WW LXXX: It's About Time!

[Aganzir]

So a kind request: could someone please do something suspicious before I get back from work? Okay?

I already talked about this, but I think it would be quite a convenient hint from the cobbler to the wolves.

On day 1, he votes for EW who had made one post so far, saying the timing and phrasing of the post looked sinister.

There's something potentially euphemistic about that phrase. Possibly veiled wolfish banter. Only one way to find out

I know I'm not the best person to talk about day 1 voting, but I think there's a difference between voting more or less randomly and voting for somebody who has only made one IC post & trying to give actual reasons for the vote. The vote makes skip almost certainly not a wolf (it would be quite a bold move to vote for a fellow like that), but I think it looks much more sinister than EW's first post. Poor skip if he's the cobbler, it must have been horrible for him to start a bandwagon against a wolf and have to worry about the wolves attacking him after it...

His 124 is an analysis on day 1's voting, and he seems rather careful not to have too strong opinions on anybody. He semi-defends Greenie and flip-flops on Fea (questioning her lack of mentioning self-defense when she voted for EW). His conclusion is that wilwa and sally look more suspicious for defending EW. Quite understandable but I can but disagree with him - if they were wolves, would they really have tried to stop him getting lynched?

Then there's some theoretical stuff about the EW lynch, and he attempts to explain some comments of his that didn't really make sense. He's been kind of sloppy with the stuff he says, anyway, being often quite ambiguous. I still don't know what he meant when he said he doesn't trust Eomer in any way.

On day 2, he considers voting Pitch (to introduce a new candidate besides Lottie, wilwa and sally), wilwa or sally. He says I'm clearly evil but adds he isn't sure my role in this game is evil. That's a weird comment, it could be put down on flattery (he knows how I like being evil) but there's also something tentative about it, as if he was trying to drop a hint to me... Kind of acknowledging "I think you're evil but let's keep it a secret between the two of us".

He jumps on Eomer's point about Lottie being quiet, pointing out that she's really different from the previous time he played with her. I might add that last (and only) time I played with Lottie she was all over the place and really confident - and she was a sheriff who could share her opinions with her fellow sheriff. Skip played in that game. I expect a player's ordo (or alone working gifted) behaviour to be the norm, and assume Lottie isn't so certain about people's roles in every game she plays... So it seems skip is accusing her of "being normal", if you know what I mean.

Then he votes for wilwa, saying he feels bad about jumping on a bandwagon but wants to "trust his original impression". So, what was this original impression? And what the heck is this comment about?

Good night and may a lucky star shine on us!

ps. you know who I mean by us!

On to day 3... His reaction to my vote for him is weird if he's the cobbler, arguing there's no sense in voting for the cobbler because she can be both harmful and useful to the wolves. If he's the cobbler, one would expect he actually wants to get lynched. Although hmm, arguing so doesn't really tell anything about his role because if he consented to die without a fight, it would be too obvious he was the cobbler and there are probably still some people around who think killing the cobbler is far from being a priority.

It might...

Again. What?
He adds it's much more important for the wolves not to kill the cobbler than it is for the villagers to find her. Trying to drop hints to the wolves again: "Hey it's important you guys don't kill me!"?

He suggests there were no wolves in the wilwagon because it would've been convenient for the wolves just to sit back without getting their hands dirty. Nerwen, Greenie and skip himself voted for her. By then, his pattern of voting the same way as Greenie had already come into being. Also, he and Nerwen had had the short exchange about keeping the cobbler alive (see above). It's possible he thought he had hit both the remaining wolves... Because it really seems like a stretch to say the wolves would behave in a certain way in a certain situation. Way too simple. Okay, we already know Greenie was innocent, and I feel rather good about Nerwen too, but the way skip put forth his theory really looks like he had a hidden agenda.
He analyses the votes that came after his vote for wilwa but doesn't reach any definite conclusions: everything could go either this way or that. He ends up following Greenie's example and votes for sally.

Today he opposes lynching the cobbler. Yes, of course it's better if we catch a wolf, but even the cobbler is enough, and if we have a strong hunch about the cobbler, I think we should go for it (surprise anybody?).

2) You don't know I'm the cobbler

Is this supposed to mean "You don't know that I'm the cobbler" or "You don't know if I'm the cobbler"?
Plus what he said to Nerwen. He looks like the cobbler who thinks he's found a wolf and tries to signal to her.

Seriously though, don't lynch me, I'd do you no good. And I tell you this much: I wouldn't lynch you.

no time for this cobbler-bickering I'm afraid. Not that I'm overly interested in it either

If you're innocent, you should try to convince me it's a bad idea to lynch you instead of just ignoring me. Seriously.

I'm going to have a break now but will check in every now and then. I seriously consider voting for skip spence at this point, unless I get a better idea.

[skip spence]

Originally Posted by Agan

His conclusion is that wilwa and sally look more suspicious for defending EW. Quite understandable but I can but disagree with him - if they were wolves, would they really have tried to stop him getting lynched?

In retrospect I agree. Voting Wilwa was a proven mistake and I'm not really into lynching Sally either at this point.

he doesn't trust Eomer in any way.

Simple as. At that point I didn't trust him at all. Without saying that I suspected him in any particular way either.

He says I'm clearly evil but adds he isn't sure my role in this game is evil. That's a weird comment, it could be put down on flattery (he knows how I like being evil)

It was flattery alright and I'm also flattered by your long and interesting analysis. But I feel that you are baiting me (and although I'm dying to respond in like fashion) I'm not falling for it.

There are two wolves out there and I'm not one of them. Don't think Agan is one either.

[skip spence]

Okay, I'm going out for a few hours now. Will almost certainly be back. Be cool now!

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by skip spence

But I feel that you are baiting me (and although I'm dying to respond in like fashion) I'm not falling for it.

I am not. I don't expect your reply to be as lengthy as my analysis of you, but you got to face it, you look very much like the cobbler. If you're innocent, you're harming us by refusing to answer to my points against you & trying to make me look like I was making a mountain out of a molehill. Was there nothing you'd like to clarify, or did I get everything right and you're now trying to hush it down?

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Interesting analysis, Agan. One of the best I've read in a while. Doesn't mean you're right or wrong, mind; I just enjoyed the style.

My problem, which I've been struggling with for a couple of hours, is that I suspect Loslote more, but fully expect there to be more support for lynching Sally (I'm talking about my two main suspects here).

Still, in my opinion, Loslote deserves to die. She made, to my mind, a vague gifted hint to make critics (skip & myself) back off - to back off from fairly legitimate questioning of her playing style, may I add. A style which seems to have changed since then (as the village has grown smaller and her role thus more prominent, I will concede).

She obviously survived this gifted hint.

She then made another vague gifted hint, saying that she was a thousand times more sure of my guilt than Aganzir's (that could be a paraphrase but those were basically the words). If she says that about any other villager, I'm voting for him/her, because that looks seerish to me. However, I'm in the privileged position of knowing that she is either making absurd claims about a blind guess, or actually lying.

Because of the stakes, I think she's lying. That's why she gets my vote.

But I do guess that Sally's the other wolf.

++LOSLOTE

And now bedtime.

[Aganzir]

If Eomer is a wolf, why did Fea die instead of Lottie or sally? Especially Lottie has been pretty hard on him... And I imagine the wolves would like to get rid of a possible seer even if it incriminated one of them.

Votes:
(Pitch - most likely no vote)
Eomer - Lottie

[satansaloser2005]

I think it's freaking hilarious that Eomer suspects the two people who have been going after him the most. I'm just saying.

I'm back (obviously) but the next hour or so I'll be on and off. After that, I'm here and ready to kill a wolf. Let's get at this, people. No more of this "you're the cobbler, I want to kill you" rubbish. I won't stand for it. We're killing wolves.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

I think it's freaking hilarious that Eomer suspects the two people who have been going after him the most. I'm just saying.

If you're innocent yourself, the only thing you know for sure is your innocence and therefore you know that everybody who suspects you is suspecting an innocent. I'm not saying Eomer is innocent, I'm saying it's perfectly understandable he suspects those who suspect him.

No more of this "you're the cobbler, I want to kill you" rubbish. I won't stand for it. We're killing wolves.

I don't know about you but I'm killing baddies, regardless of their exact role.

Now that you're here, sally, would you care to tell me why you thought either Eomer or Greenie had to be a wolf?

[skip spence]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

If Eomer is a wolf, why did Fea die instead of Lottie or sally? Especially Lottie has been pretty hard on him... And I imagine the wolves would like to get rid of a possible seer even if it incriminated one of them.

I expect that Lottie would reveal if she's the Seer with a positive on Eomer. That would be the wise thing to do at this point. And Sally has been drawing quite a bit of suspicion...

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by skip spence

I expect that Lottie would reveal if she's the Seer with a positive on Eomer. That would be the wise thing to do at this point. And Sally has been drawing quite a bit of suspicion...

Snerk. I have not. I've been suspected by like two people, one of whom is toDay's major suspect (or one of them, anyway). Big difference, Skippity.

[Aganzir]

It's also possible Lottie is a wolf or the cobbler preparing for a fake reveal or just wanting to give a seer impression, and she's chosen Eomer as her victim, counting on the real seer not revealing yet. Or that she's an ordo and everybody has been overinterpreting her statements. I find it rather unlikely she's a wolf though given her role in EW's lynching.

edit: xed with two sallys & a skip. I want pasta! Oh and skip I really wouldn't mind getting some answers from you.