WW LXXXII: Return to Tol-in-Gaurhoth

[skip spence]

Yeah, I was just about to point that out, Wilwa.

To Whom It May Concern:

Don't be hasty now, please! We can ill afford another mistake...


And wouldn't it be fab to turn this thing around!

Bedtime for me now, but should be able to return around 6-7 CET

[Nogrod]

Okay... and interesting. I've always thought deep emotionally written regrets more or less fishy but this self-bashing going on is just weird!


Anyway. How about we made a deal toDay, that everyone would pick at least one person who is flying under her/his radar? And then we'd do some analysing. I mean we have as a whole suspected harder only a few people (and most of them are now dead) and what have we got? So I think we need to spread the suspicions to include more people.

I don't say that means Lottie and Skip - the only two left who have been heavily suspected and voted for - are innocents just because they have been suspected and no baddies are dead.

If we'd had to vote right now, I'd probably vote for Lottie as she still seems the most suspicious of you (and I tend to trust Skip's revealment unless someone shows me a motive for the baddies to try that out). But even if I was right, only concentrating on Lottie and Skip we let the other two to smirk and smile in the background - or in the foreground, whatever: with no fear of getting caught.

So everyone promises to pick at least one person they haven't looked more closely as yet?

*going to check the voting now*

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

So everyone promises to pick at least one person they haven't looked more closely as yet?

Either you or Boro. You've been posting a ton and all, but you two seem to slip past into "dunno" categories.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Loslote

Either you or Boro. You've been posting a ton and all, but you two seem to slip past into "dunno" categories.

Good. Others? Any picks? I have no preference myself as whom to pick as it feels like most of you have went under my radar.

And surely we don't need to try and organise this in a way that everyone really gets a task - and no overlapping allowed - and will report on certain hour or anything.

I mainly wished people started also looking elsewhere they have done thus far - and do something about it.


On another note... why do you guys always vote saying "for previously stated reasons" - it takes a maddening amount of time to go back for pages there and actually find them...

(Okay, honestly I know, it's in a hurry people vote at last minutes, but it still is a task to get them. But I should be readu shortly.)

[Nogrod]

Here's the voting from yesterDay. I have added a few comments there but my main comments will come in a separate post.

about 12 hours before DL
Lottie -> Skip

Originally Posted by Lottie

Because his tone feels off, his votes thus far have been rather poor (basically cementing Shasta at four votes and introducing Legate when there hadn't been much suspicion of him and there really was no chance of lynching him at all) and because I don't have any stronger suspicions.

about 3 hours before DL
Boro -> Eönwë

Originally Posted by Boro

I know it's kind of crappy to do this, but I'm going to gone for the rest of the day. Those last minute, right before the DL posts are just confusing me and impossible to read before the DL is up. Also, his voting has been suspect with abstaining from voting on Day 1. Although, understandable because at that point no vote would have mattered. But then then Day 2's vote for Lottie which he cryptically said he'd explain today. I was hoping he'd be on sooner to explain it this time, but appears not.

from this on only the minutes before DL in front of the votes

0:30
Nerwen -> Skip 2
Dead innocent…

The last minute's frenzy begins...

0:06
Green -> Skip 3
A case built up in post #255 (page 7)
*someone please remind me how to make links to individual posts!*

0:06
Ozban -> Legate

Originally Posted by Ozban

I really like Skip's posts analyzing Legate. And I tend to vote for him today. First he openly doubts Pitch's furryness. And than he washes his hands, by voting Lottie.
Same he did the day before. He made his case against her, never wavered (that itself looks weird, considering lack of any evidence). Truth is, that his second Lottie-vote might have been just a rushed, it was first vote on second lynch, and Leg was going off, but it more likely was calculated move, because Pitch's lynching was unavoidable, and it's much better-looking this way than, propeling secong wagon in a row.

0:03
Skip -> Legate 2

Originally Posted by Skip

I guess I'd have to go with Legate

(survival reasons?)
There is the huge Legalysis on posts #229 & #230 (page 6). The outcome of it seemed to boil down on this:

Originally Posted by Skip

Here we go, it's the Shasta-Lottie-Pitch thing once again. So far everything coming out of that triad has been very unfortunate for us Elves, the first two turning out to be a Seer and an ordo. Wouldn't it be horrible if we went on to lynch Lottie and she too turned out innocent!?

Hm. If we lynch Legate and he is a wolf, chances are Lottie is innocent... Lynching Lottie would say little about Legate's role if she's innocent but if she's a wolf that would speak in favour of Legate. Actually I feel a little bit better about Legate after reviewing Day 2, although I'm still worried about him... Oh man this is tough!

0:01
wilwa -> Legate 3

Originally Posted by wilwa

I don't like. He's very wishy-washy, seems to go back in forth with his opinions, and just maybe wants to seem more useful then he is and wants to keep everyone happy. I'm leaning that he could be the Cobbler, but I'm suspicious enough of him to vote him.

0:01
Nog -> Lottie

Originally Posted by me

her explanation that she tried to pull out a seer-impression on D1 looks pretty dubious. Also her vote yesterDay for Pitchie while first driving for other solutions - and in the votepost suspecting Skip the most...

But also the fact that Legate suggested voting Lottie and I wanted to see competition with the voting - not knowing wilwa had voted for Leg...

0:01
Legate -> Skip 4
Dead innocent’s self-preservation

Originally Posted by Leg

Just in case somebody wanted to vote ME still. I guess the lottie-plan should've started a bit earlier... again we are at bandwagon...

0:00
Eönwë -> Lottie 2

Originally Posted by Steve

Definitely not liking Lottie. Just reread Day 1.On her second post she suddenly (jokingly?) suspects Shasta, and then suddenly gets more serious about it in her next post, with the very wolvish "here is some evidence for why he could be evil, but I'm probably wrong, but still, look at this evidence" sort of approach. The classic trying-to-start-other-people-suspecting-someone tactic. And then votes him after a few posts, with not much more reasoning.

0:00
Inzil -> Legate 4

Originally Posted by Zil

A lot to digest in a short period of time. My apologies.

A self-preservation vote?

[Nogrod]

A few comments on the voting.

Lottie - Nothing stands out from there, although most of us have really poor voting records so to single out Skip for it... Also - and there might be a perfectly reasonable answer to this - it is interesting that Lottie seems to vote early but can be around on the Daybreak... so are you avoiding the last minute voting or is it just the scheduals?

Boro says himself his vote is kind of crappy, but actually I understand it quite well. If you have no good suspects and no time why not go for a quiet enigma? ToDay it's probably different because we can't afford blind-lynchings and I think Steve has talked a bit more so maybe he could be read now? On the other hand - if Lottie and / or Skip were his packmates that would have been quite a nice idea to try and open up that kind of waggon earlyish (I mean I actually thought of taking on that yesterDay - but in the end it seemed we had better candidates under votes).

Greenie clearly made an effort to find the wolf or to back her suspicion in public. The question is, which one was she doing?

Ozban is a curios one. His voting looks quite so understandable, but somehow I feel that not everything is quite right there. When voting he said he had "repeated his reasons several times" but the only thing I found from yesterDay was him agreeing on Skip's thoughts on Leg. And his first post toDay about how he had started thinking Leg better and actually suspecting Skip (deep in his mind but not talking of it to us) is just so confusing...

Now it all might be genuine. I do see that possibility. But would also fit with a Wolfban who needed to talk himself out from the suspicions as an innocent-killer. And even if I dislike bringing up this kind of points as I do think every newbie to the game should be taken in as himself and what he says, it kind of smells like someone had adviced him last Night (like in the previous Nights?). It is - as he says - quite a "Legate 180" he performs there from the cool Legate lyncher with his many times stated reasons to this person who "almost knew" he was innocent - and who actually suspected the other guy near the gallows who survived - but still failed to act on that. Hard to say.

Skip's vote is easy to see as a self-preservation measure. Both wolves and innocents like to survive - and I still think he's the hunter.

Wilwa's vote basically doesn't raise eyebrows: she had brought forwards this massive analysis and acted probably on that (although she really didn't give us others a chance to read the conclusion-part of it posting the mega-post two minutes before the DL ). I'm not going to go through those analysis right now (it's way too late), but I do think there is a structural problem with ner nice point system (if she's innocent; it is a meant failure if she's a wolf); as I skimmed through her analysis of D1 yesterDay I saw that I got a fair amount of minuses from just having a different opinion in an issue of principle (I got fex. two minuses for saying twice that the wolves in general tend to want to please people and be nice, to rub them the right way!). So are you sure about your system wilwa - or are you doing something completely different with it?

My vote... okay I'm not the one to comment on that in this way. But therefore I left a short reasoning in the actual vote-post.

Legate: a dead innocent's self-preservation vote.

Eönwë seems to come in late and vote as the last or second last. On D1 I thought it was okay and understandable but I'm beginning to get more and more suspicious. Why vote on the basis of D1 on D3? So a lazy ordo or a cynical wolf?

Zil's vote seems to have been a self-preservation vote as well. As such it doesn't tell one of his affinities though.


Boro asked earlier how the Le Wagon happened. I can give you at least a partial explanation: two out of four votes to Leg were self-preservation votes...


NB. These speculations concern only the voting yesterDay. I need to try and look how they fit the larger picture later toDay. But now bedtime is reaching me.


EDIT: X'd with wilwa... and what, did I spent over an hour on that? Uh-oh.

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by wilwa

Why it doesn't make sense: he says I never wavered about Pitch, then says I looked more cobblerish, and then says he'd expect the cobbler to waver. Hmm?

Are you feeling ok? Because this is now the second reading error you've made in a short time. What you quote I said yesterday. So when I said yesterday "I thought of her yesterday as more cobbler than anything else" I was talking about what I said the day before about your self-vote looking cobblerish. However, yesterday I would have expected the cobbler to waver about Pitch, which you didn't do. Meaning, the day yesterday I previously thought you were the cobbler for your vote, but yesterday I know longer felt you were because you never wavered about Pitch. Long story short, I haven't thought you were wolf, either cobbler or innocent, and since you didn't do what I expected a cobbler to do yesterday, what does that leave?

I'm beginning to change that "I haven't thought of you as a wolf" though, because you're making some unusual errors here. Getting anxious at seeing a victory within your grasp, are ye?

So, for your idea Nogrod. I think it's good. I shall check wilwa and Eonwe. Most likely that'll come sometime in the afternoon, since I've gotta be up early and will be heading to rest earlier than usual.

I also think no one's done a good hard look at Greenie, if I have time I shall try, she hasn't posted a great amount due to being rushed, so shouldn't be a problem. Anyone think they can do a fair analysis of Lottie? I had read through Day 1 again, basically everything she said came off evil looking and I'm afraid when I continue onto Day 2 and Day 3 that will block my more sensible judgement. So, many times we've left a wolf who was almost lynched skate on through for the rest of the game. On the other hand, I need not get carried away and go completely panicky and unhinged when in these do or die situations. It tends to cause more trouble than good.

On that note, that makes me think too that Nog's idea is a very good one. Particularly picking someone who's been submarining for you, because if you focus on the person you are extremely suspicious of this could cloud our rationality and you start letting high emotions steer a lynch...not what we need today.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

it is interesting that Lottie seems to vote early but can be around on the Daybreak... so are you avoiding the last minute voting or is it just the scheduals?

Scheduals - DL is noon my time. My church usually goes until one (counting chatting afterwards) so I couldn't make it yesterDay. Wednesday and Thursday are also bad (Thursday more so). And I actually like last-minute voting better than early voting by quite a large margin.

EDIT: x'd with Boro

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Eönwë seems to come in late and vote as the last or second last. On D1 I thought it was okay and understandable but I'm beginning to get more and more suspicious. Why vote on the basis of D1 on D3? So a lazy ordo or a cynical wolf?

Well, it seems that this DL is not good for me. I only get back home about three hours before DL (I have a free morning today), and at that point I was rereading Lottie's posts and I had only just finished Day 1.

And I wanted to look more closely at Legate before even thinking about voting him. Of course, now we know he's innocent.

Ok, I have about 20 minutes left, I'll try to do a list of what I think of people.