WW: LXXXV - The Lost Philosophers of Maiar

[Aganzir]

I don't like Legate's meta-reasoning. It makes me feel a bit better about him though because I think a wolf would actually bother to come up with more appropriate reasons to suspect people.

Also, just saying that I could kill Ozban on night 2 even in my first game with him if I had a reason to. And that as long as we don't know who the wolves are, we can't know who they found seerish.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

Also, just saying that I could kill Ozban on night 2 even in my first game with him if I had a reason to. And that as long as we don't know who the wolves are, we can't know who they found seerish.

I would not give that much credit to it either. But exactly as you said, you would kill him if you had reason to. I was not able to see any good reason to, even for possible Seerishness which somebody brought up, I believe he surely must not have been the only one, and maybe somebody would have had even more Seerish-looking personality.

I really don't know about Zil, because I can imagine that a) he might be just being framed, b) he might be a Cobbler (even more likely) - and in such case, I would prefer to lynch a Wolf to a Cobbler still. (And I know, I know, let's not start the debate about the dangerousness of the Cobbler, the point this time is, that I do not even know for sure if he is a Cobbler... basically it all comes down to if I can find anybody better to vote, anybody who looks more like a Wolf. My best pick would have been Rikae, but then again, we are back at the question if she would have taken part in the kills as they were - rather cluelessly-seeming - and also her retraction, as I said above, makes it look more like what innocent would do. So, now what...).

[A Little Green]

Ah. Thanks Legate, you're making much more sense now. (Or rather, I understand what you're saying now.) I don't know about the Ozzy kill though, it's a bit strange how you don't consider the possibility of that being an attempt to get the Seer. It's like Agan said, until we know who the wolves are we can't know who they found Seerish.

If a wolvish master plan to mess with our heads exists, I'm pretty convinced Legate is evil. If it doesn't, he's looking slightly better.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

Nessa --- The thing that bothers me most about her is that she's being too calm for an innocent openly framed by the wolves.

But not too calm to be a wolf who's twice been the runner-up for the lynch?

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

I was not able to see any good reason to, even for possible Seerishness which somebody brought up

How about "Agan wouldn't surely kill him first, therefore she's probably innocent?"

Inzil might be the cobbler. Or he might be a wolf pretending to be the cobbler. Or an innocent with extremely bad luck.
However if he turns out to be the cobbler, or Nessa to be a wolf, we need to find out why he saved her. Did someone tip him off?

My best pick would have been Rikae, but then again, we are back at the question if she would have taken part in the kills as they were - rather cluelessly-seeming - and also her retraction, as I said above, makes it look more like what innocent would do.

I'm not sure I understand what you're saying, but I don't think the kills look clueless. True, they haven't caught the seer yet - but I think they're being very efficient at bewildering us. (So I disagree on any notion of "quiet"/newbie wolves.)

As for Rikae's retraction, it certainly doesn't make me think her more innocent (even if it doesn't make me more suspicious of her either). Rikae knows full well how to appear innocent whatever her role.

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Agan

But not too calm to be a wolf who's twice been the runner-up for the lynch?

When you put it like that it sounds silly, yes. What I meant was that a wolf would have the time to get her bearings. She would know what is happening and why. In contrast to an innocent who is being constantly suspected by the village and framed by the wolves.

Ok, I need to dash now. Will see if I x-posted and then vote and be off.

[A Little Green]

Alrighty, then. I'm going with the best lead I have and vote

++ Inziladun

I hope to be able to make it back before DL, but I'm not sure.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Nessa Telrunya

Okay, to explain my suspicion of Rikae, I was very weirded out by how convenient it would be for a wolf for so much conversation to come of her post about Pitch. And most of it was about him, as well, taking the blame far away from her innocent-seeming phrasing.

This, at least, is consistent with what she said earlier.

Originally Posted by Aganzir

So you thought Nessa was wrong about Lottie - whom you didn't particularly want to lynch either?

Already explained that. Nessa's last post induced me to want to save her, even though I didn't see Lottie as all that suspicious.

Originally Posted by Aganzir

And even if they're both wolves, I think it would have been worth it to save her. As far as I recall, neither of them had been attacking the other strongly, so giving the decisive vote wouldn't necessarily have cleaned them. And if two wolves are suspected heavily, their actions are often damage control rather than trying to wriggle out of the noose.

That's true. And in this game, I think the wolves would not be so quick to "bus" one another. They want the double kills to go on as long as possible.

Originally Posted by Aganzir

Inzil, why did you leave voting until so late?

I was at work. Believe it or not, though I do my best to prioritize and not let things interfere with WW, there are times when I have to get some other things done.

Originally Posted by Aganzir

Inzil waits till it's almost DL:01 and votes for Lottie without an explanation other than "Legate-180". I suppose that was a necessary addition given that he had expressed concern of Nessa in #222 - but he hadn't given any inclination that he considered voting for her, unlike Lottie (whom he could have voted to save himself), so it feels somehow self-conscious to me.

I'd said in other places that I wasn't comfortable with Nessa. Here I'd suggested to Kit that Nessa could be her hunt. So yes, I thought "Legate 180" might explain what I was doing.

Speaking of Kit, nothing from her toDay. Gone for good, then?

Originally Posted by Aganzir

This doesn't really help me make up my mind about Inzil though. I'd be inclined to lynch him (at least rather than Nessa) just to be on the safe side but I'm worried what happens if he isn't a baddie after all.

I'm telling you that evil as I may appear, killing me will not help this village.

[Cailín]

Valier

#25 Confused about the deadline. Says Boromir88 perhaps looks too reasonable and asks Aganzir for an explanation of her feminist statement on the gender identity of the Seer (sort of a bewildering thing to do).

#81 Nothing

#90 Thinks Pitch and Nessa look fairly innocent. Wilwa looks ok. Expresses some suspicion of Rikae and Shasta, and thinks Lommy and Greenie are quiet in an OOC kind of way.

#91 Agrees with Wilwa.

#102 Suspects Inzil because of his vote for Nessa, and thinks she will vote Inzil or Rikae. (she is pretty consistently defending Nessa here)

#107 Some Seer-related comments. Does not approve of people trying to tell the Seer what to do.

#109 Agrees with Wilwa again

#139 & 140 Questions Lottie. Still suspicious of Inzil because of the vote for Nessa. Votes Inzil.

#146 Accepts Lottie's answer

#167 Thinks Inzil might be being framed by the death of Kath and Oz, or trying to be clever

#199 Agrees with Mac and thinks Kath and Oz were easy, traceless kills. Wonders why the wolves did not go for the Seer (honestly, if our wolf pack is incompetent - which is doubtful in this village - they will definitely after all the remarks we made about it). Defends herself and proclaims her Innocence.

#247 suspects Legate and Skip

#271 A list. Most of the people are don't knows - this is a very vague list for someone whom the wolves might have believed to be the Seer. The only possible Seer statement is on Rikae (whom she suspected yesterDay and thinks innocent now) and Skip whom she suddenly suspects quite strongly. Then again, she does not immediately vote for skip but mentions a whole list of possibles.

#281 Still defends Nessa and votes Skip.

So if the wolves thought Valier was the Seer, then Nessa and Rikae are looking fairly good, and Skip looks bad. I am not convinced - Valier was obviously not the Seer and I cannot quite see how the wolves would have confused her for one - but I will keep this in mind as I go over the posts of those of us actually still alive.

[Rikae]

Mac, I don't think it's so unlikely for a wolf to think either of two people might be a seer who dreamt him. Thinking that, the pack might eliminate both at once and plan to pass it off as a bluff, and, if that doesn't work, throw the "almost certainly dreamed" wolf under the bus. I would, anyway.

I keep disagreeing with Mac, but I find him innocentish. In his favor, he's very conscientious about new players, so I doubt he would have been OK with killing Oz so early.

I have bad feelings, still, about Pitch and Inzil, and also, although less formed, about Legate and Skip. I fear, though I can't imagne there isn't a wolf among them, that I don't judge between them well since I tend to place them all in the same "group" mentally - skillful, logical male players who joined the 'downs after I did and make rather controlled posts (although Skip's hunter joke might edge him out of that group).

I don't see much use in trying to determine the makeup of the pack with regard to loud and quiet... the village is roughly half and half, but wolves choose based on their individual paranoias, hunches, prejudices, etc. - not how loud or quiet they are - and a pack tends to zero in on someone multiple wolves want to kill, even if it's for different reasons. At least, in my experience, that's how it is - a voting sort of process. Trying to reconstruct it from the village side of things tends to be a bit of a distraction, actually, although there are some things - like who would not likely have killed Oz - that we can deduce.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

I don't know about the Ozzy kill though, it's a bit strange how you don't consider the possibility of that being an attempt to get the Seer. It's like Agan said, until we know who the wolves are we can't know who they found Seerish.

Of course it might have been, I would just imagine that the WWs could have had other targets too.

But anyway, maybe I am overcombinating stuff too and perhaps the WWs are simply going for those who suspect them, in which case it would be really simple and the Wolves are like Nessa, Zil and some others and we are just wasting days worrying about nothing when we should just lynch them.

Originally Posted by Aganzir

How about "Agan wouldn't surely kill him first, therefore she's probably innocent?"

That's of course one of the main reasons why I am not suspecting you yet

Originally Posted by Inziladun

Speaking of Kit, nothing from her toDay. Gone for good, then?

Her death (of her own resignation) is in the narration, I figure she told Nog she was pulling off for good.

I will be gone soon probably for a few hours, but will appear before DL for sure, and then vote.

[Cailín]

Went over Lommy's posts too, of course. She changed her mind about Inzil and Nessa over Night - both going from innocent to guilty in her eyes. Her first list was unSeerish with no certain statements, though she has consistently singled out Boromir88 as guiltless (and some others, but Boromir with the most constant conviction). Her second list was equally unSeerish and she had a reasonable argument for her suspicion of Zil (believing him to know who was going to be killed before it was announced because of his fast response to the Night's events). She was flip-flopping on Nessa.

Lommy was almost certainly not a we-are-looking-for-the-Seer kill but a let's-get-her-now-before-she-starts-making-sense kill or something involving Inzil (bluff, double bluff, you all know the drill).

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

What I meant was that a wolf would have the time to get her bearings. She would know what is happening and why. In contrast to an innocent who is being constantly suspected by the village and framed by the wolves.

I'm not sure about that, I think it's more of a playing style thing. I get mad when suspected regardless of my role, and I suppose some people always stay calm.

Originally Posted by Inziladun

Already explained that. Nessa's last post induced me to want to save her, even though I didn't see Lottie as all that suspicious.

I know but that isn't what I meant - I thought your phrasing looked funny.

I was at work.

I still think it was fishy to leave voting till the very last second but I guess that's fair enough.

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

That's of course one of the main reasons why I am not suspecting you yet

Wait, what? I say "I could be a wolf" and you say "That's why I don't suspect you"?

Originally Posted by Cailín

Lommy was almost certainly not a we-are-looking-for-the-Seer kill but a let's-get-her-now-before-she-starts-making-sense kill

Originally Posted by Inziladun

I find it curious that two of the most quiet players, who would seemingly be good "no-trail" kills, are still with us.

I don't think that's so curious. The less they speak, the less of a danger they are to the wolves. Even if they're right, they won't convince anyone if they don't post enough.

As an aside, I totally know why we chose Pericles for Rikae.

I was planning to analyse one of my Either people, but I'm feeling okay about Legate, Pitch has already been analysed twice, I'm tired of thinking about Nessa & Inzil, I want Boro to post more, and I have absolutely nothing on BG & Mänwe. This annoys me, so I suppose I'll just go through skip's posts. I'm starting now but it might take me long because I'm off to the grocery as soon as my seer friend (who randomly asked yesterday if we've already lynched Mac) gets out of the shower.

[Inziladun]

I find it curious that two of the most quiet players, who would seemingly be good "no-trail" kills, are still with us. I thought I'd look at ed.

Day 1

Originally Posted by elronds_daughter

Right, well, I had been content to sit and watch everyone else debate and glean what I could (mostly because I'm no good at thinking strategically at all), but I should probably say a brief piece before DL.

Mac and Boro have amused me greatly. In an unrelated item, they also make the most sense to me. I can't pinpoint why, but there doesn't seem anything particularly wolfish about them.

I agree with Legate's point about Inzil not coming across as suspiciously as last time.

So. Not voting any of those four. Yet.

Pitch seems shady, for reasons others have mentioned. If it was just "Hey, wait, why me?", then I wouldn't be so worried, but it's been "Hey, wait, why me? Also, here's a lot of words to make me seem like I'm contributing."

Agan doesn't look too bad to me, maybe a little shifty, but I'll have to go back and read through things again. I'll do the same with Lottie, since I'm not entirely sure where Legate's vote came from...

Right, that's it from me for now. I'll be back briefly before DL to vote, but likely not much more; I have to do rather a lot of driving today.

I guess the noteworthy thing here is that she finds Pitch "shady", when many others had already cast suspicion on him as well.

Nothing else until a late vote:

Originally Posted by elronds_daughter

++ Pitch

Sorry for cutting it so close. And I sincerely hope I'm not wrong...this feels like a shot in the dark...

At that time, Nessa was in the lead with four votes. I had three, and Pitch had two. It's unlikely at least that ed and Nessa are packmates, since ed's obvious move to save her would have been to vote for me instead of Pitch.

Day 2

Originally Posted by elronds_daughter

I'll try to give a more substantial post once I've had some sleep, but my feelings at the moment are...

Mac makes sense to me, and I can't seem him being guilty.

Inzil is behaving not at all like the Inzilawolf I have seen before, so I'm inclined to trust him.

I'm mildly worried about almost everyone who killed Sally. The lack of adequate reasoning bewilders me; but, then again, it may just have been Day-1 paranoia.

I still don't like the vibes I'm getting from Pitch.

Eomer worries me. There is a bit too much defensiveness...

Not really sure about other people. Legate is very analytical, but seems to me he's usually like that.

On the whole Kitanna situation...this is highly tragic. There may be tears.

Right, well. Now I've said my piece and I'm off to bed.

So, she's still not liking Pitch. Also worried about Eomer, and the people on the Sally-wagon. Says she doesn't think Mac looks guilty, and is inclined to trust me.

Originally Posted by elronds_daughter

Some scattered thoughts:

I've tried to read through as thoroughly as I can, but I don't think my brain has come to terms with it all yet.

I agree with (I think it was Shasta's's) point that we should wait on lynching Kit until toMorrow, if we even want to at all. There are pros and cons to consider.

Boro is a little worrisome, but Eomer and Pitch are more so.

Shasta is quieter than I expected him to be, which is a bit unnerving, but that's probably just unreasonable expectations on my part.

Inzil's first post toDay, and everyone's reactions to it, have begun to make me doubt his innocence somewhat.

Rikae could go either way. Having not played with her before, I'm very unsure.

I'll be back in a bit to vote. Hopefully I'll have made more sense of things by then.

Doesn't want to lynch Kit. Still worried about Pitch and Eomer, but she's now added Boro to the list of suspects. She now thinks I'm suspicious for my first post of the Day, which, honestly, is a silly reason to suspect me. It really isn't that difficult to scan the previous Day's votes, you know. She admits that other people thinking I looked bad for that post have influenced her thinking.

Originally Posted by elronds_daughter

I have a feeling my "maybe I should just be quiet so I won't say something stupid in my second game" is working just as well as "maybe I should talk a lot so I don't seem suspiciously quiet" last time. Phooey.

Thus, I'm not inclined to let considerations and votes for me alter my opinion of people.

I still think Inzil's mostly all right.

So.

++ Lottie

She seems the shadiest of all. Her Kit vote after the consensus had been to not vote that direction just seems to much like an easy way out.

Apparently decided I was all right after all. Disregarded earlier suspects in favor of Lottie, not liking her vote for revealed Hunter Kit. Rikae had said the same thing and had voted for Lottie, before retracting and voting for me. When ed voted, Nessa, Lottie and I were tied at three.

Conclusions? The votes have been easy ones, and both Days they've come in very near DL. What she's said has been consistent, though following in the tracks of others.
My gut wants to say she's innocent, but I could see a wolf there, too.

[Blind Guardian]

I am here. Sorry about not being around very much, I'm kinda incline just to quit. Mom wouldn't let me on the computer. -_-


Anyways, I still suspect Nessa, even more now. To me she looks wolf-ish. Now if you will excuse me, I'm going to look as Inzil...

[Blind Guardian]

Inzil


#24- jokes inrole, says he will return
# 48 Agrees with Agan on getting a wolf soon. Suspects Pitch. Will not lynch me on Day! SOmeother things...comments on DL.

#50 Jokes with Lottie

# 54 responds to Mac about wolves and the cobbler hinting early.

#59- Jokes with Boro and Rikae

#72- Comments on Kits 'easy vote' of Pitch Jokes on Ozban's Satan mistake.

#98 Votes nessa, says she sounds off.

DAY2

#166 'interesting' kills, wants to know why. Both had something to do with him...

#169 - jokes with Legate, does not like Sally-wagon

#193 Agrees that Ozban's death is strange. Did not think Sally as evil. Is not comfterble with Nessa or Mac.

#194 Might suspect Val

#196 Does not know why a baddie would false reveal as a hunter

#198 Is joking...?

#222- Doesn't know if Kit will be back after a day or never. Seems to think Kit wants to use her gift. (hunter) Is concerned about Val, nessa, Pitch and Mac

#232 responds to Skips joke-reveal as the Hunter. Jokes

#237 responds to Skip 's Hunter reveal

#261 doesn't want to vote for Kit or a quiet one.

#292 Doesn't like Val's vote.

302 Doesn't want to vote for Lottie

308 Would vote for ed

Votes for Lottie

Is sorry for voting for Lottie

Doesn't think people are going to listen to him

Comments on his vote

More vote comments

Sums up elronds_daughter's role. (took attention off himself it looks like)


Edit: xed since me


Edit2: That was my longest post ever!

[Cailín]

Thanks for that, Inzil.

I agree: elronds_daughter's posts and votes do not look good, but then skip (whom I now distrust because of Valier's death) voted for her yesterDay in what seemed to be an attempt at a convenient and excusable bandwagon, though he adequately described it as a random stab in the dark (not something that seems particularly useful right now). Of course, you yourself are a dodgy character as well.