Ten Year Anniversary Game: Living Thread

[the phantom]

Originally Posted by me

Would I completely be ruining the mood if I immediately launch into strategy and population/role analysis?

Originally Posted by Sally

Honestly, given our current circumstance, it would be calming. Or at the least, it would give me something else to be stressed about.

Well then, since I have permission, I do believe I'll work on a very non-fluffy post.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by the phantom

Well then, since I have permission, I do believe I'll work on a very non-fluffy post.

Bless.

[the phantom]

But anyway, that first scenario might be a bit dark, so let's look at another direction this thing can go...

Seer dreams of two innocents Night 1 and two innocents Night 2 (not that unlikely). We purposefully tie the vote Day 1 and 2 so we don't lynch anyone. Night 2 kills are only Ordos (or a WW and an Ordo, or a protection and an Ordo).

Day 3 Seer reveals himself and 4 innocent dreams and Ranger/Hunter/Lovers also reveal, giving us 9 known innocents. That night the Ranger protects the Seer and the Seer brings us two additional innocents to balance the Ranger/Lover that were offed during the Night. We would at that point have 9 known innocents in a village of 19, thus giving us a 60% chance of lynching a WW. Let's say that night the WWs kill the Seer and other Lover, but the day before the Seer could tell us exactly who he was dreaming that night and whoever he finds innocent he'll make sure the Dead Thread gives a bonus vote to that person (so we have another known) meaning that even if we missed on the lynch yet again the day after we'd be sitting at 7-3-3 with SIX known innocents, thus we'd have a 6/7 chance of lynching a WW. If we missed yet again we'd sit at 4-3-3 with all four innocents being KNOWN, meaning all six Werewolves would then be known. (But then who the heck knows how that would go down, since everyone would know who was guilty and yet the innocents would be outweighed overall 4-6.)

(At least I THINK I did all of that correctly. )

So, you can see that by just avoiding killing Gifteds and getting good dreams, we can still have a possible win even if we're terrible at lynching.

But back to my earlier scenario, if the Seer (or Seer & Ranger) both die in the first two cycles, then the village could be cut down very swiftly and would be lucky indeed to pull through.

I mean, wow, Kuru- this thing is mighty complicated!

[the phantom]

There Sally. Text to chew on. I even broke it into two pieces so it seems like more. (like sliders)

[A Little Green]

A couple of things.

Originally Posted by phantom, underlining mine

I think #3 is the most intriguing aspect of this contest. The Baddies definitely don't want to lose the double kill each night (see my chart above for how quickly it diminishes our population), BUT they can't allow the opposing pack to equal or outweigh them, so really I think the WWs will be just as interested in lynching accurately as the rest of us. Lynching the opposition is the way to go, because it buys goodwill and they don't have to waste night kills on offing the other pack- hunting for Gifteds instead.

First, I think this is a crucial point. The wolves can (and probably will) engage in completely genuine wolf-hunting during Day phases, which means that we have to think differently than we would in a normal game; we have wolves who don't know everyone's alignment and who have a good motive to hunt bad guys too. That means they're not by default lying when they say they suspect someone, so a fake-looking case alone is not as strong a sign of wolfishness as it usually is. To make things even more muddled, looking at potential pack behaviour could point to the Lovers just as well. There are still the Night kills for clues, I suppose, but I personally never trusted them much, there's too much pure guesswork involved - especially in a game where the wolf packs might have an interest in framing each other as well as the villagers. I foresee a headache.

Originally Posted by phantom

Day 3 Seer reveals himself and 4 innocent dreams and Ranger/Hunter/Lovers also reveal, giving us 9 known innocents. That night the Ranger protects the Seer and the Seer brings us two additional innocents to balance the Ranger/Lover that were offed during the Night. We would at that point have 9 known innocents in a village of 19, thus giving us a 60% chance of lynching a WW. Let's say that night the WWs kill the Seer and other Lover, but the day before the Seer could tell us exactly who he was dreaming that night and whoever he finds innocent he'll make sure the Dead Thread gives a bonus vote to that person (so we have another known) meaning that even if we missed on the lynch yet again the day after we'd be sitting at 7-3-3 with SIX known innocents, thus we'd have a 6/7 chance of lynching a WW. If we missed yet again we'd sit at 4-3-3 with all four innocents being KNOWN, meaning all six Werewolves would then be known. (But then who the heck knows how that would go down, since everyone would know who was guilty and yet the innocents would be outweighed overall 4-6.)

I see a small hitch here. How can we believe anyone's claim if no roles are revealed upon death? There's no way of checking a claim, so basically we could have Seers revealing left, right and centre with no one able to verify which one is telling the truth - or, at least, no one but a resurrected dead person, and even that ony about whoever the dead happen to have checked.


EDIT: x-ed with two Lotties! <3

[the phantom]

Originally Posted by Lottie

And I think we have to assume that we are, since it'll be a while until we get any confirmation one way or the other, and even that won't be as concrete as I would feel comfortable with.

Yeah, that's going to drive me nuts.
*lynch*
Okay, so... Was that a good lynch? Guess I'll find out in a couple days...

Originally Posted by Lottie

Then again, it seems to me that the best way to set the two packs against each other is simply to kill one wolf from either pack - then the pack which is down a member will by necessity switch its focus from the Gifteds to the other pack, since the only way for them to win would be to kill at least two members of the other pack.

Yep. Yep, yep, yep. The instant a Wolf gets killed this thing completely changes. But I would tentatively say that the Seer is still probably target #1 (because of the double-dream). Maybe. I dunno...

Originally Posted by Lottie

If we kill a wolf, we've gained a lot, and I might be hugely naive here, but I feel like they are less of a threat in the Dead Thread than in the Living Thread.

We gain a lot, yeah, but as far as WWs in the Dead Thread... I'm slightly hesitant to start laying out guidelines for the Dead, because really it'll be up to the Dead to do what they want, but you realize we could choose to empower the Dead.

Basically, we purposefully tie the vote every day and let the Dead decide who gets the bonus vote (and thus who dies). It's possible that it would be a good tactic (because the Dead will always know more than the living as they have access to the roles of the Dead). So basically we just debate which two to place on the chopping block and let the Dead call the shots. I mean, simple odds certainly say that we can trust the dead since 2/3 of them will be Wolf kills (thus unlikely to be Wolves). Plus we'll probably lynch a non-Wolf today.

Anyway, I don't know if it's even realistic to do what I'm talking about. Just putting it out there. Anyone else think about that option?

[the phantom]

Originally Posted by Green

The wolves can (and probably will) engage in completely genuine wolf-hunting during Day phases, which means that we have to think differently than we would in a normal game; we have wolves who don't know everyone's alignment and who have a good motive to hunt bad guys too. That means they're not by default lying when they say they suspect someone, so a fake-looking case alone is not as strong a sign of wolfishness than it usually is.

Yeah, it's super weird.

Originally Posted by Green

How can we believe anyone's claim if no roles are revealed upon death? There's no way of checking a claim, so basically we could have Seers revealing left, right and centre with no one able to verify which one is telling the truth

Would a WW fake reveal in this contest? If there is a Seer counter then I guess the Ranger would have to protect both that night (ha ha, protecting a WW from the other team), but soon enough they'd both be dead (because the other pack doesn't know which is real) and thus soon enough the dead thread could tell us which Seer was real.
I simply post "Tomorrow I will cast a throwaway vote. If So-And-So was the real Seer, give me a bonus vote tomorrow", the Dead check So-And-So's true identity and then either give or don't give me the bonus vote according to what they found. Bang. We know which Seer was real and what the real Seer dreams were, not to mention the false-reveal WW is now dead which means the diminished pack has to gun for the other pack to avoid losing because they're already down one Wolf.

And if BOTH packs try a counter-reveal, even better, because we'd have a dent into both packs.

Is that right?

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by the phantom

Would a WW fake reveal in this contest? If there is a Seer counter then I guess the Ranger would have to protect both that night (ha ha, protecting a WW from the other team), but soon enough they'd both be dead (because the other pack doesn't know which is real) and thus soon enough the dead thread could tell us which Seer was real.

I think a false reveal is unlikely. But it could still buy the wolves a day or two, flush the real Seer, and maybe allow them to garner trust with the rest of the village by sacrificing one of the pack. I wouldn't write the potential off too easily.

I simply post "Tomorrow I will cast a throwaway vote. If So-And-So was the real Seer, give me a bonus vote tomorrow", the Dead check So-And-So's true identity and then either give or don't give me the bonus vote according to what they found.

I honestly had not thought of this, and it sounds really useful, but I am concerned about trusting the Dead Thread so much - what if they skew the vote? I don't think it's super likely, but all it would take is one wrong vote on the part of the Dead - maybe because of a wolf majority, maybe because of a lack of participation from the dead ordos, maybe from a misled and mistaken Dead - to deceive the whole village for, potentially, the rest of the game.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

This is what happens when you don't get first word in. Y'all have all but covered my essay into the three-party dynamic of this village.

Oh, hi Mum.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

First, I think this is a crucial point. The wolves can (and probably will) engage in completely genuine wolf-hunting during Day phases, which means that we have to think differently than we would in a normal game; we have wolves who don't know everyone's alignment and who have a good motive to hunt bad guys too. That means they're not by default lying when they say they suspect someone, so a fake-looking case alone is not as strong a sign of wolfishness than it usually is.

Indeed. It's similar to the dynamic when there's a Werebear, except that in that case there's the "flag" of a player going on about bear-hunting rather than wolf-hunting.

On the plus side, the division between the wolves does at least mean they can't steer the lynch as easily as if it were one pack of six.

To make things even more muddled, looking at potential pack behaviour could point to the Lovers just as well.

Yes, but that's always the case with lovers.

Edit:x'd with Green at #24.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

I sense... death in this place. I hear foul creatures about.

But so great to be back in WW, and I must say, quite a change with this ridiculously lively and overposted thread... so let's get to it.

Originally Posted by Loslote

Then again, it seems to me that the best way to set the two packs against each other is simply to kill one wolf from either pack - then the pack which is down a member will by necessity switch its focus from the Gifteds to the other pack, since the only way for them to win would be to kill at least two members of the other pack. Whether or not the other pack switched focus, too - though I think they would soon enough - we would have a bit of a reprieve. Plus, to have two wolves actively and jointly targeting the others would be much more obvious than to have three wolves coasting in the background.

To get back to my point, I think probably we should take any chance we can to bag a wolf, since doing so would not only wittle down the pack numbers, but would also help turn the Night kills away from our Gifteds and towards the other pack. The question is, I guess, is it better statistically to have the chance to potentially turn the Night kills away from the Gifteds, or to avoid the risk that we ourselves might kill a Gifted by mistake? If we kill the Seer Day 1, we're in huge trouble, but I suppose they can still do some good in the Dead Thread. If we kill a wolf, we've gained a lot, and I might be hugely naive here, but I feel like they are less of a threat in the Dead Thread than in the Living Thread. So I would say that I personally think a Day 1 lynch is worth the risk, but that's kind of subjective, and I would definitely like to see other peoples' perspectives.

I think all in all, this game - at least before we get the hang of it - is going to be such a chaos, that accidentally lynching a Gifted when wishing to lynch a Wolf is about as probable as Wolves killing Wolves from other pack even if they are aiming for Gifted, and so on. Basically at this stage, everyone is probably freaked out equally.

But the main power, in my opinion, lies in the Dead thread. Because we know nothing of the roles upon lynching, as the phantom has so lovelily illustrated, it is hard to form opinions even in regards to whether we were right or wrong. But with the amount of Wolves around and all, we are bound to hit something, and with the amount of Night kills, everything should probably gather up speed in just a couple of Days.

Originally Posted by A Little Green

First, I think this is a crucial point. The wolves can (and probably will) engage in completely genuine wolf-hunting during Day phases, which means that we have to think differently than we would in a normal game; we have wolves who don't know everyone's alignment and who have a good motive to hunt bad guys too. That means they're not by default lying when they say they suspect someone, so a fake-looking case alone is not as strong a sign of wolfishness as it usually is. To make things even more muddled, looking at potential pack behaviour could point to the Lovers just as well. There are still the Night kills for clues, I suppose, but I personally never trusted them much, there's too much pure guesswork involved - especially in a game where the wolf packs might have an interest in framing each other as well as the villagers. I foresee a headache.

I understand where you are coming from, but I'd say, personally, that there still is a difference. Really, from my experience, whenever one is playing a Wolf, whatever the circumstances, there is a psychological difference. They may aim to more or less hunt the other pack, but they still have to stick together, avoid getting lynched themselves (of which normal Ordos usually still tend to be a bit more carefree) and so on. As for pack behavior and Lovers, agreed, even though at least the Lovers (resp one of them) come back.

But all in all, I'd say this point about "it being a headache" is not really much of a point, rather an empty complaint. We still do what we do, there are ways to catch Wolves, so I wouldn't totally negate this.

Originally Posted by Greenie

I see a small hitch here. How can we believe anyone's claim if no roles are revealed upon death? There's no way of checking a claim, so basically we could have Seers revealing left, right and centre with no one able to verify which one is telling the truth - or, at least, no one but a resurrected dead person, and even that ony about whoever the dead happen to have checked.

Originally Posted by the phantom

Would a WW fake reveal in this contest? If there is a Seer counter then I guess the Ranger would have to protect both that night (ha ha, protecting a WW from the other team), but soon enough they'd both be dead (because the other pack doesn't know which is real) and thus soon enough the dead thread could tell us which Seer was real.
I simply post "Tomorrow I will cast a throwaway vote. If So-And-So was the real Seer, give me a bonus vote tomorrow", the Dead check So-And-So's true identity and then either give or don't give me the bonus vote according to what they found. Bang. We know which Seer was real and what the real Seer dreams were, not to mention the false-reveal WW is now dead which means the diminished pack has to gun for the other pack to avoid losing because they're already down one Wolf.

And if BOTH packs try a counter-reveal, even better, because we'd have a dent into both packs.

Is that right?

That extra vote idea sounds doable, of course on the account of that you don't have the Dead thread just full of Wolves (from the same pack, who would coordinate... so it shouldn't happen, in fact). So yeah. But in any case, it shouldn't happen in the first place. I really think Seer-revealing is potentially dangerous, still. I mean, if there's suddenly a reveal of seven "Seers", everyone can lynch every single "Seer" just for good measure (and the Wolves, I am sure, would take care of some of the rest). In any case, Wolves still do not want to end up lynched. No matter that the village can't know what you are, you still don't want to be dead. Dead packs don't win, even in a game that is all about death.

Originally Posted by the phantom

Basically, we purposefully tie the vote every day and let the Dead decide who gets the bonus vote (and thus who dies). It's possible that it would be a good tactic (because the Dead will always know more than the living as they have access to the roles of the Dead). So basically we just debate which two to place on the chopping block and let the Dead call the shots. I mean, simple odds certainly say that we can trust the dead since 2/3 of them will be Wolf kills (thus unlikely to be Wolves). Plus we'll probably lynch a non-Wolf today.

Anyway, I don't know if it's even realistic to do what I'm talking about. Just putting it out there. Anyone else think about that option?

I am not sure if I am following, all the maths and statistics goes completely over my head. Besides, I am not sure if a village this big is... manageable. You might just as well end up with Wolves (either pack or rather both) manipulating the vote from inside the village itself.

(x-posted with TP)

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by the phantom

So, you can see that by just avoiding killing Gifteds and getting good dreams, we can still have a possible win even if we're terrible at lynching.

And I think we have to assume that we are, since it'll be a while until we get any confirmation one way or the other, and even that won't be as concrete as I would feel comfortable with. I'm intrigued by your plan to tie the vote for the first Day at least. I am a little worried that we would wind up without any evidence to work off of the next Day, but we wouldn't have that solid of evidence even if we do lynch someone, right?

Then again, it seems to me that the best way to set the two packs against each other is simply to kill one wolf from either pack - then the pack which is down a member will by necessity switch its focus from the Gifteds to the other pack, since the only way for them to win would be to kill at least two members of the other pack. Whether or not the other pack switched focus, too - though I think they would soon enough - we would have a bit of a reprieve. Plus, to have two wolves actively and jointly targeting the others would be much more obvious than to have three wolves coasting in the background.

To get back to my point, I think probably we should take any chance we can to bag a wolf, since doing so would not only wittle down the pack numbers, but would also help turn the Night kills away from our Gifteds and towards the other pack. The question is, I guess, is it better statistically to have the chance to potentially turn the Night kills away from the Gifteds, or to avoid the risk that we ourselves might kill a Gifted by mistake? If we kill the Seer Day 1, we're in huge trouble, but I suppose they can still do some good in the Dead Thread. If we kill a wolf, we've gained a lot, and I might be hugely naive here, but I feel like they are less of a threat in the Dead Thread than in the Living Thread. So I would say that I personally think a Day 1 lynch is worth the risk, but that's kind of subjective, and I would definitely like to see other peoples' perspectives.

[Loslote]

Just to clarify, because in hindsight I realized I never did quote it, I was responding in my above post to this comment of the phantom's:

Originally Posted by the phantom

We purposefully tie the vote Day 1 and 2 so we don't lynch anyone.