WW LXXIX: Fall From Olympus

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Oh. I thought you voted him for being a possible wolf. And who else was even talking about him being the Cursed yesterDay? I don't say it was never mentioned in passing, but I thought the main question was whether he might be a wolf.

I imagine Nog was speaking in retrospect (ie. now that we know Eonwe wasn't a wolf) and from the wolves' point of view (they would have known Eonwe was not a wolf, but could have suspected him to be the cursed). At least, that was the impression I got.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

I imagine Nog was speaking in retrospect (ie. now that we know Eonwe wasn't a wolf) and from the wolves' point of view (they would have known Eonwe was not a wolf, but could have suspected him to be the cursed). At least, that was the impression I got.

Well, maybe it's a language problem, again. But he does sound like he's saying it was a common consensus yesterDay that Steve was a likely Cursed, and it certainly wasn't.

I draw attention to this because it provides such a convenient reason to argue that the people who tried to save a known innocent look worse for it than those who lynched him (such as, you know, Nog himself).

EDIT:Added comment.

[Nerwen]

#565 revisted

Nogrod's Guide to Suspicious Behaviour

1. Jumping on bandwagons

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Inzil and Wilwa have been successfully attending the winning bandwagon on both Days, staying low but still adding to the wagons at more or less important points. Neat.

2. Not jumping on bandwagons

Originally Posted by Nogrod

...Rikae has been around to the late hours and has still avoided the bandwagons on both Days (first with the only vote to the phantom and the other one with a self-vote). Does that look like trying to show an independent image? Well, clearly. But what’s the reason behind it?

3. Voting for known innocents

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Shasta and Lottie give votes to Eonwë lifting him high up above Nerwen and practically make it a race between BeiGei and Eonwë, two known innocents.

4. Not voting for them

Originally Posted by Nogrod

In general I’d suggest that as wrong as it was, it did look pretty plausible Eonwë was the cursed yesterday, so those trying to save him might have been those who thought he could be useful to them?

5. Looking for alternative candidates

Another one is the deal-making at the end of D2 where phantom and Mac (with the late confirmation of Nerwen) decided between me and Eonwë – while suggesting different candidates to each other (...) But there was something in the air of that discussion, in the relative ease in which different people were brought in and taken out of it, that makes me really feel like I should rethink one or some of you (remember, any wolves present in the end had no mates in trouble there, they were toying with innocents known to them to be innocents). Surely I do not think you all three are wolves, but it is most unlikely you all are innocent.

6. Not looking for them

And Lottie and Tum then? They were clearly not so happy with the alternatives but tried to get me lynched whatever the other possibilities? Hmm… Maybe the given alternatives included a wolf they (one of them) didn’t like at all?

Nogrod's Fork sure has a lot of tines, hasn't it?

[Macalaure]

Quick analysis of the late votes yesterDay:

Even before I asked around, Nerwen voices suspicion of Nogrod. She doesn't mind lynching Eonwe and suspects Autume. She later goes on to ponder voting Eonwe and is the only one at this point to actually give reasons. After it's narrowed down to him or Nienna, she declines voting for her.

Phantom doesn't have any suspects. I start to think this is suspicious, since I tend to expect more from him. Replying to my question, he pulls Nienna out of his hat and is willing to shoot in the dark with Lottie. He's really vague around Nogrod, first saying that being wrong doesn't make him evil, then asking me whether we should lynch him before finding out. It creeps me out a little, since he's obviously willing to go along with lynching Nogrod as long as somebody else does the work. Passiveness from the phantom?
Then there's:

Originally Posted by tp

Yeah, whatever, I'll try Nienna if you want, Mac

What? While I was very willing to lynch her, he brought her up in the first place. This really looks like he knows she's innocent, doesn't mind lynching her, but tries to put the blame on me.

Originally Posted by tp

Okay, but seriously, are we going to take a submarine shot or not?

I kind of took over the lead of "let's not lynch Eonwe", that's true, but the way he's defering to my leadership and tries to keep his hands cleaner than mine is unsettling. He then officially narrows the possibilities down to Eonwe or Nienna, however. No mention of Nogrod anymore. After the Nogrod-votes come in, he saves him by voting Eonwe.

Autume doesn't know about Nogrod and is not eager to go after Lottie. She's willing to go after anyone else, though, a statement so general it makes me uneasy. She later states about Nienna that there's not much there, but that that's the case with other people, too, and she'd give it a try. Don't know what to think of that. She also spends some time defending herself from Loslote. Later she says she'd try Nogrod and does so after Lottie took the lead. She's passive again, but that's the way she is, I guess. If the Nogrod-waggon had been successful, her vote would have stood out, so I don't think a wolf would have made it.

Loslote defends herself a lot and dares us to lynch her. Declines Nienna, is willing to go for Nogrod and then does so. She doesn't really take much part in the actual who-to-vote-for debate, which makes me feel better.

Should be find Nienna to be a wolf, we'll have some nice pointers on Nerwen and Lottie, right? Probably not. They wouldn't have been so clear that they won't vote for her if they were packmates.



Comments on toDay:

The phantom is way too optimistic. We were lucky to not lynch a heavy gifted, but the way of our votings have been very clueless. I would really like to know who you actually suspect.

Lottie made a post that takes longer to scroll past than it takes to read others.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Another one is the deal-making at the end of D2 where phantom and Mac (with the late confirmation of Nerwen) decided between me and Eonwë

Dealmaking looks different, I think. And if you closely read the discussion, you were barely discussed between us. It was others who chose to go for you. In the end, all discussion between me and tp was pointless.

I understand the reasons behind Nogrod's vote. On the other hand, he did choose a person who could conceivably be turned into a bandwaggon that will eventually run against his own.

Though it might be painful to plough through it again, I think we'll need to have a close look at the debate around Eonwe yesterDay and who gave what reasons. There have to be some bad points made.

Originally Posted by Lalaith

I think the most likely thing is that Boro was a false seer and dreamt of Eonwe as a wolf. [...] If this is the case then it’s very good news for us because we would now have two True Seers rather than two False.

Don't bet too much money on this. We absolutely do not know for certain Boro dreamt of Eonwe, so we don't know whether he was real or not. Also, as neat as it would be to be able to tell the realness of both seers at once, Hestia took her pick during Night 2, so she could have picked the still-alive Boro.

[satansaloser2005]

When Phantom's right, he's right.

-OR-

I know something you dunno.


Have to eat breakfast or I may die. But I'm not going to work today (my aunt needs my help with some stuff) so I'll hopefully be around more than I have in the past.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

We absolutely do not know for certain Boro dreamt of Eonwe, so we don't know whether he was real or not. Also, as neat as it would be to be able to tell the realness of both seers at once, Hestia took her pick during Night 2, so she could have picked the still-alive Boro

I was thinking, from the narration, that for some reason Hestia hadn't got to make her pick until last Night, but I see I misunderstood. So in theory we night have two false Seers!

But I do think Boro was likely the false one– we now know for certain that he didn't correctly dream an Eonwolf, and if he dreamed Mira it seems he was given wrong information about her.

EDIT: X'd with Sally; fixed quotes.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

I was thinking, from the narration, that for some reason Hestia hadn't got to make her pick until last Night, but I see I misunderstood. So in theory we night have two false Seers!

But I do think Boro was likely the false one– we now know for certain that he didn't correctly dream an Eonwolf, and if he dreamed Mira it seems he was given wrong information about her.

EDIT: X'd with Sally; fixed quotes.

I'm sorry, but I must have missed something. What's this about Mira?

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

I'm sorry, but I must have missed something. What's this about Mira?

Boro made a funny remark to her on Day One, asking her to pick him if she could, because "I gotta know"– sounds like he might have dreamed her as Pan or Eros. Only, he died in the Night anyway, which of course suggests she isn't.

EDIT:X'd with Wilwa.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Boro made a funny remark to her on Day One, asking her to pick him if she could, because "I gotta know"– sounds like he might have dreamed her as Pan or Eros. Only, he died in the Night anyway, which of course suggests she isn't.

EDIT:X'd with Wilwa.

Oh, that's right. I do remember that now. I actually thought he might have picked up on what he thought were hints that she was a ranger, not that he dreamt her. (I didn't see any hints, but you never know what Boro might have interpreted as one.)

[Macalaure]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

I was thinking, from the narration, that for some reason Hestia hadn't got to make her pick until last Night, but I see I misunderstood. So in theory we night have two false Seers!

Or one real and one false.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

But I do think Boro was likely the false one– we now know for certain that he didn't correctly dream an Eonwolf, and if he dreamed Mira it seems he was given wrong information about her.

We know that Boro was suspicious of Eonwe, but an actual dream is very uncertain to me. And I don't think we can infer anything about Mira's role from Boro.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

Or one real and one false.

We know that Boro was suspicious of Eonwe, but an actual dream is very uncertain to me. And I don't think we can infer anything about Mira's role from Boro.

I said, "likely". I agree we can't tell for sure, but at least there's no positive evidence for his having dreamed correctly.

[wilwarin538]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Of course, if our remaining Seer (Apollo) happens to be false, so is Hestia, unless I've got things badly wrong. However, looks like Boro was the false one, anyway.

It doesn't matter either way, the Mytho could have just as easily picked Boro as they could have picked whoever the other Seer is. There's no way to know whether they're False or not right now.

Originally Posted by Lalaith

Eonwe – well, he was telling the truth after all, he was the Ord. I think the most likely thing is that Boro was a false seer and dreamt of Eonwe as a wolf. It occurred to me today that the -4 might have been a reference to four wolves. If this is the case then it’s very good news for us because we would now have two True Seers rather than two False.

That's interesting (about the number 4). But yeah, about your last part, not necessarily, since the Mytho made their choice Night 2 (when Boro was still alive).

So about my vote yesterDay, I feel bad for just coming in like that without much explanation, but I won't apoligise for it cause there was some unexpected family issues happening, and I had a hard enough time walking away from it long enough to vote, there was no way I could do more. But I'll try not to let it happen again, I would much rather vote for someone I really suspect.

Also about yesterDay (I've only lightly skimmed through what I missed, I'll get back to it later), I have no idea where the Nienna thing came from. Was her name just randomly chosen? Are we just going to lynch random people now without any real suspicion? Later today I'm taking a closer look at that, because the whole thing just makes me uneasy. Eonwe made at least a bit of sense, even if he maybe didn't look *that* suspicious, he had been discussed to be a possible Cursed and if anything it would have stopped us from just considering him again toDay and wasting time. It was ideal, but it made more sense than Nienna.

Lottie's long post there, I'm not even going to read it, it's huge and unnecessarily so. It just looks to be a bunch of quotes with little comments. Maybe a nice little summary of the important points you were trying to make, would make it easier to understand what you think is so bad about Tum? At this point, I don't feel like reading all that.

Nerwen's points about Nog's "fork" are interesting. He does seem to be rather stubborn in his suspicions, and then suspects anyone who doesn't agree with his reasoning. And it seems no matter what someone does, it can be seen as suspicious somehow (which I guess can always happen, but when it's to the point that you're contradicting yourself, than it just seems like a stretch).

edit: Gotta run out for a couple of hours, than I should be around alot.

x'ed with Mac and Nerwen