Werewolf LXXXIII: The Nightmare on the East Road

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

what exactly do two you mean with "the BW can even be really useful later on" (to whom?) and "whether she plays for us or for the wolves"?

I can't naturally speak for Volo, but I see the BW as a possible extra cobbler. Maybe it's too rash of me to think she'd choose sides before the result of the game is certain, but she can a) try to stun a wolf, or b) try to stun an innocent. Or she might just have fun and stun whomever she wants, in which case she just brings more chaos into a game with already two cobblers.

Originally Posted by Volo

If BW is in danger of being lynched, xe will most likely start revealing things in favour of the Wolves, such as xis mildly educated hunches about the identities of the Gifted.

Where did that come from? I find it unlikely the BW can get any more information than the rest of us just from her stunning.

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

Oh well, have to leave now. I'll vote Aganzir simply due to the fact that she's posted so much when there's nothing to talk about yet. Trying to muddy the waters, obviously. Guilty as sin.

Eomer you're stupid! :-p

Originally Posted by Nogrod

My Cobblerometer (TM) flashes red and is overheating with Aganzir.

Awww Nog! This is so nostalgic. You never like anything I say, do you?

the seer and the ranger should reveal? --- but on the other it would also tell TBW that she didn't get it right.

What are you talking about? I fail to see how telling they were stunned would reveal the seer and the ranger. And who exactly is the BW supposed to be looking for? Revealing you've been stunned doesn't prove your innocence, it only proves you're not the BW. Also, I can't see why anybody would bother to claim falsely they were stunned - if more than one said it, fine, we'd know there was something rotten going on.
However, wilwa brought up a good point:

Originally Posted by wilwarin538

what if the person he blocked is the one that gets night killed?

I hadn't even thought of it. It basically undermines my point, so yeah.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

A wolf claiming she was stunned - should we think she is innocent? A cobbler claiming she was stunned - what does it tell us? A gifted telling she was stunned (trying to act like an ordo) - do we believe her, do the wolves wish to check her?

Nog have you (or I) misunderstood something or are we just on a totally different wavelength? Because I have no idea what you're talking about. Everybody can be stunned but the BW (although hmm I can't remember it being said anywhere that she can't stun herself).

Originally Posted by Volo

Additionally Agan liking Greenie instead of finding her suspicious points to an abnormality.

That's because it is abnormal.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

At the moment Tom works alone, but it need not be so. We the village could decide by vote whom Tom tries to drive away. If the one who got the most votes (or, in case of a tie, reached the biggest number first/last) is still alive the next day, we know she isn't the BW.

Too many issues with this. Also, the BW is a she, are they? Good to know.

Originally Posted by Aganzir

Ah but what happens if the wolves attack the BW? They will know who she is and should they choose so, they can join forces. Of course it's highly risky assuming the BW decides she has better chances if she plays for the village, but still... That's the ultimate worst-case scenario: three wolves, two cobblers and the BW all playing together.

Problems.

1. How will the BW know who the wolves are?
2. Why would they side with the wolves? If the wolves win, they'll gang up and kill the BW, because they'll know who is not one of them. That just doesn't work.

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

How can you people make such long posts already? It's qwight ridiculous. I can't think of any interesting points on rules and theory; all I can think about is lynching Kath. XP

This doesn't surprise me. Also, I't like to point out the "qwight" there. Because I can, basically, and because I fancy it.

Originally Posted by Formendacil

P.S. Eomer, dear, you can't kill BOTH Kath and me--not in the course of one day, anyway. How about you flip a coin for us--I'll be Heads.

He can if he's a wolf. Just sayin'.

Originally Posted by Volo

Noggie doesn't bother with pleasantries and joins the Day with quite harsh words indeed. I sort of agree with his point, an evil Agan could very well be so bold as to mislead the discussion with something like that. But let's not get too jumpy yet.

I myself got the bad vibe from Greenie. Her painting of the worst-case scenario felt somewhat... mischevious. Additionally Agan liking Greenie instead of finding her suspicious points to an abnormality. This is just a hunch and I'll add that I've found Greenie suspicious all the time after her first game in which she was Wolf. But what do you think?

I concur. It would be very like Agan to distract the village with a secondary plan of killing the BW in order to lessen the pressure on the wolves. I could totally see it.

I've not looked hard enough at Greenie (not really at all, in fact) to say anything either way. I'll hope to look at her toMorrow and see what I think of the post.


Okay, kids, I will NOT be back after this post, period. Too many errands to run after work and possibly lots of work to do this afternoon anyway. Thus, a vote.

++Agan

There's a chance her BW plan is actually innocent, but I don't think she would be thinking so far ahead as an ordo, and as a gifted (the seer at least) she would likely rather keep her head down and worry about finding the BW and exposing them herself. Thus, I don't think it's necessarily a completely evil scheme, but I think she wants to get rid of another opponent right off the bat, and since the BW doesn't pose much of a threat to the village right now, that leaves her as evil.

And now I have to go. Sorry for the lack of me. I'm trusting our beloved Boro to text me the lynch result, as I quite want to know what you get up to while I'm gone. Until toMorrow, comrades!


EDIT: x'd since Agan's last, and thus with Volo's vote. Seems like there'll be a wagon banding together. Hope it's a good one!

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

There's a chance her BW plan is actually innocent, but I don't think she would be thinking so far ahead as an ordo

What BW plan? As far as I know, I had two.

Not that it's probably going to make much of a difference to you, but I thought of the first one (revealing you've been stunned) before I got my role. Too bad I didn't apparently think it through, but there you have it.

1. How will the BW know who the wolves are?
2. Why would they side with the wolves? If the wolves win, they'll gang up and kill the BW, because they'll know who is not one of them. That just doesn't work.

1. If they're skillful, they have a way of letting her know. Something being unlikely or difficult doesn't make it impossible.
2. I might have misunderstood something, but I don't see why they couldn't win together. If the BW could only win with the village, why isn't she officially on our side?

I really don't like sally's vote and her reasons behind it. It's basically just repeating what others have said, and it doesn't even make sense.

[Inziladun]

At work and about to leave the office for a bit, but a few thoughts first.

The growing bandwagon against Agan makes me uneasy. I wasn't much impressed with her plan to "vote" for the BW, but she herself didn't seem to push it that hard. More like just sounding out ideas. Now, I know she's a joyfully effective Cobbler , but it seems funny how so many jumped on after Eomer gave her the first vote (which was not well reasoned at all).

Volo hasn't played in a long time, so it would feel somewhat unsporting to vote for him on Day 1. However, he looks rather shifty to me at this point.

Originally Posted by Volo

Contrary to Agan's idea of having a common vote for BW extermination, sponsored by TB, I think it will be more sensible to not to anger BW at Day. If BW is in danger of being lynched, xe will most likely start revealing things in favour of the Wolves, such as xis mildly educated hunches about the identities of the Gifted.

No mention there of thinking Agan is suspicious because of the plan, just a disagreement with it.

Eomer voted Agan, then Nog came out saying his "Cobblerometer (TM) flashes red and is overheating with Aganzir."

Originally Posted by Volo

Noggie doesn't bother with pleasantries and joins the Day with quite harsh words indeed. I sort of agree with his point, an evil Agan could very well be so bold as to mislead the discussion with something like that. But let's not get too jumpy yet.

I myself got the bad vibe from Greenie. Her painting of the worst-case scenario felt somewhat... mischevious. Additionally Agan liking Greenie instead of finding her suspicious points to an abnormality. This is just a hunch and I'll add that I've found Greenie suspicious all the time after her first game in which she was Wolf. But what do you think?

So, Volo picks up the suspicion on Agan, though he also says he didn't like Greenie painting the "worst-case scenario".

Then:

Originally Posted by Volo

An hour of silence. What a bore. Would have said something myself, but having gone through the thread a few times in a non-cronological order, I have come to few new thoughts, most of which are better left unsaid.

If nothing happens in the next ten minutes I'll have to vote (both me and computer falling asleep), and the vote will be for Agan.

And a vote for Agan, followed by Sally doing the same thing.

No sir, I don't like it.

x/d with the previous four

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Greenie

Just in general, then - I'm *gasp* ok with Nogrod

Now that's abnormal - and you don't mind the holes in his arguments against Agan's plans which she, me and yourself have pointed out? (note that I do disagree with her plans, I only think they've got enough faults without construing ones that aren't there)
[QUOTE=Greenie]and got a vague bad feeling about Pitch's first post. Checked back and it's mostly just a feeling, accompanied maybe by this:

Don't know, there's something in the way he seems to have given much thought to how the BW situation looks from a wolf's point of view.

*sigh*It's just my way - I like to think things through, regardless of my role, and when I'm innocent, I try to put myself in the wolves' fur and imagine how they would react to a given situation in order to better figure them out. But I do the same when I'm a wolf, and sally once pinned a Pitchwolf based on that, so I see where you're coming from.

Originally Posted by sally

If the wolves win, they'll gang up and kill the BW

They can't (see the rules). They can only try to get xem lynched.

Originally Posted by sally re Eomer

This doesn't surprise me. Also, I't like to point out the "qwight" there. Because I can, basically, and because I fancy it.

Yeah, he's been making a lot of these puns ('barrowing' for borrowing, etc.). But he enjoys confusing us, and he won't start making sense before Day 2 at the earliest.

I don't really know what to think this incipient Agan bandwagon. Again, it's not impossible that she's a cobbler or a cobblerish-acting wolf (definitely not the BW though, she's been giving far too much thought to how to exterminate xem), but it's far from conclusive in my eyes. OK, this is Day 1 and all that, but I'd still like better evidence.

(x-ed from #70 down)

[A Little Green]

Since I'm really taking after my dad and apparently unable to stop refreshing the page and go to bed, I can answer this:

Originally Posted by Pitch

Now that's abnormal - and you don't mind the holes in his arguments against Agan's plans which she, me and yourself have pointed out? (note that I do disagree with her plans, I only think they've got enough faults without construing ones that aren't there)

Oh yes, those arguments were flawed - but what people often forget is that "making sense" doesn't equal innocent nor "flawed arguments" wolf. Nog's posting just didn't look wolvish to me because it wasn't one bit careful or calculated. And in addition to that, my empirical research shows that a Nog I disagree with (like this one) is most often an innocent one. (I have a history of always suspecting him and he always turns out innocent - and the once I didn't suspect him because he seemed to make so much sense and be so nice was when he turned out to be a wolf.)


EDIT: x-ed with Nog and honorary Boromod

[wilwarin538]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

Nog have you (or I) misunderstood something or are we just on a totally different wavelength? Because I have no idea what you're talking about. Everybody can be stunned but the BW (although hmm I can't remember it being said anywhere that she can't stun herself).

Ok, I think I understand your point a bit better now (now that it was pointed out that the Ordos are told when they are stunned), it would not actually make it so that the Gifteds are revealing, since everyone can be stunned and all they would have to say is "I was stunned last Night", and it would narrow down the possibilities for who the BW is. But to do that we would have to assume that the Wolves and Cobblers are going along with this and would be coming forward if stunned, and that doesn't seem like something they'd want to do (I don't think cooperating with us is their main objective) and also what I said before, if the BW's target is also the Night kill then he can come forward as the person who was stunned, and there would be no way to check if he's telling the truth, and then we'd cross him off the list of BW suspects and that would be bad. So I see your point, that it could work, but I don't think we should do it, still a lot of things that can go wrong.

Like I said before, I say we let the BW be for now, since he has no connections to anyone it would be really hard to try and pick him out and we could really just end up wasting a lot of time trying to find him, when Wolves should always be our priority. Let's leave it to Tom and hope he gets lucky (or we get lucky), until we have more information on a later Day.

So I don't actually think Agan is all that suspicious, I think she just has a very different way of looking at things, and she wasn't saying the Gifteds should reveal like Nog was saying (and that I initially thought), she seems to just be trying to figure out a way we can get some sort of advantage over this strange new role.

Now Glirdypie looked bad to me before that crazy vote (the randomness of it, not just cause it was for me, though him being my BFF and all, that does hurt ), I don't get why he thought Agan's idea had anything to do with the Cobblers, perhaps he's a Cobbler getting a bit paranoid? I don't know, he just seems all over the place and I don't really understand what he's talking about, seems very nervous to me.

And it seems that some people are disagreeing with Lottie's idea about leaving the BW alone for Tom to get him. I don't completely understand why, since letting Tom do his job would actually help us save a lynch for someone else, rather than wasting a lynch and wasting Tom's ability. Yes, that same Night the BW could stun someone important, or stun Tom himself, but in that case we'd just lynch the BW the next Day and we wouldn't be that much further behind. Getting the extra lynch oppurtunity seems worth it to me. Of course if this is late in the game with fewer players (when the BW is more likely to stun someone important) than I would say no, we should lynch him immediately, but if the Seer was to come out toMorrow and reveal the BW, it would be a safe time to just leave it to Tom. I don't think Lottie's suggestion is all that bad.

x'ed with Sally, Agan and Greenie