Tol-in-Gaurhoth Threefold and Six: The Night Guard - The Barrow-Downs Discussion Forum

A Little Green · 09-07-2009, 08:05 AM

LEANING INNOCENT:
Boromir - He just seems so trustworthy and makes a lot of sense and Nilp brought up a good point about his innocence.
Nienna - She's constantly making shrewd points that make me think "A wolf wouldn't say this aloud". Good vibes this far.
Nilp - Good vibes and in addition to that, I think I already mentioned that I can't see a wolf voting for a fellow twice in a row. I believe Nilp was among the first to start suspecting Inziladun in the first place.
Pitchwife - He seems genuine and I doubt he would have defended Inziladun so openly had he been his fellow.

NO IDEA:
Brinniel - I'm still waiting for the werewolf game where I have a read on her. She feels genuine, but has fooled me before.
McCaber - Too little to go on.
Nessa - Yeah.
Nogrod - I'm confused about him. His early behaviour looked downright suspicious (I believe I have said enough about that subject already...), but he has improved a lot lately. So I don't know.
Shasta - Too little to go on.
wilwa - Another who confuses me to the point of causing me a headache.

LEANING EVIL:
Hakon - I already said why in my previous post. I'm wondering - could he be a new wolf or is it too easy to be true? (Just how many things have I called too easy during this game?)
Nerwen - Aaaaaaaargh. She is making my head ache so much.

Last Night I suspected her quite a bit, because a) she phrased her thought, on Day 2, in a way that seemed like she knew that Legate was not, in fact, a wolf, b) she has been acting like she knew why the wolves do this and that (a bit like Zil), and c) I certainly wouldn't put it past her to give a second vote to her fellow wolf (looking good if he gets lynched but not condemning him to a certain death at the gallows). However, her posts seem so sensible that it makes me doubtful.
Sally - I believe I have already stated why I suspect her.

Actually, now that I think of it, it's curious how Nerwen and Hakon, two of my suspects, suspect each other quite vocally. Could it be wolf-on-wolf? Hakon's sudden and hasty-looking attack on Nerwen could be something they had agreed that he do. Like, they had decided last Night that Nerwen and Hakon could pull a wolf-on-wolf suspicion thing. Hrmmmmmm.

But if Hakon is guilty and Nerwen is, too, it would make me think better of Sally, since it wouldn't quite fit the picture that Hakon pulls a planned attack on Nerwen and off-handedly mentions Sally as another one he's suspicious of.

EDIT: x-ed with Wilwa. Happy to see someone else around!

A Little Green · 09-07-2009, 08:11 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Wilwa

I think we should also all keep Nog in mind, I know Legate ended up being innocent, but that doesn't mean Nog is. I hate to think that he's a wolf just kind of skimming through.

Exactly. I'm sort of worried that people don't take him into account at all.

I had something smart to say but can't remember what it was.

My brain is leaking.

EDIT: x-ed with my topic.

Nogrod · 09-07-2009, 08:23 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by A Little Green

Exactly. I'm sort of worried that people don't take him into account at all.

I have just been too agreeable this far...

Which is kind of interesting ww-psychology -thing as I think I have really betrayed you all with not doing enough work in this game, and the result is that no one suspects me a lot and I'm alive on Day4... Interesting indeed. I mean when I really try my best to help I get lynched or Night-killed pretty early and rarely even a Day passes without bandwagons to lynch me.

Let's see if I manage to change that toDay...

Nogrod · 09-07-2009, 09:22 AM

A few words on the subject of Day2's voting.

Four people didn't vote for Legate and they all voted for Inzil-wolf. Of those both Lommy and Legate are dead and innocents. So that makes also Nilp and McCaber look good as well?

Legate doesn't of course vote for himself and we know that Lommy was furious about us lynching Legate - well consistently and arguingly against our interpretation of his status anyway.

Now as Nilp voted much earlier than anyone else and McCaber at the end I'd say they both could have acted thus as wolves. Which is not to say they are my prime suspects or anything like that but just that there is nothing to wash them clean there.

And btw. the fact that Nilp has voted twice in a row for Inzil-wolf is no guarantee of his innocence either. It is actually more suspicious as it is seldom that an innocent manages to vote for a wolf two times in a row. We are not that consistent because we don't know things...

But then again, unlike Nienna, I have found Nilp's posting the most insightful and wouldn't like to see him lynched at least at this point when I believe we have better candidates on offer.

Another thing that I thought looking back at the voting lists, and which has been speculated toDay, is the wolves' interest of voting their own to be guarded.

We have quite nothing concrete to share on the wolves' actions. Boro, me and Pitchwife know it for ourselves whether Inzil voted for his fellow to be guarded. Now looking at the thread in general, it looks the most like he followed the general trust of the villagers. So he tried to be as uncontroversial as possible? And at least in my case he was not voting for a mate to be guarded.

I do think it would not have been in their interests to get one of them guarded whilst there were four wolves left. With a villager guarded they had the initiative to choose what to do and the suspicion or insecurity following (which I see Wilwa restating once more) would be bad for them.

Now on whose decisions the guarded have been chosen (ie. whose votes decided) is another question to be sure.

But now as the double-kill option is over and done with the wolvish intentions might be different (with the double-kill option: guard vocal innocents and thus make them look suspicious to be lynched). Now they'd not like to see vocal players guarded as that would make them unkillable during the Nights.

That's what makes me suspect that "guard Shasta" -wagon of yesterDay. I mean wouldn't it be perfect we guarded someone who is going to be modfired anyway and left them with the widest possible range of possibilities for making the Night-kill? (Of course the wolves won't kill ones to be modfired?)

wilwarin538 · 09-07-2009, 09:36 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nogrod

That's what makes me suspect that "guard Shasta" -wagon of yesterDay. I mean wouldn't it be perfect we guarded someone who is going to be modfired anyway and left them with the widest possible range of possibilities for making the Night-kill? (Of course the wolves won't kill ones to be modfired?)

Hmm, that's actually brilliant. Like toDay if we were to guard Nessa and then she got modfired, really we're not actually guarding anyone, which the wolves would like. Still confused about that rule though, if Nessa or Shasta is modfired today the wolves don't get a kill?? Or am I still totally off on this?

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Four people didn't vote for Legate and they all voted for Inzil-wolf. Of those both Lommy and Legate are dead and innocents. So that makes also Nilp and McCaber look good as well?

Have to say that out of Nilp and McCaber, McCaber for me is the one who looks the most suspicious, since his vote was at the end of the Day when it was obvious Legate would be lynched (almost like he knew Legate would be innocent and didn't want to be a part of it, for fear of that making him look bad). I think one of them could be a wolf (probably not both), cause for all of the wolves to vote Legate (even though that would hide them well) just seems unlikely.

A Little Green · 09-07-2009, 08:30 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I'm not saying Shasta would be a wolf, probably not, but neither was there any foreseeable danger he would have been killed during the Night.

How about a no trace -kill? On top of that, no one really suspects Shasta so he doesn't have that big a chance of getting lynched - no, I can see why the wolves might have wanted to go for Shasta.

I think you have a point, though, about the Shasta-wagon coming out of the blue. Sally's guard vote, for example: where did that come from? I cheched those guard votes and it just struck me that Sally cast her guard vote at the last minute to create a three-way tie (Shasta, Pitchwife and Nerwen) in the guard votes. Could she have voted Shasta to try to avoid one of her fellows ending up being guarded? That presents us with a problem, though - why not vote the other one with three votes instead of bringing up a third candidate? It's possible, though, that Sally didn't know the votes (she even asked for a vote tally!) and thus voted one she had seen having some guard votes already. That would mean that if Sally is a werewolf, either Pitch or Nerwen could be one too.

Wait... Nerwen...

Looks far too easy. Aaaaaaargh.

EDIT: x-ed with Nogrod

09-07-2009, 08:05 AM	#1
A Little Green Leaf-clad Lady Join Date: Oct 2007 Posts: 1,571	LEANING INNOCENT: Boromir - He just seems so trustworthy and makes a lot of sense and Nilp brought up a good point about his innocence. Nienna - She's constantly making shrewd points that make me think "A wolf wouldn't say this aloud". Good vibes this far. Nilp - Good vibes and in addition to that, I think I already mentioned that I can't see a wolf voting for a fellow twice in a row. I believe Nilp was among the first to start suspecting Inziladun in the first place. Pitchwife - He seems genuine and I doubt he would have defended Inziladun so openly had he been his fellow. NO IDEA: Brinniel - I'm still waiting for the werewolf game where I have a read on her. She feels genuine, but has fooled me before. McCaber - Too little to go on. Nessa - Yeah. Nogrod - I'm confused about him. His early behaviour looked downright suspicious (I believe I have said enough about that subject already...), but he has improved a lot lately. So I don't know. Shasta - Too little to go on. wilwa - Another who confuses me to the point of causing me a headache. LEANING EVIL: Hakon - I already said why in my previous post. I'm wondering - could he be a new wolf or is it too easy to be true? (Just how many things have I called too easy during this game?) Nerwen - Aaaaaaaargh. She is making my head ache so much. Last Night I suspected her quite a bit, because a) she phrased her thought, on Day 2, in a way that seemed like she knew that Legate was not, in fact, a wolf, b) she has been acting like she knew why the wolves do this and that (a bit like Zil), and c) I certainly wouldn't put it past her to give a second vote to her fellow wolf (looking good if he gets lynched but not condemning him to a certain death at the gallows). However, her posts seem so sensible that it makes me doubtful. Sally - I believe I have already stated why I suspect her. Actually, now that I think of it, it's curious how Nerwen and Hakon, two of my suspects, suspect each other quite vocally. Could it be wolf-on-wolf? Hakon's sudden and hasty-looking attack on Nerwen could be something they had agreed that he do. Like, they had decided last Night that Nerwen and Hakon could pull a wolf-on-wolf suspicion thing. Hrmmmmmm. But if Hakon is guilty and Nerwen is, too, it would make me think better of Sally, since it wouldn't quite fit the picture that Hakon pulls a planned attack on Nerwen and off-handedly mentions Sally as another one he's suspicious of. EDIT: x-ed with Wilwa. Happy to see someone else around! __________________ "But some stories, small, simple ones about setting out on adventures or people doing wonders, tales of miracles and monsters, have outlasted all the people who told them, and some of them have outlasted the lands in which they were created."

09-07-2009, 09:22 AM	#4
Nogrod Flame of the Ainulindalë Join Date: Jan 2006 Location: Wearing rat's coat, crowskin, crossed staves in a field behaving as the wind behaves Posts: 9,308	A few words on the subject of Day2's voting. Four people didn't vote for Legate and they all voted for Inzil-wolf. Of those both Lommy and Legate are dead and innocents. So that makes also Nilp and McCaber look good as well? Legate doesn't of course vote for himself and we know that Lommy was furious about us lynching Legate - well consistently and arguingly against our interpretation of his status anyway. Now as Nilp voted much earlier than anyone else and McCaber at the end I'd say they both could have acted thus as wolves. Which is not to say they are my prime suspects or anything like that but just that there is nothing to wash them clean there. And btw. the fact that Nilp has voted twice in a row for Inzil-wolf is no guarantee of his innocence either. It is actually more suspicious as it is seldom that an innocent manages to vote for a wolf two times in a row. We are not that consistent because we don't know things... But then again, unlike Nienna, I have found Nilp's posting the most insightful and wouldn't like to see him lynched at least at this point when I believe we have better candidates on offer. Another thing that I thought looking back at the voting lists, and which has been speculated toDay, is the wolves' interest of voting their own to be guarded. We have quite nothing concrete to share on the wolves' actions. Boro, me and Pitchwife know it for ourselves whether Inzil voted for his fellow to be guarded. Now looking at the thread in general, it looks the most like he followed the general trust of the villagers. So he tried to be as uncontroversial as possible? And at least in my case he was not voting for a mate to be guarded. I do think it would not have been in their interests to get one of them guarded whilst there were four wolves left. With a villager guarded they had the initiative to choose what to do and the suspicion or insecurity following (which I see Wilwa restating once more) would be bad for them. Now on whose decisions the guarded have been chosen (ie. whose votes decided) is another question to be sure. But now as the double-kill option is over and done with the wolvish intentions might be different (with the double-kill option: guard vocal innocents and thus make them look suspicious to be lynched). Now they'd not like to see vocal players guarded as that would make them unkillable during the Nights. That's what makes me suspect that "guard Shasta" -wagon of yesterDay. I mean wouldn't it be perfect we guarded someone who is going to be modfired anyway and left them with the widest possible range of possibilities for making the Night-kill? (Of course the wolves won't kill ones to be modfired?) __________________ Upon the hearth the fire is red Beneath the roof there is a bed; But not yet weary are our feet...