Tol-in-Gaurhoth Threefold and Six: The Night Guard

[Brinniel]

Originally Posted by Greenie

BUT if we lynch an innocent toDay, Shasta and Nessa both miss the lynch and are innocent and the wolves manage a kill next Night, we'll be down to 7 innocents and 3 wolves.

Well yes, Shasta could be modfired if he doesn't vote toDay, but Nessa still has both toDay and toMorrow to vote since she did on Day 2. I know, it's hard to remember since it was her only post. But yeah, all this potential modfire that could occur... *grumbles*

[Brinniel]

I don't really care for Pitchwife's defense in his first post toDay. It's the first thing he does at the very beginning of the Day before anyone even starts to accuse him of anything. Preparing a defense before the accusations are made can be a very wolfish thing to do.

I'm wondering how likely it is Hakon's a wolf. His strong defense for Inzil is bold and looks quite bad, but would he be so obvious were he a wolf? Though Hakon is still pretty new to WW and I don't think he's been a wolf before, so I suppose there's a chance it could've been a newbie wolf error.

[Nienna]

Originally Posted by Hakon

I just got on and had time to read most of the posts but I only skimmed this last page here. So far I only have gut feelings about two people. Those people are Legate and Boro. My gut feeling with Legate is just that something is off and it is bothering me. My gut feeling about Boro is that he is an innocent.

++Boro

[lynch vote]++Legate[/lynch vote]

He didn’t have a lot of time to analyze so he went with his gut. Not the best because his gut was wrong but not unheard of for Day One.

Originally Posted by Hakon

Either my gut feeling about Legate being a wolf was right or the wolves are trying to trick us. I hope it is that Legate is just a wolf.

Originally Posted by Hakon

Speaking of me I am here now. What is bothering me a whole is the fact that you all keep arguing over whether we lynch Legate or not. The way I see it no matter what people say Legate is most likely going to end up lynched. Who else are you going to lynch? There are some other people who come off as suspicious enough to lynch but most of you are not going to pass off an opportunity to lynch a possible wolf. From what I can tell Legate will deny being a wolf up until he is lynched even if he is one. Well I know he did that in one game when the seer accused him of being a wolf. Legate denied being a wolf even when it was clear that he was a wolf and going to be lynched. The game I am talking about is Lommy's game with the four Nazgul instead of wolves. Oh and on a side note, thank you Pitchwife for recommending I read that when I was dead last game. Overall my point is that most likely Legate is going to end up lynched whoever is the next best wolf suspect will probably end up guarded.

EDIT: Fixed a typo that Sally pointed out.

Mentions how we are probably going to lynch Legate even though he is professing his innocence which can very well be a sign of guilt. It seems he is trying to dissuade people from listening to Legate. This was kind of a crucial time before Legate had too many votes so that is interesting. I don’t know… something about the wording and such in this post strikes me as odd. He seems like he is distancing himself from the village.

Originally Posted by Hakon

I have to go now. I will be back by deadline. Before I go I want to put in my lynch vote.

[lynch vote]++Legate[/lynch vote]

I also want to say that I think Alona is lurking. I have nothing to back up this thought or anything that makes it seem true. It is just something that I thought of and I think that is the case. My guess is she will pop up before deadline and make her vote.

Pitchwife, you suggest guarding Legate again and to me it makes it sound like you want him to live. If Legate turns out to be a wolf it suggests that you are also a wolf.

Votes early even though he says he will be back by deadline. 3rd vote for Legate so at this time there could still be time for a different lynch candidate. Makes a random statement about Alona lurking that looks like a possible set up for if she did happen to come back… slightly unsettling.

Originally Posted by Hakon

Time for my guard vote.

++Nogrod

I am voting him for the same reason as Cab and Inzil.

This is interesting… he votes for Nog for the same reasons as McCaber and Zil… yet Zil’s reasons were “for Cab’s reasons” (333)… and McCaber’s reasons were rushed and because “he’s been making a lot of sense, and I’d rather seem him alive” (319)

Originally Posted by Hakon

Well now we know the wolves are killing one a night. I kind of feel like this is partially Legate's fault that they have done it again. I feel this way since yesterday when defending himself he outlined how if the wolves killed one a night they could escape lynching more easily.

One thing I would like to state is that we need to look at the Legate voters. There has to be at least one wolf amongst them. My guess is that the wolf is one of the earlier voters rather than the ones who voted Legate closer to deadline. I think that if there is one wolf amongst the voters this is the case but if there are more than one then this is probably not the case for all of them.

Another thing is the wolves probably expect us to lynch Nogrod today. I think we should try to avoid doing that.

Pretty self-explanatory…

Originally Posted by Hakon

I bet it has to do with the fact that Lommie was one of the only people to not vote for Legate. Inziladun, she did vote for you. Maybe you are a wolf and are worried because she was on to you so you convinced your fellow wolves to support killing her.

With looking at Legate voters we should definitely look at some of the ones who voted earlier in the day. I think there is a large chance that some wolf just wanted to get their vote out of the way and they knew they would be voting for Legate.

I agree with you Nogrod that we should look at the Inziladun voters.

One thing we also need to think about is part of the safety the wolves gain from killing one a night. Because we know that at least once the wolves have chosen to kill one a night we expect it to always have been their choice. It could happen that we end up guarding a wolf and we just assume that they chose to have one kill that night. It could mean a wolf not getting lynched.

Logical.

Originally Posted by Hakon

I am going to start off this post by saying do not lynch Inziladun. I think the wolves set up last night so we either lynch Nogrod or Inziladun. Out of the four Inziladun voters, only two are alive. So far we have assumed they are innocent. The wolves expected us to make that assumption. They want us to lynch Inziladun. It is clear that both he and Nogrod are the prime lynch targets today. We should lynch neither of them.

One person I am somewhat suspicious of is Pitchwife. The reason is because he does not come off even the slightest bit suspicious in this game. In past games he has always been a gifted and has come off somewhat suspicious. I think it is obvious that he is either a wolf or an innocent.

Doesn’t want to lynch Zil. Thinks Pitchwife is suspicious for really faulty reasoning.

Originally Posted by Hakon

I know. In the part of my post that you quoted I was simply stating the obvious.

I thought about it some more and I think Pitchwife is innocent. So far he has only had the role of gifteds so it is logical that he would given the role of an innocent this time. He also is coming off as innocent in this game whereas when he has had the role of a gifted he has not come off as innocent.

++Pitchwife

People, do not vote Inziladun. As I have said earlier the wolves want this. Do not vote for him. The wolves have set it up so we either end up lynching Inziladun today or the guard from last night which is Nogrod. We should not lynch either of them.

Still doesn’t want to lynch Zil but no longer finds Pitchwife suspicious… actually votes to protect him.

Originally Posted by Hakon

I have been saying almost all day that he was set up by the wolves to be lynched today. Hopefully people will listen to you since they failed to listen to me when I said it. The wolves set up two lynching targets, Inziladun and Nogrod. For what seems like the billionth time we should not lynch either of them. So far it is clear that Nogrod is safe and it seems that Inziladun is going to be lynched. Pitchwife, I also plan not to be part of the wagon this time.

Originally Posted by Hakon

[lynch vote]++Nienna[/lynch vote]

Something about her is off. Sadly this is a gut feeling and I am going to get hell for it especially if Inziladun turns out guilty. Still something is off about Nienna.

Really really doesn’t want to vote Zil so votes for me instead… based on a gut feeling which has been proven a faulty way of reasoning already this game.

Originally Posted by Hakon

It is not just unfair to them. It is boring. Knowing who will die takes away the excitement from the game.

I feel like there is a giant target on my back today, even though none of you are coming after me. I regret defending Inziladun yesterday. I really thought he was innocent.

My number one suspect right now is Nerwen. She was the second to vote for Inziladun and the first to vote for Kit and Legate. Almost like she knew Legate was innocent and knew we would go after him. She just chose to get her vote out of the way early. Same thing with Kit. With Inziladun it seems like she was ready to turn on her fellow wolf just to escape suspicion herself. She probably realized that it would be a bandwagon for Inziladun, so she just got her vote out of the way.

I am also suspicious of Sally and Wilwa. Wilwa just because she was involved in all three bandwagons and Sally in the first two but she did not vote yesterday. If she had time to make that quick post where she made her guard vote, I would think that she had time to add a quick lynch vote as well. Almost like she wanted to escape condemning a fellow wolf. I think she voted Shasta because she was worried that her possible fellow wolf Nerwen might be guarded. At the time when Sally voted, Nerwen and Pitch both had three votes and Shasta had two votes. By making it a three way tie Sally had made it a little bit harder for Nerwen to get guarded.

One thing I want to add, is that I do not get why three people voted for Shasta yesterday. He has not been around at all and it was unlikely that he would get killed the next night. It seems like a throwaway vote, the same really as voting for yourself.

On the whole I don’t think him the most suspicious of people. On my continuum of innocent to wolf he is closer to wolf than innocent though.

[Nerwen]

The Shasta Voters:

1.Nienna.
Day 1: Lynch Inzil, guard Mnemo (2).
Day 2: Lynch Legate (5), guard Nerwen (2).
Day 3: Lynch Inzil (3), guard Shasta (1).

2.Pitchwife
Day 1: Lynch Kitanna (4), guard Boro (4).
Day 2: Lynch Legate (8), guard Nogrod (2).
Day 3: Lynch Boro, guard Shasta (2).

3.Sally
Day 1: Lynch Kitanna (6), guard Mnemo.
Day 2: Lynch Legate (12), guard Nienna.
Day 3: Lynch Nobody, guard Shasta (3).

Following Sally's own system, innocents are in italics, known wolves are underlined.

Points against them:

Well, all three were Legate voters–who wasn't? However, Pitchwife and Sally also cast very bandwagonning votes on Kit.

Pitchwife argued strongly against lynching Inzilawolf, and stressed the theory that he had been framed. I'm inclined to think Pitchy a misguided innocent, but you never know...

Sally has done little except post tallies, a favourite lupine trick for appearing to contribute more than you're doing.* She also brought Shasta to a tie.

There is nothing I can think of against Nienna, unless it's that she might indeed be a little too good to be true. *shrugs*

X'd since Brinniel at #497.
*Yes, I know I'm doing it now.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Nienna

On the whole I don’t think him the most suspicious of people. On my continuum of innocent to wolf he is closer to wolf than innocent though.

Out of curiosity, who do you find the "most suspicious"?

–Anyway, I'm going to try voting him.

Lynch:

++Hakon

I'm not at all sure about this, though– in fact I seem to be flip-flopping in a manner worthy of Lommy. At one read he seems just like a clumsy wolfcub– perhaps under instructions to play up his inexperience– at others like a garden variety confused ordo.

Guard:

++Nienna.

Despite being one of the Shasta Three, she seems okay, and has contributed a lot. (I'm not ruling out that she could be an extremely sneaky wolf, but at the moment she's low on my suspicion list.)

[Nerwen]

Good Night, and let's hope we lynch the right person!

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

*sigh*

So, apart from Nienna, everyone who voted the wolf looks bad to you?

Similarly, I recall that on Day 3 at least one person found the non-Legate voters more suspicious than all us pure-souled, high-minded types who strung him up. Look, it's true that wolves can indeed use their secret knowledge to vote "well", but doing so is not, in itself, evidence of guilt (merely not proof of innocence). This is getting silly.

I'm afraid I failed miserably at making myself clear. No, I wasn't saying practically everyone who voted the wolf looks guilty. I was saying that at least one of them is probably a wolf and was pondering who is the most likely candidate (and didn't get too far, as you doubtlessly noticed). I agree with the point you bring in the end of the second paragraph.

Sally creeps me out. I'm flip-flopping about Nerwen because she feels innocent but my theories point against her. Hakon is another I'm considering as my lynch-target toDay. What about you others? I'd like to hear about who you think of voting. Just so as to avoid throwing away my precious vote.

[A Little Green]

A sidenote: I will not be around much longer and have to vote very soon. Whether it will be Sally, Nerwen or Hakon I have no idea yet. Probably not Nerwen since I feel so flip-floppy about her at the moment, so it's Sally or Hakon. Is there any support for either of these? The problem is, I suspect Sally more but Hakon already has one vote so is maybe a bit more likely to actually get lynched. What to do?

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

Is there any support for either of these? The problem is, I suspect Sally more but Hakon already has one vote so is maybe a bit more likely to actually get lynched. What to do?

I think you might have them on top of many agendas... even if they wouldn't be the only ones.

[wilwarin538]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

A sidenote: I will not be around much longer and have to vote very soon. Whether it will be Sally, Nerwen or Hakon I have no idea yet. Probably not Nerwen since I feel so flip-floppy about her at the moment, so it's Sally or Hakon. Is there any support for either of these? The problem is, I suspect Sally more but Hakon already has one vote so is maybe a bit more likely to actually get lynched. What to do?

A part of me wants to vote for Boro, but it doesn't look like anyone else is going for that so I probably won't bother, plus that is more from feeling anyway. Between Hakon and Sally I'm more inclined to go with Hakon toDay. But I was also considering voting McCaber...hmmm....

I need some more time to think through it. But I will probably have to vote within the next hour or so, there's a chance I may not be around for the DL.

edit: x'ed with Greenie.

[Nogrod]

Back again... and just on the top of affairs, kudos to you Nienna for reminding us about this (talking of Hakon voting to guard me by saying: "I am voting him for the same reason as Cab and Inzil..")

Originally Posted by Nienna

This is interesting… he votes for Nog for the same reasons as McCaber and Zil… yet Zil’s reasons were “for Cab’s reasons” (333)… and McCaber’s reasons were rushed and because “he’s been making a lot of sense, and I’d rather seem him alive” (319)

Well I'm totally torn between the same options Nerwen so eloquently phrases:

Originally Posted by Nerwen

At one read he seems just like a clumsy wolfcub– perhaps under instructions to play up his inexperience– at others like a garden variety confused ordo.

So a too easy wolf-catch or just something completely different?

I can't pin it down to a few clear arguments right now but I'm actually getting a bit afraid of Pitchie... Looking at Nerwen's last tally of "Shasta-guarders" didn't exactly lessen that feeling. And I haven't forgotten my suspicion on Sally either... even if I do appreciate the tallies!

These are not just gut feelings, but are based on some things I have read and thought a second time at some point in the game (sadly I haven't written them all up) - and basically I'm afraid of you all right now; like you Boro are too snappy and looking like trying to "sniff the mood" to start things on others; or you Greenie nicely staying on the background but basically doing the same thing; or Wilwa making such an effort to look the most reasonable person there is - like Nerwen does... And what/whonot...

I try to express at least some of my fears after I have watched the latest episode of 24 that is beginning in a moment (yes bad TV, repulsive even, but I 'm interested on how the new regime in the US. changes the series background-values - or does it).

[McCaber]

So it seems that the modfire+no kill was a one-time thing. Ah well.

Hakon is doing his level best to appear suspicious, while Pitchwife is doing the exact opposite. He's taking actions which look suspicious, but he explains himself well and seems genuine. I know, a rather simple analysis, but it works for me.

I am wary of joining the Hakon wagon, just because his actions scream "cobbler" or "confused" much more than wolf. Although, a wolf hiding in plain sight like that is possible, it's just not the read I'm getting.

[Hakon]

I hate having to defend myself, but I will.

Lets start it off with a simple phrase. I am not a wolf. Yes I did run on gut feelings day one because I was busy and I did not have time to read the posts when I got home. I just wanted to make deadline. I think that sometimes gut feelings can be good. Day two I truly thought Legate was a wolf, as did most of us. I was wrong in suspecting that. Yesterday I was wrong in thinking Inziladun was innocent but it seemed like the wolves had set him up. Nerwen, you are too good at starting bandwagons. You make one vote for me and it is enough to get a second vote for me, which is soon going to turn into a bandwagon. Yes today my arguments against people were hasty as some of you pointed out. Truthfully I just wanted to point my suspicions at someone and I did. I was in a hurry so I did not do my best to explain them. I apologize for that.

McCaber, there are no cobblers in this game. I am not a cobbler. I am not trying to appear suspicious. Although that idea is good. McCaber, I think you are under the radar too much. That is my sole reason for being suspicious of you.

[wilwarin538]

Alright, well since I may or may not be able to make it on later, I don't want to risk missing the chance to vote so I'm going to do it now

++ Guard Nienna

since she's making sense.

++McCaber

since I find him more suspicious then Hakon, who I'm starting to think may just be misguided.

Might still manage to show up later, but just incase I don't I wish you all good luck!

[Nogrod]

Even without Wilwa's vote... please McCaber, what are you doing?

Just explain a little... what do you think of people? A wolf would do well just mentioning one or two and backing away from every slight suspicion he made. Good Public Relations but not too good if trying to catch the wolves.

[Boromir88]

and basically I'm afraid of you all right now; like you Boro are too snappy and looking like trying to "sniff the mood" to start things on others~Nogrod

Snappy, yes, because I'm finding out I'm having only about 2 hours a day, total to be on read everything and then post. The way I normally like to do things hasn't been possible.

But, I'm not sure how I have been "sniffing the mood." I've said my suspicions are Shasta and Wilwa, and I said why. Plus currently Nog, Pitch, and Nerwen look innocent. The rest I'm unsure, because I really haven't given much thought towards them. How is announcing suspicions and the ones I feel innocent about "sniffing the mood?" I thought that was the purpose of this thing.

++wilwa

because I said so...and

++Guard Nilp

also, because I said so.

[Nogrod]

I'm getting through the last two Days now but may throw some individual points to ask of people when I feel I'd like to hear some clarifications - or if I think the matter urgent enough to voice early enough...

Now what say you Pitchie about this?

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

So I'm inclined to think both Nog and Zil rather innocent at the moment, and I'm also inclined to look for the majority of our wolves among

* the supporters of The Plan and
* the Legate bandwagon.

It was early Days to be sure, but that's to the point... Were you trying to make people think it that way because you really thought that way yourself or did you try to make us think that way for some other reason?

I mean everyone should have realised at that point that "the plan" would have been good to us and not following it turned out a disaster. We should look at the opposers of the plan with scrutiny, not the proponents of it (well we should look at everyone but with this matter I'm inclined to suspect the opposition as it clearly was something that would have made the wolves take the pain). Yes, people don't always think things through and that's normal but we could try to see who was faking her/his confusion about the real stakes.

Also the Legate bandwagon was totally useless... well almost... but why did you want to think it that way like trying to sway the looks from the Inzil-voters?


Also with Boro I'm a bit uneasy with this kind of throw-aways:

Originally Posted by Boro

Nogrod, just because there was only one kill again last night, doesn't mean you are now automatically innocent. That one kill still makes you look suspicious in my eyes, the difference is now we know not to lynch someone based on those reasons alone. I'll be watching and waiting for your slip, be afraid, be very afraid.

First of all I don't think I never said I was innocent before this post (I think I said it toDay though) not to talk of me requiring you to think of me as one. Well I am innocent (second call), but I can't require you to believe me just by my word or by any dubious standard relating on how the wolves choose to play their game ot not. The problem with this is that you make it look like I have claimed innocense because of that Night's actions which I haven't and thence trying to claim something which basically a wolf would try to claim. But if you were a wolf wishing to see me lynched that would actually be the exact subtle way of trying it out whether others would pick on it.

Also this "be afraid!" or the latter "beware wolves, you've awakened the bear..." - with no consequences ever - look downright rhetorical, not genuine. Sorry.

But I see there have been a host of posts so let me quit for a while to read what has been said meanwhile...

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by McCaber

All right, all right. I'll get up. You topsiders have no consideration for some people's schedules.

So my thoughts on the day this far: Dang, there are a lot of people. It's going to be touch and go for a while, what with these two kills a night business. But hopefully we can pull off a protect choice that limits the wolves.

Although we shouldn't be hasty to lynch someone we protected if there's only one kill. That seems to be a very easy way for the pack to manipulate the village. Granted, it would only work one time at most, but it could still backfire horribly.

Says the game may start out rough, but hopes we can limit kill numbers early on.

Then he says that if we protect someone and there's only one kill we shouldn't be overeager and lynch them right away (also known as the Silly Sally plan of now Fail). Says it's too easy for the pack to mess with our minds in this way (which did in fact happen) and that while it could work to our advantage it's a risk.

Nothing really to say here, but I wanted to point the second bit out because it comes into play later.

Originally Posted by McCaber

The miner's pretty sure who they're going to vote tonight, but I'm still not sure on who to protect.

So, just to get a viewpoint of suspicion across,

++wilwa

for silly discussion on the previous pages that could have an adverse effect to the village's safety.

It's Day One. Most of the discussion is silly. Although I think he's referring to Mnemo's proposed plan, which is why he says 'adverse effect'.

Also, the 'they're' looks weird to me. Don't know why, besides the obvious, which is....well, too obvious. Blah. Probably just a silly Cabbie thing.


DAY TWO

Originally Posted by McCaber

Well so far I don't have any more brilliant insights. Although for what it's worth I think we have time for a Legate lynch toDay, and be ready to sort things out later.

But much of my thought process is pending on what happens toDay yet.

So before he said that we shouldn't use the protections to determine our lynches, but now he thinks a Legate lynch is acceptable. This just seems too slick for me, especially with the 'but I'll see how the Day goes and then decide which side to take' at the end. I don't like it.

Originally Posted by McCaber

Well, I'm back. And toDay has certainly been more interesting than I originally wanted. We have Legate arguing his innocence, and ... just about everyone but Legate wanting to lynch him.

Right now I'm not prepared to argue either way, but I'll stay connected and think about what this shows about the "everyone but Legate" crowd.

So he just sums up what's going on and says he can't make up his mind. Erm, k.

Originally Posted by McCaber

Well, I am forced away beyond my control. A hurried vote to guard

++ Nogrod

mostly because he's been making a lot of sense, and I'd rather see him alive.

I cannot in good conscience vote Legate after I made a point yesterDay on what to do in this exact circumstance. So this right now is more of a look of suspicion than anything else:

++ Inziladun

Finally seems to make up his mind, and it appears an attempt to cover his earlier statement. Seems to me that he's saying "go ahead and lynch Legate, but I can't be involved because otherwise I'll contradict myself and look bad".

Also, I noted this before, although only briefly. This would be a really good move for a packmate of Dun, and here's why. Legate's pretty much screwed, so voting Dun isn't a dangerous move. Also, if/when Dun was lynched and proven guilty, Cabbie could pull a "I told you so" and look more innocent for making a case for Dun before most other people. So basically this jumps him up on my wolf radar, a lot.

(By extreme extension this leads me to believe the Wilwa and Cabbie will not be in a pack together. He voted to kill her on Day One when it was still possible she'd be lynched, so while it's possible I don't think it's the case.)


DAY THREE

Originally Posted by McCaber

Well, all that I can say is that I was right. The guarding was an extremely easy tactic for the wolves to manipulate. In fact, I would not be surprised if the Legate lynch was largely driven by the wolves to see how much they could get away with.

Considering how wide the margin was in favor of Legate, I can even see all four wolves voting him. I mean, Nilp and I were the only ones who didn't, and I'm having a hard time seeing a wolf in him.

Erm....okay, nice of you to confess there, friend. Mind telling us who your other two packmates are then? That'd be ever so helpful of you!

Originally Posted by McCaber

Well, I'm here, but I don't know for how long. Man, this is just not working with my schedule so far.

I am glad that Nogrod seems innocent, and no one is considering lynching him just because of the one kill. One thing that comes to mind is that the pack must want to draw the game out, rather than use the two kills to achieve a faster victory. Maybe it speaks of (over)confident wolves, or maybe of submarines who blend into the background.

And I will say that I still think The Plan was a bad idea. A revealed Seer is vulnerable, and we would have no real way of testing the veracity of such a claim.

EDIT: crossed with Brinn

I don't think there's much in this, other than more logicless logic and useless points. (E.g. his commentary on the plan, which has been extinct for like two Days now.) Mentions Nog, but I'm not getting a feeling about it one way or another so meh.


DAY FOUR

Originally Posted by McCaber

About the one kill: our mod said yesterDay that the wolves would only get one night kill on top of alona. Since we lynched Inzil, presumably that means that the wolves only got one kill total, which they then used on alona instead of who they really wanted.

This....makes no sense to me. They knew Alona was getting modfired so why kill her? There's no reason (especially now) for them to lose the kill just because of this. (I know this has been mentioned somewhere else so I'm going to read through this section of the thread again, but I make this statement from a strategy standpoint, not a 'somehow they weren't allowed a kill' standpoint.) If nothing else it looks plain weird.

Originally Posted by McCaber

So it seems that the modfire+no kill was a one-time thing. Ah well.

Hakon is doing his level best to appear suspicious, while Pitchwife is doing the exact opposite. He's taking actions which look suspicious, but he explains himself well and seems genuine. I know, a rather simple analysis, but it works for me.

I am wary of joining the Hakon wagon, just because his actions scream "cobbler" or "confused" much more than wolf. Although, a wolf hiding in plain sight like that is possible, it's just not the read I'm getting.

And again, he's making judgements and then saying "but I could be wrong, so I best not say anything". Could be an attempt to distance himself from a packmate Pitchie/Hakon while not appearing to support them completely, but I'm not sure.


Overall Cabbie seems very off to me, from his voting to just some of the statements he makes. I'm definitely seeing him as a top suspect.

[Pitchwife]

Hi, I'm back.
Brinn, about my earlier defense - let me just say I was dismayed at my error (not the first in this game) and felt I owed the village some open words. True, there were no accusations at the time, but I could see them coming, and as I knew I would be away for quite a while (for RL reasons) I thought I'd say what I had to say while I had the time. But I won't belabour the point any more.

Hakon - well, I don't know. Wouldn't a wolf-cub have been briefed a little better by his packmates? My impression is more like he's on his own and out in deep water and desperately flailing around. But I'm not sure whether to trust that judgement at the moment.

McCaber, while you're around, I have some questions about this statement of yours from yesterDay:

And I will say that I still think The Plan was a bad idea. A revealed Seer is vulnerable, and we would have no real way of testing the veracity of such a claim.

1. Why bring up the matter again at all long after The Plan had been rendered void?
2. Don't you think it probable that if Kit had revealed on Day 1, she would have escaped lynching? If not, why? True, we couldn't have tested her veracity on the spot, but don't you think enough of us would have given her the benefit of doubt to ensure her survival that Day.
3. Between the NG and the Ranger, don't you think we could have kept her alive for, let's say, 2-3 Nights at least? If not, why? And even if she'd been killed eventually before she could dream a wolf, would we be any worse off than we are now?
I'm more interested in your reasoning than in the matter itself, which, as I said, has long been void. But that statement just confused me.

Nogrod - the main thing I found somewhat suspicious about you earlier was that during most of the game up to now, I got the impression you had been replaced with some HongKong imitation - looking almost like the original, but cheaper to produce and just not quite as good as the genuine article. Obviously you've realized that yourself, and as you seem to be coming back to true shape lately, I'm much more inclined to trust you (be afraid of me as much as you like - I don't expect otherwise, and I can take it).
There's still the matter of the one kill the Night you were Guarded, of course. I'm not inclined to make a judgement based on that alone, after the Legate desaster, but I still think wilwa's #441 yesterDay had a good point.

(x-ed with Sally #518 ff.)

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

Nogrod - the main thing I found somewhat suspicious about you earlier was that during most of the game up to now, I got the impression you had been replaced with some HongKong imitation - looking almost like the original, but cheaper to produce and just not quite as good as the genuine article.

This is pretty much the best thing ever, by the way.


Internet's flaring up again so I'll be back with my Hakon post when I can.

[Nienna]

Since I was mostly done when Sally posted hers... here is just a different perspective and now I shall go read hers.

Originally Posted by McCaber

All right, all right. I'll get up. You topsiders have no consideration for some people's schedules.

So my thoughts on the day this far: Dang, there are a lot of people. It's going to be touch and go for a while, what with these two kills a night business. But hopefully we can pull off a protect choice that limits the wolves.

Although we shouldn't be hasty to lynch someone we protected if there's only one kill. That seems to be a very easy way for the pack to manipulate the village. Granted, it would only work one time at most, but it could still backfire horribly.

Warning us about how the wolves could manipulate the guarded with only sending in one Night kill. This looks as if it could be a wolf with insider knowledge.

Originally Posted by McCaber

The miner's pretty sure who they're going to vote tonight, but I'm still not sure on who to protect.

So, just to get a viewpoint of suspicion across,

[lynch vote]++ wilwa[/lynch vote]

for silly discussion on the previous pages that could have an adverse effect to the village's safety.

Seems reasonable.

Originally Posted by McCaber

Well so far I don't have any more brilliant insights. Although for what it's worth I think we have time for a Legate lynch toDay, and be ready to sort things out later.

But much of my thought process is pending on what happens toDay yet.

Says he’s willing to lynch Legate today and sort it out later but it will depend on the rest of the Day… even though the day before he warned us of this exact thing.

Originally Posted by McCaber

Well, I'm back. And toDay has certainly been more interesting than I originally wanted. We have Legate arguing his innocence, and ... just about everyone but Legate wanting to lynch him.

Right now I'm not prepared to argue either way, but I'll stay connected and think about what this shows about the "everyone but Legate" crowd.

The bolded part is notable… not sure why he didn’t want the Day to be interesting. He seems not sure whether or not to join against Legate.

Originally Posted by McCaber

Well, I am forced away beyond my control. A hurried vote to guard

++ Nogrod

mostly because he's been making a lot of sense, and I'd rather see him alive.

I cannot in good conscience vote Legate after I made a point yesterDay on what to do in this exact circumstance. So this right now is more of a look of suspicion than anything else:

[lynch vote]++ Inziladun[/lynch vote]

This makes a little bit more sense considering how he did warn us of the possible wolf trap for lynching Legate… but earlier in the day it seemed like he was feeling out how everyone would react to Legate before voting him. I don’t know but it seems like he is trying to stay out of the wagon and then voting for wolf. Both of these things could be done by a wolf.

Originally Posted by McCaber

Well, all that I can say is that I was right. The guarding was an extremely easy tactic for the wolves to manipulate. In fact, I would not be surprised if the Legate lynch was largely driven by the wolves to see how much they could get away with.

Considering how wide the margin was in favor of Legate, I can even see all four wolves voting him. I mean, Nilp and I were the only ones who didn't, and I'm having a hard time seeing a wolf in him.

It is actually highly possible that one of the non-Legate voters is a wolf because they would know Legate was innocent and want to be able to claim innocence later.

Originally Posted by McCaber

Well, I'm here, but I don't know for how long. Man, this is just not working with my schedule so far.

I am glad that Nogrod seems innocent, and no one is considering lynching him just because of the one kill. One thing that comes to mind is that the pack must want to draw the game out, rather than use the two kills to achieve a faster victory. Maybe it speaks of (over)confident wolves, or maybe of submarines who blend into the background.

And I will say that I still think The Plan was a bad idea. A revealed Seer is vulnerable, and we would have no real way of testing the veracity of such a claim.

EDIT: crossed with Brinn

I’m not really sure why he brought up The Plan again. This was Day Three and it hadn’t been talked about in a while… really random.

Originally Posted by McCaber

So it seems that the modfire+no kill was a one-time thing. Ah well.

Hakon is doing his level best to appear suspicious, while Pitchwife is doing the exact opposite. He's taking actions which look suspicious, but he explains himself well and seems genuine. I know, a rather simple analysis, but it works for me.

I am wary of joining the Hakon wagon, just because his actions scream "cobbler" or "confused" much more than wolf. Although, a wolf hiding in plain sight like that is possible, it's just not the read I'm getting.

Even after this analysis I’m still confused by McCaber. He bears close watching though.

[Pitchwife]

Nog, direct answer to your direct question:
1. The Plan
When I first heard our Mayor set forth the special rules about the NG, I more or less had the same idea Mnemo suggested. As we didn't know our roles at that time, I considered how I, in case I was made a wolf, would like to deal with something like The Plan, if it came up. I thought it would be quite plain to see that such a plan, if followed through, would be in the best interest of the village, and arguing against it would be a) difficult and b) likely to cause suspicion. So what should the wolves, according to my reasoning, do? Hardly bring the suggestion up themselves, but support it when it came up, and then find a way to circumvene it.
So, assuming the actual wolves were thinking remotely like I was thinking as a hypothetical wolf, it would make sense to look for them among the supporters of The Plan, wouldn't it? (Not Mnemo herself, of course, but at least some of those who argued for her. And remember, I was among those, so I was actually inviting people to have a close look at me.)
2. The Legwagon / Zil voters
I was about to say the reasoning is all in the post you quoted from, but looking back now I realize there's actually an appalling fault in my reasoning there. Quoting myself:

If there is a wolf among the Zil voters, Lommy's death would make them look better. On the other hand, if Zil is a wolf, what would the pack accomplish by confirming one of his voters as innocent?

The answer to the question is actually in the sentence before it. If Zil was a wolf (as we now know he was), and one of his packmates voted for him, then Lommy's death (=confirmed innocence) would make that packmate look better for voting with her. How I failed to realize that at the time, I can't tell. If I had, I wouldn't have been quite so confident in my Inzil frame theory.
But the short answer to your question is: yes, in both cases I said what I said because I really thought so myself at the time.

EDIT: x-ed with Nog's last.

[Nogrod]

Pitchie, I do agree with your questions to McCaber, not the least as I still think some of us haven't made those deductions as yet...

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

Nogrod - the main thing I found somewhat suspicious about you earlier was that during most of the game up to now, I got the impression you had been replaced with some HongKong imitation - looking almost like the original, but cheaper to produce and just not quite as good as the genuine article.

Heh, time-deprivation... Hope I can get you all to suspect me in the last one and half hours if that makes you feel more comfy...

Anyway, I'm not going to restrain from voicing doubts toDay.

[Nogrod]

Pitchie, could you just tell us why did you think guarding Shasta would be a good idea yesterDay? I mean more than "just for a change"?

[Nogrod]

To get this done early enough even in a provisional form (subject to changes as I have time to read on), so just a feeling of it right now...

Greenie - I'm just scared... She's too careful and good in this.
Boro - As I've said earlier, I'm a bit in doubt about his kind of soft suspicions which look like probing around but if they are time-issues I could understand them.
Brinn - The enigmatic ever innocent even when a wolf. I suspected her on the first Days and now am torn - the option of Kit being killed because she voted for her "out of the blue" kind of bothers me though... We'd need to cross-index a few things I think... Also I don't believe Brinn honestly believes in Shasta's "psychic powers" so her vote to guard him looks dubious indeed as the wolves would love to guard a non-participator.
Hakon - looks the foulest but I'm not sure if he feels like it. His last apology looked genuine...
McCaber - I could vote him but I'm afraid that an evil McCaber would have been more active...
Nerwen - Looks very good so far even if I suspected her as well on the first Days (and especially the fact that everyone trusted her) - so have I fallen victim to her charms or am I right?
Nessa - Facing modfire so let's skip her.
Nienna - Feels better than foul.
Nilp - Torn with him, really. Makes good points and is very active... well normally (being innocent) he is quite flegmatic, so?
Pitchwife - Very sensible but just because of that suspicious. So on top of things that it hurts sometimes But really an innocent we shouldn't lose - and a wolf we should get rid of immediately until further harm is done...
Sally - Has gotten better lately but has also been suspected more lately as well - so that's natural. Her end of the Day actions look really suspicious (just sitting back and relaxing on one Day posting tallies, voting for Shasta-guard at the last moment to tie the guards for the dice-roll yesterDay etc.).
Shasta - Probably innocent as it looks he couldn't care less... Well bad if one joins a game with that attitude but anyway he's in this game and we need to work with that fact.
wilwa - A tough call. Really good - and thence frightening.

[Brinniel]

Suspects...

Hakon is either a misguided innocent or a newbie wolf. As to which, it's still a toss-up for me. For that reason I'm not all too eager to be joining this bandwagon against him.

McCaber has been gathering some attention of late, and as I recall from Day 2, he did look a bit furry. When it came to sharing opinions on the whole Legate matter, he seemed very careful and retrained in his words like he didn't want to give too strong of an opinion one way or another.

Sally's behaviour creeped me out a bit on Day 1 and Day 2. But that creepiness has sort of faded, and lately I have been feeling a bit better about her.

I find Pitchwife's posts from the end of the Day a bit suspicious, but I'm still not sure about him.

I still think wilwa's behaviour on Day 2 was quite suspicious and I find it strange that a lot of attention and suspicion on her has been dropped recently. That alone makes me nervous as I remember that is how the wolves won last game.

Boromir keeps slipping under my radar and I can't figure out why that is.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Hakon

I just got on and had time to read most of the posts but I only skimmed this last page here. So far I only have gut feelings about two people. Those people are Legate and Boro. My gut feeling with Legate is just that something is off and it is bothering me. My gut feeling about Boro is that he is an innocent.

++Boro

[h]++Legate[/h]

Votes on gut, which on a first Day is hardly a crime.

Originally Posted by Hakon

Either my gut feeling about Legate being a wolf was right or the wolves are trying to trick us. I hope it is that Legate is just a wolf.

Really says nothing, other than that he wants to be right.

Originally Posted by Hakon

Speaking of me I am here now. What is bothering me a whole is the fact that you all keep arguing over whether we lynch Legate or not. The way I see it no matter what people say Legate is most likely going to end up lynched. Who else are you going to lynch? There are some other people who come off as suspicious enough to lynch but most of you are not going to pass off an opportunity to lynch a possible wolf. From what I can tell Legate will deny being a wolf up until he is lynched even if he is one. Well I know he did that in one game when the seer accused him of being a wolf. Legate denied being a wolf even when it was clear that he was a wolf and going to be lynched. The game I am talking about is Lommy's game with the four Nazgul instead of wolves. Oh and on a side note, thank you Pitchwife for recommending I read that when I was dead last game. Overall my point is that most likely Legate is going to end up lynched whoever is the next best wolf suspect will probably end up guarded.

EDIT: Fixed a typo that Sally pointed out.

I already commented on this (see my post 277 for reaction) but basically this just sounds horrible. "Legate's going to be lynched, so you all are just ignoring other people who look wolfish?" I really can't explain it other than I already did, but to me it just seems....heck if I know, just wrong.

Originally Posted by Hakon

Eönwë said that if it was a ranger save it would be clear in the narration.

The above quote was Eönwë's answer to the question of weather it would be made clear that it was a ranger save or not.

Also, just stating the obvious again.

Originally Posted by Hakon

I have to go now. I will be back by deadline. Before I go I want to put in my lynch vote.

++Legate

I also want to say that I think Alona is lurking. I have nothing to back up this thought or anything that makes it seem true. It is just something that I thought of and I think that is the case. My guess is she will pop up before deadline and make her vote.

Pitchwife, you suggest guarding Legate again and to me it makes it sound like you want him to live. If Legate turns out to be a wolf it suggests that you are also a wolf.

After all of this "why don't you look at someone else?" business he votes Legate anyway? This makes the above point look even worse. Also accuses Alona of lurking, which seems very random to me. His point to Pitch is irrelevant because we couldn't guard Legate again anyway, but it still looks a bit weird. If Pitch wanted to guard Legate that would suggest that they aren't wolves together, because a wolf wouldn't want their packmate guarded. (Which is to say that he might bring up a case for a Legate guard but he wouldn't really want one, if that makes sense. Pitch pulling a bluff would make Hakon's post make sense but he wouldn't really want a Legate guard if he was a wolf.) Basically flawed logic, which isn't punishable by death but looks fishy, or rather wolfy, to me.

Originally Posted by Hakon

Time for my guard vote.

++Nogrod

I am voting him for the same reason as Cab and Inzil.

Erm, okay. Cabbie didn't have a reason and Dun was a wolf, so logic dictates....

Originally Posted by Hakon

Well now we know the wolves are killing one a night. I kind of feel like this is partially Legate's fault that they have done it again. I feel this way since yesterday when defending himself he outlined how if the wolves killed one a night they could escape lynching more easily.

One thing I would like to state is that we need to look at the Legate voters. There has to be at least one wolf amongst them. My guess is that the wolf is one of the earlier voters rather than the ones who voted Legate closer to deadline. I think that if there is one wolf amongst the voters this is the case but if there are more than one then this is probably not the case for all of them.

Another thing is the wolves probably expect us to lynch Nogrod today. I think we should try to avoid doing that.

Yeah, because the wolves wouldn't have thought of it on their own anyway.

And yeah, there had to be at least one among them, considering only two of the living players didn't vote him. This is, again, logicless logic.

Agree with his point about Nog though, although most of us were.

Originally Posted by Hakon

I bet it has to do with the fact that Lommie was one of the only people to not vote for Legate. Inziladun, she did vote for you. Maybe you are a wolf and are worried because she was on to you so you convinced your fellow wolves to support killing her.

With looking at Legate voters we should definitely look at some of the ones who voted earlier in the day. I think there is a large chance that some wolf just wanted to get their vote out of the way and they knew they would be voting for Legate.

I agree with you Nogrod that we should look at the Inziladun voters.

One thing we also need to think about is part of the safety the wolves gain from killing one a night. Because we know that at least once the wolves have chosen to kill one a night we expect it to always have been their choice. It could happen that we end up guarding a wolf and we just assume that they chose to have one kill that night. It could mean a wolf not getting lynched.

Accuses Dun of wolfdom, saying that it's a possible reason for Lommie being Finnished. Repeats what he said before about vote times/positions being important. The problem with his logic is that some ordos may have used the same logic, knowing that they weren't going to change their mind because they were so sure he was guilty.

Then he says that he wants to look at people who voted Dun! Right after saying Dun is probably a wolf! The inconsistencies, they abound!

More commentary on the one kill a Night thing.

Originally Posted by Hakon

I am going to start off this post by saying do not lynch Inziladun. I think the wolves set up last night so we either lynch Nogrod or Inziladun. Out of the four Inziladun voters, only two are alive. So far we have assumed they are innocent. The wolves expected us to make that assumption. They want us to lynch Inziladun. It is clear that both he and Nogrod are the prime lynch targets today. We should lynch neither of them.

One person I am somewhat suspicious of is Pitchwife. The reason is because he does not come off even the slightest bit suspicious in this game. In past games he has always been a gifted and has come off somewhat suspicious. I think it is obvious that he is either a wolf or an innocent.

"So I know I just said Dun's probably a wolf but don't kill him." Erm, okay? Awk. Freaking. Ward.

Originally Posted by Hakon

I know. In the part of my post that you quoted I was simply stating the obvious.

I thought about it some more and I think Pitchwife is innocent. So far he has only had the role of gifteds so it is logical that he would given the role of an innocent this time. He also is coming off as innocent in this game whereas when he has had the role of a gifted he has not come off as innocent.

++Pitchwife

People, do not vote Inziladun. As I have said earlier the wolves want this. Do not vote for him. The wolves have set it up so we either end up lynching Inziladun today or the guard from last night which is Nogrod. We should not lynch either of them.

Flips completely re: Pitchie, and decides to guard him instead. Reiterates his plea to not lynch Dun (again, wtmc?) and says that the wolves want us to lynch Noggie or Dun. (To which I reply, heh, right.)

Originally Posted by Hakon

I have been saying almost all day that he was set up by the wolves to be lynched today. Hopefully people will listen to you since they failed to listen to me when I said it. The wolves set up two lynching targets, Inziladun and Nogrod. For what seems like the billionth time we should not lynch either of them. So far it is clear that Nogrod is safe and it seems that Inziladun is going to be lynched. Pitchwife, I also plan not to be part of the wagon this time.

Again, despite his earlier accusation that Dun headed the Night kill of Lommie, he urges us not to lynch him, and he seems to be getting pretty desperate.

Originally Posted by Hakon

++Nienna

Something about her is off. Sadly this is a gut feeling and I am going to get hell for it especially if Inziladun turns out guilty. Still something is off about Nienna.

Pretty much a throwaway for Nienna. Wow....just, wow.

Originally Posted by Hakon

It is not just unfair to them. It is boring. Knowing who will die takes away the excitement from the game.

I feel like there is a giant target on my back today, even though none of you are coming after me. I regret defending Inziladun yesterday. I really thought he was innocent.

My number one suspect right now is Nerwen. She was the second to vote for Inziladun and the first to vote for Kit and Legate. Almost like she knew Legate was innocent and knew we would go after him. She just chose to get her vote out of the way early. Same thing with Kit. With Inziladun it seems like she was ready to turn on her fellow wolf just to escape suspicion herself. She probably realized that it would be a bandwagon for Inziladun, so she just got her vote out of the way.

I am also suspicious of Sally and Wilwa. Wilwa just because she was involved in all three bandwagons and Sally in the first two but she did not vote yesterday. If she had time to make that quick post where she made her guard vote, I would think that she had time to add a quick lynch vote as well. Almost like she wanted to escape condemning a fellow wolf. I think she voted Shasta because she was worried that her possible fellow wolf Nerwen might be guarded. At the time when Sally voted, Nerwen and Pitch both had three votes and Shasta had two votes. By making it a three way tie Sally had made it a little bit harder for Nerwen to get guarded.

One thing I want to add, is that I do not get why three people voted for Shasta yesterday. He has not been around at all and it was unlikely that he would get killed the next night. It seems like a throwaway vote, the same really as voting for yourself.

First, his 'case' against me. I already stated that I didn't have time to check votes, and you can hardly expect me to make a lynch vote without reading. And to add more water to your fire if I wanted to save Nerwen from a guard I'd have voted Pitch. Wouldn't that make more sense? (Besides, at that point it didn't matter because Dun was done and the wolves could only have gotten one kill anyway.)

Really, nothing he said in this post made sense, or if it did it had no merit to it. Seems like a lot of backtracking and trying to pin things on other people. (Although I won't completely disregard his claims about Wilwa.)

Originally Posted by Hakon

I hate having to defend myself, but I will.

Lets start it off with a simple phrase. I am not a wolf. Yes I did run on gut feelings day one because I was busy and I did not have time to read the posts when I got home. I just wanted to make deadline. I think that sometimes gut feelings can be good. Day two I truly thought Legate was a wolf, as did most of us. I was wrong in suspecting that. Yesterday I was wrong in thinking Inziladun was innocent but it seemed like the wolves had set him up. Nerwen, you are too good at starting bandwagons. You make one vote for me and it is enough to get a second vote for me, which is soon going to turn into a bandwagon. Yes today my arguments against people were hasty as some of you pointed out. Truthfully I just wanted to point my suspicions at someone and I did. I was in a hurry so I did not do my best to explain them. I apologize for that.

McCaber, there are no cobblers in this game. I am not a cobbler. I am not trying to appear suspicious. Although that idea is good. McCaber, I think you are under the radar too much. That is my sole reason for being suspicious of you.

I'm not even going to bother with this one. Apologizing is a very ordo thing to do but it seems too fake to me.


Hakon is evil in my book. That be all.

[Eönwë]

Deadline. Stop posting.

Shasta will be modfired in the Night.

[Eönwë]

Even though another villager had been lost in the night, the people of Upper Downsbury were still happy after killing their first wolf, as this meant that they would only have to suffer one kill per night.

The villagers tried to recall if Inziladun had done anything to implicate anyone else, but there was very little to go on. He had been a very careful wolf.

Today it was decided that there would be a stoning. Many names were thrown about, but it soon became clear that Hakon would be the next to die at the hands of the village.

Someone thought it would be a clever idea to drown Hakon in his own beer.

"There will be plenty of time for such deeds. There are many more days ahead of us." said Eönwë. At this, Hakon looked horrified. "The village wanted a stoning, and they shall one."

As Hakon was grabbed by Sally and Nienna and dragged towards the outskirts of the village, he shouted, "Kill Wilwarin instead! She's the evil one."

"How do we know that?" said Nogrod. "Why should we trust you?"

And so everyone ignored his protests.

Nerwen cast the first stone. It missed Hakon, but acted as an invitation, and soon the rest of the village started picking up stones and throwing them at him.

They started with smaller stones at first, but soon they got larger and heavier, and started doing more damage.

Eventually, a lifeless Hakon fell to the floor, bruised all over.

The villagers watched expectantly at his body, willing it to change, but nothing happened. They had once again killed a fellow innocent villager. Their spirits lowered, and a new wave of desperation appeared among the members of the village.

And so, for the fifth night, the Night Guard took up their places, this time outside Nienna's house, for the night.

Eönwë had really hoped that they would start catching more wolves, but seemed to him that though the wolves would only kill one of them each night, it would still be a struggle for mastership of the village.


Living:
A Little Green- the village butcher
Boromir88- the village pig farmer
Brinniel- the village witch
McCaber- chief (only) miner, head of miners' guild
Nerwen- a wandering minstrel
Nessa Telrunya- the village seamstress
Nienna- the village potter
Nilpaurion Felagund- the village fool
Nogrod- the retired bourgeois
Pitchwife- the village mason
satansaloser2005- The village librarian (Mistress of the books)
Shastanis Althreduin- the village apothecary
wilwarin538- the village barmaid

The Dead
Kitanna- the village hermit - Seer
Mnemosyne- the village coquette - Innocent
Legate of Amon Lanc- the village broker - Innocent
Thinlómien- the village chief gardener - Innocent
Inziladun- the village brewer - Wolf
alonariel- the village blacksmith - Innocent (modfired)
Hakon- the village innkeeper - Innocent