WW LXXIX: Fall From Olympus

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by the phantom

And if I read the narration correctly, Hestia the Mytho is now a Seer.

Of course, if our remaining Seer (Apollo) happens to be false, so is Hestia, unless I've got things badly wrong. However, looks like Boro was the false one, anyway.

Originally Posted by the phantom

And then this morning our Mod actually told us which Ranger it was that had the successful protection, meaning that we essentially have a Seer dream in our pocket (Eros knows that person is innocent).

Regarding which:

Originally Posted by Narration

Apparently, four figures were approaching the room of one of the Gods (who's he could not guess) as he was patrolling the halls.

Eros must know who he protected, so what (the Hades!) does this mean?

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Eros must know who he protected, so what (the Hades!) does this mean?

I believe it's just a narrational thing - Glirdanmod didn't want to reveal the protected one's identity in the narration, so he wrote it like that. (Because any logic would say that Eros knows who he protected!)

Anyway, I have some comments on yesterDay, and will analyse one of the baffling guys who escape the general attention ie. Inzil, Nienna, Shasta, Sally or Lalaith (any preferences?) I'll do all that in some hours, as I have some important (and confusing!) paperwork to do. Just popped in to check what happened during the Night.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Eros must know who he protected, so what (the Hades!) does this mean?

Maybe that's just poetic licence? Otherwise it's hard to see what it means.

Heh, the phantom, the official optimist!

Though to remind us of the truth from the opposite perspective: we have all four wolves left + one cursed, and we haven't been nowhere near lynching even one. Yeah, we've only got two band-wagons on innocents. You others cannot know this, to be sure, and I'm not supposing you will take my word for it - but as I'm going to be posting quite scantily the next few Days (if alive anyway), I'd like to remind you about it. It has some relevance when you try to look at how the wolves might have acted. But I'll come to that a bit later.

[Loslote]

Okay, so I decided to analyze Tum. I'm trying something where, if I can find someone else saying the same thing a few posts ago, I post that, too.

Note: After being informed that I had 27 images in my post, I just disabled smilies. Too much bother to try to go through and get rid of them. >.<

Originally Posted by autume98

If you find a purpose for day one other than what you mentioned you will have to share.

So far I got a whole lot of nothing.

She said this after quoting Foley:

Originally Posted by Folwren

Good glory, is there any purpose to this first day at all, besides bantering, teasing, and otherwise killing time?

And basically agreeing with her.

Originally Posted by autume98

That's true. Didn't think about that. At the time though it is quite confusing. :p

Edit: x-ed with Sally

She then quotes Nerwen:

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Seriously, Fowlren, Day Ones are generally useful for analysis later on, if nothing else.

Also, with so many weird roles, things could get interesting even this early on.

And agrees with her.

Originally Posted by autume98

I second this! There has been some good discussion, but it also seem like there has been some dragged on discussion regarding the lovers.

I don't think the Seers should reveal. Obviously they should give some hints, confuse some wolves, and hopefully help out the town while they are at it.

I think I skipped over the Zeus comments so I'll have to go back and see if there is anything there.

She then quotes Nog:

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Okay let's get into the bussiness of trying to tie the Day up for now - from my part that is.

And agrees with him. She also mentions an opinion on a widely-talked about topic and says she didn't catch the Boro-Zeus controversy.

Originally Posted by autume98

I think it'd be good for Eonwe to comment on this. I personally am leaning towards him being innocent at this point. However am going to be keeping my eye on him.

She then quotes Zil:

Originally Posted by Inziladun

But if he's turned he can't be good. And if that was indeed a hint, he had to have known the wolves could pick up on it as easily as innocents.

And says she needs to keep an eye on him, but wants him to comment.

I'm glad I'm not the only one who got confused! :cool: And a cheat sheet chart sounds like a really good idea. I think I might have to make myself one too. :smokin:

She then quotes Mira (in the same post):

Originally Posted by Keeper of Dol Guldur

Okay so three pages later, I'm pretty thoroughly confused (but what else is new) soo as per usual I'm just going to start talking.

I really don't see Boro's Zeus comment and Nerwen's Hades one as slips or hints of any kind. It's Day 1 of a Greek god themed game. There is nothing suspicious about working in banter, especially in the first few posts (which I think those were).

And now I shall go make myself a stupidly detailed cheatsheet chart of all the roles because that's what's been confusing me the most. I shall return!

And agrees with her about being confused.

Originally Posted by autume98

I was going to post the same thing. I'm so glad I made the list cause it made all this Zeus talk even more interesting. Is it just something to stir up the pot and add confusion?

Edit: xed with Lottie

She then quotes Mira:

Originally Posted by Keeper of Dol Guldur

I might be missing something here, but don't Zeus and Hera know who each other are? If that's the case then there's no reason for Borolover to be hinting to his counterpart.

And says she was going to post the same thing.

Originally Posted by autume98

Looks like so far I don't have much as far as suspicions. The people that have hit my radar so far toDay are:

Boro - There was all the Zeus talk around him. However he generally confuses me so it probably means nothing.

Lottie - That might just because I'm on her radar so it probably is just a knee-jerk reaction to that. However she's also is on Nog's radar and I tend to trust Nog.

Mac - I'm not sure about him. I really can't put my finger on it, but it also might be that once again I'm on his radar so it probably means nothing.

Eonwe - I'd like to know more about this statement:


Everyone else seems to be ok or hasn't said a lot so really don't have much to go on.

On another note I talked to Sally and she said she's having internet that seems to be working sporadically.

Edit: xed up to post 172

Her suspicions are two of the people most people talked about and the two people who talked about her.

Originally Posted by autume98

So this post got me thinking. Could this just be a hint that he's a lover? Maybe, maybe not. Which got me thinking more how all this talk about lovers would be a perfect opportunity for someone to slip in a hint to their lover.



So now I'm not the only one who has suspicions of Mac. I really am beginning to wonder if some hints are going on. Granted it would seem to be pretty obvious that he's giving a hint to a fellow lover if that's what he were doing. Anyone have any thoughts?

Edit: x-ed with Rikae, wilwa, and Nog

She quotes Mac:

Originally Posted by Macalaure

Hephaistos, not Ares. In my opinion, though it's frustrating to be alone with it, he used the reference to Zeus simply to say "I am a lover". Since we only have three, that's not a bad hint.

And suggests that he might have been hinting as a lover. Actually, I think she was the first to come up with this theory, which looks much better for her.

Originally Posted by autume98

I was throwing that out as a possibility. I thought it might be a little too obvious on Mac's part which is why I asked for other's opinions. ;)

I didn't realize I had dismissed the idea the that Boro was hinting. I didn't really comment on it if that's what you mean. :confused: Since it's been brought up though I could see that yes it could be a hint coming from Boro. Yet I'm not convinced at all. I am pretty much on the fence with this one.

I have also been going through the posts to see if there are any hints that the lovers have thrown out. So far I haven't come across anything that stands out.

Edit: x-ed with wilwa, Nog, and Rikae

She quotes Rikae:

Originally Posted by Rikae

Tum, are you saying that Mac's suspicion of Boro being a lover is a hint that Mac is a lover?

Although there's something to the idea that people tend to talk about their own roles more than might be wise, I think that's a little bit of a reach, especially considering that you dismiss the idea that Boro's hinting - which, though I don't really buy it, is more plausible than that Mac is.

And backs away from her theory a little bit, but sticks with it - I must admit, this is a good sign.

Originally Posted by autume98

At this time I don't think the others are lovers. Mac's last line just jumped out at me making me think that maybe he was trying to hint that he is a lover as seen below.



Edit: x-ed since #206
I guess I didn't see it as dismissing it. But I addressed it in an earlier post so I won't do so here.

At this time Mac is most suspicous in my book.

Quotes Rikae:

Originally Posted by Rikae

Too obvious? No, I don't think so. Quite the opposite. Unless you mean something more specific than just the fact that Mac talked about Boro's potential hint (which Wilwa, Nerwen, Phantom, Nogrod, etc. etc. talked about before Mac, for that matter - are they all lovers, too?)


Well, saying that calling it a lover hint amounts to making a lover hint oneself is essentially dismissing it, unless you imagine that a lover-Mac would try to hint by outing what would essentially be an ally for possible lynching.

And takes what I think was a joke and makes it serious. She also labels Mac as her top suspect.

Originally Posted by autume98

I am definitely with you on this one. I also know that we definitely see each other as enemies right now. As much as I have my suspicions about you I'm not sure I'm willing to vote for you just yet. Maybe it's because I feel the same way about the BG votes. It'd be an easy lynch and I don't agree with that.

Edit: x-ed with BG, Rikae, and Nerwen

Quotes Mac:

Originally Posted by Macalaure

Raise your hand if you'd like to lynch somebody suspicious instead of BG.

Yes, she might not be very helpful, but that's not a good reason to lynch and you know that. :rolleyes:

And agrees. She says that not only is he her top suspect, but that she doesn't want to vote for him.

Originally Posted by autume98

It was this line:


Edit: Changed coding

Quotes Rikae about Mac:

Originally Posted by Rikae

Hm, so Tum, do you mean the "it's frustrating to be alone with it" bit or the "I am a lover" bit? Or something else?




Silly. I always defend you - even when we're not on the same side. You know that. :Merisu:

And explains herself - in a very confusing manner, I must sau...

Originally Posted by autume98

I know there are rules about editing posts. So quick question, anyone here know if I can fix the quote since it shows: [quote ] [ /quote] I can't believe I forgot to preview my post before I hit Submit Reply. :rolleyes:

Thanks in advance!

Mentions coding difficulties. No problems there.

Originally Posted by autume98

As I was looking at my list I am wondering about wilwa and her post for BG.

I am also not sure about Boro. He sure did stir up the pot, but I'm not sure that he's a wolf.

Looking at my list of players no one is jumping out at me screaming wolf. I'm wondering if they are one of the quiet ones.

You mentioned Zil. Is there something that makes you suspect him or you just suspect him on principle?

Edit: x-ed with up to #231

Mentions that Wilwa's BeiGei vote made her wonder, and agrees about Zil.

Originally Posted by autume98

I want to touch on a few of the items you mentioned. For the most part I agree with your innocent list. I say most part instead of all because I'm not in your innocent list. ;)

I know I've played with Nienna but can't seem to remember how she plays. However as you pointed out she's a BG voter. I think some of the people who have voted for BG have been throwing their votes away.

Not sure what you meant by this: Greenie (the nagging Persephone-suspicion persists since it fits so well)

I think you make a good point about Keeper. Maybe something to look at.

As you pointed out Inzil is a BG voter.

And I wanted to touch on Nerwen. To me her comment seemed innocent, and I didn't see her defending herself as being tense.

Edit: x-ed with up to post #237

Quotes Mac:

Originally Posted by Macalaure

6 pages on Day1... and there's still two hours to go... I needs me a list.

Probably innocent
Rikae (argumentative plus defending me when I'm misunderstood, that's innocent-Rikae)

Fine with me
Kath (hasn't said much, but what she said I liked - defending me is the way to my heart ;) )
Folwren (couldn't say anything bad about her)
Lalaith (simply no alarms)

Fine with me at the moment, but still wary
Wilwa (talks about roles too much, but since she helped planning, that's ok for now. Don't like her vote, though... really bad)
Nogrod (went on about Eonwe too much and followed Greenie with her suspicions of me, but otherwise fine, especially his vote)
Phantom (nothing bad to report yet, but you never know with him)

No clear opinion, but no alarms
BG (really don't get those votes, she's being herself perfectly)
Eonwe (I don't buy the cursed theory. If he is the cursed, he's aligned with good at this point and should behave that way. I don't think he would bend the rules like that)
Shasta
Sally

Somewhat suspicious
Lottie (vague bad feeling again)
Nienna (had a bad feeling about all her posts so far. Also: BG-voter)
Greenie (the nagging Persephone-suspicion persists since it fits so well)
Keepandir (just the vote. Annoyance might be cover for convenience)

High on my list, but not an aim toDay
Boro (I still think he made a hint, but I'll let it rest for now - don't come complaining to me when you feel his or his lover's fangs in your neck)

Baddie, baddie, bad, bad
Inzil (vague bad feeling from the beginning on; don't like the way he went after me; BG-voter)
Nerwen (I would have given her the benefit of the doubt with the hint-thing, but her behaviour around it now is suspicious. She dismissed it very casually and went after me instead, and now that Nogrod addressed it, she seemed very tense)
Autume (passive, going along with the crowd / after easy victims -type feeling, which, to her defense, is not out of character for her)

And agrees with him about three fifths of the comments she quoted.

Originally Posted by autume98

Now that just put a BIG smile on my face! :D In a strange way that really does make sense.



I hear you Nog! I keep thinking that I really do need to vote soon, but then this is just sooo interesting that I'm not ready to put my laptop away and call it a night. Not to mention I really need to look at who I want to vote for. Yet at this time I don't see any unity on the votes other than the ones for BG.

Quotes Mac and Nog:

Originally Posted by Macalaure

Autume: this might irk you now - or a few others - but I'll vote Nerwen. I suspect her, and you don't mention her. Since I don't really trust you, that makes perfect sense to me. ;)

[*highlight]++Nerwen[/highlight]

Says this makes sense and made her smile.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I seem to be trapped in a vicious circle... going to have a cigarette, going to brush my teeth... while leaving the computer on and just looking after every thing done if there is anything that is interesting... and of course there is... Gah!

Agrees fervently about being tired.

Originally Posted by autume98

Thought I'd share the vote count:

Foley -> Eonwe
Greenie -> Mac
Kath -> BG
Lalaith -> Boro
Inzil -> BG (2)
Nienna -> Eonwe (2)
Sally -> BG (3)
Nogrod -> Nerwen
Wilwa -> BG (4)
Keeper -> BG (5)
Rikae -> phantom
Mac -> Nerwen (2)
BG -> Inzil

I did notice that Keeper didn't give a reason.

Shares the vote count and throws out a potentially bad note about Mira.

Originally Posted by autume98

With that the vote for Inzil is up in the air. So my list may or may not include Inzil.

Edit: x-ed with Mod and Shasta

Quotes TP about her vote tally:

Originally Posted by the phantom

All right- I've skimmed everything now at least. Two things-

1) Does anyone have an updated tally?

2) Does BG's vote count (it doesn't have ++)?

edit: x-posted, so never mind the tally

And seconds his question about BeiGei's vote.

Originally Posted by autume98

I think we should keep Eonwe around. If he turns then we can always lynch him the next day. Right?

Wants to keep Steve around. I didn't find a nearby relevant quote, but I do know that Nog and I (at least!) said this earlier.

Originally Posted by autume98

It seems as though one of the people I see as innocent is going to get lynched toDay. Out of the three with the most votes I see all of them as innocent. It doesn't seem right to vote for any of them.

The one I feel least inclined to vote for is Eonwe. Not sure who to vote for between BG and Nerwen. However if it came to where I had to save Eonwe I think I'd have to vote for BG. Sorry BG. :(

Protects Steve. As Steve was more innocent than BeiGei, this looks better than not.

Originally Posted by autume98

So after making that post I think it's time for me to vote and go to bed.

[*highlight]++BG[/highlight]

Edit: x-ed with Nog and BG

Votes BeiGei. While I don't have a (huge) problem with her voting to protect Steve (I do still think it's weird, but...), I do have a problem with her "suspicion" of Mac without any actual attempts to lynch him to back it up.

Originally Posted by autume98

I haven't gone through all the thread yet, but I do want to post my reasoning for the reason I voted BG yesterday since I've noticed a few concerns.

The reason I didn't vote for Mac yesterday is simply because I wanted to keep Eonwe around for a little bit longer. At the time Eonwe was also being looked at being lynched. At the time specualation was that he may be Dionysis, and I wasn't ready to lynch him yesterDay. I felt like we should keep him around and in order to do that I had to vote for BG. If I would've had enough people on my side I would've voted for Mac.

Here she says that she protected him because she thought he was Dionysis. She gives her reason for not voting Mac because she wanted to protect Steve.

Originally Posted by autume98

Just want to make sure everyone saw my post. I noticed a couple of people had missed it. Look here to see my post explaining my vote.

Reminds people about her post.

Originally Posted by autume98

It looks like she did give a hint here:



Not sure if anyone picked up on the hint. I'll will have to go back and see.

Quotes Nerwen:

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Well, I hope so.:rolleyes:

Here's something to talk about, which I raised earlier: Blind Guardian did, I think, drop a hint about her role. I never picked it up until after she died, but it's possible Hephaestus was looking a bit harder.

It may be worth seeing if anyone seemed to be particularly protective of her. (Or to be hinting back, perhaps– though look where searching for hints has got us...)

And brings up the same basic point.

Originally Posted by autume98

So apparently I'm a little confused. I know shocker! :eek: I thought for some reason the Aphrodite had to do with wine. I looked it up and it has to do with Love and Beauty. So please ignore the above post. :rolleyes:

Edit: x-ed with tp and wilwa

Originally Posted by autume98

So after going over BG's posts again, this time looking for something to do with love and beauty. I came up with nothing. I don't see one iota of a hint that she tried to give her partner Hephaestus.

Originally Posted by autume98

So she did. I think I just made a fool of myself. :o I did not see anyone who responded to it so it doesn't help us find her partner.

All three of these are confusion with BeiGei's possible hints.

Originally Posted by autume98

I've been sitting here and skimming through the posts seeing if something would catch my eye. I went through the BG votes and I didn't really see anything suspicious there. So I thought I'd take a look at the Eonwe voters. And of course the one that really struck me was the vote from Boro.

I am interested in finding out what Eonwe's role is. I also took another look at his posts from yesterday. He did bring up quite a bit of Greek mythology in his posts yesterday. Another question to ask: Would Eonwe be so blatant as to say "Wolf!" in his first post?

She claims that she saw nothing suspicious in the BeiGei voters, despite having wondered about Wilwa's vote earlier. She also swaps positions on Steve overNight.

Originally Posted by autume98

First: What do you mean by suspecting submarines? I haven't heard this term before. :confused:



Well Mac wanted to actually go for a wolf. I was cool with that. We weren't getting anywhere by suspecting each other. So I left him alone. Besides I knew at this point there was no way I'd be able to lynch him.

Yes Eonwe only had 4 votes and BG had 5. And if I voted for Eonwe then they both would've had 5. So by voting for BG I was doing what I could to keep Eonwe yesterDay as I wanted BG gone more than I wanted Eonwe gone. Does that make sense?

Asks for clarification of game terminology and makes her very confusing argument. I still have trouble matching up "My main suspect wanted to wolf hunt, so I left him alone" and "I didn't vote for anyone I found suspicious because I wanted to protect an innocent."

Originally Posted by autume98

Thanks for the explanation! :cool:



I wasn't just thinking about my vote. I was thinking about the way others were probably going to vote too. By the time I put my vote in it was down to BG and Eonwe. BG had 5 and Eonwe had 4. I think there were four votes left. Don't quote me on that though. ;) So I'm thinking that there are still some votes that are going to vote for BG and some for Eonwe. So my vote is now who do I want around more: BG or Eonwe. I decided that I wanted Eonwe to stick around for one more day instead of BG. I wasn't voting for 1 in 20. I was voting for one or the other.

As for voting for someone who was innocent, I thought both of them were innocent. Yet one of them was going to be lynched. There wasn't anything I could do to stop one of them from being lynched. So I chose between the one that I wanted to have stick around.

And I still didn't like people going after BG. I'll stand by that. However by the time I voted there was nothing I could do to stop it. Now if Eonwe turns out to be a wolf then I know that will look REALLY bad. So I'm really hoping that Eonwe is someone good. I can see why you think my vote looks bad. I'm not sure what else I can tell you since everything I've said is the truth. I'll do my best to try and clarify things, however sometimes it seems my logic doesn't match up with everyone else's logic. :p

Edit: x-ed with Mac, Sally, and tp

I've responded to this post before, and I still find it strange.

Originally Posted by autume98

It has absolutely nothing to do with wanting to save him so badly. I never said I wanted to save him really bad. I just wanted him here toDay more than my other choice. :cool:

So now I have to ask...why did you vote for BG? What made you suspect her so early on?

Now says that she didn't want to save him particularly badly. She also asks Zil for his reasoning behind his vote.

Originally Posted by autume98

I can see why you say that. The two I'd really like to hear about why they voted for BG are Wilwa and Mira. It doesn't look like I'll get an explanation from Wilwa tonight, and I'm not sure where Mira is.

No, it's not looking to good for Eonwe right now.

Is okay with Zil's vote now, but not so much with Wilwa's and Mira's - interesting, considering she'd said she found nothing suspicious with the BeiGei votes. She also quotes Zil:

Originally Posted by Inziladun

I didn't like the way she kept dropping by and saying nothing. It looked to me as if she was just trying to seem as if she was participating without sticking her neck out. The only other one on my radar was Mac, and as I said yesterDay I didn't want to vote him on Day 1, since I couldn't tell if it was a real suspicion I had or just the general uneasy feeling he always seems to give me.

And it's not looking as though Eönwê's going to be here toMorrow.

And agrees with both paragraphs of his post.

Originally Posted by autume98

Classic! Can I just say I really like your vote. :D

I can totally see why you did it though. No one has jumped out at me as a wolf.

Quote Rikae:

Originally Posted by Rikae

Nope, don't really buy the theory that Autume's a wolf.

Don't buy the theory that Mac's a wolf.

Definitely don't buy the theory that Steve is a wolf.

I, however, am the wolfiest wolf that ever howled at the moon, therefore:

[*highlight]++Rikae[/highlight]

Seriously, I really hope toMorrow we can focus a little attention into the dark corners of this village, instead of on the over-examined and probably innocent loudmouths - and I have a novel to finish, so tschüss.

And both praises her vote and agrees with her reasoning.

Originally Posted by autume98

Now that just cracked me up! :D

Quotes Mac:

Originally Posted by Macalaure

After those two votes, you probably deserve that, love. ;)

And is most amused by it.

Originally Posted by autume98

Maybe I haven't played with Nog enough yet. It seems as thought a few people have made comments about him acting strange. So I could be wrong about him.

As for Lottie, I haven't heard enough from her outside of her gunning for Mac and me. I think I'd like to know more about her reasoning and let her explain herself before I go after her.

Anyone else is pretty much fair game. I don't feel strongly about anyone at this point.

Edit: x-ed with both of tp's posts

Has no strong opinion on Nog, and strangely enough, no strong opinion on Mac either - and I don't think I saw her ever say she stopped suspecting him as her top suspect.

Originally Posted by autume98

Funny that you should mention Nienna. I had gone back through her posts earlier today and there wasn't much there. However that can be said of a few people at this time.

And I already covered thoughts about Lottie and Nog.

Edit: x-ed with Nerwen

Quotes TP:

Originally Posted by the phantom

Not anything strong. But there might be a couple I'd roll the dice on if you wanted to give them a try. One of the low-posters? Nienna maybe? I dunno. You said Lottie earlier- heck why not? And what do you think of Nog? Wait and see if he's right first, or push him to the brink?

(x-post Mac, who posted ANOTHER hint *makes note to guess Mac as Hades tonight*)

And pretty much agrees with him.

Originally Posted by autume98

I'd be willing to give Nienna a try too, and for some reason I'm not too keen on going after me either. :p

Edit: x-ed with Lottie

Quotes Mac:

Originally Posted by Macalaure

I'd rather give Nogrod the benefit of a good night's sleep. Nienna I'd be willing to try.

Nerwen mentioned Autume. I'm not so keen on that.

And agrees with him.

Originally Posted by autume98

Here's the post where I explain in more detail why I choose BG.

Edit: x-ed with Eonwe, tp, and Eonwe again

Responds to me with a link to her old post.

Originally Posted by autume98

By that time I was getting tired and wanted to go to bed and get some sleep. Yes I'm up later than I was yesterDay. However some nights I'm more tired than others. So I didn't stick around to see if someone else could get lynched.

edit: x-ed with tp, Mac, and tp

Finally mentions that she was going to bed, her most reasonable defense.

Originally Posted by autume98

I'd be willing to go for Nog.

Quotes Steve:

Originally Posted by Eönwë

How about Nog? And he's already got two votes...

edit: Forgot that DL was in half an hour *is relieved that he didn't miss vote*

And agrees, despite having no strong feelings about him before.

Originally Posted by autume98

And since I've got the time and you're here Nerwen. I know you have some concerns regarding me. So ask away and I'll answer your questions.

Asks for Nerwen to ask questions and she'll answer them.

Originally Posted by autume98

I mentioned it in my post when I voted for her.



Edit: x-ed with Rikae, Mod, and Rikae

Says that she mentioned her tiredness when she voted - which she did, in fact, do.

Originally Posted by autume98

I'm thankful for the more time we had toDay, and then this idea hits me. Why not lynch someone else, and have the Hunter go after Eonwe. If he dies than we know he's a wolf. The big flaw we'd have to pull this all of in nine minutes, and the Hunter would have to see this post. So basically a bad plan this late toDay.:rolleyes:

Edit: x-ed w/several

Has a plan to lynch the Hunter and thus determine Steve's alignment.

Originally Posted by autume98

Thanks for clearing that up Lottie. So another reason that's a bad idea.

I'm going to vote for:

[*highlight]++Nog[/highlight]

Edit: x-ed with Nerwen

Votes Nog - a good idea.

Originally Posted by autume98

I'll have to address this toMorrow if I'm around.

Says that she'll answer Nerwen toMorrow - conviently after she could potentially get tips from her packmates. I might be grasping a straws here, though. Here's Nerwen's quoted post:

Originally Posted by Nerwen

No new ground– just that you voted someone you believed innocent, when there was someone else you actually suspected. Now, toDay you explain this by saying it was clearly going to be either BG or Steve, and Steve was the one you wanted to save.

All right.

But you also seem more concerned about how you look than the rights or wrongs of the case:

Are you saying you're hoping Eonwe is lynched and turns out innocent? Because that's what it looks like you're saying.

And then, you seem to be latching on to everyone's suspicions.

EDIT:X'd with everybody. And now I'm running out of time again (slow internet!)

Tum, I would like to see you answer these.

~~~~~~

Originally Posted by Eönwë

NOOOOOOO!!! *Dies*

Now go and lynch Nogrod.

Words of wisdom from the mouths of mortals shall spring...

Pre-edit: I've xed since Nog's first post of the Day.

Real-edit: Whaaa? I didn't x? How utterly boring...

[Nogrod]

Ahh… so I tried to look at the votings yesterday evening as I knew Iwould be short on time this morning and like I said above, one thing emerges from there quite clearly – and it’s not going to ease our job. We have had two days with two major bandwagons in both – and all those wagonned have been innocents (you'll see the truth of this later, so bear with me for a while).

But what doest that mean? Well, basically the wolves have been able to sit back and relax in all idleness on both Days, without any risk one of them or their lover’s were at stake (only Nerwen got two votes outside the major wagons and actually was tied for a moment with the other to-be-real-wagoned, but it was immediately voted into a non-possibility – all the other votes outside the wagons have been singular!). Somehow what happened in the end of D2 also just looks soo like it.

Also it is unhelpful because so few did any real work trying to come up with suspicions of their own and most ran on the suspicions of others – as there were only a few talking points on both Days. So it has been relatively easy for the wolves to fit in with their votes just echoing others on the few who have been discussed (and I do carry the blame myself as well).

I think two situations merit some discussion though. That doesn’t mean the wolves are there and only there, but that those are the two situations that stick out from the other, possibly more carefully placed votes of which it’s just so much harder to say anything. And sure, voting-action isn’t the only place to look for wolves. I know.

So on D1, on a situation where BeiGei had 5 votes, Eonwë had 2 and Nerwen had just received the 2nd vote (with a few one voters), Shasta and Lottie give votes to Eonwë lifting him high up above Nerwen and practically make it a race between BeiGei and Eonwë, two known innocents.

Okay, if they (or one of them) were trying to help Nerwen out why didn’t they just vote for BeiGei? A good question, but then again, it might have been too suspicious a choice to go for such an overpowering wagon (and /or maybe their earlier comments didn’t allow them to - I don't have time to go through them at the moment, sorry).

Interestingly I have suspected all three already before noticing that… (which doesn't make it a better case, but I'd say worthwhile to remember)


Another one is the deal-making at the end of D2 where phantom and Mac (with the late confirmation of Nerwen) decided between me and Eonwë – while suggesting different candidates to each other and Lottie & Tum. I mean, yes I do appreciate your discussions of choice reasoning-wise – and heh, it’s nice to be alive anyway, so I also do appreciate your final decision. But there was something in the air of that discussion, in the relative ease in which different people were brought in and taken out of it, that makes me really feel like I should rethink one or some of you (remember, any wolves present in the end had no mates in trouble there, they were toying with innocents known to them to be innocents). Surely I do not think you all three are wolves, but it is most unlikely you all are innocent. Or then we really do have a “lay-low” lupine community who are not interested in hanging around there in the end.

And Lottie and Tum then? They were clearly not so happy with the alternatives but tried to get me lynched whatever the other possibilities? Hmm… Maybe the given alternatives included a wolf they (one of them) didn’t like at all? Also, it is easy to see why the wolves would have wanted me dead rather than Eonwë – now that they had a chance. Eonwë could be lynched later, or maybe he really was the cursed and they could turn him the next Night?

In general I’d suggest that as wrong as it was, it did look pretty plausible Eonwë was the cursed yesterday, so those trying to save him might have been those who thought he could be useful to them?


On another note. There are only two people who have systematically stayed out of both bandwagons, namely Greenie and Rikae. I need to give the benefit of doubt to Greenie as she has voted so early on both Days and Mac has seemed to be a possible candidate on both Days at that time (which doesn’t mean a smart wolf wouldn’t take her chances with the time-zone situation and laugh at it behind the scenes how easy it is), but Rikae has been around to the late hours and has still avoided the bandwagons on both Days (first with the only vote to the phantom and the other one with a self-vote). Does that look like trying to show an independent image? Well, clearly. But what’s the reason behind it?


A random point…

Inzil and Wilwa have been successfully attending the winning bandwagon on both Days, staying low but still adding to the wagons at more or less important points. Neat.

[Nogrod]

Hey Lottie. If you see the trouble going through someone's posts and re-posting them, you could add some analysis of your own - or points of your own. I mean what do you think of the person and her possible innocence / lupinity? Otherwise it's quite futile bussiness that doesn't exactly help that much.

[Nogrod]

I need to hit the road now. Will be back occasionally (hopefully) the next few Days.


We have been so far from getting a wolf thus far that some re-scanning might do us good.

Looking at the votings I do find Lottie involved in both cases I found worth noticing.

On D1, if there was an attempt to save Nerwen, then Lottie's vote is the one that looks more suspicious.

In the end of D2 she seemed more intrested in discussing with Tum than actually considering the voting. So she had her mind made and avoided taking too much a stance on the alternatives. But that's often the mistake the wolves make: when they are on safe-ground at the end of the Day they play casually and do not pay too much attention as to who gets lynched (if it's okay to them, whicever of the candidates dies). Innocents are always a bit worried there, and it mostly shows somewhere.

++ Lottie

It's not the best vote ever made, but I have a feeling it's not that bad either.

Hoping to get online in some near future... hopefully toMorrow, but at least on Day5... (if alive and all that).

Better luck for wolf-hunting toDay!

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

So on D1, on a situation where BeiGei had 5 votes, Eonwë had 2 and Nerwen had just received the 2nd vote (with a few one voters), Shasta and Lottie give votes to Eonwë lifting him high up above Nerwen and practically make it a race between BeiGei and Eonwë, two known innocents.

Okay, if they (or one of them) were trying to help Nerwen out why didn’t they just vote for BeiGei? A good question, but then again, it might have been too suspicious a choice to go for such an overpowering wagon (and /or maybe their earlier comments didn’t allow them to - I don't have time to go through them at the moment, sorry).

You know, that Day I really didn't see Nerwen as at all a possible candidate for lynching. There was no (or at least very little) support at that time for suspecting her. And you don't get to call Steve a known innocent for Day 1 and then say that it was perfectly viable to think he was Cursed Day 2:

In general I’d suggest that as wrong as it was, it did look pretty plausible Eonwë was the cursed yesterday, so those trying to save him might have been those who thought he could be useful to them?

I'm sorry, but that just doesn't match up.

Another one is the deal-making at the end of D2 where phantom and Mac (with the late confirmation of Nerwen) decided between me and Eonwë – while suggesting different candidates to each other and Lottie & Tum. I mean, yes I do appreciate your discussions of choice reasoning-wise – and heh, it’s nice to be alive anyway, so I also do appreciate your final decision. But there was something in the air of that discussion, in the relative ease in which different people were brought in and taken out of it, that makes me really feel like I should rethink one or some of you (remember, any wolves present in the end had no mates in trouble there, they were toying with innocents known to them to be innocents). Surely I do not think you all three are wolves, but it is most unlikely you all are innocent. Or then we really do have a “lay-low” lupine community who are not interested in hanging around there in the end.

And Lottie and Tum then? They were clearly not so happy with the alternatives but tried to get me lynched whatever the other possibilities? Hmm… Maybe the given alternatives included a wolf they (one of them) didn’t like at all? Also, it is easy to see why the wolves would have wanted me dead rather than Eonwë – now that they had a chance. Eonwë could be lynched later, or maybe he really was the cursed and they could turn him the next Night?

So they're suspicious for throwing out different options and we're suspicious for not liking this?

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Hey Lottie. If you see the trouble going through someone's posts and re-posting them, you could add some analysis of your own - or points of your own. I mean what do you think of the person and her possible innocence / lupinity? Otherwise it's quite futile bussiness that doesn't exactly help that much.

Okay. I think it's likely that she's a wolf. In fact, I think it's probable. If you saw no points in my post, I don't know what to tell you. I wrote down what I saw, and made points for and (more often) against her innocence.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

In the end of D2 she seemed more intrested in discussing with Tum than actually considering the voting. So she had her mind made and avoided taking too much a stance on the alternatives. But that's often the mistake the wolves make: when they are on safe-ground at the end of the Day they play casually and do not pay too much attention as to who gets lynched (if it's okay to them, whicever of the candidates dies). Innocents are always a bit worried there, and it mostly shows somewhere.

I thought you just suspected me for taking a stand against the proposed lynch options? Yeah, I had my mind made - I was going to vote for one of the people I'd thought rationally about, rather than a last-minute "hey, she exists - let's kill her" type bandwagon.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Another one is the deal-making at the end of D2 where phantom and Mac (with the late confirmation of Nerwen) decided between me and Eonwë – while suggesting different candidates to each other and Lottie & Tum. I mean, yes I do appreciate your discussions of choice reasoning-wise – and heh, it’s nice to be alive anyway, so I also do appreciate your final decision. But there was something in the air of that discussion, in the relative ease in which different people were brought in and taken out of it, that makes me really feel like I should rethink one or some of you (remember, any wolves present in the end had no mates in trouble there, they were toying with innocents known to them to be innocents). Surely I do not think you all three are wolves, but it is most unlikely you all are innocent. Or then we really do have a “lay-low” lupine community who are not interested in hanging around there in the end.

Isn't this paragraph self-contradictory? By your own logic, Nog, the wolves had no reason to be active in the voting. You know, since you're so clearly innocent.

For the record, as one of the people involved in what you call "deal-making", it seemed to me the talk went round and round, not because we were all having a relaxed friendly chat, but because of the general level of distrust. ("Why is Mac so intent finding someone else to lynch instead of Eonwe?" etc.)

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Also, it is easy to see why the wolves would have wanted me dead rather than Eonwë – now that they had a chance. Eonwë could be lynched later, or maybe he really was the cursed and they could turn him the next Night?

In general I’d suggest that as wrong as it was, it did look pretty plausible Eonwë was the cursed yesterday, so those trying to save him might have been those who thought he could be useful to them?

Oh. I thought you voted him for being a possible wolf. And who else was even talking about him being the Cursed yesterDay? I don't say it was never mentioned in passing, but I thought the main question was whether he might be a wolf.

Still, I'm thankful. There I was, feeling bad at having helped lynch an innocent– but apparently I can set my mind at rest, since trying to save him was the true sign of wolvery! I see!

EDIT:X'd since Nog at #566.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Lottie.

So they're suspicious for throwing out different options and we're suspicious for not liking this?

I hereby dub this type of reasoning "Nogrod's Fork".

[Lalaith]

What follows is more or less a transcript of my notes of impressions as I read through everything that has happened since I went to bed on Day 2, so apologies if it is a little bitty.

Eonwe – well, he was telling the truth after all, he was the Ord. I think the most likely thing is that Boro was a false seer and dreamt of Eonwe as a wolf. It occurred to me today that the -4 might have been a reference to four wolves. If this is the case then it’s very good news for us because we would now have two True Seers rather than two False.

My other main voting possibility of yesterday - Tum – looking over Loslote’s analysis and my own reading of her posts, she seems to be playing the ingénue. Well it might be playing - or it might be for real. Zil’s analysis of her yesterDay was more damning that Los’ analysis today (which made her look more like a for-real ingenue.) And on the subject of Los - I agree with Nog, why post such a long analysis without drawing any concrete conclusions? It looks a bit dodgy to me.
One thing that did play well with me, was Tum’s “here I am, what do you want to know” late last Day. It seemed a fairly candid, innocentish thing to do.
I think I am fairly sure about one thing - Tum, Mac and Los are unlikely to be wolves together.
And further development on this theme - both Mac and Nogs seem to have stopped going for each other and both turned their sights on Lottie. I need to look at her more closely myself, I don’t think we’ve ever played together so I don’t have a real feel for her at all.

Then, one of the major post-bedtime events of yesterday was this last minute rallying of votes for someone other than Eonwe. Now I can see the purpose of doing that but that purpose is rather defeated if the voting is orchestrated in the way Mac seemed to be doing. And the talk of Nienna as “easy victim” needs explaining.

Nogrod, lots of your reasoning this morning seems sensible to me (result of a good night’s sleep?) but this I would query quite strenuously:

remember, any wolves present in the end had no mates in trouble there, they were toying with innocents known to them to be innocents

Actually , unless I have really misunderstood your point, it is not general knowledge that any of them were innocents except Eonwe. How do YOU know? It is a shame that you're not around to answer this...

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Oh. I thought you voted him for being a possible wolf. And who else was even talking about him being the Cursed yesterDay? I don't say it was never mentioned in passing, but I thought the main question was whether he might be a wolf.

I imagine Nog was speaking in retrospect (ie. now that we know Eonwe wasn't a wolf) and from the wolves' point of view (they would have known Eonwe was not a wolf, but could have suspected him to be the cursed). At least, that was the impression I got.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

I imagine Nog was speaking in retrospect (ie. now that we know Eonwe wasn't a wolf) and from the wolves' point of view (they would have known Eonwe was not a wolf, but could have suspected him to be the cursed). At least, that was the impression I got.

Well, maybe it's a language problem, again. But he does sound like he's saying it was a common consensus yesterDay that Steve was a likely Cursed, and it certainly wasn't.

I draw attention to this because it provides such a convenient reason to argue that the people who tried to save a known innocent look worse for it than those who lynched him (such as, you know, Nog himself).

EDIT:Added comment.

[Nerwen]

#565 revisted

Nogrod's Guide to Suspicious Behaviour

1. Jumping on bandwagons

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Inzil and Wilwa have been successfully attending the winning bandwagon on both Days, staying low but still adding to the wagons at more or less important points. Neat.

2. Not jumping on bandwagons

Originally Posted by Nogrod

...Rikae has been around to the late hours and has still avoided the bandwagons on both Days (first with the only vote to the phantom and the other one with a self-vote). Does that look like trying to show an independent image? Well, clearly. But what’s the reason behind it?

3. Voting for known innocents

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Shasta and Lottie give votes to Eonwë lifting him high up above Nerwen and practically make it a race between BeiGei and Eonwë, two known innocents.

4. Not voting for them

Originally Posted by Nogrod

In general I’d suggest that as wrong as it was, it did look pretty plausible Eonwë was the cursed yesterday, so those trying to save him might have been those who thought he could be useful to them?

5. Looking for alternative candidates

Another one is the deal-making at the end of D2 where phantom and Mac (with the late confirmation of Nerwen) decided between me and Eonwë – while suggesting different candidates to each other (...) But there was something in the air of that discussion, in the relative ease in which different people were brought in and taken out of it, that makes me really feel like I should rethink one or some of you (remember, any wolves present in the end had no mates in trouble there, they were toying with innocents known to them to be innocents). Surely I do not think you all three are wolves, but it is most unlikely you all are innocent.

6. Not looking for them

And Lottie and Tum then? They were clearly not so happy with the alternatives but tried to get me lynched whatever the other possibilities? Hmm… Maybe the given alternatives included a wolf they (one of them) didn’t like at all?

Nogrod's Fork sure has a lot of tines, hasn't it?

[Macalaure]

Quick analysis of the late votes yesterDay:

Even before I asked around, Nerwen voices suspicion of Nogrod. She doesn't mind lynching Eonwe and suspects Autume. She later goes on to ponder voting Eonwe and is the only one at this point to actually give reasons. After it's narrowed down to him or Nienna, she declines voting for her.

Phantom doesn't have any suspects. I start to think this is suspicious, since I tend to expect more from him. Replying to my question, he pulls Nienna out of his hat and is willing to shoot in the dark with Lottie. He's really vague around Nogrod, first saying that being wrong doesn't make him evil, then asking me whether we should lynch him before finding out. It creeps me out a little, since he's obviously willing to go along with lynching Nogrod as long as somebody else does the work. Passiveness from the phantom?
Then there's:

Originally Posted by tp

Yeah, whatever, I'll try Nienna if you want, Mac

What? While I was very willing to lynch her, he brought her up in the first place. This really looks like he knows she's innocent, doesn't mind lynching her, but tries to put the blame on me.

Originally Posted by tp

Okay, but seriously, are we going to take a submarine shot or not?

I kind of took over the lead of "let's not lynch Eonwe", that's true, but the way he's defering to my leadership and tries to keep his hands cleaner than mine is unsettling. He then officially narrows the possibilities down to Eonwe or Nienna, however. No mention of Nogrod anymore. After the Nogrod-votes come in, he saves him by voting Eonwe.

Autume doesn't know about Nogrod and is not eager to go after Lottie. She's willing to go after anyone else, though, a statement so general it makes me uneasy. She later states about Nienna that there's not much there, but that that's the case with other people, too, and she'd give it a try. Don't know what to think of that. She also spends some time defending herself from Loslote. Later she says she'd try Nogrod and does so after Lottie took the lead. She's passive again, but that's the way she is, I guess. If the Nogrod-waggon had been successful, her vote would have stood out, so I don't think a wolf would have made it.

Loslote defends herself a lot and dares us to lynch her. Declines Nienna, is willing to go for Nogrod and then does so. She doesn't really take much part in the actual who-to-vote-for debate, which makes me feel better.

Should be find Nienna to be a wolf, we'll have some nice pointers on Nerwen and Lottie, right? Probably not. They wouldn't have been so clear that they won't vote for her if they were packmates.



Comments on toDay:

The phantom is way too optimistic. We were lucky to not lynch a heavy gifted, but the way of our votings have been very clueless. I would really like to know who you actually suspect.

Lottie made a post that takes longer to scroll past than it takes to read others.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Another one is the deal-making at the end of D2 where phantom and Mac (with the late confirmation of Nerwen) decided between me and Eonwë

Dealmaking looks different, I think. And if you closely read the discussion, you were barely discussed between us. It was others who chose to go for you. In the end, all discussion between me and tp was pointless.

I understand the reasons behind Nogrod's vote. On the other hand, he did choose a person who could conceivably be turned into a bandwaggon that will eventually run against his own.

Though it might be painful to plough through it again, I think we'll need to have a close look at the debate around Eonwe yesterDay and who gave what reasons. There have to be some bad points made.

Originally Posted by Lalaith

I think the most likely thing is that Boro was a false seer and dreamt of Eonwe as a wolf. [...] If this is the case then it’s very good news for us because we would now have two True Seers rather than two False.

Don't bet too much money on this. We absolutely do not know for certain Boro dreamt of Eonwe, so we don't know whether he was real or not. Also, as neat as it would be to be able to tell the realness of both seers at once, Hestia took her pick during Night 2, so she could have picked the still-alive Boro.

[satansaloser2005]

Consider the source?

So I hate to bring this up, because it's completely cheap, but Hestia ccould totally come out toDay. I'll give you how (that's the cheap part) and then I'll give you why.

Eros could protect him/her toNight (provided that he didn't last Night) and Pan (under the same restrictions) could protect hm/her the next, etc. We could test Hestia's dreams and see if they were true, and if not, the rangers could (I suppose) stop protecting him/her on rotation. If he/she is the real seer, though, we'd have him/her around at least long enough to clear a hopefully long list of people.

Of course it would be better in a way if Apollo came out, because he/she has had more dreams, but if Hestia told us who he/she picked (as in whether or not he/she picked Boro, as we don't want to know otherwise) we could find out through the above process whether Boro was the false seer, and likewise, Apollo would know if they were the true seer or not. So Apollo gives us more information, but Hestia can tell us if any of that information is useful.

So basically....I think I'm suggesting that we sacrifice Hestia. Sort of. I don't really like the idea of putting her in harm's way, but at the same time it will give us (or at least the other seer) invaluable information as to the truth of the seers' dreams.

Of course if Hestia is now our real seer and he/she is killed because of this plan, we're in deep crap. (If that happens, I completely offer myself for lynch as penance, though it won't really help us with anything at that point.) However, at least we would know which seer is which, as would Apollo. If Apollo's dreams are false, they're (by which I mean the dreams) are of no use, so they'll obviously not rely on them. However, if they know their dreams are in fact true, it could help us out later (especially if Apollo manages to stay hidden for quite a long time).

So, what do you think? Could it work? Is it worth it?

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

We could test Hestia's dreams and see if they were true, and if not, the rangers could (I suppose) stop protecting him/her on rotation.

But how do we test them, unless she's dreamed a wolf?

EDIT:X'd with tum

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

But how do we test them, unless she's dreamed a wolf?

That's my problem. Unless of course one of his/her dreams is Night killed or something, or he/she dreams a wolf, we're rather without a way to test this theory.

Actually, I have a rather fool-proof (to some extent) plan for this. If Hestia dreams Nog toNight (assuming that Nog isn't Hestia, of course) and Nog is something the village can spare (no offense, dear) we can lynch him as our test subject. I say this (and am okay with his sacrifice) because he's stated he can't be around, and this will both help the village and free him of his commitment to the game. Seers receive actual roles, like god/goddess titles, so if Nog isn't exactly what Hestia was told, Hestia is the false seer (or Nog's role was revealed correctly by chance, but those odds are very slim with so many people still alive).