Werewolf LXXXIII: The Nightmare on the East Road

[Volo]

Noggie doesn't bother with pleasantries and joins the Day with quite harsh words indeed. I sort of agree with his point, an evil Agan could very well be so bold as to mislead the discussion with something like that. But let's not get too jumpy yet.

I myself got the bad vibe from Greenie. Her painting of the worst-case scenario felt somewhat... mischevious. Additionally Agan liking Greenie instead of finding her suspicious points to an abnormality. This is just a hunch and I'll add that I've found Greenie suspicious all the time after her first game in which she was Wolf. But what do you think?

[Glirdan]

I'm sorry guys, I can't stay up any longer. I'm exhausted and need sleep as I have to work again later tonight. I shouldn't be this bad for Day 2.

As for my vote...

++Wilwa

Because I can. Seriously. Just completely random.

Good night.

[Volo]

An hour of silence. What a bore. Would have said something myself, but having gone through the thread a few times in a non-cronological order, I have come to few new thoughts, most of which are better left unsaid.

If nothing happens in the next ten minutes I'll have to vote (both me and computer falling asleep), and the vote will be for Agan.

[A Little Green]

Right, I'm back. I'll be here for some time, but will (hopefully) make it to bed before DL - loads to do tomorrow.

First of all, I really don't like the votes this far. Day 1, for sure, but these two are ill-reasoned even for Day 1 votes. Eomer votes Agan with

Originally Posted by Eomer

Oh well, have to leave now. I'll vote Aganzir simply due to the fact that she's posted so much when there's nothing to talk about yet. Trying to muddy the waters, obviously. Guilty as sin.

Which strikes me as not serious - that sounds as if he wasn't even trying to get it right. The same goes, even to a fuller extent, for Glirdan, whose reason is as follows:

Originally Posted by Glirdy

Because I can. Seriously. Just completely random.

Seriously, guys, we can do better than that! Or should we adopt a strategy where everyone just votes randomly because it's Day 1 and nothing matters anyway? I'm not convinced Eomer and/or Glirdan are evil (not that I'm convinced of anything at this point), but a random vote on Day 1 is among the easiest things a baddie can do - a vote that can't really be called into question because it can be covered with "Hey, it was Day 1!"

Just in general, then - I'm *gasp* ok with Nogrod and got a vague bad feeling about Pitch's first post. Checked back and it's mostly just a feeling, accompanied maybe by this:

Another thing: I think at the beginning at least, while there's still three or two wolves, the BW is a bigger danger to us than to them: he can prevent our Seer and Ranger from helping us, but if he stuns a wolf, the rest will still get a Night-kill.
They'll want to get rid of him sooner or later, so that a lone wolf won't lose a kill by being stunned, but they'll probably want to keep him around for the first few Days (unless we get lucky and lynch some wolves rather soon). For this reason, I'm not at all comfortable with Lottie's suggestion to leave a suspected BW alive till next Day.

Don't know, there's something in the way he seems to have given much thought to how the BW situation looks from a wolf's point of view.

Originally Posted by Volo

I myself got the bad vibe from Greenie. Her painting of the worst-case scenario felt somewhat... mischevious.

Mischievous? It certainly wasn't meant to. I was trying to make sense to myself of how big a threat the cobblers represent, and thought to myself, "What is the worst that could happen?" as well as "What is the best that could happen?" - and from these to get something of an idea of the potential damage the cobblers can do. (Of course the real extreme good scenario would involve wolves killing both cobblers on Nights 2 and 3, but that seemed a bit too unlikely even to me..)


EDIT: x-ed with Vollo

[Volo]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

Mischievous

Thanks for the correction.

I got a nastyish vibe from Pitchwife's first post's beginning, but later he felt Ok, Ok, Ok.

:/

Sorry, darling, I would have liked to hear more of your voice before
++Aganzir

Correction: I did hear your voice, and would have liked to think this over, but can't. Won't. vote. randomly. So. die. please.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

And who exactly is the BW supposed to be looking for? Revealing you've been stunned doesn't prove your innocence, it only proves you're not the BW. Also, I can't see why anybody would bother to claim falsely they were stunned - if more than one said it, fine, we'd know there was something rotten going on.

Originally Posted by Agan

Nog have you (or I) misunderstood something or are we just on a totally different wavelength? Because I have no idea what you're talking about. Everybody can be stunned but the BW

Aganzir: actually my post you quoted there makes the same point I have bolded from your post: that revealing will only mean confusion and opportunities especially for the cobblers to toy with.

Originally Posted by Agan #32

However, she can do much more damage to us than to the evil side - blocking the seer or the ranger is more serious for us than excluding a wolf from communication with her pack or stopping Ferny from spying is for them. Therefore I suggest that the one she stunned for the night says it out loud in the thread the next day, just to narrow down the field of possible BWs and make things easier for Tom/us.

Okay. The bolded parts were those I was thinking when reading through the thread... I can see you are not exactly saying there that the gifteds should reveal... but on the first read it did look like it ("therefore"). But that's the least interesting thing, as I said already before that one could argue for the suggestions you've made.



My main suspicion of you Agan is still this: you've tried it now two times - more or less succesfully - to make us discuss other things than who the wolves are.

Your plan of "let's discuss who the BW is and then let's discuss would everyone vote in a separate vote for the BW so that TB could pick the target, and to check it ther next Day, But aww, what would be the downsides of that kind of a deal be......." didn't quite catch up as only a few commented on it basically saying "let's not waste time on that" (I'll be thinking those people both level-headed and more innocent than not).

But your other plan of whether those stunned by Night should reveal has made it better and we have been talking about it considerably, aka. not trying to find the wolves (like I'm now losing my time answering your plan and what you have said about it Although I can say I'm not only discussing your plan but showing why I think it looks like having bad intentions behind it.), but finding the result that it would be a total mess...

EDIT: X'd with a host of posting...

[Formendacil]

Definitely having troubles motivating myself to call someone guilty toDay--if I may speak ill to the dead, this is what you get, Master Modgod.

The Aganwaggon is mildly appealing, but mostly because it's reacting to a vibrant player on Day 1, rather than inane suspicion. However, it is Day 1, and I can't, in good conscience as an apparently silent player, assist in killing a vibrant player because of vibrancy. I suppose I could always vote Eomer for wanting me dead, but that'd be unsporting...

Bah... any volunteers for lynching--preferably of the lupine, cobbleresque, or wighty variety?

[Boromir88]

On the B-W's stunning...

The night narrations will not reveal who was picked by the B-W. Basically a PM goes to the person stunned, saying they are stunned and if they have any night activities they are blocked from doing it. Anyone may say they were picked by the B-W, but I should remind that quoting the PM to "prove it" is forbidden.

And to the question on how the B-W wins...

I originally thought if no more wolves remain the B-W would still just continue stunning at night and then lynch people during the day. However, this may unecessarily drag out the game, so after some Modly deliberation. If no more wolves remain, the B-W's powers increase and instead of just being stunned at night, the person is stone-cold dead. Final decision.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by BoroGod

If no more wolves remain, the B-W's powers increase and instead of just being stunned at night, the person is stone-cold dead. Final decision.

So we need to lynch four baddies - in a village of sixteen losing more or less one per Night anyway? Great...

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

what exactly do two you mean with "the BW can even be really useful later on" (to whom?) and "whether she plays for us or for the wolves"?

I can't naturally speak for Volo, but I see the BW as a possible extra cobbler. Maybe it's too rash of me to think she'd choose sides before the result of the game is certain, but she can a) try to stun a wolf, or b) try to stun an innocent. Or she might just have fun and stun whomever she wants, in which case she just brings more chaos into a game with already two cobblers.

Originally Posted by Volo

If BW is in danger of being lynched, xe will most likely start revealing things in favour of the Wolves, such as xis mildly educated hunches about the identities of the Gifted.

Where did that come from? I find it unlikely the BW can get any more information than the rest of us just from her stunning.

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

Oh well, have to leave now. I'll vote Aganzir simply due to the fact that she's posted so much when there's nothing to talk about yet. Trying to muddy the waters, obviously. Guilty as sin.

Eomer you're stupid! :-p

Originally Posted by Nogrod

My Cobblerometer (TM) flashes red and is overheating with Aganzir.

Awww Nog! This is so nostalgic. You never like anything I say, do you?

the seer and the ranger should reveal? --- but on the other it would also tell TBW that she didn't get it right.

What are you talking about? I fail to see how telling they were stunned would reveal the seer and the ranger. And who exactly is the BW supposed to be looking for? Revealing you've been stunned doesn't prove your innocence, it only proves you're not the BW. Also, I can't see why anybody would bother to claim falsely they were stunned - if more than one said it, fine, we'd know there was something rotten going on.
However, wilwa brought up a good point:

Originally Posted by wilwarin538

what if the person he blocked is the one that gets night killed?

I hadn't even thought of it. It basically undermines my point, so yeah.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

A wolf claiming she was stunned - should we think she is innocent? A cobbler claiming she was stunned - what does it tell us? A gifted telling she was stunned (trying to act like an ordo) - do we believe her, do the wolves wish to check her?

Nog have you (or I) misunderstood something or are we just on a totally different wavelength? Because I have no idea what you're talking about. Everybody can be stunned but the BW (although hmm I can't remember it being said anywhere that she can't stun herself).

Originally Posted by Volo

Additionally Agan liking Greenie instead of finding her suspicious points to an abnormality.

That's because it is abnormal.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

At the moment Tom works alone, but it need not be so. We the village could decide by vote whom Tom tries to drive away. If the one who got the most votes (or, in case of a tie, reached the biggest number first/last) is still alive the next day, we know she isn't the BW.

Too many issues with this. Also, the BW is a she, are they? Good to know.

Originally Posted by Aganzir

Ah but what happens if the wolves attack the BW? They will know who she is and should they choose so, they can join forces. Of course it's highly risky assuming the BW decides she has better chances if she plays for the village, but still... That's the ultimate worst-case scenario: three wolves, two cobblers and the BW all playing together.

Problems.

1. How will the BW know who the wolves are?
2. Why would they side with the wolves? If the wolves win, they'll gang up and kill the BW, because they'll know who is not one of them. That just doesn't work.

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

How can you people make such long posts already? It's qwight ridiculous. I can't think of any interesting points on rules and theory; all I can think about is lynching Kath. XP

This doesn't surprise me. Also, I't like to point out the "qwight" there. Because I can, basically, and because I fancy it.

Originally Posted by Formendacil

P.S. Eomer, dear, you can't kill BOTH Kath and me--not in the course of one day, anyway. How about you flip a coin for us--I'll be Heads.

He can if he's a wolf. Just sayin'.

Originally Posted by Volo

Noggie doesn't bother with pleasantries and joins the Day with quite harsh words indeed. I sort of agree with his point, an evil Agan could very well be so bold as to mislead the discussion with something like that. But let's not get too jumpy yet.

I myself got the bad vibe from Greenie. Her painting of the worst-case scenario felt somewhat... mischevious. Additionally Agan liking Greenie instead of finding her suspicious points to an abnormality. This is just a hunch and I'll add that I've found Greenie suspicious all the time after her first game in which she was Wolf. But what do you think?

I concur. It would be very like Agan to distract the village with a secondary plan of killing the BW in order to lessen the pressure on the wolves. I could totally see it.

I've not looked hard enough at Greenie (not really at all, in fact) to say anything either way. I'll hope to look at her toMorrow and see what I think of the post.


Okay, kids, I will NOT be back after this post, period. Too many errands to run after work and possibly lots of work to do this afternoon anyway. Thus, a vote.

++Agan

There's a chance her BW plan is actually innocent, but I don't think she would be thinking so far ahead as an ordo, and as a gifted (the seer at least) she would likely rather keep her head down and worry about finding the BW and exposing them herself. Thus, I don't think it's necessarily a completely evil scheme, but I think she wants to get rid of another opponent right off the bat, and since the BW doesn't pose much of a threat to the village right now, that leaves her as evil.

And now I have to go. Sorry for the lack of me. I'm trusting our beloved Boro to text me the lynch result, as I quite want to know what you get up to while I'm gone. Until toMorrow, comrades!


EDIT: x'd since Agan's last, and thus with Volo's vote. Seems like there'll be a wagon banding together. Hope it's a good one!

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

There's a chance her BW plan is actually innocent, but I don't think she would be thinking so far ahead as an ordo

What BW plan? As far as I know, I had two.

Not that it's probably going to make much of a difference to you, but I thought of the first one (revealing you've been stunned) before I got my role. Too bad I didn't apparently think it through, but there you have it.

1. How will the BW know who the wolves are?
2. Why would they side with the wolves? If the wolves win, they'll gang up and kill the BW, because they'll know who is not one of them. That just doesn't work.

1. If they're skillful, they have a way of letting her know. Something being unlikely or difficult doesn't make it impossible.
2. I might have misunderstood something, but I don't see why they couldn't win together. If the BW could only win with the village, why isn't she officially on our side?

I really don't like sally's vote and her reasons behind it. It's basically just repeating what others have said, and it doesn't even make sense.

[Inziladun]

At work and about to leave the office for a bit, but a few thoughts first.

The growing bandwagon against Agan makes me uneasy. I wasn't much impressed with her plan to "vote" for the BW, but she herself didn't seem to push it that hard. More like just sounding out ideas. Now, I know she's a joyfully effective Cobbler , but it seems funny how so many jumped on after Eomer gave her the first vote (which was not well reasoned at all).

Volo hasn't played in a long time, so it would feel somewhat unsporting to vote for him on Day 1. However, he looks rather shifty to me at this point.

Originally Posted by Volo

Contrary to Agan's idea of having a common vote for BW extermination, sponsored by TB, I think it will be more sensible to not to anger BW at Day. If BW is in danger of being lynched, xe will most likely start revealing things in favour of the Wolves, such as xis mildly educated hunches about the identities of the Gifted.

No mention there of thinking Agan is suspicious because of the plan, just a disagreement with it.

Eomer voted Agan, then Nog came out saying his "Cobblerometer (TM) flashes red and is overheating with Aganzir."

Originally Posted by Volo

Noggie doesn't bother with pleasantries and joins the Day with quite harsh words indeed. I sort of agree with his point, an evil Agan could very well be so bold as to mislead the discussion with something like that. But let's not get too jumpy yet.

I myself got the bad vibe from Greenie. Her painting of the worst-case scenario felt somewhat... mischevious. Additionally Agan liking Greenie instead of finding her suspicious points to an abnormality. This is just a hunch and I'll add that I've found Greenie suspicious all the time after her first game in which she was Wolf. But what do you think?

So, Volo picks up the suspicion on Agan, though he also says he didn't like Greenie painting the "worst-case scenario".

Then:

Originally Posted by Volo

An hour of silence. What a bore. Would have said something myself, but having gone through the thread a few times in a non-cronological order, I have come to few new thoughts, most of which are better left unsaid.

If nothing happens in the next ten minutes I'll have to vote (both me and computer falling asleep), and the vote will be for Agan.

And a vote for Agan, followed by Sally doing the same thing.

No sir, I don't like it.

x/d with the previous four

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Greenie

Just in general, then - I'm *gasp* ok with Nogrod

Now that's abnormal - and you don't mind the holes in his arguments against Agan's plans which she, me and yourself have pointed out? (note that I do disagree with her plans, I only think they've got enough faults without construing ones that aren't there)
[QUOTE=Greenie]and got a vague bad feeling about Pitch's first post. Checked back and it's mostly just a feeling, accompanied maybe by this:

Don't know, there's something in the way he seems to have given much thought to how the BW situation looks from a wolf's point of view.

*sigh*It's just my way - I like to think things through, regardless of my role, and when I'm innocent, I try to put myself in the wolves' fur and imagine how they would react to a given situation in order to better figure them out. But I do the same when I'm a wolf, and sally once pinned a Pitchwolf based on that, so I see where you're coming from.

Originally Posted by sally

If the wolves win, they'll gang up and kill the BW

They can't (see the rules). They can only try to get xem lynched.

Originally Posted by sally re Eomer

This doesn't surprise me. Also, I't like to point out the "qwight" there. Because I can, basically, and because I fancy it.

Yeah, he's been making a lot of these puns ('barrowing' for borrowing, etc.). But he enjoys confusing us, and he won't start making sense before Day 2 at the earliest.

I don't really know what to think this incipient Agan bandwagon. Again, it's not impossible that she's a cobbler or a cobblerish-acting wolf (definitely not the BW though, she's been giving far too much thought to how to exterminate xem), but it's far from conclusive in my eyes. OK, this is Day 1 and all that, but I'd still like better evidence.

(x-ed from #70 down)

[A Little Green]

Since I'm really taking after my dad and apparently unable to stop refreshing the page and go to bed, I can answer this:

Originally Posted by Pitch

Now that's abnormal - and you don't mind the holes in his arguments against Agan's plans which she, me and yourself have pointed out? (note that I do disagree with her plans, I only think they've got enough faults without construing ones that aren't there)

Oh yes, those arguments were flawed - but what people often forget is that "making sense" doesn't equal innocent nor "flawed arguments" wolf. Nog's posting just didn't look wolvish to me because it wasn't one bit careful or calculated. And in addition to that, my empirical research shows that a Nog I disagree with (like this one) is most often an innocent one. (I have a history of always suspecting him and he always turns out innocent - and the once I didn't suspect him because he seemed to make so much sense and be so nice was when he turned out to be a wolf.)


EDIT: x-ed with Nog and honorary Boromod

[wilwarin538]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

Nog have you (or I) misunderstood something or are we just on a totally different wavelength? Because I have no idea what you're talking about. Everybody can be stunned but the BW (although hmm I can't remember it being said anywhere that she can't stun herself).

Ok, I think I understand your point a bit better now (now that it was pointed out that the Ordos are told when they are stunned), it would not actually make it so that the Gifteds are revealing, since everyone can be stunned and all they would have to say is "I was stunned last Night", and it would narrow down the possibilities for who the BW is. But to do that we would have to assume that the Wolves and Cobblers are going along with this and would be coming forward if stunned, and that doesn't seem like something they'd want to do (I don't think cooperating with us is their main objective) and also what I said before, if the BW's target is also the Night kill then he can come forward as the person who was stunned, and there would be no way to check if he's telling the truth, and then we'd cross him off the list of BW suspects and that would be bad. So I see your point, that it could work, but I don't think we should do it, still a lot of things that can go wrong.

Like I said before, I say we let the BW be for now, since he has no connections to anyone it would be really hard to try and pick him out and we could really just end up wasting a lot of time trying to find him, when Wolves should always be our priority. Let's leave it to Tom and hope he gets lucky (or we get lucky), until we have more information on a later Day.

So I don't actually think Agan is all that suspicious, I think she just has a very different way of looking at things, and she wasn't saying the Gifteds should reveal like Nog was saying (and that I initially thought), she seems to just be trying to figure out a way we can get some sort of advantage over this strange new role.

Now Glirdypie looked bad to me before that crazy vote (the randomness of it, not just cause it was for me, though him being my BFF and all, that does hurt ), I don't get why he thought Agan's idea had anything to do with the Cobblers, perhaps he's a Cobbler getting a bit paranoid? I don't know, he just seems all over the place and I don't really understand what he's talking about, seems very nervous to me.

And it seems that some people are disagreeing with Lottie's idea about leaving the BW alone for Tom to get him. I don't completely understand why, since letting Tom do his job would actually help us save a lynch for someone else, rather than wasting a lynch and wasting Tom's ability. Yes, that same Night the BW could stun someone important, or stun Tom himself, but in that case we'd just lynch the BW the next Day and we wouldn't be that much further behind. Getting the extra lynch oppurtunity seems worth it to me. Of course if this is late in the game with fewer players (when the BW is more likely to stun someone important) than I would say no, we should lynch him immediately, but if the Seer was to come out toMorrow and reveal the BW, it would be a safe time to just leave it to Tom. I don't think Lottie's suggestion is all that bad.

x'ed with Sally, Agan and Greenie

[Pitchwife]

First impressions up to now:

1. INNOCENT
Mr Unculpable (that's me)

2. LOOKING GOOD
Shasta - his one post so far was fine and very reasonable, I'd like more of the same

3. LOOKING MOSTLY GOOD
Nerwen - mostly very reasonable, except her post about "how to get rid of Tom"; if that was a joke (as I think most probable, it can't really see her thinking that in earnest), it could have done with a smiley for disambiguation.
wilwa - agrees with Lottie on not 'wasting a lynch' on the BW (not good IMO); otherwise pretty reasonable and engaged, no wilwolf chirpyness (good)
Zil - is his usual laid back, reasonable and laconic self; don't trust him out of my eyesight, but more on general principles than because of anything really suspicious as of now.

4. LOOKING STILL SLIGHTLY MORE GOOD THAN BAD
Agan - is all over the place with plans and ideas which I don't find very helpful at all, interspersed with a lot of good points here & there; I wouldn't quite rule out the possibility of her being the cobbler, but mostly, she looks to me up to now more genuine and like an innocent doing some experimental thinking aloud than a baddie.
Nogrod - I agree with him about Agan's plans, not so sure I agree with his conclusions; and this

Originally Posted by Nog

She comes up with the idea that those who have been stunned should come forwards eg. the seer and the ranger should reveal?

is nonsense - like a gifted can't say "I was stunned last Night" without having to say "So I couldn't dream/protect"? Did he really not get that, or is he trying to make Agan's suggestion look worse than it already is? On the other hand, that's been the first reasoned suspicion of the Day, bonus points for that
Volo - I can't quite follow all of his thoughts about the BW, but he doesn't look too bad all in all; in any case I haven't played with him before, so bar any blatant wolvery he'll get a pass toDay

5. COULD GO EITHER WAY
Eomer - his behaviour and vote rather remind me of my Eo-packmate from a few games ago; problem is, they also remind me of an innocent Eomer I've played with before, so I don't really have a clue.
Greenie - wants to discuss cobblers rather than BW, which isn't necessarily evil per se, except it could be an attempt by a Little Green Wight to distract us from discussing her role with her worst-case scenario of five baddies working in team; good point about wolvish vs wightish knowledge & behaviour in #37, though.
TEW - protests his innocence a bit much indeed (btw, Shasta, it's 'thou dost', not 'you doth'); first says we should lynch all baddies (good), then flipflops and agrees with Lottie and Glirdan to leave the BW be (not good); some observations on BW, wolf and cobbler behaviour which I don't quite agree with, but don't look devious IMO.

6. LOOKING NOT SO GOOD
Glirdan - first (in chronological order) this:

Originally Posted by Glirdan

After all, TBW is only really dangerous to our Seer and Ranger, and at the start of the game, xe is as blind to them as the rest of us. There is always the chance that xe gets one of them on sheer dumb luck, but that's a 1 in 16 shot, and if the Ranger is anywhere near as good as I was last game [ ] that won't be a problem.

'Only' dangerous to the best assets we have vs 3 wolves and 2 cobblers???
Second, I don't really get how we could use Agan's voting plan to 'oust the cobblers'. Confusing.
Third, his vote is plain nonsense (with all the discussion we've had toDay, you can't do better than a random vote?).

7. LOOKING FURRY/PEACHY/SKELETAL
Lottie - leave the BW alone if we have a chance to lynch xem? No, no, and no again, and I can't see an innocent suggesting that if she's thought out the ramifications; could well be the BW herself, or a cobbler or wolf trying to keep the BW around as long as xe won't prevent any Night-kills.

8. NO IDEA FOR LACK OF INPUT
Kath - exists and has posted, wow!
Form - hates Day 1, as susual; waiting for more
sally - nothing but early banter; has a cold, therefore excused for now

Conclusions (as of now, liable to be revised on further evidence):

WON'T VOTE FOR
Anybody from group 1-4 and 8

PROBABLY WON'T VOTE FOR
Group 5

MIGHT VOTE FOR
Group 6, i.e. Glirdan

WILL PROBABLY VOTE FOR
Group 7, i.e. Lottie


EDIT: x-ed from #64 down

[A Little Green]

Okay, looks like it's my bed-time. I was debating between Pitch (for a vague feeling from one post) and Glirdan (looking the worse out of the (semi-)random voters). Will vote for

++ Glirdan

Because I feel better voting with a reason than voting with a vague gut-feeling. So just to repeat what I said before: a random vote on Day 1 is not evil-looking because it's annoying (I don't vote for lynch because something is annoying, because annoying doesn't equal evil), but because it is an excellent cover for a wolf. It's an easy way to cover one Day's lynch, and no one can point out any flaws in the logic because there is no logic - and any criticisms can be answered with "It was Day 1, I had nothing better!" But the thing is, anyone has something better than totally random - except for those who know almost everyone's alignment already and don't actually have suspects at all, and have to make everything up (ergo the wolves). So, shortly, Glirdan's vote gave me the impression of a wolf looking for an easy pass through the first Day without getting his hands dirty.

Will try to get to bed now. Good night!


EDIT: x-ed with Pitch, Sally and Agan

[A Little Green]

A few quick comments before bed.. (Ouch, I'm starting to sound like my dad )

Pitch's post I crossed with made me feel loads better about him. (Plus I'm impressed by how many reasoned opinions he can have at this point!) Good I didn't end up voting him. Still keeping an eye open though, we all know how agreeable he can be

I don't like the Agan-wagan (no sorry, wagon, couldn't resist). Eomer's vote like I've said before was bantery; Volo's reasoning I'm not sure I understand at all, and Sally's looks - bandwaggonish. I'm really torn about Agan, for the most part she's been stirring up discussion and coming up with all kinds of plans, could be a bold Aganwolf attempting to lead and manipulate us, could just as well be an innocent Agan trying actively to make strategies that would benefit us. So, in sum, I haven't seen anything from her that would strongly point either way, which is why I don't think she's our worst option toDay (apart from the fact that she hasn't played in a long while), but certainly not the best, either: I think we have better candidates.


EDIT: x-ed with Wilwa - stop x-posting with me guys, I'm trying to leave!

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

and this is nonsense - like a gifted can't say "I was stunned last Night" without having to say "So I couldn't dream/protect"? Did he really not get that, or is he trying to make Agan's suggestion look worse than it already is?

Think of yourself as a gifted in a game and learn you were stunned - so someone was already after you! Would you like to bring yourself to the spotlight the next Day calling "hey, it was me the BW picked! Probably for no reason, we must have a reaally bad BW choosing an innocent like that!"

About the BW and the wolves "joining forces" - what are their chances of doing it and their willingness to do it? BW needs kills happening as fast as they can, so she would love to pick the ranger - but she might be happy if the seer gets a wolf or two (so not happy to stun the seer)? Then again the wolves would love to see the BW stun the ranger and the seer as many times as possible, but they'd have to make us lynch her sooner or later.

So I think there is an unworded truce between the two sides now as in the beginning their aspirations do meet. But the going will get rough between them thel ess people there are - especially if the number of wolves gets down early on.

The problem to them is I think this: in the beginning they might wish to co-operate, but there's little to go on finding the other side - in the endgame there might be chances of locating the other side, but then they are already deadly enemies...

Originally Posted by Agan

2. I might have misunderstood something, but I don't see why they couldn't win together. If the BW could only win with the village, why isn't she officially on our side?

Wasn't it said the BW is like a werebear, a team of her own?

Bah, you guys keep posting too fast...

[wilwarin538]

Originally Posted by Volo

Yowiebowiedavidglowie!
1. Contrary to Agan's idea of having a common vote for BW extermination, sponsored by TB, I think it will be more sensible to not to anger BW at Day. If BW is in danger of being lynched, xe will most likely start revealing things in favour of the Wolves, such as xis mildly educated hunches about the identities of the Gifted. As long as TB is alive, it is better not to make an open enemy out of BW. Ok, xe is be against us, and we against xim, but there is mutual benefit in not concentrating too much in the demise of the other party. Instead, the Wolves.
2. The BW needs to be the last wight standing, so it is in xis favour to keep at least one Wolf alive, for the game to progress faster. Now if(when) we manage to lynch two Wolves, BW will be quite the Cobbler, though not as self-sacrificing as one. At that point especially it would be beneficial not to have xim reveal what xe knows openly.

First, I don't understand why you think the BW will get any information from who he's stunned. Second, why on earth would he reveal himself? The village could then lynch him, or Tom could then kill him, he would never do that, even if he was being lynched.

Just noticed this:

Originally Posted by Boro

I originally thought if no more wolves remain the B-W would still just continue stunning at night and then lynch people during the day. However, this may unecessarily drag out the game, so after some Modly deliberation. If no more wolves remain, the B-W's powers increase and instead of just being stunned at night, the person is stone-cold dead. Final decision.

Thanks. That clears that up. So basically the BW could totally be on our side right now. He can help get rid of the wolvies and then he will get his magic killing powers, which he probably would really like to have. So right now he is on our side in the sense that he also wants the wolves dead, but once that's accomplished he'll want to kill everyone.

x'ed with Agan x 2 and Nog

[wilwarin538]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

So, Boro, how about the BW winning with the wolves?

Can't happen, he needs to be alone at the end, which means no more wolves. Once the wolves are gone he can slowly pick off the remaining innocents (and I guess the Cobblers would be innocents at that point, if the wolves are gone, or would they start helping the BW?)

Oh, and another question, if the wolves were to kill Barliman the same Night that BW chooses Barliman, does that mean the wolves still get a kill the following Night?

[Aganzir]

Pitch guess what? I'm drinking mate.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

And when people tell, the wolves have a good candidate for consideration ("the BW thought of that as a gifted, let's consider her/him as well more closely").

I still disagree with this. Who said the BW will only try to stun the gifteds? How about trying to find Ferny, or even a wolf to make things more difficult for them? You misunderstood what I originally meant, fine, why do you have to keep implying things that weren't there? I already realised it was a bad idea, thanks to wilwa.

And if you're innocent Agan, please help us finding suspicious behaviour.

Ah but I am. Or doesn't your behaviour count as suspicious by your standards?

Okay thanks Boro.

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

Yes!, and I think we've covered that rather extensively, not to mention it's been stated over-explicitely in the rules, so I marvel how an innocent Agan seriously couldn't have got it.

I was under the impression the BW only needed to survive till the end - I didn't apparently interpret "last man standing" quite so literally. But yeah this makes things clearer.

edit: xed with Kath - I provided a tally in #85.

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Nog replying to me re Agan's 2nd plan

Think of yourself as a gifted in a game and learn you were stunned - so someone was already after you! Would you like to bring yourself to the spotlight the next Day calling "hey, it was me the BW picked! Probably for no reason, we must have a reaally bad BW choosing an innocent like that!"

Yes, but the BW doesn't know who the gifted's are, they can only guess, just like the wolves; and like the wolves, they can be lucky and hit the nail on the head, but (speaking from personal experience) just as often or more often they'll be as much groping in the dark as the ordos. As I've said, there's a lot of problems with Agan's plan, but that's not one of them.
(Unless, say, the narration should happen to mention that e.g. the Seer's dream was blocked by the BW. In this case, the Seer obviously shouldn't say anything about being stunned, and any innocent worth a pinch of salt should know better than say they weren't and help the wolves finding the Seer by default.)

Originally Posted by Nog

About the BW and the wolves "joining forces" - what are their chances of doing it and their willingness to do it? BW needs kills happening as fast as they can, so she would love to pick the ranger - but she might be happy if the seer gets a wolf or two (so not happy to stun the seer)? Then again the wolves would love to see the BW stun the ranger and the seer as many times as possible, but they'd have to make us lynch her sooner or later.

So I think there is an unworded truce between the two sides now as in the beginning their aspirations do meet. But the going will get rough between them the less people there are - especially if the number of wolves gets down early on.

The problem to them is I think this: in the beginning they might wish to co-operate, but there's little to go on finding the other side - in the endgame there might be chances of locating the other side, but then they are already deadly enemies...

Yes, yes, and yes. I think I said as much in fewer words already.

Originally Posted by Nog

Wasn't it said the BW is like a werebear, a team of her own?

Yes!, and I think we've covered that rather extensively, not to mention it's been stated over-explicitely in the rules, so I marvel how an innocent Agan seriously couldn't have got it. Hmmm...
Someone, I think wilwa?, has raised the question what would happen if the sole survivors are BW + a lone wolf or BW + a lone innocent. BW can't kill the wolf, BW can't kill the innocent; wolf can't kill BW, innocent can't lynch BW*, so I guess both of these scenarios would be considered a draw. What would happen if the last survivors are BW and Tom? Tom could kill BW -> village victory; unless BW stuns him, but then Tom will get xem the next Night - xe can't stun the same person two Nights in a row, can xe?
*(or wait - actually, if BW and lone innocent vote for each other, there'll be a coin-flip, so we might still get lucky!)
Anyway, there's no way the BW can win with either the wolves or the village.

(x-ed with the mod: Oops! Adjust what I said about endgame scenarios accordingly.)

EDIT: also x-ed with #81 down