WW LXXV: It's Always Tea Time Here

[Mirandir]

This, especially the first part, I sort of don't like and am not sure about it. On my first sight, that made me alert. Is it, like, a Wolf too easily jumping on the easy lynch without joining it yet (=i.e. going to vote later and blend with the crowd once people all start voting Morsul?)[/B]

I did voice suspicion against him before that, though. Like, two days ago. I'm just actually doing something about it now.

++Morsul

For reasons previously stated and since he's the only one who's really jumped out at me. This might change if I get the chance to go over some things more closely, but wanted to make sure I didn't miss deadline again.

[Thinlómien]

If Morsul is the Unicorn and wants to come out, it would make more sense NOT to lynch him. We'd have another known innocent and the chances of getting Greenie back are already quite slim...

[Shastanis Althreduin]

If Morsul is the Unicorn and wants to come out, it would make more sense NOT to lynch him. We'd have another known innocent and the chances of getting Greenie back are already quite slim...

...and will just get slimmer as the game goes on. One could also argue that now is the best time to do it, as we aren't down to the point where lynches are crucial.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

I just thought of something - Lommy, we really never agree on anything, do we? :p

[Thinlómien]

Vote count

Morsul 3
Skip 2
Nerwen 1

right?

Don't like it, especially if Morsul indeed is the Unicorn (well lynching him would be better than lynching an ordo, but still not good).

++Nerwen

She's the only one of my suspects who we can get lynched toDay. I'm trusting Brinn to back me up on this - if she does and Winty doesn't appear and no one retracts, Nerwen should be dead meat and hopefully (although I'm not too optimistic) game over.

edit: xed with Shasta x2

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

If Green had dreamt of Ag, why would she have kept flip-flopping on her? It makes about as much sense as the fact that yesterDay you were claiming I believe G dreamt of A and saying my dream theories don't make any sense and now suggesting that G dreamt of A yourself... :rolleyes:
Well I said that before among the people she might have dreamt about in the beginning, the problem is that she basically didn't proclaim anybody or almost anybody as totally clean. Well I'd have to recheck - if she kept saying some things about suspecting her also on the last Day, it's another thing. Whatever. Now I have other tasks...

Anyway, sort of generally... if I think about voting...

Not voting Mira, because she could hang around for a while yet and then be modfired if she does not participate. If she does, we can at least read something from her and see. Not going to vote her now when she hasn't been around for a while.

Not voting Morsul, said above, generally now leaning to think him innocent.

Not voting Lommy. If there is anybody innocent around here, it's her.

Not voting Agan either. I believe she is innocent. (Okay, though actually now Lommy has disputed that dream thing, so I might recheck it. Still, otherwise, not really suspecting her... or sort of "would like not to suspect her". Because I am sort of restraining myself from starting to think her a Wolf, because if she is, I am going to hate her.)

Now we are getting into the harder part.

Not voting skip? Because if he is a Wolf he would deserve it and at least we could lynch him in every consequent game? I am not really sure.

Brinniel. Nerwen. Not really suspecting either of them. Brinniel maybe even less. Actually after her last posts I think her innocent. Nerwen, I think I am getting paranoid, maybe I need to re-read some of her older posts. Her summary as made by Agan does not make me suspect her, as many of the points she brings up there are explainable to me and I don't see anything suspicious in them. But then... now not sure if the rereading is going to accomplish much, to be honest. If she is a Wolf, the only way to incriminate her is to dream of her or to find her through her packmates.

WW is not much around... his voting list speaks partially against him being a Wolf.

Does that leave Shasta... I need to re-read him as well.

EDIT: x-ed since Mira and all... okay...

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Not voting skip? Because if he is a Wolf he would deserve it and at least we could lynch him in every consequent game? I am not really sure.

...Come again? :confused:

[Thinlómien]

Haha forgot that Legate exists. Sorry darling! :p Doesn't change the situation much, though. Only means that Brinn if Nerwen is your main suspect it means you had better only vote after Legate has gone to sleep. ;) (Don't really want to see Skippy lynched as I think him a probable seer dream.)

Shasta, I think "never" is too strong a word. I'd say "we agree very seldom." :D I just think that I would rather try our chances on a wolf toDay and if we lynch an innocent, see the Unicorn go for example next Night with a slightly smaller chance of getting Greenie back and thus rob the wolf of a Night-kill rather than lynch the Unicorn toDay and have a slightly bigger chance of getting Greenie back and thus rob us of a lynch.

Anyway, now that we have found one wolf from her posts, her coming back doesn't matter so much anymore. It would be nice to get a known innocent or two, but to lynch the Unicorn just for the slight chance (1/5) of getting that doesn't make any sense to me.


edit: xed with Shasta

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Anyway, now that we have found one wolf from her posts, her coming back doesn't matter so much anymore. It would be nice to get a known innocent or two, but to lynch the Unicorn just for the slight chance (1/5) of getting that doesn't make any sense to me.


edit: xed with Shasta

Are you forgetting that the Ranger is still alive, Lommy? :p

[Thinlómien]

Are you forgetting that the Ranger is still alive, Lommy? No; I just can't see how it changes the situation. Unless I misread the rules, the resurrected gifted don't have their gifts anymore.

PS. It's getting late here. I'm off to brush teeth and change into pyjamas. I'll check this thread in 10 minutes, post if there's something worthy of commenting and go to sleep. :)

[Thinlómien]

The rules state:

1 Unicorn (totally stealing this from Lottie, cause I loved it): when they die I will put the names of all of the dead in a hat, including the Unicorn’s name. If the name I pick out is of an innocent (or Cobbler) they will come back, if it’s a Wolf than no one comes back. Everyone comes back as an Ordo (except Cobbler still Cobbler, and Shirriff still Shirriff if their partner is still alive).

[Shastanis Althreduin]

No; I just can't see how it changes the situation. Unless I misread the rules, the resurrected gifted don't have their gifts anymore.

PS. It's getting late here. I'm off to brush teeth and change into pyjamas. I'll check this thread in 10 minutes, post if there's something worthy of commenting and go to sleep. :)

Oh, do they not? That means I misread, I should go and look at that.

[Thinlómien]

Oh, do they not? That means I misread, I should go and look at that.Yep, it makes sense to check them every now and then if you're of the forgetful sort. (For example, I had forgotten that the Unicorn can resurrect him/herself as well as that the ranger can protect him/herself...could the hunter also have been able to hunt herself? :smokin: )

[Brinniel]

Lommy, unless something dramatic happens, I intend to vote Nerwen. I don't like this Morsul bandwagon, especially if he is the Unicorn. How can he be a wolf when he's encouraging votes against him? I seriously suspect Nerwen anyway, and really hope she's our last wolf. How nice it would be to pull off a WW game without a single innocent lynched.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Haha forgot that Legate exists. Sorry darling! :p
:(

...Well. Let me make a vote count, if possible...

So just let me see toDay's votes.

Morsul -> Morsul (Morsul 1)
Nerwen -> Skip (Skip 1, Morsul 1)
Shasta -> Morsul (Morsul 2, Skip 1)
Morsul -> --Morsul (Skip 1, Morsul 1)
Morsul -> Skip (Skip 2, Morsul 1)
Agan -> Nerwen (Skip 2, Morsul 1, Nerwen 1)
skip -> Morsul (Morsul 2, Skip 2, Nerwen 1)
Mira -> Morsul (Morsul 3, Skip 2, Nerwen 1)
Lommy -> Nerwen (Morsul 3, Nerwen 2, Skip 2)

Left to vote: Lottie, Brinn and possible retractors, and winty, if he exists. And me.

Okay, given that skip might have been a Seer dream... maybe letting him live... but then what? Doesn't look like lynching Shasta (although it would be still possible, but rather theoretically). Actually now I have also reread Morsul's posting and seems I have misinterpretated it before, I thought that he re-voted for skip only after skip voted him, now I realised that it was not so (he merely suspected him and voted him after that), it might have been also the way that Morsul saw Nerwen voting skip and merrily joined, copying Nerwen's own move she used against him (or rather: he used against himself) when she was a WW in my game. But that sounds a) rather complicated, b) possibly improbable to come up with even for Morsul's surprising agency. Anyway. Need to think. I could vote Nerwen for the peace of mind, but my suspicions for her basically equal nil. Might be "worth a shot" though, if I take it the way that it's really just a shot.

Will think and be back in a minute.

EDIT: x-ed since the start of the page

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Lommy, unless something dramatic happens, I intend to vote Nerwen. I don't like this Morsul bandwagon, especially if he is the Unicorn. How can he be a wolf when he's encouraging votes against him? I seriously suspect Nerwen anyway, and really hope she's our last wolf. How nice it would be to pull off a WW game without a single innocent lynched.

So should I say: "If you say so?"

Okay. Let's give it a shot. It makes one Day wasted at most. Since I am rather clueless otherwise and basically from the people voted for I don't want to vote skip and Morsul is not any particularly clearly better option either, here we go.

++Nerwen

This Day's been rather "sliding in the dark" for me, but then again it would be nice if we have nailed the last one and it will be done in a nice and smooth way.

[Thinlómien]

Haha forgot that Legate exists. Sorry darling! :(Aww, poor one. *hugs* If it helps, I also forgot about Lottie.

To say one last thing about the Unicorn topic: since the Unicorn can also come back himself, we have even slighter chances of getting Greenie back if we lynch Morsul, and we might even get Morsul himself back, which wouldn't make even frustrated Shasta feel better.

Anyway not sure if it makes sense to speculate about it any more since Morsul seems not to be around to say whether he claims being the Unicorn or not and we shouldn't definitely pressure the Unicorn to reveal anyway (although if it's Morsul there's not much to lose anymore...)


edit: xed with legate

[Thinlómien]

If we lynch Nerwen and she's a wolf, I say we're an incredible village. If we lynch her and she isn't, I'll be very sorry for lynching her without having much points of my own against her, but at least I won't be "what if"ing about her until she or me dies... :rolleyes:

So *crosses fingers*

And PS I'll really disapprove if we lynch Skippy or Morsul toDay (unless I'm wrong and one of them is a wolf, of course ;)).

Good night!

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

If we lynch Nerwen and she's a wolf, I say we're an incredible village. If we lynch her and she isn't, I'll be very sorry for lynching her without having much points of my own agaisnt her, but at least I won't be "waht if"ing about her until she or me dies... :rolleyes:
Yes, I have been thinking more or less the same.

And PS I'll really disapprove if we lynch Skippy or Morsul toDay (unless I'm worng and one of them is a wolf, of course ;)).

Good night!

Indeed. Let's just lynch her and get over with that - now that I have voted for her as well, I don't want it to go waste.

Good night.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

I would like to hear more from winty, to be quite honest.

That's about all the one-liners from me today, I'm heading out. I haven't looked at Nerwen specifically myself, but from what I can tell from her analyses she seems innocent to me. (Hopefully that's not me going "Hey, analyses! Innocent!" :p)

Honestly, I feel like today was a pretty wasted day for me, if we're not lynching Morsul. Sigh.

Shasta out.

[Brinniel]

Honestly, I feel like today was a pretty wasted day for me, if we're not lynching Morsul.

Why would the Day be wasted? I don't think we would get much out lynching Morsul at all.

Since there are still other voters left plus possible retractions, I'm holding off my vote for Nerwen for now in case of a tie.

[wilwarin538]

Note incase people didn't see admin thread:

I'm working tonight, so the DL is extended by an hour.

[wintywinty]

++Morsul I have no time, I have to leave within the next minute, but I have been suspecting him for a while.

[Loslote]

[U]Can somebody explain this Morsul-Sally thingy to me? Is it really so serious one of them would quit the game or do something about as drastic if they had to be packmates? Morsul voted Sally on early Day2 anyway, so if he was exasperated at being fellows with her after two Night-discussions, that would make sense. That's why I don't get how it proves his innocence...

Yes. :rolleyes:

Fine.

I think Morsul's the Unicorn and would like to trade him out, hopefully for Greenie.

Cold, Shasta! :p ...and makes rather good sense. However, I don't see why you think he's the Unicorn. If I knew for sure, I'd certainly consider voting him, but as I do not, I'd not be so eager.

But I don't suspect Skip, and I don't particularly suspect Nerwen...come to think of it, I don't particularly suspect anyone. :rolleyes:

[Brinniel]

Even if he is the Unicorn, lynching him won't do much for us. We'd have to be really lucky to get Greenie back and for all we know we could end up with Fea. It won't give us any extra Days either. So why would anyone want to lynch someone you think might be the Unicorn, when you could be lynching a wolf instead?

But really, I just don't understand how people find Morsul suspicious. If he's a wolf, then he's basically given up and I certainly hope that's not true because that would just be lame.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Yes. :rolleyes:



Cold, Shasta! :p ...and makes rather good sense. However, I don't see why you think he's the Unicorn. If I knew for sure, I'd certainly consider voting him, but as I do not, I'd not be so eager.

But I don't suspect Skip, and I don't particularly suspect Nerwen...come to think of it, I don't particularly suspect anyone. :rolleyes:


I'm actually back and can post, thanks to the DL extension.

Lottie, Morsul has been blatantly hinting at it all day. Plus the fact that he immediately 180'd his stance on me once I voted him, from "suspicious" to "innocent".

[Loslote]

Even if he is the Unicorn, lynching him won't do much for us. We'd have to be really lucky to get Greenie back and for all we know we could end up with Fea. It won't give us any extra Days either. So why would anyone want to lynch someone you think might be the Unicorn, when you could be lynching a wolf instead?

Think for a moment, Brinn. There's a 1/5 chance I might benefit from this, too. 2/5 chance I'd be happy. I like those odds. ;)

Now, something I just thought of:

Of course Greenie didn't say anything definitive on Day 1. The cobbler wasn't out yet. She couldn't know for sure that her known innocent was really innocent yet. After that, of course, she would know, so that might be something to look at later.

[Loslote]

Lottie, Morsul has been blatantly hinting at it all day. Plus the fact that he immediately 180'd his stance on me once I voted him, from "suspicious" to "innocent".

Hmm. Okay then, I'll probably vote him. In fact...

++Morsul

[Nerwen]

Having skimmed the thread, I find Brinn's continued case against me incredibly weak– it basically amounts to the fact that I didn't go all out for each wolf from the word go, but rather tried to work it out based on the evidence. As I have shown, this is actually quite an absurd accusation when compared to her own pattern.

However, I on the whole think she's more wrong than wolfish, and anyway I'm going to have to vote to save myself, it seems, so–

--skip
++Morsul.

EDIT:X'd since Loslote at #774.

[Brinniel]

Lottie, are you really voting for someone because you think they're innocent?

Gah, I give up. Why even bother? :rolleyes:

I guess I'll just have to hope for the unlikely scenario that Morsul's actually a wolf.

Anyway, there's no point in voting now. But you know who it'd be for....I still think she's furry.

[Loslote]

Lottie, are you really voting for someone because you think they're innocent?

Yeah, pretty much. :p Seriously, though, it should help.

[Brinniel]

Yeah, you'll have to explain that toMorrow because I find lynching a potential wolf more beneficial.

[Loslote]

Yeah, you'll have to explain that toMorrow because I find lynching a potential wolf more beneficial.

I don't if I don't suspect her. Anyway...*shushes*

[Morsul the Dark]

Not unicorn but out of way now. Losing won't be my fault WOO!

[Nerwen]

Why isn't Morsul a potential wolf, Brinn?

X'd with Lottie and Morsul.

[wilwarin538]

~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~

Alirin ran and ran down the path, trying her hardest not to cry after her terrible encounter with the Hunter Queen and the Headless King. She grew tired of running after a while and started to walk again. Not long and she heard some crying again.

She turned a corner and saw an odd creature sitting on a rock and crying. Alirin walked up to him slowly and asked him why he was so dreadfully upset.

“Sit down,” the Mock Turtle said, “and don’t say a word until I’m finished.” So Alirin sat down.

“Once, I was a real Turtle” the Mock Turtle said with a mournful sigh. This was followed by an extraordinarily long pause.

“When we were little,” he finally continued, “we went to school, and the master was an old turtle – we used to call him Tortoise...”

“Why did you call him Tortoise if he wasn’t one?” Alirin asked.

“We called him Tortoise because he taught us,” the Mock Turtle said angrily, “you are very dull!”

“What courses did you take in school?” Alirin asked, ignoring his insult.

“Reeling and Writhing of course, to begin with-“ the Mock Turtle said, “and then the different branches of Arithmetic – Ambition, Distraction, Uglification, and Derision.”

“I never heard of “Uglification”” Alirin said.

“Well then,” the Mock Turtle said, “if you don’t know what to uglify is, you are a simpleton.”

“What else did you learn?” Alirin asked, feeling rather bored and annoyed with the insults.

“There was Mystery, ancient and modern, Seaography, Drawling, Stretching and Fainting in Coils.” the Mock Turtle answered, counting each subject on his flappers.

“How many hours of lessons did you do a day?”

“10 the first day, 9 the next, and so on...” the Mock Turtle said, with another deep sigh.

“That is an odd plan!” Alirin exclaimed.

“That’s the reason they’re called lessons, because they lessen from day to day.” the Mock Turtle answered. This was again followed by a long moment of silence. Then the Mock Turtle began to sing.

Beautiful Soup, so rich and green,
Waiting in a hot tureen!
Who for such dainties would not stoop?
Soup of the evening, beautiful Soup!
Soup of the evening, beautiful Soup!
Beau-ootiful Soo-oop!
Beau-ootiful Soo-oop!
Soo-oop of the e—e—evening,
Beautiful, beautiful Soup

Before Alirin could even react to the odd song a large bowl of soup flew out from behind a tree and smacked the Mock Turtle over the head. He sat there for a moment slightly dazed and waving back and forth when suddenly a spoon came out from behind the tree and hit him as well, causing him to drop dead off his rock.

Alirin walked away slowly and continued down the path, by now not at all shocked by the sudden death of everyone she met, and wanting more than ever to return home.

~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~

Dead
Fea - Red Queen - Cobbler - lynched Day 1
Boro - the Caterpillar - Shirriff - killed Night 2
Sally - the Dormouse - Wolf - lynched Day 2
Izzy - White Rabbit - Ordinary - killed Night 3
Glirdan - Mad Hatter - Wolf - lynched Day 3
Greenie - White Night - Seer - killed Night 4
Nogrod – Cheshire Cat – Wolf – lynched Day 4
Nienna - White Queen - Hunter - killed Night 5
Inzil - King of Hearts - Ordinary - hunter killed Night 5
Morsul - Mock Turtle - Ordinary - lynched Day 5

Alive
Wintywinty – Tweedledum
Mira – March Hare
Agan – Queen of Hearts
Shasta – Knave of Hearts
Lottie – Duchess
Nerwen – the Dodo
Legate – Jabberwocky
Skip – Humpty Dumpty
Lommy – the Gryphon
Brinniel – Tweedledee

Now Night 6.

[wilwarin538]

Alirin continued to walk down the path.

And she walked.

And she walked.

But she did not meet anyone interesting for quite some time.

~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~

It is now Day 6. No one died.

[Loslote]

Okay, so probably Cursed (unless there was a Ranger save). Now, looking at the past pattern of wolf-kills, they've been going for the people no one suspected, so who did they probably kill last Night?

Suspected pretty strongly
Nerwen

Suspected somewhat
Shasta
Skip
Mira

Suspected very little
Winty
Brinn

Suspected not at all
Lottie
Legate
Agan
Lommy

~~~

So perhaps one of the Europeans were Cursed? Or Brinn or WW? And probably one of the top two categories was the original wolf.

[Nerwen]

So, that's either a Ranger-save, or the Cursed's been turned. (Or the wolf forgot to send in the kill.)

You're not going to tell us which, dear Moddess?

EDIT:X'd with Lottie.

[Brinniel]

wilwa, were you planning to let us know if the cursed was turned or the ranger made a save? Or are we left in the dark on this one?

Right now there's three scenarios:

1) the cursed was turned

2) the ranger successfully protected someone

3) the wolf didn't submit a kill

I'm hoping it's not number one.

EDIT: Just realised Nerwen said basically the same thing, heh.

[Loslote]

EDIT: Just realised Nerwen said basically the same thing, heh.

Huh. That's interesting. This could either be two wolves planning this so that they look better or two innocents honestly thinking the same thing or one wolf and one innocent. I don't think it's the first one, though. It just seems so unlikely...and it could backfire so easily. So...I don't think Brinn and Nerwen are packmates from this.

[Brinniel]

Btw Lottie (and perhaps Shasta too), can you please explain to me how lynching an innocent Morsul is soo helpful to us? I'm really curious about this one. :rolleyes:

Why isn't Morsul a potential wolf, Brinn?
I already stated this. Morsul was attracting attention and trying to get himself lynched. A lone wolf would not do that because he'd lose the game not just for himself, but his entire team. Giving up would be a selfish and lame move, and I didn't think Morsul would do that.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Huh. That's interesting. This could either be two wolves planning this so that they look better or two innocents honestly thinking the same thing or one wolf and one innocent. I don't think it's the first one, though. It just seems so unlikely...and it could backfire so easily. So...I don't think Brinn and Nerwen are packmates from this.

I'm going to agree that Nerwen and Brinn probably aren't packmates even if the Cursed /was/ turned last night - not after the way they suspected each other yesterday.

[Brinniel]

Lottie, that's just me not paying attention to the posts before posting myself. I can be dumb like that.

[Nerwen]

So perhaps one of the Europeans were Cursed? Or Brinn or WW? And probably one of the top two categories was the original wolf.

I don't know if it's safe to assume that, Lottie. What I'm really afraid of is that the last wolf may have been able to slip through without revealing any ties to his or her companions.

By the way, I'm not happy about the suspicion against me yesterDay. In my view the "case" against me was paper-thin– though it's true that it was going to be hard to make a really strong case against anyone at that point.

EDIT:X'd since Lottie.

[wintywinty]

Alive
Wintywinty – Tweedledum
Mira – March Hare
Agan – Queen of Hearts
Shasta – Knave of Hearts
Lottie – Duchess
Nerwen – the Dodo
Legate – Jabberwocky
Skip – Humpty Dumpty
Lommy – the Gryphon
Brinniel – Tweedledee

4 Wolves: PM at Night and choose someone to kill, win when their number matches or is greater than the number of innocents.
-Sally
-Glirdan
-Nogrod
-Unknown

1 Cursed: if chosen as the Night kill, will become a Wolf. Does not know their role, but the role will be revealed when they die. Seer sees them as an Ord.
-Unknown

1 Seer: chooses 1 person a Night and finds out their role.
-Greenie

1 Hunter: chooses one person to hunt, when they die their choice will die too no matter their role. They can change their pick once every Night and Day.
-Nienna

1 Ranger: can’t protect the same person 2 Nights in a row, and cannot protect themselves.
-Unknown

1 Cobbler: wants the Wolves to win, but is counted as an innocent and seen as innocent by the Seer. Role revealed when they die.
-Fea

2 Shirriffs: Basically just PM pals (Night and Day), don’t die together or anything, and can’t reveal their roles while both are still alive.
-Boro
-Lottie
1 Unicorn: when they die I will put the names of all of the dead in a hat, including the Unicorn’s name. If the name I pick out is of an innocent (or Cobbler) they will come back to life, if it’s a Wolf than no one comes back. Everyone comes back as an Ordo (except Cobbler still Cobbler, and Shirriff still Shirriff if their partner is still alive).
-Unknown
+ 7 Ordos: vote to kill Wolves, win when all Wolves are dead.
-Izzy
-Inzil
-Morsul
-Unknown
-Unknown
-Unknown
-Unknown

In Recap, there is one wolf (possibly two now), the cursed (possibly a wolf now), A ranger, A unicorn, and 4 ordos left in the game.
Something I noticed, there are 19 roles listed, but 20 players started the game. What role does the last person have?

[Shastanis Althreduin]

In all likelihood, winty, that person is another ordo.

Brinn, I still feel like yesterday was the best time to lynch the Unicorn and try to get Greenie (or even Izzy, or Boro) back. And with all the hints Morsul was dropping yesterday, I was sure he was the Unicorn.

[Mirandir]

Of the three options, my money is on ranger save. I feel like the narration would say something more interesting than nothing if the cursed had been turned. It's also unlikely the last wolf forgot to send in a kill. At this point it's too important to not remember to do. Thus, ranger save.

[Nerwen]

Of the three options, my money is on ranger save. I feel like the narration would say something more interesting than nothing if the cursed had been turned. It's also unlikely the last wolf forgot to send in a kill. At this point it's too important to not remember to do. Thus, ranger save.

Mira, the narration usually says "something more interesting" when there's been a Ranger save too. I think our moddess is deliberately trying to leave us in the dark.

The following is more a personal thinking out post– obviously half the logic here rests on my being innocent, and only the wolf (or wolves) knows I'm telling the truth:

Now, about yesterDay: so there were three lynch-candidates. Of those, I happen to know that the only one who could have been a wolf is Skip. So Wolf 4 I think, more likely to be among the bandwagon-hoppers than those who really pushed to lynch Morsul or me. (Legate? Mira? Skip himself? Lommy?)

This logic would, then, rule out Shasta, Brinn or Aganbeing a wolf yesterDay.

(But that's still quite a big assumption– they're all experienced players who might deliberately do the opposite of what you'd expect.)

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Mira, the narration usually says "something more interesting" when there's been a Ranger save too. I think our moddess is deliberately trying to leave us in the dark.

The following is more a personal thinking out post– obviously half the logic here rests on my being innocent, and only the wolf (or wolves) knows I'm telling the truth:

Now, about yesterDay: so there were three lynch-candidates. Of those, I happen to know that the only one who could have been a wolf is Skip. So Wolf 4 I think, more likely to be among the bandwagon-hoppers than those who really pushed to lynch Morsul or me. (Legate? Mira? Skip himself? Lommy?)

This logic would, then, rule out Shasta, Brinn or Aganbeing a wolf yesterDay.

(But that's still quite a big assumption– they're all experienced players who might deliberately do the opposite of what you'd expect.)

Nerwen, this post being from your point-of-view... does this mean you don't suspect Brinn of being a wolf any more?

[Nerwen]

Nerwen, this post being from your point-of-view... does this mean you don't suspect Brinn of being a wolf any more?

Nah. Actually I suspect everyone except Lottie. I'm just trying to think things through.

[Loslote]

Btw Lottie (and perhaps Shasta too), can you please explain to me how lynching an innocent Morsul is soo helpful to us? I'm really curious about this one. :rolleyes:


I already stated this. Morsul was attracting attention and trying to get himself lynched. A lone wolf would not do that because he'd lose the game not just for himself, but his entire team. Giving up would be a selfish and lame move, and I didn't think Morsul would do that.

1. I didn't like the other two options (Nerwen and Skip). I figured they were at best ordos, and at worst gifted (although if so, they might have revealed). Morsul I figured was at worst ordo and at best the unicorn, which could give us Greenie (and thus several roles, including a possible wolf - we don't know who she dreamed her last Night) or Boro (and a functional Shirriff team) or a known innocent (always helpful).

2. He might well. He did that to his innocent team, now didn't he? :rolleyes:

[Nerwen]

See, that's the other thing about Brinniel– she sounded like she knew Morsul was innocent.

And I guess the wolf would care which innocent got lynched if it seemed likely one was the Unicorn. But then, she suspected me before that came up.

So... still on the fence.

[skip spence]

1 Cursed: if chosen as the Night kill, will become a Wolf. Does not know their role, but the role will be revealed when they die.

That is somewhat ambiguous, isn't it? The role will be revealed "when they die".

If a cursed was struck tonight the question is whether he or she first died and then rose up as a wolf or merely turned into a wolf without dying. The latter seems more likely to me if it wasn't a ranger-save, and wouldn't require the role to be revealed. Otherwise the narration would have to tell us that someone was turned into a wolf tonight. Ultimately, there's no way of knowing unless Wilwa tells us.

In any case we need to focus on smoking out the last remaining wolf. If he or she then has a cub left in the litter we deal with that one too.

[Aganzir]

to lynch the Unicorn just for the slight chance (1/5) of getting that doesn't make any sense to me.
Where did that 1/5 come from? If we lynched the unicorn today, there would be a 1/11 chance that Greenie comes back, 2/11 for Lottie to be happy and 3/11 that no one is resurrected.
And the ranger can't protect herself.

I'm going to agree that Nerwen and Brinn probably aren't packmates even if the Cursed /was/ turned last night - not after the way they suspected each other yesterday.
Why? It's certain they couldn't be packmates yesterday, but there's nothing to say that if one of them is a wolf she went after the other (for whatever reason) and found her cursed.

Whether the cursed was turned or not, our safest bet is to try to find the fourth wolf instead of arguing what happened in the night. Either wilwa tells us or not. I'd rather consider today the continuation of yesterday with practically no new information - yeah Morsul died but it's hardly surprising he was innocent.

So, 10 of us alive now. In the worst case scenario (no ranger saves, no unicorn kill/unicorn doesn't bring anyone back), if there's just one wolf left she has to survive for five days. If there are two wolves, however, they have to stay alive for three days. So I'd say we can afford one mislynch, at most two.
And our situation becomes considerably worse if the unicorn brings Fea back.

What I'm really afraid of is that the last wolf may have been able to slip through without revealing any ties to his or her companions.
Do you have a specific reason to think so?

In my view the "case" against me was paper-thin
Paper-thin or not, there were some questions I'd like to see answers to.

Of the three options, my money is on ranger save.
It's possible but better not to count on it. And if the cursed was turned, it would be in the fourth wolf's interests to give us a false sense of safety. Which means your comment made you rise again on my suspicion list.

See, that's the other thing about Brinniel– she sounded like she knew Morsul was innocent.
And you sounded like you knew Glirdan was a wolf.

[Aganzir]

If a cursed was struck tonight the question is whether he or she first died and then rose up as a wolf or merely turned into a wolf without dying. The latter seems more likely to me if it wasn't a ranger-save, and wouldn't require the role to be revealed. Otherwise the narration would have to tell us that someone was turned into a wolf tonight. Ultimately, there's no way of knowing unless Wilwa tells us.
What happened in the night if the cursed was turned:
wolf: *stalks towards cursed* "Heya mate I'm here to kill you rawr!"
cursed: "Yikes!"
wolf: *bites*
cursed: *sprouts fur* "Omigod I didn't die!"
wolf: "Let's go kick some village butt yay!"

So basically the cursed didn't die, ergo there's no need to reveal her role (and doing that would kind of undermine the point of having a cursed anyway). It will be revealed when/if she's lynched.

And everybody except the wolf/wolves and the gifteds sleep tightly at night and don't know what exactly has been going on... so it's understandable wilwa didn't tell us any more. However because this is a game, we have a right to be curious and try to pester her until she reveals stuff. ;):p

[Nerwen]

Quote:
Originally Posted by Nerwen
What I'm really afraid of is that the last wolf may have been able to slip through without revealing any ties to his or her companions.
Do you have a specific reason to think so?

Well, so far I haven't been able to work out who it could be.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Nerwen
In my view the "case" against me was paper-thin
Paper-thin or not, there were some questions I'd like to see answers to.

Sure. Fire away.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mirandir
Of the three options, my money is on ranger save.
It's possible but better not to count on it. And if the cursed was turned, it would be in the fourth wolf's interests to give us a false sense of safety. Which means your comment made you rise again on my suspicion list.

You know something? Mira played in Werewolf LXXII: Now There's the Truth of It!, in which when the Cursed was turned, all we were told in the narration was, "Nobody died". Mind you, Mira herself was dead by then.

[wilwarin538]

You're not going to tell us which, dear Moddess?

EDIT:X'd with Lottie.

That is somewhat ambiguous, isn't it? The role will be revealed "when they die".

If a cursed was struck tonight the question is whether he or she first died and then rose up as a wolf or merely turned into a wolf without dying. The latter seems more likely to me if it wasn't a ranger-save, and wouldn't require the role to be revealed. Otherwise the narration would have to tell us that someone was turned into a wolf tonight. Ultimately, there's no way of knowing unless Wilwa tells us.


Hypothetically if the Cursed was turned I would not tell you. If the Cursed dies before being turned I would say "Cursed" beside their name. If the Cursed dies after being turned I would say "Cursed-Wolf" beside their name. Either way you find out only if they die, not when they originally get turned.

So yes it was either a Ranger save or the Cursed was turned or the Wolf forgot to give a kill. No I'm not telling you which. Yes I am enjoying this.

[skip spence]

Voting Day 4

1) Morsul on Morsul
2) Nerwen on skip spence
3) Morsul on skip spence (2) (retracts earlier vote)
4) Shasta on Morsul
5) Agan on Nerwen
6) skip spence on Morsul (2)
7) Mira on Morsul (3)
8) Lommy on Nerwen (2)
9) Legate on Nerwen (3)
10) WinWin on Morsul (4)
11) Lottie on Morsul (5)
12) Nerwen on Morsul (6) (retracts earlier vote)

Final vote tally:
Morsul 6
Nerwen 3
Skip 1

Interesting to note is that Nerwen uses her retraction "to save herself" although this in fact was not as vital as I first thought. When Nerwen re-voted Morsul was on 5 votes while Nerwen was on 3 with only Brinn left to vote, so even without the retraction she'd likely have survived.

Also, why did you not vote Brinn? There was still a chance to lynch Nerwen. All it would take was one person retracting his or her Morsul vote and re-voting Nerwen.

[Nerwen]

Interesting to note is that Nerwen uses her retraction "to save herself" although this in fact was not as vital as I first thought. When Nerwen re-voted Morsul was on 5 votes while Nerwen was on 3 with only Brinn left to vote, so even without the retraction she'd likely have survived.

Also, why did you not vote Brinn? There was still a chance to lynch Nerwen. All it would take was one person retracting his or her Morsul vote and re-voting Nerwen.

Do you really not see the contradiction between these two paragraphs, Skip?:confused:

N.B. My vote-post X'd with Lottie's, anyway.

[Aganzir]

I'm continuing my Nog's interactions analyse but because I have to leave in half an hour I'm not sure I have time to finish it (if not will complete it in the evening).

Btw wilwa, does the ranger know if she managed to save somebody or not? When you think of it, it'd make sense if she did (after all she drove the wolf away... unless even the sight of her was enough to drive the wolf away).

As for the questions Nerwen, I'd like to direct you here (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=627734&postcount=715). :p

You know something? Mira played in Werewolf LXXII: Now There's the Truth of It!, in which when the Cursed was turned, all we were told in the narration was, "Nobody died". Mind you, Mira herself was dead by then.
What does it have to do with anything?

[skip spence]

Do you really not see the contradiction between these two paragraphs, Skip?

There's no direct contradiction. I said you'd likely survive even without the retraction.

If you are innocent I think it more probable that you'd take the risk of keeping the retraction and hoping none shows up to vote again. The consequences for the innocent team wouldn't have been that bad if this happened.

However, if you are a wolf, the consequences of getting lynched then would have been the greatest imaginable: the game would be instantly lost. There would be no comfort-zone to take chances.

[Aganzir]

winty. Nog didn't speak much of him but was sort of protective towards him; he attacked Zil for criticising winty's vote and said that winty looked suspicious but was most likely just a newbie. On day 3 Nog thought winty's vote was good as it put Glirdan even more clearly in the lead. Winty himself didn't say anything about Nog but voted for him on day 4.

Mira. Nog keeps a distance to her and doesn't say anything definite about her, which looks somewhat suspicious (but then, she wasn't the only one). On day 1 he thought she could be a sneaky wolf but voting her a shot in the dark, on day 2 she didn't feel honest and voted too easy (winty), and the fact that she introduced a new candidate might mean she tried to save Glirdan. When she got votes on day 3 he said he didn't know about her but we could lynch her if we liked. This could really go either way: "Sure go ahead lynch an innocent!" or "If you lynch her let no one say I tried to save her!"
I might have missed a post but I can't see Mira would've said anything worth mentioning about Nog.

Agan. I'm obviously not going to analyse myself but if someone wants to do it, my summary of Nog's interactions is here (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=627766&postcount=743).

Shasta. Nog seemed to always be slightly suspicious of Shasta and sort of suspected him for suspecting Morsul. He said that if Glirdan's a wolf, Shasta (and Mira) looks quite bad... and because this happened after Green had begun to suspect Nog, I wonder if he'd intentionally bring attention on his fellows as, even though he hadn't been suspected so far, the tide was obviously turning.
As for Shasta, he started paying more attention to Nog on day 3, saying that calling winty an easy lynch was just an excuse for him to suspect anyone who suspected winty. On day 4 he thought Nog was a hypocrite when it came to easy lynches.
There was Nog's attack on Shasta on day 4, but I'm not sure he would've done that if Shasta was his fellow... It's possible Shasta was just the one he thought he could lynch the most easily. But I'd rather not pay too much attention to what he said or did on day 4 because he probably knew he was going to die and no one knows if he was bluffing or double-bluffing.

Nerwen. Nog kept a distance to her as well; on day 1 he said she speaks sense and is dangerous unless one has a reason to suspect her, and on day 3 she looked good for having added a vote for a wolf on day 2.
Nerwen talked about Nog a bit more than he about her but didn't reach any more conclusions before day 4. She said his row with Inzil didn't look good but might have been a language problem. On day 4 she went through his posts, starting with "could go either way" but becoming gradually more suspicious (the general opinion against Nog became more accusing too). She voted for him late and said that if somebody else jumped out as more suspicious she might switch (ie if there was a last-minute bandwagon against somebody else?).
It might be good if somebody else went through Nerwen too because I'm personally more or less confident she's a wolf which means I might see things through slightly wolf-coloured glasses even if I try not to.

Legate. See Nerwen. Nog talked about those two in almost identical words.
Legate on the other hand talks about Nog without a qualm and doesn't look like he was trying to maintain a distance. On the first days he mostly just agreed with Nog but didn't have an opinion of him. On day 4 he brought forward (twice) the possibility that the wolves had tried to frame Nog by killing Green but in the end he voted for him.
Wavering like that doesn't look very good for Legate but if they were fellows, I don't think he'd be so clumsy...

skip. On the first two days Nog thought skip made sense and felt good. On day 3 however he pointed out that skip was defending Glirdan. It could be opportunistic Wolfgrod trying to make the best of a fellow's death or, if they were fellows, he might have wanted to be the first to point it out so he could maintain control of the situation, if you get what I mean. And he sort of mitigated it in the end, anyway. For the actual post, see here (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=627341&postcount=521).
On day 3 skip didn't like it how Green suspected Nog, although only after Inzil had started to talk about it. On day 4 he didn't really talk about Nog, began to get worried about him quite late and ended up voting for Shasta. It doesn't really look very flattering to him... but then again I do wonder if skipwolf had been so obvious.

Lommy. Glirdan's being a wolf would make Lommy look more innocent, said Nog on day 3, but that's pretty much all.
Lommy herself named Nog as one of her suspects as early as on day 2 and was, I think, the first to do it. On day 4 she contributed heavily to his lynching. While I think Wolflómien could've done it too, it seems more likely Lommy isn't his fellow.

Brinniel. On day 1 Nog said she's reasonable and scary, on day 2 that there were points against her (and Glirdan) to a lesser degree. He also said that there are fair points against sally, and even though we're talking about Nog here, I kind of doubt he would've suspected all of his fellows so early. He thought Brinn's day 3 vote was good but pointed out she didn't mention Glirdan at all.
On day 2 Brinn found Nog reasonable, and on day 4 she said it was possible he was a wolf although the wolves could also have tried to frame him. She voted for him, saying she'd be surprised if he was innocent.

Likely fellows
Nerwen. Even if I hadn't been suspicious of her before, I think she'd make it here.

Possible fellows
winty
Mira
Legate
skip

Unlikely fellows
Shasta. I suppose it's possible he was a wolf with Nog, but I think it's rather unlikely.
Lommy
Brinn. I debated whether I should put her here or in Possible fellows and decided it'd be a tad too risky even for Nog to name all of his fellows as suspicious on day 2.

Alright I must go now... will be back later.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Nerwen
You know something? Mira played in Werewolf LXXII: Now There's the Truth of It!, in which when the Cursed was turned, all we were told in the narration was, "Nobody died". Mind you, Mira herself was dead by then.
What does it have to do with anything?

Isn't it obvious? Mira's saying the lack of information probably means a Ranger save, but she's recently played in a game where the same thing meant the Cursed had been found. So it seems an odd assumption to make.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Nerwen
Do you really not see the contradiction between these two paragraphs, Skip?
There's no direct contradiction. I said you'd likely survive even without the retraction.

If you are innocent I think it more probable that you'd take the risk of keeping the retraction and hoping none shows up to vote again. The consequences for the innocent team wouldn't have been that bad if this happened.

Excuse me. Each innocent lost is a blow to the village and a plus to the evil side. Therefore it's an innocent's duty to save him or herself over an unknown. And why should I have thought no-one else would vote for me? Brinn had given every indication she would.

Aganzir, as for your "case" on me here (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=627734&postcount=715):

1. The fact that I commented on wintywinty's random vote on Day One. At that time this– and Fea's similar vote– were the only noteworthy things that had happened. So I commented on them. That's all. You jumped on this and went on and on about it, quite obsessively. There is no case for me to answer here.

2. I suspected Glirdan, for perfectly good reasons. Note that Morsul– known innocent– also suspected him from the start of Day 2. Since I only suspected him, rather than knowing his role, I also tried to be fair by bringing up points in his favour as well as those against him. It's not my way to simply decide someone's guilty before I've even examined the evidence.

3. Originally Posted by Nerwen
Now, Greenie's death does not look like a no-trace kill, as she'd attracted quite a bit of suspicion. So I think it's likely the wolves guessed her identity, and/or had a specific motive for killing her (framing someone, taking the heat off a wolf, double-bluffing, etc...)
I think that comment is awfully fishy. Framing whom? If the wolves guessed her identity, it was most likely because Nog was her top suspect. It looks like you were suggesting the wolves wanted to frame innocent Nog.

Yes. That was before I'd analysed him and seemed a possibility at that point.

4. Nogrod. Again, I didn't know his role, therefore I looked at both sides of the case before deciding to vote him.

5. Brinn's comment was out of context, in that she makes no mention of the fact that a.) this was early in the Day, b.) the rest of the post contained an (implied) case for Sally's intending to play Seer (thus implicating Glirdan) c.) I later analysed Glirdan's interactions with Sally and concluded he was more likely guilty than not. Let me ask you, Agan: how is it not out of context?

6. I said I found my analysis of Brinn inconclusive, because it was. No ulterior motive.

7. I voted Skip because I needed to vote in a hurry, and he seemed the most suspicious person. Yes, Greenie said he looked innocent, but she said that about a lot of people– we can't know for sure. Again, no ulterior motive. The end.

Happy now?

EDIT:typo.

[Mirandir]

Isn't it obvious? Mira's saying the lack of information probably means a Ranger save, but she's recently played in a game where the same thing meant the Cursed had been found. So it seems an odd assumption to make.

No, I said it might mean a Ranger save and that's what I was personally leaning toward. Also, when I die that early on in games I tend not to follow what happens. So sorry, dear, that's a very shaky assumption you've made. :rolleyes:

[Nerwen]

No, I said it might mean a Ranger save and that's what I was personally leaning toward. Also, when I die that early on in games I tend not to follow what happens.

Fair enough. I usually do, that's all.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Okay, I am here. So basically, we don't know what exactly has happened toNight and wilwa is actually not going to tell us at all. Well originally I sort of assumed that if a Ranger-save or a Cursed-turning happened, then we would be told in the narration, but since the Moddess stated otherwise, it can be anything. Whatever, I guess like somebody said we do not have much chance of unveiling it. If it was a Cursed-turning, we'd learn sooner or later, otherwise, of course the Ranger would know at least if it was a save. That said, I have been thinking whether actually some Gifteds coming out at some point wouldn't make sense, or at least later it could prove good (having lots of known innocents around, especially if Lottie is still around, and narrowing the choices a lot for us), but then on the other hand again, it would probably also narrow the choice for the Wolf to get the Cursed villager (if it has not been turned yet) and also, it would likely mean that the Unicorn would not ever be killed at all, which would basically reduce him/her to a known innocent (and his/her main importance right now is probably in that if a Wolf is stumbling at Night and killing people, that he/she accidentally kills an Unicorn and revives somebody, thus effectively negating the kill and creating a known innocent, and esp. if it returned some Greenie or something, it would be quite good).

But anyway, back to general thoughts... first in any case, I believe it wasn't clever for certain to turn around the lynch like it was yesterDay (well in general, even though I had no particularly deep suspicion for Nerwen, after I have decided to vote her, it was sort of disappointing to see "just" Morsul die, also because I was sort of "reading" him a lot better than Nerwen, who is basically enigmatic person otherwise). Sort of disappointing in that regard.

I will take a look at the yesterDay's votes now, to sort of review how it went and if there is a chance to get something out of it.

Otherwise, whatever has happened at Night, I guess since the Moddess is not giving us any hints, I think we should just continue as we go now - and if we lynch the last Wolf and the game does not end (or if later at Night something happens and we actually will be informed that the Cursed has been turned), the game will continue and then we can focus on the task there (and in such a case probably have some guidelines for finding any Wolf-interactions then). For that matter, if the Cursing did happen toNight, I would be most worried about Lommy then, as she was generally considered innocent, I believe, so I guess she would be a likely target for the Wolf. Also if this Night was missing the kill, I'd consider it more likely that the Wolf is Mira, or possibly WW (both of them sort of not being around that much - then again, however, if I were to choose, WW has quite a "clean" voting list, as I noted before). But whatever, leaving this for now.

Anyway, I am going to just review yesterDay's voting, like I said, and then hopefully post some thoughts on people in general. I guess I will focus mainly on my suspects from before, as I still think the Wolves are most likely to be among those with "uncertain voting patterns", but let's see...

[Shastanis Althreduin]

If it was a Cursed-turning, we'd learn sooner or later, otherwise, of course the Ranger would know at least if it was a save.

Why? If the Ranger saved Person A, and the wolf attacked Person B (the cursed), the Ranger wouldn't have any idea, would they? This seems like an odd assumption to make.

In other news, I dislike the way winty just keeps popping in at the last second to vote. It's really starting to look like overwhelmed-newbie-wolf to me, but I still have several people to look at.

[Brinniel]

By the way, I'm not happy about the suspicion against me yesterDay. In my view the "case" against me was paper-thin– though it's true that it was going to be hard to make a really strong case against anyone at that point.
You may see it that way, but I don't. Your actions on Day 3 and especially Day 4 look clearly suspicious to me.

See, that's the other thing about Brinniel– she sounded like she knew Morsul was innocent.
I didn't know Morsul was innocent, but I was pretty certain about it because it just wasn't logical that he would be a wolf.

Where did that 1/5 come from? If we lynched the unicorn today, there would be a 1/11 chance that Greenie comes back, 2/11 for Lottie to be happy and 3/11 that no one is resurrected.
Exactly. The odds are so low, it doesn't make sense to lynch the unicorn just for the possibility that Greenie could come back. And while any other innocent would be nice, they won't necessarily provide us with that much more help and could end up being very misguided about who the last wolf is.

Also, why did you not vote Brinn? There was still a chance to lynch Nerwen. All it would take was one person retracting his or her Morsul vote and re-voting Nerwen.
Yeah, which was clearly unlikely. winty seemed pretty much gone by then. Nerwen used her retraction to save herself, and would obviously never vote for herself anyway. Lottie was the only one to convince, and I tried to persuade her to vote Nerwen and failed. By then, it was too late to persuade her to change it, and I'm quite certain she wouldn't have used her only retraction anyway when she seemed quite happy with her vote on Morsul. Even though my vote would've made no difference, I probably should've made one anyway simply for vote record reasons, but I was so irritated at the time, I couldn't be bothered with it.

If you are innocent I think it more probable that you'd take the risk of keeping the retraction and hoping none shows up to vote again. The consequences for the innocent team wouldn't have been that bad if this happened.
Not necessarily. I've seen innocents retract to save themselves before.


Okay, since we don't know what happened last Night, we should keep the possibility of a cursed turning in the back of our minds, but not yet attempt to go about looking for one just yet. The smartest thing we can do is find the last wolf and if we do and the game's still going, then obviously the cursed has been turned. I think killing the final wolf is really the only way to know what happened for sure.

Btw, if we were to lynch the cursed, would the narration indicate whether that cursed had indeed been turned, or would we be left guessing?

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Okay, so in general not very sure much could be gathered from yesterDay's votes, but I sort of did not expect much, now that we can't count on any Wolf saving a Wolf there (or voting on Wolf, for that matter). Some people voted in self-preservation, which makes sense in any case, and otherwise the bandwaggons were not that big and were rather equal in size, so it's hard to judge. I guess the main evidence for us especially now still lays in people's interactions before.

I still trust Lommy, and Aganzir (well, like I said earlier). I am still not sure about Shasta, although his yesterDay's vote does not make him look any worse to me, it does not also make it better as it basically does not say anything, and there are still his earlier relations or attitudes towards the Wolves (or their behavior towards him) which could just as well be careful unpackmating.

I am of course, after yesterDay, sort of disappointed of not lynching Nerwen, maybe now I could actually re-read her also more deeply (although in general she also makes lots of lists and that's just rather long/annoying/not informative to read). If I were to say now where we could find the remaining Wolf, I would really go for either of Shasta, Mira and Nerwen (although I'd rather re-check her first, like I said). It is sort of funny how I said that Mira originally voiced only her suspicion of Morsul (sort of "in concert" with others) and later when the bandwaggon starts rolling she will jump on it, which she exactly did in the end. It is true that she had voiced suspicion for him before that, although it was several days ago, but of course we cannot say if it might not have been just something that she found now good to use. But anyway, generally she really hasn't been around very much - so especially that way we cannot have much of information about her possible interaction with the other Wolves. Otherwise, if I were to continue elsewhere, I could think about Skip too (the old question of him being either a rather good newbie Wolf or an "individualistic innocent"); his vote yesterDay might having been joining a bandwaggon "for a good reason" (something similar could be said about Shasta's vote also), but still I am sort of thinking that Greenie might have dreamed of him. If it were not for that, I would be suspecting him probably quite a bit by now, but right now he is not seeming that likely to me. Then also WW is a possibility, but he's again rather on the far side of the line.

EDIT: okay, seems something is happening at last. X-ed since my last post.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Why? If the Ranger saved Person A, and the wolf attacked Person B (the cursed), the Ranger wouldn't have any idea, would they? This seems like an odd assumption to make.
Well, that depends on the game's mechanics. I wouldn't have thought of that, but then, I am generally used to the fact that saves and whatnot are announced in the narrations. If I was doing it, I would probably send a PM to the Ranger in reply, saying "you saved XY" if it was the case, although now given our Moddesses behavior, it seems somewhat less likely for her to act like that. But anyway, well... who knows, I say let's leave the issue for now and concentrate on the present.

Btw, if we were to lynch the cursed, would the narration indicate whether that cursed had indeed been turned, or would we be left guessing?

As for this, I have been also wondering if we'd learn that, like, it would be nice to have a: "XXX - lynched on Day X - cursed" or something as announcement there. I guess that would make sense - but anyway... let's see.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Hypothetically if the Cursed was turned I would not tell you. If the Cursed dies before being turned I would say "Cursed" beside their name. If the Cursed dies after being turned I would say "Cursed-Wolf" beside their name. Either way you find out only if they die, not when they originally get turned.

So yes it was either a Ranger save or the Cursed was turned or the Wolf forgot to give a kill. No I'm not telling you which. Yes I am enjoying this.

^ This.

[skip spence]

Not necessarily. I've seen innocents retract to save themselves before.

Yes but when when Nerwen retracted she was on 3 and Morsul on 5 with one person left to vote - you, who'd vote Nerwen. In other words, at that time it would take your vote plus another retraction from a third person to get her lynched. That could've happened, but wasn't very likely.

My point is, this risk to be lynched would seem more bearable for an innocent, because even if unfortune strikes, her team would still be in a good, if slightly worsened position. A wolf on the other hand would be desperate not to get lynched, because it would mean the End. Ergo, a wolf would imo have the strongest motivation to make that retraction move, without saying that an innocent couldn't do the same.

[wilwarin538]

Btw, if we were to lynch the cursed, would the narration indicate whether that cursed had indeed been turned, or would we be left guessing?


Like I already said, yes. If the Cursed dies before being turned you would see "Cursed" beside their name. If the Cursed dies after being turned you would see "Cursed-Wolf" beside their name.

[skip spence]

I might as well post this, a look I had this morning on Shasta's first 3 days:

Day 1

First three posts are IC banter

Post 53 is a list of sorts. Lottie is his only serious suspicion because she’s “posting a lot of fluff and not a lot of content, which doesn't remind me of an innocent incarnation of said Duchess.”

In Post 112 at which point Lottie has amassed a few votes and looks like getting lynched , he then changes his tone and now dislikes the votes on Lottie, “Partiiiiiially because it seems like we lynch her first a lot, and partiiiially because the reasoning on the bandwagon isn't superb”.

To this the Sally the wolf agrees. Shasta now finds Morsul the most suspect because he wants others to get rid of their retractions but at the same time keep but it turned out that Shasta just misread Morsul’s post.

Shasta eventually votes Greenie without an explanation (unless I missed it)

Day 2:

#340 is a long post of thoughts. Among other things he critiques Lottie for acting so sure of herself. Points out that Mira’s statement that she’s: “floundering for something to contribute” is suspect.

He also suspects Nerwen because of this statement of hers while she was giving Sally what actually was her second vote: “Now, I think that's the third vote on Sallymouse, which I guess makes it officially a bandwagon.”

He defends Sally from Legate’s accusations though:
Legate: “But this sounds a rather too over-the-top defensive thing and somehow, the defense sounds just fabricated. That didn't help you at least in my eyes, sally. But whatever...”

Shasta :"I disagree. I've been a frustrated innocent before (right, guys? *waves crossbow*) and honestly, Sally had just come back to two votes and a bucketload of suspicion. I'd probably be frustrated too".

Later on he states he’d likely vote Zil or Morsul, bickers a bit with Greenie then finally votes Morsul for “being opportunistic”.


Day 3:
First a short post where he agrees with others that Glirdan is suspicious and promises to look at Greenie because Glirdan will be scrutinized by others.
Then a few rather pointless short posts.

#494 is longer. Here Shasta critiques Morsul for his early votes( “it feels like he's established ‘vote early and be suspicious at all time’ as his own playstyle, but at the same time right now it feels like he's hiding behind it a bit”) and Brinn for being wishy-washy.
More bickering with Greenie, still with little weight behind the accusations. Shasta also questions why Nogrod calls winty an easy lynch: “Right, I'm going to take issue with people continuing to call winty an ‘easy lynch’”

#507 Qualifies his accusations against Greenie(who’s just voted Nogrod, rather surprisingly) :
"I do see it as a bit of a throwaway, honestly. I don't think anyone else so far has mentioned Nog (which worries me a bit, now that I think about it, considering that he's usually at the forefront of the discussion...) but your last comment looked like you're setting yourself up to look good if Glirdan is lynched and flips as a wolf."

I state my possible intention on voting Shasta:
“As it is, I'm leaning towards voting Shasta. He too has been voting very cleanly, never getting in the centre of the attention. Very, as it may seem, sneeky.”

Shasta responds: “It's a little odd to be voting someone for seeming too innocent. Just saying.”

He then votes Greenie. Interesting to note that Greenie died the following morning.


Don't know just what to make of this expect that I still find him rather suspicious.

[Loslote]

What happened in the night if the cursed was turned:
wolf: *stalks towards cursed* "Heya mate I'm here to kill you rawr!"
cursed: "Yikes!"
wolf: *bites*
cursed: *sprouts fur* "Omigod I didn't die!"
wolf: "Let's go kick some village butt yay!"

Epic. Win. :p

You know something? Mira played in Werewolf LXXII: Now There's the Truth of It!, in which when the Cursed was turned, all we were told in the narration was, "Nobody died". Mind you, Mira herself was dead by then.

But she was a dead wolf at the time...and probably more concerned with the fact that the wolves were dying off at an alarming rate, if she was even watching.

What does it have to do with anything?

Well, it was a fun game, and actually quite similar with the string of wolf-lynches. (four in a row, following a hunter wolf-kill. :rolleyes:)

Yes but when when Nerwen retracted she was on 3 and Morsul on 5 with one person left to vote - you, who'd vote Nerwen. In other words, at that time it would take your vote plus another retraction from a third person to get her lynched. That could've happened, but wasn't very likely.

No, because she xed with me. If I hadn't voted and Brinn did, Nerwen would have died. Or if I'd voted for Nerwen, which was still possible.

He then votes Greenie. Interesting to note that Greenie died the following morning.


A wolf probably wouldn't be that bold.

[skip spence]

No, because she xed with me. If I hadn't voted and Brinn did, Nerwen would have died. Or if I'd voted for Nerwen, which was still possible.

Ok fair enough. With the x-posting my argument sort of falls apart I guess.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

On Mira:

#9 is IC posting.

#12 is fluff.

#48 - thinks Fea's vote isn't suspicious, but winty's is.

wintywinty's vote is more suspicious. I do agree with whoever suggested it might be of a wolfish nature and xe was told to act newbieish to allay suspicion. Or it could be a newbie mistake. People do tend to follow Fea for no reason.

#287 is our dear Stick's first real contribution (<3).

Oooh not a ton for me to catch up on even though the Day's more than half over. *approves*



Yes dear, would you care to explain that one for me please?

I also really disliked Zil's vote for me. If he could explain that too, I'd appreciate it.



Dead on.

So enough about me. :rolleyes:

I tend to trust Lottie's shirriff reveal, since I see no reason not to. Her suspicion of Greenie makes me suspicious of her by default, but I'll have to go through and look a bit deeper at her posts.

So based on that information, I'll probably vote for Agan, Zil, or Greenie unless they manage to clear themselves in my eyes.

I'm also on the fence about Morsul and sally. Morsul's "vote of opportunity" seems mighty suspicious.

Said analysis of Greenie's posts might take a while since it's finals week and I reeeeally need to not get another D in seminar. Just sayin'.

Okay, what I'm getting out of this is that Mira suspects Agan and Zil because Agan suspected her and Zil voted for her, and Greenie because known innocent Lottie was suspicious of her. Was also suspicious of Morsul, which seems to be the only suspicion that had a reason.

#292 - TLDR; was only suspicious of Greenie because of Lottie, but isn't suspicious of her anymore.

#294 - Kind of jokingly defensive?

And how many of the times you've suspected me have I actually been evil?

#302 - Here's that "floundering" comment I thought was suspicious. Also mentions her suspicion of Aganzir.

That was really me floundering for something to contribute than anything else. And no, I got the Morsul thing, and so far you suspicion is really the only reason I'm considering voting for you. I could look for more basis if you'd like. :p

#365 - Yes, dear. What about that is interesting to you? It was Day 1. That was the first post I had made that wasn't straight up banter and didn't particularly want to be accused of being evil for not participating.

In an attempt to not miss deadline for the second day in a row (which is unfortunately extremely likely considering how much studying I still have to do. Procrastination = bad), ima go ahead and vote now.

++wintywinty

There's something suspicious about the way he's been posting. It could be because he's a newbie, but I'm going to go with the idea that there's wolfish coaching going on. Might change that if The Mythology of Crime and Criminal Justice doesn't suck my life completely away before DL.

Wait, what? So you consider your suspicion of Agan "just banter"? And much as I'm glad to see someone not dismissing winty as "newbie", I don't think anyone else was very suspicious of him at this point, so this kind of seems like a throwaway.

#603 - Mentions her participation won't be great. However, mentions she thinks Morsul looks suspicious for talking so much for the first time all game (this after I said the same thing in #573 :p).

#605 - Mentions she's a girl.

#677 - Thinks Morsul's self-vote is "the stupidest thing ever" and finds it suspicious.

#713 - More on Morsul's self-vote.

So this pretty much boils down to I have no idea what to think. I'm leaning toward innocent and pigheaded, but tempted to vote him for sheer stupidity at the risk of being hypocritical.

#751 - Defends herself against Legate:

I did voice suspicion against him before that, though. Like, two days ago. I'm just actually doing something about it now.

++Morsul

For reasons previously stated and since he's the only one who's really jumped out at me. This might change if I get the chance to go over some things more closely, but wanted to make sure I didn't miss deadline again.

This bothers me a little bit. Yes, she did, but only once, in passing (see #287). So for her to bring that up as a reason for jumping on Morsul two days later, even if she's been busy with RL... seems kind of forced.

#798 - Of the three options, my money is on ranger save. I feel like the narration would say something more interesting than nothing if the cursed had been turned. It's also unlikely the last wolf forgot to send in a kill. At this point it's too important to not remember to do. Thus, ranger save.

This was the quote that prompted this analysis in the first place. It seems awfully quick to dismiss the fact of a Cursed change altogether, and that really bothers me.

#815 - No, I said it might mean a Ranger save and that's what I was personally leaning toward. Also, when I die that early on in games I tend not to follow what happens. So sorry, dear, that's a very shaky assumption you've made.

No you didn't, Mira. You said... well, just look up.



Conclusion - I'd really like to see more from Mira, given her RL circumstances, but what she has said looks furry to me.

[wilwarin538]

Note: could everyone please un-highlight votes when you quote them, it confuses me. Thanks. :D <3

[Thinlómien]

I'm here and rather disappointed - both at yesterDay's lynch and at our Moddess' behaviour. :p

I have to go to the sauna with family now but I'll be back soon to write stuff. I promise to think in the sauna! :D

[wilwarin538]

and at our Moddess' behaviour. :p

Ahaha. Come on, :p. The village wipped out almost all my baddies; a Cobbler and 3 wolves in 4 Days! I think it's about time this game was a little less easy for you guys! ;)

[Aganzir]

I think it's about time this game was a little less easy for you guys! ;)
Was that a slip? :p

In other words, I'm here.

edit: No obviously it wasn't... I read the sentence properly right when I hit the Submit button, somehow I had thought wilwa talked about the baddie team.

[Thinlómien]

Well, as for my thoughts. It's pretty useless to speculate who could be a cursed who was turned last Night, because the same people are the ones who'd be innocent if there was a ranger save last Night... And as for no-kill, that would most likely have been Mira or Winty, but there have been wolves in ww history who have intentionally not submitted a kill as well as active people who have missed sending a kill... So, as much as I hate to say it, there really are no ways of making assumptions based on last Night's events as Wilwa's refusing to tell stuff... (Unless you want to go really meta and conclude since our Moddess seems to be rooting for the baddies, it's more likely she's teasing us since last Night was good for village ie either wolf missed the kill or there was a ranger save. But that doesn't help us much plus it's pretty optimistic and maybe a little too meta, but I'm just thinking aloud.)

What else? Well I have to say I'm quite clueless? I'm tempted to ignore Mira and Winty until they start talking substantially more because they have posted so little it's hard to read them. (Although that might not be smart.)

I'm not exactly convinced of Nerwen's defenses toDay, there was something she said which made me raise my eyebrows, but I can't remember what it was and I'd prefer to reread only once I don't have a cosmetic mask on my face ie when I can't use glasses. :D Aganzir is also starting to worry me, but this will probably annoy her because I don't have any rational reasons.

I still think Skip is a likely seer dream so I'm giving him a pass because of that still for a while at least. Besides he doesn't seem to evil anyway. I'm also inclined to think Brinn and Shasta innocent. This leaves Legate, of whom I'm very unsure, but he seems slightly more innocent than guilty.

If there's sombody I didn't mention, they're totally slipping under my radar.

PS. Wilwa, we're just too good for you and your puppies. ;)

[Aganzir]

Isn't it obvious? Mira's saying the lack of information probably means a Ranger save, but she's recently played in a game where the same thing meant the Cursed had been found. So it seems an odd assumption to make.
Ahh okay, I got it. It was mostly that "Mira was dead by then" part that confused me.

So... thanks for the answers, although you mostly just commented on my case and only answered a few of the questions I asked you.

The fact that I commented on wintywinty's random vote on Day One.
Commenting is fine by itself. But your comment looked sinister. Yes I know there wasn't much to talk about yet and we had to start from somewhere, but there was just something about the comment, the way it was phrased or something. I don't think you can answer to it any better, but it's still creepy.

What does your comment about wolf tactics tending to run in cycles actually mean and could you give some examples?

Since I only suspected him, rather than knowing his role, I also tried to be fair by bringing up points in his favour as well as those against him.
That's alright. But when it has happened with every wolf we've lynched, it makes one wonder.

You said you wouldn't ignore the Lottie-voters (Lommy, Green & Legate) because the circumstances of the bandwagon were odd. Why were they odd?

Yes. That was before I'd analysed him and seemed a possibility at that point.
Maybe I'm just a more single-minded player, but when the seer is killed by the wolves, my first thought isn't usually that they wanted to frame somebody.

There's a question of whether Sally honestly believed she had a chance of changing the outcome at that point (right on DL).
What does this comment have to do with anything? I just didn't get what you were trying to say.

Brinn's comment was out of context, in that she makes no mention of the fact that
It was a single comment. You made a big number of it. I personally don't think she was distorting what you said, in the sense that it represented your tone towards Glirdan quite well. Take it or leave it, you looked somewhat wishy-washy when it came to lynching him. That's the impression I got and I wasn't the only one.

Yes, Greenie said he looked innocent, but she said that about a lot of people– we can't know for sure.
So when the seer says somebody looks maybe the most innocent of us all, it means nothing?

When I came I just skimmed through Nerwen's answers and was like alright she seems to be making sense... But it quite looks like she had tried to avoid certain questions. Which doesn't make me feel any better about her.

I agree with Legate the remaining gifteds could maybe start to consider revealing... There are 10 of us now and if they revealed, it would leave only 7 (or 6, if the ranger made a succesful save and was told of it) unknown people. Yes it would make finding the cursed easier for the wolf (unless she already did it), but at the same time it would narrow the field of potential wolves.

if the Cursing did happen toNight, I would be most worried about Lommy then
Me too, but we can never be certain... There are simply too many ways for the wolf to act. Thus far they've killed those that looked the most innocent but we have no way of knowing how long that pattern will continue.

Ergo, a wolf would imo have the strongest motivation to make that retraction move, without saying that an innocent couldn't do the same.
If you must choose between yourself and an unknown and you know you're innocent, it's better for you to kill the unknown (expecially now that the seer is already dead). So I don't think Nerwen's retraction to improve her own chances of survival tells us anything about her role.

I like Shasta's analysis of Mira.. If Nerwen is not a wolf, Mira would probably be my second bet.

Aganzir is also starting to worry me, but this will probably annoy her because I don't have any rational reasons.
No it would annoy me if you did have reasons because they are bound to be bad. :p

[skip spence]

If you must choose between yourself and an unknown and you know you're innocent, it's better for you to kill the unknown (expecially now that the seer is already dead). So I don't think Nerwen's retraction to improve her own chances of survival tells us anything about her role.

I think you too missed my point but enough of that. You however have yet to explain to me why dumping the retractables would be good for the innocent team but bad for the wolves, as you stated earlier.

[Thinlómien]

Okay, what disturbs me about Nerwen toDay
- how she seems to understand and sort of belittle the wave of suspicion against her as if it was somehow deserved: if I was her and was innocent, I would definitely think the whole case ridiculous and react much more strongly (I'm not cliaming Nerwen should get furious or something but some sort of "you're wrong" or "there's something fishy in that bandwagon" is what I'd have expected of anyone innocent)
- the amount of underlinings and italics in her defense posts gives a rather forced or feigned manner to it all

Now, about yesterDay: so there were three lynch-candidates. Of those, I happen to know that the only one who could have been a wolf is Skip. So Wolf 4 I think, more likely to be among the bandwagon-hoppers than those who really pushed to lynch Morsul or me. (Legate? Mira? Skip himself? Lommy?)...what? ...why? I don't get this point at all.

Where did that 1/5 come from? If we lynched the unicorn today, there would be a 1/11 chance that Greenie comes back, 2/11 for Lottie to be happy and 3/11 that no one is resurrected.My bad, I thought wolves are not counted as possibilities for a resurrection...

And the ranger can't protect herself.No, but the rules still say so so that's why I made the mistake.

[Aganzir]

I think you too missed my point but enough of that. You however have yet to explain to me why dumping the retractables would be good for the innocent team but bad for the wolves, as you stated earlier.
Garrr I've been explaining it almost every day! :p

I'm not urging anybody to dump their retraction (like I did). But especially if there are more wolves (who can communicate at night), they can use their retractions to lynch somebody they want (eg instead of one of them), which in turn can help them to win. Basically they can plan strategies that depend on the retractions. Innocents can't do the same because we don't have the necessary knowledge (ie it's not almost all the same to us who gets lynched) nor the means of communication (apart from the Sheriffs) which means the retractions are not as useful to us as they can be to the wolves.

Speaking of which... Nerwen and I don't have ours left, everybody else has.

[Nerwen]

Agan–

I have answered every point of yours that I could see. If there were other points I didn't deliberately ignore them, I just didn't recognise them as points.

You said you wouldn't ignore the Lottie-voters (Lommy, Green & Legate) because the circumstances of the bandwagon were odd. Why were they odd?

I can't even remember what I meant at the time– I think that it seemed to come out of nowhere. I never could understand why Lottie was suspicious.

Commenting is fine by itself. But your comment looked sinister. Yes I know there wasn't much to talk about yet and we had to start from somewhere, but there was just something about the comment, the way it was phrased or something. I don't think you can answer to it any better, but it's still creepy.

You see? There's nothing in it and you know it. You have obsessed about a completely natural, sensible and, frankly, obvious comment I made early in the game beyond all reason. Get over it.

Do you know who else pursued another player relentlessly for saying something like, "we should scrutinize winty's vote?" That's right. Nogwolf. After innocent Zil.

Maybe I'm just a more single-minded player, but when the seer is killed by the wolves, my first thought isn't usually that they wanted to frame somebody.

It wasn't my first thought. I was listing all possible reasons why wolves might kill someone. Again, get over it.

What does your comment about wolf tactics tending to run in cycles actually mean and could you give some examples?

I thought it was self-explanatory. But okay, take wolf-on-wolf suspicions, then. Why is this important, anyway?

All your points are like this, Agan. They're taking extremely minor things I've said and blowing them out of all proportion. There's so many that anyone skimming your posts probably thinks you've made an awesome watertight case against me.

And yes, I'm angry now. I'm feeling extremely frustrated with this situation.
What annoys me is that I have played an excellent game in terms of wolf-spotting, and my reward is having to defend every single trivial, casual remark I've made in the entire game. Looking for wolf-slips is one thing, but the amount of quibbling you're doing is through the roof.

I'm actually only defending myself for the benefit of other players. You, I'm sure, will never back down or admit you might have been wrong, no matter what I say.

EDIT:X'd with Lommy and Agan.

[wilwarin538]

1 Unicorn: when they die I will put the names of all of the dead in a hat, including the Unicorn’s name. If the name I pick out is of an innocent (or Cobbler) they will come back to life, if it’s a Wolf than no one comes back. Everyone comes back as an Ordo (except Cobbler still Cobbler, and Shirriff still Shirriff if their partner is still alive).

Just so it's there for everyone to understand. :)

[Thinlómien]

More underlinings and italics. :D

But Nerwen, I have to say I know how you feel. She always does that to me and it can really drive you crazy. But, I also think you should know Agan is like that: painfully nit-picky* and you should also know we others don't blindly follow her because we know we have said a dozen small stupid things ourselves along the game (or I would at least aaume I have although can't recall anything).

*and just for her defense: she seems to find that useful and often it is. :)

But anyway it's kind of disturbing watch you two back-and-forth since you are my top suspects. Quite eerie, because I can't really tell which one of you is evil (if either... :rolleyes: )...


edit: xed with Alirin

[Nerwen]

Okay, what disturbs me about Nerwen toDay
- how she seems to understand and sort of belittle the wave of suspicion against her as if it was somehow deserved: if I was her and was innocent, I would definitely think the whole case ridiculous and react much more strongly (I'm not cliaming Nerwen should get furious or something but some sort of "you're wrong" or "there's something fishy in that bandwagon" is what I'd have expected of anyone innocent)
- the amount of underlinings and italics in her defense posts gives a rather forced or feigned manner to it all

Well, I'm angry now, if that makes you feel better– see my last post. I just don't lose my cool easily– you should know that by now. But I'm in the process of losing it at the moment, let me tell you.

Besides, Lommy, if I'd been reacting more strongly from the first, are you sure you wouldn't now be saying, "Ooo! Defensive! Clearly a cornered wolf!"


Originally Posted by Nerwen
Now, about yesterDay: so there were three lynch-candidates. Of those, I happen to know that the only one who could have been a wolf is Skip. So Wolf 4 I think, more likely to be among the bandwagon-hoppers than those who really pushed to lynch Morsul or me. (Legate? Mira? Skip himself? Lommy?)
...what? ...why? I don't get this point at all.

I mean the wolf, whoever it is, wouldn't have needed to push very hard to get an innocent lynched. Though that isn't a sure guide– other things do come into it, like individual temperament.

EDIT:X'd with Lommy and our moddess.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Honestly, I may be biased (considering Nerwen and I are royal consorts :p) but the way she's defending herself definitely says "frustrated innocent" to me.

However, I did say the same thing about Sally... bah.

I'm also reconsidering whether or not Agan was actually dreamed.

Right now I think I'd like to vote Mira, but she hasn't said anything in response to my analysis yet.

[Aganzir]

Do you know who else pursued another player relentlessly for saying something like, "we should scrutinize winty's vote?" That's right. Nogwolf. After innocent Zil.
It might just be a language issue. :p
And you can compare me to Nogwolf all you want, but this is how I play. And I know I can be horrible. And if you really are innocent, I'm sorry.

I thought it was self-explanatory. But okay, take wolf-on-wolf suspicions, then. Why is this important, anyway?
I don't because I think there are certain tactics that remain always pretty much the same... And it's important because wolves have been caught before for saying things that look self-explanatory but aren't. I might note that you have been caught that way before.

And yes, I'm angry now. I'm feeling extremely frustrated with this situation.
What annoys me is that I have played an excellent game in terms of wolf-spotting, and my reward is having to defend every single trivial, casual remark I've made in the entire game. Looking for wolf-slips is one thing, but the amount of quibbling you're doing is through the roof.
Nerwen, seriously - when it's you we're talking about, it doesn't matter how many wolves you have spotted. You can still be one yourself.
As I said, you'll have my sincere apologies after the game if you're innocent. I never tried to annoy you on purpose. However at the moment I'm just rather convinced you're a wolf and I won't have peace until I know for sure so no, I'm not going to back away now.

[Nerwen]

As I said, you'll have my sincere apologies after the game if you're innocent. I never tried to annoy you on purpose. However at the moment I'm just rather convinced you're a wolf and I won't have peace until I know for sure so no, I'm not going to back away now.

Well, you're wrong. That's all I can say.

[Aganzir]

Honestly, I may be biased (considering Nerwen and I are royal consorts :p) but the way she's defending herself definitely says "frustrated innocent" to me.

However, I did say the same thing about Sally... bah.
I agree, on both things... But wolves can get annoyed too, I recall a game where they let one live because she appeared genuinely upset about something.

I'm also reconsidering whether or not Agan was actually dreamed.
And what did you think before?
I don't think anyone's really claimed I was dreamed, yeah it's a possibility but I'm not even myself convinced Greenie did it.

Right now I think I'd like to vote Mira, but she hasn't said anything in response to my analysis yet.
I could do that too... But if both Nerwen and I live I'm going to be torn about her tomorrow too so I don't know.

Well, you're wrong. That's all I can say.
I'm rather stubborn and take the risk of being wrong than change my mind and end up being wrong.

[Thinlómien]

I'm also reconsidering whether or not Agan was actually dreamed.Given the amount of Greenie's flip-flopping, she most probably wasn't.

Well, I'm angry now, if that makes you feel better– see my last post. I just don't lose my cool easily– you should know that by now. But I'm in the process of losing it at the moment, let me tell you.

Besides, Lommy, if I'd been reacting more strongly from the first, are you sure you wouldn't now be saying, "Ooo! Defensive! Clearly a cornered wolf!" Well, point taken, I would probably have said that. But I would have expected something like "where did that bandwagon come up from? :rolleyes:" or some similar sarcastic slightly accusing comment, that would've fitted you (better than losing your nerve or something), and the lack of it just caught my eye.

And no, seeing you angry doesn't definitely make me feel better, but worse, because this is supposed to be a fun game and I don't enjoy seeing anyone I like (regardless how much I suspect or don't suspect them in the current game) feeling bad.

I mean the wolf, whoever it is, wouldn't have needed to push very hard to get an innocent lynched. Though that isn't a sure guide– other things do come into it, like individual temperament.Ah okay, now I see, thanks for clarification. But I think it's really more about individual temperament and time issues - unless the wolf felt s/he was in danger especially. (So if we really want to look at somebody based on this point, it would be those who were under some suspicion and pushing for some lynch and maybe those who weren't under any suspicion and not pushing for any lynch.)


edit: xed with Aganx2 and Nerwie

[Nerwen]

I don't because I think there are certain tactics that remain always pretty much the same...

But wasn't this originally over the question of how newbie wolves were likely to act? That's gone through changes, Agan. Lately it's been the thing for their packmates to leave them in the dark on purpose, so they don't seem to know too much– but now everyone expects that.

EDIT:X'd since last post.

[Thinlómien]

People in order from the most suspicious-looking to the least suspicious-looking (excluding myself and Lottie)

Nerwen
Aganzir
Mira
Winty
Legate
Shasta
Brinn
Skip

I'd prefer to vote one of the first two, but then again, I feel like I also have lots of reasons not to vote them (both of their few last posts look unwolvish).

I guess I could be talked into voting Mira or Winty, but I would feel really useless if we lynched one of them and they turned out to be innocent. It would feel more of a waste of lynch than lynching innocent Agan or Nerwen, because it's such a shot in the dark. Could you puppies talk a bit more, please?

Gah, this will be the most difficult Day vote-wise in this game this far. The previous Days felt much easier. Do you others have any ideas who you're going to vote (except that Agan is going to vote Nerwen :rolleyes: )?

[Aganzir]

But wasn't this originally over the question of how newbie wolves were likely to act? That's gone through changes, Agan. Lately it's been the thing for their packmates to leave them in the dark on purpose, so they don't seem to know too much– but now everyone expects that.
What I remember is that wolves tend to tell the cub some stuff but encourage them to ask the same questions and make the same mistakes in the thread too and look new and confused in every way... So that they know actually more and have a better grasp of things than they seem to. If there's been a trend of not telling newbie wolves anything, I'm not aware of it. In which case your comment makes more sense, I suppose. But in my opinion some strategies are just ever more popular than others, so saying that wolf tactics tend to run in cycles sounded odd to me.

[Aganzir]

I'd rather vote for Nerwen just to be on the safe side but I could vote for Mira too because Shasta did have good points against her... Plus of course I'd like it if my day 1 main suspect turned out a wolf, I wouldn't feel so useless. :p

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Okay, I am around, I have been reading but then wasn't around as I was feeling slightly unwell for a while, but I think it should be better now. Anyway, however, I think I will just prefer to vote soon and leave after that. I think I might just as well vote for some of my earlier suspects. I don't really see very much into Agan and Nerwen's dispute, as it starts to be hazy to me and since I am basically unable to follow it, it's all back and forth and not really giving me any contributive evidence for Nerwen or Agan's guilt or innocence. It has reached the stage where it has became totally untransparent.

And after re-reading some things, I don't really think I have that much suspicion for Nerwen based on what she said earlier or stuff like that. She of all people is somebody who could have such a nice voting record as she has even if she were a Wolf, but that is just a thing meaning that she does not need to be innocent because of that, so it's a neutral statement, but not making her guilty. I think the main thing is just something like with Agan, that basically I cannot say when she's a Wolf - but that's about it or a sheer paranoia. Shasta on the other hand has rather bad voting list, which is still the same thing as I said yesterDay. Another option might be Mira, however, I am not so keen on voting her right now given her previous long absence.

That'll be it in short. I will probably go through my thoughts on everybody once again and then probably vote soon.

EDIT: x-ed with Nerwen, Lommy and Agans

[Mirandir]

Right now I think I'd like to vote Mira, but she hasn't said anything in response to my analysis yet.

Sorry about that, dear. Just had a nice romp through downtown Boston rush hour traffic to just barely make my bus. Responses coming.

[Aganzir]

I'd like to go to sleep so I'm just going to vote now...

++Nerwen

I suspect her the most.

But regardless of your role, or mine, I'm sorry to have upset you. :(

Oh and if somebody doesn't have anything to do (gah why did I remember this only now when I was thinking of it right before coming online?) they might go and see if they can draw any conclusions from Lommy's posts about Glirdy & sally's interactions with us and my post about Nog's...

[Nerwen]

Well, point taken, I would probably have said that. But I would have expected something like "where did that bandwagon come up from? :rolleyes:" or some similar sarcastic slightly accusing comment, that would've fitted you (better than losing your nerve or something), and the lack of it just caught my eye.

And no, seeing you angry doesn't definitely make me feel better, but worse, because this is supposed to be a fun game and I don't enjoy seeing anyone I like (regardless how much I suspect or don't suspect them in the current game) feeling bad.

Oh, I'm all right now. I just had to get that off my chest. It's just that the sheer futility of arguing with Aganzir when she's already made up her mind was getting to me.:rolleyes:

Besides, I'd rather have been spending this time looking for the fourth wolf. We've done so well– I don't want this to be one of those games where the village triumphs in the early days, then gets lazy and lynches people semi-randomly "because we can afford to"... and in the end the wolves win.

And– apart from our known innocent, the make-up of the village is: several elite players, any of whom could pull off a lone-wolf victory, two complete newbies who are hard to read for that reason, and Mira who just pops up and says "hi guys" at random intervals. Add to that the fact that we don't know how many wolves we have... yeah, we could still manage to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. I've seen it before.

EDIT:X'd since my last post.

[Thinlómien]

Oh and if somebody doesn't have anything to do (gah why did I remember this only now when I was thinking of it right before coming online?) they might go and see if they can draw any conclusions from Lommy's posts about Glirdy & sally's interactions with us and my post about Nog's...Yes and I was thinking of that when I saw your post but forgot about it... :rolleyes: Well, if I don't start to feel sleepy soon, I could do it...

edit: xed with Nerrr

[Brinniel]

I'm still suspicious of Nerwen. The way she analysed Glirdan and Nog on Days 3 and 4 just cry out wolfish to me. I don't feel quite as forceful about it toDay, but I still can't shake off the nagging feeling that she is a wolf. And while I'd feel bad if she really were innocent, if we lynched Nerwen, at least I wouldn't have to keep worrying about her.

My decision to vote Nerwen isn't set in stone, and I will have a quick look at others. But today it's more important I get going on my schoolwork so I don't have much time for analysing, and at this very moment Nerwen is my best choice for lynching.

I will be around probably until deadline, but it'll be in and out from breaks working on my project, so don't expect heavy substance from me.

EDIT: X-ed with a few posts above

[Thinlómien]

And– apart from our known innocent, the make-up of the village is: several elite players, any of whom could pull off a lone-wolf victory, two complete newbies who are hard to read for that reason, and Mira who just pops up and says "hi guys" at random intervals. Add to that the fact that we don't know how many wolves we have... yeah, we could still manage to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. I've seen it before.Agreed, that's what I've been fearing too. I thought it was maybe a bit like that in the much quoted Prancing Pony game where I was the seer and nailed two of the three original wolves but it still wasn't enough for the village to win... and in many more games. *sigh*

Okay, good, now you gave me the resolve to check Agan&my wolf analyses combined. :D


edit: xed with Brinnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnn

[Nerwen]

What I remember is that wolves tend to tell the cub some stuff but encourage them to ask the same questions and make the same mistakes in the thread too and look new and confused in every way... So that they know actually more and have a better grasp of things than they seem to. If there's been a trend of not telling newbie wolves anything, I'm not aware of it.

Well, not of telling them nothing, but of only letting them know the bare minimum of do's and don'ts, and leaving them genuinely vague about the rules.

But regardless of your role, or mine, I'm sorry to have upset you. :(

No, that's okay. I overreacted. It's just a game after all. I just haven't been getting much sleep lately, for various reasons.

EDIT:X'd since last post.

[Mirandir]

Okay, what I'm getting out of this is that Mira suspects Agan and Zil because Agan suspected her and Zil voted for her, and Greenie because known innocent Lottie was suspicious of her. Was also suspicious of Morsul, which seems to be the only suspicion that had a reason.

Correct. Agan and Zil were revenge picks. I always get testy when suspected, as anyone who's played with me in the past knows. Generally don't act on said testiness though, hence not voting for either of them.

#294 - Kind of jokingly defensive?

More amused than anything else. In all the games I've played I've been a wolf twice and one of those times I had to drop out because of computer issues. The other time Nienna hunted me the Night we killed her.

#302 - Here's that "floundering" comment I thought was suspicious. Also mentions her suspicion of Aganzir.

I'm suspicious when I don't explain things and I'm suspicious when I do. Can't win with you, can I? :rolleyes:

#365 - Wait, what? So you consider your suspicion of Agan "just banter"? And much as I'm glad to see someone not dismissing winty as "newbie", I don't think anyone else was very suspicious of him at this point, so this kind of seems like a throwaway.

Noo no you misunderstand. That was in response to my Day 1 winty vote. Prior to that vote post all I had done was banter. My suspicion of Agan came later on. Also, still can't win with you. Get accused of bandwaggoning if other people suspect someone before I mention them, but if suspicious of someone other people aren't it's a throwaway. Do you see a logic flaw here?

#603 - Mentions her participation won't be great. However, mentions she thinks Morsul looks suspicious for talking so much for the first time all game (this after I said the same thing in #573 :p).

Definitely did not see you said that. My bad.


#751 - Defends herself against Legate:
This bothers me a little bit. Yes, she did, but only once, in passing (see #287). So for her to bring that up as a reason for jumping on Morsul two days later, even if she's been busy with RL... seems kind of forced.

But less forced than picking someone arbitrarily to vote for that I had no reasoning against, no?

[quote]#798 - This was the quote that prompted this analysis in the first place. It seems awfully quick to dismiss the fact of a Cursed change altogether, and that really bothers me.[quote]

I didn't dismiss it (intentionally, at least though I can see where you would get that impression), I just think a Ranger save is more likely. The entire game has gone by without the Ranger successfully saving someone; it was bound to happen eventually. However, the likelihood of the cursed being turned is just as likely.

Did I miss anything?

[skip spence]

All your points are like this, Agan. They're taking extremely minor things I've said and blowing them out of all proportion. There's so many that anyone skimming your posts probably thinks you've made an awesome watertight case against me.

Ladies, ladies... :)

Btw, this losing her temper-scheme Nerwen is up to just screams cornered wolf. (irony indended ;))

Garrr I've been explaining it almost every day!
Ah yes you have, well once at least, I remember now. It's just that I didn't really buy it. Although the wolves may PM each other any coordinated retraction-move could easily draw heavy suspicion their way and would be too risky, unless at the very end of a game. But you could be right, this is my first game and I can't see all ends admittedly.

Thing is, what made me react at first was how you on Day one made it seem like dumping the retractable is a good demonstration of ones honest intentions and succinctly got rid of yours. Sally quickly followed your lead. It almost seems like you are constructing some kind of defence or divergence, to take suspicion away from you and upon the people with the option to retract intact.

[Brinniel]

Just had a nice romp through downtown Boston rush hour traffic to just barely make my bus.
More like Red Sox hour traffic. I was having a nice little half-nap on the train, and then we arrive at Kenmore and a horde of Red Sox fans come stomping in until the train is jam packed, totally invading my space bubble. I was not pleased. Tomorrow will be even more fun (Boston Marathon). :rolleyes:

edit: xed with Brinnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnn
So many N's. Did you fall asleep on the keyboard? :p

(Sorry, I really should get back on topic...more from me in little bit.)

[Brinniel]

Btw, this losing her temper-scheme Nerwen is up to just screams cornered wolf.
Maybe. But I've seen players act like this before and turn up innocent. It can go either way. And I can understand why some may think Nerwen looks like a frustrated innocent, and though it can be tempting, I won't back down my suspicion of her just because of that. Because while she could very well be one, it could also be an act. I know from prior experience that playing the frustrated innocent act can be successful (to even the point of victory).

So basically, I'm saying we should simply disregard player emotions when it comes to figuring out roles. It could be real, it could be fake...it could be completely genuine and still go either way.

[skip spence]

Got to go to bed now. Have had a very hard time deciding and frankly, what tipped the scales was probably Nerwen's little rant there. It would just be too brilliant if she was a wolf and made that defence, and I can't help wanting to find out.

++Nerwen

[Thinlómien]

First off, links.

My analyses of interactions with Sally (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=627528&postcount=612)and Glirdy (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=627538&postcount=619). My conclusions (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=627544&postcount=624).

Agan's analysis (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=627766&postcount=743)of interactions with Nogrod. Her conclusions (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=627940&postcount=813).

I'm counting Agan as a likely fellow of Nogrod (they were mostly nice to each other, some suspicion here and there and she voted him on Day4 making quite a 180 degree turn which would've been a convenient before-hand planned wolf-on-wolf), making Skip an unlikely Nog-fellow (the chances of Wolfgrod telling his newbie fellow to vote him are just too high to be ignored) and excluding myself of the list. I'll give people + and - as for likely or unlikely fellowness and 0s for neutrality.

Nerwen
0 Sally
0 Glirdy
+ Nog

Winty
0 Sally
- Glirdy
0 Nog

Mira
0 Sally
0 Glirdy
0 Nog

Agan
0 Sally
+ Glirdy
+ Nog

Shasta
- Sally
+ Glirdy
- Nog

Legate
0 Sally
+ Glirdy
0 Nog

Skip
+ Sally
0 Glirdy
- Nog

Brinn
+ Sally
0 Glirdy
- Nog

So, wolf points

2
Agan

1
Nerwen
Legate

0
Mira
Skip
Brinn

-1
Winty
Shasta

Now, I would be extremely cautious in trusting this kind of list because it's an articifial classification based on various articifial classifications based on subjective conclusions based on subjective phrasings of events.

The only conclusions that I dare concretely make is that since Winty seemed unlikely fellow with Glirdy and Shasta seemed unlikely fellow with Sally and Nog (but likely with Glirdy) I may feel a bit better about them. But there's really not much making difference between those who have 0, 1 or 2 wolf points, although I have to say I'm quite surprised to see Agan have the most points alone.


edit: xed with skips and Brinns

[Formendacil]

Dear WWers:

I am not playing. I do not know the first thing about this game, except Wilwa is modding, and she's a dear.

I do, however, have a message to pass on from on Mirandir, whose bus-internet is super-terrible.

I quote:

I'm trying to play WW but the internet on the bus is shoddy and decided it didn't want to let me view pages on the downs in a timely manner

I was going to go through Lommy's posts regarding Glirdan and Sally's interactions as per Agan's request but currently find myself unable.

Could you just post something in the game thread to that effect for me please? I was just there so it looks mighty suspicious that I disappeared.

Oh, stick something in there about how I'll do it when i get home in ish 2 hours, definitely within 3. Dinner might happen in there

Yours respectfully,

Formendacil

[Thinlómien]

If the options were Nerwen and Agan, I would have hard time deciding.

But if the option for a Nerwen-lynch is lynching Shasta or Skip, or even Mira, I will really have to vote Nerwen.

Nerwen, if you're innocent, I vote you and you get lynched, you may comfort yourself with the thought that I will go after Agan next (provided that I survive the Night).

PS. I think that Nerwen's frustration is genuine, but it doesn't tell us anything about her role (sadly).


edit: xed with Form *gasp*

[wilwarin538]

Wilwa is modding, and she's a dear.

♥

Now, I would be extremely cautious in trusting this kind of list because it's an articifial classification based on various articifial classifications based on subjective conclusions based on subjective phrasings of events.

This is my new favourite quote.

[skip spence]

Actually, I've changed my mind.

That vote on Nerwen was rather frivolous actually, not that it would be my first. The person I really think is the likeliest wolf at this point is actually Aganzir, come to think of it. This is based on voting behaviour, general attitude towards people and the contrived dumping the retraction-argument. I'm using mine now:

--Nerwen
++Agan

[Thinlómien]

But if the option for a Nerwen-lynch is lynching Shasta or Skip, or even Mira, I will really have to vote Nerwen.In case it was not clear, why I'm mentioning these three is because as far as I see they are the people who have been suspected (apart from Nerwen) toDay.

This is my new favourite quote.Thanks. :D I was tempted to make the sentence even more comlicated but I thought that illustrated the point well enough and was still in the limits of understandable...


edit: xed with Skip

[Thinlómien]

Wow that was pretty drastic... now I really wonder... (not about Skip though!)

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Well. Boo. Mira responded to most of my points, but just acknowledged a few, too, which makes me ponder. I think I'm going to not vote quite yet and see if she comes back.

If the votes are coming down to Nerwen and Agan, though, that means I've got some re-reading to do... :rolleyes:

[Thinlómien]

Nerwen 2 votes, Aganzir 1? Whichever I vote, I will feel like an idiot if she turns out innocent... :rolleyes:

Currently leaning on Aganzir though, not because she seems any more guilty but because she has less votes atm so it'd be more balanced (and more interesting toMorrow in case the game continues).

On the other hand, we can take for granted that Nerwen is going to vote Agan so it's kind of 2-2.

Hmm...

[Loslote]

And what did you think before?
I don't think anyone's really claimed I was dreamed, yeah it's a possibility but I'm not even myself convinced Greenie did it.

I'm also reconsidering whether or not Agan was actually dreamed.

It doesn't matter who was innocent-dreamed anymore. They could have been Cursed anyway, and thus would no longer be innocent.

Gah, this will be the most difficult Day vote-wise in this game this far. The previous Days felt much easier. Do you others have any ideas who you're going to vote (except that Agan is going to vote Nerwen :rolleyes: )?

Heh. List? :p

Would vote:
Legate (he's acting differently toDay than in the past few Days. Maybe because he's sick; maybe because he was Cursed - and he'd definitely fit the profile of past kills.)
Mira (has been suspicious and waaaay under the radar.)

Might vote:
WW (I have no read on him, but if there's a good case made against him...idk)
Nerwen (her recent actions look furry.)
Skip (I can't read him, either, but he does look a bit too capable.)

Would not vote:
Brinn (I don't think she's guilty.)
Agan (I'm not sure about her exactly, but I don't get furry vibes from her.)
Shasta (I have never thought him suspicious and I don't think he was Turned.)

To conclude, I want to lynch Legate, would be happy to lynch Mira, and would not be mad if WW, Nerwen, or Skip were lynched.

EDIT: xed since Formy

[Thinlómien]

Lottie, why are you so sure the cursed was turned last Night?

++Aganzir

I'm sorry darling, but you know I hate you to fool me as a wolf. Are you a wolf, then? Not sure, but your horrible track record when it comes to lynching wolves isn't exactly convincing. And I do get creepy vibes from you.

I'm especially sorry if Nerwen is the last wolf. But if it comforts you, if you're lynched and innocent, you can take my word that I won't fail to lynch Nerwen on the third time.

That being said, I leave this village in your hands, friends. I don't really have a preference over which one we lynch, Agan or Nerwen, I'll be probably after the other one toMorrow (if there is a toMorrow which I can take part to). If someone else dies, though, I'll be quite unhappy.

I trust you to make the right choice (whatever it is)... Good night!

[Nerwen]

If I go down toDay, I have a request to the village: don't just let it slide. People who voted me will say, "oh, but she looked so evil"– but watch that. I'm pretty sure I haven't, objectively, done anything suspicious. It seems one of those cases where people repeat something until everyone believes it.

[Loslote]

Lottie, why are you so sure the cursed was turned last Night?

Because that's the option that makes the most sense to me. The wolves/wolf have/had probably been trying to find the cursed, and so it makes sense that they did.

And, following up on the Legate theory, the people Night killed in order were:

Boro (not suspected at all and probably a Shirriff [in the wolves' minds at the time])
Izzy (not suspected at all, and thus would be a good new packmate)
Greenie (suspected, but gifted)
Nienna (not suspected at all, and thus would be a good packmate)

So, if we add
Legate (not suspected at all, and thus would be a good packmate)

We find that he fits perfectly. Also, his behavior has changed overNight. He's currently my top suspect.

EDIT: xed with Nerwen

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Okay, so I have managed to clean my head (also literally), however the situation is basically the same as yesterDay.

So if I get down to elimination method. I am not going to vote Lottie, of course. Lommy now has made me slightly concerned given the emerging anti-Aganzir movement, however the concern is largely stemming from the fear of her being a likely target for a Wolf and thus, likely Cursed, but as there's no evidence of that, none can tell. I don't want to start to suspect Aganzir, because I know that once I will admit the possibility, I will basically have to lynch her, because there is no safety in a game she is in. Also her voting list does not help that much. However, I am trying to resist now and focus on others, as I still believe I have better grounds for suspecting other people. Brinn is in a way a case similar to Nerwen's, of all the people there I find her maybe the least suspicious, though.

Now for the harder part. I don't think I have seen WW posting much toDay, I hope it's not like having a under-the-radar newbie WW here. He is a possibility, but then again, there are possibly more suspicious people and I don't like the idea of getting too distracted as I can see once starting to sway from my originally rather clear suspects one can easily go totally into darkness. skip - basically once again, him likely being a Seer dream is the reason not to suspect him, although otherwise he might be a good Wolf - then, however, sort of deserving the credit for being rather unsuspicious. So essentially it comes down to those three again. If Nerwen seems to be the only reasonable option to vote, I might just as well finish what would have been done yesterDay. It is true that knowing her role would be rather relieving. But then again, I feel less decided about it than yesterDay, and maybe seeing more from her now will make me get a fresh better picture of her. Shasta once again does not seem to get much of a support. If Mira does, then I might vote her (even though it would have been better if she posted more, too).

EDIT: x-ed since Skip

[Nerwen]

Would vote:
Legate (he's acting differently toDay than in the past few Days. Maybe because he's sick; maybe because he was Cursed - and he'd definitely fit the profile of past kills.)

Lottie, that's not a good enough reason to lynch someone– certainly not yet, when we don't even know what happened last Night!


Nerwen (her recent actions look furry.)

Try "frustrated". You've never had to defend yourself against Agan, have you Lottie? There's a certain point when it dawns on you that she's never going to accept any counter-argument whatever...

EDIT:X'd with Legate and Lottie.

[Loslote]

Lottie, that's not a good enough reason to lynch someone– certainly not yet, when we don't even know what happened last Night!

Look at my later explanation.

Try "frustrated". You've never had to defend yourself against Agan, have you Lottie? There's a certain point when it dawns on you that she's never going to accept any counter-argument whatever...

I haven't, but this looks a bit over-the-top, considering you were in my category of people I only might vote, and probably won't.

[Nerwen]

Anyway–

++Aganzir

This is the second time I've had to vote someone I don't really suspect all that strongly. Or at least, I haven't had time to look through Agan's posts and make an informed opinion on her.

But I have to go now, and this time I definitely won't be back before DL.

So, good luck.

Just remember what I said: we can't afford to get lazy.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Okay, this does not make it much better. But I am not going to start thinking about Agan now.

It doesn't matter who was innocent-dreamed anymore. They could have been Cursed anyway, and thus would no longer be innocent.
Good point to mention, but let's not run too fast here. There is still no telling right now what exactly had happened yesterNight. Well, I could say the same to the suspicion you raised for me, though, not sure what do you mean by acting differently.

Anyway... as it does not seem like anybody willing to vote Shasta I think I will just vote Mira and go to sleep as I also start to feel rather tired and it's late anyway.

++Mira

Good night.

EDIT: x-ed with Nerwen, Lottie and Nerwen.

[Brinniel]

If I go down toDay, I have a request to the village: don't just let it slide. People who voted me will say, "oh, but she looked so evil"– but watch that. I'm pretty sure I haven't, objectively, done anything suspicious. It seems one of those cases where people repeat something until everyone believes it.
While I can agree with some things others say, I would not have a strong suspicion of anyone without going back to look at posts for myself. My opinion on you was based on what I read in your posts in previous Days, and I have been suspecting you for quite awhile. You may not think you've done anything suspicious, but you are looking at it with an inner perspective. If you are innocent, you have to remember that because we don't know your role, something that doesn't seem out of the ordinary to you, may appear suspicious to us.

Aganzir can be a very persuasive wolf, which is why she is dangerous when one. I've seen her make a case like this before (against me, in fact), and persuade the entire village to vote for said person. But with that said, when I've seen her do it, it's been towards the end of a game, when victory is near. If there is still one wolf left (and there definitely was yesterDay when she started the case), that wolf has survive several Days to defeat the village. An Agan-wolf would surely be aware that she would most likely be suspected if Nerwen was lynched and turned out innocent. So I'm wondering whether she would be so forceful against an innocent at this point in the game if she were a wolf.

For a lone wolf to win, the smartest thing to do his stay under the radar and not make any bold moves that could gather attention. So if anything, it might be worth suspecting those who put up bold attacks against another player less than those who follow suspicions. I could be wrong on this...maybe this wolf is very daring, but in my past experience as a lone wolf, it's best to try to sit back and let things happen without being forceful in any way. Unless you're being suspected...then it's all about defend, defend, defend (in whichever way the wolf thinks is most convincing).

Lottie, while we can consider the possibility of the cursed being turned, we shouldn't assume it. I recommend you don't vote someone because you think they are cursed...instead try to find the fourth wolf. If we lynch them, then we will find out whether we even have a cursed.

[Brinniel]

Try "frustrated". You've never had to defend yourself against Agan, have you Lottie? There's a certain point when it dawns on you that she's never going to accept any counter-argument whatever...
Frustrated can also be furry. There have been just as many frustrated wolves in the past as frustrated innocents. So don't think your frustration is going to make you look anymore innocent.

[wilwarin538]

Agan -> Nerwen
Skip -> Agan
Lommy -> Agan (2)
Nerwen -> Agan (3)
Legate -> Mira

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Actually, I've changed my mind.

That vote on Nerwen was rather frivolous actually, not that it would be my first. The person I really think is the likeliest wolf at this point is actually Aganzir, come to think of it. This is based on voting behaviour, general attitude towards people and the contrived dumping the retraction-argument. I'm using mine now:

--Nerwen
++Agan

Alright, after re-reading, this is probably the vote on the Agan-wagon that bothers me the most. With one vote for both Mira and Nerwen and three for Agan, and Mira not having shown up, and me having to leave, and me thinking Skip now looks quite suspicious...

++Mirandir

This will be all from me tonight.

[Mirandir]

Just got back from dinner with the parents. Took way longer than expected, meaning not enough time to do analysis. :mad:

While my internet was being shoddy, I was pondering Agan and Legate. However, I don't really have anything to justify those suspicions at the moment because BUS INTERNET SUCKS and I couldn't actually look at anything. I don't feel comfortable voting for either of them with that in mind, especially Agan. Skip's vote looks bandwaggonish. My vote's going to be a throwaway and I'm really upset with myself for having to do that this late in the game. I'll make it up to people if I'm still alive toMorrow.

++skip

Ugh.:mad:

[Brinniel]

I'd really like to lynch Nerwen, but someone else has to vote her too in order for that to happen...

Almost 10 minutes until deadline. Where is everyone?

[Loslote]

'Twas brilig, and the votling wustle
did mulsomingly pestiply,
not only fungoltch lamless parsle
but unpremining detrimy.

Beware the Jabberwock, my foes,
or friends who speak of "Day 1 noes"
when uffish Nogrod Borogrows
...all of you could be voted out.

In other words, I know certain members of the royal birth among us feel their right to checkmate from the start, I also know some of the newcomers to this party might be under the false impression that Day 1s are nothing to go with, but enough is enough and we should quickly stop it.

Just for the record of those who do not know, there is *plentiful* to go on with even on Day 1 - if you save your vote for later in the Day, that is, as by that time you can gather enoug hinformation, at least to help you decide whom you nightlike and whom you dislynch.

Because it is also easy for the Wolves to hide among random votes, if everybody made them, and also, I wonder as to whether a Cobbler would not give her or his presence away by making some stupid move... like voting randomly. Or something. Ahem.

EDIT: crossposted with the predicted Nogromiening pair.

ICness and defending Day 1 logic as opposed to randomosity.

Sumpling up to now.

'Twas brilig, and the Glirding Mirhares
have unstarted with nopoeham,
and Inzy were their simifroshares
no clue of either one of them.

Nienna didn't say much either, but at least seemed to be "concerned". Maybe. The same could be said of Shasta. Let me also note that sally looks all of a sudden far more reasonably behaving than usually in this company... (no offense)

wintywinty... well. I have said it basically above. As a newbie in any case, gets my benefit of doubt toDay, not going to lynch a newbie on Day 1... otherwise looking for more to know about him (her?)

I have no idea about what Fea wanted to accomplish, if it wasn't supposed to be in-character, so I just expect that when she shows up, she will give some explanation, if there is any.

'Twas Brinig... I wonder, not anything suspicious this far, her reaction to the votes (esp. the second one) maybe a bit too "reserved", but okay.

I am slightly at Lossloss, however I hope that as the posting continues, there will be higher frequasonable posts from her, which will help me to make a crilighter idmaginature of her.

Nerwenising Dodo, more or less Nerweanosable, which includes both typical Nerwenish behavior and being reasonable and being slightly nosy

Whittlegright, not suspicious now, yet she might easily be rading (yes, I mean as in "rade under the slipper" );

Juckprising Nogrin did catter much more and was much less - to my gasperate scaspation - Fearied about the winting votes;

thineasy fealing, seems to or wants to seem to know something more about Fea's vote than other people do (or at least more than I do) and even finds Lottie innocent on the basis of that, I would be much interested to know what it is, then. I can think of only one theory right now and if that's what she thinks, it's utter rubbish. Also the *jump* on Greenie felt sort of weird and, how would I say that, unnecessary. In any case, unexpected.

spencible, although a newbie Wolf who had just been instructed at Night might just as well have said the same.

So that's it in shrot.

EDIT: Aganixed.

IC analysis that confuses me.

No, it's *ahem* like underlining what I have just said (and saying that we have certain people who might have done exactly that with their votes, if there was somebody who didn't understand it from my post).


This however is just good point, so I only hope you are not a Wolf, but this far I don't have a reason to think so (so I hope you really are not ). Although when it comes to Cobblers, I am personally more of the type to leave them live at least for a while if we have better targets. But I can imagine such scenario as you have drawn it (I don't think I was in that game), the problem is of course that we are not going to know at all that somebody is a Cobbler before they die. But yes, why not in other words, let's just lynch whoever we think is evil and even if we think it might be a Cobbler, let's go for it, no harm done.

edit: x-ed with Lommy and Morsul

Responding to questions about his *ahem* and Agan's Cobbler point.

Ah, okay. Now I see (probably), whatever.

I'll be probably going now and back in... some hours. Rather later, I think, but still quite some time before the DL (of course before the DL, given that it's some 5AM my time).

Says he's going away for a bit.

I hope for the sake of the whole village that this is not a wolf-on-wolf suspicion


Okay, so our Moddess has already clarified that they do, but just a remark to this - maybe anyway for the sake of clarity, it would be better to use votes with people's names so as to make the orientation easier (well, we can look it up if we don't remember the particular person, but it also lowers the risk of casting a mistaken vote for Knight instead of Knave or whatnot). In any case, if people don't want their votes to count, then I would kindly ask people not to use them, or if so, then at least not highlight them, as that totally ruins the point and makes a mess out of the situation. But anyway, I assume that ww's vote was supposed to be "real". But just theoretically technical remark.


That name sounds just awesome I could start using it...



In general I agree with the remark, just seems to me however that Inzil just mentions it, but does not contribute much own thoughts on the Fea-issue himself, even though he thinks it "should" (emphasised) receive some scrutiny. Inzil doesn't seem to be very elaborative in any matter, however. The question however might be why is that. He's rather more... "quiet" than usually.



Ah, but it was my pleasure!



This seems a bit curious to me, as it's basically measuring two people with a different metre, whereas the difference is not that big. Or, there is a difference, Fea was first, yes, but still - this is outright defending the Red Queen on quite clearly defined grounds (explaining her psychological processes), which do not necessarily need to be "the" true reasons, as Fea didn't this far give any explanation on her own... Whatever, just remarking, I find this behavior just somewhat strange.

EDIT: x-ed with Lommy (okay that was the explanation I thought you meant) and WW (okay that is not an explanation in my book, even though in some other book it might be)

Makes a technical point; suspects Zil a bit.

Good to see the Nogcat being alive and kicking <= yeah, I guess that's him... it even says "Big Grin" at mouse-over.

Anyway... as for the Agan thing, I don't see a problem with that. She gave an overall warning now, so that we know it for the future and don't drag a Cobbler along for too dangerously long. Why not to say that if it occured to her now, and for that matter, I don't think it's undermining Seer's authority, but just warning the Seer and the others about the fact that they can't be 100% sure, but still, Seer is a Seer. Point.

Okay, now I see I am basically crossposting (I have refreshed the page and read what's up), so... some thoughts on people who haven't been posting that much earlier: I don't think Morsul is a problem, I can see where is he coming from, and it's a totally classical Morsul, after all. Who worries me is Fea, not because of her vote, but because of her almost zero participation. Zero participation comes also from Borogroves and Isabellkya, however they in contrary to Fea haven't been around at all. Anyway, what - or who - worries me really the most now is however Lottie. Starting with nothing, continuing with weird half-funny, half-serious-or-is-it? posting, makes me think of Cobbler quite clearly. For that matter, I am actually willing to accept Agan's advice and vote her toDay, as she looks the most evil of all people toDay. Even if she is just a Cobbler, a good shot (and one thing less to worry about). Greenie's last post also worried me a bit, like her slight touch of suspicion of Lommy sounds like somewhat not-carefully-enough copypasted thing from what I have said about Lommy earlier - and which has been clarified meanwhile (as in: could be a Wolf carelessly copying one random concern that has been voiced earlier, on the other hand, it feels a bit weird to imagine Greenie doing that so carelessly). Anyway, like I said, Lottie is my primary suspect now (and I'm probably going to vote soon).

EDIT: eurgh. x-ed with dozens... since Agan #62, so with some sallys, Lotties, Boros , Inzils, more Agans and Lommies and whatnot...

Suspects me and is worried about Fea.

Well that's really a bit too easy (as Lommy already pointed out too).

I could of course also wonder about:


Like "and where might you know that from, Nightly talks perchance?" although you probably have another explanation for that... or do you? (Only a totally stupid Wolf would, however, do that. Which makes me think that, if this does not have any logical explanation, you might be a Cobbler wanting us to think you are a Wolf and knowing it - thus making a blind shot - which would be funnily underlined now if WW said "I am a she", nah but whatever, I assume this is useless speculation as you probably have an explanation.)


Don't Cobblers usually try to think in the exactly opposite ways than normal people?

Anyway, all in all... doesn't make it better. I will be around for a while yet, but my main suspect is here already.

Asks how I know that WW is a guy; thinks I'm the Cobbler.

Okay... I wanted to say that generally, I dislike the idea of using up retractions when we already have them, as that kind of ruins the point, but then again that I understand the danger hidden in that, but now that Morsul said it... I know exactly what he is referring to, because it happened in the game I have modded, on the last Day he voted early, Wolves bandwaggoned it, and the Wolves won. On the other hand, such things can be (in most cases) avoided with careful reasoning before voting. Also, of course, if people decide to keep their votes, it would have the point only in the case if they keep it for really until late, otherwise it might end up just with the scenario outlined by the retraction-opponents, that is, that all innocents use up their retractions in a few first Days' voting and the WWs then all have their retractions and outsmart the village.

EDIT: x-ed since Agan changed her avvie (so basically since the post I quote)

Doesn't really committ to either side of the retractable debate.

It makes me also uneasy now given how smoothly it goes and how so many people are going for it, however, it's the first time I am actually suspecting Lottie in a game (as my primary suspect), which I think didn't happen this far... so I am just going to go with that too and hope that the queue is a result of the fact that she really is suspicious. I'd like to hope that in the worst case, she's "only" a Cobbler.

A few more minutes... and probably voting and going to sleep.

EDIT: x-ed with Glirdy, Sally and Catnod.

Is a bit uneasy with the Lottie-waggon but is still suspicious of me.

Well... one thing to say however is that if they do it at any early date, they will expose themselves and consequently get lynched for that. So it's not really as easily misuseable.


The Shiriffs can talk too, when we are speaking of it. Which is a positive thing here.

Brings up the Shirriffs and responds to something.

Well, didn't he just say "you can use your votes all you want, but I am not using mine"? There's no hypocrisy in that, only a difference in opinion... or that's what I thought.

Anyway...

[*highlight]++Lottie[/highlight*]

Good night.

Votes me and defends Morsul.

It's not neutral, and it's negative - the Shiriffs talking together can be a powerful thing for the Innocent side. In a way, however, now at least we are sure about Loslote - at least until somebody would make a counter-claim (which would be quite nice, but I don't expect it to happen). Also, it makes perfect sense in the light of her late-yesterDay words like "I am not evil", given the fact that Shiriffs couldn't reveal. I am sure the Wolves have noticed this and also (I have to review yet how the close-to-DL posts went time-wise by timestamps) check the Borovote, if it really saved Lottie, then it must have been obvious. Then the WWs might have been easily thinking "well, Ranger probably would notice this too and would protect Lottie - so let's kill Boro just to be on the safe side!" And maybe there was a chance that some people will still suspect Lottie. So... that's what I think has happened here overNight.

As for Fea being the cobbler, I must say I am happy for the outcome and it seems we were quite lucky. It's not a Wolf, but we don't need to worry about the famous Aganzir's horror scenario, and this is also the only way to be sure and discern a Cobbler from an innocent.

So now I am going to recheck who voted whom and whatnot, and maybe come up with some thoughts. Good that Lottie is making her input, as a known innocent, please continue doing so And btw, no need to weep yet, there is still the possibility that Boro might return from the dead (unless you are targeted and killed at Night, however who knows what the Ranger does...)

And btw, some people yesterDay voiced suspicion about me according to my vote for Lottie, calling it that I jumped on a bandwagon or something, note please that I kept saying that I am going to vote her (and was quite firmly decided to do that) already quite early, and I was the first one to suspect her as far as I am aware (my post where I said it crossposted I think with somebody saying similar suspicion, but that's it). And for that matter, I didn't even realise for quite a long time that Fea's vote was for her as well (as I didn't think about the vote, considering it a "random vote" which, even more likely, is going to be retracted! - cf. Lommy's theory about that Fea cast it only to retract it later. Anyway, I wasn't considering the vote). So my vote was only my vote and that's also why I kept it even with the concern about "easy lynch crowd" (as I said in reply to Nogrod who voiced that concern).

EDIT: x-ed with Nerwen and Lottie

Says that loosing the Shirriff is a bad thing (agreed) and defends himself.

Okay, rechecked the votes and also noticed that Boro accompanied his vote with "sorry hun, duty is forcing me to make this choice". Which, basically, is a big note saying "there is something going on here" - although it looks like he said it just to apologize to Fea whom he even might have thought innocent. Anyway, adding two and two together... it's really clear to see now where the WWs were (I'd say almost 99%) coming from.

Otherwise... if I were to assume that there is at least one Wolf in each of the bandwagons, which might as well not be the case, given that Wolves might have been just throwing away votes all over the place and making the village do the bad work... on the other hand, in my experience, the innocents are usually far more straightforward with their votes, i.e. if they have a suspicion, they go for it no matter that nobody else follows them, unlike WWs - of course depending on the particular WW, but I just think it's somehow more likely that way.

Anyway, what was I originally saying. If I had like a gun pointed at me right now and be told "say one name from each bandwaggon", from the Fea bandwaggon, I'd think of either Nogrod or Brinn, as skip who started it sounded reasonable and it was not a bandwaggon yet. Then maybe Brinn more than Nogrod, however I admit I'd have to reread Nog's posts one more time (and Brinn's maybe too, though I think I remember them better as there were less of them), as Nog generally speaks sense (well, Brinn does too, but...) but Brinn seems more "creepy". But in general, I consider both of them quite innocent and reasonable. There is however one important thing to take into account - would the Wolves dare to kill Boro toNight if there was one of them in the Fea bandwaggon? As that'd leave quite a few people, and if somebody took the idea that "now there is a Wolf in Fea's voters, I am sure of it!" there will be quite a large chance for the Wolf there being caught. Not that, on the other hand, there wasn't much of a difference - if Boro was alive and Lottie killed instead, he would probably reveal anyway and thus there will be again only 3 people left. Of course, it all comes down to how much the Wolves did think of at Night, which we can't determine. It could also have been perceived just as a "well, whatever" or "let's do it, we hope that people are not going to examine Fea's voters, thinking that she was a Cobbler so no Wolf voted her" (that would be a rather lame thinking, so I don't assume we have such simple Wolves). In other words, btw, it made me think that this must have been a really baaad Night for the WWs. "This Day went just wrong!" Quite a broken spirit, eh, dear furry stalking friends?

But I think the middle way would make the most sense, that the WWs just did what they had to, and now hoped the Fea voters won't be looked at. Okay, now actually along this train of thought, I have arrived somehow to being more inclined to believe that there might have been a Wolf among Fea voters more probably. If so, then I'd really put my bets on Brinn, as if you look at what she said toDay early, she started assuming a Wolf in Lottie-saving bandwaggon, but she explicitely named Greenie-wagon to be looked at, which could mean downplaying Fea-voters (of whom she is one)... and the more if Greenie was another fellow Wolf of hers.

However, note that this is a theory now made as my thoughts go, following the original premises. As for the other one, Lommy and Greenie are equally good choices for me to find a Wolf in the other bandwaggon if I were to look for it, maybe with having a few more reasons to think Lommy innocent for things she said yesterDay. But anyway, only speculating.

Then there of course would be another, wait, two Wolves among the rest! For that matter, sally's vote's been mentioned yesterDay as somewhat out-of-place and I sort of agree, if nothing else, it was inconsistent with what sally said. It wouldn't be a problem otherwise, but I think Nog or who was it had a point in saying that if sally wanted to save Lottie (resp. create a contest-bandwaggon), she would vote for somebody who already had a vote, and not me who didn't have a vote at all. I don't know if there was much of a chance to lynch me at the point (it didn't seem to me so much), so not sure if I can believe sally's explanation. (And that said, what I said above about innocents sticking to their votes won't certainly apply in this case - as that was not the reason sally stated, she came up with the somewhat strange explanation that she wanted to save Lottie.) Anyway... I am keeping my eye on her now.

Now otherwise, I'd need to look at people again... but I have at least somewhat settled the thoughts for myself.

EDIT: x-ed since my last

Suspects Nog a bit but then attributes Boro's point to Nog.

out of everyone who was not him or you, you wanted to say, I assume. Anyway... in contrary to people wondering about Lottie's suspects, I suggest we really consider them strongly (especially those which they agreed on). Of course, they are subjectively biased by the fact that it's two Shiriffs who have something in common who are making them, but the fact that two innocent people can communicate and agree on somebody is worth taking into account. Of course a bunch of innocents can be misled by pursuing the same illusion (and it happens all the time), but still - two brains know more than one. How many PMs did you guys exchange, Lottie? Especially the last Night? (Not sure if you are any longer around, but anyway, I think this might be a good thing to say anyway, as for us to take into account in the future - the more you've been able to put together the better.) For that matter, did you or Boro have any fears as to that you might be targeted at Night? (Like that Boro's apology to Fea in the last minute... when I saw it, it seemed like rather an unfortunate thing to say.)


Curious. As I haven't been skimming through the thread much, but I haven't noticed any connection between them, however, thinking about Lottie (wondering whether she is a Wolf or not), I remembered that "I am not evil" saying of her, and came to the conclusion that if I were to believe her, then it basically screams Shiriff, as they are the ones who are not allowed to reveal - so that's as most as she could have said. But maybe your brain is just not as clever as mine or then you are intentionally misleading us (rather clumsily, though) in trying to say that you weren't part of any Night planning.

That said, whereas Agan is starting to slightly annoy me again, I still want to keep myself in check and I don't think she is a Wolf, actually. Not this time. And at least I would hope I am right.

Huh. You know, that really doesn't say much, just talking about Shirriff stuffs and making the point that I was the other Shirriff and that the wolves probably noticed Boro's vote...not very helpful.

Not sure if I understand what you mean by this... but if you mean what I think you mean, at least for me it was slightly unnerving - influenced by the worries stated by Nogrod - to see the number of Lottie-voters amassing. That's what I'd call "smooth": going on and on, nobody seemed to contest it (at least by that time). Well anyway I think I elaborated on that yesterDay back then.


Now after Lommy's post it made me once again doubt Zil's innocence, returning my somehow bad feeling about him from early yesterDay. For now thinking of it, his action in relation to the Loslote-wagon would seem like a very nice "I-am-a-Wolf, I'll start out of the way but oh look, what those evil people are doing! On the other hand, if you decide all that Lottie is guilty, fine by me, do it, I just want you to lynch somebody else than us Wolves".



Most of all, she revealed herself as Shiriff. Unless there appears another Shiriff claiming otherwise, I trust her. And since nobody did...



Just a note here, as I think there is at least one part of it which I can see an explanation for from first-hand experience: even though I'd assume that people who have read the thread and thought about it would come to the conclusions above, it's not necessary that they have read it or came to the conclusions. For instance myself, after I have voted, I went to sleep - and later at Night only checked the outcome and did not much bother myself about who voted whom up to this morning, thus, not thinking about Boro at all (but yes about Loslote, as it was a thing I have been thinking about: so she's not lynched, but that does not mean she's innocent, but have I been wrong? So what did she say? But hey, what was this "I'm not evil!" shouting from her - and *click*, here came the idea). As for Fea, I have not seen her posting anything Cobbler-ish, unless you count the vote (for which there was other explanation offered by Lommy), by the time I went to sleep, there was like one more post from her saying nothing at all, and once again, when I read the rest of the thread, she was already dead and her role revealed. That's just to say that at least when it comes to us Europeans, I could see this as one possible thing happening that somebody might not have read the after-we-went-to-sleep things early or with much care, so I'd be taking it into account. On the other hand, if somebody claims to have read them and they have not spotted anything, that maybe might be somewhat puzzling. But otherwise, well.

EDIT: x-ed with one Nerwen, Lommy and skip

Says the same not-much agan.

Well, for the sake of being slightly ironic, you wouldn't have to be staying on the defensive if you actually were posting something constructive instead of it. (That's actually my overall weird impression of your performance in this game which I had noted already by the early time of yesterDay and that was the first thing that struck me as weird about you this time.) Anyway...


Of course I was and I have no problem with that. What are you trying to say now - "look, evil Legate is accusing me, who is white as snow, and I didn't want to lynch Lottie of whom we all well know that she's innocent, while he wanted to lynch our poor Lottie, of whom we all know that she's innocent"? And as for you being fine with Lottie's lynch, I never said that you were encouraging it, but you weren't discouraging it very strongly either. E.g.

That does not sound very "decided" to me. Anyway, the point of what I said about you was not the Lottie part, that was more like an addendum, but the main point of the sentence was that in general, you managed to stay "in the middle" with your behavior. Just like a Wolf who would best profit from letting the village to do the dirty work to actually pick people to lynch, as long as it was a non-Wolf. Your behavior in general looked like that to me - generally flip-flopping up to the point of not taking any initiative of your own.

But whatever, whatever. Please don't make more of what I said than what it was. I am not saying "Inzil MUST BE a Wolf", it was only one thought. However, it would be easy to imagine you as a Wolf - therefore you are on my suspicion list from now on (especially after your reaction now - meaning the thing I quote as second in this post).

EDIT: x-ed with Lommy

Suspects Zil but doesn't really committ.

Back from Alice in Wonderland to... Alirin in Wonderland. Okay, let's see...


I have actually noticed that earlier too, just before I have left. I am keeping it in the back of my head, though my thoughts about sally are not particularly clear at the moment.



But this sounds a rather too over-the-top defensive thing and somehow, the defense sounds just fabricated. That didn't help you at least in my eyes, sally. But whatever...

I am sure I had several more important things to say, but as I did not happen to quote them, I apparently forgot them. Okay, one of them was that I don't have any idea about Glirdan, and he does not seem suspicious to me (or suspicious enough to suspect him, if you get my meaning) as he does to many other people. Otherwise... something of Zil's replies made me think that he would be a lot more aggressive if he were a Wolf, on the other hand maybe he just doesn't want to retaliate on me as it would be dangerous for him... but anyway, I am still unsure about him. And yes, one last thing was probably Brinn, whose answer did not convince me about that there were not ulterior motives in not mentioning (nobody said she'd have to look at it herself, but she could have proposed it) looking at the bandwagon she was in (for more details to get a clear idea about what I mean by this look at one of my first posts toDay).

EDIT: x-ed with about ten posts since WW

Still won't committ to Zil or Glirdy, but suspects Zil a bit; says he had more important things to say but forgot them.

I am not sure if I will be taking such drastic measures right now, especially as I am not used to vote people based on just two or three posts with almost no content (but in this case I wouldn't be probably given much of a choice), nevertheless, it really makes me raise my eyebrows. So, ww - was your comment about Brinn something random, or where did it come from? (From Night talks to simply having to have an excuse, I'll be fine with any answer you provide Just it would be nice to see you a bit more engaged in the dialogue when somebody is actually asking you something or talking about you, that's how we mostly do things around here.)

Otherwise... I am really thinking whether Lottie is not a bit too over the top with suspecting Agan, it's happened to me too a few times (one time I remember in particular when I went punctually through all somebody's posts, pointed wonderful totally 100% proofs of his wolfishness, then we lynched him and he was innocent. And I got lynched the next Day. Of course, Lottie doesn't need to worry about that... anyway, it was supposed to say that zeal needs to cool down also once in a while to see things straight). I don't see anything bad on Agan this far... (if she is a Wolf, like so many times, I will end up kicking myself, but at least it won't be any change from the norm.)

Methinks me make myself a list, then vote and go to sleep. (Though beware of Nogrod, my friends, he returned from cinema with us and he's apparently reading the thread and writing something frumiously long... I'm sort of expecting it to pop up at any moment.)

EDIT: x-ed with one WW, M, L and LG

Suggests to me to tone down my Agan-suspicions.

A list...

'TWAS BRILIG:
Isabellkya – sounds more or less sensible in general, no reason to suspect right now
Agan – not suspicious this far, makes an effort and sounds, how to say it, "balanced" enough... okay, now I am starting to worry as I type this... but no, no, mustn't give in to paranoia. Leaving out of suspicion for now.
Lottie – Shiriff, apparently
Nerwen – no reason to suspect, looks innocent-ish this far
Lommy – there were a few moments when I have been slightly worried, but generally looks like innocent Lommie. I somewhat miss the flip-flopping though... ;)

IN UFFISH THOUGHT HE STOOD:
Glirdan – like I said, I don't find him any suspicious in particular. Not innocent either, but...
Nogrod – Nogrod is hard to work with even if you saw more from him than his smile... what more to say.
Mira – I have to admit I don't have paid very good attention to her this far, at least she didn't do anything eyebrow-raising which I would notice and it made me jump off my chair or something.
Shasta – more or less nothing special
Morsul – hard to say, but some of his reactions were innocent Morsul-ish, so he's in the better half this far
Nienna – not much reading on her, there were a few things she said which looked sensible and genuine. I admit I haven't been focusing well enough on her.
Skip – now this guy could be - I have just such a funny feeling - a quite brilliantly doing newbie Wolf. (I can imagine how happy Agan would be if the two of them were Wolves.) Nevertheless, his generally reasonable behavior and all that make me just see him as a brilliantly doing innocent. This far I don't have any proofs of fishiness in his behavior. I'm sort of thinking that if he was, it would show sooner or later.
Greenie – hasn't posted much, like I said, if I were to point at one person from the Lottie wagon and say it's a Wolf, I'd probably choose her, but still, there's not enough for me to read her.

BEWARE THE JABBERWOCK:
Inzil – after seeing him react and taking Lottie's word, I could give him a pass at least for toDay. Watchful eye, though.
Wintywinty – there's been very little input from him and the very little input was not very positive. (But thanks for replying anyway, that clears things a bit.) I'd like to see more input, however, just to be able to actually make a better judgement.
Sally – I find many of the points which have been brought against her as having quite some grounds, and her self-defense didn't help much to convince me otherwise, rather a bit to the opposite. Questionable, at least.
Brinniel – worrying, she's been under my watchful eye and continues to be so.

Note please that the borders of the cathegories can be somewhat hazy and are very general. However I will likely be picking my vote from among the lowest part toDay.

EDIT: x-ed since my last

Doesn't committ to Glirdy or Nog but does suspect Sally.

Thanks, already noticed that...

Noting this down in case Agan turns out to be a Wolf... ;)



Come on! Lottie, you may be a known innocent, but you are overdoing it. Not that I am saying you should not use your time as one with proper zeal, as being partial won't accomplish anything, but this of all things is not a reason for suspicion. Innocents are known to do that too, and on the other hand many Wolves know by now that it does not help them. The reaction can be genuine, so what... (okay, Glirdy's sounding maybe a bit more likely to be forced to me, but that's only because I am sure that Agan probably really is sad about not being able to play with Boro longer - which however does not speak neither for her being a Wolf nor for her being an innocent.)

EDIT: x-ed since my last... that's some two posts at the previous page and Inzil here

Um...how does that help? (the noting Nienna's post)

And admitted.

Well just when I was hoping to let it be... okay, I'd also like to see Zil just posting things orientated more to the present than to the past, but just this... once again, at least from yesterDay I didn't get the feeling that the bandwaggon would look "foul" to you, you were not at least violently protesting against it. You seemed more like "I don't want to be part of that", but not saying much more, therefore sort of implying "I don't want ot be part of that, but if others are determined to lynch her, I don't mind" (I am not saying you said that, but that's sort of logical conclusion stemming from what you said, the blank space you left), which is inconsistent with the picture you seem to be trying to give, that you actually were against it. That's the difference and that's actually quite well enough phrasing my main point against you. Well, whatever (I don't require you to bother yourself with replying this again, Zil, as this is again just repetition...). I am going to decide about my vote and sleep then.

Still suspects Zil.

Ha, just when I was about to remark that we still have to wait for the grin to appear with a long book...

Well! I am feeling slightly tired, but I'd like to wait for that, at least. At least to read it... means maybe I might ponder my vote for about a short while yet.

But in general, thinking Inzil, WW, Brinn and Sally... well, Inzil is a possibility, but I'd like to give him a chance, to see at least one more Day from him and then decide. WW is more or less something similar, and however maybe voting him would be the sort of "easiest" for me, it's sort of against my inner jabberwocky to vote a newbie even on Day 2 if it's on such weak grounds (by weak grounds meaning not the seriousness of my suspicion or things like that, but simply the fact that there were very few posts from him in total). Sally would be an option, and also there seems there are other people suspecting her, so if I wanted to pick according to who of my suspects is most likely to be lynched, I could go with her. Brinn is something in between, the problem is that she's not around much and I did not have the chance to "meet" with her much, in the sense, I'm around when she's not around and vice versa and it would be nice to see her respond to the fact that she's being suspected (something similar goes with sally as well, though sally at least has been responding to people about it). Okay... pondering, let's see if the Cat posts, and then I just vote and go... (I guess that's a sentence I have been saying a lot around here...)

EDIT: x-ed since Nogcat

Suspects Zil, WW, Brinn, and Sally.

Well I was sort of wondering at first too, but then it was apparently only about the first page of toDay. Still... well, let's see where it goes. (I don't think I'll be here for when he reaches the last page, though. So probably leaving it out...)



However this is basically going along with the wind which blows in the village. Glirdan and sally = people who are definitely going to be voted by many. Not sure whether not to beat my inner jabberwocky (see post above) and just go with it.

Debates whether or not to bandwaggon on Salwolf and Glirdwolf.

Okay, now we are talking! (Literally, which pleases me.) Well, it wouldn't, if you had good enough reasons for why you are suspecting such a person. That's not to say your reasons to suspect Glirdy or sally might not be valid, it just struck me as a move many Wolves are known to do, to sort of blend with the crowd. Of course on the other hand, if neither of those two is a Wolf, then it would possibly speak in your favor under such circumstances, as you have not mentioned anybody else.

This however brings me back to my original dilemma. If there were flowers out there, I might as well pick one and decide by tearing away the petals: Inzil-Brinn-Sally...

Doesn't know which to vote among Zil, Brinn, and Sally.

Okay, let's do it like the wise king Solomon would. We cut these possible candidates for my vote in half... no, no, wait, that wasn't what I wanted to do. (Well...)

Since WW just started to be a bit more talkative, I might want to keep him for toMorrow in hope he will talk more again.

With Brinn, I could vote her, but it would likely be just a throwaway vote, and possibly then there might be also a chance to have her talk more until toMorrow.

Now comes the Solomon part. Inzil or sally, I said already that now I felt like I might like to keep Inzil for a bit yet. But to be honest it doesn't matter to me if he is lynched either. In any case, those two are probably going to tell a lot to us if their roles are revealed. So... I think I might vote sally, and see how things go... (and yes, I have taken into account that "frustrated innocent" thing Shasta said about her, but I just think that's always a possibility, and I am not convinced of it being like that so that it would convince me.)

Check, vote and go...

EDIT: x-ed with sally, especially! couldn't have picked a better time, okay, hope it'll help me decide, resp. support my decision... and greenie

Debates between his candidates more.

Okay, so it DID clear things for me. That more or less emphasises all my previous suspicions.

[*highlight]++sally[/highlight*]

The jaws that bite, the claws that catch
will rob thee of thy shinbone.
Tinbone! Thinbone!
I think I've mixed a song or two
For this is about shinbone...

Good night!

EDIT: x-ed since my last.

Votes Sally.

Okayy... so in general. As for Izzy-kill, I think it's most likely that she was killed because several people trusted her and nobody really suspected her much. I don't think there's much to gather from there, which probably was the point for the Wolves.

Otherwise... as for Glirdan and Sally, I think sally's comment can mean either. Whatever is Glirdan's role, Sally either wanted to a) if Glirdan is innocent, to make us wonder about her comment, whether it was so obvious that it was Wolf-on-Wolf or something (the same btw. concerning her comment in her list about Inzil "he's innocent! Don't ask why, he just is" or how it was), and of course preferring if by any chance Glirdy was lynched instead of her - it would give her at least one more Night to live and make us waste yesterDay's lynch and then use toDay's lynch on her, or b) if he's her packmate, she really wouldn't care much whoever of them gets lynched, either way it will be a Wolf (that goes also for all the other Wolves voting, of course, let us bear in mind), and in such a case, if he was lynched, yes, she could gamble toMorrow with a Seer reveal or something (although I think it will be somewhat hard for her to get definite support, but it might lure the real Seer out, and in general sow confusion), or simply, if she was lynched (like she was), we might think that Glirdan was innocent because of all that.

Related to that, of course, Nienna's decisive vote could be taken as important indicator if Glirdan was innocent, but we wouldn't know until he is dead, so that is not really of much help now, the matter is too hazy to speculate on right now.

Otherwise... I think the most interesting thing is how people have reacted to this sally-Glirdan thing, as for sure Wolves would have a different opinion on it (in their head) than rest of the people, as they'd know Glirdy's role, and something interesting might leak through.

Let me once again note that it was Inzil who keeps just "coming back to me on his own" (i.e. I intend not to keep looking just at him all the time and his posts jump at me anyway). This:


If Glirdan is a Wolf and Zil too, this would of course be a real possibility for a defense of a fellow packmate. But you know, it's just somehow... clumsy. But in whichever way: whether for innocent or guilty Zil. Okay, he crossposted, so he didn't know what the general mood in the village is, and most of the later posts have shown actually some suspicion of Glirdan. So if Zil is a Wolf, and he wanted to support the idea that Glirdy is innocent, he misexpected (heck, could you say that? No. Is there a word for that? Hope you know what I mean) the village, which showed generally more suspicion to Glirdan this far and now Zil might stick out with trying to think Glirdan innocent. But even an innocent Zil, in my opinion, would have at least more reservations about thinking Glirdy innocent on sally's comment - I mean, Zil has played dozens of games already, and he obviously should know that such random comments thrown by Wolves especially in such a situation can mean anything, or nothing, and they can be bluffs, double-bluffs, triple-bluffs or who knows what. So this very simple reasoning... there is just something wrong with it. But the problem is that it's just clumsy, which does not speak as itself for his guilt or innocence - the possibility of him being a Wolf and "misexpecting" the village's reaction, however, sounds at least a bit more probable and makes a bit more sense (but still it's just weird).


Agreed... Well, now that there actually is more of a reason to suspect him, I am probably going to review him myself, because this far I didn't have reasons to suspect him. I am most looking forward to hearing from him toDay, though, and see how he posts...

Lommy has a good point about that thing that WWs might have killed somebody from Glirdy bandwagon if he's guilty, however of course that doesn't have to be like that necessarily, but it's one quite good remark to consider apart from other things.

Otherwise, there was something really really baaad about WW yesterDay just when I was leaving or maybe a bit later when I was re-reading the thread, not sure, but there was something that made me think at the moment "okay, I definitely have to vote WW toMorrow". Not sure what it was, I am going to look it up.

EDIT: x-ed with skip.

Throws out suspicion of WW and reiterates Lommy's point defending Glirdy.

Okay, now I wonder, because I actually didn't find it. Something like that happened, though, it apparently doesn't have the same effect on me anymore. (Now I will spend the rest of the Day thinking about what it was...) I wonder if it might have been his vote for sally (as that's basically the only logical option), but I can't think why. Actually now rereading his posts made me think better of him, esp. if Glirdan is innocent (WW voted sally) and he also quoted Isabell in one of his posts, which given that he posted very few posts in total would somehow "link" him to her, so not sure if the Wolves would dare to kill her if about almost the only person he ever quoted was her. (Though of course, this kind of "link" is so vague that it really isn't any big deal, but...)

Okay, but whatever... for now, I am probably going to review some folks... although I should still read a piece of article for tomorrow, I might spend some time with that and then come back to the thread...

Can't find what made him suspect WW.

I'm back... but I don't plan to be around for very long, as I have to wake up very early tomorrow. I would actually prefer to leave in about an hour or something, so basically that means I should decide whom to vote here toDay and then go.

Before I do it, general remarks. I have become a bit worried about Aganzir now, just looking at her vote yesterDay. If it's timing was how it was (as stated by Nogrod, when she gave his vote to him), and if Glirdan is a Wolf, then that would be really a logical way to vote for a Wolf, as it was likely other people might vote Inzil (like I could do that, for example) and also it would not be threatening any of the Wolves (Sally and Glirdan, in this scenario). Something similar might go for Greenie's vote for Shasta, in such a case. Once again, this is just with the scenario assuming Glirdan is a Wolf. (Well, I really think knowing his role would clarify many things.) However, I am remarking that with relation to Aganzir also in relation to the fact that she has been just very, well, sneaky up to now (there's probably not a better word). She seems to be going her own way a lot and basically avoiding getting into the "pot", to the center of things where it all boils, while at the same time keeping us aware that she is around and posting and looking reasonable. That said, I do not have any particular reason to suspect her - yet. But I just thought to remark it here as a current thought that's on my mind and maybe, in future Days, it will become worth something. (Or not.)

Otherwise, I don't have particularly specific reasons to suspect Glirdan (as I didn't have earlier) other than the things implied toDay, as I have also mentioned earlier toDay, possible co-packing with sally and all that. If it wasn't for this, I thing I actually wouldn't be suspecting him at all - so now I am not really thinking about voting him toDay, but somebody else.

I'll return to the voting list once again. Basically from somewhere around the point I and WW have voted, it must have been clear for the Wolves that their sally is running up for the lynch. So now depending on the individual Wolves' nature, they'd likely try to either save her (a dangerous attempt which might expose them), or throw their votes away (and thus throwing her away as well). Greenie, Shasta and Mira (and Aganzir, however I have already mentioned her above and technically her vote came earlier, but most of the rules apply - well, see above) belong to this cathegory and it seems fairly likely that one Wolf at least would be among them. If Glirdan is a Wolf, then even more likely. On the other hand, if Glirdan is a Wolf, then I'd expect some Wolf/ves in the Sally bandwaggon. Okay, actually it seems really many things depend on whether Glirdan is innocent or not. One of the things is also my suspicion for Inzil, as his vote was placed in such a way that if Glirdan is a Wolf, it would have been quite good, almost safe place for a Wolf-on-Wolf vote.

Okay, so in other words, that sort of makes one think about voting Glirdy just for the sake of untangling that knot of questions. On the other hand, maybe it will be more interesting to try to repeat the feat of King Solomon (which seemed to pay off yesterDay) and vote somebody else. I will think for a bit - and then vote and go to sleep. So, around and watching and thinking...

EDIT: x-ed with Greenie

Suspects Agan and Zil; considers voting Glirdy but doesn't come up with original points against him.

Well, if I was going by the odds, I would never lynch anybody, as by the statistics, EVERYBODY is more likely to be innocent than a Wolf, it's always 3:13 or how many are we here. (That's why maths don't work and aside from that, I hate maths *moves a bit further away from the post with disgust*.) But most importantly, I was more like thinking aloud - I certainly would not vote him randomly just to see what his role is, that would be utterly stupid. That's also the reason why I do not really want to vote him, since apart from this curisity I have very little that I suspect him for (like I said above, anyway).

I am rethinking, let me see now the list of people for the last time and then I probably vote and be gone. I have to sleep.

Dislikes voting randomly.

Okay, so simply put it looks like it finally came to voting my sort of long-term suspect,

[*highlight]++Inziladun[/highlight*]

who is the person I suspect the most in general at the moment.

Good night, people, and vote well.

EDIT: x-ed with Greenie and Shasta

Votes Zil, which actually looks quite bad - he was the potential alternate bandwaggon if he wanted to save Glirdy.

Okay, so first, the Seer thing is pretty unfortunate especially at the time like this, as I would have expected this Day to be a really good one for a Seer to reveal (if he had something interesting to say), as that's been quite a long time no Seer around (usually, on Day 2 or 3 at most somebody appears claiming to be a Seer. And especially in this game I was quite happy at the prospect of it happening today, as if such a Seer was an impostor, he'd basically sacrifice himself, with such a low amount of Wolves remaining). Well, okay, but on the positive note, we still have lynched a Wolf yesterDay and now we can look for all the possible evidence related to voting bandwaggons etc.

Greenie kill first, though, I don't know if we can assume that the Wolves expected anything from her, on the other hand, she was suspected quite well too, so maybe there had to be a reason to kill her other than a no-trace kill. On the third hand again, most importantly I think we should try to think of Greenie's death in the light of the fact that there are two Wolves who just lost two of their packmates consequently in two Days, have no Cobbler, and it's quite possible some of them are suspected considerably. Now when we look back at the previous Night's kill, it's quite easy to see why a no-trace kill was chosen, they had to just hope that Glirdan will be forgotten next Day and so probably did not want to make any move which could either confirm it or look like a bluff. This time, maybe they wanted to cover the track completely - possibility A - but let's not rule out possibility B, that they wanted to stir thoughts in the village in order to produce new suspects out of the village's own initiative (thus having their hands clean in bringing them up), and that might be for instance framing Nogrod - or Lottie, for that matter, who still hasn't been targeted (but that thing just wouldn't work because there's been no counterevidence for her being the Shiriff, so it does not make sense for anyone to disbelieve her). For that matter, I think framing Nogrod is a possibility, even though I am not saying some of the things - as noted by Nerwen, like that "free to suspect anyone" post on Day 1 - could not point to his guilt.

There was something I wanted to say in regards to Lottie - oh yes, this. Just to note, I think the Wolves might be keeping her around partially also because of the fact that she seems to raise suspicion for lot of people, and especially if it's wrong, they might be thinking that she might serve to make some confusion in the village (influence other people with wrong assumptions etc.) However, of course, if they suspected Greenie was the Seer, then it is perfectly explainable why they didn't target Lottie even though she's a known innocent (and thus at least a hindrance in the voting process as the village's numbers get thinner). If there was anything that could lead the Wolves to think that way, it would be at most that Greenie's remark "you are no Seer", or something, which in the context was maybe a bit out-of-the-blue, but not necessarily sticking out so much (however, now on the other hand, thinking about it, I think I have sort of noticed it back then when she was saying it, even though I didn't pay attention to it - but then it might be likely that if some Wolf was intentionally looking for Seer hints, he might have noticed it. So maybe it raises the probability of the Wolves actually knowing whom they are killing?). Or then we are back again at the possibility of a paranoid Wolfgrod killing her because there was simply no other way. But all in all it really depends on whether the WWs suspected she was the Seer or not.

As for Greenie's dreams, I really am not able to collect any definitely proven hints. It is also possible, however, that she has dreamed of some of the people who have died, which might happen. What she says about Nogrod does not seem to me necessarily like dreaming about him - and I have at least seen that she really tends to suspect him in many games (and he suspects her - which didn't happen that much here, but that does not say anything, it would've been more telling if it was the other way around). I think Greenie was in general rather careful in announcing what she possibly knew about people, which in this way is a pity, but what can we do.

Otherwise, I would join what's been said here:


That makes sense in comparison to what I have read and I can very well imagine Greenie dreaming of Skip on Day 1. That sounds actually the most plausible of all things I can think of, given that she was also absolutely happy to see him playing etc, so I assume she could have dreamed him.

I guess that's it. But otherwise:

Very good "methodical" thoughts, so to say, and that said, off to re-check some of my theories in the light of Glirdan's death, and also re-check yesterDay's voting. Will be back in a while with a few comments to the current situation.

Doesn't see any Seer-hints but also thinks she dreamed Skip. :rolleyes:

So, after looking again through the thread yesterDay and the Day before that a bit too, some comments.

People I believe more innocent now related to what they said or whatnot in relation to Glirdan: Lommy (remarked about his possible guilt early in the Day because of ), Nienna (was among the first yesterDay to speak and she mentioned that Glirdan actually likely is a Wolf), Morsul (the same, even more strongly), Brinn (generally she said and voted in a few ways that make it seem genuine for her to be against the Wolves, and not just acting or something). The question is, how much were the Wolves willing to get rid of Glirdan yesterDay, there's a slight possibility that they have been decided from the beginning that he's gone and let him be. But in some way I find it more likely that they would not just give up and encourage his lynch strongly to make themselves look innocent. I think some stumbling in the middle is more expectable.

For that matter, my suspicion of Inzil with the theory that if Glirdan is a Wolf, Inzil might be a packmate with interesting way of choosing sides would of course work now. The curious thing however is that Inzil did something again which would be so clumsy that I can't believe he would do that - starting yesterDay with defending Glirdan, while he voted him the Day before. For an innocent, this behavior would make far more sense than for a Wolf. And given now that sally and Glirdan were both guilty, sally's remark "Inzil is innocent, I just know that" seems rather more unlikely to make if Inzil was another packmate of theirs - simply putting too much at risk.

So I am not sure right now what to think of Inzil. Anyway, as for what I have said about Greenie possibly dreaming about skip, his yesterDay's voting was on the other hand very suspicious - but then again, I have read this:



I think this might be a very innocent explanation of why skip trusted Glirdan, and so in the end I am ready to accept him as innocent, given the other things like the probability that Greenie dreamed of him. But all in all, otherwise, things start getting rather dark. That means I probably have to look at the rest of the people whom I have not been looking very much at this far - like Shasta, Mira etc. I am also growing slight paranogroid, but... well.

Trusts Skip; suspects Zil; trusts Lommy, Nienna, Morsul, and Brinn.

Okay, I am back here, but I feel sort of... exhausted. Well, been walking around the city for three hours straight and then two hours with an one-hour pause... spent the last half an hour with partially reading and partially eating. I think I will spend some time with the latter yet. My hands really don't feel like typing (although I have no idea what they have to do with walking, but it simply is like that), so for now I will limit myself to few one-line comments.


Well, but obviously she didn't. One thing that comes to my mind is that if she didn't have really any strong support for her claim, especially if she e.g. has dreamed about some people who were already dead, she wouldn't dare to come forth. Heck, there is even the unlikely scenario that she dreamed about ONLY the dead people. (Although that's of course a bit over the top.) Anyway, I think Nogrod is a bit too "pessimistic" here - or also deliberately covering the fact that he killed Greenie. In any case, not being able to uncover anything is one thing, but denying the possibility and not even trying is another.

There are, from my point of view, basically two options. Either the kill was done to frame Nogrod and drive us away from the current (resp. yesterDay's) main suspects, which for me would mean e.g. Inzil especially, or the kill was done to kill a Seer, which would mean most likely a Wolfgrod. I can't see much of any other possibility behind these two and thus will be probably voting according to it toDay.

I agree with what Lommy says, and with what Brinn says here:


Let me also note that if Nog was a Wolf, if he suspected Greenie of dreaming of him, by leaving the Seer alive one more Night, he would also risk another of his fellows (i.e. the last one, in this scenario) being dreamt about, so it would definitely come to eliminating her as first priority. (Not to speak of the fact that if she revealed, the Ranger would've likely protected her at least for one Night.)

The main point for the reasoning that Greenie was killed because of Seerishness is still the fact that the Wolves did not kill Loslote, even though that would make the most sense!

So much for one-liners

EDIT: x-ed with 2/3 of Lommy and the rest

More talk about Greenie.

Two words. Known. Innocent.

I have elaborated on this a bit more in the first post (or maybe second, well one of the early ones, anyway) of toDay, saying that okay, maybe this or that, maybe the matter isn't so pressing for them yet, but still... why not to get rid of the known innocent while they can? Eventually, it will become a problem for them, one person who is "clean", and by that time they might not have the option to choose anymore whether to kill her at Night or not - there might be many, many other more pressing problems and they would not be sure at which Night the Ranger is protecting her or not etc.

EDIT: x-ed since the quoted Nog

Responds to Nog.

Well, I must say that the idea of the Wolves looking for the Cursed makes sense in itself, it's what they would like probably the most right now, but the point is, to use skip's odds from yesterDay, that there is really little chance for them to get one, something like 1:12 or how many. Pretty bad, I think. It would be impossible for the Wolves to just keep killing a person after a person with the intention to find the Cursed, it's as much of a chance that they stumble upon a Hunter who might just as well kill one of them, or an Unicorn, for that matter. The problem is that there is not even a clue about somebody being a Cursed, because the person itself does not know that! So it's just that the WWs may just go about their own business and hope that somewhere along the way they stumble upon the Cursed.

So I don't know what to make of it, Nogrod just joined the list of people who are possibly suspicious and don't make sense at the same time. Really, is that something catchy or what?

Okay, maybe only one possible explanation now occured to me - and that's probably what he meant, now thinking of it - that the WWs would rather kill a person they know is NOT a Gifted in hope that it'll be a Cursed. But, well, that has the same problem as the above (only with the odds being 1:11 instead of 1:12) AND on top of that it would leave a live Seer with all the problems I have remarked in my last post. Ridiculous. All of this does not say anything about Nogrod's innocence or guilt to me, it just tells me that he is thinking in a rather megalomanic way. Unless he is a Wolf and is annoyed to be suspected on wrong grounds, as it should be obvious to us in his opinion that he should have been looking for Cursed and leave Greenie alive. And all of that, of course, considering that the Wolves knew who Greenie is. That's so random that I am actually beginning to consider whether what Aganzir said about Nogrod possibly slipping his Wolf thoughts might not be true after all.

EDIT: x-ed since Lommy's 4/3

Admits that the wolves probably would look for the Cursed.

Now, if you are innocent, Nog, you would not resign and try to find some suspect. You are not doing anything. And accusing Agan does not make sense here, because even though you are right that she does not make her own effort, she has a case - unlike you.


I don't know about Shasta, but at least Morsul this far does not seem suspicious to me. He has been acting more or less like his innocent self, and the possible slip of all things is not very convincing to me either (I mean, I can see Morsul making a mistake like that without it being a slip).

It is interesting nevertheless, you sort of made me now imagine the interesting idea of Morsul fooling us (or me) all the time, because he really seemed "normal" to me. Anyway, it's good to see skip sort of working independantly, making me think even better of him. (If he's a Wolf, hats off (to Roy Harper).)

EDIT: x-ed with Nog

Trusts Morsul.

This makes sense in a way, however, of course one must ask the fundamental question once again, why did the Wolves do what they did if it wasn't so. Back to my thoughts early in the Day, the options do not seem to be too many. In any case, if Nogrod is lynched and he turns out to be innocent, I will be turning back to the situation how it was before toDay, i.e. looking at those who were suspected back then. As if we rule out the possibility of the Wolves knowing Greenie was the Seer, I really cannot imagine other reasons for killing her than creating the confusion, framing Nogrod and leading us away from the trail.

Anyway, my main dilemma toDay is simply whether to join lynching Nogrod - and therefore getting part of the answers to the above - or to believe in the other of the possibilities and lynch one of the other suspects, in my case Inzil. However as I am not sure how much the other makes sense right now and considering that I have been slightly unsure about Inzil's guilt for a few reasons (see earlier toDay), it might as well be Nogrod. Even though I am wondering if his defense is not that of a genuine innocent.

Wonders if Nog could be innnocent.

Well but that makes two people out of a dozen.

Good point about Agan, though, I never felt the dreams listed by Lommy made that much sense - or not in the way she posted them, anyway, it played little role. Personally I think one of them was skip, maybe even the first one, and then perhaps even somebody dead, and then depending... a Wolf Nogrod, or something totally different. Well, I sort of spoke about this in the beginning of the Day. It certainly would help a lot to have Greenie revived, but well, we have to do without that at least for now.

And now, to something completely different.

A list. (For those who know Bob, that was supposed to be said in his voice.)

SUSPECTING

Nogrod - mostly this possibility of Greenie kill...
Inzil - see a long time ago, in a Galaxy...

CURIOUS ABOUT

Mira - no idea at all
Shasta - something similar, a bit worried by some points raised against him, but I haven't really made any of my own observations with definite focus on him.

INNOCENTISH WITH THE PARANOID FEELING THAT THEY MIGHT BE WOLVES FOOLING ME (in the order from the topmost - the most paranoid about - to the lowest, the least paranoid about)
Aganzir - that paranoia does not need to be explained, I believe. Also, she is just sort of faring too good. Eurgh.
Nerwen - well... she looks okay, but it's just similar case as Agan, you can't really know with her
Morsul - see my post above
skip - see also my post above
Lommy - is in this cathegory only because her crusade against Nogrod is a bit too much of a crusade, on the other hand, a Wolf would not be so zealous, in my opinion - that would mean basically signing one's own death penalty. Actually, that might almost move her into the next cathegory. Really. Well but then, I could do the same also for Morsul and Skip, as I am really not *that* paranoid about them. Well, and maybe Nerwen. Okay, that leaves Agan. Well, what a surprise ;) Nah, it's not just about paranoia, it's just sort of that I am not THAT inclined to consider them as "clean". But maybe really I should move Lommy down there. Okay, enough of this rant :D

INNOCENTISH WITHOUT AS MUCH OF A PARANOID FEELING
Wintywinty - looks a lot better now, though not posting much
Brinniel - speaks lots of sense lately
Nienna - generally think innocent, early comments about the WWs

INNOCENT
Loslote

In general, if I had to bet, I would say - or hope - that both of the Wolves are among the four topmost.

EDIT: x-ed with two Shastas

Suspects Nog, Zil, Shasta, and Mira.

Okay, if Nog turns out innocent, I will also remember this, Shastaggoning for Nogrod?

Anyway, as for voting, I am not feeling as comfortable as earlier. Of course after two Wolves being lynched it is not any big deal yet. But nevertheless, I think I will be probably voting Nogrod. It also makes sort of the most sense. Even though I would assume him to put up a bit more fight as a Wolf. Argh.

Now I was basically just sitting here and thinking for a few minutes. Okay, let me see if a sudden stroke of brilliance shines on me or if I crossposted with somebody clever, then I vote and go to sleep.

Suspects Shasta.

Well that was not just *somebody* clever, that was our very Moddess

But I'll tell you what, I have this irrational feeling to actually vote for Shasta and just be gone. However that said, I haven't been reading his posts at all with any deep insight and I honestly don't have a clue. And it would be so random. Okay! Let's do it, I am going to actually go very quickly through his posts just to have the peace of mind after reading them (or not). Urgh.

EDIT: okay, x-ed with more, actually Shasta himself.

Wants to vote Shasta.

Okay, it brought some new questions and stuff, but I cannot really focus on that anymore. It brought at least sort-of peace of mind in the sense that I have sort of confirmed to myself that there is only one sensible way for me to vote now. And if nothing else, it is sort of giving Greenie's yesterDay's vote and suspicion of Nogrod a support post mortem. If she ever dreamt of a Wolf, it was most likely him.

[highlight]++Nogrod[/highlight*]

Good night, people.

Votes Nog.

Okay, I am around, however not sure how much time I will have. Not right now, at least, maybe later in the evening (that is, some six hours from now, or a bit later).

For now, in any case, at least here goes my favoured suspect Inzil, and I need to look at other people, even though I sort of wanted to give it a shot. Morsul has raised some controversy, as I see, though he seemed innocent to me before - or at least a "normal Morsul". This self-vote is slightly more puzzling, but then again, if I think about it more deeply, I could imagine an annoyed Morsul doing that. Nonetheless, it can be a last desperate attempt to save himself (or rather half-desperate half-resigned move, as it does not have a perspective, I believe, even if it was so and if it was succesful in making the village go "a Wolf wouldn't say that, let's leave him alone", eventually in a Day or two we'd return to him, I'm sure, but still I can imagine Morsul doing it). But since I cannot tell according to his behavior whether he is just innocent Morsul or maybe a more clever version of Morsul pretending to be innocent, I might as well look at his interactions with sally/Glirdan/Nogrod when I have time (which means not now). That's something that probably should be the key to us in general, as far as we can gather from their attitudes towards other people. We should bear in mind that the WWs, especially later (Nog?) when they saw they are rather doomed, might have possibly tried to disconnect themselves from their remaining packmate, however, there are still certainly things where they'd be more careful and e.g. avoid talking too much with their mates or something. Also the earlier we go (when they felt safe), I think the more we could find, although of course then again, back then they could not have had problems with interacting with their packmates in certain ways because there were just still many people and the WWs didn't think they'll be spotted.

Anyway - that's something that I am going to possibly try to do, but later, for now I will hang around for a while, but probably not have much time to read anything in detail, and then I will be off for several hours.

As for the death of Nienna, as far as I can see it seems most probable to me that she was killed as a person who was generally thought innocent. No other obvious motives (and seems nobody else noticed anything like that either).

Agan, if you still want that thing you quoted explained (or did you already understand it? I wasn't able to gather that from your posts), may you quote where exactly it was from and then I could tell you?

And last of all, I've been called wishy-washy on Wolves, come on, I have voted them in the end (or more or less), and I think a Wolf wouldn't make such a show out of being undecided. That is, speaking of that, also something I want to consider when looking for the WW connections - I think the WWs will be generally rather decided (if they e.g. decided to nail their comrade from the beginning), or with some "back door" open there, but not so openly (i.e. not like talking to oneself aloud for ten posts whether to vote this person or not, but sort of quietly remarking "...but what it" or leaving the door open, Nogrod actually has partially done something like that). I think for example reviewing Nogrod's behavior towards those who seemed to be getting obviously lynched (esp. Glirdan, since with Sally it was Wolf or Wolf) might give some clue to the identity of the last Wolf, i.e. maybe if there was somebody with the same/diametrally opposite behavior who at the same time was sort of careful and not interacting with Nogrod too much etc. - such a person would be a likely suspect for me. But, like I said, I don't have time to check it now.

EDIT: x-ed since Agan, and certainly thanks to Lommy for the list! So maybe I can actually look at something now at least generally...

Complains about being called wishy-washy even though he *was*.

Okay, so if I were to think based on the voting list:

Winty would give some Wolf-on-Wolf votes, but as far as I remember, it was more or less at the phase when lot of it was decided (although at one point I recall him voting either right before or after me, I think it was even before, so that would sort of indicate for his innocence at that time, as it was by the time that the person did not have too many votes yet and WW was basically giving a sort of decisive, or a "now it's real and strong bandwaggon"-type vote).

Lommy is innocent basically 100% for me. There's no way she would have acted like that as a Wolf.

Morsul: hard to say, but given the fact that he's been voting early... wouldn't it be a bit counterproductive esp. when it comes to voting Sally and Glirdan? I don't think (with all due respect ;) ) that Morsul is so bold to vote two of his packmates out, especially given that Nogrod was certainly not as bold. By the way, that makes me think strongly that even his other packmate was not so bold, so I'll be looking for the last Wolf probably mainly among the people who weren't very bold or downright voted somewhere "throwaway".

That would partially apply to Aganzir. Now I wonder if I should be worried.

Skip would be another option. A very good newbie Wolf, with very little suspicion and all, slipping nicely unnoticed through the crowd... Of course the question would be if he is a Wolf or a very individualistic innocent who is very reasonable and refuses to join the general bandwaggons. I think I am going to recheck him, and what he said about Nog, and vice versa, etc...

Shasta... could be something similar, also quite a lot of these "throwaway" votes.

Brinn, if she's a Wolf, would have a really Wolf-on-Wolf, or at least from Day 2 (3? Have to check if she voted Sally when there was mainly her or Glirdan already, or when there was still yet a chance to start a bandwaggon for somebody else - or on the other hand, if she didn't vote Sally when it YET didn't look like she would be necessarily voted by many at all).

Nerwen... well, that'd be basically the same as above.

Mira: ahem... okay. If she's the Wolf, I hope she is going to be modfired. As that'd certainly not be fair for all of us to lynch each other and then find out that it was her all the time.

EDIT: x-ed with Morsul

List.

Okay, back. I didn't read deeply the Nerwen-Agan-whatnot-whatever disputes, so I am going to reread them again properly to see what was going on there. Meanwhile, comment on other posts:


This, especially the first part, I sort of don't like and am not sure about it. On my first sight, that made me alert. Is it, like, a Wolf too easily jumping on the easy lynch without joining it yet (=i.e. going to vote later and blend with the crowd once people all start voting Morsul?)


Interesting 180° turn of being understanding to Morsul, to whom you never seemed to understand at all, right at the moment he voted himself. But whatever...

Generally speaking, if I went with sort of my line of thought how it was all the time and not admitting any possibility of suddenly turning my world upside-down because of being paranoid that Nerwen, Agan or somebody might be Wolves, then I would basically seek for the Wolf between Shasta or Mira the most.

There is one reason why I think Agan might be innocent, also because I believe Greenie would have dreamed of her. I mean, have Aganzir running unchecked, I think she would have looked into that. I think now it's really a pity that she did not get to reveal her dreams to us! Unless she really dreamed only of dead people. But that sounds quite unlikely - also exactly because of what I have just said about Agan.

So now I am going to reread, then reread somehow further into the past, and then hopefully even further, and if I am not asleep by then, I will do something about it.

EDIT: x-ed since Morsul

Doesn't suspect Agan.

Okay and since Morsul did it, now I can say it aloud, that's exactly what I have been thinking he's going to do. The action may of course not imply anything in general if just anybody did it, but given Morsul-logic, if I try to imagine it from his perspective, it makes me think him more innocent. Maybe also Shasta, but there's a questionmark over that.

EDIT: x-ed with Agan

Claims that he knew Morsul would do that.

Well I said that before among the people she might have dreamt about in the beginning, the problem is that she basically didn't proclaim anybody or almost anybody as totally clean. Well I'd have to recheck - if she kept saying some things about suspecting her also on the last Day, it's another thing. Whatever. Now I have other tasks...

Anyway, sort of generally... if I think about voting...

Not voting Mira, because she could hang around for a while yet and then be modfired if she does not participate. If she does, we can at least read something from her and see. Not going to vote her now when she hasn't been around for a while.

Not voting Morsul, said above, generally now leaning to think him innocent.

Not voting Lommy. If there is anybody innocent around here, it's her.

Not voting Agan either. I believe she is innocent. (Okay, though actually now Lommy has disputed that dream thing, so I might recheck it. Still, otherwise, not really suspecting her... or sort of "would like not to suspect her". Because I am sort of restraining myself from starting to think her a Wolf, because if she is, I am going to hate her.)

Now we are getting into the harder part.

Not voting skip? Because if he is a Wolf he would deserve it and at least we could lynch him in every consequent game? I am not really sure.

Brinniel. Nerwen. Not really suspecting either of them. Brinniel maybe even less. Actually after her last posts I think her innocent. Nerwen, I think I am getting paranoid, maybe I need to re-read some of her older posts. Her summary as made by Agan does not make me suspect her, as many of the points she brings up there are explainable to me and I don't see anything suspicious in them. But then... now not sure if the rereading is going to accomplish much, to be honest. If she is a Wolf, the only way to incriminate her is to dream of her or to find her through her packmates.

WW is not much around... his voting list speaks partially against him being a Wolf.

Does that leave Shasta... I need to re-read him as well.

EDIT: x-ed since Mira and all... okay...

Could vote for any number of people.



...Well. Let me make a vote count, if possible...

So just let me see toDay's votes.

Morsul -> Morsul (Morsul 1)
Nerwen -> Skip (Skip 1, Morsul 1)
Shasta -> Morsul (Morsul 2, Skip 1)
Morsul -> --Morsul (Skip 1, Morsul 1)
Morsul -> Skip (Skip 2, Morsul 1)
Agan -> Nerwen (Skip 2, Morsul 1, Nerwen 1)
skip -> Morsul (Morsul 2, Skip 2, Nerwen 1)
Mira -> Morsul (Morsul 3, Skip 2, Nerwen 1)
Lommy -> Nerwen (Morsul 3, Nerwen 2, Skip 2)

Left to vote: Lottie, Brinn and possible retractors, and winty, if he exists. And me.

Okay, given that skip might have been a Seer dream... maybe letting him live... but then what? Doesn't look like lynching Shasta (although it would be still possible, but rather theoretically). Actually now I have also reread Morsul's posting and seems I have misinterpretated it before, I thought that he re-voted for skip only after skip voted him, now I realised that it was not so (he merely suspected him and voted him after that), it might have been also the way that Morsul saw Nerwen voting skip and merrily joined, copying Nerwen's own move she used against him (or rather: he used against himself) when she was a WW in my game. But that sounds a) rather complicated, b) possibly improbable to come up with even for Morsul's surprising agency. Anyway. Need to think. I could vote Nerwen for the peace of mind, but my suspicions for her basically equal nil. Might be "worth a shot" though, if I take it the way that it's really just a shot.

Will think and be back in a minute.

EDIT: x-ed since the start of the page

Doesn't know who to vote.

So should I say: "If you say so?"

Okay. Let's give it a shot. It makes one Day wasted at most. Since I am rather clueless otherwise and basically from the people voted for I don't want to vote skip and Morsul is not any particularly clearly better option either, here we go.

[highlight]++Nerwen[/highlight*]

This Day's been rather "sliding in the dark" for me, but then again it would be nice if we have nailed the last one and it will be done in a nice and smooth way.

Votes Nerwen.

Yes, I have been thinking more or less the same.



Indeed. Let's just lynch her and get over with that - now that I have voted for her as well, I don't want it to go waste.

Good night.

Wants to lynch Nerwen.

Okay, I am here. So basically, we don't know what exactly has happened toNight and wilwa is actually not going to tell us at all. Well originally I sort of assumed that if a Ranger-save or a Cursed-turning happened, then we would be told in the narration, but since the Moddess stated otherwise, it can be anything. Whatever, I guess like somebody said we do not have much chance of unveiling it. If it was a Cursed-turning, we'd learn sooner or later, otherwise, of course the Ranger would know at least if it was a save. That said, I have been thinking whether actually some Gifteds coming out at some point wouldn't make sense, or at least later it could prove good (having lots of known innocents around, especially if Lottie is still around, and narrowing the choices a lot for us), but then on the other hand again, it would probably also narrow the choice for the Wolf to get the Cursed villager (if it has not been turned yet) and also, it would likely mean that the Unicorn would not ever be killed at all, which would basically reduce him/her to a known innocent (and his/her main importance right now is probably in that if a Wolf is stumbling at Night and killing people, that he/she accidentally kills an Unicorn and revives somebody, thus effectively negating the kill and creating a known innocent, and esp. if it returned some Greenie or something, it would be quite good).

But anyway, back to general thoughts... first in any case, I believe it wasn't clever for certain to turn around the lynch like it was yesterDay (well in general, even though I had no particularly deep suspicion for Nerwen, after I have decided to vote her, it was sort of disappointing to see "just" Morsul die, also because I was sort of "reading" him a lot better than Nerwen, who is basically enigmatic person otherwise). Sort of disappointing in that regard.

I will take a look at the yesterDay's votes now, to sort of review how it went and if there is a chance to get something out of it.

Otherwise, whatever has happened at Night, I guess since the Moddess is not giving us any hints, I think we should just continue as we go now - and if we lynch the last Wolf and the game does not end (or if later at Night something happens and we actually will be informed that the Cursed has been turned), the game will continue and then we can focus on the task there (and in such a case probably have some guidelines for finding any Wolf-interactions then). For that matter, if the Cursing did happen toNight, I would be most worried about Lommy then, as she was generally considered innocent, I believe, so I guess she would be a likely target for the Wolf. Also if this Night was missing the kill, I'd consider it more likely that the Wolf is Mira, or possibly WW (both of them sort of not being around that much - then again, however, if I were to choose, WW has quite a "clean" voting list, as I noted before). But whatever, leaving this for now.

Anyway, I am going to just review yesterDay's voting, like I said, and then hopefully post some thoughts on people in general. I guess I will focus mainly on my suspects from before, as I still think the Wolves are most likely to be among those with "uncertain voting patterns", but let's see...

Will look at votes; doesn't want to think about what happened over Night.

Okay, so in general not very sure much could be gathered from yesterDay's votes, but I sort of did not expect much, now that we can't count on any Wolf saving a Wolf there (or voting on Wolf, for that matter). Some people voted in self-preservation, which makes sense in any case, and otherwise the bandwaggons were not that big and were rather equal in size, so it's hard to judge. I guess the main evidence for us especially now still lays in people's interactions before.

I still trust Lommy, and Aganzir (well, like I said earlier). I am still not sure about Shasta, although his yesterDay's vote does not make him look any worse to me, it does not also make it better as it basically does not say anything, and there are still his earlier relations or attitudes towards the Wolves (or their behavior towards him) which could just as well be careful unpackmating.

I am of course, after yesterDay, sort of disappointed of not lynching Nerwen, maybe now I could actually re-read her also more deeply (although in general she also makes lots of lists and that's just rather long/annoying/not informative to read). If I were to say now where we could find the remaining Wolf, I would really go for either of Shasta, Mira and Nerwen (although I'd rather re-check her first, like I said). It is sort of funny how I said that Mira originally voiced only her suspicion of Morsul (sort of "in concert" with others) and later when the bandwaggon starts rolling she will jump on it, which she exactly did in the end. It is true that she had voiced suspicion for him before that, although it was several days ago, but of course we cannot say if it might not have been just something that she found now good to use. But anyway, generally she really hasn't been around very much - so especially that way we cannot have much of information about her possible interaction with the other Wolves. Otherwise, if I were to continue elsewhere, I could think about Skip too (the old question of him being either a rather good newbie Wolf or an "individualistic innocent"); his vote yesterDay might having been joining a bandwaggon "for a good reason" (something similar could be said about Shasta's vote also), but still I am sort of thinking that Greenie might have dreamed of him. If it were not for that, I would be suspecting him probably quite a bit by now, but right now he is not seeming that likely to me. Then also WW is a possibility, but he's again rather on the far side of the line.

EDIT: okay, seems something is happening at last. X-ed since my last post.

Trusts Lommy; doesn't trust Mira.

Well, that depends on the game's mechanics. I wouldn't have thought of that, but then, I am generally used to the fact that saves and whatnot are announced in the narrations. If I was doing it, I would probably send a PM to the Ranger in reply, saying "you saved XY" if it was the case, although now given our Moddesses behavior, it seems somewhat less likely for her to act like that. But anyway, well... who knows, I say let's leave the issue for now and concentrate on the present.



As for this, I have been also wondering if we'd learn that, like, it would be nice to have a: "XXX - lynched on Day X - cursed" or something as announcement there. I guess that would make sense - but anyway... let's see.

Talks about what happened overNight. *look up*

Okay, I am around, I have been reading but then wasn't around as I was feeling slightly unwell for a while, but I think it should be better now. Anyway, however, I think I will just prefer to vote soon and leave after that. I think I might just as well vote for some of my earlier suspects. I don't really see very much into Agan and Nerwen's dispute, as it starts to be hazy to me and since I am basically unable to follow it, it's all back and forth and not really giving me any contributive evidence for Nerwen or Agan's guilt or innocence. It has reached the stage where it has became totally untransparent.

And after re-reading some things, I don't really think I have that much suspicion for Nerwen based on what she said earlier or stuff like that. She of all people is somebody who could have such a nice voting record as she has even if she were a Wolf, but that is just a thing meaning that she does not need to be innocent because of that, so it's a neutral statement, but not making her guilty. I think the main thing is just something like with Agan, that basically I cannot say when she's a Wolf - but that's about it or a sheer paranoia. Shasta on the other hand has rather bad voting list, which is still the same thing as I said yesterDay. Another option might be Mira, however, I am not so keen on voting her right now given her previous long absence.

That'll be it in short. I will probably go through my thoughts on everybody once again and then probably vote soon.

EDIT: x-ed with Nerwen, Lommy and Agans

Isn't feeling well but suspects Mira.

Okay, so I have managed to clean my head (also literally), however the situation is basically the same as yesterDay.

So if I get down to elimination method. I am not going to vote Lottie, of course. Lommy now has made me slightly concerned given the emerging anti-Aganzir movement, however the concern is largely stemming from the fear of her being a likely target for a Wolf and thus, likely Cursed, but as there's no evidence of that, none can tell. I don't want to start to suspect Aganzir, because I know that once I will admit the possibility, I will basically have to lynch her, because there is no safety in a game she is in. Also her voting list does not help that much. However, I am trying to resist now and focus on others, as I still believe I have better grounds for suspecting other people. Brinn is in a way a case similar to Nerwen's, of all the people there I find her maybe the least suspicious, though.

Now for the harder part. I don't think I have seen WW posting much toDay, I hope it's not like having a under-the-radar newbie WW here. He is a possibility, but then again, there are possibly more suspicious people and I don't like the idea of getting too distracted as I can see once starting to sway from my originally rather clear suspects one can easily go totally into darkness. skip - basically once again, him likely being a Seer dream is the reason not to suspect him, although otherwise he might be a good Wolf - then, however, sort of deserving the credit for being rather unsuspicious. So essentially it comes down to those three again. If Nerwen seems to be the only reasonable option to vote, I might just as well finish what would have been done yesterDay. It is true that knowing her role would be rather relieving. But then again, I feel less decided about it than yesterDay, and maybe seeing more from her now will make me get a fresh better picture of her. Shasta once again does not seem to get much of a support. If Mira does, then I might vote her (even though it would have been better if she posted more, too).

EDIT: x-ed since Skip

Suspects Shasta but there's not support and suspects Mira.

Okay, this does not make it much better. But I am not going to start thinking about Agan now.


Good point to mention, but let's not run too fast here. There is still no telling right now what exactly had happened yesterNight. Well, I could say the same to the suspicion you raised for me, though, not sure what do you mean by acting differently.

Anyway... as it does not seem like anybody willing to vote Shasta I think I will just vote Mira and go to sleep as I also start to feel rather tired and it's late anyway.

[highlight]++Mira[/highlight*]

Good night.

EDIT: x-ed with Nerwen, Lottie and Nerwen.

Votes Mira and doesn't really achknowledge my suspicion of him.

Conclusions: Legate looks really suspicious, actually. It's really late in the Day for this, I know, but I didn't get around to it earlier. :rolleyes:


EDIT: xed since Shasta.

[wilwarin538]

Agan -> Nerwen
Skip -> Agan
Lommy -> Agan (2)
Nerwen -> Agan (3)
Legate -> Mira
Shasta -> Mira (2)
Mira -> Skip

[Loslote]

Just got back from dinner with the parents. Took way longer than expected, meaning not enough time to do analysis. :mad:

While my internet was being shoddy, I was pondering Agan and Legate. However, I don't really have anything to justify those suspicions at the moment because BUS INTERNET SUCKS and I couldn't actually look at anything. I don't feel comfortable voting for either of them with that in mind, especially Agan. Skip's vote looks bandwaggonish. My vote's going to be a throwaway and I'm really upset with myself for having to do that this late in the game. I'll make it up to people if I'm still alive toMorrow.

[highlight]++skip[/highlight*]

Ugh.:mad:

Iiiinteresting. Light wolf-on-wolf? Mira + Legate pack? *ponders*

I'd really like to lynch Nerwen, but someone else has to vote her too in order for that to happen...

Almost 10 minutes until deadline. Where is everyone?

Here I am! :p

EDIT: xed with Miss Moddess.

[Brinniel]

Are you voting Legate then? Though that'd be a throwaway...

I really hope you don't vote based on possible packs. Because we don't even know if there is one.

[Loslote]

As a Legate-lynch is unlikely so late in the Day, I'll go...

++Mira

Because she looks suspicious.

EDIT: xed with Brinn, and I forgot: I also don't want Agan to die.

[wintywinty]

++Mira

[Brinniel]

++Nerwen

Bah, this is annoying. I really hope Agan is the wolf then..

If I'm dead by toMorrow, please LYNCH NERWEN. Well, unless Agan turns out to be a wolf...

[Brinniel]

Oh crap, Mira's going? I'd rather see Agan go, though not enough to retract...

Looks like an easy lynch. Mira's been busy in RL. I do NOT like how winty keeps coming out of nowhere to vote.

[wilwarin538]

Agan -> Nerwen
Skip -> Agan
Lommy -> Agan (2)
Nerwen -> Agan (3)
Legate -> Mira
Shasta -> Mira (2)
Mira -> Skip
Lottie -> Mira (3)
Winty -> Mira (4)
Brinn -> Nerwen (2)

Mira is dead. She was Ordinary.

Narration will be up later. You can expect spoons and tea to be involved.

[wilwarin538]

~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~

Alirin walked and walked and walked. She wasn’t sure really where she was, or how far she was from the blue door, if she was going in a circle or not, the path went in all sort of directions so she really had no idea of where she could be heading. Finally after a long time of not seeing anything but trees and flowers she saw something extremely familiar.

Alirin walked up to the March Hare’s home and looked at the long table. The *teapot* was still sitting in the same spot and the Hatter was still face down in his cup. However the March Hare was no longer at the table, he was sitting on his door step. All around him on the ground he had cups and teapots and biscuits. He was drinking a large cup of tea while also pouring sugar into a flower bed beside him and jittering nervously to himself.

Alirin sat down on the ground facing him and tried to find a clean cup to have some tea as well.

“Have some wine.” he offered trying to smile at her, though it looked rather twitchy.

Alirin looked around. “I don’t see any wine.”

“There isn’t any.” he replied. Alirin was about to say something about how uncivil that was but chose not too because of the Hare’s fragile state. Alirin sat quietly for a time as the Hare mumbled “twinkle, twinkle, twinkle” over and over again while wringing his long ears.

“He’s gone even madder!” Alirin thought to herself, “Though considering his friends died it is not surprising.” This thought she had also made her wonder why she hadn’t yet gone mad, considering all the death she had witness in Wonderland. Though the Cat had told her she was already mad, perhaps he had been right.

As she continued to contemplate her madness the Hare had now started eating a plum cake and was saying “best butter, best butter” over and over to himself.
Alirin began to grow bored of the Hare, who was clearly going bonkers and was not in the mood for conversation. But she was tired of walking and decided to sit a while longer.

“How are you feeling Mr. Hare?” she decided to ask him. He jumped at the sound of her voice and looked at her wide eyed, as though he had forgotten she was there the whole time.

“I didn’t steal anything.” he said.

“I said feel, not steal.” she said, being sure to annunciate clearly.

“I don’t like eels.” the Hare said, shaking his head very quickly and looking closely at his spoon.

Alirin decided to give up, and was about to get up and leave when the Hare got up first. She thought he might go inside his home, but instead he started to climb up it. In no time at all he was sitting on top of his roof with a teapot and his plum cake. This behaviour was just too odd for Alirin to ignore.

“Mr. Hare, I have to insist that you come back down!” she hollered up to him. He looked at her startled again. “He really keeps forgetting I’m here!” she thought to herself. This time he was so terrified by her presence that he begun pacing quickly back and forth while talking to his teapot about butter and bats, and eventually he was going so fast that he lost his balanced and tumbled off the back of his house.

Surprisingly Alirin was not surprised by this, since it had become rather normal for everyone in her presence to perish suddenly. So she once again started to walk back down the path, wondering if anyone would ever survive more than five minutes in her presence.

~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~

Dead
Fea - Red Queen - Cobbler - lynched Day 1
Boro - the Caterpillar - Shirriff - killed Night 2
Sally - the Dormouse - Wolf - lynched Day 2
Izzy - White Rabbit - Ordinary - killed Night 3
Glirdan - Mad Hatter - Wolf - lynched Day 3
Greenie - White Night - Seer - killed Night 4
Nogrod – Cheshire Cat – Wolf – lynched Day 4
Nienna - White Queen - Hunter - killed Night 5
Inzil - King of Hearts - Ordinary - hunter killed Night 5
Morsul - Mock Turtle - Ordinary - lynched Day 5
Mira - March Hare - Ordinary - lynched Day 6

Alive
Wintywinty – Tweedledum
Agan – Queen of Hearts
Shasta – Knave of Hearts
Lottie – Duchess
Nerwen – the Dodo
Legate – Jabberwocky
Skip – Humpty Dumpty
Lommy – the Gryphon
Brinniel – Tweedledee

It is still Night 7.

[wilwarin538]

~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~

Alirin walked down the path feeling greatly depressed. She decided she had to do something to cheer herself up. After a few moments of thought she decided that skipping would do the trick. She skipped down the path for a few moments and really started to feel much happier. This is when she saw a long wall up ahead and an egg sitting on top. As she got closer to it she could see that this egg had a face and arms and legs and knew that it had to be Humpty Dumpty himself.

Humpty Dumpty sat on a wall

“Tell me your name and your business.” he said to her as she stopped in front of him.

“My name is Alirin.”

“That’s a stupid enough name!” Humpty Dumpty said, “What does it mean?”

“Must a name mean something?” Alirin asked.

“Of course it must!” Humpty said, “My name means the shape I am, and a good handsome shape it is! With a name like yours, you might be any shape!”

“Why do you sit here all alone?” Alirin asked, not wishing to start an argument.

“Why, because there’s nobody with me!” cried Humpty Dumpty.

Humpty Dumpty had a great fall

“Don’t you think you’d be safer on the ground? You could fall off.” she asked him.

“Of course I would not! Now if I ever did fall off – which would never happen – but IF I were to, why the king has promised me, with his very own mouth, that he would –“

“Send all his horses and all his men.” Alirin finished.

All the kings horses and all the kings men

“Why, I declare!” Humpty Dumpty declared, “You’ve been listening at doors, and behind trees, and down chimneys, or else you wouldn’t have known that!”

“What a nice belt you have!”Alirin remarked, ignoring the accusation that she eavesdropped.

“Thank you. It was a un-birthday present from the White King and Queen.” he answered, looking rather proud when he mentioned the royals.

“What is a un-birthday present?” Alirin asked.

“Clearly, it is a present you receive on a day that is not your birthday.” he answered.

“I think I prefer birthday presents.” Alirin responded.

“Well, that is ridiculous. How many days of the year is it your birthday?” he asked.

“One.” she responded.

“How many days are there in a year?” Humpty Dumpty questioned, crossing his arms and leaning forward. Alirin was sure he’d fall off at any moment.

“Three hundred and sixty five, of course.” she replied.

“So therefore, how many days are there that are not your birthday?” he asked.

“Three hundred and sixty four.” she answered.

“So then there are three hundred and sixty four days to get un-birthday presents, and only one day to get a birthday present, making un-birthday presents much better.”

Alirin didn’t want to argue so she asked Humpty Dumpty if there was anything special about the belt.

“Why yes, in fact there is.” he answered. “It helps me protect people!”

“From what?” she asked.

“Various things that people would need protecting from, of course!” Humpty Dumpty answered, looking very proud. Suddenly he lost his balance, just as she had been predicting, and came tumbling to the ground into a hundreds of little pieces.

Couldn’t put Humpty together again

Alirin continued down the path once more, not in the mood for skipping any longer.

~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~

Dead
Fea - Red Queen - Cobbler - lynched Day 1
Boro - the Caterpillar - Shirriff - killed Night 2
Sally - the Dormouse - Wolf - lynched Day 2
Izzy - White Rabbit - Ordinary - killed Night 3
Glirdan - Mad Hatter - Wolf - lynched Day 3
Greenie - White Night - Seer - killed Night 4
Nogrod – Cheshire Cat – Wolf – lynched Day 4
Nienna - White Queen - Hunter - killed Night 5
Inzil - King of Hearts - Ordinary - hunter killed Night 5
Morsul - Mock Turtle - Ordinary - lynched Day 5
Mira - March Hare - Ordinary - lynched Day 6
Skip - Humpty Dumpty - Ranger - killed Night 7

Alive
Wintywinty – Tweedledum
Agan – Queen of Hearts
Shasta – Knave of Hearts
Lottie – Duchess
Nerwen – the Dodo
Legate – Jabberwocky
Lommy – the Gryphon
Brinniel – Tweedledee

It is now Day 7. Yes you can post a bit early.

[Loslote]

I trust:
Me.

I mostly trust:
Agan
Shasta
Brinn

I don't know about:
WW
Lommy

I suspect:
Nerwen
Legate

I want a Legate lynch. I may settle for a Nerwen lynch, but only if there is absolutely no chance of a Legate lynch.

And I don't think Legate was the Cursed, I think he was always a wolf. If there is a Cursed, I think it's Nerwen, which is why I want Legate lynched first.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Alright, can I just say that Brinn isn't the only one who is really bothered by winty's fly-by voting? :rolleyes:

Back with more a bit later, probably on Legate/Nerwen/Agan or thereabouts. I really don't think we can afford to keep ignoring winty for long, though.

[Loslote]

Alright, can I just say that Brinn isn't the only one who is really bothered by winty's fly-by voting? :rolleyes:

Back with more a bit later, probably on Legate/Nerwen/Agan or thereabouts. I really don't think we can afford to keep ignoring winty for long, though.

Agreed about WW; he's getting rather worrisome.

[Brinniel]

So, skip was our ranger. You know, I can't imagine ranger is an easy role for a newbie to play....skip did a decent job of laying low, until now at least. And he did especially good if he managed a save (which we still don't know).

Btw, I told you Mira was an easy lynch. Silly people. :rolleyes: Seriously though, these last two Days have had pretty lousy lynch choices, in my opinion.

Can we please lynch Nerwen toDay? I still find her suspicious and whatever her role may be, knowing it will at least ease my mind. Okay, I promise to try looking at others too to see if anyone else turns up more suspicious, but I really don't have much time toDay.

Also, if Lottie is still alive, does this mean our wolf is still looking for the cursed? Or maybe he/she wants us to think that way. Or perhaps Lottie is so off in her suspicions, that it's actually better to keep her alive. Just speculating here.

As for winty, I don't like how he's voting out of nowhere, but I'm just wondering if that's just poor innocent behaviour rather than wolfish. While his voting makes me uneasy, I don't think he's worth lynching toDay at least...possibly another easy lynch.

Btw, we have two Days to get this right if the cursed is out there, three if it's just one wolf. We're so close and I would just hate it if we lost now.

[Loslote]

Can we please lynch Nerwen toDay? I still find her suspicious and whatever her role may be, knowing it will at least ease my mind. Okay, I promise to try looking at others too to see if anyone else turns up more suspicious, but I really don't have much time toDay.

I wouldn't object to a Nerwen-lynch. As I've said, I'd prefer a Legate-lynch, but Nerwen's my second choice.

Also, if Lottie is still alive, does this mean our wolf is still looking for the cursed? Or maybe he/she wants us to think that way. Or perhaps Lottie is so off in her suspicions, that it's actually better to keep her alive. Just speculating here.

Or the wolves guessed that the Ranger would protect me - after all, with the Cursed turned, they'd have no reason not to kill me (known innocent that I am) and so went after the Ranger instead, maybe.

[Nerwen]

I want a Legate lynch. I may settle for a Nerwen lynch, but only if there is absolutely no chance of a Legate lynch.

And I don't think Legate was the Cursed, I think he was always a wolf. If there is a Cursed, I think it's Nerwen, which is why I want Legate lynched first.

Is this because I played differently yesterDay? I was just tired and exasperated, Lottie. I'm annoyed at myself now. Defending yourself strongly– yes, even if you're innocent– is usually a mistake, and one I shouldn't have made. (In fact forcing an innocent to defend himself until he looked suspicious used to be a very popular wolf-tactic, though it seems to have fallen out of favour recently.)

What I'm concerned about now is that your willingness to accept me as a backup lynch is going to make it very hard to get a wolf toDay, since it seems I'm almost guaranteed votes from Agan and Brinn anyway.

So, skip was our ranger. You know, I can't imagine ranger is an easy role for a newbie to play....skip did a decent job of laying low, until now at least. And he did especially good if he managed a save (which we still don't know).

I wonder if he did? I mean if Wilwa would have let him know?

Can we please lynch Nerwen toDay? I still find her suspicious and whatever her role may be, knowing it will at least ease my mind. Okay, I promise to try looking at others too to see if anyone else turns up more suspicious, but I really don't have much time toDay.

I don't know what to say, Brinniel. I'm not a wolf, and it's getting too late in the game to lynch people "to ease your mind" (cf Mira). I answered the case against me yesterDay in full, but if that won't satisfy you there's nothing more I can say.

Also, if Lottie is still alive, does this mean our wolf is still looking for the cursed? Or maybe he/she wants us to think that way. Or perhaps Lottie is so off in her suspicions, that it's actually better to keep her alive. Just speculating here.


It could be any of those things– though I wonder if the wolf/ves suspected Skip's role?

EDIT:X'd with Lottie.

[Loslote]

Is this because I played differently yesterDay? I was just tired and exasperated, Lottie. I'm annoyed at myself now. Defending yourself strongly– yes, even if you're innocent– is usually a mistake, and one I shouldn't have made. (In fact forcing an innocent to defend himself until he looked suspicious used to be a very popular wolf-tactic, though it seems to have fallen out of favour recently.)

What I'm concerned about now is that your willingness to accept me as a backup lynch is going to make it very hard to get a wolf toDay, since it seems I'm almost guaranteed votes from Agan and Brinn anyway.



I wonder if he did? I mean if Wilwa would have let him know?



I don't know what to say, Brinniel. I'm not a wolf, and it's getting too late in the game to lynch people "to ease your mind" (cf Mira). I answered the case against me yesterDay in full, but if that won't satisfy you there's nothing more I can say.



It could be any of those things– though I wonder if the wolf/ves suspected Skip's role?

EDIT:X'd with Lottie.

But now this post looks innocent again. :confused:

Okay. I'll shoot for Legate-lynch and come back to Nerwen when I have a clearer idea of what she is. :rolleyes:

[Loslote]

Okay, this does not make it much better. But I am not going to start thinking about Agan now.

Here he brings up slight suspicion of Agan but at the same time backs away. As Agan was one of the top bandwaggons of yesterDay, this is strangely not committed. Usually you have some opionion of the bandwaggons, and dont' want to say "I am not going to start thinking about her now".

Good point to mention, but let's not run too fast here. There is still no telling right now what exactly had happened yesterNight. Well, I could say the same to the suspicion you raised for me, though, not sure what do you mean by acting differently.

You're right, you weren't. I just hadn't noticed that you were suspicious before. And he keeps throwing doubt onto the Cursed theory. If the Cursed was turned, the wolves wouldn't want us to know that, because it confuses us and keeps important knowledge away from us. When I was turned in Sally's game, I was really hoping that no one figured it out.

Anyway... as it does not seem like anybody willing to vote Shasta I think I will just vote Mira and go to sleep as I also start to feel rather tired and it's late anyway.

++Mira

Good night.

And then he votes Mira (another bandwaggon) because "it does not seem like anybody was willing to vote Shasta." Suspicious much? :rolleyes:

[Thinlómien]

Gah, I'm sort of annoyed at the turn this game has taken. The two last lynches have been very stupid and lazy in my opinion, and now we lost Skippy, one of the few I really trusted (and who even turned out to be our ranger). I was sort of hoping I'd get killed instead because the game is starting to make me frustrated...

Well I guess there are good sides to Skip's death too - now the possibility of a very likely seer-dream semi-known innocent turning evil is eliminated and now anybody won't waste a lynch on him... :rolleyes:

Just if you get Winty lynched toDay I will probably give up and quit, or alternatively stay awake until 4-5 am (whenever the DL exactly is my time) and make sure you lynch somebody really suspicious... grr. Okay, sorry about that rant, now I'm off to read and comment yesterDay and toDay.

[Thinlómien]

Because that's the option that makes the most sense to me. The wolves/wolf have/had probably been trying to find the cursed, and so it makes sense that they did.And why does that make a ranger save any less likely? Or the wolf having a busy weekend? Your conclusions lay on shaky grounds.

Conclusions: Legate looks really suspicious, actually....why? I don't see that you had any points against him anywhere in your analysis and then you just conslude he's suspicious. Also, before you wanted to nail him as cursed and once Brinn criticised your methods, you went on to "prove" he was actually one of the original wolves. Is it certain we can't have a Cursed Shiriff? :rolleyes:

Pretty much agree on everything in Brinn's post #902, although Nerwen also has a point against mind-easing lynches. I would actually like to ask: who do you Nerwen suspect?

Well whatever the case, I still think the last wolf is Nerwen or Agan. Could be Legate, but Lottie's case against him just seems so silly that I can't bring myself to seriously suspect him until he does something really suspicious. Theoretically, Winty could also be the last wolf but I wouldn't put my money on that because lynching him would again be quite a shot in the dark.

I could have a look at stuff but I'm not sure if it's of any use. Nerwen and Agan have both been analysed before with little results. The wolves' interactions with everybody have been gone through (and not like I'd do something so big right now, I don't have the time). There seems little unused evidence, except maybe that the remaining wolf's kill own choices have been Nienna, something we don't know and Skippy... Off to do stuff and think about that a bit.

[Thinlómien]

Okay, what do the kill choices tell?

- Nienna wasn't suspected, Skip was a little. (But there were people who were suspected less, for example Brinn and me - why isn't one of us dead?)
- Both dead were gifteds. (Which could lead you to say that the wolf is a good gifted-spotter, but it's unlikely a wolf would intentionally kill the hunter.)
- Skip was believed to be the seer-dream target by some. (So could we assume the wolf believed that, either publicly or secretly and thus killed him in hopes of getting a cursed some villagers would definitely trust? Or did s/he notice his giftedness? Or did s/he have some other motive?)

Conclusions? Well, there really isn't much of a pattern. I think Nienna was killed merely for being rather no-trace and considered innocent by very many. As for Skip, I'm tempted to say he made a save the Night before last Night and the wolf killed him in hopes of getting the cursed. This is quite hopeful thinking, but I think trying to get the cursed is the most believeable motive the wolf could've had for killing him (unless s/he has a much better gifted radar than me, which is possible especially as his/hers would be far more activated than mine).

I would also be tempted to believe the wolf is a loudmouth who wants to keep similar kind of players around in order not to stand out. Or then it's someone - loudmouth or not - who knows that it's the easiest to let loudmouths argue with each other, which only leaves Winty as a newbie out, and given his votes have been rather random this far, it's difficult to try to conclude what kind of kills he'd have made. :rolleyes:

I'm off now to sign a tenancy agreement, go to the library and visit two museums, but I'll be back in some hours. Hopefully someone has posted something more by that time... :)

[Aganzir]

Alright... I have very little time to post today, just letting you know.

Did skip say anything obviously ranger looking yesterday? Because if he thwarted the wolf's kill the previous night, I don't think the wolf would've gone after anybody else last night without a very good reason... Which makes it maybe a bit more likely that either the cursed was turned, or the wolf missed a kill.

I really don't think we can afford to keep ignoring winty for long, though.
I'm bothered by his votes too. It doesn't take so much to contribute, really. But unlike you I think we can afford to ignore him if he doesn't do anything but vote and disappear. Lynching him now and finding him innocent would be bad for us, and it can always be argued whether a one post a day -wolf deserves to win.

I still find her suspicious and whatever her role may be, knowing it will at least ease my mind.
It's too late to lynch somebody because knowing their roles will ease your mind. We should get a lynch today.

And to be honest I'm somewhat worried about how some people seem to think "we lynch Nerwen first and if she isn't a wolf, then go for Agan." If Nerwen isn't a wolf, then it's way too easy for the wolf/wolves to get two innocents lynched without much effort of their own... Yes I still suspect Nerwen but I'm getting paranoid and don't want to concentrate on her alone.

Also, if Lottie is still alive, does this mean our wolf is still looking for the cursed?
Or maybe Lottie is a goner now that the ranger died - for all the wolf knows, the ranger might have protected the known innocent every second night.

I'm starting to feel uneasy about Brinn too... Nothing to back it up, she's just creepy.

we have two Days to get this right if the cursed is out there, three if it's just one wolf.
Yes but because of the retractions, I would say we have one day. If the cursed has been turned, it'll be 2-4 tomorrow, and both wolves might have their retractions left (everybody but Nerwen & I has theirs). And they can use them to lynch an innocent if opportunity arises.

As Agan was one of the top bandwaggons of yesterDay, this is strangely not committed.
I think he's been doing that with almost every lynch thus far (at least as far as I can recall), both with wolves and innocents... But I agree it's strange of Legate to be so non-committing. The Legate (both wolf & innocent) I'm used to is... different.

it's unlikely a wolf would intentionally kill the hunter
I don't think so. If the wolf wants to win, the hunter has to die sooner or later and the sooner, the better. Not sure if she really spotted Nienna though.

As for Skip, I'm tempted to say he made a save the Night before last Night and the wolf killed him in hopes of getting the cursed.
???
If he made a save, why didn't the wolf go for the one she had tried to kill? Which can obviously not be skip as the ranger couldn't protect himself.

There were some things I wanted to comment on yesterday but I don't have time for it now... Anyway Lommy's logic that my "horrible voting record isn't very convincing" is downright lousy, she KNOWS that if I was a wolf I would've done much better at spotting my fellows.

[Nerwen]

Did skip say anything obviously ranger looking yesterday? Because if he thwarted the wolf's kill the previous night, I don't think the wolf would've gone after anybody else last night without a very good reason... Which makes it maybe a bit more likely that either the cursed was turned, or the wolf missed a kill.

I can see a way Team Evil might have picked him out. Remember that strange argument he made yesterDay, (#809, #812 and #823) insisting that my switching my vote to Morsul was suspect? (His reasoning being that an innocent would not want to waste a retraction on saving herself(!))

There's some interesting lines (bolded) in two of those posts.

#812.
Originally Posted by Nerwen
Do you really not see the contradiction between these two paragraphs, Skip?
There's no direct contradiction. I said you'd likely survive even without the retraction.

If you are innocent I think it more probable that you'd take the risk of keeping the retraction and hoping none shows up to vote again. The consequences for the innocent team wouldn't have been that bad if this happened.

However, if you are a wolf, the consequences of getting lynched then would have been the greatest imaginable: the game would be instantly lost. There would be no comfort-zone to take chances.


#823.
Originally Posted by Brinniel
Not necessarily. I've seen innocents retract to save themselves before.
Yes but when when Nerwen retracted she was on 3 and Morsul on 5 with one person left to vote - you, who'd vote Nerwen. In other words, at that time it would take your vote plus another retraction from a third person to get her lynched. That could've happened, but wasn't very likely.

My point is, this risk to be lynched would seem more bearable for an innocent, because even if unfortune strikes, her team would still be in a good, if slightly worsened position. A wolf on the other hand would be desperate not to get lynched, because it would mean the End. Ergo, a wolf would imo have the strongest motivation to make that retraction move, without saying that an innocent couldn't do the same.

Now, leaving aside the fact that this is pretty silly– what good is having a retraction left when you're dead?:rolleyes:– it also ignores the fact that at that point there was one innocent who had a particularly strong motive for wanting to stay alive, and whose death would have been a blow to the village. In other words, his entire argument rests on the assumption that I'm not the Ranger. Who could be sure of that? The Ranger.

Wolves tend to notice that kind of thing, even when the village doesn't.

And to be honest I'm somewhat worried about how some people seem to think "we lynch Nerwen first and if she isn't a wolf, then go for Agan." If Nerwen isn't a wolf, then it's way too easy for the wolf/wolves to get two innocents lynched without much effort of their own... Yes I still suspect Nerwen but I'm getting paranoid and don't want to concentrate on her alone.
Mmn. Well, I really don't know about you either way, Agan– and I can see points against you, all right– but all the same I think it might be useful to see where this "one of them must be a wolf" meme comes from, and/or who has been helping it along.

I'm starting to feel uneasy about Brinn too... Nothing to back it up, she's just creepy.
Maybe the bit you already quoted?

Originally Posted by Lommy
As for Skip, I'm tempted to say he made a save the Night before last Night and the wolf killed him in hopes of getting the cursed.
???
If he made a save, why didn't the wolf go for the one she had tried to kill? Which can obviously not be skip as the ranger couldn't protect himself.

See my points above for how the wolf could have picked him as the Ranger... but Lommy's point still doesn't make sense.

By the way, it says in the rules that the Ranger can self-protect once, so in theory Skip could have saved himself on the night of no-kill. That seems unlikely, however.

Anyway Lommy's logic that my "horrible voting record isn't very convincing" is downright lousy, she KNOWS that if I was a wolf I would've done much better at spotting my fellows.

Yes, but since you've been a major exponent of the "good voting is really bad voting" school, wouldn't an Aganwolf want to vote badly?:p

EDIT:fixed quotes and formatting.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Alright, I'm here, I have other work to do now, but I'll try to be around. A few comments for now:

As for skip's death - maybe, since he was the Ranger, it might be worth to try to see if, by any slight chance, he did not say anything yesterDay which might have given his role away. For that matter, it would be also interesting to see if there isn't anything which would lighten us on whether he perchance did not have a save yesterDay. Although, as it's been said, it may be quite likely that he himself has not been informed whether he made a save or not. But if there was something, maybe that might have been a reason for the Wolf to target him? Can't think of anything else right now.

Otherwise, I think we are getting sort of into the stage of losing the focus. I am really starting to reconsider whether if we had lynched Nerwen three Days ago, this game would've been done already. Anyway, also, if the Cursed has not been turned already, the chances are growing and eventually it might be a rather crucial moment if that happens (especially now without the Ranger!).

As for Skip, I'm tempted to say he made a save the Night before last Night and the wolf killed him in hopes of getting the cursed. This is quite hopeful thinking, but I think trying to get the cursed is the most believeable motive the wolf could've had for killing him (unless s/he has a much better gifted radar than me, which is possible especially as his/hers would be far more activated than mine).

One more idea. Would the Seer see the Cursed as innocent? Because in that case, if there is this generally believed theory of skip being a dreamt-of innocent, it would be quite convinient for the Wolf to try to get him, even more in the case that later e.g. Greenie was revived and confirmed his dreamed innocence (and thus nobody would suspect him at all).

As for what's been said about winty, I think it comes down to this general dilemma of having somebody who is not around basically at all... I would really like to see him around more and not just popping in and out with voting for the person who's being currently lynched.

If he made a save, why didn't the wolf go for the one she had tried to kill? Which can obviously not be skip as the ranger couldn't protect himself.
Although now I see what Agan says, which is also true... hmm, well I guess then one more reason for me to look at whether skip said something yesterDay which could have looked Ranger-ish. Because in the case of the Ranger save, the Wolf only would know what happened (he/she would know if he/she sent the kill, and if there was no Cursed, then the only explanation left would be the Ranger save). It's possible that in such circumstances, the Wolf would go to eliminate the threat just to be on the safe side - but that assumes knowing who the Ranger is. (At least it is the one thing that makes sense to me.)

EDIT: okay, seems Nerwen actually had gone through some skip...

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

I can see a way Team Evil might have picked him out. Remember that strange argument he made yesterDay, (#809, #812 and #823) insisting that my switching my vote to Morsul was suspect? (His reasoning being that an innocent would not want to waste a retraction on saving herself(!))
(...)
Now, leaving aside the fact that this is pretty silly– what good is having a retraction left when you're dead?:rolleyes:– it also ignores the fact that at that point there was one innocent who had a particularly strong motive for wanting to stay alive, and whose death would have been a blow to the village. In other words, his entire argument rests on the assumption that I'm not the Ranger. Who could be sure of that? The Ranger.

Wolves tend to notice that kind of thing, even when the village doesn't.

Okay, this is an interesting observation. It seems a bit complicated to me, although now from the point of view of knowing that skip was the Ranger, it makes sense to see it like that. But I don't think it would be so obvious if you don't know who he is. Of course, it depends.

Now, of course, I could start wondering whether Nerwolf would be so bold to share such a reasoning with people so merrily if it was what she did, although especially in her case, I would not find it impossible to be bold like that. But anyway - in either case, it's an interesting theory (although still I think a bit far-fetched in general). I am going to look at skip a bit myself now.

[Nerwen]

Alright, can I just say that Brinn isn't the only one who is really bothered by winty's fly-by voting? :rolleyes:

Back with more a bit later, probably on Legate/Nerwen/Agan or thereabouts. I really don't think we can afford to keep ignoring winty for long, though.

Agreed about WW; he's getting rather worrisome.

But what are you two actually agreeing about? As I've said already said, it's kind of late in the game for a "just-in-case" lynch. This is probably the last Day we could lynch him to see what he is... and look how well that's been working.:rolleyes:

EDIT:X'd with two Legates.

[Nerwen]

–Now, why does that entire post of Legate's give me a bad feeling?

To answer my own question:

I think it's because, with 20/20 hindsight, that was quite an obvious slip on the part of our Ranger. My feeling is that an innocent's reaction would be to say, "Oh yes, that must be it," or at least "I wouldn't be surprised", whereas when you're a wolf and have eaten someone for what were to you perfectly sound and logical reason, the theories the villagers come up with often seem completely out the window. :D

With that in mind, Legate's last couple of posts could fit the pattern of a Legwolf going "Huh?" at the "outlandish" motives I'd ascribed to him, then realising it was actually in his best interests to play along.

Of course this is all extremely subjective and depends entirely on assumptions about how people would act, whether the Cursed has been found or not, etc. So I'm not claiming it's a particularly useful observation, or anything.

EDIT: IMPORTANT THIS POST WAS MADE AFTER LEGATE's AT #916. CANNOT EXPLAIN THIS!

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Okay, so looking through skip's posts, I am not really sure how much he could have been perceived as Ranger. There is however one thing not from yesterDay, but from the Day before, which maybe in connection to the thing mentioned by Nerwen could make him look Ranger-y:
Alright.

++Morsul

Better him than me (apart from what I've already said)!
And then the next Day:
Interesting to note is that Nerwen uses her retraction "to save herself" although this in fact was not as vital as I first thought. When Nerwen re-voted Morsul was on 5 votes while Nerwen was on 3 with only Brinn left to vote, so even without the retraction she'd likely have survived.
Which is sort of in contradiction, would-be showing that Skip applies different rules on himself than on others ("better him than me" vs. the latter). It's sort of questionable as there were still many people left to vote back then when skip voted, but then again, if he was leaving and not expecting to vote after that... but there is also the other thing Nerwen mentioned, and now actually seeing it it looks a bit more "there is something more important than being innocent"-knowing.

If you are innocent I think it more probable that you'd take the risk of keeping the retraction and hoping none shows up to vote again. The consequences for the innocent team wouldn't have been that bad if this happened.

However, if you are a wolf, the consequences of getting lynched then would have been the greatest imaginable: the game would be instantly lost. There would be no comfort-zone to take chances.
And, of course, speaking of that, his sort of general opposition for Agan's wasting-retractions theory is even a lot more reasonable now: he obviously had personal interest in keeping his retraction, as saving himself might have been crucial if necessary. On the other hand, yesterDay he used his retraction in circumstances where he wasn't threatened (he retracted from Nerwen to Agan), so one would think that would've spoken sort of against him being the Ranger. But who knows.

Anyway, it does not seem to me that there would be anything in his posts pointing towards the knowledge whether he made a save yesterNight or not. Well, I guess no can do.

So... I'll be off now for a moment, but will try to stay updated and then be back to contribute something more.

EDIT: x-ed with Nerwen

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Whether what I've suggested was, in fact the lupine motivation for killing Skip I couldn't say. However, I don't see why you call it "far fetched" or "complicated", Legate. As I said, the wolf would have been looking for slips like that.

Well, it just seemed to me far-fetched, but as you see, now that I have looked at skip's posts myself, I don't find it so far-fetched anymore. It was rather that it seemed like rather random comments, but now seeing that it was basically all that skip said yesterDay, I could very well imagine a Wolf spotting him, if he/she was paying attention to looking for the Ranger (which probably is a thing a Wolf would do).

[Aganzir]

Just popping in quickly between two classes...

I can see a way Team Evil might have picked him out.
Hmm I assume that's possible... But would it be enough to make them attack him instead of a sure kill, assuming he had protected somebody? After all he could've ignored the chance of your being a ranger just because he was a newbie, not because he was the ranger himself.

By the way, it says in the rules that the Ranger can self-protect once
Originally, it did. However in the updated rules it was changed. Thanks to me I guess, sorry skip! :p
1 Ranger: can’t protect the same person 2 Nights in a row, and cannot protect themselves.

Yes, but since you've been a major exponent of the "good voting is really bad voting" school, wouldn't an Aganwolf want to vote badly?
Haha I might try that some time I'm a wolf... :p But all in all it's generally too risky. And good voting is not always bad voting, it depends on the person and their reasons for voting a wolf. ;)

Would the Seer see the Cursed as innocent?
Yes, as it reads in the rules. And I suppose it's also possible skip was killed, well, for being innocent-looking enough.

whether Nerwolf would be so bold to share such a reasoning with people so merrily if it was what she did
Yeah she would... But she would do it as innocent too so it doesn't really tell us anything about her role.

Nerwen has been looking rather innocent today but I'm not convinced of her innocence... She if anybody could pull it off.

And yeah I don't want to push anybody, but if the Unicorn came out we'd have two known innocents and fewer potential wolves...

Okie dokie class time for me.

[Aganzir]

I will be here for the next half an hour or so... but it might well be the last you hear from me today because I'm seeing a friend after that and a) she might kill me if I tried to play werewolf and b) her net connection is extremely bad.

And just in case I don't get back I should probably vote soon, which I don't like at all.

Anybody around?

[Thinlómien]

As for Skip, well, I must admit my theory regarding the ranger save was stupid, I'm sorry I didn't think it through. :o :D The evidence indeed points to the cursed being turned, which is something I don't like at all. Or the wolf could've missed a kill (especially if it's Nerwen the infamous DL-misser :p).

As for her, I don't like her commentary on Skip's death at all. She even herself said a wolf would pay attention to such stuff, and that's exactly what she did. It just seems too far-fetchedly precise to be innocent.

And Agan, don't try to convince me you would certainly have a different voting record as a wolf. I don't doubt your ability to throw your fellows under the bus, but I also know that you are one to make risky moves - and not voting Sally or Glirdan would be one.

There's something eerie about Legate's few recent posts. He doesn't even bother to acknowledge the points against him, and he uses his time in looking at Skip's posts and basically saying nothing about them... Don't like it at all.

I'm here for a while now and I will come back for a short second later although I really should be sleeping then...

[Aganzir]

I'm afraid Brinn is a wolf and playing along with my suspicion of Nerwen.

I'm also afraid Nerwen is a wolf who has really pulled herself together and is now making up for appearing even the least bit suspicious earlier.

I'm afraid Lommy is the cursed. She kept looking very innocent and making sense to me up until yesterday. Maybe it has to do with the fact that she started suspecting me, with reasons I find silly. Or because she's been going along with "it's either Agan or Nerwen and if one is innocent I'll go after the other," which feels way too simple now that I'm having doubts aboutNerwen myself.

And I'm afraid Shasta is a wolf slipping under everybody's radar. Gosh that would be beautiful...

Legate writes too long paragraphs which means his posts aren't nice to read! And yes before you ask I'm worried about him too, mainly because he feels much sloppier and, frankly, dumber than I remember him to be. If there were any weird new roles I'd be sure he had one (and no Unicorn doesn't count).

Wow that was pretty drastic... now I really wonder... (not about Skip though!)
What were you wondering?

Nerwen, why don't you suspect me? This is a weird question, I know, but I'm curious.

Garr I don't have time the day time is needed...

[Thinlómien]

What were you wondering?Whether I should use the opportunity and vote you or stick to my planned vote of Nerwen. Obviously, I made the wrong choice - we could've got Nerwen lynched yesterDay and either the game would be over or we'd be one wolf down or we at least wouldn't need to waste a third Day in a row wondering about her (I know we are not forced to do it but at least I'm just stuck with it until she dies or starts seeming very innocent for some reason).

[Aganzir]

And Agan, don't try to convince me you would certainly have a different voting record as a wolf. I don't doubt your ability to throw your fellows under the bus, but I also know that you are one to make risky moves - and not voting Sally or Glirdan would be one.
I know there's no use trying, you'll see when I die or the game is over, but you can ask yourself anyway why Aganwolf would incriminate herself by not suspecting sally and Glirdan, of all people.

It's just that you suspect me for something Aganwolf is very unlikely to do, saying "she could be appearing dumb on purpose to make herself look more innocent," so basically you've decided I'm suspicious and how I act doesn't matter in the least because either way you could accuse me. And that's either stupid or a very convenient wolf plan.

[Aganzir]

I'm trying to decide whether I should stick with my earlier suspicions (I have bad experiences of letting go of pursuing a wolf because they began to look more innocent) or vote for somebody who I haven't been suspicious of before (mainly Lommy but also Legate & Brinn, to an extent)...

Heck this is so frustrating.

As for winty, I think it's better to ignore him, regardless of his role, until he starts to post more. And if somebody tries to lynch him today "just to be on the safe side," they are either wolves or stupid. Because we just can't afford to check people out, at least as long as we don't know if there's one or two wolves.

[Thinlómien]

I wouldn't say dumb. What's dumb about helping your fellows? I know not wolf-on-wolfing may be regarded dumb by some, but I personally disagree. The times I have won as a wolf were the ones when me and my fellows stuck together, not when we voted each other. The profits of wolf-on-wolfing are generally overestimated - look at Nerwen here, half the village suspects her even though she voted all the known wolves. Of course, some wolf-on-wolf votes look very innocent, but they're the ones that are so risky 90% wolves wouldn't make them.

And it's not just that your voting record is eyeborw-raising but what you yourself said: a to-die Nog wolf could/would have made sure his fellow looks good and votes him, and you happen to be one of the few living players whose first vote on a wolf was on that said Day.

Lastly, with maybe the exception of Legate, we only have people whose voting record is quite off (you, Shasta) or very precise (me, Nerwen, Brinn) and I've got to suspect somebody. (Winty not included 'cos I don't remember his votes. :rolleyes: ) You just happen to creep me out, and I was trying to think if Aganwolf would've voted like you have, and I concluded that she could have.

Although, if it helps, your obvious dislike of people referring to your not very wolf-full voting record kind of speaks for your innocence. :p

Gotta run as soon as I finish eating! I'll be back.


edit: xed with Agan

[Thinlómien]

As for winty, I think it's better to ignore him, regardless of his role, until he starts to post more. And if somebody tries to lynch him today "just to be on the safe side," they are either wolves or stupid. Because we just can't afford to check people out, at least as long as we don't know if there's one or two wolves.Totally agreed, btw...

[Aganzir]

The times I have won as a wolf were the ones when me and my fellows stuck together, not when we voted each other.
And the games I've won as a wolf were those in which I voted for all of my fellows who were lynched... I have acted to save a fellow from the gallows once, and that was when we were one day away from victory.

Although, if it helps, your obvious dislike of people referring to your not very wolf-full voting record kind of speaks for your innocence. :p
Yeah I know I've played badly but do you have to keep flaunting it at me? :rolleyes::p I would be better as a wolf.

Anyway I should go now.

++Nerwen

Because at least I have a case against her instead of a vague bad feeling. But I'm by no means convinced, not only because she has looked better of late but because some others have started to worry me too. I might be back later but I wouldn't count on it...

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

There's something eerie about Legate's few recent posts. He doesn't even bother to acknowledge the points against him, and he uses his time in looking at Skip's posts and basically saying nothing about them... Don't like it at all.
Well I wanted to post just my initial thoughts at the moment and then after doing some work, and hopefully also when others have posted too, post more. Anyway, as for points against me, there has been only very general "he is suspicious" by Loslote with no particular evidence to respond to or the "evidence" is so subjective that it can be hardly commented on. That said, Lottie, that's basically what I can say to your case - whereas in any case I would warn you (although maybe it should be somebody else to tell you so as you might not take me seriously after building the case) not to get too enthusiastic about pursuing some lynch just because you suddenly get a brilliant idea - we've seen this many times.

Okay, and actually looking back, only now have I noticed this post of Nerwen's:

To answer my own question:

I think it's because, with 20/20 hindsight, that was quite an obvious slip on the part of our Ranger. My feeling is that an innocent's reaction would be to say, "Oh yes, that must be it," or at least "I wouldn't be surprised", whereas when you're a wolf and have eaten someone for what were to you perfectly sound and logical reason, the theories the villagers come up with often seem completely out the window. :D

With that in mind, Legate's last couple of posts could fit the pattern of a Legwolf going "Huh?" at the "outlandish" motives I'd ascribed to him, then realising it was actually in his best interests to play along.

Of course this is all extremely subjective and depends entirely on assumptions about how people would act, whether the Cursed has been found or not, etc. So I'm not claiming it's a particularly useful observation, or anything.

EDIT: IMPORTANT THIS POST WAS MADE AFTER LEGATE's AT #916. CANNOT EXPLAIN THIS!

Indeed! As I didn't see this post either, so I assume it had to be ABOVE my post. I am pretty certain though that when I was quoting Nerwen (my 917 below), there has been only my post 916 and her post which I am quoting in there... which actually... HEY? WHERE IS IT??? Where did it go?? THAT DOES NOT MAKE ANY SENSE!

Did you edit your post, Nerwen????? Or what???? (And for that matter, I haven't seen her current 914 either! None of the two posts up there, 914 or 915! And where did that one I quoted go???)

Eurgh, totally weird. But I have basically replied to this - why I thought it farfetched and then after reviewing it not - (in the post where I quoted Nerwen's original 914 question which later disappeared), so there is no reason to start about that again.

EDIT: x-ed with Agan

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

I have once again somewhat double-feeling about Agan from the last posts. Generally, I think it looks in some way innocent, in the way she acts, like that she will be subtly rousing more suspicion against Lommy or something had she been a Wolf. On the other hand, maybe she's just sort of "in defense" and making a "passive resistence" (in such a case, however, one would wonder what she would do, as a Wolf, if Nerwen was lynched and innocent. On the other hand, she might probably find another lynch target). Okay, the post where she sort of "half-joke" (well, it's not like a joke, but it is in a bit of a light tone, it seems to me) suspects practically everybody, could be seen as a basis for eventually developing a serious suspicion for somebody of those listed later, but it's a bit too obvious or bold, sort of... on the other hand, okay, at least the second word in connection to Aganzir does not help much. But basically... okay, maybe if I think about the kills... I wonder whether Aganwolf wouldn't be a bit more daring in killing people; on the other hand, if there have been other packmembers until quite recently and now maybe... hmm, well, maybe if she was just looking for the Cursed among the quieter people? (And possibly for Ranger toNight, which could be related to her dismissing that idea now - although again, not sure if it will be of much good to her, wouldn't it be better just to stay put?)

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Did you edit your post, Nerwen????? Or what???? (And for that matter, I haven't seen her current 914 either! None of the two posts up there, 914 or 915! And where did that one I quoted go???)

By the way, note - it occured to me: didn't you by any chance edit your post instead of quoting mine or instead of posting a new one or something like that... because that's the only logical explanation I can come up with (like, that would explain why your post is missing there - you have "overwritten" it with this one, which would explain why it is before, and not after my post).

Whatever... is anybody else around?

[Nerwen]

Nerwen, why don't you suspect me? This is a weird question, I know, but I'm curious.

I didn't say I don't suspect you. I'm just not convinced you're a wolf– certainly not enough to find this (http://www.forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=628022&postcount=866) post of Lommy's or this (http://www.forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=628032&postcount=874) all that reassuring.

Now, let me present

NERWEN'S INFALLIBLE CAST-IRON ARGUMENTS FOR WHY EVERYONE IS A WOLF.

In no particular order:

Aganzir– I don't see what Aganwolf would have to gain by pursuing me to the extent she has, (unless she's trying to revive the old "witch-hunt" technique, but that would be foolhardy). Still, not only does she have a bad voting record, she has the gall to try and use that as evidence for her innocence. I mean, really.

Legate– Smooth to the point of being slippery (as always, mind you), puts up what might be subtle defences of all three known wolves, seems very opportunistic in his voting and suspicions.

Lommy– I don't really suspect her that much at all. However she's been the one pushing the idea that either Agan or I must be a wolf, and therefore that the innocence of one would prove the guilt of the other. Which I don't think follows at all, and could give the wolves a free lynch.

Brinn– voting record almost eerily good, (yes, I know, the pot addresses the kettle) possible subtle defence of Glirdan. Yeah, whatever, I already looked at her a couple of Days ago and she came up "inconclusive". Now, however, I'm starting to find her actually creepy, mainly because of this, toDay:
Originally Posted by Brinniel
Can we please lynch Nerwen toDay? I still find her suspicious and whatever her role may be, knowing it will at least ease my mind. Okay, I promise to try looking at others too to see if anyone else turns up more suspicious, but I really don't have much time toDay.
My bolding. This late in the game, with an unknown number of wolves still around, lynching me is worth it just to set her poor little mind at rest– even if I turn out innocent, it seems ("whatever her role"). Not good.
Also, picks up on the "one of them must be a wolf" meme. (http://www.forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=628058&postcount=894)

Shasta– I'm not getting any bad vibes from him. However, if he's innocent his famous clairvoyant powers must be taking the week off. Meanwhile, the Night-kills have been awfully effective– almost like we're dealing with a psychic wolf...:eek:

wintywinty– Dead silence... more dead silence... even more dead silence... then turns up just before DL and votes "++theleadingcandidate. Yeah, I've suspected him all along. Or is it her?"

Finally, just for the heck of it–

Lottie– Well, it would be bloody hilarious if it turned out she was a wolf all the time and there was a secret rule gagging the remaining Shirriff. I'd laugh. Really, I would.:smokin:

EDIT:X'd since Agan's vote-post.

[Nerwen]

Indeed! As I didn't see this post either, so I assume it had to be ABOVE my post. I am pretty certain though that when I was quoting Nerwen (my 917 below), there has been only my post 916 and her post which I am quoting in there... which actually... HEY? WHERE IS IT??? Where did it go?? THAT DOES NOT MAKE ANY SENSE!

Did you edit your post, Nerwen????? Or what???? (And for that matter, I haven't seen her current 914 either! None of the two posts up there, 914 or 915! And where did that one I quoted go???)

No, I didn't edit my post (except to make a note of what had happened). I just replied to yours as usual.

I have met this phenomenon of posts suddenly appearing in the wrong place before, on other sites, but this is the first time I've seen it here.

EDIT: punctuation.

[Nerwen]

Oh, and one of my posts has indeed disappeared– didn't notice before. I quoted from it too. The only thing I can think of is that I might have accidentally hit "delete" in the process– but wouldn't that be marked as a deleted post?

The site went down for a while not long after that– may have something to do with it.

EDIT:Added remark.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Anyway Lommy's logic that my "horrible voting record isn't very convincing" is downright lousy, she KNOWS that if I was a wolf I would've done much better at spotting my fellows.

I don't like that you're using this as proof of your innocence, Agan, especially since it's something that can't be proven.

But what are you two actually agreeing about? As I've said already said, it's kind of late in the game for a "just-in-case" lynch. This is probably the last Day we could lynch him to see what he is... and look how well that's been working.

My point was that, if winty is the last wolf, and wins, we can say "oh he didn't deserve to win" all we like, but it doesn't change the facts. Quite simply it bothers me that all he's been doing is bandwagoning while the rest of us argue amongst ourselves, and I think if we're ever going to do anything about him, we should do it soon. I disagree completely with Lommy and Agan in that regard.

Which is sort of in contradiction, would-be showing that Skip applies different rules on himself than on others ("better him than me" vs. the latter).

Yes, but in the situation you're describing, Skip's life actually was in danger, where Nerwen wasn't in quite as dire straits, so... I'm not sure where you're going with this.

Well, it just seemed to me far-fetched, but as you see, now that I have looked at skip's posts myself, I don't find it so far-fetched anymore.

Which could be a Wolf of Amon Lanc's way of backtracking after Nerwen put up too much evidence to counter? Hm.

Haha I might try that some time I'm a wolf... But all in all it's generally too risky.

...Which could be an Aganwolf's way of hanging on to her "I wouldn't be so stupid" argument. Argh.

As for her, I don't like her commentary on Skip's death at all. She even herself said a wolf would pay attention to such stuff, and that's exactly what she did. It just seems too far-fetchedly precise to be innocent.

I actually sort of agree with this comment, too. It's almost as if Nerwolf is trying to prove her innocence by using her own wolfish reasoning. :rolleyes:

As for winty, I think it's better to ignore him, regardless of his role, until he starts to post more. And if somebody tries to lynch him today "just to be on the safe side," they are either wolves or stupid. Because we just can't afford to check people out, at least as long as we don't know if there's one or two wolves.

Like I already said, I disagree totally with this. Wait... I wonder how an Aganwolf/wintyCursed scenario would play out? I suppose Lommy could fit there too, instead of Agan, based on wanting to keep winty in the game... but that could just be because we disagree on what to do about him. :smokin:

[Shastanis Althreduin]

To sum up... after looking at all of them, Nerwen, Legate, and Agan all have points against them... and I'm honestly not sure which are bigger! But I'd like to reiterate that I would support a winty lynch today - if he's innocent he's at most unhelpful and at least distracting, and if he's a wolf he's flying totally under the radar and going with the majority, which is a pattern I've seen from him all game.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Aganzir– I don't see what Aganwolf would have to gain by pursuing me to the extent she has, (unless she's trying to revive the old "witch-hunt" technique, but that would be foolhardy).
Are you perchance missing a word there or something? ("she has...?")

Brinn– voting record almost eerily good, (yes, I know, the pot addresses the kettle) possible subtle defence of Glirdan. Yeah, whatever, I already looked at her a couple of Days ago and she came up "inconclusive". Now, however, I'm starting to find her actually creepy, mainly because of this, toDay:

My bolding. This late in the game, with an unknown number of wolves still around, lynching me is worth it just to set her poor little mind at rest– even if I turn out innocent, it seems ("whatever her role"). Not good.
Also, picks up on the "one of them must be a wolf" meme. (http://www.forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=628058&postcount=894)
Definitely agreed that lynching somebody "just for the sake of it" is not a good idea, however, I see it that way that she just wants to lynch you AND if you are not a Wolf, she would not pity that so much - which is somewhat understandable thinking. However, certainly we should not lynch somebody for the peace of mind - we had such a liberty more or less in the last few Days, but now it is getting somewhat more dense again.

Speaking of Brinn, I have been thinking her mostly innocent before, so I am starting to think whether she could not have been slipping under my radar now, but maybe it will be best to wait for her to post and follow her to get more information about her.

In any case, this post of Nerwen's does not give me much of a good impression in general - it's rather, well, ineffective (in the sense: what is it good for?). My initial thought was being reminded of the desperate Wolves who make their last post before dying where they accuse everyone (see Sally's post before her death - basically the same, except for the famous line "Inzil is innocent, I just know it" or stuff like that). Basically this kind of mentality could be just half-resignation (which sounds almost incredible in relation to Nerwen) or just a post with no real value, making oneself a wide range of suspicion (like, right now Nerwen could vote anybody), or something like that.

Oh, and one of my posts has indeed disappeared– didn't notice before. I quoted from it too. The only thing I can think of is that I might have accidentally hit "delete" in the process– but wouldn't that be marked as a deleted post?

The site went down for a while not long after that– may have something to do with it.

EDIT:Added remark.
Okay, whatever, that might be it.

EDIT: x-ed with two Shastas

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Yes, but in the situation you're describing, Skip's life actually was in danger, where Nerwen wasn't in quite as dire straits, so... I'm not sure where you're going with this.
Well, but that does not matter so much, the point is psychological. If a Wolf saw these and compared it, it might have been a signal giving him/her the idea "Ha! A special role afraid for his life!" Of course it does not have to be so, but I can imagine it as a possibility. Anyway, we are not going to learn for sure anyway, it was just a possible explanation.

To sum up... after looking at all of them, Nerwen, Legate, and Agan all have points against them... and I'm honestly not sure which are bigger! But I'd like to reiterate that I would support a winty lynch today - if he's innocent he's at most unhelpful and at least distracting, and if he's a wolf he's flying totally under the radar and going with the majority, which is a pattern I've seen from him all game.

Well there is still the thing that he might not just show up to vote and be modfired or something... while it's all possible that he might be an under-the-radar Wolf, right now at least from my part I will focus on those who are around, and for whom there are actually some grounds to suspect (whereas for WW there is merely his popping up and voting, which, in a way, would be enough, but then again, it's rather random too). And yes, WW does not deserve to win if he's just popping in and voting, so well... if it comes down to three people or something, and he is one of them, then it might be a hard decision, but...

Nay, right now, I am starting to grow worried of Agan a bit, especially still bearing in mind her voting list. And Nerwen's last posts have unnerved me too. Shasta has been posting generally rather unsuspiciously recently, but that might be just a good way of slipping unnoticed.

If I were to say, I'd assume the Wolf being somewhere there - or it being Winty. There is still the sort of unanswered question in the back of my head about Nerwen, she didn't look as suspicious to me yesterDay but now she again started to. It would be sort of facepalm-thing if she was the Wolf and remained alive until the last Day just because of the overturned lynch a few Days ago.

[Nerwen]

My point was that, if winty is the last wolf, and wins, we can say "oh he didn't deserve to win" all we like, but it doesn't change the facts. Quite simply it bothers me that all he's been doing is bandwagoning while the rest of us argue amongst ourselves, and I think if we're ever going to do anything about him, we should do it soon. I disagree completely with Lommy and Agan in that regard.
I know,and I don't like it either– if he's a wolf it's definitely borderline-cheating– but if we lynch him, I think it pretty much has to be toDay. And that would make him the third person in a row we've lynched more out of curiosity than anything.

Also, do the Night-kills really seem like the work of a clueless newbie to you? I'd guess that if winty is a wolf, we've got two. (Unless he's either very lucky, or just playing dumb.)


Yes, but in the situation you're describing, Skip's life actually was in danger, where Nerwen wasn't in quite as dire straits, so... I'm not sure where you're going with this.

No, actually my life was in danger at that point.

Are you perchance missing a word there or something? ("she has...?")

No. What I mean is, "pursuing me to the the extent that she has". Does that make sense to you now?

In any case, this post of Nerwen's does not give me much of a good impression in general - it's rather, well, ineffective (in the sense: what is it good for?). My initial thought was being reminded of the desperate Wolves who make their last post before dying where they accuse everyone (see Sally's post before her death - basically the same, except for the famous line "Inzil is innocent, I just know it" or stuff like that).

You meanthis post? (http://www.forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=627076&postcount=345) Where Sally is at pains to say basically nothing about anyone? (Except Zil.)

No, Legate it's not at all like that. Sally was a wolf who was very likely trying to look like the Seer. I'm an innocent who is trying to sort things out for myself by listing the points against each player. Not bad points, either, I think.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

No, actually my life was in danger at that point.

I wasn't disputing that, but you dying at that point would have required a concerted effort by three different people (I think), and Skip was already tied for the lead at the time he voted (again, if I'm wrong, correct me :p).

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

No. What I mean is, "pursuing me to the the extent that she has". Does that make sense to you now?
Ah, okay. Now I get it.

You meanthis post? (http://www.forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=627076&postcount=345) Where Sally is at pains to say basically nothing about anyone? (Except Zil.)

No, Legate it's not at all like that. Sally was a wolf who was very likely trying to look like the Seer. I'm an innocent who is trying to sort things out for myself by listing the points against each player. Not bad points, either, I think.

Okay, point taken. But even with that Sally's posts, Wolves do things like that in general (and often in far subtler ways, of course).

That said, the fact that you don't want to lynch ww, even though it might be a possible candidate with some support, makes you again look better in my eyes... unless you two are comrades now... I would expect a Wolf to be a lot more open to a possible lynch, especially if under suspicion.

[Brinniel]

I think you guys are misunderstanding my lynching Nerwen to "ease my mind" comment. I don't want to lynch her out of curiousity. I am suspicious of her and have reasons to be. Lately some of Nerwen's behaviour has made me to slightly doubt my suspicion, but then again Nerwen can be a very clever wolf...she has won as a lone wolf before and looked completely innocent up until the end. If I allow her not-so-suspicious behaviour convince me not to vote her, then I'm afraid we'll later find out she is a wolf and lose because I didn't vote her. I would never forgive myself...and would probably end up smashing my head against the wall until it explodes. If Nerwen is lynched and turns out innocent, yeah that really sucks, but I wouldn't be killing myself over voting her because I did, after all, find her wolfish.

Btw, I will not support a winty lynch. I'm not saying he can't be a wolf, but it seems much more unlikely, and I do not want another Day with an easy lynch that could get us nowhere. If we lynch winty and he's innocent, then we've basically lost the game because we'll be in the same position toMorrow as we are toDay.

I have class in ten minutes and don't have much time to say more. I won't be back until less than an hour before deadline, so I'm afraid you won't be hearing a lot from me. I do wish I could look at everyone better because I'm feeling paranoid as of late, but I just don't have the time.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

I think I might vote and go soon. I have been waking up early today and I'm already getting slightly tired. If I knew when exactly is Lommy going to return, I would wait at least for her or somebody to post before I go to sleep, but this way I might just call it off...

After recent posts of Nerwen, I will be even more inclined to vote Agan than her, because Agan now seems like a more likely Wolf to me. She has just reached the limit of my suspicions and she behaves especially toDay a bit more careful than I think she has before. (It might be that it seems to me because the arguing has been reduced, but still it's there.) Of course especially for a lonely Aganwolf or an Aganwolf with a well-hidden packmate it will be rather easy and merry environment to move in, I am sure. She also seems to be opening herself slowly to new things and in general sort of having the back door (for the case if Nerwen is lynched and innocent?), like in the post where she lists some people, or here:

I'm trying to decide whether I should stick with my earlier suspicions (I have bad experiences of letting go of pursuing a wolf because they began to look more innocent) or vote for somebody who I haven't been suspicious of before (mainly Lommy but also Legate & Brinn, to an extent)...

Heck this is so frustrating.

That "frustrating" part also makes me wonder if it's genuine. I am just now getting this creepy picture of Aganwolf into my head. In either case, even if we have a Cursed, I find it extremely unlikely that both of Aganzir and Nerwen are Wolves. I would right now say that Agan is a bit, little tiny bit, higher than Nerwen - probably by that one post made by Nerwen a while ago - in my suspicions.

Of course I can sympathise with Brinn's feelings concerning having Nerwen haunting the place around, however, if this was the last Day and I was to decide right now, like "put your bets on one person", then I would say Agan.

Okay. Let me think about it for a while yet, let's see if anybody posts or posted, and then I will just vote. Urgh.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Okay. Nobody seems to be around... and if I am to be decisive... let it be so.

++Aganzir

I am really getting sleepy, so... good night, folks. And let's hope we do it right this time and celebrate after this.

[Aganzir]

I made it here after all but I'm still at my friend's place and can't hang around here for long.

My point was that, if winty is the last wolf, and wins, we can say "oh he didn't deserve to win" all we like, but it doesn't change the facts.
And if he's lynched an innocent, the last wolf/wolves are a step closer to victory because his death doesn't really reveal anything about anyone. At least in so far as I can see. And if he is innocent and the wolves manage to lynch him today and win tomorrow, well, good job.

If I knew when exactly is Lommy going to return,
She's outside of the apartment, busy being a game master. So I assume it's going to take her at least an hour to get home, maybe more.

she behaves especially toDay a bit more careful than I think she has before.
Because I've been far busier today than on any other day perchance?

My selfish part would love to be lynched (or night-killed, for that matter). At least I wouldn't have to worry about who to lynch tomorrow. But I suppose it's sort of my duty to stay alive for now... being innocent and all! :rolleyes:
You are of course free to lynch me, but I doubt it will reveal much because my innocence doesn't mean that Nerwen must be a wolf or anything...

Oh and now I know why I'm feeling uneasy about Brinn. She looks too good and sensible.

[Aganzir]

And let's hope we do it right this time and celebrate after this.
That's an awfully forced-looking, creepy comment. And it has nothing to do with the fact that you voted for me.

[Thinlómien]

I'm here, just a few comments, check if I cross-posted and then vote.

Lommy– I don't really suspect her that much at all. However she's been the one pushing the idea that either Agan or I must be a wolf, and therefore that the innocence of one would prove the guilt of the other. Which I don't think follows at all, and could give the wolves a free lynch.I don't claim either of you has to be a wolf, or that one being innocent proves the other one must be guilty. Not at all. I just personally suspect you two the most by far and can't quite decide which one of you more, so if one of you dies, I will be (most likely) next trying my other top suspect. Does that make sense?

Wait... I wonder how an Aganwolf/wintyCursed scenario would play out? I suppose Lommy could fit there too, instead of Agan, based on wanting to keep winty in the game... but that could just be because we disagree on what to do about him.Well, I know you can't take my word for it, but if I was Winty's fellow, I would feel like cheating if I was telling people to ignore him because of his small amount of participation.

And as for him, I agree with Brinn - we can't really afford lynching him right now, or we will be more or less in the same point as in the beginning of this Day and I also predict several players will feel like giving up. I know Winty can be a wolf and can be slipping under everybody's radar, but like somebody said about lynching Nerwen, this is not really the point when we can lynch people just to be on the safe side, especially as we already did that yesterDay with Mira.

That said, the fact that you don't want to lynch ww, even though it might be a possible candidate with some support, makes you again look better in my eyes... unless you two are comrades now... I would expect a Wolf to be a lot more open to a possible lynch, especially if under suspicion.That's really no proof, because even if she didn't say she suspected Winty, she could vote him later to save herself and look no worse because of that (although this game starts to be in the point where innocent Nerwen might do the village a favour by going felagund :rolleyes: ...)

[Thinlómien]

++NERWEN

remains my top suspect. We had seriously better get her lynched this time around, although we will undoubtedly feel stupid whatever she turns out to be.

Aganzir I'm still torn about. My feelings about her go like a rollercoaster, I can't quite make up my mind. And yes, I will really look at her more closely if Nerwen turns out innocent. (Or maybe even if she turns out guilty and the game continues because somehow a Nerwolf + Agan-cursed scenario doesn't sound as unlikely as you could fathom... :rolleyes: )

Legate feels a bit more innocent now, although if we lynch Nerwen toDay and she turns out innocent, I'd look at him and how he smoothly backed away instead of bloodying his pretty little hands. But generally he seems honest and sort of genuinely confusedly wishy-washyish. I'm not too worries - for now.

I believe I have said enough about Winty. I also hope he comes around and posts more. Now that the amount of participants and posts has dropped substantially, maybe he'll find it easier.

Lastly, I still think Brinn and Shasta innocent. I don't think a wolf-Brinn would so ruthlessly have voted all her fellows and her tone seems genuine. Like I've said before, I can't really see Shasta as fellows with Sally or Nogrod, so I feel pretty safe in assuming him innocent, especially as he seems innocent generally too (although we do disagree on everything :p).

That's all from me toDay, it'll be 2am here soon and I have to wake up at 7... eww.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Btw, I will not support a winty lynch. I'm not saying he can't be a wolf, but it seems much more unlikely, and I do not want another Day with an easy lynch that could get us nowhere. If we lynch winty and he's innocent, then we've basically lost the game because we'll be in the same position toMorrow as we are toDay.


Why is it "much more unlikely", Brinn?

And Lommy, I personally thought there were points against Mira yesterday - I don't think her lynch was "just in case". Winty's probably would be, but what if he is the wolf? :eek: That's what I'm trying to get you guys to see.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Alright, I have to leave for a meeting. I may be back, but then I may not, I don't have any idea how long it's going to last.

With no one willing to vote Legate, apparently, my choices are down to Agan or Nerwen... and I honestly haven't seen that great of a defense from Agan.

++Aganzir

[Nerwen]

Why is it "much more unlikely", Brinn?

And Lommy, I personally thought there were points against Mira yesterday - I don't think her lynch was "just in case". Winty's probably would be, but what if he is the wolf? :eek: That's what I'm trying to get you guys to see.

No, I do see it, and in the end I'd rather lynch winty to see what he is, than be lynched myself to see what I am.:rolleyes:

However, the trouble is that I'm close to 100% sure there's a wolf (or maybe two, who knows?) in the group Legate, Lommy, Agan and Brinn. (Yes, I'm definitely including Lommy now– look at the opportunism of her vote-post there.) The reasoning is simple: I don't see how I could find myself headed for the gallows again if there wasn't a fair bit of wolfish string-pulling going on.

I mean, what exactly am I supposed to have done? Not even they can tell you, not really.

I actually am reminded of the "witch-hunt" tactic– you know, how wolves used to openly target an innocent, demanding "explanations" for literally everything he said, no matter how trivial, then claiming his reaction was "defensive" and "clearly wolfish"? Hasn't been used much lately, mainly because people caught on that pretty much only wolves did it. But I was the one who pointed out that wolf-tactics are cyclic. But then it could as easily be Lommy or Legate leading from behind.

EDIT:X'd with Shasta.
EDIT2:typo.

[Loslote]

Alright, I have to leave for a meeting. I may be back, but then I may not, I don't have any idea how long it's going to last.

With no one willing to vote Legate, apparently, my choices are down to Agan or Nerwen... and I honestly haven't seen that great of a defense from Agan.

[*highlight]++Aganzir[/highlight*]

If you get back in time, and if you have your retractable still, I'm aboslutely willing to vote Legate, and absolutely NOT willing to vote Agan.

[wilwarin538]

Agan -> Nerwen
Legate -> Agan
Lommy -> Nerwen (2)
Shasta -> Agan (2)

[Loslote]

Tied at two apiece? This reminds me of yesterDay, and not in a good way. :rolleyes:

That said...

++Legate

with potential retraction if needed, for posting a lot without actually saying much of anything, and for subtly defending the wolves who were going to be lynched with out committing, and for general non-commiting behavior.

[wintywinty]

People have wondered as to why I am so quiet and show up to only make a few posts and then vote. I am very busy, I participate in two after-school activities, plus school (I'm in a rigorous IB program, where I have homework everyday.) I have just enough time to get home, read all the posts that have happened in the past day, decide who makes the best arguments against who, and by that time there's less than 10 or 15 minutes left before I must vote. I'd like to continue playing the game, but I do not have the time to post much. Besides yesterday, I think I have contributed with a few posts everyday. Today, It seems to me as if Agan, Lommy, and Brinniel seem very innocent. I am not sure about Nerwen, and Shasta and Legate seem the most suspicious to me. By the way, I am innocent, so voting me would waste a lynching for the village.

[Brinniel]

I have less time than expected so I really will have to vote soon.

Ugh, what's so frustrating is that you guys happened to lynch two of the people I found most innocent of the bunch. If we had lynched Nerwen already, then I wouldn't still be stuck on her (and it's bad that I am because I should look at others too). Even if Agan was lynched yesterDay, I would've preferred that over Mira because at least her death would provide some more information, regardless of role.

If winty somehow gets lynched and turns out innocent, I will have to smack anyone responsible...hard. I would prefer just about anyone else over him because there are so many other players whose death would reveal more than winty's.

Legate is someone I'm growing increasingly worried about, but I need to look at him better before throwing any real suspicion at him. Agan and Lommy too, to a lesser extent. I don't think Lommy's the fourth wolf, but if the cursed has indeed been turned, then I think there's a chance she could be just that. Again, I don't have time to do any analysing, so I'd rather lynch Nerwen now, so I don't have to worry about the others unless she's actually innocent, or if she is a wolf but the cursed is still out there (unless she's the cursed, then vice versa).

[Nerwen]

If you get back in time, and if you have your retractable still, I'm aboslutely willing to vote Legate, and absolutely NOT willing to vote Agan.

I'm willing to vote either of them, and not just to save myself– see my last post.

However– why are you so sure Agan is innocent, Lottie?

EDIT:X'd with Brinn and wintywinty

[Brinniel]

People have wondered as to why I am so quiet and show up to only make a few posts and then vote. I am very busy, I participate in two after-school activities, plus school (I'm in a rigorous IB program, where I have homework everyday.) I have just enough time to get home, read all the posts that have happened in the past day, decide who makes the best arguments against who, and by that time there's less than 10 or 15 minutes left before I must vote. I'd like to continue playing the game, but I do not have the time to post much. Besides yesterday, I think I have contributed with a few posts everyday. Today, It seems to me as if Agan, Lommy, and Brinniel seem very innocent. I am not sure about Nerwen, and Shasta and Legate seem the most suspicious to me. By the way, I am innocent, so voting me would waste a lynching for the village.
That's perfectly understandable, as a lot of us are very busy around here. But perhaps you should mention that in the admin thread so people don't suspect you for not being around much.

P.S. This post from winty looks genuine to me.

[Loslote]

I'm willing to vote either of them, and not just to save myself– see my last post.

However– why are you so sure Agan is innocent, Lottie?

She's acted genuinely frustrated and innocent, plus she hasn't acted suspiciously at all. She makes good points and contributes helpfully to the village. Even if I wasn't so sure I wouldn't want her dead. Agan, Brinn, and Shasta are the three people I trust most right now. The rest of you I'm not so sure about. ;)

[Nerwen]

P.S. This post from winty looks genuine to me.

Agreed.

She's acted genuinely frustrated and innocent, plus she hasn't acted suspiciously at all.

Really? May I refer you to her voting record?:rolleyes: But actually I don't find that very suspicious in itself– I'm not so keen, though, on the way she keeps insisting it's actually proof of innocence. Thing is, Agan is pretty hard to read, for the opposite reason to Legate or Brinn– she's a very aggressive player who tends to go all out to lynch people, whatever her role.

[Loslote]

Really? May I refer you to her voting record?:rolleyes: But actually I don't find that very suspicious in itself– I'm not so keen, though, on the way she keeps insisting it's actually proof of innocence. Thing is, Agan is pretty hard to read, for the opposite reason to Legate or Brinn– she's a very aggressive player who tends to go all out to lynch people, whatever her role.

I don't think that's suspicious. And she's not really insisting, just defending herself. People bring it up; they say it's susicious; she explains why it's not. I don't have a problem with this.

[wintywinty]

Wintywinty – Tweedle
I suspect Shasta and Legate
Agan – Queen of Hearts
Nerwen, Brinn, Legate, Lommy, Shasta
Shasta – Knave of Hearts
Nerwen, Legate, Agan
Lottie – Duchess
Nerwen and Legate
Nerwen – the Dodo
Everyone
Legate – Jabberwocky
Wintywinty, Nerwen, Agan
Lommy – the Gryphon
Nerwen and Legate
Brinniel – Tweedledee
Nerwen

[Nerwen]

I don't think that's suspicious. And she's not really insisting, just defending herself. People bring it up; they say it's susicious; she explains why it's not. I don't have a problem with this.

I think it looks a bit different if you've played with her in the past, though– she could act exactly like this as a wolf.

However, I'll vote

++Legate


(for points raised earlier)

EDIT:X'd with winty. Cute.

[wintywinty]

++Legate

Xed with Nerwen

[Loslote]

I think it looks a bit different if you've played with her in the past, though– she could act exactly like this as a wolf.

Maybe, and I could be wrong - I just don't think I am. ;)

[Shastanis Althreduin]

I made it back!

--Aganzir
++Legate

Edit: X'ed with Nerwen, winty, and Lottie. Well now, there's a waste of a retraction. :rolleyes:

[Brinniel]

++Nerwen

[wilwarin538]

Agan -> Nerwen
Legate -> Agan
Lommy -> Nerwen (2)
Lottie -> Legate
Nerwen -> Legate (2)
Winty -> Legate (3)
Shasta -> Legate (4)
Brinn -> Nerwen (3)

That makes it Legate.

Legate was the Cursed-Wolf.

It is now night time. Narration will be up tomorrow.

[wilwarin538]

~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~

Twas brillig, and the slithy toves
Did gyre and gimble in the wabe;
All mimsy were the borogoves,
And the mome raths outgrabe.

Alirin did trot along the way,
Hoping to find escadom
From this torribly long day,
Or atleast this deadful kingdom.

Then she saw the Jabberwock,
And the beast made her afeared.
She sooked about but stopped her walk,
When the vorpal sword appeared.

She took the vorpal sword in hand:
Though the skill she'd ne’er been taught—
So rested she by the Tumtum tree,
And stood awhile in thought.

And as in uffish thought she stood,
The Jabberwock, with eyes of flame,
Came whiffling through the tulgey wood,
And burbled as it came!

“I am a Culf and the Worsed,
Though I have not been for long!”
The Jabberwocky loudly versed,
As he proudly sang it like a song!

“I cannot pass this dreadful beast,
And I have not the skills to slay,
But I just cannot become it’s feast,
So to slay it is the only way!"

One, two! One, two! and through and through
The vorpal blade went snicker-snack!
She left it dead, and left its head
And went galumphing back.

“O frabjous day! Callooh! Callay!
I slew the Jabberwock!”
The girl did skip and sing away,
As she continued on her walk.

~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~

Dead
Fea - Red Queen - Cobbler - lynched Day 1
Boro - the Caterpillar - Shirriff - killed Night 2
Sally - the Dormouse - Wolf - lynched Day 2
Izzy - White Rabbit - Ordinary - killed Night 3
Glirdan - Mad Hatter - Wolf - lynched Day 3
Greenie - White Night - Seer - killed Night 4
Nogrod – Cheshire Cat – Wolf – lynched Day 4
Nienna - White Queen - Hunter - killed Night 5
Inzil - King of Hearts - Ordinary - hunter killed Night 5
Morsul - Mock Turtle - Ordinary - lynched Day 5
Mira - March Hare - Ordinary - lynched Day 6
Skip - Humpty Dumpty - Ranger - killed Night 7
Legate - Jabberwocky - Cursed-Wolf - lynched Day 7

Alive
Wintywinty – Tweedledum
Agan – Queen of Hearts
Shasta – Knave of Hearts
Lottie – Duchess
Nerwen – the Dodo
Lommy – the Gryphon
Brinniel – Tweedledee

It is still Night 8.

[wilwarin538]

~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~

Alirin continued walking yet again, feeling rather proud about her triumph over the dread Jabberwocky. Soon she came upon a fork in the road with two signs, one that said “To the house of Tweedledee” and the other said “To Tweedledum’s house”. The odd thing was that they were both pointing in the same direction.

Alirin decided to follow the signs and soon came upon two fat little men, each with an arm around the other’s neck. One had DEE written on his collar, and the other had DUM. They were standing completely still, so Alirin just stood in front of them and waited.

“If you think we’re wax works, you ought to pay you know,” Dum said, “Wax-works weren’t made to be looked at for nothing, nohow!”

“Contrariwise,” added Dee, “if you think we’re alive you ought to speak.”

“I’m sure I must be very sorry,” Alirin said, as she thought about the old poem.

Tweedledum and Tweedledee
Agreed to have a battle;
For Tweedledum said Tweedledee
Had spoiled his nice new rattle.

Just then flew down a monstrous crow,
As black as a tar-barrel;
Which frightened both the heroes so,
They quite forgot their quarrel.

“I know what you’re thinking about,” said Dum,”but it isn’t so, nohow.”

“Contrariwise,” said Dee, “if it was so, it might be; and if it were so, it would be; but as it isn’t, it ain’t. That’s logic.”

The three stood for a moment just looking around at each other.

“Do you see that?” Dum suddenly said, in a voice choking with passion as he pointed with a trembling finger at a small white thing lying under a tree.

“It's only a rattle,” Alirin said, after a careful examination of the little white thing. “quite old and broken.''

“I knew it was!” cried Tweedledum, beginning to stamp about wildly and tear his hair. “It's spoilt, of course!” Here he looked at Tweedledee, who immediately sat down on the ground, and tried to hide himself under a shrubbery.

Alice laid her hand upon Dum’s arm, and said in a soothing tone, “You needn't be so angry about an old rattle.”

“But it isn't old!” Dum cried, in a greater fury than ever. “It's new, I tell you -- I bought it yesterday -- my nice NEW RATTLE!” and his voice rose to a perfect scream. Alirin quickly covered her ears as Dee crawled even further under the shrubbery.

“Of course you agree to have a battle?” Dum said in a calmer tone.

“I suppose so,” the other sulkily replied, as he crawled out of the shrub.
The two ran off and came back about three minutes later wearing full armour made out of table clothes, blankets and towels, and saucepans for helmets.

"Let's fight till six, and then have dinner," said Tweedledum.

"Very well," the other said, rather sadly: "and she can watch us -- only you'd better not come very close," he added: "I generally hit everything I can see -- when I get really excited."

"And I hit everything within reach," cried Tweedledum, "whether I can see it or not!"

As the two got ready to fight it suddenly became very dark. Alirin looked around and saw that there was a giant crow coming straight at them! Dee was able to take cover in time, but Dum could not escape and was taken up by the giant crow. Alirin hid under a tree and waited until it was out of sight, and by the time she got out of her cover Tweedledee was nowhere to be seen, and Tweedledum was off somewhere with the crow.

~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~

Dead
Fea - Red Queen - Cobbler - lynched Day 1
Boro - the Caterpillar - Shirriff - killed Night 2
Sally - the Dormouse - Wolf - lynched Day 2
Izzy - White Rabbit - Ordinary - killed Night 3
Glirdan - Mad Hatter - Wolf - lynched Day 3
Greenie - White Night - Seer - killed Night 4
Nogrod – Cheshire Cat – Wolf – lynched Day 4
Nienna - White Queen - Hunter - killed Night 5
Inzil - King of Hearts - Ordinary - hunter killed Night 5
Morsul - Mock Turtle - Ordinary - lynched Day 5
Mira - March Hare - Ordinary - lynched Day 6
Skip - Humpty Dumpty - Ranger - killed Night 7
Legate - Jabberwocky - Cursed-Wolf - lynched Day 7
Wintywinty - Tweedledum - Ordinary - killed Night 8

Alive
Agan – Queen of Hearts
Shasta – Knave of Hearts
Lottie – Duchess
Nerwen – the Dodo
Lommy – the Gryphon
Brinniel – Tweedledee

It is now Day 8.

[Loslote]

Huh. Rather a strange turn of events...

Anyway. We have a bit more wiggle room now, but we still do have to kill the last wolf soon. My little list of Lottie logic:

I trust:
Me.

I mostly trust:
Shasta
Brinn
Agan

I suspect
Lommy
Nerwen

And I'll post with reasons for that grouping later toDay, but I don't have time for analysii right now, so I'll hang around for a few minutes and then be back when most everyone is asleep. :rolleyes:

[Nerwen]

Huh. Rather a strange turn of events...

Anyway. We have a bit more wiggle room now, but we still do have to kill the last wolf soon. My little list of Lottie logic:

I trust:
Me.

I mostly trust:
Shasta
Brinn
Agan

I suspect
Lommy
Nerwen

And I'll post with reasons for that grouping later toDay, but I don't have time for analysii right now, so I'll hang around for a few minutes and then be back when most everyone is asleep. :rolleyes:

...What? Did you not observe Brinniel's attempt to save Legate yesterDay?

Besides, I've read through the last couple of Days, and it looks to me like it's her– with Lommy as a runner-up.

[Nerwen]

Nerwen's suspicion list

Green
Me
Lottie

Self-explanatory.


Yellow-green
Shasta
Aganzir

Shasta voted Legate at a time when both Agan and I were viable lynches (see x-posting). Legate voted Agan when neither of them were clearly doomed, yet both were in danger– i.e. not a likely wolf-on-wolf vote. Anyway, not only is it late for such bold tactics, but voting for wolves has tend to draw suspicion this game.

================================================== =

Orange
Lommy

Encouraged suspicion of yours truly in a "not-really-doing-it" kind of way; phrases it in a way that suggests she knows I'm innocent ("we will undoubtedly feel stupid whatever she turns out to be"); made weird argument against the Cursed having been found; defends Legate.


Red
Brinniel

Basically, Lommy squared: ambiguous relations with known wolves; built up suspicion on me by coolly repeating "she's evil" until everyone believed it (like I said, I just can't see that there is a case on me); again she sounds like she knows I'm innocent ("whatever her role"); keeps her hands clean in the Morsul and Mira lynches, but in a way that suggests to me she knew their roles too; Legate defends her; she attempts to save Legate.

I have to do some stuff now, but as soon as I have time I'll provide chapter and verse for all this.

At the moment, I'd say it's almost certainly one of them, and that my suspicions are split about 80-20 Brinn's way.

[Brinniel]

...What? Did you not observe Brinniel's attempt to save Legate yesterDay?
You've gotta be kidding me, right? :rolleyes: I made it quite clear that I had every intention of voting for you from the very beginning of the Day. Did you not get the memo?

Anyway, I'm relieved Legate was cursed because he did look awfully innocent in the first half of the game (which means I wasn't completely fooled) . YesterDay I could see some valid points against him, but even if he was climbing up my radar, there's no way I'm going to jump on a bandwagon to lynch a player I haven't gotten the chance to look at for myself. And especially not when there's a potential candidate I suspect more.

Strange that Lottie didn't die last Night...now's usually the time where it's dangerous to keep around known innocents. In any case, I'm quite alright with last Night's kill choice...this means no chance for a dumb winty lynch.

It would make sense to go back and look at everyone...just trying to figure out how I'm going to do that since tomorrow is another busy day for me. I'd have to give props to Lommy if she is a wolf...remembering her interactions with other wolves in the past, it doesn't seem likely she is one. She'd have to be extremely bold and confident in taking such risks, which is possible, but right now I'm thinking her innocent. It's also possible Shasta is a wolf, but again I still find it less likely. I don't know, what are the chances that Nogrod would set up a case against a fellow wolf at a time when he himself would probably be lynched?

So far, I'm thinking Nerwen or Agan our most likely wolves, with Nerwen on top. This case she's attempting to set up against me which seems to have a lot to do with the idea that I "saved" Legate by voting her only puts her in a worse light. I've had innocents suspect me before, and while I'd be frustrated, their suspicion feels genuine. I've also had wolves make up cases against me in a major effort to get me lynched (remember that, Agan?) and everything about it seems forced to me. Right now, I'm reminded of the latter.

Btw, I'm wondering if toDay is the best Day for our unicorn to come out of the closet. It'd be nice that if we didn't get the wolf toDay that he/she would end up killing the unicorn and possibly give us an extra Day. But if that didn't happen, then the wolf could easily make a false claim toMorrow and force the remaining players to decide who the real unicorn is...and if they got it wrong, the wolf would win. Or if we're unlucky, the cobbler could be brought back, which would be bad news.

[Loslote]

Btw, I'm wondering if toDay is the best Day for our unicorn to come out of the closet. It'd be nice that if we didn't get the wolf toDay that he/she would end up killing the unicorn and possibly give us an extra Day. But if that didn't happen, then the wolf could easily make a false claim toMorrow and force the remaining players to decide who the real unicorn is...and if they got it wrong, the wolf would win. Or if we're unlucky, the cobbler could be brought back, which would be bad news.

I think it is. With two known innocents, the list of possible candidates will narrow down considerably. Actually, if the wolf could reveal his true role, too, that'd narrow it down even more. Oh, wolfie? :Merisu:

Seriously, though, I do think the time has come.

[Aganzir]

Legate's guilt makes Nerwen look much more innocent. I don't think even she would've pushed a fellow's lynching like she did, at least this late in the game...

I disagree with Brinn about the unicorn not revealing (obviously). They are such minor points, risks that have to be taken if we want to have two known innocents... I can't think what an innocent would have to gain by saying it but for a wolf it makes much more sense.

I'll have to do some reading later but currently I'm leaning on Brinn being our wolf.

[Nerwen]

You've gotta be kidding me, right? I made it quite clear that I had every intention of voting for you from the very beginning of the Day. Did you not get the memo?

And yet you waited until the last possible minute. I think you were hoping to be able to yet again keep out of the lynch of an innocent.

As for why winty was killed rather than Lottie: well, I don't know, but I suspect it's because he'd both made himself look very innocent and was a wild card in terms of voting, whereas Lottie had expressed her trust in you.

EDIT:X'd with Aganzir.

[Loslote]

Legate's guilt makes Nerwen look much more innocent. I don't think even she would've pushed a fellow's lynching like she did, at least this late in the game...

But the only other real option at the time was herself.

I disagree with Brinn about the unicorn not revealing (obviously). They are such minor points, risks that have to be taken if we want to have two known innocents... I can't think what an innocent would have to gain by saying it but for a wolf it makes much more sense.

I'll have to do some reading later but currently I'm leaning on Brinn being our wolf.

No comment at this time. But I don't think you're right. I won't say anything more right now.

[Loslote]

And yet you waited until the last possible minute. I think you were hoping to be able to yet again keep out of the lynch of an innocent.

Or she just really wanted to kill you over a (in her mind) unknown. As the rules stand, the last person to get the votes dies. If Shasta hadn't gotten back in time, she would've been able to kill you, her suspect, rather than Legate, who she wasn't as sure of. I would've done the same thing in her place.

As for why winty was killed rather than Lottie: well, I don't know, but I suspect it's because he'd both made himself look very innocent and was a wild card in terms of voting, whereas Lottie had expressed her trust in you.

There's a possibility, but if you take that logic a bit further, Shasta would be the wolf, not Brinn, because WW had expressed suspicion of him and I'd expressed trust.

[Nerwen]

But the only other real option at the time was herself.

And why would Wolf-me have sacrificed Legate to save myself with all the suspicion against me yesterDay?

EDIT:X'd with Lottie.

[Loslote]

And why would Wolf-me have sacrificed Legate to save myself with all the suspicion against me yesterDay?

To make yourself look better? Because you'd agreed overNight to w-o-w?

Or, of course, you are innocent and the wolf is Lommy. This is a possibilty, and I don't want to focus just on you.

[Nerwen]

Or she just really wanted to kill you over a (in her mind) unknown. As the rules stand, the last person to get the votes dies. If Shasta hadn't gotten back in time, she would've been able to kill you, her suspect, rather than Legate, who she wasn't as sure of. I would've done the same thing in her place.

Lottie, look at the pattern of her voting. It looks to me very much like she's been trying to keep her hands clean each time an innocent gets lynched.

Look, have you played with a Brinnwolf before? She's famous for her ability to slip quietly through to the end and then win the game for the evil side. Look who's talking, you say? Yes, exactly– Nerwen is paranoid about Brinniel. She makes a very dangerous wolf.

There's a possibility, but if you take that logic a bit further, Shasta would be the wolf, not Brinn, because WW had expressed suspicion of him and I'd expressed trust.

Bit there's no reason to take the logic "a bit further".

EDIT:X'd with Lottie.

[Loslote]

Lottie, look at the pattern of her voting. It looks to me very much like she's been trying to keep her hands clean each time an innocent gets lynched.

Look, have you played with a Brinnwolf before? She's famous for her ability to slip quietly through to the end and then win the game for the evil side. Look who's talking, you say? Yes, exactly– Nerwen is paranoid about Brinniel. She makes a very dangerous wolf.

I have. Nienna and Mira's game. It was bad. :rolleyes: But...just because she could be a dangerous wolf doesn't mean she is a wolf. You are a dangerous wolf, but that doesn't automatically mean you are one.

BTW, I could be wrong about Brinn. Hopefully I'm not. If I'm not, it would be very bad to lynch her now.

Bit there's no reason to take the logic "a bit further".

Yes, there is. You can't just use logic to make points against one person; you have to think logically about everyone, and use the same standards and logic with everyone.

[Nerwen]

To make yourself look better? Because you'd agreed overNight to w-o-w?

Under the circumstances, it would have been idiotic for a Nerwolf to have risked killing Legate– and like I said, helping to lynch wolves has been attracting suspicion this game!

Or, of course, you are innocent and the wolf is Lommy. This is a possibilty, and I don't want to focus just on you.

Yep, it could be Lommy too. I said that. But I think it's more likely Brinniel.

EDIT:X'd with Lottie.

[Loslote]

Under the circumstances, it would have been idiotic for a Nerwolf to have risked killing Legate– and like I said, helping to lynch wolves has been attracting suspicion this game!

Okay, this is sounding more genuine. *ponders*

Yep, it could be Lommy too. I said that. But I think it's more likely Brinniel.

I don't think Brinn is a wolf. But then, I also suspect you, and you disagree with that, too. ;)

[Nerwen]

I have. Nienna and Mira's game. It was bad. :rolleyes: But...just because she could be a dangerous wolf doesn't mean she is a wolf. You are a dangerous wolf, but that doesn't automatically mean you are one.

But it automatically means you never trust me 100%, doesn't it?

BTW, I could be wrong about Brinn. Hopefully I'm not. If I'm not, it would be very bad to lynch her now.

Look, do you actually know something you're not sharing with us, Lottie? Is that it?

Yes, there is. You can't just use logic to make points against one person; you have to think logically about everyone, and use the same standards and logic with everyone.

You miss my point, I think. I'm not saying the kill-choice points to Brinn and only to Brinn, I'm saying there is a good reason why a Brinnwolf might choose not to kill you.

[Loslote]

But it automatically means you never trust me 100%, doesn't it?

Not counting a seer-reveal, true. ;)

You miss my point, I think. I'm not saying the kill-choice points to Brinn and only to Brinn, I'm saying there is a good reason why a Brinnwolf might choose not to kill you.

Okay, this makes sense. :)

[Brinniel]

I disagree with Brinn about the unicorn not revealing (obviously). They are such minor points, risks that have to be taken if we want to have two known innocents... I can't think what an innocent would have to gain by saying it but for a wolf it makes much more sense.
Wait, I'm confused. So you don't think the unicorn should reveal? :confused:

And yet you waited until the last possible minute. I think you were hoping to be able to yet again keep out of the lynch of an innocent.
Of course I waited. The voting was close and if it came to a tie, I can only get you lynched if I voted last. Obviously I didn't know Legate was a wolf at the time and you looked more suspicious, so I did want you lynched over him.

And why would Wolf-me have sacrificed Legate to save myself with all the suspicion against me yesterDay?
Yeah, and probably the best way to brush off that suspicion is to go wolf-on-wolf since that's probably less expected at this late stage of the game. By voting Legate at a critical point, you can make yourself look good then pin the suspicion on someone who didn't vote him, which is exactly what you're doing.

BTW, I could be wrong about Brinn. Hopefully I'm not. If I'm not, it would be very bad to lynch her now.
Don't worry, you're not wrong. And I'm quite thankful to be innocent because I've been a lone wolf before and it sucks. Honestly with all other stresses going on in my life, if I were put in that position I would've thrown up my hands and given up ages ago.

Under the circumstances, it would have been idiotic for a Nerwolf to have risked killing Legate– and like I said, helping to lynch wolves has been attracting suspicion this game!
It's not an idiotic thing for a wolf to do if they think they can convince the village that it is idiotic (if that makes any sense). And as for the latter bit, not necessarily. Wolves may sometimes vote off their packmate, or they might vote to save them, or they might stay neutral. Looking at the votes should be done on an individual basis, taking into account the circumstances of the lynch, the reason for the vote, timing, and the voter's position in the game at the time (as in whether they were heavily suspected at the time or not).

[Nerwen]

Yeah, and probably the best way to brush off that suspicion is to go wolf-on-wolf since that's probably less expected at this late stage of the game. By voting Legate at a critical point, you can make yourself look good then pin the suspicion on someone who didn't vote him, which is exactly what you're doing.

Oh... I see... so Shasta's vote is suspicious too, I suppose? Whereas yours makes you pure as the driven snow?:rolleyes:

Look, Brinniel, the only rationale for your actions the past few Days– the one with which Lottie has thoughtfully supplied you– is that you are on a noble crusade against me, so sure I'm a wolf that nothing else matters except killing me.

Problem one:

YOU DO NOT KNOW MY ROLE. What do you claim to be, the secret backup Seer? Greenie's pm-buddy to whom she communicated her last Dream? What?

And don't say it's because your "case" against me was so persuasive that you could logically be 99% certain I was a wolf. I say again: what case? I answered your points against me, and Agan's, and you simply waved your hand and said, "No... don't buy it– anyway, let's just lynch her for peace of mind".

Problem two:

You are not Sally. Or Izzy. Or any of the players who tend to go by gut-feeling and are sometimes led astray by it. I've had those two– ordos both– pursue innocent-me for Days because they "just knew" I was a wolf. You, I just don't see being that convinced by your own paper-thin case.

EDIT: spelling.

[Nerwen]

What Brin and Lommy said, and what Legate said about them

#790 (http://www.forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=627887&postcount=790). Brinniel speculates on what happened in the Night.


#792.
Btw Lottie (and perhaps Shasta too), can you please explain to me how lynching an innocent Morsul is soo helpful to us? I'm really curious about this one.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nerwen
Why isn't Morsul a potential wolf, Brinn?
I already stated this. Morsul was attracting attention and trying to get himself lynched. A lone wolf would not do that because he'd lose the game not just for himself, but his entire team. Giving up would be a selfish and lame move, and I didn't think Morsul would do that.
Comments: I didn't address this at the time, but obviously what Morsul did might have been a lupine double-bluff, or a Morwolf might have given up because he was heavily suspected and his more skilled comrades already dead. While Brinn's case for his innocence was good, it was hardly so conclusive that she could be sure he wasn't "a potential wolf". (See #782. (http://www.forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=627824&postcount=782))


#794. Brinniel explains why she made a post that said what I already had.


#817. (http://www.forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=627952&postcount=817)
For that matter, if the Cursing did happen toNight, I would be most worried about Lommy then, as she was generally considered innocent, I believe, so I guess she would be a likely target for the Wolf.


#819. (http://www.forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=627955&postcount=819) Brinn insists I'm still suspicious ("just because", basically): "You may see it that way, but I don't. Your actions on Day 3 and especially Day 4 look clearly suspicious to me." Explains again how she "knew" Morsul's innocence– says she merely deduced it. Dislikes the whole idea of lynching the Unicorn. Tells Skip she didn't vote because it was pointless:
Originally Posted by skip
Also, why did you not vote Brinn? There was still a chance to lynch Nerwen. All it would take was one person retracting his or her Morsul vote and re-voting Nerwen.
Yeah, which was clearly unlikely. winty seemed pretty much gone by then. Nerwen used her retraction to save herself, and would obviously never vote for herself anyway. Lottie was the only one to convince, and I tried to persuade her to vote Nerwen and failed. By then, it was too late to persuade her to change it, and I'm quite certain she wouldn't have used her only retraction anyway when she seemed quite happy with her vote on Morsul. Even though my vote would've made no difference, I probably should've made one anyway simply for vote record reasons, but I was so irritated at the time, I couldn't be bothered with it.

Tells Skip my retracting to save myself is "not necessarily" a sign of guilt. Thinks we should "keep the possibility of a cursed turning in the back of our minds , but not yet attempt to go about looking for one just yet", but rather concentrate on the fourth wolf. Asks Wilwa:
Btw, if we were to lynch the cursed, would the narration indicate whether that cursed had indeed been turned, or would we be left guessing?
Comments: Her answer to Skip is no answer at all, really. The fact remains that there was at least a chance to lynch me (the "clearly suspicious") and save Morsul, of whose innocence she was "pretty certain". She chose to hold her vote (she was there, all right, and commenting). Why? It looks to me like a wolf who doesn't really care about the results of the lynch, but prefers to avoid killing an innocent (i.e. me), when she could just sit back and let another one die by inaction. Even her quasi-defence of me to Skip there I don't really like– I mean, "not necessarily"? when what I'd done was normal practice. Okay, I'm getting paranoid now, seeing everything through wolf-coloured glasses, whatever. But look– doesn't it seem like she's trying to very subtly mislead the newbie about just how invalid his suspicion was?


#836. (http://www.forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=627985&postcount=836) Lommy is disturbed by me because I'm not upset enough at the suspcion against me; thinks my use of underlining and italics "forced". Admits that she made mistakes about the rules.


#840. (http://www.forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=627989&postcount=840) Agan and I are Lommy's top suspects.


#846 (http://www.forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=627996&postcount=846)In response to me Lommy admits that if I'd been acting indignant she's have called that wolfish too. Accepts clarification of a point I made.


#848. (http://www.forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=628001&postcount=848) Lommy lists players in order of suspicion: Nerwen, Aganzir, Mira, Winty, Legate, Shasta, Brinn, Skip. Would prefer to vote Agan or me, but flip-flops: "both of their few last posts look unwolvish". Might also vote Mira or winty.

Comments: Lommy flip-flopping? Or Lomwolf wanting to keep her options open?


#851 (http://www.forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=628004&postcount=851). Legwolf talks of whom he might vote (unsure of me or Agan, is thinking about Shasta and Mira.) No mention of Lommy or Brinn.


#856. (http://www.forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=628011&postcount=856) Brinniel still suspects me, still on a "just because" basis, but doesn't feel "quite as forceful" about it– her argument has now changed to the familiar "lynch her for peace of mind" one: "And while I'd feel bad if she really were innocent, if we lynched Nerwen, at least I wouldn't have to keep worrying about her".

Comments: This looks to me like she knows perfectly well I'm innocent.


#857. (http://www.forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=628012&postcount=857) Lommy shares my fears about the situation, will check her own and Agan's wolf-analyses.


#861. Banter from Brinniel.


#862. (http://www.forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=628017&postcount=862) Tells Skip my losing my temper could be read either way– may not be guilty, but she's not about to conclude I'm a frustrated innocent either.

Comments: Fair enough


#864. (http://www.forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=628019&postcount=864) Lommy gives everyone "wolf" points, based on interactions with known wolves. Agan has the most, followed by Legate and me. Mira, Skip and Brinn are in the middle, with winty and Shasta last.

Comments: None. I don't understand the criteria she's using.


#866.
If the options were Nerwen and Agan, I would have hard time deciding.

But if the option for a Nerwen-lynch is lynching Shasta or Skip, or even Mira, I will really have to vote Nerwen.

Nerwen, if you're innocent, I vote you and you get lynched, you may comfort yourself with the thought that I will go after Agan next (provided that I survive the Night).

PS. I think that Nerwen's frustration is genuine, but it doesn't tell us anything about her role (sadly).
Comments: Start of the "lynch Nerwen, then Agan (or vice versa)" meme.


#869. (http://www.forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=628025&postcount=869) Lommy explains why she mentioned Shasta, Skip and Mira in her last post– they were the other people most suspected.


#870. Comments on Skip's retraction.
Wow that was pretty drastic... now I really wonder... (not about Skip though!)
Then about what?

#872.
Nerwen 2 votes, Aganzir 1? Whichever I vote, I will feel like an idiot if she turns out innocent...

Currently leaning on Aganzir though, not because she seems any more guilty but because she has less votes atm so it'd be more balanced (and more interesting toMorrow in case the game continues).

On the other hand, we can take for granted that Nerwen is going to vote Agan so it's kind of 2-2.

Hmm...
Comments: Hmm indeed... Sounds a bit like she expects the victim to turn out innocent– cf Brinn at #856.


#874.
Lottie, why are you so sure the cursed was turned last Night?

++Aganzir

I'm sorry darling, but you know I hate you to fool me as a wolf. Are you a wolf, then? Not sure, but your horrible track record when it comes to lynching wolves isn't exactly convincing. And I do get creepy vibes from you.

I'm especially sorry if Nerwen is the last wolf. But if it comforts you, if you're lynched and innocent, you can take my word that I won't fail to lynch Nerwen on the third time.

That being said, I leave this village in your hands, friends. I don't really have a preference over which one we lynch, Agan or Nerwen, I'll be probably after the other one toMorrow (if there is a toMorrow which I can take part to). If someone else dies, though, I'll be quite unhappy.

I trust you to make the right choice (whatever it is)... Good night!
Comments: Quite an evil-looking post– could be a wolf trying to set up the next lynch. Also, possibly trying to steer people away from talking about the Cursed, though it was a fair question to ask Lottie.


#877. (http://www.forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=628037&postcount=877) Legwolf discusses his voting options.

...Lommy now has made me slightly concerned given the emerging anti-Aganzir movement, however the concern is largely stemming from the fear of her being a likely target for a Wolf and thus, likely Cursed, but as there's no evidence of that, none can tell.

(...)

I am trying to resist now and focus on others, as I still believe I have better grounds for suspecting other people. Brinn is in a way a case similar to Nerwen's, of all the people there I find her maybe the least suspicious, though.


#881 (http://www.forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=628042&postcount=881)Legate's vote-post on Mira.


#882. (http://www.forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=628043&postcount=882)
Brinniel insists she suspected me on perfectly valid grounds. Agan a dangerous wolf, but still probably wouldn't go after an innocent Nerwen at this stage. We should look at under the radar wolves, because that's the safest place for them to be. "Unless you're being suspected...then it's all about defend, defend, defend"
Lottie, while we can consider the possibility of the cursed being turned, we shouldn't assume it. I recommend you don't vote someone because you think they are cursed...instead try to find the fourth wolf. If we lynch them, then we will find out whether we even have a cursed.
Comments: Trying to broaden her options, while still keeping me in there? Interesting that she repeats her argument against looking for the Cursed. I mean, it's a good point in itself, but it's starting to seem really important to her.


#883.
Originally Posted by Nerwen
Try "frustrated". You've never had to defend yourself against Agan, have you Lottie? There's a certain point when it dawns on you that she's never going to accept any counter-argument whatever...
Frustrated can also be furry. There have been just as many frustrated wolves in the past as frustrated innocents. So don't think your frustration is going to make you look anymore innocent.
Comments: A bit twisty, I think– implies that my intention there is to say that my frustration proves my innocence, rather than just defend my reaction.


#887.
I'd really like to lynch Nerwen, but someone else has to vote her too in order for that to happen...

Almost 10 minutes until deadline. Where is everyone?


#891. Response to Lottie's "Legalysis", where she concludes Legwolf is "really suspicious".
Are you voting Legate then? Though that'd be a throwaway...

I really hope you don't vote based on possible packs. Because we don't even know if there is one.
Comments:Third time. Yep, looks like it is important to her.


#894.
++Nerwen

Bah, this is annoying. I really hope Agan is the wolf then..

If I'm dead by toMorrow, please LYNCH NERWEN. Well, unless Agan turns out to be a wolf...
Comments: Picks up the "lynch one, then the other" meme.


#895.
Oh crap, Mira's going? I'd rather see Agan go, though not enough to retract...

Looks like an easy lynch. Mira's been busy in RL. I do NOT like how winty keeps coming out of nowhere to vote.
Comments:Mira had been talked about as a possible lynch for some time. Brinniel seemed oblivious to this– yet once Mira was doomed, she's ready to defend her. And why not retract, since she apparently finds Agan quite suspicious and Mira not at all suspicious? Much like a repeat of the previous Day, isn't it?


General comments; What I said before I started– Lommy looks somewhat suspicious, Brinn highly so. One thing I hadn't noticed before was that Legate twice suggested Lommy as the Cursed, which speaks rather in her favour.

Other than that there was no interaction between Legate and the other two, though this changes the next Day.

I don't know if I'll have time to look at that now, however.

EDIT:Formatting; spelling; clarification.
EDIT2: Ditto.

[Thinlómien]

I agree with whoever said that toDay the unicorn should come out - so, here I am, I give up. I would have wanted to die in the Night, but the wolf seemingly had no interest in killing me even when everybody thought me innocent. *sigh* And anyway, whoever it was who brought up the possibility of a false unicorn claim toMorrow had a point.

And before you ask - yes, I honestly forgot there's a unicorn in the game (although I admit I remembered it by the time I pretended to have forgotten it) and I was honestly wrong about who the unicorn can resurrect and in what case. I should read the role PM more closely.

I will be of use now and post some thoughts. I have read what people have said toDay and think there can be found pretty condemning material from the two previous Days' posting. I will look at it next and then come back with an opinion.

Last thing - thanks for lynching Legate, mates. I was pretty sure there would be some last-minute bandwagon and probably a stupid one. I logged in during the Night-time and saw "Legate was lynched" I was like "not AGAIN! again some stupid last minute bandwagon" and then I saw "he was the cursed wolf" and I was like "yay I think I'll snuggle all last-minute voters and forgive them for lynching Morsul and Mira!" :D

Okay, one more last thing. I think Winty was possibly killed because his death would leave no trails, the last wolf might've been between frying pan and fire with her (I say her because I doubt it's Shasta) kill choice last Night. Now, off to reread (although if I'm lazy I might do something else first, like have a nap, but I'll reread and post within 3 hours at the most and probably much sooner...)


edit: xed with Nerwen

[Nerwen]

I disagree with Brinn about the unicorn not revealing (obviously). They are such minor points, risks that have to be taken if we want to have two known innocents... I can't think what an innocent would have to gain by saying it but for a wolf it makes much more sense.

I'll have to do some reading later but currently I'm leaning on Brinn being our wolf.
No comment at this time. But I don't think you're right. I won't say anything more right now.

I could be wrong about Brinn. Hopefully I'm not. If I'm not, it would be very bad to lynch her now.

Lottie, you seem to be hinting here that you know something the rest of us don't about Brinniel, and that it proves, or at least suggests, her innocence.

EDIT:X'd with Lommy; fixed quotes.

[Aganzir]

But the only other real option at the time was herself.
I'm not talking about that but the fact that she voiced some suspicion against Legate before, commenting on how he found Nerwen's kill speculation weird. I just checked it and it wasn't as strong as I had remembered, though... But in any case it must have been in the wolves' interests that they both survive as they might have won already today.


Wait, I'm confused. So you don't think the unicorn should reveal? :confused:
Whoops. No, I thought she should, I had been saying that for two days already. But I had just woken up after six hours of sleep, skimmed through the thread & figured I'd have time to post before leaving for uni, and somehow got the impression you said the unicorn shouldn't come out at all. Morning Agan = not the sharpest Agan.

Yeah, and probably the best way to brush off that suspicion is to go wolf-on-wolf since that's probably less expected at this late stage of the game.
It depends totally on the wolf strategy. If they both had lived today, it might have been relatively easy for them to lynch an innocent, whereas the longer the game continues, the more difficult it becomes for the last wolf to hide - even if she had regained some trust from the village by going heavily wolf-on-wolf.

And before you ask - yes, I honestly forgot there's a unicorn in the game (although I admit I remembered it by the time I pretended to have forgotten it) and I was honestly wrong about who the unicorn can resurrect and in what case. I should read the role PM more closely.
Ha and I was like, Lommy is most likely not the unicorn, she wouldn't play stupid just to mislead the wolves! :p

Okay, one more last thing. I think Winty was possibly killed because his death would leave no trails
Yup I agree. And of course his vote for Legate made him look quite innocent.

I have plenty of time before my next class so I could go and have a look at Legate too.

[Aganzir]

Lottie, you seem to be hinting here that you know something the rest of us don't about Brinniel, and that it proves, or at least suggests, her innocence.
What I thought when reading those posts was that Lottie had a reason to believe Brinn was the unicorn... Or wanted to make somebody else believe so.

[Nerwen]

And before you ask - yes, I honestly forgot there's a unicorn in the game (although I admit I remembered it by the time I pretended to have forgotten it) and I was honestly wrong about who the unicorn can resurrect and in what case. I should read the role PM more closely.
You forgot your own role?:confused::eek:

EDIT:X'd with two Agans.

[Aganzir]

Others on Legate (Lottie, winty & Lommy mostly excluded)
-Agan agrees with Lottie that Legate is strangely non-committing, says she isn't used to him like that (regardless of his role)
-Nerwen wonders if Legate's surprise about her skip ranger theory is a mark of furriness
-Agan says she's worried about Legate because he feels sloppier and dumber than usual
-Agan lists Legate as one of her voting candidates (although a rather unlikely)
-Nerwen says he's smooth, slippery and opportunistic
-Shasta says Legate's backing away from claiming Nerwen's theory is far fetched could be wolfish, says Nerwen, Legate & Agan have points against them but isn't sure which are bigger
-Agan says the way Legate ends his vote post ("And let's hope we do it right this time and celebrate after this.") is awfully forced-looking and creepy
-Shasta laments that nobody is willing to vote for Legate
-Nerwen is sure there's at least a wolf in the group Legate-Lommy-Agan-Brinn
-Lottie votes for Legate after suspecting him heavily
-Brinn is growing increasingly worried about Legate but will have to look at him better before throwing any real suspicion at him
-Nerwen is willing to vote for Legate (at this point he has one vote plus Shasta's possible retraction; she xed with winty who said Legate was one of his top suspects)
-Nerwen votes for Legate (Nerwen-2, Legate-2, Agan-1)
-winty votes for Legate
-Shasta retracts and votes for Legate (he xed so when he started typing his vote post, it was Nerwen-2, Legate-1, Agan-1)
-Brinn votes for Nerwen at deadline. If Shasta hadn't retracted, Nerwen would've been lynched.

Legate on others
-wonders if Nerwolf would've brought up the theory of how the wolves could've noticed skip was the ranger, concludes that in her case it's not impossible
-has a "double-feeling" about Agan, thinks some things she does look innocent but she could also be a wolf
-has found Brinn mostly innocent before, wonders if she might be slipping under his radar, "maybe it will be best to wait for her to post and follow her to get more information about her."
-thinks Nerwen's post 931 is ineffective/unhelpful, reminds him of a desperate wolf
-is growing worried about Agan, finds Nerwen unnerving, thinks Shasta looks innocent but might be slipping under the radar. Thinks the wolf is hiding among these three.
-Nerwen looks better because she doesn't want to lynch ww
-thinks he'll vote for Agan because Nerwen looks more innocent whereas Agan has been more careful lately and is finding new suspects. Votes Agan.

Some conclusions, then...

Oh and as a sidenote (yes I'm easily distracted), we have two days to find the wolf. Unless she decides to kill Lommy and somebody is resurrected.

From the least suspicious to the most suspicious (the known innocents & me excluded, so not a very long list):
Nerwen. Brought up points against him early on the day, Legate seemed to consider voting for her seriously.
Shasta. Was after him from early on.
Brinn. It's quite convenient how they both were growing worried of the other but didn't want to do anything more radical before seeing them post more.

Based on interaction with Legate, Brinn seems to be the most likely wolf... However she did go after the other wolves, I think.

[Thinlómien]

You forgot your own role?Maybe "forget" was too strongly said, however during the first three Days or so I was really seldom thinking I had any kind of special role to the point that I was playing the game without being "conscious" of my own role the same way I am if I'm a wolf or a seer/ranger/hunter. I still keep not thinking of it - besically because I am an ordo, my death (especially in the paws of wolves) just has good consequences to the village. (Psst Wilwa not the best role for someone who used to have some sort of unofficial record of surviving till end-game... ;))

However, this babbling is to say that I'm back from a nap/magazine pause and shall look at the Days when Legate was a wolf now...

[Aganzir]

Okay I checked Lommy's analysis of the village's interactions with Glirdy & sally and my own of Nog.

Agan: no opinion of sally, something mighty fishy going on between her & Glirdan (Lommy's words); voted for Nog without suspecting him much earlier; slightly suspicious of Legate who, on the other hand, voted for her when there was a fair enough chance to get her lynched (at least in my opinion :p).

Shasta: sally tried to follow his initial Morsul suspicion; went back and forth about Glirdan; mutual suspicion between him & Nog and Nog's attempt to lynch him; was one of the first to go after Legate and his vote sealed his fate (even if he xed).

Nerwen: went after both sally & Glirdan although somewhat hesitantly; convenient relations with Nog; a major contributor in Legate's lynching.

Brinniel: last-minute suspicions against sally; went back and forth about Glirdan & voted for him without saying she suspected him; rather normal-looking relations with Nog, went with the flow the day he was lynched - however Nog listed her as suspicious along with sally & Glirdan on day 2; no real opinion of Legate & would've saved him if it wasn't for Shasta's retarction.

This list doesn't look very different from the previous one actually.

I'm pretty confident Shasta is innocent (and if he's a wolf I'm going to vote for him on day 1 every time we play together!). My best bet for lynching would be Brinn, followed by Nerwen (not that there are many options :p).

[Aganzir]

I've also had wolves make up cases against me in a major effort to get me lynched (remember that, Agan?) and everything about it seems forced to me.
How could I forget it? It's one of my favourite WW games ever (the other is the Prancing Pony). :smokin:

In any case Brinn, I don't think my cases are that different when I'm a wolf than when I'm innocent... I mean, I tend to wear my wolf-coloured glasses even when I'm a wolf myself. And if somebody suspects me when I'm innocent, I barely ever think "Oh hey that looks genuine, they must be a misguided innocent!" So I don't quite get what's supposed to be the difference between being suspected by a wolf or innocent.
Hmm I have a feeling my ramblings don't make sense, but my point is that Brinn isn't convincing me of her innocence.

And don't say it's because your "case" against me was so persuasive that you could logically be 99% certain I was a wolf. I say again: what case? I answered your points against me, and Agan's, and you simply waved your hand and said, "No... don't buy it– anyway, let's just lynch her for peace of mind".
To be honest I must say that I do think I had a case against you... You looked really suspicious to me. I've changed my mind since, but there were points against you.

[Thinlómien]

Things, or actually, Questions, since I can't quite make up my mind about these things...

The Day before yesterDay
- Legate's change of opinion on Nerwen after he was turned - suspicious or too obvious?
- Legate's post, opinions and speculation about everybody but Brinn - why not her? If she was his fellow, wouldn't he have felt he has to include her or otherwise it's suspicious? Although, later he says Brinn seems the most innocent of all - where did that then come from? But again we have to still ask: wouldn't a wolf be more careful about what he says about a fellow?
- Legate was reluctant to consider Agan a possible suspect because then he'd get paranoid and wouldn't get rid of it before she dies - echoes from innocent-Legate's thoughts or a crafty way of not suspecting a fellow?
- He would've liked to vote Shasta. Now I doubt he'd have invented a random suspicion of a fellow with this kind of half-hearted hoping his suspicion gets support.

YesterDay
- I'd find it incredibly funny if Nerwen was the last remaining wolf because then the two people to analyse the kill would have been the wolves. :D
- Legate came back to his innocent suspicion of Nerwen, but decided to suspect Agan more. Then he voted Agan, which makes me think it rather unlikely that they were in cahoots, because Agan was suspected a bit - too much for a vote for her to be safe and too little for it to be sensible to consider her a goner and try to make the best of it. Although, given the ruthless w-on-wing in this game nothing would come as a surprise... :rolleyes:
- Brinn says: "Legate is someone I'm growing increasingly worried about, but I need to look at him better before throwing any real suspicion at him." That's quite a fishy statement in the situation where suspicion against Legate is growing. However, if Brinn is the final wolf, why did she be so nice to Legate after throwing all her three other fellows under the bus one by one, especially as she had pretty good odds to survive given the small amount of suspicion against her thus far?
- Nerwen's rather late vote of Legate admittedly looks good, but in the lines of the previous point about Brinn - if Nerwolf had thrown already all her three fellows under the bus, why would she hesistate to do that to the last, especially given that it would probably be her only chance of redemption in the eyes of the village?
- Shasta's late retraction from Agan to Legate makes him a very unlikely wolf.

Well well well. That's four rather unlikely wolves out of which one is a wolf. Quite well done, whoever it is. I think our last wolf is Nerwen or Brinniel, possibly Agan but probably not Shasta. Now I want to reread toDay's posting and see how people have acted toDay because admittedly I read it quite quickly...


edit: xed with Agan x2

[Thinlómien]

Gah, no time to reread, it's later than I thought... I'll be back later.