Ten Year Anniversary Game: Living Thread

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Rune Son of Bjarne

I don't know if anybody used those words.

You want people to use intuition to vote intelligently?

Yes. Using a combination of reasoning and intuition is intelligent. I could add "experience" there as well.

Originally Posted by Rune

Is there any meaningful way in which using your intuition, differentiates from reacting to erratic behaviour?

Speaking for myself, it's the complete opposite. Erratic behavior rarely feels wolfish to me. Why do people vote the "odd" person on Day 1? Maybe it's easy and feels safe. Maybe inexperienced players really think "weird" means "wolf" when it's more often the opposite. I can't say. I've just watched too many "lynch-the-oddball" bandwagons, and when I've seen a successful day 1 lynch, it was generally something different: a wolf slip, someone being smooth but creepy, etc.

I'd encourage everyone to avoid voting people who always look suspicious, often get lynched on Day 1, etc. for now, for that reason. That's just good general Day 1 strategy and it applies to this game, too. Some people are known for false-positive wolf vibes early on.

Anyway, arguing over general werewolfing-theory like this is probably wasting everyone's time.

The real question is, wherever that 29% chance comes from - intuition, reasoning, the will of the gods - do we take it or not. As Nog (I think?) pointed out that our odds of getting a wolf (even based on chance alone) are better, and odds of getting a seer are smaller, than the wolves' odds of doing so.

Originally Posted by Form

Even so, we can't calculate OUR odds of lynching a wolf off what has actually happened in the past, any more than you can say the odds of flipping a coin Heads or Tails on a given toss is anything other than 50/50--even if the ACTUAL flipping has come up 52/48 in favour of Heads. Although the Day 1 lynch rate for wolves has certainly been historically better than utter chance would predict, it is nonetheless close to what chance predicts.

Yep, that's what Mac's confidence interval is good for. My best attempt at translating it is: our sample size is still so small that all we can say is that the actual chance is probably between 14% and 44%. So we don't actually know.
(Of course if you know ASOIAF, whenever people say "it is known", it usually isn't!)
However, you'll note the chance of lynching an innocent is higher than the chance of lynching a wolf, historically, until Day 7. Also, the odds on all the days before 7 fall into the confidence interval, meaning the odds might not even improve as the game goes on.

Like Greenie said, it's a feature of the entire game.