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#1 | ||||
Gruesome Spectre
Join Date: Dec 2000
Location: Heaven's doorstep
Posts: 8,039
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I was at work. Believe it or not, though I do my best to prioritize and not let things interfere with WW, there are times when I have to get some other things done. ![]() Quote:
Speaking of Kit, nothing from her toDay. Gone for good, then? ![]() I'm telling you that evil as I may appear, killing me will not help this village.
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Music alone proves the existence of God. Last edited by Inziladun; 01-08-2011 at 09:06 AM. Reason: x/d with all since #369 |
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#2 |
Ghost Prince of Cardolan
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Lurking in the shadows.
Posts: 711
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The Words of the Dead
Valier
#25 Confused about the deadline. Says Boromir88 perhaps looks too reasonable and asks Aganzir for an explanation of her feminist statement on the gender identity of the Seer (sort of a bewildering thing to do). #81 Nothing #90 Thinks Pitch and Nessa look fairly innocent. Wilwa looks ok. Expresses some suspicion of Rikae and Shasta, and thinks Lommy and Greenie are quiet in an OOC kind of way. #91 Agrees with Wilwa. #102 Suspects Inzil because of his vote for Nessa, and thinks she will vote Inzil or Rikae. (she is pretty consistently defending Nessa here) #107 Some Seer-related comments. Does not approve of people trying to tell the Seer what to do. #109 Agrees with Wilwa again #139 & 140 Questions Lottie. Still suspicious of Inzil because of the vote for Nessa. Votes Inzil. #146 Accepts Lottie's answer #167 Thinks Inzil might be being framed by the death of Kath and Oz, or trying to be clever #199 Agrees with Mac and thinks Kath and Oz were easy, traceless kills. Wonders why the wolves did not go for the Seer (honestly, if our wolf pack is incompetent - which is doubtful in this village - they will definitely after all the remarks we made about it). Defends herself and proclaims her Innocence. #247 suspects Legate and Skip #271 A list. Most of the people are don't knows - this is a very vague list for someone whom the wolves might have believed to be the Seer. The only possible Seer statement is on Rikae (whom she suspected yesterDay and thinks innocent now) and Skip whom she suddenly suspects quite strongly. Then again, she does not immediately vote for skip but mentions a whole list of possibles. #281 Still defends Nessa and votes Skip. So if the wolves thought Valier was the Seer, then Nessa and Rikae are looking fairly good, and Skip looks bad. I am not convinced - Valier was obviously not the Seer and I cannot quite see how the wolves would have confused her for one - but I will keep this in mind as I go over the posts of those of us actually still alive. |
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#3 |
Mellifluous Maia
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: A glade open to the stars, deep in Nan Elmoth
Posts: 3,489
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Mac, I don't think it's so unlikely for a wolf to think either of two people might be a seer who dreamt him. Thinking that, the pack might eliminate both at once and plan to pass it off as a bluff, and, if that doesn't work, throw the "almost certainly dreamed" wolf under the bus. I would, anyway.
I keep disagreeing with Mac, but I find him innocentish. In his favor, he's very conscientious about new players, so I doubt he would have been OK with killing Oz so early. I have bad feelings, still, about Pitch and Inzil, and also, although less formed, about Legate and Skip. I fear, though I can't imagne there isn't a wolf among them, that I don't judge between them well since I tend to place them all in the same "group" mentally - skillful, logical male players who joined the 'downs after I did and make rather controlled posts (although Skip's hunter joke might edge him out of that group). I don't see much use in trying to determine the makeup of the pack with regard to loud and quiet... the village is roughly half and half, but wolves choose based on their individual paranoias, hunches, prejudices, etc. - not how loud or quiet they are - and a pack tends to zero in on someone multiple wolves want to kill, even if it's for different reasons. At least, in my experience, that's how it is - a voting sort of process. Trying to reconstruct it from the village side of things tends to be a bit of a distraction, actually, although there are some things - like who would not likely have killed Oz - that we can deduce. |
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#4 | ||
A Voice That Gainsayeth
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: In that far land beyond the Sea
Posts: 7,431
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But anyway, maybe I am overcombinating stuff too and perhaps the WWs are simply going for those who suspect them, in which case it would be really simple and the Wolves are like Nessa, Zil and some others and we are just wasting days worrying about nothing when we should just lynch them. Quote:
![]() Her death (of her own resignation) is in the narration, I figure she told Nog she was pulling off for good. I will be gone soon probably for a few hours, but will appear before DL for sure, and then vote.
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"Should the story say 'he ate bread,' the dramatic producer can only show 'a piece of bread' according to his taste or fancy, but the hearer of the story will think of bread in general and picture it in some form of his own." -On Fairy-Stories |
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#5 |
Ghost Prince of Cardolan
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Lurking in the shadows.
Posts: 711
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Went over Lommy's posts too, of course. She changed her mind about Inzil and Nessa over Night - both going from innocent to guilty in her eyes. Her first list was unSeerish with no certain statements, though she has consistently singled out Boromir88 as guiltless (and some others, but Boromir with the most constant conviction). Her second list was equally unSeerish and she had a reasonable argument for her suspicion of Zil (believing him to know who was going to be killed before it was announced because of his fast response to the Night's events). She was flip-flopping on Nessa.
Lommy was almost certainly not a we-are-looking-for-the-Seer kill but a let's-get-her-now-before-she-starts-making-sense kill or something involving Inzil (bluff, double bluff, you all know the drill). |
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#6 | ||||||
Woman of Secret Shadow
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: in hollow halls beneath the fells
Posts: 4,511
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As an aside, I totally know why we chose Pericles for Rikae. ![]() I was planning to analyse one of my Either people, but I'm feeling okay about Legate, Pitch has already been analysed twice, I'm tired of thinking about Nessa & Inzil, I want Boro to post more, and I have absolutely nothing on BG & Mänwe. This annoys me, so I suppose I'll just go through skip's posts. I'm starting now but it might take me long because I'm off to the grocery as soon as my seer friend (who randomly asked yesterday if we've already lynched Mac) gets out of the shower.
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He bit me, and I was not gentle. Last edited by Aganzir; 01-08-2011 at 10:27 AM. Reason: xed with BG & Cailín |
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#7 |
Ghost Prince of Cardolan
Join Date: May 2004
Location: Between the fortune cookie and the post-its.
Posts: 644
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I wish I had something substantial to contribute, but I'm afraid this is all still sort of a jumbled mess in my head, and other people are making more sense out of it than I can. Thus, I haven't made much of an account of myself, and it appears I've let myself get swept up in a most unfortunate bandwagon. Rats. Now the only person I still have any sort of a clear idea on is Mac, and that's mostly because he's seeming the most objective. I still don't think Inzil is a wolf, but it wouldn't surprise me if he's the cobbler. My formerly neutral feelings on Rikae are tending towards "seems innocent to me".
I'm not sure what to make of all this talk about the quiet ones, me being one of that number. I'm still trying to get my feet (which at this point in the game had better happen fast or I may doom the village). Twenty-four people was a lot to get my brain around. Now we're down to seventeen, but that's still a lot for my non-strategical mind. I think I need a cup of tea to clear my head.
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I'd like to be the king of all Londinium and wear a shiny hat. |
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#8 |
shadow of a doubt
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Back on the streets
Posts: 1,125
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Here and reading. That said today is going to be a bad day for participation for me. Have a bit of time now, that's all.
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"You can always come back, but you can't come back all the way" ~ Bob Dylan |
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#9 |
Fluttering Enchantment
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Ok, I'm here, and I've tried to process everything.
I notice there's a lot of talk about the kills and how they don't seem to make a lot of sense, but I think everyone is forgetting something: the Cobbler sends in a suggestion. Think about it; perhaps the wolves together are only deciding on 1 person, and then whoever the Cobbler suggests is who their 2nd person is (as long as it's not them, obviously). If they do that they may not really have their own reasons to kill the 2nd person, they're just trusting that perhaps the Cobbler spotted something (a Gifted hint perhaps) that they missed. This would also kind of seperate themselves from one of the kills, making it harder to track back to them. So perhaps we should be considering the kills from a Cobbler's perspective? I'm not sure if that all makes complete sense, and it depends on the wolf pack, they could just be ignoring the Cobbler, but we shouldn't forget that there's a 5th person who has a say at Night. I also noticed lots of us (including myself) have been saying that some things are "too obvious" and I think we have to get out of that mindset. Sometimes things really are just as they seem, and wolves can easily do things that seem too obvious, hoping the village thinks that and ignores it. I'm afraid I have to go to work in an hour, I thought toDay would be much better for me for participation, but it's not turning out that way. I'm going to skim back through and try to find a suspect. x'ed since Agan
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Comme une étoile amarante Comme un papillon de nuit C'est la lumičre qui m'attire La flamme qui m'éblouit Fenris Muffin
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#10 |
Guardian of the Blind
Join Date: Apr 2010
Location: Where The Skies End
Posts: 899
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I have to go so i am going to vote
++Nessa I have had a feeling about her since the beginning and it's not getting better. (By the way, this game ends in the middle of my day, thus my early votes.) |
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#11 |
Wight of the Old Forest
Join Date: Dec 2008
Location: Unattended on the railway station, in the litter at the dancehall
Posts: 3,329
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A look at one of our quieter people:
Eomer D1 #62 Joking banter. Observes that no one wants to stick out. Will not vote for Zil (for humour's sake) and Cailín (for obvious reasons); Ozzy could be "a potential nutter" (whatever that means). #87 questions wilwa about the 'Pitch wagon'. #117 complains of "over-analysis" (not sure to what this refers). Getting wolf vibes from Nessa, skip and Lottie. Jokes that he "always wants to kill" Kit, Greenie, Lommy and Kath. #136 "Day One reasoning is, and ought to be, the slave of the passions." #148 Would rather let Zil live. Votes Nessa because she "looks a bit funny". #157 Replies to Lommy, who said that the Nessa-wagon felt wrong: "I didn't bother covering my tracks. You think it'll make you look better?" Weird remark, if it wasn't meant as banter. From this and his last post it looks like he voted Nessa, at least in part, in order to save Zil, putting her in the lead by one vote. D2 #175 Thinks Ozzy was killed because of a "definite seer hint"; Kath's dead not so interesting, but he promises to look at Kath. Defends the sallywagon, it was understandable without hindsight. Confused about the argument between wilwa and Agan over sally's cobbler comments. I thought more or less the same at the time. #180 Kath didn't look like a Seer, but perhaps the wolves feared her wolf hunting powers. Ozzy's verses and his vote for Nessa could have looked giftedish to the wolves. Repeats that Nessa had already felt wolvish to him on Day 1. Again, my thoughts exactly. #218 Thinks Lommy's observation about Zil's quick first post was a "good spot". Doesn't want to lynch Kit. He was a bit either-or about the matter of Zil's first post here. #269 "All the loudmouths" (meaning Zil, me, Rikae, Agan, Legate and Mac) feel innocent. Nessa still feels wolvish, corroborated by the Ozzy kill. skip feels less wolvish. Unsure about Lommy, LR's daughter and BG. "Valier does look pretty creepy." Votes Nessa. I'm not sure where Valier's 'creepiness' came from - I noticed that several people (Legate for one, if I'm not mistaken) expressed uneasiness about her yesterDay, which I couldn't and can't see a real reason for. Anybody care to explain? Conclusion so far: on Day 1, mostly commenting, some quaint humour; on Day 2, much more focussed. He went after Nessa consistently, for reasons I can find no fault with. As a personal observation, the Eowolf I was packmates with some games ago was both crazier and less relaxed, if that makes sense - this looks more like the innocent Eomer from our last game together. Noteworthy is his early connection to Zil on Day 1. If Zil is guilty and Nessa innocent, he could be Zil's packmate. If Zil is innocent and Nessa guilty, he'd be a very unlikely wolf in my opinion.
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Und aus dem Erebos kamen viele seelen herauf der abgeschiedenen toten.- Homer, Odyssey, Canto XI |
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#12 |
Mellifluous Maia
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: A glade open to the stars, deep in Nan Elmoth
Posts: 3,489
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#13 |
Mellifluous Maia
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: A glade open to the stars, deep in Nan Elmoth
Posts: 3,489
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I just noticed something.
Pitch, why were you hinting at/about Boro late in Day one? |
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#14 | |||
Woman of Secret Shadow
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: in hollow halls beneath the fells
Posts: 4,511
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skippity skip
DAY 1
Skip agrees with Boro that the wolves probably want to stay quiet early on. I don't think that's actually what Boro said: he seemed to be more of the opinion that the wolves don't want to bus each other early on. Skip however uses this as an excuse to consider voting for a quiet player - but expresses doubt because if the consensus is to vote off a non-contributor, the wolves can escape by being louder. Why is that a bad thing? A loud wolf is easier to catch than a quiet one and also leaves more trails. He adds we should spread the votes unless there's a reason not to, and brings up the unfortunate Shastawagon (Shasta the seer was lynched in his absence by an exceptionally unanimous bandwagon). He also agrees with Pitch, saying the cobbler's ability to send messages to the wolves will probably make her increasingly dangerous as the game progresses because they can identify each other more easily with the method of elimination. This comment makes me somewhat uneasy because he doesn't actually say anything new... It's more like talking about the cobbler just for the sake of it, not because he had anything new to say. He then discusses the seer, saying she "should not be sacrificed lightly" and basically suggests the seer should wait with the reveal as long as possible ("I'd wait with the open reveal unless I faced the gallows"). He has a point, the only thing is it's reasonable for both a wolf and an innocent to suggest it. Quote:
In his defense, though, he has a bad past experience about lynching the seer. He proceeds to give the second vote for sally: "Just got this icky feeling about her misrepresenting my words." Several people had expressed willingness to vote for her before, though. At that point Nessa was leading with 4 while Zil had 3 and Lottie & Pitch 2. Skip's guilt would point away from Nessa & Zil because if he had wanted to save one of them, it would've made more sense to vote for Lottie, or Pitch if he's innocent. Sally was the only person he expressed suspicion towards on day 1. He named a couple of others but mostly just agreed with them instead of having an actual opinion on them. This, I think, isn't particularly wolfish (in my experience, wolves prefer to hoard a list of suspicious people they can attack later on if need me). It's rather his views on certain things (the seer, for instance) that worry me. DAY 2 He explains he didn't see sally's cobbler idea when voting for her so my argument about wolves not wanting to vote for her because of it doesn't apply to him. He speculates on whether one of the most voted (Pitch, Lottie, Nessa, Inzil) might be a wolf and if yes, how would their fellows react. Skip thinks Nessa looks the worst but it's also possible she's being framed. Lottie's "over-the-top defence" of Ozban was suspicious. He criticises ed for saying Inzil doesn't remind her of his wolfish self but adds Inzil doesn't worry him much. He thinks Pitch, Rikae and Mac make sense & seem helpful and therefore considers them innocent whereas Legate, Nessa and a quiet wolf hiding in the crowd are starting to worry him. After Kit's reveal, skip says he doesn't like the idea of just lynching her. His reasoning is the following: Quote:
Skip then makes his fake hunter reveal. It was obviously a joke referring to his last game, but reactions to it are interesting as well. Rikae had posted shortly before it but gave no inclination of being around until later, therefore the people to comment on it were Inzil, Legate, me and Shasta. Shasta and I immediately pinned it as the joke it was, but Legate and Inzil seemed to think he was serious. I am 99% certain skip and Legate aren't fellows. As I said, it would have taken outstanding acting from Legate to react the way he did. He believed skip and started to discuss things from that perspective, and I can see no holes in his post that would indicate any extra knowledge. Inzil's reaction is fishier than Legate's but not necessarily wolfish either: Quote:
As I said before, I don't think we can deduce anything from skip's hunter joke. I'm disinclined to think he wouldn't do it as a wolf because of the attention he might get because as everyone who played in his last game know, he's a bold player. Later skip discussed the sallywagon shortly, saying he was a bit surprised by all the late votes for her but can't really accuse us who lynched her because he found her suspicious too, and that the reasons for lynching her weren't as bad as some people implied. Sally was voted by wilwa, skip, Lottie, Lommy & me - two of them dead innocents, two of them unknowns (to me). I find his comment innocentish. Wilwa voted for sally because of her cobbler idea, something I doubt a wolf would've done. If skip is a wolf, he would have been semi-defending at least three innocents, possibly four. It just doesn't pay off for a wolf. So if skip or wilwa is guilty, the other might be worth a look as well. In the same post, he says Nessa seems sloppy but he'll give her the benefit of doubt for that day; Lottie worries him but he won't vote for her; Inzil's identity might shed on light on the day 1 voting; Legate seems genuine; and Boro seems off. He adds he feels pretty good about most of the loudmouths and might vote for a submarine because there probably is a wolf or two among them. He votes for ed, saying it's a shot in the dark but he rather tries a submarine than a heavy contributor. If one of them is a wolf the other looks better because a couple of people had started suspecting ed and there was a chance she might receive more votes. When he voted, Rikae, Nessa & Kit already had a vote (he xed with Lottie's vote for Kit though). ** Skip looks more innocent than I originally thought but I'm not sure I'd be ready to consider him innocent yet. I think his behaviour towards other players doesn't look very wolfish - he just doesn't seem particularly careful. On the other hand, some of the things he said don't sound innocent to me, but to be honest I suppose my growing WW enmity ( ![]() The kills point towards him, but that was actually more likely than not given that about half the village expressed concern about him according to my notes. I'm torn because my gut tells me to suspect skip but my reason not to.
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He bit me, and I was not gentle. Last edited by Aganzir; 01-08-2011 at 01:41 PM. Reason: xed since my last |
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#15 | |||||
Gruesome Spectre
Join Date: Dec 2000
Location: Heaven's doorstep
Posts: 8,039
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I find it curious that two of the most quiet players, who would seemingly be good "no-trail" kills, are still with us. I thought I'd look at ed.
Day 1 Quote:
Nothing else until a late vote: Quote:
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Conclusions? The votes have been easy ones, and both Days they've come in very near DL. What she's said has been consistent, though following in the tracks of others. My gut wants to say she's innocent, but I could see a wolf there, too.
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Music alone proves the existence of God. Last edited by Inziladun; 01-08-2011 at 10:01 AM. Reason: x/d with Legate and Cailín |
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#16 |
Guardian of the Blind
Join Date: Apr 2010
Location: Where The Skies End
Posts: 899
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I am here. Sorry about not being around very much, I'm kinda incline just to quit. Mom wouldn't let me on the computer. -_-
Anyways, I still suspect Nessa, even more now. To me she looks wolf-ish. Now if you will excuse me, I'm going to look as Inzil... |
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#17 |
Guardian of the Blind
Join Date: Apr 2010
Location: Where The Skies End
Posts: 899
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Inzil
#24- jokes inrole, says he will return # 48 Agrees with Agan on getting a wolf soon. Suspects Pitch. Will not lynch me on Day! ![]() #50 Jokes with Lottie # 54 responds to Mac about wolves and the cobbler hinting early. #59- Jokes with Boro and Rikae #72- Comments on Kits 'easy vote' of Pitch Jokes on Ozban's Satan mistake. #98 Votes nessa, says she sounds off. DAY2 #166 'interesting' kills, wants to know why. Both had something to do with him... #169 - jokes with Legate, does not like Sally-wagon #193 Agrees that Ozban's death is strange. Did not think Sally as evil. Is not comfterble with Nessa or Mac. #194 Might suspect Val #196 Does not know why a baddie would false reveal as a hunter #198 Is joking...? #222- Doesn't know if Kit will be back after a day or never. Seems to think Kit wants to use her gift. (hunter) Is concerned about Val, nessa, Pitch and Mac #232 responds to Skips joke-reveal as the Hunter. Jokes #237 responds to Skip 's Hunter reveal #261 doesn't want to vote for Kit or a quiet one. #292 Doesn't like Val's vote. 302 Doesn't want to vote for Lottie 308 Would vote for ed Votes for Lottie Is sorry for voting for Lottie Doesn't think people are going to listen to him Comments on his vote More vote comments Sums up elronds_daughter's role. (took attention off himself it looks like) Edit: xed since me Edit2: That was my longest post ever! |
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#18 |
Ghost Prince of Cardolan
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Lurking in the shadows.
Posts: 711
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Thanks for that, Inzil.
I agree: elronds_daughter's posts and votes do not look good, but then skip (whom I now distrust because of Valier's death) voted for her yesterDay in what seemed to be an attempt at a convenient and excusable bandwagon, though he adequately described it as a random stab in the dark (not something that seems particularly useful right now). Of course, you yourself are a dodgy character as well. ![]() Last edited by Cailín; 01-08-2011 at 10:25 AM. Reason: x-ed with Blind Guardian |
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