see why the wolves would've chosen to kill her, unless they had a reason to suspect she was the seer. Her comments on Nogrod are the only ones that look potentially seerish...everything else she says seems a bit too vague. The question is would a Nogwolf kill Greenie knowing that if she is the seer it might put him in the spotlight? At this point, I think so. With half the team and their cobbler down, the wolves aren't exactly in a good position and couldn't afford a seer reveal. And a seer reveal could've been quite likely toDay considering Greenie might've been a heavy suspect after yesterDay. Looking suspicious is better than becoming a known wolf. If Nogrod is a wolf, it's best to keep in mind he would've been well aware that killing her would make him look suspicious if she did turn out as the seer, so I imagine that a Nogwolf would come into toDay prepared to defend himself.

Now it could just be that Greenie was killed at random, a lucky guess from the wolves that also frames an innocent Nogrod. But I still have trouble believing that simply because I wouldn't understand why the wolves would kill someone who had the possibility of getting lynched toDay unless they had reason to believe she need to be eliminated.

Inziladun

04-14-2010, 09:06 AM

Greenie kill first, though, I don't know if we can assume that the Wolves expected anything from her, on the other hand, she was suspected quite well too, so maybe there had to be a reason to kill her other than a no-trace kill.

If there was anything that could lead the Wolves to think that way, it would be at most that Greenie's remark "you are no Seer", or something

I don't think that remark by Greenie by itself was necessarily it. Others made the same point, including me.

As for Greenie's dreams, I really am not able to collect any definitely proven hints. It is also possible, however, that she has dreamed of some of the people who have died, which might happen. What she says about Nogrod does not seem to me necessarily like dreaming about him - and I have at least seen that she really tends to suspect him in many games (and he suspects her - which didn't happen that much here, but that does not say anything, it would've been more telling if it was the other way around). I think Greenie was in general rather careful in announcing what she possibly knew about people, which in this way is a pity, but what can we do.

It seems perfectly reasonable to me that Greenie would have dreamed of Nog (or Lommy), for obvious reasons. Actually, if she was going to dream of Nog, I would have expected it to come on Night 1. A vote for Nog on Day 1 would not have been so surprising from her. But coming as it did on Day 3, I'd be inclined to think there might be more behind it. Still could be a frame-up, though.

It would be incredibly funny of Zil was a wolf. Wolves on the tops of suspicion lists all the time. :D But to be honest, Zil does make me suspicious: he thinks so differently all the time, he's been so wrong about things, it really doesn't seem very innocent anymore. On the other hand, the village has had three or four heavy suspects this far, and two of them have been wolves, so we might have Zil here as the quota innocent who just seems darn suspicious...

Thinks differently? I do try. ;)

And really, toying with a scenario. If I was a wolf and she had dreamt of me wouldn't she have said that openly? She would have gotten at least one more dream and the wolves would be down to one after you lynched me toDay. Also she could have thus given us all the known innocents (or even the last wolf!) she had clear and openly and not leave us into this interpretation-game over them.

When Greenie gave her vote for you, it wasn't known yet that Glirdan was certainly a wolf, which, if she knew you were one, would mean there were two left. So in Greenie's eyes, maybe there was still enough uncertainty that she wanted to stay incognito for the time being.

Nerwen

04-14-2010, 10:01 AM

#486 (http://www.forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=627284&postcount=486)
Examines "Glirdy-wagon", wondering "were the wolves trying to save Sally or are the wolves having a nightmarish start to the game?" Looks at the implications for Glirdan-voters in the scenarios that Glirdan was guilty and that he was innocent. If innocent, all three would look bad; if guilty, Lommy would look good but Skip and Inzil not so much, especially Zil.

#488. Clarifies a sentence in previous post.

#490 (http://www.forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=627289&postcount=490)
Looks at "those who walked their own paths" by not voting the favourites (Greenie, Agan, Shasta and Mira.) Finds all their votes somewhat suspicious and "would bet a lot for there being a wolf in this group - like in the group of Glirdy-voters".

#491 (http://www.forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=627291&postcount=491)
Looks at the Sally-voters. His own vote, Brinn's, Legate's and winty's look good; mine and Morsul's could go either way; Glirdy's was just self-preservation "whatever his role"; no comment on Nienna.

Comments: What's wrong with this post? Nothing– except that eight people voted Sally. How often has there not been a wolf in a bandwagon that big? And yet, he's "betting" on there being wolves only in the other, smaller groups.

#514.Announces he's back.

#521 (http://www.forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=627341&postcount=521)
Discusses Nienna, whose vote sealed Sally's fateNow if Glirdan is innocent that looks quite good (which doeasn't mean Nienna couldn't have done it as a wolf) but if Glirdy is a wolf it tells us nothing.

–Finds Skip's defence of Glirdan "interesting", but only from the point of view that a Skipwolf would be afraid of having Glirdan lynched and shown to be innocent, thus exposing Skipwolf's evil intentions in voting him.

Comments: The first point is fine, though it's odd that the voter who did most to kill the wolf is the one he seems to find least innocent. The other is just weird– really contorted reasoning. Why couldn't they both be wolves? Isn't that the first thing that springs to mind? (He does mention that possibility a bit later, but only in passing.)

#525 (http://www.forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=627347&postcount=525)
Responding to Agan, says that Greenie's suspicion of him is probably just due to her desire to be original, or because she read his comments to Sally "in some idiosyncratic fashion", or because he has been "a little less in the frontline this time", or because "in the end she has not played that many games with me". Doesn't suspect her much, but questions her shifting attitude to Glirdan. Is suddenly talking about Glirdan as though he knows he's a wolf– however, this is probably just for the sake of the argument, though he doesn't state that.

–Agrees with Zil that he'd find him suspicious whether Glirdan was innocent or guilty.

Comments: Naturally, anyone would want to defend himself when another player expresses strong suspicion– yet this way of smoothly explaining away Greenie's attack to a third party does look more than a bit sinister in the light of her role.

#529 (http://www.forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=627352&postcount=529)Praises Shasta for spotting an odd similarity in the wording of Agan and Legate's vote-posts: There is at least the shared kind of lazyness "you all know he is suspicious so I'll just vote him for it and not bother to make my points against him".

#539 (http://www.forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=627365&postcount=539)
Votes Glirdan (Glirdan 4) but is not happy with this, pointing out that Sally and Glirdan's early bantering was just IC and that Glirdan tends to be a suspicion magnet. Says it would be useful to know his alignment however. Says Innocent!Glirdan would make Lommy, Zil and Skip look bad, while Wolf!Glirdan would make Shasta, Mira, Greenie and Agan look bad.

#541 (http://www.forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=627369&postcount=541)
"Undecided" about Mira, finds Greenie "innocentish".

General Comments: well, he doesn't come out of it looking nearly as bad as Glirdan did when I analysed him– but on the whole I'd say he's "leaning furry".

EDIT:X'd since Morsul at #597.
EDIT2:word left out.

Mirandir

04-14-2010, 10:11 AM

Hey guys sorry for not being around yesterDay. Finals week got a little more ridiculous than I though (ie I got fired from my job for bulls**t reasons). Unfortunately, my participation today won't be much better since I'll be in a car with my parents for the majority of it. :o

Before I take off though, I really don't like the way Morsul looks today. Given, I haven't actually read all that closely yet, but he's talked more toDay than he has the entire game. That to me is suspicious.

Hopefully when I get home tonight I'll be able to actually back that statement up.

Brinniel

04-14-2010, 10:59 AM

winty

Day 1

He very well could be simply a confused innocent or a really smart wolfywolfy....Currently I'm inclined to believe the first.

Day 2

Mind explaining those? Because they are rather vague and it just seems to me like you're trying to get by on the tailcoats of others, which happens to be a very Wolfish tactic by the by.

This is really interesting point. Going back quickly (and I mean I skimmed it) I could not find a single person who stated that Brinn is a strong player, and if it was said, it was said well after his vote. Where is he getting all this information? His fellow Wolfies??

winty has me at a crossroads. He could very well be a bewildered newbie, or he could be a really clever newbie-wolf with his packmates giving him hints at Night.

Nerwen

Day 1

And Nerwen's sigh threw me off there too...A sigh of exasperation. Perhaps either because she is exasperated with the newbie thing or perhaps a sigh of exasperation of her fellow packmate?

Seemed a little too overprotective of winty initially, but that could easily have been her being exasperated with the newbie.

Nogrod

Day 1

For some reason I never suspect this guy....Maybe it's just because he always comes across as the level-headed one among us (which is saying something this time around ) or maybe it's just a charm he has....Although his vote for Fea has me a little worried. Voting for her simply for initiating the voting for Lottie? What reason is that? The bandwagon for Lottie (at least the voting anyway) did not start until well AFTER she had voted.....Hmmm....

Mira

Day 1

I have no read of my fellow tea patron

Day 2

Anybody else worried about Mira and Nerwen? They have been relatively quiet this game, although Mira is a little more worrisome then Nerwen as the latter has been making some great contributions to the game. I'd love to hear more from both, but more so Mira.

This feels too much like a bandwagon....albeit, it is with a known innocent. However, it is quite plausible, especially with her lack of reasoning, that she is a Wolf is Mira clothing. Will have to see what she has said since this to get a better read off her.

Mira has made my eyebrows rise after reading those last few posts of hers.

Aganzir

Day 1

Giving a pass to her as she hasn't played in a year and I don't want to see her go just yet and has also been making some wonderful contributions to the game.

Day 2

This seems a little overly defensive to me...but as it is in response to Lottie who has been hounding everyone with biased reasoning, it could very well be that Agan is simply exasperated.

Inziladun

Day 1

No read on His Grace

Shasta

Day 1

His vote for Greenie came out of nowhere and looks to me as if it is a Wolf trying to perhaps save one of his own from being lynched. Yet would a Wolf be so bold?

++Shasta

Yes, this will probably end up being a throw-away vote, but I actually do find him a little suspicious. His vote for Greenie came out of absolutely nowhere and really had no substantial backing to it.

Legate

Day 1

Has definitely been one of the few people talking sense all Day. Yet his vote for Lottie has me a little perplexed. He stated that he did not like all the bandwagon votes and suspicions for her yet he himself later voted her? True he had stated suspicions of her for awhile, but his vote almost seems as if he's making it to ensure her being lynched....Hmmmm....

Legate is starting to stand out to me. He's making concise arguments, yes, but some of the points he is bringing up (like the one mentioned above) are things that would be fairly obvious to all of us with the exception of our new players. So why point it out?

Day 2

The reasoning for his vote is clear and respectable, but the overall tone seems a little too defensive.

Morsul

Day 1

Has seemed very Morsul like....which bugs me....Yet last time I voted him, he ended up being the Hunter and he Hunter killed me....So I think I'm going to leave him be for the time being.

Nienna

Day 1

Seems to be flying under the radar....perhaps a little too much, at least for my liking. Wolvish tactic to stay clear perhaps?

Lommy

Day 1

I have no read on her.

Brinniel

Day 1

Her posts all well thought out and full of substance.

----

On Day 2, he started with putting Legate and Sally as suspicious. That makes Legate look better since I doubt he'd list two wolves there. He later lists Mira and winty as possible suspects. Not sure about Mira, but the way he comments on winty makes it seem like he's preparing himself to join a winty bandwagon if that were to happen on a later Day. He voted Shasta on Day 1...since it was a throwaway, it could be wolf-on-wolf, but I don't know how likely that actually is.

I should go through Sally's comments as well, but I'm running out of time and would like to look at yesterDay first.

Mirandir

04-14-2010, 11:51 AM

Brinniel

04-14-2010, 11:52 AM

Those hesitant about a Glirdan lynch:

Inziladun

I guess it's possible. And now that I think of it, if Glirdan had been lynched and he was a wolf, Sally could be in some pretty good graces right now, even without a false Seer-reveal.
Still, I don't know that it's all that likely Glirdan is a wolf.

Nerwen (bordering on wishy-washy)

Might well be. But again, if her cry of "Glirdan's a wolf!" was meant to be the start of her "reveal", I have to wonder why she left it so late.

Did she expect more people to pick up on her Seer-hints than was in fact the case?

skip

He came after Sally early, long before it became clear that either one of these two would die. I believe Glirdan proactively participating in lynching Sally is a sign of his innocence although not proof. At this point only a very shrewd wolf would actively go after a fellow wolf, because, let’s face it, a wolf lynched is a step towards a village victory, and an innocent lynched is a step away from that, there’s no getting around that simple fact. A wolf jumping on the bandwagon, yes why not, but actively working to make that bandwagon happen, I doubt it. I could be wrong and maybe that’s everyday business in the ww-world, but to me that feels like too much of a gamble for uncertain profits. For the moment Glirdan has redeemed himself.

Aganzir

Morsul looks better to me today, I can follow his logic about sally. However I don't think the fact that she tried to lynch Glirdan tells us anything about his role.

Those eager for one:

Morsul

++Glirdan

It got me one wolf so maybe It'll get me another.

Nienna

Morsul, that line from Sally has been bothering me as well. I think that the chances are actually quite high that Glirdy is a wolf. She may have been thinking that if I switched and he was a wolf she would be redeemed or she could make a false seer-reveal and if she was lynched it could be passed off as the meaningless banter of a wolf trying to save herself.

Lommy

I think it looks like Glirdan was Sally's fellow wolf, not because of any seer reveal plot (I don't believe in that) but just because it looks like that. I think Sally could've tried to make Glirdan look better - or at least make us really divided about him - by attacking him so strongly in the end. What he said about Zil makes me feel it's pure bluff meant to confuse us, and means Zil's probably innocent. She wouldn't have dared to highlight two of her fellows that way. Also, Glirdan's attack on Sally was very wolf-on-wolvish, I think Sally's mates would've known she's in trouble and used that to their own advantage... (not necessarily all of them, but at least one or two. Which makes me think, ha, we have only lynched a cobbler and a wolf this far. Go us!)

Wishy-washy:

Legate

Otherwise... as for Glirdan and Sally, I think sally's comment can mean either. Whatever is Glirdan's role, Sally either wanted to a) if Glirdan is innocent, to make us wonder about her comment, whether it was so obvious that it was Wolf-on-Wolf or something (the same btw. concerning her comment in her list about Inzil "he's innocent! Don't ask why, he just is" or how it was), and of course preferring if by any chance Glirdy was lynched instead of her - it would give her at least one more Night to live and make us waste yesterDay's lynch and then use toDay's lynch on her, or b) if he's her packmate, she really wouldn't care much whoever of them gets lynched, either way it will be a Wolf (that goes also for all the other Wolves voting, of course, let us bear in mind), and in such a case, if he was lynched, yes, she could gamble toMorrow with a Seer reveal or something (although I think it will be somewhat hard for her to get definite support, but it might lure the real Seer out, and in general sow confusion), or simply, if she was lynched (like she was), we might think that Glirdan was innocent because of all that.

Nogrod

(see post 486)

Votes

Morsul -> Glirdan
Brinn -> Glirdan (2)
Greenie -> Nogrod
Legate -> Inzil
Agan -> Inzil (2)
Lommy -> Glirdan (3)
Skip -> Shasta
Shasta -> Greenie
Nog -> Glirdan (4)
Zil -> Glirdan (5)
Lottie -> Glirdan (6)
Nienna - > Glirdan (7)
Nerwen - > Glirdan (8)

Who looks bad:

Legate: He was very wishy-washy with his thoughts of Glirdan, leaving the possibilities open but not really sticking to one side or the other. Then he ends up voting Inziladun.

Aganzir: That's a big maybe. She would look especially bad if Inzil is innocent since it'd look like she's trying to start another bandwagon. But then, Agan isn't the type to be hesitant about running over her packmates if it made her look better.

Nogrod: His wishy-washy attitude about it. He votes Glirdan but only until it looks evident that he probably can't be saved. An easy spot to hide in a bandwagon.

Nerwen: She seems slightly hesitant about a Glirdan lynch, but ends up going with the flow by the end of the Day...a bit suspicious to me.

Who looks good:

Lommy: She was pretty eager to lynch Glirdan from the start...too eager for wolf-on-wolf, I think.

Nienna: Same as Lommy, though not quite as eager.

wilwarin538

04-14-2010, 12:02 PM

Greenie's narration is up.

Thinlómien

04-14-2010, 12:09 PM

Back here.

However, Lommy did put forward that theory about a Shasta-wolf... it makes one wonder.If it helps you dearie, my analysis this far looks like you're very unlikely wolf. ;)

Not really anything else to commnet on right now.

Off to continue my analysis.

Nienna

04-14-2010, 12:32 PM

I'm here. I don't really have much to contribute as people are already doing a thorough analysis of Greenie, Glirdy, and Nog. I'm working on a pretty massive project but I'll be in and out.

Nog is the most worrisome for me today. I would love to hear more from him but he's seeming very nonchalant.

Thinlómien

04-14-2010, 12:43 PM

Decided to post my massive post in three parts. Two other parts still in progress...

General issues

Since I was rereading the thread I managed to glimpse the rules and noticed the Unicorn, of whom I had completely forgotten about. So we do have a chance to get Greenie back and tell her dreams! Yay. :D But of course, we shouldn't put our hopes in that, the possibilty that the Unicorn is going to bring her back and not someone else is quite slight...

Who could Miss Greenie have dreamt of on Night1?

people who didn't post anything before she left: -
people who only posted banter etc until after she left: Mira, Shasta, Boro (she xed with Boro's first serious post when she left)

Now, it's possible she dreamt of wolf Shasta on Night1, but then she would have come out if she also dreamt of wolf Nogrod, and as I feel quite confident about Nog's guilt, I think she didn't dream of Shasta ('cos she couldn't have dreamt of innocent Shasta either). However, if Nogrod turns out innocent, then looking at Shasta would make sense.

I think her Night1 dream was Boro or innocent Mira, her Night2 dream was innocent Skippy and her Night3 dream was wolf Nogrod. Ergo (at least until I complete my analysis on the wolves), Skip looks good to me, Mira possibly a bit better than before and Nogrod quite bad.

Shastanis Althreduin

04-14-2010, 01:34 PM

I'm quite irritated with the light of my life for being the next person to steal my thunder. :rolleyes: I did say I was coming back.

Ah well.

Lommy, you might be about to address this in your "megapost", but do you have a reason for thinking Boro was Greenie's dream for Night 1?

Thinlómien

04-14-2010, 01:38 PM

Sally's interactions with people

Sally towards others

Day1
- banter with Mira and Zil
- thanks Agan for clarification, sort of banter with Morsul
- agrees with Shasta about stuff, for example Morsul being hypocritical
- instructs Skip to use highlighting
- reacts to Shasta's drawback from Morsul suspicion by saying she still thinks he might've been serious Somehow this makes me think both Shasta and Morsul are innocent - flimsy grounds I know, but would a wolf jump on a fellow's random suspicion and would the other wolf then draw it back? or would a wolf jump on an innocent's erraneous point on her fellow?
- jokingly says all Europeans (=Lommy, Legate, Greenie, Agan, Nog) are evil
- is concerned about Legate's vote
- is surprised by Shasta's vote for Greenie
- votes Legate
- says that voting Legate was a better option than voting Winty, Brinn or Mira
- explains to Morsul what she meant by "lemming"
- wants Shasta to stop "following" her

Day2
- banter with Nienna
- Nogrod is suspiciously quiet, Winty's newbie pass is gone and he's suspicious, (curious interlude: first person mentioned on her list was Glirdan the fellow wolf, second was Nogrod whom I suspect of being a fellow wolf and third is Winty... does it mean he's the last wolf?), no idea about Mira, Agan, Inzil is "plain and simple" not a wolf, Shasta's strange and possibly a wolf, Nerwen's not evil 'cos she's giving evil vibes, still suspicious of Legate, Morsul is an opportunistic bandwagoner wolf, Nienna's safe, not concerned of Skip or Brinn, slightly worried of Lommy
- suspects Shasta
- redirects questioning Nienna to her suspicions in an overtly friendly tone which makes me think Nienna is innocent... why try to buddy up a fellow wolf?
- tells Brinn to go to bed
- tells Skip he can still prevent her death
- is slightly offended for receiving Nienna's vote and no explanation A wolvish "Et tu, mi Brute?"or the show of a dying lycanthrope?
- tells Nienna to lynch Glirdy

Others towards Sally

Day1
- Nerwen banters with her
- Lommy has no read on Sally because of banter
- Legate is surprised by Sally's amount of sense thus far ...what?
- Aganzir wants more content from her
- Lommy places her in the middle of three categories, calls her crazy
- Agan doesn't want to repeat herself to her
- Agan clarifies Greenie's words to her
- Nog has no opinion of her, but used to think her too careful in the beginning
- Nienna claims she can read her and is not alarmed yet, won't vote her
- Nienna is worried by her avoiding people calling her wolf

Day2
- Nienna doesn't understand her
- Lommy questions Lottie's wolf quartet suspicion which includes her
- Legate doesn't like her vote from Day1 and will keep and eye on her
- Legate takes Lottie's aforementioned wolf quartet theory seriously
- Lommy considers her "Save Private Lottie operation" very fishy, mentions she discredited Legate's vote and says she's now one of her new suspects
- Agan wants more substance from her and is "not too fond of her"
- Nerwen speculates on her possible wolvish chagrin
- Lommy puts her to the most suspicious of five categories, doesn't like wishy-washyness and throwaway vote
- Morsul votes her, dislikes her admitting starting a bandwagon and likes Lottie's suspicion against her
- Nienna thinks Morsul's vote on her is wolf-on-wolf
- Nerwen votes her, says she seems the most suspicious thus far and calls it a bandwagon
- Zil says she's the most suspicious of Lottie's quartet
- Agan has nothing against her death and thinks her death would be educational
- Agan thinks she should be suspected more often so that she'd be more serious
- Mira is "on the fence" about her
- Agan is unsure about her
- Lommy is not convinced enought of her guilt to give her a third vote
- Legate is unsure and suspicious about her
- Legate thinks her questionable and thinks other people have raised good points against her, places her in the most suspicious of three categories
- Legate considers voting her since there's support for that suspicion
- Winty considers voting her
- Legate suspects she will be voted by many
- Nogrod says there are fair points against her
- Legate is torn between voting her and two others
- Shasta thinks Morsul's suspicion of her looks opportunistic
- Legate solomonises about her and Inzil, thinks he'll vote her, note: Legate's general reluctant and wishy-washy suspicion of her doesn't look good at all
- Morsul's offended by her calling him a lemming If he was a fellow, I think they'd sort it out overNight... probably
- Legate votes her, says her latest post made his decision for him
- Nogrod wonders about her comments about Zil and Brinn
- Winty votes her
- Morsul likes her defenses but won't change his vote
- Nogrod starts suspecting her on losing her nerve
- Nog votes her, thinks she's more suspicious than Glirdy
- Nienna likes Nog's points against her
- Nienna tells her to stop defending herself and start accusing people
- Nienna asks for details about her suspicions
- Brinn thinks her flock-behaviour, defensiveness and throwaway vote speak against her
- Brinn votes her
- Skip asks if she's dying
- Skip suspects her a little and thinks it'd be interesting to know her role but also has some sympathy for her
- Nienna votes her

Conclusions a bit later, I don't want to make this any longer anymore!

xed with Shasta

Thinlómien

04-14-2010, 01:39 PM

Lommy, you might be about to address this in your "megapost", but do you have a reason for thinking Boro was Greenie's dream for Night 1?Not really, except for that everything else seems more unlikely. That's the Night whose dream I'm the most unsure of.

Aganzir

04-14-2010, 01:43 PM

Sorry, I've been horribly busy all day (first I had to finish a paper, then I had lectures and after that took a bus to another city to get a chair for me & Lommy's future apartment)... And I feel totally useless coming in so late.

Not surprised if Nog turns out to be a wolf. His response to my "I don't get why Green suspects him" sent chills down my spine when I read it in the night... Like, "why are you trying to downplay her suspicions and buddy up with me?"

May not mean much, but I think it's funny that they said basically the exact same thing.
No it means Legate & I are wolves and had agreed to vote for Inzil and say exactly that. ;)

Just noting that Inzil defended Glirdan, saying he'd rather vote for Mira or Green (who had just voted for Nog).

I'm somewhat worried about Nerwen. Lommy said something about how she's calm and rational and appears to know more than the rest, and I can see where she's coming from. Yesterday she accused skippy of defending Glirdan, and there's something about her tone that suggests she knew Glirdy was a wolf. Like, she took a step ahead and used it as grounds for suspicion while most of us still didn't know Glirdan's role for sure.

And Glirdan? That was a most admirable ploy by Sally in trying to get him lynched Day 2. If that was just some fast thinking on her part, and wasn't planned out, I find it all the more amazing.
What's the point of saying that? Was it a nightly plan or not, it didn't work, and the whole comment is sort of creepy.

Nogrod – Usually, at this point of the game, I'm convinced he's a wolf. This far I guess he's never been one when we've played together. So now I'm wondering if I should get worried as I've found no reason to suspect him...
The comment could be interpreted so that she's dreamt of Wolfgrod but hasn't found a reason to suspect him yet without seeming to grasp at straws or getting the wolves after her which makes her frustrated.

I really don't like Inzil's analysis of Green's posts. It seems he's just looking for people she suspected and downplaying the fact that she called some people innocent.

It's also possible that Green dreamt of Lottie on night 2, and I wouldn't be surprised if it was the case.
I think maybe she did dream of Agan; she's been very solid in her support.
In that case I was most likely her night 1 dream. But I don't know, she kept flip-flopping about me and on day 2 she said "I'm not saying she's innocent" which a seer might not say about a dreamt-of innocent.

she dreamed either Agan or Legate, probably Agan, and Skip, and then Nog.
I'd add Brinn on the list. I think she always called her innocentish...

Would he have been unnerved enough by her vote of him to have taken that risk?
Certainly because there is still one wolf. If he thought Green had found him out, he wanted to eliminate her before she managed to come out and possibly reveal the last wolf.

These three show an odd trend however Each One mentions a slip-up maybe She keeps saying something like "Wow I'm glad no one thought I was a wolf for that." As if relieved no one picked up on her mess up
I don't get what you're trying to say.

Seems to want us to not entirely trust our seer
No I didn't because as I said, I've won a game as a wolf because the seer trusted the cobbler whom she had seen as innocent.

First off thanks for calling me Lazy
You're welcome, if you want to interpret it that way. It wasn't really you that I called lazy, but the way you formulated your suspicions. You didn't have good enough reasons for me to call you innocent. Live with it.

wolves can hide behind these jokes and she's bee using them a lot.
A few days ago I was coming home in the evening and while sitting at the metro station some nutjobs came to me. One told me that some day I will see, that some day I will be cast into a fiery pit, and I said 'Okay,' and then another said to him: 'It's too late! Evil has already claimed her!'
I thought to tell it here but decided I had already joked enough about being evil. Does it comfort you at all? ;)

Suspects Inzil for listening to him... Another Argument I've had. Why do we bother listing reasons unless we expect to persuade anyone?
It's not the fact that people do it but the way they do it.

I really don't like the way Agan's going after people who haven't used their retractions
Not doing that. I've been explaining why I think we should use them as soon as possible, but I haven't accused anyone of it.

Line she does something she condemns others for she take's nienna's word and changes suspicion.
No I didn't. You're making things up. I think I said quite clearly that I had not changed my mind about Mira but would like to hear more from her (and still do). All Nienna did was to explain why she thought in a different way than I, which I had asked her to do.

I'm Opportunistic Lazy a Horrible Person should be lynched right now
I think you fail to see I wasn't attacking you personally. I thought, and still do, that your playing style looked opportunistic. Live with it (or change your style).

Last Paragraph agains says she put Sally as supicious based only on what others said isn't that terrible thing to do Agan...
I think you misread. That's why I took her away from my guilty list. Because I didn't have much against her myself, apart from what others had said. ;)

I don't know what to make of Morsul's analysis, but to be honest it amuses me. Anyway. As far as I'm concerned, people usually analyse others in order to make up their mind about someone, not to find every possible reason for suspecting them. Which I don't think was Morsul's intention, but which he seemed to be doing.
And I have no idea if it points toward his guilt or not. A few days ago I would totally have been at his throat for writing something like that, but now I neither know nor care much.

Lottie you're sweet! ♥ :-D

Lommy has a good point about the wolves not killing Greenie unless she had given them a reason to worry when they could've gone after Lottie instead, I think.

It doesn't say sees "Innocent or Wolf" it says "Their ROLE" Why wouldn't we trust a seers dream Agan...
*rolleyes* Because of this:
1 Cobbler: wants the Wolves to win, but is counted as an innocent and seen as innocent by the Seer.
And the same applies to the cursed (who doesn't even know her role), in case you're interested.

I like Nerwen's Nog analysis. However it doesn't help me make up my mind about Nerwen. Either she's innocent, or she has decided to go heavily against her fellow in order to better her own chances of survival. Unless Nog turns out to be innocent, in which case I don't know either.

She would look especially bad if Inzil is innocent since it'd look like she's trying to start another bandwagon.
I was. To me Inzil's death would have revealed more than Glirdan's, given that I had been concentrating on him quite a lot and on Glirdy not at all. I'm not sorry it was Glirdy who died but I'd still like to lynch Inzil.

I think Brinn looks good. I know she can be a horrible as a (lone) wolf but at the moment she's very helpful in an innocent way.

I'm prepared to vote for Nog today because I think he's our best bet. And even if he happens to be innocent, it's better for us to be rid of him than to keep wondering whether we should kill him or not.

Legate of Amon Lanc

04-14-2010, 01:52 PM

Okay, I am back here, but I feel sort of... exhausted. Well, been walking around the city for three hours straight and then two hours with an one-hour pause... spent the last half an hour with partially reading and partially eating. I think I will spend some time with the latter yet. My hands really don't feel like typing (although I have no idea what they have to do with walking, but it simply is like that), so for now I will limit myself to few one-line comments.

(~~~) *grin appearing*

Uh-oh... This doesn't make any sense.

I mean really. There was that "you are no seer" -thing, but that's basically the only thing one could say that would hint towards her being the seer. So the wolves got really lucky this time. But getting lucky doesn't explain why they chose her. For some actual reason or just to confuse us?

Okay. One scenario: like someone said already, maybe they were taking even more heat than we know? Making a totally odd kill would keep us going around the subject for quite a while - and thus we might let our main suspicions from yesterDay to recede?

Well I'm not impressed by that interpretation but at the moment I can't think of a better one.

Btw. I do appreciate the effort of trying to figure out whom she dreamt of but as you can see, Greenie was clearly intentionally ambiguous about her knowledge... to a point we have no way of "knowing" anything from her posting (we should read her closely and try to form some opinions of them to be sure but I'm afraid that we can't quite trust those interpretations fully). It's always a bit unfair to speak bad of the dead, but I really think she should have been a tad more forthcoming with her knowledge. Maybe she felt she was safe, but going to N4 without giving even one clear hint is a little reckless.

And really, toying with a scenario. If I was a wolf and she had dreamt of me wouldn't she have said that openly? She would have gotten at least one more dream and the wolves would be down to one after you lynched me toDay. Also she could have thus given us all the known innocents (or even the last wolf!) she had clear and openly and not leave us into this interpretation-game over them.

I do think Greenie is smart enough to have gathered that.
Well, but obviously she didn't. One thing that comes to my mind is that if she didn't have really any strong support for her claim, especially if she e.g. has dreamed about some people who were already dead, she wouldn't dare to come forth. Heck, there is even the unlikely scenario that she dreamed about ONLY the dead people. (Although that's of course a bit over the top.) Anyway, I think Nogrod is a bit too "pessimistic" here - or also deliberately covering the fact that he killed Greenie. In any case, not being able to uncover anything is one thing, but denying the possibility and not even trying is another.

There are, from my point of view, basically two options. Either the kill was done to frame Nogrod and drive us away from the current (resp. yesterDay's) main suspects, which for me would mean e.g. Inzil especially, or the kill was done to kill a Seer, which would mean most likely a Wolfgrod. I can't see much of any other possibility behind these two and thus will be probably voting according to it toDay.

I agree with what Lommy says, and with what Brinn says here:
I do think the possibility of a Nogwolf is realistic. For one thing, I wouldn't be at all surprised that Greenie would choose to dream Nogrod, especially seeing the single comment she wrote about him before Day 3. And again, I don't see why the wolves would've chosen to kill her, unless they had a reason to suspect she was the seer. Her comments on Nogrod are the only ones that look potentially seerish...everything else she says seems a bit too vague. The question is would a Nogwolf kill Greenie knowing that if she is the seer it might put him in the spotlight? At this point, I think so. With half the team and their cobbler down, the wolves aren't exactly in a good position and couldn't afford a seer reveal. And a seer reveal could've been quite likely toDay considering Greenie might've been a heavy suspect after yesterDay. Looking suspicious is better than becoming a known wolf. If Nogrod is a wolf, it's best to keep in mind he would've been well aware that killing her would make him look suspicious if she did turn out as the seer, so I imagine that a Nogwolf would come into toDay prepared to defend himself.

Now it could just be that Greenie was killed at random, a lucky guess from the wolves that also frames an innocent Nogrod. But I still have trouble believing that simply because I wouldn't understand why the wolves would kill someone who had the possibility of getting lynched toDay unless they had reason to believe she need to be eliminated.

Let me also note that if Nog was a Wolf, if he suspected Greenie of dreaming of him, by leaving the Seer alive one more Night, he would also risk another of his fellows (i.e. the last one, in this scenario) being dreamt about, so it would definitely come to eliminating her as first priority. (Not to speak of the fact that if she revealed, the Ranger would've likely protected her at least for one Night.)

The main point for the reasoning that Greenie was killed because of Seerishness is still the fact that the Wolves did not kill Loslote, even though that would make the most sense!

So much for one-liners :p

EDIT: x-ed with 2/3 of Lommy and the rest

Nogrod

04-14-2010, 01:57 PM

(~~~) *grin appearing*

I see you are making bad calculations...

Massive disagreement with Nogrod:
I actually disagree with the massiveness of your disagreement... :) Well at least with the point 2.

1) Greenie's smart, but because she was suspected so much and she hadn't posted anything obviously seerish (as we have noticed when trying to analyse her dreams), I think she would've dared not to come out, especially if she had lost one dream (dreamt of someone who died) at some point, which is an option we have to keep in mind.According to your scenario she had dreamt of at least one wolf (me) - and if we contiune with that scenario probably also of another (Glirdan) because she put us both into the same category of "bad". If I was a wolf and she had dreamt of me but not Glirdy, why would she mess with our heads by claiming me and Glirdy belonging to the same group? So if she had two wolves bagged why didn't she come forwards with it? I feel you're really trying to force your point now and it doesn't look too good.

2) Looking at a seer's posts is never a bad thing. You may be pessimistic (or a wolf), but I'm not. I have correctly interpreted a dead seer's dreams before and Greenie is just a tad more difficult challenge. You of all people should remember this (remember the last game you modded?). There's no way for us to find the absolute truth about Greenie's dreams, but we can make good guesses which can help us in our suspicions. A bit the same way a wolf's fellow wolves can't be absolutely logically found out from his/her posts but we can make good guesses to one way or another... Besides, currently we could even afford to be misguided for a Day or two and people tend to rethink things in the light of new events. :pWell, first of all there is a way to get "absolute truths" from the seer's dreams and that is when the seer comes forwards, tells the dreams openly and dies to prove her claim to seership. And Greenie knows that.

Sadly she didn't give us that option which probably tells us that she had a) no wolves, and b) she had less than three innocents.

But yes, I truly agree that we should speculate about the possible dreams - I actually said it in my post back there - but you Lommy seem to be picky with what you take into account and what you don't... And I also agree that we can afford a mislynch or two right now looking at the numbers.

Surely the only way for me to prove I'm right is that you lynch me, and well that's okay. As I said, we can afford a mislynch. I understand the situation perfectly well. But I do recommend you fight over it and then when I'm dead you draw your conclusions based on what people thought of my lynching.

Surely I'd like to stay around for a Day or two as fex. toMorrow I would have time to really delve into this, but well that's not up to me.

Anyway Lommy's trigger-happiness has raised her up in my suspicions quite a lot.

There were some other things I thought I'd say but I have forgotten. I'll go back to the thread and be right back.

(~~~) *grin vanishing*

EDIT: X'd with Agan & Legate

Nogrod

04-14-2010, 02:12 PM

(~~~) *grin appearing*

Lommy has a good point about the wolves not killing Greenie unless she had given them a reason to worry when they could've gone after Lottie instead, I think.

The main point for the reasoning that Greenie was killed because of Seerishness is still the fact that the Wolves did not kill Loslote, even though that would make the most sense!Would you explain to me why the wolves would wish to kill Lottie? She is not the cursed, as our moddess herself specifically told us if I recall it right. Why would they waste their kill on Lottie?

Now all you three can't be wolves so then you just think lazily. Heh, the way you treat this whole bussiness with me actrually underlines it pretty well.

Think, please. Check my last post as well. And think. Please.

(~~~) *grin vanishing*

Aganzir

04-14-2010, 02:22 PM

Either the kill was done to frame Nogrod and drive us away from the current (resp. yesterDay's) main suspects, which for me would mean e.g. Inzil especially, or the kill was done to kill a Seer, which would mean most likely a Wolfgrod.
I agree. However I don't think Greenie suspected Nog heavily enough for the wolves to think they could frame Nog by killing her, and therefore your second option seems to me more likely. If she hadn't actually been the seer Nog might have got away with it, but now I think we're better off if we lynch him.

If I was a wolf and she had dreamt of me but not Glirdy, why would she mess with our heads by claiming me and Glirdy belonging to the same group? So if she had two wolves bagged why didn't she come forwards with it?
Maybe because she didn't want to appear too obvious? I remember a game where the guy who be seer put both Fea (dreamt of wolf) and me (not dreamt of innocent) as evil and everybody thought we both must be guilty... So, wise or not, seers do that. And given her posting, does it look like she had dreamt of Glirdan?

Would you explain to me why the wolves would wish to kill Lottie? She is not the cursed, as our moddess herself specifically told us if I recall it right. Why would they waste their kill on Lottie?
Would Mr. Cat like to explain to me why the wolves would not want to kill a known innocent? :p
Or did you just betray something of your night talk? Are the wolves only desperate to find the cursed now? ;)

Thinlómien

04-14-2010, 02:28 PM

Glirdan's interactions with people

Glirdan towards others

Day1
- banter with Mira and Shasta
- welcomes Winty and thinks him innocent although recognises Nerwen's point against him, banter defends himself against Lommy's "complaints" of banter, argues with Morsul about Day1s, apologises to Agan for lack of content and "flatters" her, loves Lommy for slightly dissing phrasing about him, gives a vote pass for out of game reasons to ww, Skip and Agan I think I'm becoming paranoid but this makes me slightly uneasy about Winty...
- never suspects Nog but is now worried about his vote, has no read on Mira, Lommy or Zil, approves of Agan's contributions and of Brinn's posting, suspects Shasta's vote yet sort of flip-flops, talks about Nerwen's protectiveness of ww, says Legate talks sense but doesn't like his vote, is bugged by Morsul because of a previous game, Nienna is too much under the radar
- not voting: Winty, Skip, Agan, Brinn & Morsul, probably not voting: Nerwen, Mira, Inzil, Nienna & Lommy, could vote: Nogrod, Legate & Shasta
- votes Shasta, admits throwawayishness

Day2
- likes Morsul's points
- asks Winty to explain himself
- thinks Legate has good points but is defensive, suspects him and ends up having him in his suspicion list sort of seriously, considers Agan defensive as well, doesn't want to defend himself against Lommy, agrees with Brinn, wants to hear more and is worried about Mira and Nerwen
- suspectes Winty based on Agan's point, suspects Mira based on bandwagon-suspicions against Greenie
- asks Nog for a clarification, rebukes Winty for not giving reasons for his vote

Day3
- wasn't around to say anything

Others towards Glirdan

Day1
- Lommy says he's too excited about IC posting but not necessarily guilty
- Legate notifies on his bantering
- Aganzir wants content from him... in the exact same words as from Sally! Curious incident...
- Lommy places him the middle of three categories, notes on there being little substance, banters
- Nog is annoyed and slightly suspicious of him because of his style
- Nienna has no read on him and puts him to the a bit less than a half of the village whom she could vote

Day2
- Morsul thinks him either suspicious or that "the wolves picked the person who pushed their cobbler friend over the edge"
- Lommy questions Lottie's wolf quartet suspicion which includes him
- Legate takes Lottie's aforementioned wolf quartet theory seriously
- Lommy disapproves of his reasons to try save Lottie
- Agan accepts his apology from Day1, comments on his points and says she likes him for now
- Lommy puts him to the most suspicious of five categories, doesn't like non-committal throwaway Day1 vote 'cos he suspected all the main lynch candidates
- Skip classifies him as a wishy-washy low-profile wolf candidate
- Zil says he'd like to have a closer look at him
- Agan has no opinion on him
- Lommy votes him
- Legate has no idea or suspicion on him
- Winty mentions him in shirriff speculation
- Legate says his sadness on Boro's death seemed more forced than Agan's, but doesn't like the point against them anyway
- Winty considers voting him
- Legate suspects he will be voted by many
- Nogrod says there have been some fair points raised against him
- Shasta doesn't have a read on him but smells bandwagonishness
- Shasta thinks some of Lottie's points against him "plain stink"
- Nog doesn't consider him as suspicious as Sally
- Winty answers his question
- Brinn thinks he has a fair point about Winty
- Skip votes him to open up an option for Sally lynch and says he's had vague suspicions about him all along
- Zil has a lots of points against Glirdy (won't recapitulate) and votes him

Day3
- Morsul thinks he's a wolf based on his theory of Sally planning a false reveal on Day2
- Zil thinks it's unlikely he and Sally were fellows given Sally's last-minute full frontal on him
- Zil admits Morsul's point but doesn't still think his wolvishness very likely
- Morsul votes him on gut-feeling, is confident Are Morsul's early votes to good to be innocent, asks I (like somebody already did before)?
- Nienna agrees with Morsul that Sally's post points at his guilt
- Zil starts to doubt his own earlier conclusion about G's innocence
- Brinn ponders the possibility of him being in cahoots with Sally, doesn't reach a conclusion
- Nerwen wonders about his conncetion with Sally, seems slightly more for than against
- Shasta agrees with Zil's previous Day suspicions of him but leaves analysing him to others
- Winty wants to analyse him and Sally's interactions
- Brinn uses him in a speculation over Nienna's role
- Lommy brings forth points against him and thinks he looks very bad but recommends looking at others too
- Lommy thinks he has funny wolvish giveaway bahaviour, uses him in a speculation over Nog's role and adds one more point against him
- Skip thinks his active pursuit of Sally makes him look innocent
- Nerwen disagrees with Skip's aforementioned point
- Skip wonders about him and Sally's Day1 banter
- Legate wishy-washes on his role and relations with various people (too long to recapitulate and I'm tired) in two posts
- Brinn wonders what to do with him, would like to hear his defense
- Nerwen analyses him and Sally's interactions, concludes he's suspicious but has also a few points for his innocence
- Nog analyses the wagon against him, doesn't present an opinion on the ovject of the wagon himself
- Zil explains his earlier thoughts about him
- Agan would like to have a look at him (and others) since she's unsure, likes Lommy's point against him
- Nog mentions him in a few analysis-posts but still no own opinion of him Ok I understand his opinion of Glirdy is not exactly related but this starts to look too non-committal...
- Brinn votes him, thinks his role could go either way but give us a lot of info, therefore the vote
- Shasta discusses him indirectly
- Skip wants to have a look at the emergence of suspicion against him
- Skip belittles his own earlier suspicion against G and thinks others don't have particularly good points against him, has no idea bout his role except he's not his prime suspect anyway
- Legate wishy-washes more about him, wonders if voting him would make sense, doesn't reach a conclusion Darling, you could start a laundry service. :p
- Skip says it's mathematically more probable he's innocent
- Legate points out the flaw in aforementioned point
- Shasta discusses him in relation to Greenie
- Skip thinks only one out of a list of five including G can be guilty
- Agan flip-flops on him, sort of concludes he's not suspicious
- Agan and Skip discuss him indirectly
- Nog again speculates about others' relations with him but doesn't pronounce an opinion of his own about him
- Zil discusses him indirectly
- more indirect discussion of Glirdy from Nog's part (he doesn't approve of Greenie's take on her)
- Skip has little liking for possible wagon against him
- Lommy is pretty sure she'll vote him, he's her top suspect, discusses him and Nerwen
- Lommy doesn't want to give Glirdy a chance to defend himself and votes him haha that sounds quite nasty! Also, is confident but flip-flops.
- Skip wants to know his role thanks to "all the hype"
- Shasta wishy-washes on the wagon against him, has no own opinion
- Lommy hopes that he or (another) wolf is lynched
- Nienna thinks him most suspicious of all but would like to hear his defense but would like to lynch him
- Zil's not enthused about lynching him although thinks knowing his role'd be useful
- Nog votes him, says he's been thinking it to and frobut is not too happy about the vote but thinks he's more likely a wolf than many others Interesting turn of events...
- Ni says he looks worse than Mira (the other absentee)
- Zil reminds people he's not around to defend himself but thinks it quite clear he will get lynched
- Zil votes him Again, very interesting turn of events, although self-defense played a part here, too...
- Nerwen wonders about Skip's constant defenses of him
- Ni votes him, hopes there'll be info
- Nerwen votes him

And that's it! Done! Like with sally, conclusions coming later. Basically means I check the things I (probably) xed with and then have a look at this post and the Sally one and make some conclusions.

edit: xed with all and gah, those are too long posts, I'll make my conclusions first and then read and comment those...

Legate of Amon Lanc

04-14-2010, 02:28 PM

Would you explain to me why the wolves would wish to kill Lottie? She is not the cursed, as our moddess herself specifically told us if I recall it right. Why would they waste their kill on Lottie?
Two words. Known. Innocent.

I have elaborated on this a bit more in the first post (or maybe second, well one of the early ones, anyway) of toDay, saying that okay, maybe this or that, maybe the matter isn't so pressing for them yet, but still... why not to get rid of the known innocent while they can? Eventually, it will become a problem for them, one person who is "clean", and by that time they might not have the option to choose anymore whether to kill her at Night or not - there might be many, many other more pressing problems and they would not be sure at which Night the Ranger is protecting her or not etc.

EDIT: x-ed since the quoted Nog

skip spence

04-14-2010, 02:34 PM

Lommy has a good point about the wolves not killing Greenie unless she had given them a reason to worry when they could've gone after Lottie instead, I think.
Yes, killing Greenie was a surprising decision (and I'll miss having her around). But what possible reason could the wolves have to believe she was the seer? From what I've gathered she was always perfectly ambiguous and vague about everyone, and tried her best to stay out of trouble. I was starting to suspect her as a wolf for these reasons. Could the wolves have felt that this was a reason to suspect her being the Seer, with the knowledge that she wasn't a wolf?

And why not Lottie? Two reasons I can think of. Maybe they think the ranger will protect her every other night and that the risk of missing out on a kill is too great. Or that the people Lottie now suspects are innocent, and that she's likely to cause as much bloodshed among the villagers as she already has among the wolves. I'm not so sure who's on top of Lottie's suspect list any longer though.

Morsul's odd though, wouldn't you say? Can't give this too much time but I will look into some of his statements now. There seems to be a pattern to his seemingly erratic behaviour, one that tempts me to cry... what is the word again ... oh yes wolf.

Nogrod

04-14-2010, 02:36 PM

(~~~) *grin appearing*

Would Mr. Cat like to explain to me why the wolves would not want to kill a known innocent? :pI'm not claiming the wolves would love to have a known innocent around, but I think it's rather safe to assume that as they lost two wolves and a cobbler in three Days they'd rather wish for reinforcements rather sooner than later. :rolleyes:

However I don't think Greenie suspected Nog heavily enough for the wolves to think they could frame Nog by killing her, and therefore your second option seems to me more likely.You seem to have also a bad memory on top of lazy thinking habits...

Okay. One scenario: like someone said already, maybe they were taking even more heat than we know? Making a totally odd kill would keep us going around the subject for quite a while - and thus we might let our main suspicions from yesterDay to recede?What I think now is the following. The wolves wished to make a puzzling kill so as to keep us occupied with it (success indeed). That means at least one of them was in considerable trouble already yesterDay and they wished to change the scope of discussion once and for all. Greenie happening to be the seer was a bonus they couldn't have anticipated - but they would love to turn it into their advantage toDay with getting me lynched. *coughLommycough*

(~~~) *grin vanishing*

Aganzir

04-14-2010, 02:46 PM

I'm not claiming the wolves would love to have a known innocent around, but I think it's rather safe to assume that as they lost two wolves and a cobbler in three Days they'd rather wish for reinforcements rather sooner than later. :rolleyes:
Nog honestly. Yeah of course they want to find the cursed, but I wouldn't say it's safe to assume she's their primary target. They have no idea who's an ordo and who's not, and even if they knew every ordo the odds of finding the cursed wouldn't be too good.
And I think it's extremely unnerving you say so.

That means at least one of them was in considerable trouble already yesterDay and they wished to change the scope of discussion once and for all.
So if you're innocent, maybe you'd like to go and find the wolf who was in considerable trouble instead of just defending yourself? :p

++Nogrod

Should be worth a try. ;)

Thinlómien

04-14-2010, 03:02 PM

(leaving myself out, of course)

Would be Sally's fellow
Nog - last minute suspicions against her
Brinn - same as Nog
Skip - nice relations, he sort of helps her out

Could be Sally's fellow
Legate - quite torn here, he looks sinister towards her but she doesn't towards him
Winty
Nerwen
Mira
Agan
Zil

Not Sally's fellow
Morsul - see her following Shasta's suspicion on Morsul
Shasta - same as Morsul
Nienna - late Day2 very unincriminating

Would be Glirdy's fellow
Agan - can't really put my finger on it, but there's something mighty fishy going on between them
Shasta - back and forths about him that way
Legate - same as Shasta
Nog - avoids having an opinion about him

Could be Glirdy's fellow
Skip - I'm puzzled about his really weird behaviour towards him
Zil - heavy suspicion on Day2 but slip-floppiness on Day3... weird?
Brinn - major back and forthing about Glirdy but she voted him without saying she suspects him. If she was a wolf, why wouldn't she try to look better by suspecting him?
Mira
Nerwen
Morsul
Nienna

Not Glirdy's fellow
Winty - I think he is questioning the poor noob too harshly for that

ERGO:

Probable fellows with 2 wolves
Nog

Probable fellows with 1 wolf
Brinn
Skip
Legate
Agan

Middle (probable + improbable or could be + could be)
Shasta
Mira
Nerwen
Zil

Improbable fellows with 1 wolf
Winty
Morsul
Nienna

Improbable fellows with 2 wolves
no one

Next your darling Lommy's up to:
1) replying all the old and new cross-posts
2) making a list

edit: xed with all again

Inziladun

04-14-2010, 03:12 PM

Originally Posted by me
And Glirdan? That was a most admirable ploy by Sally in trying to get him lynched Day 2. If that was just some fast thinking on her part, and wasn't planned out, I find it all the more amazing.

What's the point of saying that? Was it a nightly plan or not, it didn't work, and the whole comment is sort of creepy.

I was impressed by the daring nature of it. Simple as that.

I really don't like Inzil's analysis of Green's posts. It seems he's just looking for people she suspected and downplaying the fact that she called some people innocent.

I would think that all Greenie's words could be read, without me having to explain everything. I was only concentrating on who she suspected, seeing as she was the Seer, and had been killed and all. :rolleyes:

To me Inzil's death would have revealed more than Glirdan's, given that I had been concentrating on him quite a lot and on Glirdy not at all. I'm not sorry it was Glirdy who died but I'd still like to lynch Inzil.

Shame you didn't quite want to lynch enough me just yet, since you voted for Nog. There's always toMorrow, no doubt.

There are, from my point of view, basically two options. Either the kill was done to frame Nogrod and drive us away from the current (resp. yesterDay's) main suspects, which for me would mean e.g. Inzil especially, or the kill was done to kill a Seer, which would mean most likely a Wolfgrod. I can't see much of any other possibility behind these two and thus will be probably voting according to it toDay.

The other option is the one Nog mentioned, that the wolves were looking for the Cursed, and left Lottie alone because she wasn't it. The main mark against that though, is that it's too much of a coincidence that they just happened to take out the Seer in that scenario.

And why not Lottie? Two reasons I can think of. Maybe they think the ranger will protect her every other night and that the risk of missing out on a kill is too great. Or that the people Lottie now suspects are innocent, and that she's likely to cause as much bloodshed among the villagers as she already has among the wolves. I'm not so sure who's on top of Lottie's suspect list any longer though.

Either of those are possible too. The odds really are against Lottie having both remaining wolves in her sights.

Nog is not mounting the aggressive counter-attack that I've come to expect when he's innocent and stands accused.

Thinlómien

04-14-2010, 03:18 PM

I've won a game as a wolf because the seer trusted the cobbler whom she had seen as innocent.For the last time: I DIDN'T TRUST HIM! I only wasn't too concerned about him, which was obviously a mistake.

So much for one-liners<3

According to your scenario she had dreamt of at least one wolf (me) - and if we contiune with that scenario probably also of another (Glirdan) because she put us both into the same category of "bad". If I was a wolf and she had dreamt of me but not Glirdy, why would she mess with our heads by claiming me and Glirdy belonging to the same group? So if she had two wolves bagged why didn't she come forwards with it? I feel you're really trying to force your point now and it doesn't look too good.Whos' trying to force a point here? :p It doesn't make any sense to try to discredit my point by saying that given that I'm the one who tried to analyse the way Greenie phrased her trust in people in one list post. I think her phrasing of you and Glirdy was different enough to make a difference, and besides, if she really suspected Glirdy (by logic or gut feeling) and you (because of a dream) why not put you both in the same categry? Or should she have put Glirdy under "suspicious" and you under "dreamt wolf"? Come on, she was the seer and she was trying to hide from you wolves...

But I do recommend you fight over it and then when I'm dead you draw your conclusions based on what people thought of my lynching.Sounds good.

Nog, how come wolves only look for the cursed? Is that inside information? (Ok, I see you answered that. It's a fair point, but since I didn't think of it, I'm - wise or not - not inclined to think an innocent would've come up with it... Not that this is a good point against Nog, just saying.)

Off to do a list, then vote. Want to be in bed in 45 minutes.

edit: xed with Zil

Nogrod

04-14-2010, 03:19 PM

(~~~) *grin appearing*

So if you're innocent, maybe you'd like to go and find the wolf who was in considerable trouble instead of just defending yourself? :p

[highlight ]++Nogrod[ /highlight]

Should be worth a try. Maybe I would, but why? If you refuse to think, why should I help you? You don't seem to pay attention to what I say so why bother? I could sleep tonight as well if nothing I say makes any difference.

And where's your effort Agan? Oh, the moral highground is such a slippery thing... Why don't you try and go find the wolves? Are you so happy with the presumed outcome that you can just lay back and enjoy?

Heh, I was actually going through the posting toDay to make some remarks on them, So maybe I'll finish with it anyway and not make my threat of resigning quite that real. :rolleyes:

Nog is not mounting the aggressive counter-attack that I've come to expect when he's innocent and stands accused.You should see my aggressive counter-attack when I'm a wolf and stand accused...

Some people here might tell you about it. :D

(~~~) *grin vanishing*

skip spence

04-14-2010, 03:26 PM

Could Morsul's early votes mean something? I've noticed that the people catching the most flack so far are the people who've been active right up until the deadline and voted late. The Europeans have stayed out of most people's suspicions, maybe in part because of this? We of course have good reasons to vote rather early as the DL is in the middle of the night, but for Morsul not so.

Maybe he figures that by being his incoherent self and voting early, sometimes for his fellow wolves, he might just soldier on as a minor but harmless disturbance?

And what to make of all this. First he proclaims to have all the time in the world:
I'm off tomorrow:D I can stay on all night yay!

Then, shortly after, he's suddenly run out of time:
Painting my kitchen today so no time. ++Shasta
That doesn't seem like a thing that would prevent someone from checking up on the thread, him being in his own flat and all.

And then there's this quote that I've already brought up:
Lastly I voted first for both wolves... If I knew they would get the most votes for the day I'd be A) psychic and B) insane for offering them up for slaughter.
This is clearly written from the perspective of a wolf, without stating that it is a hypothetical situation. If I were a wolf I'd be crazy for offering them up for a slaughter would be a fair argument. Maybe it was just an honest mistake, or perhaps a fatal slip of the tongue?

Insane for offering them up for the slaugher, eh? Yes, that may well be the case. A working theory of mine is that Shasta and Morsul are the remaining wolves. But if they are that seems like too bold a plan, especially if it's been made before hand. Hm...

Gotta vote soon.

Thinlómien

04-14-2010, 03:33 PM

Innocent
Lottie

Slightly innocent
Skip - I don't like his interactions with the wolves very much, but he seems like a rather likely seer dream.
Shasta - very contradictory evidence, but if I had to guess, I'd call him innocent. Will change opinion quite radically if we lynch Nogrod and he turns out to be innocent.
Nienna - something in her posts rubs me slightly the wrong way, but I'm currently thinking it's the same "something" that always makes me suspicious of her. Unlikely fellows with Sally, or then very evil and backstabbing.

Middle
Brinn - having real hard time with her.
Morsul - too right about stuff to really seem innocent, but then again, I have hard time imagining him and Sally in cahoots.
Legate - used to think him innocent but starting to be very lost with him now.
Agan - see above (only substitute "he" with "she" ;)).
Mira - needs to post more, seriously. Her posts look slightly more bad than good, but then again she looks a tiny bit like an innocent seer dream.
Winty - quite frankly, no idea. Suspicion of more or less only wolves is slightly disturbing, but might just be bandwagoning. Not probable fellows Glirdy, if I read the signs right. Tough call.

Slightly suspicious
Nerwen - in theory, she seems very innocent. In practice, she feels creepily wolvish. Keeping an eye on her... (She sort of too good to be true.)
Zil - I keep changing my opinion on him all the time. However, the evidence doesn't really flatter him. *sigh* All too aware of him being an "easy suspect".

Suspicious
Nogrod - fishy interactions with the known wolves, especially Glirdy. Also very probable seer dream.

++Nogrod

As you can see, even if I didn't suspect him so much, there wouldn't be much choice for me because I'm so unsure about everybody. ToMorrow (provided that I'm alive) I will focus on people I haven't paid enough attention before.

edit: xed with Nog and Skip
edit2: fixed bolding, decided to go to sleep. Bye!

Legate of Amon Lanc

04-14-2010, 03:35 PM

Well, I must say that the idea of the Wolves looking for the Cursed makes sense in itself, it's what they would like probably the most right now, but the point is, to use skip's odds from yesterDay, that there is really little chance for them to get one, something like 1:12 or how many. Pretty bad, I think. It would be impossible for the Wolves to just keep killing a person after a person with the intention to find the Cursed, it's as much of a chance that they stumble upon a Hunter who might just as well kill one of them, or an Unicorn, for that matter. The problem is that there is not even a clue about somebody being a Cursed, because the person itself does not know that! So it's just that the WWs may just go about their own business and hope that somewhere along the way they stumble upon the Cursed.

So I don't know what to make of it, Nogrod just joined the list of people who are possibly suspicious and don't make sense at the same time. Really, is that something catchy or what?

Okay, maybe only one possible explanation now occured to me - and that's probably what he meant, now thinking of it - that the WWs would rather kill a person they know is NOT a Gifted in hope that it'll be a Cursed. But, well, that has the same problem as the above (only with the odds being 1:11 instead of 1:12) AND on top of that it would leave a live Seer with all the problems I have remarked in my last post. Ridiculous. All of this does not say anything about Nogrod's innocence or guilt to me, it just tells me that he is thinking in a rather megalomanic way. Unless he is a Wolf and is annoyed to be suspected on wrong grounds, as it should be obvious to us in his opinion that he should have been looking for Cursed and leave Greenie alive. And all of that, of course, considering that the Wolves knew who Greenie is. That's so random that I am actually beginning to consider whether what Aganzir said about Nogrod possibly slipping his Wolf thoughts might not be true after all.

EDIT: x-ed since Lommy's 4/3

Nogrod

04-14-2010, 03:37 PM

(~~~) *grin appearing*

It's kind of frustrating that you guys don't seem to get the point I'm trying to make time and again...
Come on, she was the seer and she was trying to hide from you wolves...Okay. Going on with this scenario of yours that I was a wolf... You're contradicting yourself and good sense when you try to maintain that she was at the same time the most careful - not leaving any hints on whom she had dreamt of to ensure no one could think her the seer - and at the same time she would have revealed her wolf-dream as her top suspicion and plain ignoring the possibility the wolves might get her the next Night for it...

If I was a wolf, I wouldn't call her posting on me yesterDay "trying to hide from the wolves". But it would be "not helping the innocents at all" as she didn't then leave any known innocent and took the risk of losing last Night's dream by exposing herself to the wolves. So she exposed herself to the wolves but told nothing to the innocents?

That doesn't make sense Lommy. C'mon. Greenie is smarter than that.

I just get this funny feeling you and Agan are pushing this a bit too eagerly...

Okay, if you don't understand what I'm trying to say, well then don't. We can afford a mislynch as is said many times.

(~~~) *grin vanishing*

EDIT: X'd with Lommy and Legate

Legate of Amon Lanc

04-14-2010, 03:50 PM

Maybe I would, but why? If you refuse to think, why should I help you? You don't seem to pay attention to what I say so why bother? I could sleep tonight as well if nothing I say makes any difference.

And where's your effort Agan? Oh, the moral highground is such a slippery thing... Why don't you try and go find the wolves? Are you so happy with the presumed outcome that you can just lay back and enjoy?
Now, if you are innocent, Nog, you would not resign and try to find some suspect. You are not doing anything. And accusing Agan does not make sense here, because even though you are right that she does not make her own effort, she has a case - unlike you.

Could Morsul's early votes mean something? I've noticed that the people catching the most flack so far are the people who've been active right up until the deadline and voted late. The Europeans have stayed out of most people's suspicions, maybe in part because of this? We of course have good reasons to vote rather early as the DL is in the middle of the night, but for Morsul not so.

Maybe he figures that by being his incoherent self and voting early, sometimes for his fellow wolves, he might just soldier on as a minor but harmless disturbance?
(...)
And then there's this quote that I've already brought up:

This is clearly written from the perspective of a wolf, without stating that it is a hypothetical situation. If I were a wolf I'd be crazy for offering them up for a slaughter would be a fair argument. Maybe it was just an honest mistake, or perhaps a fatal slip of the tongue?

Insane for offering them up for the slaugher, eh? Yes, that may well be the case. A working theory of mine is that Shasta and Morsul are the remaining wolves. But if they are that seems like too bold a plan, especially if it's been made before hand. Hm...
I don't know about Shasta, but at least Morsul this far does not seem suspicious to me. He has been acting more or less like his innocent self, and the possible slip of all things is not very convincing to me either (I mean, I can see Morsul making a mistake like that without it being a slip).

It is interesting nevertheless, you sort of made me now imagine the interesting idea of Morsul fooling us (or me) all the time, because he really seemed "normal" to me. Anyway, it's good to see skip sort of working independantly, making me think even better of him. (If he's a Wolf, hats off (to Roy Harper).)

EDIT: x-ed with Nog

Legate of Amon Lanc

04-14-2010, 04:01 PM

Okay. Going on with this scenario of yours that I was a wolf... You're contradicting yourself and good sense when you try to maintain that she was at the same time the most careful - not leaving any hints on whom she had dreamt of to ensure no one could think her the seer - and at the same time she would have revealed her wolf-dream as her top suspicion and plain ignoring the possibility the wolves might get her the next Night for it...

If I was a wolf, I wouldn't call her posting on me yesterDay "trying to hide from the wolves". But it would be "not helping the innocents at all" as she didn't then leave any known innocent and took the risk of losing last Night's dream by exposing herself to the wolves. So she exposed herself to the wolves but told nothing to the innocents?
This makes sense in a way, however, of course one must ask the fundamental question once again, why did the Wolves do what they did if it wasn't so. Back to my thoughts early in the Day, the options do not seem to be too many. In any case, if Nogrod is lynched and he turns out to be innocent, I will be turning back to the situation how it was before toDay, i.e. looking at those who were suspected back then. As if we rule out the possibility of the Wolves knowing Greenie was the Seer, I really cannot imagine other reasons for killing her than creating the confusion, framing Nogrod and leading us away from the trail.

Anyway, my main dilemma toDay is simply whether to join lynching Nogrod - and therefore getting part of the answers to the above - or to believe in the other of the possibilities and lynch one of the other suspects, in my case Inzil. However as I am not sure how much the other makes sense right now and considering that I have been slightly unsure about Inzil's guilt for a few reasons (see earlier toDay), it might as well be Nogrod. Even though I am wondering if his defense is not that of a genuine innocent.

Nogrod

04-14-2010, 04:15 PM

(~~~) *grin appearing*

Now, if you are innocent, Nog, you would not resign and try to find some suspect. You are not doing anything.I'm doing all the time... sorry about the rhetorics, but the way Agan and Lommy seem to have deaf ears to anything I say kind of discourages me to sneak hours from my sleeping time. I mean if no one listens why bother?

But anyway. here's something to begin with...

Some thoughts along this Day (a work in progress - has been that for an hour or so)

I'm honestly quite baffled with this: a hilarious 10-year old or an inexperienced wolf trying to look good... or just Morsul?
I was shocked by the pick if I do say so myself not to toot my own horn I was sure I was going to be the victem to days in a row with the right vote... That NEVER happens for me(I'm excited) keep it alive folks!

Okay, I see I'm not the only one.
One more thing I just realized with Morsul:

He keeps proclaiming that he's successfully voted for two wolves in two consecutive Days. Okay. That's lovely. Indeed. And he has done that relatively early as well, if my memory serves me right (not going to go back and find them). So that could be something pre-planned indeed. Or "just Morsul". The trouble is, can we afford not to check him?

On the issue of interpreting Greenie's dreams.

Someone - Lommy at least (with reservations) and I feel there was someone else as well - came over with an idea that Greenie might have dreamt of Agan and found her innocent? Well let's look at her actual posting on Agan (thank's for the quotes Lottie). This was actually the thing that made me question the knowledge we could gain from such a cryptic seer as Greenie was in the first place (the thing Lommy thought incriminated me... well you can pass your verdict with these quotes).

Agan is lovely and provides a lot of substance (I'd raise my hat if I had one, unfortunately I only wear a helmet), I don't suspect her - but then, I always suspect her when she's innocent, so maybe she's a wolf now. Gah, I'm flip-flopping. Family vice. Sorry.

Agan – Seems genuine and makes a lot of sense. I'm not saying she's innocent - I know how capable she is of fooling me - but I won't be voting her without a good reason.

At least as far as my werewolf-experience goes, few wolves actually put all their fellows in the "no opinion" -category - or any same category, for that matter. A wolf is almost always a tad paranoid, and wold prefer to avoid cramming all his fellows under the same heading just so as not to make all their names appear together. Besides, a bit of wolf-on-wolf suspicion - or even open wolf-on-wolf fraternizing - is actually safer for a wolf than just carefully not saying anything about one's fellows. And, in addition to that, I've never seen an Aganwolf not pulling off any kind of wolf-on-wolf thing.
Aganzir
A sensible point, could well have been by an innocent Agan, but the phrasing of the underlined part struck me as slightly fishy – it's too careful (maybe, a bit), not much like Agan's usual provocative style.

This, in turn, looks okay.

Could well be a wolf assuring that the death of a fellow would be okay while not enforcing the suspicion on her.

This strikes me as genuine innocent reasoning, though. Agan is driving me mad.Does this seem to anyone as a seer talking of an innocent - and leaving the hints for the posterity so that they would not lynch an innocent if she happens to die?

Heh, going forwards the thread I find this: I think Agan was dreamed, but I don't think it was until Day 2.Now why Shasta? You have the quotes here. Let's hear your argument behind you thinking Agan innocent? I might actually think you and Agan are in cahoots and you just rushed to try and confirm something someone else had suggested. But really. That was not an honest comment in any way. Looking at the facts (the quotes above) and what you say just don't fit.

Okay, a break now...

hats off (to Roy Harper)
:cool:

(~~~) *grin vanishing*

skip spence

04-14-2010, 04:18 PM

Nogrod is starting to worry me too but I've not really kept up to date with the reading and just why he's suspected. Because Greenie the Seer's vote for him, is it not? It would be remarkable if we (though I can't claim any credit) could lynch a wolf three consecutive nights. Don't know if Nogrod is one but things are beginning to bad for him methinks. How do you behead a big grin anyway? Let's ask the The Queen Of Hearts shall we?

But I will not be the one to try to fit the noose around his neck or lack of. The most honest option for me is Shasta, who I've sort of suspected since early on. I could go for Morsul too but don't see that happening now.

++Shasta

*is off to sleep*

Shastanis Althreduin

04-14-2010, 04:22 PM

Alright. I'm here for a few minutes, but I've... tarts to steal (read: final dress rehearsal tonight) so I won't be here at deadline.

Right now my vote will probably be for Nogrod. I've seen Nog come down hard on the "frustrated innocent" defense (and been on the receiving end of such :p) to buy it from him this time. Plus, he hasn't (at least I haven't seen it... if you have, correct me, Nog) responded at all to the point I made earlier in the day against him, about his vote for Glirdan that contradicted his previous stance on "easy lynches".

Now, Legate -

Morsul this far does not seem suspicious to me. He has been acting more or less like his innocent self, and the possible slip of all things is not very convincing to me either (I mean, I can see Morsul making a mistake like that without it being a slip).

It is interesting nevertheless, you sort of made me now imagine the interesting idea of Morsul fooling us (or me) all the time, because he really seemed "normal" to me.

I don't like this post much. Especially since I'm suspicious of Morsul (and agree totally with Skip, here)

Maybe he figures that by being his incoherent self and voting early, sometimes for his fellow wolves, he might just soldier on as a minor but harmless disturbance?

I could see Morsul doing just that on the basis of "it's worked before" (which he's already admitted to basing his actions on anyway :p), and your post looks like you're dismissing suspicion of Morsul off-hand.

My only problem is that Nog is a likely wolf, so you can't be wolves together. :p

Shastanis Althreduin

04-14-2010, 04:29 PM

Yes, Nog, I can do that with three of the same quotes you just used. Let me just change the bolding around, shall I? :p

Agan is lovely and provides a lot of substance (I'd raise my hat if I had one, unfortunately I only wear a helmet), I don't suspect her - but then, I always suspect her when she's innocent, so maybe she's a wolf now. Gah, I'm flip-flopping. Family vice. Sorry.

Agan – Seems genuine and makes a lot of sense. I'm not saying she's innocent - I know how capable she is of fooling me - but I won't be voting her without a good reason.

Aganzir
A sensible point, could well have been by an innocent Agan, but the phrasing of the underlined part struck me as slightly fishy – it's too careful (maybe, a bit), not much like Agan's usual provocative style.

This, in turn, looks okay.

Could well be a wolf assuring that the death of a fellow would be okay while not enforcing the suspicion on her.

This strikes me as genuine innocent reasoning, though. Agan is driving me mad.

I'm not saying you're obviously, insanely wrong, Nogrod, but calling my remark dishonest is pushing it a bit much, don't you think?

Legate of Amon Lanc

04-14-2010, 04:32 PM

I'm doing all the time... sorry about the rhetorics, but the way Agan and Lommy seem to have deaf ears to anything I say kind of discourages me to sneak hours from my sleeping time. I mean if no one listens why bother?
Well but that makes two people out of a dozen.

Good point about Agan, though, I never felt the dreams listed by Lommy made that much sense - or not in the way she posted them, anyway, it played little role. Personally I think one of them was skip, maybe even the first one, and then perhaps even somebody dead, and then depending... a Wolf Nogrod, or something totally different. Well, I sort of spoke about this in the beginning of the Day. It certainly would help a lot to have Greenie revived, but well, we have to do without that at least for now.

And now, to something completely different.

A list. (For those who know Bob, that was supposed to be said in his voice.)

SUSPECTING

Nogrod - mostly this possibility of Greenie kill...
Inzil - see a long time ago, in a Galaxy...

CURIOUS ABOUT

Mira - no idea at all
Shasta - something similar, a bit worried by some points raised against him, but I haven't really made any of my own observations with definite focus on him.

INNOCENTISH WITH THE PARANOID FEELING THAT THEY MIGHT BE WOLVES FOOLING ME (in the order from the topmost - the most paranoid about - to the lowest, the least paranoid about)
Aganzir - that paranoia does not need to be explained, I believe. Also, she is just sort of faring too good. Eurgh.
Nerwen - well... she looks okay, but it's just similar case as Agan, you can't really know with her
Morsul - see my post above
skip - see also my post above
Lommy - is in this cathegory only because her crusade against Nogrod is a bit too much of a crusade, on the other hand, a Wolf would not be so zealous, in my opinion - that would mean basically signing one's own death penalty. Actually, that might almost move her into the next cathegory. Really. Well but then, I could do the same also for Morsul and Skip, as I am really not *that* paranoid about them. Well, and maybe Nerwen. Okay, that leaves Agan. Well, what a surprise ;) Nah, it's not just about paranoia, it's just sort of that I am not THAT inclined to consider them as "clean". But maybe really I should move Lommy down there. Okay, enough of this rant :D

INNOCENTISH WITHOUT AS MUCH OF A PARANOID FEELING
Wintywinty - looks a lot better now, though not posting much
Brinniel - speaks lots of sense lately
Nienna - generally think innocent, early comments about the WWs

INNOCENT
Loslote

In general, if I had to bet, I would say - or hope - that both of the Wolves are among the four topmost.

EDIT: x-ed with two Shastas

wilwarin538

04-14-2010, 04:47 PM

Votes so far:

Morsul -> Shasta
Agan -> Nogrod
Lommy -> Nogrod (2)
Skip -> Shasta (2)

Legate of Amon Lanc

04-14-2010, 04:50 PM

Right now my vote will probably be for Nogrod. I've seen Nog come down hard on the "frustrated innocent" defense (and been on the receiving end of such :p) to buy it from him this time. Plus, he hasn't (at least I haven't seen it... if you have, correct me, Nog) responded at all to the point I made earlier in the day against him, about his vote for Glirdan that contradicted his previous stance on "easy lynches".
Okay, if Nog turns out innocent, I will also remember this, Shastaggoning for Nogrod?

Anyway, as for voting, I am not feeling as comfortable as earlier. Of course after two Wolves being lynched it is not any big deal yet. But nevertheless, I think I will be probably voting Nogrod. It also makes sort of the most sense. Even though I would assume him to put up a bit more fight as a Wolf. Argh.

Now I was basically just sitting here and thinking for a few minutes. Okay, let me see if a sudden stroke of brilliance shines on me or if I crossposted with somebody clever, then I vote and go to sleep.

Shastanis Althreduin

04-14-2010, 04:52 PM

Leaving, have to vote now.

++Nogrod

Legate of Amon Lanc

04-14-2010, 04:54 PM

Well that was not just *somebody* clever, that was our very Moddess :)

But I'll tell you what, I have this irrational feeling to actually vote for Shasta and just be gone. However that said, I haven't been reading his posts at all with any deep insight and I honestly don't have a clue. And it would be so random. Okay! Let's do it, I am going to actually go very quickly through his posts just to have the peace of mind after reading them (or not). Urgh.

EDIT: okay, x-ed with more, actually Shasta himself.

Legate of Amon Lanc

04-14-2010, 05:09 PM

Okay, it brought some new questions and stuff, but I cannot really focus on that anymore. It brought at least sort-of peace of mind in the sense that I have sort of confirmed to myself that there is only one sensible way for me to vote now. And if nothing else, it is sort of giving Greenie's yesterDay's vote and suspicion of Nogrod a support post mortem. If she ever dreamt of a Wolf, it was most likely him.

++Nogrod

Good night, people.

Inziladun

04-14-2010, 05:34 PM

As I did with Glirdan, I have the feeling this is too easy.
However:

1. I didn't like Nog's nitpicking me on Day 1 about my comments on ww's vote.

2. Greenie voting him 'just because he's Nog' would seem more likely to me for a Day 1 vote from her, not a Day 3. It seems odd that she would have singled him out like that for no reason when there were seemingly better candidates, which was why I suspected she might be a wolf.

3. I don't have any better ideas at the moment.

4. I have to leave now, and I probably won't make it back before DL.

++Nog

Brinniel

04-14-2010, 05:38 PM

Not sure about Mira, but the way he comments on winty makes it seem like he's preparing himself to join a winty bandwagon if that were to happen on a later Day. He voted Shasta on Day 1...since it was a throwaway, it could be wolf-on-wolf, but I don't know how likely that actually is.
Darling, I'm a girl. You know this.

I was talking about Glirdan, as I had been for the entire paragraph. Rereading it, I realise it doesn't sound all that clear...sorry about that.

Some thoughts:

Innocentish:

winty- He still looks like a newbie innocent to me, plus Glirdan's growing suspicion of him doesn't look wolf-on-wolf and more likely preparing for an easy lynch.

Aganzir- On the lower end of this section, but some her actions in the game don't measure up to how I imagine she'd play as a wolf.

Legate- While his opinions on a Glirdan lynch are wishy-washy, the fact that Glirdan listed him and Sally as suspicious makes me think he's more likely innocent. I just can't see a wolf grouping two packmates as suspicious.

Morsul- Logic would tell us he's innocent based on the voting, but logic isn't always the best thing to follow. If he is a wolf, that'd be an interesting strategy to take and it's always possible. Yet I do find him more likely innocent because of his behaviour. While I don't care much for his overreacting and overconfidence (boasting how he's voted two wolves), I think that may be just part of his playing style and so it just doesn't seem that suspicious to me.

Nienna- Her posts have so far felt genuine and I can't imagine her suspicion of Glirdan being wolf-on-wolf.

No idea:

Mira- I might be slightly leaning innocent, but I'm still really not sure.

Inziladun- I really don't know and it's probably something I should look into.

Shasta- While it's possible Glirdan's vote for him could be wolf-on-wolf, I somehow think it less likely. But he doesn't mention Shasta again, and maybe that dropped suspicion could indicate wolf-on-wolf. I don't know.

Lommy- She was awfully eager to lynch Glirdan yesterDay, but is it possible this eagerness could be a cover up? Maybe. Though I'm leaning slightly towards innocent, I'm still not sure enough to place her in the innocentish category.

Possibly wolfish:

Nerwen- Glirdan showed a very slight suspicion of her and then backed away. She also seemed to me not very big on the lynch Glirdan idea, but then eventually gave in. Suspicious, but perhaps on the lower end.

Wolfish:

Nogrod- I have to say, Glirdan's comment on him looks very wolf-on-wolf. Let me post it again:

For some reason I never suspect this guy....Maybe it's just because he always comes across as the level-headed one among us (which is saying something this time around ) or maybe it's just a charm he has....Although his vote for Fea has me a little worried. Voting for her simply for initiating the voting for Lottie? What reason is that? The bandwagon for Lottie (at least the voting anyway) did not start until well AFTER she had voted.....Hmmm....

Glirdan said that on Day 1 and then didn't mention Nogrod again. With lynching Glirdan, he didn't really seem to side with one way or the other. He did vote Glirdan, but by then the bandwagon looked comfortable enough to hide in. And then there's of course the fact that our seer voted him yesterDay, a throwaway rather than choosing the obvious lynch.

I would've posted Sally's comments on other people and then analysed it, but I ran out of time. I won't be able to do it tonight, but perhaps I can jump on that task toMorrow and get some better clues about other players, along with posts from toDay.

EDIT: X-ed with Inziladun

Brinniel

04-14-2010, 05:50 PM

Okay, I'm supposed to be doing schoolwork now, so in order to prevent distracting myself, I'm voting now. There's really no need for me to hold off anyway since I've already made my decision:

++Nogrod

So far we're on a streak lynching a cobbler and two wolves in three Days. No innocent has yet to be lynched. I'm hoping to keep it that way. Honestly, it would really surprise me if Nogrod does turn out innocent...there's just so many reasons that point to his guilt.

Nogrod

04-14-2010, 06:14 PM

(~~~) *grin appearing*

Sorry. I have been writing the Arda Cup 10 game results and now need to pull off to sleep.

And if nothing else, it is sort of giving Greenie's yesterDay's vote and suspicion of Nogrod a support post mortem. If she ever dreamt of a Wolf, it was most likely him.If she had dreamt of a wolf wouldn't she have told us so? I still don't get this logic you all (well most of you talking the last few hours) seem to cherish.

Let me put this theory bluntly: If Greenie dreamt of a Wolfgrod, then she knew he would kill her. So why didn't she reveal openly, thus telling everyone who the innocents are (so who we should not vote in the future) and secure her one more dream?

A seer doesn't fool the innocents, she tries to fool the wolves. But if the theory you are bringing forwards is true it means Greenie revealed herself to the baddies but didn't give any hints to the goodies.

Just how probable you think that is?

Anyway. Bedtime for me.

Heh, I remember you Brinn making something like an argument on my placement of my vote earlier. You know what, I need to go to sleep and I can't control when the other people make their votes... I think Lommy made quite a reasonable rant on the issue already. Sadly we Europeans can't just choose to hang on or to tactically vote "early". 4.30AM is about the most devillish DL there is.

So I will vote for either Shasta or Aganzir (I could go with Lommy as well). The two look like possible pals. Agan just looking too happy to get an innocent lynched with a general support and not making an effort to consider. So a wolf who just loves what is going on and cares not? Shasta was making that totally weird point of Agan being dreamt of by Greenie. There is no way you can honestly make that interpretation from Greenie's posts (as you can check form the quotes). So there is another agenda there? Is it that you try to help Agan or you just try to butter up with her?

I'll go with

++ Shasta

If I'd to have one more Day to make my best (as I have time then) then Shasta is my best bet as he already has two votes. But also I could say that with the two of them, Agan and Shasta, it is easier to see him as trying to play it for the mate. With Agan it might be that she was just lazy. (Well, were she just lazy, she wouldn't have been that comfortable... you know, wolves can be comfortable with lynches as they know the role of the one who is lynched, we innocents can't be that comfortable).

But Shasta's defence of Agan-dream by Greenie is just plain false so he is either a fool or false. I don't think he's a fool so I must conclude he is false.

Blah.

Seeing the latest votes... thanks so much friends. I really appreciate your attentiviness. But as you said, we can afford the mislynch. So no major harm done, even if I don't exactly like it.

Sadly you're not going to be able to read anything from the votes from toDay if the voting continues like this.

Morsul -> Shasta
Agan -> Nogrod
Lommy -> Nogrod (2)
Skip -> Shasta (2)
Shasta -> Nogrod (3)
Legate -> Nogrod (4)
Inziladun -> Nogrod (5)
Brinn -> Nogrod (6)
Nogrod -> Shasta (3)

It's 6-3 between me and Shasta now and if I counted it right it's 5 votes to come.

Your choice.

(~~~) *grin vanishing*

wintywinty

04-14-2010, 06:20 PM

*falls from horse*

Did the rules say we have to play mad instead of just having a WW game in a mad setting? Seriously, this is one of the oddest Day 1 beginnings I have ever seen. I dislike the votes so far, though that isn't to say anything on whether they are necessarily signs of wolvery or not.

My contribution toDay will be pretty much horrible - this is the worst possible day for me to be playing Werewolf - but I promise to be much more active in the Days to come! I've got to dash, but I'll return later. Try to be sensible, meanwhile. (It's easy for me to say, of course, given that I won't be around for most of toDay.. )

Greenie gives reasons for little activity.

*falls from horse*
Back again! I'm feeling slightly hyper right now, so don't be annoyed if I'm not making much sense.. But here come some impressions of toDay.

Originally Posted by Mira
wintywinty's vote is more suspicious. I do agree with whoever suggested it might be of a wolfish nature and xe was told to act newbieish to allay suspicion. Or it could be a newbie mistake. People do tend to follow Fea for no reason.
I don't see Winty's vote as suspicious - nor innocent-looking, for that matter - it just is. Meaning that s/he (which is it, by the way?) could have done that just as well as a wolf as an innocent, and thus drawing conclusions on that seems weird to me. But then, everything here is weird.

Agan is lovely and provides a lot of substance (I'd raise my hat if I had one, unfortunately I only wear a helmet), I don't suspect her - but then, I always suspect her when she's innocent, so maybe she's a wolf now. Gah, I'm flip-flopping. Family vice. Sorry.

Lottie's analysis post was interesting, but I found the "gut feeling"-thing slightly eyebrow-raising. The so-called gut feelings were mostly reasoned points, so why call them gut feelings? It just struck me that calling a point a mere gut feeling kind of lessens the responsibility over it - one can, later, claim it was just a gut feeling, not my fault that we lynched an innocent, whoops.

Lommy is acting purposefully mysterious which strikes me as weird - she's having this manner of "I know something you others don't, let's see if I care to share it!" I don't quite know what to make of it, it's not usual her but then I'm not sure if it's necessarily suspicious either.

Okay, enough ranting, I don't remember if I had something to say about someone else still, so I'll let Lommy post and go to sleep and then do the same myself. Back soon babes!

Doesn’t see my earlier post as suspicious, sees Agan as innocent, thinks Lommy is suspicious.

Originally Posted by Lommy
Darling, I already explained it.
Eurgh. Sorry. My concentration is poor today.

I know this reasoning is outrageously bad, but I'll tell it anyway because it's what I'm thinking: I'm kind of afraid that Lottiewill become this typical Day 1 easy lynch (ordo), but then again, she's the only one I have any valid point at all, so

++ Lottie
Votes for Lottie, but hopes she won’t become an easy Day 1 lynch?

Phew. Here at last, been running all day and now it's getting late again. I so wish the Day and Night phases were the other way round... So if I seem to be over-reacting (I fear I am) it's because I'm tired. This will be a mostly self-defensive post. The next one will include something rather more relevant to the game, I hope.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lottie
So then, Greenie. Her vote post was apologetic, she voted when I was starting to lead the votes (prime bandwaggon spot) and claimed not to have any real reason. If there is a wolf among these four, and I think there is, I'd bet it's Greenie.
Seriously, I know being annoyed won't exactly help a thing, but I can't but be a tad annoyed. What, exactly, are your reasons for suspecting me? I suspected you yesterDay and happened to get the internet after Lommy (we're using the same one) so I voted you only after some others had done that already. That, I suppose, made my vote bandwaggonish. I had a reason to suspect you, I didn't have reason to suspect anyone else, so I voted you. Simple as that. And I think I had voiced my suspicion of you before the bandwagon against you had even started, so you can't claim my vote was just jumping on the bandwagon. As for the apologetic tone of my vote post, I was being honest. It did pop into my mind that I might be pursuing what would turn out a typical Day 1 easy lynch. I made the mistake of saying it aloud – if I had just played more confident than I was no one would have made such a fuss about my vote. Give me better arguments, please.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nienna
votes Lottie (3rd vote) with what she knows is outrageously bad reasoning
Not quite! Outrageously bad phrasing, more like. The outrageously bad had to do with that I was kind of worried about a typical easy Day 1 lynch, but still wanted to vote for Lottie who I suspected. My reasons for voting Lottie, while not all that great, were still substantial by Day 1 standards.
Greenie defends herself from Lottie attacks for voting Lottie
Originally Posted by Lottie
Quote:
Originally Posted by me
Eurgh. Sorry. My concentration is poor today.

I know this reasoning is outrageously bad, but I'll tell it anyway because it's what I'm thinking: I'm kind of afraid that Lottie will become this typical Day 1 easy lynch (ordo), but then again, she's the only one I have any valid point at all, so

[*highlight]++ Lottie[/highlight*]
Oh, so not outrageously bad reasoning?
Yeah. I was referring to the reasoning that I'm afraid of a typical Day 1 easy lynch but still vote for you. My actual reasoning for suspecting you wasn't outrageously bad. If I still can't make this understood, I suppose I must blame being a non-native speaker for not being able to explain myself.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mira
Unless I missed something, I wouldn't call not liking gut feelings a valid point.
You did miss something. It was that she called every point she had a gut-feeling, also those that were actual reasoned points and not gut-feelings - which struck me as horribly fishy. But really, discussing this is not fruitful as far as I can see.

Now to write some actual substance. I'm sick of talking about myself.
Greenie once again defending herself for day 1 actions.
Originally Posted by Nienna
I was pretty confident at that point that Lottie was innocent and was willing to vote for mostly anyone to save her.
Okay, but why were you pretty confident about her?
Quote:
Originally Posted by winty
and if they do not say they are the next time they post, Lottie's statement must be true, and we can assume that everything she says in the best interest of the villagers.
Yes, I think we can rather safely assume that Lottie has the village's best interests at heart. But she is not the seer. She doesn't know anybody's role and can be as wrong as any of us.

Eurgh I had some other quotes I wanted to comment on but it seems I've lost them. Off to write a list and then vote. I'll probably be suspected for voting out of the blue this time ( ) because I don't have much of an idea until I've looked at the list of villagers and considered each one in turn.
Gives two clues for Greenie being the seer, saying Lottie is not the seer, and that she will probably be suspected for voting out of the blue, which indicates that perhaps the next vote is someone she dreamed about, but is not someone many expect… Just an idea.
Originally Posted by Lottie
No, I get what you mean now.
Ok, great. Really, I'm sorry if I've sounded cross, I'm just very very tired and it's very very late and I've been up since rather early morning.
Just responding to Lottie
Glirdan – Hmm. I have no read on him myself, others have brought up good points against him, though, but I'd have to investigate myself to form an opinion.

Nogrod – Usually, at this point of the game, I'm convinced he's a wolf. This far I guess he's never been one when we've played together. So now I'm wondering if I should get worried as I've found no reason to suspect him...

Wintywinty – Too little to go on with.

Isabellkya – From what I remember of her she's been making sense and passing unnoticed. I have no reason to suspect her, but she alarms me a little because of being so smooth and sensible.

Mira – Feels innocent though I disagree with her a lot.

Sally – Her behaviour yesterDay around the voting, concerning Lottie, was weird. Other than that, she's been the usual hard-to-read Sally.

Agan – Seems genuine and makes a lot of sense. I'm not saying she's innocent - I know how capable she is of fooling me - but I won't be voting her without a good reason.

Inzil – No effing idea.

Shasta – The reasoning for his vote was rather bad, could be even wolvish - I was a little (green) suspected at that point I think but not much, so voting for me would have been rather ideal: not rubbing people the wrong way, yet not bandwaggoning either. Otherwise he has flown under my radar.

Lottie – I believe her claim though I disagree with her about almost everything.

Nerwen – No idea.

Legate – Seems innocentish this far.

Morsul – No idea.

Nienna – Hmm. Not sure. At times she feels very genuine, at others she feels like a sneaky wolf. Can't say which she is.

Skip – Seems maybe the most innocentish at this point (discounting Lottie and myself, of course), makes sense and feels genuine.

Lommy – Has dropped the mysterious attitude and feels more or less like her innocent self.

Brinniel – I'm leaning towards thinking her innocent. Her reactions seem genuine to me.

Ok, Greenie did not dream of Glirdy, because she says “I’d have to investigate him myself, aka dream of him.” Doesn’t suspect Nogrod, and is worried about not suspecting him. She did not dream of me, because she had no opinion. Suspects Isabellka because she is so sensible, but other than that has no reason to suspect her. Thinks Mira is innocent, but Greenie disagrees with her. Perhaps she has dreamed about people Mira thinks are guilty, but they are actually innocent. Greenie says Sally is hard-to-read. Thinks Agan is innocent, but says she could be guilty, but won’t vote her without a good reason. Perhaps Greenie is trying to seem not-seerish, but still attempting to convince others of Agan’s innocence. No idea on Inzil. Suspects Shasta for wolfish reason of vote. Believes lottie, doesn’t know about Nerwen. Thinks Legate is innocent, no idea about Morsul. Doesn’t know about Nienna. Thinks Skip seems the most innocent of any non-confirmed innocents. (Dream possibly?) Lommy seems innocent. Thinks Brinniel is innocent.
Originally Posted by Lottie
Not at all. And I'm sorry I'm trying to get you lynched, I just happen to think you're evil.
I sincerely hope that you will not succeed in your attempt. Talking about getting people lynched, I'd be interested to know who people are going to vote. I want to go to bed as soon as possible, but I'd like to hear some more opinions before voting..
Wants to hear who people will vote for, perhaps to try to blend in or convince them of a candidate’s guiltiness or innocence.
Eurgh. I'm starting to see why Glirdy is suspected. I didn't like that long post of his at all. Or, it was long, but it included mainly suspicion on one of the village's top suspects and confirming innocent a person everyone's been considering innocent pretty much all Day. He could be an innocent who just suspects the same person as everyone else, but I didn't like the tone of that post.
Thinks Glirdy is guilty, but doesn’t seem like she dreamed of him.
Originally Posted by Shasta
This bugs me. You say my reasoning is bad, but don't explain why.
Right. I'm too tired to look up your vote post so correct me if I'm straying, but I believe you voted me because my vote seemed bandwaggonish. I think I've said enough about that vote already. What struck me as fishy about your vote was not only that it seemed ideally placed for a wolf, but also that voting someone for a bandwaggonish vote is about as easy a reason for a vote one can come up with, one that is seldom questioned though rather flimsy.

I was about to vote for you, but your latest post made me wonder if I should after all, it seemed somewhat genuine and sensible.

Defends herself, says Shasta seems wolfish, then retracts that. Perhaps the indecision leads to a dream?
My usual bed time was approximately four hours ago.

++ Shasta

I'll explain more fully toMorrow, if required. Good night.
Explain more? Perhaps dream about Shasta, and give result the next day?
Originally Posted by Shasta
...Why wouldn't it be required?
I thought I had already given one, and meant that if elaboration on it was required I would do that later. Basically, I voted for you because your vote from Day 1 looked strategically clean (voting for someone that has been somewhat suspected but hasn't gained any votes that far - not causing discord or attracting attention nor yet getting accused of bandwaggoning).
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lottie, about Shasta
If he were a wolf, do you really think he'd try to get me to *stop* blindly ignoring suspicious behavior? No. He'd be happy with the known innocent expressing trust for him, and unless I did have the rest of his packmates pegged (which, if Shasta's a wolf, I'm way mixed up anyay ) and he'd be fine with me chasing down innocents.
I'm sorry, I think I missed something. Could you explain what you mean by this?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Inzil
As has been noted, this might seem sinister in the way ww sticks with the two candidates that are (apparently) the lynch du jour. Perhaps though, he's now following Lottie's lead as the de facto innocent, at least someone who isn't going to intentionally try to lead us to an innocent lynch. That's why I've been mainly looking at her suspects.
That, I think, is a very dangerous path to take (wow, doesn't that sound epic!) because knowing that Lottie has our best interests at heart isn't saying anything about how accurate her suspicions are. Throughout WW history there have been innocents who bark at the wrong tree for an entire game though they have the village's best interests at heart.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Inzil
And if Nerwen has been making 'great contributions', what's the cause for worry about her?
I don't like this one, either. A wolf can very well make great contributions - a Nerwolf certainly can - and off-handedly dismissing the possibility makes it seem like you are grasping at straws to suspect whoever it was who talked about the great contributions. (I've lost the spot where I found this quote, should check that, probably...)

Now, off to write my Sally-post..
Suspects Shasta, and criticizes Zil for their reasoning.
Originally Posted by Shasta
Or, alternatively, Greenie, maybe you could explain yourself a different way? That'd be great if you weren't too busy.
Explain myself about what? I'm confused. The quotes from yesterDay I picked during the Night phase when I was reading what happened after I went to sleep, I saved them on a Word file and of course wasn't bright enough to note who Inzilresponded to.
Confusing post…
HUGE SALLY POST
-States all reasons for suspecting Sally
I'm back! First off, it seems I've made a mess again with the Inzil-quote-thing.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Inzil
When you say one makes 'great contributions', I take that to mean you approve of the things they've said. That's why I thought Glirdan was being contradictory there.
Ok, that's cleared - I understood great to mean considerable of size/quantity/importance.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Shasta
Okay, after reading through as my much-less-tired self, I still don't like the way Greenie quoted Inzil out-of-context. It seems to me fairly obvious that Inzil thought Glirdan was being contradictory in his post about Nerwen, which is a fair reason for suspicion, so I don't see where the "grasping at straws" fits in. Especially as Inzil looked to be under a bit of suspicion yesterday.
Yeah. It was partly that I misunderstood Inzil, partly that I didn't like the way he seemed to imply that making sense and being a wolf can't go together.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Shasta
TLDR; Nienna looks slightly worse to me for this comment and Greenie looks worse for saying it makes Nienna look better.
A probably irrelevant question: what does TLDR mean?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lottie
Anyway, though, my point is that waking up the known innocent from blind suspicion is not a good move for a wolf to make, but it is a good move for an innocent.
Ok, thanks, that cleared - though I'm not sure if I buy your point.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lottie
First off, this really does look bad, Morsul. Secondly, what, exactly, do you mean by "It"? Voting early? Bandwaggoning? Because that's what you're doing, and it's not a very good method of getting wolves.
A technical point: getting a wolf lynched usually requires a bandwagon. Just saying. Of course, that isn't to say that I approve of Morsul's early, bandwaggonish vote. I don't.
Clarifications.
I'd prefer voting Glirdan or Nogrod toDay. Glirdan's death, as has been mentioned, would shed light to many things, and his interactions with Sally were very fishy. Nogrod's interactions with Sally looked bad too, and I don't like how he's been slipping under pretty much everyone's radar, being nice and invisible yet contributing. I could also vote Shasta or Inzil, but would prefer one of the earlier two.
Introduces Nogrod, a suspect that not many had suspected at that point. Also, suspects Shasta or Inzil. I am pretty sure Greenie dreamed about Nogrod, Shasta, or both.
Bed-time! I've been flip-flopping on whether to vote Nog or Glirdy, and decided to go for

++ Nogrod

Now I'm not sure if this is a throwaway, I suppose one could see it as such, but I just feel I should stir the pot a bit. I findNogrod very suspicious, he's being too agreeable and nudging things from the background, and his interactions with Sallyseemed quite wolf-on-wolf to me.

I won't be disappointed if Glirdy gets lynched. Unless he's an innocent, of course. That said, good night babes!

Votes Nogrod, its looking more suspicious that Greenie dreamed for Nogrod, because almost no one else considered him before Greenie.
Conclusion: Suspicious1 = Nog, Shasta. Suspicious2 = Zil, Morsul

wintywinty

04-14-2010, 06:22 PM

Oh sorry about the formatting, I'm not very good at that yet.

wintywinty

04-14-2010, 06:29 PM

++Nogrod

Brinniel

04-14-2010, 06:43 PM

Heh, I remember you Brinn making something like an argument on my placement of my vote earlier. You know what, I need to go to sleep and I can't control when the other people make their votes... I think Lommy made quite a reasonable rant on the issue already. Sadly we Europeans can't just choose to hang on or to tactically vote "early". 4.30AM is about the most devillish DL there is.
I know that and I mentioned I would take it into account. But actually, it's not voting early I have a problem with, but the opposite. I'm criticizing you for holding off your vote until it looked like a surefire bandwagon against Glirdan. If you are a wolf, it'd be easy to hide in a large bandwagon...but you'd want to be sure that there was a bandwagon and a good chance that Glirdan would be lynched anyway before contributing to his fate.

Loslote

04-14-2010, 06:43 PM

[Lottie, hold your horses! Now new crusades, darling, please. I'm not cliaming Morsul's innocent but I'm sensing another full frontal attack and not sure if that's good...

I'm not going to crusade yet. His illogic was simply annoying and I responded to it.

A crusade is not out of the question, though - he does look suspicious.

Lottie

Should have added a smilie I meant it jokingly I didn't call her lazy. However point taken I apologize.

Again I keep saying it because I'm excited I never list reasons why I voted the way I did? I did list them. I found Sally suspicious and after reading I believe your analysis it seemed confirmed. I voted Glirdan because of Sally's post it made NO sense any other way for me. and Winty voted because of a first post vote followed by "Day 1 who cares"

Winty is new. You've hosted your own game. You shouldn't be comparing yourself to newbies by this point. Just sayin'.

It doesn't say sees "Innocent or Wolf" it says "Their ROLE" Why wouldn't we trust a seers dream Agan... Sorry I'm back on that because I just went through the rules it was bugging me.

and Lottie I feel a challenge there... a wolf saying "I'm beyond suspicion come get me. Of course with no counter reveal I suppose I'll have to trust you.

Lastly I voted first for both wolves... If I knew they would get the most votes for the day I'd be A) psychic and B) insane for offering them up for slaughter.

Still looking at Nerwen.

Okay, this really does look suspicious.

1. What good does it do to play with the idea of suspecting me? It's a waste of time and not at all helpful.

2. As others have commented, this looks awful wolfly.

I'm not so sure who's on top of Lottie's suspect list any longer though.

Neither am I, to be honest. We've already lynched the two that used to top the list.

Now, I noticed something funny about Nog's posts...I'll be back with that in a few minutes...

EDIT: xed with Brinn

Loslote

04-14-2010, 06:57 PM

Greenie[/B] is smart enough to have gathered that.

And Greenie knows that.

He keeps restating this. We all know Greenie's smart. Why does he keep restating this?

Greenie happening to be the seer was a bonus they couldn't have anticipated - but they would love to turn it into their advantage toDay with getting me lynched. *coughLommycough*

I don't like how he uses Lommy as a scapegoat for his lynching. Either they're both wolves and he's trying to clear her by making her seem like THE leading force behind his lynch, or she's innocent and he's furry and he's trying to somehow make her look worse, he's innocent and honestly saw her as the driving force behind the lynch, or I've missed a possibility. She isn't the only one. There have been a huge amount of analyseses toDay.

Someone - Lommy at least (with reservations) and I feel there was someone else as well - came over with an idea that Greenie might have dreamt of Agan and found her innocent? Well let's look at her actual posting on Agan (thank's for the quotes Lottie). This was actually the thing that made me question the knowledge we could gain from such a cryptic seer as Greenie was in the first place (the thing Lommy thought incriminated me... well you can pass your verdict with these quotes).

Did you even read my post? You say you can't remember who else it was, then mentioned the post where I said that in the next breath! I think there's something funny going on between him and Lommy, but I'm not sure what yet.

Loslote

04-14-2010, 07:09 PM

Morsul -> Shasta
Agan -> Nog
Lommy -> Nog (2)
Skip -> Shasta (2)
Shasta -> Nog (3)
Legate -> Nog (4)
Inziladun -> Nog (5)
Brinn -> Nog (6)
Nogrod -> Shasta (3)
WW -> Nog (7)

~~~

Whaaaat? No votes for anyone but Nog or Shasta so far? But...but...this doesn't make me happy! :( I don't at all suspect Shasta, and I'm not sure about Nog! I'll probably vote for Nog (he is, after all, quite suspicious) but really, this gives us almost nothing!

Now to talk about that "almost". If Nog ends up being wolfly, then the people who voted Shasta are going to look rather bad for possibly trying to save him (Nog).

EDIT: I did not cross with anyone. Where is everyone??

Loslote

04-14-2010, 07:17 PM

Well, as nothing is happening, I guess I might as well:

++Nog

Although I'm still not all that sure...:rolleyes:

Nerwen

04-14-2010, 07:17 PM

Whaaaat? No votes for anyone but Nog or Shasta so far? But...but...this doesn't make me happy! :( I don't at all suspect Shasta, and I'm not sure about Nog! I'll probably vote for Nog (he is, after all, quite suspicious) but really, this gives us almost nothing!

Now to talk about that "almost". If Nog ends up being wolfly, then the people who voted Shasta are going to look rather bad for possibly trying to save him (Nog).

I agree having only two candidates isn't a great set-up, however, I've only just been able to get back on the computer and time's a-wasting.

So–

++Nogrod

Because I think we have to know his role.

I'll skim the thread now, and if anyone else really jumps out I may switch.

EDIT:X'd with Lottie's vote-post.

Nerwen

04-14-2010, 07:30 PM

Quick comment–

Brinniel (http://www.forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=627520&postcount=606) quotes one thing I said about Glirdan completely out of context, and then uses that to show I was against lynching him– ignoring everything else I said that Day.

I don't like that. I've been seeing her as a likely innocent, but I think she's going to need looking at at some point.

wilwarin538

04-14-2010, 07:31 PM

DL.

Nog is dead. He was a Wolf.

Narration will be up tomorrow, after I sleep.

wilwarin538

04-15-2010, 01:56 PM

~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~

Alirin continued to walk, trying to get as far away from the dead Knight as possible and hoping to be able to find the little blue door and go home. This is when she spotted a large off coloured striped cat sitting on a tree branch above her. The odd thing about this cat was that it was looking straight at her with an extremely large grin on her face.

“I didn’t know cat’s could smile,” Alirin said out loud to herself, “my cat Dineau* certainly does not!”

“It’s because I am a Cheshire cat.” the Cat explained, widening his grin. This surprised Alirin, she didn’t know cats could talk either. Alirin took a moment to think about her situation and finally decided that the Cat looked nice enough and so she would keep talking to him.

“Cheshire Puss,” she started, unsure if he would appreciate the nickname, but he grinned on and she decided it was going well. ”Would you tell me, please, which way I ought to go from here?”

“That greatly depends on where you want to go.” the Cat responded.

“I don’t much care where –“Alirin began.

“Then it doesn’t matter which way you go.” said the Cat.

“- as long as I end up somewhere.” she finished.

“Oh, well you are sure to do that,” the Cat responded with a grin, “as long as you walk long enough.”

Suddenly the cat disappeared, one piece at a time, the grin being the last to go. Alirin stood there for a moment with her mouth gaping open. Suddenly the grin was back, and after a time the rest of him was back as well. He continued to smile like nothing happened.

“If you go in that direction you’ll meet the Queen of Hearts” he pointed with his paw, then hung upside down and pointed a different way, “that direction is the Gryphon,” now he was pointing with his long tail, “and that way is the Duchess. Visit any you like, they’re all mad.”

“But, I don’t want to be among mad people. I’ve had quite enough of that today.” Alirin responded.

“You can’t help that,” the Cat said. “We’re all mad here: I’m mad, you’re mad.”

“How do you know I’m mad?” Alirin asked.

“You must be, or else you wouldn’t be here.” the Cat said, as his tail disappeared and reappeared.

“And how do you know you are mad?” she asked.

“A dog’s not mad, you grant that?”

“I suppose so.” Alirin decided, though she had seen quite a bit of odd dog-like behaviour today.

“Well, a dog growls when it is angry and wags its tail when it is pleased. I, on the other hand, growl when I’m angry and wag my tail when I’m pleased.” he explained with a grin.

Alirin took a moment to think about this and realised something, “wait, you just said the same thing twice. You said both you and a dog do the same thing!”

“Yes.” he said, like he knew his point had made no sense all along. “I’m a dog when I’m invisible.”

As if to prove his point he slowly went invisible. “See?”

“No, actually I can’t see.” Alirin answered, quite frustrated at all the madness she was witnessing today, and quite relieved that Dineau could not turn invisible or grin, for this was far too disconcerting.

“Oh, what a shame.” the Cheshire Cat responded, as he slowly became visible again. But something very odd was happening. As a piece of him would appear it would then fall to the grown. Eventually there was a pile of various cat parts at Alirin’s feet. All that was left was a floating grin.

“Well! I’ve often seen a cat without a grin, but a grin without a cat!” Alirin thought, “It’s the most curious thing I’ve ever seen in my life!”

For a time Alirin just stared up at the grin, trying not to look at the odd pile of cat pieces in front of her.

“Well,” said the Grin, widening to its widest yet, “that was dreadfully painful.”

The grin then fell to the ground and rested on top of the pile. Alirin again just stared in shock before hurrying down the path yet again.

~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~

* my RL cat's name is Beau, and Alice's cat's name is Dina

Dead
Fea - Red Queen - Cobbler - lynched Day 1
Boro - the Caterpillar - Shirriff - killed Night 2
Sally - the Dormouse - Wolf - lynched Day 2
Izzy - White Rabbit - Ordinary - killed Night 3
Glirdan - Mad Hatter - Wolf - lynched Day 3
Greenie - White Night - Seer - killed Night 4
Nogrod – Cheshire Cat – Wolf – lynched Day 4

Alive
Wintywinty – Tweedledum
Mira – March Hare
Agan – Queen of Hearts
Inzil – King of Hearts
Shasta – Knave of Hearts
Lottie – Duchess
Nerwen – the Dodo
Legate – Jabberwocky
Morsul – the Mock Turtle
Nienna – White Queen
Skip – Humpty Dumpty
Lommy – the Gryphon
Brinniel – Tweedledee

It is still Night 5.

wilwarin538

04-15-2010, 07:32 PM

~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~

Alirin continued to walk down the path until she could hear some talking up ahead. As she got closer she could see a man with red hearts all over him who looked like a king and a woman all in white who looked like a queen. Alirin listened closely.

“Do you have any idea who may have stolen my tarts?” the King of Hearts was asking.

“No, no, I haven’t the slightest idea.” the White Queen replied, looking rather nervous about something. “Have you asked your wife?”

“Yes, and now she is on a rampage, beheading anyone who even says the word ‘tarts’.” He said, rather mournfully. “I’m all for an execution, and especially for whoever stole them, but she is exaggerating just slightly.”

“Indeed. Indeed.” the White Queen said, fiddling with something behind her back.

“I heard the Red Queen died. Is that why you look upset?” the King of Hearts asked.

“Well, no, because I’m rather pleased she is dead. We were enemies after all.” the White Queen responded, adjusting her shawl that kept coming loose from the wind.

“If you’re nervous about my missing tarts I assure you it will be taken care of. I’m holding a trial later today to find the culprit, so you shouldn’t be upset by it.” the King of Hearts said, trying to console her.

“That isn’t it either.” the White Queen said as she pulled a sword out from behind her back. “I was hoping I wouldn’t have to do this, but now I must, because I think you might be evil.”

With that she whipped out a sword, and off was the King of Hearts’ head. Alirin gasped in horror and was about to leave when she could hear the White Queen crying. Feeling bad, and rather curious, she walked up to her slowly and helped her adjust her shawl.

“If you feel so bad about killing him, then why did you do it in the first place?” Alirin asked, looking quite fearfully at the sword the Queen had dropped on the ground.

“It’s my job, as a Hunter. I thought he was evil, but I was wrong.” she said, looking extremely sad, so Alirin didn’t bother to ask her what she meant by ‘hunter’.

“I wish I could manage to be glad.” the Queen said sadly, “Only I never remember the rule. You must be very happy, living in the wood and being very glad whenever you like.”

“Though it is very lonely here, and not a very nice place!” Alirin objected, as tears ran down her face.

“Oh, don’t go on like that!” the Queen consoled, “Consider what a great girl you are! Consider all you’ve gone through today! Consider what o’clock it is! Consider anything, just don’t cry!”

“Can you keep from crying by considering things?” Alirin asked, wiping away the two tears.

“That’s the way it’s done, no one can do two things at once.” she explained. “let’s start by considering your age, how old are you?”

“7 and a half.” Alirin answered.

“I am one hundred and one, 3 months and a day!” the White Queen said.

“I can’t believe that!”

“Why not?” the Queen asked.

“It is impossible!”

“Well, when I was your age I could believe six impossible things before bre-eakfast! Bre-e-eakfast, Bre-e-eh” the Queen answered. Alirin looked closely at her, trying to understand the odd noises, but the White Queen had suddenly turned into a little sheep!

Alirin decided to take the little sheep with her for company, but suddenly a large animal (that she would later learn is called a Bandersnatch) came running out of the wood and gobbled up the little queen sheep and ran away.

She was certainly well prepared to go home now.

~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~

Dead
Fea - Red Queen - Cobbler - lynched Day 1
Boro - the Caterpillar - Shirriff - killed Night 2
Sally - the Dormouse - Wolf - lynched Day 2
Izzy - White Rabbit - Ordinary - killed Night 3
Glirdan - Mad Hatter - Wolf - lynched Day 3
Greenie - White Night - Seer - killed Night 4
Nogrod – Cheshire Cat – Wolf – lynched Day 4
Nienna - White Queen - Hunter - killed Night 5
Inzil - King of Hearts - Ordinary - hunter killed Night 5

Alive
Wintywinty – Tweedledum
Mira – March Hare
Agan – Queen of Hearts
Shasta – Knave of Hearts
Lottie – Duchess
Nerwen – the Dodo
Legate – Jabberwocky
Morsul – the Mock Turtle
Skip – Humpty Dumpty
Lommy – the Gryphon
Brinniel – Tweedledee

It is now Day 5.

Shastanis Althreduin

04-15-2010, 08:18 PM

Bad - We lost Nienna, who most considered innocent.

Worse - We also lost our Hunter.

Worst - We also lost an innocent Inzil.

I didn't see any gifted vibes from Nienna, so I'm concluding that she was killed because so many thought her innocent (in fact, I can't remember anyone suspecting her for real).

It was pretty clear her prime suspect was Inzil, but I wonder if looking at who else she suspected will tell us anything.

Shastanis Althreduin

04-15-2010, 08:54 PM

7Which leaves:
Lommy - I suspect her because she suspects me... this seems like something that always happens when we play together
Glirdy - no read as of yet
Zil - no read
Shasta - no real read but no good feelings either
Legate - jumped on the Lottie bandwaggon
Brinn - hmmm she seems like she is forcing normalcy... but I can't really tell

Possible suspects: Lommy, me, Legate, Brinn

Morsul's vote for Sally already toDay looks very opportunistic. To me it feels like a wolf realizing that our known innocent is pretty much going to lead a crusade against a fellow wolf and wanting to seem more innocent by being the first to join.

Possible suspect: Morsul.

No Idea/ No Read
Nog - seems not like the Nog I've played with before... I don't yet know what this says
Zil - is getting a rather lot of suspicion lately but I'm not quite sure why... he just seems a bit defensive for my taste at the moment.
Shasta - something about him isn't sitting quite right with me
Morsul – I didn’t like his opportunistic vote for Sally yesterDay
Legate – what is a little concerning about Legate right now is that Sally voted for him Day One… this is nothing against Legate but it makes me question my general tendency to trust him
WinWin - need to hear more from him toDay

Possible suspects: me, Morsul, Legate, Winty

----------

Appear once: Lommy, Brinn, Winty

Appear twice: myself, Morsul, Legate

I'm not sure how much this tells us, since practically everyone considered Nienna innocent, but it might have worried the last wolf. I think I'm going to look at Morsul next (since I already suspect him), but it may take a bit.

Nerwen

04-15-2010, 09:07 PM

I'm not sure how much this tells us, since practically everyone considered Nienna innocent, but it might have worried the last wolf. I think I'm going to look at Morsul next (since I already suspect him), but it may take a bit.

As Nienna didn't go strongly after any currently living player, I doubt she was killed just to eliminate a threat. But Morsul needs looking at anyway.

Nerwen

04-15-2010, 09:15 PM

I might have a look at Brinniel. I can't say I seriously suspect her all– but there is that thing I mentioned yesterDay, about her quoting me out of context and apparently using that to misrepresent my actions on Day 3. Now people can do that in good faith if they're in a hurry– but, when you couple that with the fact that Brinn herself really was fairly reluctant to lynch Glirdy– at least that's the way I remember it– it does make me wonder.

Likely nothing will come of this, but I may as well get it out of the way.

Loslote

04-15-2010, 09:38 PM

Trust
Lottie

Trust mostly
Shasta
Nerwen
Skip
Legate
Agan

Trust more than not/Unsure
Skip
WW
Brinn
Mira
Lommy

Suspect
Morsul

I'll probably only vote someone from the last two categories, and probably Morsul.

I'll look more closely later at the Lommy/Nog thing I noticed yesterDay, but now that I think about it, I don't think it'll amount to much.

Nerwen

04-15-2010, 09:42 PM

Brinn, Day One

#20 (http://www.forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=626641&postcount=20)
Fea's vote "very Fea-ish", probably innocent but needs explanation.

#25 (http://www.forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=626647&postcount=25)
Asks if wintywinty's vote is valid; if so, doesn't like "silly random throwaway votes".

#123 (http://www.forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=626791&postcount=123)
Doesn't like Lottie-wagon, but cautions against creating a second bandwagon. Doesn't want to drop retractables.

#148. (http://www.forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=626818&postcount=148)
Doesn't like suspicion of Legate. Votes Fea for her random vote.

Comments: So far Brinniel looks good. While her vote might seem like a contradiction of her earlier position on Fea, in the meantime Fea had had a chance to explain herself and had just posted silly banter.

EDIT:X'd with Lottie; fixed formatting.

Morsul the Dark

04-15-2010, 09:42 PM

One wolf left AWESOME job guys!

here reading am "shocked" by the already present suspicion on me:rolleyes:

Nerwen

04-15-2010, 09:46 PM

Hey, Lottie, you've listed Skip in two different categories.

Morsul the Dark

04-15-2010, 09:50 PM

she made sure he wasn't skipped... haha...wow.. that was terrible...

Morsul the Dark

04-15-2010, 10:28 PM

Doing through noticed this

Skip:
That doesn't seem like a thing that would prevent someone from checking up on the thread, him being in his own flat and all.

(Reffering to my kitchen painting)

Skip if you only knew how easily distracted I am that kitchen would never be finished if I checked up on the downs;)

Shastanis Althreduin

04-15-2010, 10:44 PM

Either the voters are using their one time retractable votes in silly posts(therefore wasting them) or they'll later say when voting an innocent "I realized they were innocent After voting but could do nothing about it...sorry.

Either way I find the votes meaningless and suspect.

Other than that have 3 minutes till I leave for work won't get much done today I'll be on for an hour later at which point I'll have to vote.

Dislikes people using their retractables so early, finds the votes "meaningless". Huh?

Legate I love you for actually getting my point even if you disagree

Have to read more in depth though have to vote shortly.

And why am I always classified with "Knee-Jerk" reactions? I see something I form a hypothesis everyone calls it "knee-jerk" I call it Scientific method

Taughtus Taught us that!

ok reading

One of many "why me" posts. No real content.

Had this argument last time maybe I should do this "so and so "FEELS" off" somehow acceptable me seeing something I find odd and pointing it out that's weird?

Anywho... No one pops out want to vote agan... but won't because That Would be knee jerk... I do have to vote soon though

(Responding to post 80 forgot to quote it.)
__________________

Wants support for voting Agan. More TIP syndrome (taking it personal).

First post vote followed by "Day one who cares?" then a bit of the Tweedles poem.

++WintyWinty

Throws away his vote on Winty the newbie.

Let's all use our retractable votes so if a wold happens to trick us we're done. With my track record I'm saving mine

Intends to keep his retraction.

Plans? I have none last few times it came down to my vote I made the wolves win, I'm going to try Not to repeat that

No content. I will point out, Morsul, that your last vote did that because you voted not two hours after the day started. Just saying.

Agan changed Avatars mid-game Obviously Evil!!!!(Joking)

Jokingly suspects Agan. Not-so-jokingly looked for support for her lynch earlier, though.

#223 - no content - not quoting.

Boro voted Glirdan then changed to Fea.(An example of a well used retraction by the way)

Methinks either Glirdan is suspiciou or the wolves picked the person who pushed their cobbler friend over the edge.or they considered it the least traceable.

Suggests reasoning for Boro-kill.

Maybe Lottie is the other Sherriff? Boro switched votes to save her?

Nothing suspicious here.

I'm Fairly certain I won't be on before DL today so I always suspect Sally however Lotties Post was nicely confirming

++Sally

If I can I MAY have to use my retraction today if I'm back in time.

However Sally is quite smart whether or not I agree with her. I don't think she'd read my sarcasm as anything but, also she says she wanted to try and get me lynched but "no one would go for that" She admits trying to start a Bandwagon.

Have fun I'll Try to be on later.

Opportunistic vote with suspicious reasons. Don't like it.

Popping in for one post while waiting for my fiance to return.

I voted because I thought it'd be the only time I could. Second... well there is no second.

No content.

#356 has no content either.

you did insult me you called me a lemming sorry the tone in my post was off as well. I knoew what you meant I had nothing to add but that

And for the record every time I try to defend myself everyone says "WOAH Over the top response must be a Wolf"

Though I'm not changing my vote I like the tone of Sally's defenses(I just don't believe them)

Sally I got your back... sort of

Which in itself seems overdefensive. Also, very weak, but could that last bit be a wolf-Morsul apologizing for bussing a teammate?

#381 has no content.

This Post has been buzzing through my head All Day...

If Glirdan's innocent and we lynched him we'd just lynch Sally today... So what pay off would there be to lie? To last One more day?

I think Glirdan's a wolf... Sally I think was planning a False Seer reveal, just look at this post:

Quote:
Originally Posted by satansaloser2005 View Post
Inzil: Not a wolf. Plain and simple. Don't ask me how I know, I just do.
The move only makes sense to gain our trust... Gaining one day isn't worth it. I mean 4 out of 16.... 3 out of 16 still gives us lots of time still I just don't see a one day gain worth it.

I sort of agree here, about Sally and the possible false-Seer-reveal, but he fails to mention it would also out the real Seer if it only gave one more day to a Sallywolf. Also, suspects Glirdan early on a bit here.

Yeah but Inzil I think a false seer reveal would gain her more time than the one day gained from the lynch.

I don't understand the motivation otherwise.

This post makes me think I might have misinterpreted the previous post. Morsul, care to clarify?

This vote looks more opportunistic than the Sally-vote. Also it's another early vote.

[quote=Morsul]Only here for a minute I voted Early because I keep colliding badly with the times of the game I'm usually free all night phase and have maybe an hour or so during the day normally at the beginning.

"It" means going with my gut. Also like to point out I still have me retractable. If I didn't I might not have voted at all This way If I see something I can change... Hasn't happened yet. I'm 95% sure of this vote. I really Really Can figure out any other way Sally's vote and cry to Nienna makes sense.

Lastly I'm rushing this post... To the person who said they'd eat their hat if Nienna and I were Pack mates Don't worry your Hat shall remain in tact.

See you all tomorrow(Maybe)

RL reasons for voting early. Not much suspicious here, I think.

#559 is expressing sadness over Greenie's death.

Moving away from Greenie for the moment...

I was shocked by the pick if I do say so myself not to toot my own horn I was sure I was going to be the victem to days in a row with the right vote... That NEVER happens for me(I'm excited) keep it alive folks!

I'm looking into Agan this is going to be a looong loong post coming up... sorry

Generally if you're starting a phrase with "not to toot my own horn, but..." it's probably a good idea not to use said phrase. Anyway. Starts "looking at" Agan again.

I don't suspect her that's the point I was fully prepared to vote Greenie today.

I need to look at people I don't suspect. Agan sprang to mind.

"her" refers to Greenie. I'm confused - so you were fully prepared to vote Greenie even though you didn't suspect her? Also, what's this about not suspecting Agan? *looks up*

keep alive folks is "wolfy"? really three days cobbler wolf wolf youd Don't want to keep that trend alive?

Defends himself and his comment.

Why'd I say it? because I'm psyched this is the furthest I've ever made it on the winning side in WW I said it more for myself...

Defends the same comment.

Agan 37

Wow that's a long post.

Defends Winty from Nerwen... calls Nerwen suspicious for asking a reasonable question. Talks about wolf strategies.

Agan 55 Seriously... Take the keyboard away from Agan!

Another long post. boils down to a lot of not much. I still think he want's everyone to get rid of their votes... I t just seems bad what if we Need them later? no one has "Extra" votes this time retractables are an excellent tool, for us and yes sadly for the wolves but with only two wolves left it's even better for us to have them.

Agan 62

List. Most Likely to vote me.... These three show an odd trend however Each One mentions a slip-up maybe She keeps saying something like "Wow I'm glad no one thought I was a wolf for that." As if relieved no one picked up on her mess up.... but only three posts not enough to worry about yet.

By the way While I'm writing this I have another tab going checking on whats going on real time. Shasta thinks Agan was dreamed... Well She May have been but how would we Know that? I think someone's trying to get me to look somewhere else as is Lottie. Now all three can't be evil but One may be

Agan 80

Agan keeps talking about Cobbler appearing "innocent" to seers... I've never known this rule/idea. Seems to want us to not entirely trust our seer granted this point after Fea's lynching is moot it is still strange to advocate. Oh and real quick I'd like to point out 2 wolf votes maybe my logic Does work sometimes!

Agan 88

Mostly response to me. First off thanks for calling me Lazy, That was pretty cool of you. Second I take these games too seriously if I'm "Half Hearted it's because This time around I'm trying to have fun, which I am. Lastly uses retractable taking own advice good move.

110

Quote:
Imagine some innocents, a couple of wolves. The innocents have used (most of) their retractions, the wolves haven't. The wolves can vote for whomever is the most convenient for them and then, when most other votes have been given, unite and direct their votes towards an innocent who is lynched, and nobody else can do anything. Because I can see that scenario, I'd rather eliminate it before the wolves have even a chance to try it.
That's why you keep it and not use it. Though it seems Sally used hers as well maybe have their pack-mates keep theirs while trying to get the rest of us to use ours?

247 At this point she's using a lot of 'Yeah I'm a wolf ha ha' lines in some of her posts too many for my comfort as Sally said wolves can hide behind these jokes and she's bee using them a lot.

I'd like to point out Lottie has Agan Greeni Glirdan and Sally as the wolves Ok Greenie is wrong but the other two are right... So agan this is a very very Small point against you tiny (It won't be a vote maker don't worry.)

249 rebukes Lottie... good show...

At this point Agan is on the fence for me. I won't vote her unless I see something amazing in the rest of her posts.

252
Suspects Inzil for listening to him... Another Argument I've had. Why do we bother listing reasons unless we expect to persuade anyone? Why am I doing this post? Sure I could look through say "Hey agan's cleared/guilty(let you know when I'm done)" Then everyone would say "where's your reasoning?" I read other peoples' analyses and like their reasons so I I take that was a reason to vote. I'm sorry about the way I do things.

This isn't only Agan's view but I find it all too common.

281

I really don't like the way Agan's going after people who haven't used their retractions seems to be an easy way to pick off people and have her dream scenario of only wolves having theirs left.

285

Line she does something she condemns others for she take's nienna's word and changes suspicion. I'm Opportunistic Lazy a Horrible Person should be lynched right now and so what I voted for two wolves so what obviously I some horrible person.... (Sorry, Serenity NOW)

489

Last Paragraph agains says she put Sally as supicious based only on what others said isn't that terrible thing to do Agan... "Do as I say not as I do?"

511
1 Am I'm really sleepy... Look I Can't find anything outside of some name calling I feel unfairly towards me I can't find anything Agan is cleared in my mind....

Nerwen Tomorrow... or later today whatever time it is...She's always under my radar.

Agan is cleared in your eyes? Are you sure we're looking at the same post?

Lottie
Quote:
1. And you said Agan was rude!
Should have added a smilie I meant it jokingly I didn't call her lazy. However point taken I apologize.

Again I keep saying it because I'm excited I never list reasons why I voted the way I did? I did list them. I found Sally suspicious and after reading I believe your analysis it seemed confirmed. I voted Glirdan because of Sally's post it made NO sense any other way for me. and Winty voted because of a first post vote followed by "Day 1 who cares"

Defends the same comment a third time. Also, I don't think you can classify yourself as a newbie anymore, Morsul.

#591 has no content.

#592 also has no content.

It doesn't say sees "Innocent or Wolf" it says "Their ROLE" Why wouldn't we trust a seers dream Agan... Sorry I'm back on that because I just went through the rules it was bugging me.

and Lottie I feel a challenge there... a wolf saying "I'm beyond suspicion come get me. Of course with no counter reveal I suppose I'll have to trust you.

Lastly I voted first for both wolves... If I knew they would get the most votes for the day I'd be A) psychic and B) insane for offering them up for slaughter.

Still looking at Nerwen.

Tries throwing suspicion onto Lottie?! Also, the defense in this post makes entirely no sense.

#595 gets a big "huh"? from me.

Painting my kitchen today so no time.

++Shasta

Quote:
Quote:
ME: So Feas was a cobbler yay us.
Shasta: Something that bothers me is that Lottie has been pouncing on her four suspects for "acting too innocent", but misses this completely. Lottie, I realize you're a known innocent, but really? Just because you think you've spotted all four wolves in the first day doesn't mean you stop looking at anyone else and focus solely on those four. For example, several of the points in your "Sal-alysis" are pretty clearly grasping at straws.
grasping at straws this isn't?

Quote:
Like I said... day 2 easy lynch. With Morsul being opportunistic and Winty being bandwaggonish (going to get reasons for your votes from your packmates tonight, winty?), it's kind of hard to choose, but...
++Morsul
Gave my reasons.

473 and 474 backpeddles pretty quick

534 votes greenie...

Have fun! I need a WW break so I probably won't be back before DL(Sometimes you have to put the computer down.)

No, it's not "grasping at straws". *irritated*

-------------

Conclusion - I think Morsul looks furry.

Morsul the Dark

04-15-2010, 10:45 PM

Wintywinty – not guilty... voted day 1 but haven't seen anything beond that

Mira – Last of the Tea Party possibly guilty

Agan – Innocent

Shasta – Probably guilty

Lottie – innocent

Nerwen – The devil wears prada

Legate – no idea

Morsul – Innocent...Ordo... and backup lynch if need be

Skip – Innocent

Lommy – Hopefully innocent

Brinniel – no idea

Morsul the Dark

04-15-2010, 10:52 PM

Ok obviously my grammar needs a bit of work... I wasn't comparing myself to Winty I was stating my reason for voting him... Lottie said I gave no reasons so I threw out the reasons I voted my votes.

Morsul the Dark

04-15-2010, 10:56 PM

Brinniel

04-15-2010, 11:08 PM

Brinniel quotes one thing I said about Glirdan completely out of context, and then uses that to show I was against lynching him– ignoring everything else I said that Day.
I might have a look at Brinniel. I can't say I seriously suspect her all– but there is that thing I mentioned yesterDay, about her quoting me out of context and apparently using that to misrepresent my actions on Day 3. Now people can do that in good faith if they're in a hurry– but, when you couple that with the fact that Brinn herself really was fairly reluctant to lynch Glirdy– at least that's the way I remember it– it does make me wonder.
First off, no I never said you were against lynching him. I said you seemed hesitant about a Glirdan lynch...not the same as being totally against. If you were completely for lynching Glirdan all along, then I really didn't get that impression.

Secondly, any slight reluctance I showed in voting Glirdan wasn't so much of me questioning his role, but I was frustrated I had to vote early because I wanted to give him a chance to defend himself first. I've been lynched before without having the chance to defend myself and regardless of role, it really does suck to have that happen. Well, he never did show up to protest the cases against him, but I didn't know at the time he'd turn out to be a complete no-show. Also, I never got much of a chance to look at other players aside from Glirdan, which would've been nice. But honestly, I most likely would've voted him anyway.

Okay, it's late again, so I won't be looking into anything until tomorrow. If I'm correct, there is one wolf left among nine players with unknown roles. How awesome it would be for the village to lynch the final wolf toDay, though I don't think it'll be so easy. I don't envy the final wolf; I've been placed in such a position before and it really is horrible. But just because only one wolf is left by Day 5 doesn't mean we can't lose. Which is why even though the odds are in our favour, we still need to work to find the last wolf and not get lazy. In other words, keep up the good work. :)

Brinniel

04-15-2010, 11:15 PM

Oh, don't be ridiculous, Morsul. Some people may suspect you, but no one has voted for you yet. For all you know, another player may pop up later in the Day as more suspicious. So let's not be hasty here.

A request: Don't just throwaway your votes, people. No innocents have been lynched yet, and I refuse to break that streak! :smokin:

Mirandir

04-15-2010, 11:17 PM

Here's a move for you Shasta and Lottie... and Skip... and it'll prove Lommy right... and since Nienna suspected me I'll be under fire anyway. You guys need to look at other people for the wolves I'm distracting you I'm cluttering your heads.

I need to get out of the way for the good of the village

++Morsul

I'm serious vote for me so you can get to the real wolf.

This is the stupidest move ever and does absolutely nothing to allay the suspicions I voiced the other day. However, Form is currently distracting me and I should have been in bed hours ago, so more about that later.

Nerwen

04-15-2010, 11:19 PM

#236 (http://www.forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=626954&postcount=236)
Believes Loslote's claim. Result of lynch fairly good. Thinks it likely at least one wolf would have been trying to save Lottie (this was true).

#277 (http://www.forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=627003&postcount=277)
winty's stated reason for voting her absurd, but probably just newbie-ish-ness. Agrees with me that we shouldn't ignore Lottie-voters either. Skip and Nog "seem reasonable so far". Ask Lommy to back up her claim that there were actually good reasons to vote Loslote.

#408 (http://www.forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=627144&postcount=408)
Now understands what Lommy meant, but disagrees. Greenie's vote ill-reasoned, but not necessarily wolfish. Nienna and Shasta look somewhat bad for their Day One votes. Responds to Aganzir, who pointed out that there was no apparent way winty could have known Brinn's reputation: says winty has now admitted making it up, and still thinks him just a n00b. Doesn't like Mira's vote for winty. Agrees Sally is suspicious, and can understand why people are voting her (Sally had five votes at this point). Unlikely all Lottie's suspects are wolves. Izzy and I are under her radar.

Comments: Failure to take advantage of winty looks good, sudden late suspicion of Sally– whom she had never mentioned before– looks a bit dubious.

#413 (http://www.forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=627149&postcount=413)
Votes Sally (6) "for reasons stated above".

#416 (http://www.forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=627152&postcount=416)
Agrees with Glirwolf that wintywinty "really hasn't made much of an improvement from yesterDay" and might be a wolf, but doesn't really think so.

#418. Asks if deadline was extended.

#427. Had missed the post about extended deadline.

General comments: Nothing really suspicious here either. The only things that do worry me slightly are the overall careful and bland tone of Brinn's posting, and the fact that she showed no sign of suspecting Sally (unless I missed something) until the latter had five votes.

Sallywolf says here (http://www.forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=627076&postcount=345) that she has "no worries" about Brinn and Nogwolf (http://www.forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=627086&postcount=355) singles Sally's trust of Brinn and Zil (innocent) out to comment on. If Sally was indeed planning to play the Seer, this would tend to support Brinn's innocence.

EDIT:X'd since my last post

Loslote

04-15-2010, 11:20 PM

Hey, Lottie, you've listed Skip in two different categories.

Yeah, sorry 'bout that. Really he could go in either category for me, so I put him in both intending to put him in one or the other in the end, but forgot. Although to be honest, that really does best illistrate how I think of him, so meh.

Wintywinty – not guilty... voted day 1 but haven't seen anything beond that

Mira – Last of the Tea Party possibly guilty

Agan – Innocent

Shasta – Probably guilty

Lottie – innocent

Nerwen – The devil wears prada

Legate – no idea

Morsul – Innocent...Ordo... and backup lynch if need be

Skip – Innocent

Lommy – Hopefully innocent

Brinniel – no idea

:eek: What the hey is this?? IC banter on Day 5? The devil wears prada? What does that even mean? How does this help anything? It doesn't even make sense! :rolleyes:

However...let's throw a little wrench in the bandwaggon.

Morsul probably is not furry. If he was Sally's packmate, they'd seriously both vote Wilwa Day 1 for putting them through this. They do NOT work well together in the least. Morsul wouldn't even play in the same game as her last game.

I have no idea whatsoever what he was thinking when he voted for himself, but it could easily be innocent. *grumbles*

EDIT: xed since Morsul's vote.

Nerwen

04-15-2010, 11:41 PM

First off, no I never said you were against lynching him. I said you seemed hesitant about a Glirdan lynch...not the same as being totally against. If you were completely for lynching Glirdan all along, then I really didn't get that impression.

I wasn't "completely" for lynching Glirdan from the start of the Day, no. What did you expect? I'm not the Seer, I hadn't dreamed him and I was trying to look at both sides of the case. You quoted part of an early post of mine, ignoring everything I said before and after. Then you used that to claim I was overall "wishy-wishy" about suspecting him. As I said, I really do think that's quite a distortion.

That said, however, I haven't yet seen any other reason to suspect you.

However...let's throw a little wrench in the bandwaggon.

Morsul probably is not furry. If he was Sally's packmate, they'd seriously both vote Wilwa Day 1 for putting them through this. They do NOT work well together in the least. Morsul wouldn't even play in the same game as her last game.

You know, my gut feeling currently is that you're right– but he's certainly not doing himself any favours, the way he's acting.

Shastanis Althreduin

04-15-2010, 11:45 PM

However...let's throw a little wrench in the bandwaggon.

Morsul probably is not furry. If he was Sally's packmate, they'd seriously both vote Wilwa Day 1 for putting them through this. They do NOT work well together in the least. Morsul wouldn't even play in the same game as her last game.

Remember how we chose our own roles? This is pretty meta-reasoning, Lottie. :rolleyes:

Nerwen

04-15-2010, 11:49 PM

Remember how we chose our own roles? This is pretty meta-reasoning, Lottie. :rolleyes:

I didn't take that to be her actual reason. Lottie?

Loslote

04-15-2010, 11:54 PM

Remember how we chose our own roles? This is pretty meta-reasoning, Lottie. :rolleyes:

Yeah, it is, but normal reasoning just doesn't apply to him, as he follows no rules of common sense. So, you have to think "what would an illogical Morwolf do with packmate Sally?" And the answer is, go mad, probly. :rolleyes:

EDIT: xed with Nerwen

Nerwen

04-16-2010, 12:03 AM

Confusion sets in...

Lottie, I think Shasta thinks you're saying they wouldn't have chosen to be wolves together, therefore probably aren't. Which would be silly, of course.

Shastanis Althreduin

04-16-2010, 12:09 AM

Confusion sets in...

Lottie, I think Shasta thinks you're saying they wouldn't have chosen to be wolves together, therefore probably aren't. Which would be silly, of course.

No, light of my life. I'm saying that Lottie says Wilwa wouldn't have done it to Morsul and Sally, but we chose our own roles this game by way of choosing our characters, so Wilwa didn't really do anything.

Loslote

04-16-2010, 12:11 AM

Confusion sets in...

Lottie, I think Shasta thinks you're saying they wouldn't have chosen to be wolves together, therefore probably aren't. Which would be silly, of course.

Ah. No, I mean that they simply would not have been able to work together. You see, Morsul can't seem to work with her at all. Like, ever. :rolleyes: What I was saying is that there's no way they would have been able to be as sane as they were/are if they were driving each other crazy every Night.

Also, this sort of explains his early Sally vote - he just wants her dead every game.

EDIT: xed with Shasta...and again, not quite.

Shastanis Althreduin

04-16-2010, 12:20 AM

Ah. No, I mean that they simply would not have been able to work together. You see, Morsul can't seem to work with her at all. Like, ever. :rolleyes: What I was saying is that there's no way they would have been able to be as sane as they were/are if they were driving each other crazy every Night.

Also, this sort of explains his early Sally vote - he just wants her dead every game.

EDIT: xed with Shasta...and again, not quite.

"Not quite"? That's what I'm saying in response to what you're saying! :p

Loslote

04-16-2010, 12:27 AM

"Not quite"? That's what I'm saying in response to what you're saying! :p

Heh. All I mean is, Morsul did not act like I think he would have if Sally had been driving him insane. For that matter, neither did Sally. He acted like usual Confusing!Morsul and she acted like usual Silly Sally, not like Confusing!Morsul-with-Sally-annoying-him or like Silly-Sally-being-exasperated-by-Morsul.

Nerwen

04-16-2010, 01:02 AM

No, light of my life. I'm saying that Lottie says Wilwa wouldn't have done it to Morsul and Sally, but we chose our own roles this game by way of choosing our characters, so Wilwa didn't really do anything.

Ah, now I understand, my treasure.

Heh. All I mean is, Morsul did not act like I think he would have if Sally had been driving him insane. For that matter, neither did Sally. He acted like usual Confusing!Morsul and she acted like usual Silly Sally, not like Confusing!Morsul-with-Sally-annoying-him or like Silly-Sally-being-exasperated-by-Morsul.

Okay... and you're confident you can tell the difference? How do you think Confusing!Morsul-with-Sally-annoying-him would have acted?

Loslote

04-16-2010, 01:10 AM

Okay... and you're confident you can tell the difference? How do you think Confusing!Morsul-with-Sally-annoying-him would have acted?

A fair question. I think he would have pushed very, very hard for a lot more wolf-on-wolf. ;)

Seriously, though, he would have seemed a lot more frustrated and perhaps a bit more flamboyant. Sally tends to draw him out, usually in a bad way.

Nerwen

04-16-2010, 03:16 AM

(I've quoted all her posts in full this time, as there were only four, of medium length, and their content is interesting.)

#463
Morsul does make a good point and it's certainly a possibility. But it could go either way. It's also possible Sally was making a double bluff and he's in fact innocent.

Glirdan entered the Day late and went through the thread page by page. He started suspecting Sally from the very beginning, and I'm not sure it's clear whether he was aware she was ahead in votes when he was posting these opinions. Though if he were a wolf, I would suspect he would check the vote tally first....if innocent, maybe not. Would an evil Glirdan go after his packmate so eagerly from the beginning of his posts for the Day? If they were both wolves, it would make sense for them to go against each other at the very end since a wolf will be lynched either way. But I don't think Glirdan was a serious candidate until the end of the Day and he started suspecting Sally before that. I suppose if he saw the vote tally and decided she was a lost cause, he could've chosen to throw her under the bus to make himself look better.

Hmm...this is something to think about. It seems quite possible Glirdan is indeed a wolf, but it's definitely something we can't be certain of. It'd be a really good idea to review both Sally and Glirdan's posts from the last two Days. Unfortunately, I will have to pass that task onto someone else as I need to write a debate due tomorrow I haven't even started. I'll be available for the next several hours to make brief comments, but I just won't have any time to write anything very substantial toDay.

Comments: As I showed in my analysis (http://www.forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=627283&postcount=485), Glirdan was anything but eager in the pursuit of Sally. I thought Skip at #478 (http://www.forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=627274&postcount=478) was the first to claim that, but it was in fact Brinniel.

#468
So it seems Nienna's vote was indeed the deciding vote of the Day. If I counted correctly, the final tally was 8-6. Had Nienna voted for Glirdan instead, it would've been a tie at 7-7 and since Glirdan would've received the last vote, he would've been lynched. So what does this say about Nienna?

If Glirdan is a wolf, she could be anything. If Glirdan is innocent, it would seem more likely that Nienna is innocent. Of course, it is always possible a Nienna-wolf threw her packmate under the bus, though that would've been a bold move since she did have the opportunity to save her. She would have to be pretty confident her team would do just as well if not better without Sally, or believe that Sally would probably be lynched soon anyway so she might as well make herself look better. I'm just not sure how likely that scenario actually is.

Btw, no one has mentioned Izzy's death. My first thought is she was an easy kill because she didn't receive much attention from most players. Though I wonder if there could be more to it. Perhaps it'd be a good idea to look through her posts too...if only I had the time.

Comments: All fair points and logical– the focus on the implications of an innocent-Glirdan scenario does remind me of Nogrod, but that may be coincidence.

#484.
Seeing Nienna's quotes about Sally, considering she was suspecting her from earlier in the Day and the way she went about suspecting, I'd be really surprised if she wasn't innocent...in the scenario that Glirdan is innocent.

So what to do with Glirdan...

One thing I worry is that if he is innocent, this is a great opportunity for the wolves to jump in and push for his lynching since I suspect there may be a pretty heavy bandwagon against him toDay. But on the other hand, we can't really know his role for sure until he is lynched...knowing his role would certainly shed light on some things.

I'd love to hear Glirdan's defense, but unfortunately I don't think that'll be happening before I leave for the Day.

#492. Casts second vote on Glirdan
Looking at the voting list, Mira's vote looks quite bad not only because of the nature of the vote that I mentioned yesterDay I didn't like, but the timing too (Sally was really racking up in votes by then). Actually, Shasta looks just as bad for the timing of his vote, but I can't remember his reasons behind the vote, so I should perhaps check that out later. In any case, they both warrant a reason for me to better look at them come toMorrow.

But I must be going now, so here's my vote:

++Glirdan

I hate making early votes and I still wish I could've actually heard what he may have to say before making this vote, but I won't be back toDay most likely.

His role could go either way, and knowing what it is would clear up some things. Even if he did turn out innocent, his death wouldn't exactly be a devastating blow to the village considering we are ahead in the game lynching a wolf and cobbler in two Days...and not to mention that his death could provide useful clues, whatever his role may be. If we don't lynch him toDay, we'll just be wondering the same things about him come toMorrow. So at this point, unless a more suspicious candidate comes forth, he seems the best choice for toDay.

General comments: Well, this is interesting. She talks about Glirdan in every post. Agrees it's "quite possible" he might be a wolf but makes no points of her own against him, other than that he might always have thrown Sally under the bus when it became clear she was doomed, and later that knowing his role would be useful. Raises the following points in his favour: Sally might have been double-bluffing to frame him; he started late and was still reading while posting, therefore probably unaware Sally was in trouble; he attacked her "eagerly" from the start (no he didn't); he suspected her before he himself was a serious candidate; if he was innocent it would be "a great opportunity for the wolves to jump in and push for his lynching"; finally, he hadn't had a chance to defend himself.

Yes, she voted Glirdan– but it was only the second vote and she talks about him as a sort of not-all-that suspicious default candidate, while raising points against other players.

What to make of this? If I had to go by Day 3 alone, I'd say she might well be Glirdan's packmate. Yet, her Day One and Two posting seems innocent on the whole, and I've seen nothing there to suggest links to the other two known wolves.

She has already talked about some of her Day 3 posting at #675 toDay.
any slight reluctance I showed in voting Glirdan wasn't so much of me questioning his role, but I was frustrated I had to vote early because I wanted to give him a chance to defend himself first. I've been lynched before without having the chance to defend myself and regardless of role, it really does suck to have that happen. Well, he never did show up to protest the cases against him, but I didn't know at the time he'd turn out to be a complete no-show. Also, I never got much of a chance to look at other players aside from Glirdan, which would've been nice. But honestly, I most likely would've voted him anyway.

Aganzir

04-16-2010, 04:21 AM

I'm disappointed Inzy died because when Nog was revealed as a wolf, I came to the conclusion that it was very unlikely they were wolves together (the way Nog attacked Inzil because of his phrasing and the way Inzil reacted)... But ah well maybe it's better this way.

Today I want to have a look at Nerwen.

What we have left is a wolf, the ranger, a sheriff, the unicorn - and 7 ordos, one of whom the cursed.

It was pretty clear her prime suspect was Inzil, but I wonder if looking at who else she suspected will tell us anything.
It should be done whether it will tell us something or not... But I'm afraid she was killed because of what you said; probably everybody considered her innocent. And the last wolf might have thought her death might help frame Inzil.

And Lottie is still alive. In addition to Boro (obviously enough special) and Greenie (for her Nog suspicion), the wolves have killed Izzy and Nienna, neither of whom anybody suspected... One possibility is that the wolves are really desperate to find the cursed and don't care much about whom they kill (either they get a gifted or a potential cursed), so they simply start with the ones that are suspected the least.

I don't think Morsul is the last wolf. Yes there are points against him, but actually I think he looks pretty innocentish. And his self-vote... Of course it might be a bluff, but I have a hard time seeing a wolf do that, unless he has already given up without a fight.

since Nienna suspected me I'll be under fire anyway.
I wouldn't have thought so. I think she was killed mostly for looking so innocent, not because of her suspicions.

If I'm correct, there is one wolf left among nine players with unknown roles.
Among ten players with unknown roles, actually (although for each of the innocents, it's technically nine players).

If he was Sally's packmate, they'd seriously both vote Wilwa Day 1 for putting them through this.
While I agree Morsul probably isn't a wolf, I wouldn't use that as an explanation... After all we chose our roles ourselves. Oh yes Shasta said the same.

**

As for yesterday...

I think Lommy looks very innocent - unless the wolves planned that they would go after one another whenever there was a reason to, and the one who survived should ensure their victory. And if Lommy is part of such conspiracy, she will have to do the dishes for a month. :p

And where's your effort Agan? Oh, the moral highground is such a slippery thing... Why don't you try and go find the wolves? Are you so happy with the presumed outcome that you can just lay back and enjoy?
I suppose this warrants an answer... My effort went to sleep with my brain. I've had a very busy week with little time to post, and I'd have to adopt a totally new playing style to be as productive as I'd like to be. I should have more time today (at least if I don't attend a lecture about the portrayal of LGBT in movies) though.
And yes, yesterday I was feeling pretty positive about the outcome of the lynch.

This is clearly written from the perspective of a wolf, without stating that it is a hypothetical situation. If I were a wolf I'd be crazy for offering them up for a slaughter would be a fair argument. Maybe it was just an honest mistake, or perhaps a fatal slip of the tongue?
I noticed that too but I'm more inclined to think it was an honest mistake. Morsul seems like the kind of person who doesn't pay so much attention to what he says than most of us.

That's so random that I am actually beginning to consider whether what Aganzir said about Nogrod possibly slipping his Wolf thoughts might not be true after all.
What do you mean? I don't get your comment.

Legate has been acting quite innocent thus far but I'm starting to get worried about him. Mainly because of the way he's been wavering about lynching the wolves... But then again there's sally's vote for him (albeit a throw-away).
Really, he seems way too undecided to my liking and it's not like the Legate I remember.

How do you behead a big grin anyway? Let's ask the The Queen Of Hearts shall we?
We crush his teeth one by one. :cool:

I just can't see a wolf grouping two packmates as suspicious.
Says who? :p

I think there's something funny going on between him and Lommy, but I'm not sure what yet.
Most likely it was just Nogwolf trying to frame innocent Lommy and get us to have second thoughts about her.

Trust:
Lottie
Lommy
Shasta. Nog's attack on him yesterday might be wolf-on-wolf but I don't know if even he would draw attention to a fellow like that. And Shasta has been reasonable and innocentish anyway.

Nerwen

04-16-2010, 04:49 AM

Originally Posted by Legate
That's so random that I am actually beginning to consider whether what Aganzir said about Nogrod possibly slipping his Wolf thoughts might not be true after all.

What do you mean? I don't get your comment.

I think the reference is to this:

#618.
Would you explain to me why the wolves would wish to kill Lottie? She is not the cursed, as our moddess herself specifically told us if I recall it right. Why would they waste their kill on Lottie?Would Mr. Cat like to explain to me why the wolves would not want to kill a known innocent?
Or did you just betray something of your night talk? Are the wolves only desperate to find the cursed now?

Legate at #630 was talking talking about reasons why Greenie was killed, and the significance of Nogwolf's peculiar take on it. Seems pretty straightforward to me.

However, Legate is probably another one who needs looking at– I mean, I don't think anyone has paid him that much attention this game, which is odd in itself.

But I doubt I'm going to have time toDay.

Aganzir

04-16-2010, 04:55 AM

I think the reference is to this:
Yeah I know, I just didn't understand what he was saying... I thought that after talking a lot about how random something (don't remember exactly what and don't bother checking) was, he said that what I had said might not be true. And it didn't make sense.

Thinlómien

04-16-2010, 05:06 AM

I'm around. Not much to say, really - not very surprised of the outcome of yesterDay's lynch (and I think it's sort of even now, Nogrod-seer busted me-wolf on Day1 last game so I don't feel very guilty of being an active part of getting him-wolf lynched based on a seer's points although the seer was not me :D) or of the Night kill choice (I agree with those who think Nienna's death pointed to eliminating someone universally thought innocent).

Also, Agan said that the last wolf is now probably not much caring about who to kill because any ordo can be the cursed and getting rid of the gifteds is good (especially now after that the hunter's gone, there's only the unicorn whose death would be undesirable for the wolf). Somehow I have the feeling, though, that Lottie's going to keep us company for some time still... :D

Off to reply quotes from yesterDay and toDay. If I have time today, I'd love to have a look to Nog's interactions with people. However, I have to be at work in two hours and I have stuff to do before that, and my evening might be busy...

Nerwen

04-16-2010, 05:51 AM

Brinniel, Day 4

#576 (http://www.forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=627456&postcount=576)
Wants to look at Glirwolf's posts, thinks other wolves may be found amongst those who were "hesitant and perhaps discouraging of the bandwagon".

#600 (http://www.forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=627503&postcount=600)
Analyses Greenie's comments on Nogrod, agrees they may well point to his being a wolf. Is surprised by Greenie's death, as she found Greenie suspicious and would have thought the wolves would keep her alive for that reason.

#604 (http://www.forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=627513&postcount=604)
Analyses Glirdan's comments on other players.

On Day 2, he started with putting Legate and Sally as suspicious. That makes Legate look better since I doubt he'd list two wolves there. He later lists Mira and winty as possible suspects. Not sure about Mira, but the way he comments on winty makes it seem like he's preparing himself to join a winty bandwagon if that were to happen on a later Day. He voted Shasta on Day 1...since it was a throwaway, it could be wolf-on-wolf, but I don't know how likely that actually is.

Comments: Nothing much. The conclusions she draws here are a bit on the thin side, though.

#606 (http://www.forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=627520&postcount=606)
Lists "those hesitant about a Glirdan lynch" (me, Zil, Skip and Aganzir), "those eager for one" (Morsul, Nienna and Lommy) and those who were just "wishy washy" (Legate and Nogrod). Legate, Agan, Nogrod and I look bad, Lommy and Nienna look good.

Comments: As I've said before, while Skip and Zil did defend Glirdan (Skip wasn't just "hesitant"!), her claim about me rests on a single out-of-context quote and is a fairly serious misrepresentation. (I haven't checked whether or not this applies to Agan as well.) And compare to
Brinn's own Day 3 posting! (http://www.forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=627693&postcount=691)

Still, is this actually wolfish? I don't know... I think a Wolfiel might have been more aware of how she herself had come across that Day. I mean, wolves tend to monitor themselves more than innocents do. (Also, at least one of those she listed as "bad" (Nogrod) was actually a wolf.)

#645 (http://www.forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=627570&postcount=645)
Suspicion list:
winty, Aganzir, Legate, Morsul and Nienna are "innocentish". She has no idea about Zil, Mira, Shasta and Lommy. I am "possibly wolfish" and Nogrod "wolfish".

Comments: While Brinn has been consistent with her suspicion on Nogwolf, she now seems to have flipped on quite a number of other players. (Possibly I've missed a post or two in between, but I can't find it.)

#646 (http://www.forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=627571&postcount=646)
Casts 6th vote on Nogrod: "there's just so many reasons that point to his guilt."

General Comments: Doesn't look too bad, really. This all *could* be a wolf-on-wolf attack, but it would have to be a very well-played one indeed, even for her.

General remarks on Brinniel, based on all 4 Days:

I've seen her as looking very good throughout most of the game, but after this I'm more on the fence about her. I mean, I certainly wouldn't say she's sprouting fur before my eyes, or anything, but there are some points against her– more than I expected to find when I started.

*shrugs*
I guess I'll have to leave it at "inconclusive", for now.

EDIT:X'd with Aganzir and Lommy; added comment.
EDIT2:Added heading.

Thinlómien

04-16-2010, 05:57 AM

YesterDay

I'm ignoring all Nog says. He definitely knew he's going down - the case was clear from the beginning of the Day, unlike with Sally looking at whose posts has been criticised - and given how Sally's toying with serious wolf-on-wolf suspicion backfired, I have hard time imagining Nog making the same mistake (ie trying to bluff or double-bluff by randomly calling his fellows either very guilty or very innocent). He's too smart for that. (Aargh now I really feel like looking at his posts after all and seeing whom he kept from overt spotlight to see who might've been his fellow. Grr. Must not fall for that.)

Someone - Lommy at least (with reservations) and I feel there was someone else as well - came over with an idea that Greenie might have dreamt of Agan and found her innocent?No, no. Let me make it clear: I first thought Greenie might've dreamt of Agan when looking just at her Day1 posts, but then when I looked at all her posts, it didn't make any sense, so I scratched that theory. I definitely don't think Agan was seer-dreamt, Greenie wouldn't have flip-flopped on her that way if she had dreamt of her. To recapitulate: I think she first dreamt either of Mira and Boro (none of her claiming somebody innocent seemed dream-based, so her Night1 dream would've been somebody whose innocent-seemingness she couldn't reasonably have commented on while she was around, which only leaves Mira and Boro who didn't post anything but banter/"hi I'm here" before Greenie left) and then probably of Skip and then of Nog.

Legate seemed rather wishy-washy about voting a wolf... again. makes me raise my eyebrows.

ToDay

Bad - We lost Nienna, who most considered innocent.

Worse - We also lost our Hunter.

Worst - We also lost an innocent Inzil.

I didn't see any gifted vibes from Nienna, so I'm concluding that she was killed because so many thought her innocent (in fact, I can't remember anyone suspecting her for real).

It was pretty clear her prime suspect was Inzil, but I wonder if looking at who else she suspected will tell us anything.Somehow, this looks rather fishy. What's bad about losing the hunter? The hunter's aim is to die. The bad thing here is that hunter chose wrong, not that we lost her. Also, even if you didn't get gifted vibes from Nienna, the wolf might have, unless you're him.

I would rather take a different view to what Nienna's death can reveal - probably not who considered her a threat in the lynch sense but rather who would've been afraid to kill her fearing she could be the hunter. For that, I would only look at Day4 posts and not draw any hasty conclusions - from what Shasta posted, I got the idea she was posting merely several vague suspects, and if a wolf looks at people's loads of vague suspicions and doesn't dare to kill them because s/he appears on the list just because the person in question might be the hunter and might be hunting him/her (and not any of the several other vague suspicions) that would really be quite paranoid of him/her.

Actually if somebody really wans to use their time with Nienna, it'd make probably more sense to see who she trusted, because if we assume the wolf was paranoid about not getting hunter-killed (and thus losing) last Night, then those people would be the ones who would've been feeling safe with killing her (especially if she trusted somebody others didn't so much, I'd raise my eyebrows).

Anyway, I'm quite divided about this Nienna issue - we could find clues in her posts but then again quite probably it's waste of time as long as we don't know how much the wolf was thinking of the hunter last Night, if at all.

I'm not sure I like Shasta's rather one-sided looking morsulysis. He seems awfully quick to come up with a posibly popular lynch candidate for toDay.

I don't like Morsul's martyr-show either, simply because as the only remaining wolf he would feel depressed already and could thus easily overreact to suspicion against him and lose faith in his chances. Although I wonder, a wolf giving up would probably have phrased it differently...?

Can somebody explain this Morsul-Sally thingy to me? Is it really so serious one of them would quit the game or do something about as drastic if they had to be packmates? Morsul voted Sally on early Day2 anyway, so if he was exasperated at being fellows with her after two Night-discussions, that would make sense. That's why I don't get how it proves his innocence...

I think Lommy looks very innocent - unless the wolves planned that they would go after one another whenever there was a reason to, and the one who survived should ensure their victory. And if Lommy is part of such conspiracy, she will have to do the dishes for a month.Trying to boss me around, eh? :mad: :p Well, anyway, I can leave the dishes for you for I'm not a part of such conspiracy - this might be seen as self-promoting, but I did vote Glirdy on Days 2 and 3 and Nog on Day4, which is something I'm not sure I'd have the guts (or idiocy/sense, depends which pow you take it) to do as their fellow wolf.

But still, I don't think that in this game we can exonerate anyone who's been voting wolves in 3-4 Days in a row. The suspicions against Sally, Glirdan and Nog were always quite clear from the beginning of the day (least so with Sally) that any wolf could've sensed the flow and jumped on the boat too. However, it might pay off to look at people who were hesitant to vote (whether they ended up voting a wolf or not) these three because I have hard time imagining a wolf who would happily join a bandwagon against a fellow three Days in a row - s/he would need to have quite a lot of self-confidence!

PS. Forgot to mention earlier, but to the one who sent me the anonymous message: although it was nothing serious, it's definitely not appreciated, be you dead or living or even not participating. Shh!

edit: xed with Nerwen, added a smiley

Morsul the Dark

04-16-2010, 06:02 AM

Lommy I would have voted myself Every Day if I were Sally's Packmate... Seriously she seems nice but is So annoying to me I can't take it.

secondly I'm not a wolf giving up I'm an innocent trying to get out of the way...

While I've done good so far I've realized I've barely actually looked at anyone I've gone off hunches and such.

Aganzir

04-16-2010, 06:05 AM

It's raining and I don't feel like walking anywhere, which means I'm going to skip the lecture (plus I would've had to leave already if I had wanted to be there on time). Which means I could try to get my post count above wilwa's. :p

Morsul -> Shasta
Agan -> Nog
Lommy -> Nog (2)
skip -> Shasta (2)
Shasta -> Nog (3)
Legate -> Nog (4)
Inziladun -> Nog (5)
Brinn -> Nog (6)
Nogrod -> Shasta (3)
ww -> Nog (7)
Lottie -> Nog (8)
Nerwen -> Nog (9)

Didn't vote: Nienna & Mira.

By the way wilwa... If I counted correctly, Mira has failed to vote twice in a row.
To be honest I wouldn't mind if she was modfired because she's posted so little it would feel weird to lynch her at this point.

So... everybody but three people voted for Nog.

First, Morsul. By the time he voted, suspicions had already started to gather around Nog. However he didn't comment on them with a word but kept talking about other stuff and voted for Shasta in the end. Somehow I think that if he and Nog had been fellows, he would've felt compelled to say something about Nog. And being so proud of voting for two wolves, if he had known Nog's role wouldn't he have voted for him, too? I think yes. And I think Morsul looks quite innocent.

Then, skippy. He gave Shasta another vote (and tied him with Nog although there were still lots of votes to come). His vote looks worse because it made Shasta a serious lynching candidate (like, if somebody wanted to save Nog, they would've voted for Shasta). In 621 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=627540&postcount=621) he talked about Green's death but didn't say anything about the did Green dream of Nog scenario, either, and he thought Shasta and Morsul might be the last wolves. He had been suspecting Shasta before though, so it wasn't anything new. He expressed second thoughts about Nog only in his vote post (when Nog had two votes).
Now, I assume that when the wolves killed Greenie, they thought she might be the seer. And I imagine Nog said to his fellows something along these lines: "If she's the seer, don't try to save me but make yourself look better because if you're caught, we're done." Because to me it just doesn't make sense that the last wolf would risk getting caught by trying to save Nog. And although the placing of skippy's vote is slightly evil (could be more of a timezone issue though), I don't think he's a wolf. Plus it's possible Green dreamed of him.

And the last to vote for Shasta was Nog himself. Either it's wolf-on-wolf or Nog wanted to give us doubts about innocent Shasta. Personally I doubt he'd throw his fellow under the spotlight like that, but then again Nogwolf is usually ready to do most anything to look better himself (however when he voted there was little chance Shasta would be lynched, it was 6-3 for Nog).
Shasta has looked pretty innocent though, and I'd rather take Nog's yesterday posts with a pinch of salt anyway.

At least for me, this has narrowed the field to those who voted for Nog. Not exactly helpful, given that most people did that, but we have to start from somewhere...

Now that we know three wolves, finding the fourth shouldn't be so difficult. The easiest thing to do would be to continue Lommy's massive summary with Nog's interactions with people, and I might do it later today if nobody else wants to undertake the task. However first I'd like to look into Nerwen's posts (but even before that I'm going to get some food & tea).

Nerwen

04-16-2010, 06:12 AM

Lommy I would have voted myself Every Day if I were Sally's Packmate... Seriously she seems nice but is So annoying to me I can't take it.

This, while utterly hilarious :D I'm afraid just sent you shooting up in my suspicions, Morsul. It sounds as if you're grasping for the excuse Lottie's supplied you.

secondly I'm not a wolf giving up I'm an innocent trying to get out of the way...

While I've done good so far I've realized I've barely actually looked at anyone I've gone off hunches and such.

Thinlómien

04-16-2010, 06:14 AM

Since I was talking about votes, I got interested... Here's a little something for y'all:

Everybody's votes thus far

Winty
Day1 Brinn
Day2 Sally
Day3 no vote
Day4 Nog

Lommy
Day1 Lottie
Day2 Glirdan
Day3 Glirdan
Day4 Nogrod

Morsul
Day1 Winty
Day2 Sally
Day3 Glirdy
Day4 Shasta

Agan
Day1 Mira
Day2 Zil
Day3 Zil
Day4 Nog

Legate
Day1 Lottie
Day2 Sally
Day3 Zil
Day4 Nog

Skip
Day1 Fea
Day2 Glirdan
Day3 Shasta
Day4 Shasta

Shasta
Day1 Greenie
Day2 Morsul
Day3 Greenie
Day4 Nog

Brinn
Day1 Fea
Day2 Sally
Day3 Glirdy
Day4 Nog

Nerwen
Day1 no vote
Day2 Sally
Day3 Glirdan
Day4 Nog

Mira
Day1 no vote
Day2 Winty
Day3 no vote
Day4 no vote

edit: xed with all

wilwarin538

04-16-2010, 06:17 AM

By the way wilwa... If I counted correctly, Mira has failed to vote twice in a row.

Thanks for pointing it out, I hadn't noticed. I think she's going through some RL stuff with work and whatnot, so I'll give her today. If she doesn't vote today then she'll be modfired.

Morsul the Dark

04-16-2010, 06:19 AM

Since I was talking about votes, I got interested... Here's a little something for y'all:
Brinn
Day1 Fea
Day2 Sally
Day3 Glirdy
Day4 Nog

And I thought I was doing well Brinn might be the last wolf... 4 for 4... Not really enough of course but warrants a look.

Thinlómien

04-16-2010, 06:25 AM

If Mira's a wolf, would there have been a kill last Night? And if she wins as a wolf, is it very fair? My answers are possibly not and not unless she starts to post more.

Brinn has creepily good voting record! Although voting Fea doesn't make it any more creepy since the wolves don't know the cobbler. And if you remove the Fea vote, you could call Nerwen and my voting records just as creepy...

I'm not sure I buy Agan's point about Nog telling his fellow to make himself look by suspecting him, but if we assume it's true, then Shasta and Agan herself look worse (the first wolf-on-wolf vote from both of them was against Nog) and Morsul (did w-o-w before but not against Nog).

PS. Does bringing this up make Agan look more innocent? No, because if that occured to her, she'd definitely say it even as a wolf. I know well enough that she posts all good points she has even if they work slightly against the wolves because it tends to make her look more innocent.

More thoughts on stuff later, now I have to go...

edit: xed with Moddess and Morsul

Legate of Amon Lanc

04-16-2010, 06:42 AM

Okay, I am around, however not sure how much time I will have. Not right now, at least, maybe later in the evening (that is, some six hours from now, or a bit later).

For now, in any case, at least here goes my favoured suspect Inzil, and I need to look at other people, even though I sort of wanted to give it a shot. Morsul has raised some controversy, as I see, though he seemed innocent to me before - or at least a "normal Morsul". This self-vote is slightly more puzzling, but then again, if I think about it more deeply, I could imagine an annoyed Morsul doing that. Nonetheless, it can be a last desperate attempt to save himself (or rather half-desperate half-resigned move, as it does not have a perspective, I believe, even if it was so and if it was succesful in making the village go "a Wolf wouldn't say that, let's leave him alone", eventually in a Day or two we'd return to him, I'm sure, but still I can imagine Morsul doing it). But since I cannot tell according to his behavior whether he is just innocent Morsul or maybe a more clever version of Morsul pretending to be innocent, I might as well look at his interactions with sally/Glirdan/Nogrod when I have time (which means not now). That's something that probably should be the key to us in general, as far as we can gather from their attitudes towards other people. We should bear in mind that the WWs, especially later (Nog?) when they saw they are rather doomed, might have possibly tried to disconnect themselves from their remaining packmate, however, there are still certainly things where they'd be more careful and e.g. avoid talking too much with their mates or something. Also the earlier we go (when they felt safe), I think the more we could find, although of course then again, back then they could not have had problems with interacting with their packmates in certain ways because there were just still many people and the WWs didn't think they'll be spotted.

Anyway - that's something that I am going to possibly try to do, but later, for now I will hang around for a while, but probably not have much time to read anything in detail, and then I will be off for several hours.

As for the death of Nienna, as far as I can see it seems most probable to me that she was killed as a person who was generally thought innocent. No other obvious motives (and seems nobody else noticed anything like that either).

Agan, if you still want that thing you quoted explained (or did you already understand it? I wasn't able to gather that from your posts), may you quote where exactly it was from and then I could tell you?

And last of all, I've been called wishy-washy on Wolves, come on, I have voted them in the end (or more or less), and I think a Wolf wouldn't make such a show out of being undecided. That is, speaking of that, also something I want to consider when looking for the WW connections - I think the WWs will be generally rather decided (if they e.g. decided to nail their comrade from the beginning), or with some "back door" open there, but not so openly (i.e. not like talking to oneself aloud for ten posts whether to vote this person or not, but sort of quietly remarking "...but what it" or leaving the door open, Nogrod actually has partially done something like that). I think for example reviewing Nogrod's behavior towards those who seemed to be getting obviously lynched (esp. Glirdan, since with Sally it was Wolf or Wolf) might give some clue to the identity of the last Wolf, i.e. maybe if there was somebody with the same/diametrally opposite behavior who at the same time was sort of careful and not interacting with Nogrod too much etc. - such a person would be a likely suspect for me. But, like I said, I don't have time to check it now.

EDIT: x-ed since Agan, and certainly thanks to Lommy for the list! So maybe I can actually look at something now at least generally...

Morsul the Dark

04-16-2010, 06:54 AM

Brinn: ++Fea

It's not unusual for her to vote out of thin air and disappear, and it doesn't say anything about her role. But for once, I'd like her to actually explain her vote. Voting that early without an explanation is a dangerous thing, and it can start bandwagons as we are already seeing. While it's certainly possible it's just an innocent Fea having fun, I could also very well see an evil Fea pulling it off thinking she can get away with such a vote with little scrutiny...she has before. And not only has she not explained her vote, but she has not made any sort of contribution. Only two posts, a vote and banter. Perhaps she is busy, but so am I. If you're going to make a vote, then explain it. Whether the reasoning is good or poor, there should always be at least some explanation. It doesn't take long to write a sentence or two.

This vote seems pretty good.

Brinn: For reasons stated in my post above:

++Sally

Bah, I feel like I should be bringing forth a competing candidate, but there actually really is no one else I suspect all that much. I've spent longer than I should on WW, and after all that then I haven't even begun to thoroughly examine any players thoroughly.

This makes me feel strange as if she hates voting her packmate... The day before she didn't want to bandwagon an innocent not too worried about doing it with a wolf... interesting.

Looking at the voting list, Mira's vote looks quite bad not only because of the nature of the vote that I mentioned yesterDay I didn't like, but the timing too (Sally was really racking up in votes by then). Actually, Shasta looks just as bad for the timing of his vote, but I can't remember his reasons behind the vote, so I should perhaps check that out later. In any case, they both warrant a reason for me to better look at them come toMorrow.

But I must be going now, so here's my vote:

++Glirdan

I hate making early votes and I still wish I could've actually heard what he may have to say before making this vote, but I won't be back toDay most likely.

His role could go either way, and knowing what it is would clear up some things. Even if he did turn out innocent, his death wouldn't exactly be a devastating blow to the village considering we are ahead in the game lynching a wolf and cobbler in two Days...and not to mention that his death could provide useful clues, whatever his role may be. If we don't lynch him toDay, we'll just be wondering the same things about him come toMorrow. So at this point, unless a more suspicious candidate comes forth, he seems the best choice for toDay.

This seems good... I feel I'm trying to see something not there... So Brinn is still in my eyes innocent looking one more vote to check out though.

Okay, I'm supposed to be doing schoolwork now, so in order to prevent distracting myself, I'm voting now. There's really no need for me to hold off anyway since I've already made my decision:

++Nogrod

So far we're on a streak lynching a cobbler and two wolves in three Days. No innocent has yet to be lynched. I'm hoping to keep it that way. Honestly, it would really surprise me if Nogrod does turn out innocent...there's just so many reasons that point to his guilt.

I think Brinn's votes are clean... She reasons them well with her other posts never does she make it seem wolf on wolf or anything... The Sally vote is the only one even slightly strange... but I think Brinn's good.

Legate of Amon Lanc

04-16-2010, 06:57 AM

Okay, so if I were to think based on the voting list:

Winty would give some Wolf-on-Wolf votes, but as far as I remember, it was more or less at the phase when lot of it was decided (although at one point I recall him voting either right before or after me, I think it was even before, so that would sort of indicate for his innocence at that time, as it was by the time that the person did not have too many votes yet and WW was basically giving a sort of decisive, or a "now it's real and strong bandwaggon"-type vote).

Lommy is innocent basically 100% for me. There's no way she would have acted like that as a Wolf.

Morsul: hard to say, but given the fact that he's been voting early... wouldn't it be a bit counterproductive esp. when it comes to voting Sally and Glirdan? I don't think (with all due respect ;) ) that Morsul is so bold to vote two of his packmates out, especially given that Nogrod was certainly not as bold. By the way, that makes me think strongly that even his other packmate was not so bold, so I'll be looking for the last Wolf probably mainly among the people who weren't very bold or downright voted somewhere "throwaway".

That would partially apply to Aganzir. Now I wonder if I should be worried.

Skip would be another option. A very good newbie Wolf, with very little suspicion and all, slipping nicely unnoticed through the crowd... Of course the question would be if he is a Wolf or a very individualistic innocent who is very reasonable and refuses to join the general bandwaggons. I think I am going to recheck him, and what he said about Nog, and vice versa, etc...

Shasta... could be something similar, also quite a lot of these "throwaway" votes.

Brinn, if she's a Wolf, would have a really Wolf-on-Wolf, or at least from Day 2 (3? Have to check if she voted Sally when there was mainly her or Glirdan already, or when there was still yet a chance to start a bandwaggon for somebody else - or on the other hand, if she didn't vote Sally when it YET didn't look like she would be necessarily voted by many at all).

Nerwen... well, that'd be basically the same as above.

Mira: ahem... okay. If she's the Wolf, I hope she is going to be modfired. As that'd certainly not be fair for all of us to lynch each other and then find out that it was her all the time.

EDIT: x-ed with Morsul

Aganzir

04-16-2010, 07:41 AM

Trying to boss me around, eh?
No I'm just trying to come up with a way to make myself feel better in case you turn out to be a wolf. ;)

If Mira's a wolf, would there have been a kill last Night? And if she wins as a wolf, is it very fair?
Possibly not. And no, but whatever her role, it isn't exactly fair to anyone that she doesn't post (yes Mira I know you have some RL stuff but that doesn't serve as an excuse throughout the whole game); not to the innocents if she's a wolf, and not to the wolf if she's eg. a gifted. And that's why modfire exists.

the first wolf-on-wolf vote from both of them was against Nog
The first wolf vote, you mean? ;) In any case we don't know Mira's & Morsul's roles.

Agan, if you still want that thing you quoted explained (or did you already understand it? I wasn't able to gather that from your posts), may you quote where exactly it was from and then I could tell you?
If you thought my theory about Nog slipping his furry thoughts about the urgency of finding the cursed might be true after all, then I don't need it explained. If you thought the said theory might not be true, then I do.

Okay now I'm going to analyse Nerwen.

Nerwen

04-16-2010, 09:14 AM

So, I have already talked about the way I didn't like Skip on Day 3, specifically his sheer persistence in defending Glirdan– and that was before we knew Glirdan was a wolf.

Here he is on the other two Days a wolf got lynched:

Skip, Day 2

#235. Asks why Lottie is now a known innocent.

#257 (http://www.forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=626980&postcount=257)
Finds Agan suspicious for making such a big deal about dumping retractables.

#268
The wolves know the identity of the cobbler, right?

#270
Originally Posted by Nienna
Edit: x-ed with Skip -- and to answer his question the wolves don't ever know the role of the cobbler.
But does the cobbler know the identity of the wolves? I'm having problem figuring out the role Fea would try to play.

Comments: Those two posts could equally be either honest questions, or a wolf playing the newbie card– no way of telling.

#274 (http://www.forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=627000&postcount=274)
Find Glirdan and Nienna suspect for their Day One votes having apparently worked out for himself that throwaways aren't a good thing:
Ok so from the wolves' perspective it did not matter if Fea or Lottie was lynched? They wouldn't care either way, it's all good.

So any wolf yet to vote would probably keep a low profile when it looked like either one of those two would die, you know act wishy-washy, and then come up with some half-decent explanation to vote for any random person.

#400. "I'm here" post.

#423.
So what's the current vote tally? Sally's dying, isn't she?

(is having trouble making any sense of the proceedings)

To which Sally responded:
#425.
So far, yes, but you can still prevent it. :)

#429. Casts third vote on Glirdan.
Gotta go to bed. Haven't got the focus now to get a real grip of what's been happening, but I understand Sally's got her back against the wall. I've had no real suspicion against her but I can see how some would find her behaviour creepy. Would be interesting to find out her role - she might well be a wolf but she would not be my first choice to vote for. Glirdan I've had a slight suspicion on since day one and although I've no clear picture of exactly what he's been up to tonight, at least he's not reassured me. So, in order to open up another alternative:

++Glirdan

General comments: The first part of the day, apart from his well-reasoned post at #274, Skip mostly just talks about the rules, while with both potential lynchees being wolves, it's hard to deduce all that much from the fact that he voted Glirdan over Sally. However, if in fact Skip is a wolf he'd have had to choose one or the other (or make a throwaway, which he'd earlier denounced) and he might have decided Sally was more valuable to the team. At that point, there were still several people left to vote, Izzy (#426) had said she would probably vote Glirdan, and Sally herself had more-or-less directly asked Skip to save her. Of course this last might just as easily be Sallywolf's attempt to implicate an innocent Skip.

Skip, Day 4.

#584
Just checking in briefly without having read anything in detail but Morsul, this is a very incriminating statement. A slip of the tongue perhaps, but one that could cost you your head.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Morsul the Dark
Lastly I voted first for both wolves... If I knew they would get the most votes for the day I'd be A) psychic and B) insane for offering them up for slaughter.

Comments: ??? Seems to rest on an over-literal interpretation.

#621

Lommy has a good point about the wolves not killing Greenie unless she had given them a reason to worry when they could've gone after Lottie instead, I think.
Yes, killing Greenie was a surprising decision (and I'll miss having her around). But what possible reason could the wolves have to believe she was the seer? From what I've gathered she was always perfectly ambiguous and vague about everyone, and tried her best to stay out of trouble. I was starting to suspect her as a wolf for these reasons. Could the wolves have felt that this was a reason to suspect her being the Seer, with the knowledge that she wasn't a wolf?

And why not Lottie? Two reasons I can think of. Maybe they think the ranger will protect her every other night and that the risk of missing out on a kill is too great. Or that the people Lottie now suspects are innocent, and that she's likely to cause as much bloodshed among the villagers as she already has among the wolves. I'm not so sure who's on top of Lottie's suspect list any longer though.

Morsul's odd though, wouldn't you say? Can't give this too much time but I will look into some of his statements now. There seems to be a pattern to his seemingly erratic behaviour, one that tempts me to cry... what is the word again ... oh yes wolf.

Comments: At this point Nogwolf, and the likelihood that Greenie had been killed for her suspicion of him, had been much talked about... yet Skip seems weirdly oblivious to this. If it wasn't for his quoting somebody-or-other, I'd think he hadn't read the thread.

#628 (http://www.forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=627549&postcount=628)
Post about Morsul. Raises some good points against him, but also continues that same strange accusation from #584. Think Shasta and Morsul might be the remaining wolves.

#635. Casts second vote on Shasta.
Nogrod is starting to worry me too but I've not really kept up to date with the reading and just why he's suspected. Because Greenie the Seer's vote for him, is it not? It would be remarkable if we (though I can't claim any credit) could lynch a wolf three consecutive nights. Don't know if Nogrod is one but things are beginning to bad for him methinks. How do you behead a big grin anyway? Let's ask the The Queen Of Hearts shall we?

But I will not be the one to try to fit the noose around his neck or lack of. The most honest option for me is Shasta, who I've sort of suspected since early on. I could go for Morsul too but don't see that happening now.

++Shasta

*is off to sleep*

Comments: And Nogrod had only two votes at this point...

General Comments: Looks like he might have been trying to save Nogrod that Day, doesn't it?

Conclusions: Might be furry. Might also just be a very individualist new player who prefers to form his own judgements. However, it's enough that I'd consider voting him, anyway.

Nerwen

04-16-2010, 09:29 AM

By the way, that makes me think strongly that even his other packmate was not so bold, so I'll be looking for the last Wolf probably mainly among the people who weren't very bold or downright voted somewhere "throwaway".

That's quite a jump, Legate. It depends on who this last wolf is.

That would partially apply to Aganzir. Now I wonder if I should be worried.
And then there was that fellow... now what was his name? Something to do with diplomacy... Ambassador? Envoy? Emissary? Something like that.:p

By the way, I hadn't read this bit when I called Skip "individualist":
Skip would be another option. A very good newbie Wolf, with very little suspicion and all, slipping nicely unnoticed through the crowd... Of course the question would be if he is a Wolf or a very individualistic innocent who is very reasonable and refuses to join the general bandwaggons.

Just saying that, because there's been a bit of a thing this game about people using the same wording.

Morsul the Dark

04-16-2010, 09:39 AM

seems to me Shasta and Skip are the two most suspicious at this point...

Nerwen

04-16-2010, 09:42 AM

Well, at the moment, I think it's a choice of Brinn, Morsul or Skip, though I don't think any of them look terribly bad. But I don't have time to look at anyone else now. Brinn seems the least likely, Morsul I can't make head nor tail of, which leaves

++skip spence.

Seemingly, he did try to help at least two of the known wolves out, and maybe all three. That might mean something.

I'll try to get back later.

EDIT:X'd with Morsul.

Mirandir

04-16-2010, 09:56 AM

I'm here, and apologize for my epic lack of posting these past few days. RL just hit the fan. Hopefully since I'll be with Nienna in a couple hours I'll actually be able to post and be around toDay.

In the meantime, I've been trying to figure out what Morsul is trying to accomplish by voting for himself. Yes, it makes sense if he is innocent to want to get rid of suspicion on him to focus on a wolf. However, if he is indeed innocent he's only hurting the village by encouraging us to kill him and give the wolves a leg up. If the cobbler wasn't already dead, he'd be my main suspect.

If he is a wolf, though, voting for himself to make it look like he has nothing to lose is something of an intelligent strategy. However, it casts a lot of suspicion on his actions in general.

So this pretty much boils down to I have no idea what to think. I'm leaning toward innocent and pigheaded, but tempted to vote him for sheer stupidity at the risk of being hypocritical.

Morsul the Dark

04-16-2010, 09:57 AM

or there's a third plan I haven't unveiled;)

Aganzir

04-16-2010, 10:26 AM

I underline questions that I'd like answered because that way they're easier to notice and more difficult to forget about.

**

DAY 1

Nerwen started day 1 with some banter with sally and suggested the motive behind Fea's vote should be discussed. Then she sort of nudged suspicion toward winty which I still find suspicious:
*sigh* Now I suppose we have to decide whether this is innocent or guilty-looking. Would a wolfywolfy's* packmates have shown him the ropes on Night One, and told him not to do this? Or would they have left him in the dark in the hope that he'd look like a confused innocent? Or is he, in fact, innocent? You know, the usual.
It's just way too easy, even for a day 1 suspicion. It was a newbie's first post and Nerwen is suggesting it might be wolfish. She isn't really accusing him herself, rather just saying that we have to decide. So if winty was lynched and innocent she could have backed out beautifully.
When I questioned her about it (saying that older wolves usually tell cubs to be just as confused as they would without a pack guiding them), she sort of downplayed it by saying that wolf tactics tend to run in cycles. What does that comment actually mean and could you give some examples? Because I think some things that have been tested and found useful remain the same from game to game, one of them being that newbie wolves are encouraged to act like newbies. She also countered my accusation of her just looking for an easy lynch with:
And actually, that looks a lot more like an Aganwolf looking for an easy lynch. I remark on one of the few noteworthy things that had happened– and you call it suspicious? Why?

**

DAY 2

As a response to Brinn, she said she wouldn't ignore the Lottie-voters (Lommy, Green & Legate) either because the circumstances of the bandwagon were odd (why were they odd?), but she also acknowledged she doesn't want to fall into the "one of them has to be a wolf" trap. We know Green was innocent and at least I'm feeling very good about Lommy and alright about Legate, but in any case, if Nerwen's a wolf, none of the Lottie-voters can be. So while saying that doesn't necessarily imply Nerwen is a wolf, it would be a very convenient thing for Nerwolf to drive forward.

In 254 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=626977&postcount=254) Nerwen gathered quotes "expressing surprise or confusion where I just don't think it's warranted." She had one by sally (the rest were by Nienna, Lommy & me, all of whom (most likely) innocent):
what the heck happened at the end of the Day yesterDay? Don't get me wrong, yay dead cobbler, but a dead cobbler is not a dead wolf. Sally demands an....an expla.....explanat....some country.....
which she commented by asking what sally meant by "what the heck" and suggested there was a possible hint of wolfish chagrin there.
She added she didn't know how people could be surprised about Fea (who, I think, was acting in a rather Fea-like manner) being the cobbler, and that she was surprised anyone didn't see a connection between Boro & Lottie and figure out they were the Sheriffs.

She said she didn't know what to make of Zil's vote (for Mira, based on my suspicion of her), but thought his jumpiness was okay and Nog was taking a single remark totally out of context. She added Nog didn't look very good because of it but mitigated it, saying it was probably just a language problem.

Then she voted for sally whom she found the most suspicious at that point. She quoted a conversation between Shasta and sally about Morsul on day 1 and said sally looked like a wolf preparing to jump on an easy victim - or a packmate - and hastily going into damage control mode when her plan didn't work out. She ended her post with a back door:
I do mean to be back before DL, and will retract if Sally makes a sufficiently convincing case for her innocence, or if someone else starts looking worse.

**

DAY 3

Glirdan was suspected from the start of day 3, not the least because of sally's sudden turn on him. Nerwen marked sally's sudden change of tone in her last posts (when she urged Nienna to switch to Glirdan) and said
I don't think she'd been planning to do that all along– but she might have thought, "hey, since I'm going down, why not stage a 'desperate' last-second attack that will make my packmate look good?"
which, I think, looks a tad like Nerwen knew too much.
She also added:
There's a question of whether Sally honestly believed she had a chance of changing the outcome at that point (right on DL).
What does this comment have to do with anything?

Morsul suggested sally was planning to do a false seer-reveal, and Nerwen commented:
Might well be. But again, if her cry of "Glirdan's a wolf!" was meant to be the start of her "reveal", I have to wonder why she left it so late.
Which, in my opinion, is another post where it looks like Nerwen knew too much. Like, most others speculated on whether Glirdan and sally could've been fellows, but Nerwen just somehow, I don't know, seems to take it for granted.

Later she added that we shouldn't concentrate only on Glirdan (this comment could go either way), and after that made a post about sally & Glirdan's interaction. She reached the conclusion that Glirdan was possibly a wolf, but added some points that were against the theory of him and sally being wolves together (#1: Glirdan, who started suspecting sally more the more votes she got, might not have kept track of voting; #2: they two were the most likely lynch-candidates which could've given them a reason to suspect/want to kill the other; #3: Glirdan tends to go with the flow and might have been influenced by many people suspecting sally). This could go either way too, I suppose. While the Nerwolf I remember is happy to throw her fellows under the bus, I recall she's often done it a bit hesitantly; not voted for them unless it was really necessary - and I suppose it wasn't certain Glirdan would be lynched. But innocent Nerwen might have said that as well.

Nerwen sort of accused skip of "trying one approach after another to defend Glirdy," and it's somewhat suspicious because it happened before Glirdan's role was revealed and before that, Nerwen herself had expressed some doubt about Glirdan being evil. In her next post she agreed with Nog about always finding Glirdan's playing style suspicious regardless of his role and said that was why she had been hesitating about him, but voted for Glirdan at the end of the post. It was the last vote (six minutes before deadline) and by then Glirdan already had seven votes (or six as Nerwen crossed with Nienna's vote).

**

DAY 4

Now, Greenie's death does not look like a no-trace kill, as she'd attracted quite a bit of suspicion. So I think it's likely the wolves guessed her identity, and/or had a specific motive for killing her (framing someone, taking the heat off a wolf, double-bluffing, etc...)
I think that comment is awfully fishy. Framing whom? If the wolves guessed her identity, it was most likely because Nog was her top suspect. It looks like you were suggesting the wolves wanted to frame innocent Nog.
Heck I can't put my finger on the comment any better, I just think there's something very wrong there.

She moves on to say that we have no guarantee Greenie dreamt a wolf but because she suspected Nog, who had also started to creep Nerwen herself out the day before, Nerwen found him worth looking at (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=627458&postcount=578) (that's day 1 only though). People had already started to suspect Nog before that. She concluded that only one of Nog's posts looked furry but because of his overall day 1 tone, she wouldn't be surprised if he was indeed a wolf. That would be quite a convenient way to treat a fellow wolf who was possibly under the risk of lynching.
Then she goes through his day 2 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=627477&postcount=586). Her conclusion, again, doesn't say anything:
This could be Nogwolf testing the wind, then resigning himself to losing a comrade and taking a while to decide which one to vote for– or innocent Nogrod without time and/or energy to contribute much. (Note though, that he's posted quite a lot, it's just that most of it lacks substance.) Did play a real, if small, part in getting Sally lynched, but some of his other posts seem off.

It was only Nog's first post on day 4 (in which he already behaved like a cornered wolf) that Nerwen said she seriously considered voting for Nog. In her analysis of Nog's day 3, she said he didn't look half as bad as Glirdan when she analysed him but that he was leaning furry. I'm not sure if Nog was really acting so much more suspiciously on day 3 than he had on the earlier two, or if Nerwolf, after his posting on day 4, decided it was better for her to start suspecting him. How ever it was, there's a change of tone in Nerwen's last analysis post.

She voted for Nog "Because I think we have to know his role," but added:
I'll skim the thread now, and if anyone else really jumps out I may switch.
which is the same she did with sally. Granted, she didn't vote on day 1 and on day 3, when Glirdan was lynched, her vote was the last, but when I talked about Nerwolf who's hesitant when voting her fellows, it was comments like that that I meant.

Brinniel (http://www.forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=627520&postcount=606) quotes one thing I said about Glirdan completely out of context, and then uses that to show I was against lynching him– ignoring everything else I said that Day.
Could you explain how it's out of context? Yeah it's not all you said about lynching Glirdy, but I think it sums it up well enough. And I agree with Brinn that you weren't exactly the most enthusiastic Glirdan-voter...

**

DAY 5

Nerwen suggests Nienna was killed just to eliminate a threat as she didn't go strongly after any living player, and adds that Morsul (who, she later agreed with Lottie, is most likely not furry but isn't doing himself any favours either; and after that said that he's more suspicious again because he's "grasping for the excuse Lottie's supplied" him when he said he would've voted himself every day if he had been a wolf with sally) needs looking at and so does Brinn, and Legate (whom she hasn't paid much attention). Brinn looked mostly innocent to her on days 1 & 2 but Nerwen found her day 3 attitude towards lynching Glirdan suspicious, as well as the way Brinn "took her comment out of context." And on day 4 she doesn't think Brinn is behaving like a wolf as a baddie would probably monitor herself better than Brinn has (ie pay more attention to how her comments come across). Her conclusion:
I've seen her as looking very good throughout most of the game, but after this I'm more on the fence about her. I mean, I certainly wouldn't say she's sprouting fur before my eyes, or anything, but there are some points against her– more than I expected to find when I started.
which could go either way, again. If Nerwen's a wolf, she isn't pushing Brinn too hard (and therefore might avoid being suspected by her in return) but if she ever needs a lynching candidate, she can pick Brinn easily after that. The way she's behaved today, it looks almost like she's storing up potential lynchees for future use...

Then she analyses skip and finds him mostly suspicious, saying he might have been trying to save Nog (something I don't think a fellow would've done), and that he might be furry or just a very individualist new player, but it's enough for Nerwen to vote for him. Didn't it play a part that Greenie called him the most innocent-looking?

**

Huh if I was as motivated to write essays as WW analyses, I'd have a lot more credits... *thinks of a paper that should've been this long but which she never finished*

Anyway I don't think Nerwen looks good, and at least I would take the chances and lynch her. I should probably have a look at Nog's interaction with her (or Nog's interaction with everybody, for that matter), but having sat and written this for a couple of hours, I don't really feel like it.

I'm taking a break now, will be back later.

Brinniel

04-16-2010, 10:41 AM

General comments: Well, this is interesting. She talks about Glirdan in every post. Agrees it's "quite possible" he might be a wolf but makes no points of her own against him, other than that he might always have thrown Sally under the bus when it became clear she was doomed, and later that knowing his role would be useful. Raises the following points in his favour: Sally might have been double-bluffing to frame him; he started late and was still reading while posting, therefore probably unaware Sally was in trouble; he attacked her "eagerly" from the start (no he didn't); he suspected her before he himself was a serious candidate; if he were innocent it would be "a great opportunity for the wolves to jump in and push for his lynching"; finally, he hadn't had a chance to defend himself.

Yes, she voted Glirdan– but it was only the second vote and she talks about him as a sort of not-all-that suspicious default candidate, while raising points against other players.
I admit I never strongly suspected Glirdan. The only thing I really had against him was Sally's accusations at the end of the Day which did look rather wolf-on-wolf. Along with hearing his defense, I would've loved to look at Glirdan more in depth, but Day 3 was my worst Day participation-wise. I didn't have any solid suspects at the time of voting, nor did I have time to look for any...I chose to vote Glirdan because I knew if he survived the Day, he would continue to bug me the following Days. Knowing his role would help enlighten us on other players, so I figured it was worth lynching him...even if he was innocent, his death would be more useful than the possible death of another innocent.

While Brinn has been consistent with her suspicion on Nogwolf, she now seems to have flipped on quite a number of other players.
Just to make it clear, when making my analysis posts, I am writing down my suspicions based solely on what I'm analysing. While someone may look incredibly guilty in voting for example, they could've done something else that makes them look extremely innocent. Which is why you might've interpreted it as flipping. My post with the list of players are my overall thoughts for the Day.

I'm sorry if you think I misrepresented you. Again, I am limited on time and am doing these analyses while at work (though my job requires little attention, I do have to stop periodically while in the middle of writing something), so I could of easily missed something, but that's how I read it. I realise I probably should've put you in the wishy-washy section (I was debating it at the time since you seemed to be somewhere in between the two)...when I say wishy-washy, I mean players who see both sides of the issue, but are vague or hesitant when it comes to stating their own opinion on the matter.

Onto other things...

When it comes to yesterDay's voting, I feel pretty certain that neither of the Shasta voters are wolves. It was fairly obvious from early on that Nogrod would most likely be lynched, so it would've been easier for the wolf to blend in with the large bandwagon than stick out. Someone mentioned that Nogrod would've been aware that he was in danger of getting lynched and instructed his mate to suspect him. Having been wolves with Nog several times, this sounds to me exactly like something he would do.

With Lottie not dead yet, I think it's most probable that the final wolf is seeking out the cursed. It makes sense...the odds are certainly not in his/her favour, and by turning a cursed, the chances for a wolf win would double. Someone (I think Lommy) suggested looking at Nienna's posts since it's less likely those who were suspected by her would kill her in fear of being hunted. I agree; now without any packmates left, the lone wolf should've been perfectly aware of the hunter and would try to avoid at all costs getting hunted since that would mean game over for the wolves.

Btw, good to see you posting, Mira. I actually texted Nienna telling her to remind you to vote toDay when she sees you, in case you weren't aware of the possible modfire. :)

skip spence

04-16-2010, 10:58 AM

Is here, sort of, but also cooking, cleaning and doing laundry. Hope to be able to give this a bit more time later.

But briefly, voting for yourself like that Morsul is just... wrong.

And a vote on me. Have been half-expecting that for a while now and frankly I'm surprised it took so long. Will try to honour it by responding to some of Nerwen's points...

Brinniel

04-16-2010, 11:04 AM

Okay, going through Nienna's posts was no help whatsoever. I didn't realise how little she posted yesterDay...

There's a lot of other things to analyse...yesterDay for one, and also Nogrod. I'm not going to do tons of analysing, but I can do a little bit. But right now I'm slightly hurting and could use a break from thinking about WW.

Thinlómien

04-16-2010, 11:09 AM

My thoughts on the cases presented:

Nerwen vs Brinn
- what Nerwen posted actually made me more suspicious of Brinn, even though Nerwen herself reached the opposite conclusion
- however, looking at the vote tally makes it beggar belief that Brinn's a wolf (she's really not so evil that she could heartlessly vote her fellows Day after Day) and her latest post seems very innocent, so I'm leaning on considering her innocent

Nerwen vs Skip
- good points
- BUT I think Nerwen is trying to grasp at straws a bit - like Agan said, Greenie's comment on Skip should not be forgotten (even though we can't take it as proof for Skip's innocence)*. Not sure if that makes Nerwen guilty, desperate or careless.

Agan vs Nerwen
- again good points, very precise and concrete ones
- however, I again get the feeling of grasping at straws. Nerwen is very scary and I'd be tempted to vote her just to be safe, so I get the uncomfortable feeling Aganwolf is trying to abuse people's instinctive distrust of Nerwen. It's hard to explain, but the case is so good that it is suspicious. Not sure if that makes sense, but it doesn't have the innocent trademark of being unsure. But - since Legate missed my flip-flopping ;) - I have to give credit Agan with making a good case whether it was with evil intentions or not.

*speaking of which, what do you Skip think? Do you think it probable Greenie dreamt of you?

edit: xed with Brinn

Thinlómien

04-16-2010, 11:31 AM

Not worried about atm
Skip - likely seer dream, didn't vote Nog. (I know I said before I'm not sure what Agan said about possible Nog-instruction is likely, but I'm sort of leaning towards that, especially if the last wolf is a newbie like Skippy.)
Winty - can't just find myself suspecting him. Has bandwagoned on most wolves, but it might be just a newbie going with the flow - whatever his role. I should possibly pay more attention to him.
Morsul - leaning innocent with his self-vote (mostly the phrasing).
Legate - somehow how he explained his wishy-washyness made me feel better about him although I'm not sure if it was a good point. I wouldn't be surprised if he was the last wolf because I'm generally clueless about stuff, though. But still he's not the most urgent of my concerns at all.
Brinn - maybe too good track record to be guilty, especially combined with her last innocent-looking post. I have nagging suspicions against her but I'm starting to think that's just my instinctive suspicion of her and nothing worse this time.
Mira - not enough evidence to make me worried. Not judging her before I see more.

Worried about atm
Agan - would be such typical wolf-Agan to bring forwards points that make herself look worse in order to make herself look more innocent. To be honest the only wolf-vote being Nog on Day4 doesn't look good on her, nor does the pursuit of lynchable Inzil on the Days when Sally or Glirdy was in danger.
Nerwen - Agan brings some good points about her, and it is true she a) tends to throw fellows under the bus but might do it a little hesitantly and b) looks like she knows more than the rest of us.
Shasta - possibly the worst-seeming track record this far and I don't like him sort of slying under my radar all the time. (Lol just noticed the typo won't correct. :D)

skip spence

04-16-2010, 12:14 PM

*speaking of which, what do you Skip think? Do you think it probable Greenie dreamt of you?

I dunno, I'd like to think so. From an in-game perspective it's difficult to say. Won't go through Greenie's posts now looking for clues but the way I recall things she called me probably innocent or something to that effect. So did lots of other people. And I was hardly the only one Greenie called innocent... From a RL-perspective I think you or Agan are much better judges than me.

Aganzir

04-16-2010, 01:11 PM

But briefly, voting for yourself like that Morsul is just... wrong.
Sometimes people do it (do you know Nilpaurion Felagund? It was his trademark). And I must admit that I can understand Morsul's point: if he's innocent (which I think he is) and everybody just keeps suspecting him, it can get quite frustrating. Like, lynch me now and be done with it!

And a vote on me. Have been half-expecting that for a while now and frankly I'm surprised it took so long.
Why? Do you have a reason to expect people would vote for you? :p

the case is so good that it is suspicious. Not sure if that makes sense, but it doesn't have the innocent trademark of being unsure.
Hey that's not fair! :( :p
And what do you mean by unsure? I read her posts and wrote what impressions I got. Then I made my conclusion about her based on the said impressions. I'm not sure she's guilty, but I just fail to see why appearing unsure when making an analysis is a sign of innocence.

Agan - would be such typical wolf-Agan to bring forwards points that make herself look worse in order to make herself look more innocent. To be honest the only wolf-vote being Nog on Day4 doesn't look good on her, nor does the pursuit of lynchable Inzil on the Days when Sally or Glirdy was in danger.
What points are you talking about? When I said it's more likely Nog's fellow didn't try to save him, I didn't consider it something that would somehow incriminate me. You mean I shouldn't say anything that doesn't look entirely good on me because if I do it means I'm a wolf, even if it was helpful to us? And really I'm getting slightly bothered about the fact that you keep saying Nog was my & Shasta's first wolf-vote. Or do you know for sure that Mira and Morsul are innocent?
As for the "lynchable Inzil", you might notice it was partly my effort that made him lynchable - because he was my top suspect. Glirdy and sally pretty much slipped under my radar all the time - which you should know they wouldn't have done if I had been their fellow.
I don't like your points against me. They're not enough to make me think you're a wolf after all you've done, it's just that they're bad.

skip spence

04-16-2010, 01:12 PM

...even if he was innocent, his death would be more useful than the possible death of another innocent.

That's some pretty cold reasoning, Brinn. :D

If you are still around Nerwen (what time is it in Oz now?) I'd like to know what you mean by "over-literal"?

Just checking in briefly without having read anything in detail but Morsul, this is a very incriminating statement. A slip of the tongue perhaps, but one that could cost you your head.
Lastly I voted first for both wolves... If I knew they would get the most votes for the day I'd be A) psychic and B) insane for offering them up for slaughter.Comments: ??? Seems to rest on an over-literal interpretation
When I read this the first thing I thought of was: if he were an ordo and not a wolf, he'd not be insane for putting the wolves up for the slaughter, he'd be a hero and a trailblazer for picking out the enemies of the village. Isn't that merely a literal interpretation of a statement not intended to be anything but literal? Agree with Agan that it easily could be an honest mistake though.

Here's Morsul's response btw:
and if it does all I can say is we as a village had a good run figures We'd lynch an innocent eventually...

As for the rest, in the scenario that me and Nogrod were the remaining wolves, do you really think we would decide that I'd try to vote Shasta (on admittedly rather weak grounds) and by that trying to save Nog, although it was very unlikely this rescue attempt would succeed? After seemingly trying to defend Glirdan on the previous Day?

Comments: At this point Nogwolf, and the likelihood that Greenie had been killed for her suspicion of him, had been much talked about... yet Skip seems weirdly oblivious to this. If it wasn't for his quoting somebody-or-other, I'd think he hadn't read the thread.
Here you'd be right. Have had a rather busy week with a cold on top of that and I'm struggling to catch up just now.

In retrospect Nogrod did looked a likelier wolf than Shasta. Sally And Glirdan I'm still amazed we nailed so quickly and still don't really understand just how it happened. After a quick review I can see why Nogrod was lynched, though. At the time of voting however I was behind in the reading (still am, but slightly less so) and I'm just loath to jump on a bandwagon without good reason.

skip spence

04-16-2010, 01:19 PM

Why? Do you have a reason to expect people would vote for you? :p

:D
Well, the points that Nerwen brought up are fairly obvious, aren't they. Not voting on now proved wolves the last two days and seemingly standing up for at least one of them, namely Glirdan. With result in hand these points gave me a good night's IC sleep confident that the remaining wolf would not come after me.

Brinniel

04-16-2010, 01:21 PM

Greenie was the Seer?!

I must have spent an hour earlier today putting all my points against her into one big case, and see where it gets me.
I don't know, but his reaction does seem a bit fake to me.

Now, naturally we have no guarantee Greenie dreamt a wolf at all. However, since she stated suspicion of Nogrod yesterDay, and indeed voted him, and since Nogrod was starting to creep me out towards the end of yesterDay, I think he's worth looking at. Besides, he's been under my radar most of the game.

General Remarks: Well, while #128 is the only single post I'd call definitely furry-looking, from Nog's overall Day One posting I shouldn't be that *surprised* if he turns out a wolf. I won't put it stronger than that– later Days may give a different picture. Also, I haven't yet looked at what the known wolves said about him– as I recall, not much.

Meh... Can't really tell either way– he's given so little to go on. No wonder he's been under the radar! This could be Nogwolf testing the wind, then resigning himself to losing a comrade and taking a while to decide which one to vote for– or innocent Nogrod without time and/or energy to contribute much. (Note though, that he's posted quite a lot, it's just that most of it lacks substance.) Did play a real, if small, part in getting Sally lynched, but some of his other posts seem off.

General Comments: well, he doesn't come out of it looking nearly as bad as Glirdan did when I analysed him– but on the whole I'd say he's "leaning furry".
She starts off saying she doesn't think he looks furry, but wouldn't be surprised if he was. Treading middle ground so that she can go either way without looking like she flipflopped. I notice that as the Day continues and more players grow suspicious of Nogrod, her suspicion grows into "leaning furry." It looks pretty suspicious to me.

Insane for offering them up for the slaugher, eh? Yes, that may well be the case. A working theory of mine is that Shasta and Morsul are the remaining wolves. But if they are that seems like too bold a plan, especially if it's been made before hand. Hm...
Could this be an innocent newbie just trying to avoid the bandwagon, or a newbie wolf offering other options? I'm leaning towards the former because again, I really doubt a wolf wouldn't hide in the Nogrod bandwagon.

Anyway, my main dilemma toDay is simply whether to join lynching Nogrod - and therefore getting part of the answers to the above - or to believe in the other of the possibilities and lynch one of the other suspects, in my case Inzil. However as I am not sure how much the other makes sense right now and considering that I have been slightly unsure about Inzil's guilt for a few reasons (see earlier toDay), it might as well be Nogrod. Even though I am wondering if his defense is not that of a genuine innocent.
Leaves both options open and plays it safe. It could indicate wolf, but at least his words seem more genuine. Legate's a bit of a question mark to me at the moment.

skip spence

04-16-2010, 01:22 PM

Like, lynch me now and be done with it!'
Yeah but it's very childish, isn't it? And not at all helpful for the village if he is innocent, nor helpful for him if he is a wolf. It could easily be a desperate bluff.

Aganzir

04-16-2010, 01:23 PM

I don't know, but his reaction does seem a bit fake to me.
Not necessarily. I would have been surprised/slightly embarrassed too if my top suspect had been revealed as the seer.

Brinniel

04-16-2010, 01:24 PM

I still have more to say, but I'm off my work shift and need to leave now. I'll be back later.

Aganzir

04-16-2010, 01:26 PM

Yeah but it's very childish, isn't it? And not at all helpful for the village if he is innocent, nor helpful for him if he is a wolf. It could easily be a desperate bluff.
If you keep playing werewolf, some day you'll find out how it feels when everybody suspects you and uses everything you say against you even when you try to help. ;) It's sometimes nicer to die right away than to stay alive and constantly top everybody's suspicion list. Makes one feel like a burden to the village, and in a way it's true because if everybody concentrates on the suspicious innocent, the real wolf gets to pass by unnoticed.

Huh a couple of days ago I wouldn't have believed I'd be defending Morsul...

Thinlómien

04-16-2010, 01:33 PM

And really I'm getting slightly bothered about the fact that you keep saying Nog was my & Shasta's first wolf-vote. Or do you know for sure that Mira and Morsul are innocent?But if one of them is a wolf, you or Shasta can't be, so it doesn't matter. I don't quite get what's the problem here. Obviously we can only analyse possible wolf-on-wolf votes on known wolves, and given that there's only one wolf remaining, there can't be an unknown wolf on unknown wolf vote. So what's the fuss?

And what do you mean by unsure? I read her posts and wrote what impressions I got. Then I made my conclusion about her based on the said impressions. I'm not sure she's guilty, but I just fail to see why appearing unsure when making an analysis is a sign of innocence.People tend to flip-flop in their analyses even if they are more inclined to see somebody as either guilty or innocent. Your analysis was pretty condemning all along.

What points are you talking about? When I said it's more likely Nog's fellow didn't try to save him, I didn't consider it something that would somehow incriminate me. You mean I shouldn't say anything that doesn't look entirely good on me because if I do it means I'm a wolf, even if it was helpful to us? No! I didn't say that you presenting a point that puts you in bad light makes you evil, only that it doesn't speak for your innocence either. You would do that as an innocent as well as a wolf. If I ended up sounding it means you're evil it's simply because I remember wolf-Agans bringing up points harmful to the wolves in previous games. But if I use sense, you would of course come up with points like that as an innocent too. So I guess what I mean is that as the instances when you've brought up such points that I remember are from when you're a wolf the fact that you're doing it now reminds me of Wolf-Agan but if I think with reason it doesn't incriminate you (although it doesn't exonerate you either). Was that long enough explanation? :D

Glirdy and sally pretty much slipped under my radar all the time - which you should know they wouldn't have done if I had been their fellow.Which is not a good defense because as a wolf you could've pretended they did.

And no need to get so jumpy. *raises eyebrows*

PS. And I don't want to start an innocent-Agan vs innocent-Lommy argument (since we have avoided it this far, I'm actually surprised :p) nor a wolf-Agan vs innocent-Lommy argument started by the person first mentioned to get people think it's another innocent-on-innocent row and thus makes them both look innocent.

edit: xed with everything since Brinn's first
edit2: marked a quote

Aganzir

04-16-2010, 01:46 PM

But if one of them is a wolf, you or Shasta can't be, so it doesn't matter.
Hmm that's true. :p It just sounded bad to my ear.

People tend to flip-flop in their analyses even if they are more inclined to see somebody as either guilty or innocent. Your analysis was pretty condemning all along.
It wasn't intentional and I tried to see both sides. I was slightly suspicious of Nerwen when I started doing the analysis but I don't think I let it affect it (rather, the analysis just backed up my suspicions)... If it's condemning it's because she looked more guilty than innocent.

If I ended up sounding it means you're evil it's simply because I remember wolf-Agans bringing up points harmful to the wolves in previous games.
You did and it annoyed me.

Which is not a good defense because as a wolf you could've pretended they did.
I could but I wouldn't have done that because it would've looked bad on me. But because you can't know my role for certain there's no use to talk about that - suffice to say, you'll see when the game ends (or I die).

And no need to get so jumpy. *raises eyebrows*
I wasn't jumpy, I was annoyed in a way nobody else can make me. ;)

And I don't want to start an argument either, it just happened!

Anyway while Lommy was writing her charming little post I looked through the thread to see who had used their retractions, and I don't like the result very much... In addition to some dead people, only Lottie and me don't have ours left. Okay I suppose it could be worse too, if only a few refused to let go of theirs and there were more wolves left.

skip spence

04-16-2010, 01:59 PM

given that there's only one wolf remaining, there can't be an unknown wolf on unknown wolf vote. Sure it can. A wolf may vote himself. ;)

If you keep playing werewolf, some day you'll find out how it feels when everybody suspects you and uses everything you say against you even when you try to help. It's sometimes nicer to die right away than to stay alive and constantly top everybody's suspicion list. Makes one feel like a burden to the village, and in a way it's true because if everybody concentrates on the suspicious innocent, the real wolf gets to pass by unnoticed.
Yes, but why then play this game? Surely you can't expect people to trust you, unless they have a solid reason?

Edit: Agan: Lottie too still has hers left. I remember her retraction was late. Again, why is this a problem?

Aganzir

04-16-2010, 02:07 PM

Yes, but why then play this game? Surely you can't expect people to trust you, unless they have a solid reason?
True but sometimes it gets out of proportions, and it can be really annoying when nobody listens to you. So I wouldn't say that getting frustrated means that Morsul is a baddie or very unhelpful. It's better for the village not to focus on a single suspect, and if Morsul's innocent, he's trying to sacrifice himself for the greater good. :p

Edit: Agan: Lottie too still has hers left. I remember her retraction was late. Again, why is this a problem?
Oh yes that's true. And it's not a problem, it's just something that should be kept an eye on. Just in case. In a game where the lynch is determined by who gets the biggest number of votes last, a single retraction made right before the deadline can mean a lot.

Morsul the Dark

04-16-2010, 02:27 PM

Agan's... defending me:eek:

There are many reasons to vote oneself...

Frustration
For the greater good
to have a unanimous vote(Happened a few games ago:rolleyes:)
and others...

My vote is definitely not out of frustration.

skip spence

04-16-2010, 02:30 PM

So either we have Morsul the Martyr or Morsul the Desperate Lone Wolf? Voting on him does seems like a win-win scenario and at the moment I'm willing to oblige.

But I'm also concerned about the lack of other serious candidates.

And Agan, wouldn't you save yourself by retracting and re-voting if you had the chance and it was your only chance? Regardless of the role?

Edit: To clarify, an innocent saving himself from being lynched by re-voting may also get the real wolf lynched and thus be good for the village.

Aganzir

04-16-2010, 02:35 PM

Yeah Morsul wouldn't have thought so? :p

Voting on him does seems like a win-win scenario and at the moment I'm willing to oblige.
To me it doesn't because I believe we have a chance of getting a baddie (Nerwen)... And that reasoning would totally make me suspect you (skipwolf just wants an easy lynch!) if it wasn't for other things that make me think you more innocentish.

And Agan, wouldn't you save yourself by retracting and re-voting if you had the chance and it was your only chance? Regardless of the role?
Maybe but not necessarily. It would depend on the situation.

FYI, I'm trying to go through Nog's interactions with others in order to supplement Lommy's extensive wolf post analysis (mainly because I think it was a darn good way to do it :p). However I'd love to go to sleep in half an hour so it might be I don't have to complete it.

Shastanis Althreduin

04-16-2010, 02:52 PM

Here and reading, and can I just say I don't like how everyone is dismissing Morsul simply because of the way he acts? People change the ways they act all the time. :rolleyes:

Alright then.

Shastanis Althreduin

04-16-2010, 02:54 PM

Alright, I've seen a few things in Morsul's posts that are making me think something interesting.

++Morsul

I should be around (but distracted) for the next two hours or so, if something comes up.

Morsul the Dark

04-16-2010, 02:59 PM

Shasta I wonder what was interesting in my posts that you saw. But hey good vote.

Here's a thought... there are 7 ordos left YAY! but one is cursed they don't even know they're cursed I certainly hope we get us a wolf... But if not maybe the unicorn(we have a chance of getting our folks back) or cursed the las wolf truely is alone

Oh and one more thing Shasta has good reasoning and I think she's innocent.

Skip on the other hand would be happy to oblige my easy lynch. Jumping on a bit of bait?

--Morsul
++Skip

Aganzir

04-16-2010, 03:07 PM

++Nerwen

For reasons already explained.

I'll be around at least until I've done the Nog thingy... However I don't think I'll analyse it any further than that (sorry but I need my sleep, even if it's weekend) but at least it's there in case somebody else has more time and energy.

skip spence

04-16-2010, 03:14 PM

Alright.

++Morsul

Better him than me (apart from what I've already said)!

Going out now for a bit but might be back briefly in a couple of hours.

Legate of Amon Lanc

04-16-2010, 03:16 PM

Okay, back. I didn't read deeply the Nerwen-Agan-whatnot-whatever disputes, so I am going to reread them again properly to see what was going on there. Meanwhile, comment on other posts:

In the meantime, I've been trying to figure out what Morsul is trying to accomplish by voting for himself. Yes, it makes sense if he is innocent to want to get rid of suspicion on him to focus on a wolf. However, if he is indeed innocent he's only hurting the village by encouraging us to kill him and give the wolves a leg up. If the cobbler wasn't already dead, he'd be my main suspect.

If he is a wolf, though, voting for himself to make it look like he has nothing to lose is something of an intelligent strategy. However, it casts a lot of suspicion on his actions in general.

So this pretty much boils down to I have no idea what to think. I'm leaning toward innocent and pigheaded, but tempted to vote him for sheer stupidity at the risk of being hypocritical.
This, especially the first part, I sort of don't like and am not sure about it. On my first sight, that made me alert. Is it, like, a Wolf too easily jumping on the easy lynch without joining it yet (=i.e. going to vote later and blend with the crowd once people all start voting Morsul?)

Sometimes people do it (do you know Nilpaurion Felagund? It was his trademark). And I must admit that I can understand Morsul's point: if he's innocent (which I think he is) and everybody just keeps suspecting him, it can get quite frustrating. Like, lynch me now and be done with it!
Interesting 180° turn of being understanding to Morsul, to whom you never seemed to understand at all, right at the moment he voted himself. But whatever...

Generally speaking, if I went with sort of my line of thought how it was all the time and not admitting any possibility of suddenly turning my world upside-down because of being paranoid that Nerwen, Agan or somebody might be Wolves, then I would basically seek for the Wolf between Shasta or Mira the most.

There is one reason why I think Agan might be innocent, also because I believe Greenie would have dreamed of her. I mean, have Aganzir running unchecked, I think she would have looked into that. I think now it's really a pity that she did not get to reveal her dreams to us! Unless she really dreamed only of dead people. But that sounds quite unlikely - also exactly because of what I have just said about Agan.

So now I am going to reread, then reread somehow further into the past, and then hopefully even further, and if I am not asleep by then, I will do something about it.

EDIT: x-ed since Morsul

Aganzir

04-16-2010, 03:17 PM

I excluded dead people + Lottie because they didn't seem so important. I also left out Nog's day 4 posts, mainly because I personally think we can't make much of them plus I want to go to sleep. Sorry I'm not any more useful. :p
Also, I hope I didn't miss any posts... I just searched the thread for "nog."

Nog on others

DAY 1
-says Agan is more concerned about her image
-attacks Inzil for saying winty's vote receives scrutiny
-disagrees with Agan about getting rid of the retrackies
-gives winty a newbie pass on day 1
-says Mira could be a sneaky wolf but voting for her would be a shot in the dark
-some things about Agan bother him but not enough to lynch her
-can't read Shasta but his jump on Morsul looks bad
-Nerwen speaks sense and is dangerous "unless one has reason not to suspect her," hopes her argument with Agan wasn't wolf-on-wolf
-Legate speaks sense and is dangerous "unless one has reason not to suspect him"
-Morsul darn suspicious = normal Morsul, easy voting target
-skip has been making sense
-Brinn reasonable and scary

DAY 2
-says there are points against*[Glirdan and] Brinn to a lesser degree (& fair points against sally & Zil)
-Agan more innocentish than not
-skip feels good
-Mira doesn't feel honest and her winty vote is too easy, resemblesShasta's ramblings about Morsul/winty
-Morsul gets lynched a lot, not saying he isn't a wolf but he's a too easy suspect
-winty looks suspicious but is most likely just a newbie

DAY 3
-if Glirdan's a wolf Lommy looks innocent, skip harder to place
-d2 Agan added a new voting candidate (Zil), possibly trying to save sally & Glirdy
-d2 Shasta's vote isn't the best for helping a fellow but introduced a new candidate (Morsul)
-d2 Mira voted easy (winty), introduced a new candidate as well
-d2 Morsul possibly a wolf playing it risky
-d2 Nerwen looks good for adding a vote for a wolf
-d2 Legate & winty made good votes
-d2 Brinn's vote good too but she didn't mention Glirdan at all
-notes that skip defends Glirdan
-tries to buddy up with Agan who said she didn't get Green's suspicion of him
-if Glirdan's a wolf, Shasta & Mira look quite bad and Agan relatively bad
-doesn't know about Mira, tells we can lynch her if we want but he doesn't have an opinion

**

Others on Nog

DAY 1
-Agan has him in Nonsense category
-Lommy is disturbed by his manner of creeping and grinning but otherwise he's ok
-Legate agrees that Lottiewagon is strange
-Brinn agrees with him about the reason for keeping her retraction
-Shasta says Nog misinterprets mistakes again

DAY 2
-if Legate had to choose a wolf from each bandwagon, he'd say Brinn or Nog from the Fea wagon
-Legate agrees with Nog that if sally had wanted to save Lottie she wouldn't have voted for him
-Lommy doesn't like Nog's reaction to her & Green's Lottie votes, names Nog as one of her suspects
-Agan is not on Nog's wavelength but thinks he looks good & wolfish Nog wouldn't have brought up points against Fea
-Nerwen thinks Nog's row with Inzil doesn't look good but might be a language problem
-Brinn finds Nog reasonable
-Agan doesn't think Nog is guilty but isn't convinced about his innocence
-Legate says he's hard to work it (listed under in uffish thought he stood)

DAY 3
-Shasta criticises Nog's calling winty an easy lynch, suggests saying that is just an excuse to suspect anyone who suspects winty
-skip doesn't like Green's suspicion of Nog
-Nerwen agrees with Nog that Glirdan's playing style is always suspicious

DAY 4
-Shasta didn't like Nog's insistence that many people were voting for the easy lynches when Nog did it himself too
-Nerwen makes an analysis (d1) and says he doesn't look furry but she wouldn't be too surprised if he was
-Legate thinks the Greenie kill might have been intended to frame Nog although he could be a wolf too; Green didn't necessarily dream of Nog
-Lommy believes Green dreamt of Nog
-Nerwen says he could go either way (d2 posts)
-Nerwen seriously considers voting for him after post 587
-Brinn thinks the possibility of Nogwolf is realistic although it could've also been a framing attempt (unlikely though)
-Nerwen says he doesn't look as bad as Glirdan did but is leaning furry
-Lommy quite confident about Nog's guilt
-Agan not surprised if Nog's a wolf, prepared to vote for him
-Legate repeats the possibility of the wolves wanting to frame Nog
-Agan votes for Nog
-Lommy votes for Nog
-Legate rambles about Nog; "possibly suspicious but don't make sense"; wonders whether he should join the Nogwagon
-skip is starting to get worried about Nog but votes for Shasta
-Shasta will probably vote for Nog
-Legate suspects Nog
-Shasta votes Nog
-Legate votes Nog
-Brinn says Glirdan's d1 comment on Nog looks very wolf-on-wolf
-Brinn votes Nog, saying she's surprised if he's innocent
-winty votes for Nog
-Nerwen votes for Nog but "if anybody else really jumps out I may switch"