Tol-in-Guarhoth CIX - Ten Year Anniversary Game: Dead Thread [Archive] - Page 2

Rikae

06-05-2015, 09:51 PM

Considering that I'm dead...

It may be that my case against Lottie hit the mark. I actually thought Firefoot was the worse of the two at the time... yeah. *grumble*

Anyway I've been looking for Mac-pack in the living thread, and there isn't a whole lot to go on.

Pardon me if the following is sloppy... it's the Riesling.

Post 121, morm votes for Mac, early vote, " something in a number of the posts felt off"

131, Mac says of morm, "mormegil - I was originally going to put him under the radar, until I realized I was about to put morm under the radar. Can't be, especially since he did post a few times."
Says nothing about getting voted.

Trusts me, Firefoot, Nilp, Legate, Greenie
Nilp or Legate would be in a cozy place there among all those innocents.

Calls Agan, Rune & morm slightly suspicious.

post 168, Mac feels better about morm for the points he raises about Nog
Mac 188 "I don't really suspect morm anymore now, and I'd rather not vote for Rune. Nogrod made his way up my suspect list, but I feel quite unconfident about it.
Unless something unexpected happens, I will vote for Aganzir. "

Mac 281
"There's something odd going on in #247,248,250:
First, Sally suggests Rune might have been a wolf killed by the other wolves. I'm not following her reasoning really. Also, I don't think that's their priority yet.
Then Morm is all over it for this reason, which is ok, but also because she's "trying to make a case against a dead man". How else are we going to figure something out at this point before we get any evidence back from the dead?
Then Lottie is all over morm for being "weirdly defensive", making him highly suspicious. I get criticizing him, but that's too quick over too little.

...aaand then Greenie mentions the exact same thing, just more eloquently. Well, actually not the exact same thing, since I'm raising half an eyebrow at morm, too.
"

285, morm on Mac:
"Yes, and I've felt odd about Mac since early yesterday, hence my vote. Something feels very off. It seems a very forced attempt at being normal. Too much effort into it if that makes sense. To quote Frodo:

"Well, if he was one of the enemy, he would look fairer and...well, feel fouler, if you see what I mean."

He seems opposite to me, he's attempting to look fair but feels foul.
"
In 312, Mac's saying morm looks fine. He's suspecting "wolf-on-wolf people" (wrt Lommy/Agan): me, Form, nilp, Firefoot.

then he says never mind when I correct him (327).

350 morm votes for Mac again

352 Firefoot suspects Mac

378 Mac trusts me, Lommy, Lalaith, Eomer, Mith
puts morm, Nilp & Legate in "leaning innocent" (with McCaber, Boro, Greenie)
Suspects Agan, Sally, Lottie, Firefoot

"Reason tells me the case against Agan is clear, but my gut hesitates. I don't like any of the present alternatives, though, especially since one of those alternatives is me. "

384 Mac votes Agan
386 Nilp "And my vote make it six for

++Aganzir"

Edit: X'd with phantom

EDIT: my following post #253 at 12:05

http://forum.barrowdowns.com/ubb/icons/icon13.gif
Oh, and also:

I false-revealed as the seer in my first game and have tried my best to do so in every game since, regardless of role. I'm surprised no one seems to have noticed that yet.

I'm an ordo trying to troll for reactions. Well, either that, or someone whose role-pm got lost in the twisting nether. But enough of that nonsense, I don't want to waste too much precious time.

So... rejoice! The seer is still alive!

And personally, I'm more inclined to trust Mac now - which sucks. All the dead look innocentish to me (except maybe Legate). I just hope the real seer (and Boro looks like a reasonable candidate) has chosen to dream of some quiet ones instead of chatty now-corpses.

Macalaure

06-05-2015, 10:08 PM

Anyway I've been looking for Mac-pack in the living thread, and there isn't a whole lot to go on.I wonder why that might be. :rolleyes:

edit: oh, you.... :mad: :D

Macalaure

06-05-2015, 10:13 PM

*double-checks rules to make sure there are no cobblers in the game* ;)

Ok, this is perfectly in line with what an ordo-Rikae would do, so that makes me inclined to trust her.

Would a wolf-Rikae do, too? I think my dear old friend Riesling may have the answer. :smokin:

Rikae

06-05-2015, 10:16 PM

Oh man, so far it looks like the living are going to ask us to confirm Nog's role.

Hope they give us an option for Greenie... although knowing it won't do them a whole lot of good.

the phantom

06-05-2015, 10:17 PM

Ha ha ha ha! :D

Even if you're somehow evil you've won my loyalty regardless. I'm willing to lose if my opponent is entertaining.

the phantom

06-05-2015, 10:18 PM

Okay then... back to the drawing board...

the phantom

06-05-2015, 10:34 PM

I just hope the real seer (and Boro looks like a reasonable candidate) has chosen to dream of some quiet ones instead of chatty now-corpses.
Well, he just called Eomer "den-dweller", so... If he is the Seer, hopefully his other dream last night wasn't Mac. It'd be nice if he's paving the way for a reveal with two WWs in hand.

the phantom

06-06-2015, 01:17 AM

Did you see the latest developments on the Living thread? If Sally is seriously going to reveal and purposefully ask to get lynched, why don't we just flippin give up. Geez. I mean, she only gets to return to the living IF her Lover stays alive, and the Wolves will have FOUR shots at that lover (plus the following day's lynch). Why take that risk? Why give up the opportunity to lynch a Wolf to purposefully lynch a Gifted that is unlikely to gain you any benefit?!

A Little Green

06-06-2015, 01:20 AM

OK so now Sally pulled a Lover reveal and went to bed? Brilliant.

EDIT: x-ed with phancypants

the phantom

06-06-2015, 01:20 AM

Meh, I'm tired, and I don't feel like sticking with this thing at the moment. Hopefully when I return I'll find the village on a more sensible course.

A Little Green

06-06-2015, 01:22 AM

A Little Green

06-06-2015, 01:39 AM

Boo. Sorry Greenie.

However-

KNOWN INNOCENT HIGH FIVE o/I did tell you. :rolleyes: Still, I suppose being a known innocent makes a nice change.

IF you are innocent you need to give up the idea of testing me and just trust me.Wishful thinking, love. Not testing you for the time being? Sure. Trusting you? No way, barring a Seer reveal. ;)

Yeah, if Boro is the seer he's keeping very quiet about his dreams. Which makes sense considering how many times he stressed the seer's main asset is the number of dreams.I hadn't thought of that, but whether the Seer is Boro or someone else, they could be trusting that their dreams can be transmitted to the Living after they die via a Ranger or a Lover, and thus leave less hints than they normally would to avoid detection from two wolf packs on the lookout for them. It's risky that way, too, of course, and leaving a lot to chance, but it's a possibility.

Anyway, the only remark to what I've seen: sorry for probably making you waste your check-vote on Greenie (seems to me you did so because you thought I might be the Seer so she could be Wolf). For that matter, apologies Greenie for the suspicion, so you apparently were just enjoying yourself and being happy because of having lot of time to play, not because of being a Wolf. But all that said, still it's good because now we can be sure and all that. However, if we can choose (of course depending on what happens on the Living thread toDay), I really think you should have checked the phantom, and that's what I would put on the to-do list for the future.Erm... what? You were super convinced I was a wolf, and yet you think we should have checked phantom instead of me? Really?

Also do Mac count as a dead European?
Jawohl!Also, I adore you two. :D And Rikae? You are a troll and I adore you too. <3

I'm kind of hoping the Seer, whoever s/he is, will reveal toDay because the village is clueless (my condolences, it must be frustrating). But I mean - seriously considering the purposeful lynch of a Lover? Seriously?

Nogrod

06-06-2015, 04:07 AM

This isn't going very well... but it's fun nonetheless! :)

But really with two extra-kills and none avoided we're behind an already tight schedule with regards to our chances of really helping the Living. With 1/3 of people here and only two known innocents - and no known wolves - we're doing pretty bad.

Add to that the latest fact that we don't know who of last Night's kills was the special-role kill.

Haha. I know I was against an intentional tie on D1, but had I known this is where we get, well I might have thought differently. :(

If we have a lover or a ranger here now (who has stayed anonymous) or one is lynched toDay, we can send that person back on D4 (right? like if the gifted died during the Night s/he will remain here until the Day after the next and not return immediately?) with two names - to a Living village of (most probably) 12 players left.

If we're able to send info on D5, it will be three names to a village of (probably) only 9 left.

So I do hope the Seer is making this sort of calculations as the number of villagers really is dwindling pretty fast.

Optimistic opening for the Day from me, I can see.

I'll be back later with hopefully something more constructive to say.

Aganzir

06-06-2015, 04:32 AM

She says a lot including the comment that "I am not going there (the dead thread) alone" (my italic). To my mind that is as good a hint as you could get that she is the hunter and given that her death triggered Greenie's I think that is more likely than the special role the bear trap quote not withstanding.
Yaaay somebody noticed!

Nog, if sally (or another lover) is lynched today, she'll spend all of day 4 here and will be back among the living on day 5 - at least that's how I understood it. Unless they find her lover (although to be fair, sally hasn't said a whole lot about people, and knowing the speciality of their role, the lovers would be extra careful not to leave hints).

I hope she's not lynched but left to the wolves, though. That would tell us so much more - if neither pack attacks her, it would imply a member of each is here. Etc.

Legate of Amon Lanc

06-06-2015, 04:39 AM

I feel obliged to chime in here to say that you should not place that interpretation on it. Kills are always posted in the narrations in the order they either happen in the Living Thread or the names are turned in by the killers.

It is sequence of events, nothing more.

I just wrote it the way I did because it amused me.
Okay, that makes it clear (or doesn't actually, but yes in the case that I was also wondering whether I am here for some totally different reason and am especially marked there. Seems like not. So now it's up to what in the name of all is happening here).

*double-checks rules to make sure there are no cobblers in the game* ;)

Ok, this is perfectly in line with what an ordo-Rikae would do, so that makes me inclined to trust her.

Would a wolf-Rikae do, too? I think my dear old friend Riesling may have the answer.
You two are brilliant :D Just saying.

Did you see the latest developments on the Living thread? If Sally is seriously going to reveal and purposefully ask to get lynched, why don't we just flippin give up. Geez. I mean, she only gets to return to the living IF her Lover stays alive, and the Wolves will have FOUR shots at that lover (plus the following day's lynch). Why take that risk? Why give up the opportunity to lynch a Wolf to purposefully lynch a Gifted that is unlikely to gain you any benefit?!
I also assume that's your confession that you are totally definitely not any Lover after all ;)

Erm... what? You were super convinced I was a wolf, and yet you think we should have checked phantom instead of me? Really?
Well, not really really, since then I would keep thinking you are a Wolf (and half the Dead with me, at least). Maybe that was bad phrasing, but I meant it mostly that checking the phantom is among one of the first things I would have done, and would suggest to do it in the future.

Although now, of course I started thinking about checking one of our other two newcomers... meh. I liked the way Rikae tried to stir things up here, just thinking about Mac's reaction to that. Btw I totally hope those two are not Wolves together and this was an ad-hoc performance for our entertainment, that would kill me. (Oops... sorry, forgot I am already dead.)

But if I go with common sense (or plain impression, rather), I would be ok with thinking Rikae innocent and Mac's reaction to her reveal nothing horrible either. But then we are back to the question: whom should we check? And since some have mentioned it, in regards to checking me, obviously I'll tell you it's a waste, I'm totally normal innocent.

In any case, for that, let's consider if we get anything out of checking a person besides their own role. (As in, connections...)

But we don't get to do it until the Night, right? And now we should think about empowering somebody on the Living thread, or whatnot? (Gotta go reread that thread, didn't have chance to do it yet, just woke up. Yeah...)

I'm kind of hoping the Seer, whoever s/he is, will reveal toDay because the village is clueless (my condolences, it must be frustrating). But I mean - seriously considering the purposeful lynch of a Lover? Seriously?
Exactly, it should happen, because the Wolves would totally kill the Seer toDay, I mean the chances are ridiculously high at this point. So let's hope.

Nogrod

06-06-2015, 04:53 AM

Nog, if sally (or another lover) is lynched today, she'll spend all of day 4 here and will be back among the living on day 5 - at least that's how I understood it.That much is obvious. I was uncertain about a situation where the lover / ranger is killed by Night, not when s/he is lynched by Day

Lynched gifted stays here one Night (24 hours) and goes back for the next Day. Simple. But if the gifted is Night-killed, will s/he then reside here 1Day + 1Night (48 hours) or will s/he be thrown into some kind of a limbo for the Night (to be here only 24 hours)?

Aganzir

06-06-2015, 04:57 AM

That much is obvious. I was uncertain about a situation where the lover / ranger is killed by Night, not when s/he is lynched by Day

Lynched gifted stays here one Night (24 hours) and goes back for the next Day. Simple. But if the gifted is Night-killed, will s/he then reside here 1Day + 1Night (48 hours) or will s/he be thrown into some kind of a limbo for the Night (to be here only 24 hours)?
Whoops, sorry. Yeah, that's how I understood it - one day cycle meaning at least 48 hours. If she came back at the beginning of the night, the wolves could just finish her off again.

Legate of Amon Lanc

06-06-2015, 04:58 AM

Hm, total chaos there in the Living thread. The biggest problem is, I am afraid even if they come up with some "pass us info via extra vote"-scheme, they will totally say something like "okay, if Nogrod was innocent, give vote to X, if he was not, give vote to Y", and then we are like "great, we didn't actually check Nogrod, you know"...

Anyway, this lynching of lover is total madness. Especially since if they are lynched (as opposed to killed), now it's been confirmed the remaining lover has to survive one phase longer. (For what it's worth, it makes me think Eomer is like totally evil for suggesting that ridiculousness in the first place, and Firefoot is innocent because she's been posting deeply sensible stuff today.)

So that said...
That much is obvious. I was uncertain about a situation where the lover / ranger is killed by Night, not when s/he is lynched by Day

Lynched gifted stays here one Night (24 hours) and goes back for the next Day. Simple. But if the gifted is Night-killed, will s/he then reside here 1Day + 1Night (48 hours) or will s/he be thrown into some kind of a limbo for the Night (to be here only 24 hours)?
So as I said, Kuru just confirmed that she comes back Morning in any case, if I am not mistaken. I would assume she'd join us as soon as she dies, so if she is lynched, she will be with us for the Night, and thus spend Night, Day, Night with us and then go back. If her Lover survives three phases. They are all mad.

Legate of Amon Lanc

06-06-2015, 05:02 AM

Adding this as reference to what I just said:

Say a lover is lynched toDay. Her beloved must survive the Night, the next Day, and the next Night as well in order for her to return? Is that correct?Yes.

Nogrod

06-06-2015, 05:05 AM

If she came back at the beginning of the night, the wolves could just finish her off again.Obviously. therefore I was wondering about some kind of a limbo... :)

But yes, it sounds more practical that a Night killed visiting-gifted just stays here longer than a Day-lynched one.

Nogrod

06-06-2015, 05:08 AM

Just a minute - seeing Legate's Kuru-quote...

Nogrod

06-06-2015, 05:12 AM

So no-one goes back to the Living Thread in 24 hours aka. spending only one "shift" here?

That's actually even worse I thought. Totally freakishly slow looking at the situation we're in.

So a Night-killed spends 48 hours here (D+N), but a Day-lynched spends 72 hours (N+D+N)!

Legate of Amon Lanc

06-06-2015, 05:16 AM

Aganzir

06-06-2015, 05:23 AM

First: Sorry to Agan! :-( I really did think you slipped, and then you acted the same way that I felt when I slipped some time ago.
It's okay! I was suspicious of your insistence at first, but then going along with it seemed less and less important because your gleefulness seemed so genuine (unlike Lommy's who was all "GOTCHA you're so dumb haa haa haa"). Still, I'm super careful when I'm a wolf.

I also think Mac's reaction to Rikae's fake reveal makes him look good. It would take a lot of self control for a wolf not to do a little dance in Schadenfreude if he had reason to believe the seer had died with only one wolf.

You know what makes me laugh though? If Kuru hadn't changed the "Hunter picks her kill each NIGHT" rule to include DAYs as well, I would've hunted sally on DAY 1. And if I'd been lynched, the only information she could have brought back would've been... pretty much the only two people whose roles can be proven in this game anyway (okay okay there would've been somebody on NIGHT 3 but still).

I'm wondering - if Legate was killed as a presumed seer, the pack must have assumed Greenie was in the rivalling pack. Would they kill somebody based on that assumption, or leave it to the pack suspected by the "seer"?

It's very easy for the wolves to hide behind the "please check this person and let us know" agenda. If they can convince us to check ordos, or make it so difficult for us to vote without risking giving them wrong information, they will effectively impair our ability to influence the lynch. Especially this in Lottie's #445 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=697859&postcount=445) was, well-meaning or not, very low-risk for the wolves:
We have fifteen Living and eight Dead. Couldn't we just assign two Living players to each Dead player, one to be given an extra vote in the case that their assigned Dead player was revealed to be predator and the other to be given an extra vote if that player was revealed to be prey? Since we have one too few Living toDay, we can assign the last possible result to the case that there is no extra vote granted, since the Dead have tied their vote. That way the Dead don't have to wait for us to vote, and we can receive their message loud and clear no matter how the voting goes down on our side.

Nogrod

06-06-2015, 05:24 AM

Yeah, if it's that way, the game will be over by the time they go back. (If they do.)Yes. Well almost.

Quick counting with average ratios of dead...

lover lynched D4 - goes back D6 (if goes back): the tally then 6 villagers left - add the lover (7 villagers left) and it's still a game if there are not more than three wolves living at the time...

Blah.

Nogrod

06-06-2015, 05:28 AM

It's very easy for the wolves to hide behind the "please check this person and let us know" agenda. If they can convince us to check ordos, or make it so difficult for us to vote without risking giving them wrong information, they will effectively impair our ability to influence the lynch.So you're slowly understanding why I was against this kind of complicated deals for information-sharing as both tying our hands and possibly misleading rather than helping the goodies while giving ample stuff for the wolves to toy with?

Aganzir

06-06-2015, 05:32 AM

Well, he just called Eomer "den-dweller", so... If he is the Seer, hopefully his other dream last night wasn't Mac. It'd be nice if he's paving the way for a reveal with two WWs in hand.
Earlier, he called you strategy-maker and Mac number-cruncher. I don't know if the hyphenated pet names mean anything but it's something I noticed.

So you're slowly understanding why I was against this kind of complicated deals for information-sharing as both tying our hands and possibly misleading rather than helping the goodies while giving ample stuff for the wolves to toy with?
Noggins dearie, I understood why you were against it. But there are still advantages to it, one of them right now being - if you're innocent - scrutinising people who loudly advocate checking you.

Aganzir

06-06-2015, 05:39 AM

Oh, they’re having a party there, by the look of things. Every time I go back to the main page it show a different corpse has just posted.
https://33.media.tumblr.com/c8e2543c09800e5ceffae89e54db77c0/tumblr_mgjfgeonfB1r6iqbdo1_500.gif

Meawhile in the living thread:
http://i3.photobucket.com/albums/y62/Aganzir/truthordare_zpsypgppxui.gif

Lommy, I’ve been asking what people think of various people. What do you think of Nilp? And Lottie? I have a particular reason for wanting to know.
Hmm what's this? Is she preparing to reveal as something?

Aganzir

06-06-2015, 06:52 AM

Why do people think I thought Legate was the seer? I voted for Greenie rather than Mac because I thought Rikae was the seer. :Merisu: (Well not really but I wasn't going to chance it.)

A Little Green

06-06-2015, 07:27 AM

Hmm what's this? Is she preparing to reveal as something? It looks like that! I really hope she's the Seer and has some wolfsies, and is asking for opinions on them before revealing their identities to catch some packmates. Might be wishful thinking though!

Why do people think I thought Legate was the seer? I voted for Greenie rather than Mac because I thought Rikae was the seer. (Well not really but I wasn't going to chance it.)Even more interestingly, they seem to think that I have to be a wolf because I was killed by the Hunter. :rolleyes:

Aganzir

06-06-2015, 07:28 AM

It looks like that! I really hope she's the Seer and has some wolfsies, and is asking for opinions on them before revealing their identities to catch some packmates. Might be wishful thinking though!
Could also be an ordo fishing for reactions. If the wolves think she's the seer who has some of them, it might make them backtrack quickly.

Even more interestingly, they seem to think that I have to be a wolf because I was killed by the Hunter. :rolleyes:
Yeah because a gifted is never wrong. :smokin:

A Little Green

06-06-2015, 07:53 AM

Could also be an ordo fishing for reactions. If the wolves think she's the seer who has some of them, it might make them backtrack quickly. That's why I said "wishful thinking" :rolleyes:

Macalaure

06-06-2015, 08:56 AM

I don't think the living are going to go along with Sally's suggestion. Unless she's faking it, which I highly doubt, they'll at least have a known innocent.

If Sally's lover is smart s/he will drop some seer-ish hints and be Night killed. The ranger would then have to assure that Sally survives the next Night.

Aganzir

06-06-2015, 09:18 AM

So if we went by Firefoot's plan (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=697939&postcount=493), we'd have to empower Nilp or Shasta today. I am NOT comfortable with Nilp. His question about the lovers' orientation looked fishy. As for Shasta, my gut is saying he's okay right now (I was uneasy about him on DAY 1 though), but there's always what the phantom pointed out earlier:
Now Boro listed Rikae, Shasta, Lommy, and Legate as his innocent group of four yesterday. Why wasn't he suspected of being the Seer and killed? Because he had a Wolf from each pack listed as innocent? That would certainly take him off the kill list. Or if he himself is in a pack and listed a Wolf (or two) from another pack.

Aganzir

06-06-2015, 09:22 AM

Do you think sally and Nerwen could be lovers? If Nerwen is thinking of doing a fake seer reveal, the wolves would probably focus on her, and no matter who the ranger picks at least one of them would survive. Obviously this plan has a lot of holes and risks, but it's... not impossible?

Aganzir

06-06-2015, 09:26 AM

In any case, I read through Nerwen's posts, and if she is the seer, she's hiding it better than Boro. She's barely said anything specific about anyone. Which, in this game, would make sense. But I don't know.

Looking forward to seeing how this will unfold. :smokin:

A Little Green

06-06-2015, 09:45 AM

Nilp or Shasta? I'm not super happy about either of those, to be honest. Nilp I can't read at all, and Shasta, while making sense, creeps me out. He feels innocent the way he does when he's a wolf, if you follow me. :p

Aganzir

06-06-2015, 09:55 AM

Yeah, I'm not going to empower either unless they vote for somebody super suspicious. If we're going to give the village false information though, it had better be about somebody being innocent even if we haven't checked them - especially if a lover will come round shortly to clear it up.

Let's hope if they give us an option for not communicating information.

I'm not sure what to think of Firefoot's suggestion in the first place. Could be she's an innocent who hasn't thought through the fact that we may be suspicious of the people we are supposed to vote for, or it could be a wolfish ploy to empower votes against a non-fellow. That would require a lot of planning though, especially if she took the names pretty much in the same order as they're on the player list.

the phantom

06-06-2015, 10:02 AM

Don't have time to more than skim at the moment. Has anyone living or dead pointed out yet that (as I mentioned much earlier) Sally dropped a Lover hint in her very first post of the game and directed it at Nilp?

How likely do you think it is that she put down a false hint on purpose hoping she could get the packs to attack the wrong person? But of course it wouldn't take them long to figure that out, particularly if one of the packs includes Nilp.

Anyway, rather busy at the moment...

Aganzir

06-06-2015, 10:14 AM

Don't have time to more than skim at the moment. Has anyone living or dead pointed out yet that (as I mentioned much earlier) Sally dropped a Lover hint in her very first post of the game and directed it at Nilp?
Not sure. It could be a hint, but it could also be just sally and Nilp's mutual history. I doubt she'd leave an actual hint when she knew the rules and knew they'd have to keep quiet if they were to fill their role.

Legate of Amon Lanc

06-06-2015, 10:33 AM

Not sure. It could be a hint, but it could also be just sally and Nilp's mutual history. I doubt she'd leave an actual hint when she knew the rules and knew they'd have to keep quiet if they were to fill their role.

Do they have any mutual history?

...in-game, I mean. Given that Nilp hasn't been playing for ages and sally was one of the "newer" generation of players (she joined after me, and I joined ages after Nilp had already disappeared from most games - he played a couple of times since then, though, in some bigger ones, I guess).

Anyway, I think the idea of going with Firefoot's list might not be that bad. Of course unless the person in question votes somebody totally off and we don't want to empower that kind of behavior.

Aganzir

06-06-2015, 10:38 AM

Well, given that sally and I started werewolfing around the same time, I've played with Nilp more than once, and sally has played in more games than me, I'm quite sure they have a mutual history.

In any case, let's see what Nerwen says and who Nilp and Shasta vote for before doing anything. And sadly as we don't know your role, Legate, we can't have absolute trust in your honest intentions regarding this vote.

Conclusion: you should just listen to Greenie and me. :smokin:

Rikae

06-06-2015, 10:51 AM

Empowering Shasta or Nilp doesn't mean we trust Shasta or Nilp.

I hope the living abide by the plan of getting their voting out of the way early, so we know how/whether we're influencing the lynch, but unless someone up there decides to change the signals, I will vote for either Nilp or Shasta.

Barring some scenario where, oh, doing so would lynch the seer.

After all, it's not like we have much more information than the living do, at this point. Giving our vote to someone simply because we trust them, and thereby giving false information, when we don't know when/whether anyone is going to visit and straighten things out? No, I won't condone that.

So, Nilp or Shasta it is - and which, for me, depends on how they vote.

I'd actually suggest that those who leave early split their votes between the two, so that the USA can heroically vote at DL having seen Nilp's and Shasta's votes first, but of course that requires ya'all to trust us Americans when we could, after all, all be wolves. It's up to you.

Aganzir

06-06-2015, 10:52 AM

Okay, I have to go and it's possible I won't be able to get back online later, so I guess I can't sit on this any longer. I said I had a particular reason for wanting to hear everyone's opinion's of everyone else, and here it is:

I received a pm telling me that the Seer had dreamed two wolves, Macalaure and Lottie.

It was *not* explained to me why I was being sent this interesting communication, nor can I find anything about it in the rules. Maybe this is a once-off thing (on the Seer's death?), or maybe a different person has been sent dreams each Night. Maybe the Dead are involved, or the mystery role. I honestly have no idea.

I realise I have no way of backing any of this up, and am asking you all to take my word for it, but I do think there's decent circumstantial evidence against both Lottie and Mac.
Wooooooow what's this

Macalaure

06-06-2015, 10:58 AM

Rikae

06-06-2015, 10:59 AM

Crossed with Nerwen, obviously...

Well, I can believe a Lottie-wolf, and Mac is certainly not off the menu.

But... such a message would presumably come from the dead, and it obviously doesn't.

Maybe it's some kind of... yeah, palantir-related, evesdropping sort of role.

The thing is, the seer is alive and knows if Nerwen is full of it or not.

Rikae

06-06-2015, 11:00 AM

I thought Firefoot just made up her assignments as an example.

It's way too early. It has to be done near the end, when at least almost all the votes are cast. What if Shasta and Nilp decide to vote for the same person?

Could be, but it also could be that no one changes them. If it's the best thing we've got to communicate with, I intend to use it.

Macalaure

06-06-2015, 11:00 AM

I thought there was only one secret role.

Now we have an assassin and one who can deliver seer dreams?

Something is not adding up here.

Aganzir

06-06-2015, 11:03 AM

Options:

Everything happened just as Nerwen said, and it's something to do with the mystery role.
Nerwen is a clever seer who dreamed Mac and Lottie wolves.
If either of these is true, Mac reacted waaay more coolly to Rikae's reveal than I would've expected. Which kind of makes me wonder if they were wolves in the same pack and Rikae used their death to their advantage.
Nerwen is a wolf. But what would she gain from doing this? Get the seer to reveal? I need to do some math.
Nerwen is the other lover.

Need to go now but will keep checking the thread as well as I can.

Macalaure

06-06-2015, 11:07 AM

1. This possible. Though in that case Kuru is leaving us in the dark about so many things... unclear narrations, tons of mystery stuff. Why would he give Nerwen wrong information?
2. I don't think so. Each pack is going to suspect that Lottie and me are wolves from the other pack. She has a target on her back now, this way or another.
3. I agree, hard to believe.
4. This is very possible.

Rikae

06-06-2015, 11:09 AM

Or she could be gambling.

It does seem entirely possible I'm here because Lottie is a wolf, and, if so, it's plausible that I'm the seer, and Mac's role is unknown.

Maybe Nerwen wants to bus Lottie? Would that make sense?

Even if she was very sure Mac was in the other pack, she'd be losing her pack's advantage over them, but she could see Lottie as a lost cause (if I'm so very seerish) and want to distance herself.

Or is she trying to protect the seer? Or force the seer to reveal?

Edit: X'd with Agan & Mac

Macalaure

06-06-2015, 11:12 AM

Why would he give Nerwen wrong information?
Wait, I got that wrong. According to Nerwen's claim, Kuru only relayed information to her from someone else. So if she is correct, then that other person is passing on incorrect information. I don't even want start guessing what's behind that.

Rikae

06-06-2015, 11:14 AM

Of course, the other lover looking to be night-killed.

Sally did mention they were plotting, and Nerwen seemed to be positioning herself to look seerish.

The thing about that, though, is that she is risking flushing out the seer (although at this point that might not be a bad idea). It could make sense if she believes the seer is most likely dead, or onto her plan.

A Little Green

06-06-2015, 11:15 AM

What the actual ??? For now I'm leaning towards thinking Nerwen is telling the truth - am I the only one who thinks making up something like that would be a pretty unsporting thing to do? Unless of course she's the Seer herself and tries in this way to avoid getting butchered next Night.

Conclusion: you should just listen to Greenie and me. :smokin:Yes, because you've already set such a great example of how innocents can't be wrong. *cough*

Rikae

06-06-2015, 11:24 AM

Well, I feel stupid for trusting Mac, anyway.

If Nerwen does get night-killed she can tell us if she was gambling or not (and if she's resurrected we'll know we can believe her). Much as I'd like to scry Mac, it might end up being redundant.

the phantom

06-06-2015, 11:34 AM

Yeah, it could be she's just the Seer and is trying to avoid the Night kill, but at the same time it might encourage the Ranger not to protect her.

A Little Green

06-06-2015, 11:51 AM

If Nerwen does get night-killed she can tell us if she was gambling or not (and if she's resurrected we'll know we can believe her). Much as I'd like to scry Mac, it might end up being redundant. I agree. I guess we'll have to wait and see who they end up lynching, although barring further reveals (nothing will surprise me at this point) they'd be a bit foolish not to go for Lottie.

As for Nerwen being Sally's lover - I guess it's possible (was this the plan Sally was talking about?) but I'm not sure why Sally would reveal as a lover and Nerwen come forward with that information right after. The lovers can PM also during the Day (right?) and so if Nerwen is a lover I'm guessing she would have told her lover about it first. And I don't know, having both of them come forward in that way, right after each other, seems awfully risky to me. Unless there's some obvious tactical advantage I'm missing?

Also, what's with Sally's conviction that Rune was killed for looking like a rival wolf? Now I'm supposed to have wanted to kill him for whatever reason, and that's why Agan shifted her pick to me? Wow. I hope this is a part of whatever plot she's hatching with her lover because otherwise it doesn't make any sense.

Rikae

06-06-2015, 11:56 AM

As for Nerwen being Sally's lover - I guess it's possible (was this the plan Sally was talking about?) but I'm not sure why Sally would reveal as a lover and Nerwen come forward with that information right after. The lovers can PM also during the Day (right?) and so if Nerwen is a lover I'm guessing she would have told her lover about it first. And I don't know, having both of them come forward in that way, right after each other, seems awfully risky to me. Unless there's some obvious tactical advantage I'm missing?

All I can think of is that if Nerwen gets killed toNight, Sally can be ranger-protected the following night so that Nerwen can return.

Nogrod

06-06-2015, 11:56 AM

Only catching up - and I can see things are happening - but just can't resist poking at this one more time...

Let's hope if they give us an option for not communicating information.*Ahem* Without this grandiose plan someone suggested and many supported there wouldn't be this problem. We could have just said: nonsense plan, let's forget it - and had it much easier now.

On the contrary I got lynched on D1 for saying that aloud and we're in this mess with how the village will interpret anything we do. :rolleyes:

Legate of Amon Lanc

06-06-2015, 11:57 AM

I thought there was only one secret role.

Now we have an assassin and one who can deliver seer dreams?

Something is not adding up here.
Actually, personally now thinking about it, it would make sense. Remember how the three of us randomly died, while common sense would expect two people dying? What if we have a "shapeshifter" role who, say, one Night kills a person, one night dreams a person, you know what? (Although to be honest it would still require a lot of over-combining to have a role which dreams two people and then passes the info to somebody else. Then again... actually why not? Because, say that your role says "you can dream 2 people" - that being fairly powerful - "but you have to tell this to somebody else" - i.e. to share it with a random person who, potentially, could be a Wolf??? And then again, the only way that would make sense would be if the info came through from the dead - because otherwise the person could just say it aloud herself... anyone has anything to say about this?)

The options you folks mentioned up here seem a bit more plausible (such as the lover trying to get herself killed-thing)... But who knows. Then again Kuru originally considered to put into the game this kind of "speaker to the dead"-role... this would feel kinda similar.

What the actual ??? For now I'm leaning towards thinking Nerwen is telling the truth - am I the only one who thinks making up something like that would be a pretty unsporting thing to do?

If you ask me, sporty or not, it actually would be a very Nerwen-y thing to do. But I am not inclined to disbelieve her.

Though also in this game, she could be also just trying to freak the wolves out: there is fairly high percentual chance she'd name at least one Wolf correctly, and the Wolf could think the other person she named is from the opposite pack.

A Little Green

06-06-2015, 12:02 PM

Though also in this game, she could be also just trying to freak the wolves out: there is fairly high percentual chance she'd name at least one Wolf correctly, and the Wolf could think the other person she named is from the opposite pack. That would be a rather risky strategy though - what if she named the real Seer, for instance? I don't think an ordo Nerwen would do that just to freak the wolves out.

Legate of Amon Lanc

06-06-2015, 12:07 PM

That would be a rather risky strategy though - what if she named the real Seer, for instance? I don't think an ordo Nerwen would do that just to freak the wolves out.

Point taken. Well, hard to say.

Btw: not that I can do much with that, being dead, but after just reading the Living thread, if Eomer is not a Wolf, I am going to eat my socks. (*ahem* ... I know the danger this entails.) He is so fishy that Gollum would go all crazy over him.

Anyway, as for the things that we can do, I see no problem in going according to the Firefoot-list and empowering either shasta or Nilp (from my perspective, preferably shasta).

Nogrod

06-06-2015, 12:10 PM

Rikae

06-06-2015, 12:12 PM

*Ahem* Without this grandiose plan someone suggested and many supported there wouldn't be this problem. We could have just said: nonsense plan, let's forget it - and had it much easier now.

And had absolutely no way to communicate to the living that Greenie was innocent, which could be crucial information (look at how people there are assuming she was a wolf and Legate - who may well be a wolf - was the seer!)

And what do we lose now? Most likely the living will overwhelmingly vote for Lottie. Our empowered vote won't have any impact on that, nor do we have any special knowledge about the living to convey. At least this way, we can accomplish something.

Legate of Amon Lanc

06-06-2015, 12:13 PM

Looking at all the complexities of the game - and how kind of rough (read:impossible) the setting has been to the innocents - I'm not actually surprised from anything strange happening, or that even one odd turn of events would be favouring innocents for a change.

Exactly my thoughts. If nothing else, it would counterbalance the three kills last Night (okay, even if there is the possibility some of the three of us might have been Wolves, but still, the more dead, the worse for the village in general).

Aaaand I see now quite a few of the Living started voting. I see no problem with doing it the way they are doing it now. So after shasta or Nilp vote, if the vote is reasonable, I see no problem with voting for them as well.

Also for the record, I like Mith, she does not post much, but now her latter posts show she's got all her wits very well together...

Legate of Amon Lanc

06-06-2015, 12:17 PM

And had absolutely no way to communicate to the living that Greenie was innocent, which could be crucial information (look at how people there are assuming she was a wolf and Legate - who may well be a wolf - was the seer!)
Yeah, I hope they will drop it - that's why I just mentioned Mith, because she seemed to notice some things that don't make sense if I was the Seer. But I think it's fine, because at least they do not seem to base their votes on my lists. (Maybe good I didn't list anyone except Greenie in the red zone.)

And what do we lose now? Most likely the living will overwhelmingly vote for Lottie. Our empowered vote won't have any impact on that, nor do we have any special knowledge about the living to convey. At least this way, we can accomplish something.

Totally. One thing we should keep in mind: however much fun we are having here, and even if we discover the roles of everyone, it is the Living that matters. Once there are, say, 3 wolves and 3 villagers left, even if we know the roles of everybody on this thread, it's not worth anything to the village. So there. (And as for voting Lottie, that seems just like what they are doing... so far.)

the phantom

06-06-2015, 12:20 PM

Not able to keep up with things this afternoon. Has anyone other than Firefoot attempted to update/refine her Dead communication post earlier? (The one that had us giving our vote to Nilp or Shasta to signal Green innocent.)

Legate of Amon Lanc

06-06-2015, 12:23 PM

Nogrod

06-06-2015, 12:26 PM

Most likely the living will overwhelmingly vote for Lottie. Our empowered vote won't have any impact on that, nor do we have any special knowledge about the living to convey. At least this way, we can accomplish something.Haven't yet reached the Living Thread that far, but that being the case, I'm ready to take my words (or intentions) back (I was actually going to say I'm totally going to be out of this madness and will not be giving my vote for extra-powers to someone I distrust or who is voting someone I trust).

It seems, after all, a situation where our vote hasn't any power. So yes, I agree, if it is going to be this kind of unanimous bandwagon.

Nogrod

06-06-2015, 12:30 PM

So yes, I agree, if it is going to be this kind of unanimous bandwagon.Add: and there are reasonable grounds to believe the living will interpret our extra-vote to Nilp or Shasta (I don't trust either a bit) really meaning that Greenie is innocent - and only that.

Legate of Amon Lanc

06-06-2015, 12:31 PM

It seems, after all, a situation where our vote hasn't any power. So yes, I agree, if it is going to be this kind of unanimous bandwagon.

Well, it isn't clear yet. Like three people voted, but now Eomer is disputing that, and wanting to do a counter-bandwagon. And you have experienced on your own skin how it is still possible to get total turnover at any point in this game... there are still many left to vote. I guess we'll see in a while.

Legate of Amon Lanc

06-06-2015, 12:32 PM

Add: and there are reasonable grounds to believe the living will interpret our extra-vote to Nilp or Shasta (I don't trust either a bit) really meaning that Greenie is innocent - and only that.

Don't see why they should interpret it as anything else. Granted, FF's post is fairly random, but I don't understand what else should they think. Both Nilp and Shasta are fairly random players, too (i.e. they haven't been the talk of the day etc.)

Nogrod

06-06-2015, 12:33 PM

Well, it isn't clear yet.
...
And you have experienced on your own skin how it is still possible to get total turnover at any point in this game...Therefore I said "IF it is going to be this kind of unanimous bandwagon". :)

A Little Green

06-06-2015, 12:49 PM

Nerwen has already voted for Loslote. We could test the theory by lynching someone else today? Or is that stupid? I am becoming increasingly curious about what this guy is up to.

Nogrod

06-06-2015, 12:57 PM

I'm not going to make any trouble with this any more toDay if the bandwagon is clear, but I am asking how much can we trust in them reading it right?

Nerwen says in her second last post: If we all (or most of us) vote for Lottie it might actually be possible to follow Nilp's suggestion (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=697814&postcount=424) for how to arrange the bonus votes. I'llhave to leave organising this to the rest of you, as I'm running out of time and it's very late, or rather early, here.And she doesn't even mention Firefoot's elaboration (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=697939&postcount=493) at all - and no ne else has paid any attention to it either... but us here in the Dead Thread. :rolleyes:

So if there is fex. a rivalling suggestion as to how to send information (a well-wishing person decides to make it as s/he has lost Firefoot's suggestion like Nerwen clearly did), which one do we choose to follow then?

Nogrod

06-06-2015, 12:58 PM

I am becoming increasingly curious about what this guy is up to.My thoughts as well...

Legate of Amon Lanc

06-06-2015, 01:13 PM

I'm not going to make any trouble with this any more toDay if the bandwagon is clear, but I am asking how much can we trust in them reading it right?

Nerwen says in her second last post: And she doesn't even mention Firefoot's elaboration (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=697939&postcount=493) at all - and no ne else has paid any attention to it either... but us here in the Dead Thread. :rolleyes:

So if there is fex. a rivalling suggestion as to how to send information (a well-wishing person decides to make it as s/he has lost Firefoot's suggestion like Nerwen clearly did), which one do we choose to follow then?

Well, I hope they will now follow this, since FF just brought it up again:
Also does anyone have any thoughts on the voting schema for guiding the Dead vote that I posted? Especially if it ends up being a landslide vote today, the Dead aren't going to be influencing it anyway, so it would be good to get some information from their vote if possible. Seems like we should figure it out sort of soon, too, before they start voting en masse.

Nogrod

06-06-2015, 01:16 PM

Well, I hope they will now follow this, since FF just brought it up again:Good of her. At least she is trying in the actual moment of clear need - and that speaks good of her (unlike coming up with abstract schemes beforehand without knowing if they're helpful or not or whether they hinder our best interests or not ;))

the phantom

06-06-2015, 01:23 PM

Good of her. At least she is trying in the actual moment of clear need - and that speaks good of her (unlike coming up with abstract schemes beforehand without knowing if they're helpful or not or whether they hinder our best interests or not )
The scheme was clearly helpful and not at all abstract. If everyone had simply been willing to rationally recognize the benefits and say, "Okay, we're doing this," then there would've no longer been any fears about how it might be misused or worries about people not being clear enough etc. etc.

Any fogginess was purely the result of people needlessly refusing to hop on board from the outset.

Legate of Amon Lanc

06-06-2015, 01:28 PM

Ha, have you folks just seen Lottie's post on the thread? Either she's completely lost it, poor Wolf (wait till she learns I wasn't the Seer), or she is pulling some totally elaborate scheme (not likely?). Unless we have a total Cobbler in her.
My pack killed Rune and Legate (I would like to take the credit for figuring out that Legate was likely the Seer, thank you, I was pretty pleased with that. Can't believe he got the info out anyway)
Echoing her, "I would like to take the credit for totally making her think I was the Seer, thank you, I am pretty pleased with that."

The only nagging question is: really. Why would she tell the villagers the extra info: that is, the info of whom did her pack kill and whom did the other pack kill? Why give the village extra weapons? What do you think?

Nogrod

06-06-2015, 01:29 PM

This (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=698022&postcount=529) is actually pretty precious - even if my first thought was whether there is a cobbler after all - but probably not.

It will be interesting to think about those kill choices she "confesses" as to whether they could actually hold and/or can we draw any conclusions from them.

the phantom

06-06-2015, 01:32 PM

Can't wait to comb through Lottie's post later. Doubtless there will be truth mixed with fiction, as she's probably been plotting this ever since she was outed...

I'm glad she didn't go quietly. Whether her tactic works or not, she's certainly made things more fun. :)

(edit: & Vidal is a moron, he's begged to get his second yellow a couple times now)

Nogrod

06-06-2015, 01:34 PM

Any fogginess was purely the result of people needlessly refusing to hop on board from the outset.LEt's discuss this post-game the next, shall we? (I admit, I kept nagging on it, sure, couldn't help myself because I'm right :), but let's drop it until after the game?)

Nogrod

06-06-2015, 01:36 PM

(edit: & Vidal is a moron, he's begged to get his second yellow a couple times now)Thanks for reminding me. I had totally forgotten the game is already on! :( *goes to see it*

Aganzir

06-06-2015, 01:46 PM

Can we have a pack containing Lottie and Eomer?

I wouldn't automatically dismiss the possibility that Nerwen is a lover who made a lucky guess, but Lottie's role is so clear that I think checking Mac tonight will be a good idea nonetheless.

the phantom

06-06-2015, 01:48 PM

Can we have a pack containing Lottie and Eomer?
Of course I could be wrong (we don't know that much at this point), but I've had those two together in all my theoretical packs.

Firefoot could be a Wolf. Or Lottie could be painting her as a Wolf because she wants her pack to kill her but does not want the Ranger to protect her (i.e. she actually suspects her of being the Seer & the Legate-Seer thing is a clever ruse).

A Little Green

06-06-2015, 01:50 PM

My, my. This is getting interesting. Certainly, Lottie's confession makes it more likely that a) Nerwen is telling the truth and b) Mac is thus a wolf too.

A Little Green

06-06-2015, 01:52 PM

Can we have a pack containing Lottie and Eomer?Well, Eomer was certainly trying to steer the lynch away from her.

Aganzir

06-06-2015, 01:56 PM

Well Legate, she'll find out you were not the seer as soon as we empower Nilp or Shasta. ;)

Also, regarding my idea for the Dead Thread Summary, I think it can wait until end of NIGHT. After all, we don't want to make a wolf's stay here any easier. ;)

The only nagging question is: really. Why would she tell the villagers the extra info: that is, the info of whom did her pack kill and whom did the other pack kill? Why give the village extra weapons? What do you think?
Mac is dead and whether he's actually a wolf or not, she thinks so and figured Firefoot's death would put her pack in the lead. It's worth sharing their kill, I feel, especially if they don't implicate anyone in particular.

Although it makes me wonder - presumably Lottie's pack killed Rune and Legate, thinking the latter was the seer. Greenie was the only person whom Legate's death implicated. Meanwhile Mac and Firefoot's supposed pack killed phantom and Rikae, and while the former makes sense, Rikae died with Lottie as her apparent top suspect (although maybe Firefoot got scared of her, as would just be expected).

Okay I am getting yelled at for werewolfing so exit Agan.

Nogrod

06-06-2015, 01:57 PM

One thing I might say (having just spent a little thought of Lottie's rant while the half-time of the match).

We might believe that Lottie actually thought that Firefoot is a wolf for there certainly is rivalry between the packs and they do not want to go even one down to the other pack. So it would be reasonable to give the village the hint if you had a clue in a situation you knew you were a goner.

But was she correct in thinking Firefoot a wolf (or that Mac is for that matter)?

Or is there a scheme she could be pulling off?

EDIT: Aha... it seems this was already under discussion...

A Little Green

06-06-2015, 02:09 PM

But was she correct in thinking Firefoot a wolf (or that Mac is for that matter)?Well, Nerwen said Mac is a wolf too, so there's that. Firefoot is a whole different matter. Could be a wolf, certainly, but we know Lottie is wrong about Legate too, so I wouldn't bet on it.

Macalaure

06-06-2015, 02:12 PM

Not much time right now.

I have to say, as unhappy as I am with Nerwen's nonsense, it did bring us a wolf. Lottie was under suspicion, but it still could have taken a while to bring her down.

I still hope that she's Sally's bluffing lover, and that she will join us soon. A not unlikely ranger protection could delay that, which is even better: It slows down the killing (which is something we could really use), and it means we'll be able to give her one more Night's worth of info.

Rikae

06-06-2015, 02:16 PM

Hm.

I really got the impression that Mac was 100% certain I was lying about being the seer. If there had been doubt in his mind, I think he would have reacted differently.

That could, of course, have been because he was innocent, but it could also be that someone I named as innocent (Firefoot, Lommy, Boro, tp) was in his pack.

Rikae

06-06-2015, 02:26 PM

Ok, Shasta has voted for Lottie now. I say we empower Shasta (although it will be best to wait in case of any last-minute developments).

Firefoot's post isn't going anywhere. Even if it isn't discussed again, it will be a small matter for the living to remember it toMorrow, when they're discussing our contribution.

Nogrod

06-06-2015, 02:26 PM

Well, Nerwen said Mac is a wolf too, so there's that.I wouldn't say it's there (Lottie seemed to confess but it doesnt make Nerwen's revealment 100% fool-proof) - even if I'm leaning to trust it more than not at the moment.

That could, of course, have been because he was innocent, but it could also be that someone I named as innocent (Firefoot, Lommy, Boro, tp) was in his pack.I think all of the four qualify as possible wolves, even several of them, well all of them could be...

Rikae

06-06-2015, 02:35 PM

I wouldn't say it's there (Lottie seemed to confess but it doesnt make Nerwen's revealment 100% fool-proof) - even if I'm leaning to trust it more than not at the moment.

I think all of the four qualify as possible wolves, even several of them, well all of them could be...

Not Mac's packmates they couldn't.

I was thinking especially of Firefoot.

Nogrod

06-06-2015, 02:42 PM

I'd also like to point out that I have been pretty consistent in my suspicion of Mac, and voted for him yesterday bringing him to three votes when Agan had only four.Haha. Firefoot shooting herself to the foot?

None of this addresses the most important of my points: how did you know, without once suggesting something that was not correct, how the Night kills were distributed between the packs? You hit the nail on the head with your first swing, which would have been almost impossible if you only had access to the information the rest of the village does. You only could have know that that was how the kills fell out if you were, in fact, a member of one of the packs.And vengeful and angry Lottie shooting straight to the torso then?

It would be nice we'd used a system confirmed by a wolf to tell the people what we know... :)

Nogrod

06-06-2015, 02:44 PM

Not Mac's packmates they couldn't. Yeah, but I thought of them generally being wolves to start with...

I was thinking especially of Firefoot.And now I think we have some pieces falling nicely together...

A Little Green

06-06-2015, 02:56 PM

It looks like it's bedtime for me, so

++Shasta

Looks like the most sensible thing to do. Good night my lovelies.

Rikae

06-06-2015, 02:57 PM

Lottie is going to be so disappointed to find the seer isn't here. :D

the phantom

06-06-2015, 03:03 PM

Lottie is going to be so disappointed to find the seer isn't here.
Unless, of course, the unknown role chose to empower the Seer upon the Seer's death, so that the Seer is allowed two Living dreams per night even after death, on the condition that the results are sent to the player of his choice among the Living and he never sees the results himself. And the power only lasts so long as the unknown remains among the Living, and upon the death of the unknown the Seer entirely loses the ability to dream.

Just saying.

Legate of Amon Lanc

06-06-2015, 03:06 PM

Unless, of course, the unknown role chose to empower the Seer upon the Seer's death, so that the Seer is allowed two Living dreams per night even after death, on the condition that the results are sent to the player of his choice among the Living and he never sees the results himself. And the power only lasts so long as the unknown remains among the Living, and upon the death of the unknown the Seer entirely loses the ability to dream.

Just saying.

Hey, something like that has actually been done before, I remember something like that...

Anyway, I guess empowering Shasta now makes sense. Will wait still for a while in case something unexpected happens...

the phantom

06-06-2015, 03:09 PM

Anyway, back at home and ready to return to the reading and fun. :)

Rikae

06-06-2015, 03:10 PM

And the extra kill?

the phantom

06-06-2015, 03:13 PM

And the extra kill?
Kuru messing with us. :D

the phantom

06-06-2015, 03:19 PM

Okay, so just trying a couple things out... Please build off of and poke holes when necessary to refine...

Scenario:
Boro is Seer
Nerwen and Sally are telling the truth & innocent

LIVING
Seer: Boro
Ranger:
Lover: Sally
Lover:

Innocent: Shasta, Lommy

Wolves: Lottie

Unknown: Form, McCaber, Firefoot, Lalaith, Eomer, Morm, Nilp, Mith, Kath

COMPLICATION: Nerwen could have received the PM and reported it accurately despite being guilty- she felt forced to do it accurately or risk being outed as dishonest.

COMPLICATION: Nerwen is the Seer trying to cast doubt on her Seership.

Legate of Amon Lanc

06-06-2015, 03:27 PM

COMPLICATION: Nerwen could have received the PM and reported it accurately despite being guilty- she felt forced to do it accurately or risk being outed as dishonest.

I was thinking about this and I find it unlikely that she would be a Wolf and receive the PM. If she did, then the question is whether it would be worth it for her to say it aloud: after thinking about it, probably yes - even if Lottie was in her own pack, it would be a 1-for-1 person trade for Nerwen with kind of boosting up her own status with the village. (Her other option, not telling anything, could potentially endanger both her and Lottie - Lottie because of the dream, her because she tried to hush it up.) But generally speaking, I wouldn't overcomplicate it. If there is a catch in the whole issue, then I'd rather think it's something like Nerwen being a Seer or Lover pretending something complicated.

the phantom

06-06-2015, 03:29 PM

Aganzir

06-06-2015, 03:32 PM

the phantom

06-06-2015, 03:34 PM

the phantom

06-06-2015, 03:38 PM

And I don't know if it's too early to mention, but it seems pointless to attempt a check of a dead Lottie tonight, right?

Are we willing to assume the same for Mac or not?

Nogrod

06-06-2015, 03:40 PM

I've been reading through Firefoot and just checked here...

A thought before everyone gives their votes for toDay.

Wasn't the other one (than Shasta) Nilp?

I mean Nilp is the one who proposed the idea toDay in the first place - so it would be poetically right to give the vote to him rather than Shasta.

Just saying.

Aganzir

06-06-2015, 03:41 PM

I think we should check Mac. It will tell us something both about Nerwen and Rikae's "dreams".

Nogrod

06-06-2015, 03:41 PM

And I don't know if it's too early to mention, but it seems pointless to attempt a check of a dead Lottie tonight, right?

Are we willing to assume the same for Mac or not?For the time being, maybe yes, but I'd give it some thought though before deciding.

the phantom

06-06-2015, 03:41 PM

I mean Nilp is the one who proposed the idea toDay in the first place - so it would be poetically right to give the vote to him rather than Shasta.
Wait, what did he propose today?

Rikae

06-06-2015, 03:46 PM

If Nerwen is the seer this is a very risky move with little payoff. Let's hope not.

A traveling special role, I could buy. It fits with what Kuru said about everyone being on their toes.

I'd rather not waste our scry on Mac or Lottie. Legate seems like he has more of a trail than the rest here, so he'd be my preference.

Nogrod

06-06-2015, 03:48 PM

Wait, what did he propose today?
This. (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=697814&postcount=424)

Firefoot answered that post like this (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=697824&postcount=429) and then continued to carry the idea forwards...

Rikae

06-06-2015, 03:50 PM

I think we should check Mac. It will tell us something both about Nerwen and Rikae's "dreams".

I can tell you all about my dreams right now: I never had any.

Nerwen will most likely join us soon. If she's bluffing, she might just tell us so (although after Lottie's confession I think it's unlikely).

I think, for now, we can operate under the assumption that Mac is a wolf.

Rikae

06-06-2015, 03:51 PM

From looking (albeit drunkenly) at Mac last night I had the impression Nilp was a possible packmate of his.

Not that it matters much, but I'd prefer to give our vote to Shasta for that reason.

Aganzir

06-06-2015, 03:52 PM

I can tell you all about my dreams right now: I never had any.
Yeah I was referring to Mac's reaction to your "reveal" and what you said earlier - he could have been so genuine because you listed his fellow as innocent.

Aganzir

06-06-2015, 03:53 PM

Nogrod

06-06-2015, 03:55 PM

From looking (albeit drunkenly) at Mac last night I had the impression Nilp was a possible packmate of his.

Not that it matters much, but I'd prefer to give our vote to Shasta for that reason.The reason (or the way it was achieved) itself might not be "fair enough" but it might be fair enough as a guideline for our vote.

Rikae

06-06-2015, 04:00 PM

The reason (or the way it was achieved) itself might not be "fair enough" but it might be fair enough as a guideline for our vote.

Not sure what you mean here.

One thing we should be on guard against, though, is a tying our vote. That's one way the wolves could prevent our message about Greenie going through (and keep the village thinking Legate was the seer... maybe even to the point of casting doubt on a real seer reveal down the line).

There's going to be at least one probable-wolf around at deadline. Let's not give him room to mess things up for us.

the phantom

06-06-2015, 04:05 PM

I was going to just follow Green and vote Shasta, but give me a minute to look at the options...

the phantom

06-06-2015, 04:11 PM

Legate of Amon Lanc

06-06-2015, 04:15 PM

Quick comment on my phone when Lommy isn't looking. Lottie's entire case on Firefoot being a wolf rests on her accurate guess of the wolf kills. But I think assuming that similar players were killed by the same pack is just the most logical conclusion, so I don't think it's actually very incriminating.
Same thinking. Like tp said, it was even likely somebody might hit it right just by pure chance. And look, Lottie also thinks I am the Seer, thus a good example how one can make even totally wrong conclusions based on "facts".

And I don't know if it's too early to mention, but it seems pointless to attempt a check of a dead Lottie tonight, right?

Are we willing to assume the same for Mac or not?
I probably would not check either of them, at least for the time being. If there was anything uncertain about Mac or whatever it was that Agan was trying to say (not sure I got it right), if you wanted to shed some light on Mac and Rikae's yesterday conversation with "I am the Seer - you are the Wolf", then I'd rather check Rikae.
I'd rather not waste our scry on Mac or Lottie. Legate seems like he has more of a trail than the rest here, so he'd be my preference.
Understandable, if you are all so uncertain about me, but I think it really should be someone else. Because I am not sure if learning my role would give anything else besides my role. Once again, as I said earlier, I think it would be the best to learn the role of someone whose role could point to other info, or other players. I think we have lot of info that's been linked to me revealed fairly well (you checked my main suspect Greenie already...), and now it should be at least clear I am not a Wolf from Lottie's party after she claimed they killed me.

I've been reading through Firefoot and just checked here...

A thought before everyone gives their votes for toDay.

Wasn't the other one (than Shasta) Nilp?

I mean Nilp is the one who proposed the idea toDay in the first place - so it would be poetically right to give the vote to him rather than Shasta.

Just saying.

I don't really care and it might be nice to give credit where credit is due, then again he didn't actively pursue it (unlike Firefoot did) and out of the two options, Shasta is really more trustworthy-looking player. I'd prefer to give the vote to him also in case the village wishes to guess something based on our preference.

Nogrod

06-06-2015, 04:15 PM

Okay-

If Boro is the Seer we want the vote to go to Shasta (he dreamed him innocent).

If Firefoot is the Seer we want the vote to go to Nilp (she suspects Boro earlier perhaps reflecting on Shasta).

If Nerwen is the Seer we want the vote to go to Shasta (dreamed him innocent).

Any other factors we need to consider in this?Oh my... :p

Anyway.

Let's pick Shasta then and secure all vote the same so the wolves have minimal chances of swaying the vote, right?

Btw. there are some interesting things with Firefoot... I'll try to make it shortish - and soonish (to go to bed early today).

Legate of Amon Lanc

06-06-2015, 04:17 PM

Not sure what you mean here.

One thing we should be on guard against, though, is a tying our vote. That's one way the wolves could prevent our message about Greenie going through (and keep the village thinking Legate was the seer... maybe even to the point of casting doubt on a real seer reveal down the line).

There's going to be at least one probable-wolf around at deadline. Let's not give him room to mess things up for us.

Good point. Because especially now, that we will be (hopefully) getting a known (hopefully?) Wolf here to the thread, regardless of how many are already present, we should start to stick a bit to some rules. Therefore, I suggest we all vote as unanimously as we can, and so for Shasta, since he already has a vote. Nogrod's argument for "being fair" is not really worth the confusion.

Nogrod

06-06-2015, 04:17 PM

Oh, and putting my money where my mouth is...

++ Shasta

Legate of Amon Lanc

06-06-2015, 04:22 PM

Indeed. No need to delay, right? They also apparently have Lottie bagged, can't imagine what would have to happen to turn it over...

++Shasta

And really, Firefoot is now making so much sense there (e.g. raising the possibility that I might not be the Seer... unless, of course, unless she knows because she is a Wolf and knows I got something wrong? But then again, what... I didn't really post anything that conclusive). I really hope she's innocent, and she started acting really helpfully and all.

Nogrod

06-06-2015, 04:23 PM

Not sure what you mean here.Getting hints from someone's reactions in RL can't always be avoided. But using those reasons then publicly is another thing, and not quite fair - I mean you can't avoid getting things into your mind seeing someone's reactions but in the thread we probably should stick to the written stuff... gah... it's not worth a discussion now.

Nogrod

06-06-2015, 04:25 PM

And really, Firefoot is now making so much sense thereEarlier toDay she argued for lynching the ranger... :rolleyes:

It is an interesting read, her posting that is.

I'll be back with it soon as I can.

Rikae

06-06-2015, 04:33 PM

Also, I'll probably want to take a second look at why Rikae and I were killed. Do we take Lottie at face value about Legate? If so, Nerwen/Mith/Lommy certainly aren't in her pack.

Mac's pack killing me Night 1 would make even more sense if-

Agan, Boro, Sally, & Nilp are all innocent (or at least in the other pack).
and/or
Nogrod and/or Firefoot are also in Mac's pack.

Rikae, what's the best you can say about your own murder?

I suppose the most likely scenario is that Lottie & her pack found me seerish.

Going on that assumption:

Day 1 I said "Anybody who is suggesting an ordo self-sacrifice toDay (Nilp? Phantom? Lottie?) fie on you."
and made a point of saying I liked tp's ideas "whatever he is"
Argued against lynching people who always look suspicious (I was thinking Rune, McCaber, Shasta... not sure if others were thinking the same)

Day 2
Right off the bat I talk about being somewhat suspicious of Mac & Lommy
Joked about Lommy setting me up.
Voted Lommy. I was going on a hunch. I could see a wolf-Lommy finding the
way I was after her all day seerish.
Still making a point that I liked tp's ideas but didn't necessarily trust him.
"Ugh. I suspected Agan earlier but she's been looking better to me lately. I also definitely don't want Form lynched. And Nog is creating confusion but I suspect it's just sleep deprivation, not evil, to blame.
"
Suggested voting Lommy, Greenie, Mac or tp. Voted Lommy.

Day 3
I first said "that takes care of that" of tp's death, then went to look at the Nogawagon.
Concluded it wasn't to defend Agan.
Suggested it was defending Lommy.
Looked at Lottie and Firefoot. Found Lottie quite suspicious and tried to get others to vote her, unsure of Firefoot.
Voted Greenie as a preferable lynch to Mac or Agan.

So from this alone I could conclude:

Lommy might well be in Lottie's pack.
Rune most likely was not.
Mac most likely was not.

Not sure how that makes sense in light of their interactions at the moment, but yeah.

EDIT: My post #385, at 6:35

Originally Posted by Nogrod http://forum.barrowdowns.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showthread.php?p=698098#post698098)
Getting hints from someone's reactions in RL can't always be avoided. But using those reasons then publicly is another thing, and not quite fair - I mean you can't avoid getting things into your mind seeing someone's reactions but in the thread we probably should stick to the written stuff... gah... it's not worth a discussion now.
If you mean me talking about Mac's reactions, I meant his reactions in the thread.
As for Mac & Nilp, that was based on the way they talked about each other in the living thread. I'm not entirely sure anymore what looked wolfish about it, though.

Legate of Amon Lanc

06-06-2015, 04:38 PM

I suppose the most likely scenario is that Lottie & her pack found me seerish.

But didn't she deny killing you? She confessed to killing me. So she couldn't have killed you, if she isn't lying (which, of course, she could... I find this whole "now I'm gonna tell you villagers who killed who" very illogical in this game where the main advantage of WWs is that there is no info at all).

the phantom

06-06-2015, 04:39 PM

I suppose the most likely scenario is that Lottie & her pack found me seerish.
Wait, are you saying Lottie was lying about the pack kills?

Didn't she say her pack killed Rune and Legate?

(x-post, saying the same as Legate)

Rikae

06-06-2015, 04:44 PM

Well, why wouldn't she lie, especially if I was on the trail of her packmate...

However, I just noticed in #490, Lommy calls for someone to look at me for
seer-hints. Would she do that, knowing it would point back to her?
Then again, that could be exactly what she'd do... call for someone else to do it in the midst of a long post, and then distract everyone with Legate-was-the-seer talk.

Rikae

06-06-2015, 04:46 PM

But didn't she deny killing you? She confessed to killing me. So she couldn't have killed you, if she isn't lying (which, of course, she could... I find this whole "now I'm gonna tell you villagers who killed who" very illogical in this game where the main advantage of WWs is that there is no info at all).

How much reason (sorry if I missed something, I haven't been reading 100% carefully) did Lottie have to kill you, anyway?

the phantom

06-06-2015, 04:50 PM

Hmmm... Guess I'll have to do a separate exam with the kills flipped.

Legate of Amon Lanc

06-06-2015, 04:51 PM

How much reason (sorry if I missed something, I haven't been reading 100% carefully) did Lottie have to kill you, anyway?

Um... because she thought I was the Seer? I mean look at it, even some innocents thought I was the Seer because I was being so steadfast in going after Greenie (even before she died) - especially since not very many people suspected her? Isn't thinking that I am a Seer enough of a reason for a Wolf to kill me?

Nogrod

06-06-2015, 04:52 PM

Firefoot

She seems to start every Day with a theoretical analysis of something. D1 it is the deliberate tie, on D2 it is how different sides would have either wished or not wished for the tie, and on D3 she counts possible innocent vs. wolf ratios among the dead / living.

The third one is actually followed by an interesting thing: The significance of this is that if either of the wolf packs is missing members, I would think they would be getting a bit nervous/desperate (depending on how many missing members...), not knowing whether the other pack is in similar shape. Could be telling toDay (for comparison, at the start of Day 2, there was a 51% all the people killed were innocent). (Hmm…)How come she thinks about these things as the very first thing of the Day - maybe it's something very close?

On D2 she clearly goes nudging both Rikae and Mac in a way I'm used to see more from the wolves - but it is not anything conclusive of course as the innocents can test the waters as well.

With Rikae she jumps quite fast to Nerwen’s question whether Rikae actually knew Rune was killed because he was looking gifted (#253) by saying I was also getting some bad vibes from Rikae, but don't have any reasons or analysis to back it up yet.
With Mac (#284) she makes the classic: Anyone else think Mac responded really defensively to what I thought was at best a rather half-hearted accusation? (referencing posts 252 and 281)?

Being clearly more active on D3 she has been all over the place doing many things - like taking care we set up this information line Nilp had reminded should be there. And being invaluable in there.

But then in #419 She first makes a pretty detailed speculation as to how the wolves could kill if the lover sacrificed - and then turned to speculate with the possibility of rather lynching the ranger!

#427 is the post which Lottie-wolf spotted in her frenzy and where she puts the Night-kills nicely in place.

And then of course her #534 where she defends herself by saying that I'd also like to point out that I have been pretty consistent in my suspicion of Mac, and voted for him yesterdayAnd since when has consistency been anything but the privilege of those who already know something?

It seems her suspicions have been pretty consistent though - and yes we can also speculate if she then is the seer (happily we can do it here). But I'll check them and leave you with this thus far so that you can get some first ideas about how interesting Firefoot is (I mean she could be anything).

What do you think?

Rikae

06-06-2015, 05:00 PM

My pack killed Rune and Legate (I would like to take the credit for figuring out that Legate was likely the Seer, thank you, I was pretty pleased with that. Can't believe he got the info out anyway)

She doesn't say how, though.

Just looking through Legate's posts, Seer-Legate mostly points toward wolf-Greenie. In fact, it strongly looks like she was the only wolf he dreamed of - he sets her apart from everyone else, consistently.
Perhaps Lottie is betting we didn't scry Greenie (or that she was in the other pack).

Now, that leaves the question... who killed Mac and Legate? I mean, assuming Mac isn't in Lottie's pack, and knowing Greenie is innocent.

Perhaps Firefoot (and Mac) killing Legate, assuming he was a seer about to dream her and that Greenie was in the other pack?

Special role killing Mac of course makes sense.

Rikae

06-06-2015, 05:03 PM

Um... because she thought I was the Seer? I mean look at it, even some innocents thought I was the Seer because I was being so steadfast in going after Greenie (even before she died) - especially since not very many people suspected her? Isn't thinking that I am a Seer enough of a reason for a Wolf to kill me?

Lottiewolf had more reason to think I was the seer. Even though she might have noticed that you were going after Greenie seerishly and thought Greenie was in the other pack, I would certainly have been a more immediate danger to her own pack.

Rikae

06-06-2015, 05:05 PM

I mean, if she had us both on her potential-seer list. Killing you would have been less urgent, since your one "wolf", if you did have one, was "in the other pack".
And she'd absolutely want to throw the village off her pack's trail. Why on earth would she give an accurate confession?

Legate of Amon Lanc

06-06-2015, 05:05 PM

Hmmm... Guess I'll have to do a separate exam with the kills flipped.
Well I certainly still think we should not trust the "revealed kills" completely. And rethinking now what Rikae said... it really is possible she was the target of Lottie's group, and she lied, and I was the other one's target, but either way, it does not really give us much. There are no stronger arguments for it being either way, and it does not really give us any solid info we could use.

The third one is actually followed by an interesting thing: How come she thinks about these things as the very first thing of the Day - maybe it's something very close?
Interesting thought. Although - not wishing to be a spoilsport, but we sadly can't do much with this analysis from our perspective on this thread :)

But then in #419 She first makes a pretty detailed speculation as to how the wolves could kill if the lover sacrificed - and then turned to speculate with the possibility of rather lynching the ranger!
Nah, I looked it up, it wasn't that bad. She's got a point, the whole argument is about that Ranger technically could bring the info back from the dead more clearly than the Lover - which is true. But it is also true that getting rid of the Ranger for one Night is pretty bad. In fact, outing him is really bad. So yeah. Depends just how well she has thought it through (if she had an innocent, simple motive, or a well-thought, evil one).

Nogrod

06-06-2015, 05:09 PM

Couldn't Lottie just mess around while being devastated of being blown out? I mean putting the kills in the wrong order - and if really against Firefoot (aka thinking her a wolf from the rival pack) that would be also annoying to Firefoot?

I mean that's how we people are, irrational in times and being fex. accused of killing someone you thought was a bad idea while you were - in your own mind at least - being really clever, and now are in risk of looking like a clumsy one - or something? No, I don't have any evidence for the "intelligence of the kills", but just reminding we might have other reasons here besides purely tactical ones...

the phantom

06-06-2015, 05:12 PM

I suppose Lottie could lie about spotting Legate in order to hide legate's likely dreams (Nerwen/Lommy/Mith) because one or more is in Lottie's pack...

Nogrod

06-06-2015, 05:16 PM

I suppose Lottie could lie about spotting Legate in order to hide legate's likely dreams (Nerwen/Lommy/Mith) because one or more is in Lottie's pack...Lommy seems to turn out from behind several different corners...

Rikae

06-06-2015, 05:20 PM

And Lommy again.

"Seer"!me went after her, "seer"!Legate protected her.
Conveying Greenie's role could actually be quite useful after all.

And why is everyone believing the wolf...????

So, tentatively...

Loslote, Lommy, ????

Mac, ????, ????

If the Macpack killed Legate as a potential seer, presumably Mith and Nerwen aren't in it.

Edit: X'd with Nog

Rikae

06-06-2015, 05:22 PM

Definitely want to scry Legate.

Nogrod

06-06-2015, 05:24 PM

Some open cross-tables could be of use here.

I'm not even imagining of making any as I'm finally going to sleep at a half-decent time, but if you tp or Rikae have something like tables done already would you mind sharing them?

And good night and good luck...

Legate of Amon Lanc

06-06-2015, 05:26 PM

Lottiewolf had more reason to think I was the seer. Even though she might have noticed that you were going after Greenie seerishly and thought Greenie was in the other pack, I would certainly have been a more immediate danger to her own pack.
Aah, okay. You totally lost me there before. Well, I am still a bit lost: just the part, why did you think Lottie would think you-Seer would be more dangerous to her pack than me-Seer?

I suppose Lottie could lie about spotting Legate in order to hide legate's likely dreams (Nerwen/Lommy/Mith) because one or more is in Lottie's pack...

Yeah, that's definitely also a good possibility! Actually fairly likely. Although again, that wouldn't last after the real Seer reveals. (Of course, unless that Seer would be - from Lottie's pov - Rikae, who is safely dead.)

Aganzir

06-06-2015, 05:26 PM

++Loslote

And I hope her Packmate/s go for Sally toNIGHT.
This makes me uncomfortable. It looks like he's trying to organise something between packs.

++Shasta

Rikae

06-06-2015, 05:29 PM

Aah, okay. You totally lost me there before. Well, I am still a bit lost: just the part, why did you think Lottie would think you-Seer would be more dangerous to her pack than me-Seer?

Because I looked like I'd already dreamt her (and Lommy?) while you looked like you'd only dreamt Greenie.

the phantom

06-06-2015, 05:30 PM

No tactical reason for me not to vote Shasta, correct?

(just assuming Nilp doesn't last minute reveal as Seer and they interpret our Shasta vote as disbelief, ha ha)

edit: never mind Agan voted anyway

the phantom

06-06-2015, 05:31 PM

++Shasta

Rikae

06-06-2015, 05:32 PM

++Shasta

Macalaure

06-06-2015, 05:34 PM

COMPLICATION: Nerwen could have received the PM and reported it accurately despite being guilty- she felt forced to do it accurately or risk being outed as dishonest.

I haven't though about that. So the seer is allowed, maybe once in the game, to send two of their dreams to one person of their choice. They send the identities of two wolves they've dreamed of, but they chose poorly, and sent it to evil Nerwen. Nerwen identifies one wolf from the other pack (Lottie) and feeds her to the mob. The other wolf is one of her own, and she switches him/her, instead naming me, who she and others have been suspecting all along.

But this doesn't make sense either. The seer must've dreamed of some innocent, some of which should still be alive. They would've chosen one of them, and not taken a risk.

Unless, of course, the Kuru chose the recipient randomly. But that's a bit too much.

Wait, are you saying Lottie was lying about the pack kills?
A wolf would never do that!

It just occurred to me: Maybe Kuru's twist is not that there is an assassin, but that there are three wolf packs, and the reason why there were only two kills in Night 2 is because of a ranger save that Kuru (of course :rolleyes: ) didn't reveal to us.

edit: off to catch up on the living thread

Nogrod

06-06-2015, 05:35 PM

This makes me uncomfortable. It looks like he's trying to organise something between packs.Nicely spotted! He might of course think sending the lover here is a good idea in the first place - but true, why suggest the other pack to do a thing one unless trying to leave one's own leeway to do thing two - or even more importantly avoid trying to do the same thing when there would only be one kill... and if the other team goes for possible Sally-lover they also reserve themselves the chance to knock one of the rivals off as well while the competing team can not. And thinking of that the other team refuses to go after Sally and... :p

That war between the packs might actually end up in nice results for us if they took it far enough...

Legate of Amon Lanc

06-06-2015, 05:42 PM

This makes me uncomfortable. It looks like he's trying to organise something between packs.
It really does.

Because I looked like I'd already dreamt her (and Lommy?) while you looked like you'd only dreamt Greenie.
Oh yes. Okay. Well I suspected her too, but not as heavily as Greenie.

I haven't though about that. So the seer is allowed, maybe once in the game, to send two of their dreams to one person of their choice. They send the identities of two wolves they've dreamed of, but they chose poorly, and sent it to evil Nerwen. Nerwen identifies one wolf from the other pack (Lottie) and feeds her to the mob. The other wolf is one of her own, and she switches him/her, instead naming me, who she and others have been suspecting all along.
When you are already dead... riiight. (And I don't think you've been that suspected anyway, for that matter.)

It just occurred to me: Maybe Kuru's twist is not that there is an assassin, but that there are three wolf packs, and the reason why there were only two kills in Night 2 is because of a ranger save that Kuru (of course :rolleyes: ) didn't reveal to us.
Now that would be a twist!

Okay, Mr. Wolf... and others, I think it's about time for me to go to sleep. (And here I thought how nicely early I'll go...) But hey, good. Good night, see you during the Night...

Macalaure

06-06-2015, 05:48 PM

I'd also like to point out that I have been pretty consistent in my suspicion of Mac, and voted for him yesterday bringing him to three votes when Agan had only four.
Translation: "See, I'm a good wolf. You can't just lynch me! I'm putting effort into this! It just wouldn't be fair!" :D

Please guys talk to the dead thread, rather now than later.

They're about to change the assignment. Why did you all already vote Shasta? Firefoot said she was just making an example!

the phantom

06-06-2015, 05:48 PM

Just as a point of reference, what would you have done if Lottie-Wolf had attacked you like she did Firefoot, labeling you as a competing Wolf.

I figure I'd go with it. I'd of course want the Lottie lynch to take place, but I'd tease Lottie as if I was in the competing pack. Maybe tell her Mac wasn't in my pack, and say that even without me we were going to win etc. Basically I'd try to tempt her remaining packmate(s) into Night killing me.

(I'm just trying to gauge the innocence Ff's reaction.)

Macalaure

06-06-2015, 05:51 PM

When you are already dead... riiight. (And I don't think you've been that suspected anyway, for that matter.)I don't understand what you mean, honestly.

I received votes on both days, and was second in line yesterDay. I think I have been that suspected. And Nerwen had been after me for a while.

Rikae

06-06-2015, 05:52 PM

They're about to change the assignment. Why did you all already vote Shasta? Firefoot said she was just making an example!

So, no more pretense? Just gonna stick to good old fashioned revealed wolf nonsense from now on? :smokin:

Edit: X'd with Nighteyes.

Macalaure

06-06-2015, 06:00 PM

So, no more pretense? Just gonna stick to good old fashioned revealed wolf nonsense from now on? :smokin:

For example:

If Nog is a wolf, give your extra vote to Form or McCaber
If Nog is innocent, give your extra vote to Lottie or Nerwen
If phantom is a wolf, give your extra vote to Boro or Firefoot
If phantom is innocent, give your extra vote to Lommy or Lal
If Greenie is a wolf, give your extra vote to Eomer or morm
If Greenie is innocent, give your extra vote to Nilp or shasta
If Rune is a wolf, give your extra vote to Mith or Kath
If Rune is innocent, give your extra vote to Sally

For example:

For example:

EXAMPLE

I don't think the living took this list as final. Unless they're abandoning the idea entirely (don't think they will), they will make up a new list, and Shasta will mean something different.

But yeah, I'm the one doing wolf nonsense. :rolleyes:

Rikae

06-06-2015, 06:04 PM

A few other people have linked back to Firefoot's list and said they should use it.

Although yes, it does look like (your buddy?) Lommy is trying to create confusion on that now (probably knowing that at least some of the dead would have already voted).

EDIT: My post at 9:32, #424

Yep... Lommy is up to no good...
__________________

the phantom

06-06-2015, 06:06 PM

In a way you're totally right, Mac. Because they haven't been firm enough about the plan all day today (that they were for sure doing one and XYZ is clearly the template) there is an outside possibility that they'll change it. This would be a result of everyone not properly hopping on board the first day, because if it was accepted that everyone would do it and that it was very important the system would've already been settled by this point (because they would've had enough input on it from everyone that there would be no reason to tweak a list further). Plus someone would've pointed out all the Europeans on the Dead thread by now if it had been a properly prominent topic.

We can only hope things don't get screwed up.

the phantom

06-06-2015, 06:08 PM

Perhaps if the Dead Thread goes Dead for the next hour or so they'll realize it and think it's bad to tweak things?

I believe I'll go do something else for a bit, just in case. See you later.

Macalaure

06-06-2015, 06:17 PM

This would be a result of everyone not properly hopping on board the first day
Or a result of the dead being hasty. :rolleyes:

Most people that voted are even still around!

Macalaure

06-06-2015, 06:25 PM

Actually, they will most likely just confirm Firefoot's list. There's nothing wrong with it, after all, and they might realize that some dead might have already voted.

Unless a wolf thinks s/he can seize the situation without making him/herself look bad.

Aganzir

06-06-2015, 07:17 PM

So quiet!

I have a half-finished post sitting on my laptop listing all the night kills' innocent and guilty lists but I can't continue it as long as my friends are keeping an eye on me and glaring if they catch me posting when we're meant to be roleplaying (hi Lommy whenever you read this I'm sorry).

Kath is back and looking normal even if confused. Which can of course mean anything.

Aganzir

06-06-2015, 07:19 PM

Ha traitor Lommy she posted too!

Isn't it a LITTLE BIT too late to be asking for other options though?

the phantom

06-06-2015, 07:51 PM

I'm excited to see if Lottie and Mac will go at it in the Dead thread. :D

If she's going to be helping us hunt your pack, Mac, just fess up and play nice and maybe we'll help you hunt her pack instead.

Also, Lottie should definitely adopt Nog as one of her packmates in order to throw us off by making us think she only has one partner left. If you do it, dearie, I promise I'll pretend to believe it just to annoy Nog.

Kuruharan

06-06-2015, 07:56 PM

The residents were quite active! They scrutinized the happenings of the world around them with great interest and were locked in endless debate regarding their meaning.

They came to a decision and bent their powers to accomplish it!

What a novel feeling!

.......

The mist stirred. A new light.

What kind of welcome would be here for Loslote? Would the residents even share the cake?

(I am also a dumbhead and forgot to include Greenie's alignment in the last narration.)

The Missing or Dead:
Kuruharan
Nogrod
the phantom
Rune Son of Bjarne
Aganzir
A Little Green (Prey)
Macalaure
Rikae
Legate of Amon Lanc
Loslote

The Living:
Formendacil
satansaloser2005
McCaber
Boromir88
Nerwen
Firefoot
Thinlómien
Lalaith
Eomer of the Rohirrim
mormegil
Nilpaurion Felagund
Shastanis Althreduin
Mithalwen
Kath

Illusion:
Gwathagor (Ordo)

Aganzir

06-06-2015, 07:58 PM

Also, Lottie should definitely adopt Nog as one of her packmates in order to throw us off by making us think she only has one partner left. If you do it, dearie, I promise I'll pretend to believe it just to annoy Nog.
:D :D

Hello Wolfie. Welcome to death.

the phantom

06-06-2015, 08:01 PM

Firefoot isn't a Wolf, Lottie. The other pack was Mac, Green, and me. We're all dead. It's just you guys left.

Rikae

06-06-2015, 08:01 PM

Welcome to the party (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HipoikwHRb8). Lottie!

The cake is a... stale old gamer joke.

Loslote

06-06-2015, 08:02 PM

Well, that was rude. *sniffs*

Aganzir

06-06-2015, 08:04 PM

Firefoot isn't a Wolf, Lottie. The other pack was Mac, Green, and me. We're all dead. It's just you guys left.
Fortunately your pack is still there to take out sally, as Nilp kindly suggested.

the phantom

06-06-2015, 08:07 PM

Yep. Even the innocent Dead want Sally-Lover taken out, for even thinking of proposing lynch suicide. There must be penalties for that level of crazy.

Macalaure

06-06-2015, 08:09 PM

If you thought that at least the other team is down by 1, too, I'll have to disappoint you.

I'm not a wolf, though I have given up on trying to convince people of it. :rolleyes:

Loslote

06-06-2015, 08:12 PM

Fortunately your pack is still there to take out sally, as Nilp kindly suggested.

My pack has more interesting blood to stain their fangs with.

Aganzir

06-06-2015, 08:14 PM

My pack has more interesting blood to stain their fangs with.
Can't be very interesting as I'm already dead.

the phantom

06-06-2015, 08:14 PM

My pack has more interesting blood to stain their fangs with.
How would you know?

Maybe they're entirely lost without you.

Aganzir

06-06-2015, 08:15 PM

If you thought that at least the other team is down by 1, too, I'll have to disappoint you.

I'm not a wolf, though I have given up on trying to convince people of it. :rolleyes:
Also, that's karma. You can talk to Nog about it. ;) :p

Loslote

06-06-2015, 08:17 PM

How would you know?

Maybe they're entirely lost without you.

Well, who wouldn't be? But I have faith that they will carry on, cherishing always the time they had with me, holding the memory of me in their hearts, and of course, slaughtering all who stand before them in my name. :Merisu:

the phantom

06-06-2015, 09:55 PM

Now that you see Legate isn't the Seer, do you still wish for your pack to take credit for that kill, Lottie?

the phantom

06-06-2015, 10:00 PM

Enjoying reading our thread, Galadriel55?

I suppose technically you're a Wight thus we can't forbid it, but you still can't post. :p

A Little Green

06-07-2015, 01:16 AM

Firefoot isn't a Wolf, Lottie. The other pack was Mac, Green, and me. We're all dead. It's just you guys left.:Merisu:

Re: would Lottie lie about the Night kills? Definitely a possibility. Although her motive once she came out seemed to be to set the village after her rival pack, in which case the village knowing their kills would be helpful. If so, however, she would have to assume that her own pack's kills do not incriminate her remaining packmate(s). That, in turn, would make anyone too closely associated with Runey or Legsy an unlikely packmate for her. That said, I'm not sure how much we can speculate about this given that we can't know whether she told the truth or not. Unless, of course, Mac would care to share his pack's kills?

By the way, is there an obvious reason why Mac and Lottie couldn't be packmates? I'm too lazy to reread.

A Little Green

06-07-2015, 01:17 AM

Also, if Lottie didn't lie, we at least know who's responsible for the dead Europeans.

Loslote

06-07-2015, 01:29 AM

Now that you see Legate isn't the Seer, do you still wish for your pack to take credit for that kill, Lottie?

Did I say that? Huh. Funny how things happen, isn't it? Maybe I killed him. I'd like to have killed him, if only because I'd like to have killed every one of you, and every one in the Living thread, too, but who can remember, really? The blood lust rises, your vision goes fuzzy, and well, I was in such a state of shock, I completely blacked out. I can't remember a thing. It wasn't until later, when I was washing the blood off my hands I even knew they were dead.

But anyway, whoever I killed...

They had it coming
They had it coming
They had it coming all along
I didn't do it
But if I'd done it
How could you tell me that I was wrong?

A Little Green

06-07-2015, 01:55 AM

Aww honey now you're just being mean.

Legate of Amon Lanc

06-07-2015, 04:08 AM

My pack has more interesting blood to stain their fangs with.
Care to share your vision? To satisfy our curiosity, so that we don't have to wait the whole Night for it?

Now that you see Legate isn't the Seer, do you still wish for your pack to take credit for that kill, Lottie?
Yeah, Lottie, *eat* that!

Nogrod

06-07-2015, 05:18 AM

Did I say that? Huh. Funny how things happen, isn't it? Maybe I killed him. I'd like to have killed him, if only because I'd like to have killed every one of you, and every one in the Living thread, too, but who can remember, really? The blood lust rises, your vision goes fuzzy, and well, I was in such a state of shock, I completely blacked out. I can't remember a thing. It wasn't until later, when I was washing the blood off my hands I even knew they were dead. :D

That was a good Day, but it's Night now and we have a new task at hand.

So which are our viable choices for toNight?

Legate then, or do you think Mac needs to be checked? Being safe on the alignment of which one of them would give us (and the Living) most valuable info?

Any others we'd need to consider checking: the phantom, Rikae, myself? I guess that would be the widest reasonable list. (I'm kind of excluding Rune as there is probably very little his alignment could tell us - and kind of think that fits to me as well, but you'll judge that.)

Nogrod

06-07-2015, 05:32 AM

This continuous stuff going in the narrations surely means something, but does anyone have even a decentish idea as to what it could mean? Something to do with the special role? When it is received, when it is fulfilled or ready to use...

Day2 opening: One individual had even developed a persistent itch due to the damp from the doors being permanently shut.

Day3 opening: One of the residents scratched as they all looked about themselves.

Day4 ending: *scratch scratch scratch*

Rikae

06-07-2015, 08:06 AM

Well, "looked all about themselves" = Nerwen's evesdropping, I suppose

Beyond that, nothing really.

Rikae

06-07-2015, 08:08 AM

:D

That was a good Day, but it's Night now and we have a new task at hand.

So which are our viable choices for toNight?

Legate then, or do you think Mac needs to be checked? Being safe on the alignment of which one of them would give us (and the Living) most valuable info?

Any others we'd need to consider checking: the phantom, Rikae, myself? I guess that would be the widest reasonable list. (I'm kind of excluding Rune as there is probably very little his alignment could tell us - and kind of think that fits to me as well, but you'll judge that.)

I know I was one who said Legate, but now I'm thinking maybe we should make a list of everyone & what knowing that person's role would tell us. Scry the person with the biggest trail. Off the top of my head I feel like it's Legate, but I might be missing something.

the phantom

06-07-2015, 08:09 AM

As far as which one of us to check-

How likely is the village to assume Nerwen was entirely up front? If they would assume, and if it is true, then a Mac check would be pointless. But if she happens to be up to something, or if the info is simply flawed, and the village worries about it, then we'll want to know Mac and so will they. Of course if Nerwen gets night-killed it will be a moot point- how likely do you think it is that one of the packs will kill off Nerwen?

Basically I do kind of want to know for certain about Mac, especially since Nerwen, Morm, and Firefoot all gave him votes on Day 2. But at the same time I want to maximize our usefulness, and could we be served just as well assuming Mac's guilt for the time being?

Anyway, I will be mostly absent for the next few hours.

Rikae

06-07-2015, 08:16 AM

Yeah, I consider it likely Nerwen gets killed toNight (although she may be protected).

Also, my morning brain without coffee keeps thinking Lottie and Nerwen are actually the lovers. Lol.

I'll be back after I'm caffeinated.

A Little Green

06-07-2015, 09:24 AM

I'd say it makes more sense to assume Mac's guilt for now. Of course this could be a catastrophic course of action if Nerwen was pulling our leg, but the real Seer is going to come out sooner or later in either this thread or the other one so the truth would come out eventually anyway. Right?

Legate of Amon Lanc

06-07-2015, 11:44 AM

I know I was one who said Legate, but now I'm thinking maybe we should make a list of everyone & what knowing that person's role would tell us. Scry the person with the biggest trail. Off the top of my head I feel like it's Legate, but I might be missing something.

Are you sure you are not the Seer? Upon reading Nog's post, I was thinking totally exactly the same.

Well, I'd look at it this way:

Rune Son of Bjarne - I agree checking him does not make much sense at this moment. Also, he has been killed fairly early, so one cannot also make much based on his associations with people.
Aganzir - likewise not much sense, I think we can assume she is the Hunter.
Lottie - also I daresay we can assume she is a Wolf.
Macalaure - I also think we can be fine with assuming he's a Wolf. If any other circumstances arise, he can be always checked later. But (and what I am about to say is a general point which I would like to underline as the guiding principle of our voting altogether) as of now, people on the Living thread are counting on him being a Wolf, so we won't be bringing any new information to them if we just confirm it. Of course, if we've been fooled, and he's not a Wolf, it would be a completely different matter, but I think so far by probability we should rather look at someone else.
Legate of Amon Lanc - obviously I consider it a waste personally, although if there are real doubts, so be it. But honestly, do you think it helps anyone (meaning, the Living, if we communicate it to them)? (And do you think the chance of me being a Wolf is really that big?) Anyway, thinking about that, we've just established Greenie is innocent. The worst thing that could happen would actually be if the people on the Living thread start assuming I am a Wolf, in that case, by all means check me. But we could wait with it until we know what their reactions are.
Nogrod - even though he would be one of those I could consider, he has the same problem as Rune - and he said it himself - that there is very little his alignment could tell anyone. I would be all for checking him, but he died so early that connections between him and others are not that many (even though, he hadn't been the most quiet player, so mayhaps...?)
Rikae - well. If you permit me, Rikae, you are such an enigma (that's a compliment) that I would be quite inclined to check you. I am not sure it's our priority though. Because if it just tells us you are prey, then well, nice, but didn't help. (Of course that's the case with everyone. I guess now we are just operating on the level of "which of the people we have here is the most likely to be a Wolf hiding amongst us".)
the phantom - could also suffer from the same problem as Rune and Nog, although I think he still must have the highest, or almost highest post count on the Living thread. So it might make sense to check him. Even though now he is very sensible and all, and I have no problem with believing him innocent. But again, it might really be helpful for the village.

So based on rational calculation, I would suggest possibly the phantom, or either Rikae or Nog. Bonus: based on gut feeling, on the other hand, I would even maybe rather check Rikae. Just for the peace of mind. But whatever. Yeah, probably Phantom, or eventually her, that would be my choices.

Rikae

06-07-2015, 12:03 PM

By the way, is there an obvious reason why Mac and Lottie couldn't be packmates? I'm too lazy to reread.
I don't know about others, but I was thinking of how I went after Mac on Day 2 but was reluctant to vote him on Day 3,
making it look like I dreamed him innocent. I doubt Mac's pack would
have thought I was the seer.
And Lottie's pack would have been the most likely one to kill me as a potential seer, because of the way I went after her.

Rune: Died early and didn't leave much of a trail, mostly arguing about having a Day 1 lynch or not.

the phantom:
The fact that he's so determined not to be scryed almost makes me want to scry him.
However, there really isn't much his role would tell us. While alive, he talked mostly about game
mechanics and, while his ideas were controversial, he himself wasn't.
He did help organize the lynching of Nogrod but, as that lynch only really saved the hunter, we can't
conclude much from it.
As long as we're cautious not to allow him and Mac the chance to sway the vote together, his role doesn't matter much.

Legate:
Whether or not Legate is a wolf, it's quite possible there's a packmate of Lottie's among those he
called innocent.
Of course, it's also possible she killed him as a supposed seer who dreamt her
"rival wolf" Greenie, but I do think I'd be a more likely target for her pack.
Mac's pack could have killed me if it included Firefoot, or if they suspected I was a seer who'd dreamt
of Lottie, but considering the way I flip-flopped on Mac, that seems unlikely.
But at any rate, the biggest question about Legate isn't whether he's a wolf, but who killed him.
If he's a wolf we still won't know that, not knowing what pack he belonged to.

Mac:
If Mac is not a wolf, we know that Nerwen is bluffing or lying, but that doesn't matter much considering
that Lottie was a wolf and both Nerwen's accused wolves are dead.
We would know not to chase red herrings in the form of Mac's likely packmates (but are there any strong
candidates anyway?)

If Mac is a wolf, we'd proceed as we have been, pretty much.

Me:
Somebody else is probably better at figuring out what good knowing my role would do. I'm an ordo,
but if somebody can make a case that proving that would be useful, go ahead and scry me.
I can't see one, myself.

I think I'd like to give more consideration to Nog. Even though he died early, he was controversial
and, if he was a wolf, a packmate of his might have behaved in an incriminating fashion either
around the lynch, or knowing a wolf was dead.

Rikae

06-07-2015, 12:11 PM

Oh, and you guys:

129 posts to go to surpass the living thread. Get on it! What's a party without music?

Here's a message (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BjMiDZIY1bM) for someone to take back to the living.

Nogrod

06-07-2015, 12:15 PM

I've been involved with a totally another project this day but have managed to slip in every now and then to keep myself up to date. Now I'm off to prepare us some late-supper but will join the party then after for a while.

Bur just one supporting comment relating to what Legate just said (and what many of us have said): Rune is not only probably the least informative one of us to check (with me you still have the D1 wagon), but he has also been quite quiet lately which might also mean he's an ordo who just now has much more interesting things to do. I mean, if he were a wolf he'd probably show some more enthusiasm towards the game...

I see Rikae has also posted a list. Good.

I'll try to make one later on as well.

Now, kitchen calls!

Btw. did you read my suggestion from early toNight / late yesterDay - that if any of you have nice cross-tables (at least Rikae & the phantom have made arguments like "if x is a wolf s/he can't be that with y or z") could you share them with us, and what are they based on? I haven't had time or effrot to collect such a data and it would be really hard work to start gathering them now. But they could help us with no such data available to get a more clear picture of the situation (and if you let some links or hints as to where you have collected them, anyone could check them for our mutual benefit if it felt like it).

Rikae

06-07-2015, 12:19 PM

I haven't made anything like that yet, anyway. But it would be useful.

Nogrod

06-07-2015, 12:23 PM

I haven't made anything like that yet, anyway. But it would be useful.But I think you did something of the sort with your list already - pointing out possible scenarios and stuff in one collected post - which is good.

It would be nice to see even more collected effort to be sure, if you have something where to construct it from easily. I mean I'm not saying others should take huge undertakings while I just hang up with other things, but the idea was initially, that if you have some things ready at hand you could just pass to us - and maybe give them a second or thirtd thought yourselves while making a post on them?

Anyway, I'm off for a moment now...

Macalaure

06-07-2015, 12:36 PM

I'm torn.

As much as I'd like to go "told you so!" on all of you, I would also like to actually learn something myself. Legate > Rikae > Nogrod > phantom would be my order, in that case.

Not like anybody would listen to me, of course. :rolleyes: :p

Rikae

06-07-2015, 12:37 PM

Oh, one thing:

We're eight people with 2 or more wolves among us who would love to prevent our vote from going through. Even though I'm usually against organized voting schemes, I think it would be best if we discussed who to scry but let Agan & Greenie lead the voting.

A Little Green

06-07-2015, 12:55 PM

We're eight people with 2 or more wolves among us who would love to prevent our vote from going through. Even though I'm usually against organized voting schemes, I think it would be best if we discussed who to scry but let Agan & Greenie lead the voting. A potential minor hiccup: I have work very early tomorrow morning which means I need to go to sleep within an hour. So - any preferences? I'm leaning towards Legate or possibly Nog or Rikae.

Rikae

06-07-2015, 12:59 PM

I'm fine with either Legate or Nog (and if you vote for me, I'll follow that vote, since we're better off with me as a known innocent than risking a tied vote and no scry at all).

Legate of Amon Lanc

06-07-2015, 01:12 PM

I'm fine with either Legate or Nog (and if you vote for me, I'll follow that vote, since we're better off with me as a known innocent than risking a tied vote and no scry at all).

Obviously in such a way, I am more inclined towards Nog. But either way I agree that we should just follow one direction and not split the vote, so even if you choose me, I'll go with voting me (regardless of how useful or useless it is).

You aren't considering the phantom at all, therefore, I assume.

A Little Green

06-07-2015, 01:23 PM

You aren't considering the phantom at all, therefore, I assume. Not really. I think Rikae is right, his role wouldn't tell us much, and besides, even if he is a wolf he can't do much harm that could be prevented by us knowing his role.

A Little Green

06-07-2015, 01:31 PM

You really shouldn't have me make the choices here.

I think I'm going with

++Legate

I'm leaning innocent on both him and Nog, but I think Legzy is both more sinister and more informative if scried. If you guys decide to go for someone else, by all means do, there's enough of you to make it work. Anyway, that's all from me tonight. Choose well.

Sidenote. I probably won't be around much tomorrow, I'll try to drop by once or twice but my participation is likely quite limited.

Rikae

06-07-2015, 01:53 PM

Ok, let's not risk splitting the vote.

I mean, we might have enough votes to pick someone else, but say there are three wolves here and the four remaining innocents voted for Nog or me... the wolves could pile on Legate and tie the vote.

++Legate

Legate of Amon Lanc

06-07-2015, 02:33 PM

Sure sure, so be it.

++Legate

Let's also hope the next, whoever dies, will be somebody interesting. Or actually, it would be nice if they were Wolves (for instance if the packs killed each one from the other pack). But yep...

Nogrod

06-07-2015, 02:36 PM

Out of nine we need 5 votes to be sure it counts.

So I'll add the fourth.

++ Legate

And I think we can count of Agan to give the fifth.

Nogrod

06-07-2015, 02:39 PM

I can't be certain of your alignment, thus I wanted to offer you as little opportunity to sabotage the vote as possible.Compliment returned. :D

Rikae

06-07-2015, 02:41 PM

Nine! *facepalm*

I think I wasn't counting Lottie. :rolleyes:

Loslote

06-07-2015, 03:04 PM

++Legate

Fine by me. :p

Aganzir

06-07-2015, 03:05 PM

Well friends don't worry!

++Legate

That being done, I'm off to do some actual wolf hunting.

(Love the song, Rikae.)

the phantom

06-07-2015, 03:13 PM

Darn it you two! I was going to post "Mwu ha ha, now Rune, Mac, Lottie, and I will tie the vote to force no result- better hope for Agan to save you!" but now I can't. :(

Anyway, yeah, obviously it'd be kind of nice to know instead of suspect things regarding Rikae/Mac/Nog, but I do wonder if Legate is the biggest enigma overall considering Lottie's reveal on the Living Thread ("I killed him because he's the Seer!" would actually make a nice cover for losing a packmate, particularly if he placed the third packmate on his innocent list).

So no point in delaying this-

++Legate

I'm around for another hour or so before needing to step away yet again.

the phantom

06-07-2015, 03:20 PM

In complete seriousness, and with the expectation of receiving an honest result, all games aside-

Lottie, did you truly kill Legate?

Mac- did you kill Rikae?

Fact is, unless other information contradicts it, we're considering both of you Wolves. Thus-

I'm thinking it might be in our mutual best interest to be up front about these kills because-
(1) It would help us ALL hypothesize the truth of the Unknown role. (For instance, if neither pack killed Legate I might have a workable theory.) Knowing this information could help both Goods and Bads attempt to impact the outcome in a way beneficial to their sides (just based on having more knowledge).
(2) It might help us catch the opposing pack. Now, you might say it could help us catch your own, but your own kill motivations are always going to be shrouded in the usual layer of bluff/double-bluff etc. thus we can't draw better conclusions about your pack than we can the other pack. So if your kill was well thought out that may give you the edge in that we'd learn more from the other pack kill than yours.

Aganzir

06-07-2015, 03:39 PM

I started this thing over 24 hours ago but friends distracted me. Better late than never though!

DAY 1 and 2 opinions separated by |||
Brackets indicate a vague/changing opinion

NIGHT 2 VICTIMS

phantom suspected: Nogrod, Lottie, Mac, Firefoot
phantom found innocent: Aganzir, Boro, sally, Nilp

Rune suspected: Greenie
Rune found innocent: (Form)

**

NIGHT 3 VICTIMS

Macalaure suspected: Aganzir ||| Aganzir, (Legate,) Firefoot, Form, sally, Lottie
Macalaure found innocent: Rikae, Firefoot, Nilp, Legate, Greenie ||| Rikae, Legate morm, Eomer, Lommy, Lalaith, Mith

Rikae suspected: Lommy, Greenie, Mac, phantom ||| Greenie, Firefoot, Lottie
Rikae found innocent: ||| Agan, Mac, morm, (Firefoot)

Legate suspected: Greenie ||| Greenie, Boro, Firefoot, Lottie, Aganzir, (mentioned earlier but later put on his second-best zone: sally, McCab, Mac)
Legate found innocent: (Nog, Lommy, Form, Kath, Shasta, morm, Mith, Rune, Nerwen) ||| Nerwen, Lommy, Mith

Some things I noticed:

Both Lottiepack and Macpack had a reason to kill phantom. Neither had a more likely reason to kill Rune than the other.
I think it's certainly interesting that everybody who's been night killed so far (except Rune) has suspected both Lottie and Firefoot.
On NIGHT 3, both Rikae and Legate had suspected Mac before but felt better about him later.
It almost feels like both wolf packs wanted to frame Greenie.
Everybody who died in the latter set found morm more or less innocent.
Firefoot and Mac as fellows doesn't make sense but Firefoot and Lottie might. Will check later.

Anything else?

the phantom

06-07-2015, 03:53 PM

Just examining posts made the morning after my death.
He did suspect four people in #130: Nogrod, Loslote, Firefoot, and me.
...
But why was he killed? Just because he looked innocent (many argued with him, but I don't recall anyone suspecting him) and made himself the village leader? Possible. Or maybe there is in fact a wolf (or even two? wishful thinking) among his four suspects. Did Nogrod's mates take revenge? Did wolf-Lottie or wolf-Firefoot get nervous? Possible, but it doesn't seem likely.
Hmmm... That's quite interesting if Mac is in fact a Wolf (and one of the ones that killed me). If Firefoot is a Wolf (as Lottie claims) Mac seems willing to set her up, and Ff certainly seemed to start that day ready to gun back at Mac.

Later Sally concludes that the Rune kill was an attempt to kill a rival Wolf. Morm thanks that's weird because surely the Wolves would try and kill the Seer.

Then Lottie-Wolf steps in-
I didn't think it was so far fetched. Why shouldn't the wolves try to knock off a potential threat? They have to eventually, and if they think they've spotted one, especially if they don't have any leads on a Gifted - which, since the other pack went with tp, who I at least don't get Gifted vibes from, seems likely to me - why not pick off a Runewolf?
So here we have a Wolf being quite truthful (probably) about her own Wolf kill, as often happens.
Anyway, in hindsight, I think it quite likely the phantom was an ordo and thus had no qualms about painting a target on his own back (as Boro phrased it) because he's a staunch supporter of ordos sacrificing themselves for the gifted, and I think he might have also been curious about the opportunity to seize control of the dead thread.

Rune, then, was notably short-tempered yesterDay. I agree with Rikae that this could have been read as a sign of a nervous gifted, and indeed knowing Rune I think it's possible he was. Then again he is quite grumpy by nature and the overwhelming rules hardly seemed to make him happy.
This makes her look rather good, as she doesn't give the official reasoning for killing Rune, and she doesn't seem like she would've wanted to kill me.
So, basic ideas: the phantom would simply be killed because. just because. I mean, I sincerely doubt the WWs would have killed him just because he told them to do so. Who would!!! But, if tp is not a member of your pack, you probably consider him dangerous whichever the case. Imagine. If he is a Seer, you want him dead, if he is a Wolf of the opposite pack, you totally want him dead as well. And in fact, with the "kill me" encouragement, the WWs might have thought him a Hunter and wanted to get rid of him early on (especially if they felt safe from him??? Anyway, I think this is already a stretch, but simply put, there are like a million reasons to kill the Phantom).
Nice response here- very inconclusive. Provides a reason, but not just the "right" one. But insisting on denying the idea that I was killed because I wanted to be killed- that's the bit that makes him look a little suspicious (almost as if he's an offended Wolf). But not terribly suspicious.
Speaking of that, given that there was the possibility that both packs might have targeted tp if he was innocent - I mean, really! Look at it, and he actually was targeted by one pack, and I think we are clear on that there are plenty of reasons to want to kill him, so the other pack might have considered it as well, and it simply didn't for some reason. - anyway, given that possibility, I would consider tp being part of one of the packs.
Here he expresses surprise that both packs didn't target me (and I admit I was certainly rooting for it due to the possibility of wasting a kill). But would a Wolf say this? In other words, "I can't believe the other pack didn't do this. Thank goodness we didn't depend on them for it." But that's a stretch. If he's a Wolf he's nicely mimicking the innocent sound. We'll know for certain soon enough. :)
I've played a lot more with the phantom, and I think I'm one of the best when it comes to knowing his playing habits. When he wants to paint a target on his back, he will, and that's pretty much what he did. When he's an ordo, if he thinks he knows who is gifted he'll hang a large "KILL ME" sign and in that way try to protect the gifteds from the wolf-kill. That's pretty much what happened yesterday. Although, wolf is possible, because he would be a target for a rival pack as well, and we can't rule out that possibility completely.
This probably makes it very unlikely that Boro would be in Mac's pack, as he would've argued against my killing.

Macalaure

06-07-2015, 03:54 PM

Mac- did you kill Rikae?

Your mom killed Rikae. :p

I'm thinking about being productive and giving my thoughts about who Lottie's fellows and who the other three wolves might be, but since you guys wouldn't take it at face value anyway, what's the point. Worse, you would probably try to turn it all upside down for any hint of who "my packmates" are.

I'll tell you what I think if you believe me I'm innocent. Deal? :Merisu:

Rikae

06-07-2015, 03:56 PM

Oooh! I know! Maybe the special role can commit suicide and be resurrected, but do nothing else.

And maybe that is me.

And maybe Nerwen & Lottie really are the lovers and it was all a scheme to get Lottie lynched. And now my ability is redundant.

Yup.

Rikae

06-07-2015, 03:57 PM

Your mom killed Rikae. :p

I'm thinking about being productive and giving my thoughts about who Lottie's fellows and who the other three wolves might be, but since you guys wouldn't take it at face value anyway, what's the point. Worse, you would probably try to turn it all upside down for any hint of who "my packmates" are.

I'll tell you what I think if you believe me I'm innocent. Deal? :Merisu:

If you were innocent, we would probably find out eventually from Nerwen or the seer, so why not go ahead and make your contribution?

All of our work here will only be appreciated posthumously, anyway. :D

the phantom

06-07-2015, 03:59 PM

I'm with you so far, Rikae. So then what on earth was Sally up to if Lottie-Nerwen are together? :D
I'm thinking about being productive
Your mom is thinking about being productive.
I'll tell you what I think if you believe me I'm innocent. Deal?
Well then. I will agree to it as an experiment if you agree to include an explanation(s) of Nerwen's PM dream as part of the package.

the phantom

06-07-2015, 04:06 PM

Also, has it already been noted that Lottie's plea to her pack and the village to kill Firefoot may have been cover for someone in her own pack? Telling her own pack (Firefoot) obviously wouldn't make her kill herself, and if the village tries it FF can just tell them not to be silly and do what Lottie wanted them to do, since obviously Lottie can't be trusted. Just saying.

Loslote

06-07-2015, 04:07 PM

In complete seriousness, and with the expectation of receiving an honest result, all games aside-

Lottie, did you truly kill Legate?

Mac- did you kill Rikae?

Well, but I can be lazy and make you lot work harder by analyzing all possible combinations. I can still get the same amount of information about the other pack without potentially exposing my own packmates. If you guys stumble upon something, I will confirm whether or not it was the correct scenario and whether or not you've actually caught a wolf. Have fun. ;)

So here we have a Wolf being quite truthful (probably) about her own Wolf kill, as often happens.

Hilariously, I wasn't at all truthful about my own kill. I will offer you two scenarios, and I do solemnly swear that one of them is true.

1. My pack did not kill Rune. I simply found morm's reaction to Sally's suggestion suspicious.

2. My pack did kill Rune, but not primarily because we thought he was a wolf. We did think he might have been Gifted.

Like I said, one of these two scenarios is the truth. You may choose which you think is more likely.

Oooh! I know! Maybe the special role can commit suicide and be resurrected, but do nothing else.

And maybe that is me.

And maybe Nerwen & Lottie really are the lovers and it was all a scheme to get Lottie lynched. And now my ability is redundant.

Yup.

Seriously? But we worked so hard. :(

the phantom

06-07-2015, 04:10 PM

Ooo, I like Wolves that are willing to play ball. We'll have to think about this...

Aganzir

06-07-2015, 04:15 PM

I figure I'd go with it. I'd of course want the Lottie lynch to take place, but I'd tease Lottie as if I was in the competing pack. Maybe tell her Mac wasn't in my pack, and say that even without me we were going to win etc. Basically I'd try to tempt her remaining packmate(s) into Night killing me.
Not quite following you here, unless you're talking about an ordo sacrifice.

Also, Lottie should definitely adopt Nog as one of her packmates in order to throw us off by making us think she only has one partner left. If you do it, dearie, I promise I'll pretend to believe it just to annoy Nog.
Wouldn't it be cute if Lottie and phantom were actually packmates?

Also, if Lottie didn't lie, we at least know who's responsible for the dead Europeans.
*gasp* :D

Yeah, Lottie, *eat* that!
Lommy posted in the living thread about having to watch me crack up laughing at this thread. This was one of those moments. :D

Now, kitchen calls!
Ooh what did you cook?

I think it would be best if we discussed who to scry but let Agan & Greenie lead the voting.
I think this is a very good plan, especially given it's easier for us to lead than to follow. Timezone-wise, I mean. ;) I hope Legate turns out innocent too because what's better than dead Europeans controlling this thread?

I'll tell you what I think if you believe me I'm innocent. Deal?
Sadly, your reaction to Nerwen's reveal wasn't as convincing as to Rikae's reveal. Anyway - what do you think she was up to?

Macalaure

06-07-2015, 04:18 PM

Well then. I will agree to it as an experiment if you agree to include an explanation(s) of Nerwen's PM dream as part of the package.
Scroll up then. I thought about some possibilities up there. None of them seem likely, but one of them is probably true. (Unless something completely different is going on.) Obviously I can't explain them. I don't know what Kuru is up to with his secret rules either.

Nogrod

06-07-2015, 04:18 PM

Top level argumentation from the 'Downs Werewolf
This makes her look rather good, as she doesn't give the official reasoning for killing Rune, and she doesn't seem like she would've wanted to kill me.;)

Firefoot and Lottie could indeed be a company rather than rivals. A bold tactics but in this kind of a game possibly worthwhile. With Lottie going like maniac there clearly is room for Firefoot to say "do you honestly listen to that madWoman" - and she can nicely remind everyone that naturally the wolves don't know the real identities of their rival-pack so Lottie is hitting in the dark as anyone else and well, is just a raving lunatic.

Kind of a nice trick, actually. If they pulled it.

the phantom

06-07-2015, 04:19 PM

Not quite following you here, unless you're talking about an ordo sacrifice.
Exactly. But how likely is it that other Ordos would do what I would do? (Basically, does my reaction matter at all in determining whether Ff reacted properly?).

Macalaure

06-07-2015, 04:21 PM

Anyway - what do you think she was up to?

It's kind of hard to get motivated to post some long-ish maybe-helpful stuff if nobody appears to be reading my posts anyway. :rolleyes:

the phantom

06-07-2015, 04:22 PM

Top level argumentation from the 'Downs Werewolf
That is a good argument for Lommy in this case. If player X is against killing player Y, but then player Y is Night killed, it is less likely that player X was a part of it (packmates would've had to go strictly against that player). Yes, that assumes player X is telling the truth, but it certainly seemed that she was.

Legate of Amon Lanc

06-07-2015, 04:24 PM

Some things I noticed:

Both Lottiepack and Macpack had a reason to kill phantom. Neither had a more likely reason to kill Rune than the other.
I think it's certainly interesting that everybody who's been night killed so far (except Rune) has suspected both Lottie and Firefoot.
On NIGHT 3, both Rikae and Legate had suspected Mac before but felt better about him later.
It almost feels like both wolf packs wanted to frame Greenie.
Everybody who died in the latter set found morm more or less innocent.
Firefoot and Mac as fellows doesn't make sense but Firefoot and Lottie might. Will check later.

Anything else?
Pretty good work there, Agan. For that matter, obviously if it comes to reasons for killing people, there might have been other reasons than just because they suspected someone; they might have just seemed Seerish (based on behavior, based on suspecting someone the Wolf-pack thought was a Wolf from another pack etc.). But generally, yeah.

If he's a Wolf he's nicely mimicking the innocent sound. We'll know for certain soon enough. :)
Thanks, you will. But I am innocent anyway.

I'm thinking about being productive and giving my thoughts about who Lottie's fellows and who the other three wolves might be, but since you guys wouldn't take it at face value anyway, what's the point. Worse, you would probably try to turn it all upside down for any hint of who "my packmates" are.

I'll tell you what I think if you believe me I'm innocent. Deal? :Merisu:
I believe you are innocent! Now, tell me?

I'm thinking about being productiveYour mom is thinking about being productive.
Now now, guys... behave :D

Also, has it already been noted that Lottie's plea to her pack and the village to kill Firefoot may have been cover for someone in her own pack? Telling her own pack (Firefoot) obviously wouldn't make her kill herself, and if the village tries it FF can just tell them not to be silly and do what Lottie wanted them to do, since obviously Lottie can't be trusted. Just saying.
Yes, that was one of the possibilities that crossed my mind: but it would still expose Firefoot, and since people know there are two packs, it would be dangerous. Of course, unless Lottie counted on the villagers not lynching FF because they would think "let's not waste our lynch on FF, the other pack will get her" and the Wolves from the other pack thinking "haha, Lottie probably framed an innocent, let's leave her around for the village to lynch."

Personally I hope it is not the case, although anything is of course possible. Depends also on the village, and on the Wolves.

Hilariously, I wasn't at all truthful about my own kill. I will offer you two scenarios, and I do solemnly swear that one of them is true.

1. My pack did not kill Rune. I simply found morm's reaction to Sally's suggestion suspicious.

2. My pack did kill Rune, but not primarily because we thought he was a wolf. We did think he might have been Gifted.

Like I said, one of these two scenarios is the truth. You may choose which you think is more likely.
Just reminds me of those old logical games. What if you put it that way for us, for instance, so that we could decipher it? You know, such as: "I will tell you three statements, one contains two truths, one two falsehoods, and one contains one truth and one falsehood. 1. I did not kill Rune. I killed Legate. 2. The other pack killed Legate. I killed Rikae. 3. I did not kill Rikae. I killed Rune."

Nogrod

06-07-2015, 04:25 PM

Ooh what did you cook?A late-night salad (lettuce, new cucumbers and baby-tomatoes) of smoked whitefish (cisco) and new potatoes with eggs and dill-oil.

It was decent for an early summer night. Missed the cool Riesling though. :)

the phantom

06-07-2015, 04:26 PM

Ah, you know, I do recall one of your theories, Mac.
(goes to get it)
So the seer is allowed, maybe once in the game, to send two of their dreams to one person of their choice. They send the identities of two wolves they've dreamed of, but they chose poorly, and sent it to evil Nerwen. Nerwen identifies one wolf from the other pack (Lottie) and feeds her to the mob. The other wolf is one of her own, and she switches him/her, instead naming me, who she and others have been suspecting all along.

But this doesn't make sense either. The seer must've dreamed of some innocent, some of which should still be alive. They would've chosen one of them, and not taken a risk.
Why couldn't the power have been sending THAT night's dreams (and that night the Seer picked you and Lottie). Thus Nerwolf could feed the village Lottie and pretend you were guilty and never be caught (because the dream went to her rather than the Seer.

How about that as an explanation?

Nogrod

06-07-2015, 04:33 PM

It's kind of hard to get motivated to post some long-ish maybe-helpful stuff if nobody appears to be reading my posts anyway. :rolleyes:I am actually interested.

Also, we're getting some (probably) quite interesting things going on here when the Day starts, so if you Mac want to be heard, or want to help, I think this could be the time.

Aganzir

06-07-2015, 04:35 PM

Exactly. But how likely is it that other Ordos would do what I would do? (Basically, does my reaction matter at all in determining whether Ff reacted properly?).
I would probably have reacted similarly to Firefoot, but then, I have a tendency - wolf or innocent - to defend myself vocally against poor suspicions (you could argue all suspicion seems groundless to me though :rolleyes:). And in this case, Firefoot had indeed voted for Mac at a critical-ish moment.

It's kind of hard to get motivated to post some long-ish maybe-helpful stuff if nobody appears to be reading my posts anyway.
Aw sorry Mac I went back and saw the post phantom just quoted here - I'd forgotten about it because that's pretty much when friends used strong language to tell me to stop stalking the game on my phone.

I want to say I'm not convinced of your guilt. At the moment it seems more convenient to assume Nerwen was telling the truth, but I want you to know I'll listen to whatever you have to say. I kind of wish we'd checked you toNIGHT just to be on the safe side about this, but it is true that Legate has more leads.

A late-night salad (lettuce, new cucumbers and baby-tomatoes) of smoked whitefish (cisco) and new potatoes with eggs and dill-oil.
Sounds lovely! I had a nicoise salad and actually now that I started talking about it, I think I'm going to get another plate.

Why couldn't the power have been sending THAT night's dreams (and that night the Seer picked you and Lottie). Thus Nerwolf could feed the village Lottie and pretend you were guilty and never be caught (because the dream went to her rather than the Seer.

How about that as an explanation?
This occurred to me earlier.