WW: LXXXV - The Lost Philosophers of Maiar

[Macalaure]

Would like to skip for now
Nessa
Inzil
Skip

I don't think so
Aganzir (only one who's really looking innocent to me at the moment)
Greenie (innocent feeling, too)

No idea
e_d
Mänwe

Not unthinkable
Shasta
Wilwa
Rikae
BG
Cailín

Possible
Eomer (always have a hard time figuring him out. There's no question about him being a shrewd and logical wolf, though)
Legate (I suddenly have a bad feeling and I'm not sure why)

Very possible
Pitch
Boro
(as I said before)

I'm very uncomfortable with my large grey zone. One problem is, I think, that with a pack of four, we likely have some leader and some follower types in the pack. How do you detect a follower wolf unless they slip up during the day?

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

I'm very uncomfortable with my large grey zone. One problem is, I think, that with a pack of four, we likely have some leader and some follower types in the pack. How do you detect a follower wolf unless they slip up during the day?

The main point in this game this far is, with "leader" and "followers", you need to have such a "leader" that he/she approves of the kills which have been made. That really makes it a lot more difficult to figure it out with some quick and simple scheme. There are several people I cannot imagine doing it - unless it is just the reason why they are doing it. That all comes down to what I have said a few posts before, once we could lynch one Wolf, it would shed some light on the way they might have been planning this to be.

[A Little Green]

That is option 1. Basically the options, as I see it, are two: Either we have a pack composed fully of quiet ones, and then the kills are indeed rather of the "simple" sort, or then we have a pack with some truly seasoned players as you say, and then, who knows. But in any case, at least after looking at LRH and BG, they have rather interesting way of voting, particularly the former, like I said. But that's not all yet, I have to think about it.

I don't like the assumption that quiet wolves make simple kills, or that seasoned players are loud by default. It doesn't make sense to me.


EDIT: x-ed with Legate

[A Little Green]

ALMOST COMFORTABLE WITH
Macalaure - Nothing alarming this far, seems genuine.
Shasta - Likewise, though past experience has taught me never to trust him.
Rikae - Seems okay this far.
Boro - Could go either way. At the moment I'm leaning innocent on him, too. (Though I began having second thoughts as soon as I had written that.. Agh, I might use a closer look at him, too.)

NO IDEA
Eomer - Curiously enough he's under my radar, among the first I'll check when I have the time.
Wilwa - Looked slightly suspicious early on Day 1, then had a small quarrel with Agan that left me really confused, and now she's under dear Rudolph.
Ed - A classic submarine for me, no idea.
Pitchwife - Still no idea.
Blind Guardian - Too little to go on.
Mänwe - Too little to go on.
Aganzir - A headache. I'm leaving her alone for toDay.
Caílin - See Eomer.

NOT COMFORTABLE WITH
Nessa - I'm not comfortable with her track record. Her role could tell us a lot about others. The thing that bothers me most about her is that she's being too calm for an innocent openly framed by the wolves.
Inziladun - Agh. I think I've ranted enough about him already. Leaning wolf or cobbler at this point. I found him suspicious already before the Legate 180 -episode, and I'm still unconvinced an innocent Zil would have done that.
Skip - If he's a wolf, he's a daring one. But he has done bold moves before, and Valier's death does point at him.
Legate - Makes me uneasy. He's fishy on top of his normal wishy-washy.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

I don't like the assumption that quiet wolves make simple kills, or that seasoned players are loud by default. It doesn't make sense to me.

It is not like that, but I am speaking about BG, LRH, who definitely are quiet, and possibly Mänwe, of whom I don't know, but he has not been around for long.

Let me explain it once again. The point is not only about quiet wolves or something, but more about who would make the kills like these that were done. I would expect seasoned players - those who have been Wolves many times - to go mainly after the Seer. Which does not seem to be the case at least of the first Day, in my opinion. Ergo, for this reason, it would make more sense to suspect the players like LRH, BG, Nessa, perhaps Mänwe, and others, but not e.g. Mac, Rikae, Pitch, Zil, Agan, Boro... those are the people whom I would expect to make more "logical" kills.

The puzzling thing about this is that it makes it really difficult to find four Wolves among the rest of the players: there won't be too many left.

But of course, aside from that, a bit of meta-reasoning, I find it unlikely that some of the people who have been playing lately would kill Ozzy if they did not have good reason for it (which it seems to me that they didn't). That would rule out most of the people who have been playing lately, and would point more towards people who haven't been playing for some time or who themselves are not around very long: Rikae, Cailín, Mänwe, Mac, of those who have been playing recently but are not long for such a long time yet or whom I could imagine not minding as much whom they kill, maybe BG, LRH, Nessa, possibly also Eomer (?) or Wilwa (?)...

So basically, if I somehow combine this, then that gives the scope of my suspects. Which points more to the "quiet" ones.

But, to finish fully and give all that I am considering, there is the other possibility of the Wolves being fully logical and really following something with their kills - only we don't know what (framing Zil or Nessa, etc, etc), that's why we really desperately need to lynch first at least one of them (that's what I have said already several times, now it is in full context and I hope clear what I have in mind). Because then we might be able to figure out what is that they were doing.

EDIT: xed with one Green.