Tol-in-Gaurhoth Threefold and Six: The Night Guard

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Lynch tally

(Time reckoned from the start of the DAY, known innocents underlined, known baddies emphasised, person/s in the lead bolded.)

+12:09 Nilp - Zil (Zil - 1)
+19:09 Nerwen - Legate (Zil - 1, Legate - 1)
+21:14 Boro - Legate (Zil - 1, Legate - 2)
+21:35 Greenie - Legate (Zil - 1, Legate - 3)
+22:11 Lommy - Zil (Zil - 2, Legate - 3)
+22:27 Nienna - Legate (Zil - 2, Legate - 4)
+23:00 wilwa - Legate (Zil - 2, Legate - 5)
+23:10 Brinn - Legate (Zil - 2, Legate - 6)
+23:34 Pitchie - Legate (Zil - 2, Legate - 7)
+23:39 McCaber - Zil (Zil - 3, Legate - 7)

Oh, there were four of us?

+23:47 Nessa - Legate (Zil - 3, Legate - 8)
+23:53 Nogrod - Legate (Zil - 3, Legate - 9)
+23:55 Zil - Legate (Zil - 3, Legate - 10)
+23:58 Legate - Zil (Zil - 4, Legate - 10)
+23:59 Sally - Legate (Zil - 4, Legate - 11)

No vote: alonariel, Shastanis Althreduin

What can we conclude from that? Hm . . .

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

Sqwuak! I am a parrot!

You know it's a bad thing when you've just copy-pasted: ' - Legate (Zil - 2, Legate - 7)' after a majority of names, just changing the number at the end.

Intentions, intentions, intentions . . . well, at least some of you made reasonable arguments against Legate (e.g. Nogrod, who remains at the unknown edge of my 'good' book), but some . . . Angamandi, Nessa showed up, voted Legate, and disappeared!!!

The rest of the village falls in between. Except McCaber and I. Got your riot shields ready, buddy? We be seein' tomatoes.

EDIT: Added 'no vote'.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Curses, Sally! Me not first. Ah, well, my list is infinitely superior in pulchritude.

This is all your fault, you know? I was having a grand time chasing imaginary mice with an imaginary iron Christmas tree when you dragged me into this village.

[satansaloser2005]

Awwww. Nilp doesn't love his Sally anymore?

*sniffles*

I'll go drown my sorrows in an analysis. Who? I'll surprise you.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Well, I got one good little thing out of your reactionary antirevolutionary ( ) list.

Shasta didn't vote. I had to go back and check if he posted yesterDAY, and he did. Just once, though. So probably the imaginary 'real life' (how bourgeois) took him away.

*chases butterflies with Engels*

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Hakon

One thing we also need to think about is part of the safety the wolves gain from killing one a night. Because we know that at least once the wolves have chosen to kill one a night we expect it to always have been their choice. It could happen that we end up guarding a wolf and we just assume that they chose to have one kill that night. It could mean a wolf not getting lynched.

Not worth it. To quote myself at #224 (replying to Nilp):

If they did, they were giving up a kill solely in order to give them a possible advantage in a possible future situation. It can only pay off if we happen to guard a wolf while all four of them are still alive, and maybe not even then.

On that note:

Possible (not necessarily mutually exclusive) reasons for the lack of second kills, in no particular order:

1 Wilwa is a wolf (i.e. the wolves framed Legate to take the heat off her).

2. Nogrod is a wolf. (He was Guarded last Night.)

3. The wolves are trying to "insure" themselves against a possible situation in which Wolf 4 (or the last wolf alive) is Guarded and thus would be revealed by the missing kill. (Suggested by Nilp yesterDay and Hakon toDay.)

4. The wolves are terrified of known innocents and consider it worth giving up their most obvious advantage in order not to create any. (Suggested by Legate and toDay by Zil. Or rather, there are others who agree the wolves might have done this, but I believe only those two consider(ed) it a worthwhile tactic.)

5. The wolves assume that the village will lynch the Guarded person every time there's a missed kill. (See above.)

6. The wolves are playing dumb, to mislead us as to their identity. (Suggested by Wilwa.)

7. On each Night, there was no second kill that would not heavily implicate a pack member. (This is very unlikely, at least as the main reason, but I thought I might as well cover everything.)

3., 4., and 5. are interesting, not because they're terribly good tactics, but because the wolves may think they are.

[Inziladun]

A sensible summary, Nerwen.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

1 Wilwa is a wolf (i.e.the wolves framed Legate to take the heat off her).

I think the liklihood of that depends on how much 'heat' Wilwa was under.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

2. Nogrod is a wolf. (He was Guarded last Night.)

Certainly possible, but with no double kill last Night, and no Seer to vouch for him, we have no way of knowing that doesn't involve his death.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

3. The wolves are trying to "insure" themselves against a possible situation in which Wolf 4 (or the last wolf alive) is Guarded and thus would be revealed by the missing kill. (Suggested by Nilp yesterDay and Hakon toDay.).

That's plausible, but I think it unlikely to be the prime motive.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

4. The wolves are terrified of known innocents and consider it worth giving up their most obvious advantage in order not to create any. (Suggested by Legate and toDay by Zil. Or rather, there are others who agree the wolves might have done this, but I believe only those two consider(ed) it a worthwhile tactic

It does seem a strong lure that tactic would hold. Known innocents=less confusion for the village. That makes the most sense to me.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

5. The wolves assume that the village will lynch the Guarded person every time there's a missed kill. (See above.)

Surely they won't take that as a given, after Legate was proven innocent. But confusion is a powerful weapon.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

6. The wolves are playing dumb, to mislead us as to their identity. (Suggested by Wilwa.)

That would suugest they possess a good deal of experience and cunning, and wish to hide it.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

7. On each Night, there was no second kill that would not heavily implicate a pack member. (This is very unlikely, at least as the main reason, but I thought I might as well cover everything.)

With the sheer number of innocents remaining, I think that can be discounted for now.

[Brinniel]

Hmm...I think the best thing to do now is to look back at everyone yesterDay. We obviously can't make much judgment on the votes themselves, but picking up some comments and behaviours players had towards Legate's guilt could help give us some clues to which of them are the wolves. That's something I'd like to do, but I don't have time now, so it must wait.

The one-kill tactic isn't the smartest plan since it does give us more opportunities to lynch, but it still leaves us with uncertainty. We can't know for sure whether the wolves chose one kill or if Nogrod is actually guilty. We obviously don't want to repeat our mistake from yesterDay, but at the same time, we can't just disregard him. We need to lynch based on suspicious behaviour and not just from the results of the Night Guard. That's how it should be.

Btw, I'm not sure how active I'll be toDay since I am in the process of finding furniture for my bedroom.

[McCaber]

Well, all that I can say is that I was right. The guarding was an extremely easy tactic for the wolves to manipulate. In fact, I would not be surprised if the Legate lynch was largely driven by the wolves to see how much they could get away with.

Considering how wide the margin was in favor of Legate, I can even see all four wolves voting him. I mean, Nilp and I were the only ones who didn't, and I'm having a hard time seeing a wolf in him.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

INTENTIONS AND CAPABILITIES OF THE VILLAGERS OF UPPER DOWNSBURY

Prepared by Da Fool

For internal circulation only. DO NOT DISTRIBUTE.

Section 1: Known and Suspected Capabilities of the Villagers of Upper Downsbury

All villagers of Upper Downsbury are capable of casting a single vote towards the person they wish to be executed at the end of the DAY, and another vote towards the person they wish to be protected during the NIGHT by the Night Guard.

Some villagers are capable of things beyond the casting votes (see appendix: Gifts and Curses) but there remain at this moment no irrefutable evidence to confirm the manifestation of such gift or curse in any individual in the village.

Section 2: Stated Intentions of the Villagers of Upper Downsbury

• Yavannië the 3th of the Year 2009 of the Seventh Age: The villager known as Legate of Amon Lanc (henceforth referred to as Legate) received the vote of the majority of the villagers of Upper Downsbury, leading to the deployment of the Night Guard around the premises of his domicile. It has been proven that this protection disables whatever gift or curse the guarded person may possess.
  
  There being four Werewolves in the village there is great prejudice towards the killing of two villagers during the NIGHT, save if one of their fellows has been protected by the Night Guard.
  
  
• Yavannië the 4th of the Year 2009 of the Seventh Age: The murder of the villager known as Mnemosyne has been announced by the Mayor of Upper Downsbury, Eönwë. Later in the DAY, due to the evidence of the single kill during the previous NIGHT and his being under the protection of the Night Guard, Legate received the vote of the majority of the villagers of Upper Downsbury, leading to his execution by drowning.

Below are the statements of most of the living villagers, indicating their reasons for believing Legate guilty or otherwise. Conspicuously absent is the statement of the villager known as alonariel, who has not broken silence since the beginning of the Werewolf invasion.

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

I'm going out in a bit but think it is interesting that there was only one kill. Of course it could be that Legate's a wolf (LYNCH!) or the wolves could be trying to frame him. But I think the former may be more likely because you would think the wolves would want to get two kills in whenever possible. And besides, if we decided Legate was innocent they could always kill him toMorrow Night or something. So....I don't know. I'm too hungry to think. Back after supper.

Taking the unwillingness of the Werewolves to hold back on a second kill as fact, the villager known as Sally comes to a logical conclusion that Legate must be a Werewolf unable to perform his NIGHT function. Said argument has been repeated numerous times by other villagers during the DAY, and shall henceforth be referred to as logical conclusion.

Originally Posted by Hakon

Either my gut feeling about Legate being a wolf was right or the wolves are trying to trick us. I hope it is that Legate is just a wolf.

The villager known as Hakon uses his gut feel as evidence for Legate's guilt (said gut feeling has been indicated the previous day in this post. It is therefore important to determine if any plot has been made the previous DAY to give the appearance of substantiation to said feeling:

At the moment of the statement Legate has received four Guard votes from the following villagers: Brinniel, Nerwen, Shastanis Althreduin (henceforth known as Shasta), and Nogrod. There remain eight villagers to cast their Guard votes: Legate, wilwarin538 (henceforth known as wilwa), Pitchwife, alonariel, Thinlómien, Nessa Telrunya (henceforth known as Nessa), McCaber, and Nilpaurion Felagund (henceforth known as Nilp). However Nilp has stated his inability to continue participation in this post; furthermore alonariel and Nessa has not yet joined the discussion.

The possibility of a set-up exists but cannot be reasonable proven.

Originally Posted by wilwarin538

Suspicious
Legate: he made sense for the most part yesterDay, though there were inconsistencies here and there. The fact that there was only one kill last Night does point towards him, I doubt the wolves would have given up a second kill purely to set him up, doesn't seem at all worth it for them to do that. Pretty sure I'm gonna vote him.

Logical conclusion.

Originally Posted by Nilpaurion Felagund

If they had killed two last NIGHT, we would have had two leads to follow, plus Legate's innocence would have been proven.

The single kill is shocking, yes, but not without merit for them.

The writer refrains from analysing his own posts, and leaves it to the village to generate their own analysis from said posts.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

[ I]t does the wolves no good whatever to miss a kill in order to frame an innocent– unless one of the pack was in danger. If Legate's not a wolf, Wilwa might well be.

Logical conclusion, although considers the possibility of single-kill NIGHTs for framing up an innocent.

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

I think it would be more likely that the wolves would want to capitalize on the extreme luck re: the Kitanna lynch by using two kills rather than giving up one and framing Legate (can they even do that? Mod?) in my opinion.

Logical conclusion.

Originally Posted by Brinniel

So either Legate is a wolf or he's been framed, as others have already stated. Lynching him, there's the risk that we could be falling into a wolf trap...but then again, I think it could be even riskier to let him live if he is a wolf. I'd hate to have a wolf in our grasp, then just let him slip through. That's sort of how we lost last game. I can't really see why the wolves wouldn't want to take advantage of having two kills. Wouldn't they want to maximize the number of deaths while they can?

Logical conclusion.

Originally Posted by A Little Green

Whoa. I wasn't expecting that. I wasn't that suspicious about Leggie yesterDay, but I've been thinking and really can't come up with any sensible reason for the wolves to let pass a Night kill for the sake of framing Legate. Sure, they'd like seeing an innocent lynched, but it just doesn't make sense that they give up their other Night kill for that. Therefore I'll probably vote Legate toDay. It's simply much more evidence against him than there is against anyone else, and if we let him live and he turned out to be a baddie I'd drown myself in a bucket.

Logical conclusion.

Originally Posted by Inziladun

Though Legate does bring some vaild points, is there any way to be sure of him while leaving him alive?

The villager known as Inziladun indicates the impossibility of determining the truth behind the single-kill NIGHT without the death of Legate. Said argument has been repeated numerous times by other villagers during the DAY, and shall henceforth be referred to as Legate as test case.

Originally Posted by Nienna

Legate I believe you will be our case study. If we lynch you (as I believe we should) and you turn out innocent then we know we cannot trust the guarding results. We would then obviously not keep lynching those people who we have guarded and resort back to lynching those with suspicious voting, actions, etc.

Legate as test case.

Originally Posted by Boromir88

You say it looks easy, I think it looks too clean. Pitch brings up the niche in the rules, Legate and McCaber yesterday say the Night Guard could be used to frame an innocent. Now Legate is spiritly arguing he is being framed.

I will agree with Inzil that it's been an admirable defense, but that doesn't take away from the fact that the "framing defense" is one of the weakest. Think you're that important to the wolves, eh?

[ . . . ]

Now Legate is arguing he is being framed as an easy lynch, after setting up for the apparently "solid" defense the previous day. I say apparently solid, because shouting a "wolf set up conspiracy against me" is in fact...weak and the only reason Legate would use such a weak defense is because it's the only one he's got left after one wolf kill last night.

During the previous DAY Legate indicated the possibility of using the Guard vote as a way to catch a possible Werewolf in this post, and further considered the possibility of Werewolves framing an innocent guarded during the Night in this post. The villager known as Boromir88 (henceforth referred to as Boro) considers the possibility of a Werewolf Legate setting up his own defence in case the events that had indeed transpired should come to pass.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Somehow I think I was pretty suspicious of you and even made some points for it - and consequently wished to see what would happen if you were actually Night-guarded... and voilá, there was just one kill!

And anyway. It feels bad to lynch someone just because "we need to find it out" but that's exactly what I feel with you Legate. You're great to play with and looking at your defence one is once again affirming that you have the brains to make a difference, but now there is just too much at stake I'm afraid as getting the first wolf is of the essence for us. After that there will be only one kill per Night and everything will become a bit more less pressing. And sadly you seem to be our best bet now.

The villager known as Nogrod did indicate in this post and this post his suspicions towards Legate. The rest of the post, however, indicates Legate as test case. As is with the statement of Hakon, it is important to determine if any plot has been made the previous DAY to give the appearance of substantiation to said suspicion:

Nogrod has stated his intention to join a Guard Legate bandwaggon in the first post aforementioned. At the moment of the statement Legate has received two Guard votes from the following villagers: Brinniel, and Nerwen. The writer has searched the archives of the discussion in order to find evidence for the formation of such a bandwaggon, and found the following:

• Mnemosyne indicating her intention to vote Boro, Nogrod, or Legate to be subject to the Night Guard in this post; however she ends up voting for Boromir in this post, before the time of Nogrod's statement.
  
  
• The villager known as Pitchwife indicating his intention to vote Boro, Mnemosyne, and Nogrod to be subject to the Night Guard in this post. He includes Legate in his list with reservation that he is not fully convinced of his innocence. He ends up voting for Boro in this post, after the time of Nogrod's statement.

The writer has therefore detected no clear indication of a Guard Legate bandwaggon previous to Nogrod's statement. However the effect of such a statement on the realisation of such a bandwaggon is unknowable at this time; it is possible to speculate that there may indeed be multiple Werewolves in the Guard Legate bandwaggon to give substantiation to Nogrod's statements. Whether such has been done with Nogrod's complicity or without it is unknowable at this time.

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

I'm truly puzzled about Legate at the moment. As I said before, I found his #153 yesterday looking more innocentish than some of those before, and his arguments toDay are well reasoned, even if they happen to be in his own defense. There remains the one kill last Night when he was guarded. I can see the possibility of the wolves framing him - with the Seer dead, they may think they could afford losing one kill; and if he's innocent, he's attracting so much suspicion right now, detracting it from the wolves themselves, that they would be in no hurry to see him killed or lynched.
But that's all maybe; one way or another, we have to find out the truth. Suppose we Guard him one more night, would the wolves again be content with one kill?
That method would become useless, of course, if we happen to have the unbelievable luck of lynching a wolf toDay (instead of our Ranger or Hunter, or a plain ordo). It might be safer to lynch him toDay and lament him toMorrow, if he turns out to be innocent.

Pitchwife considers the possibility of an innocent Legate being framed, however ends with Legate as test case.

Originally Posted by McCaber

I cannot in good conscience vote Legate after I made a point yesterDay on what to do in this exact circumstance. So this right now is more of a look of suspicion than anything else:

++ Inziladun [highlight edited to avoid confusion with a real vote --ed.]

The villager known as McCaber indicated the possibility of a single-kill NIGHT to set up an innocent villager under Guard in this post.

Originally Posted by Nessa Telrunya

My dear people, I sincerely apologize for my prolonged absence! A commission for quite the intricate dress called upon my time.

It seems Legate is widely suspected. It's a valid point, that this is indeed a death that would shed some much needed light.

++Legate [highlight edited to avoid confusion with a real vote --ed.]

This is only post so far of the villager known as Nessa. The writer sympathises with the interference of 'real life' with participation in the game, and hopes to hear more from her.

Section 3: Conclusions

It is impossible to draw a hidden intention from the stated intentions of the living villagers of Upper Downsbury due to the repetition of the stated intentions of the aforementioned villagers, mainly the logical conclusion and the Legate as test case. There have been some anomalies detected in some of the villagers; unfortunately such anomalies are beyond the scope of this paper and will be addressed at a future date.

Some conclusions about certain villagers drawn from the analysis is as follows:

• Despite complicity in the death of Legate, Boro's innocence can reasonably be proven by the case the latter has made regarding the former.
• It can be construed that Nogrod, and to a lesser extent, Hakon, have used the events of the first DAY to substantiate their suspicions and strengthen their suspicions against Legate. However the writer evaluates the possibility as unlikely, such being beyond the control of the two aforementioned, save by the possibility of some of those who voted to subject Legate to the Night Guard being Werewolves and fellows to either of the two aforementioned. The writer would like to add his evaluation that Hakon may have been the first and only subject of the dreams of the Seer Kitanna.
• McCaber, having foreseen the possibility of the use of the single-kill NIGHT to frame an innocent villager up, eschews voting for Legate for reasons of conscience. The meaning of such a statement is impossible to ascertain at this moment.

Appendix

• Gifts and Curses: read the bloody rules.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Phew.

Right, you got your dates horribly screwed up, but whatever. It's DAY 1 and DAY 2, for crying out loud.

Adam, you're not in this game.

So sue me.

I shall, soon as I get a large enough needle.

Anyway, the only person I can trust in this village right now is Boro, so:

++Boromir88

The 'anomalies detected in some of the villagers' that I mentioned in my conclusion is mainly Inziladun and his posting. Having never played with him before, I do not know his playing style, therefore I do not have a basis for comparison. But reading them it seems he's at the edge of the crowd surrounding Legate, not really supporting them, but not being indifferent to it either. It seems he voted for Inziladun because he's dead, anyway (q.v.), which is, of course, how a Werewolf would have treated someone they set up. Add to that my unalleviated suspicion from the previous DAY, he'll be the recipient of my vote again toDAY.

++Inziladun

How come you didn't use those Latin abbreviations in your travesty of a white paper?

Oh, do be quiet. I'm tired, and I had to skip lunch for that. Be back the next DAY, Eru willing.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Nilpaurion Felagund

It seems he voted for Inziladun because he's dead, anyway.

I believe you mean, "he voted for Legate".

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Lynch tallies.

(Time reckoned from the start of the DAY, known innocents underlined, known baddies emphasised, person/s in the lead bolded.)

DAY 1:

+3:29 Nilp – Nilp (Nilp – 1)
+18:19 Mnemo – wilwa (Nilp – 1, wilwa – 1)
+18:50 Brinn – McCaber (Nilp – 1, wilwa – 1, McCaber – 1)
+20:22 Nerwen – Kitanna (Nilp – 1, wilwa – 1, McCaber – 1, Kitanna – 1)
+21:53 Shasta – Lommy (Nilp – 1, wilwa – 1, McCaber – 1, Kitanna – 1, Lommy – 1)
+22:09 Kitanna – Brinn (Nilp – 1, wilwa – 1, McCaber – 1, Kitanna – 1, Lommy – 1, Brinn – 1)
+22:32 Boro – Kitanna (Nilp – 1, wilwa – 1, McCaber – 1, Kitanna – 2, Lommy – 1, Brinn – 1)
+22:50 Zil – Kitanna (Nilp – 1, wilwa – 1, McCaber – 1, Kitanna – 3, Lommy – 1, Brinn – 1)
+23:00 Greenie – Nogrod (Nilp – 1, wilwa – 1, McCaber – 1, Kitanna – 3, Lommy – 1, Brinn – 1, Nogrod – 1)
+23:12 McCaber – wilwa (Nilp – 1, wilwa – 2, McCaber – 1, Kitanna – 3, Lommy – 1, Brinn – 1, Nogrod – 1)
+23:43 Hakon – Legate (Nilp – 1, wilwa – 2, McCaber – 1, Kitanna – 3, Lommy – 1, Brinn – 1, Nogrod – 1, Legate – 1)
+23:55 Pitchie – Kitanna (Nilp – 1, wilwa – 2, McCaber – 1, Kitanna – 4, Lommy – 1, Brinn – 1, Nogrod – 1, Legate – 1)
+23:57 Legate – wilwa (Nilp – 1, wilwa – 3, McCaber – 1, Kitanna – 4, Lommy – 1, Brinn – 1, Nogrod – 1, Legate – 1)
+23:57 Nienna – Zil (Nilp – 1, wilwa – 3, McCaber – 1, Kitanna – 4, Lommy – 1, Brinn – 1, Nogrod – 1, Legate – 1, Zil – 1)
+23:59 wilwa – Kitanna (Nilp – 1, wilwa – 3, McCaber – 1, Kitanna – 5, Lommy – 1, Brinn – 1, Nogrod – 1, Legate – 1, Zil – 1)
-0:00 Nogrod – Greenie (Nilp – 1, wilwa – 3, McCaber – 1, Kitanna – 5, Lommy – 1, Brinn – 1, Nogrod – 1, Legate – 1, Zil – 1, Greenie – 1)
-0:00 Lommy – Kitanna (Nilp – 1, wilwa – 3, McCaber – 1, Kitanna – 6, Lommy – 1, Brinn – 1, Nogrod – 1, Legate – 1, Zil – 1, Greenie – 1)
-0:00 Sally – Kitanna (Nilp – 1, wilwa – 3, McCaber – 1, Kitanna – 7, Lommy – 1, Brinn – 1, Nogrod – 1, Legate – 1, Zil – 1, Greenie – 1)

No vote: alonariel, Nessa

DAY 2:

+12:09 Nilp - Zil (Zil - 1)
+19:09 Nerwen - Legate (Zil - 1, Legate - 1)
+21:14 Boro - Legate (Zil - 1, Legate - 2)
+21:35 Greenie - Legate (Zil - 1, Legate - 3)
+22:11 Lommy - Zil (Zil - 2, Legate - 3)
+22:27 Nienna - Legate (Zil - 2, Legate - 4)
+23:00 wilwa - Legate (Zil - 2, Legate - 5)
+23:10 Brinn - Legate (Zil - 2, Legate - 6)
+23:34 Pitchie - Legate (Zil - 2, Legate - 7)
+23:39 McCaber - Zil (Zil - 3, Legate - 7)
+23:47 Nessa - Legate (Zil- 3, Legate - 8)
+23:53 Nogrod - Legate (Zil - 3, Legate - 9)
+23:55 Zil - Legate (Zil - 3, Legate - 10)
+23:58 Legate - Zil (Zil - 4, Legate - 10)
+23:59 Sally - Legate (Zil - 4, Legate - 11)

No vote: alonariel, Shastanis Althreduin

DAY 3:

+10:15 Nilp - Zil (Zil - 1)
+17:28 Nerwen - Zil (Zil - 2)
+19:42 Zil - Brinn (Zil - 2, Brinn - 1)
+20:29 Nogrod - abstain (Zil - 2, Brinn - 1)
+21:56 Nienna - Zil (Zil - 3, Brinn - 1)
+21:59 wilwa - Zil (Zil - 4, Brinn - 1)
+22:31 Brinn - Zil (Zil - 5, Brinn - 1)
+22:52 Greenie - Sally (Zil - 5, Brinn - 1, Sally - 1)
+23:40 Pitchwife - Boro (Zil - 5, Brinn - 1, Sally - 1, Boro - 1)
+23:51 Hakon - Nienna (Zil - 5, Brinn - 1, Sally - 1, Boro - 1, Nienna - 1)

No vote: alonariel, Nessa, Shastanis Althreduin, McCaber, Boromir88

[Nienna]

Nilp and Nerwen: I in no way meant to show disdain towards you for having inconvenient time zones. This is obviously not your fault. I was making a list and writing my thoughts. They were my thoughts and I do not apologize for having them.

Nilp: I find your lynch tallies to be the most useful of your posts and the most informative. Maybe it is because I like looking for patterns in things like that. So I do appreciate your posts. I guess I just like the organization and layout of things where I can see suspicion on a particular person in a certain section and you seem to place your suspicion more throughout your posts and I don't notice who exactly you think are wolves/acting suspicious. It seems a little non-committal which could be a way for a very experienced wolf to slip by us. I don't know how a Nilp-wolf acts so I just don't want to end up kicking myself later.

[Boromir88]

Now I'm beginning to wonder whether there is something along the lines of those secret roles that can deny the kills during the Nights, or something? That would be awesome actually...~Nogrod

Yes, maybe something along the lines of a person who can cause the sun to rise, thus ending the wolves night activities early if said person picks a number 1-6 and it is the same number the Mayor has rolled. The Mayor is a gambler right? That would be awesome...mind you this is just my random speculation.

Going through Inzil's posts now (thanks wilwa...but gotta say still suspect ye )

[Boromir88]

Random Thought 1.1

I don't think the wolves would seek to guard themselves. Why would vote to guard their fellows. Why would they seek to remove one of their own from the night time discussions? Wouldn't they desire to have full input from their fellows.

We know they found the way to beat the guard votes, but I can't see wolves seeking to NG one of their own, unless if there was no choice and it was a throw away to mislead us...But because of Inzil's guard votes, I'm inclined to think Pitch is innocent, and Nogrod probably too, but there is more doubt since that bandwagon made it pretty clear Nogrod would be protected.

Still it wouldn't make sense for wolves to want to NG eachother, especially a Nogwolf, he would not want to be silenced during the night.

One little thing about Shasta that bothers me and I didn't get a chance to bring up, when he said this towards Legate.

1. You say "us innocents", which is generally a baddie tell, ~Post 249

I don't like those types of suspicions, because it relies on certain words people use, and we all have common words or phrases we recycle. Just because we say I'd like to "see" more from this person or "watch" them doesn't mean we are saying "Hi. Im the seer!" Legate's usage of "us innocents" or identifying with the innocents shouldn't point to any one's wolvery or not, it's a very common thing to say in this game.

Ok, I didn't believe Legate, because I didn't find it conceivable that the wolves would not take advantage of their 2-kills...obviously I was wrong (and so did everyone else who decided to vote Legate)...but suspecting Legate in the way Shasta did, pointing out a common phrase many of us use looks bad. So, Shasta, whatcha got to say for yourself?

[Boromir88]

Usually I would never stick my neck out for Nerwen, because I never get a good read on her, and hence never ever trust her, but I think I will now. This read maybe the best I ever get on her, and I'm feeling innocent...if not congrats Nerwen.

She was the second to vote for Inziladun and the first to vote for Kit and Legate. Almost like she knew Legate was innocent and knew we would go after him. She just chose to get her vote out of the way early. Same thing with Kit.~Hakon

She's already made this point about Inzil, but you can say the same thing with Kitanna too. There was no indication that when Nerwen voted Kitanna was going to be lynched. If Kitanna felt she was in big danger of getting lynched, she would have revealed...she wouldn't have liked it, but she would have had to reveal.

Since it was Day 1, you could argue my 2nd vote made her a viable lynch option...fine. But take note that I was after Kitanna from the get go and any of the reasons against her were people bandwagoning onto my susicions. And that bandwagon really started against her once she left and Inzil hopped onto my suspicions.

I also think Pitch looks better than wilwa because even though wilwa could argue she was merely trying to save herself, she's also done a bang up job at being involved in the other wagons. Add on top of that Pitch's post where he says people should take a look at me (that of which I am much appreciated for because it made me aware of how crappy I've been playing and I need to get my rear in gear), but suddenly when I announce my suspicions on wilwa, she fires back latching onto Pitch's points suddenly saying the "re-reading" of my posts gave her a different feeling.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

Usually I would never stick my neck out for Nerwen, because I never get a good read on her, and hence never ever trust her, but I think I will now.

Well, thanks.

Look, I'm curious to know what other people think of Hakon, particularly his last post, which looks very like the work of a panicky wolf to me. Note that the other two people he's accusing there are Wilwa and Sally, who have both come under a good deal of suspicion themselves, particularly the former... so what I think about them now depends on what I think about him, if you see what I mean.

Now, I've skimmed through Inzilawolf's posts, and the trouble is he's had remarkably little real interaction with, or opinion on, any living players. I mean, a more detailed analysis might reveal something, but I haven't had time for that myself.

YesterDay he voted to guard Pitchwife and lynch Brinniel. The situation then was that he had two votes, no one else had any, and Nogrod had just made a case against Brinniel. That is a major point in her favour. However, at that point Inzilawolf must have known he stood a good chance of being lynched, so we can't rule out his voting a fellow wolf to make her look better.

Inzilawolf does, though, very helpfully explain why the pack decided to miss out on the second kill. (Unless, of course, the real reason is something he wanted to distract us from– either way, his responses here are one of the main reasons I voted him.)

EDIT:clarification; X'd with Pitchwife.

[Pitchwife]

*briefly breaks his seclusion to assimilate what's going on*

Originally Posted by Boromir88

Ok, I didn't believe Legate, because I didn't find it conceivable that the wolves would not take advantage of their 2-kills...obviously I was wrong (and so did everyone else who decided to vote Legate)

Fair enough - most of us made the same mistake. What bothered me was that when it became clear such an inconceivable frame had indeed happened, you didn't feel a need to comment on the fact but acted a bit like it never happened. But I suppose RL interference may be blamed for that.

Hakon, may I suggest you listen to Nerwen? After our shared blunder yesterDay, both of us would do well to do some thorough thinking before throwing around any wild suspicions.
As for Sally - I think her lack of a lynch vote is explained sufficiently by her #450, but her Guard vote which created that three-way tie worries me too, and thanks for pointing it out. It doesn't necessarily implicate Nerwen the way you construe it - a wolf-Sally might as well have wanted to make it harder for an innocent Nerwen to be Guarded, as an innocent Nerwen surely would have been a likely wolf-target. (By the way, Nerwen looks much better to me now Zil's guilt is revealed, and with hindsight I'd have preferred the protection to go to her.)
Why vote Shasta at all? As for myself, I remembered this by Brinn:

He's made few posts so far, but the ones he made do make me think him innocentish. I find Shasta is a good person to trust, so I'd like to know for sure that I can.

and it seemed a good reason to me. I'd also like to find out if those psychic powers of his really are what they're cracked up to be. It's possible Sally voted him for the same reason; and now I think of it, it's also possible that with her tallies gone to the virtual orcus, she wasn't aware of creating a three-way tie.
*back to seclusion for now*