WW: LXXXV - The Lost Philosophers of Maiar

[Aganzir]

Seems I get to continue my Shastanalysis after all...

DAY 1
Wishy-washy comments about Rikae and Pitch. Mac, Kit & I look good.
He says again he likes Mac but thinks he makes too big a deal of my post.
Legate looks good, agrees with him on Lottie. Votes Lottie.

Conclusion: Based on this I'd say he dreamed of Mac first. However he didn't list him as innocent later (unlike he did to me) so I'm not sure. I wouldn't be surprised about being Shasta's night 1 dream, but he did say I looked more like the cobbler. It's also possible he dreamed of Kit.

DAY 2
Doesn't like Legate. Wonders about wilwa (the tone seems innocent enough but could be deflecting attention from the sallywagon).
Boro's post is merely damage control.
Corrects Mac who had interpreted his words wrong - doesn't bring up the possibility he was trying to twist his words though.
List:

Feel good about -

Eomer - playstyle so far has been reminiscent of what I've seen an innocent-Eomer do.
Aganzir - While I'm looking at the Sallywagon, Agan's vote for her seems to be one of the least-wolfish of the lot, and she's brought up some well-reasoned points on others.
Cailin - Seems sharp and observant, no warning signs.
Rikae - Play is typical of ordo-Rikae, and I'd rather not lose her this early.
Mac - Hope I'm not giving him a pass because he sounds logical, but I really have no reason to distrust Mac at the moment.
Kitanna - Obvious.
Lommy - No warning signs as of yet, seems typical innocent Lommy.

--

Feel no-nonsense bad about -

Legate - His flipflopping hardcore on Inzil and his refusal to take a stance on anyone so far without qualifying it in some form or fasion makes me think he's a waffling wolf, especially since I also moderately suspect Inzil (distancing?). His reaction to Skip's joke is something I disagree with Agan on - I think it looked incredibly forced, and while that in itself wouldn't be a reason to suspect him, it certainly doesn't help matters.

Says he might not be opposed to lynching Greenie whom he can never read, but it's more of an example than suggestion to lynch her.
Votes Lottie because of lack of support for a Legate lynch.

Conclusion: It looks bad for Legate, but given his complete change of opinion on him the following day I don't think he dreamed of him. Shasta uses the word "see" when talking about Eomer.
I don't think he had dreamed of Mac (...at the moment) and Lommy (...as of yet). His comment on Rikae seems the most specific (ordo-Rikae etc).

DAY 3
Legate isn't as suspicious as he thought he was (elaborates: he suspected him mainly for 180-ing which is after all typical of him).
Votes for Inzil.

Conclusion: His night 3 dream couldn't have been anyone but Legate.

DAY 4
List:

elronds_daughter - Quiet. Second, after Manwe, on my list of "people Shasta will analyze today".
Macalaure - Intermediate. I've been giving him a pass thus far on the basis of his outspoken-ness. This needs to stop.
wilwarin538 - I honestly don't remember much of anything that's she's said or done in the last couple of days. This is a problem - she's slipping under my radar.
Nessa Telrunya - The wolf-frame-favorite, it seems. Lots of the talk the last few days has been about her, and thinking back, I don't recall her ever passionately defending herself. Contrary to what I said about Inzil yesterday, I'm not sure lynching her is the best option today.
Pitchwife - Under my radar. I need to have a closer look at him today.
Rikae - Interesting. A lot of what she's done has made me think she's being her typical wild-ordo self. As of right now I'm okay with her.
Boromir88 - Pinging my radar a bit. I need to go back and see exactly why, but I need to see more of him today.
A Little Green - I stand by the fact that I think she's being quieter than usual. Another one pinging my radar.
skip spence - A bit farther under my radar than I'd like. One I will be looking at today.
Manwe - Tops my list of 'players to analyze' today. I don't think anyone has paid much attention to him at all, and I don't like that.
Legate of Amon Lanc - I thought him suspicious in the beginning, but what I've seen since makes me think he's more innocent. A conundrum, but I think I'm okay with him right now.
Aganzir - Entirely too evil to be evil, if that makes sense. Possibly a cobbler, but I sincerely doubt she's a wolf. (More likely cobbler than innocent, though.)
Cailin - I like her style, but I'm afraid I may have been giving her a pass due to that. One I'll be looking at today.

Hasn't dreamed (too uncertain): wilwa, Boro, Green
Might have dreamed and found guilty (wants to analyse/look closer/etc): ed, Mac, Pitch, skip, Mänwe, Cailín
Might have dreamed and found innocent (semi-defense): Nessa
Dreamed innocent: Legate

Lists Legate, me and Rikae as green (Nessa, wilwa & Cailín are green-yellow). Boro, Green, Pitch & Mänwe are yellow-orange while no one is yet red.
Analyses Mänwe and says he's the first to enter his red category.
Analyses Cailín, doesn't see her as a wolf but she's worth watching.
Says he really wants to vote for Mänwe but could also go for skip or Boro.
Continues casting suspicion on Mänwe.
Nessa's vote post doesn't make him feel comfortable.
Is irritated by Mac's attitude.
Emphasises he doesn't feel like voting for Legate.
Votes for skip because doesn't agree with the ed & Legate votes and doesn't think lynching Nessa that day is a good idea.

I think Legate is pretty much clear now, and I would say Rikae is too. I'm tempted to say he dreamed of me too, but that's only because I know I'm innocent - he never said so explicitly.
Currently I think our best course is to lynch Mänwe. Shasta's case against him seemed fabricated in the sense that he interpreted everything Mänwe said wolfishly, and something must have tipped the wolves off.

[Aganzir]

I think Cailín's post looks bad. You don't base your opinions on just one of the seer's posts - if he wrote all his dreams there one under the other he would be extremely easy to catch. And if we lynch an innocent today we lose. It would be very convenient for Wolín to direct our attention away from Manwolf.

[Aganzir]

Mac he talked very differently of me and Rikae. The phrase "ordo-Rikae" comes up more than once.

[Cailín]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

I think Cailín's post looks bad. You don't base your opinions on just one of the seer's posts - if he wrote all his dreams there one under the other he would be extremely easy to catch. And if we lynch an innocent today we lose. It would be very convenient for Wolín to direct our attention away from Manwolf.

Don't worry, Agan, I wouldn't. It was just a quick first response because I am quite tired and was planning to go to bed - but wanted to let people know I am back. Of course, then I got stuck looking at wedding cakes and such, so now I'm still chatting.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Cailín

I realise for the rest of you innocents that this still leaves Cailín as an unknown factor as well. I made some bad calls (but believe me when I say that they were not easy votes - I knew with both Loslote and Inzil that they were likely to be hanged, and especially with Inzil I cast the deciding vote & was annoyed and frustrated when I saw that he was innocent after all). It was the best I could do and I am sorry. Like many of use, I hate to lose.

You can bet it does leave Cailín as an unknown factor, and one I really am suspicious about. Even this defense does not sound very genuine to me, to be honest. Though on the other hand, now knowing that Shasta was the Seer, and I suspected him... I am sort of wondering about how well my judgements have been this far. Well, there was this one moment the day before when I was thinking about him as either a Wolf or some Gifted, and I was reluctant, but then his posting made me put him as a Wolf and stick with it. Let's just hope it will go better in the future. Still, Cailín looks suspicious to me.

While I am at that, I must say I was totally shocked when Pitch turned out to be a Cobbler, as we have mostly thought that Mister Boro it is. So what shall we do with the drunken sailor?

I am sure everybody will now go through Shasta's posts, I will do it myself too, in order to get my own check on it.

Originally Posted by Aganzir

Currently I think our best course is to lynch Mänwe. Shasta's case against him seemed fabricated in the sense that he interpreted everything Mänwe said wolfishly, and something must have tipped the wolves off.

Possible. I have to look at it myself too. It is true that one might wonder why would Shasta do something so weird, as a Seer.

EDIT: x-ed since first Mac

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

While I am at that, I must say I was totally shocked when Pitch turned out to be a Cobbler, as we have mostly thought that Mister Boro it is. So what shall we do with the drunken sailor?

Me too. You should have seen my face.

Speaking of Boro... What on earth are you up to? The most likely explanation seems to be that he's a wolf pretending to be either the cobbler or a gifted pretending to be the cobbler. I simply can't see an innocent Boro behaving like that, even for the sake of not being night-killed.

I actually went through the thread during the night to see Pitch's interactions and found two people I thought he could've been hinting with. Wanna guess? Rikae and Legate. I now wonder if they hadn't managed to identify him, or hadn't dropped him any hints that would've helped him identify them. His guilt probably points at Nessa's innocence though.

[Macalaure]

Originally Posted by Agan

The phrase "ordo-Rikae" comes up more than once.

I see what you mean.


Alright, where do we stand?

Dreamt of innocent:
Legate

Likely dreamt of innocent:
Rikae

Possibly dreamt of innocent?:
Me, Aganzir (Kitanna maybe?)

Likely dreamt of wolf:
Mänwe
Even if he hasn't been dreamt of, the fact that Shasta is dead now makes it very, very likely that he's a wolf.

This leaves a rest of six people. Half of these people are evil.

Ordered by current suspicion:
Cailín
Skip
Boro
Wilwa
Greenie
Nessa

The field has been narrowed down nicely at last.

[Cailín]

Possibly dreamt of innocent?:
Me, Aganzir (Kitanna maybe?)

Think you are pretty optimistic there, Mac. I find no evidence that Shasta dreamed of you, except for some positive hints in the very early stages of the game, but he liked me then as well and I am sure none of you are so eager to clear me.

I found you fairly unsuspicious for the past few days, but you are not off my possible wolf list.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

Possibly dreamt of innocent?:
Me, Aganzir (Kitanna maybe?)

---

This leaves a rest of six people. Half of these people are evil.

Just saying that you can't exactly rule out my being a wolf (or Rikae's but that's more of a stretch), therefore it's possible that less than half of them are wolves. That was a sneaky way of trying to clean yourself though.

Originally Posted by Rikae

Yeah, so Pitchcobbler seems to have been hinting at/about Boro. *shrug* Not sure if there is anything useful in that, or whether I'm even reading too much into it, but it does seem to me that a look at Pitch's behavior might be useful, since the wolves likely knew who he was and he may have had some clues as to their identities as well.

Yeah I noticed that too (although not until you pointed it out). However you need to keep in mind that us non-native speakers have a more limited vocabulary (thus we repeat words more often than the rest of you) so I wouldn't read too much into it. Boro & Pitch couldn't have identified each other for sure on day 1, but their connection is interesting.

I don't necessarily trust Cailin, but I'm prepared to believe her conclusions on Shasta's dreams. No wolf dream explains why he didn't reveal

What's your take on Mänwe then?

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Agan

What's your take on Mänwe then?

The bit about "first person to enter my "red" category" is fairly incriminating. The fact that Shasta's dead in itself, though, doesn't mean much. I certainly don't want to vote hastily without looking everything over, since, if I'm not mistaken, toDay is our last chance to get a wolf.

[Macalaure]

Just saying that you can't exactly rule out my being a wolf (or Rikae's but that's more of a stretch), therefore it's possible that less than half of them are wolves. That was a sneaky way of trying to clean yourself though.

That post was more to make up my own mind to see what our options are from here. Maybe it wasn't worded/formatted well. For right now, Rikae, and you, too, are close enough to innocent to me to count with, especially since I thought you two were innocent before. Obviously, I didn't put myself into the list of remaining people either.

[Aganzir]

DAY 1
Suspected Pitch (in an approximate yet more or less arbitrary order from the most to the least suspicious - I haven't listed the dead or myself because this was originally a note intended just for me): Mac, Shasta, Rikae
Pitch suspected: Nessa; Mac, wilwa, Green
Found Pitch innocent: Boro; wilwa, Nessa, Legate
Pitch found innocent: Boro, skip; Rikae

DAY 2
Suspected Pitch: Mac, Shasta, Rikae
Pitch suspected: Nessa
Found Pitch innocent: Boro, skip, Cailín
Pitch found innocent: -

DAY 3
Suspected Pitch: Mac, Rikae, Cailín
Pitch suspected: No one (but Inzil, it seems)
Found Pitch innocent day 3: skip
Pitch found innocent: No one (but Shasta)

DAY 4
Suspected Pitch: Mac; wilwa, Rikae, skip; Green, Legate
Pitch suspected: flip-flopped on Legate
Found Pitch innocent: No one except Legate & Greenie did some flip-flopping
Pitch found innocent: Boro, Cailín, skip (whom he voted), semi-defended also Nessa

Originally Posted by Pitch on Nessa

chances are high they've already dreamed her (I certainly would have if it was me), and if they haven't, I think they should.

I failed to see anything that would've suggested Pitch knew for sure Nessa is innocent, but the way he went after her makes me think better of her.

Ed constantly suspected Pitch while Mänwe attacked her - I believe this is the reason she was killed.

It's rather late now so I won't try to reach any conclusions about Pitch's interactions now but will do so tomorrow if I deem it worth the effort. I thought I'd still post these though.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Rikae

The fact that Shasta's dead in itself, though, doesn't mean much. I certainly don't want to vote hastily without looking everything over, since, if I'm not mistaken, toDay is our last chance to get a wolf.

It does. The wolves were in pains to catch the seer last night because if they hadn't, they would've been considerably worse off today. In hindsight Shasta's comment about really not wanting to vote for Legate was probably a giveaway, but a seer simply wouldn't be so sloppy this late in the game as to explicitly put an unknown into his red category.

Originally Posted by Mänwe

I would venture it a possibility that he'd draw attention away from himself to a quiet and considered by most "submarine" prisoner, to ensure his survival for another night of dreaming.

Someone suspected as heavily as Shasta was yesterday doesn't need to do so. Good try but I think I know who I'm voting for today.

Speaking of which, I might as well do it now because I don't think anything will happen that makes me change my mind. It would be an offense to Shasta to leave Mänwe alive after how he talked of him yesterday.

++MÄNWE

I still have my retraction if something drastic happens, though. I find it the most likely the wolves have agreed to sacrifice Mänwe, but it probably went more along these lines: "Okay buddy we might have to kill you but let's try our best and hold our votes and see if a couple of innocents vote wrong so we can jump on it and we win!"

Originally Posted by skip spence

Day 2:
Highly inconclusive. Possibly an innocent Agan, Kit, Lommy,Rikae, Eomer, Mac or Cailin

I'm willing to bet it wasn't Lommy or Mac, he was simply too undecided about them. Eomer seems the most likely to me - despite his listing me as green I don't think he dreamed of me. The seer wouldn't say "probably the cobbler" of a dreamed of innocent.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Also if everybody agrees upon me being Shasta's dreamed innocent (as it really looks like that), it means probably a lot of responsibility from my part. Well, at least it limits people's choices (they won't vote me), but they can also know that my points are not intentionally biased. I simply hope that they won't be too biased in any other way, I can promise you to do my best to avoid that...

Anyway, for now:

Shasta

First Day:

"Mac and Kitanna both look good to me so far, as does Agan"
"I'm still liking Mac, but I think he might be making altogether too big a deal about Agan's post."
Okay, this looks sort of as if he had dreamed of Mac, but the fact that he much later dropped him suggests to me that he was not his dream. Of course, Shasta could have been bluffing and such, but not sure if he would do it that way. Agan he calls a Cobbler later on, but still keeps her mostly "green". I wonder if he might have dreamed Kitanna, but that sounds rather random (but who knows how he chose his dreams). Also, let's note that possibly not all players have been around by the time he made the post. But on the other hand, he does not really mention anybody else after that, so...

If I were to guess, I would say he might have dreamed of Agan (not Mac because of the later Days). Whereas from later Days it would seem rather sensible to say he dreamed of Rikae, his comment about her on Day 1 is rather nothing-saying. Except that she is the first name mentioned ever. (I wanted to check if there is not a pattern like that by any chance, but seemingly isn't, since he starts Day 2 with me, whom he clears the day after).

Second Day:
Lots of mess and I am not sure. I wonder if he might have dreamed of either of the dead then (the question would be why, neither seems like a likely pick for him, I think). Anyway, he did not at least seem to have dreamed of a Wolf, and so if we look at people he found innocent:

Originally Posted by Shasta

Feel good about -

Eomer - playstyle so far has been reminiscent of what I've seen an innocent-Eomer do.
Aganzir - While I'm looking at the Sallywagon, Agan's vote for her seems to be one of the least-wolfish of the lot, and she's brought up some well-reasoned points on others.
Cailin - Seems sharp and observant, no warning signs.
Rikae - Play is typical of ordo-Rikae, and I'd rather not lose her this early.
Mac - Hope I'm not giving him a pass because he sounds logical, but I really have no reason to distrust Mac at the moment.
Kitanna - Obvious.
Lommy - No warning signs as of yet, seems typical innocent Lommy

So maybe some Rikae now, or even Lommy (who died later) etc.?

Third Day: Backpedals on me, and given how he suspected me before, yes, it is clearer than day that he had dreamed of me there. He had not posted anything much elaborate during the whole Day as he seemingly was posting just from his phone.

Fourth Day: Suddenly starts to think more of Mänwe, so I really wonder if it was that he dreamed of him. The sort of hyperactivity might go hand in hand with "hooray! After several Nights I have at last managed to get a Wolf, brilliant!" But, well... it is not 100%. He at least prefers him to other lynches, in any case, and seems more convinced about him (if you can use that word) than about anybody else.

He posted two lists, I am putting here even the first one, a sort of "intro" list of what he's going to do in the Day:

Originally Posted by Shasta

elronds_daughter - Quiet. Second, after Manwe, on my list of "people Shasta will analyze today".
Macalaure - Intermediate. I've been giving him a pass thus far on the basis of his outspoken-ness. This needs to stop.
wilwarin538 - I honestly don't remember much of anything that's she's said or done in the last couple of days. This is a problem - she's slipping under my radar.
Nessa Telrunya - The wolf-frame-favorite, it seems. Lots of the talk the last few days has been about her, and thinking back, I don't recall her ever passionately defending herself. Contrary to what I said about Inzil yesterday, I'm not sure lynching her is the best option today.
Pitchwife - Under my radar. I need to have a closer look at him today.
Rikae - Interesting. A lot of what she's done has made me think she's being her typical wild-ordo self. As of right now I'm okay with her.
Boromir88 - Pinging my radar a bit. I need to go back and see exactly why, but I need to see more of him today.
A Little Green - I stand by the fact that I think she's being quieter than usual. Another one pinging my radar.
skip spence - A bit farther under my radar than I'd like. One I will be looking at today.
Manwe - Tops my list of 'players to analyze' today. I don't think anyone has paid much attention to him at all, and I don't like that.
Legate of Amon Lanc - I thought him suspicious in the beginning, but what I've seen since makes me think he's more innocent. A conundrum, but I think I'm okay with him right now.
Aganzir - Entirely too evil to be evil, if that makes sense. Possibly a cobbler, but I sincerely doubt she's a wolf. (More likely cobbler than innocent, though.)
Cailin - I like her style, but I'm afraid I may have been giving her a pass due to that. One I'll be looking at today.

I actually call attention to this list, because here he says something about "I will look at..." or something about "just radar" about basically everybody except for me, Rikae, Aganzir, Manwe and Nessa. So that makes me think I might be right in my previous assumption.

Here is the other list of the Day:

Originally Posted by Shasta

Green

Legate
Aganzir
Rikae

Green-Yellow

Nessa
Wilwa
Cailin

Yellow

Skip
Elronhubbard
Mac

Yellow-Orange

Boro
Greenie
Pitch
Manwe

Red

None

He put me, Aganzir and Rikae in the same slot on his last Day's list. I really wonder if all his dreams have survived until now, somehow, it seems a bit improbable. On the other hand, not impossible, and especially with the above, it looks logical.

So yes, that's it, here I would conclude. The thing about calling Agan a cobbler seems more like a backpedaling bluff, it is not really so significant. So I would really think that his dreams were: 1-innocent Agan, 2-innocent Rikae, 3-innocent me, 4-guilty Mänwe (probably). He is still rather uncertain, or switching sides about Nessa to make me think he dreamed of her at any point.

This is probably enough for me now. I should wake up in 7 hours, so better go now. I'll just quickly check if somebody crossposted with me...

And btw: Mänwe's post does not look good to me, not at all, precious. I think an innocent would behave differently if suspected in this way.

(and p.s. sorry for the length, it's the quotes And I know it's like for the sixth time you see the quotes of Shasta toDay, but I think it's very good if everybody goes through it by themselves... or at least I want to, anyway, and also feel it a bit of my responsibility anyway)

EDIT: x-ed with one Agan

[skip spence]

I'm tired and should go to sleep but here's my opinion on Shasta's dreams:

Day 1.
Inconclusive. Not a wolf; possibly an innocent Mac but I doubt it given how Shasta start suspecting him later. Innocent Rikae is a more likely dream to me since she stays "green" throughout.

Day 2:
Highly inconclusive. Possibly an innocent Agan, Kit, Lommy,Rikae, Eomer, Mac or Cailin

Day 3:
Almost certainly an innocent Legate

Day 4:
Probably a wolfish Mänwe. Possibly an innocent Agan.

Now to bed.