WW: LXXXV - The Lost Philosophers of Maiar

[Blind Guardian]

I have to go so i am going to vote

++Nessa

I have had a feeling about her since the beginning and it's not getting better.

(By the way, this game ends in the middle of my day, thus my early votes.)

[wilwarin538]

So, I have to go I'm afraid. I need to vote, and I don't have time to look at everyone closely, so I'm going to give my opinion on the two people who seem to be the ones everyone is considering.

I still don't get the Nessa thing, do people even have legitimate reasons to suspect her, or has she just become a fallback? I've just had the chance to skim through yesterDay, so maybe I just missed something, but I don't really get it. I know she said a couple odd things Day 1, but I don't really see anything else that is so incriminating that everyone keeps going for her. I definitely need to take my own close look at her, I just don't have the time to do that right now.

Inzil makes more sense to me. His last minute vote was strange (and if he's guilty Nessa does looks pretty bad), and his tone at the beginning of the Day today is really weird. His whole "I'll understand it if you lynch me". To me it always seems like innocents get a bit more upset when they're in danger of being lynched, and don't just sit back and take it (when you're innocent you don't want to get lynched because it's no good for the village, so if you really want to win you fight to stay alive so that the lynch can hopefully be used in a more useful manner, atleast that's how I see it). While a wolf may try to be understanding, saying that they don't mind dying to get some sympathy and maybe skate by. That's why I never get why people see defensiveness as a sign of guilt, because it's not just the wolves that want to stay alive, and wolves are less likely to want to make a big scene out of their defense. Him being a Cobbler would also make sense. His whole tone just seems like he's trying to be too cooperative, and is afraid to cause trouble.

So since I'm very quickly running out of time, I'm gonna go for Inzil, even if it is mostly on a gut thing:

++ Inzil

[skip spence]

l've had a look at yesterDay with a focus on the voting which eventually led to the lynching of Lottie. Sorry if the formatting comes out a bit messy!

The Day starts at 11.03 PM with

Originally Posted by Inzil

Interesting kill choices, I think. Kath, who voted for me, and Ozban, who followed my vote for Nessa. Why them?

Legate and Lottie comments early that this makes them feel better about Inzil. Leg's suspicions are later aroused though:

Originally Posted by Legate

I am starting to suspect Inzil. A bit, but anyway. Which is horrible, thinking that in such a case it would be, what, the fifth time in a row he was a Wolf?

Nessa makes an early vote for Rikae (for the second time). I never quite understood why Nessa's after Rikae? Care to explain?

#246 BG votes Nessa. "a feeling" and "too much confidence" is the explanation. Don't really understand that confidence thing to be honest...

#248 Mac says Inzil is an "amateur-wolf" if he'd make that first post as a wolf. Or is this what he'd have us think? Mac adds...

#254 Lottie votes Kit because she very uncharacteristically has no suspects at all

#256 I vote Elrond's daughter for being a submarine. This was a spur-of-the-moment decision as I got a call from a friend who needed help and had to leave.

#269 Eomer votes Nessa (2) "Nessa is still bothering me: she just feels like a wolf. The Ozban kill seems to tie in with it, so I'd be most inclined to kill Nessa today."

#274 Shasta votes Lottie because he doesn't like that Kit-vote. Me and Cailin has already expressed the same sentiment.

#275 Pitch votes Nessa (3) He thinks there might have been a wolf in the running on Day 1 but don't think it was Inzil.

#281 Val says she doesn't like the bandwagon against Nessa and votes Me (mostly because of that joke it seens)

#284 Greenie votes Inzil, mostly because that very quick comment on the kills and their significance. Thinks this is a bad sign. Lommy earlier made the same
point.

#291 Rikae votes Lottie (2) "For her Kitanna vote and for being a submarine."

#293 Lommy votes Inzil (2), I assume mostly because that early comment.

#294 Rikae retracts her Lottie-vote and goes for Inzil (3) instead

#296 Cailin votes Lottie (2) (eager to wash her hands ie the Kit-vote)

#298 Mac votes Lottie (3) "the only sensible option" ??

#303 elrond's daughter defends Inzil and votes Lottie (4)

#305 Agan asks for support: anyone into voting skip or ed? Inzil says maye ed; Legate maybe skip

#310 Agan votes Nessa (4) because the is the most quiet among the suspects.

#311 Legate votes Nessa (5) Think I missed why.. Why?

#314 On the deadline Inzil votes Lottie (5) who is lynched, because he was swayed be Nessa who popped up and defended Lottie.

If Nessa and Inzil are fellows this would be a very bold move. Yet it makes sense I guess. Perhaps he figured that one of them were bound to get lynched for this sooner or later, and which later a better alternative in this case with the double kills. Need to think more about this.

All this is giving me a bad feeling actually. If we lynch Inzil and he is innocent, what do we do then?

Another thing: I find it curious that Nessa did not retract her Rikae-vote and voted for say Lottie or Inzil to save herself. Why didn't you, Nessa?

[skip spence]

Originally Posted by Agan

Okay continuing my skip analysis now

I have no doubt you'll find me guilty, sweetheart

[skip spence]

Quick spontaneous list.

Eomer of the Rohirrim - Has voted Nessa twice now with sound reasoning. Innocent-leaning.

elronds_daughter - submarine and therefore hard to read. Don't care for that.

Macalaure - One of the loudest people. Doesn't always make that much sense to me though, will try to look closer at him if I find the time

Shastanis Althreduin - Seems rational and objective when he shows up. Wary of Shasta though.

wilwarin538 - Doesn't seem all that convincing to me.

Nessa Telrunya - Might well be a wolf I think. Evidence against her not favourable.

Pitchwife - Could be anything. Leaning innocent.

Inziladun - If he is innocent I feel sorry for him. Quite a bit stacked up against
him though.

Rikae - Innocent-feeling, but there's also this doubt in the back of my mind.

Boromir88 - Where is Boro and what happened to his attention-seeking?

A Little Green - No read.

Blind Guardian - Submarine and no read.

Mänwe - Has posted what twice? And very cryptically. Never voted. Tempted to vote him just because but probably won't.

Legate of Amon Lanc - Seems pretty genuine...

Aganzir - Looks less evil than she usually does which makes me wonder...

Caílin - Under the radar. Would like to have a better look at her.

Scary that there are 5 baddies in there. Will return soon with a vote.

[Cailín]

Eomer of the Rohirrim - Has voted Nessa twice now with sound reasoning. Innocent-leaning.

Ha! I like him too, but sound reasoning is strange praise for a "funny feeling".

I am fairly puzzled by skip's list, to be honest. However, Nessa´s claim that she would rather sacrifice herself so that we might take her suspicions of Rikae seriously is simply baffling, especially as she then continues to withdraw that apparently worthy-to-turn-myself-into-a-martyr-for suspicion.

[skip spence]

++Nessa

I think the points against her are strong enough for testing out.

I will try to log in later (and might even change my vote if if seems best) but more likely, this is it for me for toDay.

[Nessa Telrunya]

Originally Posted by skip spence

++Nessa

I think the points against her are strong enough for testing out.

I will try to log in later (and might even change my vote if if seems best) but more likely, this is it for me for toDay.

Does anyone care to tell what points are these? I've seen speculation, but nothing stronger than "wolvish vibes" or "bad feelings".

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

If the latter was the case, we are living inside a horror. *dreads* I mean, if the WWs are already for two Nights doing nothing more than worrying about that they have been basically all caught this far and it is only a matter of time before they are lynched one by one, and yet still we in fact don't lynch either of them this far, it must be a rather pleasing picture for them.

That would be a nightmare, so have we reached the stage where Pitch, Nessa, and Inzil are just huge question marks we have to find them out or they will forever haunt us? Or do you think we should start widening the search, Legate?

If it has been as you say, then even with the few bad lynchings so far, the wolves are in a rather precarious, teetering on the edge situation, where once you remove one card, the entire house crumbles. I wouldn't expect things to be that simple, but I would regret letting Inzil and Nessa slip away at this point. I'm still not convinced on what got Pitch under suspicion, but I admit to forgetting about him after Day 1, so I'll have another look.

Originally Posted by Macalaure

But you don't just fear to be dreamed of, you usually suspect one particular person to have dreamed of you (by their behaviour towards you) and kill that one. A lone wolf might get extremely nervous and behave like that, but with three comrades to keep him in check? This would only make sense if the wolves decided to throw Skip under the bus, subtly, but with the second kill tied to the fourth wolf, that's nonsense.

Second kill tied to the fourth wolf? Who are the other three?

[Nessa Telrunya]

Originally Posted by skip spence

Another thing: I find it curious that Nessa did not retract her Rikae-vote and voted for say Lottie or Inzil to save herself. Why didn't you, Nessa?

Because my desire to see Rikae lynched outweighed my desire to live. You see, I figured that once everyone saw that I was innocent, they would be inclined to take a second look at the person who I'd consistently voted.

Although, my suspicion for Rikae is beginning to wane in light of her overall helpfullness, and that nothing else she's said has resulted in stirring the pot-so to speak. It also helps that Legate's giving me the chills.

I also continue to believe that Inzil is innocent. After playing with Inzilwolf in the last game, I'm getting a different tone from him, not to mention the style of the wolves feels quite different in this game. And his some of his actions have been way too radical to come from a wolf who had double-kills to risk, should anyone take his words the wrong way.

Originally Posted by skip spence

Nessa makes an early vote for Rikae (for the second time). I never quite understood why Nessa's after Rikae? Care to explain?

This should suffice:

Originally Posted by Nessa Telrunya

Okay, to explain my suspicion of Rikae, I was very weirded out by how convenient it would be for a wolf for so much conversation to come of her post about Pitch. And most of it was about him, as well, taking the blame far away from her innocent-seeming phrasing.