Werewolf XCVII: Werewolves in the Westfold Game Thread

[Coppermirror]

Why did the wolf choose G55 last Night?

Pitch or Shasta

There is no way that the wolf would have killed whichever out of Pitch or Shasta is innocent. G55 and I were reasonably sure of each other's innocence and would without a doubt have voted for the one remaining. At very best, they could have tried persuading Sally into making the vote a tie. Not sensible.

Me

There is absolutely no way any wolf with half a brain would have killed me last Night. The wolf's best strategy would be to increase the number of genuine suspects from 2 to 3. That means going after either me or G55, and nobody had any real suspicions of G55.

Of particular note yesterDay:
- Shasta wrote only one analysis yesterDay, and that was of me, and could have implied that he would like to have voted for me but thought it would be wasted.
- Pitch went through all of the candidates. He decided I was probably innocent based on my vote patterns, chalking up the wording he found suspicious to newbieness.

This means that, potentially, the Pitchwolf/Shastawolf could have thought there's a good chance of (a) persuading the innocent Pitch/Shasta, or (b) could have thought that there's enough of a possibility of the other one suspecting me that they could use the confusion to their benefit.

However, realistically, they would have had much less of a chance to pull that off if G55, who did not suspect me seriously, was around.

If it's Shasta, the move of getting rid of G55 has worked perfectly. If it's Pitch, I'm not so sure.

YesterDay, Pitch suspected Eomer-innocent and Shasta. For him to suddenly switch to me as his target to the extent of voting for me, he should surely have some reasoning for this. Therefore, if I examine his reasoning carefully, I should have a chance of determining whether he's an innocent who has been struck by paranoia and a Shastawolf's plan, or a Pitchwolf who either got scared after seeing in my first post this Day that I hadn't totally ruled him out, or more likely had decided to pretend to change his opinion over the course of the Day to capitalise on Shasta's possible suspicion of me yesterDay. Not sure how Sally would fit into that.

So...let's look at what would have happened toDay if Sally had been the one killed, compared to what really happened.

Probable situation if Sally had been killed:
One near-guaranteed vote Shasta from me.
A probable Shasta vote from Pitchwife
A probable Pitchwife vote from Shasta?
An vote for either Shasta or Pitch from G55 (who yesterDay found Pitch the more suspicious of the two).

If we have a Shastawolf, the situation is very bad for him, because there's still a possibility that G55 will vote for him, even if she didn't suspect him so much yesterDay. At the very best for him, it would be a tie with 50-50 odds.

If it's a Pitchwolf, the situation is slightly better, but still not great. The worst situation for him is a tie. But G55 was suspicious of him, and she might have been able to persuade me of that too.

Neither of those situations is particularly good for the wolf. I'm inclined to think that a Shasta-wolf has the most to gain statistically from killing G55 and shaking the village up. Hmm. I've still got less info out of this analysis than I'd hoped. Now, onto an overall analysis of Shasta and Pitch.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Pitch

Sure. What I was bothered by was your use of the word "assuming" in a context where we don't need to assume anything because we know

You're leaving out my use of the word "obviously", so yes, this is a stretch. However, I feel like this is just turning into an unneeded grammar lesson.

Originally Posted by Pitch

So we end up toDay with Cop, Shasta and the two players Cop considers most likely to vote Shasta. Isn't that an amazing coincidence?

So you're saying a Copwolf considered Sally more likely than G55 to vote for me? I'll have to go back and look at that.

Originally Posted by Sally

Wouldn't it be hilarious if it was me?

Well, it would certainly explain the stench.

Originally Posted by Sally

His jab at Dun here feels to me like a Wolfsicle playing ball with his mate. "That's not how the game is supposed to be played" strikes me as an in-joke between wolves.

I said that in reference to me saying "I could vote you because I don't like you" in reference to Inzil saying "I could vote for Shasta for... being Shasta." It's pretty well documented that Inzil and I tend to have a cordial, but acrimonious relationship when playing WW.

Originally Posted by Sally

Now his #131....that's an interesting one. He says, flat out, that tying the vote would be silly.

And it would have been silly. If you're going to use that remark as a reason to suspect me, then you've got to go all the way with it -

Originally Posted by Pitch

I briefly considered being a dadaist and voting Sally or myself, but not seriously, as both would be stupid.

Originally Posted by Sally

In his #165 he actually replies to me asking him to tell me he's not a wolf. I....am not entirely sure an innocent Shasta would bother to reply to that statement.

I always think you're important enough to respond to, dearie. *winks*

Originally Posted by Sally

The start of his last vote post (and it will be his last, regardless) is not remotely funny at this stage of the game. I am actually waiting for the wolf to somehow manage to get me lynched, because I'm still not sure why I'm alive. He makes a fairly decent point about the convenience of who's left, except he's wrong (at least based on the information Cop would have had last Night): I had said I didn't want to vote Shasta.

This goes back to what I said about Pitch above.

Originally Posted by Cop

I don't see your logic for how not killing you would benefit me greatly. If I had been a wolf, I would certainly not have killed G55. Why would I kill someone who was extremely unlikely to vote for me, in order to try to persuade you, who I know next to nothing about and have hardly spoken to in this game, not to vote for me? Makes no sense. Nay, Sally, your suggestion that a hypothetical wolf-me would do such a thing, where there would be no gain in it for me, is a grievous insult.

The thing about defenses like this is that they are, while very well written, ultimately meaningless. You can say "as a wolf, I would have/would not have done X", but there's no way for the rest of us to know that. Even moreso since this is your first game with us, which means we've never seen you work as a wolf.

Originally Posted by Cop

There is no way that the wolf would have killed whichever out of Pitch or Shasta is innocent. G55 and I were reasonably sure of each other's innocence and would without a doubt have voted for the one remaining. At very best, they could have tried persuading Sally into making the vote a tie. Not sensible.

I don't not buy this, necessarily, but I think you're being far too general with your "without a doubt". Unless you're the Seer (you're not), it's never wise to be 100% sure about anyone's innocence or guilt.

Originally Posted by Cop

There is absolutely no way any wolf with half a brain would have killed me last Night. The wolf's best strategy would be to increase the number of genuine suspects from 2 to 3. That means going after either me or G55, and nobody had any real suspicions of G55.

No it doesn't. If the wolf's best strategy is to increase the number of suspects from two to three, then that means going after Sally, the known innocent player.

Originally Posted by Cop

Shasta wrote only one analysis yesterDay, and that was of me, and could have implied that he would like to have voted for me but thought it would be wasted.

Haha, I thought I flat-out said that. Through my analysis of you yesterday, you came up as suspicious to me. And honestly, nothing that's happened yet has done anything to decrease that, but Pitch's early vote and flip-flop on you, in relation to my stance from yesterday (and the fact that his early vote hasn't been jumped on yet, even though everyone has posted) make me hesitate.

Originally Posted by Cop

(b) could have thought that there's enough of a possibility of the other one suspecting me that they could use the confusion to their benefit.

This, if we do have a Pitchwolf, is something I could agree with.

Originally Posted by Cop

Probable situation if Sally had been killed:
One near-guaranteed vote Shasta from me.
A probable Shasta vote from Pitchwife
A probable Pitchwife vote from Shasta?
An vote for either Shasta or Pitch from G55 (who yesterDay found Pitch the more suspicious of the two).

Yesterday, I was more suspicious of you than I was of Pitch.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Which of Pitch and Cop has more to gain from G55 being gone? It's a difficult question to answer, considering there must have been a pressing reason to kill her off as opposed to Sally. I'm going to look back and see who they both suspected.

[Coppermirror]

After I've finished my analysis, I'll probably address the rest of your post, Shasta. But I'll go over this point first.

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Yesterday, I was more suspicious of you than I was of Pitch.

You barely said anything yesterDay, just showed up, bantered a bit, then said you would do an analysis of me as nobody else had done so (which you then did) and then voted later. You did not even mention Pitchwife.

In fact, Shasta, your lack of contribution to the discussion yesterDay is one of the things which makes me suspicious of you. The only person you analysed was me, and of your vote for Eomer, you said that was based on self preservation and did not say any more than that. I did ask you that Day to say what your opinions were of Eomer and Pitch were, but you never did.

Originally Posted by Coppermirror

But I still need to consider the case against Shasta carefully. He hasn't said much yet, so I want to see more of what he has to say. He's planning to analyse me, but I would very much like to see what he thinks of the other candidates too.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Sally:

On Day 1, regarding Nessa's vote for a then-absent Pitch -

Originally Posted by Sally

This is a horrible thing to say, but I think Nessa's vote actually makes me look bad and Pitch look better. After all, she said things against me and then went after someone random in the end, disregarding her earlier "suspicion" of me.

Of course it's also possible she just hoped to lynch a possibly gifted Pitch in his absence, which would also not surprise me; I didn't go after Eomer for fear of doing exactly that, so I could see a wolf capitalizing on the lack of Pitch and disregarding anything else in hopes of having one less gifted come the Morrow.

Regarding the KitSeer incident -

Originally Posted by Sally

Pitch and I really need to stop agreeing. And yes, I'm using the word creepy again, 'cause it's getting to those levels. But, you know, maybe we're just right.

And then today -

Originally Posted by Sally

Oh my cupcakes. I was reading through the thread trying to get a bead on Pitch when I saw this post. And then I realized....

Quote:
Originally Posted by tiny old me
Pitch and I really need to stop agreeing. And yes, I'm using the word creepy again, 'cause it's getting to those levels.
Have I been tricked by Mr. Wolfgreeable all this time?

And then there's her post #207, which I won't bother quoting.


Conclusions:

Well, Sally seems to have barely mentioned Cop at all, and as for Pitch, she mentions him in passing once or twice, but never really seems to suspect him. She's made some points against him today, but for the purposes of determining why she wasn't killed, that's irrelevant.

So, basically, she's an enigma. Speaking from wolvish experience, the only thing worse than having a cleared innocent at endgame is having that same cleared innocent at endgame, and having no idea which way they'll jump. Sally appears to be both, as far as a Copwolf or Pitchwolf is concerned.

So... why not Sally? She appears to be worse than G55 for the wolves to leave alive in every way, which leads me back to my original conclusion - there had to be an extremely pressing reason why the wolf thought having Sally alive at endgame would be more advantageous than having G55.

If we have a Pitchwolf, it might be that having an unknown (Sally) was preferable to having someone who was unlikely to vote Cop and considered Pitch to be a more likely wolf than me. Had Sally been killed, a Pitchwolf would have likely been facing a vote from G55 (and possibly a self-preservation one from me, as well, considering Cop's likely vote for me.)

If we have a Copwolf, the reasoning becomes muddy. As has already been shown, there simply isn't any good reason I can think of for Cop to have killed G55 - had Sally been killed, Cop would have already had a reason to vote for me and could be reasonably sure that she wouldn't be receiving G55's vote. Whereas Sally could vote in any direction - including for Cop.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Cop

You barely said anything yesterDay, just showed up, bantered a bit, then said you would do an analysis of me as nobody else had done so (which you then did) and then voted later. You did not even mention Pitchwife.

Obviously I wasn't suspicious enough of Pitch yesterday to say anything - if I had been, I'd have mentioned it.

Originally Posted by Cop

In fact, Shasta, your lack of contribution to the discussion yesterDay is one of the things which makes me suspicious of you. The only person you analysed was me, and of your vote for Eomer, you said that was based on self preservation and did not say any more than that. I did ask you that Day to say what your opinions were of Eomer and Pitch were, but you never did.

I'm very sorry that the real world intruded, that I was pressed for time, and couldn't meet your exacting standards. My deepest apologies.

In any case, my vote for Eomer was just that - self-preservation. I hadn't looked at him close enough to warrant any real suspicion, so I was forced to vote to keep someone I knew was innocent alive - myself.

As far as Pitch goes, he's been the calm, collected, slightly-under-the-radar Pitch that I'm used to seeing until today. I almost never form an opinion of him before Day 3, he's one of the hardest people for me to read.

[Coppermirror]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

I'm very sorry that the real world intruded, that I was pressed for time, and couldn't meet your exacting standards. My deepest apologies.

I know you mentioned you were busy yesterDay. But that's not something villagers can rely on when dealing with a possible wolf, as I'm sure you know. The more info that's out there, the better.

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

In any case, my vote for Eomer was just that - self-preservation. I hadn't looked at him close enough to warrant any real suspicion, so I was forced to vote to keep someone I knew was innocent alive - myself.

As far as Pitch goes, he's been the calm, collected, slightly-under-the-radar Pitch that I'm used to seeing until today. I almost never form an opinion of him before Day 3, he's one of the hardest people for me to read.

Hmm...that's fairly useful information to know. Thanks.