Tol-in-Gaurhoth CXIV – The Evil Breath of Morgoth in Dor-lómin, game thread

[Brinniel]

If he's a wolf, I wager Brinn is one too. He pretty much admitted to trying to save her on Day1, which just sounded off to me.
Well we aren't both wolves since I'm not one, but I do agree his save of me seems off. As I stated before, maybe a wolf trying to come off as innocent by trying to save another innocent.

I could vote Hui, but I would prefer Inzil. Feeling less sure about Mac - his latest posts feel okay, but I keep going back and forth on this.

[Boromir88]

On Lhuna...

Her smaller posts with shorter comments look innocent. Bringing up points about a ranger reveal and wondering why Lottie felt the need to say if Kit's a wolf and faking, the real ranger should not reveal.

Her longer posts looking at individuals and her suspects makes me more wary. To save Rune's eyes (a sentiment I try to agree with but doesn't always happen). I'll just link the post here (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=723678&postcount=394)..

I'm having trouble following what she's actually suspicious of Lommy of other than a comment when voting "let's make this interesting." Then it's just "You would know. Tricksy. False."

Then her post before her vote...here (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=723715&postcount=425)

Has Lommy in the suspects list, but there's no input.

I'm having a lot of trouble figuring out why Lhuna found Lommy suspicious at all.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Hey whatever. I may just as well do something on time for once, and offer some options.

++Huinesoron

And perhaps not only the votes themselves, but also the current "setup of bandwagons" may get us some information.

[Thinlómien]

This doesn't make sense to me. As I recall, Lommy started toDay sounding almost outraged that people seemed to be giving Brinn a pass. Did I miss something in the middle where this changed? I don't really see why we should give someone a pass if she hasn't done anything to appear less suspicious, or less likely to be guilty. Likewise, I don't see how other people being eager to accuse and/or defend her means we should give her a pass - if anything, it would mean more to analyse in case she was lynched. Lommy, help?I don't recall being outraged about that, but - I started the day thinking Mac and Brinn are equally implicated by and equally touchy about Rikae's death. Then I actually read through Rikae's posts (italics because I thought I said this 20 times :p) and came to the conclusion they don't look like a seer who dreamt of Brinnwolf which made me consider it less likely - but not impossible - that a wolf pack with Brinn would target Rikae. While Mac's paranoia about Rikae seemed so outlandish it seemed to me the same paranoia could easily have led a wolf pack with Mac to kill Rikae.


edit: xed with everyone after what I quoted

[Thinlómien]

Also guys guess what happened?
I was reading a Lommy post and Joni Mitchell’s “Both Sides Now” came on.:D:D:D

Btw:

Lommy -> Macalaure
Kath -> Inzil
Lhuna -> Lommy
Macalaure -> Lommy 2
QT -> Brinniel
Greenie -> Macalaure 2
Legate -> Huinesoron

[Macalaure]

Commenting on a few things over the last 2 pages:

Finding out Mac's role will also shed a light on Brinn.
Would I vote*Mac*based on his individual words alone? Nope. Could I vote for Mac just to flush out who needs him out? High possibility,
I agree with this assessment and think a lot of light will be shed.
I am leaning more toward Mac based on my assessment earlier, but I don't feel overly confident in casting that vote.

Kill the patient to autopsy him?? :eek:


Rereading Huin’s post while I’m looking over posts raises my blood pressure.


The QT Thread went for Brinniel. The way I understand it, Gala is in charge of this vote toDay, right? It’s surprising that this vote went to Rikae’s top suspect.


About Lommy’s Mac & Green wolf-on-wolf idea… I think we’re going at each other a bit too hard for that to be likely. Ah, but then again, under Lommy’s assumption that I’m a wolf that has given up (which of course doesn’t make sense :p ) it might make some sense.

If i ever mod a game, it will be with a tweet-version with a character and post cap for the participants.
*Officially nominating Rune to mod the next game.*

That's one of the main points against Brinn which has up to now been brought up ad nauseam by the world & his wife, starting from Rikae onward and (IIRC, need to check but I think) including Mac at some point? Why reiterate it?
Because she’s a wolf trying to string the village along?

If you're a wolf, you're eeeevil, you know that?
:Merisu:

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

On Lhuna...

Her longer posts looking at individuals and her suspects makes me more wary. To save Rune's eyes (a sentiment I try to agree with but doesn't always happen). I'll just link the post here (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=723678&postcount=394)..

I'm having trouble following what she's actually suspicious of Lommy of other than a comment when voting "let's make this interesting." Then it's just "You would know. Tricksy. False."



Thank You!

Nice and concise post, also you make a valid point about Lhuna mentioning Lommy early on, but actually giving us basically nothing prior to the vote.

I will consider moving her to the neutral category on my epic list.

[A Little Green]

I don't recall being outraged about that, but - I started the day thinking Mac and Brinn are equally implicated by and equally touchy about Rikae's death. Then I actually read through Rikae's posts (italics because I thought I said this 20 times ) and came to the conclusion she doesn't look like a seer who dreamt of Brinnwolf which made me consider it less likely - but not impossible - that a wolf pack with Brinn would target Rikae. While Mac's paranoia about Rikae seemed so outlandish it seemed to me the same paranoia could easily have led a wolf pack with Mac to kill Rikae.Ah okay, makes sense now. I went back to the beginning of the day and the bit I got the outrage vibes from was this abundance of questionmarks:
But I already see people talking as if the bandwagon against Brinn is a sign of her innocence? No???

[Lalaith]

It's all very well saying I'm quiet, people, but this is a noisy village. I've been asking questions which no-one has listened to or answered. For example, why are some people still suspecting Kit.
On the subject of which, I've been re-reading and found a couple of other people I feel quite good about.
Lottie
Shasta - I really like how he handled the Kit situation, trying to defuse it without drawing attention to it.
Good point, and it makes me think better of you too, for pointing it out.
I'm not happy about a lot of things including the current candidates for lynching, none of whom I'm particularly keen to vote for.
I thought Boro was less weird today but re-reading, he's still being weird. Stream of consciousness still strong. Look at this:
Trying to put on my wolf gloves and mask, anytime people come out saying the kill was a "frame" to set up an innocent for an easy lynch, it pings (sorry Pitch ) my radar. I recall more than once of past experiences where we go through 3-4 day/night cycles without lynching a wolf. But the only deaths are ordos, and it winds up destroying the pack. The longer gifted stay in, the more they start to uncover, the more they're able to figure out and coordinate dreams/protections/hunts amongst themselves and eventually the wolfpack runs out of "unknown ordos" to kill. Bottom line is, every pack (maybe not) but purely on theory and experience you go for gifteds first. No matter the cost if it makes a fellow wolf look bad or not.
This is an example. All he is saying here is "wolves are more interested in killing gifteds than framing innocents" and takes a looong paragraph to do it.
Also - there's not been enough focus on Pitch. He was the third person on Rikae's list but no-one's talking enough about him.
And finally -
Legate is still really suspicious to me. I still can't follow his reasoning. Correct me if I'm wrong, but on the one hand he's angry with people for talking about KitRanger but on the other he's putting her quite high on his suspect lists.

[Macalaure]

I might not be able to stay until the deadline, so probably my final thoughts:

Very bad
Huin, Greenie

Maybe bad
Lommy

Not sure about
Lhuna, Loslote, Brinniel, Boro, Sally, Lalaith - I forgot to look at Lalaith!

Probably not bad
Inzil, Legate, Shasta, Rune, Eonwe

Likely not bad
Pitch, THE Ka, Kath

[Pitchwife]

Correction to #484: Not including Mac, his point against Brinn (which Greenie called 'the most suspicious thing' she'd seen yesterDay) was something else. Still.


On one hand I'd kind of like to lynch Mac just so I don't have to worry & wonder about him for the rest of the game, but that's a ****ty reason, so right now I'd rather not. On the other hand I'm less and less comfortable with narrowing down the choice to either Mac or Brinn (yes I know, I've done it too above). And on the gripping hand I'm not really sure what's going on between Lhuna, Mac and Lommy.


I could still vote Zil, or I could actually get behind Legate's Hui vote. A few of Hui's posts look like subtly sewing suspicion while not getting too involved in anything.

[Huinesoron]

Okay, I've snatched a few minutes. To the people suspicious of me - it seems like most of this comes out of my misreading/over-simplifying things? I've taken the concrit on board, and will make sure to read more carefully toMorrow. (I have a bad habit of semi-skimming over bits of posts, and then forgetting that there was anything between the first and last points to catch my eye.) I welcome the scrutiny - all you'll find is that I've tried my best to follow the evidence.

ToMorrow is the weekend; not sure how that'll affect my posting, but I'll definitely try to answer any questions about my thinking.

(And to whoever said I sound like a salesman - probably! I've spent the past five or six years routinely sending emails with 'thank you, and best regards' at the end, it's a hard habit to break!)

Checking for cross-posts... okay, I got a vote, and I'm bad for Mac's blood pressure, but ultimately I don't see anything to change my stated intention (specifically including, nothing in Mac's post (last second edit: posts) allays my worries). So since I now have to go:

++Macalaure

hS

[Thinlómien]

I'm just saying that if both Mac and I survive toDay I'm going to have the same headcahe toMorrow as I do toDay. :rolleyes::D

If i ever mod a game, it will be with a tweet-version with a character and post cap for the participants.
*Officially nominating Rune to mod the next game.*This would be epic! And quite a challenge for some of us... :D

I'm not happy about a lot of things including the current candidates for lynching, none of whom I'm particularly keen to vote for. Well, who would you vote? It's not too late to add another name, but soon it will be.


edit: xed with Hui

[Boromir88]

I thought Boro was less weird today but re-reading, he's still being weird. Stream of consciousness still strong. Look at this:

This is an example. All he is saying here is "wolves are more interested in killing gifteds than framing innocents" and takes a looong paragraph to do it.


Apologies, but you know those "what kind of messenger are you?" things. Do you give 1 word/1 sentence response or a long block paragraph? I'm the latter, but I'm trying to work on it! :)

[Thinlómien]

Lommy -> Macalaure
Kath -> Inzil
Lhuna -> Lommy
Macalaure -> Lommy 2
QT -> Brinniel
Greenie -> Macalaure 2
Legate -> Huinesoron
Huinesoron -> Macalaure 3

[Pitchwife]

it's all very well saying i'm quiet, people, but this is a noisy village. I've been asking questions which no-one has listened to or answered. For example, why are some people still suspecting kit.
[...]
legate is still really suspicious to me. I still can't follow his reasoning. Correct me if i'm wrong, but on the one hand he's angry with people for talking about kitranger but on the other he's putting her quite high on his suspect lists.
+1

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

I am going with my gut feeling (and the reasons on the list of doom)

++Loslote

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Hn. I'm caught up, for the most part, and I'm still not not okay with a Brinniel or Pitchwife QT today.

Gut instinct has me liking Lottie and Eonwe, as well.

I don't have a compelling reason not to QT Mac, either. I think I'm still in find-people-I-like mode. Speaking of, I thought Boro's entrance today was good, I liked his thought process re: Brinn.

I will likely be voting Brinn/Pitch/Mac. Pitch may be the least likely of those three because he probably needs a devoted reread. We'll see what I feel like in a few minutes.

[Lalaith]

Ugh. I don't like the choices on this lynch list. Not particularly suspicious of any of them.
Brinn would be my least worst choice but it sticks in the craw to have my vote dictated by a cobbler.
If I vote for Legate will I be throwing away my vote?

[Shastanis Althreduin]

The more I stare at that QT vote for Brinniel the more I want to test it. I think G55 is bluffing.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Ugh. I don't like the choices on this lynch list. Not particularly suspicious of any of them.
Brinn would be my least worst choice but it sticks in the craw to have my vote dictated by a cobbler.
If I vote for Legate will I be throwing away my vote?

That appears to have been the effect of the vote, for sure. No one else has voted Brinn.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Legate is still really suspicious to me. I still can't follow his reasoning. Correct me if I'm wrong, but on the one hand he's angry with people for talking about KitRanger but on the other he's putting her quite high on his suspect lists.

Because, unlike other people, I never used the R-word and never will until anything is proven anywhere. And innocent villagers should know when to keep silent.
At the same time, Kit's remark could have been absolutely anything, ergo, that's how I am taking it. And I have been suspecting her (on the basis of her posting).
I think that should be fairly understandable.

[Boromir88]

Of those who currently have votes. I do not want to vote Lommy, Inzil or Huey.

I'm perturbed by Lhuna, quite a lot. Despite the bad feelings, I always worry about voting for someone and starting a bandwagon against someone unable to be here to "defend" xemself. Even though, based on Lhuna's own logic 1 vote a bandwagon does not make.

I'm probably giving too much consideration to the QT vote of Brinn. As others have said G55 wouldn't know Brinn's allegiance either way, so could just be an attempt to throw us off.

I've said nothing about Mac, because everyone else has said quite a lot. He looks the suspicious and paranoid part and then he doesn't. His vote for Lommy doesn't feel right, but could be from I just don't find Lommy suspicious.

[Thinlómien]

Lommy -> Macalaure
Kath -> Inzil
Lhuna -> Lommy
Macalaure -> Lommy 2
QT -> Brinniel
Greenie -> Macalaure 2
Legate -> Huinesoron
Huinesoron -> Macalaure 3
Rune -> Loslote

11 votes left (?)

~*~

The more I stare at that QT vote for Brinniel the more I want to test it. I think G55 is bluffing. But what does she know? Why put any weight on Gal's guesses of who the wolves are, if they even are her guesses? I think she just wants to cause chaos by adding a controversial player to the mix. Which doesn't really say anything about Brinn.

[Inziladun]

The more I stare at that QT vote for Brinniel the more I want to test it. I think G55 is bluffing.

I trust Brinn not at all, but G55 knows nothing about her, all the same. Just something to keep in mind.

x/d with Legate, Boro, and Lommy

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

I'm probably giving too much consideration to the QT vote of Brinn. As others have said G55 wouldn't know Brinn's allegiance either way, so could just be an attempt to throw us off.
I trust Brinn not at all, but G55 knows nothing about her, all the same. Just something to keep in mind.
Public service announcement (bolding added):

Second: the QT vote. Absolutely what I would expect from a Cobbler vote, but even, possibly, could be something they agreed on. I personally feel nothing wrong with pursuing Brinnwagon further, regardless whether it's been "blessed" by the Cobbler or not. It will only leave us to wonder. And let's keep in our heads the mantra: the Cobbler doesn't know anyone's roles, the Cobbler doesn't know anyone's roles, the Cobbler doesn't know anyone's roles. This is literally a vote to mess with our heads (even if it may have something else in, too - but it has this, for sure).

[Boromir88]

That appears to have been the effect of the vote, for sure. No one else has voted Brinn.

Problem I'm having is not just the QT vote, but after Brinn's initial comments about Rikae's death pointing to her, she's moved on to other people. Mac's been more insistent on the Rikae kill framing him.

[Thinlómien]

The more people vote in the last 15min, the more chaotic this will be. Wolves may have a reason to hold onto their votes in case they need to save packmates, but innocents could do something to alleviate the upcoming chaos a little? Plus, if anyone wants to add a new name to the mix, it's now or never.

[Kitanna]

Here's some rushed thoughts onHuinesoron
YesterDay, he came down hard on Lommy, initially for what looked to me like a normal "woe onto Day 1 and chaos" post. But he kept on it.
At the same time he threw light suspicion at LGP and also really pushed for "why is Mac so suspicious? And he kept pushing it, though Mac didn't ever appear to be a contender to be lynched. Then when Brinn fell under scrutiny he did the same sort of thing. Ultimately voting G55
I will - probably in about 15 minutes - vote for Pitch (preferably) or G55 (if necessary), because I'm suspicious of both and don't trust the Brinn-wagon.
I think that's because my wolf-lean was initially based on her as part of a Pitch-G55 pack, which doesn't make much sense for a Cobbler.Is how he starts the Day. Which, why not have a cobbler in that group? I think it makes sense for a cobbler to propose such an idea, then back away. In the same way I could believe it of a wolf.
And is back on his Lommy lynch train. Still not seeing why, then again, I haven't dug in on Lommy too much. Still it seems weird how he always keeps her there, ready to lynch, but then goes a different direction.
Timeline check: cross-posted with me (6 minutes earlier), or written after seeing it?
I feel he wants to get credit for saying "let's back off, Kit, shall we?" When it wasn't really necessary to establish a timeline for that. I revealed myself when enough people brought up my fake reveal reaction and I said I was done engaging on the subject. From a village standpoint, yeah, let it go, because innocents commenting on it are just digging themselves into a hole for wolves to hide in. But it alarms me Huin went out of his way to establish who said it first.
After a Day of demanding why people saw Mac as suspicious, and in my frantic refreshing to stay onto of new posts I see he's voted Mac.
I think that raises him from 'moderate' to 'probable' wolf in my estimation. Sadly for Mac, with both of them having a vote, it doesn't make me think he himself is less suspicious - accusing your packmate right before one of you gets lynched sounds like a great way to alleviate suspicion of them.
Rereading Huin’s post while I’m looking over posts raises my blood pressure.
Yes! This! A million times! If I could use profanities here, I would.

So final thoughts on the Day.
Eonwe I didn't like his vote yesterDay and nothing he's said since makes me feel any better about him.
Mac I feel lynching Mac or Brinn would be very telling, but I don't want to "kill the patient for the autopsy" or however Mac put it. ;)
Huin I feel if Huin is a wolf, then look deeper into Lommy. He has been harping on her since the start, but doesn't act on it. He spoke a lot, but I don't feel he always said anything, which is funny because he leveled that same statement at others yesterDay. He demands reasons for Mac and Brinn being so suspicious, but I don't feel like he really looked at people's reasons of why in the first place. He just saw these names that were gaining just enough traction and pounced. Like if they were lynched and turned out innocent he would look good. But then today he votes Mac. Erm...ok? Which at the beginning of the day, after reviewing Day 1, I'd have voted Mac too, but now? I feel like there's more to go on elsewhere.
And then the "leave Kit alone" timeline Huin tries to establish worries me.

++Huinesoron

[Thinlómien]

Lommy -> Macalaure
Kath -> Inzil
Lhuna -> Lommy
Macalaure -> Lommy 2
QT -> Brinniel
Greenie -> Macalaure 2
Legate -> Huinesoron
Huinesoron -> Macalaure 3
Rune -> Loslote
Kitanna -> Huinesoron 2

10 votes left

[Loslote]

Left to vote:

Me
Pitchwife
Zil
Boro
Lalaith
Brinniel
Eönwë
THE Ka
Sally
Shasta

We are really coming down to the wire here. I'm leaning towards voting Huinesoron.

[THE Ka]

Well, if Mac is a wolf, he clearly started the Day with the mindset that he's a lost cause because Rikae's death points to him anyway so perhaps he could then at least do his packmates a service by trying to attract as much attention as possible? I still don't understand why macwolf would be this paranoid/suicidal, but I see even less reason for ordomac to act this way.

That is a possibility, that Mac has weighed the chances of survival and rehearsed his actions with compatriots. Rikae's death also points to who they were most suspicious of as well near the end of Day 1. Would they want to be as associated to Mac though knowing this?
Besides Mac, Brinn was another who toDay put out that due to Rikae's removal overNight and their vote, that it was a frame to sway players to think that Brinn was a wolf who needed to be saved by removing Rikae's further suspicion. I'm not inclined to think the wolves wouldn't think that far ahead themselves.

...

I've gone back and looked a little bit more at who was focusing on Mac's statements and posts about himself.

Second, even if the wolves would kill just to frame somebody, he ignores the possibility that this might implicate someone other than himself. This is very close to how Brinn, too, is convinced that the kill was engineered just to frame her.
[…]Conclusions? I’d be very surprised if both Mac and Brinn are innocent. But I also have a hard time seeing them as fellow wolves.

'he ignores the possibility that this might implicate someone other than himself'.
Which might just be the point. Pushing a Macwagon sounds like a safe vote for the wolves, whether he is one of their number or no. Which makes me wonder if the wolves are stumped on other players like Pitch or Kit?


And yes, there are more details, but with the amount of words that have been thrown around you can build some kind of case against everyone. The fact remains that his case against Greenie relies heavily on 'this is exactly how I’d expect a Green wolf to act'.

Mac mentions in #331 that he 'got some fire late yesterDay from Greenie' and believes Green would push for a vote for him toDay.

Greenie in #341 has no overt criticism of Mac's claims or comment. Mostly plays along in quotes.

Brinn in #343 summarizes Mac's #111 post, states he starts to suspect Brinn. Doesn't agree that Rikae killed off was to explicitly frame Mac.

...

Maybe I'm hung up on details and still suspicious from the Day before, but I find it rather interesting that Brinn brings up what is obvious about the Rikae framing for her, then simmers down on it to weigh in on Mac's suspicious framing stories. Speaks of possibly nudging a fellow to lay off one story and go focus on another to drive a bandwagon for innocents who are at a loss with their vote.

Unless they were counting on that if one of them got lynched, this would give the other a free pass?

I could see it, an obvious play that's too obvious to be believed, so is an excellent cover... but I'm wondering why it's being pointed out.


Seems to me her attitude was simple to create possible discussions in which Wolves could jump at people or innocents could misjudge people or whatever. Even if G55 wasn't sure whether Rikae was innocent or not, she could simply trust the WWs to sort it out.

As for her mentioning you - it may be nothing more and nothing less than wanting to drag more people into the debate: either you, because you already "showed interest", or to alert others that they should participate as well. Framing or not framing you she would leave for you to sort out - if you were a Wolf, you'd probably make sure you didn't get too muddled in this (which you didn't), if you weren't, then good riddance.

'would leave for you to sort out' and the reasons given are extremely insightful. Does it make me slightly suspicious of Legate? Yes.
I also know him to deliberate this way, so it appears as safe and not unusual.


Mac - I have absolutely zero idea whether he had just gone crazy-obsessed with himself or what. I would not vote him based on that, but I need to re-check all his posts again, if it's possible.

Reasonably cannot fault Legate on this deduction, since this was one of my own first suspicions about Mac.

Mac seems to be working overtime to get the "they thought Rikae was the seer and wanted to frame me" off the ground. I do not like it. It's possible to say the wolves looked for someone to frame up and that's why Rikae was chosen, but I think the more likely explanation is they thought in light of G55 dying a cobbler, Rikae would potentially be assumed innocent.

Yes, along with some additional help it seems from Brinn and slightly from Loslote.

I am very concerned by Mac's response to the Night kill. It feels to me like he was very prepared to insist that it was a frame job, not a Macwolf killing a possible Seer, almost like he knew it was coming and had a whole Night to work up the paranoia. He is definitely high on my suspect list.

The tone in this is a bit polished. Of course we all want to get our ideas across correctly, but a bit of distance from subject and lack of contractions. Lottie has answered questions directly and in a timely manner so it's a mix up between these rather polished responses and then more familiar ones. It's giving me some suspicion this isn't just a tactic to skirt the radar.

Greenie mentioned yesterDay that Mac's analysis post of Brinn reads like someone talking themselves into suspecting someone else, which most often happens when a wolf is looking for a reason to suspect an innocent. So I definitely don't trust him at this point.

My inclination would be to vote Zil, but I like this argument for learning more about Brinn's role by voting Mac. I could go either way.

This sounds like changing one's words to something softer to placate, test the waters, and quietly push a notion across the table. It's rather safe and much too consistent.

++Loslote

As I've ruminated in earlier posts and this one, I wanted to take a hard look at those mentioning Mac's behaviour, perhaps not committed, but throwing it out there enough times to spark more interest and make other players focus in on it. When it comes to wagons over the 'Rikae-framing ploy of wolves', you could just as easily push Brinn since they mentioned the same sentiment. Though, I start to see that the Brinn framing wagon is backed away from as if wolves were shaking two rattles in our faces and seeing which one we prefer and Brinn wasn't drawing as much eyes as Mac since she stopped giving as much a performance.

I'm not voting for Mac, because it's too obvious and appears as if to me at least, he's being subtly coached to take a fall. If he's a wolf doing it as others have mentioned, then it's because it's likely over a consensus with fellow pack mates and scripted. If he's innocent, then pretty much the same for the wolves as he's a convenient 'suspicion' from Rikae the previous Day that they know player's would have itching in the back of their minds. I'm not interested in being corralled into a bandwagon, even by the fairest words.
In short, I'm sticking to my earlier questions on identifying who is pushing for Mac, consistently, subtly at times, and buried here and there. I just don't see a lot of information to be revealed about others from just picking Mac, as he is his most and loudest trumpeter.

[Thinlómien]

Left to vote:

Me
Pitchwife
Zil
Boro
Urwen
Lalaith
Brinniel
Eönwë
THE Ka
Sally
Shasta

Minus Urwen, who has left the game!

[Thinlómien]

Lommy -> Macalaure
Kath -> Inzil
Lhuna -> Lommy
Macalaure -> Lommy 2
QT -> Brinniel
Greenie -> Macalaure 2
Legate -> Huinesoron
Huinesoron -> Macalaure 3
Rune -> Loslote
Kitanna -> Huinesoron 2
THE Ka -> Loslote 2

9 votes left

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Lommy -> Macalaure
Kath -> Inzil
Lhuna -> Lommy
Macalaure -> Lommy 2
QT -> Brinniel
Greenie -> Macalaure 2
Legate -> Huinesoron
Huinesoron -> Macalaure 3
Rune -> Loslote

11 votes left (?)

~*~

But what does she know? Why put any weight on Gal's guesses of who the wolves are, if they even are her guesses? I think she just wants to cause chaos by adding a controversial player to the mix. Which doesn't really say anything about Brinn.

Sure. Apropos of anything else, I just feel like G55 voted Brinn in hopes that no one else would, and I perversely want to test that because I am a contrarian and a gambler. Whether I think Brinn is a decent QT (I do) and whether G55 does (who knows/cares?) is entirely independent of that. :p

[Pitchwife]

You know what, let's.

++Huinesoron

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

We are really coming down to the wire here. I'm leaning towards voting Huinesoron.

As one wise, kind, charming old man from another universum once said: "Dew it!"

EDIT: x-ed with many

[satansaloser2005]

Lottie or Mac. Lottie or Mac.

Voting in a couple. Still on the phone, but trying to make up my mind.

[Thinlómien]

Lommy -> Macalaure
Kath -> Inzil
Lhuna -> Lommy
Macalaure -> Lommy 2
QT -> Brinniel
Greenie -> Macalaure 2
Legate -> Huinesoron
Huinesoron -> Macalaure 3
Rune -> Loslote
Kitanna -> Huinesoron 2
THE Ka -> Loslote 2
Pitchwife -> Huinesoron 3 (Mac still on the lead)

8 votes left

~*~

This Huinewagon is staring to look interesting, just saying, regardless of his role...

[Loslote]

As one wise, kind, charming old man from another universum once said: "Dew it!"

Yeah, okay.

++Huinesoron

[Inziladun]

I'd still prefer Brinn, Mac, or Lottie, but it may be academic.

[Thinlómien]

Lommy -> Macalaure
Kath -> Inzil
Lhuna -> Lommy
Macalaure -> Lommy 2
QT -> Brinniel
Greenie -> Macalaure 2
Legate -> Huinesoron
Huinesoron -> Macalaure 3
Rune -> Loslote
Kitanna -> Huinesoron 2
THE Ka -> Loslote 2
Pitchwife -> Huinesoron 3
Loslote -> Huinesoron 4

7 votes left

[satansaloser2005]

Better odds right now on him.

++Mac

Sorry, love. :(

[Loslote]

These close deadlines are wild. :eek:

[Thinlómien]

Lommy -> Macalaure
Kath -> Inzil
Lhuna -> Lommy
Macalaure -> Lommy 2
QT -> Brinniel
Greenie -> Macalaure 2
Legate -> Huinesoron
Huinesoron -> Macalaure 3
Rune -> Loslote
Kitanna -> Huinesoron 2
THE Ka -> Loslote 2
Pitchwife -> Huinesoron 3
Loslote -> Huinesoron 4
Sally -> Macalaure 4 (Hui still in the lead)

6 votes left

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

These close deadlines are wild. :eek:

I am franticly refreshing the site.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

So we're all aware, I'm aware that G55 is uninformed. The whole point of the Cobbler role is to aid the wolves, though, and to do that, you have to take a stab at finding them - the Cobbler is going to be doing the same exercises in deduction we are, just for opposite reasons.

It's an interesting situation. G55 obviously doesn't know for sure who the wolves are, but she can think she does. And you're right, that doesn't actually matter. But I just have a feeling G55's using the QT vote on Brinn is designed to make us not vote there, and because she's evil, I want to do the opposite.

I'm not saying I will, I'm saying I want to (and I might.)

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

That being said, I am surprised at the sudden turnout about Lottie, but I am having positive feelings about it too. The question being, nothing of this matters until the fat lady sings, right? (Seriously why does my brain keep coming up with this kind of phrases at this hour?)

Aside from those whose names are flying about this Evening, I suggest keeping eye on Greenie.

[Inziladun]

Because I distrust Lottie, and to a lesser extent, Pitch:

++Mac

[Brinniel]

Gah, I really wanted to vote Inzil toDay but I think I would rather see Hui lynched over Mac.

[Pitchwife]

The tone in this is a bit polished. Of course we all want to get our ideas across correctly, but a bit of distance from subject and lack of contractions.
You mean you suspect people because they don't sound like Data?:eek:
This is quite fascinating, Captain.

[Eönwë]

Ok, since my last post, Mac is looking better to me, and I've never thought that Lottie has seemed wolfish (but I will try to reread toMorrow if I'm still around).

I'm still open to a Brinn vote and am open to a Huey vote, but the former is seeming less and less likely.

edit: x-ed since Lottie's #544

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Well now it hardly matters, anyway - the choice is Hui or Mac. So now I'm gonna stare at who's voting who for a moment.

[Loslote]

You mean you suspect people because they don't sound like Data?:eek:
This is quite fascinating, Captain.

Yeah, never thought I'd get a vote because I said "He is" instead of "He's" :p

[satansaloser2005]

Lommy -> Macalaure
Kath -> Inzil
Lhuna -> Lommy
Macalaure -> Lommy 2
QT -> Brinniel
Greenie -> Macalaure 2
Legate -> Huinesoron
Huinesoron -> Macalaure 3
Rune -> Loslote
Kitanna -> Huinesoron 2
THE Ka -> Loslote 2
Pitchwife -> Huinesoron 3
Loslote -> Huinesoron 4
Sally -> Macalaure 4
Dun -> Mac 5

[Lalaith]

Sorry my mother just rang!
Ok I don't like this.
But because I trust Kit.
++Huinesoron

[Thinlómien]

These close deadlines are wild. I am franticly refreshing the site.Ditto, also 6 vots to go means anyone could still get lynched! :eek:

~*~

Ok 5:

Lommy -> Macalaure
Kath -> Inzil
Lhuna -> Lommy
Macalaure -> Lommy 2
QT -> Brinniel
Greenie -> Macalaure 2
Legate -> Huinesoron
Huinesoron -> Macalaure 3
Rune -> Loslote
Kitanna -> Huinesoron 2
THE Ka -> Loslote 2
Pitchwife -> Huinesoron 3
Loslote -> Huinesoron 4
Sally -> Macalaure 4
Inzil -> Macalaure 5
Lalaith -> Huinesoron 5 (Mac in lead)

4 votes


edit: xed with Lalaith and added her vote

[Brinniel]

Let's see what happens..

++Huinesoron

X-ed since #553

[Boromir88]

Well now it hardly matters, anyway - the choice is Hui or Mac. So now I'm gonna stare at who's voting who for a moment.

That's what I was trying to figure out. Knowing Brinn wouldn't vote for herself.

++Mac

Edit: crossed with Brinn's vote and crossed with all those other votes that ended in a tie at the moment. Wow

[satansaloser2005]

This is intense!

[Inziladun]

Sorry my mother just rang!
Ok I don't like this.
But because I trust Kit.
++Huinesoron

I almost did that, for the same reason.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Look at that tie.

[Eönwë]

Ok, with the vote count looking as it is, it looks like it's going to have to be:

++Huinesoron

[satansaloser2005]

Look at that tie.

That's a mighty niccccccce tie there. It would be a shame if something happened to it.


Sorry, I'm just being obnoxious at this point. :/


x'd with Steve

[Thinlómien]

Lommy -> Macalaure
Kath -> Inzil
Lhuna -> Lommy
Macalaure -> Lommy 2
QT -> Brinniel
Greenie -> Macalaure 2
Legate -> Huinesoron
Huinesoron -> Macalaure 3
Rune -> Loslote
Kitanna -> Huinesoron 2
THE Ka -> Loslote 2
Pitchwife -> Huinesoron 3
Loslote -> Huinesoron 4
Sally -> Macalaure 4
Inzil -> Macalaure 5
Lalaith -> Huinesoron 5
Brinn -> Huinesoron 6
Boro -> Mac 6
Eönwë -> Huinesoron 7

Holy :eek::eek:

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Mac's voters are almost all universally null to me.

Hui's voters have an almost equal mix of people I trust and people I don't.

Neat.

[satansaloser2005]

WHAT IS HAPPENING?!?!

Three left, maybe? Two? Not sure.

[Inziladun]

Watch Huey be a wolf. :rolleyes:

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

That's a mighty niccccccce tie there. It would be a shame if something happened to it.


Sorry, I'm just being obnoxious at this point. :/


x'd with Steve

Rofl about this. But yeah, horribly intense situation here.

[Thinlómien]

So, Huinesoron it is, even if Shasta makes it a tie? I think he's the only one left.

I'm somewhat having a bad feeling about this and will totally look at the Huine voters toMorrow.


edit: xed with everyone

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Watch Huey be a wolf. :rolleyes:

Here's hoping...

[Shastanis Althreduin]

So, Huinesoron it is, even if Shasta makes it a tie? I think he's the only one left.

I'm somewhat having a bad feeling about this and will totally look at the Huine voters toMorrow.


edit: xed with everyone

That's no fun. Someone ought to vote Mac and give me all the power.

[satansaloser2005]

Watch Huey be a wolf. :rolleyes:

I hope so, even though it would make me look awful.


x'd with Shasta being wonderful, as always

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

I hope so, even though it would make me look awful.


How selfless.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Why don't I have a read on Sally yet? I find that strange.

[Thinlómien]

That's no fun. Someone ought to vote Mac and give me all the power. Your own fault for leaving your vote so late. :p

[satansaloser2005]

Why don't I have a read on Sally yet? I find that strange.

Ditto, babe.

[Inziladun]

I hope so, even though it would make me look awful.

Both of us, but yes.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

That's no fun. Someone ought to vote Mac and give me all the power.

Unless Urwen rematerialises out of nowhere, doubt it.

Anyways... I think there will be hell to analyse toMorrow, regardless how this all ends.

[satansaloser2005]

Unless Urwen rematerialises out of nowhere, doubt it.

Anyways... I think there will be hell to analyse toMorrow, regardless how this all ends.

Urwen is out of the game, so she won't be voting.

[Inziladun]

Urwen's done.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

++Mac

For the aesthetic.

[Boromir88]

Unless Urwen rematerialises out of nowhere, doubt it.

Anyways... I think there will be hell to analyse toMorrow, regardless how this all ends.

Hahaha. I wish there was a big LOL face for this.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

I know, that Urwen remark was rhetorical.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Your own fault for leaving your vote so late. :p

Drama's in my blood.

[satansaloser2005]

Where is Nog to end our suffering? ;)

[Nogrod]

DEADLINE: PLEASE CEASE ALL POSTING!



Huinesoron is moved into quarantine.

A narration will follow as soon as possible, hopefully in 15 minutes - half an hour.

[THE Ka]

You mean you suspect people because they don't sound like Data?:eek:
This is quite fascinating, Captain.

Data is enough of a personally beloved character to know that he was distinctly without contractions. One of his points on the 'more human' scale was to purposefully try to use them... I have all TNG seasons if you want to borrow them, lol. :p


ex'ed with NogMod: My apologies!

[Nogrod]

With the horrifying revelation of there being some Morgoth infected souls deliberately spreading the illness, the nature of discussion changed even more from possible physical symptoms to mental ones. Most everyone was scrutinized by others in depth on what they had said and done the previous Day – and to a lesser degree to even what they had said this Day.

~*~

The discussion was brought to a halt in the afternoon when Brandir came around asking for his grandmother. As soon as people realized that no-one had seen her after midday, people started getting worried. Morwen asked the Nurse and Aerin to take care of the children and joined others in the search.

She was nowhere to be found.

Finally Algund yelled from the main gates. There was Glóredhel, leaning to a tall oak just outside the Village. She seemed cool and collected, staring somewhere far out of sight. Coming closer Halmir suddenly realized she was not breathing at all. His legs gave up under him and he fell to the muddy ground.

“Why! Why the House of Haleth! Why didn’t you take me instead! Be damned Morgoth, and your evil deeds!” He cried, pulling his hair.

“She’s withered away from grief…” said Indor quietly: “the way of spirits more delicate than ours”.

They carried her body to the old Badger’s cabin just around the corner and tucked her in some blankets. They’d have a decent funeral for her when all this was over.

~*~

“How about if I don’t want to go? Those are probably ill people in there. I don’t want to get infected!” Hareth stared at the crowd wildly. “I’m your mother, for Valar’s sake!” she yelled at her sons standing in front of her. “How dare you!”

“You just go” Grithnir said calmly notching an arrow.

“Yes, just no sudden movements” echoed Gethron drawing his bow as well.

“Do as you’re told mother. If you’re innocent, the Valar will protect you”, Húrin said calmly.

“But I am not!” Hareth screamed, eyes glowing red, and jumped on his sons.

There was a sharp snap and a soft thud, and another.

Hareth fell down with two arrows deep in her thigs.

Asgon noticed the brothers were stunned and took the reins. “Sador and Ragnir, take her in, and Aerin, get some towels and herbs for her as she comes back to her senses”.

“If she comes back…” Morwen murmured to herself, shaking her head.


~*~


Dead, yes dead

Nogrod – “The Badger”, the Mod (dead on Night1)
Urwen – Glóredhel, healthy person (withered away in grief during D2)

Quarantined

Galadriel55 – Andróg, the Cobbler (voted into QT on Day1)
Rikae – Haldir, formerly healthy person (infected by the shady Infectors on Night2)
Huinesoron - Hareth, Infector (voted into QT on Day2)

Hanging around

Thinlómien
Legate of Amon Lanc
Loslote
Pitchwife
Kath
Lhunardawen
Inziladun
Kitanna
A Little Green
Boromir88
Lalaith
Brinniel
Eönwë
Macalaure
Rune Son of Bjarne
THE Ka
Satansaloser2005
Shastanis Althreduin



It’s now Night 3.

Sleep or not, next posting in about 24 hours.

[Nogrod]

That Night the Village slept uneasily. It was not just the threat that kept them awake, but also the excitement of the debate – and naturally the dramatic end of the Day. If Hareth could have fallen under Morgoth’s evil spells, then it could befall on just about anyone. There were horrific thoughts in peoples’ minds that Night: could even Húrin or Huor be, or the children? Lalaith? Morwen was having terrifying nightmares.

Húrin couldn’t sleep beside his wife who kept rolling around in her sheets, and stalked silently outside the Village to be alone for a moment. He watched the starry sky which looked exactly the same it always looked, like anything that was going on down in the Village didn’t mean anything, didn’t change anything. Yet, he was wishing Valar would help him, and it was under the light of the stars he could feel a tiny bit of solace.

Suddenly there was a crack somewhere in the woods somewhere near him. Húrin awoke from his dreams and was immediately up and awake. He listened. A deer? He thought he saw something disappearing between the trees maybe thirty yards from him.

More noises broke out abruptly from the opposite direction, several of them now. Then there was a yell of pain he recognized too well.

“Bro!” Húrin jumped towards the cry drawing his sword as he ran. “Huor! Where are you?”

“Take them down! Run!” he heard his brother yelling somewhere to his left as he was running down the slope. Several shapes slipped away into the darkness in different directions. It was impossible to reach them all. Drawing breath Húrin realized he’d get none of them – and Huor was there just beside him, in pain.

Húrin sheathed his sword and ran to his brother.

“What did they do to you?” Húrin touched Huor’s forehead and fell the heat. Bending down he reached for his eyes. “Who were they? Did you recognize anyone?” Huor shook his head and then suddenly pushed his brother away violently, using an amazing amount of strength for a man in his condition.

“Stay away from me!” he cried, breathing heavily. “They got our mother and now they got me. You must live! Listen to me. You shall live for greater things, and for the house of Hador!” The effort was clearly too much for him and he fell back to the ground sweating excessively, slowly passing out.

Húrin walked slowly back to the village carrying his half unconscious brother on his back to the Great Hall. With a little help from Asgon, he set his brother into a bench with some blankets and cushions.

“What on Arda were you doing out there brother?” Húrin asked Huor when their eyes met.

“I thought I was protecting you…” he said with a failing voice, but then managed a faint smile. “It seems it was the other way around this Night. What a failure.” Huor closed his eyes.

“I’ll promise this will be set right! And you’ll get better. Trust me.” Huor slept and didn’t answer anymore. Húrin left the Hall not quite sure whether even he believed in his own words.


~*~


Dead, yes dead

Nogrod – “The Badger”, the Mod (dead on Night1)
Urwen – Glóredhel, healthy person (withered away in grief during Day2)

Quarantined

Galadriel55 – Andróg, the Cobbler (voted into QT on Day1)
Rikae – Haldir, formerly healthy person (infected by the shady Infectors on Night2)
Huinesoron – Hareth, an Infector (voted into QT on Day2)
Kitanna – Huor, the Ranger (infected in the woods by the Infectors on Night3)

Hanging around

Thinlómien
Legate of Amon Lanc
Loslote
Pitchwife
Kath
Lhunardawen
Inziladun
A Little Green
Boromir88
Lalaith
Brinniel
Eönwë
Macalaure
Rune Son of Bjarne
THE Ka
Satansaloser2005
Shastanis Althreduin


It’s now Day 3

You are welcome to take on the Thread again.

[Inziladun]

Well, no more doubt around KitRanger.

YesterDay's Hueywagon turned out well, but it seemed to me to come out of nowhere. It's the same issue I had with the sudden push on Brinn the previous Day.
Adding to my trepidation was the fact that Lottie and Pitch, who I was very wary of, were on it.

I tried to consolidate yesterDay's comments, and later, votes on Huey :

Huinesoron's first post makes me wonder, because on the one hand, the way he's describing his Nightly activity as scribbling this post - which he clearly did - makes it more likely to be an innocent's endeavour; but on the other hand, I am just returning to my misgivings yesterDay and wondering whether he's exactly not being "helpful" here (perhaps WW with enought time on his hands, can imagine) plus subtly steering the discussion back to the "threesome" - and perhaps to Pitch, his yesterDay's suspect. If Pitch was innocent, it would be a safe way for a Wolf to keep on track with consistent suspicion onto a Day that starts the same way as the previous one: with the Village having nearly zero info.

Hui: Starts to suspect Lommy based on her comments about Day 1, stating that it gave "finding a wolf toDay is impossible, so why bother trying" vibes. There's some further exchanges that continue that suspicion. In post #93, he's wary of Mac suspicions, and backs off Lommy slightly. By post #183 Lommy is back on the suspect list. He points out the suspicion against me has come out of nowhere and then votes G55 to avoid me getting lynched (thanks) and thinks a wolf is behind the bandwagon.

Impression: I don't agree with his Lommy suspicions, but I do like his concern about the bandwagon against me - however, that does not spell innocence. I could see a wolf trying to support an innocent to gain her trust. Hui does a lot of summaries of previous posts which appears helpful, but could also be a facade should he be a wolf.

Also speaking of Huin there's this –

Why would a Pitchwolf want to move the focus onto Legate specifically, if not to move it away from a packmate or a suspected cobbler? What would be the motive? Huin also downplays the arguments against Brinn here:

He also explicitly voted to save Brinn yesterDay. Something going on here, though I’m starting to think it’s too open to be a wolf defending a packmate.

Hui -> G55 6

Hui clearly stated he wanted to avoid Brinn getting lynched and so chose G55 because she had the higher vote tally. It's a bold statement to make at a point where no roles were known. What made him think Brinn was definitely worth saving?

Since I haven't finished looking in-depth at everyone, no. These are the two I've formed a strong opinion on. Sorry you don't approve of my method for a reread.

Huinesoron, that first post of yours toDay -- I can't. I just can't right now. I'll try going back to it later, but right now just looking at it... *brain explodes*

YELLOW

Huinesoron - everytime I read a post of theirs, I'm like 80% "how does your brain work that way???" but that doesn't mean they have guilty brain, just that they have different brain from me. I'm aware I kind give them the benefit of doubt based on this endlessly, but for the time being I'm not too worried about any particular thing.

Huinesoron
Questioned G55 for "hypothetically contemplating possible Wolf victories" (wolf-Hunter-ordo endgame).

But unless I missed something, I'm pretty sure that post above was his first considerable suspicion of her.

Mmmkay. Then false-voted Lommy. When G55 and Brinn tied at 2 apiece, said he still stands by his false-vote but would vote Pitch > G55 to derail the Brinnwagon. In the end voted G55 when the votes were at 4 Brinn, 3 Pitch, 5 G55.

If he voted Pitch as he preferred, he would have nearly contributed to a three-way tie, although I'm not sure if anyone else (other than Lottie, who at that point had already voted) would also vote for Pitch. Huin-Brinn wolf pair? Can it be that blatant?

Okay, and I am getting bad vibe from Lottie's post above.

It essentially says "I am suspicious of the people who did something toDay that has provoked controversy" - that could easily also mean "I am a Wolf waiting for people to pick which of the bandwagons that are offering themselves toDay would be the best to ride on". These are literally all the things that were controversial toDay, stated by someone else, so I could imagine Lothwolf writing it here to "butter up" people who first stated it. I am wary.

Similar kind of behaviour I have been noticing toDay still also in Huinesoron, to a degree - even though in his case, it is rather along the lines of "I comment on XY, but then again just so that you don't think, I do not really mean it, but thought you should know".

Is all this based on simply the fact that people went after Brinn? Given we don't know her role can such firm suspicions really be drawn at this point. If she'd been lynched and had turned out to be innocent I think this would all deserve a bit more credence.

Huinesoron - Nothing pinging any alarm bells so far. Lots of well-thought-out posts.

Bears looking at more closely:
Boro
Kath
Huin
Zil
Kit
Eönwë

Feel okay aboutHuinesoron - I like the way he's thinking about the game, which makes me feel generally okay about him. I do see some of the points people have made about his summaries not always being completely accurate, though, and that's something to keep an eye on - in particular, do his summaries end up resulting in a cohesive misleading campaign?

Huin - seems very helpful and productive, but sometimes feels odd

Wasn't really thinking of it regarding Night kill, but I do think a wolf could possibly be hidden there. Their hands would look a little cleaner compared to others if I were lynched, thus proven innocent. It the reason I am slightly worried about Hui.

Gotta agree with Mac for a sec, this post of Huin's was kinda strange. Also they seem to "know" Mac is going to get lynched toDay, which is very :confused: I mean sure, Mac has been one of the main suspects toDay but it could still go numerous ways with more than 2h to go and merely a handful of votes cast.

TOWARDS-THE-RED-END-OF-THE-SPECTRUM-ZONE:

Huinesoron - I said above, is the sort of "I am being very sensible with - possibly - occasionally leaving accusations around in the metaphorical form of unfinished sentence". The consistency of their yesterDay's suspicion would be a plus, on the other hand the vote yesterDay was one of those "I will wait what happens and act accordingly" - which however is something many people would do, regardless of role.

And Mac's reactions to Huin are feeling more innocent now, and Huin's last couple of posts are feeling a little more like a salesman..... I'm less enthusiastic about a Mac vote after seeing how he's defending himself, which doesn't feel desperate, more annoyed. I think I'm leaning towards Zil instead, I'm too torn on Mac.

Huey, Lottie, and Inzil all remarked caution against a Brinn-wagon. Which I also found suspicious. It's almost like a wolf/wolves trying to appear reasonable in "hey let's not bandwagon."

This again made my radar *ping* at HS. This again sounds like casting blame "from the flank", or "as he passes by". By now, however, HS has been doing it so consistently that I am really beginning to wonder.

Still. Right now, considering voting either HS, Lottie or Brinn. The former two seem to affect me the way that I keep telling myself "you are exaggerating", but then I see their next post and it's the same thing all over again. If I don't vote now and wait, I may end up again with the choice of some bandwagons about someone completely different and I would prefer not to do that. If it happened however and it was about some of those others that got votes so far, I would not be opposed to voting Lommy, possibly, but the whole thing seems horribly sinister and I have zero, zero, zero idea how to react to Mac. Zero.

I'm at the moment strongly considering voting Brinn. Otherwise I thought to start a Huinesoron vote or somesuch, but I am not sure if anyone at all would go for it.

Maybe too late and near DL to look through Huey for consideration today, but he's worth a thorough look.

I wouldn't be opposed to voting for Huinesoron. I mentioned earlier that [b]Mac[b] was looking more innocent to me, and I started getting a kind of sketchy vibe from Huin. Even when I put him in my "feeling okay" category in my list, I mentioned that I wanted to keep an eye on his habit of slightly misrepresenting things in his summaries, as well. I'm going to take a closer look at him, but I would consider him a candidate for voting toDay.

People talking about voting Huinesoron? Well that would be a Plot Twist but not necessarily a bad one. If he's a wolf, I wager Brinn is one too. He pretty much admitted to trying to save her on Day1, which just sounded off to me. But I have really hard time reading Huin because as I've said, I just don't follow his thought processes because it seems we disagree on every turn.

Huey seems capable of long, analytical posts and somehow steers clear of controversy in the meantime. I am not at all at ease with him, but I don't think I'd vote him just yet.

Since now there seems to be more support for it too, I may vote Hui. But otherwise I'm also very much favouring Brinnlynch to others.

No read
Hui
Kath
Boromir
Lalaith
Sally
Mac
Greenie

I could vote Hui, but I would prefer Inzil. Feeling less sure about Mac - his latest posts feel okay, but I keep going back and forth on this.

Hey whatever. I may just as well do something on time for once, and offer some options.

++Huinesoron

Rereading Huin’s post while I’m looking over posts raises my blood pressure.


I might not be able to stay until the deadline, so probably my final thoughts:

Very bad
Huin, Greenie

I could still vote Zil, or I could actually get behind Legate's Hui vote. A few of Hui's posts look like subtly sewing suspicion while not getting too involved in anything.

Of those who currently have votes. I do not want to vote Lommy, Inzil or Huey.

Here's some rushed thoughts onHuinesoron
YesterDay, he came down hard on Lommy, initially for what looked to me like a normal "woe onto Day 1 and chaos" post. But he kept on it.
At the same time he threw light suspicion at LGP and also really pushed for "why is Mac so suspicious? And he kept pushing it, though Mac didn't ever appear to be a contender to be lynched. Then when Brinn fell under scrutiny he did the same sort of thing. Ultimately voting G55

Is how he starts the Day. Which, why not have a cobbler in that group? I think it makes sense for a cobbler to propose such an idea, then back away. In the same way I could believe it of a wolf.
And is back on his Lommy lynch train. Still not seeing why, then again, I haven't dug in on Lommy too much. Still it seems weird how he always keeps her there, ready to lynch, but then goes a different direction.

I feel he wants to get credit for saying "let's back off, Kit, shall we?" When it wasn't really necessary to establish a timeline for that. I revealed myself when enough people brought up my fake reveal reaction and I said I was done engaging on the subject. From a village standpoint, yeah, let it go, because innocents commenting on it are just digging themselves into a hole for wolves to hide in. But it alarms me Huin went out of his way to establish who said it first.
After a Day of demanding why people saw Mac as suspicious, and in my frantic refreshing to stay onto of new posts I see he's voted Mac.


Yes! This! A million times! If I could use profanities here, I would.

So final thoughts on the Day.
Huin I feel if Huin is a wolf, then look deeper into Lommy. He has been harping on her since the start, but doesn't act on it. He spoke a lot, but I don't feel he always said anything, which is funny because he leveled that same statement at others yesterDay. He demands reasons for Mac and Brinn being so suspicious, but I don't feel like he really looked at people's reasons of why in the first place. He just saw these names that were gaining just enough traction and pounced. Like if they were lynched and turned out innocent he would look good. But then today he votes Mac. Erm...ok? Which at the beginning of the day, after reviewing Day 1, I'd have voted Mac too, but now? I feel like there's more to go on elsewhere.
And then the "leave Kit alone" timeline Huin tries to establish worries me.

++Huinesoron

We are really coming down to the wire here. I'm leaning towards voting Huinesoron.

You know what, let's.

++Huinesoron

This Huinewagon is staring to look interesting, just saying, regardless of his role...

Yeah, okay.

++Huinesoron

Gah, I really wanted to vote Inzil toDay but I think I would rather see Hui lynched over Mac.

I'm still open to a Brinn vote and am open to a Huey vote, but the former is seeming less and less likely.

Sorry my mother just rang!
Ok I don't like this.
But because I trust Kit.
++Huinesoron

Let's see what happens..

++Huinesoron

I almost did that, for the same reason.

Ok, with the vote count looking as it is, it looks like it's going to have to be:

++Huinesoron

Hui's voters have an almost equal mix of people I trust and people I don't.

Watch Huey be a wolf. :rolleyes:

I'm somewhat having a bad feeling about this and will totally look at the Huine voters toMorrow.

Here's hoping...

I hope so, even though it would make me look awful.

Wolf-on-wolf is certainly not out of the question. In fact, it's likely. With five of them, they could afford to sacrifice one if it made another one or two look rosier, especially since Urwen's departure gave them what amounts to a free kill.

[Pitchwife]

Wolf-on-wolf is certainly not out of the question. In fact, it's likely. With five of them, they could afford to sacrifice one if it made another one or two look rosier, especially since Urwen's departure gave them what amounts to a free kill.
Right. And may I say that Eönwë voting Hui because 'with the vote count as it is it's going to have to be this way', after he'd earlier listed Hui as 'fine for now', is as good a candidate for this as any.

[Thinlómien]

A very expected Night kill outcome, a very unexpected lynch outcome! :eek:

I have to confess I was 95% sure Huin would turn out innocent because "Last minute bandwagons are never against wolves" :rolleyes: but I'm very happy to have been wrong!

I don't really see basically any reason for a wolf to vote Huin (except possibly something like the second vote if it looked like it wouldn't gain momentum? I need to have a better look how did it actually go) - I mean it would have been an absolutely unnecessary sacrifice from their pov. Even if Mac is a wolf too, he was surely the more expendable one out of the two with the amount of suspicion he'd garnered, while Huin had largely slipped unnoticed until the last minute bandwagon.

Therefore I would look toDay very hard at everyone who voted Mac after Huin got the first vote. Those were the people who protected Huin and there's almost certain to be AT LEAST one wolf in there, possibly more.


edit: xed with both

[Brinniel]

I was really hoping that Kit was an ordo acting like the ranger, but alas. :(

The Hui bandwagon really did come from nowhere - I'm just glad I trusted my gut. I don't think the wolves saw that bandwagon coming, however, I do think there's a fair chance that a wolf is hiding among the Hui voters, so I will not disregard them.

Another Day in which the baddies have deciding power in the QT vote. That thread has got to be getting interesting.

Will look over some things shortly..

[satansaloser2005]

Well, rats. :(

Just so we're clear here, I'm not easing off Mac just because Huey was a wolf. It would be easy for the wolves to sacrifice either one of them to clear the other.

Now bring on the accusations, because they might be fair. Wrong, but fair.


x'd with Dun, who was very prepared this Morning, and the rest

[Thinlómien]

I think there's a fair chance there's a wolf hiding among the three first people to try to discredit the epic hueywagon ie Inzil, Pitch and Brinn. :p

Zil's summary was very nice, but I think I'm still gonna look at the votes myself now to get a better feel of the timing of all etv.

Also I noticed there a brain fart in the quote by me:

I'm aware I kind give them the benefit of doubt based on this endlessly, but for the time being I'm not too worried about any particular thing.This is supposed to say "I'm aware I can't give them the benefit of doubt based on this endlessly, but for the time being I'm not too worried about any particular thing."

PS. Sadly I don't think we can conclude basically anything of the Kitanna kill, any pack would've done that. I'm really not sure what to make of Brinn's statement that she thought Kit might be an ordo... like seriously????

[Boromir88]

That is what I call an unexpected surprise. Of course it also makes me wonder what if Mac's a wolf too?

RIP Kit, sorry you had to come out. I was hoping people would just ignore your end of Day 1 comment to G55's fake reveal. Reinforces my general point that we can all be a little better at discretion, and not all discretion is evil!


Wolf-on-wolf is certainly not out of the question. In fact, it's likely. With five of them, they could afford to sacrifice one if it made another one or two look rosier, especially since Urwen's departure gave them what amounts to a free kill.

Not out of the question, true. It would be convenient for a wolf to hide behind the "I trust Kit" reason. Revealed ranger, highly likely to be night killed, I can see being a good spot for a wolf to ally themselves and look good.

However, I'm going to put this disclaimer now and say I will not be considering the possibility of wolf-on-wolf votes yesterday. I just think there's more suspicious votes to be focusing on that has wolves, than the votes of those who lynched a wolf.

I did a thorough look of Huey's posts from Day 1 and 2. I must say he was someone I wasn't considering a suspect. In hindsight his end of Day 1 and end of Day 2 posts, I can definitely see why he was found suspicious. I'm going to get myself some dinner and be back with a Huey analysis.

Edit: crossed with everyone since Zil

[Loslote]

Well, no more doubt around KitRanger.

YesterDay's Hueywagon turned out well, but it seemed to me to come out of nowhere. It's the same issue I had with the sudden push on Brinn the previous Day.
Adding to my trepidation was the fact that Lottie and Pitch, who I was very wary of, were on it.

I tried to consolidate yesterDay's comments, and later, votes on Huey :

Wolf-on-wolf is certainly not out of the question. In fact, it's likely. With five of them, they could afford to sacrifice one if it made another one or two look rosier, especially since Urwen's departure gave them what amounts to a free kill.

What an opening post. :eek: I am a little surprised that with all those quoted posts, your only actual comments are that Pitch and I are still suspicious...despite voting for a wolf at a pivotal moment...with no mention of the people whose votes might have worked to save Huin, which in my opinion, is a far more suspicious group of people. And which happens to include you. :rolleyes:

I broke yesterDay's voters into six groups, as follows, and I personally think those groups say a lot. Could there have been wolf on wolf? Absolutely, but I think you can still say that the people who really swung the vote Huin's way look pretty good.

Voted Huin early
Legate
Kitanna
Pitchwife
Lottie

I would say this group looks pretty decent. Why start up a whole bandwagon and encourage it if you don't have to?

Voted Huin late
Lalaith
Brinn
Eonwe

I would say this group looks very good. The voting was super tight. Any one of these people could have changed the outcome by voting elsewhere.

Voted Mac early
Lommy
Greenie
Huin

I would say this group is fine. It wasn't clear at that point that the vote was between Mac and Huin - I believe Zil was the other name being thrown around - so I don't think these votes were suspicious.

Voted Mac late
Sally
Zil
Boro
(Shasta)

I think this group looks very suspicious. I personally doubt Mac and Huin were packmates; therefore, these votes to me could easily be wolves trying to save a packmate. My guess is that there is one or two wolves between Sally, Zil, and Boro. I don't count Shasta because the vote was already decided when he voted.

Voted elsewhere early
Kath
Lhuna
Mac

Nothing much to say about these votes in my opinion.

Voted elsewhere late
Rune
THE Ka

Specifically, voted for me. I really disliked these votes, but of course I know that they were votes for an innocent, so I might be biased. However, they came at a point where the bandwagons were starting to look pretty set, and I could see a wolf latching onto this as a way to avoid voting for a packmate or committing to trying to save a packmate. Basically throw away votes - most of the people who wanted to vote for me had already voted at this point, there was little chance I would be lynched. I would guess one of these two are wolves.

Okay, so who do I think the wolves are? I think two of Sally/Boro/Zil, one of Rune/Ka, and I would guess Lommy is the fourth, due to the way she and Huin sort of soft suspected each other and the way Lommy ties Huin to Brinn in her #494. Given that a wolf would KNOW Huin was a wolf, and that Lommy does not try to save him but rather soft encourages the bandwagon, I find the decision to tie Huin to someone who later casts one of the late votes against Huin suspicious.

[Thinlómien]

Now bring on the accusations, because they might be fair. Wrong, but fair.Uh, you have something to confess? Are you the next fatalistic wolf à la Mac?


edit: xed with Lottie and Boro

[Loslote]

Just so we're clear here, I'm not easing off Mac just because Huey was a wolf. It would be easy for the wolves to sacrifice either one of them to clear the other.

Of course it's possible that both Mac and Huin were wolves, but I would find it surprising if the wolves were completely unable to produce a single other viable bandwagon to counter two bandwagons on wolves. The Zil bandwagon, for example, could have been encouraged and pushed harder without too much suspicion on the people pushing it. The bandwagon on me probably could've been pushed harder - there were more people interested in voting me, though Legate and Lommy at least voted early. If both Mac and Huin were wolves, I would've expected to see more pressure in those directions, which we just didn't really see.

[Boromir88]

Oh and well, Evil side has control of the QT vote today as well. It will be interesting to see what vote they give us. Since the vote comes 2 hours before our own DL, with how our DL's go. I'm wondering if we try the "proposed vote" again today...like someone said, "fake vote" just sounds inaccurate. Then see what the evil QT vote gives us.

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

I broke yesterDay's voters into six groups, as follows, and I personally think those groups say a lot. Could there have been wolf on wolf? Absolutely, but I think you can still say that the people who really swung the vote Huin's way look pretty good.


How do you define "early" and "late" in your vote grouping?

[Loslote]

How do you define "early" and "late" in your vote grouping?

Before and after it became clear that the main options to vote were Mac and Huin.

[Pitchwife]

To be spiecific:
Seems fine for now (won't vote unless something changes)
[..., omission mine]
Huinesoron - Nothing pinging any alarm bells so far. Lots of well-thought-out posts.


Then all of a sudden, in #552, he's 'open to a Huey vote', with no explanation. So, what has changed?


Also, I've read through Hui's posts since yesterDay (assign him to Mordor for those walls of text!), and there were a few interesting points where he refers to Eönwë:
And if Eonwe is a wolf who masterminded the wagon and then didn't even need to climb on it (switching to a vote-the-absentee strategy on Urwen), then he pulled it off with masterful skill.
This, IMO, has a whiff of a cub licking a senior wolf's muzzle.
Quiet!Eonwe still worries me a bit, but I'll call this one a wash. I'm going to note his Boro-Pitch theory here to look back on; I don't think I'm following it correctly right now, so I want to read it again later.
Non-committal worries + noting the 'Boro-Pitch-theory' (i.e. Boro and I as packmates 'at arm's length'; I'd call that a hypothesis at best!) as something to maybe pick up later if he needs another suspicion.

[Macalaure]

Before I go into anything else... I find it absolutely amazing that after two years, and many more years for some of us, werewolf went straight back to its heyday. That deadline yesterDay was about as exciting as it gets, and not just because I was in it!


You have no idea how good it felt to see Hui revealed as a wolf. No. Idea. :smokin:

I didn't think Kitanna actually was the ranger. Dang.

About that whole framing business... I'm kind of proven wrong there as absolutely nobody went along with it. The most I got was "I can see where he's coming from, but it's still stupid" from one or two people. I'd like to tell myself that I called the wolves out so they changed their plan on the fly, but I fear I'd be deluding myself there. And even if, I daresay I gave them plenty ammunition to go after me in other ways.

I'm still very much convinces that Greenie is a wolf, but I'm gonna analyze Hui and the madness of the voting first

And holy quote-spam, Inzil. :eek:

[satansaloser2005]

Oh and well, Evil side has control of the QT vote today as well. It will be interesting to see what vote they give us. Since the vote comes 2 hours before our own DL, with how our DL's go. I'm wondering if we try the "proposed vote" again today...like someone said, "fake vote" just sounds inaccurate. Then see what the evil QT vote gives us.

Crap. I hadn't thought about that, actually. What level of bluff will they try, I wonder?


x'd with Mac

[Pitchwife]

And yes, Eönwë did give Hui the deciding vote to put him ahead of Mac, but I think it could have been a case of 'push what's falling' and reckoning he'd look better for it.

[Brinniel]

So some highlights on Hui...

Day 1, he writes up most of his opinions in #183 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showthread.php?p=723362#post723362) (not quoting it because it's long). An essential summary of that Day is that he suspects Lommy and Pitch and to a lesser degree G55. He votes G55 to prevent me from getting lynched.

Day 2 highlights:
Okay. Pitch and Lommy were my main suspicions yesterday; they don't look as bad (so far) today, but neither am I totally comfortable with them. Zil looks dodgy, Lottie looks dodgy but only when paired with Zil. Boro is giving me bad vibes but nothing I can articulate, and I don't like Mac's 'what if everyone thinks I'm a wolf' theory much at all.

On the innocent side: Greenie has does good work on (actual reasons) why Brinn might be suspicious, and Legate is still striking me as innocent. Brinn herself… I agree that the evidence is piling up, but I still think the Brinn-wagon was suspicious as all get-out, so can't see how she could be a wolf.

Have looked over Mac's #405, and I don't like it. He seems to be focussing heavily on the people who suspect him, and explaining why that must make them wolves. Okay, I've read enough Werewolf to know that innocents do this, but a) so do wolves, and with a good deal more urgency, and b) didn't Mac spend a big post early toDay explaining how he thinks G55 thought he was a wolf? He even brings it up again here.

And yes, there are more details, but with the amount of words that have been thrown around you can build some kind of case against everyone. The fact remains that his case against Greenie relies heavily on 'this is exactly how I’d expect a Green wolf to act'.

At the moment, my vote would probably go to Mac or Pitch. Pitch has been looking better toDay, but as I said (earlier toDay, I think?), I tend to read him as reasonable when he's responding to me anyway. So I need to go back and read him over again.

Lommy has... has she been posting? Right, a bit at the end of page 9, and onto 10. That explains why she hasn't struck me as suspicious for a while - she's not been here? I'll look over her as well, but my memory is that I've felt slightly better about her toDay.

The Zil/Lottie connection seems to have evaporated, so I'm tentatively calling Lottie innocent (and see no reason to change my earlier placing of Greenie and Legate in that category). Zil has... wow, has really been pushing this Kit-discussion, hasn't he? Leaning against trusting him still.

Crossposts from people named above: Lommy is back and, oh stars, literally saying 'flip-flopping'. But I think I'm getting a feel for her style, and this doesn't feel wolfish. I'll still reread to check what I was worried about before (too many villagers, I can't remember who did what!)

Zil has posted with... a short, zero-content post. 'Short' seems to be his style, but #412 does take it to extremes. Overtones of 'let me drop back into the shadows'. So I stand by my 'wolfish' read.


Okay, reading over my main suspects (Mac, Pitch, Lommy, Zil, in that order for now):

Mac: Thought innocent yesterDay, but realised today that was down to not trusting the way people were suspecting him, when those people were a (now) known and a probable innocent. ToDay, launched straight into 'what if everyone thinks I'm a wolf', and starts in on Kitanna, which is an interesting line in view of, y'know... Kitanna. And he keeps trying to implicate the people who suspect him. I really don't like this.

Pitchwife: My chief suspect yesterDay, for his actions in the GLP & several 'just asking questions' posts; also his position on the Brinn-wagon (both suspicion and voting). Launches toDay with "this may implicate Brinn, except isn't that almost too obvious?" - I'm starting to view this less as 'just asking questions', and more as 'they will say both no and yes'. He suspects Zil with no explanation (at the time), and later pushes both the start and the stop of the Kit discussion, including one 'saw it as I was writing' crosspost that makes me feel like his post was intended to take credit for starting the 'let's shut it down' discussion.

Lommy: My second suspect yesterDay, mostly for reasons of tone I think. ToDay, she seems a lot better. #350 is a good example of this - she's not sitting there saying 'yes, but maybe no', she's analysing the evidence for both (all) sides of the discussion. And she's cast the first vote, too.

Zil: Completely off my radar yesterDay; it's those short posts of his. Today, spent a fair few posts talking about things we know aren't true, such as Rikae-wolf; even more posts on the Kit discussion; really, I'm seeing a lot of posts where Zil's contribution is shorter than what he's replying to! It may be just his style, so he's not top of my list, but he does look (at least at times) like a wolf trying to look active without having to say much.

I'm starting to worry I might just trust people who write long posts on multiple topics. :-/

Okay, at the moment I'm likely to vote Mac, but will take Pitch as still looking about as suspicious as yesterday (Mac's just more suspicious). Lommy I'm going to call neutral for now. Zil I think there's a better-than-even chance is a wolf.

At the moment, two of my top three have 1 vote each. It's going to be interesting to see who gets offered up to take the heat off them...


Okay, I've snatched a few minutes. To the people suspicious of me - it seems like most of this comes out of my misreading/over-simplifying things? I've taken the concrit on board, and will make sure to read more carefully toMorrow. (I have a bad habit of semi-skimming over bits of posts, and then forgetting that there was anything between the first and last points to catch my eye.) I welcome the scrutiny - all you'll find is that I've tried my best to follow the evidence.

ToMorrow is the weekend; not sure how that'll affect my posting, but I'll definitely try to answer any questions about my thinking.

(And to whoever said I sound like a salesman - probably! I've spent the past five or six years routinely sending emails with 'thank you, and best regards' at the end, it's a hard habit to break!)

Checking for cross-posts... okay, I got a vote, and I'm bad for Mac's blood pressure, but ultimately I don't see anything to change my stated intention (specifically including, nothing in Mac's post (last second edit: posts) allays my worries). So since I now have to go:

++Macalaure

Based on this, my opinions of Lommy and Pitch haven't changed. I think Hui would've been more likely to place actual innocents in his innocent list, which makes me think better of Legate and Greenie (or at least that both of them can't be wolves).

I'd imagine that Hui wouldn't put just innocents in his suspect list and from that list I think Inzil is most likely to be his packmate. He suspects him without fully committing to it, plus I already found him to be pretty suspicious yesterDay.

The timing of Hui's vote for Mac makes me think better of Mac. He was the third to vote him and at that time it looked like there was a real chance Mac could get lynched and before the bandwagon against Hui began. I have doubts that Hui would risk that.

Will also be looking at the votes shortly.

X-ed since #595. Either I post too slow or y'all are posting too fast!

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

Before and after it became clear that the main options to vote were Mac and Huin.

That just doesn't add up.

You have four people listed as voting Huin early, and me listed as voting elsewhere late, but when I voted only Legate had voted Huin.

You also write this about the votes for you:

However, they came at a point where the bandwagons were starting to look pretty set.

Really? By the first vote only Mac and Lommy had more than a single vote, and the second vote made you tied for second most votes together with Lommy and Hui (one vote after Mac).

Fair enough if you find the votes suspicious, but your interpretation of the timing of events seems flawed.

[Pitchwife]

You have no idea how good it felt to see Hui revealed as a wolf. No. Idea.
My wife said she heard me cry YES!!! in the room above her when I read the narration.


I'm still very much convinces that Greenie is a wolf, but I'm gonna analyze Hui and the madness of the voting first
Could well be. There were a few exchanges between Hui and Greenie where it looked like he was taking guidance from her, so them being packmates doesn't seem unplausible.



Let it be said though, Mac, if you turn out to be a wolf I'll smother you under a heap of used handkerchiefs!

[Loslote]

That just doesn't add up.

You have four people listed as voting Huin early, and me listed as voting elsewhere late, but when I voted only Legate had voted Huin.

You also write this about the votes for you:

.

Really? By the first vote only Mac and Lommy had more than a single vote, and the second vote made you tied for second most votes together with Lommy and Hui (one vote after Mac).

Fair enough if you find the votes suspicious, but your interpretation of the timing of events seems flawed.

When I saw you vote, my first reaction was, "What? Why? The people who suspect me have already voted." In my opinion, you have to take into account the overall momentum, not just the actual votes. When you voted, and especially when Ka voted, the momentum had shifted so that Mac and Huin were, at least in my mind at the time, the clear front runners.

[Pitchwife]

On Hui's vocal opposition to the Brinnwagon and voting to save her: I think it's quite possible that he knew her to be innocent and was trying to make himself good in retrospect if she was lynched.


In #346 Greenie says there was something going on here, but Hui's defense of Brinn was too open for a wolf defending a packmate. In a way it is, but supposing the three of them to be packmates, it would make sense for her to try to dissociate Hui and Brinn in case either were lynched and found Infected.

[Lalaith]

Well, no more doubt around KitRanger.

YesterDay's Hueywagon turned out well, but it seemed to me to come out of nowhere. It's the same issue I had with the sudden push on Brinn the previous Day.
Adding to my trepidation was the fact that Lottie and Pitch, who I was very wary of, were on it.
Zil can I say that despite my earlier good feelings about you I don't like this as a reaction to the Hueywaggon. The first person to vote for Huey was Legate (now this I admit is not something that fits in with my current world-view but hey) but the second person was Kit who put together a good case but more importantly was to my mind at least a known innocent. So no, not "out of nowhere".
Mac
I didn't think Kitanna actually was the ranger. Dang.

Seriously? Logically, the only thing she could have been, other than the ranger, was the seer. Yesterday, I repeatedly asked people who doubted her innocence for justification and got none.
I did wonder about this yesterDay, and when that vote she led against Huey turned out so effective I really did think she really was the Seer. But well done KitRanger for leading us to catch the wolf. Hope you're celebrating in QT!

[Inziladun]

Therefore I would look toDay very hard at everyone who voted Mac after Huin got the first vote. Those were the people who protected Huin and there's almost certain to be AT LEAST one wolf in there, possibly more.

Probably.

The Hui bandwagon really did come from nowhere - I'm just glad I trusted my gut. I don't think the wolves saw that bandwagon coming, however, I do think there's a fair chance that a wolf is hiding among the Hui voters, so I will not disregard them.

I'm thinking the initial votes on him might have been unexpected, with at least one voting for him, hoping that either A. He wouldn't be lynched in the end, or B. xe would deflect a bit of suspicion for having voted for a wolf.

Another Day in which the baddies have deciding power in the QT vote. That thread has got to be getting interesting.

At least Huey and G55 can't PM. :rolleyes:

Sadly I don't think we can conclude basically anything of the Kitanna kill, any pack would've done that. I'm really not sure what to make of Brinn's statement that she thought Kit might be an ordo... like seriously????

I'm still flummoxed as to why they gave her an extra Day.

It would be convenient for a wolf to hide behind the "I trust Kit" reason. Revealed ranger, highly likely to be night killed, I can see being a good spot for a wolf to ally themselves and look good.

Oh yes. Perfect cover.

What an opening post. :eek: I am a little surprised that with all those quoted posts, your only actual comments are that Pitch and I are still suspicious...despite voting for a wolf at a pivotal moment...with no mention of the people whose votes might have worked to save Huin, which in my opinion, is a far more suspicious group of people. And which happens to include you. :rolleyes:

It wasn't really meant as an analysis, just a list (including myself).

[Inziladun]

Zil can I say that despite my earlier good feelings about you I don't like this as a reaction to the Hueywaggon. The first person to vote for Huey was Legate (now this I admit is not something that fits in with my current world-view but hey) but the second person was Kit who put together a good case but more importantly was to my mind at least a known innocent. So no, not "out of nowhere".

Not the first two votes. Legate looks solid: he had been suspecting Huey all Day. Kit was more of a surprise, but it was the way it snowballed from there that was surprising.

[Thinlómien]

Lommy -> Macalaure
Kath -> Inzil
Lhuna -> Lommy

There we go for starters. I don't find anything particularly comment-worthy about these votes in the light of how things developed, but I think Lhuna's parting shot "Friendly reminder, a bandwagon does not start with the first vote. " is still rather ominous. Care to elaborate what you were referring to, Lhuna?


Macalaure -> Lommy 2
QT -> Brinniel

Mac is consistent with his earlier suspicions, QT we can disregard.


Greenie -> Macalaure 2

Now this is interesting. The vote isn't very incriminating if you look at the tally, but if you consider that Legate had started suggesting Huine-lynch before Greenie voted and at least three people had commented on the suggestion with varying degrees of enthusiasm - while Greenie? Didn't say a word about Hui but kept talking about whether she would prefer Mac or Brinn. Now voting Mac was certainly consistent with her earlier suspicions, but as she's said herself, consistency isn't necessarily a sign of innocence. :p Of course her reasons might have been entirely innocent, but it does stand out to me that she deliberately chooses not to participate in the "is lynching Hui a good idea" discussion that's going on around her.


Legate -> Huinesoron

So: Legate had suspected Hui before, but I wouldn't say they were his main suspect. He said he was considering voting them, Lottie or Brinn, while he was reluctant to take a stand on Lommy-vs-Mac. As you can see, Brinn had one vote at this point and had been under heavy suspicion, and while Lottie had no votes, several people had mentioned her as suspicious too. Huinesoron, by comparison, seemed to be under most people's radar. I can't for the life of me fathom why legatewolf would have dragged his fellow Huine to the execution block like this when they were flying under so many people's radars, (not even if their comrades happened to be Lottie, Brinn and Mac). Especially since he literally said he doesn't want to vote Huine if nobody will join him.


Huinesoron -> Macalaure 3

I don't think this says much. Hui pretty much declared they will vote Mac before, and even if he was their fellow wolf, he was pretty resigned to getting lynched and they might have been prioritising self-preservation as suspicion was gathering around them at this point.


Rune -> Loslote
Kitanna -> Huinesoron 2
THE Ka -> Loslote 2

Now we can safely disregard Kit (sorry angel!), but Rune and THE Ka certainly stand out. When Rune voted, Huin still had only one vote, and the scene had not yet been set. Rune adding yet more candidate on the table (especially since "whether or not to spread the vote" was a minor discussion topic), is not particularly telling either way. Perhaps an uber-protective packmate would have rather voted Mac in case people would actually join Legate in a hueywagon, but I don't think Rune is that type of wolf.

THE Ka? Like Greenie, gives the vibe that she just wants to ignore the Huinescussion and perhaps silence it that way. She could have voted Lottie in hopes of creating a yet another bandwagon that might gain momentum instead of the huinewagon.


Pitchwife -> Huinesoron 3

Now this vote is the one that made Huine a serious lynch candidate. Paired with the impulsive sounding comment "You know what, let's.", it would be pretty brazen wolf-on-wolf, and frankly if Pitch is that bold as a wolf, he probably deserved not to get suspected toDay anyway.


Loslote -> Huinesoron 4

Basically voted Huine because she was considering it and Legate told her to. This btw would make wolf!Legate an absolutely brutal backstabber. If Lottie was aiming for mere self-preservation, she could have just as well gone for Mac, which I personally think Wolflote would have been more likely to do even if Mac is a wolf too.


Sally -> Macalaure 4

Another one who steered clear of the Huine issue, wondered aloud if she should vote Mac or Lottie. Went for Mac who had more votes of the two at the time when Huine was rapidly gaining more votes. Extremely dubious vote - especially if we take into account that at least to me at this point Huine didn't seem like a "lost case" at all.


Inzil -> Macalaure 5

"Because I distrust Lottie, and to a lesser extent, Pitch." Huh? Basically implied without straight up saying so that he would prefer not to lynch Huinesoron. The placement of this vote is pretty dodgy, but Inzil's last minute "Watch Huey be a wolf. :rolleyes:" (after the lynch was resolved but the deadline had not come yet) has a very innocent ring to me.


Lalaith -> Huinesoron 5
Brinn -> Huinesoron 6

These two cross-posted with each other. Lalaith had been avoiding the Huine debacle too, but said she trusts Kit, so went with them. Brinn said "let's see what happens..." Now at this point, Huine was quite possible toast already, so these votes don't strike me as as innocent as the earlier Huine votes. This was the moment when a fellow might have voted for Huine to look better, if at any point. Especially Lalaith's pious "I'm following Kit" makes me raise eyebrows a little. But to clarify: I don't think these votes are suspicious, just the least overwhelmingly innocent in the huinewagon which looks very innocent to me overall.


Boro -> Mac 6

Claims to have crossposted, I'm not sure with quite how many votes. Still, clearly a vote that was - intentionally or unintentionally - towards saving Huinesoron. Therefore, deserves scrutiny.


Eönwë -> Huinesoron 7

This one sealed the deal. As far as I understand, he was up to date and aware that he was condemning Huine. Pretty bold, when he could have as well sat back and seen what Shasta would do. Or voted Mac to save Huine. Generally a very innocent-seeming vote, but I'd like him to elaborate what he meant by the "it's going to have to be" here: "Ok, with the vote count looking as it is, it looks like it's going to have to be: ++Huinesoron"


Shasta -> Mac 7

A pointless vote, and he knew it. I don't think we can judge this much as it is, but I want to add that Shasta, too, largely refrained on commenting Hui. I wonder if he's a wolf and sat around looking at the situation develop, wondering if he should save Hui but deciding not to stick his neck out that far after all. His vote, too, was very safe.


edit: predictably xed with everyone

[Brinniel]

The votes...

Lommy -> Macalaure
Kath -> Inzil
Lhuna -> Lommy
Macalaure -> Lommy 2
QT -> Brinniel
Greenie -> Macalaure 2
Legate -> Huinesoron
Huinesoron -> Macalaure 3
Rune -> Loslote
Kitanna -> Huinesoron 2
THE Ka -> Loslote 2
Pitchwife -> Huinesoron 3
Loslote -> Huinesoron 4
Sally -> Macalaure 4
Inzil -> Macalaure 5
Lalaith -> Huinesoron 5
Brinn -> Huinesoron 6
Boro -> Mac 6
Eönwë -> Huinesoron 7
Shasta -> Mac 7

Least suspicious votes of the Hui voters are Legate and Pitchwife. They were earlier and really got the ball rolling. Eonwe or Lalaith could possibly be wolf-on-wolf votes if they thought he was not worth saving. I'm somewhere in between the two on Lottie.

Of the Mac voters, I find Inzil's to be most suspect, as his vote came smack dab in the middle. Lommy's vote seems least suspicious to me due to its timing. Shasta voted after any vote really mattered which doesn't tell me much. I think there could be another wolf hiding among this group - maybe Boro, Sally, or to a lesser extent Greenie.

Five players did not vote either Hui or Mac and I feel fairly certain at least one is a baddie floating under the radar. Mac seems innocentish due to reasons I previously mentioned. I feel a little better about Kath because I agree with her suspicion of Inzil and he potentially could've been a lynch candidate at that point when she voted. Worse about Lhuna based on some of her posts yesterDay (including the parting comment about bandwagons). And I really go back and forth on Rune and Greenie - not sure what to think of them. This is a group I will probably take a better look at later this evening.

X-ed with Lommy

[Macalaure]

I will have the advantage to analyze the voting knowing the role of both main targets.

Lommy -> Mac (1)
Kicking it off. There was widespread suspicion of me at the time. The bandwaggon was fueled up, and Lommy turned the ignition. This would be the mean way to interpret it. On the other hand, Lommy had been after me for a while and her vote is consistent with that.

Kath -> Inzil (1)
Not much to say here. This vote looks fine to me.

Lhuna -> Lommy (1)
Not really following her suspicion, to be honest, but other than that this one seems fine enough.

Mac -> Lommy (2)
Not the smartest vote of my life, but hey. :D

QT -> Brinniel (1)
(known cobbler vote)

Greenie -> Mac (2)
There's a bunch of things that feel wrong about the way she's been suspecting me, but I think I'll get to that later. The vote by itself doesn't seem bad.

Legate -> Huin (1)
My Hero!

An early vote for Huin could be a wolf-on-wolf, but:
- he urged others to follow, which wolf-on-wolfers tend to not do
- it came at a time where a swing towards Huin was already in the air

Huin -> Mac (3)
(known wolf vote)

Rune -> Loslote (1)
Votes for his prime suspect at a time where a swing was still possible, so this seems ok with me.

Kitanna -> Huin (2)
(known innocent vote)

THE Ka -> Loslote (2)
Her reasoning is pretty close to Kitanna's. I'm ok with this one.

Pitch -> Huin (3)
The vote that made it an official bandwaggon. If this was wolf-on-wolf, it was as cold as a dog's snout.

Loslote -> Huin (4)
Loslote might have felt some heat at this point, but if this was all about wolfish self-preservation, she could have very easily justified a vote for me at this point. Pretty innocent.

Sally -> Mac (4)
No, Sally! Bad, Sally!

Inzil -> Mac (5)
Not a good look right there.

Lalaith -> Huin (5)
Lalaith was fairly uncommitted at this point, and probably could have justified a vote for nearly anyone, so this looks pretty good to me.

Brinn -> Huin (6)
Stated a possible vote for him for a while at this point, so this again looks pretty innocent.

Boro -> Mac (6)
At this point, wolf-saving-wolf votes become a bit bold, because they're so glaring. I can't wrap my mind around Boro. He needs looking at.

Eonwe -> Huin (7)
The final death sentence. At this point, Huin was of course ready to be sacrificed for the other wolves. Still, he could've gone with someone else. Stated willingness to vote for him before.

Shasta -> Mac (7)
Waited until everything was decided. Mildly eyebrow-raising.

Suspicion based on votes only:
Bad: Sally, Inzil
Not good: Boro
Neutral: Lommy, Lhuna, Greenie, Shasta
Ok: Rune, THE Ka, Eonwe
Good: Kath, Legate, Pitch, Loslote, Lalaith, Brinn

[Pitchwife]

On the people Hui soft-suspected but never voted (possible wolf-on-wolf): There was a lot of to-and-fro with and about Lommy (which I need to look at again), and he suspected Lottie and Zil, but only in combination with each other (which IMO makes it unlikely they're both wolves). Zil was more wolvish according to him ('a better-than-even-chance he's a wolf', #429), Lottie only in association with him.

This could be Hui mildly suspecting packmate Lottie but really trying to tarnish Zil, or trying to tarnish innocent Lottie by association if Zil would be found a wolf at some point. Or possibly just casting suspicion on two innocents.
And then of course there's myself, which I leave to you.

[Brinniel]

Five players did not vote either Hui or Mac and I feel fairly certain at least one is a baddie floating under the radar. Mac seems innocentish due to reasons I previously mentioned. I feel a little better about Kath because I agree with her suspicion of Inzil and he potentially could've been a lynch candidate at that point when she voted. Worse about Lhuna based on some of her posts yesterDay (including the parting comment about bandwagons). And I really go back and forth on Rune and Greenie - not sure what to think of them. This is a group I will probably take a better look at later this evening.

Just realized there are six voters in this group - completely missed Ka! Gotta keep a better eye on her as she's clearly flying under my radar.

X-ed with Mac and Pitch

[A Little Green]

Oh the joys of social distancing – I actually spent my Friday night rereading the entire thread. :rolleyes: I feel like I developed tunnel vision throughout yesterDay (probably because I had less time while there was more going on in the thread) and was missing a lot of what was going on. I also wanted to look at the last two Days in light of Huin’s role and see who actually fits with him and who doesn’t.
I haven’t included everything everyone said or did, just things that stood out to me – and even so this turned out to be the longest WW post I’ve ever written. Sorry Rune. :p

Lommy
- D1: G55, D2: Mac
- Suspected by Huin both days but not voted by him at any point; Huin’s D1 suspicion becomes polite back and forth about exaggerating trademark behaviours as a cover
- Suspects Huin for fabricated-seeming arguments, Boro for being non-confrontational and not himself, Pitch for grasping at straws, and Lottie, Kit and Rune for vague wrong-way rub (sidenote: if Lommy is a wolf, this would be a good category to lump a fellow in)
- Later flip-flops about Lottie; would prefer not to lynch Lhuna or Rikae or “maybe not Pitch either”
- D2 reminds village that Brinnwagon doesn’t mean Brinn is innocent; then analyses Rikae’s posts and concludes Mac looks worse than Brinn; says if Brinn is innocent Boro looks better and Lottie looks worse; suspects Lottie (wolfy pov) and Mac
- Worried about Huin but says this is probably a thinking style thing and doesn’t think there’s any particular thing that looks suspicious; then later when he’s starting to emerge as a lynch candidate: “Well that would be a Plot Twist but not necessarily a bad one.”
- Nervous about Lhuna’s “parting shot”
- Speculates about a Mac-Lhuna-Greenie pack (I'm actually disappointed we don't have one as this would be epic!); thinks Inzil looks innocent
- Has bad feeling about Huinwagon. Knee-jerk reaction: this makes me feel better about Lommy. A Lomwolf, minutes before deadline with the lynch of a fellow wolf imminent, probably wouldn’t say she has a bad feeling about the bandwagon against him and will look closer at it toMorrow. Or if she did it’s genius.
- Overall impression: could be anything. Early back and forth suspicion with Huin looks just tame enough to be wolf-on-wolf, especially as they seemingly consider voting each other but don’t; also the whole “voting Huinesoron would be a plot twist but not necessarily bad” looks noncommittal enough to fit as well. On the other hand, as noted above, saying she has a bad feeling about the Huinwagon when it’s already established that he’s going to be lynched would be a weird move from a fellow wolf. In terms of interactions with others and general, non-Huin-related things, she has seemed a little jumpier than usual, like in her reaction to Lhuna’s “parting shot” – I read this as completely unrelated to Lommy and found it odd that she jumped on it. But at the same time, her arguments look reasonable and seem like they’re made from an innocent starting point. So I don’t know. (How fitting that I flip-flop on the Queen of Flip-Flops!)

Legate
- D1: Brinn, D2: Huin
- Huin defends him and suggests he was set up in the discussion following the fake vote plan; Legate doesn’t believe he was being set up by Pitch or others, more suspicious of people who brought this up
- D1 red zone Kit , Eonwe, Greenie and Huin; points out Huin’s G55 vote to save Brinn looks like a wolf saving a packmate
- D2 continues Kit discussion by criticising it with a fairly long post; is questioned by Lalaith on why he criticised those who brought this up but still has Kit on his suspect list
- Considers voting Huin, Lottie, or Brinn; first to bring voting Huin to the table
- Overall impression: leaning innocent. He has suspected Huin from D1 and was the first to bring up voting for him on D2. Huin did defend him on D1, and I don’t really get his response to the whole Kit debacle, but his role in the Huin lynch makes it hard to see him as a wolf.

Lottie
- D1: G55, D2: Huin
- Huin calls her ”somewhat suspicious” on D1
- Agrees with Huin’s G55/Pitch wolf pack -theory and later explicitly says she “finds herself agreeing with Huin a lot” – too blatant for packmates? Later says she would prefer to lynch G55 or Pitch over Brinn, and that she still thinks both G55 and Pitch are wolves; Lommy points out she seems very certain about this for D1
- Takes a ”voice of reason” role in argument between Rikae and G55
- D2 says wolves wouldn’t have rushed to save potential ranger – I might have read this wrong though. If I didn’t, this could imply a wish to make Sally look innocent
- D1 flipflops on Brinn; D2 analyses Brinnwagon assuming Brinn is innocent, says it implicates Legate, Rune, and Mac; seems to have dropped suspicion of Pitch though does say “hasn’t ruled out” a Pitchwolf; later elaborates re: Brinn and says the voting patterns looked like wolves picking between two innocents
- Boro points out Lottie and Inzil boxed the D1 vote between G55 and Brinn, and look suspicious regardless of Brinn’s role; Huin also brings up a connection between Lottie and Inzil, and says Lottie only looks suspicious in connection with Inzil. This makes me doubt both Inzil and Lottie are wolves.
- Suspects participants in the Kit discussion, later elaborates on especially suspecting Inzil and adds lesser suspicions of Boro, Mac and Lommy. In a later post seems to forget Lhuna’s part in discussing Kit, admits this and says it’s a likely bias from getting a general innocent vibe of Lhuna from before
- Says she gets sketchy vibe from Huin, not opposed to lynching him; later votes for him.
- Overall impression: leaning innocent. I started off thinking Lottie is playing safe – others have pointed out that she seems to concentrate on topics that are already controversial, and that she seems almost too measured and consistent. Reading through, I do think there’s some merit to this but I have a hard time seeing her as Huin’s packmate; the D1 repeated and explicit agreeing with Huin doesn’t tally with an otherwise measured and careful Lottiewolf. She also votes for him on a “sketchy vibe” though she had previously expressed suspicion of the other potential lynchee (Mac) and so could have easily voted for him without looking like she was trying to save a packmate. (Unless Mac is a wolf too, in which case this wouldn’t matter.)

Pitchwife
- D1: Brinn, D2: Huin
- Was somewhat suspected on D1 but this seemed to mostly evaporate overNight
- Pinned fake vote plan on Legate – this actually looks reasonable on rereading as he specifically criticises Legate’s plan of a pre-DL DL. Huin suspects him for this and for Brinnwagoning both D1 and D2
- Also suspected by Rikae, more directly than I remembered; this could point to another possibility on why Rikae was targeted.
- D1 suspects “pitchwagoners” Rikae, Brinn, Kitanna and Lottie.
- D2 says Rikae kill “may implicate Brinn, except isn’t that almost too obvious?” – I don’t like this pot-stirring tone
- D1 thinks Huin seems innocentish, D2 suspects Huin and votes for him
- Fourth to bring up Kit but criticises Inzil for initiating it
- Overall impression: leaning innocent. Pitch is another Huin-voter so another less likely pairing – especially given Huin’s persistent suspicion of him. Moreover, Huin’s continued focus on “the GLP” (which sounds like a government department btw) throughout D1 and well into D2 would be weird if it implicated a fellow wolf.

Kath
- D1: G55, D2: Inzil
- Another voice of reason -type person; helpful and sensible, which doesn’t say anything about her role. I actually got very little out of Kath though she’s been quite active, and this is somewhat worrying.
- D1 the only thing that stood out to me was that she was very relieved (I think she actually used that word) that Eonwe saw the fake vote plan the same way she did. Not much, but I think Kath/Eonwe is moderately unlikely as a wolf pair.
- D2 suspects and votes for Inzil because of him bringing up and discussing Kit.
- Overall impression: could be anything. Barely interacts with Huin, which could be coincidence (it’s a big village) or could be deliberate.

Lhuna
- D1 Lhuna, D2 Lommy
- D1 uneasy about Brinn, Inzil, Kit, Mac and Boro; still votes herself
- Third to bring up Kit on D2
- Brings up need to analyse G55 voters as well since she was also technically an innocent; thinks Kath looks fishy, Inzil suspiciously bandwagonny, Lottie sincere, Lommy wicked, tricksy, false, Brinn suspicious, speculates about possible Huin/Brinn pair
- Might vote for Lommy, Brinn or Mac; settles on Lommy and makes a comment about bandwagons not starting with the first vote that Lommy and Boro find ominous
- Initial thoughts: could be anything. No interaction with Huin aside from suggesting he could be in cahoots with Brinn for trying to save her on D1 – possibly not something their fellow would want to bring up if true, but then, it had already been suggested by others by that point so in itself tells us very little. I’m not sure where her suspicion of Lommy came from, and not comfortable with her role in discussing Kit.

Inzil
- D1: G55, D2: Mac
- Suspected but not voted for by Huin on both days, chiefly for flying under the radar despite high post count
- D1 trying to decide whether Legate or G55 makes him more uneasy; later says inclined to vote G55
- Doesn’t like Brinnwagon and says he is “always suspicious of sudden bandwagons”
- D2 says Rikae being the first to vote Brinn is significant deciding factor for Night kill as it’s too early for wolves to make a frame kill.
- First to bring up up Kit – either planned wolf move (possibly counting on Kit being lynched if left alone by wolves long enough?) or bad judgment call; later also pushes idea of a Kitwolf
- Boro points out Lottie and Inzil boxed vote between G55 and Brinn, and says they are both suspicious regardless of Brinn’s role; the potential Lottie connection is also brought up by Huin
- Says he could vote for Mac, Brinn or Lottie; says he isn’t at ease with Huin, but wouldn’t vote for him yet; votes Mac because he distrusts Lottie and Pitch – vote placement sketchy considering Huin’s role
- Overall impression: very possible wolf. Vote ideally placed for trying to save Huin, while saying he “isn’t at ease with Huin” works to make it look less like an effort to save a fellow. Meanwhile, Huin suspected him on both days but, like with Lommy, didn’t actually vote for him. Also the poking of Kitanna looks bad.

Boro
- D1: Pitchwife, D2: Mac
- Somewhat noncommittal and weird Day 1, much more engaged Day 2
- D1 fake votes Legate, switches to Pitch for “playing both sides” and sowing suspicion against both G55 and Legate
- D2 started with assuming Brinn is a wolf but then later seems to accept her behaviour as innocentish; possibly the earlier “assuming she is a wolf” was to test how she would react?
- Huin calls him somewhat suspicious on D1 and on D2 Huin gets unarticulated bad vibes and lists him as one of his top suspects
- Says he doesn’t want to lynch Lommy, Huin or Inzil; votes Mac
- Overall impression: could be anything. I’m finding it hard to follow his reasoning in this game. Interactions with Huin could go either way – Huin suspects him but doesn’t do much about it while he says he doesn’t want Huin lynched, all of which isn't incompatible with wolf-on-wolf. My gut feeling says innocent but so far I haven’t seen anything that would prove it.

Lalaith
- D1: no vote, D2: Huin
- D2: says Greenie, Sally & Inzil feel honest, flipflops about Mac, wary of Legate, takes issue with Brinn’s analysis of the Night kill; later suspicious of Legate and thinks Pitch isn’t getting enough attention despite being on Rikae’s list. The point about Pitch is legitimate.
- Votes Huin because trusts Kit, doesn’t like the options as Legate is her top suspect.
- Overall impression: leaning innocent. Voting for a fellow wolf while saying you don’t really want to doesn’t make sense to me. She had mentioned Mac before and could easily have come up with a reason to pick him over Huin (although, as with Lottie, if Mac is a wolf too this doesn't mean anything). Also independent thinking and her reactions to the whole Kit thing seem sensible to me.

Brinniel
- D1: G55, D2: Huin
- Huin first calls her ”somewhat suspicious” on D1 – then later explicitly defends her to the point that he says he votes G55 to save her – this is maybe even too explicit for packmates?
- D1 wary of G55 and Pitch but doesn’t want to be involved in lynching them as fears being manipulated into it by wolves; says she would go for Inzil; says Pitchwife is most suspicious out of GLP but also that she wants to have a look at those building a case against Pitchwife; later says inclined to vote Kit after a reread of her posts
- D2 somewhat paranoid about Rikae kill – though Lommy had good point about Rikae’s suspicion of her not looking like a Seer with a known wolf
- “Slightly worried” about Huin on D2; votes for him because prefers him to Mac as a lynchee
- Overall impression: possible wolf. Huin’s defensiveness of her is an obvious red flag, though so obvious it’s almost implausible. Her vote for him also makes them slightly less likely packmates (though again, Mac's role does impact this). On the other hand, she does seem over-concerned about not being implicated in anything suspicious. Sigh. I’m inclined to look elsewhere toDay just to keep from getting stuck in my old rut again.

Eönwë
- D1: Urwen, D2: Huin
- D1 noticeably careful and diplomatic: points out Lommy, Zil and Brinn are standing in the sidelines of GLP and wouldn’t be surprised if there was a wolf among them; “unsure” about G55 and Boro; doesn’t voice any outright suspicions on D1, votes Urwen which was a very safe place to go
- D2 speculates on possible wolf pairings – suggests Pitch/Boro and if Brinn is a wolf, either Legate or THE Ka as her packmate due to safe-ish wolf-on-wolf vote placing
- Brings up Shasta’s reaction to Kit and even half-heartedly speculates they are wolves together – this looks like a further attempt to distract from Kit’s slip and makes him look better; later when it’s out in the open brings up how this exchange makes Shasta look innocent
- Lists Lommy and Boro under alarm bells, says hasn’t taken Kit off the hook
- Near DL says Mac looks better and doesn’t suspect Lottie, could vote Brinn or Huin; tie-breaker vote for Huin
- Overall impression: likely innocent. His vote broke the tie in favour of lynching Huin (again final judgment on this depends on Mac), and his reactions to Shasta and Kit look like something that an innocent would do but that wouldn’t necessarily occur to a wolf. Not sure why he didn’t take Kit off the hook, though.

Macalaure
- D1: Brinn, D2: Lommy
- D1 doesn’t like GLP gaining momentum
- D2 paranoid about Rikae kill, and has somewhat wolfish thought processes (convenient evolution of his Brinn suspicion on D1, complex theory about G55 and Rikae and wolf ploy to frame him on D2); interestingly, had joking suicidal tendencies already on D1 when he fake voted himself. This makes me feel a bit better about him actually.
- Reaction to being potential lynch fodder more resigned than desperate, acting more normal towards the end of the Day
- D1 Huin repeatedly says he doesn’t see why Mac is suspicious, and seems to think Mac is suspected more than he actually was at that point; meanwhile Mac says Huin seems reasonable. Then on D2 Mac is one of Huin’s top suspects and is voted by him.
- Suspects Greenie and Lommy; later lists Huin under “very bad” along with me, but this is after he had already voted so couldn’t act on it.
- Overall impression: still possible wolf. Huin’s defence of Mac and exaggeration of how much Mac was suspected could be nervous packmate behaviour, but as with Brinn, it’s almost too blatant. Then on D2 they both suspect each other, though Mac suspects Huin only after he has already voted for Lommy. Huin’s vote for Mac doesn’t necessarily tell us much either way, as his own head was on the block by then. Aside from Huin, the paranoid theories about Rikae and Cobbler55 still don’t sit right with me. But again as with Brinn, I’ll try to look elsewhere too today.

Rune
- D1: Brinn, D2: Lottie
- Sensible, to the point, unalarming; goes against the flow
- D1 suspects Kitanna and Eonwe, thinks the case against Brinn has merit; wants to vote Eonwe but decides on Brinn as a self-proclaimed pragmatist.
- Overall impression: gut says innocent, but could be anything. Barely interacts with Huin, again could be coincidence given the size of the village or could be deliberate distancing.

THE Ka
- D1: Brinn, D2: Lottie
- Calm, careful and reasonable, keeps out of arguments
- Suspects Brinn and Lottie for playing it safe on D1; points out Lottie’s overt support of Huin; if Lottie does turn out to be a wolf after all, this makes me feel better about Ka
- D2 is the second to initially point out Kit’s slip, but doesn’t take part in the later discussion about it with Kit herself
- Suspects Lottie for playing safe, polished, too consistent
- Overall impression: could be anything. Barely interacts with Huin. Arguments against Lottie seem solid. I don’t like how she seconded Inzil’s pointing to Kit; though if Inzil turns out to be guilty, this looks better on Ka, because for two wolves to implicate themselves in initially drawing attention to a Gifted this way would be unnecessarily risky.

Sally
- D1: Brinn, D2: Mac
- Not much to go on D1.
- D2 suspects Eonwe, Mac, Lottie and halfheartedly Brinn; Lommy points out her choices are very uncontroversial; wants to vote Lottie or Mac, ends up with Mac because of “better odds”. Sketchy in light of Huin’s role.
- Overall impression: possible wolf. Doesn’t interact with Huin. Not really enough to base a proper analysis on, but the safe suspect choices, combined with a vote that would have been ideally placed to try to save Huin, do make her look pretty suspicious at the moment.

Shasta
- D1: Pitch, D2: Mac
- Psychic about G55 and Rikae; fake votes Lommy (“first real ping”)
- Pretty much the only sensible innocent reaction to Kit (aside from those who didn’t say anything)
- D2 okay to vote Brinn, Mac or Pitch, feels good about Eonwe and Lottie; votes Mac “for the aesthetic”, Huin already a goner by this point
- Overall impression: leaning innocent, mainly on account of a general gut feeling and his attempt to subtly protect Kit. Doesn’t really interact with Huin, and his vote doesn’t mean much since he knew it wouldn’t have changed anything either way.

[THE Ka]

Mais enfin...
That’s not the best of signs to lose a Ranger in the earlier half of the game. On the flip side, I still wonder why Kit was rather honest in the last wee moments of Day 1 to G55’s bluff (unless just hoping that it could be left as a clue to others and hopefully never mentioned again? Yet it does the opposite and then is brought up half way through Day 2 until attempted to be hushed).
I can see the merit in wanting to hint to villagers for keeping you around or swaying opinion to protect yourself, but at the same time that’s a big risk since the wolves are going to see it as well.

It would be easy for the wolves to sacrifice either one of them to clear the other.

Even if Mac is a wolf too, he was surely the more expendable one out of the two with the amount of suspicion he'd garnered, while Huin had largely slipped unnoticed until the last minute bandwagon.

Possibly when it became clear that Mac was trying too hard, Huey’s flip-flopping became an alternative because others had mentioned it as a possibility? Again, whether Mac is a wolf or innocent, it could have been used by wolves and when it didn’t push as easily one of their own takes the short straw due to leaving too many loose ends or weak arguments.


Still stand by what I said yesterday of pushing Mac right on through, it was just orchestrated too easily and I’d rather throw bumps in the road to examine who protests the most. Will admit that once I had a chance to re-read previous posts, Legate's suspicions on Lottie did stand out to me when I was looking at who could possibly gain the most on the Mac distraction. By the time I posted I knew it was going to be swamped by Mac votes and was preparing for foot stomping that I was being a spoil-sport, however, I didn't see Rune's vote until after since I was writing my vote in a separate window and reading posts backwards. I just assumed afterwards, he read the same as I.

[Macalaure]

This exchange!

Watch Huey be a wolf. :rolleyes:
I hope so, even though it would make me look awful.
Both of us, but yes.

Inzil's first comment might just be an innocent "oh boy, maybe I voted for the wrong person", but Sally's is chock-full of wolfish vote-self-awareness.

[Thinlómien]

Of course it's possible that both Mac and Huin were wolves, but I would find it surprising if the wolves were completely unable to produce a single other viable bandwagon to counter two bandwagons on wolves. The Zil bandwagon, for example, could have been encouraged and pushed harder without too much suspicion on the people pushing it. The bandwagon on me probably could've been pushed harder - there were more people interested in voting me, though Legate and Lommy at least voted early. If both Mac and Huin were wolves, I would've expected to see more pressure in those directions, which we just didn't really see. This is actually a very good point. Unless of course the wolf pack really agreed with Mac's extremely pessimistic view on his chances to survive the Day and decided to bandwagon on him to make themselves look better "when" he'd die. (I'm sorry but I would find this terribly funny. :D)

Oh and well, Evil side has control of the QT vote today as well. It will be interesting to see what vote they give us. Since the vote comes 2 hours before our own DL, with how our DL's go. I'm wondering if we try the "proposed vote" again today...like someone said, "fake vote" just sounds inaccurate. Then see what the evil QT vote gives us. Unless something unexpected happens, yes. Which by the way makes stuff more interesting, because we will basically get a known wolf vote. They can bluff or double bluff or whatever but they're nonetheless leaving a trace :smokin:

Also Mac are you trying to butter me up so you wouldn't have to spend another Day defending yourself? :p


edit xed with Greenie's ooc megapost !! and those after it

[Inziladun]

Of the Mac voters, I find Inzil's to be most suspect, as his vote came smack dab in the middle.

It's a given that the votes are scrutinized: that's the best evidence we have.
At that time, I was still fixed on the Rikae-as-possible-Seer idea, and Mac was the only one of their suspects I thought had a shot at being lynched.
Huey was not really on my radar, mainly because it seemed every time I tried to scan one of his posts my brain muttered "what is he talking about?"
I was highly tempted to vote him after I saw Kit, because I was 99% sure she wasn't evil. Then Pitch and Lottie voted for him and I was not going to throw in with people who had been talking about lynching me. Petty, yes. Sorry.

x/d with all since #619

[Macalaure]

Also Mac are you trying to butter me up so you wouldn't have to spend another Day defending yourself? :p

We should limit trips to the grocery store, so I'm not gonna waste that butter. :p You're still a second-tier suspect for me.

[Thinlómien]

Watch Huey be a wolf. :rolleyes:

Zil, would you like to clarify this?

Because Mac seems to be reading it as "sheesh, I bet since I voted Mac, Huey's gonna be the wolf here"

while I read it as "lol you people who voted Huey, if he's a wolf I'm a horse"

so.... which one was it? Or something else?

[A Little Green]

So looks like that novel of mine basically grouped people into three categories:

Leaning innocent:
Legate
Lottie
Pitch
Lalaith
Eonwe
Shasta

Could be anything:
Lommy
Kath
Lhuna
Boro
Rune
THE Ka

Possible wolf:
Inzil
Brinn
Mac
Sally

I'll just leave that there and go to bed now :D

[Inziladun]

Zil, would you like to clarify this?

Because Mac seems to be reading it as "sheesh, I bet since I voted Mac, Huey's gonna be the wolf here

That's it exactly. Swing-and a-miss.

[Pitchwife]

I need to get up in about seven hours, so it's bedtime now. May have limited time tomorrow due to puppies moving out, but I'll be back a few hours before DL.

Data is enough of a personally beloved character to know that he was distinctly without contractions.
Which is of course what I meant, but I guess my subconscious stuck the negative in there just to use a contraction.:p

“the GLP” (which sounds like a government department btw)
I prefer LPG, which was the abbreviation for "Landwirtschaftliche Produktionsgenossenschaft" in the GDR.

[Inziladun]

Zil, would you like to clarify this?

Because Mac seems to be reading it as "sheesh, I bet since I voted Mac, Huey's gonna be the wolf here"

I think my actual thought was "Did I really misread things that badly? Are Pitch and Lottie really innocent?

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Okay, I have been re-reading the votes from yesterDay. I kinda wanted to look at each vote and consider what it would mean if the vote in question always came from a Wolf, how likely it is, and such. (Of course, the reality is more complicated, as there are four Wolves, and we don't know whether Mac isn't one of them. But we deal with what we can. One thing at a time.)

Lommy->Mac - Lommy's vote came early and started a bandwagon for a person who had gained a lot of talk in the village that Day and it was probable he would get votes. If Mac is innocent, then it's a simple matter of Wolf starting a bandwagon against an innocent. If Mac is guilty, it makes Lommy look better, even though even in such a case a Wolfmmy could also have easily hidden her vote for a fellow Wolf among a bandwagon that may not have necessarily succeeded.

Kath->Zil - kind of a similar case (except the bandwagon got no continuation. There certainly was potential for it, however. But for Mac, people like Greenie had been voicing their suspicion and possibility to vote, unlike here).

Lhuna->Lommy - This is interesting but requires already a lot of speculation (entering territory we know little of: everything would depend whether Mac is a Wolf, whether Lommy is a Wolf, etc etc). Could look into it, but as stand-alone, hard to say anything.

Mac->Lommy 2. Kind of a normal retaliation. Of course also possible place for safe Wolf-on-Wolf. But again, a lot would depend on whether yesterDay happened to be bandwagons for two Wolves. I will try to limit this to the "hard data", otherwise we could just as well close shop.

QT->Brinniel. I said something about it yesterDay. It could have easily turned into a bandwagon, the fact that it didn't I take partly on myself, because I considered it and then opted for Hui, which drew other people.

Greenie->Mac 2. Again, see Lommy. Note: she considered Brinniel equally much but opted for Mac (Greenie, why did you choose Mac over Brinn in the end?)

Legate-> Hui and here it starts, from this moment, there is a bandwagon for a known Wolf. It should be noted however that this was, preceded by a lengthy debate - at this point, I assumed at least two other people to vote for Hui as well (interestingly, that was Kit and Lottie, but also Boro who later turned absolutely away from it. Boro, could tell what led you to it?).
I'll actually quote my post there:
I'm about done on a more thorough look of Lhuna. I was overall feeling good. I mean the Day 1 wasn't giving me anything, but really liked her point on Kit and response to Lottie. Agree with Lommy on how Lhuna's vote looks, but just about done with Lhuna's post.

Maybe too late and near DL to look through Huey for consideration today, but he's worth a thorough look.
Someone else said this recently too (Legate maybe?) and I've been slowly reading through his posts and I am starting to agree there's something going on there.

Yeah, that was me. Mac then spoke about it later (another of the posts of his that piqued my interest - for a different reason, mostly because he suddenly was in accord with many of my own thoughts), but he has already cast his vote.

But I may go for it - or Lottie could be another option.
By the way this post of mine crossposted with Lottie who also said she would go for Hui.

Hui->Mac 3. I consider this important because Hui could have picked other ways to save himself (like go for Brinn or push for whatever else was in the air). First thought is of course that Mac is therefore innocent.

Rune->Lottie. Now depending on the context this could be anything: a throwaway, likely though not an attempt to save a packmate (too little momentum already and stronger bandwagons elsewhere). It looks mostly like an innocent going stubbornly after his own.

It swung literally when Kit voted Hui (2)(I didn't realise it at that time, but it totally did). Now we know both their roles, so nothing more to add to this.

Ka->Lottie 2 created the possibility of a bandwagon that never was. One could analyse this vote - but as of now, I don't have the strength. By this point, Lottie was still "leaning towards voting Huinesoron" and Mac was still one vote ahead (so, two would be needed to make Hui lead).

Then Pitch voted Hui (3), and that was the second moment. Pitch's vote, to me, stands as the "clearest" - again provided Mac isn't a Wolf too. Or more like, if all other options weren't wolves, because there would still have been ways to vote somebody third.

Lottie->Hui 4. I was originally rather suspicious about Lottie's vote yesterDay and basically would echo Rune's misgivings about her toDay (her post toDay with the vote list that really looked like she arbitrarily drew the line of "good votes" after herself). But on re-read of the actual voting, the way the voting went makes me feel better about her. She voted Hui after some deliberation. There was some three minute pause between Pitch's and her vote, and it was Lottie who swung the vote towards Hui. Would a Wolf (even if we discount Macwolf possibility) do that? Well, could - to exonerate themselves. A Lothwolf could have fatalistically cast her vote - especially after she's been talking about it as option before - and waited to see what happened. She was also gaining votes herself, so who knows. But it was a very well-placed vote and she had been talking about it before, that's for sure.

Sally->Mac 4. Sally's vote could look possibly the worst alone (again, unless Mac is a Wolf too), she's been steering clear of Hui and raising the bar that allowed Macwagon to make a comeback. But then again: she was following her original suspicion, and obviously no reason to switch to Hui. Also it would be a very blunt action to save a packmate, let's not forget that.

Zil->Mac 5, on the other hand, voted Mac to the lead... "because he distrusted Lottie and Pitch"? I know you mentioned that, but specifically here, what did you mean by it? Again, otherwise, also would be rather blunt action to try to save Hui... But these things are all hard to judge.

Some remarks about voting intentions came in between those that deserve mention.

Brinn said at this point that she had wanted to vote Zil but would rather see Hui lynched over Mac. That leans better - again, unless Mac is also a Wolf.

Eönwë seemed to be waiting and waiting just like the Day before - something I took for potential calculated Wolfism.

Lalaith -> Hui 5 because she trusted Kit - that's kinda straightforward. More importantly, she clearly did so when Mac was in the lead, but also more people (Brinn) were still to vote and it looked like they would go for Hui. It may have been a safe time to seal a packmate's fate and make herself look better. But overall that vote makes me feel better of her.

Boro->Mac 5 - I need to take a look at what Boro said about Hui altogether. His vote for Mac crossed and happened just when Hui was already in the lead, so it didn't change anything. I'm now kinda leaning not to give much meaning to this vote. But I really want to see what he said about Hui.

Eönwë's final vote (for Hui) was kinda inconsequential whichever role he has, could have gone either way. Perhaps as a Wolf he would have been more proactive... but again: this all not considering the option of Macwolf.

Shasta (for Mac, for symmetry) was the same and did nothing. Both him and Steve were in the position to move in, but as Wolves would have had the dilemma: do a blunt "save a fellow" move, or put a nail in his coffin? They opted for neither, in a sense. In any case, they opted for not actively saving him, that's for sure. I'm not going to suspect them just based on this.

Conclusion? Well, there are still unknowns in the whole thing. But this could help looking from some perspectives...

And I basically crossposted with everything, I'm sure, but let's see.

[Thinlómien]

Zil, would you like to clarify this?

Because Mac seems to be reading it as "sheesh, I bet since I voted Mac, Huey's gonna be the wolf here
That's it exactly. Swing-and a-miss. Ah, thank you for your honesty. Sadly it makes me less convinced of your innocence. :p See, I was pretty sure late yesterDay that Huin was going to be innocent just because I have never seen a last minute bandwagon of someone not-particularly-much-suspected lead to a wolf lynch, so I thought you were thinking the same (and that's what I assumed in my vote summary post). But okay! In this case, your comment could have been as well wolfy as innocent.

Also:
I think my actual thought was "Did I really misread things that badly? Are Pitch and Lottie really innocent? Is there a reason you have been so fixated on those two in this game?


edit: xed with Legate

[Inziladun]

Zil->Mac 5, on the other hand, voted Mac to the lead... "because he distrusted Lottie and Pitch"? I know you mentioned that, but specifically here, what did you mean by it? Again, otherwise, also would be rather blunt action to try to save Hui... But these things are all hard to judge.

Both had been suspecting me a good portion of the Day, and it appeared they were feeding off one another. I simply didn't want to vote the same way they did.

[Inziladun]

Also:
Is there a reason you have been so fixated on those two in this game?

It goes back to Rikae's "suspects".

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Few haphazard things before I go to bed...
That’s not the best of signs to lose a Ranger in the earlier half of the game. On the flip side, I still wonder why Kit was rather honest in the last wee moments of Day 1 to G55’s bluff (unless just hoping that it could be left as a clue to others and hopefully never mentioned again? Yet it does the opposite and then is brought up half way through Day 2 until attempted to be hushed).
I can see the merit in wanting to hint to villagers for keeping you around or swaying opinion to protect yourself, but at the same time that’s a big risk since the wolves are going to see it as well.
I think that's what it was - a very unfortunate momentary reaction. Had she had time to process it, things might have been different. That's why I still kinda wished it had not been discussed, because especially after her survival, there may have been a chance to play it out to leave the Wolves uncertain. (Likely not, but anyway.)

Oh and well, Evil side has control of the QT vote today as well. It will be interesting to see what vote they give us. Since the vote comes 2 hours before our own DL, with how our DL's go. I'm wondering if we try the "proposed vote" again today...like someone said, "fake vote" just sounds inaccurate. Then see what the evil QT vote gives us.
Yeah, let's keep that in mind. But actually, especially with the Evil QT, I am again (just like yesterDay with the Cobbler there) against any such vote. Because what use is it now? Only to tell the Evil QT what we are likely to do. Nopes. WWs would use it to signal the QT. Nopes. Anyone who does so goes into my suspect book. (Starting from you right now, *ping*(TM).)

Seriously? Logically, the only thing she could have been, other than the ranger, was the seer. Yesterday, I repeatedly asked people who doubted her innocence for justification and got none.
Note: not true, as I answered to you yesterDay, you can look it up. (Plus see what I said now to Ka).

Bruh. Off to sleep and hopefully come in full strength with fresh braaains later.

[THE Ka]

Because what use is it now? Only to tell the Evil QT what we are likely to do. Nopes. WWs would use it to signal the QT. Nopes.

Going to have to agree. It's up the same stream as gifted trying to leave clues or knee jerk attempts to save by villagers, no matter how tempting and ideal, it's going to be used by wolves too.

[satansaloser2005]

Inzil's first comment might just be an innocent "oh boy, maybe I voted for the wrong person", but Sally's is chock-full of wolfish vote-self-awareness.

More like I was hoping for the best outcome regardless of the consequences I knew it would have for me. Dun and I are saying the same thing, but I'm being more open about the way it looks. You're being overly paranoid again, big bad Mac.

I can't find the other thing I meant to quote right now. Bother.

But to briefly address the idea that I might have voted Mac to save a wolf Hui, I actually have a rather cutthroat track record as a wolf, so if you don't believe I would happily sacrifice one of my own to win the game, please ask anyone who's been in a pack with me. :smokin:


x'd with Legate and Ka

[Boromir88]

4 wolves 13 innocents. Man it's exciting but there's still A LOT of people :p

Ok Huey...what do we know? I believe 2nd game (?) New wolf. Likes to be active/involved. I did not sense any nerves in his responses when he was suspected. In hindsight, I'd say what got him in trouble is his non-committal attitude in forming suspicions.

We're, what, three and a bit hours from deadline? There's been a few other suspicions around, but I haven't seen anyone (Besides maybe you, but see below) strike more than one or two people as dodgy other than on general feel. The GLP has kind of drowned the rest out; I think the best evidence we have on everyone else might actually be their reactions to it all? I'll try and have a look later.

On Day 1 that was a reply he had towards Mac. Bolded part for my emphasis. It's like the names he's putting out there are to gauge and see who else follows and therefor he can have a case for having previously/initially started a suspicion on someone if they get lynched. (I hope that makes sense).

There's a lot of suspicion on Brinn in the last few posts (I see Rikae, Pitch, and Loslote), which seems to have come a bit out of nowhere. Did it build over the course of page 4? Ah, looks like it did, including G55's comment that Brinn 'seems to post without leaving any impression'. That tallies with what I'm getting, but I've not gotten any impression that she's up to something.

He establishes a reason for not wanting to join in a Brinn-wagon. Speaking of which, reminds me from Rikae's final post:

So, just putting this here because I think this could be important later. This Brinn-wagon everyone's talking about is two votes at this point, mine and Pitch's.

And the people who expressed concern about it are Huey, Lottie and Inzil, in that order (let me know if I missed someone).

His vote for G55 was to "avoid Brinn being last-minute wagonned." Interesting choice there. Darn I should have picked that up.

The tally right now is is 4 Brinn, 3 Pitch, 5 G55. To avoid Brinn being last-minute wagonned, my best shot is to go:

++GALADRIEL55

hS

"I'm voting G55 because I'm suspicious of her/think she's a wolf/..etc" = innocent.

"I'm voting G55 to avoid Brinn getting lynched" = wolf having trouble trying to create fake suspicions. So his reasoning isn't based on faked suspicions, but on what he KNOWS. Brinn is innocent.

Day 2 has been examined quite a bit. I don't want to go posting a bunch of quotes. In general this post of suspects. #429 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=723720&postcount=429)

A lot of trying to establish that he had previous suspicions against these people and therefor offering up some names to defend his vote when he makes it. Plus that post where I think he questioned Zil and Lottie's high post count and just for that moved Zil up to "probable wolf."

What can we tell by the wolf-pack's kills so far? As Rune commented after Rikae's death it looks like an unadventurous/boring pack. After Kit being killed, I'm agreeing with that assessment. A bolder and risk-taking pack may have let Kit live, risked having her stop their kill, but have the village wondering how the heck is the "revealed" Ranger still alive? There's still a lot of people here, and Ranger could not self-protect so a bolder pack might have tried to get us to lynch our ranger by keeping her alive.

That's not what we have though. I can imagine a bold pack with Mac going paranoid and his mates busing him. But can I see that ploy between Mac and Huey, no doesn't feel like that. We have a wolf pack that made 2 safe kills, which suggests they're trying to play it safe in the day and not do a bunch of crazy wolf-on-wolf.

I suppose now that I said this we're going to get wolves busing each other. :rolleyes:

I'm assuming this post has crossed with a lot.

[Inziladun]

I think that's what it was - a very unfortunate momentary reaction. Had she had time to process it, things might have been different. That's why I still kinda wished it had not been discussed, because especially after her survival, there may have been a chance to play it out to leave the Wolves uncertain. (Likely not, but anyway.)

It could have been left alone, but I still say it needed to be addressed. In my mind there was no possibility five wolves had all failed to notice it. I was playing with the idea that it had been done by a very bold Kitwolf, just to confuse. Highly unlikely, but not impossible. I was amazed that she was still with us the next Day.
The only thing I can figure is that they were thinking we might be so confused by Kit we might, for lack of a better option, lynch her to be on the safe side. If so, that's pretty brazen.

x/d with all since Legate

[Loslote]

Another list

Feeling good about:
Legate - He started and continuously encouraged the Huin bandwagon. I highly doubt a wolf would have been that vocal in support of lynching a packmate who, until Legate started the push, really wasn't in trouble.
Shasta - I still really like his reaction to the Kit thing. I don't think his vote yesterDay says much of anything, but I've liked what I've seen from him.

Feeling okay about:
Pitch - He voted very early in the Huin bandwagon, and at a time when his vote really swung the momentum. I don't think he would have done that if he was a wolf. Also, Greenie mentioned that Huin kept pushing attention onto the GLP, and that that probably means none of the GLP were wolves, which I think is a good point.
Eonwe - He cast the deciding vote yesterDay, and I think if he'd voted for Mac instead, no one would have been too suspicious, so I read that as fairly innocent.
Lalaith - She voted for Huin when the votes were extremely close, and she could've easily justified voting for Mac instead.
Brinn - Ditto Lalaith - she could have easily swung the vote in Mac's direction.
Mac - I don't think the wolves would have been okay with the only two bandwagons being for two wolves, so I'm thinking that Mac must have been innocent, or we would have seen a lot more pressure coming Zil's and my direction.
Greenie - Her vote was too early and didn't really give us much information, but I've liked her reasonableness and helpfulness.

Feeling nothing about:
Lhuna - Wasn't around when the Huinwagon got started, and I don't have enough to go on to have a strong feeling.
Kath - Ditto Lhuna, she wasn't there fore the Huin wagon and I don't have a strong feeling one way or the other.

Feeling dubious about:
Lommy - I wouldn't be at all shocked if Lommy turned out to be a wolf, but I wouldn't say she's my top suspect. She sort of soft supported the Huin wagon initially, then backed off when it actually took off, which could go either way.
Rune - I get a bad feeling from him, but that could be in part because he suspects me. I don't like that he essentially tried to start up a new bandwagon in the middle of the Huinwagon taking off, but that could again be an innocent who just didn't really suspect either candidate. Definitely keeping my eye on him.
THE Ka - Really didn't like her vote yesterDay, but again, I am definitely biased there. I also don't share the way she approaches suspicion and analyzing the game, which means I find her reasoning to be suspicious pretty much every time. Like Rune, I'm keeping an eye out, but she isn't on the top of my list.

Feeling bad about:
Sally - I haven't seen enough of her to get a good read, but the timing of her vote was pretty bad. I don't think that all three of Boro, Sally, and Zil are wolves, though, and I think Sally is the least suspicious of the three - but if Boro and/or Zil turn out to be innocent, Sally's going to jump way up my suspicion list.
Boro - It would have been bold to try to save Huin so late in the bandwagon, but if it had worked, wouldn't it have been worth it? The votes were very, very close. Legate also noticed that Boro soft suspected Huin earlier that Day, but didn't end up voting him, which I also find suspicious. I've found Boro to be suspicious for a while now, and I definitely consider him to be one of my top suspects.
Inzil - Between his vote placement and the Kit thing yesterDay, I really, really think Zil is likely to be a wolf. Huin suspected him a little, and tied him to me, which makes sense in terms of wolf-on-wolf plus implicating someone else. I also got a bad sense from his first post toDay - why bring up that there might have been a wolf in the Huin voters but not even mention that there almost definitely is one in the Mac voters? Easily my top suspect.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

It could have been left alone, but I still say it needed to be addressed. In my mind there was no possibility five wolves had all failed to notice it. I was playing with the idea that it had been done by a very bold Kitwolf, just to confuse. Highly unlikely, but not impossible. I was amazed that she was still with us the next Day.
The only thing I can figure is that they were thinking we might be so confused by Kit we might, for lack of a better option, lynch her to be on the safe side. If so, that's pretty brazen.

That's what I thought might have been the thing. (Or some other unlikely thing, such as the WWs not realising she can't self-protect or whatever.)

But most of all. Since you brought it up again, I can't but reiterate that this is behaviour I absolutely can't understand from you. Ok, let's say I wake up on Day 2 and find a Ranger alive when I thought they should have been killed. What do I do? I keep it to myself!!! Why should I even open my mouth about it, unless I am a Wolf or a Cobbler? If I mention it, I'm only adding fuel to the fire of the Wolves, who may exactly have orchestrated this to have her lynched, or may accidentally draw out the real Ranger (if this was a mistake and the person isn't a Ranger after all), etc.

Summa summarum: I can't see a single benefit of bringing it up, and I can see a lot of ways that it can harm someone.

EDIT: x-ed with Lottie. But now I'm really going to sleep.

[satansaloser2005]

What can we tell by the wolf-pack's kills so far? As Rune commented after Rikae's death it looks like an unadventurous/boring pack. After Kit being killed, I'm agreeing with that assessment. A bolder and risk-taking pack may have let Kit live, risked having her stop their kill, but have the village wondering how the heck is the "revealed" Ranger still alive? There's still a lot of people here, and Ranger could not self-protect so a bolder pack might have tried to get us to lynch our ranger by keeping her alive.

That's not what we have though. I can imagine a bold pack with Mac going paranoid and his mates busing him. But can I see that ploy between Mac and Huey, no doesn't feel like that. We have a wolf pack that made 2 safe kills, which suggests they're trying to play it safe in the day and not do a bunch of crazy wolf-on-wolf.

I suppose now that I said this we're going to get wolves busing each other. :rolleyes:

Wishful thinking, my prince. :Merisu:

Okay, but seriously, in a village this big with that many wolves, there could still be a Mac and Huey pack without significant wolf-on-wolf voting. At a certain point in a bandwagon, it behooves one to vote for your packmate more than not, so when both of them happened to come up at lynch candidates yesterDay, their pack would have had to vote for one of them in order not to look like they were trying to pull votes away. Likewise, a wolf could early vote a packmate as a throw away and not expect anything to come of it, and then that person is lynched that Day after a swing in suspicion.

In short, you can have wolf-on-wolf voting without the pack intentionally turning on each other.

~

And another thing! Why would the pack leave Kitanna alive at that point? If she's the ranger, free dead ranger. If she's not, she's still a good pick because people might assume she's the ranger and she would be less likely to get lynched.

Boring? Maybe. Effective? Definitely.


x'd since the post I quoted

[Inziladun]

But most of all. Since you brought it up again, I can't but reiterate that this is behaviour I absolutely can't understand from you. Ok, let's say I wake up on Day 2 and find a Ranger alive when I thought they should have been killed. What do I do? I keep it to myself!!! Why should I even open my mouth about it, unless I am a Wolf or a Cobbler? If I mention it, I'm only adding fuel to the fire of the Wolves, who may exactly have orchestrated this to have her lynched, or may accidentally draw out the real Ranger (if this was a mistake and the person isn't a Ranger after all), etc.

Summa summarum: I can't see a single benefit of bringing it up, and I can see a lot of ways that it can harm someone.

I honestly didn't see the harm. If Kit hadn't been the real Ranger, the bona fide would have known better than to counter-reveal. I just could not fathom it had been done innocently. That's all.

x/d with Sally

[Inziladun]

Inzil - Between his vote placement and the Kit thing yesterDay, I really, really think Zil is likely to be a wolf. Huin suspected him a little, and tied him to me, which makes sense in terms of wolf-on-wolf plus implicating someone else. I also got a bad sense from his first post toDay - why bring up that there might have been a wolf in the Huin voters but not even mention that there almost definitely is one in the Mac voters? Easily my top suspect.

How shocking. :rolleyes:

[Inziladun]

So who are the remaining Wolves?

Lottie? Very opportunistic, and the Huey vote is not a free pass. Like I said, with five of them, the Wolves could afford to be open to the idea of a pack sacrifice.

Mac? Rikae's "suspect".

Same for Pitch, who I also felt was rather opportunistic yesterDay in suspecting me, especially when Lottie jumped in. Strangely, I haven't yet got that vibe from him toDay.

Someone I haven't paid much attention to, like Ka or Lommy?

Seriously, folks. I know I'm a main topic of conversation, but don't get tunnel-vision.

[Brinniel]

But to briefly address the idea that I might have voted Mac to save a wolf Hui, I actually have a rather cutthroat track record as a wolf, so if you don't believe I would happily sacrifice one of my own to win the game, please ask anyone who's been in a pack with me.
You know, I thought about that - how Sallywolf wouldn't mind throwing a packmate under the bus - but now that you've brought it up, I'm wondering if maybe you are a wolf who panicked in the heat of the moment and toDay are hiding under the excuse that it's not your typical gameplay style.

I really don't like that Sally keeps bringing up the idea that both Mac and Hui are wolves. Sure, it's always possible, but I find it less likely. It feels like she is trying to use this as a distraction from the Mac voters, herself included.

And another thing! Why would the pack leave Kitanna alive at that point? If she's the ranger, free dead ranger. If she's not, she's still a good pick because people might assume she's the ranger and she would be less likely to get lynched.

Boring? Maybe. Effective? Definitely.

What, are you feeling miffed that people are calling your kills boring and safe? ;)

[satansaloser2005]

I've missed you too, Brinn. :)

[Loslote]

So who are the remaining Wolves?

Lottie? Very opportunistic, and the Huey vote is not a free pass. Like I said, with five of them, the Wolves could afford to be open to the idea of a pack sacrifice.

Mac? Rikae's "suspect".

Same for Pitch, who I also felt was rather opportunistic yesterDay in suspecting me, especially when Lottie jumped in. Strangely, I haven't yet got that vibe from him toDay.

Someone I haven't paid much attention to, like Ka or Lommy?

Seriously, folks. I know I'm a main topic of conversation, but don't get tunnel-vision.

Okay, so the one thing I'm picking up from this post: Zil is not expanding his suspect list based on yesterDay's votes. He's not taking anyone off his list - understandable - and he hasn't added anyone to his list - absolutely wild, considering how much information we got yesterDay. To me, this screams "wolf that knows his time is limited and doesn't want to give the village a single piece of information to link him to his packmates".

[Eönwë]

Wolf-on-wolf is certainly not out of the question. In fact, it's likely. With five of them, they could afford to sacrifice one if it made another one or two look rosier, especially since Urwen's departure gave them what amounts to a free kill.

I definitely think that wolf-on-wolf is a possibility, but this a first comment on the issue toDay seems suspicious to me. If Mac is innocent, then surely the majority of wolves are likely to be Mac voters. Of course, if Mac is also a wolf (which is very possible and something we shouldn't discount), this is more complicated, but only the wolves know whether he is.

Right. And may I say that Eönwë voting Hui because 'with the vote count as it is it's going to have to be this way', after he'd earlier listed Hui as 'fine for now', is as good a candidate for this as any.

Of course, this being focused on me may be part of why this rubs me the wrong way, but again, it does seem weird to focus on my vote (the one that actually got Hui quarantined) over all the others as your first post toDay.

Also, unless Mac is also a wolf, it doesn't really follow - I'd already mentioned my suspicion of Mac earlier that Day (though I did later say I was feeling
a bit better about him later), so I if I'd wanted a manufactured reason to go after him, there was already precedent.

I don't really see basically any reason for a wolf to vote Huin (except possibly something like the second vote if it looked like it wouldn't gain momentum? I need to have a better look how did it actually go) - I mean it would have been an absolutely unnecessary sacrifice from their pov. Even if Mac is a wolf too, he was surely the more expendable one out of the two with the amount of suspicion he'd garnered, while Huin had largely slipped unnoticed until the last minute bandwagon.

I actually think it's pretty likely that there is a wolf in the early Hui bandwaggon, but it gets decreasingly likely with each vote, especially once it was clear it was Hui vs. Mac (again, unless Mac is a wolf - I could see them being more likely to spread out their votes in that case).


Therefore I would look toDay very hard at everyone who voted Mac after Huin got the first vote. Those were the people who protected Huin and there's almost certain to be AT LEAST one wolf in there, possibly more.


Agreed. Especially those who voted Hui after Lottie's vote caught them up to Mac's.

However, I'm going to put this disclaimer now and say I will not be considering the possibility of wolf-on-wolf votes yesterday. I just think there's more suspicious votes to be focusing on that has wolves, than the votes of those who lynched a wolf.

This would be a good way of shielding packmates from scrutiny if Boro is a wolf, but I am sympathetic to his earlier comments about not being able to cover all ground/being stretched thin by the overwhelming number of people. On the other hand, both times it seems to cover the less-obvious wolves, which I do think is a little suspect.

I mostly agree with Lottie's post #598 (not quoted here because it's so long), except that I disagree that early Hui voters should be off the hook.

Then all of a sudden, in #552, he's 'open to a Huey vote', with no explanation. So, what has changed?
As I mentioned, I started to feel better about Mac, and as I'd previously not felt much about Hui, I went with my gut instinct.

Seriously? Logically, the only thing she could have been, other than the ranger, was the seer. Yesterday, I repeatedly asked people who doubted her innocence for justification and got none.
I don't think it was a 100% obvious thing, and I'm a little suspicious of those who act like it was - it's a lot easier to believe someone's slip when you know no-one is trying to lie to you. I know part of my reason for putting her in the maybe suspicious category was to not make it such a big thing like you and Zil did. The more attention that got drawn to it, the more obvious it seemed.

I did wonder about this yesterDay, and when that vote she led against Huey turned out so effective I really did think she really was the Seer.
This is a good point that I hadn't thought about. However, this is also pretty wolfy logic. I hadn't really gotten a good read on her yet, but this post is making me suspicious of Lalaith.

Eönwë -> Huinesoron 7

This one sealed the deal. As far as I understand, he was up to date and aware that he was condemning Huine. Pretty bold, when he could have as well sat back and seen what Shasta would do. Or voted Mac to save Huine. Generally a very innocent-seeming vote, but I'd like him to elaborate what he meant by the "it's going to have to be" here: "Ok, with the vote count looking as it is, it looks like it's going to have to be: ++Huinesoron"
Mostly just that since I'd just mentioned that I didn't really want to vote for Mac (because he was starting to seem more innocent), and previously I was open to Brinn or Hui, I was going to go with the latter.

[Boromir88]

Wishful thinking, my prince. :Merisu:

Okay, but seriously, in a village this big with that many wolves, there could still be a Mac and Huey pack without significant wolf-on-wolf voting. At a certain point in a bandwagon, it behooves one to vote for your packmate more than not, so when both of them happened to come up at lynch candidates yesterDay, their pack would have had to vote for one of them in order not to look like they were trying to pull votes away. Likewise, a wolf could early vote a packmate as a throw away and not expect anything to come of it, and then that person is lynched that Day after a swing in suspicion.

In short, you can have wolf-on-wolf voting without the pack intentionally turning on each other.
[/QUOTE]

All good points. I'll repeat my disclaimer that I'm not saying we must ignore the Huey voters yesterday, because there can't be wolf-on-wolf.

I feel my judgment has been kind of off so far and trying to be more pragmatic/methodical.

What do I know currently from the night kills and the lynches? The night kills have been safe. Effective? Yes. But no risks taken. The lynches for all their chaos have gone extremely favorably.

So what's more suspicious looking? The votes of people who lynched a now known wolf? The votes of people who voted for and unknown Mac and not HueyWolf? The votes of people who didn't vote for either?

Today, I'm not interested in trying to consider wolf-on-wolf strategy. There's still a ton of people, which means the Mac-votes and the "didn't vote for either" votes, are the more suspicious voters.

And another thing! Why would the pack leave Kitanna alive at that point? If she's the ranger, free dead ranger. If she's not, she's still a good pick because people might assume she's the ranger and she would be less likely to get lynched.

I saw a few people, I recall Steve, suspected her and brought up the possibility that Kit could have been acting as a bold-wolf. It would have been riskiest of risks, for the reasons you mentioned, but not killing her last night would start making us paranoid that she was a wolf, because why else would she be kept alive? Anyway, it's all moot now.

Kit. Ranger. Quarantined. Safe? Yes. Effective? Yes.

Edit: crossed with Steve.

[satansaloser2005]

I'm just saying, Boro my love, that discounting wolf-on-wolf tactics opens you up to missing a lot of possibilities.

[Boromir88]

This would be a good way of shielding packmates from scrutiny if Boro is a wolf, but I am sympathetic to his earlier comments about not being able to cover all ground/being stretched thin by the overwhelming number of people. On the other hand, both times it seems to cover the less-obvious wolves, which I do think is a little suspect.


Appreciate it. So far I've had this feeling that I'm on the most direct trajectory that leads to wolves, but my aim is slightly off-center. Like I'm hitting the target, but I'm not going to win any marksmanship competition.

[Macalaure]

Huinalysis
Mostly quoteless, for readability.

Day1, he's mostly out against Pitch and Lommy. He talks about a number of other people over the course of his posts, but it's all too lukewarm to draw conclusions from, I feel. He tries to dissuade people from the Brinn-wagon, votes Gala. He suspects there's a wolf among the Brinn suspecters.

He "defends" me in #93, #105, and #115, and he doesn't do anything like that with anybody else. But then in #115 and #154 he encourages others to make points against me, the sneak. :p It still feels like he's, all defense be damned, just waiting for someone to give him a reason to turn on me. I called him out on that and it was Greenie who came to his defense.

(Work update: this is my fourth post, but I've already caught myself checking incoming work emails to see if they might come from wolves. This game gets in your head...)As far as I can see, and I might be wrong, only Lhuna commented on this one. Interestingly, she doesn't really follow up on it. If you're a wolf and you see a fellow wolf slipping, you either ignore it and hope nobody else notices, or you throw them under the bus.

Starts Day2 with a bunch of analysis, but his main suspect remains Pitch, with Lommy second. Inzil and Loslote are mentioned as suspicious. Boro takes up some prominence in his posts. Greenie, Brinn, and Legate seem innocent to him. There's a mild sneaky defense of Eonwe in #366, but he backs off after Kitanna explains herself.

In #417 he still has Pitch up in his suspicion together with me. Loslote is dropped, Lommy and Inzil are still suspicious to him, but he's easing it. No mention of Boro anymore. Noteworthily, his suspicion of me includes a defense of Greenie. It's interesting how in #429 Lommy is his third suspect, yet she's apparently neutral to him. His suspicion towards Inzil is fairly half-hearted as well, though he raises it later on.

A lot of his points and suspicions feel like he's throwing things around to see what sticks, and if it doesn't, he just leaves it. Pitch, me, and to a lesser degree Lommy and Inzil are the only ones he's somewhat serious about.

In conclusion:
Fairly sure Pitch is innocent.
I'm tempted to feel better about Lommy and Inzil, but I feel a wolf-on-wolf suspicion is possible there, Lommy more so than Inzil, since he doesn't follow through at all.
Can't make my mind up about his half-hearted suspicion of Boro.
Brinn, Greenie, Eonwe, and Legate are implicated negatively, in certain degrees, in that order.

[Eönwë]

Probably fine

Legate of Amon Lanc - started the Hui-waggon, nothing pinging on my radar.

Loslote - Still seems fine to me.

Pitchwife - Despite his immediate suspicion of me toDay, I'm inclined to believe that he's actually innocent - most of what he says seems logical and to come out of genuine concern for the village being misled/tricked.

Kath - The wolfy vibes I got yesterDay don't seem to have amounted to much.

Lhunardawen - Still seems fine to me.

A Little Green - Still seems fine to me.




Temporarily off the hook (I haven't seen any suspicious behaviour since Day 1)

Brinniel

Macalaure




Concerned about

Shastanis Althreduin - I didn't like how he waited until his vote didn't matter.

THE Ka - Expanded the votes to 3 candidates after one was a wolf - definitely one to look at if Mac does turn out to be a wolf.

Thinlómien - My suspicions of her haven't subsided. Also, in her first post toDay, she completely discounts the idea of wolf-on-wolf.

Lalaith - I didn't like how she brought more attention to the fact that Kit was the Ranger yesterDay (with her presumption that it was obviously true) and her logic toDay seems wolvish (as noted earlier)

Rune Son of Bjarne - Just a feeling at the moment; I need to reread his posts.




Probably evil

Inziladun - His pushing Kit out, late Mac vote, and immediate focus on wolf-on-wolf have just added to me thinking he's suspicious. Plus he's a late Mac voter.

Boromir88 - Two days in a row, he's shaped his discussion in a way I find suspicious. He's also a late Mac voter.

Satansaloser2005 - Ever since she appeared near the end of yesterDay, she's exuded extremely strong evil vibes and I have yet to figure out way. But it should be noted that she's also a late Mac voter.


edit: x-ed since my last post.

[Macalaure]

More like I was hoping for the best outcome regardless of the consequences I knew it would have for me. Dun and I are saying the same thing, but I'm being more open about the way it looks. You're being overly paranoid again, big bad Mac.
"Oh, no! That Mac made a point against me. He's so paranoid!":p

[Eönwë]

Also, I realise that I suspected Zil based on his first post toDay because he immediately suggested wolf-on-wolf and Lommy on her first post toDay because she immediately focused on the opposite.

But I think immediately focusing on Hui-voters in the first post of the Day when there are definitely guilty Mac-voters seems like misdirection. On the other hand, Lommy saying that it's basically impossible makes me uneasy because it does seem like an option, just not the most obvious one.

edit: x-ed with Mac

[Eönwë]

Anyway, I'll be gone for a while (and it looks like I might need to vote before the QT vote comes through), so:

Keen to vote
Zil
Boro
Sally

Don't need much persuading to vote:
Lommy
Lalaith


Could vote
THE Ka
Rune


Might need some persuading, but could vote in a pinch
Shasta (would like to see him explain himself first)
Mac (We would probably learn a lot, and I'm not sure of his innocence - I just don't suspect him as much as the others on this list)

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Had my vote mattered, I do think I probably would have voted for Huin over Mac simply because I preferred the company - I had vastly more reads on the Huin voters, for good and ill, over the Mac voters.

In response to Eonwe - you did basically the same thing, bruh. You and I were the last to vote. In my case, I was watching the votes basically be a perfect tie and thinking "well these reactions are gonna be interesting." I didn't have a good enough read on either Huin or Mac to warrant specifically saving one or the other, and I didn't have an evil-enough read to warrant condemning one or the other, so I was concentrating more on the voters than the votees.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Anyway, I'll be gone for a while (and it looks like I might need to vote before the QT vote comes through), so:

Keen to vote
Zil
Boro
Sally

Don't need much persuading to vote:
Lommy
Lalaith


Could vote
THE Ka
Rune


Might need some persuading, but could vote in a pinch
Shasta (would like to see him explain himself first)
Mac (We would probably learn a lot, and I'm not sure of his innocence - I just don't suspect him as much as the others on this list)

Boro was the one decent good read I had of the Mac voters.

[Lhunardawen]

band·​wag·​on | \ ˈband-ˌwa-gən \

1 : a usually ornate and high wagon for a band of musicians especially in a circus parade
2 : a popular party, faction, or cause that attracts growing support —often used in such phrases as jump on the bandwagon
3 : a current or fashionable trend

Shamelessly copy-pasted from The Merriam Webster dictionary, emphasis mine.

I made that comment after seeing a few posts implying that the first vote starts a bandwagon. Taken in isolation, one vote has no support, let alone a growing support. More often than not, unless they're very flimsily reasoned, we don't analyse first votes as throw-aways or wolf-on-wolf (but then again, why not, but that's an altogether different topic). I've always been of the belief that a bandwagon starts the moment another person jumps on it. We start really analysing votes the moment they start gaining momentum towards a successful lynch.

Brinn, however, made a good point here:
Bandwagons can start when players start discussing suspicion and their intention to vote for someone. A first vote could piggyback on that.
Thank you, I stand corrected.

Does that satisfy you, Lommy?

I read this as completely unrelated to Lommy and found it odd that she jumped on it.
That was exactly my intent; they were two unrelated lines of thought. I probably should have added a couple extra spaces in between. :rolleyes:

(On a random note, why do we abbreviate Lommy and Greenie? Why not Lommie and Greeny or any other permutations thereof? :D)


(Work update: this is my fourth post, but I've already caught myself checking incoming work emails to see if they might come from wolves. This game gets in your head...)
As far as I can see, and I might be wrong, only Lhuna commented on this one. Interestingly, she doesn't really follow up on it. If you're a wolf and you see a fellow wolf slipping, you either ignore it and hope nobody else notices, or you throw them under the bus. I meant it as banter, but imagine my surprise when he did turn out to be a wolf! Wow what a carelessly dropped statement that was.


With 5 wolves I'm not discounting a wolf on wolf even after the Huitrain started to gain serious steam (that did seem to come off left field didn't it?). But based on the voting alone I'm inclined to think Leggie innocent, it doesn't seem reasonable for a wolf to offer his packmate up to be sacrificed when he wasn't in real danger of getting lynched, or to try to convince others to vote for him.

Also, I'm not sure why Shasta appears innocent for holding his vote. It looked incredibly fishy to me, but I probably need a deeper reading for context.

I'll do more in-depth analyses once I'm done with work.

[THE Ka]

Now bring on the accusations, because they might be fair. Wrong, but fair.

Seriously, folks. I know I'm a main topic of conversation, but don't get tunnel-vision.

Pushing yourself forward as a reminder smells awfully similar to what happened with Mac yesterDay. Are we going to see a rehashed plot toDay?

[Shastanis Althreduin]

band·​wag·​on | \ ˈband-ˌwa-gən \

1 : a usually ornate and high wagon for a band of musicians especially in a circus parade
2 : a popular party, faction, or cause that attracts growing support —often used in such phrases as jump on the bandwagon
3 : a current or fashionable trend

Shamelessly copy-pasted from The Merriam Webster dictionary, emphasis mine.

I made that comment after seeing a few posts implying that the first vote starts a bandwagon. Taken in isolation, one vote has no support, let alone a growing support. More often than not, unless they're very flimsily reasoned, we don't analyse first votes as throw-aways or wolf-on-wolf (but then again, why not, but that's an altogether different topic). I've always been of the belief that a bandwagon starts the moment another person jumps on it. We start really analysing votes the moment they start gaining momentum towards a successful lynch.

Brinn, however, made a good point here:

Thank you, I stand corrected.

Does that satisfy you, Lommy?


That was exactly my intent; they were two unrelated lines of thought. I probably should have added a couple extra spaces in between. :rolleyes:

(On a random note, why do we abbreviate Lommy and Greenie? Why not Lommie and Greeny or any other permutations thereof? :D)


I meant it as banter, but imagine my surprise when he did turn out to be a wolf! Wow what a carelessly dropped statement that was.


With 5 wolves I'm not discounting a wolf on wolf even after the Huitrain started to gain serious steam (that did seem to come off left field didn't it?). But based on the voting alone I'm inclined to think Leggie innocent, it doesn't seem reasonable for a wolf to offer his packmate up to be sacrificed when he wasn't in real danger of getting lynched, or to try to convince others to vote for him.

Also, I'm not sure why Shasta appears innocent for holding his vote. It looked incredibly fishy to me, but I probably need a deeper reading for context.

I'll do more in-depth analyses once I'm done with work.

Shrug. I'm the only person I know I'm innocent. If it looks like I'm being offered the hammer, I'm gonna take the hammer.

[Brinniel]

I've missed you too, Brinn.
:D

I'm going to take a look at those falling under my radar. It's already late, so I don't know if I'll get to everyone tonight, or heck even toDay...it's hard to keep up with all the posts. I took a look at the last couple games I played and we ended on Day 6-7 at around 20 pages. It's only Day 3 and we're already at page 17! :eek: Is this just a really talkative group or pandemic boredom?

Okay, so first..

The Ka from yesterDay:

In post#426, she wonders why Mac wants attention on him and who would benefit.

Later she says...


As I said in a previous post, it’s more curious to me why Mac wants to be associated with suspicion, why he keeps repeating his tale to us, etc. The problem I have is trying to figure out who benefits from Mac not only being suspicious, but later possibly being voted toDay into a (and I guess I’ll say it…) Macwagon. Wolves could easily hide in a pushed vote for Mac since he’s becoming a wonderful distraction along with Zil’s continued interest in Kit.
I need to go back for earlier toDay and see who could be nudging him along.

In her next post, she votes Lottie for softly pushing the idea of lynching Mac. So it seems her reasoning is similar to reasons I backed down on my initial suspicions in Day 1 on the LGP front, which doesn't say anything to me either way. But then the last paragraph of her vote post says:
I'm not voting for Mac, because it's too obvious and appears as if to me at least, he's being subtly coached to take a fall. If he's a wolf doing it as others have mentioned, then it's because it's likely over a consensus with fellow pack mates and scripted. If he's innocent, then pretty much the same for the wolves as he's a convenient 'suspicion' from Rikae the previous Day that they know player's would have itching in the back of their minds. I'm not interested in being corralled into a bandwagon, even by the fairest words.
In short, I'm sticking to my earlier questions on identifying who is pushing for Mac, consistently, subtly at times, and buried here and there. I just don't see a lot of information to be revealed about others from just picking Mac, as he is his most and loudest trumpeter.
The first sentence I find a bit concerning because it seems to imply she thinks him more likely a wolf than not by saying it's too obvious he's being subtly coached to take the fall. But even if he were being coached by packmates, isn't better to lynch someone you think is more likely a wolf than not?

Today she further explained her vote:
Still stand by what I said yesterday of pushing Mac right on through, it was just orchestrated too easily and I’d rather throw bumps in the road to examine who protests the most. Will admit that once I had a chance to re-read previous posts, Legate's suspicions on Lottie did stand out to me when I was looking at who could possibly gain the most on the Mac distraction. By the time I posted I knew it was going to be swamped by Mac votes and was preparing for foot stomping that I was being a spoil-sport, however, I didn't see Rune's vote until after since I was writing my vote in a separate window and reading posts backwards. I just assumed afterwards, he read the same as I.
Okay, I don't find her vote reasoning necessarily suspicious. As for timing - her posts are lengthy so I'm not sure how aware she was that Hui was being brought to the table.

On that note, it doesn't appear that Hui and Ka at any point interacted or mentioned each other. Could be nothing, or could be two wolves staying clear of each other.

In summary, I don't think I'm any better informed about The Ka. She could go either way.

[Brinniel]

Rune on Day 2:

Complains about long posts and chastises the Kit/Ranger discussion.

Mentions that Ka quoted him on something he didn't say in post#426. Was it this?
*raises on eyebrow* I don't love how he continually brings up himself as mewolf and crafts a conspiracy theory around wolves setting him up.
Seems likely to be a misquote. Don't know who originally said it, but she just comments on Mac from that quote rather than directly responding to the person who said it.

In post #498, he doesn't do lists, but does one. :p He categorizes:
Neutral:Lommy, Pitch, Inzil, Ka
Good: Legate, Lhuna, Shasta
Possibly Sinister: Lottie, Brinn, Eonwe
No read on the others.

For Lottie (whom he later voted) he says
I really get a bad vibe from Loslote, but to be honest 50% of her posts seem outright reasonable. The reason she still makes this list is that I did not care for her post 114 where she tried to keep the Legate-Pitch day 1 spat going, without commiting. In post 294 she seems to commit to an agenda of getting a Brinn voter lynched, which i did not care for.
Took a look at the two posts he referenced - the first is post of Lottie sharing concerns of the LGP group. The second he's referring to:
I am a little bit side-eyeing the late (but before the "reveal") Brinn voters. If you were a wolf, you'd probably rather keep the loud, distracting player who is haring after someone not in your pack than keep the quieter player who isn't going to help you hide as much. Specifically, Mac, Legate, and Rune.
Which was followed with short analyses of the three. I don't see how "a little bit of side-eyeing" can be interpreted as "committing to an agenda of getting a Brinn voter lynched." To me, Rune is overreacting, maybe because he's on that list?

He then proceeds to vote Lottie because he's going with "gut feeling (and the reasons on the list of doom)."

ToDay he criticized Lottie for how she categorized early and late voters. Fair to be critical, but his tone was a bit jumpy.

Like Ka, I did not spot any interactions with him and Hui (unless I'm missing something).

I find Rune's suspicions of Lottie to be flimsy partly because of his overreaction to that post and partly because in his description for her he finds her posts 50% reasonable, which is a bit noncommittal. I also see his vote as a bit of a throwaway; sure it was early enough to go any way, but at that time a Lottie lynch did not seem very likely. I am not as suspicious of Rune as I am of others, but I am wary of him.

---

I'd like to also take a gander at Lhuna and possibly Kath who are also floating under my radar, but that may need to wait until morning as I am tired.

[A Little Green]

That’s not the best of signs to lose a Ranger in the earlier half of the game. On the flip side, I still wonder why Kit was rather honest in the last wee moments of Day 1 to G55’s bluff (unless just hoping that it could be left as a clue to others and hopefully never mentioned again? Yet it does the opposite and then is brought up half way through Day 2 until attempted to be hushed).
I find this comment from THE Ka a bit off, given that she seconded Inzil calling Kit’s slip “curious” and so was instrumental in bringing it up in the first place; as long as it was only Inzil and no one else reacting to what he said, there was still hope it could be left alone. THE Ka didn’t take part in the later actual discussion about this with Kit herself, and was mostly ignored by people who called the whole thing suspicious. Her bringing it up now as something unrelated to herself – something that was “brought up half way through Day 2” – rubs me the wrong way. As I said before, though, if Inzil is a wolf I doubt Ka is, as two wolves seconding each other on poking at a potential Gifted would be brazen to the point of suicidal.

Of course it's possible that both Mac and Huin were wolves, but I would find it surprising if the wolves were completely unable to produce a single other viable bandwagon to counter two bandwagons on wolves. The Zil bandwagon, for example, could have been encouraged and pushed harder without too much suspicion on the people pushing it. The bandwagon on me probably could've been pushed harder - there were more people interested in voting me, though Legate and Lommy at least voted early. If both Mac and Huin were wolves, I would've expected to see more pressure in those directions, which we just didn't really see.
This is actually a very good point. Unless of course the wolf pack really agreed with Mac's extremely pessimistic view on his chances to survive the Day and decided to bandwagon on him to make themselves look better "when" he'd die. (I'm sorry but I would find this terribly funny. )
I think this makes sense, actually – I mean Lottie’s theory, not necessarily Lommy’s conspiracy theory (though I agree it would be hilarious).

It's a given that the votes are scrutinized: that's the best evidence we have.
At that time, I was still fixed on the Rikae-as-possible-Seer idea, and Mac was the only one of their suspects I thought had a shot at being lynched.
Huey was not really on my radar, mainly because it seemed every time I tried to scan one of his posts my brain muttered "what is he talking about?"
I was highly tempted to vote him after I saw Kit, because I was 99% sure she wasn't evil. Then Pitch and Lottie voted for him and I was not going to throw in with people who had been talking about lynching me. Petty, yes. Sorry.
Not sure I buy this. The Mac suspicion and wanting to lynch him is fair enough, but that last bit? First off, I’m confused by Inzil’s whole thing with Kit and why he brought her up in the first place if he was “99% sure she wasn’t evil”. Or did he only come to this conclusion after she had basically confessed to giftedness? I feel like there was already something about this somewhere but my brain is getting muddled. Second eyebrow-raise though – even if he concluded Kit was innocent, the Ranger doesn’t know anything more than anyone else so again, the only thing you’ll know from following her vote is that she won’t deliberately try to lead you astray. If he didn’t supect Huin, considering voting for him because Kit did so too doesn’t really make sense.

That said, Lalaith said basically the same thing, except she actually did go ahead and vote for Huin. I don’t necessarily agree with the argument, but as I said before, voting for a fellow wolf while saying you don’t really want to would be a strange move for a wolf – especially if (as in Lal’s case) you had another option open too.

I prefer LPG, which was the abbreviation for "Landwirtschaftliche Produktionsgenossenschaft" in the GDR.
Gesundheit.

And yeah, I should perhaps be happy for knowing people sharing the idea, but Greenie's happy jump on the idea to vote Brinn seems worrisome to me.
Greenie->Mac 2. Again, see Lommy. Note: she considered Brinniel equally much but opted for Mac (Greenie, why did you choose Mac over Brinn in the end?)
To answer the first point – I’m not sure if it counts as a “happy jump” on Brinn given that pretty much all I’d done the entire day was waver between Mac and Brinn. :rolleyes: As for the second – that’s a fair question. In short, I could have gone either way but in the end thought the argument against Mac was stronger. Long version? I could see a possible scenario where innocent Brinn gets suspected over some unfortunate wordings early on, goes increasingly on the defensive, and then gets increasingly suspected for ensuing jumpiness; whereas I couldn’t think of a scenario where innocent Mac gets this level of paranoid about being implicated by a Night kill, or comes up with complicated theories about Cobbler55 thinking him a possible wolf dreamed by a Seer Rikae and then discusses this as connected to a theory that the wolves thought Rikae’s death implicates him and therefore he is being framed. Like, even if the wolves had picked up on G55’s supposed pegging of Mac as a Seer-dreamed wolf, surely they would have ignored this (or at least, not taken it as a sign of Rikae’s possible seerishness) unless Mac was one of them. So both parts separately, paranoid but still possibly fine. But the combination, and the fact that he very much presented them as connected parts of the same theory? I really, really don’t see how an innocent Mac would think this way.

Oh and well, Evil side has control of the QT vote today as well. It will be interesting to see what vote they give us. Since the vote comes 2 hours before our own DL, with how our DL's go. I'm wondering if we try the "proposed vote" again today...like someone said, "fake vote" just sounds inaccurate. Then see what the evil QT vote gives us.
Yeah, let's keep that in mind. But actually, especially with the Evil QT, I am again (just like yesterDay with the Cobbler there) against any such vote. Because what use is it now? Only to tell the Evil QT what we are likely to do. Nopes. WWs would use it to signal the QT. Nopes. Anyone who does so goes into my suspect book. (Starting from you right now, *ping*(TM).)
I have to agree with Legate here – I don’t get how an evil-majority QT means we should try pre-voting again. Boro, can you explain?

Also, I realise that I suspected Zil based on his first post toDay because he immediately suggested wolf-on-wolf and Lommy on her first post toDay because she immediately focused on the opposite.

But I think immediately focusing on Hui-voters in the first post of the Day when there are definitely guilty Mac-voters seems like misdirection. On the other hand, Lommy saying that it's basically impossible makes me uneasy because it does seem like an option, just not the most obvious one.
This is a fair point. And while we’re on the subject of fishy reactions to the Huin lynch -

Inzil's first comment might just be an innocent "oh boy, maybe I voted for the wrong person", but Sally's is chock-full of wolfish vote-self-awareness.
I kind of agree with Mac here (!!). I don’t like Sally’s repeated assertions (both last thing yesterDay and first thing toDay) that this makes her look bad. She then says that as a wolf she tends to bus her packmates so she wouldn’t have tried to save Huin if she was his packmate, but as was pointed out, this could just as well be Sally trying to cover her tracks with “but I never do that as a wolf!”

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

I should make some summary or something because I keep reading people and thinking half of everything people say looks fishy, which does not bode well.

Seriously, folks. I know I'm a main topic of conversation, but don't get tunnel-vision.
I wasn't really worried about Zil until he said this.

You know, I thought about that - how Sallywolf wouldn't mind throwing a packmate under the bus - but now that you've brought it up, I'm wondering if maybe you are a wolf who panicked in the heat of the moment and toDay are hiding under the excuse that it's not your typical gameplay style.

I really don't like that Sally keeps bringing up the idea that both Mac and Hui are wolves. Sure, it's always possible, but I find it less likely. It feels like she is trying to use this as a distraction from the Mac voters, herself included.


What, are you feeling miffed that people are calling your kills boring and safe? ;)
And this to keep in mind if either of Brinn or Sally turns out to be a Wolf. It almost sounds like a good Wolf-on-Wolf banter to me. (Warning: I'm gonna mention Wolf-on-Wolf few times here and I'm aware it isn't helpful at the moment. This whole post is sort of "for referrence".)

I somehow don't know at all what to do with Eönwë's way of posting, he seems as if his train of thought is "removed" from many of the trajectories the "mainstream debate" takes. Nothing against that. Regardless however some points he makes make me wary, but there is a lot of innocentish stuff too. He has just been drawing my eye recently.


Shastanis Althreduin - I didn't like how he waited until his vote didn't matter.

To file: this is so hypocritical and the following is so "casual" that it may be a soft Wolf-on-Wolf.
In response to Eonwe - you did basically the same thing, bruh. You and I were the last to vote. In my case, I was watching the votes basically be a perfect tie and thinking "well these reactions are gonna be interesting." I didn't have a good enough read on either Huin or Mac to warrant specifically saving one or the other, and I didn't have an evil-enough read to warrant condemning one or the other, so I was concentrating more on the voters than the votees.

I am uneasy with Lhuna's post about bandwagons and stuff, also didn't originally make anything out of her reaction to Hui's "wolf e-mails"; this however sounds a bit like it could be faked:

I meant it as banter, but imagine my surprise when he did turn out to be a wolf! Wow what a carelessly dropped statement that was.


But I should probably focus on something where I am a bit more certain. These are sort of shouts in the dark.

Just overall: it's very nice how some people say "there are WWs unlikely to be in first half of Huiwagon" (Lottie) or equally dogmatically "there are WWs likely to be in the first half of Huiwagon" (Eönwë) or "there has to be a Wolf among Huiwagon" (Lommy) - point is, there doesn't have to be anything anywhere, still, in this big village.

I am wondering about Brinn and the first Day Brinnwagon and everything related to it. It seems clear that Hui stayed off it, and his generic behaviour is sort of avoidant (not naming too many suspects, being friendly where he could, etc.). Can it point to some pattern in his behaviour in relation to his voting strategy? Meaning, are those he voted likely to be innocent? (We know G55 was "innocent", in the sense, she was a non-Wolf.) And could Brinn be his packmate?

Knowing myself, I am unlikely to make a conclusive statement after I re-read his posts once again, but I will try. (I promise not to post a novel on it though, because it's been here many times already. I find it good however that everyone is trying to do their own maths.)

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

The tally right now is is 4 Brinn, 3 Pitch, 5 G55. To avoid Brinn being last-minute wagonned, my best shot is to go:

I have a very, very urgent feeling that if I have ever seen a Wolf saving a fellow Wolf from a bandwagon, this might just be it. (Would it be so blatant? But in this big village, I guess every Day counts!)What you're seeing is my word use breaking down because I spent ten mi utes trying to get this post typed on my phone and then realised the time. /After/ repeatedly updating the tallies at the end; it was 3/3/4 when I started!

I'm really suspicious of the let's lynch Brinn movement; I think there's a wolf deep inside it. As I said a few posts back, I'd rather have gone Pitch, but voted G55 as far more likely than Brinn.

hS
Just stumbled upon this, among other things. I'm wondering whether I should just return to my early hunch and scrutinise Brinn further. (Her recent posts have been better, but I mean, she's a good Wolf player, and often if she manages to get suspected early and manages to get off the hook, she's able to maintain her presence for long.) But that would also mean that the WWs would have been really hard pressed in this village - having very strong bandwagons against one both Days! But of course it's possible.

As a sidenote, "I think there's a wolf deep inside it" also sounds like it could be the case of a Wolf randomly telling the truth. (If we took it literally, it would have to be Pitch, Ka or Rune, who had participated in the Brinnwagon before Hui said this. But it could also have been just a second-hand way to potentially use against Rikae - the one who started the Brinnwagon and is now known innocent - later, if it was needed.)

[Inziladun]

Okay, so the one thing I'm picking up from this post: Zil is not expanding his suspect list based on yesterDay's votes. He's not taking anyone off his list - understandable - and he hasn't added anyone to his list - absolutely wild, considering how much information we got yesterDay. To me, this screams "wolf that knows his time is limited and doesn't want to give the village a single piece of information to link him to his packmates".

Or, an innocent who honestly is trying to link everything together, not just the most recent votes.

[Inziladun]

Pushing yourself forward as a reminder smells awfully similar to what happened with Mac yesterDay. Are we going to see a rehashed plot toDay?

If it ends with me not getting lynched, sure.

[Thinlómien]

Seriously, folks. I know I'm a main topic of conversation, but don't get tunnel-vision. Can I start giving paranoid wolf awards? :p YesterDay Mac and Brinn for thinking they're being framed by the Rikae kill, toDay Sally and Inzil being convinced they're done for. None of that looks very innocent to me.

Sally looks very furry to me right now. She did before, her vote was the worst, and her apologetic attitude toDay is not helping her cause at all. Fishy fishy lupine fish.

Eönwë - I did consider it very likely that there isn't much wolf-on-wolf in the Huinewagon, but I wasn't as adamant about it as you claim. And if you read my subsequent post where I analysed the votes, I actually do point out which Huine votes look the most wolf-on-wolf to me (Brinn and especially Lalaith). That being said, I absolutely stand with my assesment that when we have evidence of people having voted in way that prevents a wolf lynch (again, slightly dependent on Mac's role though), I don't think we should focus on those who did the opposite. I'm not for giving the Huine voters a pass idefinitely, but I am giving them a pass for toDay. And those whose vote was particularly unwolfily placed, probably for a few more Days than that. I would advise you to do the same. There are a lot of people in this village and to a degree, you've got to pick who you focus on.

Does that satisfy you, Lommy?Hm. I guess. It was still a rather weird comment without a context.

(Work update: this is my fourth post, but I've already caught myself checking incoming work emails to see if they might come from wolves. This game gets in your head...)
As far as I can see, and I might be wrong, only Lhuna commented on this one. Interestingly, she doesn't really follow up on it. If you're a wolf and you see a fellow wolf slipping, you either ignore it and hope nobody else notices, or you throw them under the bus.
I meant it as banter, but imagine my surprise when he did turn out to be a wolf! Wow what a carelessly dropped statement that was.Yeah, I noticed this when Lhuna pointed it out but it was so glaring that I actually ignored it?! Given that, like I've said, I had hard time understanding where Hui was ever coming from, I gave them the benefit of doubt and interpreted it as them talking about having email subsrcibed to the ww thread. But looks like the simpler explanation was true and I should have certainly remembered this slip because had Hui's meaning been innocent, I can't see why they wouldn't have replied to Lhuna and clarified it. But yes, quite telling that no one else than Lhuna caught onto or commented on this. (I'm not sure it automatically makes Lhuna innocent though? If the slipup seemed obvious to wolf!Lhuna, wouldn't she hurry to point it out because she might feel it's fishy not to. Then maybe she dropped it because everybody else ignored it and she thought maybe she overreacted and her packmate didn't condemn themselves after all?)

Just overall: it's very nice how some people say "there are WWs unlikely to be in first half of Huiwagon" (Lottie) or equally dogmatically "there are WWs likely to be in the first half of Huiwagon" (Eönwë) or "there has to be a Wolf among Huiwagon" (Lommy) - point is, there doesn't have to be anything anywhere, still, in this big village.I didn't say that! My statement of this type was "there has to be a wolf among the people who vote Mac after Hui became a serious lynch candidate" and I do stand behind that. (I mean of course nothing is certain, but I'm like 99% certain and that's enough for me.)


xed with 2 Zils

[Thinlómien]

Pushing yourself forward as a reminder smells awfully similar to what happened with Mac yesterDay. Are we going to see a rehashed plot toDay?If it ends with me not getting lynched, sure.:confused::confused:

Both of you please explain what you're referring to (ie what aspect of "what happened with Mac yesterDay" are you referring to - quite a lot happened with Mac yesterday. :p)

[Lalaith]

So, I pondered in the night that one thing this game has highlighted, is that both innocents and wolves can slip up.
Kit's late-night blurt at G55's false ranger reveal, and then (which most of us failed to spot) Huey's wolf email slip...

I've been thinking Emails With Wolves sounds like quite a low-key sequel to Dances with Wolves...:smokin:

Brinn:

Least suspicious votes of the Hui voters are Legate and Pitchwife. They were earlier and really got the ball rolling. Eonwe or Lalaith could possibly be wolf-on-wolf votes if they thought he was not worth saving. I'm somewhere in between the two on Lottie.

Your own vote for Hui cross-posted, I think, with mine. If Eonwe and I (and possibly Lottie) are slightly suspicious Hui voters in your mind, what about your vote?

[Inziladun]

Ok, let's say I wake up on Day 2 and find a Ranger alive when I thought they should have been killed. What do I do? I keep it to myself!!! Why should I even open my mouth about it, unless I am a Wolf or a Cobbler? If I mention it, I'm only adding fuel to the fire of the Wolves, who may exactly have orchestrated this to have her lynched, or may accidentally draw out the real Ranger (if this was a mistake and the person isn't a Ranger after all), etc.

Summa summarum: I can't see a single benefit of bringing it up, and I can see a lot of ways that it can harm someone.

I feel for this poor beaten horse, but one last thing. On the last summa, ask what benefit a wolfly me would get from putting Kit on the spot? I would know she wasn't a wolf. She would probably be the Ranger or Seer. Why not sit back and wait for someone else to bring it up, and get suspected for it (worked splendidly).

Shrug. I'm the only person I know I'm innocent. If it looks like I'm being offered the hammer, I'm gonna take the hammer.

Whatever Shasta may be, I have to admire his style.

[Lalaith]

Another thing: I have, like a lot of people, been thinking about wolf-on-wolf voting, and with two specific questions in mind:
1. Does Legate's first vote for Hui mean that I was wrong to suspect him yesterDay?
2. Does Hui's 3rd vote for Mac point to his (Mac's) innocence?

Another thing then crossed my mind. Would the fact that a dead wolf ensures that the baddie vote now dominates the QT, make wolves less reluctant to lynch each other? After all, this means the packmate can continue to be useful and push their agenda elsewhere...

[Inziladun]

Not sure I buy this. The Mac suspicion and wanting to lynch him is fair enough, but that last bit? First off, I’m confused by Inzil’s whole thing with Kit and why he brought her up in the first place if he was “99% sure she wasn’t evil”. Or did he only come to this conclusion after she had basically confessed to giftedness? I feel like there was already something about this somewhere but my brain is getting muddled. Second eyebrow-raise though – even if he concluded Kit was innocent, the Ranger doesn’t know anything more than anyone else so again, the only thing you’ll know from following her vote is that she won’t deliberately try to lead you astray. If he didn’t supect Huin, considering voting for him because Kit did so too doesn’t really make sense.

Kit's explanation seemed genuine enough, and her posts after that didn't feel evil. My thought was that following her, I would at least be less likely to vote for a known innocent, as opposed to being led by wolves.

Both of you please explain what you're referring to (ie what aspect of "what happened with Mac yesterDay" are you referring to - quite a lot happened with Mac yesterday. :p)

From my view, just that he got a lot of votes but someone else got lynched.

[Inziladun]

Another thing: I have, like a lot of people, been thinking about wolf-on-wolf voting, and with two specific questions in mind:
1. Does Legate's first vote for Hui mean that I was wrong to suspect him yesterDay?
2. Does Hui's 3rd vote for Mac point to his (Mac's) innocence?

Another thing then crossed my mind. Would the fact that a dead wolf ensures that the baddie vote now dominates the QT, make wolves less reluctant to lynch each other? After all, this means the packmate can continue to be useful and push their agenda elsewhere...

1. I think Legate is pretty innocent-looking.
2. Not necessarily. I still say with five wolves they could afford to be a bit reckless voting one another.

As far as the QT goes, as long as we here know their vote is decided by wolves, we won't put any confidence in it. And really, having to be in well before our DL reduces the weight it might otherwise carry.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Another thing then crossed my mind. Would the fact that a dead wolf ensures that the baddie vote now dominates the QT, make wolves less reluctant to lynch each other? After all, this means the packmate can continue to be useful and push their agenda elsewhere...

A good point to consider. Of course the Wolves would not go straightaway "let's get one of ourselves lynched so we can continue to get one extra vote via the QT" - that would be absolutely useless strategy as one live Wolf gives as much of a vote as an entire dead QT. But they might still consider it a "consolation prize".

But let's make sure we differentiate properly here, as it's about small nuances: i.e. it is still obviously preferrable for the WWs not to get any of them lynched, ever, at all. They may just be a bit less reluctant to Wolf-on-Wolf vote than they would otherwise be. But nothing more, nothing less. It definitely does not mean that they would be eager to do so.

[A Little Green]

Fishy fishy lupine fish.Can we please start calling all suspicious people this? <333
Yeah, I noticed this when Lhuna pointed it out but it was so glaring that I actually ignored it?! Given that, like I've said, I had hard time understanding where Hui was ever coming from, I gave them the benefit of doubt and interpreted it as them talking about having email subsrcibed to the ww thread. But looks like the simpler explanation was true and I should have certainly remembered this slip because had Hui's meaning been innocent, I can't see why they wouldn't have replied to Lhuna and clarified it. But yes, quite telling that no one else than Lhuna caught onto or commented on this. (I'm not sure it automatically makes Lhuna innocent though? If the slipup seemed obvious to wolf!Lhuna, wouldn't she hurry to point it out because she might feel it's fishy not to. Then maybe she dropped it because everybody else ignored it and she thought maybe she overreacted and her packmate didn't condemn themselves after all?)
Hm. I find Lhuna somewhat concerning so this is a definite possibility - in a way, a fellow wolf would be more sensitive to noticing wolf slips or thinking them obviously noticeable to everyone given that she'd know it was a slip.

1. Does Legate's first vote for Hui mean that I was wrong to suspect him yesterDay?
2. Does Hui's 3rd vote for Mac point to his (Mac's) innocence?

Another thing then crossed my mind. Would the fact that a dead wolf ensures that the baddie vote now dominates the QT, make wolves less reluctant to lynch each other? After all, this means the packmate can continue to be useful and push their agenda elsewhere...I'd say -

1) Legate being first to vote Huin in itself wouldn't be enough to absolve him, as he could have been counting on Mac being a certain lynch regardless of what he did. But this isn't what it sounded like at all. He checked first whether others would like to join him in voting Huin and only did so after a few others had expressed interest, and later egged others on to vote Huin. If wolf-on-wolf, this would be not only very brutal (not just throwing someone under the bus but actually inviting more buses to come along) but also quite unnecessary; why would Legate throw in a fairly under-the-radar fellow when he himself wasn't even suspected that much and didn't need the brownie points? So I'm inclined to leave Legate alone for the time being.

2) Not necessarily in my opinion - as I recall, it already looked like it was going to be between the two of them, and it's possible he decided to turn wolf-on-wolf to make whoever survived look better. I still think there's some merit to Lottie's point about it being somewhat unlikely that both of our major bandwagons yesterDay were against wolves, as we still had five wolves in play and at least some of them probably would rather have voted for an innocent than a packmate. Even given how last-minute the Huinwagon was, Inzil, Lommy and Lottie had also been voted, and Brinn was discussed. So if Huin and Mac were both wolves, I would have expected more of a push towards another candidate from their unknown packmates since there were other options on the table too.

[Lalaith]

Now something today about Eonwe didn't sit right and I went back over his posts. This is what I found.

YesterDay, Eonwe makes two posts drawing attention to the interaction betwen Shasta and Kit the second wondering if they are an infector pair
Then:
Eonwe, 5.23pm yesterDay (my italics)
Now that the Ranger discussion has been brought out into the public, I have to say that this post makes me feel better about Shasta:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin View Post
I think perhaps Kitanna is my best read at the moment. I had fundamentally the same reaction to G55's eleventh-hour Ranger claim as she did.
I know last time I said that it is possible that they are both wolves being cheeky, but it does seem more likely that he was, at least in that instance, trying to bury this discussion by pointing to Kit's post as something anyone might say. Again, it is possible that they are being very bold wolves, but generally, it seems risky to attach so closely to another wolf especially when you've voted in the same way. So whoever Shasta thinks the Ranger is, I think he is trying to protect them here by trying to suppress this discussion that has just been blown open (luckily not enough for any reveals to occur). Thus doesn't necessarily say anything about Kit's role, or even what Shasta thinks about Kit's role - whether he believes/believed that she is a gifted, ordo, or wolf, discussion of the Ranger is dangerous for the real Ranger.
(NB this was something Lottie had pointed to earlier anyway)
Then
Lalaith 7.22pm yesterDay
Ok I wasn't going to say anything about The Kit Thing but seeing as it's being openly discussed - *glares at certain people* -
(this is the first time I mention Kit at all)

Eonwe toDay re Kit:
I don't think it was a 100% obvious thing, and I'm a little suspicious of those who act like it was - it's a lot easier to believe someone's slip when you know no-one is trying to lie to you. I know part of my reason for putting her in the maybe suspicious category was to not make it such a big thing like you and Zil did. The more attention that got drawn to it, the more obvious it seemed.
Lalaith - I didn't like how she brought more attention to the fact that Kit was the Ranger yesterDay

So TL;DR Eonwe spends a lot of time yesterDay talking about Kit and Shasta, first as suspicious and then he openly discusses her being a Ranger, two hours before I mention her at all (at a time when KitRanger had been discussed by lots of people) and then toDay finds my comment suspicious for outing Kit. :rolleyes:

Really. This does not look good.

[Lalaith]

Legate
They may just be a bit less reluctant to Wolf-on-Wolf vote than they would otherwise be. But nothing more, nothing less. It definitely does not mean that they would be eager to do so.

Yes, that was basically my point.

[Inziladun]

So if Huin and Mac were both wolves, I would have expected more of a push towards another candidate from their unknown packmates since there were other options on the table too.

This is a good point. I or Lottie could have been better candidates. Maybe I should reconsider about Mac.

x/d with Lal

[Thinlómien]

Not exhibiting visible symptoms

Legate - he gives me a bad vibe every now and then, but he's overall looked quite innocent and his role in the Huine lynch makes me 90% certain he's innocent. I think he's too nice to bus a packmate that brutally. :p

Pitchwife - very innocent vote placement yesterDay, has given me an increasingly innocent vibe as the game has gone on. Not very worried about him at the moment.


Bear watching

Lottie - I can't shake the shady vibe I have from her, but her Huine vote looks very innocent. I repeat: if she was merely aiming for self preservation, she could have picked Mac over Huine, and Mac is either innocent or a more heavily suspected wolf than Huine was.

Kath - seriously flying under my radar. Can't give her a free pass on merely "not having done anything suspicious" anymore.

Lhuna - I like her cheerful tone and the way she seems to be going against the flow quite often, but I don't have any actual reasons to consider her innocent. I keep lowkey suspecting her mostly because she could easily be packmates with my other suspects or even with Huine.

Boro - oscillating between weird Boro and normal Boro in this game. The glimpses of normal Boro I have seen have been mostly very reassuring to me, but his yesterDay's vote makes me more wary of him again.

Rune - seriously under my radar. I used to lean innocent on him, but now I don't think I have enough grounds to think so. YesterDay's vote doesn't say much.


Bear even more watching (trying to differentiate here because I realised I put like 80% of the village in the same category)

Greenie - my brain is lowkey fixated on the idea that she's a wolf slipping under my radar. I don't have any great reasons to think so, and I do agree with a lot of her points and suspicions. (Well, I always do. After all, given that she's my sister so is it weird if our brains work similarly? :D) That being said, it's however very interesting to me where she and I disagree, and I still think it lowkey dodgy how she avoided the whole Huinescussion yesterDay and instead kept discussing Mac and Brinn.

Lalaith - possibly the least innocent looking Huine voter - she's callously sacrificed packmates before, and associating herself with the ranger was a pretty safe move in general. But mostly I don't really have much on her either way, and she could as well be a wolf flying under the radar or an innocent flying under the radar...

Brinn - also not a glaringly innocent vote as far as the Huine votes go. Has been consistently suspicious all game, which paradoxically makes me slightly less worried about her. If anyone, innocent!Brinn would be a very easy suspicion target for the wolves. But that doesn't mean she's innocent of course. Also, Hui's defence of her makes me very confused. I originlly thought it looks quite wolf-on-wolf, but someone pointed out it looks almost like Hui slipping up that he knows Brinn is innocent. I'm quite torn about Brinn.

Eönwë - sealed Huine's fate, which makes me feel a little better about him. Otherwise I find him somewhat fishy and opportunistic (see: for instance the way he blames Shasta for holding onto his vote until things were resolved when he himself all but did the same) and he's also someone I consider a likely "fellow wolf" to a lot of people.

THE Ka - also "used to consider innocent on very little evidence, don't want to do so anymore". In fact, I've become slightly suspicious of her. The way she seems to play in her own little bubble, steering clear of controversy while "being helpful" very much reminds me of the "Fellowship of Saruman" ww game where she was rp'ing Radagast so endearingly in her own bubble with the birds and other cute animals that she flew under everybody's radar while she was actually a wolf. Also, her vote yesterDay is a little dodgy to me, as well as her staying away from the Huinescussion.

Shasta - pros: looks like he was shielding Kit. Cons: the way he hovered around yesterDay during the whole lynch without sticking his neck out. Also seemed reluctant to take part in the Huinescussion until he was forced to.


Would seriously consider quarantining

Zil - I used to think him quite innocent, and also was reluctant to join the chorus of lowkey Zil suspicion which seemed to be based on nothing more than the usual kneejerk "suspicious vibe" that always surrounds him - as I said, he's generally someone who's quite easy to get lynched so it makes sense for wolves to keep him on a suspicion list. But he's making me very uneasy now with his dodgy vote yesterDay, his fatalistic attitude about getting lynched toDay, and being fixated only on a few villagers (as someone said, convenient if he's a wolf thinking he's getting the axe).

Mac - okay, I hate to say this, but he has started to seem a lot more innocent to me. :D Like, my gut feeling is a lot better, but my logic still cannot fathom why innocent Mac would have acted the way he did yesterDay. Greenie summarised this quite well in her #666.

Sally - Eeevil cupcake. Eeeevil. Has been suspiciously safe in her choices since the beginning, tried to save Huine yesterDay, toDay first seemed to have given up and now is trying to convince people she'd have bussed a fellow!Huine. There's nothing innocent in this mix. Certainly my main suspect at the moment.


edit: xed with #674 and onwards

[Lalaith]

One more thing and then I really must go out into the sunshine. :cool: (kudos to all players who are able to post stuff on their phones - don't know how you do it. I need two tabs open on a pc to cope at all)
Greenie could you explain what you mean here? It might just be me being old and slow but the second part of your argument seems to contradict the first? Ie you start by saying Mac doesn't seem more innocent, but your last statement seems to imply he was, because if he was a wolf something else would have happened?

2) Not necessarily in my opinion - as I recall, it already looked like it was going to be between the two of them, and it's possible he decided to turn wolf-on-wolf to make whoever survived look better. I still think there's some merit to Lottie's point about it being somewhat unlikely that both of our major bandwagons yesterDay were against wolves, as we still had five wolves in play and at least some of them probably would rather have voted for an innocent than a packmate. Even given how last-minute the Huinwagon was, Inzil, Lommy and Lottie had also been voted, and Brinn was discussed. So if Huin and Mac were both wolves, I would have expected more of a push towards another candidate from their unknown packmates since there were other options on the table too

[Kath]

Well, swings and roundabouts there. Yay for a wolf for the lynch but boo for the loss of the Ranger.

For me, the conversation around Kit remains one of the most suspicious things to have come from yesterDay. If something suggests a player is Gifted, which Kit's reaction to G55's reveal so did, I can't see the sense in drawing attention to it for any other reason than to sow doubt and confusion.

That's why I voted Inzil yesterDay and a close second would have been Lhuna as they seemed to be the ringleaders in the discussion.

I've gone back and looked at it in a bit more detail today and a few other names popped up amidst the discussion.

Inzil is the first to mention it and does so very early on, it's why he stuck out at the ringleader to me. Everybody ignores it. It's doesn't come up again until the next page when Shasta appears.

I think perhaps Kitanna is my best read at the moment. I had fundamentally the same reaction to G55's eleventh-hour Ranger claim as she did.
Saw it, nodded, moved on. Assumed everyone was in the same boat here. No alarm bells rang for me at this as it felt like he was brushing past it. On the flip side, you could argue that this is actually a way of bringing it back up while seeming not to. It was the only thing in the post so it stuck out on its own. It didn't read that way to me though.

I can't help wondering if Shasta and Kitanna aren't an Infector duo being too obvious and just messing with us (though whether this would make Brinn more likely to be an Infector or someone they're trying to frame is up in the air).
This then brings the subject up again. I didn't really see this yesterDay, or at least I saw this and just sort of dismissed it because I was assuming Kit was a Gifted and hadn't seen anything from Shasta that made me worry. Interesting that its almost said to force a focus on Brinn rather than the two people he's actually suggesting might be wolves though.

Ditto. I'm kind of wondering how she's still alive. My reasoning goes round in circles but hovers more over somewhere unsettling.
This was in reply to Inzil and I really didn't like this either.

I third this. [Zil, my eyebrow raised at you earlier was me doubting you should have drawn attention to it, but it's out in the open now anyway.] It would have been very bold of a wolf to react this way to a gifted reveal, but it would have been very bold of an innocent too.
This was my thinking on the matter. Given Inzil and Lhuna had picked up conversation at this point, Pitch adding on to it wasn't great, but he was giving an opposing side to the argument.

It could hardly have stayed hidden. Thing is, the only way she could have known G55 wasn't who she claimed was if she was the Ranger herself. If that's the case, why on Arda would Rikae have been a better target over Kit (unless the Wolves indeed were antsy Rikae might be the Seer)?
This was the post that really made me suspicious. Because yes it could. In pages of analysis at this point, only 5 posts had mentioned it, one of which was Inzil's first one bringing it up and two more were in response to that.

Second, I was just going to ignore Inzil and hope no one else brought it up. But I knew G55 was a Liar McLiarFace with her pants set ablaze.
Kit responds.

But seriously, Kit, if that is so, how are you alive? Another framing attempt?
Hmm. I suppose Kit had brought it up herself by now so conversation about it was going to happen. Is Pitch saying here that he does think she's telling the truth?

How? As an ordo your certainty can only be asymptotic to 100% AT BEST. But I didn't think you would be so careless? flippant? bold? as to post that if you 100% knew for sure, if you get my meaning. Hence my reasoning in circles.

Edit: Or as a wolf, for that matter
This is what put Lhuna a very close second for my vote yesterDay. Kit had explained the reason for her admittedly not sensible outburst and this was unnecessary.

That's what I can't fathom. Does it give Rikae-as-possible-Seer more weight? Or could it point to a very bold Kitwolf?
Now honestly if Kit had been a wolf and had chosen to post herself laughing at G55 pretending to be the Ranger at a point when G55 could actually still have been saved from the lynch by the last few people voting elsewhere ... well quite frankly she'd have deserved a medal.

Not so much pressing her for information as loudly wondering how she's alive and if she has anything to say about it.
Which she did. It should have been dropped before this point.

OK, I must say this kind of makes sense, or at least I'm inclined to believe Kit for now. It would really make no sense for a wolf to stick their neck out like that, because
if G55 died as the Ranger, she would come under fire the next Day, and
if G55 died as an ordo (or cobbler), we'd question how Kit could have known that, as we do now.
Why would she needlessly put herself into this predicament?

Anyway, I move we leave Kit alone for now. Let's see how long the wolves can afford to let a Ranger live.
Let's leave Kit alone now that everyone's helpfully had a chat about exactly which Gifted she might be.

I brought it up because I wanted to know why she would say that, and I thought it impossible the Wolves had not already been well aware of it.

My thinking was more along the lines of she might either know who the Ranger is, or be unable to commit suicide at Night. But I agree with moving on for now.
And this is why I really didn't like these two yesterDay. They KEPT bringing it back up.

Also, IF Kit is the genuine ranger and the wolves left her alive in order to frame her (and because they prioritised possibly-seerish Rikae), they would want to make sure to bring the topic up, right? So I think my eyebrow actually stands.
Pitch's responses are always in reply to something else, and so they feel less like trying to keep the subject going, but they do actually manage to do just that.

Sorry guys. But you are both suspicious as Morgoth wearing a tutu under the Two Trees. When you mentioned it first, fine. When you clarified that you wouldn't have talked about it if it didn't seem clear that it was "out in the open" anyway, fine. But when you continued battering it even after Kit answered you, I was like, what in the name of all the sons of Fëanor?!?
This is in regards to Inzil and Pitch. I agree, but I would have had Lhuna's name in there as well.

Also, if Kit is NOT the Ranger and the wolves decided to sacrifice her in order to draw out the real Ranger, I would implore the real Ranger to NOT come out just to expose her. I agree that I am hugely suspicious of Zil and, to a lesser degree, Lhuna and Pitch for continuing to talk about it. Drawing attention to it doesn't help the village at all.
Now on first glance this seems sensible, but I don't like this plea to the Real Ranger. Just ... obviously they wouldn't come forward.

I had (and have) no intention of voting for her. It just made no sense that Wolves would have let her alone.
If you don't actually think she's suspicious I do think that the conversation could have been avoided then. If she had still been alive toDay I'd have maybe understood it.

I know last time I said that it is possible that they are both wolves being cheeky, but it does seem more likely that he was, at least in that instance, trying to bury this discussion by pointing to Kit's post as something anyone might say. Again, it is possible that they are being very bold wolves, but generally, it seems risky to attach so closely to another wolf especially when you've voted in the same way. So whoever Shasta thinks the Ranger is, I think he is trying to protect them here by trying to suppress this discussion that has just been blown open (luckily not enough for any reveals to occur). Thus doesn't necessarily say anything about Kit's role, or even what Shasta thinks about Kit's role - whether he believes/believed that she is a gifted, ordo, or wolf, discussion of the Ranger is dangerous for the real Ranger.
Interesting backtrack on his post from earlier. While also being incredibly non-commital.

A post of Rune's pointed out something I'd then missed from Eonwe:
Kitanna - Not sure what to think of her now, but I haven't taken her off the hook completely.
He had her down as a possible vote candidate.

Then the voting/end of Day happened and wow that was a whirlwind. I only saw it all after the fact and it looked like posts were coming every few seconds! Eonwe or Shasta were down as the deciding vote. Ended up being Eonwe.

So Inzil I still don't like for the same reasons as yesterDay, Lhuna as well, and Eonwe is worrying me now that I've had more time to look at what was going on.

I will have crossed since 682 if there are more posts as I went bolding.

[A Little Green]

Greenie could you explain what you mean here? It might just be me being old and slow but the second part of your argument seems to contradict the first? Ie you start by saying Mac doesn't seem more innocent, but your last statement seems to imply he was, because if he was a wolf something else would have happened?
2) Not necessarily in my opinion - as I recall, it already looked like it was going to be between the two of them, and it's possible he decided to turn wolf-on-wolf to make whoever survived look better. I still think there's some merit to Lottie's point about it being somewhat unlikely that both of our major bandwagons yesterDay were against wolves, as we still had five wolves in play and at least some of them probably would rather have voted for an innocent than a packmate. Even given how last-minute the Huinwagon was, Inzil, Lommy and Lottie had also been voted, and Brinn was discussed. So if Huin and Mac were both wolves, I would have expected more of a push towards another candidate from their unknown packmates since there were other options on the table tooAh, this is me being unclear - I think there's a "but" or "however" missing halfway through that quote! To clarify, I don't think Huin's vote for Mac makes Mac look more innocent, but there was another argument against them being fellow wolves that I found quite plausible.

[Thinlómien]

Another thing: I have, like a lot of people, been thinking about wolf-on-wolf voting, and with two specific questions in mind:
1. Does Legate's first vote for Hui mean that I was wrong to suspect him yesterDay?
2. Does Hui's 3rd vote for Mac point to his (Mac's) innocence?

Another thing then crossed my mind. Would the fact that a dead wolf ensures that the baddie vote now dominates the QT, make wolves less reluctant to lynch each other? After all, this means the packmate can continue to be useful and push their agenda elsewhere... My two cents: 1. Likely yes. 2. Likely no (Hui had laid the grounds for voting Mac earlier, and it might have looked weird to back out of it. Besides, their vote was also self-preservation.) "3". I don't think so. The qt has just one vote. One (publicly known!) wolf vote is not much of a consolation prize for a dead fellow, I'd say.

I did not like the Kit discussion yesterDay and I think everyone involved in it is low key stupid (including Legate who said like five times "please shut up about Kit" which is, paradoxically, a very loud way to address the situation). :p But really, can we tell if there were wolves involved or if it was just innocents who didn't necessairly think things through? I don't think the Kitscussion is more informative than the Huinelynch - which makes me a little wary of anyone who chooses to pay attention to it primarily (looking at Kath here).

[Lalaith]

Now honestly if Kit had been a wolf and had chosen to post herself laughing at G55 pretending to be the Ranger at a point when G55 could actually still have been saved from the lynch by the last few people voting elsewhere ... well quite frankly she'd have deserved a medal.


Which she did. It should have been dropped before this point.


Let's leave Kit alone now that everyone's helpfully had a chat about exactly which Gifted she might be.




And this is why I really didn't like these two yesterDay. They KEPT bringing it back up.


Pitch's responses are always in reply to something else, and so they feel less like trying to keep the subject going, but they do actually manage to do just that.


This is in regards to Inzil and Pitch. I agree, but I would have had Lhuna's name in there as well.


Now on first glance this seems sensible, but I don't like this plea to the Real Ranger. Just ... obviously they wouldn't come forward.


If you don't actually think she's suspicious I do think that the conversation could have been avoided then. If she had still been alive toDay I'd have maybe understood it.


Interesting backtrack on his post from earlier. While also being incredibly non-commital.

A post of Rune's pointed out something I'd then missed from Eonwe:

He had her down as a possible vote candidate.

Then the voting/end of Day happened and wow that was a whirlwind. I only saw it all after the fact and it looked like posts were coming every few seconds! Eonwe or Shasta were down as the deciding vote. Ended up being Eonwe.

So Inzil I still don't like for the same reasons as yesterDay, Lhuna as well, and Eonwe is worrying me now that I've had more time to look at what was going on.

I will have crossed since 682 if there are more posts as I went bolding.


Kath this is all very interesting. Did you see my post #680? We seem to be on similar trains of thought.

[Boromir88]

I have to agree with Legate here – I don’t get how an evil-majority QT means we should try pre-voting again. Boro, can you explain?


I don't pass up an opportunity to bluff wolves. We know the QT vote cannot be trusted. So I want to see what name they put out there when given what they think I, and the collective, might do. If the last 2 DLs prove anything it's anything can happen in the final hour. I want to try to force the hands of the evil QT vote.

It won't go so far to determine anything with today's lynch, but can be used in hindsight tomorrow. In general the more information the better, even if that information is attractive bait. If we don't offer them any information, they can use the QT vote for any reason and there would be no way to learn anything from it. So much for those arguments about needing information? It's a battle of wits, trying to out-fox the foxes, to the death.

There's no point in it now. I mean if I'm the only one who does it, they'll just ignore me anyway. So, I consider the matter closed.

I don't want to beat a dead horse with all the Mac-voters. My reasoning for not Huey is I generally don't like joining a bandwagon on someone not present to defend himself. Mac was present had ample opportunity to defend himself, Huey wasn't and I had not given him much thought. I'm not going to feel upset over a bandwagonned wolf, but I'm also not going to throw a self-pity party that I was wrong not to join it. I move on to the next day.

I am definitely suspicious of the Mac-voters who have come out insisting to look at wolf-on-wolf voters, or the possibility that Mac is also a wolf. (Sally and Inzil). That would be something if the top 2 lynch possibilities were both wolves. Taking into account what I've seen so far from the pack, I find that unlikely Mac-wolf planned at night to go suicidal.

I have to get going for the next several hours. I was hoping to take a good look at the non Mac/Huey voters, but I won't have time until I'm back around 3 hours before DL. I may be able to sneak some time in to keep up on the activity.

Do you start seeing the difference now? I didn't focus on the "throw away" voters in Day 1 because a cobbler was lynched and there were votes that struck me as more productive to spend my time with. Yesterday a wolf was lynched, and the "throw away" voters look more suspicious than the people who voted Huey.

Of those, the one that stood out to me, but I'll take a look at all of them, was Lhuna's. I still don't know why she voted Lommy. Unless I missed it there was almost no reasoning there. Granted, her time zone avoids her from being present when the most activity happens, but that looks like a 2nd throw away vote. Her first was her own, Day 1 fine. I completely missed Huey's "slip" and Lhuna's response. If someone can be so kind to point me in the right direction to that.

[Kath]

Kath this is all very interesting. Did you see my post #680? We seem to be on similar trains of thought.
I was looking more at things from yesterDay as I wanted to be clear on it so I'm afraid I skimmed past it at the time. But looking at it now yes I can see we have ended up with the same ideas about Eonwe.

[Macalaure]

Eonwe is ready to lynch half the village in a pinch. How comforting.

Like, my gut feeling is a lot better, but my logic still cannot fathom why innocent Mac would have acted the way he did yesterDay.
Logic, schmogic. :p

Seriously, folks. I know I'm a main topic of conversation, but don't get tunnel-vision.
I wasn't really worried about Zil until he said this.
Reminds me a bit of me late yesterDay, as some said, an innocent who's aware the village is out to get him, but you know you've dug your own hole and you're kind of accepting it. If I squint and tilt my head, I can see an innocent Inzil, but the hard evidence is against him. Right now, I'd prefer Sally and Greeny to him, though.

Speaking of which, I'm a little saddened by the scant amount of suspicion Greenie is getting. I'm going to put an analysis together, trying my best to approach it with a fresh mind.

[Macalaure]

There isn't much in her first few posts, aside from some general musing. I pointed out her defense of Huin in #135 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=723314&postcount=135) before. Knowing he was evil and I am not, I cannot see this as not suspicious. Right after that, she casts some suspicious light on him and Lommy. In her big list in #164 she keeps the spotlight on Lommy, but gets fluffy on Huin:
Huinesoron – Doesn’t follow the herd and brings up points others haven’t. Suspected Lommy, defended Mac. I get a good vibe so far, though worth keeping an eye on.

Later she talks some about the things surrounding Gala and looked at Kitanna and found her mostly innocent. All good and well. In #206 she turns on me and then shortly after votes for me.
Maybe flimsy, but that post (#196) where he says he doesn't know who to vote for, lists a few people he feels good about, comes up with a decent argument against Brinniel and finishes with calling an earlier post by her "wolfie", is the single most suspicious thing I've seen toDay.
I'm biased here, obviously, but I really don't think my post had the merit of "the single most suspicious thing". Also, "the single most suspicious thing" clashes quite a bit with "maybe flimsy". If what I did was so suspicious, then why call the suspicion flimsy in the same sentence??


Starts Day2 with solid contributions, then goes off on me and Brinn. A key point in her suspicion is that she's under the assumption that we both mean the wolves killed Rikae only to frame one of us. This is fair enough, as at this point neither of us explicitly stated that that's not the only thing to it, I think.

The way she focuses as we get closer to the deadline worries me. Yes, innocents can make up their mind stubbornly and single-mindedly push for their candidates once it gets to voting, but the vibe I get is just sinister. She repeats the same things without taking in anything new. Greenie and Lommy made very similar cases against me, put compare Greenie's handling of it to Lommy's. Then again, I do understand how lack of time can make one act like this. Unfortunately, that's what lack of time does to wolves, too.

Her vote comes when the rising suspicion against Huin was in the air, but the first vote had not been cast yet, so her vote by itself is not too problematic.


ToDay she admits to her tunnel-vision. Fair enough. She backs off of me and Brinn, largely because she over-committed before. I could see both an innocent or a wolf doing this.

later lists Huin under “very bad” along with me, but this is after he had already voted so couldn’t act on it.
Incorrect. This is by the time I got to make that list. I turned on him right after he made his post linking me and Inzil. He made several posts, acknowledging my suspicion in one, between that and his vote.

Greenie's main suspects in her list (outside of Brinn and me) are Sally and Inzil, who are pretty much universally suspected by everyone, it seems, so that's a fairly safe thing to do.

The rest of her posts toDay all seem fair and helpful, though the explanation of her vote to Legate seems a bit wolfish. Wolves pre-think how their votes can be made to sound all reasonable before the Day starts, and I get a bit of that vibe there.


In conclusion, much of my suspicion of her is based on her behavior towards me, so at any rate I understand why others wouldn't be picking up the same vibe. She's not as glaringly evil as I thought, but she still gives me major heebie-jeebies.


(Boro has been odd all game, and if nothing else, his vote alone warrants a closer look, so that's where I'm headed next.)

[THE Ka]

:confused::confused:

Both of you please explain what you're referring to (ie what aspect of "what happened with Mac yesterDay" are you referring to - quite a lot happened with Mac yesterday. :p)

Zil's playful '-if I'm the main topic of conversation' quip reminded me of what we saw of Mac repeatedly yesterDay referring to himself as being the main target of suspicion based on bias from Rikae's bait post and then trying to jokingly/nervously skirt from it. Then we see Sally do similarly toDay, but to most if not all of her interactions with suspicion from other players.
I know Sally has acted this way in the past, but I haven't seen this from Zil over the past two Days at all. Not typical of their responses, so it seemed as if they were trying to remind and stoke suspicion and I didn't understand why.

2. Does Hui's 3rd vote for Mac point to his (Mac's) innocence?

A valid thought to consider.

Legate votes Hui - first vote

(Mac posts twice during this time span of 13 minutes between Legate and Hui's individual posts - reading over Hui's posts while he read his raises his blood pressure and a final thoughts list with Hui in danger)

Hui votes Mac - Third vote

In their vote-post, we get that they are aware of scrutiny based upon them flip-flopping, generalizations, etc. Acceptance of scrutiny and a promise to follow up toMorrow to respond to accusations.

They conclude with this:
Checking for cross-posts... okay, I got a vote, and I'm bad for Mac's blood pressure, but ultimately I don't see anything to change my stated intention (specifically including, nothing in Mac's post (last second edit: posts)

Tone wise, it comes across that Hui was aware that suspicion against him was beginning to roll, but they choose to try and play calm and collected to see how it goes (almost like an insurance plan in case it doesn't and Hui assumes when players wonder why the next Day, they'll have a fairly safe leg to stand on).

Hui's closing words sound like a soft defense, but ultimately non-committal. He won't bite back, doesn't want to appear indignant or that his Mac vote is out of spite towards Mac's frustration with him. Yet, being Mac's 3rd vote, it's pretty safe in the line up and does come across as exactly orchestrated to be out of spite.

If Hui was a more experienced wolf, I'd begin to wonder why they joined a forming bandwagon at a fairly safe point with that tone in their post, but looking back I don't see it being one out of experience more of they knew they were caught and based on their previous statements and 'hunches' Mac was the only vote they had to appear somewhat expected and possibly nudge the Macwagon if they survived that day.

Does it absolutely point at Mac's innocence? Not entirely, Hui could still be going in step as the back-up plan if others weren't working out. It does however point that Hui was playing rather typical to his 'hedging all bets' in previous posts and was tone-wise more unsure of themselves. No one wants to be voted off, even if they're a wolf and the reluctance shows.

[Inziladun]

Mac is still looking better to me. Maybe it's because they seem to understand where I was coming from earlier.

Lommy is worrying. Despite having voted the same was I did yesterDay (granted, with different timing) they seem to be ready to climb on a wagon against me.
Coupled with the non-committal "suspicion" from Huey against them, it merits consideration.

[Loslote]

Greenie's main suspects in her list (outside of Brinn and me) are Sally and Inzil, who are pretty much universally suspected by everyone, it seems, so that's a fairly safe thing to do.

The thing that struck me as weird was that Greenie put Sally and Zil as her top suspects, but didn't include Boro in that group - she put him two groups up, suspicion-wise, saying:

Boro - oscillating between weird Boro and normal Boro in this game. The glimpses of normal Boro I have seen have been mostly very reassuring to me, but his yesterDay's vote makes me more wary of him again.

Now obviously you can trust or suspect people for different reasons, you don't have to lump people together just because they voted similarly, but I do think it's eyebrow-raising to suspect two people for doing something but not really suspect the third person to do that same thing. She mentions that the vote makes her 'wary', but doesn't really suspect him, which could be soft wolf-on-wolf. I could see them being a wolf pair - if one of them ends up being guilty, I would definitely want to look at the other, as well.

Note: Quoted post is Lommy's, NOT Greenie's.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

If the wolves thought Kit was the Ranger from her disbelief of G55 they'd just kill her. No reason to bring it up in thread. I don't find Inzil suspicious for that - it's a Cobbler move, but we've already dealt with that problem.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

I'm very likely going to vote a Mac voter today. Is it likely Huin was bussed? Sure. But by how many wolves? I flat refuse to believe Huin was hung completely out to dry with not a single ally attempting to save him with a vote for Mac.

[Thinlómien]

Lottie, you're talking about Greenie and quoting my suspicion list. No wonder it's inconsistent. ;)

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Sally springs to mind immediately. Her attitude of "you're wrong but fair enough" strikes me as... I dunno, "hail fellow well met?" Too easy.

Lommy is back on my radar for reasons unrelated to her vote - I don't like her classification of me during QT yesterday as "not sticking my neck out" when in fact up until the Eonwe vote, second to last, I was making my vote more and more important by not using it, with the vote as tied as it was. Feels like intentional misrepresentation.

Eonwe would be a cold wolf indeed to put the final nail in Huin's coffin when he could have done the same to Mac, although it's worth a look to see if he could have plausibly done so with regard to his previous suspicions. Not off my radar completely, but I have no interest in going there today.

[Loslote]

Lottie, you're talking about Greenie and quoting my suspicion list. No wonder it's inconsistent. ;)

Whoooops! I could have sworn I saw a list from Greenie, but then, I haven't had coffee yet this morning... I'm going to add a note to my previous post mentioning that it was actually Lommy's list so I don't try to quote myself later and get mixed up. :o

[THE Ka]

In general the more information the better, even if that information is attractive bait. If we don't offer them any information, they can use the QT vote for any reason and there would be no way to learn anything from it.

Wolves could have thought the same thing though, whether we sit on our hands or not. If we 'offer' them a bulk of information they can still decide to throw out a vote that goes against any conclusive reasoning we've made for the sake of just chaos.
I just don't see us gleaning any major pearls of wisdom by waiting for the QT vote.

Are you trying to suggest that we go the 'fake-vote' route, throw a lot of information around our choices early on when their DL comes and then at DL vote completely different as some 'gotcha'? :confused:
A reminder that who started the fake-vote thing is sitting in the QT and is aware of it.

If so, then my hat's off to you for playing rather in character to your namesake by suggesting we try to use their tools against them.

[Brinniel]

Your own vote for Hui cross-posted, I think, with mine. If Eonwe and I (and possibly Lottie) are slightly suspicious Hui voters in your mind, what about your vote?
Well, I know I'm innocent, so I can't say that my own vote is suspicious. I had also been wary of Hui throughout the Day as I wondered if his strong defense of me on Day 1 was a wolf trying to appear in a better light should I be lynched.

Combined with timing, I thought hiding behind Kit for your reason to vote him could possibly be wolf-on-wolf. I think Eonwe's vote could be more likely wolf-on-wolf - he put the nail in the coffin, but if he had voted Mac instead, his vote would look very suspicious indeed should Mac be innocent and Hui later revealed as a wolf.

[Thinlómien]

Lommy is worrying. Despite having voted the same was I did yesterDay (granted, with different timing) they seem to be ready to climb on a wagon against me.
Coupled with the non-committal "suspicion" from Huey against them, it merits consideration."You don't get to suspect me if you voted the same not-the-known-wolf as I did yesterDay"? Let's face it, your vote could have been an attempt to save Huin, mine wasn't. That (plus your conviction of getting lynched) is why I suspect you.

But if it comforts you, I still suspect Sally more and I'm not sure two wolves would have done the same fishy packmate-saving move with similarly incriminating timing.

So just as a statement: I'd prefer to lynch Sally toDay because the evidence against her is pretty overwhelming, but I'm not opposed to Zil or Mac.

I'm very likely going to vote a Mac voter today. Is it likely Huin was bussed? Sure. But by how many wolves? I flat refuse to believe Huin was hung completely out to dry with not a single ally attempting to save him with a vote for Mac. Hear, hear. I don't understand why this isn't a more universal sentiment. Is it because the wolves are not feeling it? :Merisu:

Whoooops! I could have sworn I saw a list from Greenie,Here: #628 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=724011&postcount=628) and for reasonings #621 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=724002&postcount=621).

[Shastanis Althreduin]

"You don't get to suspect me if you voted the same not-the-known-wolf as I did yesterDay"? Let's face it, your vote could have been an attempt to save Huin, mine wasn't. That (plus your conviction of getting lynched) is why I suspect you.

But if it comforts you, I still suspect Sally more and I'm not sure two wolves would have done the same fishy packmate-saving move with similarly incriminating timing.

So just as a statement: I'd prefer to lynch Sally toDay because the evidence against her is pretty overwhelming, but I'm not opposed to Zil or Mac.

Hear, hear. I don't understand why this isn't a more universal sentiment. Is it because the wolves are not feeling it? :Merisu:

Here: #628 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=724011&postcount=628) and for reasonings #621 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=724002&postcount=621).

Lommy, stop sounding sensible after I just figured out why you were pinging me, thanks. :P

[Loslote]

Here: #628 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=724011&postcount=628) and for reasonings #621 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=724002&postcount=621).

Thanks! I somehow got that one and your list all mixed up. I've taken a look at both, and you both do suspect Sally and Zil more than Boro, but I think it caught my attention more because I noticed it a couple of times without realizing it was different people saying it. :p Still something to take a look at if Boro ends up being an Infector, but less significant, since I don't know that two wolves would both decide to try to soften the suspicion on Boro in the same way.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Back, a few remarks...

I liked Kath's post (#685) where she analysed the whole "let's talk about Kit" stuff yesterDay, and kinda find myself agreeing with most of the stuff she says there. It makes me think - was it that there was a Zilwolf (or others, but him being the first starter) desperate because they'd spared Kit on the hope that it will cause a debate in the village, and it didn't, so he had to start it himself?

Also agree that Lhuna looks worse in that discussion and Pitch looks a tiny bit better (but I also have overall a bit better feeling about him. It is true that he DID keep the discussion going). And:

Originally Posted by Pitch
But seriously, Kit, if that is so, how are you alive? Another framing attempt?
Hmm. I suppose Kit had brought it up herself by now so conversation about it was going to happen. Is Pitch saying here that he does think she's telling the truth?
Could you perhaps elaborate, Pitch, what were you thinking?

Otherwise, Boro's posting continues to puzzle me.

I don't pass up an opportunity to bluff wolves. We know the QT vote cannot be trusted. So I want to see what name they put out there when given what they think I, and the collective, might do. If the last 2 DLs prove anything it's anything can happen in the final hour. I want to try to force the hands of the evil QT vote.
That's just a really weird reasoning to me, but it can hardly be argued with as suspicious if it's genuine - however, if not, then it was an attempt to communicate with the QT. Anyways, that can't be decided now, but my previously raised eyebrow remains raised.

My reasoning for not Huey is I generally don't like joining a bandwagon on someone not present to defend himself. Mac was present had ample opportunity to defend himself, Huey wasn't and I had not given him much thought. I'm not going to feel upset over a bandwagonned wolf, but I'm also not going to throw a self-pity party that I was wrong not to join it. I move on to the next day.
Horrible excuses. I mean yes, I see the sentiment, but... Huey had been around during the Day, and there were enough posts. A quiet player might make two posts per Day. Would you hesitate to lynch them? It's excuses.

On another note, I am glad that someone also looked at Greenie, among other things. She is often a very good Wolf who can well slide under the radar. I think Mac brought up two good points here:

Greenie's main suspects in her list (outside of Brinn and me) are Sally and Inzil, who are pretty much universally suspected by everyone, it seems, so that's a fairly safe thing to do.

The rest of her posts toDay all seem fair and helpful, though the explanation of her vote to Legate seems a bit wolfish. Wolves pre-think how their votes can be made to sound all reasonable before the Day starts, and I get a bit of that vibe there.

That's what I thought too. Lots of Greenie's posts have been "safe" that way.

There are a couple of new posts that I haven't finished reading by the time I'm posting this, but I wanted to get this out of the way and again not create an infinite scroll. I'll see if there's anything I would like to remark on. (I saw Shasta making some generally good points, just on the first glance.)

[Brinniel]

A look at Lhuna:

On Day 1, she self-votes which doesn't point innocence or guilt. Either way, I'm not a fan of it because it avoids tracing. This is where she also points out Hui's slip, in which I'd like to echo Lommy and Greenie's comments from toDay:
Yeah, I noticed this when Lhuna pointed it out but it was so glaring that I actually ignored it?! Given that, like I've said, I had hard time understanding where Hui was ever coming from, I gave them the benefit of doubt and interpreted it as them talking about having email subsrcibed to the ww thread. But looks like the simpler explanation was true and I should have certainly remembered this slip because had Hui's meaning been innocent, I can't see why they wouldn't have replied to Lhuna and clarified it. But yes, quite telling that no one else than Lhuna caught onto or commented on this. (I'm not sure it automatically makes Lhuna innocent though? If the slipup seemed obvious to wolf!Lhuna, wouldn't she hurry to point it out because she might feel it's fishy not to. Then maybe she dropped it because everybody else ignored it and she thought maybe she overreacted and her packmate didn't condemn themselves after all?)Hm. I find Lhuna somewhat concerning so this is a definite possibility - in a way, a fellow wolf would be more sensitive to noticing wolf slips or thinking them obviously noticeable to everyone given that she'd know it was a slip.
...because I completely agree.

In the same post she writes:
Brinn - just enough input to be visible, but feels careful. Noncommittal. Slippery.

Zil - if he's a wolf, he'll just hide under a cover of making sense.

Kitanna - jumpy, but maybe just an anxious ordo

Mac - scary. Yep, despite having only one post (I think) so far.

Boro - I don't know, I just don't trust him. And with 59 games under his belt, he seems like he's capable of unfathomable depths of deceit.
It was still early in the Day, but still she seems to draw up some suspicion without committing to it.

Day 2: She replies to Inzil's comment on Kit with
Ditto. I'm kind of wondering how she's still alive. My reasoning goes round in circles but hovers more over somewhere unsettling.
I believe some others have mentioned that her involvement in this discussion is worrisome and I concur. Her second sentence seems like she's setting Kit up for suspicion, which could be the reason why the wolves risked not killing her the previous Night. After Kit says she knew G55 was lying, she continues to push:
How? As an ordo your certainty can only be asymptotic to 100% AT BEST. But I didn't think you would be so careless? flippant? bold? as to post that if you 100% k3new for sure, if you get my meaning. Hence my reasoning in circles.

Edit: Or as a wolf, for that matter
Response to Hui:

Looking at the crossposts: do we really want to be pressing Kitanna for more information? Fine if she's a wolf, but otherwise isn't it better to keep the wolves guessing?Not so much pressing her for information as loudly wondering how she's alive and if she has anything to say about it.
Her next comment on the matter:
My thinking was more along the lines of she might either know who the Ranger is, or be unable to commit suicide at Night. But I agree with moving on for now.
But if Kit knew who the ranger was that could indicate that she's the seer...so why bring it up?

In post #394, she decides to focus on analyzing the G55 voters since it was still technically a vote for an innocent. In summary:
Kath: Finds her vote fishy since she didn't say much about G55 until the last couple posts.
Inzil: Calls his vote suspiciously bandwagonny.
Lottie: Leaning innocent for sincerity.
Lommy: Says of her:
Said "Quite a bold statement for Day1 and pretty much out of nowhere??" to Lottie over something the latter had said a couple of times throughout the Day. Then her posts at the end of yesterDay. Prefaced her vote with "let's make this interesting."
Then proceeds to point out Lommy's posts after the fake ranger reveal. Calls her "Wicked. Tricksy. False."
Hui: Says
If he voted Pitch as he preferred, he would have nearly contributed to a three-way tie, although I'm not sure if anyone else (other than Lottie, who at that point had already voted) would also vote for Pitch. Huin-Brinn wolf pair? Can it be that blatant?
Seems inconclusive about him.
Brinn: Finds my vote reasonable being self-preservation, but my behavior suspicious.

In post #425, she again questions my Day1 behavior and finds Eonwe somewhat suspicious for his Day 1 vote and current posting. Says she might vote Brinn, Lommy, or to a lesser extent, Mac (for his strange behavior, but she's not convinced it's wolfish). She ends up voting Lommy and adds this comment:
Parting shot: Friendly reminder, a bandwagon does not start with the first vote.
ToDay she noted my response and says she stands corrected, but it doesn't remove the uneasiness I have from it. Her vote for Lommy feels weak - I don't think there's strong reasoning behind it.

Okay, I had some concerns about Lhuna's posts from yesterDay, and after really reviewing them, I do find her suspicious. For her involvement in the ranger discussion, the way she encouraged suspicion against me in a subtle way, her vote yesterDay, and her bringing up Hui's slip.

--

Okay, I was considering looking at Kath toDay, but I'm running short on time for another long analysis. And I'm actually feeling okay about her for now because I agree with several of her points in post #685.

[satansaloser2005]

Off to run some errands, but I wanted to drop in to say I am here and mostly awake.

Also, lynching me would either be a bad idea or a Very Bad Idea, depending on how my suspicions play out. Either way, you're not lynching a wolf, so maybe look elsewhere? Just saying.

Back in a bit, hopefully with more to say!

[Pitchwife]

It makes me think - was it that there was a Zilwolf (or others, but him being the first starter) desperate because they'd spared Kit on the hope that it will cause a debate in the village, and it didn't, so he had to start it himself?
That was my thought yesterDay.

Could you perhaps elaborate, Pitch, what were you thinking?
At that point I was still struggling to make heads or tails of the situation. I was quite baffled to see Kit alive in the Morning after her outburst to G55, so I wondered whether she could possibly be a wolf preparing a fake reveal (but why would she, at this early point?). When I asked this question I was mostly ready to believe her but also trying to see if, on the off-chance she was fake, I could provoke a slip (like, I dunno, claiming she had protected herself when the rules say she can't, something like that).

I still find it hard to believe that none of the five wolves added up 1+1 about Kit in N2 - I've got to give this to Zil and disagree with Shasta here. I mean, but for Hui and deceased Urwen all in this village are WW veterans, so whoever the wolves are, they would know to look for this kind of thing. So I keep asking myself, why was killing Rikae so important that they'd let a probable Ranger live?

[A Little Green]

I'm biased here, obviously, but I really don't think my post had the merit of "the single most suspicious thing". Also, "the single most suspicious thing" clashes quite a bit with "maybe flimsy". If what I did was so suspicious, then why call the suspicion flimsy in the same sentence??
You’re forgetting it was Day 1. I don’t know about you, but at least for me, it’s entirely possible for a lead to be relatively flimsy but still the single most suspicious thing you see during Day 1.

Incorrect. This is by the time I got to make that list. I turned on him right after he made his post linking me and Inzil. He made several posts, acknowledging my suspicion in one, between that and his vote.
If I understand you right, and remember right, I think this is down to me not writing clearly – the “he” in that quote referred to you, not Huin. As in, your suspicion of Huin came after you had already voted for Lommy so you couldn’t act on it whether you’d have wanted to or not. (Please poke me again if that’s wrong too though!)

Greenie's main suspects in her list (outside of Brinn and me) are Sally and Inzil, who are pretty much universally suspected by everyone, it seems, so that's a fairly safe thing to do.

The rest of her posts toDay all seem fair and helpful, though the explanation of her vote to Legate seems a bit wolfish. Wolves pre-think how their votes can be made to sound all reasonable before the Day starts, and I get a bit of that vibe there.
That's what I thought too. Lots of Greenie's posts have been "safe" that way.
What can I say? Sally and Inzil both cast votes that look like they could have been motivated by trying to save Huin, both bring this up themselves in a fairly shifty way, and neither of their interactions with Huin contradicts a read of them as fellow wolves. Sally didn’t interact with Huin at all and has played generally safe and uncontroversial, while Inzil brought up an obvious Ranger slip, and was suspected by Huin on both days in a way that would just pass for safe wolf-on-wolf. I’d say both have fairly strong cases against them, so I’m not surprised if they are “pretty much universally suspected”.

Lottie, you're talking about Greenie and quoting my suspicion list. No wonder it's inconsistent.
Whoooops! I could have sworn I saw a list from Greenie, but then, I haven't had coffee yet this morning... I'm going to add a note to my previous post mentioning that it was actually Lommy's list so I don't try to quote myself later and get mixed up.The best part about this was, I sat there reading and rereading that quote trying to figure out when I wrote it. Like, I didn't immediately realise I hadn't. Should I be worried?

[Pitchwife]

So, just putting this here because I think this could be important later. This Brinn-wagon everyone's talking about is two votes at this point, mine and Pitch's.

And the people who expressed concern about it are Huey, Lottie and Inzil, in that order (let me know if I missed someone).

Now, I found Pitch suspicious from the beginning, although just for vibes really, and Brinn could have started looking like a convenient vote. On the other hand, three people pushing back on a wagon for coming out of nowhere after two reasoned votes (by day 1 standards) is odd, too, especially if Brinn turns out wolfish or the trolley is redirected toward an innocent. Lottie's and Inzil's positions in the anti-Brinnwagon-wagon are, that is - Huey's is pretty bold.

Edit: X'd with everything since Shasta #233
It can't be as simple as a pack of Hui + Brinn + Zil + Lottie + X, can it? But seriously, since we already know Hui was a wolf, if one or more of the other people Rikae mentions here are his packmates this post alone could explain the wolves' eagerness to off them without the need of assuming a plan to frame Mac or anybody.

And if I'm right with this, the pack would also have preferred us to discuss the lack of a Kit-kill yesterDay rather than alternative reasons for the Rikae-kill beyond their suspicions of Mac and Brinn.

[Loslote]

It's so quiet today. Like, we are three hours away from the deadline on a weekend, and there just isn't that much going on. I feel like a lot of the wolves might be trying to keep a bit of a low profile toDay - there's enough consensus that they can probably get away with just focusing on the obvious, or maybe try to mislead a little if they're in trouble or think they can maybe save a packmate. I like seeing Pitch, Brinn, and Legate all talking about non-obvious players. I feel like Kath and Lalaith tried to start up a little sidebar conversation, but people didn't really bite. That also feels more innocent in my eyes. I got a bit of a "staying on safe topics" vibe from Ka, Lommy, and Greenie, but I don't know that I'd say that's a huge red flag, necessarily, since I get the feeling most people in the village are on similar pages, suspicion-wise.

[THE Ka]

Apologise in advance if this is rushed, at 8:30 this morning we got a call that a family member had passed early in the morning. Given many of the quarantine in place rules for where we live and restricted air travel, we’re at a loss for what to do. My mind isn’t in a great place right now, but I will still finish today. Just may not be as involved the next few days. I have let Nogrod know and I will try not to hinder this game for anyone.

If just by repeated mention that it’s now lodged in my mind, I now have a suspicion of Zil. If I’m going to examine Zil I need to admit that I haven’t looked at Sally much at all. Which could be from timing differences and just play style. Regardless, just for this reason I want to examine her more.


Day one vote – late to DL due to RL needs (understandable)
Because I can't catch up in time and I'll do anything to save the maybe ranger.

Believes G55’s claim? Kit had just given a massive hint to villagers about her role and thrown a lot of proof onto the G55-cobbler fire.

Zil later gives similar speculation on the claim, even speaks with Kit about it Day 2. Is along with others asked why they keep bringing it up despite the risk.

I feel for this poor beaten horse, but one last thing. On the last summa, ask what benefit a wolfly me would get from putting Kit on the spot? I would know she wasn't a wolf. She would probably be the Ranger or Seer. Why not sit back and wait for someone else to bring it up, and get suspected for it (worked splendidly).

Compared to what I’m seeing with Sally, this arguably more truth to Zil’s actions. As others had pointed out, I had even interacted with Zil about their single-mindedness about Kit’s role. Also as I’d stated before yesterday to Lottie, I was baffled why you’d bring it up with such interest. Especially to the one who keeps trying to bring it to the spotlight, if they were a wolf this is an insane level of risk. Casually point it out once? Sure, just to show face and participate. Repeatedly? It’s more believable to me that a worried and over-analytical villager would fall for bringing it up a lot than a wolf who wants to put it into player’s minds but not leave a trail back to themselves.
Zil has proverbially beat us over the head with it and when confronted at least has offered an answer, even if it’s not as in depth as some of us would prefer.

In contrast on the wolfish scale, I’m not seeing this from Sally. It’s a lot of ducking and diving and casual comments that try to show involvement or rehash what others have said (such as post #409 and #538 Day 2), but almost mimic what happened to Mac yesterDay now being done toDay.

Regardless of not really interacting with Hui at all, she places her votes in a way that appear rather calculated to whatever trend in voting is most opportune. In comparison to Zil, you arguably don’t see this.

More like I was hoping for the best outcome regardless of the consequences I knew it would have for me. Dun and I are saying the same thing, but I'm being more open about the way it looks. You're being overly paranoid again, big bad Mac.

Rather easy to say and the voting pattern supports this. Doesn’t make me overtly less assured of any innocence than compared to Zil’s replies about his Kit questioning if we’re going on who is more ‘wolfish’.

Thought I’d never admit it given my suspicion of them the last two game Days, but I have similar misgivings as Brinn does in post #647 about Sally’s casual steering away of attention to Mac votes like it was a plan that didn’t work out great and they’d rather everyone doubt it with perhaps other more vocal wolves taking the charge to focus on Hui’s actions and comments.

To be honest if this is the way of the winds blowing between these two, as I wondered in post #662 to Sally and Zil, I’d rather vote for Sally if anything to see how fellow packmates will consolidate. Truth aside, because we have no iron clad proof, Sally at the end of yesterDay and throughout toDay has garnered more open suspicion to me than Zil.

Maybe I’m just more in my feelings today with everything going on, more than I ever like trusting emotion, but Sally in her replies acts almost as if duping delight and that they’re assured safety compared to the suspicion thrown at Zil, Greenie, or others.


++Sally

I’d like more time to go on, but I haven’t had a chance to read any new posts since 9AM my time and the way things are going, I’m not going to be able to catch up in a way that does justice to later arguments. Rather get my vote out than missing DL. See all of you later.

[Boromir88]

It's so quiet today. Like, we are three hours away from the deadline on a weekend, and there just isn't that much going on. I feel like a lot of the wolves might be trying to keep a bit of a low profile toDay - there's enough consensus that they can probably get away with just focusing on the obvious, or maybe try to mislead a little if they're in trouble or think they can maybe save a packmate. I like seeing Pitch, Brinn, and Legate all talking about non-obvious players. I feel like Kath and Lalaith tried to start up a little sidebar conversation, but people didn't really bite. That also feels more innocent in my eyes. I got a bit of a "staying on safe topics" vibe from Ka, Lommy, and Greenie, but I don't know that I'd say that's a huge red flag, necessarily, since I get the feeling most people in the village are on similar pages, suspicion-wise.

For myself, Saturdays are usually quite hectic. I'm back though and will be here until the end. Doing some work on the non-Mac/Huey voters.

[Inziladun]

It makes me think - was it that there was a Zilwolf (or others, but him being the first starter) desperate because they'd spared Kit on the hope that it will cause a debate in the village, and it didn't, so he had to start it himself?

Maybe: if you forget the fact that I brought it up within a half hour of the Day's start.

It can't be as simple as a pack of Hui + Brinn + Zil + Lottie + X, can it? But seriously, since we already know Hui was a wolf, if one or more of the other people Rikae mentions here are his packmates this post alone could explain the wolves' eagerness to off them without the need of assuming a plan to frame Mac or anybody.

For what it's worth, I wouldn't be averse to a Brinn or Lottie vote.

[satansaloser2005]

Back from surprisingly time-consuming errands.

[satansaloser2005]

I enjoy how people are saying, "So if I have to choose between Dun and Sally...."

You realize it's pretty likely neither of us are wolves, right?



My voting pool for toDay:
Lottie (still my bad vibes list, sadly don't have time to do an analysis)
Mac (though I think I may have given myself tunnel vision)
Boro (because I'll never trust him again after the last game and I just remembered this last night :p)
Ka (for a post I'll quote in a moment)
Steve? (for a post I of course can no longer find, so maybe I'm mistaken)

[Eönwë]

Now something today about Eonwe didn't sit right and I went back over his posts. This is what I found.

YesterDay, Eonwe makes two posts drawing attention to the interaction betwen Shasta and Kit the second wondering if they are an infector pair
Then:
Eonwe, 5.23pm yesterDay (my italics)

(NB this was something Lottie had pointed to earlier anyway)
Then
Lalaith 7.22pm yesterDay

(this is the first time I mention Kit at all)

Eonwe toDay re Kit:



So TL;DR Eonwe spends a lot of time yesterDay talking about Kit and Shasta, first as suspicious and then he openly discusses her being a Ranger, two hours before I mention her at all (at a time when KitRanger had been discussed by lots of people) and then toDay finds my comment suspicious for outing Kit. :rolleyes:

Really. This does not look good.

I can see where you're coming from with some of this, but a lot of this post is either misleading or untrue.

Here are those first two posts (in full, so they can't be twisted out of context):
If Brinn's not a wolf, I still find Inzil and Lottie's votes suspect, because that essentially made the lynch between G55/Brinn

This is a good point!

For reference, here is the vote count (borrowed from Nog's post with the last vote added):

Lhuna -> Lhuna
Rikae -> Brinniel
G55 -> Rikae
Boro -> Pitchwife
Urwen -> G55
Pitchwife -> Brinniel 2
Kath -> G55 2
Shasta -> Pitchwife 2
Kitanna -> Pitchwife 3
Inzil -> G55 3
Lottie -> G55 4
Greenie -> Macalaure
THE Ka -> Brinniel 3
Eönwë -> Urwen
Rune -> Brinniel 4
Lommy -> G55 5
Huines -> G55 6
Legate -> Brinn 5
Macalaure -> Brinn 6
Brinniel -> G55 7
Sally -> Brinniel



One thing that I don't think people have really addressed toDay is that Pitch was seriously on the chopping block yesterDay and then managed to get taken out of the running, and a large part of that was G55 becoming an eligible vote candidate due to Zil and Lottie.

As a side note, come to think of it, Boro writing the above post and not mentioning this specifically when Pitch was the only viable non-Brinn vote-candidate at the time, while also voting for Pitch and not including the full vote-list (and thus leaving others to find out for themselves) could suggest a potential arms-length Boro-Pitch Infector pairing, which is an interesting idea that I'm going to have to look into.

On the other hand, while I'm sure there are wolves hiding in both the late Brinn and G55 votes, I think some of the earlier votes look like they could also be interesting (for example Shasta and Kitanna's Pitch-waggon that temporarily made Pitch the most-voted), but I will need to look at them more closely when I have time.

However, if Brinn does turn out to be a wolf, THE Ka and Legate are potential candidates for treading the (Infector-y) just-risky-enough-to-not-seem-throwaway-but-not-directly-leading-to-packmate-being-quarantined vote line.

Maybe I'm just paranoid and seeing possible wolf-groups everywhere, but after their coordinated votes yesterDay and this post:

I think perhaps Kitanna is my best read at the moment. I had fundamentally the same reaction to G55's eleventh-hour Ranger claim as she did.

I can't help wondering if Shasta and Kitanna aren't an Infector duo being too obvious and just messing with us (though whether this would make Brinn more likely to be an Infector or someone they're trying to frame is up in the air).

In the first post, I mention that those two voting for a third when there were already two with 2 votes each bore more looking at and the next post was based on that.

Then, after sleeping for a night, seeing the next page being full of discussion about Kit, I was thinking about how bad Zil bringing up Kit felt to me (and everyone else seemingly), and decided to look at different people's reactions to the discussion. And Shasta seemed to the clearest case of someone trying to suppress the discussion about the Ranger while also trying to distance Kit from the role/make it seem like a foregone conclusion that Kit was the Ranger.


Now that the Ranger discussion has been brought out into the public, I have to say that this post makes me feel better about Shasta:

I think perhaps Kitanna is my best read at the moment. I had fundamentally the same reaction to G55's eleventh-hour Ranger claim as she did.

I know last time I said that it is possible that they are both wolves being cheeky, but it does seem more likely that he was, at least in that instance, trying to bury this discussion by pointing to Kit's post as something anyone might say. Again, it is possible that they are being very bold wolves, but generally, it seems risky to attach so closely to another wolf especially when you've voted in the same way. So whoever Shasta thinks the Ranger is, I think he is trying to protect them here by trying to suppress this discussion that has just been blown open (luckily not enough for any reveals to occur). Thus doesn't necessarily say anything about Kit's role, or even what Shasta thinks about Kit's role - whether he believes/believed that she is a gifted, ordo, or wolf, discussion of the Ranger is dangerous for the real Ranger.

Specifically, I was moving the discussion from Kit to people's interaction with the conversation, and note that I specifically mentioned that she could still be other roles, which was certainly possible - a number of people toDay have confirmed (or at least claimed) that they didn't think she was really the Ranger.

Also, you should note that (at least as far as I can tell when looking back), I was the one who originally brought up that Shasta looked better for this - Lottie was the one who agreed with me. So that was a false statement.

On the other hand, you posted this:
Ok I wasn't going to say anything about The Kit Thing but seeing as it's being openly discussed - *glares at certain people* -
Could the people who are still putting Kit in the 'slightly/fairly' suspicious category please explain to me - how would a Kitwolf know G55 was lying about being a Ranger? All a Kitwolf would know was that G55 was not a wolf.

While it may have been obvious to you that Kit was the Ranger, clearly it wasn't a foregone conclusion to others, and therefore it seems reasonable that people (innocent people that is) would either still suspect her, of if they really did believe her, would want to muddy the waters a bit. I still think those who act like everyone should have just accepted that Kit had outed herself are suspicious.


edit: grammar

[satansaloser2005]

To be honest if this is the way of the winds blowing between these two, as I wondered in post #662 to Sally and Zil, I’d rather vote for Sally if anything to see how fellow packmates will consolidate. Truth aside, because we have no iron clad proof, Sally at the end of yesterDay and throughout toDay has garnered more open suspicion to me than Zil.

Bolding mine. This strikes me hard as another way of saying, "It'll be far easier to lynch Sally than Dun, so I'm going for it."

Assuming my previous post is statistically accurate and Dun and I are both innocent (which I can by no means prove), this would make Ka look very guilty indeed.

That said, Ka has RL going on today (my condolences, darling), so I'm hesitant to throw a vote her way right now for meta reasons.


x'd with Steve

[Loslote]

I enjoy how people are saying, "So if I have to choose between Dun and Sally...."

I would be willing to vote for either of you toDay - just based on the timing of your votes yesterDay, I think you have to consider it - but I would almost rather vote Boro. His vote was very similar, timing wise, to yours, and I have a bad feeling about him in general. Also, I think he has more ties to other players than Sally, and I think Zil has been so suspected for so long that, if he is a wolf, his packmates aren't going to allow themselves to be tied to him, so I think we would learn more from quarantining Boro. Boro would be my first choice, followed closely by Zil, then Sally third.

[satansaloser2005]

As a RL note, I'll be painting the interior of my house today, but I've set an alarm so I remember to come back and vote. I'm hoping I can stick around long enough (before my fabulous helper friends get here) to see the dead thread vote and react to it.

[Eönwë]

Eönwë - I did consider it very likely that there isn't much wolf-on-wolf in the Huinewagon, but I wasn't as adamant about it as you claim. And if you read my subsequent post where I analysed the votes, I actually do point out which Huine votes look the most wolf-on-wolf to me (Brinn and especially Lalaith). That being said, I absolutely stand with my assesment that when we have evidence of people having voted in way that prevents a wolf lynch (again, slightly dependent on Mac's role though), I don't think we should focus on those who did the opposite. I'm not for giving the Huine voters a pass idefinitely, but I am giving them a pass for toDay. And those whose vote was particularly unwolfily placed, probably for a few more Days than that. I would advise you to do the same. There are a lot of people in this village and to a degree, you've got to pick who you focus on.

Maybe I made it sounds slightly stronger than it was, but this does seem pretty strong:
I don't really see basically any reason for a wolf to vote Huin (except possibly something like the second vote if it looked like it wouldn't gain momentum? I need to have a better look how did it actually go) - I mean it would have been an absolutely unnecessary sacrifice from their pov. Even if Mac is a wolf too, he was surely the more expendable one out of the two with the amount of suspicion he'd garnered, while Huin had largely slipped unnoticed until the last minute bandwagon.

And my point wasn't that you never considered the others, only that in your first post of the Day you made it sound very unlikely. And your post was the third of the Day, so it has a strong impact on the direction of the Day's conversation.

[Nogrod]

The Quarantine Thread has voted. They vote...

++ Brinniel



Votes thus far (two hours before the DL)

THE Ka -> Sally
QT -> Brinn

[satansaloser2005]

I don't know what I expected.

That makes me want us to leave Brinn alone for toDay, not that I was keen to vote her right now anyway.

[Loslote]

Huh. QT votes for Brinn again. Do they actually want Brinn lynched, or are they repeating yesterDay's vote as a way to refuse to give us anything from Huin to guess about?

[A Little Green]

I enjoy how people are saying, "So if I have to choose between Dun and Sally...."

You realize it's pretty likely neither of us are wolves, right?Likely how? Do you mean just in terms of statistics and wolf-villager ratio, or do you mean that you and Inzil in particular are likely innocents? If so, it's fair enough that you say this of yourself, but I'd like to hear why Inzil is an unlikely wolf.

I would be willing to vote for either of you toDay - just based on the timing of your votes yesterDay, I think you have to consider it - but I would almost rather vote Boro. His vote was very similar, timing wise, to yours, and I have a bad feeling about him in general. Also, I think he has more ties to other players than Sally, and I think Zil has been so suspected for so long that, if he is a wolf, his packmates aren't going to allow themselves to be tied to him, so I think we would learn more from quarantining Boro. Boro would be my first choice, followed closely by Zil, then Sally third.I wouldn't mind any of these three. Initially I'd have said Inzil or Sally, but I've realised I haven't looked at Boro nearly closely enough. I was hoping to have time to reread him today, but I'm running out of time. So I'd say same trio but reverse order?

[satansaloser2005]

For Greenie: I just mean mathematically speaking. I honestly don't know how I feel about Dun.

I must paint! Back soon.

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

Hi just letting you know that I am around, but I am not yet caught up with events. I have about 63 posts to go through.

[A Little Green]

Huh. QT votes for Brinn again. Do they actually want Brinn lynched, or are they repeating yesterDay's vote as a way to refuse to give us anything from Huin to guess about?Possible - this is certainly about as little new content as they could have given us. I don't think we can deduce anything regarding Brinn's role from this though, as this would have been a fairly smart move from Huin and G55 regardless of whether Brinn is on their side or not.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Sally feels scrambly here.

I also don't get why people keep bringing up talking about Kit being the Ranger as a reason to call someone evil. It doesn't make sense - if you're a wolf, and you think someone's the Ranger, you just kill them in the night. If you're an innocent, and you think someone's the Ranger, you don't talk about it either. You only do it if you're the Cobbler wanting to point it out to the wolves, and the Cobbler is dead.

[Pitchwife]

Ka, I'm sorry for your loss.



The Quarantine Thread has voted. They vote...

++ Brinniel
Are they going to do that for the rest of the game? Boring.


I find it hard to reconcile Lottie's backing off of Mac and adding a fourth wheel to the Huiwagon with wolvishness. Also, would Hui have soft-suspected two of his packmates explicitly in connection with each other? I don't think so. I'm still leaning more towards Zil.

[satansaloser2005]

I also don't get why people keep bringing up talking about Kit being the Ranger as a reason to call someone evil. It doesn't make sense - if you're a wolf, and you think someone's the Ranger, you just kill them in the night. If you're an innocent, and you think someone's the Ranger, you don't talk about it either. You only do it if you're the Cobbler wanting to point it out to the wolves, and the Cobbler is dead.

YES. THANK YOU.

I mean, it's super not ideal, but there are other things that imply guilt, so quit focusing on the one thing almost everyone did wrong. :rolleyes:


x'd with Pitch

[Inziladun]

That makes me want us to leave Brinn alone for toDay, not that I was keen to vote her right now anyway.

Huh. QT votes for Brinn again. Do they actually want Brinn lynched, or are they repeating yesterDay's vote as a way to refuse to give us anything from Huin to guess about?

There's no way to know. Brinn could easily be a wolf they're voting for just because they know we won't trust the QT.

[Inziladun]

There's no way to know. Brinn could easily be a wolf they're voting for just because they know we won't trust the QT.

Then again, they would only do that if they were pretty certain Brinn wouldn't be a viable candidate. That's why the QT DL really blunts their power.

[satansaloser2005]

Then again, they would only do that if they were pretty certain Brinn wouldn't be a viable candidate. That's why the QT DL really blunts their power.

It's also an even split over there right now, so who knows who chose Brinn as a candidate.

[Pitchwife]

Then again, they would only do that if they were pretty certain Brinn wouldn't be a viable candidate. That's why the QT DL really blunts their power.
Right. Even if they use the vote to mess with us, they still need to take into account that it counts in the tally and can get the target lynched.

[Eönwë]

I also don't get why people keep bringing up talking about Kit being the Ranger as a reason to call someone evil. It doesn't make sense - if you're a wolf, and you think someone's the Ranger, you just kill them in the night. If you're an innocent, and you think someone's the Ranger, you don't talk about it either. You only do it if you're the Cobbler wanting to point it out to the wolves, and the Cobbler is dead.

For my part, I think bringing it up yesterDay while Kit was still alive was based wolfy logic - if you're a wolf, you know who your packmates are, so you know that Kit either is a Ranger or an innocent who said something weird/is planning for a potential fake-reveal for some complicated plan. If you're an innocent, you're more suspicious of everyone and thus you might be less inclined to accept it as 100% truth.

So if you're a wolf, looking at those who are avoiding what seems obvious to you is low-hanging fruit for manufacturing suspicion. But there is no reason for an innocent to suspect that a wolf that believes that Kit is the Ranger is going have her as suspicious if they're just going to kill her in the Night, especially given that (IIRC) no-one had Kit as their main suspect, so it didn't look like they were going for a lynch either.

To summarise: it makes sense for innocents to not want to just immediately (and definitely not publicly) accept Kit as the Ranger, so I'm wary of those that suspected people for not doing so yesterDay, especially since I think wolves are more likely to have the thought process that leads to that seeming like something that could be suspicious (and therefore good for manufacturing fake suspicions).

[Eönwë]

My suspicions haven't changed since my last list, so Zil, Boro, and Sally are my top choices, followed by Lommy and Lalaith.

Since I have to go now, I worry that if I leave, there might be a bandwaggon for someone I don't think is evil, so, let's make this a thing:

++Sally

[Boromir88]

Boro (because I'll never trust him again after the last game and I just remembered this last night :p)


No worries, I get it. I don't radiate trust that often. I've learned to live with it. I'm surprised Shasta still talks to me. :p



Non Mac/Huey voters

Kath ---> Inzil

Doesn't strike me as suspicious. Said she had to vote early and gave the reason in #427 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=723720&postcount=429). Checks out.

Lhuna ---> Lommy

Seemed like a throw away. I still can't find the reasons for her suspicions and vote. Other than Lommy saying, if the wolves were trying to orchestrate an innocent lynch Day 1, it could have very well been for G55, because wolves would know she's not one of them. Lhuna calls it:

You would know, wouldn't you. Wicked. Tricksy. False.

And then in her vote for Lommy, doesn't give us anything except the weird parting shot. As far as "throw away" votes. Highly suspicious.


Mac ----> Lommy (2)

Mac sort of admits it's a throw away, but just because it was him who voted for Lommy, which ensures no one else would. He adds that he voted early because he was annoyed by people talking like he was going to hold his vote to save himself.

He made that vote before any one voted for Huey, or really even brought up voting for Huey. Mac was yesterday's news (no offense) and a lot of those questions, for myself, have been adequately answered. Are you glad we didn't have to autopsy you to find the answers? If you're upset I still have the butter. :D

Rune ----> Lottie

Can't get a good read on this vote. Looks like he's following his suspicions. At one point, before it became Huey's, it could have been Lottie's name alongside Mac's so I don't sense that Rune was throwing away his vote to avoid and keep away from Mac/Huey. Overall, I like the fact that he's asking people about their own suspicions. Could be a wolf-tactic, but he's being very direct and open about it.

There's more suspicious looking votes.

THE Ka----> Lottie (2)

Ka's vote made it Mac - 3, Huey - 2, Lottie - 2. It does look like a prime spot for a wolf to put in her vote to try to help Huey. Her suspicion of Lottie didn't come from nowhere, but just on general comments from other people (sally and Inzil who wound up voting for Mac) Lottie's name could have been there next to Mac's, instead of Huey's.

Vote placement is suspicious and looks like an attempt to help Huey. I haven't really been looking at Ka, beyond her posts feeling reasonable. I shall do so now.

After Ka's vote, everyone was either Huey or Mac.

Edit: crossed with everyone since the QT Vote. Shocker. *rollseyes*

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Back!

Huh. QT votes for Brinn again. Do they actually want Brinn lynched, or are they repeating yesterDay's vote as a way to refuse to give us anything from Huin to guess about?
I think they are doing this to give us no info, plus potentially even discourage us from it (depending what Brinn is). Anyway, clearly messing with us in some way, that's for sure.

I don't know what I expected.

That makes me want us to leave Brinn alone for toDay, not that I was keen to vote her right now anyway.
Breeeeep. Disagreed. I'd almost be tempted to shove it in the QT's face and vote her. But let's think about this for a sec.

There's no way to know. Brinn could easily be a wolf they're voting for just because they know we won't trust the QT.
Yes, this is one, fairly plausible, option, in my opinion.

EDIT: x-ed since what I quoted

[Kath]

I won't be back now until deadline, and I still find Inzil the most suspicious based on what I said in my earlier post so:

++INZIL

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Also a quick list I made for myself just before I came back here:

Wary of:
Greenie
Lhuna
Inzil
Boro
Brinniel
Eönwë

Thought guilty earlier but think better now:
Lottie

Flip-floppy about:

Thinlómien
Sally
Lalaith
Macalaure

Nothing particular on:
Pitchwife
THE Ka

Feeling good about:
Kath
Shasta
Rune

[A Little Green]

Past bedtime for me I'm afraid.

As mentioned before, debating between Inzil and Sally - finding out Inzil's role would tell us more, but I'm slightly more certain about Sally whose behaviour today has looked, to use Shasta's word, much too scrambly for an innocent Sally with an unfortunate but accidental vote placement the Day before. Wouldn't be averse to lynching Boro either but haven't really had a good enough look at him to be sure, and also curious about Lhuna and Lommy and still not discounting Mac or Brinn but leaving them alone for now as there are stronger cases against the aforementioned others. At the time of writing this the tally looks like 1 for Sally and 1 for Brinn from the Cuties. Might as well go with -

++ Sally

Goodnight!

[Thinlómien]

Ka, I'm so sorry <3 Please do what feels best for you, don't worry about us. Whatever your role, it's not more important than real life. We will survive without you or without your super involved participation. Sending lots of hugs your way.

~*~

Not buying Sally's theatrics.

You realize it's pretty likely neither of us are wolves, right?It is possible but why is it *likely*, Sally? Even if you were innocent yourself, you should have no idea about Zil. Addendum: oh, so this is just about maths? Not a very strong argument, given that maths doesn't take into account that you both voted to save a known wolf.

I suggest we ignore the QT vote. I think voting Brinn is a way to mislead us - by voting the same person as before a wolf joined their ranks, they're doing their best to refuse to give us new information.

I also don't get why people keep bringing up talking about Kit being the Ranger as a reason to call someone evil. It doesn't make sense - if you're a wolf, and you think someone's the Ranger, you just kill them in the night. If you're an innocent, and you think someone's the Ranger, you don't talk about it either. You only do it if you're the Cobbler wanting to point it out to the wolves, and the Cobbler is dead.Thank you, this is what I've been trying to say. Probably the Kit discussion was abunch of innocents and wolves who weren't thinking through their actions and it. would. once. again. make. more. sense. to. look. at. yesterDay's. lynch. which. involved. a. known. wolf. thnx.

I'm not sure why Boro calls the votes against me throwaway. Might I remind you I was the first one to get two votes? It could have developed into a bandwagon. It didn't. Some food for thought, if I may say so myself.


edit: xed with Greenie

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

It's also an even split over there right now, so who knows who chose Brinn as a candidate.

That's also a good point.

As for my vote, I would perhaps prefer something like either Brinn, Boro or Eönwë. Kinda switching between reasons for each.

EDIT: x-ed with Greenie and Lommy

[Thinlómien]

++Sally

THE Ka -> Sally
QT -> Brinn
Eönwë -> Sally 2
Kath -> Inzil
Greenie -> Sally 3
Lommy -> Sally 4

I'm 90% sure she's a wolf after the latest drama she tried to pull, so why not give her a headstart when I'm not half as convinced about anyone else.

[Pitchwife]

I'm looking through Lottie's posts of toDay and just read this:
What an opening post. :eek: I am a little surprised that with all those quoted posts, your only actual comments are that Pitch and I are still suspicious...despite voting for a wolf at a pivotal moment...with no mention of the people whose votes might have worked to save Huin, which in my opinion, is a far more suspicious group of people. And which happens to include you.
So Zil explains why he didn't want to vote Hui because he mistrusted Lottie and me, and Lottie all but goes up in flames saying "How dare you still suspect us when we lynched a wolf?" When he actually hadn't said anything about whether he still suspected us or not. Then follows it up with this:

I broke yesterDay's voters into six groups, as follows, and I personally think those groups say a lot. Could there have been wolf on wolf? Absolutely, but I think you can still say that the people who really swung the vote Huin's way look pretty good.

Voted Huin early
Legate
Kitanna
Pitchwife
Lottie

I would say this group looks pretty decent. Why start up a whole bandwagon and encourage it if you don't have to?
Now this kind of self-gratulation irks me. If you help lynch a wolf and people think you look good for it, you gratefully accept that, but you don't use your vote to exonerate yourself and say you look good for it, because that makes it seem that the vote was, well, calculated to be used this way.

[Boromir88]

I'm not sure why Boro calls the votes against me throwaway. Might I remind you I was the first one to get two votes? It could have developed into a bandwagon. It didn't. Some food for thought, if I may say so myself.


It was me being sarcastic with Mac saying, no one else would follow because it came from him:

Lommy makes more sense at this point for obvious reasons. The mere fact that I voted for her probably makes it unlikely for her to gather any additional votes.~Mac

And well he was correct.

Edit: And now I read Ka's post. So, sorry to hear that :(. Hope you got some joy from being able to come back, but don't feel bad. We'll manage.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Okay, one thing is (nearly?) for sure - the votes in Sallywagon can't all come from Wolves. (I mean technically... that would be super bold... but probably they wouldn't yet do something like that! Besides if it was these four, then they'd have no reason to.)

[Lalaith]

also don't get why people keep bringing up talking about Kit being the Ranger as a reason to call someone evil. It doesn't make sense - if you're a wolf, and you think someone's the Ranger, you just kill them in the night. If you're an innocent, and you think someone's the Ranger, you don't talk about it either. You only do it if you're the Cobbler wanting to point it out to the wolves, and the Cobbler is dead.

Wolves like confusing the village just as much as cobblers do.