WW: LXXXV - The Lost Philosophers of Maiar

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

What I meant was that a wolf would have the time to get her bearings. She would know what is happening and why. In contrast to an innocent who is being constantly suspected by the village and framed by the wolves.

I'm not sure about that, I think it's more of a playing style thing. I get mad when suspected regardless of my role, and I suppose some people always stay calm.

Originally Posted by Inziladun

Already explained that. Nessa's last post induced me to want to save her, even though I didn't see Lottie as all that suspicious.

I know but that isn't what I meant - I thought your phrasing looked funny.

I was at work.

I still think it was fishy to leave voting till the very last second but I guess that's fair enough.

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

That's of course one of the main reasons why I am not suspecting you yet

Wait, what? I say "I could be a wolf" and you say "That's why I don't suspect you"?

Originally Posted by Cailín

Lommy was almost certainly not a we-are-looking-for-the-Seer kill but a let's-get-her-now-before-she-starts-making-sense kill

Originally Posted by Inziladun

I find it curious that two of the most quiet players, who would seemingly be good "no-trail" kills, are still with us.

I don't think that's so curious. The less they speak, the less of a danger they are to the wolves. Even if they're right, they won't convince anyone if they don't post enough.

As an aside, I totally know why we chose Pericles for Rikae.

I was planning to analyse one of my Either people, but I'm feeling okay about Legate, Pitch has already been analysed twice, I'm tired of thinking about Nessa & Inzil, I want Boro to post more, and I have absolutely nothing on BG & Mänwe. This annoys me, so I suppose I'll just go through skip's posts. I'm starting now but it might take me long because I'm off to the grocery as soon as my seer friend (who randomly asked yesterday if we've already lynched Mac) gets out of the shower.

[elronds_daughter]

I wish I had something substantial to contribute, but I'm afraid this is all still sort of a jumbled mess in my head, and other people are making more sense out of it than I can. Thus, I haven't made much of an account of myself, and it appears I've let myself get swept up in a most unfortunate bandwagon. Rats. Now the only person I still have any sort of a clear idea on is Mac, and that's mostly because he's seeming the most objective. I still don't think Inzil is a wolf, but it wouldn't surprise me if he's the cobbler. My formerly neutral feelings on Rikae are tending towards "seems innocent to me".

I'm not sure what to make of all this talk about the quiet ones, me being one of that number. I'm still trying to get my feet (which at this point in the game had better happen fast or I may doom the village). Twenty-four people was a lot to get my brain around. Now we're down to seventeen, but that's still a lot for my non-strategical mind.

I think I need a cup of tea to clear my head.

[skip spence]

Here and reading. That said today is going to be a bad day for participation for me. Have a bit of time now, that's all.

[wilwarin538]

Ok, I'm here, and I've tried to process everything.

I notice there's a lot of talk about the kills and how they don't seem to make a lot of sense, but I think everyone is forgetting something: the Cobbler sends in a suggestion.

Think about it; perhaps the wolves together are only deciding on 1 person, and then whoever the Cobbler suggests is who their 2nd person is (as long as it's not them, obviously). If they do that they may not really have their own reasons to kill the 2nd person, they're just trusting that perhaps the Cobbler spotted something (a Gifted hint perhaps) that they missed. This would also kind of seperate themselves from one of the kills, making it harder to track back to them. So perhaps we should be considering the kills from a Cobbler's perspective? I'm not sure if that all makes complete sense, and it depends on the wolf pack, they could just be ignoring the Cobbler, but we shouldn't forget that there's a 5th person who has a say at Night.

I also noticed lots of us (including myself) have been saying that some things are "too obvious" and I think we have to get out of that mindset. Sometimes things really are just as they seem, and wolves can easily do things that seem too obvious, hoping the village thinks that and ignores it.

I'm afraid I have to go to work in an hour, I thought toDay would be much better for me for participation, but it's not turning out that way. I'm going to skim back through and try to find a suspect.

x'ed since Agan

[Blind Guardian]

I have to go so i am going to vote

++Nessa

I have had a feeling about her since the beginning and it's not getting better.

(By the way, this game ends in the middle of my day, thus my early votes.)

[wilwarin538]

So, I have to go I'm afraid. I need to vote, and I don't have time to look at everyone closely, so I'm going to give my opinion on the two people who seem to be the ones everyone is considering.

I still don't get the Nessa thing, do people even have legitimate reasons to suspect her, or has she just become a fallback? I've just had the chance to skim through yesterDay, so maybe I just missed something, but I don't really get it. I know she said a couple odd things Day 1, but I don't really see anything else that is so incriminating that everyone keeps going for her. I definitely need to take my own close look at her, I just don't have the time to do that right now.

Inzil makes more sense to me. His last minute vote was strange (and if he's guilty Nessa does looks pretty bad), and his tone at the beginning of the Day today is really weird. His whole "I'll understand it if you lynch me". To me it always seems like innocents get a bit more upset when they're in danger of being lynched, and don't just sit back and take it (when you're innocent you don't want to get lynched because it's no good for the village, so if you really want to win you fight to stay alive so that the lynch can hopefully be used in a more useful manner, atleast that's how I see it). While a wolf may try to be understanding, saying that they don't mind dying to get some sympathy and maybe skate by. That's why I never get why people see defensiveness as a sign of guilt, because it's not just the wolves that want to stay alive, and wolves are less likely to want to make a big scene out of their defense. Him being a Cobbler would also make sense. His whole tone just seems like he's trying to be too cooperative, and is afraid to cause trouble.

So since I'm very quickly running out of time, I'm gonna go for Inzil, even if it is mostly on a gut thing:

++ Inzil

[skip spence]

l've had a look at yesterDay with a focus on the voting which eventually led to the lynching of Lottie. Sorry if the formatting comes out a bit messy!

The Day starts at 11.03 PM with

Originally Posted by Inzil

Interesting kill choices, I think. Kath, who voted for me, and Ozban, who followed my vote for Nessa. Why them?

Legate and Lottie comments early that this makes them feel better about Inzil. Leg's suspicions are later aroused though:

Originally Posted by Legate

I am starting to suspect Inzil. A bit, but anyway. Which is horrible, thinking that in such a case it would be, what, the fifth time in a row he was a Wolf?

Nessa makes an early vote for Rikae (for the second time). I never quite understood why Nessa's after Rikae? Care to explain?

#246 BG votes Nessa. "a feeling" and "too much confidence" is the explanation. Don't really understand that confidence thing to be honest...

#248 Mac says Inzil is an "amateur-wolf" if he'd make that first post as a wolf. Or is this what he'd have us think? Mac adds...

#254 Lottie votes Kit because she very uncharacteristically has no suspects at all

#256 I vote Elrond's daughter for being a submarine. This was a spur-of-the-moment decision as I got a call from a friend who needed help and had to leave.

#269 Eomer votes Nessa (2) "Nessa is still bothering me: she just feels like a wolf. The Ozban kill seems to tie in with it, so I'd be most inclined to kill Nessa today."

#274 Shasta votes Lottie because he doesn't like that Kit-vote. Me and Cailin has already expressed the same sentiment.

#275 Pitch votes Nessa (3) He thinks there might have been a wolf in the running on Day 1 but don't think it was Inzil.

#281 Val says she doesn't like the bandwagon against Nessa and votes Me (mostly because of that joke it seens)

#284 Greenie votes Inzil, mostly because that very quick comment on the kills and their significance. Thinks this is a bad sign. Lommy earlier made the same
point.

#291 Rikae votes Lottie (2) "For her Kitanna vote and for being a submarine."

#293 Lommy votes Inzil (2), I assume mostly because that early comment.

#294 Rikae retracts her Lottie-vote and goes for Inzil (3) instead

#296 Cailin votes Lottie (2) (eager to wash her hands ie the Kit-vote)

#298 Mac votes Lottie (3) "the only sensible option" ??

#303 elrond's daughter defends Inzil and votes Lottie (4)

#305 Agan asks for support: anyone into voting skip or ed? Inzil says maye ed; Legate maybe skip

#310 Agan votes Nessa (4) because the is the most quiet among the suspects.

#311 Legate votes Nessa (5) Think I missed why.. Why?

#314 On the deadline Inzil votes Lottie (5) who is lynched, because he was swayed be Nessa who popped up and defended Lottie.

If Nessa and Inzil are fellows this would be a very bold move. Yet it makes sense I guess. Perhaps he figured that one of them were bound to get lynched for this sooner or later, and which later a better alternative in this case with the double kills. Need to think more about this.

All this is giving me a bad feeling actually. If we lynch Inzil and he is innocent, what do we do then?

Another thing: I find it curious that Nessa did not retract her Rikae-vote and voted for say Lottie or Inzil to save herself. Why didn't you, Nessa?

[skip spence]

Originally Posted by Agan

Okay continuing my skip analysis now

I have no doubt you'll find me guilty, sweetheart

[skip spence]

Quick spontaneous list.

Eomer of the Rohirrim - Has voted Nessa twice now with sound reasoning. Innocent-leaning.

elronds_daughter - submarine and therefore hard to read. Don't care for that.

Macalaure - One of the loudest people. Doesn't always make that much sense to me though, will try to look closer at him if I find the time

Shastanis Althreduin - Seems rational and objective when he shows up. Wary of Shasta though.

wilwarin538 - Doesn't seem all that convincing to me.

Nessa Telrunya - Might well be a wolf I think. Evidence against her not favourable.

Pitchwife - Could be anything. Leaning innocent.

Inziladun - If he is innocent I feel sorry for him. Quite a bit stacked up against
him though.

Rikae - Innocent-feeling, but there's also this doubt in the back of my mind.

Boromir88 - Where is Boro and what happened to his attention-seeking?

A Little Green - No read.

Blind Guardian - Submarine and no read.

Mänwe - Has posted what twice? And very cryptically. Never voted. Tempted to vote him just because but probably won't.

Legate of Amon Lanc - Seems pretty genuine...

Aganzir - Looks less evil than she usually does which makes me wonder...

Caílin - Under the radar. Would like to have a better look at her.

Scary that there are 5 baddies in there. Will return soon with a vote.

[Cailín]

Eomer of the Rohirrim - Has voted Nessa twice now with sound reasoning. Innocent-leaning.

Ha! I like him too, but sound reasoning is strange praise for a "funny feeling".

I am fairly puzzled by skip's list, to be honest. However, Nessa´s claim that she would rather sacrifice herself so that we might take her suspicions of Rikae seriously is simply baffling, especially as she then continues to withdraw that apparently worthy-to-turn-myself-into-a-martyr-for suspicion.

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

If the latter was the case, we are living inside a horror. *dreads* I mean, if the WWs are already for two Nights doing nothing more than worrying about that they have been basically all caught this far and it is only a matter of time before they are lynched one by one, and yet still we in fact don't lynch either of them this far, it must be a rather pleasing picture for them.

That would be a nightmare, so have we reached the stage where Pitch, Nessa, and Inzil are just huge question marks we have to find them out or they will forever haunt us? Or do you think we should start widening the search, Legate?

If it has been as you say, then even with the few bad lynchings so far, the wolves are in a rather precarious, teetering on the edge situation, where once you remove one card, the entire house crumbles. I wouldn't expect things to be that simple, but I would regret letting Inzil and Nessa slip away at this point. I'm still not convinced on what got Pitch under suspicion, but I admit to forgetting about him after Day 1, so I'll have another look.

Originally Posted by Macalaure

But you don't just fear to be dreamed of, you usually suspect one particular person to have dreamed of you (by their behaviour towards you) and kill that one. A lone wolf might get extremely nervous and behave like that, but with three comrades to keep him in check? This would only make sense if the wolves decided to throw Skip under the bus, subtly, but with the second kill tied to the fourth wolf, that's nonsense.

Second kill tied to the fourth wolf? Who are the other three?

[Nessa Telrunya]

Originally Posted by skip spence

Another thing: I find it curious that Nessa did not retract her Rikae-vote and voted for say Lottie or Inzil to save herself. Why didn't you, Nessa?

Because my desire to see Rikae lynched outweighed my desire to live. You see, I figured that once everyone saw that I was innocent, they would be inclined to take a second look at the person who I'd consistently voted.

Although, my suspicion for Rikae is beginning to wane in light of her overall helpfullness, and that nothing else she's said has resulted in stirring the pot-so to speak. It also helps that Legate's giving me the chills.

I also continue to believe that Inzil is innocent. After playing with Inzilwolf in the last game, I'm getting a different tone from him, not to mention the style of the wolves feels quite different in this game. And his some of his actions have been way too radical to come from a wolf who had double-kills to risk, should anyone take his words the wrong way.

Originally Posted by skip spence

Nessa makes an early vote for Rikae (for the second time). I never quite understood why Nessa's after Rikae? Care to explain?

This should suffice:

Originally Posted by Nessa Telrunya

Okay, to explain my suspicion of Rikae, I was very weirded out by how convenient it would be for a wolf for so much conversation to come of her post about Pitch. And most of it was about him, as well, taking the blame far away from her innocent-seeming phrasing.

[Pitchwife]

A look at one of our quieter people:

Eomer

D1
#62 Joking banter. Observes that no one wants to stick out. Will not vote for Zil (for humour's sake) and Cailín (for obvious reasons); Ozzy could be "a potential nutter" (whatever that means).

#87 questions wilwa about the 'Pitch wagon'.

#117 complains of "over-analysis" (not sure to what this refers). Getting wolf vibes from Nessa, skip and Lottie. Jokes that he "always wants to kill" Kit, Greenie, Lommy and Kath.

#136 "Day One reasoning is, and ought to be, the slave of the passions."

#148 Would rather let Zil live. Votes Nessa because she "looks a bit funny".

#157 Replies to Lommy, who said that the Nessa-wagon felt wrong: "I didn't bother covering my tracks. You think it'll make you look better?"
Weird remark, if it wasn't meant as banter. From this and his last post it looks like he voted Nessa, at least in part, in order to save Zil, putting her in the lead by one vote.


D2
#175 Thinks Ozzy was killed because of a "definite seer hint"; Kath's dead not so interesting, but he promises to look at Kath. Defends the sallywagon, it was understandable without hindsight. Confused about the argument between wilwa and Agan over sally's cobbler comments. I thought more or less the same at the time.

#180 Kath didn't look like a Seer, but perhaps the wolves feared her wolf hunting powers. Ozzy's verses and his vote for Nessa could have looked giftedish to the wolves. Repeats that Nessa had already felt wolvish to him on Day 1. Again, my thoughts exactly.

#218 Thinks Lommy's observation about Zil's quick first post was a "good spot". Doesn't want to lynch Kit. He was a bit either-or about the matter of Zil's first post here.

#269 "All the loudmouths" (meaning Zil, me, Rikae, Agan, Legate and Mac) feel innocent. Nessa still feels wolvish, corroborated by the Ozzy kill. skip feels less wolvish. Unsure about Lommy, LR's daughter and BG. "Valier does look pretty creepy." Votes Nessa. I'm not sure where Valier's 'creepiness' came from - I noticed that several people (Legate for one, if I'm not mistaken) expressed uneasiness about her yesterDay, which I couldn't and can't see a real reason for. Anybody care to explain?

Conclusion so far: on Day 1, mostly commenting, some quaint humour; on Day 2, much more focussed. He went after Nessa consistently, for reasons I can find no fault with. As a personal observation, the Eowolf I was packmates with some games ago was both crazier and less relaxed, if that makes sense - this looks more like the innocent Eomer from our last game together.
Noteworthy is his early connection to Zil on Day 1. If Zil is guilty and Nessa innocent, he could be Zil's packmate. If Zil is innocent and Nessa guilty, he'd be a very unlikely wolf in my opinion.

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

As an aside, I totally know why we chose Pericles for Rikae.

The big head?

[Rikae]

I just noticed something.
Pitch, why were you hinting at/about Boro late in Day one?

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Rikae

I just noticed something.
Pitch, why were you hinting at/about Boro late in Day one?

I'm not aware of doing any such thing. Where was that?

[Macalaure]

Originally Posted by Legate

I would expect seasoned players - those who have been Wolves many times - to go mainly after the Seer. Which does not seem to be the case at least of the first Day, in my opinion. Ergo, for this reason, it would make more sense to suspect the players like LRH, BG, Nessa, perhaps Mänwe, and others, but not e.g. Mac, Rikae, Pitch, Zil, Agan, Boro... those are the people whom I would expect to make more "logical" kills.

What if you don't have any leads regarding the seer? Then the logical choice is to go after one that gives you an advantage during the Day.

Anyway, if we think the wolves went after the seer, then toDay's lynch is a total no-brainer: Skip, not any of the ones you list.

Originally Posted by Rikae

Mac, I don't think it's so unlikely for a wolf to think either of two people might be a seer who dreamt him. Thinking that, the pack might eliminate both at once and plan to pass it off as a bluff, and, if that doesn't work, throw the "almost certainly dreamed" wolf under the bus. I would, anyway.

With the extra kill as long as they're all together, I find it extremely unlikely that any bus-throwing is taking place at the moment.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

I'm here now! Let me see.

Valier did not strike me as a seer. I suppose the wolves feared her reputation as a formidable wolf-spotter, and decided to end things.

I need to go through Lommy's posts but, as far as my memory serves me, this strikes me as another odd kill.

Could be exactly what they want, and I'm loathe to fall into a trap, but I think they would have killed me by now if Nessa was a wolf. Could be time for a re-think on my part. Need to start looking critically at these helpful, co-operative loudmouths.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by elronds_daughter

I wish I had something substantial to contribute, but I'm afraid this is all still sort of a jumbled mess in my head, and other people are making more sense out of it than I can.

Ah but you have. You don't have to come up with anything original, just your opinions on everybody suffice for now. That means we have an easier time figuring out your fellows if you turn out to be a wolf.

I'm not sure what to make of all this talk about the quiet ones, me being one of that number.

It's mostly just rubbish as Greenie pointed out (although with kinder words). I like to lynch a quiet player if I don't have a better suspect because it's often easier for them to slide by unnoticed while the louder ones tear each other apart. But speculating on whether a certain kill points at a quiet or a loud player... that's of no importance whatsoever.

I think I need a cup of tea to clear my head.

Cobbler hint!

Originally Posted by wilwarin538

perhaps the wolves together are only deciding on 1 person, and then whoever the Cobbler suggests is who their 2nd person is

If the wolves decide to go with the cobbler's suggestion, it means they've weighed the situation and the consequences of the kill and know exactly what they are doing. They wouldn't follow the cobbler blindly just to distance themselves from the kill. I guess your suggestion is reasonable enough, but the first thing it brought to my mind was either a wolwarin or a wibbler (sorry ) telling the other(s), "See, you and I know we've been doing this!"

Originally Posted by Rikae

The big head?

Aww no! It's just that your influence in this village covers... just about everything.

Okay continuing my skip analysis now.

[Cailín]

Well, I've been pondering some more and all I have come up with is a list of reasons why I stopped playing werewolves in the first place. Won't share that one with you though.

Those Who Appear Innocent

Eomer of the Rohirrim - I am honestly just mentioning him first because he's top of the list and all. I would love to suspect him, but I am fairly sure he is either innocent or will in the next few days declare his wolvery in some obvious way.

Macalaure - I find him sensible.

A Little Green - Her contributions today have been helpful and I found myself agreeing with many of her points.

Shasta - He has been fairly quiet though. I wonder why?

Aganzir - Could fool me.

Those Who Are Silent

elronds_daughter - Yea, she's quiet. Yea, she made some shady calls. I do not yet see evil.

Blind Guardian - a relentless and somewhat thoughtless pursuit of Nessa here. I find this suspicious.

Nessa - We talk about her a lot, but there's no answer. Could she really be a wolf?

Manwe - has been completely flying under the radar so far. One to watch.

The Unpopular Ones

Pitchwife - seems to have gathered a lot of suspicion, backed off, changed ways... I find his analyses convincing and lucid enough, but his self preservation instincts may seem subtle wolf rather than shocked innocent.

Inziladun - has without a doubt been a distraction: strange.

Skip Spence - looks worst after last night though I cannot find the double Seer attempt story convincing - Lommy's suspicion of him was so unfixed.

The Others

Rikae - She could be either. Or. And dangerous.

Boromir88 - Strangely silent. Whether he is trying a new technique and hide in the crowd - banking on his reputation to see him through for a while - or just uninterested... I am not sure.

Legate of Amon Lanc - I do not like how he is basing all his reasoning on meta-game hunches. His posts also seem jumbled, unstructured and filled with awkward sentences: either he is being overly deliberate (wolvish behaviour) or just confused.

Wilwarin - I am not convinced of her guilt but I do not like any of her posts (to which I will add a sorry Wilwa, because you have always been quite friendly really).

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

I'm not aware of doing any such thing. Where was that?

When you repeatedly and prominently used a word associated with him in one particular post.

Originally Posted by Mac

With the extra kill as long as they're all together, I find it extremely unlikely that any bus-throwing is taking place at the moment.

If they consider one of their number doomed anyway, why shouldn't they use him to make themselves look good?

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Rikae

When you repeatedly and prominently used a word associated with him in one particular post

And that was what? Sorry, I've got no clue what you're talking about.

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

And that was what? Sorry, I've got no clue what you're talking about.

Never mind. I must be mistaken.

[Aganzir]

DAY 1
Skip agrees with Boro that the wolves probably want to stay quiet early on. I don't think that's actually what Boro said: he seemed to be more of the opinion that the wolves don't want to bus each other early on. Skip however uses this as an excuse to consider voting for a quiet player - but expresses doubt because if the consensus is to vote off a non-contributor, the wolves can escape by being louder. Why is that a bad thing? A loud wolf is easier to catch than a quiet one and also leaves more trails.

He adds we should spread the votes unless there's a reason not to, and brings up the unfortunate Shastawagon (Shasta the seer was lynched in his absence by an exceptionally unanimous bandwagon).

He also agrees with Pitch, saying the cobbler's ability to send messages to the wolves will probably make her increasingly dangerous as the game progresses because they can identify each other more easily with the method of elimination. This comment makes me somewhat uneasy because he doesn't actually say anything new... It's more like talking about the cobbler just for the sake of it, not because he had anything new to say.

He then discusses the seer, saying she "should not be sacrificed lightly" and basically suggests the seer should wait with the reveal as long as possible ("I'd wait with the open reveal unless I faced the gallows"). He has a point, the only thing is it's reasonable for both a wolf and an innocent to suggest it.

Originally Posted by skip #34

The Seer must however be very careful to not leave any false trails should he/she happen to get killed. If we lose the Seer and the trail points to an innocent, we're in big trouble.

This makes me raise my eyebrows. No, we're not in big trouble if the seer suspects someone she hasn't dreamed of - unless it happens very late in the game, but seers don't usually survive that long. It's essential for the seer's survival that she not leave too obvious clues, and it isn't in the village's interests to say she should. The one or two known innocents aren't worth much if the seer dies early on. Sally accused skip of trying to hush the seer instead of using her, and skip countered by saying sally was twisting his words (unintentionally or not).
In his defense, though, he has a bad past experience about lynching the seer.

He proceeds to give the second vote for sally: "Just got this icky feeling about her misrepresenting my words." Several people had expressed willingness to vote for her before, though. At that point Nessa was leading with 4 while Zil had 3 and Lottie & Pitch 2. Skip's guilt would point away from Nessa & Zil because if he had wanted to save one of them, it would've made more sense to vote for Lottie, or Pitch if he's innocent.

Sally was the only person he expressed suspicion towards on day 1. He named a couple of others but mostly just agreed with them instead of having an actual opinion on them. This, I think, isn't particularly wolfish (in my experience, wolves prefer to hoard a list of suspicious people they can attack later on if need me). It's rather his views on certain things (the seer, for instance) that worry me.

DAY 2
He explains he didn't see sally's cobbler idea when voting for her so my argument about wolves not wanting to vote for her because of it doesn't apply to him. He speculates on whether one of the most voted (Pitch, Lottie, Nessa, Inzil) might be a wolf and if yes, how would their fellows react. Skip thinks Nessa looks the worst but it's also possible she's being framed. Lottie's "over-the-top defence" of Ozban was suspicious. He criticises ed for saying Inzil doesn't remind her of his wolfish self but adds Inzil doesn't worry him much.

He thinks Pitch, Rikae and Mac make sense & seem helpful and therefore considers them innocent whereas Legate, Nessa and a quiet wolf hiding in the crowd are starting to worry him.

After Kit's reveal, skip says he doesn't like the idea of just lynching her. His reasoning is the following:

Even though I think this statistically favours the village over the wolves (the latter lose their influence over the voting) it seems like a Day wasted and today's game ruined.

I agreed with him on not lynching Kit, but I find it more likely her lynch would've favoured the wolves - after all the odds of her hitting an innocent were higher, and the wolves don't really mind who dies as long as it isn't one of them. Therefore this argument sounds weird, even if innocentish. If skip turns out to be a wolf we should check Kitanna's suspects because in that case there probably is another wolf among them.

Skip then makes his fake hunter reveal. It was obviously a joke referring to his last game, but reactions to it are interesting as well. Rikae had posted shortly before it but gave no inclination of being around until later, therefore the people to comment on it were Inzil, Legate, me and Shasta. Shasta and I immediately pinned it as the joke it was, but Legate and Inzil seemed to think he was serious. I am 99% certain skip and Legate aren't fellows. As I said, it would have taken outstanding acting from Legate to react the way he did. He believed skip and started to discuss things from that perspective, and I can see no holes in his post that would indicate any extra knowledge.
Inzil's reaction is fishier than Legate's but not necessarily wolfish either:

Originally Posted by Inzil #232

Really, skip? So what does that mean: Kit's trying to get us to waste a lynch on her, instead of getting modfired? I'm not sure that I buy it. How about we lynch you, and you then hunt Kit? That would take care of the question.

I can understand his skepticism because skip's claim would have seemed outrageous if he had been serious, but it can also be seen as quickly distancing oneself from a fellow who has blundered. It doesn't make me suspect Inzil more (or less), but it makes me doubt they're a wolf & cobbler pair because if that was the case, Inzil probably wouldn't have questioned him the way he did.

As I said before, I don't think we can deduce anything from skip's hunter joke. I'm disinclined to think he wouldn't do it as a wolf because of the attention he might get because as everyone who played in his last game know, he's a bold player.

Later skip discussed the sallywagon shortly, saying he was a bit surprised by all the late votes for her but can't really accuse us who lynched her because he found her suspicious too, and that the reasons for lynching her weren't as bad as some people implied. Sally was voted by wilwa, skip, Lottie, Lommy & me - two of them dead innocents, two of them unknowns (to me). I find his comment innocentish. Wilwa voted for sally because of her cobbler idea, something I doubt a wolf would've done. If skip is a wolf, he would have been semi-defending at least three innocents, possibly four. It just doesn't pay off for a wolf. So if skip or wilwa is guilty, the other might be worth a look as well.

In the same post, he says Nessa seems sloppy but he'll give her the benefit of doubt for that day; Lottie worries him but he won't vote for her; Inzil's identity might shed on light on the day 1 voting; Legate seems genuine; and Boro seems off. He adds he feels pretty good about most of the loudmouths and might vote for a submarine because there probably is a wolf or two among them.
He votes for ed, saying it's a shot in the dark but he rather tries a submarine than a heavy contributor. If one of them is a wolf the other looks better because a couple of people had started suspecting ed and there was a chance she might receive more votes. When he voted, Rikae, Nessa & Kit already had a vote (he xed with Lottie's vote for Kit though).

**

Skip looks more innocent than I originally thought but I'm not sure I'd be ready to consider him innocent yet. I think his behaviour towards other players doesn't look very wolfish - he just doesn't seem particularly careful. On the other hand, some of the things he said don't sound innocent to me, but to be honest I suppose my growing WW enmity () towards him might be to blame for that.

The kills point towards him, but that was actually more likely than not given that about half the village expressed concern about him according to my notes.

I'm torn because my gut tells me to suspect skip but my reason not to.