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Old 01-12-2011, 10:45 AM   #1
Aganzir
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Originally Posted by Rikae View Post
Has anything happened between Boro, Mac, Greenie & Mänwe that would prevent them from being wolves together? Suspicions too hot, that sort of thing? When Mac went after Boro the other Day, there was little chance of lynching Boro as Mac well knew. I can't recall anything else at the moment.
Nothing that I can think of, but I doubt Greenie is a wolf.
Mac's early accusation of Boro based on his defense of Pitch would be conveniently wolf-on-wolf though. And if Mac or skip is a wolf, their little row yesterday is worth taking a look at. It seems it sprang out of nowhere and they did their best to interpret everything the other said in a bad light (especially skip who was all of a sudden suspicious of Mac whom no one else had really suspected), and it made me raise my eyebrows. The thought crossed my mind they had agreed to do some wolf-on-wolfing so that nobody would start wondering about Mac's still being alive.

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Agan could easily have been a dreamed "ordo" and actual cobbler at that point.
No I couldn't - Shasta would have seen me as the cobbler, not ordo.

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Originally Posted by A Little Green View Post
I want opinions on this one: is it a slip or am I paranoid? Mac seems to automatically assume he's alive the next Day.
Could be either. I tend to assume I don't die overnight even when I'm not a wolf.

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Originally Posted by Macalaure View Post
Assuming Mänwe is a wolf, I'm wondering how the wolves would react now. Abandon hope and plan to continue with three, or try to deceive a large enough number of innocent (that would be only 2!) and win the game unless the ranger has some luck.
Sacrifice him. Sacrifice Boro tomorrow. Let the remaining two try to sneak into the victory. (This is assuming Boro is a wolf. He will undoubtedly try to be serious and convince us of his innocent intentions now though.)

Oh and speaking of Boro. He isn't stupid, he knows he couldn't have fooled the wolves for long because he simply couldn't drop the right names in his posts. That's why I stopped playing the cobbler after day 1. I was hoping an impatient wolf would try to hint at me... however now that I think of it, the people I remember discussing the cobbler issue the most with were Pitch, Mac and skip. Now I wonder.

Quote:
i.e. you can lynch me toMorrow and we can still win. I find that comforting, because I don't really feel like defending myself against all that suspicion.
What exactly do you think makes you more suspicious than say Boro?
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Old 01-12-2011, 11:19 AM   #2
skip spence
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Originally Posted by Aganzir View Post
Oh and speaking of Boro. He isn't stupid, he knows he couldn't have fooled the wolves for long because he simply couldn't drop the right names in his posts. That's why I stopped playing the cobbler after day 1. I was hoping an impatient wolf would try to hint at me...
This point I don't quite understand. Could you explain?
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Old 01-12-2011, 11:23 AM   #3
Nessa Telrunya
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So there goes Legate being a wolf.

Mänwe is possible as a suspect, and my likely vote toDay. It's not very likely that everyone will change their minds, and if no one retracts, it would be difficult to lynch any other suspects without another bandwagon.
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Old 01-12-2011, 11:27 AM   #4
A Little Green
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Nessa
Mänwe is possible as a suspect, and my likely vote toDay. It's not very likely that everyone will change their minds, and if no one retracts, it would be difficult to lynch any other suspects without another bandwagon.
Erm, what? It's difficult to lynch anyone without a bandwagon, I'd say.
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Old 01-12-2011, 11:35 AM   #5
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Originally Posted by A Little Green View Post
Erm, what? It's difficult to lynch anyone without a bandwagon, I'd say.
What I meant was if the votes are too spread out, there's no way to lynch anyone else.
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Old 01-12-2011, 12:13 PM   #6
Aganzir
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Originally Posted by skip spence View Post
This point I don't quite understand. Could you explain?
I was thinking while writing, sorry if the phrasing is unclear - I was comparing Boro's cobbler show to mine that I dropped after one day. He too should have known it wasn't worth the effort because he didn't have the information he needed in order to make the wolves believe him. But he continued it for four days, being totally useless.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Nessa Telrunya View Post
What I meant was if the votes are too spread out, there's no way to lynch anyone else.
If the votes are too spread out, there's no way to lynch a wolf you mean. If an innocent votes for an innocent, or a couple of innocents vote for different wolves, the wolves can easily either hold their votes or retract - and win.
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Old 01-12-2011, 01:27 PM   #7
skip spence
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Okay this became very focussed on early Day 4; Mac and Boro

First thing I noticed is this odd post by Boro (to Mac)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Boro
Obviously you want the lynched-distraction to be a wolf. And are you seriously suggesting we just let Nessa walk away now? Time to get yourself new glasses because the wolves are standing right in front of you, but you're not seeing them. The wolves are just taunting and bluffing us at this point, but you're too focused on me. Now I know I haven't been playing up to my standards, but you'll only have yourself to blame when this is over.

I know I haven't been much use in forming suspicions, but I've tried what I can, by keeping up on reading everything and by not throwing away votes. I've been wrong in voting so far too, but I can't believe you're seriously saying we just let Nessa go.
Now what makes it extra curious is that Mac hadn't even mentioned Boro that Day (although he accused and voted him the Day before. Mac did say this however:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mac
Can we all please re-think your suspicions now?
There's something very forced about Boro's "attack" on Mac. I'm beginning to entertain the idea that Boro and Mac might be fellows doing some neat wolf-on-wolfing in preparation for a rainy day.

Disclaimer: I've not taken Day 1-3 into account; is there anything I have forgotten about that speaks for or against this notion?

It is Agan who calls Boro out:
Quote:
I think Boro is the cobbler (or a wolf posing as one, but it seems unlikelier). He is being useless and he knows it. I've been disinclined to go after him thus far because I thought he might be a gifted, but we're now four days into the game and I find it impossible he'd be so blatantly unhelpful if innocent.
Then Mac posts his long analysis (which was what made me suspicious of him). Here he casts guilt over everyone who had any part in trying to lynch Nessa or Inzil, though some more than others (Calin looked worst, closely followed by me; the Seer Shasta makes the top-three). I started to suspect him mostly because he seemed to take for granted that Nessa is innocent (how could he know that?) and because he made the whole thing seem like an objective, almost scientific, analysis, when it was in fact extremely subjective and built entirely on his personal assumptions or, as I feared, calculations.

Rikae also noticed the opposed views:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rikae
Mac and Boro clearly both have agendas, and one of them is the wolves' agenda. Let's toss a coin and lynch one.

Well, not toss a coin, but Boro is treating Nessa as a known wolf, and Mac is treating her as a known innocent.
What was this btw, Rikae?
Quote:
I voted Boro because I thought he might be a seer-dreamed wolf.
Me and Mac are exchanging some blows. Finally it sort of peters out with this...
Quote:
Originally Posted by skip
But you did consistently award negative points (ie a suspicion) for anyone who favoured either Nessa or Inzil.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mac
That's what you do if you don't have a bias. You should try it sometime.
I didn't reply to Mac then (too hectic, not enough time) but I will now. This bias of yours is what made me raise my eyebrows in the first place. Inzil is a known innocent. Nessa is not (not by me anyway).

Mac, you still haven't spelled out your case on me by the way?

Reading back I was also reminded of Rikae's song. Loved it!
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Old 01-12-2011, 01:39 PM   #8
skip spence
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Yeah, I'll be away toMorrow (Thursday/Friday) and it's doubtful if I can make an appearance then I'm afraid, though I'll promise to try best as I can. If nothing out of the ordinary happens I fully intend to vote Boro just so you know.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Agan
I was comparing Boro's cobbler show to mine that I dropped after one day. He too should have known it wasn't worth the effort because he didn't have the information he needed in order to make the wolves believe him. But he continued it for four days, being totally useless.
Maybe I was unclear as well. What I don't understand was this: what information could the real cobbler, as opposed to a fake cobbler, obtain to help him convince the wolves he was the cobbler and how would he do that?

Now for packing. Should at least check the thread out before DL but will probably not be that productive.

Edit: x'ed with 2 Cailin
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