Tol-in-Gaurhoth CXIV – The Evil Breath of Morgoth in Dor-lómin, game thread

[Nogrod]

“In the four hundred and sixty-ninth year after the return of the Noldor to Middle-Earth there was a stirring hope among elves and men; for the rumour ran among them of the deeds of Beren and Lúthien, and the putting to shame of Morgoth even upon his throne in Angband, and some said that Beren and Lúthien yet lived, or had returned from the Dead. In that year also the great counsels of Maedhros were almost complete, and with the reviving strength of the Eldar and the Edain the advance of Morgoth was stayed, and the Orcs were driven back from Beleriand. Then some began to speak of victories to come, and of redressing the Battle of the Bragollach, when Maedhros should lead forth the united hosts, and drive Morgoth underground and seal the Doors of Angband.

But the wiser were uneasy still, fearing that Maedhros revealed his growing strength too soon, and that Morgoth would be given time enough to counsel against him. “Ever will some new evil be hatched in Angband beyond the guess of elves and men”, they said. And in the autumn of that year, to point their words, there came an ill wind from the North under leaden skies. The Evil Breath it was called, for it was pestilent; and many sickened and died in the fall of the year in the northern lands that bordered on the Anfauglith.

In that year Túrin son of Húrin was yet only five years old, and Urwen his sister was three in the beginning of spring. […] Before the year was out […] the Evil Breath came to Dor-lómin.”


J.R.R. Tolkien: "The Children of Húrin"

[Nogrod]

Interlude, or a second Preface

Legends about the horrors of the Evil Breath spread fast before the wind itself. It surely was a most terrifying foe, only an endlessly dark mind like Morgoth’s could come up with. You couldn’t see it or touch it, you couldn’t smell it or taste it. Unlike orcs it didn’t bow to steel or stop with an arrow. No one knew where it was or what it was, but you could figure out its path where people suddenly dropped down sweating in sudden high fever and pain, having problems to breathe – and usually withering away in a few days.

Making things worse, there was no medicine that seemed to cure it. What followed was considered by many even more horrifying: the people infected had to be left on their own. There was to be no soothing of the sick and dying. The ill were left to face their agony and oftentimes imminent death alone, separated from their families and friends. It was pure cruelty.


~*~


As said earlier, before the outbreak of the Evil Breath things had looked much brighter. Late 469 F.A. the talk of the united hosts rising against Angband together had changed from vain hopes and empty bragging into some real negotiations between the different parties. And so it was that after promising to join the union of Maedhros, old Halmir, the Lord of the people of Haleth, was on a tour to meet his kin and other allies to discuss how to prepare for the coming war. The most important meeting for him was to discuss with brothers Húrin and Huor, the two great sons of Galdor the Tall.

They had agreed to have a counsel at Húrin’s village when autumn would start to turn into winter. That was settled long before there were any signs of what was to come and threaten the lands beneath Anfaughlith. When the news of this new evil finally started to spread autumn was already waning and Halmir had already set on his journey. When the stories reached these travelers on the road, it was too late to turn back.

Huor had suggested Halmir that they’d meet at the next village east from Húrin’s as he would be there before the counsel, just to settle some land-issues and aid in various defensive projects in the village. But instead of a celebration and a happy family-reunion by the fireside, the travelers met a grim and emptying village. Huor and his company had decided to stay and wait for Halmir as there were fresh rumours that Huor’s village was suffering a major outbreak of Morgoth’s Breath. It would have been too risky to try and reach home.

After a joyless and cold lunch under the empty roof of the chieftain’s house, the six travelers quietly saddled their horses. It was around midday when they headed west in the falling rain under the leaden skies, but there was no way of telling it was daytime, for it was dim and dusk like twilight.

[Nogrod]

There had been rumours of the Evil Breath of Morgoth wrecking whole villages in Doriath and Brethil, and it was generally considered just a matter of time when it would enter Hithlum. Most villages introduced quickly strict “no-strangers” -policies to ward the ill wind off. With heavy hearts village after village shut their gates from desperate refugees, their fellow men running away from the Evil Breath. But even that didn’t seem to stop the outbreak.

There had been no infections in Húrin’s village thus far, but latest rumours had it, that even Huor’s village had not only shut its gates, but was under a vicious attack by Morgoth’s Breath. And now there were these dear members of the family and beloved kin at the gates asking to be let in. How do you deny your brother and mother safety? How do you deny your foster-parents? Húrin was wrestling with the decision.

Morwen was stern as ever and reminded her husband that as a warden of his people he was responsible for their lives – and his childrens’ lives. Húrin understood this well but was torn inside: what if they were healthy and he sent them to their deaths by denying them entrance? Didn’t Halmir say they had avoided any other refugees the last days they had seen them on the roads? Was he going to make an exception for his close relatives while coolly turning away other kinsmen in need of help? He knew what Turgon would do, but well, that was different.

So it was, that in the end he couldn’t deny his heart – and he ordered the gates to be opened. There were tears of both joy and angst in their eyes when they embraced, but some of the villagers were looking at it in fear, some cursing under their brows.

Even if the village of Húrin had been spared thus far, the villagers had gotten to bed uneasy for several nights already. Tonight, even those who had not yet given up to fear were troubled.


So good Night little Villagers. Let’s see what the rising winter sun brings with it.


Dramatis Personae

Húrin, of the House of Hador, master of Dor-lómin
Morwen Eledhwen, of the House of Bëor
Túrin, their son, 5-years old
Urwen “Lalaith”, their daughter, 3-years old

Ragnir, Húrin’s blind servant
Túrin’s nurse
Sador “Labadal”, Húrin’s one-legged woodwright

Aerin, a kinswoman of Húrin
Indor, Aerin’s father

Gethron, valiant old man
Grithnir, valiant old man
Asgon, strong and hardy villager
Andróg, hard-hearted man
Algund, an old warrior
Forweg, big and bold man

Old Halmir, of the House of Haleth, Warden of the Haladin
Haldir, the heir of Halmir, chieftain of the Haladin
Glóredhel, of the House of Hador, Haldir’s wife
Brandir – Haldir’s and Glóredhel’s grandson, fosterchild in Húrin’s house

Hareth, of the house of Haleth, Húrin’s & Huor’s mom, Haldir’s sister
Huor, brother of Húrin
Rían, of the House of Bëor, wife of Huor


NB. There will be a list of all the players in the start of Day1 – and after that. This seemed just a right place to bring all the characters of the story to this Thread.

PS. Sorry this is a few minutes late. I was too busy sending off roles... and I'll still have a lot of them to deal so don't worry if you haven't gotten one yet. A moment.

[Nogrod]

To their horror, the villagers found “the Badger”, a venerable old veteran of Dagor Bragollach and former bannerman of Hador Lórindol, dead from his lonely hut beside the gates. He had received that nickname from Hador himself who dearly loved his aid: for he was well known for his badgerlike build and perseverance, and on top of that, he’d had grey stripes in his hair already at young age.

“Oh, good old Badger”, Algund sighed.

“The lines are getting thinner…” murmured Grithnir.

”The Evil Breath is here”, stated Ragnir matter-of-factly.

”May it have been just the years that finally reached him?” Aerin asked. She looked tentatively around her: “I mean he sure was an old and fragile man.”

“You’re right kinswoman. We’re all getting a bit jumpy.” Hareth said steadying her voice. “Let us not allow the fear to enter our minds”.


“No Urwen, no!”, yelled Morwen suddenly and reached for her daughter who had just leapt forwards curious to see, what was it with the old man that they had all had to gather at his cottage for. Morwen held her in mid-dash and embraced her tightly. “My dear Lalaith, old Badger is no more. We should not go close to him, for he’s…”

“He is dead. Not sick.” Forweg put in, in his bold manner.

There was an uneasy silence.


“Yes, but we should all leave this house, just to be on the safe side.” said Sador finally.

“I say we burn it down.” added Indor.

“We’ll need to decide what to do with old Badger’s body and this hut, but first we need to try and find out, if anyone is actually infected. All those infected must be quarantined, for the sake of all others.” said Húrin, glancing at his wife.

“Are we going to exam also all the fancy folk, or is the quarantine only for us ordinary people?”, asked Andróg mockingly.

“This applies to everyone. You can start the examinations from me and my wife.” said Huor firmly. “There should be no exceptions.”

Túrin pulled his father’s sleeve: “Father, what does ‘ekzami… exameaning’ mean?”

“In this case?” Húrin turned to him and gave a pause. “I don’t know, my son… I really don’t know.”


~*~


Dead, yeas dead

Nogrod – “The Badger”, Mod (dead on Night1)


Hanging around

Thinlómien
Legate of Amon Lanc
Huinesoron
Loslote
Pitchwife
Kath
Galadriel55
Lhunardawen
Inziladun
Kitanna
A Little Green
Boromir88
Urwen
Lalaith
Brinniel
Eönwë
Macalaure
Rikae
Rune Son of Bjarne
THE Ka
Satansaloser2005
Shastanis Althreduin


It is Day1

Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.

[Huinesoron]

So was that a coincidence, or did we just overload the Downs by all refreshing at once? :O

Oh no: not the Badger! Still, I've heard good things about this 'quarantine' technique, so hopefully he will be the last death this village sees. Double-hopefully, we can quarantine the ones who've brought this evil on us quickly, and restore health and prosperity not just here, but in all Dor-lomin.

I really wish I could stick around and tug any loose threads that show up in the early discussion, but unfortunately deadline pretty much = bedtime for me. Should give me lots to sift through in the morning, and maybe an unspoilt overview will be just the thing to spot an incautious Infector.

(Tell you what, I can't help wondering how some of these roles 'work' in the setting. I picture Baby Turin pointing at someone and yelling 'if they lock me up I'm coughing all over you!'. Possibly I spend too much time around small children. Grabby U/L and 'ekzami' certainly sound strikingly familiar. :) )

... okay, I had to try three times to type 'ezkami' right; I think I might be tired. See you all in the morning!

hS

[Inziladun]

Alas, for the old Badger, and for us all!

May nothing fair and peaceful be left to its own comfort in these evil days? Would that we had the life of the Eldar, that no sickness should bite us.

To the matter in hand, how do we say who is the next to carry the malady? If we wait to see symptoms, it could be already too late. Yet, what other way have we to take action?

x/d with Huey

[Pitchwife]

Aaaand here we go again!:D


Let's see: village of 22, five of which are infectors. One out of four. Every fourth person. Starting from the top, and excluding myself, that's Lottie, Zil, Urwen (:eek:), Mac and Sally. There, case closed.:p


Also, out of the next four people posting after me, one is bound to be an infector, right?

[Inziladun]

So was that a coincidence, or did we just overload the Downs by all refreshing at once? :O

Hmm? :confused:

Let's see: village of 22, five of which are infectors. One out of four. Every fourth person. Starting from the top, and excluding myself, that's Lottie, Zil, Urwen (:eek:), Mac and Sally. There, case closed.:p

Also, out of the next four people posting after me, one is bound to be an infector, right?

Yes! You've already cracked the puzzle.

[Loslote]

Let's see: village of 22, five of which are infectors. One out of four. Every fourth person. Starting from the top, and excluding myself, that's Lottie, Zil, Urwen (:eek:), Mac and Sally. There, case closed.:p


Also, out of the next four people posting after me, one is bound to be an infector, right?

Well here I am the fourth to post...already one of us must be infected! :eek:

[Pitchwife]

Or two, maybe? Zil has already as good as pleaded guilty - would you like to follow suit?

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Let's see: village of 22, five of which are infectors. One out of four. Every fourth person. Starting from the top, and excluding myself, that's Lottie, Zil, Urwen (:eek:), Mac and Sally. There, case closed.:p

That was very fast, dear sir! Well, I mean, in these numbers, you may be on to something... but of course I would not exclude you from this. Ha! Anyone could say that! And more importantly, did you wash your hands? I have heard that Morgoth's Breath is contained the best... by... washing hands... okay okay, that sounds weird, I admit. Maybe by not breathing, then. In fact, a wise friend of mine said that if you hold your breath - like thus -------- and you don't start coughing, you are probably healthy. There! If everyone does this, case solved.

Can I also say that no matter the grave circumstances, it is wonderful to see you all again, kinspeople?

EDIT: x-ed with Zil, Lottie and Pitchwife

[Loslote]

Or two, maybe? Zil has already as good as pleaded guilty - would you like to follow suit?

Goodness no. I have been washing my hands so often you can smell the soap from across the village, I assure you!

[Urwen]

Checking in.

Maeglin: Why did you bring me? I am not a part of this game.
Me: True, but I hope your sharp eyes will help me spot the wolves.
Maeglin: Ah, that makes sense.

[Inziladun]

Can I also say that no matter the grave circumstances, it is wonderful to see you all again, kinspeople?

Seconded with sincerity.

Who's this Maeglin anyways?

x/d with Urwen

[Pitchwife]

That was very fast, dear sir! Well, I mean, in these numbers, you may be on to something... but of course I would not exclude you from this.

I certainly wouldn't expect you to.

And more importantly, did you wash your hands?
As can be learned from the works of the great forensic surgeon Pontiius Pilate, washing your hands isn't all it's cracked up to be.

Can I also say that no matter the grave circumstances, it is wonderful to see you all again, kinspeople?
This!

[Thinlómien]

Poor Badger! But all the more joy to the rest of us who can sit down together for a cup of herbal tea and solve his murder, right? *cracks knuckles* (Oh god it's been LONG and I absolutely love being here. :D)

I have heard that Morgoth's Breath is contained the best... by... washing hands... okay okay, that sounds weird, I admit. Maybe by not breathing, then.What, are you suggesting we commit mass suicide? A very... cobbleresque suggestion :p


edit: xed with Pitchwife - and I have no idea what's Pontius Pilate got to do with all this :D

[Loslote]

Can I also say that no matter the grave circumstances, it is wonderful to see you all again, kinspeople?

Wholeheartedly agree. :D

[Pitchwife]

edit: xed with Pitchwife - and I have no idea what's Pontius Pilate got to do with all this :D
Easy: he demonstrated that washing your hands is no sign of innocence.

[Inziladun]

As can be learned from the works of the great forensic surgeon Pontiius Pilate, washing your hands isn't all it's cracked up to be.

Well, it depends on why one is washing hands!

[Loslote]

Easy: he demonstrated that washing your hands is no sign of innocence.

And unfortunately, we seem to have used up the village's supply of soap that was meant to last all year in just one night...we'll have to come up with another way to measuring guilt!

[Galadriel55]

What, are you suggesting we commit mass suicide? A very... cobbleresque suggestion :p

Well... I suppose, technically, if we all learn from RL examples and willingly quarantine ourselves *before* we get sick - i.e. if we all vote ourselves - the only people not to do so will be the baddies, and then Day 2 will be a breeze. Oh lord.


Aaaaand cue discussion about a no-vote Day 1!


~ With great love, as I missed you all too. :D

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Aaaaand cue discussion about a no-vote Day 1!

With creeping terror, I am starting to recall everything that is a part of being in a village like this... at least double lynches aren't possible.

[Thinlómien]

I'm predicting a somewhat chaotic game, with this large a village and deadline that should work for most of us. (Personally I'm probably almost always going to be around the dl because it's midnight in my time zone and I'm a temporarily unemployed night owl.) Like I'm imanining multiple crossposted votes in the minutes before deadline. I wanted to suggest avoiding this by consciously trying to spread the vote a little, but then again, the last minute flurry can be pretty telling afterwards. :D But in case someone is wondering, I'm not saying that toDay should amount into a shot in the dark if we can avoid it. I'm still staunchly in camp "Day1 can and does matter" and I'm watching you all. :p

Also once we have the quarantine let's just be mindful not to focus too much on speculating about that, right? Unless the first person who goes there is a wolf, it would be pretty funny to see how a known dead wolf would vote!

Which almost led me to say "hey dudes, let's lynch a wolf toDay, that would be a really good idea"... well.... surprise. ;)


edit: xed with everyone and loving this game

[Loslote]

Which almost led me to say "hey dudes, let's lynch a wolf toDay, that would be a really good idea"... well.... surprise. ;)

Yknow, I really think you're onto something here! And frankly, with five wolves, I don't think we can afford not to try to lynch one Day 1.

[Inziladun]

With creeping terror, I am starting to recall everything that is a part of being in a village like this... at least double lynches aren't possible.

The sheer number of players will play havoc with my ADHD. ;)

Also once we have the quarantine let's just be mindful not to focus too much on speculating about that, right? Unless the first person who goes there is a wolf, it would be pretty funny to see how a known dead wolf would vote!

Speculating on what those there are doing? No point. It's difficult (though not impossible!) to see a wolf being the first gone, but if that happened it could be useful.

Which almost led me to say "hey dudes, let's lynch a wolf toDay, that would be a really good idea"... well.... surprise. ;)


Wolf! Woolf! :p

x/d with Lottie

[Galadriel55]

With creeping terror, I am starting to recall everything that is a part of being in a village like this... at least double lynches aren't possible.

Lol. :D Though this made me think: why didn't the No Lynch debate ever bring up fake votes? Like each person says who they would vote for, but not actually vote. So you have a tally, but no lynch.

See, it takes some distance (of a few years! :eek:) to move an idea forward! :p

Yknow, I really think you're onto something here! And frankly, with five wolves, I don't think we can afford not to try to lynch one Day 1.

Yeah, but on the flip side with 5 wolves it should be so much easier statistically. A 1/4 chance that only grows with each innocent death. I'm not sure if the bigger numbers are in fact a hindrance to the Wolves rather than a help. *rubs hands eagerly*


Edit: crossed with Zil

[Thinlómien]

Easy: he demonstrated that washing your hands is no sign of innocence. Well, it depends on why one is washing hands!:D:D

Aaaaand cue discussion about a no-vote Day1!Noooooooooooooooooooooooooooo!

And frankly, with five wolves, I don't think we can afford not to try to lynch one Day 1.Yeah, well, with quick maths: if the gifteds & cobbler fail to play a role, then 5 wolves still means we have to go 6 days without lynching a wolf to lose immediately. But I think if we lynch the first wolf only on Day6 we're nonetheless pretty deep in trouble. So the sooner we start mowing them down and collecting clues, the better.

Though this made me think: why didn't the No Lynch debate ever bring up fake votes? Like each person says who they would vote for, but not actually vote. So you have a tally, but no lynch.And an absolutely useless tally when no one has to put their money where their mouth is!

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

I'm predicting a somewhat chaotic game, with this large a village and deadline that should work for most of us. (Personally I'm probably almost always going to be around the dl because it's midnight in my time zone and I'm a temporarily unemployed night owl.) Like I'm imanining multiple crossposted votes in the minutes before deadline. I wanted to suggest avoiding this by consciously trying to spread the vote a little, but then again, the last minute flurry can be pretty telling afterwards. :D But in case someone is wondering, I'm not saying that toDay should amount into a shot in the dark if we can avoid it. I'm still staunchly in camp "Day1 can and does matter" and I'm watching you all. :p

You were right, that was zero content :p

But anyway, as for now... I think I might reserve making any more specific judgments for after at least majority of villagers have posted, which is incidentally a number that is... insane, because there really are so many of us. But since this will be bedtime for me soon, I expect that by the time I get up again majority will have posted. Those who are here now are fairly active already, but hey, we can't all be Wolves, right? Or... *dun dun dun dun* (No, that's not a pun on Inziladun. OR IS IT?)

That's an interesting thought anyway, given the numbers - of course statistically spread, one would imagine the WWs appearing throughout the Day gradually to post, but it may be of course that no Wolf has posted yet, or all have (much less likely). Just a sort of reminder (to myself, but of course to you too) when analysing. (This whole thing came from my musing about waiting for majority of players to post... because indeed, what if there haven't been any WWs thus far?)

Speculation mode off.

Oh look! I succesfully managed to write half a page long post about nothing. Well done, I'm back on track with playing Werewolf, it seems.

EDIT: x-ed with G55 and Lommy

[Inziladun]

Lol. :D Though this made me think: why didn't the No Lynch debate ever bring up fake votes? Like each person says who they would vote for, but not actually vote. So you have a tally, but no lynch.

No, no. We older folks don't need it more complicated. ;)

Yeah, but on the flip side with 5 wolves it should be so much easier statistically. A 1/4 chance that only grows with each innocent death. I'm not sure if the bigger numbers are in fact a hindrance to the Wolves rather than a help. *rubs hands eagerly*

You'd think higher numbers would be better, but it seldom seems to shake out that way...

x/d with Legate

[Thinlómien]

Oh look! I succesfully managed to write half a page long post about nothing. Well done, I'm back on track with playing Werewolf, it seems.:D

I think I might reserve making any more specific judgments for after at least majority of villagers have postedFishy fishy fake reasonable! :p What kind of statement is this! Who in Arda *would* judge anyone/ decide their Day1 vote based on these handful of posts???

Anyway yeah, it's getting late irl, I'm signing off now and I'll be back within 12h. Have fun and please provide me something to analyse in the "morning". :Merisu:

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Lol. :D Though this made me think: why didn't the No Lynch debate ever bring up fake votes? Like each person says who they would vote for, but not actually vote. So you have a tally, but no lynch.

Hey, THAT is actually a pretty good idea. Because seriously. It would kinda force the Wolves' hands (or tongues). I like that. I mean people can of course flip-flop later, but it isn't easy. I like it. I wholeheartedly second it. Let's do this!

(Seriously, it seems to me like something that should have come up like, years ago? :D What's wrong with people?)

And an absolutely useless tally when no one has to put their money where their mouth is!
Well one would of course expect them to do so! And anyway, things would change as people vote, but... a sort of a "dry run" would do no harm, I say.

For example by making a "fake" DL before the actual one (for instance three hours before the actual DL? Anyway some people may really vote by that time, but that doesn't harm the experiment, quite the opposite). As in (especially during later days) without knowing the QT vote. May be interesting to see then how the idea changes etc.

EDIT: x-ed since my last

[Pitchwife]

Well... I suppose, technically, if we all learn from RL examples and willingly quarantine ourselves *before* we get sick - i.e. if we all vote ourselves - the only people not to do so will be the baddies, and then Day 2 will be a breeze.
Yes. For the baddies.

Aaaaand cue discussion about a no-vote Day 1!
Please let's not.

Like I'm imanining multiple crossposted votes in the minutes before deadline. I wanted to suggest avoiding this by consciously trying to spread the vote a little, but then again, the last minute flurry can be pretty telling afterwards.
Well, since in this game the first to be tied is lynched I'd expect there to be a little less chaos in the last minutes before deadline, less people holding back their vote till the last possible second. So, hm, let me think, couldn't 'spreading the votes a little' be a safe tactic for wolves as long as there's enough votes for a non-wolf?

Which almost led me to say "hey dudes, let's lynch a wolf toDay, that would be a really good idea"... well.... surprise.
You don't say!:D

Yknow, I really think you're onto something here! And frankly, with five wolves, I don't think we can afford not to try to lynch one Day 1.
You know, if G55 hadn't brought up the topic of a no lynch D1 this would be about the most non-committal thing you could possibly say. (As in, when can we ever afford not to try to lynch a wolf?)

[Loslote]

You know, if G55 hadn't brought up the topic of a no lynch D1 this would be about the most non-committal thing you could possibly say. (As in, when can we ever afford not to try to lynch a wolf?)

I mean, you're not wrong. I didn't think G55's mentioning a no-lynch was worth strongly disagreeing with, but I did want to make it clear I was not in favor of it. I also thought that would be pretty clear in context, though maybe I underestimated Day 1 jumpiness. :p

[Inziladun]

Hey, THAT is actually a pretty good idea. Because seriously. It would kinda force the Wolves' hands (or tongues). I like that. I mean people can of course flip-flop later, but it isn't easy. I like it. I wholeheartedly second it. Let's do this!

Don't many do this anyway, as in saying whom they suspect and might vote for? And those who don't, voting quickly and seemingly haphazardly, are rightly questioned.

You know, if G55 hadn't brought up the topic of a no lynch D1 this would be about the most non-committal thing you could possibly say. (As in, when can we ever afford not to try to lynch a wolf?)

Cue my usual "a no lynch plays to the baddies" quote.

x/d with Lottie

[Brinniel]

Hey guys! I've come bearing gifts - masks, hand sanitizer, soap, and most importantly...toilet paper! Now I better see you all using these items - we wouldn't want to spread any diseases now, would we? :Merisu:

On a more serious note, I do find larger numbers to be trickier as it is easier for the baddies to hide in large groups. I expect our wolves will be a mix of quiet and more talkative folk.

Aaaaand cue discussion about a no-vote Day1!
No, no, no, no, and no. The fact that this was ever brought up in a previous game seems insane! While there is always a risk of lynching an innocent, the Day is best shot at getting a wolf. If we don't lynch anyone they likely have one up on us by the following Day.

[Kitanna]

I do hope everyone is practicing good personal hygiene. No breathing, sneezing, coughing, or otherwise expelling air into other people's faces. It's the only way to survive Morgoth's Breath from what I've heard. That and obsessively washing of the hands.

So was that a coincidence, or did we just overload the Downs by all refreshing at once? :O
Perhaps it was just you and your nefarious ways, eh? Crashing the server and whatnot. Shame.

Let's see: village of 22, five of which are infectors. One out of four. Every fourth person. Starting from the top, and excluding myself, that's Lottie, Zil, Urwen (), Mac and Sally. There, case closed.
Seems very scientific and definitely not suspicious. :rolleyes: /sarcasm

Goodness no. I have been washing my hands so often you can smell the soap from across the village, I assure you! Sounds about right...

As can be learned from the works of the great forensic surgeon Pontiius Pilate, washing your hands isn't all it's cracked up to be.
I certainly laughed extremely loud at this.

Like I'm imanining multiple crossposted votes in the minutes before deadline. Driven by you? :p

I actually agree about chaos at DL. It seems to fall at a remarkably convenient time for a lot of people and it will create a lot of fodder for the following day. So, that'll create some hilarious tension.

What kind of statement is this! Who in Arda *would* judge anyone/ decide their Day1 vote based on these handful of posts???
And yet I believe it has happened....? Misguided innocents swayed by super clever wolfsies.
I'm having flashbacks of all the brutal ways in which WW has seen me killed. I'm not at all stressed out about this game after so long. Not me. YOU'RE STRESSED OUT!!

[Pitchwife]

OK, Legate, let me ask you: What exactly do we have to gain from the kind of fake vote you're suggesting?
If it is just that, a fake vote with no real lynch as per G55, we've effectively wasted a day, nobody has to fear the consequences of their vote because without a lynch, we won't know whether they voted for an innoent or a wolf, and the wolves can go wolf-on-wolf to their hearts' content witrh no danger to any of them.
If it's just that people announce beforehand whom they are planning to vote, and the vote takes place later, and we compare what people said before to how they actually voted, how is this different from what we usually do?
This strikes me as a pseudo-useful suggestion/discussion. *ping*

[Galadriel55]

Fishy fishy fake reasonable! What kind of statement is this! Who in Arda *would* judge anyone/ decide their Day1 vote based on these handful of posts???

Well, don't you look at the whole gestalt of a person's posts before voting, including the early handful of posts (which is actually growing quite big for a handful :eek:)? Dismissing early posts because of the "nothing really happens" argument is dismissing part of the evidence.

Hey, THAT is actually a pretty good idea. Because seriously. It would kinda force the Wolves' hands (or tongues). I like that. I mean people can of course flip-flop later, but it isn't easy. I like it. I wholeheartedly second it. Let's do this!

(Seriously, it seems to me like something that should have come up like, years ago? What's wrong with people?)

Ok, cobbler much? Even I don't like my idea with so much enthusiasm. I was mainly kinda curious if that tack has ever been tried - and why not, cause it's marginally less bad than the No Votes At All camp.

But speaking of dry-runs, yeah, making people actually cast a fake vote forces them to select one person they wanna off, instead of making lists which can be quite vague. But putting a -3h deadline just adds more chaos in the last bit of the Day, don't you think?

Please let's not.

Not even for the good old times? :Merisu: Nah, I'm not actually arguing in favour of it. It just seems such an integral part of Day 1. :D

Well, since in this game the first to be tied is lynched I'd expect there to be a little less chaos in the last minutes before deadline, less people holding back their vote till the last possible second. So, hm, let me think, couldn't 'spreading the votes a little' be a safe tactic for wolves as long as there's enough votes for a non-wolf?

Ummm... Again, please? Sorry, not sure what you mean. As in spreading the votes in time? I understand how spreading the vote among multiple candidates can help the wolves pick the one they prefer to be offed, but I don't get what you're getting to here.

Hey guys! I've come bearing gifts - masks, hand sanitizer, soap, and most importantly...toilet paper! Now I better see you all using these items - we wouldn't want to spread any diseases now, would we?

Beware of Greeks bearing gifts!



Edit: crossed with Kit and Pitch

[Lhunardawen]

Checking in. My, what a noisy village this is going to be.

I'm here to represent the We Hate Day Ones club (or whatever its name ever was). And as much as I agree that with 5 wolves it is statistically more likely to lynch one on Day 1... Well, let's see what the Day brings.

Meanwhile I shall work, with my anachronistic N95 mask on and this newfangled potion called alcohol. I hope these will be enough to protect me from the Evil Breath. :eek:

(Now this, this post has no helpful content whatsoever. :p)

[Boromir88]

Gosh I missed this and echo the ensuing crazy that will take place in the cross postings and flurry voting.

I want all working theories to the table, no matter how absurd, or risky, or impossible as they might seem.

Is it even too late to go into complete isolation? Can we all just go home and take an oath to keep to ourselves? Large gatherings in an outbreak just seems completely the opposite of the right thing to do.

Then again with a deadly infection such as this, the only way to be rid of it is to kill it at the source. Healing can't take place until the source is removed and the wound sterilized. Is burning the dead body the proper thing to do? I've never been quite good at understanding the correct method of disposing the bodies of the infected. Lynching doesn't seem to be enough.

Then again, again, when has anything gone according to plan? We plan, and plan, and plan. Then 30 minutes before we're forced to decide we start a new plan and all hell breaks loose.

Edit bunch of crossposting

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Don't many do this anyway, as in saying whom they suspect and might vote for? And those who don't, voting quickly and seemingly haphazardly, are rightly questioned.
OK, Legate, let me ask you: What exactly do we have to gain from the kind of fake vote you're suggesting?
If it is just that, a fake vote with no real lynch as per G55, we've effectively wasted a day, nobody has to fear the consequences of their vote because without a lynch, we won't know whether they voted for an innoent or a wolf, and the wolves can go wolf-on-wolf to their hearts' content witrh no danger to any of them.
If it's just that people announce beforehand whom they are planning to vote, and the vote takes place later, and we compare what people said before to how they actually voted, how is this different from what we usually do?

Nobody said anything about wasting a day, or else I have grossly misread it!

The idea is this: to make people actually commit and say, by timestamp XX:YY, "I would vote for person A".

Yes, people do that. But usually, people fall into multiple categories. Some people hardly say anything about whom they would actually vote until DL. Some people have like three people they have in the "I could vote" category. That is usually a good strategy for the WWs, who then pick from their three in the last minute, ideally based on which bandwagons exist and what is convenient. The main purpose of the whole thing would be, as I said, to force the WW's hand a bit more than it is. Kind of kick people (especially WWs) into action. Force them to fabricate their accusations of others - because then they will be more easily caught on lying. Because unlike all the other villagers, they would have to lie.

Well, I thought it was a nice idea, at least. It may not be so groundbreaking. But I'd still see some merit in it.

EDIT: x-ed with G55, Lhuna and Boro

[Pitchwife]

Ummm... Again, please? Sorry, not sure what you mean. As in spreading the votes in time? I understand how spreading the vote among multiple candidates can help the wolves pick the one they prefer to be offed, but I don't get what you're getting to here.
OK, let's suppose that, say, an hour before DL there's 3 votes for an innocent, 2 for a wolf and 2 for another innocent. If the last to be tied gets quarantined, the wolves need to be on their toes till the last minute to make sure it's not one of them. If it's the first to be tied, they can spread their votes as they like and the first innocent will still be eliminated.


Beware of Greeks bearing gifts!
I would have said Romulans, but otherwise you took the words out of my mouth.

[Brinniel]

Is it even too late to go into complete isolation? Can we all just go home and take an oath to keep to ourselves? Large gatherings in an outbreak just seems completely the opposite of the right thing to do.
Yes, it seems that a large gathering is not the brightest idea, but I'm afraid it may be too late to simply go home. I hear keeping a six foot distance helps, so stand back a little further away from me, why don't you. :p

Then again, again, when has anything gone according to plan? We plan, and plan, and plan. Then 30 minutes before we're forced to decide we start a new plan and all hell breaks loose.
True, true. Things never do seem to go according to plan around here. And then the ones who don't follow the plan become lynch fodder the next Day and more often than not turn out to be innocent.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Ok, cobbler much? Even I don't like my idea with so much enthusiasm. I was mainly kinda curious if that tack has ever been tried - and why not, cause it's marginally less bad than the No Votes At All camp.

But speaking of dry-runs, yeah, making people actually cast a fake vote forces them to select one person they wanna off, instead of making lists which can be quite vague.
That's exactly what I meant. If you meant it only as a "soft version of no vote", then no, that is no better than no vote, because then Wolves could straightaway lie and nobody would care.

But putting a -3h deadline just adds more chaos in the last bit of the Day, don't you think?
Well whatever. I just wanted to set rather the latest possible time (so people DO have time to think - especially toDay, if I said that it would be halfway through the Day, some people may not have even posted yet), but before the QT vote would come through (as that could further shuffle it - but most importantly, the WWs couldn't just jump on a bandwagon created by the QT by saying "hey, I'm voting for XY, because our innocent dead people think it's wise too").

Whatever, I see it is really complicated on second sight, but... but I'd still be up for setting that up. Where there's the will, there's a way. That before the QT vote, people would have to pick a most likely vote.

Anyway, now I am probably shutting myself down for a while, but I'll be back in some hours, when hopefully also more people will have posted!

EDIT: x-ed with Pitch and Brinniel

[Galadriel55]

Then again, again, when has anything gone according to plan? We plan, and plan, and plan. Then 30 minutes before we're forced to decide we start a new plan and all hell breaks loose.

Is this you still in character, or are you just spreading panic about schemes that haven't happened yet? The Phantom is not playing, remember. :p

OK, let's suppose that, say, an hour before DL there's 3 votes for an innocent, 2 for a wolf and 2 for another innocent. If the last to be tied gets quarantined, the wolves need to be on their toes till the last minute to make sure it's not one of them. If it's the first to be tied, they can spread their votes as they like and the first innocent will still be eliminated.

So are you saying that it's safer to do wolf-on-wolf votes in that scenario, because the first innocent got 3 votes first? Except that the wolf has to guarantee that he is the last one voting, otherwise suddenly his wolf-on-wolf vote can actually tip the balance of votes in favour of his packmate. So I still don't get what the wolf advantage is. Unless it's that if a wolf is spotted late in the Day when someone else already got a bunch of votes, there is theoretically more chances of them surviving till the next Day. Is that what you're getting at?

That's exactly what I meant. If you meant it only as a "soft version of no vote", then no, that is no better than no vote, because then Wolves could straightaway lie and nobody would care.

Ah, gotcha. That kind of makes sense.

Well whatever. I just wanted to set rather the latest possible time (so people DO have time to think - especially toDay, if I said that it would be halfway through the Day, some people may not have even posted yet), but before the QT vote would come through (as that could further shuffle it - but most importantly, the WWs couldn't just jump on a bandwagon created by the QT by saying "hey, I'm voting for XY, because our innocent dead people think it's wise too").

Speaking of the Cuties, what was the final ruling on when their vote comes in?


ETA: yeeeek! We're just over 2 hours in, and on the second page already!

[Nogrod]

Speaking of the Cuties, what was the final ruling on when their vote comes in?
Two hours before the Deadline aka. 7PM GMT/UTC.

[Boromir88]

If I'm understanding this fake-voting plan Legate's brought to the table...

Fast forward to say 2 hours before the deadline. I announce I'm back and caught up to date on the events. Get myself into the mindset of "alright DL 2 hours away, but if it was NOW, of all the information and votes that have taken place I would vote ++Legate (insert reason, reason here)." And in doing that there is more information provided than providing a list of "possibilities."

Then unless something drastic happens in the next 2 hours (and if we're being honest it will. There is the inevitable deadline flurry voting that throws plans off). The point of the exercising of my prior "fake vote" is not so much to say "AHH you back-pedaled you can't back-pedal from your fake vote!" If Legate wasn't a likely option, I would expect a bunch of back-pedaling to take place. The purpose would be to get a look at reasoning for what happened in those 2 hours to either stay with my fake vote or back-pedal from it. Which, in itself is informative

I'm not a list maker, I've tried to do shopping lists, but wind up stopping after listing 2 items and trying to think of what else I need. So I wind up just going without a list and get a bunch of junk I didn't actually need. Get this, one time I went telling myself I needed milk, eggs, carrots and lettuce and came back with like toilet paper, a dagger and this new fried sugary dough thing. I did get the carrots but I completely botched that trip.

I'm not good with lists, but others need lists, so can we mandate it? Are we allowed to pass mandates?

Crikey, this is the 60th time I've been in similar nightmares. They all get worse than the one before it. I'm surprised no one's coughed yet? I was waiting for the first person to cough. Not that coughing is a sure sign, if I cough it's my seasonal allergies. I will take an oath if I do cough, I will make sure I'm all clear and cough into my elbow. I was hoping someone would cough right out into the open, but that was too optimistic.

[Galadriel55]

If I'm understanding this fake-voting plan Legate's brought to the table...

Fast forward to say 2 hours before the deadline. I announce I'm back and caught up to date on the events. Get myself into the mindset of "alright DL 2 hours away, but if it was NOW, of all the information and votes that have taken place I would vote ++Legate (insert reason, reason here)." And in doing that there is more information provided than providing a list of "possibilities."

Then unless something drastic happens in the next 2 hours (and if we're being honest it will. There is the inevitable deadline flurry voting that throws plans off). The point of the exercising of my prior "fake vote" is not so much to say "AHH you back-pedaled you can't back-pedal from your fake vote!" If Legate wasn't a likely option, I would expect a bunch of back-pedaling to take place. The purpose would be to get a look at reasoning for what happened in those 2 hours to either stay with my fake vote or back-pedal from it. Which, in itself is informative

Ok, so this makes sense, it's basically what Legate has already explained. But -

I'm not a list maker, I've tried to do shopping lists, but wind up stopping after listing 2 items and trying to think of what else I need. So I wind up just going without a list and get a bunch of junk I didn't actually need. Get this, one time I went telling myself I needed milk, eggs, carrots and lettuce and came back with like toilet paper, a dagger and this new fried sugary dough thing. I did get the carrots but I completely botched that trip.

I'm not good with lists, but others need lists, so can we mandate it? Are we allowed to pass mandates?

Umm, what was that all about? I get that you want to replace/amend the idea of lists with a single choice, the top pick. But seriously, what?

Should we test you for viral encephalopathy? :p

Crikey, this is the 60th time I've been in similar nightmares. They all get worse than the one before it. I'm surprised no one's coughed yet? I was waiting for the first person to cough. Not that coughing is a sure sign, if I cough it's my seasonal allergies. I will take an oath if I do cough, I will make sure I'm all clear and cough into my elbow. I was hoping someone would cough right out into the open, but that was too optimistic.

*cough*
*cough cough*
*ahem*
*clears throat*

Congrats on the anniversary! :D


(Completely unrelated, but for some reason I forgot how to spell "throat" and ended up with something like "throuaght". Do I need to be tested for viral encephalopathy too? :p)

[Pitchwife]

I just lost a post replying to G55's #45 twice due to internet failure, and I'm not going to type it all again. We can discuss the question tomorrow, if it's still an issue. For now, it's bedtime for me. See ya!

[Inziladun]

Some people hardly say anything about whom they would actually vote until DL. Some people have like three people they have in the "I could vote" category. That is usually a good strategy for the WWs, who then pick from their three in the last minute, ideally based on which bandwagons exist and what is convenient. The main purpose of the whole thing would be, as I said, to force the WW's hand a bit more than it is. Kind of kick people (especially WWs) into action. Force them to fabricate their accusations of others - because then they will be more easily caught on lying. Because unlike all the other villagers, they would have to lie.

Seems that it could be a double-edged sword though; those of evil bent will have a good idea of which way the wind is blowing and plan accordingly.

[THE Ka]

Nobody said anything about wasting a day, or else I have grossly misread it!

I know it's been awhile since I've played, but has there seriously been a game with a no-vote day? :eek:

Also would that make it far too easy for WW to hide when the evidence can be spread across the entire day's worth of posts, instead of the instrumented panic that usually occurs before deadline?

Force them to fabricate their accusations of others - because then they will be more easily caught on lying. Because unlike all the other villagers, they would have to lie.

Rushed villagers may not purposefully lie to distract, but if someone is anxious and doesn't have much evidence they might try to prove themselves by stretching the truth quite a lot (grabbing at straws). Sort of the same way that forced confessions are often useless. There is the unfortunate possibility we could end up with a different kind of bandwagon, not by votes for a player, but a lot of bunk confessionals that sound similar except for a few minor details changed to make it more personable.

I could see WWs having quite some fun with that, either the more vocal ones doing the persecuting and the more conservative echoing villagers. Given that we know their number, there is some room for them to go for the classic strategy of going after one another as a way to throw off villagers.

Just a thought I had:

If there is a tie of votes in the Quarantine Thread, the one who has been quarantined the latest - and has voted for one of the tied candidates - has the final say (aka. her vote counts practically as two).

Let's say the latest in the QT thread is a wolf and by some way this happens where there is a tie. The wolf is obviously going to know who their compatriots are, could they throw the vote from the GT?
It would take a bit of finagling and if there is a mix of roles in QT obviously the villagers would know and outvote anything the wolf is trying to suggest. If successful even once it could be the evening of odds they want...

We also have the 'non-logical' hunter role in game this time:
If the Hunter is voted to be quarantined at the end of a Day, he will take with him anyone he has chosen, whoever that is.

This is an interesting mechanic, because it does make even a 'bad vote' more complicated. If they take a villager, then there is at least more votes in their favour in the QT. If it's a wolf, sure it removes them from the GT, but if there's another wolf already in the QT it could lead them to trying alternate attempts to steal a vote.
It would be interesting if wolves in QT didn't vote together, however. Granted the number in QT would be significantly smaller than in the GT to try and use the 'spread suspicion by voting for one another' tactic, but it would make you pause and wonder why.

[Macalaure]

Ah, Day 1. Where all we can do is make up reasons out of thin air.

*sniffs*

Ugh, nah. The air over Dor-lomin isn't what it used to be. And here people say that the air would be cleaner if everybody stayed in their village.

Anyway.

Fakes votes, eh?

If we mean fake votes instead of real ones, to avoid a Day1 lynch, I don't see the usefulness in that. Since those votes lack any consequence, it's the easiest thing for wolves to throw their votes at whoever, or wolf-on-wolf without the risk that comes with it.

If we mean a deadline before the deadline. Really? What about the people with tighter schedules. We can't expect everybody to be available for two deadlines.

Worse, the day after people will be too quick to jump on those who changed their mind from one deadline to the next. Wolves, on the other hand, lacking conscience, will have a very easy time showing consistency.

I find it very odd how very enthusiastic Legate is about this. My immediate thought was the one that Gala had, too: very cobblerish. A wolf wouldn't stick their head out that far, and one would expect an innocent person to be a bit more measured in their response, weighing pros and cons. Not saying a wolf can't fake a careful approach, of course.

[Inziladun]

Rushed villagers may not purposefully lie to distract, but if someone is anxious and doesn't have much evidence they might try to prove themselves by stretching the truth quite a lot (grabbing at straws). Sort of the same way that forced confessions are often useless. There is the unfortunate possibility we could end up with a different kind of bandwagon, not by votes for a player, but a lot of bunk confessionals that sound similar except for a few minor details changed to make it more personable.

Sense, this.

I could see WWs having quite some fun with that, either the more vocal ones doing the persecuting and the more conservative echoing villagers. Given that we know their number, there is some room for them to go for the classic strategy of going after one another as a way to throw off villagers.

This as well.

[Inziladun]

Ah, Day 1. Where all we can do is make up reasons out of thin air.

Naturally. Usually a stab in the dark, but occasionally those can be true.

If we mean a deadline before the deadline. Really? What about the people with tighter schedules. We can't expect everybody to be available for two deadlines.

Indeed. And would not giving the fake vote for that reason be grounds for suspicion? If so, a handy tool for wolves. If not, an easy way for wolves to avoid it.

I find it very odd how very enthusiastic Legate is about this. My immediate thought was the one that Gala had, too: very cobblerish. A wolf wouldn't stick their head out that far, and one would expect an innocent person to be a bit more measured in their response, weighing pros and cons. Not saying a wolf can't fake a careful approach, of course.

Hmm. Perhaps.

[Boromir88]

Umm, what was that all about? I get that you want to replace/amend the idea of lists with a single choice, the top pick. But seriously, what?

Should we test you for viral encephalopathy? :p


I might need such a test. Whether we're aware, or in the unconscious, we all remain in-character. Agreed? And what do you glean from my in-character? Am I aware I'm doing it or is it in the unconscious? Leave that thought there for a moment.

Currently, I am feeling joy and thrilled recognizing this makes 60. And thank you, because like I said, just joy to still have the enthusiasm and thrill that through 60 times this thing hasn't killed me yet. Then again, knowing that repeating similar situations 60 times takes quite a bit of toll on a person. Leave that thought for a moment.

I feel excitement for everyone being gathered together again. Then there's the fear that well, this is exactly the opposite of the right thing to do. Joy that there's a few newcomers, a lot who have returned from more recent-long break, and a handful who I thought had disappeared completely only to see they're back too.

So, I'm trying to take those 59 previous experiences and think what is everyone's style of play? I know everyone's always adapting and tinkering with their style, but it's hard to consciously break from what makes us comfortable. So, will people stick with what's familiar and stick to habit? And what about the ones who have been out for 5+ years? What do I remember about their style? Are they going to stick to what I remember, or do something completely different? Am I even remembering their "style" correctly?

All in all, it's a confliction of joy and excitement, with double and triple guessing and maybe a touch of paranoia. Add on someone who does a lot of mental lists, only to forget what I set out to accomplish. Now, having all that, what do you glean from my in-character?

True, true. Things never do seem to go according to plan around here. And then the ones who don't follow the plan become lynch fodder the next Day and more often than not turn out to be innocent.-Brinn

Needed to read that, it's worth keeping in mind. Thank you. Granted my mind might look a bit jumbled at the moment. But still it's now in my mind, somewhere.

[Galadriel55]

I just lost a post replying to G55's #45 twice due to internet failure, and I'm not going to type it all again. We can discuss the question tomorrow, if it's still an issue. For now, it's bedtime for me. See ya!

Well, I'm not even sure if it's an issue, cause I'm not sure what you were referring to. :confused:

Also would that make it far too easy for WW to hide when the evidence can be spread across the entire day's worth of posts, instead of the instrumented panic that usually occurs before deadline?

So this is the second time toDay that a person implies a lack of evidence in people's early posts *squints at Lommy and Ka*. Are you in cahoots, or you're just both coincidentally trying to subtly turn people away from the idea of focusing on existing evidence and pretending all the evidence will come later?

Let's say the latest in the QT thread is a wolf and by some way this happens where there is a tie. The wolf is obviously going to know who their compatriots are, could they throw the vote from the GT?
It would take a bit of finagling and if there is a mix of roles in QT obviously the villagers would know and outvote anything the wolf is trying to suggest. If successful even once it could be the evening of odds they want...

Well yes. And it's interesting, because we assume that the QT will be innocently dominated, but if we're better than we think at catching infectors it might be quite even. And then we would always have to second-guess whether the QT vote is the innocents' opinion or the wolves' preference.

This is an interesting mechanic, because it does make even a 'bad vote' more complicated. If they take a villager, then there is at least more votes in their favour in the QT. If it's a wolf, sure it removes them from the GT, but if there's another wolf already in the QT it could lead them to trying alternate attempts to steal a vote.
It would be interesting if wolves in QT didn't vote together, however. Granted the number in QT would be significantly smaller than in the GT to try and use the 'spread suspicion by voting for one another' tactic, but it would make you pause and wonder why.

Thing is, if a known CutieWolf casts a vote, the other Cuties are going to use that as their information. Is the known wolf protecting a packmate? Trying to off a suspected gifted? Or bluffing the rest of the Cuties and going wolf-on-wolf, because the Cuties will then vote the opposite way? Or double bluffing? Or just messing with their heads? And if there are two dead wolves, that just complicates the matter further - and if I can remember correctly, I believe they are allowed to PM with dead mates, so they can coordinate this behind the stage. Are they voting together to save a mate? Are they both bluffing? Are they voting differently to confuse everyone? To bluff? To make the QT spread their votes and fail to vote the right way as a result? This is actually an interesting line of QT tactics I haven't considered before.


Edit: xed with Zil and Boro

[Galadriel55]

Rushed villagers may not purposefully lie to distract, but if someone is anxious and doesn't have much evidence they might try to prove themselves by stretching the truth quite a lot (grabbing at straws). Sort of the same way that forced confessions are often useless. There is the unfortunate possibility we could end up with a different kind of bandwagon, not by votes for a player, but a lot of bunk confessionals that sound similar except for a few minor details changed to make it more personable.
Sense, this.

Is it, though? Because often the way wolves are spotted is because they are anxious out of proportion to the innocents. The extra scrutiny means extra pressure on everyone, wolves included. As for bandwagons, part of their analysis is who had a good reason to be there vs who just tagged along for the ride, and thus each decision must still be the person's own true belief they are willing to stand behind. I see Ka's argument that innocents might inadvertently look more wolfish, but I also see the flip side of Ka saying she doesn't want more scrutiny. Is it really that much sense, considering all the psychology and analysis remain the same as they are in every WW game?

I might need such a test. Whether we're aware, or in the unconscious, we all remain in-character. Agreed? And what do you glean from my in-character? Am I aware I'm doing it or is it in the unconscious? Leave that thought there for a moment.

Currently, I am feeling joy and thrilled recognizing this makes 60. And thank you, because like I said, just joy to still have the enthusiasm and thrill that through 60 times this thing hasn't killed me yet. Then again, knowing that repeating similar situations 60 times takes quite a bit of toll on a person. Leave that thought for a moment.

I feel excitement for everyone being gathered together again. Then there's the fear that well, this is exactly the opposite of the right thing to do. Joy that there's a few newcomers, a lot who have returned from more recent-long break, and a handful who I thought had disappeared completely only to see they're back too.

I see what's happening. Classic Sudden Unexpected Werewolf Overdose Syndrome. Sure, tell us about the rules mandates and the unconscious analysis and whatever other WW skills and twists you got on your mind. *endeth the pretend therapy session*

In other words, you are weird as hell but you get a pass. :)

[Brinniel]

If we mean a deadline before the deadline. Really? What about the people with tighter schedules. We can't expect everybody to be available for two deadlines.
I agree. This seems rather complicated considering we all are in different time zones with different schedules. It could result in a logistical nightmare.

And if there are two dead wolves, that just complicates the matter further - and if I can remember correctly, I believe they are allowed to PM with dead mates, so they can coordinate this behind the stage. Are they voting together to save a mate?
Are you talking about two wolves in quarantine PMing with each other at Night? Is that allowed? I don't recall it in the rules.

[Galadriel55]

Are you talking about two wolves in quarantine PMing with each other at Night? Is that allowed? I don't recall it in the rules.

Am I misremembering? There was definitely discussion about this before the game began.

Speaking of roles and abilities, we missed out on the chance of having two lovers, Huor and Rian!

[Boromir88]

Ah, Day 1. Where all we can do is make up reasons out of thin air.~Mac

This sort of ties in with my previous post. But before I used to think Day 1's a curse. A small annoyance of "what's there for me to analyze and think about?" Maybe some new dynamic or role, but when it comes down towards the end of the day...who the heck am I going to vote for that's not going to be a random shot in the dark?

Then I fell in love with Day 1. Well, maybe I wouldn't go that far, but I started appreciating the randomness, the guessing and yes all the senseless planning. In this one day I can be who I want to be, and not feel guilty that I'm going to cause a disastrous mistake or that I'm letting my side down. There's a care-free aura that I appreciate and embrace in Day 1. If I live past it and survive to Day 2, I start feeling more tense and responsible about being "wrong." The longer I stay around in a village the more that feeling increases.

I don't know when it happened, but I got to a point of "on this one day, Boro, you can do you. Why shouldn't you have fun with it?" Because at the end of this day, it's all going to come down to random guessing of who's getting lynched anyway. Embrace Day 1 and not feel guilty to be an oddball, because if I'm going to get lynched for random reasons anyway, maybe it will have a purpose to be the 1st piece of non-random evidence that will help.

With that, I shall depart and go to bed. I can't promise I won't be a goof when I return. :D

Edit: crossed with everything since post 57

[satansaloser2005]

Greetings and salivations, friends! Um, salutations, I mean! ;)

I don't have any suspicions yet, though of course that's normal at this stage. I may hang out a bit longer this evening to watch the discussion, but I'm likely to fall asleep before too much longer.

There are five scurvy dogs, so our odds aren't terrible for bagging one of them out of sheer luck. I realize they're technically about the same odds as any other game, but let me have my illogical fantasies while I still can.

Unlike Boro, I can guarantee I will be a goof when I return. There will be links, and probably a parody or two.

[Galadriel55]

Are you talking about two wolves in quarantine PMing with each other at Night? Is that allowed? I don't recall it in the rules.

Am I misremembering? There was definitely discussion about this before the game began.

Ok, I am totally misremembering. I tried to find it on the discussion thread but just came across The Mod God actually saying the opposite, that QT Wolves don't PM. But that was before the rules were finalized.


Anyways, going to bed now. Because things are likely to start happening while I'm asleep and in case people are wondering, I am still weighing the question of false votes. I am against a set false deadline, but I see pros and cons to both sides. I still can't believe that purely hypothetical question turned into an actual practical and applicable proposition.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Poor Badger! But all the more joy to the rest of us who can sit down together for a cup of herbal tea and solve his murder, right? *cracks knuckles* (Oh god it's been LONG and I absolutely love being here.)

What, are you suggesting we commit mass suicide? A very... cobbleresque suggestion :p


edit: xed with Pitchwife - and I have no idea what's Pontius Pilate got to do with all this :D

Only a cobbler would accuse another of shoemaking so very early. :Merisu:

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Easy: he demonstrated that washing your hands is no sign of innocence.

So did Lady Macbeth.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

The sheer number of players will play havoc with my ADHD. ;)



Speculating on what those there are doing? No point. It's difficult (though not impossible!) to see a wolf being the first gone, but if that happened it could be useful.



Wolf! Woolf! :p

x/d with Lottie

+1 for Inzil. :Merisu:

[Shastanis Althreduin]

I mean, you're not wrong. I didn't think G55's mentioning a no-lynch was worth strongly disagreeing with, but I did want to make it clear I was not in favor of it. I also thought that would be pretty clear in context, though maybe I underestimated Day 1 jumpiness. :p

I like this too.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

That's probably enough content to make it look like I'm participating.

(Er, wait, what? :p)

And now I'm heading to bed. I likely won't be around until a few hours before DL, but I should be here then.

I'll leave you with this to have fun discussing - if I were to vote right now, it would be for Lommy. ;)

Good night!

[THE Ka]

Am I misremembering? There was definitely discussion about this before the game began.

Speaking of roles and abilities, we missed out on the chance of having two lovers, Huor and Rian!

Special abilities: may pm each other. Often the death of one will kill the other, or the survivor may be allowed a "revenge-kill". Note: there are many possible variants of Lovers; sometimes one or both has another role, which may be evil. Otherwise Lovers are generally assumed to play for the village, but this is not always the case.

... Have to admit it would be kind of nice to see a set up where Rian has a 'revenge-kill' for Huor.


I was wondering about it too, but did some extensive combing through the discussion thread and you're correct:


I'm all for the quarantined wolves being able to PM each other (by Night), but not to the living ones.

Does make the whole QT element extremely interesting in games and kind of nerve racking. Considering without this PM ability with QT wolves, you'd assume it would put them in the dark and cut off from further scheming from incoming fellows and villagers/gifted.
With this twist, even if a wolf was sent to QT early on, a late incoming wolf could pretty much have a wolf kiki...

Thinking more on the mechanics of this, so if I'm correct and not too tired, on the second Night the QT will only have 1 player there to cast a vote?

As for Lommy and I having similar ideas... I have to confess I haven't read Lommy's post yet (I kind of skimmed to get some idea where we were because I came in later... not meant as an affront to anyone's post), but since I have a few more free moments I can catch up. I'll probably be around for another hour or so until It's time for me to turn in.

[Rikae]

Oh ... hello! I'm sorry, I've just been busy making these masks. They have pockets! :smokin:

Well, it's good to see that Lommy and G55 have come to the conclusion that we need to try lynch a wolf, er, quarantine an infected. And G55 and Legate have agreed we should cast fake votes.

And G55 and Lommy have decided that Legate is a cobbler, and Inzil and Mac have suggested he's infected? :eek:

Seriously, it's interesting how the fake votes discussion evolved, seemingly from a couple of throwaway comments to a serious suggestion. Normally it would be totally pointless, but there is some sense in it as a way to prevent people from lurking and waiting to bandwagon on the QT vote. However, I don't think it's practical, and probably won't be necessary, as "lurk and wait for the QT vote" would become suspicious behavior very quickly anyway.

When it comes to single top suspects vs lists, both have their pros and cons and leave material to analyze later on. Me, I like lists. Here's one, just to get the ball rolling:

Pitchwife
G55
Macalaure

[Brinniel]

On Legate's post's about the fake votes...
Is it suspicious? Perhaps, but not necessarily. If he's evil, he's being rather bold, and if he's innocent, a wolf could use his posts to build a case against him. Then again, there could be no wolves involved and they are just quietly letting this play out.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I do believe there's only five remaining players who have not yet posted - which means odds are that there's at least 2-3 baddies hiding among the current posts. The problem I have with Day 1 is that without a track record from a previous Day, I tend see more people as innocent than guilty. Which I guess makes sense; after all, most of us are in fact innocent.

So, let's try this backwards...

So far I find Lommy to be the most genuine. She's only posted a few times early on, however, I do find her to be sensible and am agreeing with what she has to say.

THE Ka also seems level-headed to me and I'm leaning towards innocentish.

As for the other side of the scale, it's still too early for me to feel any strong suspicions, but based on hunch and posts I've seen, I am slightly more wary of: Inzil, Pitchwife, G55

Now time for sleep...it is far too late!

[Galadriel55]

So I got woken up in the middle of the night by a spam call, and so here I am. Again.

So did Lady Macbeth.

I.e. The more you wash your hands, the more suspect you should be? ;)

That's probably enough content to make it look like I'm participating.

(Er, wait, what?)

As this will probably make a difference with later analyses, are we to assume you have not read past the last quoted post yet? Or just didn't have time for a more detailed comment?

I was wondering about it too, but did some extensive combing through the discussion thread and you're correct

So I was still wrong. :o I thought I looked through all of Nog's posts. Evidently not.

Thinking more on the mechanics of this, so if I'm correct and not too tired, on the second Night the QT will only have 1 player there to cast a vote?

D1 + N2 = 2 players to vote on D2. I believe the thread is inactive at Night, and in any case voting only happens during the Day.

Well, it's good to see that Lommy and G55 have come to the conclusion that we need to try lynch a wolf, er, quarantine an infected. And G55 and Legate have agreed we should cast fake votes.

And G55 and Lommy have decided that Legate is a cobbler, and Inzil and Mac have suggested he's infected?

You’re arrested for Gate-breaking, and Tearing up of Rules, and Assaulting Gate-keepers, and - errr, that is, you're accused of Generalizing, Exaggerating, and Deliberately Misinterpreting and Misrepresenting Other Posts. I challenge you to defend your statements!

Seriously, it's interesting how the fake votes discussion evolved, seemingly from a couple of throwaway comments to a serious suggestion. Normally it would be totally pointless, but there is some sense in it as a way to prevent people from lurking and waiting to bandwagon on the QT vote. However, I don't think it's practical, and probably won't be necessary, as "lurk and wait for the QT vote" would become suspicious behavior very quickly anyway.

Assuming the QT have an innocent predominance, would it not be the innocents who would prefer to wait for the QT vote? :confused:


Aaaand back to bed for me. Even the hardy Men of Dor-lomin need their rest.


Edit: xed with Brin.

[Rikae]

You’re arrested for Gate-breaking, and Tearing up of Rules, and Assaulting Gate-keepers, and - errr, that is, you're accused of Generalizing, Exaggerating, and Deliberately Misinterpreting and Misrepresenting Other Posts. I challenge you to defend your statements!

Defend, hm? Just jokingly summarizing the initial conversation. I was curious to see what sort of reaction it would get, though.


Assuming the QT have an innocent predominance, would it not be the innocents who would prefer to wait for the QT vote? :confused:

I was referring to not voicing serious suspicions before the QT vote, which would make for a very unproductive day, no trails, lazy justifications. and a good environment for wolves to hide, which is why (I hope) innocents will avoid doing it.

[Eönwë]

Catching up and checking in briefly:

I didn't like the 'fake vote' idea earlier and I'm glad it seems to have been rejected by the village overall.

I'm not sure what this means for those who discussed it early on though. G55, the original suggester, has since distanced herself from the idea, but whether this is an innocent realizing the problems with their idea vs. a bold wolf realizing that people aren't buying a bad idea remains to be seen.

On my initial read I was under the impression that Legate was supporting the idea of a fake vote with no real vote, but now, rereading the relevant post as I write this, it seems pretty clear that he was supporting the idea of a fake vote followed by a real vote rather than just a fake vote (either expanding upon on or through misinterpretation of G55's idea), which, while I disagree with the idea, makes me feel a little better about him.
Hey, THAT is actually a pretty good idea. Because seriously. It would kinda force the Wolves' hands (or tongues). I like that. I mean people can of course flip-flop later, but it isn't easy. I like it. I wholeheartedly second it. Let's do this!

(Seriously, it seems to me like something that should have come up like, years ago? :D What's wrong with people?)

On the other hand, I think I agree with Zil, Pitch, and others later in the thread that this proposal, such an idea doesn't change much, and just adds more complications without giving us much more to go on (and as Mac and Brinn mention, may be a problem based on timetables/time zones, which is either unfair or gives the infected an excuse), so maybe Legate isn't off the hook after all.


So far, I like THE Ka and Lommy. The fact that Brinn feels the same way (or at least claims to) makes me unsure about whether to trust her too or doubt my lack of suspicions about those two.


Ok, going to sleep now. Will be back with more later.

[A Little Green]

I had forgotten the level of crazy this place can reach! <3
Seriously, it's interesting how the fake votes discussion evolved, seemingly from a couple of throwaway comments to a serious suggestion. Normally it would be totally pointless, but there is some sense in it as a way to prevent people from lurking and waiting to bandwagon on the QT vote. However, I don't think it's practical, and probably won't be necessary, as "lurk and wait for the QT vote" would become suspicious behavior very quickly anyway.
Assuming the QT have an innocent predominance, would it not be the innocents who would prefer to wait for the QT vote?
Nope. Even with an innocent-majority QT, it would be pretty short-sighted for innocent villagers to wait for a Cutie vote and make their decisions based on it. I mean, sure, if the only Cuties are innocent you can trust they won’t vote for an innocent person on purpose, but while they might have conversations we’re not privy to, they don’t know anything more than we do. (This is barring the existence of a Cutie Seer, obviously, in which case I agree Cutie votes should have more weight in our decision-making.) The reason I’m saying this is that it strikes me as an easy place to hide as a wolf – “Oh sorry I voted for an innocent, I was just following the innocent Cuties’ lead!”

That said, the whole brouhaha about fake voting a few hours before actual voting doesn’t make sense to me either. As Ka and Mac pointed out, consistency is easier for a wolf than an ordo. They already know everyone’s alignment (except for the cobbler) and can make a decision on who to go for and stick with it. Which would be a silly thing to do as an ordo, especially early on in the game. You’re supposed to change your mind about people in light of better arguments or evidence. I’d be wary of any strategy that assumes consistency is a sign of innocence. Not to mention the logistics of arranging two deadlines with 22 villagers in different time zones :rolleyes:

Don't many do this anyway, as in saying whom they suspect and might vote for? And those who don't, voting quickly and seemingly haphazardly, are rightly questioned.Yes! I appreciate the sentiment behind the fake-votes-before-actual-votes -plan – wanting people to state who they suspect and why already before they actually vote for somebody. But don’t we already do that? I mean, if a player just out of the blue jumps on a bandwagon right before deadline without having previously suspected the bandwagonee (is that a word? Is now) or at least explaining why they’re suspecting them now, they’re pretty much committing werewolf suicide.

I also disagree with Gal about lists being vague and useless. I personally find them quite helpful; without them it’s easy to stick to talking about the loudest, most controversial villagers and topics and let others fly under the radar completely. This tends to serve wolves better than innocents since odds are at least some of them are among the quiet, less attention-seeking crowd. I’m not saying everyone should do lists, just that I think they can be just as revealing as fake votes (if not more).

edit: x-ed with Eonwe! *waves*

[Eönwë]

Also, can we get an official confirmation from Nog about what the final decision is about whether wolves can PM each other within quarantine?

[Nogrod]

Also, can we get an official confirmation from Nog about what the final decision is about whether wolves can PM each other within quarantine?
Yes you can.

Yes they can.

[Huinesoron]

And I'm back. Am I the first person to go away and return? No, I see G55 got there first.

Reading through the thread, I was scribbling down names to see who had showed up, and started to worry I was alphabetically first on the list. :O I was very glad when Brinniel and Boromir88 showed up, I can tell you.

Hmm?

It took about five minutes for the thread to load for me after Deadline; I was wondering if we'd managed to overload the Downs. That was all. :)

Right, I promised to look over the thread so far, didn't I?

A lot has already been said about the no-vote idea, but something that jumped out at me that doesn't seem to have been brought back up is this comment by Pitchwife:

OK, Legate, let me ask you: What exactly do we have to gain from the kind of fake vote you're suggesting?
If it is just that, a fake vote with no real lynch as per G55, we've effectively wasted a day[...]
This strikes me as a pseudo-useful suggestion/discussion. *ping*

It really struck me how strongly Pitch seemed to be pinning the no-vote concept on Legate, even though G55 had originally proposed it and (I think) had been the main proponent up to that point. I wondered whether this might be WolfPitch (PitchFector?) trying to put the heat on Legate specifically, but why not let it stay on G55? I think someone suggested that G55's backdown could be a wolf trying to pull away from a bad idea, which could mean WolfPitch was protecting GaladriWolf, but spotting two wolves at once seems a bit much for Day 1.

Or does it? On rethinking, catching wolves by their interactions with each other doesn't seem too far-fetched?

Coming away from that discussion (I feel like Eonwe's opening post covered the actual idea fairly well), one person I've not seen much discussion of who really stuck out to me was Thinlomien. I know it's opening posts, and they tend to be a bit contentless, but this one really grabbed me:

I'm predicting a somewhat chaotic game, with this large a village and deadline that should work for most of us. (Personally I'm probably almost always going to be around the dl because it's midnight in my time zone and I'm a temporarily unemployed night owl.) Like I'm imanining multiple crossposted votes in the minutes before deadline. I wanted to suggest avoiding this by consciously trying to spread the vote a little, but then again, the last minute flurry can be pretty telling afterwards. :D But in case someone is wondering, I'm not saying that toDay should amount into a shot in the dark if we can avoid it. I'm still staunchly in camp "Day1 can and does matter" and I'm watching you all.

Also once we have the quarantine let's just be mindful not to focus too much on speculating about that, right? Unless the first person who goes there is a wolf, it would be pretty funny to see how a known dead wolf would vote!

Which almost led me to say "hey dudes, let's lynch a wolf toDay, that would be a really good idea"... well.... surprise. ;)

"It's all going to be CHAOS, here's why we both should and shouldn't spread the vote, ignore the (presumably majority-innocent) QT, and I'm totally not going to say we should lynch a wolf because that would be wolfy (but I'm saying it anyway)".

I know that's a rather glib summary, but this post really rang alarm bells for me. I think it's the 'finding a wolf will be nearly impossible, so there's no point trying' vibe. And then her later posts seemed to be quite confrontational... come to think of it, against G55 and Legate, who were already under a certain amount of fire.

On the flip side, I'm somewhat suspicious of the people who've posted a few times but not really... said anything. I feel like Loslote did this, but mostly in the very early game when nobody was saying much of substance. The Two Bs (Brinniel and Boromir88) struck me the same way, and came in a fair bit later. Though in fairness I was starting to glaze over a little by the middle of page 2, so their later posts might have more in them than I thought.

... I've quote-posted something from Zil but have no idea why. Let me go look at the original.

Oh, right, the requote got stripped out. It was this:


I find it very odd how very enthusiastic Legate is about this. My immediate thought was the one that Gala had, too: very cobblerish. A wolf wouldn't stick their head out that far, and one would expect an innocent person to be a bit more measured in their response, weighing pros and cons. Not saying a wolf can't fake a careful approach, of course.
Hmm. Perhaps.

I have no idea how to spot a cobbler, but it occurs to me that climbing aboard a cobbler-wagon could be a nice way for a wolf to hide. If the village ends up cobbler-hunting rather than wolf-hunting, that can only be a win for the wolves, right? So this sort of mild encouragement of cobbler suspicions raised a little flag for me.

... actually, didn't Lommy bring up the cobbler as well? Yeah, there it is - right back in her first post.

So, general overview: nothing solid (obviously!), but at least a few things to consider. I would like to know why Pitch refocussed the no-vote discussion on Legate, and more generally, whether people agree that cobbler-spotting can be a wolfish tell.

hS

[Thinlómien]

Well, don't you look at the whole gestalt of a person's posts before voting, including the early handful of posts (which is actually growing quite big for a handful )? Dismissing early posts because of the "nothing really happens" argument is dismissing part of the evidence.Of course the early banter should not be completely ignored, I was merely saying that it's not a particularly novel and genius idea to look at more than that before voting. But anyway I maintain that later Day1 posts are on average more important than the first ones which are mainly banter.

I gotta applaud Legate for getting the discussion rolling by taking G55's fake lynch idea seriously and running with it; however I'm very confused why he'd do this (ordo trying to be helpful? wolf trying to look helpful? cobbler trying to distract people?). I mean he seems to later come to the conclusion that it is perhaps too complicated a scheme to realistically execute which is exactly why I thought it was an insane idea from the beginning. Also, as Boro points out, the game is so last-minute oriented that this scheme would not even help us very much.

Ok so far, I get a bit of a funny vibe about Kitanna and Lottie but I am very aware I always get a funny vibe about them on Day1 :p, so I'm holding my horses here. Boro is also acting a little weird, but to be fair, it could just be about being overwhelmed by ww nostalgia. G55 caught my attention, admittedly partly because she started accusing me (and THE Ka) on what I consider really shoddy grounds - but I wonder if this is just a knee-jerk reaction on my part.

I was referring to not voicing serious suspicions before the QT vote, which would make for a very unproductive day, no trails, lazy justifications. and a good environment for wolves to hide, which is why (I hope) innocents will avoid doing it.Hear, hear! Not a problem toDay obviously, but good to keep in mind in the future.

You’re supposed to change your mind about people in light of better arguments or evidence. I’d be wary of any strategy that assumes consistency is a sign of innocence.Ditto.

I also disagree with Gal about lists being vague and useless. I personally find them quite helpful; without them it’s easy to stick to talking about the loudest, most controversial villagers and topics and let others fly under the radar completely. This tends to serve wolves better than innocents since odds are at least some of them are among the quiet, less attention-seeking crowd. I’m not saying everyone should do lists, just that I think they can be just as revealing as fake votes (if not more).Yes. Even if everyone doesn't make and post a list, everyone should at least go through the player list in their head and pause to consider each fellow player for a sec. With this amount of players it's super easy for the wolves to slip under the radar by being quiet and avoiding the contrversial topics.

"It's all going to be CHAOS, here's why we both should and shouldn't spread the vote, ignore the (presumably majority-innocent) QT, and I'm totally not going to say we should lynch a wolf because that would be wolfy (but I'm saying it anyway)".

I know that's a rather glib summary, but this post really rang alarm bells for me. I think it's the 'finding a wolf will be nearly impossible, so there's no point trying' vibe.Ah, have you not heard of my trademark fliflopping? :p Seriously though, I don't consider myself flipfloppy, my brain just works on an endless "one hand, on the other hand" loop, which is both useful and frustrating to me myself. So if I'm gonna articulate my whole thought process (like I often do, because ehhh who would think through a post before writing it? not me ;)) it is gonna sound wishywashy. But that being said, I absolutely don't think it's impossible to find a wolf on Day1, or that it isn't worth trying. That's why I ended my paragraph there by saying that I'm still staunchly in the camp "Day1 matters".

I have no idea how to spot a cobbler, but it occurs to me that climbing aboard a cobbler-wagon could be a nice way for a wolf to hide. If the village ends up cobbler-hunting rather than wolf-hunting, that can only be a win for the wolves, right? So this sort of mild encouragement of cobbler suspicions raised a little flag for me.Yes, concentrating our efforts on finding the cobbler is unhelpful and it would be a potentially beneficial path for the wolves to try to keep the discussion in that. However, I don't think anyone concentrated on the cobbler too much so far. People can and should point out when someone looks like the cobbler, even if they aren't our primary target (identifying them is still helpful, especially later in the game. After all, if the lynch shapes up to be a toss between an innocent and the cobbler, the choice is clear, and also having an idea whom not to trust in the late game voting is pretty useful).

Also correct me if I'm wrong, but I think the early Day "you're the cobbler!" posts were largely banter (certainly my accusation of Legate was at least, as you can see it was based on his in character post about refraining from breathing being a good way to stop the Black Breath).

As for "how would one spot the cobbler" - well, that's a question. Traditionally people assume the cobbler would mess around and distract the village and draw the attention and suspicion to themselves so that the wolves can slip unnoticed meanwhile, but that is certainly not the only way to play the role. The cobbler could just as well play cautiously, try to identify the wolves, and align their votes with theirs. Or something else completely. So that's certainly one more reason not to start concentrating on the cobbler instead of the wolves.

[A Little Green]

I have no idea how to spot a cobbler, but it occurs to me that climbing aboard a cobbler-wagon could be a nice way for a wolf to hide. If the village ends up cobbler-hunting rather than wolf-hunting, that can only be a win for the wolves, right? So this sort of mild encouragement of cobbler suspicions raised a little flag for me.

... actually, didn't Lommy bring up the cobbler as well? Yeah, there it is - right back in her first post.

So, general overview: nothing solid (obviously!), but at least a few things to consider. I would like to know why Pitch refocussed the no-vote discussion on Legate, and more generally, whether people agree that cobbler-spotting can be a wolfish tell.I'm supposed to be working atm so I'll be back with more substance later, but just a quick note on cobbler-spotting: yes, a village that focused extensively on speculating about the cobbler would probably be a happy place for a wolf. That said, I do think it's useful to keep the cobbler in mind - that is, to remember that there is one person around whose aim is to distract us from hunting our actual wolves. So discussing potential cobbler suspicions doesn't necessarily ring alarm bells for me, but I'd be wary of anyone mainly concerned with chasing cobblers (never seen that though) or voting for a suspected cobbler instead of a suspected wolf.

Edit: x-ed with Lommy

[Huinesoron]

Five minutes between a webex and actual productive work, so since Lommy replied I thought I'd return the favour

Of course the early banter should not be completely ignored, I was merely saying that it's not a particularly novel and genius idea to look at more than that before voting. But anyway I maintain that later Day1 posts are on average more important than the first ones which are mainly banter.

I can see the argument here, but I'm also mindful of the fact that G55's original raising of no-vote Day 1 comes over as exactly the same kind of banter as 'that's just what a wolf would say!' or 'sounds cobblerish!' in opening posts. Yet it still wound up dominating the first half of the Day, and set up a lot of links (positive and negative) between the people discussing it. That could indicate a wolf taking the 'banter' and using it to cast suspicion, or using it to derail half the Day into non-wolf-hunting; it could also indicate G55 was a wolf sowing seeds to achieve the same end (which would tie in to my PitchWolf/GaladriWolf hypothesis*).

*I'm a scientist; I can't bring myself to say 'theory' on so little data.

I gotta applaud Legate for getting the discussion rolling by taking G55's fake lynch idea seriously and running with it; however I'm very confused why he'd do this (ordo trying to be helpful? wolf trying to look helpful? cobbler trying to distract people?). I mean he seems to later come to the conclusion that it is perhaps too complicated a scheme to realistically execute which is exactly why I thought it was an insane idea from the beginning. Also, as Boro points out, the game is so last-minute oriented that this scheme would not even help us very much.

Hah, I didn't read your post well enough before starting to reply... this is kind of half what I'm trying to say, but also half suspicious, because I feel like there's a lot of people who managed to 'contribute' by just talking about no-votes.


Ah, have you not heard of my trademark fliflopping? :p Seriously though, I don't consider myself flipfloppy, my brain just works on an endless "one hand, on the other hand" loop, which is both useful and frustrating to me myself. So if I'm gonna articulate my whole thought process (like I often do, because ehhh who would think through a post before writing it? not me ) it is gonna sound wishywashy. But that being said, I absolutely don't think it's impossible to find a wolf on Day1, or that it isn't worth trying. That's why I ended my paragraph there by saying that I'm still staunchly in the camp "Day1 matters".

I totally understand that kind of thought process (I tend towards parenthetical irrelevancies myself), but I'm also wondering whether, for what is after all a 'first game back' for most of you, there's an element of playing into your** own legend: deliberately heightening your 'trademarks' to cover up for any suspicious behaviour.

**'Your' here indicates a general thought, not specifically about Thinlomien; I don't know half of you half as well as I should like, and certainly not well enough to know who's acting 'as expected'.


Yes, concentrating our efforts on finding the cobbler is unhelpful and it would be a potentially beneficial path for the wolves to try to keep the discussion in that. However, I don't think anyone concentrated on the cobbler too much so far. People can and should point out when someone looks like the cobbler, even if they aren't our primary target (identifying them is still helpful, especially later in the game. After all, if the lynch shapes up to be a toss between an innocent and the cobbler, the choice is clear, and also having an idea whom not to trust in the late game voting is pretty useful).

[...]

As for "how would one spot the cobbler" - well, that's a question. Traditionally people assume the cobbler would mess around and distract the village and draw the attention and suspicion to themselves so that the wolves can slip unnoticed meanwhile, but that is certainly not the only way to play the role. The cobbler could just as well play cautiously, try to identify the wolves, and align their votes with theirs. Or something else completely. So that's certainly one more reason not to start concentrating on the cobbler instead of the wolves.

I'm supposed to be working atm so I'll be back with more substance later, but just a quick note on cobbler-spotting: yes, a village that focused extensively on speculating about the cobbler would probably be a happy place for a wolf. That said, I do think it's useful to keep the cobbler in mind - that is, to remember that there is one person around whose aim is to distract us from hunting our actual wolves. So discussing potential cobbler suspicions doesn't necessarily ring alarm bells for me, but I'd be wary of anyone mainly concerned with chasing cobblers (never seen that though) or voting for a suspected cobbler instead of a suspected wolf.

Thank you both. :) I'll keep this in mind (though I may reconsider if either of you turn out to be wolves! :D)

hS

[Kath]

Well, two pages by this time isn't as bad as I thought it might be! This working from home malarkey means I can actually get on here at a normal time as well and have time to read everything instead of frantically skimming through it all in the last few hours. Whether that will be of any help though remains to be seen!

Caveat to that: I'm doing this amidst school work so I started at 9:45 and will simply keep refreshing as I go. Goodness only knows what time it will be when it gets posted!

I have just been reading through the rules post on the discussion thread as I saw there had been some questions about particular rules on the way through. There are some really intriguing bits!

There is a kind of a secondary victory condition as well. If the Villagers manage to keep Lalaith safe, they get a lot of credit and can prize themselves for keeping up the cause of beauty and goodness in this dark and evil world. This concerns the QT especially as players there already know their characters and should be more concerned also about that side of the story.
Am I right that the Innocent Child and Lalaith are the same role? I don't think I've played with that role before. Also I love the idea of a secondary story going on behind the scenes.

There's been some talk about Cobbler-identifying along the way as well. But the rules state that the Cobbler counts for the Innocent tally, so picking them out over finding wolves doesn't really help matters. I recall games where knowing someone was the Cobbler was a relief because at least you could then just ignore the crazy, though!

Oh, I should read before writing. The Innocent Child = Urwen/Lalaith.

Right, onto the actual game thread.

Ach, I can't remember how you quote within a quote. Like, have two people's posts in one. This will look messy, sorry.

What, are you suggesting we commit mass suicide? A very... cobbleresque suggestion

Well... I suppose, technically, if we all learn from RL examples and willingly quarantine ourselves *before* we get sick - i.e. if we all vote ourselves - the only people not to do so will be the baddies, and then Day 2 will be a breeze. Oh lord.


Aaaaand cue discussion about a no-vote Day 1!

So, Lommy's comment came from a joke of Legate's, and then G55's comment seems to be just a continuation of the same. But then, there's no conversation about it other than Legate saying he is glad there are no double lynches. In fact it's G55 that brings it up again.

Lol. Though this made me think: why didn't the No Lynch debate ever bring up fake votes? Like each person says who they would vote for, but not actually vote. So you have a tally, but no lynch.
I don't really understand the concept. If everyone said who they would vote for, but there's no lynch and no role reveal, then the votes don't tell anything. Also the lynch is the only way of taking a wolf down unless the Hunter is targeted at Night and has picked a wolf.

Hey, THAT is actually a pretty good idea. Because seriously. It would kinda force the Wolves' hands (or tongues). I like that. I mean people can of course flip-flop later, but it isn't easy. I like it. I wholeheartedly second it. Let's do this!
Legate then seems quite keen on the idea! But I can't work out whether he means that people should say their votes and then actually vote, because of where he says about flip-flopping here, which suggests he means they could change their minds between stating who they would vote for and then actually voting. Rather than saying who you would vote for but then not voting. If the former, that strikes me as just the same as what people normally do, where they make a list or put forward an idea of who they might vote for a while before the deadline - which I think most people tend to do. If the latter ... it still makes no sense.

So Pitch, Lottie, Inzil, Brinn (Brinn quite vociferously!) are firmly against the no lynch. And Pitch seems to feel Legate is the instigator of it, but really I feel that honour goes to G55. I think I'm reading Legate's comments as still with a real vote, whereas G55's suggest no actual vote. And then G55 adds to that focus on Legate.

Ok, cobbler much? Even I don't like my idea with so much enthusiasm. I was mainly kinda curious if that tack has ever been tried - and why not, cause it's marginally less bad than the No Votes At All camp.

So was G55 just putting the idea out there to see who would bite? She specifically states here (post 38 - I cannot work out this quoting thing) that she isn't in favour of her own idea. Now, Day 1 discussion can be tough. I mean look, it's her idea that's meant I can really write anything, so on the one hand this is brilliant. It's got people talking, it means there's something to say! But she does seem to be backing away from it quite sharply.

Then again, again, when has anything gone according to plan? We plan, and plan, and plan. Then 30 minutes before we're forced to decide we start a new plan and all hell breaks loose.
Boro arrives with a rather dire but entirely accurate prediction of the future. :rolleyes:

Yeah, see looking at Legate's post 41 it really seems like he was saying to state a vote but then to also make a vote in the Day. I still think that's pretty much what we do anyway, and so this doesn't really stand out to me as anything.

OK, let's suppose that, say, an hour before DL there's 3 votes for an innocent, 2 for a wolf and 2 for another innocent. If the last to be tied gets quarantined, the wolves need to be on their toes till the last minute to make sure it's not one of them. If it's the first to be tied, they can spread their votes as they like and the first innocent will still be eliminated.
A conversation about when to vote led to this. The rules said it is the first to be tied. I don't think this means the wolves can be entirely relaxed about it, as unless all the innocents had voted before all the wolves there is always the chance of things changing. But any voting, even spread voting, will at least then give everyone someone to work with the following day.

See and then Boro's at it with 'this fake-voting plan of Legate's'. But it wasn't! It was G55's! Pitch and Boro seem to have been thrown by this. I mean, ok, Legate made it into a plan as such, but it wasn't his idea in the first place.

Let's say the latest in the QT thread is a wolf and by some way this happens where there is a tie. The wolf is obviously going to know who their compatriots are, could they throw the vote from the GT?
It would take a bit of finagling and if there is a mix of roles in QT obviously the villagers would know and outvote anything the wolf is trying to suggest. If successful even once it could be the evening of odds they want...
Interesting. Does this suggest a wolf ending up in the QT early on could be an advantage to the wolves? Because if they were there the first QT day they could control the vote? I suppose after that they're pretty much useless, though. Why do I feel like if Nilp was here he'd jump at the chance to self-vote and try it out? :D

I find it very odd how very enthusiastic Legate is about this. My immediate thought was the one that Gala had, too: very cobblerish. A wolf wouldn't stick their head out that far, and one would expect an innocent person to be a bit more measured in their response, weighing pros and cons. Not saying a wolf can't fake a careful approach, of course.
Mac, too. I'm starting to think maybe it's me reading this wrong, but that's why I do posts like this. I don't know if it helps other people, but for myself I'm telling the story of the Day, because I simply can't keep track of things otherwise. And it's telling me G55 started this thing off, not Legate. And I still think Legate was saying state a vote, make a vote, which still seems normal.

I love how Shasta's turned up and basically done what was being proposed anyway!

I'd say the biggest problem with this whole discussion was the use of the phrase: fake vote. Why on earth didn't they get called: planned votes?

And then, two people (Rikae and Brinn) make quick suspicion lists. Which is why I don't think the discussion really needed to happen anyway. People do this naturally. I suppose there's the odd person who appears, throws a vote out of seemingly nowhere and then disappears - but I suspect they wouldn't last too long then anyway!

Ah, Eonwe has the same gist of the whole thing as I do. It's a bit of a relief to have someone else see it the same way by this point! And Hui, although he seems to be suggesting a Pitch-Legate wolf duo as well.

Cobbler discussion came up again. I can't work this out with my shoddy maths. So, the Cobbler counts for the innocents, but if the Cobbler ends up in the QT and their role is known, and the role of any wolves in the QT is also known, does that then advantage the wolves in terms of numbers and help them control the vote - because they all know who each other is even if they can't communicate and so would all just vote the same if that would beat/tie the vote. I was just trying to work out whether trying to keep them in the Game Thread would be a better option, because at least here they don't know who the wolves are. But then their role wouldn't be confirmed either. Ugh.

Ooh! The end. Finished at post 79 before I went bolding in case I cross.

Ok. Well, I didn't like the mis-reading of what happened early on with that voting discussion, but I don't know whether it was confused or purposeful on behalf of those who seemed to really focus on Legate as the ringleader: Pitch, Mac, Boro. I think G55 backing away from it and then seeming like she didn't know where Legate was coming from was odd.

Sorry about the length. I'll be back sporadically. Given this took an hour and a half (!!) don't expect hundreds of posts. :D

[Inziladun]

Even with an innocent-majority QT, it would be pretty short-sighted for innocent villagers to wait for a Cutie vote and make their decisions based on it. I mean, sure, if the only Cuties are innocent you can trust they won’t vote for an innocent person on purpose, but while they might have conversations we’re not privy to, they don’t know anything more than we do. (This is barring the existence of a Cutie Seer, obviously, in which case I agree Cutie votes should have more weight in our decision-making.) The reason I’m saying this is that it strikes me as an easy place to hide as a wolf – “Oh sorry I voted for an innocent, I was just following the innocent Cuties’ lead!”

Agreed. If we know that the majority on the QT are innocent, that only tells us that they won't knowingly vote for the good side. A Seer in the QT would have more weight corresponding with the amount of time they'd been there; ie a Seer who had only had one or two dreams before quarantine would be as lost as everyone else by Day 5.


I also disagree with Gal about lists being vague and useless. I personally find them quite helpful; without them it’s easy to stick to talking about the loudest, most controversial villagers and topics and let others fly under the radar completely. This tends to serve wolves better than innocents since odds are at least some of them are among the quiet, less attention-seeking crowd. I’m not saying everyone should do lists, just that I think they can be just as revealing as fake votes (if not more).

I usually don't do involved lists about everyone, but I've always seen them as a way for some to organize their thoughts.

It really struck me how strongly Pitch seemed to be pinning the no-vote concept on Legate, even though G55 had originally proposed it and (I think) had been the main proponent up to that point. I wondered whether this might be WolfPitch (PitchFector?) trying to put the heat on Legate specifically, but why not let it stay on G55? I think someone suggested that G55's backdown could be a wolf trying to pull away from a bad idea, which could mean WolfPitch was protecting GaladriWolf, but spotting two wolves at once seems a bit much for Day 1.

I need to go back and reread all that. Legate feels a bit off to me, but I was wondering if it partly was due to the long time since we've played.

II have no idea how to spot a cobbler, but it occurs to me that climbing aboard a cobbler-wagon could be a nice way for a wolf to hide. If the village ends up cobbler-hunting rather than wolf-hunting, that can only be a win for the wolves, right? So this sort of mild encouragement of cobbler suspicions raised a little flag for me.

The wolves will be reluctant to target the Cobbler, even though xe is technically the enemy. It's in the Cobbler's interest in fact to hint who they are to the wolves.

So this is the second time toDay that a person implies a lack of evidence in people's early posts *squints at Lommy and Ka*. Are you in cahoots, or you're just both coincidentally trying to subtly turn people away from the idea of focusing on existing evidence and pretending all the evidence will come later?

I didn't get that they were saying everyone's posts should be disregarded as useless fluff, only that Day 1 is by its nature the most random vote. Hence, past suggestions of not voting at all Day 1.

Thing is, if a known CutieWolf casts a vote, the other Cuties are going to use that as their information. Is the known wolf protecting a packmate? Trying to off a suspected gifted? Or bluffing the rest of the Cuties and going wolf-on-wolf, because the Cuties will then vote the opposite way? Or double bluffing? Or just messing with their heads? And if there are two dead wolves, that just complicates the matter further - and if I can remember correctly, I believe they are allowed to PM with dead mates, so they can coordinate this behind the stage. Are they voting together to save a mate? Are they both bluffing? Are they voting differently to confuse everyone? To bluff? To make the QT spread their votes and fail to vote the right way as a result? This is actually an interesting line of QT tactics I haven't considered before.

I think overly analyzing the QT vote is ill-advised. As noted, the predominant alignment of those there will be known, and we just keep that in mind when we see their vote. Even if they're mostly Innocent, they could be wrong.


Is it, though? Because often the way wolves are spotted is because they are anxious out of proportion to the innocents. The extra scrutiny means extra pressure on everyone, wolves included. As for bandwagons, part of their analysis is who had a good reason to be there vs who just tagged along for the ride, and thus each decision must still be the person's own true belief they are willing to stand behind. I see Ka's argument that innocents might inadvertently look more wolfish, but I also see the flip side of Ka saying she doesn't want more scrutiny. Is it really that much sense, considering all the psychology and analysis remain the same as they are in every WW game?

But all this can be done without people freaking out about being present for a "fake DL" when they might have enough trouble getting here for the real one. And being able to cast doubt on those who failed to fake vote (for valid reasons) could jsut give the wolves a basis for a bandwagon.

I'm not sure what this means for those who discussed it early on though. G55, the original suggester, has since distanced herself from the idea, but whether this is an innocent realizing the problems with their idea vs. a bold wolf realizing that people aren't buying a bad idea remains to be seen.

I'm trying to decide whether I think Legate or G55 makes me more uneasy.

A lot of RL going on today, including a funeral to attend. I should have no trouble getting back before DL.

x/d with Huey and Kath

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Okay! Back, a quick runthrough of what's been posted meanwhile (I'm kinda glad it's just one page and not seven, as I feared. But it's a long way to DL still...) Responding to various stuff as I go...

Rushed villagers may not purposefully lie to distract, but if someone is anxious and doesn't have much evidence they might try to prove themselves by stretching the truth quite a lot (grabbing at straws). Sort of the same way that forced confessions are often useless. There is the unfortunate possibility we could end up with a different kind of bandwagon, not by votes for a player, but a lot of bunk confessionals that sound similar except for a few minor details changed to make it more personable.
It happens always (and happened to me in particular quite a few times). But WWs would still be more threatened by it than innocents, I think.

Let's say the latest in the QT thread is a wolf and by some way this happens where there is a tie. The wolf is obviously going to know who their compatriots are, could they throw the vote from the GT?
It would take a bit of finagling and if there is a mix of roles in QT obviously the villagers would know and outvote anything the wolf is trying to suggest. If successful even once it could be the evening of odds they want...

We also have the 'non-logical' hunter role in game this time:


This is an interesting mechanic, because it does make even a 'bad vote' more complicated. If they take a villager, then there is at least more votes in their favour in the QT. If it's a wolf, sure it removes them from the GT, but if there's another wolf already in the QT it could lead them to trying alternate attempts to steal a vote.
It would be interesting if wolves in QT didn't vote together, however. Granted the number in QT would be significantly smaller than in the GT to try and use the 'spread suspicion by voting for one another' tactic, but it would make you pause and wonder why.
Yes, I think that's an interesting possibility, but 1) it's a what-if and 2) it's about one-in-a-thousand chance for such a thing to happen in the first place (several conditions would have to be met). Let's remember this and bring it up in case we find ourselves in such a situation, but now, it's pure speculation not very relevant for the moment.

Speaking of that, I also don't know why some people *glances in the direction of Pitch and G55* were spending so much time discussing last-minute voting and stuff. Last-minute voting will happen no matter what, it has been like that since the dawn of time, discussing it has about as much merit as discussing whether the village should try to lynch Wolves in order to win.

I mean the theory about when are wolf-on-wolf votes more likely etc is a good point, but it will be relevant only in retrospect, and only after we have confirmed at least one Wolf's identity.

I agree. This seems rather complicated considering we all are in different time zones with different schedules. It could result in a logistical nightmare.
Well (and ad "second deadline" in general): if people agreed to it, it would work. I mean some people vote early anyway. Where there's a will... But if not, then not. It served as an interesting thought experiment, and a discussion material, it seems, at least.

Poor Badger! But all the more joy to the rest of us who can sit down together for a cup of herbal tea and solve his murder, right? *cracks knuckles* (Oh god it's been LONG and I absolutely love being here.)

What, are you suggesting we commit mass suicide? A very... cobbleresque suggestion


edit: xed with Pitchwife - and I have no idea what's Pontius Pilate got to do with all this Only a cobbler would accuse another of shoemaking so very early. :Merisu:
Easy: he demonstrated that washing your hands is no sign of innocence.So did Lady Macbeth.
Given that Shasta has been a known psychic throughout the entire WW history, I say this means Lommy is a Cobbler and Pitch is a Wolf. Unless, of course, Shasta himself is something sinister.

Oh ... hello! I'm sorry, I've just been busy making these masks. They have pockets! :smokin:
Hey! Been waiting for one of those!

When it comes to single top suspects vs lists, both have their pros and cons and leave material to analyze later on. Me, I like lists. Here's one, just to get the ball rolling:

Pitchwife
G55
Macalaure
But you didn't indicate what is that a list of. Of what? Top suspects?

Last thought: I second Lommy and Greenie about not focussing on Cobbler. I think that's about the extent of that we should give them. We are likely to accidentally lynch them anyway, mistaking them for a Wolf, but every post spent on discussing the Cobbler is only more distraction from our main goal. Which is exactly what the Cobbler wants. Talk about vicious circle.

EDIT: x-ed with Huinesoron, Kath and Zil

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

Hi all,

Nice to see day 1 banter spiralling out of control, it convinces me that things haven't changed too much over the years.

I will attempt to following the action closely during the day, but it will probably be 3 or 4 hours before I can put together a lengthy post.

For now let me just say that I am pro anything that leaves more data for us to analyse, so in principle I am not against making preliminary votes a thing. As long as we don't take a dogmatic approach that would leave the system open for wolfish exploitation (but that goes for pretty much everything).

[Kitanna]

I'm technically supposed to start work soon, so we'll see how much I get through here.

OK, Legate, let me ask you: What exactly do we have to gain from the kind of fake vote you're suggesting?
If it is just that, a fake vote with no real lynch as per G55, we've effectively wasted a day, nobody has to fear the consequences of their vote because without a lynch, we won't know whether they voted for an innoent or a wolf, and the wolves can go wolf-on-wolf to their hearts' content witrh no danger to any of them.
If it's just that people announce beforehand whom they are planning to vote, and the vote takes place later, and we compare what people said before to how they actually voted, how is this different from what we usually do?
This strikes me as a pseudo-useful suggestion/discussion. *ping*
Your taking apart of Legate's suggestion as a pseudo-useful post, could be applied here though. In both instances it could be innocent villagers stirring up conversation to draw out baddies. Or it could be baddies trying to draw in innocents to pin as guilty later.

I'm here to represent the We Hate Day Ones club (or whatever its name ever was). And as much as I agree that with 5 wolves it is statistically more likely to lynch one on Day 1... Well, let's see what the Day brings...
(Now this, this post has no helpful content whatsoever. )
Not helpful whatsoever? I dunno, the need to point out "this wasn't helpful" makes me raise my eyebrows. We already had some posts and discussions going when you chimed in and it just seems suspicious you felt the need to point out you had nothing to add at the time. "Look at me, I'm definitely innocent because I haven't said anything of real merit."


Yes, people do that. But usually, people fall into multiple categories. Some people hardly say anything about whom they would actually vote until DL. Some people have like three people they have in the "I could vote" category. That is usually a good strategy for the WWs, who then pick from their three in the last minute, ideally based on which bandwagons exist and what is convenient. The main purpose of the whole thing would be, as I said, to force the WW's hand a bit more than it is. Kind of kick people (especially WWs) into action. Force them to fabricate their accusations of others - because then they will be more easily caught on lying. Because unlike all the other villagers, they would have to lie.
I read this as "maybe veer away from lists" and just say you're going to commit to one person, even if you don't vote that way. I see where you're coming from as the lists help wolves form bandwagons and this will force them to really push their accusations. Except this will force innocents to do the same, with the same bloody lynching result. It's early and maybe I'm reading all this wrong, but this idea seems as likely to backfire as to succeed.

Then unless something drastic happens in the next 2 hours (and if we're being honest it will. There is the inevitable deadline flurry voting that throws plans off). The point of the exercising of my prior "fake vote" is not so much to say "AHH you back-pedaled you can't back-pedal from your fake vote!" If Legate wasn't a likely option, I would expect a bunch of back-pedaling to take place. The purpose would be to get a look at reasoning for what happened in those 2 hours to either stay with my fake vote or back-pedal from it. Which, in itself is informative
The more I read of Legate's plan the more of a headache I get. It's a high risk high reward situation in my mind.
Innocents are baddies alike make fake votes and then potentially have to backpedal depending on how the wind blows closer to the DL. No matter what it leaves us a trail for Day 2, so that's good. In not making a "I suspect blah, blah" list I think it also helps in the Night. Wolves can't hide behind people's suspect lists during the Day. How often has a wolf appeared on someone's innocent list, a person who is killed in the night, only to use that list as cover later?

But then there's this
Seems that it could be a double-edged sword though; those of evil bent will have a good idea of which way the wind is blowing and plan accordingly.
Because while I see how fake voting can help, clever baddies will find a way to exploit it.
A backpedaling innocent is going to do everything they can to stay alive for the good of the village and they're probably going to look guilty in their attempts. It just takes a few well-placed, persuasive posts to get a baffled innocent lynched.

That's probably enough content to make it look like I'm participating. :rolleyes:

I'm not done catching up, but I must login for work. But I'll be around intermittently in the vain hopes of not falling behind on the discussion.

[Inziladun]

There's been some talk about Cobbler-identifying along the way as well. But the rules state that the Cobbler counts for the Innocent tally, so picking them out over finding wolves doesn't really help matters. I recall games where knowing someone was the Cobbler was a relief because at least you could then just ignore the crazy, though!

Right. For wolves, they want to know who it is so as not to kill xem. Everyone else just wants to be able to discount what they say and do.

Legate then seems quite keen on the idea! But I can't work out whether he means that people should say their votes and then actually vote, because of where he says about flip-flopping here, which suggests he means they could change their minds between stating who they would vote for and then actually voting. Rather than saying who you would vote for but then not voting. If the former, that strikes me as just the same as what people normally do, where they make a list or put forward an idea of who they might vote for a while before the deadline - which I think most people tend to do. If the latter ... it still makes no sense.

It was all about basically saying who you would vote for ahead of actually doing it. Just formalizing it in a way.

So was G55 just putting the idea out there to see who would bite? She specifically states here (post 38 - I cannot work out this quoting thing) that she isn't in favour of her own idea. Now, Day 1 discussion can be tough. I mean look, it's her idea that's meant I can really write anything, so on the one hand this is brilliant. It's got people talking, it means there's something to say! But she does seem to be backing away from it quite sharply.

And left it looking like Legate's ball.

Interesting. Does this suggest a wolf ending up in the QT early on could be an advantage to the wolves? Because if they were there the first QT day they could control the vote? I suppose after that they're pretty much useless, though. Why do I feel like if Nilp was here he'd jump at the chance to self-vote and try it out? :D

Not useless, because they can still try to mislead the Innocents in the QT by going after their fellows. They still have the advantage of knowing who's on which side.

I'd say the biggest problem with this whole discussion was the use of the phrase: fake vote. Why on earth didn't they get called: planned votes?

As opposed to unplanned votes? ;)

So, the Cobbler counts for the innocents, but if the Cobbler ends up in the QT and their role is known, and the role of any wolves in the QT is also known, does that then advantage the wolves in terms of numbers and help them control the vote - because they all know who each other is even if they can't communicate and so would all just vote the same if that would beat/tie the vote. I was just trying to work out whether trying to keep them in the Game Thread would be a better option, because at least here they don't know who the wolves are. But then their role wouldn't be confirmed either. Ugh

Well, we can't "keep them in the Game Thread" without knowing who they are. At least not on purpose.

Speaking of that, I also don't know why some people *glances in the direction of Pitch and G55* were spending so much time discussing last-minute voting and stuff. Last-minute voting will happen no matter what, it has been like that since the dawn of time, discussing it has about as much merit as discussing whether the village should try to lynch Wolves in order to win.

But wasn't that the purported point of the "fake" vote: to keep last-ditch voting down?

Last thought: I second Lommy and Greenie about not focussing on Cobbler. I think that's about the extent of that we should give them. We are likely to accidentally lynch them anyway, mistaking them for a Wolf, but every post spent on discussing the Cobbler is only more distraction from our main goal. Which is exactly what the Cobbler wants. Talk about vicious circle.

A Cobbler would only want to be lynched if it was down to xem or a wolf. Otherwise, the chance of hitting xem is the same as anyone else.

x/d with Kit

[Huinesoron]

Ah, Eonwe has the same gist of the whole thing as I do. It's a bit of a relief to have someone else see it the same way by this point! And Hui, although he seems to be suggesting a Pitch-Legate wolf duo as well.

I'm trying to decide whether I think Legate or G55 makes me more uneasy.

I don't know that I particularly suggested Pitch-Legate; I just can't see what wolf!Legate would be up to. He's deliberately drawn attention to himself, and if Pitch was working with him, it would be to take that focus off G55.

But on the other hand, this:

Speaking of that, I also don't know why some people *glances in the direction of Pitch and G55* were spending so much time discussing last-minute voting and stuff.

Coming from the person who was so involved in swinging the conversation due voting practices, this feels slightly disingenuous. (On the other hand, my memory of how hard Legate pushed the whole topic might be skewed by the number of people saying he pushed it.)

For now let me just say that I am pro anything that leaves more data for us to analyse, so in principle I am not against making preliminary votes a thing. As long as we don't take a dogmatic approach that would leave the system open for wolfish exploitation (but that goes for pretty much everything).

I will always support anything with 'data' in the description. ^_^ The longer the paper trail (tail?) the wolves leave, the easier they'll be to catch. But two caveats:

a) We're well past halfway through Day 1, and a bunch of people are asleep. A general 'state your voting intention well before deadline' seems plausible, but I'm not sure there's time to get a solid commitment from the village on Day One. (Of course, choosing not to not!vote is evidence in itself...)

b) Someone (can't find it now) said that we'd need to remember that the voting environment changes before deadline, and I totally agree. If we're shaping up for a near tie between someone I think is maybe guilty and someone I think looks generally fine, then I'm not going to stick by my third-party vote and let the more likely innocent be quarantined!

I think that's been assumed in this discussion, but I'm not sure anyone's come out and said it, and I'm not great with subtext.

(Work update: this is my fourth post, but I've already caught myself checking incoming work emails to see if they might come from wolves. This game gets in your head...)

hS (crossed w/ Kitanna and Zil)

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Most people have posted, I made a list of those who stood out to me in one way or another. It is not complete - meaning, it doesn't have everyone. Generally because they posted little or I don't get any strong vibes either way. This is for the time being, because I don't know how much I am going to be able to post in the following several hours (may be a lot, may be not at all), so better to post now what I have.

Pitch - I originally thought he could be a Cobbler, simply based on his first few posts. The kind of "stir the pot" stuff.

Lommy - nearly ditto. There was some talking in circles from her though, which is normal, and she is maybe a tad more careful than I would normally expect.

Brinniel - I have seen her (and played with her) a couple of times as a Wolf, and her initial posts make red lights flash. Of course, it's Day 1, half the people say noncommital things, yada yada. But in her case, there already were some topics to discuss, and it sounded like she was intentionally picking to comment more on noncommital things. Both her first posts have the same structure: one part - remark on hygienic procedures that is not related to the game, second part - something related to the game but of all topics discussed at the moment, not necessarily the most burning ones. (Now these were notes from some twelve hours ago, her later posts made me think slightly better of her, but... still. I know she's the kind of player who, when she's a Wolf, can stay out of spotlight by doing the right maneuvers, and her behaviour seemed to me like just that.)

Kitanna posted very little to the point of making me wonder whether it was deliberate staying out of discussion while maintaining presence.

(People like Lhuna have also posted zero content and admitted it, but that's a different type of behaviour - I hope to see more from her and similar others still later, of course.)

Lottie has raised some eyebrows, but it seems to me like she acts the way innocent Lottie would.

G55's posting feels horribly aggressive, as in, questioning people on absolutely random points (such as Boro's absolutely random remark), but on second thought, she's doing it consistently and I kind of seem to recall it may be her playing style in general.

Macalaure's first post was fishy as Angband (erm... in the future maybe), meaning, subtly pointing fingers while not accusing straightforwardly. Mesa not like this at all.

Rikae is being rather provocative in the curt yet to-the-point-statements, but that is very typical behaviour. So far I am actually thinking that may be rather a sign of innocence.

Kath's one post was very helpfully structured - okay, actually let me digress here and say that I really like that way of posting, the sort of "evolutionary" approach, so please keep doing that, I'm only happy to read it, because it offers an insight into your thought process (and if you are not innocent, then fabricated one, which would also be very useful) -
---but anyway, obviously, this does not indicate her innocence or guilt in any way, but so far leaning innocent-ish. She would, however, easily post the same thing even as a Wolf (for instance, either as an innocent, she's genuinely spotting the real course of events, while as a Wolf, she may have decided to single out that particular issue and then subtly point fingers at the "misinterpreters" like Pitch, Mac, then also G55 etc. It'd be actually a very convenient arrangement, but, I may also be happy that Kath is posting such detailed things so relatively early for once, so I am reserving imagining the worst-case scenarios here.)

Eönwë seemed okay (but waiting for more content there). So does Huinesoron thus far.

Hi, Rune. Hope to see more from you. Same goes for Sally, Urwen... and whomever else I missed now.

Ok, I'll post this, see whom I crossposted with, then see how much post-able I am in the near future... But this is the state of my thought process at the moment.

Edit: x-ed with Kitanna, Zil, and HS.

[Lalaith]

Oof. Three pages of posts already. Five wolves in there somewhere causing chaos, with a cobbler urging them on.
I'd better get reading....

[Boromir88]

Before leaving I had spent a lot of time with this on my mind. Now, now, it's not a "list" per se, more my general perceptions of behavior and style. Please feel free to correct if any of this is wrong. :p

Thinlómien - usually can get a good feeling of "ordo," from her famed "flip-floppy" style. Even within the same comment, it's like witnessing a debate with herself. Harder to sense if she's gifted or evil, because she'll be the same regardless. But as evil, her flip-flopping looks more practiced and rehearsed and not that feeling of "an ordo naturally debating and second-guessing herself all the time."

Legate of Amon Lanc - The theorizer, expect long analytical approach. Someone who always wants to be in the thick of the conversation. Someone I inevitably, if both of us are around in the later days, end up in a fight with that consumes an entire day (at minimum)

Huinesoron - newer player. Can't peg him into an expected style. Previously, appeared to be the sort who wants to get his hands in there and be involved in everything.

Loslote - in a similar way to sally, I get a sense she strives to have fun. Does leave a lengthier insight to follow by way of her reasoning/voting rationale.

Pitchwife - loves the Day 1 statistics stuff. Tends to be more active and will get involved/engage in just about everything. Despite that, an air that he does like holding his thoughts back.

Kath - I really just want to know when the next time she'll remember a Day 1 vote deadline? :rolleyes: Flies under the radar in a few contributions per day. The few contributions do get rather lengthy, in terms of providing insight and then you see why it's usually just 1-2 posts a day. Sooo long.

Galadriel55 - Can seem random. I'd describe it as inquisitive. Does not shy away from asking any question to any one.

Lhunardawen - She goes back to the very beginning times. I've got to reach deep back in my memory to recall her style. The one this exercise will help me in the least, since she's like a newcomer, but not a newcomer. Add to "fly under the radar" group.

Inziladun - I get a distinct sense that I always want to lynch Inzil Day 1. Do you get that too? No matter what, maybe it's a lynchable looking neck, I get this uncontrollable voice on Day 1 that says "vote to lynch Inzil." Then the voice subsides after Day 1. Count him in the gets into the conversation/engaging group.

Kitanna - Add to "fly under the radar" group. Analytical and perceptive.

A Little Green - Tries to give off the impression that she's "flying under the radar" but perception tells me she's the opposite. Whether innocent or wolf, if she's got the time, there's a good bet she strives to be involved in the big stuff, but likes to give off a different impression.

Boromir88 (Chime in with whatever floats your boats)

Urwen -No prior data to form anything.

Lalaith - Regardless of role, add to "fly under the radar" group. Additionally, I'd say reliable to make votes and deadlines.

Brinniel - Add to "fly under the radar" group. Regardless of role is adept at avoiding suspicion/attracting attention. A contrarian to the accepted norms.

Eönwë - Add to "fly under the radar" group. Straight to business approach. Been too long to form more solid impression.

Macalaure - No joke, but the 1 person who frightens me more than any one else I've encountered. Prefers to be involved. Not someone I want to end up in a fight with, because only one of us comes out and my money is on Mac.

Rikae - a wild card. I have trouble pinpointing/figuring out whether what she's trying to accomplish is good or evil. But regardless of role, strives to accomplish something.

Rune Son of Bjarne - Been a long time for Rune as well. I'd assign to a "not a list maker" group. When there is the time, he does prefer to get involved. Opposite of Legate's lengthy, analytical approach. Rune takes the shorter, one-on-one interaction approach.

THE Ka - A long time for The Ka as well...add to "fly under the radar" group. Can't recall anything more solid to go off of.

Satansaloser2005 - silly, silly cupcake. Strives to brighten up a place with her silliness. Funny how you can see the differences in how our minds work. I used a double-negative to express I'll return a goofball. She didn't use a negative to assure the same. Regardless of role, prefers not to leave a long trail to follow. Any solid conclusions, primarily based on her votes.

Shastanis Althreduin - sometimes is engaged, sometimes less engaged, but someone I always want to keep tabs on. Similar to Rikae, in hard for me to pinpoint between good or evil intentions, but strives to always be up to something.

Will any of this help me with decisions and more decision? Eh, who knows, but instead of having all that floating around in my head. "Putting it all down on paper" as they say, gets it out of my head. Onwards and upwards to more exercises that will further organize my head.

Assumed edit: that this x-ed with some people.

[Thinlómien]

I feel like there's a lot of people who managed to 'contribute' by just talking about no-votes.You've got to start the discussion from somewhere. I would, however, side eye everyone whose only contribution toDay will boil down to discussing the no-votes.

I totally understand that kind of thought process (I tend towards parenthetical irrelevancies myself), but I'm also wondering whether, for what is after all a 'first game back' for most of you, there's an element of playing into your** own legend: deliberately heightening your 'trademarks' to cover up for any suspicious behaviour.

**'Your' here indicates a general thought, not specifically about Thinlomien; I don't know half of you half as well as I should like, and certainly not well enough to know who's acting 'as expected'.That's certainly a fair point. I mean whenever I'm a wolf I'm certainly trying to roleplay innocent me to a degree, and if you have established trademark quirks, it helps to follow those. So anyone sounding like a parody of their usual self is worth looking at.

[Boromir88]

So, groups of tabs...

The don't have to keep a tab on because they let you know when they are present in that "in your face" style group:

Lommy
Legate
G55
Pitch
Inzil

The keep a tab on because they "fly under the radar" and I lack a solid memory group:

Lhuna
Kit
Eonwe
The Ka

The keep a "slightly lesser tab on because they fly under the radar" but I have a better memory of group:

Kath
Lalaith
Brinn

The keep a tab on because of they're a wild card, but let their plots play out and then we should probably lynch them group:

Greenie
Rikae
Shasta

Edit: accidentally hit enter before finishing my groups :-( ahh I'll just continue into the next post

[Huinesoron]

Huinesoron - newer player. Can't peg him into an expected style. Previously, appeared to be the sort who wants to get his hands in there and be involved in everything.

https://i.imgur.com/krUaCepm.png

Yeah, 'be involved in everything' kind of sums me up. :D

I'm seeing a lot of people (Rikae, Legate, slightly Boro) making comments that Macalaure looks suspicious, and that worries me because he didn't ping any of my bells at all. So far as I can see this is his only post:

Ah, Day 1. Where all we can do is make up reasons out of thin air.

*sniffs*

Ugh, nah. The air over Dor-lomin isn't what it used to be. And here people say that the air would be cleaner if everybody stayed in their village.

Anyway.

Fakes votes, eh?

If we mean fake votes instead of real ones, to avoid a Day1 lynch, I don't see the usefulness in that. Since those votes lack any consequence, it's the easiest thing for wolves to throw their votes at whoever, or wolf-on-wolf without the risk that comes with it.

If we mean a deadline before the deadline. Really? What about the people with tighter schedules. We can't expect everybody to be available for two deadlines.

Worse, the day after people will be too quick to jump on those who changed their mind from one deadline to the next. Wolves, on the other hand, lacking conscience, will have a very easy time showing consistency.

I find it very odd how very enthusiastic Legate is about this. My immediate thought was the one that Gala had, too: very cobblerish. A wolf wouldn't stick their head out that far, and one would expect an innocent person to be a bit more measured in their response, weighing pros and cons. Not saying a wolf can't fake a careful approach, of course.

As far as I can see, most of it is agreement with and slight expansion on what other people had said; is that what you meant by 'fishy as Angband', Legate? You talk about pointing fingers, but other than the explicit point at Galadriel55, it all looks like fairly general musing on wolves.

I guess I'm just feeling wary about how unsupported some of these suspicions seem.

~

Looking back over my own earlier suspects, Lommy seems to have 'calmed down' a bit (if that's the term; eased off, maybe?), which could back up the idea that her early posts were basically banter. I don't think G55 and - especially - Pitch have been back on, so I'm in the More Data Required stage there.

hS

(Crossed with Boro's (first?) 'tabs' post.)

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

a) We're well past halfway through Day 1, and a bunch of people are asleep. A general 'state your voting intention well before deadline' seems plausible, but I'm not sure there's time to get a solid commitment from the village on Day One. (Of course, choosing not to not!vote is evidence in itself...)

b) Someone (can't find it now) said that we'd need to remember that the voting environment changes before deadline, and I totally agree. If we're shaping up for a near tie between someone I think is maybe guilty and someone I think looks generally fine, then I'm not going to stick by my third-party vote and let the more likely innocent be quarantined!


I think agree with these points.

Regarding b) this is what i mean about us being undogmatic in our approach. Circumstances change and we will have to adapt, so there should never be an automated response to a person deviating from their preliminary vote (or previous statements for that matter). They should however be able to defend it to a reasonable extent.

[Kitanna]

So I got woken up in the middle of the night by a spam call, and so here I am. Again.
What spam monster calls in the middle of the night?!


Originally Posted by Galadriel55 View Post
You’re arrested for Gate-breaking, and Tearing up of Rules, and Assaulting Gate-keepers, and - errr, that is, you're accused of Generalizing, Exaggerating, and Deliberately Misinterpreting and Misrepresenting Other Posts. I challenge you to defend your statements!
Defend, hm? Just jokingly summarizing the initial conversation. I was curious to see what sort of reaction it would get, though.
*side eyes both* Orchestrated wolf action? I suppose not likely, but the more I read of G55 the more I raise my eyebrows.
She distanced herself from her own idea, was quick to challenge Legate when he found the merit in it, and has been fairly vocal throughout. And yet, when I try to think of anything detailed she said, I draw a blank. She's been helpful and has urged on discussion and I'm finding her a little too helpful.
It really struck me how strongly Pitch seemed to be pinning the no-vote concept on Legate, even though G55 had originally proposed it and (I think) had been the main proponent up to that point. I wondered whether this might be WolfPitch (PitchFector?) trying to put the heat on Legate specifically, but why not let it stay on G55? I think someone suggested that G55's backdown could be a wolf trying to pull away from a bad idea, which could mean WolfPitch was protecting GaladriWolf, but spotting two wolves at once seems a bit much for Day 1.
On the one hand G55 set something up and waited for an innocent to take the bait and then distanced herself the moment it fell under scrutiny. Her move is a bold one for a Day 1 ploy to try to bandwagon an innocent. Bold and fairly early in the Day.
On the other hand wolfPitch sees an idea that is probably doomed to fail. He picks the second person to pick it up and doesn't really cast suspicion on the actual creator. Pitch then sets up Legate for trouble.
In the whole fake vote debate, I am leaning toward trusting Legate over G55 who first suggested it and Pitch who was so vocal in disputing it.
Still trying to read through between actual, boring work.

[Boromir88]

The keep a tab on to always be aware of where they are group:

Mac
Rune

The don't have to keep a tab on group because I'm always aware of where they are group:

sally
Lottie

The keep a tab on because I have no tab on group:

Huinesoron
Urwen

Onto finish page 3 and cast a "fake" vote. I read that whole situation as more like a guideline or recommendation, not an enforced mandate. Although I sort of missed the part about a second "fake dl" to tie it into the QT's deadline to vote. That's kind of important to the plan and would be a logistics nightmare. My intention is to try it as a guideline and exercise for myself.

[Macalaure]

People are writing a crazy amount of crazy long posts on Day1 already. We need to start quarantining some of y'all! Nothing but quotes and one-liners for you!

and Inzil and Mac have suggested he's infected?Waitawhat? I only said he looked like a cobbler.

It really struck me how strongly Pitch seemed to be pinning the no-vote concept on Legate, even though G55 had originally proposed itThis I found odd, too.

I'm not a list maker*proceeds to write up two big lists just one page later* :rolleyes:

I'm seeing a lot of people (Rikae, Legate, slightly Boro) making comments that Macalaure looks suspicious,I do seem to have a habit of rubbing people wrong on Day1. I swear I don't do it on purpose! I admit it amuses me greatly when it happens though. :D

Macalaure's first post was fishy as Angband (erm... in the future maybe), meaning, subtly pointing fingers while not accusing straightforwardly. Mesa not like this at all.You want straightforward accusations one page into Day1??

subtly point fingers at the "misinterpreters" like Pitch, Mac, then also G55 etc.I find it funny how Legate was all reasonable and discuss-the-matter originally, and now he goes after all the people who cast that little bit of shadow on him.

I get a distinct sense that I always want to lynch Inzil Day 1. Do you get that too?I do get such cravings, too. I try to give him the benefit of the doubt every time, but sometimes he makes it hard for me. I mean:I find it very odd how very enthusiastic Legate is about this. My immediate thought was the one that Gala had, too: very cobblerish. A wolf wouldn't stick their head out that far, and one would expect an innocent person to be a bit more measured in their response, weighing pros and cons. Not saying a wolf can't fake a careful approach, of course.Hmm. Perhaps.This is about the most uncommitted thing I've ever read. :D



(Also, that feeling when the Downs won't let you post four smileys and you have to Sophie's choice one of them...)

[Pitchwife]

So I'm kind of alive after staying up way too long last night and have read most of what has transpired in the meantime, trying to take notes at first but gave up on that because of Achilles & the turtle (the size of this village is insane).


Why did I pressure Legate rather than G55 re the fake votes? The difference between

1) G55 throwing out an idea to stir up a discussion, and

2) Legate picking it up and going "Oh yes that's a good idea let's totally do that!", when I thought it was a) not helpful and b) needlessly overcomplicating things. But my last note on him, on his reply to G55 in #44, was 'actually sensible?'



Speaking of overcomplicating things, where did this whole idea of waiting for guidance from the QT come from? And why would we 'always have to second-guess' the QT vote, as G55 said in #56? Unless there's a quarantined Seer AND the majority of the Cuties are innocent, the QT vote is just another vote that may be rght or wrong or misguided or driven by evil intentions like everybody else's. No way for us to know.

[Inziladun]

I do seem to have a habit of rubbing people wrong on Day1. I swear I don't do it on purpose! I admit it amuses me greatly when it happens though.

Ditto. No matter what side I'm on I get early suspicion. I'd expect no less. ;)

You want straightforward accusations one page into Day1??

Of course! Then there's more reason to bandwaggon the accuser! :p

I find iI do get such cravings, too. I try to give him the benefit of the doubt every time, but sometimes he makes it hard for me. I mean:This is about the most uncommitted thing I've ever read. :D

Again, same. My natural inclination always says you have diabolical intentions, and holding them down in lieu of hard evidence is second nature.

x/d with Pitch

[Pitchwife]

Mac, really? You find it odd how I pinned the no-vote stuff on Legate, when earlier you yourself found it just as odd how enthusiastic he was about it? Now that I find odd! *ping*

[Boromir88]

Yeah, 'be involved in everything' kind of sums me up. :D

I'm seeing a lot of people (Rikae, Legate, slightly Boro) making comments that Macalaure looks suspicious, and that worries me because he didn't ping any of my bells at all. So far as I can see this is his only post:


Huh, interesting. The goal in my post you're referencing wasn't to announce any suspicions. I don't think I've given any suspicions yet. Is that suspicious? Maybe some would say it is, but I did it as a therapeutic exercise. All these people coming back jumbled my head to be filled with "What does Lommy do? What does Greenie do?...etc. It was to "put it all down on paper" as they say and not announce suspicions.

One has to also analyze themselves when trying to analyze others. I invite anyone to chime in on me. Here's an analysis on myself:

At the heart, I'm combative. I like to be a thorn. Sometimes I end up a thorn in people's pinky fingers, sometimes their kneecaps, sometimes a thorn in their eyes, but I hope to be a thorn in their side. I charge straight towards confrontation with just about anyone and everyone....except Mac. Which was my point on him. It's my nature to be combative and I will be a thorn in Mac's sides if there's warrant for it. There's always that hesitation that I don't get when I confront anyone else.

It's like Gandalf versus the Balrog to use that analogy. To me, he's got a powerful and deserved reputation. I'll go for it, but I don't charge head on, because I know I won't come out the same person.

Edit: Crossed with Pitch twice and Inzil

[Inziladun]

Why did I pressure Legate rather than G55 re the fake votes? The difference between

1) G55 throwing out an idea to stir up a discussion, and

2) Legate picking it up and going "Oh yes that's a good idea let's totally do that!", when I thought it was a) not helpful and b) needlessly overcomplicating things. But my last note on him, on his reply to G55 in #44, was 'actually sensible?'

I find myself not suspecting you, and that in itself ought to raise alarm bells. ;)

Speaking of overcomplicating things, where did this whole idea of waiting for guidance from the QT come from? And why would we 'always have to second-guess' the QT vote, as G55 said in #56? Unless there's a quarantined Seer AND the majority of the Cuties are innocent, the QT vote is just another vote that may be rght or wrong or misguided or driven by evil intentions like everybody else's. No way for us to know.

As I and others have said. If the majority in the QT are known innocents, we know they won't intentionally avoid going for a baddie, but that's all.

x/d with Pitch and Boro

[Lhunardawen]

I don't know when it happened, but I got to a point of "on this one day, Boro, you can do you. Why shouldn't you have fun with it?"
You mean like this?

++NILPAURIO-- I mean

++LHUNARDAWEN

Now that that's out of the way...



Dismissing early posts because of the "nothing really happens" argument is dismissing part of the evidence.
But they barely feel like evidence taken in isolation toDay. Cumulatively in the coming Days, maybe, but very rarely toDay.

Worse, the day after people will be too quick to jump on those who changed their mind from one deadline to the next. Wolves, on the other hand, lacking conscience, will have a very easy time showing consistency.
Sounds right. The only logical reason a wolf would swing a last-minute vote from a non-wolf would be to protect a fellow wolf; it's far too early in the game to sacrifice a packmate (unless they play a bold game since there are a lot of them anyway). And with a village this large, the odds are still higher that votes will be cast against an innocent than a wolf.

I was referring to not voicing serious suspicions before the QT vote, which would make for a very unproductive day, no trails, lazy justifications. and a good environment for wolves to hide, which is why (I hope) innocents will avoid doing it.
Agree. I'd be wary of those who take too much stock of the QT vote when considering their own vote.

I mean, sure, if the only Cuties are innocent you can trust they won’t vote for an innocent person on purpose, but while they might have conversations we’re not privy to, they don’t know anything more than we do. (This is barring the existence of a Cutie Seer, obviously, in which case I agree Cutie votes should have more weight in our decision-making.)
I don't know. I mean, even if the Seer dreams of a wolf, if xe dies without revealing their dream(s), it's as good as nothing for the living. It doesn't seem safe for the living to assume that just because the Seer is in the QT and they vote for someone, that means the Seer dreamt that that someone is a wolf. Does that make sense? More to the point, am I making sense out of how a dead thread works? Newcomer here, never played with one. :p

I gotta applaud Legate for getting the discussion rolling by taking G55's fake lynch idea seriously and running with it; however I'm very confused why he'd do this (ordo trying to be helpful? wolf trying to look helpful? cobbler trying to distract people?).
Any role trying to gauge reactions for whatever purpose (like Rikae did)?

*I'm a scientist; I can't bring myself to say 'theory' on so little data.
Oh, a Downer after my own heart.

Why do I feel like if Nilp was here he'd jump at the chance to self-vote and try it out?
Not a wolf, but Nilp made me do this. :p

Work update: this is my fourth post, but I've already caught myself checking incoming work emails to see if they might come from wolves.
Hmm? Is this a slip? :eek:



Since I've always struggled reading much into Day 1 banter - yes, even the ones with debates over crazy plans that never come to fruition - and my post-work brain has pretty much turned to mush, I will let my gut take charge. These are who I feel uneasy about so far toDay:

Brinn - just enough input to be visible, but feels careful. Noncommittal. Slippery.

Zil - if he's a wolf, he'll just hide under a cover of making sense.

Kitanna - jumpy, but maybe just an anxious ordo

Mac - scary. Yep, despite having only one post (I think) so far.

Boro - I don't know, I just don't trust him. And with 59 games under his belt, he seems like he's capable of unfathomable depths of deceit.

The rest fall into the categories of either talkative, speculative, and argumentative yet genuinely helpful OR practically non-existent. Or Shasta.


Ugh, I'm too tired, it's getting late, this took longer than I expected.


(Crossposted with likely so many people I won't even bother to enumerate)

[Kitanna]

For someone so against, or possible skeptical of their use to him, Boro certainly has made a few. All of which kind of say the same thing. "These are people under the radar, these are people I think are wild cards, etc."

Boromir88 (Chime in with whatever floats your boats)
Speaks and seems logical on the surface, but on delving deeper, doesn't really say much.

I find it funny how Legate was all reasonable and discuss-the-matter originally, and now he goes after all the people who cast that little bit of shadow on him.
His response does seem like a natural response when a player comes under fire like he did. Not to say I absolve him, but it doesn't strike me as overly wolfy behavior.
In the whole Legate, G55, and Pitch discussion I'd wager there's a wolf hidden, setting up two innocents to take the bait. Yet each time I read back, I switch who I think is most likely the wolf.
I thought Legate might be the innocent party until post #88
Something about the whole post feels, I don't know, contrived? I can't place my finger on it. Like G55 it feels like he's distancing himself from the fake DL, fake vote discussion.
I'm finding it hard to explain why this sets me off, but I'm going to try in the most coherent way.
Legate drew a lot of attention, but I didn't really feel many were overly suspicious of him. There's been some talk, but nothing to indicate everyone is convinced and ready to bandwagon. I'd say more people raised eyebrows toward G55 and Pitch, myself included, because of how G55 distanced herself from her idea and how Pitch threw it all into Legate's lap. In all that, Legate did look like a misguided, attempting to be helpful innocent. But maybe that's how he wants to be viewed? He's been helpful, at least, in stirring up conversation. And yet, his list post of his thoughts in #88 just rings of false platitudes and him trying to put himself under the radar again. He came, he made a lot of noise, and now just there with a list.

[Huinesoron]

Why did I pressure Legate rather than G55 re the fake votes? The difference between

1) G55 throwing out an idea to stir up a discussion, and

2) Legate picking it up and going "Oh yes that's a good idea let's totally do that!", when I thought it was a) not helpful and b) needlessly overcomplicating things. But my last note on him, on his reply to G55 in #44, was 'actually sensible?'

Ah, thank you. I won't say I'm 100% convinced - I don't remember getting the same feel as you describe from the G55/Legate posts before yours - but having some explanation helps.

Mac, really? You find it odd how I pinned the no-vote stuff on Legate, when earlier you yourself found it just as odd how enthusiastic he was about it? Now that I find odd! *ping*

... up until you become the fourth (third, if we accept Boro's assertion that he wasn't stating suspicion) person pointing fingers at Macalaure, which I still don't see.


Hmm? Is this a slip? :eek:

Hah, I never even thought of that reading. Oddly enough, I did get a misdirected email today which went quiet very quickly when I said as much, so I think Customer Analytical Services looks veeeery suspicious right now.

hS

(Crossed with Kitanna)

[Brinniel]

The only logical reason a wolf would swing a last-minute vote from a non-wolf would be to protect a fellow wolf; it's far too early in the game to sacrifice a packmate (unless they play a bold game since there are a lot of them anyway). And with a village this large, the odds are still higher that votes will be cast against an innocent than a wolf.
Not necessarily. I've been in games where a wolf was lynched on Day 1 and a packmate went unsuspected for a long time because they were partly responsible for lynching them. It's certainly a risky move, but can pay off for a wolf who is daring enough.

FYI, I am doing my best to keep up here, but seeing that I'm in the midst of my workday up until deadline, my participation is limited.

[Pitchwife]

So this is the second time toDay that a person implies a lack of evidence in people's early posts *squints at Lommy and Ka*. Are you in cahoots, or you're just both coincidentally trying to subtly turn people away from the idea of focusing on existing evidence and pretending all the evidence will come later?
Er, no. Ka didn't say there's no evidence in early posts, just that evidence is more concentrated, thus easier to find, in the last minute flurry than in the rest of the Day. This strikes me as twisting words and 'subtly turning' suspicion on both Lommy and Ka. *ping*



(By the way Ka, what are 'bunk confessionals'?)

[Lhunardawen]

Unless there's a quarantined Seer AND the majority of the Cuties are innocent, the QT vote is just another vote that may be rght or wrong or misguided or driven by evil intentions like everybody else's. No way for us to know.
THIS.

Mac is amusing. But still scary.

Now to bed. I will wear a face mask as I sleep; I suggest you all do the same. Maybe this way the Evil Breath won't get us, who knows.

[Kath]

When it comes to single top suspects vs lists, both have their pros and cons and leave material to analyze later on. Me, I like lists. Here's one, just to get the ball rolling:

Pitchwife
G55
Macalaure

But you didn't indicate what is that a list of. Of what? Top suspects?

I read this as Rikae saying one suspect vs suspect list and then going for the list option. So I'm assuming this was a list of current suspects.

Because while I see how fake voting can help, clever baddies will find a way to exploit it.
A backpedaling innocent is going to do everything they can to stay alive for the good of the village and they're probably going to look guilty in their attempts. It just takes a few well-placed, persuasive posts to get a baffled innocent lynched.
Agreed. An innocent trying to change their mind, especially if prone to getting cross when defensive, is likely to end up as cannon fodder.

In a move so reminiscent of Lommy I almost had to check to make sure it wasn't her, Mr 'I don't do lists' Boro then immediately comes out with hundreds. Ok, two, but still.

That's certainly a fair point. I mean whenever I'm a wolf I'm certainly trying to roleplay innocent me to a degree, and if you have established trademark quirks, it helps to follow those. So anyone sounding like a parody of their usual self is worth looking at.
I think it will be really interesting to see how those who are relative newbies to these games see the old-timers. Will they pick up on supposed traits/quirks or have we actually changed as players over time without realising? An end of game discussion on that will be fascinating!

Mac, really? You find it odd how I pinned the no-vote stuff on Legate, when earlier you yourself found it just as odd how enthusiastic he was about it? Now that I find odd! *ping*
A Pitch vs Mac fight seems to be brewing ...

Lhuna!! We are Nilp-less and STILL we have been Nilp'ed!

By the way, I'm assuming all votes are final? I'm sure I've played in games where they can be taken back but am assuming not this one?

[Lalaith]

Still reading. As far as I can see everyone has now posted?

I feel very confused about the point of this false deadline business. Is that an idea just for toDay or a more general thing? Either way, Mac is right that we can't get/expect 100% turnout on false deadlines because of people having genuine RL commitments, and then of course we will have wolves avoiding the false deadline, by claiming they were busy elsewhere.

One thing I'm looking out for. With five wolves about, I suspect some of them will be picking fights with each other - they can afford to do some showboaty bickering to divert attention from potential allegiances.

What in Arda is Lhuna doing? Honouring family traditions?

[Macalaure]

Mac, really? You find it odd how I pinned the no-vote stuff on Legate, when earlier you yourself found it just as odd how enthusiastic he was about it? Now that I find odd! *ping*Stop... pinging people! :D

Actually though, I went to reread your post, and I think I see where you're coming from, so never mind that.

You do seem tense though...

In the whole Legate, G55, and Pitch discussion I'd wager there's a wolf hidden, setting up two innocents to take the bait. Yet each time I read back, I switch who I think is most likely the wolf.I don't like this kind of argument. It always feels to me like a wolf seeing a group of innoncents bashing each other and then going "One of them is a wolf!".

I know I'm guilty of contributing to it, but I think we're focusing on this whole LGP stuff too much now.


And why are people scared of me? :eek:

[Pitchwife]

Some thoughts on people I haven't talked about yet:


Brinn - low profile, mostly sounds very sensible, but could be anything. In #70 she almost copies Rikae's shortlist from the post before, with the exception of swapping Mac for Zil. I dunno, would that be too blatant for a baddie?
Then there's the short debate between her and G55 about whether dead wolves can PM. If either of them were a wolf, you'd expect they'd already have discussed that at Night, and possibly asked Nog about it, so this looks innocent, right? Unless that is what it's supposed to look like.



Ka - sensible, sounds genuine but mostly discusses mechanics, no or little opinions on people as far as I've seen. Could be anything.


Boro - his bubbly attitude of "it's D1, enjoy it, anything goes" is not what I'd expect from a wolf. Unless it's a facade, but leaning innocentish for now.


(tbc)

[Boromir88]

Ok, they're not lists. See them as tabs...groups of tabs. :rolleyes: Any attempt of mental lists scrambled me up so to try organizing I did groups, not lists.

If the DL was now I would vote for...

++In *No stop it.* ++Legate

Excluding anything I said myself so far, I concur with this point the most:
Why did I pressure Legate rather than G55 re the fake votes? The difference between

1) G55 throwing out an idea to stir up a discussion, and

2) Legate picking it up and going "Oh yes that's a good idea let's totally do that!", when I thought it was a) not helpful and b) needlessly overcomplicating things. But my last note on him, on his reply to G55 in #44, was 'actually sensible?'~Pitch

There is a difference between the two.

I find it very odd how very enthusiastic Legate is about this. My immediate thought was the one that Gala had, too: very cobblerish. A wolf wouldn't stick their head out that far, and one would expect an innocent person to be a bit more measured in their response, weighing pros and cons. Not saying a wolf can't fake a careful approach, of course.~Mac
What you must ask though is not "would a wolf stick their head out that early?" but would a Legate-wolf do it? With a pack of 5 there's higher incentive to start out bolder. Because it means you have 4 companions who can throw their weight around and steer it in favor or opposed to Legate depending on how the winds go. Where the rest of us rely only on ourselves.

Edit: Added "Mac" to the 2nd quote, to clarify that it was from him.

[Loslote]

In the whole Legate, G55, and Pitch discussion I'd wager there's a wolf hidden, setting up two innocents to take the bait. Yet each time I read back, I switch who I think is most likely the wolf.

I've been going back and forth on who I think looks most wolf-like of those three, too. I tend to be more suspicious of G55 and Pitch at first glance, but I've had a very hard time getting a good feel on Legate.

It really struck me how strongly Pitch seemed to be pinning the no-vote concept on Legate, even though G55 had originally proposed it and (I think) had been the main proponent up to that point. I wondered whether this might be WolfPitch (PitchFector?) trying to put the heat on Legate specifically, but why not let it stay on G55? I think someone suggested that G55's backdown could be a wolf trying to pull away from a bad idea, which could mean WolfPitch was protecting GaladriWolf, but spotting two wolves at once seems a bit much for Day 1.

Or does it? On rethinking, catching wolves by their interactions with each other doesn't seem too far-fetched?

I also thought it was very interesting, after reading this, to see Pitch follow it up with:

Er, no. Ka didn't say there's no evidence in early posts, just that evidence is more concentrated, thus easier to find, in the last minute flurry than in the rest of the Day. This strikes me as twisting words and 'subtly turning' suspicion on both Lommy and Ka. *ping*

Pitch brings up one of G55's first posts, which has been commented on before, and throws a bit of suspicion her way. This looks to me like Pitch doesn't want to be tied to G55 or seen as defending her, and it makes me more likely to believe Huin's hypothesis that they might both be wolves.

[Huinesoron]

I don't like this kind of argument. It always feels to me like a wolf seeing a group of innoncents bashing each other and then going "One of them is a wolf!".

I know I'm guilty of contributing to it, but I think we're focusing on this whole LGP stuff too much now.

Now this is interesting. I don't think I agree with the first paragraph - I still think there's something suspect going on in the LGP matrix - but as far as I can see, Mac is the main other person with multiple people throwing significant suspicion at them. I can't see a wolf in that position trying to divert attention from the only people diverting attention from them.

... unless that's the point? I dunno; I'd like to hear from some of the people who think Macalaure is dodgy, see how this post affects their thinking. (I would also still like to see more out of G55, and am I wrong, or did Lommy pop up after I said I was suspicious of her, then vanish again as soon as I said that had eased a bit?)

hS (crossed with Boro & Loslote)

[Loslote]

Now this is interesting. I don't think I agree with the first paragraph - I still think there's something suspect going on in the LGP matrix - but as far as I can see, Mac is the main other person with multiple people throwing significant suspicion at them. I can't see a wolf in that position trying to divert attention from the only people diverting attention from them.

I find myself agreeing with Huin pretty frequently. I like his point here about Mac - I didn't pick up on the vibe about Mac that other people did to begin with, though.

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

Okay there is too much going on to go thoroughly through it all, but after all I was never a list maker (right Boro?)

The person I worry the most about is probably G55. I do like that she gets the ball rolling, throwing ideas out there, but I do not care for the turn on legate in #38. If we talk about stuff as fluffy as vibes, she gives me both kinds, which is infuriating.

Just so you know I am biased (or blind) in some ways. I naturally suspect Loslote and Eonwe, I believe it has always been thus. I always want to believe the best of Lhuna, I know it has always been thus.


The people giving a wholesome vibe at the moment is Legate: Measured, nicely articulated why he thought it a good idea to force the hand of those infected. It obviously doesn't hurt that I agree with the strategy. And Pitch again I think he has a reasonable approach and do not try to fight strawmen or twist people's words.

[Pitchwife]

Hui - considering our last game together, a healthy dose of Pitchwolf paranoia is to be expected from him. Nothing standing out so far, leaning innocentish.


Rikae - seems their usual self


Shasta - see Rikae

Kath - cool, calm, collected and level-headed; almost too good to be true?


Kitanna - I generally like the way she makes her arguments, if not necessarily her conclusions (about myself at least), up to the point of "There must be a wolf among these three (but I haven't yet decided who)". Mac may be right pointing this out as a convenient wolf tactic, but since I'm wary of Mac himself, where does that leave me?

[satansaloser2005]

I'm here and will be reading. I'll do most of my posting from the work computer, so toDay might be a bit quieter for me since I'm unexpectedly busy with projects.

Also, stop with this fake vote nonsense before it makes me properly suspect people. It doesn't make any sense. :rolleyes:

And, because I promised: Links (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oCiRq9yL5SE) links (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7HS4O0mxl3A) links (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i82528KGDdo).

[Pitchwife]

Now this is interesting. I don't think I agree with the first paragraph - I still think there's something suspect going on in the LGP matrix - but as far as I can see, Mac is the main other person with multiple people throwing significant suspicion at them. I can't see a wolf in that position trying to divert attention from the only people diverting attention from them.
I don't think I've seen that many people suspecting Mac to a significant amount (Rikae, of course, myself a bit, who else?), more like saying he's creepy & scary no matter what. Anyway, it's always good for a wolf pack not to get all entangled in the same skirmish but spread themselves out in several combat zones, so to speak.

[Rikae]

Quick post while working:

I still find G55 worrying, but I seem to recall her being one of those "always suspcious" players in the past, plus the way certain others ... Kath and Brinn ... went after her looks a little opportunistic.
Not enough to make me suspect them yet, but I am making a mental note.

Pitch's interactions with G55 could be a wolf protecting an innocent who is under suspicion so as to rack up some "brownie points" later on, or also a wolf protecting a wolf. His very first banter post seemed nervous to me, and subsequent posts seem calculated.

Why is Mac looking suspicious to me? It's mainly the way he goes after Legate initially. Yes, Legate was the one to push the "fake vote" idea forward seriously, but that felt very innocent to me. He stuck his neck out, provoked conversation, thought aloud, and generally behaved like himself. I would expect Mac to recognize the same thing, and instead he seems to ... take the bait? Nothing else, really, except the gleeful feel in his posts, but that could just be the joy of playing again after such a long time. I don't know. He does love playing as a wolf, but I think he also enjoys looking sinister as an innocent.

Speaking of overcomplicating things, where did this whole idea of waiting for guidance from the QT come from? And why would we 'always have to second-guess' the QT vote,
as G55 said in #56? Unless there's a quarantined Seer AND the majority of the Cuties are innocent, the QT vote is just another vote that may be rght or wrong or misguided or driven
by evil intentions like everybody else's. No way for us to know.

Answer: I think Legate first brought it up, as an explanation for why fake votes would make sense, and I agreed. It was a worry I had since I saw the mechanic in the discussion thread. Yes, it's just one vote, but it will be a vote from a group of people whose roles are known, and therefore, it *will* be a source of valuable information (downplaying that is rather suspicious in itself). My fear is that players will hold back, wait for that information, and then cram the whole day into the last 2 hours. How exactly that would play out depends on the specifics, but in general I think anything that dampens conversation is detrimental to the village (not to mention probably annoying to people for whom the deadline is late).

[Pitchwife]

Right, I've got to run some errands now (properly masked, to be sure!). See you all later.

[Kath]

Now this is interesting. I don't think I agree with the first paragraph - I still think there's something suspect going on in the LGP matrix - but as far as I can see, Mac is the main other person with multiple people throwing significant suspicion at them. I can't see a wolf in that position trying to divert attention from the only people diverting attention from them.
Do you mean that Mac is unlikely to be a wolf because if he was, it would be silly to stop people focusing on Legate-Pitch-G55 and draw suspicion onto himself? Also, is Mac that heavily suspected? It seemed more like Legate and G55 were after the discussion pretty much tailed off.

I don't think I've seen that many people suspecting Mac to a significant amount (Rikae, of course, myself a bit, who else?), more like saying he's creepy & scary no matter what. Anyway, it's always good for a wolf pack not to get all entangled in the same skirmish but spread themselves out in several combat zones, so to speak.
Ah, which I think kind of answers my question. Was it just things like Boro saying he often suspected Inzil and is always wary of Mac? I hadn't really considered those kind of mentions as proper suspicions but maybe I was just assuming that.

[A Little Green]

This is hopeless! Every time I finish reading and click refresh before starting to write my post, there’s like 10 new posts to read :rolleyes: I'll be back with something more substantial soon, but just to recap first -

Looks like since I was last here, first Huinesoron and Kath (and later Inzil, Kitanna and others) make a fair point about how the fake-vote plan got pinned on Legate while its originator, Gal55, distances herself from it quite quickly. The main people implicated by this (aside from Gal herself) are considered to be Pitch, Boro and Mac, though it’s quite likely at least some of them just started discussing it as Legate’s plan because others already were. Pitch then explains that he focused on Legate because he read it as Gal throwing a random idea around and Legate latching on to it and making it into an actual plan. This seems legit enough. (Not sorry. :D) Additionally, Mac gets suspected by Rikae for trigger-happily suspecting Legate when he actually just says Legate is a possible cobbler, and later Legate calls him fishy for “subtly pointing fingers while not accusing straightforwardly” – barely halfway through Day 1. Meanwhile, Boro seems unusually chirpy, Lhuna casts a kamikaze vote and Lommy has progressed to meta-flipflopping.

Whoever said Day 1s are uneventful should have a look at this one. :rolleyes:

Edit: x-ed with Rikae, Pitch and Kath

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Reading and writing as I go... note: the beginning of this is like three hours old. Been checking and typing in between work whenever I had time.

I read this as "maybe veer away from lists" and just say you're going to commit to one person, even if you don't vote that way. I see where you're coming from as the lists help wolves form bandwagons and this will force them to really push their accusations. Except this will force innocents to do the same, with the same bloody lynching result. It's early and maybe I'm reading all this wrong, but this idea seems as likely to backfire as to succeed.

Well, as you see, I just made a list myself. Anyway, the idea was people could do whatever they want, even make lists (I like lists), but then, when the clock strikes, they would have to say "ok and out of my list, I actually pick THIS ONE".

The main benefit of this would be that we could then see who would be "lynched" under such circumstances - and then that could be helpful in tracing the Wolves. Because in "real" voting, WWs are calculating to save their mates and so on. In "dry run", it isn't so clear, and then they may be a bit at loss as to what to do. Would they cast their "pseudo-vote" to "save" their packmate even if it is only a dry run? But what if then the real vote happens and the situation goes the same way and they have to change their vote? They need to provide an explanation. It may draw eyes. Etc etc. THAT was the chief merit behind the theory that was discussed so lengthily here.

Anyway, on another note, Kitanna sorta made my red lights flash now, too.

I'm here to represent the We Hate Day Ones club (or whatever its name ever was). And as much as I agree that with 5 wolves it is statistically more likely to lynch one on Day 1... Well, let's see what the Day brings...
(Now this, this post has no helpful content whatsoever. )
Not helpful whatsoever? I dunno, the need to point out "this wasn't helpful" makes me raise my eyebrows. We already had some posts and discussions going when you chimed in and it just seems suspicious you felt the need to point out you had nothing to add at the time. "Look at me, I'm definitely innocent because I haven't said anything of real merit."

I sorta don't like the way Kitanna points fingers at Lhuna here. Yes, she may have just happened to make that one random observation, but the way it goes...

And the whole "oh I don't know if we should do this or that..." is kinda, I don't know. I simply get "fake vibe" here. Like she was not willing to commit until she learns where the wind blows. (Wind. Get it? *dun dun dun dun* -Note: once again, no relation to Inziladun whatsoever)

But wasn't that the purported point of the "fake" vote: to keep last-ditch voting down?
Yes, but this was already said with the knowledge that this was probably not happening, plus anyway, I still expect people to vote in the last twenty minutes, with or without any "voting dry run". And the votes would change, very likely, in the last few hours, not the least because of people's reactions to the "results" of the dry-run voting (or would they? That's precisely the thing we would not know without trying it first).

Oof. Three pages of posts already. Five wolves in there somewhere causing chaos, with a cobbler urging them on.
I'd better get reading....

That was as fishy first post as they go. "Everyone is a Wolf, hint hint not me."

As far as I can see, most of it is agreement with and slight expansion on what other people had said; is that what you meant by 'fishy as Angband', Legate? You talk about pointing fingers, but other than the explicit point at Galadriel55, it all looks like fairly general musing on wolves.
Pointing fingers "under one's breath", i.e. saying that something is questionable while mentioning a name at the same time, so the reader can connect them themselves while the original poster doesn't need to be perceived as the one who said it in the first place, is one of classic Wolf-tactics, one I am always more inclined to look for.

*side eyes both* Orchestrated wolf action? I suppose not likely, but the more I read of G55 the more I raise my eyebrows.
She distanced herself from her own idea, was quick to challenge Legate when he found the merit in it, and has been fairly vocal throughout. And yet, when I try to think of anything detailed she said, I draw a blank. She's been helpful and has urged on discussion and I'm finding her a little too helpful.

On the one hand G55 set something up and waited for an innocent to take the bait and then distanced herself the moment it fell under scrutiny. Her move is a bold one for a Day 1 ploy to try to bandwagon an innocent. Bold and fairly early in the Day.
On the other hand wolfPitch sees an idea that is probably doomed to fail. He picks the second person to pick it up and doesn't really cast suspicion on the actual creator. Pitch then sets up Legate for trouble.
In the whole fake vote debate, I am leaning toward trusting Legate over G55 who first suggested it and Pitch who was so vocal in disputing it.

This sounds like a Wolf making up a random accusation if I have ever seen one. As in, the type of behaviour a Wolf might have if they are like "I need to find someone to suspect on Day 1, oh, here's some two players saying something, I can latch onto that". That sort of thing for a Wolf who would not be in the thick of things, but would want to just quietly pursue some case in their own little corner.

Also because I don't personally believe that it was an attempt to "set me up", or not in the way people seem to be latching on to presenting it. I think Pitch quite rightfully saw me as expanding on the idea while when G55 mentioned it, it was really just a random remark. I find it much more likely that someone picked on the "this was an attempt to set Legate up" notion to raise suspicion about those who did.

I will reread Kitanna's posts a bit, but she would likely be my "fake vote" toDay, at least (or to put it another way, if I was forced to vote right now).

Mac, really? You find it odd how I pinned the no-vote stuff on Legate, when earlier you yourself found it just as odd how enthusiastic he was about it? Now that I find odd! *ping*
Maybe I shouldn't, but I just find this amusing :D

It's like Gandalf versus the Balrog to use that analogy. To me, he's got a powerful and deserved reputation. I'll go for it, but I don't charge head on, because I know I won't come out the same person.
Man, can I ship ya folks? (Sorry. Lommy taught me that kind of vocabulary.)

You mean like this?

++NILPAURIO-- I mean

++LHUNARDAWEN

Seriously!!! That's about the most unhelpful thing ever!!! I mean, I understand you are substituting Nilp, but I'm with Kant on this one. You shouldn't make the example of doing something that might corrupt others to do the same!

x-ed with plenty probably, I'm still in haphazard schedule on when I am around and when not.

EDIT: x-ed basically since the abovequoted post. Page 4, terrifying. (Although again, with the size of the village, could be worse.)

[THE Ka]

Had to sleep and drive some family into work, but I'm back and wow there's a lot to read backwards...

If he's evil, he's being rather bold, and if he's innocent, a wolf could use his posts to build a case against him. Then again, there could be no wolves involved and they are just quietly letting this play out.

I’m not getting the inclination of much wolfish behavior, even a bold one. You could argue it’s an attempt to just distract villagers from having the time to deduct their own theories by forcing them to both come up with something on the spot and defend themselves with the equivalent of sticks and stones. Then again, the last few hours around DL are typically the same and a veritable gold mine of information the next day.

Only thing is, as much as it disagrees with some of our play styles, it sounds more an attempt to just generate enough evidence in a large group to later sift through. Considering the group in whole is looking like it’s somewhat evenly divided along two main time zone groups, it obviously isn’t going to work for some of us on the outlier which makes it mechanically unappealing. Killing off someone just because they don’t reside in a convenient time zone to you is some bad taste, so it would be difficult to force the entire group into it.

It is a bold suggestion though, but I don’t think ultimately beneficial to a wolf unless they’re exclusively going to play big and bold the entire time (which doesn’t help their fellows from scrutiny unless their whole plan is for one to carry the team, which is rather silly).

It’s the inversion of the typical ‘shake the tree and see what falls out’ approach most of us take and more of a ‘chop the whole thing down and see what it pins beneath and what flies away’. Looking back, it is a newer attempt than what some of us are used to, but I think it was a more genuine attempt to force people to generate opinions. Even disagreeing with its method, I can’t outright find a good reason to fault it as ‘wolf behaviour’. We’re associating the idea with Legate though because they were the first to analyze it at length.

D1 + N2 = 2 players to vote on D2. I believe the thread is inactive at Night, and in any case voting only happens during the Day.

Laying in bed last night when I should’ve been sleeping, I realized this at 3AM… You’re right there would still be the one chosen by vote and the one off’ed in the Night phase.

it’s easy to stick to talking about the loudest, most controversial villagers and topics and let others fly under the radar completely. This tends to serve wolves better than innocents since odds are at least some of them are among the quiet, less attention-seeking crowd.

Similar reason why I am doubting a wolf group would have a plan to just make one of their number as brash and vocal as possible. It might work if we’ve never played before, but for some of us, we know better than to think there wouldn’t be some wolves assuring themselves safety behind any number of theories. I’m not immediately suspicious of the first person to jump behind whoever has the biggest argument. It’s the third or fourth person after it looks like the previous two haven’t been attacked for doing so I’m observing.
I’d be afraid of our wolves flipping the script and doing what we’d least expect, but then I have to remind myself that there is a good possibility some of them are as out of it as we are and don’t really have the security of ‘new tricks’ to try out.

I think overly analyzing the QT vote is ill-advised. As noted, the predominant alignment of those there will be known, and we just keep that in mind when we see their vote. Even if they're mostly Innocent, they could be wrong.

To a point, yes. I guess since we are it’s beta testers we won’t know how it performs until at least after the first few Days. Considering that we’ve confirmed all roles in QT can PM one another (and wolves to fellow wolves) during their night phase, the QT could be used as a ‘second chance’ to try other methods out for both villagers and wolves. They might not vote how we’d prefer of them, whether wrong or no to what we’re championing in the GT.

Of course! Then there's more reason to bandwaggon the accuser!

Alright, I legitimately laughed out loud at this.

[Galadriel55]

Defend, hm? Just jokingly summarizing the initial conversation. I was curious to see what sort of reaction it would get, though.

And I jokingly called you out on deliberately summarizing incorrectly. :smokin: This only serves to sow confusion and derail the village, or give people (you most of all) an excuse to vote based on, frankly, false grounds if the vote is based off this post. My point still stands.

I was referring to not voicing serious suspicions before the QT vote, which would make for a very unproductive day, no trails, lazy justifications. and a good environment for wolves to hide, which is why (I hope) innocents will avoid doing it.

Ah, gotcha. Agreed.

I also disagree with Gal about lists being vague and useless. I personally find them quite helpful; without them it’s easy to stick to talking about the loudest, most controversial villagers and topics and let others fly under the radar completely. This tends to serve wolves better than innocents since odds are at least some of them are among the quiet, less attention-seeking crowd. I’m not saying everyone should do lists, just that I think they can be just as revealing as fake votes (if not more).

Oh yes, making sure you go through everyone is crucial. However, the problem with a list is it can go like this: "I find, T, U, V, W, X, Y, and Z most suspicious, but maybe not, and I'll see where the wind blows before making up my mind on my preferred candidate". Or, "I don't even know who I am suspicious of right now, everyone seems ok, my vote will be wrong anyways" (classic D1 list, no?). Having to pick one person while you make your list has the benefit of then making you have a good explanation if you change your mind.

As for wolves maintaining consistency more easily than innocents - that is true, however wolf-on-wolf wagons would be harder to do as everything often hangs so closely in the balance. Do you try to save your mate, or go against them? It becomes a lot trickier to hide those decisions.

There's been some talk about Cobbler-identifying along the way as well. But the rules state that the Cobbler counts for the Innocent tally, so picking them out over finding wolves doesn't really help matters.

No one cobbler hunts over wolf hunting, but shouldn't it be a sort of secondary goal? And precisely for the reason that you say: the cobbler counts as an innocent. If you have a known cobbler, you have a known innocent. If you have a suspected cobbler, you have a suspected innocent. So you should be wary of what they say, but if it comes to voting for a suspected wolf vs a suspected cobbler, it's very useful to decide for yourself which baddie you think is which.

So Pitch, Lottie, Inzil, Brinn (Brinn quite vociferously!) are firmly against the no lynch. And Pitch seems to feel Legate is the instigator of it, but really I feel that honour goes to G55. I think I'm reading Legate's comments as still with a real vote, whereas G55's suggest no actual vote. And then G55 adds to that focus on Legate.

So was G55 just putting the idea out there to see who would bite? She specifically states here (post 38 - I cannot work out this quoting thing) that she isn't in favour of her own idea. Now, Day 1 discussion can be tough. I mean look, it's her idea that's meant I can really write anything, so on the one hand this is brilliant. It's got people talking, it means there's something to say! But she does seem to be backing away from it quite sharply.

So let me clarify a couple things. There is my Post #26, where I ask a purely hypothetical question, with no intention of going through with any variant of the No Votes idea. Then comes Legate's #31, where he is quite enthusiastic, but as it turns out he was talking about a *different* variation of the idea. Therefore, he was called out on being enthusiatic about a dumb thing, but then applauded for actually being logical when he explained himself later - and why he is, in your later words, the "ringleader" of the idea. And therefore I, when asking the somewhat silly question, did not expect it to evolve to something that could be practically applied, which is why I had to give the *modified and applicable* idea some thought, just like everyone else.

So while you untangle who said what and who is the baddie behind it, try not to get tangled too. It gets messy. ;)


Speaking of hypothetical ideas, this scenario kinda came into my mind last night. So, it's the EndGame, and alive are Wolf, Hunter (hunting the Wolf), and Ordo. Ordo dies. Wolf devours Hunter, but Hunter takes down the wolf. Does either side win?

Cobbler discussion came up again. I can't work this out with my shoddy maths. So, the Cobbler counts for the innocents, but if the Cobbler ends up in the QT and their role is known, and the role of any wolves in the QT is also known, does that then advantage the wolves in terms of numbers and help them control the vote - because they all know who each other is even if they can't communicate and so would all just vote the same if that would beat/tie the vote. I was just trying to work out whether trying to keep them in the Game Thread would be a better option, because at least here they don't know who the wolves are. But then their role wouldn't be confirmed either. Ugh.

As in keeping the person you suspect as a cobbler alive on purpose? Certainly, if there is a person you suspect to be a wolf, because the cobbler doesn't count as a baddie in the tally. But surely, in terms of voting outcomes, a dead cobbler is better than a living cobbler when it comes to votes? After all, the QT just votes once collectively, which means the cobbler may or may not affect the choice of recipient. But a living cobbler always gets a vote. And gets to say a lot of things that mess with the village's head besides.

But you didn't indicate what is that a list of. Of what? Top suspects?

I am confused by your question. Is it that my humour receptors didn't kick in yet, or are you seriously asking if that list is a suspects list - which it obviously is? Like, it's not a list of Boro's groceries. I'm just confused.


I'd say the biggest problem with this whole discussion was the use of the phrase: fake vote. Why on earth didn't they get called: planned votes?
As opposed to unplanned votes?

:-D

Waitawhat? I only said he looked like a cobbler.

Yes, and that's just one of the problems with that post.

Speaking of overcomplicating things, where did this whole idea of waiting for guidance from the QT come from? And why would we 'always have to second-guess' the QT vote, as G55 said in #56? Unless there's a quarantined Seer AND the majority of the Cuties are innocent, the QT vote is just another vote that may be rght or wrong or misguided or driven by evil intentions like everybody else's. No way for us to know.

Yes, that's what I'm getting at. The QT vote can't be treated as a "known dead innocent" (possibly misguided, but still innocent). Because if it's the dead wolves dominating the vote, they know who to vote for. Which actually gives us more information than if the QT is innocently dominated. However, who knows what sort of chaos would be going on in the QT discussions.

++LHUNARDAWEN

You listened (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=723187&postcount=21)! <3
:rolleyes:

Hmm? Is this a slip?

I doubt it, because I can sympathize. Usually during a game I'll have at least one dream where something really weird happens in the game, and will have to check the thread to make sure it hasn't actually happened. The game does get in your head.


I am at post 104. I have probably crossed with many as it took me a loooong time to write this. Will comment on the rest in a bit, and some brief thoughts to follow.

[Rikae]

Went back to figure out why I thought Mac was wolf-suspecting Legate, and I'm really not sure. I was taking notes, I swear, but only noted that he suspected him for flimsy reasons. This is what he said:


I find it very odd how very enthusiastic Legate is about this. My immediate thought was the one that Gala had, too: very cobblerish. A wolf wouldn't stick their head out that far, and one would expect an innocent person to be a bit more measured in their response, weighing pros and cons. Not saying a wolf can't fake a careful approach, of course.

So yeah, something lost in translation. I did, and do, find it to be a flimsy reason, at the very least because I like what Legate did there (it got things off and running). Sticking his neck out is fairly typical for Legate if I recall correctly.

Edit: Crossed with Green, Leg, Ka, Gal

[Kath]

Seriously!!! That's about the most unhelpful thing ever!!! I mean, I understand you are substituting Nilp, but I'm with Kant on this one. You shouldn't make the example of doing something that might corrupt others to do the same!
I am assuming here that you mean Kath not Kant - but I'm still gonna take it and bask in the glory of being referred to as an eminent philosopher. :D

As in keeping the person you suspect as a cobbler alive on purpose? Certainly, if there is a person you suspect to be a wolf, because the cobbler doesn't count as a baddie in the tally. But surely, in terms of voting outcomes, a dead cobbler is better than a living cobbler when it comes to votes? After all, the QT just votes once collectively, which means the cobbler may or may not affect the choice of recipient. But a living cobbler always gets a vote. And gets to say a lot of things that mess with the village's head besides.
I think my train of thought was following the previous one about baddie numbers overwhelming goodie numbers in the QT if they ended up there early on. So say a wolf is lynched Day 1 and an innocent killed Night 2, the QT has even baddies and goodies - the baddies control the vote. The cobbler is lynched Day 2 and an innocent killed Night 3. The QT still has even baddies and goodies and all the Cobbler has to do is vote with the now known wolf for again the baddies to control the vote. But all of that only mattered in the case of a wolf ending up in the QT early on, which was the original thought I'd started at. Also, the villagers would know the roles of those in the QT, and so could be rightfully suspicious of any vote coming from the QT anyway. So I'm afraid it was all rather a thinking out loud exercise. In terms of voting outcomes, as you say, a dead Cobbler is better.

Yes, that's what I'm getting at. The QT vote can't be treated as a "known dead innocent" (possibly misguided, but still innocent). Because if it's the dead wolves dominating the vote, they know who to vote for. Which actually gives us more information than if the QT is innocently dominated. However, who knows what sort of chaos would be going on in the QT discussions.
Yeah, I think this sums up the ramble above.

[Rikae]

Man, can I ship ya folks? (Sorry. Lommy taught me that kind of vocabulary.)


I was wondering if I should worry about the way Boro was buttering Mac up ...

[Loslote]

Before leaving I had spent a lot of time with this on my mind. Now, now, it's not a "list" per se, more my general perceptions of behavior and style. Please feel free to correct if any of this is wrong. :p

...

Boromir88 (Chime in with whatever floats your boats)

I have a minute right now, so I'm gonna go ahead and talk through my impressions on Boro so far. Boro is a bold player, especially as a wolf, in my experience. I'm getting a strong "brewing potential" vibe from Boro so far today - a sense of "big, bold plays may be coming" - which could very easily go innocent or wolf, given his playing style. I keep feeling like there's no reason for me to make a judgement call either way until he starts making his moves. I don't necessarily suspect him right now, and I would not vote for him toDay, but I am definitely going to keep an eye on him.

xed with Kath and Rikae

[Macalaure]

Ok, they're not lists. See them as tabs...groups of tabs. Any attempt of mental lists scrambled me up so to try organizing I did groups, not lists.If it looks like a duck and quacks like a duck... you know :p

What you must ask though is not "would a wolf stick their head out that early?" but would a Legate-wolf do it? With a pack of 5 there's higher incentive to start out bolder. Because it means you have 4 companions who can throw their weight around and steer it in favor or opposed to Legate depending on how the winds go. Where the rest of us rely only on ourselves.I highly doubt the pack would come out in force and steer the wheel only to keep one packmember from fenrisizing themselves. Chances are that one of them will bite the dust at some point, and then people will look at their old posts. Such Day1 behavior can sink the wolfship on a later day.

The difference between number of innocents and number of wolves determines how many days we will play. Number of days vs. number of wolves to be lynched. The ratio is more important than the actual pack size.

I've been going back and forth on who I think looks most wolf-like of those three, too.This is what I mean. I can feel a race between Pitch, G55, and Legate coming up, while the wolves are snickering in the background.

I'm not even saying that there isn't a wolf among them - it's possible - but I don't like the way this is gaining momentum.

I'd like to hear from some of the people who think Macalaure is dodgyTranslation: "I'm trying to frame an innocent but I don't want to get my own hands dirty, can someone help me out?" :p

He does love playing as a wolf, but I think he also enjoys looking sinister as an innocent.Actually, I usually get super nervous as a wolf and then it shows and then I die. The second part is true though. :D

[Rikae]

And I jokingly called you out on deliberately summarizing incorrectly. :smokin: This only serves to sow confusion and derail the village, or give people (you most of all) an excuse to vote based on, frankly, false grounds if the vote is based off this post. My point still stands.


Are you serious or are you joking, then? So far you've started a lot of serious debate and accusations flowing with jokes.

If you're seriously suggesting my summary was meant to derail the village, well the bit about you was meant to see whether you responded with jumpy self-defense and/or whether anyone followed by suspecting you in an opportunistic way, both of which would give me/the village more to go on.

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

I don’t have too much to go on, just single posts or comments that strike me as suspicious. If I had to vote now I would probably go for Eonwe or Kitanna.

Eonwes back and forth dialog regarding Legate in post 73 strikes me as a noncommittal day 1 ploy.

Kitanna jumping at Lhunas very first post also seem to opportunistic. Definitely seems overly keen to build a case, even if there is absolutely nothing to go on.

Most people seems somewhat helpful, and unfortunately that makes me see them in a bit of rose tinted light.

[A Little Green]

I'd like to hear from some of the people who think Macalaure is dodgy
Translation: "I'm trying to frame an innocent but I don't want to get my own hands dirty, can someone help me out?"This actually isn’t how I read that at all. If anything, Huinesoron seems almost worried about Mac and defends him on more than one occasion. Still within the limits of ordo who doesn’t get why someone is being suspected, but worth keeping an eye on.

I also found Huin’s back and forth with Lommy quite curious, from both of them I should say. Huin brings up Lommy’s flip-flopping, she counters with explaining how she always does this and it’s just her thought process (this is true), he makes a shrewd point on how hiding behind one’s “trademark” habits is a safe place for a wolf to go, then she basically says this is fair as it’s what she does when she’s a wolf. Huin then says Lommy seems to have eased off a bit, and later speculates if it’s a coincidence that she seemed to appear just to defend herself and then disappear again when he seemed satisfied with her explanation. I’m not sure what to make of any of this, but I think it merits more attention than it got.

The main benefit of this would be that we could then see who would be "lynched" under such circumstances - and then that could be helpful in tracing the Wolves. Because in "real" voting, WWs are calculating to save their mates and so on. In "dry run", it isn't so clear, and then they may be a bit at loss as to what to do. Would they cast their "pseudo-vote" to "save" their packmate even if it is only a dry run? But what if then the real vote happens and the situation goes the same way and they have to change their vote? They need to provide an explanation. It may draw eyes. Etc etc. THAT was the chief merit behind the theory that was discussed so lengthily here.I’m still not big on the idea, but this is the most sensible defence of it that I’ve seen so far and makes me feel better about Legate – this sort of reasoning doesn’t strike me as something that would necessarily occur to a wolf.

I want to read back a few pages and see what’s actually going on. There’s been a lot of talk and focus on Pitch, Gal55, and Legate, and that’s fair enough as that whole dynamic is possibly the most substantial thing to have happened so far, but I’m as interested (if not more) in other people’s reactions to those three as in the trio themselves.

[Brinniel]

This is what I mean. I can feel a race between Pitch, G55, and Legate coming up, while the wolves are snickering in the background.

I'm not even saying that there isn't a wolf among them - it's possible - but I don't like the way this is gaining momentum.
I agree with this. I'm still a bit wary of G55 and Pitchwife (less so of the former), however I don't want to get caught in a trap. I think I will stay clear of this potential mess for toDay and focus elsewhere.

[Galadriel55]

A Pitch vs Mac fight seems to be brewing ...

*cheers* Fight! Fight! Fight! Fight!

But seriously though, neither Pitch nor Mac have pinged my wolf radars as much as everyone has been shouting. I get the feeling that both camps are largely based on fabricated suspicion.


Ok, and now I'm caught up to my previous posts. There has been so much talk I feel that my eyes are glazing over and I forget who said what already.





Some Brief Thoughts:

Kath seems a bit muddled, but more the innocent-trying-to-untangle-what-actually-happened muddled.

Both Hui and Legate came back with a bit of an attitude of "how dare you not hunt wolves!", which sounds a bit pretentious and pseudo-helpful.
Legate - pinged the radar initially (but more in a cobbler than a wolf way), then seemed quite innocent after an explanation, then started looking odd again. I am missing his wishy washiness. He's too direct, if that's possible. And then I refreshed, and he's wishy washy as usual. You're being wishy washy even in your style of wishy washiness! :p
Hui seems reasonable on the whole, aside from the "you're wasting the Day! Quick, catch some wolves!" thing.

Boro is still weird as hell but doesn't seem to be so in a bad way.

Pitch seems to be the new bandwagon for suspicion. And I just don't see where it's coming from. However, I still am not sure what he was going on about with spreading the votes across the Day.
Similarly, Mac suspicion seems to have appeared out of thin air. I don't get it.

Zil is actually NOT giving me the Day 1 Lynch voice in my head. And I wonder why. (Which is I guess how the voice works: Zil just can't win with it ;)).

Lommy seems very relaxed. Too relaxed? Or just I-have-nothing-to-hide relaxed?

Meanwhile, Kitanna seems kind of tense.

I am waiting for a response from Rikae. Being curt is one thing, being deliberately wrong is another. And she just - sidesteps - the questioning from myself and Mac, like that post never happened.

Brinniel seems to post without leaving any impression. I have no memory of what she posted, and will need to go over it. She seems to not want to stick out an opinion too far - but again, I will have to read her posts over again. Doesn't give good vibes.

The Ka is another person that gives me bad vibes. She seems fake-nice. She posts like she's afraid to step on people's toes. She sounds afraid to come near the spotlight. I don't like it.

I am not sure what to make of Lhuna. On the whole, very unhelpful, especially with the vote, but I can see her acting this way as an innocent too. Also not sure what to make of the "buiseness only" people: Greenie and Eonwe. To an extent Kitanna also falls here, but she gives me a more tense vibe.

The others have either posted very little or are super under the radar.
Urwen: what do Maeglin's Elf-eyes see? Or he is secretly the cobbler? :p
Sally, those links will have to wait till toNight. No time for play when there are so many posts. Aaaaagh!

If I were to vote right now, it would be +- Rikae, for behaviour that stands out the most as wolfish. Obviously, this may change when I see your response, or if a huge flag comes up elsewhere.


Edit: needless to say, xed since my last.

[Rikae]

I'm still a bit wary of G55 and Pitchwife (less so of the former), however I don't want to get caught in a trap.

Interesting.

[Loslote]

I am waiting for a response from Rikae. Being curt is one thing, being deliberately wrong is another. And she just - sidesteps - the questioning from myself and Mac, like that post never happened.

Could you elaborate on what you're referring to here? So far, I've felt like Rikae has been straightforward and clear, and I haven't gotten a bad vibe from her at all. Also, this:

Meanwhile, Kitanna seems kind of tense.

Strikes me as a non-committal way of leaving yourself open to joining a possible bandwagon later on.

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

I am not sure what to make of Lhuna. On the whole, very unhelpful, especially with the vote, but I can see her acting this way as an innocent too. Also not sure what to make of the "buiseness only" people: Greenie and Eonwe. To an extent Kitanna also falls here, but she gives me a more tense vibe.

The others have either posted very little or are super under the radar.
Urwen: what do Maeglin's Elf-eyes see? Or he is secretly the cobbler? :p


Maybe somebody planted a false memory, but wasn’t Lhuna always a bit suicidal on day 1 back in the day ? I wouldn’t read too much into it.

Maeglin is a traitor, so why would one bring him into the fray. To me that is a cobbler hint, I didn’t bring it up earlier because I wanted us to focus on the sick.

[THE Ka]

... unless that's the point? I dunno; I'd like to hear from some of the people who think Macalaure is dodgy, see how this post affects their thinking.

Thinking it’s dodgy might be a case of how it’s presented, but I get the impression that is just how Mac is processing or trying to make something to analyze and to do a spot check with the rest of us that they’re working on a theory. Wolves do this, sure, but a lot of villagers do this especially on Day 1 as the deadline is nearing. They appear to be throwing a dart at everything, which granted is a method I suppose if you can make it work for you. Don’t see enough solid evidence to make Mac an absolute bandwagon though.

Would enjoy a little more substance from a few others than Mac, so they’re not drowned out, but I know it’s mostly likely due to that there’s over twenty of us in here trying to talk over one another.

Some are inevitably going to be working on something, refresh the page to post, and see that they’re another page behind. With this in mind you have to sort of isolate posts by individual to who is posting around the same time as them. It makes it easier to see who is contributing, who are they speaking to, how are they speaking to their targets, and who is sort of lurking about them trying to look busy.

I know we keep saying we don’t enjoy lists… but this massive a game I’m having to keep a written log. :rolleyes:

So far, I really have no clue on Rune or Lhuna, but I know this is due to their time restraints and I can’t fault them on that alone. I could give them a pass the first Day, but I’d be looking for more substance the second given the material they’d have to look at along with us.

Maybe somebody planted a false memory, but wasn’t Lhuna always a bit suicidal on day 1 back in the day ? I wouldn’t read too much into it.

I also remember Lhuna having to step out early in game and to be completely honest, I can't in all consciousness go after someone on that either, because I've done that not once, but twice myself because of outside world responsibilities. One of the reasons I haven't played WW in almost ten years, unfortunately.

Rikae is Rikae, I’m not sensing anything out of their normal play style. I am however, not trying to let nostalgia cloud memory though...

I would like to see a little more explanation from Eonwe on their ideas since we’ve gotten past the fake-vote originator debacle. Have an interest in their deductions.

That was as fishy first post as they go. "Everyone is a Wolf, hint hint not me."

Lalaith is kind of a dead end due to the lack of… anything. However, I’d like to know if they’ve read or are simply waiting to do a drive-by post and hope no one is keeping tabs.

Loslote has me curious due to the repeated fanning of compliments to Huiensoron's thinking, but I'm not seeing much contribution outside of agreeing when it comes to Hui's theories.

Strikes me as a non-committal way of leaving yourself open to joining a possible bandwagon later on.

Granted I need to read over Kit's posts more, but... These are some strong pot calling the kettle black vibes.

[Boromir88]

I also disagree with Gal about lists being vague and useless. I personally find them quite helpful; without them it’s easy to stick to talking about the loudest, most controversial villagers and topics and let others fly under the radar completely. This tends to serve wolves better than innocents since odds are at least some of them are among the quiet, less attention-seeking crowd.~Greenie

So to stay away from any more lists. Let me try a theoretical "how Day 1s go (in my mind)" approach.

In general, is it agreed that the "under the radar" group is larger than the "loud/active" group? Is it also agreed that Day 1 voting feels like such a shot in the dark?

In the larger group of "under the radars" there are most assuredly wolves. Larger group, easier to stay on the outskirts. A Day 1 vote for a player in this group is low risk, but low reward. Because a lot of the "under the radar" Day 1 behavior is also a sign of ordo villagers who don't have much to say, due to a lack of Day 1 information. And they are forced to wait for information to go on.

Then there's a smaller group of "loud/active" players, and the "under the radars" need this group to stir conversation/discussion. A day 1 "shot in the dark" vote for someone in the smaller group is higher risk, but also higher reward. It's a smaller group so better percentage the shot hits a wolf. Higher risk though because that shot could also inadvertently hit a gifted.

Sometimes I'm in favor of the higher risk, sometimes not. In general I try to follow a "let the active players duke it out and lynch each other" and leave the under the radars to the gifteds, to whittle down and figure out. Because as the days go on, even the "under the radars" have to step out and leave a record.

On a separate note. In a matter of personal taste, the cobbler is my favorite role to play. I guess there's that bit of cause mischief in me that I really enjoy. I don't think anyone proposed lynching a suspected-cobbler over a suspected-wolf, but agree with the sentiment that it's helpful to point out cobblerish behavior. At the end of the day the cobbler doesn't know any of the wolves, so in their own nefarious scheming they could in fact be more harmful to outing wolves than actually helping them. In one way or another the cobbler is the most beneficial when sacrificing for the pack (counts as an innocent lynched). So, it's really not beneficial to lynch a suspected-cobbler.

I read the Lommy's and other posts of "well that's a cobblerish suggestion" as not to say "let's lynch the Legate-looking cobbler" but "Let's take this suggest plan with a grain of salt/diversionary tactic."

Edit: Much cross-posting

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

In the whole Legate, G55, and Pitch discussion I'd wager there's a wolf hidden, setting up two innocents to take the bait. Yet each time I read back, I switch who I think is most likely the wolf.
I thought Legate might be the innocent party until post #88
Something about the whole post feels, I don't know, contrived? I can't place my finger on it. Like G55 it feels like he's distancing himself from the fake DL, fake vote discussion.
I'm finding it hard to explain why this sets me off, but I'm going to try in the most coherent way.
Legate drew a lot of attention, but I didn't really feel many were overly suspicious of him. There's been some talk, but nothing to indicate everyone is convinced and ready to bandwagon. I'd say more people raised eyebrows toward G55 and Pitch, myself included, because of how G55 distanced herself from her idea and how Pitch threw it all into Legate's lap. In all that, Legate did look like a misguided, attempting to be helpful innocent. But maybe that's how he wants to be viewed? He's been helpful, at least, in stirring up conversation. And yet, his list post of his thoughts in #88 just rings of false platitudes and him trying to put himself under the radar again. He came, he made a lot of noise, and now just there with a list.

Okay, this was pretty out of the blue. So in short, now Kitanna started to suspect me for making a list?

Plus again posting with what I call "helpful questions for the reader" - I don't like that, because that is exactly the typical Wolf-tactic for baiting the reader into it. As in:
Wolf: "XY did something. I wonder if they are guilty?" Reader: "Hmm, maybe there's something to it. I vote for XY." Wolf: "Oh! I see! There is something fishy about XY! Good that it was not me who came up with that."

Otherwise... I have good feelings about Rune, especially his post #117 seems genuinely innocentish to me.

I am assuming here that you mean Kath not Kant - but I'm still gonna take it and bask in the glory of being referred to as an eminent philosopher. :D

Sorry, I meant Kant :D I was not aware of you saying anything about it by the time I posted it. But, to be sure, feel free to claim a new nickname! Henceforth, you shall be known as...

I was wondering if I should worry about the way Boro was buttering Mac up ...

Right?

This is what I mean. I can feel a race between Pitch, G55, and Legate coming up, while the wolves are snickering in the background.

I'm not even saying that there isn't a wolf among them - it's possible - but I don't like the way this is gaining momentum.

Me neither - and not only because I am one of them, but considering this.
Day 1 starts. As expected of Day 1, there isn't much to talk about, people are joking about washing hands etc.
Then, among a few actual posts with content, G55 proposes (the way I see it now) an alternative to "no vote on Day 1" in the form of a "fake vote".
I understand it as a "dry run vote" and propose an elaborate scheme which makes half the people not understand what I meant.
Pitchwife questions it.

Cut to: "one of these three is a Wolf". For what? For suggesting a "bonus vote round"? For baiting me into talking about "bonus vote round" so that they could accuse me of coming up with it? Is talking about this "bonus vote round" something inherently evil, so WWs would assume that they could paint the person who talked about it as suspicious? This has nothing to do with whether the people involved may be innocent or guilty otherwise, but this debate should have zero impact on it?!?

What I mean is to ask: where is there anything "evil" in this debate in the first place? The whole idea seems horribly contrived. It is more like "look, three people started arguing here, let's pick a lynchee from among them". Only normally, when people argue, they argue about whether XY is suspicious or not, or perhaps whether we should lynch nobody on Day 1. Now in those debates, you could at least argue that one side is arguing for something with a malicious intent. But we argued (or anyway, "argued", on top of everything) about something that, I think, is "outside morality and ethics".

I ask everyone who suspects anyone on the grounds of this to reexamine (and ideally, explain) their reasoning.

EDIT: xed with million again

[Thinlómien]

I went away for a few hours to do something else and - oh whatever, it's actually nice to see the village is active! I'm not gonna address individual posts right now but instead I'm gonna make a list:


Leaning innocent

Legate - his stirring the pot seems more innocent to me than not, especially in the light of his most recent post (#125), which has a very genuine vibe to me. In my experience, legatewolf is more cautious than ordoofamonlanc, which makes me not super worried about his behaviour toDay.

Kath and THE Ka - seem like their normal reasonable selves and give me a good vibe so far.

Lhuna - would a wolf self-vote on Day1? The eternal question... In reality, it's probably much safer than starting a bandwagon against anyone else if you're the one who has to vote first for timezone reasons, but I think a wolf might be nervous enough to think otherwise? The tone of her vote post pretty much screams ordo (or possibly cobbler) to me, so I don't think I'm gonna jump on the bandwagon she's trying to create. (Although it's tempting just because it's funny and it would be karma. :p)


Who knows (I mean who knows about anyone, but these are the extra who knows people!)

Galadriel55 - several things she's said have made me raise my eyebrows a little - especially how she treated the whole no-vote discussion from the start, but I think she might rather be an ordo sticking her neck out à la Legate or else the cobbler, and in either case probably not who I want to concentrate any more toDay than we already have.

Mac and Rikae - both of them seem like their usual innocent selves, but something's going on in there. I wouldn't be very surprised if one of them turned out to be a wolf, but the question is which one? Originally Rikae seemed very innocent to me and Mac like a shadowy troublemaker, but towards the end of the Day the roles have somewhat switched around...

Greenie and Inzil - both seem kinda creepily nicely cool and collected and reasonable and I don't really suspect them but I know better than to trust them without more material. They're always like this regardless of the role.

Lalaith and Urwen - ok I might have grouped them together for funsies, but it's true neither of them has given me enough material to work on, so nothing to say yet.

Brinniel and Eönwë - here's the thing. They both seem(ed) to consider me (someone I know is innocent) and THE Ka (someone who seems innocent to me) innocent and besides I more or less agree with most of what they've both said, so that seems a little too good to be true to me. Then again, with the same logic I might as well suspect myself. :rolleyes: And if this wasn't confusing enough, then Eönwë already pointing out Brinniel thinks uncannily similarly to him (about me & Ka) brought this to a whole new level for me. Anyway, if I had to make a judgement - Eönwë's overall tone seemed pretty genuine, while Brinniel seems more sinister.

Sally and Shasta - they seem to have posted but somehow they both completely flew under my radar??


Shady

Huinesoron - I'm wondering how much benefit of doubt I should give them because they haven't played 'downs ww *so* much (and I think we played together once maybe?) but something about their reasoning feels very alien to me. I know I'm innocent and I personally think I also act quite innocent so their suspicion of me seems very fabricated to me. :p

Lottie, Kitanna and Rune - all of them rub me the wrong way but I would need to reread their posts to put a finger on it.

Pitchwife - seems somewhat too defensive and grasping at straws. Then again, I find it funny how he stands out to so many people as one of the main players of toDay (alongside Legate and Galadriel55) when I personally feel like he's been flying under the radar? Meaning, I somewhat smell an "easy target" the wolves would be happy about...

Boro - he's really weird in this game. Yeah yeah, maybe he's just happy to play again. Or maybe his playing style changed over the years when we were not playing. But I'm mostly worried about the fact that he's not half as confrontational as usual, but instead posting long introspective rambles where he conveniently doesn't have to go toe-to-toe with anyone.


edit: xed with #136 and onwards

[Boromir88]

I was wondering if I should worry about the way Boro was buttering Mac up ...

Do people like Mac without butter? Wait..maybe I'm confusing Mac for MaC (Macaroni and Cheese). Anyways, continue.

[Loslote]

Granted I need to read over Kit's posts more, but... These are some strong pot calling the kettle black vibes.

Just to clarify, am I the pot or is G55?

Cut to: "one of these three is a Wolf". For what? For suggesting a "bonus vote round"? For baiting me into talking about "bonus vote round" so that they could accuse me of coming up with it? Is talking about this "bonus vote round" something inherently evil, so WWs would assume that they could paint the person who talked about it as suspicious? This has nothing to do with whether the people involved may be innocent or guilty otherwise, but this debate should have zero impact on it?!?

I absolutely do not suspect anyone on the basis of whether or not they supported the bonus vote round plan. I do think there is merit to Huin's point that Pitch soft defended G55, then when that was pointed out, soft attacked G55. That, coupled with the fact that I do suspect G55 based on other posts, leads me to think that they legitimately might be a wolf pair.

[Galadriel55]

Actually, I usually get super nervous as a wolf and then it shows and then I die. The second part is true though. :D

Translation: "See how not nervous and sinister I look? Clearly I am an innocent!" :p

Are you serious or are you joking, then? So far you've started a lot of serious debate and accusations flowing with jokes.

If you're seriously suggesting my summary was meant to derail the village, well the bit about you was meant to see whether you responded with jumpy self-defense and/or whether anyone followed by suspecting you in an opportunistic way, both of which would give me/the village more to go on.

It was said in a joking tone, but I was dead serious about you being inaccurate and exaggerating. The most inaccurate thing about Mac you've addressed as an "oops, don't know how that got there" which sounds innocent but is still EXTREMELY unhelpful, since it sticks incorrectly in people's memories. When did Zil cast accusation on Legate as being a wolf? Find me that post, please, because I don't see one. What you said about Lommy - seriously?

I get that it's been part joke, but it's also so dangerous to half-seriously summarize things with such blatant exaggeration and inaccuracy, because again this is how it sticks in people's minds. Moreover, it's how people (especially yourself) can easily justify votes and suspicion later on - based on incorrect summaries. I can argue about the statements involving me as well, except that would be biased and there is sufficient to be said without it; the exception is the first statement, cause I can't recall where I "concluded" we need to lynch a wolf (I recall Lommy's post that you refer to but not mine).

So yes. A subtle diversion / tweaking of how people remember the events is not at all beyond your posts' potential achievements. Throw some unsupported shade on people, then dismiss half of it as a joke and half of it as an oopsy daisy, and the post gets forgiven but the shade remains. Actually, it was so bombastically inaccurate I am surprised only Mac called you out on it except for me.

(for ease of discussion for everyone else, we are both talking about #69 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=723235&postcount=69).

I agree with this. I'm still a bit wary of G55 and Pitchwife (less so of the former), however I don't want to get caught in a trap. I think I will stay clear of this potential mess for toDay and focus elsewhere.

Do you have better candidates? It's admirable to make sure you scrutinize everyone, not just the most vocal people. But not voting for someone you genuinely suspect because you think it might be a trap or get messy? This seems to be dancing too easily on the edge of voting whomever works out best for yourself. Brin, can I please request a summary of who you actually suspect?

A Brin-read to come later if I have time. It's gotta be done. You were under my radar for way too long toDay, and I can't see what your game is because I barely remember what your previous opinions were, except that they didn't stick out too far to be controversial.

[Rikae]

I am waiting for a response from Rikae. Being curt is one thing, being deliberately wrong is another. And she just - sidesteps - the questioning from myself and Mac, like that post never happened.


You crossposted with a response, although I'm not sure what you want from me or what I'm supposed to have been deliberately wrong about.

As for sidestepping, I'm here to catch wolves, not get bogged down justifying the steps I took to do so.

Anyway, right now my fake vote would go to:

++Brinniel

For immediately repeating 2 of 3 names from my list as suspicions, and then backtracking explicitly to avoid getting caught in a trap right after I explained to G55 that my post was intended as a wolf trap. That was ostensibly a reply to Mac saying the group was mostly innocent, but the coincidence is just too much for me to ignore.

I know, these are the kinds of things a wolf would definitely make sure not to do, right? Right. So much so, it could be used as cover. And an innocent doing them coincidentally? That feels like a bigger stretch to me.

[Loslote]

It was said in a joking tone, but I was dead serious about you being inaccurate and exaggerating. The most inaccurate thing about Mac you've addressed as an "oops, don't know how that got there" which sounds innocent but is still EXTREMELY unhelpful, since it sticks incorrectly in people's memories. When did Zil cast accusation on Legate as being a wolf? Find me that post, please, because I don't see one. What you said about Lommy - seriously?

I get that it's been part joke, but it's also so dangerous to half-seriously summarize things with such blatant exaggeration and inaccuracy, because again this is how it sticks in people's minds. Moreover, it's how people (especially yourself) can easily justify votes and suspicion later on - based on incorrect summaries. I can argue about the statements involving me as well, except that would be biased and there is sufficient to be said without it; the exception is the first statement, cause I can't recall where I "concluded" we need to lynch a wolf (I recall Lommy's post that you refer to but not mine).

So yes. A subtle diversion / tweaking of how people remember the events is not at all beyond your posts' potential achievements. Throw some unsupported shade on people, then dismiss half of it as a joke and half of it as an oopsy daisy, and the post gets forgiven but the shade remains. Actually, it was so bombastically inaccurate I am surprised only Mac called you out on it except for me.

(for ease of discussion for everyone else, we are both talking about #69 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=723235&postcount=69).

Okay, so, let's actually look at this post, then, shall we?

Oh ... hello! I'm sorry, I've just been busy making these masks. They have pockets! :smokin:

Well, it's good to see that Lommy and G55 have come to the conclusion that we need to try lynch a wolf, er, quarantine an infected. And G55 and Legate have agreed we should cast fake votes.

And G55 and Lommy have decided that Legate is a cobbler, and Inzil and Mac have suggested he's infected? :eek:

Seriously, it's interesting how the fake votes discussion evolved, seemingly from a couple of throwaway comments to a serious suggestion. Normally it would be totally pointless, but there is some sense in it as a way to prevent people from lurking and waiting to bandwagon on the QT vote. However, I don't think it's practical, and probably won't be necessary, as "lurk and wait for the QT vote" would become suspicious behavior very quickly anyway.

When it comes to single top suspects vs lists, both have their pros and cons and leave material to analyze later on. Me, I like lists. Here's one, just to get the ball rolling:

Pitchwife
G55
Macalaure

This was still very early on Day 1, and frankly, I am not sure what in this post you think is so inaccurate. Is it a bit tongue in cheek? Yeah, maybe. But I'm pretty sure everything Rikae summarized actually was part of the early banter and tentative strategy talk. If you were a wolf, I could see you not wanting to focus on the other members of the G55-Legate-Pitch tangle, and wanting to try to start up a distracting bandwagon. I honestly don't really see the motivation for an ordo to devote this much energy towards a suspicion that isn't really built on much of anything. If we were doing the bonus vote, I would definitely be voting for G55 at this point.

[Thinlómien]

I find it incredibly funny that for all the scrutiny and ridicule Legate got for championing the mock vote idea a lot of the people are actually doing it?? Oh how the tables turn...

But yeah why the hackle not? I said it wouldn't work and maybe everyone won't do it but for what it's worth, at the moment my vote would go to

+-Boro

for reasons specified in my list post (tl;dr he's shying away from confrontations whích seems out of character and also generally doesn' have the same vibe as usual).


edit: xed with Lottie (not that anyone's really keeping track, are they?)

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Boro - he's really weird in this game. Yeah yeah, maybe he's just happy to play again. Or maybe his playing style changed over the years when we were not playing.
I have been just thinking the same thing! And exactly wondering whether it was him or my memory of him.

I absolutely do not suspect anyone on the basis of whether or not they supported the bonus vote round plan. I do think there is merit to Huin's point that Pitch soft defended G55, then when that was pointed out, soft attacked G55. That, coupled with the fact that I do suspect G55 based on other posts, leads me to think that they legitimately might be a wolf pair.

Fair enough.

Anyways... I may do a bit of a re-check and perhaps post an actual list of my impressions on everyone - or at least work on one to have it before DL. Since the "fake DL" would be soon, I could reiterate what I said and say that right now, I'd vote for

++Kitanna

But I want to do a full re-check before the actual DL, hope I will have time for it.

EDIT: xe-d since the Lottie post I quoted

[Loslote]

To make it official, my mock vote:

++ Galadriel55

[Eönwë]

Ok, things are looking pretty busy for me today. Let's do a list to gather my thoughts.

Thinlómien - Seems good so far.

Legate of Amon Lanc - I don't like the voting plan, but since then he's seemed pretty reasonable. Of course, he's just as good at seeming (and actually being) reasonable when he's an innocent or wolf. I'm not sure whether I might've missed it, but I can't see whether he's decided to back down from the idea, held to it, or decided to remain silent.

Huinesoron - Never played with before, seems reasonable so far.

Loslote - Can't get a read yet.

Pitchwife - Was originally very suspicious of how he jumped on Legate. Now, looking back, I can see why he might have wanted to argue against both G55 and Legate's suggestions. However, in the now-infamous post, he only really reiterates and slightly expands upon what Lommy, Brinn, and Zil were saying, which might make his post the pseudo-useful post he was accusing Legate of. More recently (#100), he's attacked Mac for seemingly being hyporcitical/jumping at any excuse to attack. Unfairly attacked and therefore suspicious innocent or frantic wolf? Not sure.

Kath - seems quiet but ok so far.

Galadriel55 - I don't actually think she's very suspicious overall. However, how others have acted towards her makes it look like maybe people were trying to get her out of suspicion's way (by pinning the fake-voting on Legate, etc.), so that does make her suspicious and may implicate her in future if they're evil.

Lhunardawen - Really not enough to go on yet.

Inziladun - I'm also firmly in the 'usually has a strong urge to lynch Zil on Day 1' group. I'm not feeling it as much as usual this time, which has me concerned. But I don't think I'd vote for him toDay.

Kitanna - Not enough to get a good read yet.

A Little Green - Not enough to get a good read yet.

Boromir88 - Too much talking about things that don't seem that helpful for me to feel comfortable. But then this is normal Boro, at least as I remember his play-style.

Urwen - Nothing substantive yet.

Lalaith- Not enough to get a good read yet.

Brinniel - I really can't tell how I feel about her at this point, which is concerning.

Macalaure- Not sure whether I'm actually suspicious of him or just have heard that he's suspicious so many times that I've started to believe it.

Rikae- Not sure why she let Lommy off the hook in her initial suspicion list.

Rune Son of Bjarne - Interesting to hear him admit that he usually suspects me without much cause; that might partially explain why I usually suspect him, and this game is no different. Probably not enough to vote for him though. At least do far.

THE Ka - Seems good so far.

Satansaloser2005- Not enough to get a good read yet.

Shastanis Althreduin- Not enough to get a good read yet.


One interesting (maybe 'out-there') idea: What if G55 and Legate are both wolves? In this scenario, G55 made a throwaway comment and Legate saw the violent backlash and rushed in to make it seem more palatable, only to have the idea pinned to him instead.


Note: I can see that page 4 is filling up rapidly, but haven't read it yet.


edit: fixed formatting, finished one sentence.

[Huinesoron]

Am now stuck on my phone, so this is going to be a bit fractured.

Speaking of hypothetical ideas, this scenario kinda came into my mind last night. So, it's the EndGame, and alive are Wolf, Hunter (hunting the Wolf), and Ordo. Ordo dies. Wolf devours Hunter, but Hunter takes down the wolf. Does either side win?

Is it just me, or is hypothetically contemplating possible Wolf victories not entirely the action of an innocent villager?

I'm not even saying that there*isn't*a wolf among them - it's possible - but I don't like the way this is gaining momentum.

We're, what, three and a bit hours from deadline? There's been a few other suspicions around, but I haven't seen anyone (Besides maybe you, but see below) strike more than one or two people as dodgy other than on general feel. The GLP has kind of drowned the rest out; I think the best evidence we have on everyone else might actually be their reactions to it all? I'll try and have a look later.

Translation: "I'm trying to frame an innocent but I don't want to get my own hands dirty, can someone help me out?"*

To be honest I still lean against you being a wolf. I'm willing to be persuaded by the evidence - but I was mostly hoping for a wolf to stick their neck out too far in manufacturing said evidence.

It does look like I over-read the amount of discussion there was(n't) of you, so I think that's probably a blind alley.

Huin*then says*Lommy*seems to have eased off a bit, and later speculates if it’s a coincidence that she seemed to appear just to defend herself and then disappear again when he seemed satisfied with her explanation. I’m not sure what to make of any of this, but I think it merits more attention than it got.

By 'eased off', I mean that her explanations struck me as less suspicious in presentation than her previous behaviour. But as she says - sometimes she leans into the stereotypes, so presumably she can lean out of them at need?

I’m as interested (if not more) in other people’s reactions to those three as in the trio themselves.

This. (I think already said this in this same post, actually.)

Okay, I think I've caught up with the ever-moving present. I feel like the Day has split into three phases: phase 1 being the actual discussion over the fake votes idea, phase two being reactions to and suspicions over the parts people played in it, and now phase 3 is suspicion over those reactions. I want to reread phase 2, because I think phase 4 (analysing the current suspicions) is likely to be too deep down the rabbit hole: we'll all be looking at so many levels of info that you could form a plausible suspicion of everyone!

hS, as of post 149

[Pitchwife]

Translation: "I'm trying to frame an innocent but I don't want to get my own hands dirty, can someone help me out?"
This in reply to Hui who was actually wondering where the Mac-suspicion came from (as Greenie has explained).


Actually, I usually get super nervous as a wolf and then it shows
Hmmm...

[Galadriel55]

Could you elaborate on what you're referring to here? So far, I've felt like Rikae has been straightforward and clear, and I haven't gotten a bad vibe from her at all. Also, this:

#69.

Seriously? No one else except Mac has noticed anything wrong with that post? And Mac only noticed it because he was the one falsely accused. Notice how no one else picked up on the incorrect information. Don't you find it scary manipulative to have thoughts put into your head like that? Village, what is wrong with you for blindly eating up what you're fed, regardless of Rikae's actual role or intention?

Maeglin is a traitor, so why would one bring him into the fray. To me that is a cobbler hint, I didn’t bring it up earlier because I wanted us to focus on the sick.

Because Maeglin is Urwen's latest character obsession. She will find a way to bring him into any discussion. See like all of her posts in the last year. :smokin:

Me neither - and not only because I am one of them, but considering this.
Day 1 starts. As expected of Day 1, there isn't much to talk about, people are joking about washing hands etc.
Then, among a few actual posts with content, G55 proposes (the way I see it now) an alternative to "no vote on Day 1" in the form of a "fake vote".
I understand it as a "dry run vote" and propose an elaborate scheme which makes half the people not understand what I meant.
Pitchwife questions it.

Cut to: "one of these three is a Wolf". For what? For suggesting a "bonus vote round"? For baiting me into talking about "bonus vote round" so that they could accuse me of coming up with it? Is talking about this "bonus vote round" something inherently evil, so WWs would assume that they could paint the person who talked about it as suspicious? This has nothing to do with whether the people involved may be innocent or guilty otherwise, but this debate should have zero impact on it?!?

What I mean is to ask: where is there anything "evil" in this debate in the first place? The whole idea seems horribly contrived. It is more like "look, three people started arguing here, let's pick a lynchee from among them". Only normally, when people argue, they argue about whether XY is suspicious or not, or perhaps whether we should lynch nobody on Day 1. Now in those debates, you could at least argue that one side is arguing for something with a malicious intent. But we argued (or anyway, "argued", on top of everything) about something that, I think, is "outside morality and ethics".

I ask everyone who suspects anyone on the grounds of this to reexamine (and ideally, explain) their reasoning.

That is actually very reasonable and unpanicked defense. However, it misses the main point of all the accusations, which are not about the content of the Votes Debate but the manner in which players have interacted in it. Still, points to Legate for level-headedness regardless of his role.

Edit: xed since my last

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

#

Because Maeglin is Urwen's latest character obsession. She will find a way to bring him into any discussion. See like all of her posts in the last year. :smokin:


How very convenient!
Okay, fair enough I haven't been around much so I wouldn't know.

[Brinniel]

Do you have better candidates? It's admirable to make sure you scrutinize everyone, not just the most vocal people. But not voting for someone you genuinely suspect because you think it might be a trap or get messy? This seems to be dancing too easily on the edge of voting whomever works out best for yourself. Brin, can I please request a summary of who you actually suspect?
Between the three of you that have been brought up, I found Pitchwife's posts to be most suspicious. However, I'm second-guessing myself because I'm starting to think he may just be easy cannon fodder for the wolves. I don't find Legate suspicious and reading your posts today, I'm less wary of you.

I honestly do not have time for full summary posts because I do actually have to work as I mentioned before. If I were to pick someone right now, I would say Inzil. I can't quite put my fingers on it, but I'd say it's mostly because he's one of the most frequent posters, yet I find him providing less of substance and just going with the flow. Easy way for a wolf to hide.

If I do have time I may take a look at those building a case against Pitchwife.

[Rikae]

It was said in a joking tone, but I was dead serious about you being inaccurate and exaggerating. The most inaccurate thing about Mac you've addressed as an "oops, don't know how that got there" which sounds innocent but is still EXTREMELY unhelpful, since it sticks incorrectly in people's memories. When did Zil cast accusation on Legate as being a wolf? Find me that post, please, because I don't see one. What you said about Lommy - seriously?

I get that it's been part joke, but it's also so dangerous to half-seriously summarize things with such blatant exaggeration and inaccuracy, because again this is how it sticks in people's minds. Moreover, it's how people (especially yourself) can easily justify votes and suspicion later on - based on incorrect summaries. I can argue about the statements involving me as well, except that would be biased and there is sufficient to be said without it; the exception is the first statement, cause I can't recall where I "concluded" we need to lynch a wolf (I recall Lommy's post that you refer to but not mine).

So yes. A subtle diversion / tweaking of how people remember the events is not at all beyond your posts' potential achievements. Throw some unsupported shade on people, then dismiss half of it as a joke and half of it as an oopsy daisy, and the post gets forgiven but the shade remains. Actually, it was so bombastically inaccurate I am surprised only Mac called you out on it except for me.


It was indeed an exaggeration and over-generalization to see how people reacted, and you are certainly reacting.

Inzil agreed with Mac. At least that's how I read "Hmm. Perhaps."

If people are basing their votes on my comments a couple hours into day one, none of which I'm even using to support any suspicions, I don't know what they're doing. The only suspicion I even hinted at with any of that was of you, for subtly encouraging a plan/topic of conversation and then suspecting the person who pushed it forward.

That, in itself, isn't necessarily suspicious, but was enough to make me want to take a closer look. Which I did, and continue to do.

And now I'm really done with this topic.

[Rikae]

You’re arrested for Gate-breaking, and Tearing up of Rules, and Assaulting Gate-keepers, and - errr, that is, you're accused of Generalizing, Exaggerating, and Deliberately Misinterpreting and Misrepresenting Other Posts. I challenge you to defend your statements!


Actually, you know what?

What was I supposed to be deliberately misrepresenting? G55, you never did answer that.

[Galadriel55]

As for sidestepping, I'm here to catch wolves, not get bogged down justifying the steps I took to do so.

This is just about the worst thing you can say to improve my opinion. So now you should get a free card to do whatever and not have your words questioned, because it's in the name of catching wolves? That is quite an irritable and jumpy response to a bit of pressure.

However:

Anyway, right now my fake vote would go to:

++Brinniel

For immediately repeating 2 of 3 names from my list as suspicions, and then backtracking explicitly to avoid getting caught in a trap right after I explained to G55 that my post was intended as a wolf trap. That was ostensibly a reply to Mac saying the group was mostly innocent, but the coincidence is just too much for me to ignore.

I know, these are the kinds of things a wolf would definitely make sure not to do, right? Right. So much so, it could be used as cover. And an innocent doing them coincidentally? That feels like a bigger stretch to me.

This actually makes sense, and doesn't ring evil.

This was still very early on Day 1, and frankly, I am not sure what in this post you think is so inaccurate. Is it a bit tongue in cheek? Yeah, maybe. But I'm pretty sure everything Rikae summarized actually was part of the early banter and tentative strategy talk. If you were a wolf, I could see you not wanting to focus on the other members of the G55-Legate-Pitch tangle, and wanting to try to start up a distracting bandwagon. I honestly don't really see the motivation for an ordo to devote this much energy towards a suspicion that isn't really built on much of anything. If we were doing the bonus vote, I would definitely be voting for G55 at this point.

Read that post again. And then try to match the statements with an actual post. See how that matches up.

Is it just me, or is hypothetically contemplating possible Wolf victories not entirely the action of an innocent villager?

Only if hypothetically contemplating possible village victories is not entirely the action of a Wolf. :p

Okay, I think I've caught up with the ever-moving present. I feel like the Day has split into three phases: phase 1 being the actual discussion over the fake votes idea, phase two being reactions to and suspicions over the parts people played in it, and now phase 3 is suspicion over those reactions. I want to reread phase 2, because I think phase 4 (analysing the current suspicions) is likely to be too deep down the rabbit hole: we'll all be looking at so many levels of info that you could form a plausible suspicion of everyone!

This is hilariously accurate.




I have online lectures starting in under an hour, so while I might pop in for a brief comment throughout the remainder of the Day I will vote before they start, in case things happen too quickly and I end up missing the deadline.

[Rikae]

This is just about the worst thing you can say to improve my opinion. So now you should get a free card to do whatever and not have your words questioned, because it's in the name of catching wolves? That is quite an irritable and jumpy response to a bit of pressure.


Is it? So be it. You keep waffling on whether I'm suspicious or not, but if you really think I'm your best bet, go ahead and vote for me.

I explained what I was doing, and you ignored it and demanded an explanation again ... and again. I call that getting bogged down. It is what it is, and there is nothing more to say. That post is not the justification for my current top suspects (torn between Brinniel and you, for actions after that post). Anyone who finds my explanation of that post unsatisfying is welcome to vote for me.

[Pitchwife]

I'd actually be surprised if there isn't at least one wolf among Rikae, Brinn, Kitanna and Lottie. The later on the Pitchwagon, the likelier.



G55 is all over the place, fairly confrontational, sometimes eyebrow-raising (about Urwen/Maeglin: really?:rolleyes:). Her all-out attack on Rikae just now does sound a lot like passionate innocent though and makes me feel better about her.
Paradoxically, so does Rikae's response so far.

[A Little Green]

Instead of rereading, I wrote a list to try and figure out who I need to reread. And, presumably, cross-posting with about a page's worth of stuff :rolleyes:

Lhuna – I’m not a fan of self-voting, and don’t agree with her on hating Day 1s – though I appreciate that’s a matter of opinion. Says she feels uneasy about Brinn, Inzil, Kitanna, Mac and Boro in the same post where she votes for herself. This could be convenient for a wolf as she’s effectively washing her hands of the whole lynch while still casting suspicion around, but on the other hand, would a wolf really go to the extent of voting for herself to avoid being associated with lynching somebody? It would be a flamboyantly risky move and I’m not sure if it would be worth it. Leaning innocent.

Kitanna – Called jumpy or tense by Lhuna and Gal55. Rune brings up a fair point on potential opportunism in how she latched on to Lhuna’s first post as suspicious. Need a reread.

Boro – Chirpy but I agree with Lommy that he's being oddly noncommittal. One to watch.

Lommy - Seemed a little on edge earlier regarding Gal and Legate’s fake-vote-plan, but was quite blasé about Huin’s suspicion of her (to the point of saying she’s doing exactly what she’d do as a wolf) which makes me more inclined to think she’s innocent than not. *** Okay since I wrote that she has said Huin is shady for suspecting her because she thinks she’s acting innocent. ??? I'd say that's just chirpy Lommy happy to be playing again but putting Huin on her suspect list because she thinks she looks innocent and he should agree is a bit strange even for her. :p

Legate – I don’t agree with a lot of what he’s saying but I’m leaning innocent on him too. Also potentially noteworthy though is his disagreement with those who think he is being framed. The convenient wolf thing to do in his circumstances would be to tacitly agree and play the “poor framed me” card (also takes care of finding someone to legitimately vote for), though admittedly an ordo feeling unjustly under fire could also be likely to believe he was being framed. But whatever his motives, Legate isn’t doing this.

The Ka – Calm and collected and reasonable. The trouble is, I know she can sound just as reasonable when she’s evil as when she’s not. Need a reread.

Brinn –This caught my eye:
I'm still a bit wary of G55 and Pitchwife (less so of the former), however I don't want to get caught in a trap. I think I will stay clear of this potential mess for toDay and focus elsewhere.
This is almost too blatantly convenient: keeping the perceived main suspects under fire by saying she is wary of them, but explicitly saying she will stay clear of the potential mess and go for someone else. My only concern is over whether a Brinnwolf would really say that so directly. Still, this is the fishiest thing I’ve seen so far so definitely merits a reread.

Kath - So far I agree with Gal55’s assessment of likely ordo figuring things out as she goes.

Rikae – Always tricky, but I like what I see so far – feels like an innocent Rikae poking around for reactions. Has a curious back and forth with Gal55.

Gal55 – Introduced the fake-vote-plan, then backtracked and found Legate odd for agreeing with it. More trigger-happy than most – suspected Lommy and Ka early on for disregarding early posts as evidence, which would have been a fair point but I read their comments more as offhand remarks on specific posts rather than serious arguments about the usefulness of early posts. Now very, very vocal against Rikae. Could be too chaotic for a wolf.

Rune – Brief, to the point, nothing to alarm (or reassure) me so far.

Eonwe - Careful and sensible, nothing alarming yet either. Hard to judge though as he seems sensible even when he's a wolf!

Inzil – I see my classic trap of getting nervous about Inzil because I don’t suspect him. Need a reread.

Mac – Interesting back and forth with Pitchwife where they’re essentially suspecting each other of doing things they do themselves. Suspected by Rikae and Legate, defended by Huin. No major alarm bells so far.

Pitchwife – I actually found his aforementioned interactions with Mac more interesting than those with Gal55 and Legate, but need a reread to figure any of it out.

Huinesoron – Doesn’t follow the herd and brings up points others haven’t. Suspected Lommy, defended Mac. I get a good vibe so far, though worth keeping an eye on.

Urwen – Nothing to analyse yet, hope she makes another appearance
Lalaith – Haven’t seen much of her yet either
Shasta – Come back please
Sally – You too

Lottie – Flying completely under my radar, which is odd considering she’s been around a fair bit. Definitely need a reread.


EDIT: x-ed since Eonwe's list

[Nogrod]

To answer & comment two things.


There are no retractable votes aka. voting with highlighted letters is final.

You may make "fake-votes", but please make them clearly different, as you have nicly done thus far (I actually liked Lommy's version of using +- in front of the vote).


Speaking of hypothetical ideas, this scenario kinda came into my mind last night. So, it's the EndGame, and alive are Wolf, Hunter (hunting the Wolf), and Ordo. Ordo dies. Wolf devours Hunter, but Hunter takes down the wolf. Does either side win?
If that is the situation on the end of the Day and the Ordo is voted out, then Wolves win, because at the start of the Night it is 1-1 which by default means Wolf-victory.

If we go into the Night with those three, the Wolf has, purely numerically, 75% chance on winning. Picking the Ordo by Night the Wolf wins: when Day breaks it's 1-1. Picking the Hunter the wolf has 50-50 chance of winning, depending on whether the Hunter hunts the Wolf or the Ordo.

In Real Game circumstances the odds surely are different because there can be well founded suspicions or even knowledge involved in the picks the last players make.

[Macalaure]

I don't know how the whole Gala/Rikae thing blew up.

Rikae made an error in their summary a good while ago, and admitted it in #128, but Gala is insisting that it was an intentional error? Seems far-fetched to me.

Being curt is one thing, being deliberately wrong is another. And she just - sidesteps - the questioning from myself and Mac, like that post never happened.Wait right there... as far as I'm concerned, my questions are answered!

How are you so sure that it was deliberate?

bombastically inaccurate:rolleyes:


Anyway...

Do people like Mac without butter?I'm pretty good raw, but butter just really brings out my flavor. ;)


And fake votes, eh?

+-Macalaure

Chew on that! :p

[Rikae]

I might not make it back before the DL, so I'll cast my vote now.

I really can't make up my mind about G55 and I feel like her current behavior could possibly throw my judgement off. I'm keeping my eye on her, but:

++Brinniel

For reasons previously listed (opportunism, avoiding a trap), and a general safe-wolf, tiptoe-around-the-edges vibe.

[Brinniel]

Okay, took a quick look back at some posts. Regarding the whole Legate/G55/Pitchwife bit, I find Kitanna's reactions most suspicious. She seems quick to point out that there is likely a wolf among the group.

[Boromir88]

A little past 3 hours until deadline...

A tally of "I would vote for"

Shasta for Lommy (This was before the half-way point of Day 1. I wouldn't read it as something Shasta would stick to now. It was his last slight spurt of posting)
Boro for Legate (post 113 for a reference)
Rikae for Brinn (post 148)
Lommy for Boro (post 150)
Legate for Kitanna (post 151)
Lottie for G55 (post 152, but I think the reasoning is from post 149)

If I missed anyone's sorry...hard to kind spot them. Those were the ones that I already specifically noted. So, yeah, Day 1 shots in the dark. It is rather interesting to judge and look at what's going on.

Boro - he's really weird in this game. Yeah yeah, maybe he's just happy to play again. Or maybe his playing style changed over the years when we were not playing. But I'm mostly worried about the fact that he's not half as confrontational as usual, but instead posting long introspective rambles where he conveniently doesn't have to go toe-to-toe with anyone.~Lommy

Take this however, but true, it's exactly my tone right now. True, I like to get in there and pick fights, but find the task hard to do on Day 1. How do you get right in there after someone based on completely random reasons? I find the task difficult and then get more aggressive as more solid reasons come in.

Then with some of the other kerfuffles taking place today, I hold back being involved to let the plot play out. Not all planning is evil and I try to avoid drawing attention towards people until I'm more sure of intent.

The one thing I was most certain of agreeing with today was Pitch's comment that there was a difference in that LGP group between Legate's "enthusiasm" in jumping on G55's question to stir conversation. If I'm reading correctly now. Did Pitch sort of back away from suspecting G55, to defending G55, and back track again? I'm going back through those interactions, because if true, that does ping more to my fight senses than anything else today.

And then the true vote tally...

Lhuna for Lhuna

Edit: crossed with everything since last post on Page 4

[Galadriel55]

It was indeed an exaggeration and over-generalization to see how people reacted, and you are certainly reacting.

Indeed! I react when I see false information. I expect everyone to do so and I'm very disappointed in the village for not doing the same.

Whereas you did the opposite. The first couple times I put you under a bit of pressure and asked for an explanation of that post you avoided the topic altogether. Then you stated you aren't here to explain yourself. And when I put my arguments forward - then you started partially explaining where your statements came from. You're not the only one who can gauge reactions.

Inzil agreed with Mac. At least that's how I read "Hmm. Perhaps."

Last time I checked the word "perhaps" means consideration, not agreement. See below.

Actually, you know what?

What was I supposed to be deliberately misrepresenting? G55, you never did answer that.

Do you mean to say that your phrasing was not deliberate? "Conclusion"? "Agreed"? "Decided"?

Is it? So be it. You keep waffling on whether I'm suspicious or not, but if you really think I'm your best bet, go ahead and vote for me.

I explained what I was doing, and you ignored it and demanded an explanation again ... and again. I call that getting bogged down. It is what it is, and there is nothing more to say. That post is not the justification for my current top suspects (torn between Brinniel and you, for actions after that post). Anyone who finds my explanation of that post unsatisfying is welcome to vote for me.

First of all, I might just do that. In fact, since I declared my false-vote, you've been acting so jumpy that you haven't done much to dissuade me.

Secondly, keep in mind that all of our posts are cross-posted, and therefore most of my posts have cross-posted with an explanation.

[Pitchwife]

OK, Brinn, it's not like you yourself didn't suspect two out of three earlier, right? But I suppose that wasn't saying there's a wolf in there? And you find that suspicious from Kit now, after Mac already said so?

[Loslote]

Okay, took a quick look back at some posts. Regarding the whole Legate/G55/Pitchwife bit, I find Kitanna's reactions most suspicious. She seems quick to point out that there is likely a wolf among the group.

OK, Brinn, it's not like you yourself didn't suspect two out of three earlier, right? But I suppose that wasn't saying there's a wolf in there? And you find that suspicious from Kit now, after Mac already said so?

Yeah, I don't trust that from Brinn. I think she's suspected Kit before now, but that particular post doesn't seem like it's adding anything new to the conversation. I'm not sure how to read her non-reaction to the suspicion thrown her way - would a wolf just...not really engage with that? I definitely see why people are suspecting her, but there are some other factors that look more innocent, so I'm pretty torn on Brinn.

[Nogrod]

A little past 3 hours until deadline...
I hope you noted you posted this 2 hours and 11 minutes before the Deadline, not about three hours before it?

The Deadline is, as of right now, exactly two hours.

In following Days this is the time when the QT vote is released.

[Pitchwife]

If I'm reading correctly now. Did Pitch sort of back away from suspecting G55, to defending G55, and back track again?
You're reading correctly that I'm flipflopping bigtime about her, yes, but more in the reverse order... I think.



Eönwë's list was such a mass of 'don't know', 'not sure', 'could be this could be that' as to put Mr Agreeable himself to shame.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Here and reading.

[Galadriel55]

++ Rikae

Not for her accidental mistake of misreading Mac's post as a suspicion of wolvery rather than cobblery, as has been said above. But for failure (still) to explain one of the parts for which I can find no post, for failure to admit her mistake about Inzil, and most of all for her insistence that she own no one an explanation and her jumpy irritability when questioned.

If it was not Rikae, it would be Brin. However, I still wasn't able to do a full Brin-read, and besides, there is more than one wolf in this village, so maybe we will both turn out right. I stand by my suspicion.


I will predictably be crossed since my last post.

[Boromir88]

I hope you noted you posted this 2 hours and 11 minutes before the Deadline, not about three hours before it?

The Deadline is, as of right now, exactly two hours.

In following Days this is the time when the QT vote is released.

Oh my. Thank you. Yeah that could have turned out screwing up my timeline

[A Little Green]

I'm not sure what to make of Gal55’s conviction that Rikae is guilty. I read Rikae’s first post as slightly tongue-in-cheek, not unlike tongue-in-cheek summaries by other players early in the game. Rikae said Mac suspected Legate of being a wolf when he actually suspected him of being a cobbler, and later explained that this was a mistake.

Honestly? Yes, a wolf might exaggerate something their target said or take it out of context in order to make a case, but deliberately lying about what another player said on the thread would be something else. It would be a really low move and I can’t imagine Rikae (or anyone else here, for that matter) doing that whatever their role. I could see Gal55 as an ordo who believes she’s caught a wolf and is frustrated that her views aren’t getting support; but equally, I could see a nervous Galwolf trying to make a big case against someone other than herself.


EDIT: x-ed with Gal and Boro

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

Yeah, I don't trust that from Brinn. I think she's suspected Kit before now, but that particular post doesn't seem like it's adding anything new to the conversation. I'm not sure how to read her non-reaction to the suspicion thrown her way - would a wolf just...not really engage with that? I definitely see why people are suspecting her, but there are some other factors that look more innocent, so I'm pretty torn on Brinn.

You don't trust her because she is reaffirming a suspicion and thus not bringing anything new to table? I want to make sure I understand the reasoning behind your suspicion correctly, as Brinniel is not one I have paid particular attention to.

[Rikae]

Indeed! I react when I see false information. I expect everyone to do so and I'm very disappointed in the village for not doing the same.

Yes, it's a shame the village doesn't share your conviction that an error from someone who, conveniently, suspects you isn't a clear sign of wolvishness.

Whereas you did the opposite. The first couple times I put you under a bit of pressure and asked for an explanation of that post you avoided the topic altogether. Then you stated you aren't here to explain yourself. And when I put my arguments forward - then you started partially explaining where your statements came from. You're not the only one who can gauge reactions.

But between the two of us, the only one who might be gauging them correctly. You actually seem to think I'm afraid of you.

Last time I checked the word "perhaps" means consideration, not agreement. See below.

Thanks for the English lesson.

Do you mean to say that your phrasing was not deliberate? "Conclusion"? "Agreed"? "Decided"?

What in Arda are you even talking about?

First of all, I might just do that. In fact, since I declared my false-vote, you've been acting so jumpy that you haven't done much to dissuade me.

What makes you think I'm trying to dissuade you? If you want to make some illogical case against me, honestly, you'll probably just end up hurting yourself in the long run.

Edit: X'd with G55, Boro, Green, Rune

[Galadriel55]

I'm not sure what to make of Gal55’s conviction that Rikae is guilty. I read Rikae’s first post as slightly tongue-in-cheek, not unlike tongue-in-cheek summaries by other players early in the game. Rikae said Mac suspected Legate of being a wolf when he actually suspected him of being a cobbler, and later explained that this was a mistake.

Honestly? Yes, a wolf might exaggerate something their target said or take it out of context in order to make a case, but deliberately lying about what another player said on the thread would be something else. It would be a really low move and I can’t imagine Rikae (or anyone else here, for that matter) doing that whatever their role. I could see Gal55 as an ordo who believes she’s caught a wolf and is frustrated that her views aren’t getting support; but equally, I could see a nervous Galwolf trying to make a big case against someone other than herself.

It's not a WW game without me and Rikae getting into a flame war, isn't it? :rolleyes:

Edit: xed with the lady herself

[Loslote]

You don't trust her because she is reaffirming a suspicion and thus not bringing anything new to table? I want to make sure I understand the reasoning behind your suspicion correctly, as Brinniel is not one I have paid particular attention to.

Okay, took a quick look back at some posts. Regarding the whole Legate/G55/Pitchwife bit, I find Kitanna's reactions most suspicious. She seems quick to point out that there is likely a wolf among the group.

Partially. The other issue for me is the way she frames it - she took a quick look back, and the only thing she found worth posting was a re-phrasing of something other people have said? She's said before that she suspects Kit, and that post feels more like she's restating other people's points to add to her own justification for suspicion. Also, I don't like that she didn't mention anyone else, either to compare to Kit's reaction or to mention that other people were also suspicious. At any rate, I don't trust her, but I'm not necessarily saying I suspect her, if that makes sense. I'd put her with Boro in a "keep an eye on" group.

[Huinesoron]

Okay, I've stolen a little more time on the actual computer to read over "Phase 2" (people's comments on the G55/Legate/Pitch debate). Note that this does not mean I no longer suspect Pitch, G55, and Lommy (in no particular order); just that I'm consciously examining the rest of the village too. (I'm also not highlighting every post that's part of "Phase 2"; just the ones that jump out at me.)

I think Phase Two starts around #52, when Macalaure considers Legate cobblerish, but the first post that jumps out is Rikae, #69, which asserts that:

And G55 and Lommy have decided that Legate is a cobbler, and Inzil and Mac have suggested he's infected?

... which, putting those side by side, is actually straight-up wrong. Mac suggested the possibility of Legate-Wolf, but mostly came down on cobbler.

Hang on, didn't I see the number #69 on the current page? Right, yes, G55 caught it in #156. Which I guess suggests that a Rikae-G55 pack is unlikely?

Interestingly, I think this is also the first post to suspect Macalaure, which puts Rikae doubly in my 'worrisome' category. We'll see where it goes.

#71: Brinniel suggests there could be 'no wolves involved' in the fake-vote discussion, then says she's wary of both Pitch and G55. Not a very consistent position, but useful if Legate seemed in need of protection.

#72: G55 catches the error ('error'?) in #69, but presents it in a joking manner, so it doesn't really get picked up.

#78: Lommy approves of the fake-vote discussion for getting things rolling, and pins the credit on Legate - but also immediately rejects it as 'an insane idea' and wonders aloud why Legate would do it. These are within the very same sentence, which I guess is that "trademark flipflopping" at work (that phrase comes up in this same post). It's also a really convenient way to either make an innocent look bad without coming on too strong, or to make a fellow wolf look good without seeming like you're on their side. So it says nothing about Legate, but something about Lommy.

#81: Conveniently at the top of page 3, Kath lays out Phase 1 almost precisely (she stops with Mac's post that I see as the start of Phase 2). I think this post will be a oft-used reference for Phase 1, if we wind up still discussing it after toDay (I believe it's the 'evolutionary' post Legate later refers to). She mostly sticks to the facts, so it's hard to get a read off her here.

#91: Lommy. Not particularly striking for its Phase 2 content, but for the 'I would definitely play up my flipflopping if I were a wolf' she gave to me. I'm afraid I dropped the ball on this one - I'd forgotten what I said by the time I saw what she said, so I just took 'that's a fair point' and moved on. It's really making me suspicious right now.

#95: Kitanna discusses a Galadriwolf or PitchWolf, but interestingly doesn't suggest a pack. She does seem to suggest G55 and Rikae as a pack with this:

*side eyes both [G55 & Rikae]* Orchestrated wolf action? I suppose not likely, but the more I read of G55 the more I raise my eyebrows.

She could be a wolf using this to pile suspicion on G55? I'm not strongly suspicious of this one, though.

#97: Mac finds Legate suspicious for going after all his accusers. This could be a slightly dodgy claim (I feel like going after anyone who accuses you is pretty classic Werewolf), but it doesn't worry me overmuch.

#98 & #100: Pitch continues to suspect Legate, but also pitches (sorry) in on Mac. Still thinking about how this interacts with G55's interactions with Rikae, who also suspected Mac.

#104: Kitanna suspects a wolf in the GLP, but can't decide who. Really interestingly, she says she didn't suspect Legate until #88 - but her previous post was #95, where she didn't mention this suspicion. Cross-posting is possible, I guess?

#109: Kath. It looks like Phase 2 might be winding up, as she's starting to analyse interactions from it (Mac and Pitch).

#113: Boro discusses Legate-Wolf, but is pretty non-committal. Could be seen as a light defence of wolf-Legate? Or as a light attack on innocent-Legate? But nothing overly strong.

I think that's the bulk of Phase 2. I'm dubious about Rikae, but the one who jumps out at me is Lommy. I've had... three or four different suspicions of her at this point, I think? I'm still worried about Pitch, and to an extent G55 (but mostly by association with PitchWolf, unless I'm forgetting something), but Lommy is at the top of my list.

Right, checking the last few posts to see what's changed...

Okay, G55 reminds of that odd 'hey what if this specific scenario happened, would I still be a wolf winner?' question, so I guess I do have something else on her. Mac points out that Rikae's misrepresentation of him could be a simple mistake (I think someone's misattributed something to me somewhere, though I can't find it), which does make G55's continued pulling on the thread somewhat sketchy.

There's a lot of suspicion on Brinn in the last few posts (I see Rikae, Pitch, and Loslote), which seems to have come a bit out of nowhere. Did it build over the course of page 4? Ah, looks like it did, including G55's comment that Brinn 'seems to post without leaving any impression'. That tallies with what I'm getting, but I've not gotten any impression that she's up to something.

... but Lommy has, as maybe the third or fourth person to cast suspicion on her (in #144 she dedicates her longest paragraph to contrasting her with Eonwe).

Okay, I should be able to actually-vote later, and in the event that we see a G55/Pitch vs Legate breakdown I will vote for one of the former, but for now my not-vote sits on +-Lommy.

hS

[Rikae]

Not for her accidental mistake of misreading Mac's post as a suspicion of wolvery rather than cobblery, as has been said above. But for failure (still) to explain one of the parts for which I can find no post, for failure to admit her mistake about Inzil, and most of all for her insistence that she own no one an explanation and her jumpy irritability when questioned.


Oh wow.

If you mean why I said Inzil suspected Legate, I did explain it, and you responded to it with your little English lesson, so please don't try to tell me that was crossposted as well.

I can't imagine what could possibly be irritating me. Obviously only a wolf would be annoyed by this. :rolleyes:

[Rikae]

It's not a WW game without me and Rikae getting into a flame war, isn't it? :rolleyes:

Edit: xed with the lady herself

Not my idea of fun, and I tried to avoid it. Please don't call me "lady".

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

Partially. The other issue for me is the way she frames it - she took a quick look back, and the only thing she found worth posting was a re-phrasing of something other people have said? She's said before that she suspects Kit, and that post feels more like she's restating other people's points to add to her own justification for suspicion. Also, I don't like that she didn't mention anyone else, either to compare to Kit's reaction or to mention that other people were also suspicious. At any rate, I don't trust her, but I'm not necessarily saying I suspect her, if that makes sense. I'd put her with Boro in a "keep an eye on" group.

Where did she first voice suspicion of Kitanna, I must have missed it.

She mentions Inzil, Pitchwife and G55 early on, sticks with Inzil for a while and then switches to Kitanna in her latest post #168.

[Brinniel]

I'm not sure how to read her non-reaction to the suspicion thrown her way - would a wolf just...not really engage with that?
It's Day 1, so people are bound to throw suspicion in the wrong direction, so no I'm not worried if some people are wary of me.

OK, Brinn, it's not like you yourself didn't suspect two out of three earlier, right? But I suppose that wasn't saying there's a wolf in there? And you find that suspicious from Kit now, after Mac already said so?
I don't recall what Mac said...it's hard to keep up with all the posts. It was just an observation I made as looked back at several posts referring to you. And yes I still do find you on the slightly suspicious side, but I don't think enough to vote you. G55's exchange with Rikae makes me more inclined to think her innocent (seems like a squabble between two innocents really).

[Shastanis Althreduin]

I'm not sure what to make of Gal55’s conviction that Rikae is guilty. I read Rikae’s first post as slightly tongue-in-cheek, not unlike tongue-in-cheek summaries by other players early in the game. Rikae said Mac suspected Legate of being a wolf when he actually suspected him of being a cobbler, and later explained that this was a mistake.

Honestly? Yes, a wolf might exaggerate something their target said or take it out of context in order to make a case, but deliberately lying about what another player said on the thread would be something else. It would be a really low move and I can’t imagine Rikae (or anyone else here, for that matter) doing that whatever their role. I could see Gal55 as an ordo who believes she’s caught a wolf and is frustrated that her views aren’t getting support; but equally, I could see a nervous Galwolf trying to make a big case against someone other than herself.


EDIT: x-ed with Gal and Boro

Based on nothing more than this description of events I'd speculate on Cobbler-G55 and Innocent-Rikae. My opinion may change after I get context.

[A Little Green]

I had a quick look at Kitanna. I don't really get a nervous or on-edge vibe from her like some others have said. She does seem quite quick to low-level suspect - early on she says Lhuna is suspicious for explicitly not posting anything of content when there would already have been stuff to comment on; she speculates on Gal and Rikae being potential wolf-on-wolf (this was before it developed into an all-out war) and suspects Gal for her reaction to the fake-vote-plan debacle and for being too helpful, speculates on Pitch being an opportunistic wolf for his role in said debacle, and says Legate seems the most innocent of the trio but thinks his list post is suspicious.

I don't necessarily think this amounts to suspicious behaviour from Kitanna - she definitely started suspecting people (using that actual word) earlier than most, and has used it of more people than most, but if anything it makes me feel better about her. A wolf might want to appear more consistent, or less confrontational. My current vibe is more of an ordo stirring the pot and voicing early bad vibes in order to get discussion going.

The only thing I was wary of was her argument that there is likely to be a wolf in the Pitch-Gal-Legate -trio - as others have pointed out, there's no basis for this really but it would be a very convenient idea for a wolf to advocate.

In sum, not convinced either way but leaning more innocent than not.


EDIT: x-ed with Shasta

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Partially. The other issue for me is the way she frames it - she took a quick look back, and the only thing she found worth posting was a re-phrasing of something other people have said? She's said before that she suspects Kit, and that post feels more like she's restating other people's points to add to her own justification for suspicion. Also, I don't like that she didn't mention anyone else, either to compare to Kit's reaction or to mention that other people were also suspicious. At any rate, I don't trust her, but I'm not necessarily saying I suspect her, if that makes sense. I'd put her with Boro in a "keep an eye on" group.

Bah. "Keep an eye on" is not a moniker I'm comfortable with in terms of being vague.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

A little past 3 hours until deadline...

A tally of "I would vote for"

Shasta for Lommy (This was before the half-way point of Day 1. I wouldn't read it as something Shasta would stick to now. It was his last slight spurt of posting)


It's worth noting nothing so far has swayed me on Lommy in that she was my first real ping, but she deserves a thorough re-read.

Much more interesting and pressing is Pitch/Eonwe, in my mind. Rikae/G55 has played itself out, in my opinion - Rikae reads innocent to me and the jury's still out on G55, though I'd lean Cobbler over Wolf if she's evil, based on the timing.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

You're reading correctly that I'm flipflopping bigtime about her, yes, but more in the reverse order... I think.



Eönwë's list was such a mass of 'don't know', 'not sure', 'could be this could be that' as to put Mr Agreeable himself to shame.

This, I want more context on this.

[Pitchwife]

This, I want more context on this.
Which part of it?

[THE Ka]

I don't know how the whole Gala/Rikae thing blew up.

Rikae made an error in her summary a good while ago, and admitted it in #128, but Gala is insisting that it was an intentional error? Seems far-fetched to me.

I started to sense it less as a trial and more just head butting over play styles. They both know how to put the pressure on and have a very direct approach. With that in mind as I’ve noted before, I’m not curious about those who’ve been the most direct. I’m wondering about those who’ve been on their sidelines during the debate. That’s an awfully safe shadow to nod along in…

I'd actually be surprised if there isn't at least one wolf among Rikae, Brinn, Kitanna and Lottie. The later on the Pitchwagon, the likelier.

Well, that wouldn’t be Kitanna late to that bandwagon… :p

I’ve re-read five of their posts since #36 and they’ve went from very iffy to consistent accusation against you, I’ll give them that at least.
What I’m more suspicious of, is those riding in their wake first with the Legate-G55-Pitch and now with G55-Rikae.

Between Brinn and Loslote, Brinn is playing far safer in their submarine by just throwing a ‘I have a hunch’ dart at Zil and following the G55-Rikae debate with mild defense of the Day 1 blues. That’s safe and yes, even villagers could take up that tactic, but this consistently? Hrrm.

I would have suspected Loslote for trying to play it too safe in the shadow of G55-Rikae with their comment about latching onto bandwagons and trying to cozy up to Rikae with a consistent criticism of G55’s arguments, but they do later begin to step out.

If you were a wolf, I could see you not wanting to focus on the other members of the G55-Legate-Pitch tangle, and wanting to try to start up a distracting bandwagon.

For all my suspicions, that’s a pretty valid point. One that began to make me doubt Loslote of obvious wolfish hiding.

On the flip side, G55 and Rikae have played pretty true to character, so it’s not odd at all for them to butt heads. If orchestrated for the sake of distraction as Kit suspects in post #95, it’s going rather well for whoever needs that cover.

Between the two, only Loslote has when come under fire participated in giving a reason why at least for their support for either side in either debate, while Brinn so far as I’ve caught up, has shied away consistently. It makes me all the more suspicious Brinn is playing it entirely too safe out of the two.

[Loslote]

Based on nothing more than this description of events I'd speculate on Cobbler-G55 and Innocent-Rikae. My opinion may change after I get context.

This actually makes sense. I could believe Cobbler-G55. I read Rikae as innocent through the whole exchange, and I do not read G55 as innocent at all, but she could go either cobbler or wolf for me.

[Macalaure]

I won't be around near the deadline, so I'll have to vote soon, and I don't know who for.

Legate seems fairly fine, actually. Pitch still seems tense to me, but that alone is not enough. The way Gala went all out after Rikae makes me think she's innocent. Rikae's response doesn't point in either direction, so I don't have anything there either. Inzil is suspiciously unsuspicious (for his standards). Huin seems reasonable. Boro plays with the pressure-less cheer of an ordo. I feel fairly good about Greenie and THE Ka. Many people are quiet. I don't have any opinion on a whole bunch yet.

It's Day 1, so people are bound to throw suspicion in the wrong direction, so no I'm not worried if some people are wary of me.

This is odd. Some innocents have a habit of seeing wolves behind every accusation against them, which isn't helpful either, but usually people at least look closely and make their judgement - not because they're afraid of getting lynched necessarily, but to hunt for wolves. This comment only mentions self preservation.
Some wolves do it this way, as to not draw the village's attention to any suspicions.

Looking at Brinniel's past posts, there's some mild suspicion towards G55, Pitch, Legate, Inzil, then Kitanna later, but it's quite lukewarm. On Legate:

Is it suspicious? Perhaps, but not necessarily.I wish I had noticed this one earlier. That's wolfie way to word things.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Instead of rereading, I wrote a list to try and figure out who I need to reread. And, presumably, cross-posting with about a page's worth of stuff :rolleyes:

Lhuna – I’m not a fan of self-voting, and don’t agree with her on hating Day 1s – though I appreciate that’s a matter of opinion. Says she feels uneasy about Brinn, Inzil, Kitanna, Mac and Boro in the same post where she votes for herself. This could be convenient for a wolf as she’s effectively washing her hands of the whole lynch while still casting suspicion around, but on the other hand, would a wolf really go to the extent of voting for herself to avoid being associated with lynching somebody? It would be a flamboyantly risky move and I’m not sure if it would be worth it. Leaning innocent.

I wouldn't go that far. Nilp-esque self-votes don't strike me as alignment-indicative for some people, and Lhuna is one of those people (from what I can recall, anyway, it's been quite some time!)

Kitanna – Called jumpy or tense by Lhuna and Gal55. Rune brings up a fair point on potential opportunism in how she latched on to Lhuna’s first post as suspicious. Need a reread.

Boro – Chirpy but I agree with Lommy that he's being oddly noncommittal. One to watch.

I don't know if I agree that opportunism this early makes sense; I also tend to think, based on Greenie's read of the situation, that Rune ought to look just as opportunistic, but doesn't for some reason? Why's that, Greenie?

Shrug re: Boro.

Lommy - Seemed a little on edge earlier regarding Gal and Legate’s fake-vote-plan, but was quite blasé about Huin’s suspicion of her (to the point of saying she’s doing exactly what she’d do as a wolf) which makes me more inclined to think she’s innocent than not. *** Okay since I wrote that she has said Huin is shady for suspecting her because she thinks she’s acting innocent. ??? I'd say that's just chirpy Lommy happy to be playing again but putting Huin on her suspect list because she thinks she looks innocent and he should agree is a bit strange even for her. :p

Hm. I don't know if I agree with this take.

Legate – I don’t agree with a lot of what he’s saying but I’m leaning innocent on him too. Also potentially noteworthy though is his disagreement with those who think he is being framed. The convenient wolf thing to do in his circumstances would be to tacitly agree and play the “poor framed me” card (also takes care of finding someone to legitimately vote for), though admittedly an ordo feeling unjustly under fire could also be likely to believe he was being framed. But whatever his motives, Legate isn’t doing this.

I recall getting good vibes from reading what Legate had to say last night, in terms of me agreeing with him. Not sure about the framing aspect, I probably need context for that.[/quote]

The Ka – Calm and collected and reasonable. The trouble is, I know she can sound just as reasonable when she’s evil as when she’s not. Need a reread.

Brinn –This caught my eye:

This is almost too blatantly convenient: keeping the perceived main suspects under fire by saying she is wary of them, but explicitly saying she will stay clear of the potential mess and go for someone else. My only concern is over whether a Brinnwolf would really say that so directly. Still, this is the fishiest thing I’ve seen so far so definitely merits a reread.

Waffled a bit about typing this, but shrug, why not. I think if Greenie is evil, she's very easily evil with Ka here. That's the exact kind of nonread a wolf gives about another wolf.

I do enjoy the read on Brinniel though, I think it's got merit in terms of what innocent-Greenie might think. So six of one, half-dozen of the other.

Kath - So far I agree with Gal55’s assessment of likely ordo figuring things out as she goes.

Rikae – Always tricky, but I like what I see so far – feels like an innocent Rikae poking around for reactions. Has a curious back and forth with Gal55.

Didn't realize Kath was playing, but that's my own failing.

Agree on Rikae.

Gal55 – Introduced the fake-vote-plan, then backtracked and found Legate odd for agreeing with it. More trigger-happy than most – suspected Lommy and Ka early on for disregarding early posts as evidence, which would have been a fair point but I read their comments more as offhand remarks on specific posts rather than serious arguments about the usefulness of early posts. Now very, very vocal against Rikae. Could be too chaotic for a wolf.

"Too chaotic for a wolf" is the basis of my Cobbler read there.

Rune – Brief, to the point, nothing to alarm (or reassure) me so far.

Eonwe - Careful and sensible, nothing alarming yet either. Hard to judge though as he seems sensible even when he's a wolf!

Inzil – I see my classic trap of getting nervous about Inzil because I don’t suspect him. Need a reread.

See Ka. These all sound the same. Not saying it's bad, but it's notable to me at least. The Rune read also has the discrepancy between it and the Kitanna read to think about.

Mac – Interesting back and forth with Pitchwife where they’re essentially suspecting each other of doing things they do themselves. Suspected by Rikae and Legate, defended by Huin. No major alarm bells so far.

This one I want to check on. I don't have a read on Mac myself yet.

Pitchwife – I actually found his aforementioned interactions with Mac more interesting than those with Gal55 and Legate, but need a reread to figure any of it out.

Pitch is an interesting case. I want to hear what caused him to speak up about Eonwe's list - Pitch, do you not find several of Greenie's reads to be as "agreeable"?

Huinesoron – Doesn’t follow the herd and brings up points others haven’t. Suspected Lommy, defended Mac. I get a good vibe so far, though worth keeping an eye on.

I don't have a baseline here.

Urwen – Nothing to analyse yet, hope she makes another appearance
Lalaith – Haven’t seen much of her yet either
Shasta – Come back please
Sally – You too

Lottie – Flying completely under my radar, which is odd considering she’s been around a fair bit. Definitely need a reread.


EDIT: x-ed since Eonwe's list

:p

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Which part of it?

Mentioned it just now in my shameless piggybacking of Greenie's read post, because I am tired. :Merisu:

[Nogrod]

You sure are going for the last hour vote.

An official tally, by courtesy of your Mod, an hour before the Deadline.

Day1 - votes

Lhuna -> Lhuna
Rikae -> Brinniel
G55 -> Rikae

[Boromir88]

The longer I wait the more nerve-wracking it's going to be on me and I really don't like the prospect of let's have a flurry Day 1 dl voting to have a bit of a "toss-up." Nerve-wracking.

Yes, changing from my intended vote of Legate to

++Pitch

There's a nonchalance to his admitted going back and forth and flip-flopping between Legate and G55. Most of us go through the flip-flopping about people, but his efforts looked more directed at sowing confusion in an effort to play both sides.

Not leaving completely, but wanted to get that done. No point waiting, when I'm just going over the same posts again and again.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

I started to sense it less as a trial and more just head butting over play styles. They both know how to put the pressure on and have a very direct approach. With that in mind as I’ve noted before, I’m not curious about those who’ve been the most direct. I’m wondering about those who’ve been on their sidelines during the debate. That’s an awfully safe shadow to nod along in…



Well, that wouldn’t be Kitanna late to that bandwagon… :p

I’ve re-read five of their posts since #36 and they’ve went from very iffy to consistent accusation against you, I’ll give them that at least.
What I’m more suspicious of, is those riding in their wake first with the Legate-G55-Pitch and now with G55-Rikae.

Between Brinn and Loslote, Brinn is playing far safer in their submarine by just throwing a ‘I have a hunch’ dart at Zil and following the G55-Rikae debate with mild defense of the Day 1 blues. That’s safe and yes, even villagers could take up that tactic, but this consistently? Hrrm.

I would have suspected Loslote for trying to play it too safe in the shadow of G55-Rikae with their comment about latching onto bandwagons and trying to cozy up to Rikae with a consistent criticism of G55’s arguments, but they do later begin to step out.



For all my suspicions, that’s a pretty valid point. One that began to make me doubt Loslote of obvious wolfish hiding.

On the flip side, G55 and Rikae have played pretty true to character, so it’s not odd at all for them to butt heads. If orchestrated for the sake of distraction as Kit suspects in post #95, it’s going rather well for whoever needs that cover.

Between the two, only Loslote has when come under fire participated in giving a reason why at least for their support for either side in either debate, while Brinn so far as I’ve caught up, has shied away consistently. It makes me all the more suspicious Brinn is playing it entirely too safe out of the two.

Oh, I quite like this post.

[Urwen]

++ G55

Because I am Morleg and I am spiteful.

[Thinlómien]

#78: Lommy approves of the fake-vote discussion for getting things rolling, and pins the credit on Legate - but also immediately rejects it as 'an insane idea' and wonders aloud why Legate would do it. These are within the very same sentence, which I guess is that "trademark flipflopping" at work (that phrase comes up in this same post).Heyyyy guess what I'm gonna stop calling it flipflopping now and start calling it looking at both sides of issues. For instance:

Legate starts talking about Gal55's "fake vote" plan seriously*
Pros: gets the ball rolling, starts the actual debate toDay (as opposed to mere banter) - and for this it really doesn't matter WHAT the discussion is about
Cons: as it's a somewhat unrealistic suggestion and not a plan that would really work out and merit a closer look, it's not something we should be stuck debating

* I always read Gal's original suggestion (that was a no-lynch plan unlike Legate's) as tongue in cheek, and I was under the impression Gal confirmed this?

Okay hopefully that's the very last thing from me both about the nature of flip-flopping and on how the fake vote discussion started rolling, because it's high time to move on.

~*~

That being said, I also wanted to move on from G55 BUT how can you when she's stirring up new drama right in front of our eyes? The whole spat with Rikae seems a little off to me. Reminds me of what Greenie said about wolves being consistent with their suspicion instead of changing their opinion upon new developments - anyone who's too certain about anything on Day1 makes me raise eyebrows.

~*~

Lottie's few last posts seem very level-headed to me, so I feel a bit better about her.

Boro's defence of his playing style toDay? Fair enough, I think, but he's still on my suspicion list.

I might have a quick look at Rune and Kitanna's posts to try pinpoint why I feel vaguely suspicious of them. I mean with Kitanna it might be classic playing style clash (which I have with Lottie too and to an extent Brinn - I wanted to say her very benevolent reaction to suspicion towards her rubbed me the wrong way but I think she might be like that as innocent too; and now that I'm on the topic maybe Huinesoron would belong to this category too?) but I'm more curious why I got evil vibes from Rune because he's not someone I always suspect on Day1s.


edit: xed with Nog and onwards

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Of those with votes, I won't vote for Rikae, could vote for Brinn or Pitch, and probably won't be voting for G55 unless it's to save someone I think is innocent.

[Inziladun]

So. Many. posts. :eek:

I have a minute right now, so I'm gonna go ahead and talk through my impressions on Boro so far. Boro is a bold player, especially as a wolf, in my experience. I'm getting a strong "brewing potential" vibe from Boro so far today - a sense of "big, bold plays may be coming" - which could very easily go innocent or wolf, given his playing style. I keep feeling like there's no reason for me to make a judgement call either way until he starts making his moves. I don't necessarily suspect him right now, and I would not vote for him toDay, but I am definitely going to keep an eye on him.

Boro was creeping me out early on, but that feeling has somewhat lessened.

I highly doubt the pack would come out in force and steer the wheel only to keep one packmember from fenrisizing themselves. Chances are that one of them will bite the dust at some point, and then people will look at their old posts. Such Day1 behavior can sink the wolfship on a later day.

Conventional pack behavior might point to one or two loudmouths, one middle-of-the-road, and the rest under the radar.

This is what I mean. I can feel a race between Pitch, G55, and Legate coming up, while the wolves are snickering in the background.

G55 has actually been my main candidate most of the Day. I'm still catching up, but it seemed Rikae spent a while suspecting her, then voted Brinn.
Then G55 votes Rikae What's up with that?


Do people like Mac without butter? Wait..maybe I'm confusing Mac for MaC (Macaroni and Cheese). Anyways, continue.

That is awesome.

I agree with this. I'm still a bit wary of G55 and Pitchwife (less so of the former), however I don't want to get caught in a trap. I think I will stay clear of this potential mess for toDay and focus elsewhere.

Interesting.

Yes it is. What kind of "trap?

x/d with I=Don't-Know-How-Many

[A Little Green]

It's Day 1, so people are bound to throw suspicion in the wrong direction, so no I'm not worried if some people are wary of me.
This is odd. Some innocents have a habit of seeing wolves behind every accusation against them, which isn't helpful either, but usually people at least look closely and make their judgement - not because they're afraid of getting lynched necessarily, but to hunt for wolves. This comment only mentions self preservation.
Some wolves do it this way, as to not draw the village's attention to any suspicions.This is a fair point. I've done that as a wolf in past games - that is, ignored other people's suspicions of myself in order not to draw any more attention to them.

I'm not sure I can stay awake until DL but Mac's post just made me rethink everything to the extent that my brain hurts. I still think Brinn looks sketchy, and I agree with Mac's points about her, but at the same time Mac's post about her makes me really uneasy. (Flip-flopping? Goes in the family, I'm afraid.) He literally starts with "I don't know who to vote for", then makes a reasonable argument against Brinn (quoted above), then quotes another bit from Brinn saying he wished he had noticed this earlier as her wording is "wolfie". This is literally like a wolf thought process written out in one post. I need someone to suspect -> come up with an argument against someone -> find "wolfie" things in that person's previous posts. The only other people he mentions in this post are ones he is okay with. So if the only one he voices suspicion of is Brinn, how come he "doesn't know who to vote for"?


EDIT: x-ed since aforementioned post by Mac

[Shastanis Althreduin]

It occurs to me that by hijacking Greenie's post I failed to give a read on Greenie herself - there were things I liked (the Brinniel read) and things I didn't (the Rune/Kitanna discrepancy, which may be an overblown title but it sounds fancy so I'll probably keep using it; the reads on Ka/Eonwe/Inzil/etc) - she's not a direction I'm interested in going today, at least.

[Loslote]

Right now, I want to vote for G55 or maybe Pitch. Most of my suspicion about Pitch is based on his soft defense/attack/defense (I think that's the right order) of G55, so I think lynching either one would help me better understand the other. I would be willing to vote for Brinn if it came down to her or someone I have a really good feeling about. I will not be voting for Rikae or Lhuna.

[Brinniel]

Just reread Kitanna's posts again; there's only four and it was the last two that have me concerned. She tries really hard to build a case on the Pitch/Legate/G55 trio and that what I found fishy.

And as for the suspicions against me? As I said I'm not too worried about general wariness, as we all do suspect one another at some point. However since I know I'm innocent, I will be watchful anyone who is trying to build on a case against me. :rolleyes:

I would lean towards voting Kit, but seeing that my name is in the tally, I shall wait in case there's the need to save myself.

[Pitchwife]

You know what, just because I can hang around till DL doesn't mean I have to wait.

++Brinniel


Picked suspects from Rikae's shortlist, then backed off when attention turned away from the LPG triangle, and when she got suspected for this she tried to shift the suspicion to Kitanna, who had been more or less in the same camp.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

This is a fair point. I've done that as a wolf in past games - that is, ignored other people's suspicions of myself in order not to draw any more attention to them.

I'm not sure I can stay awake until DL but Mac's post just made me rethink everything to the extent that my brain hurts. I still think Brinn looks sketchy, and I agree with Mac's points about her, but at the same time Mac's post about her makes me really uneasy. (Flip-flopping? Goes in the family, I'm afraid.) He literally starts with "I don't know who to vote for", then makes a reasonable argument against Brinn (quoted above), then quotes another bit from Brinn saying he wished he had noticed this earlier as her wording is "wolfie". This is literally like a wolf thought process written out in one post. I need someone to suspect -> come up with an argument against someone -> find "wolfie" things in that person's previous posts. The only other people he mentions in this post are ones he is okay with. So if the only one he voices suspicion of is Brinn, how come he "doesn't know who to vote for"?


EDIT: x-ed since aforementioned post by Mac

Bother. I like this post and wish I didn't... kinda. There's several people pushing Brinniel as a vote today - this is the first semi-push-back that I've seen, and given Greenie "still thinks Brinn looks sketchy" it adds another layer of pigeonhole-scenario I'm unwilling to lock myself into but will consider later depending on what we learn.

[Loslote]

I'm not sure I can stay awake until DL but Mac's post just made me rethink everything to the extent that my brain hurts. I still think Brinn looks sketchy, and I agree with Mac's points about her, but at the same time Mac's post about her makes me really uneasy. (Flip-flopping? Goes in the family, I'm afraid.) He literally starts with "I don't know who to vote for", then makes a reasonable argument against Brinn (quoted above), then quotes another bit from Brinn saying he wished he had noticed this earlier as her wording is "wolfie". This is literally like a wolf thought process written out in one post. I need someone to suspect -> come up with an argument against someone -> find "wolfie" things in that person's previous posts. The only other people he mentions in this post are ones he is okay with. So if the only one he voices suspicion of is Brinn, how come he "doesn't know who to vote for"?

This is a good point. I didn't have a sketchy read on him earlier, but I see what you mean about the wolf thought process. Something to keep in mind, especially if we find out Brinn's role.

xed with Shasta

[Kath]

The one thing I was most certain of agreeing with today was Pitch's comment that there was a difference in that LGP group between Legate's "enthusiasm" in jumping on G55's question to stir conversation. If I'm reading correctly now. Did Pitch sort of back away from suspecting G55, to defending G55, and back track again? I'm going back through those interactions, because if true, that does ping more to my fight senses than anything else today.
A difference between Legate's enthusiasm and what? Not quite sure what you're trying to say there.


Votes as I go:
Lhuna --> Lhuna - I mean, what is there to say really? It's a thing. I'm ok with being a thing toDay, but not anything past that.

Rikae --> Brinn - seems to be largely down to the wanting to avoid a trap comment. Other people have mentioned wanting to steer clear of the Legate-Pitch-G55 triangle, but even that seems to have died down as the Day has gone on and more people have appeared. Perhaps it's the 'avoid a trap' wording rather than the sentiment itself?

G55 --> Rikae - quite a big fight seems to have blown up between these two. I looked at post 69 and couldn't really see anything in it. Yes, Rikae somewhat exaggerated events but it was early in the Day and to me read as typical banter. I don't think there was this element of deliberate misrepresentation that G55 feels is going on. I don't know if G55 has played with Rikae before and it's an unfamiliarity with playing style thing, or a great way for a wolf-G55 to have a pretty logical reason to vote an innocent-Rikae.

It's not a WW game without me and Rikae getting into a flame war, isn't it?
Ah, well that puts paid to that idea!

Seriously, can someone tell me how I quote within quote. Otherwise you're going to keep getting things like this:

#95: Kitanna discusses a Galadriwolf or PitchWolf, but interestingly doesn't suggest a pack. She does seem to suggest G55 and Rikae as a pack with this:

*side eyes both [G55 & Rikae]* Orchestrated wolf action? I suppose not likely, but the more I read of G55 the more I raise my eyebrows.

I think the quote from Kitanna actually says she doesn't think G55 and Rikae are working together, not suggesting they are a pack at all.

The only thing I was wary of was her argument that there is likely to be a wolf in the Pitch-Gal-Legate -trio - as others have pointed out, there's no basis for this really but it would be a very convenient idea for a wolf to advocate.
This is also about Kitanna. Greenie was talking about her lacking consistency, but actually she's been pretty consistent about suspecting G55 across both the major arguments of the Day.

G55 ... earlier in the Day it was felt by some that she'd backed away from the 'fake-votes' in favour of leaving that to Legate, and was garnering a bit of suspicion or at least wary eyes as a result. She then leaps headfirst into a ding dong with Rikae and a few have now mentioned this makes her look innocent. I don't know that I'm going anywhere with this as it feels like it would be way too hard to make that a calculated thing.

Oh and Boro --> Pitch - supposed deliberate flip flopping between Legate and G55.

Urwen --> G55 - 'because I am Morleg and I am spiteful'. That's either a horrible reason for a vote or some reference I'm not understanding. Had Urwen shown any suspicion toward G55 before this? I don't really even recall Urwen posting until now.

Pitch --> Brinn - for using the same suspects as Rikae and then switching to Kitanna when she was suspected for this.

I'm posting this now but no doubt I'll have crossed by the time it gets there!

[satansaloser2005]

Here and trying to catch up.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Here and trying to catch up.

Better than trying to mustard, I suppose.

[satansaloser2005]

Quickly for Kath.

[QUOTE ]Original post here.[QUOTE ]Posting OP is quoting here.[/QUOTE ][/QUOTE ]


x'd with Shasta. Missed you too, babe.

[Huinesoron]

So are we up to six votes on 4 people, with G55 and Brinn having 2 each? I still stand by my Lommy not-vote, but I can't help feeling the Brinn-wagon came up very suddenly. I suspect a deeper analysis will turn up a wolf (or two?) in there, but this close to deadline (and back on my phone) it's not possible.

... and now Pitch has voted for Brinn. So unless it looks like anyone else is voting Lommy, I will - probably in about 15 minutes - vote for Pitch (preferably) or G55 (if necessary), because I'm suspicious of both and don't trust the Brinn-wagon.

(Kath, re Urwen: she and G55 had a falling out in the Password game lately, so that might be why. The Morleg/Maeglin/Maeglin thing is just how Urwen talks. Not to say she can't be leaning into it, though.)

hS

[Macalaure]

He literally starts with "I don't know who to vote for", then makes a reasonable argument against Brinn (quoted above), then quotes another bit from Brinn saying he wished he had noticed this earlier as her wording is "wolfie". This is literally like a wolf thought process written out in one post.

Actually I only noticed it mid-post, wrote my piece about it, and then didn't bother to change the beginning of my post.

[Kath]

Thanks sally! I'll try it out. :)

Urwen - two posts. One: checking in and some odd RP thing about Maeglin. Two: voting for G55 'because I am Morleg and I am spiteful'.

Seriously, am I not getting something here?

[Kitanna]

I'm not going to lie, I cannot keep up today. I've been skimming, but in depth analysis is simply not going to happen before DL. Well at least not every post since my last one. Instead, I wanted to use the time I have to focus on people who seem to be popping up all over the place. This includes Brinn who didn't seem like she said much, but certainly was talked about a lot. Rikae and G55 because what was going on there? I'm going to start here hopefully move on to more. Fingers crossed I get something productive done before DL.

Brinn didn't say much in her first post. And really what stood out more was a joke post about her later "don't trust Greeks bearing gifts that G55 said. Which was just a joke post.
The only thing of even remote substance from Brinn's first post is
No, no, no, no, and no. The fact that this was ever brought up in a previous game seems insane! While there is always a risk of lynching an innocent, the Day is best shot at getting a wolf. If we don't lynch anyone they likely have one up on us by the following Day.
In response to G55's "cue discussion about a no-vote Day1!" comment. She comments seriously on something I read as another joke from G55. Nothing really nefarious to my eyes here.
Her next post is responding to a quarantine joke/banter post from Boro. In the same post she goes on about how planning just makes potential fodder for the next day.


Then again, again, when has anything gone according to plan? We plan, and plan, and plan. Then 30 minutes before we're forced to decide we start a new plan and all hell breaks loose.
True, true. Things never do seem to go according to plan around here. And then the ones who don't follow the plan become lynch fodder the next Day and more often than not turn out to be innocent.
Again, nothing really here. Maybe a wolf playing it safe and just sort of nodding and saying "yes, yes, this is true" while blowing smoke rings from her pipe. But really, after two posts, this doesn't scream "baddie."
Her next post is more of the same, agreeing with Mac on the discussion of deadline before deadline for a fake vote. And a question about quarantine.
The next post has more substance as far as establishing a trail of activity and not more "yes, yes, quite indeed" comments in response to others.
On Legate's post's about the fake votes...
Is it suspicious? Perhaps, but not necessarily. If he's evil, he's being rather bold, and if he's innocent, a wolf could use his posts to build a case against him. Then again, there could be no wolves involved and they are just quietly letting this play out.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I do believe there's only five remaining players who have not yet posted - which means odds are that there's at least 2-3 baddies hiding among the current posts. The problem I have with Day 1 is that without a track record from a previous Day, I tend see more people as innocent than guilty. Which I guess makes sense; after all, most of us are in fact innocent.

So, let's try this backwards...

So far I find Lommy to be the most genuine. She's only posted a few times early on, however, I do find her to be sensible and am agreeing with what she has to say.

THE Ka also seems level-headed to me and I'm leaning towards innocentish.

As for the other side of the scale, it's still too early for me to feel any strong suspicions, but based on hunch and posts I've seen, I am slightly more wary of: Inzil, Pitchwife, G55

Now time for sleep...it is far too late!
She sets up a scenario of a bold wolfLegate but also an innocent Legate having a case built against him. Reasonable, but she doesn't mention G55 or Pitch in this, which were the two most actively engaging about the fake vote. Legate didn't suggest the idea, though he ran with it, and I find it interesting Brinn didn't take into account the other major players when the drama first unfolded.
The next post is a mention of past experience, which eh. Nothing much there.

I think this next posts is where people started to question Brinn more.


This is what I mean. I can feel a race between Pitch, G55, and Legate coming up, while the wolves are snickering in the background.

I'm not even saying that there isn't a wolf among them - it's possible - but I don't like the way this is gaining momentum.
I agree with this. I'm still a bit wary of G55 and Pitchwife (less so of the former), however I don't want to get caught in a trap. I think I will stay clear of this potential mess for toDay and focus elsewhere.
In her post about Legate she didn't mention anyone else by name in regards to the fake vote. Here she says still wary of G55 and Pitch which unless I missed something, she hadn't actually mentioned them at all prior. Not long after this Rikae says she would likely vote for Brinn if DL was right then.


Between the three of you that have been brought up, I found Pitchwife's posts to be most suspicious. However, I'm second-guessing myself because I'm starting to think he may just be easy cannon fodder for the wolves. I don't find Legate suspicious and reading your posts today, I'm less wary of you.

I honestly do not have time for full summary posts because I do actually have to work as I mentioned before. If I were to pick someone right now, I would say Inzil. I can't quite put my fingers on it, but I'd say it's mostly because he's one of the most frequent posters, yet I find him providing less of substance and just going with the flow. Easy way for a wolf to hide.

If I do have time I may take a look at those building a case against Pitchwife.
This looks suspicious to me. She never once mentioned Inzil and now he's her top suspect. But this all reads too clumsy for Brinn, to obviously trying to look guilty, almost. I'd say she's more likely a cobbler than a wolf at this point in the postings.
Rikae votes for Brinn some posts later.
Okay, took a quick look back at some posts. Regarding the whole Legate/G55/Pitchwife bit, I find Kitanna's reactions most suspicious. She seems quick to point out that there is likely a wolf among the group.
Despite the fact she also ran with these suspicious and focused in on Legate, pot have you met my good friend, kettle?
Next post she's unconcerned with suspicions coming her way. Though she does view Rikae and G55's back and forth as likely two innocents than anything else.
Pitch also votes for Brinn
But Brinn hasn't been back. If she's a wolf, then she is a bold one indeed who is trying to pull off a gamble with her erratic posting/suspicions. I think if she's not just plain innocent, she's the cobbler. She doesn't cast herself in a good light and she does seem pressed for time, but as I said earlier in this post, she reads more clumsy than wolf. Brinn knows she's short on time based on her quotes that she does have work. So wolfBrinn could easily just float under the radar. Plenty of other people were making noise when she started to say things that were off. Honestly, Pitch looks more guilty to be for his vote than Brinn.

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

I am a bit torn here.

My original suspects/bad vibe folks were Kitanna and Eonwe, but I haven't really found anything to add to my original suspicions.

I must acknowledge that decent case can be made against Brinniel, though she did not at first register on my radar.

She mentions a group of vague suspect, but gives us nothing concrete. Thus giving her self room to maneuver. Initially she sticks to some of her suspects, again she doesn't give us too much to go on, and then she throws Kitanna into the mix.

On top of this she seemingly tried to downplay suspicions by simply not addressing them, something wolves have tried in the past.

Posts:#70 #158 #168.

I mean this definitely look like an infected trying to avoid scrutiny, backtracking when she fears her strategy is found out, and attempts to ignore the direct accusations hoping they will go away.

Despite all of this, I am not convinced that it isn't just innocent Brinniel who wants to be helpful, but is vague as she does not want to "fabricate" evidence and then gets swayed buy what she perceives as good arguments/unfortunate developments.

[Inziladun]

I recall getting good vibes from reading what Legate had to say last night, in terms of me agreeing with him. Not sure about the framing aspect, I probably need context for that.

"Last night"? Am I missing something?

I see Urwen has jumped in out of nowhere to vote for G55. Would a wolf really be so careless?

x/d with last four

[Nogrod]

Same with the stuff showing...
Quickly for Kath.

Original post here.Posting OP is quoting here.


x'd with Shasta. Missed you too, babe.

[Loslote]

... and now Pitch has voted for Brinn. So unless it looks like anyone else is voting Lommy, I will - probably in about 15 minutes - vote for Pitch (preferably) or G55 (if necessary), because I'm suspicious of both and don't trust the Brinn-wagon.

I would much rather vote for G55 or Pitch over Brinn. Let's try not to split the vote between them, though - I suspect they are both wolves, so I don't especially mind which one gets lynched, as I think either one will tell us a lot about the other.

[Pitchwife]

Shasta re Eönwë/Greenie being Agreeable : That was supposed to be the beginning of a list of people I haven't been able to get an idea of yet (and yes, Greenie is in that category too, as is Zil, and Lhuna, and Lommy and Lalaith and I'm sure a few others), but there was too much going on to catch up on so I gave up and just put that out there.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Remark on the beginning:
It's Day 1, so people are bound to throw suspicion in the wrong direction, so no I'm not worried if some people are wary of me.
Someone mentioned that a Wolf wouldn't say this... in my experience, quite the contrary.

You sure are going for the last hour vote.
And what did you think, O sweet summer child? ;)

Anyways... here goes my final list for the Day, categories reflecting overall impressions for the Day as of this moment:

Red Zone

Kitanna - I have listed it above. Upon re-read, I sense the danger of having focussed too much on it to the point of solidifying my suspicion for myself, but the points stand.

Eönwë - behaves reasonably to the point of it raising my alarm bells. I mean, he tends to be that way, but he actually looks almost too careful, as if deliberately making sure he remains under the radar while looking nice and sensible and active. Him, Greenie and Huinesoron could be (three fifths of) a very well-doing pack of "nice folks". And this is not just a throwaway remark, I will be actually keeping an eye on them.

Greenie - so see above. In her case, "red zone" simply means that I will be keeping an eye on her very, very closely, because no way I am letting a seemingly-innocent Greenwolf running free.

Huinesoron - also see above. I have generally a very good, very "informative" feeling from all the posts, but there is the "just right amount" of measured suspicion-and-distance to make it seem a possibly calculated thing.

Orange Zone

Boro - his lists interlaced sometimes with irrelevant banter and the generic pouring his heart out about why he is not going into confrontation seem a little like Boro, but not entirely. The time gap since the last game may be the reason, but I am still keeping an eye on him.

Lalaith - the few posts from her did not really convince me.

Brinniel - I still don't know. Basically after I voiced some uncertainties about her, she started behaving more, humm hmm, innocentishly. There are people who alarm me more, but still, Brinn behaves a lot like a Brinnwolf would. I guess I might wait to see more posts from her.

Urwen - I would like to see some more posts, please? The vote without reasoning certainly did not help. I don't need a massive essay, but a couple of posts regarding... anything in the village would help.

Lhuna - well, that single vote was... I am leaning to think it does not actually mean anything and it should be ignored. Doesn't like Day 1s, and would have done so whether Wolf or innocent, case closed. Her posting otherwise raised some eyebrows, but not in excessive way. Bears watching. *insert a picture of a grizzly peeking from a bush*

Yellow Zone

Macalaure - ever since he became more involved, I've started feeling better about him. He posts reasonably, question being whether he's just being clever (he would) or whether that's genuine. Currently leaning more towards genuine.

THE Ka - hmmnmn. I find the analyses she posts rather convincing and of course it may be we have a clever Wolf here, but contrary to the three folks in my red zone, I am not getting any vibes of "this looks like a carefully written argument that keeps me out of fire but adds fuel to one of the ongoing fires".

Inziladun - HAS MANAGED TO SLIP UNDER MY RADAR! Which by itself should be enough to send him plummeting right down to red zone. What happened to our Zil? But seriously. I have no read on his behaviour. Creepy. But obviously no reason to suspect him then, either.

Pitchwife - meh. A little pot of chaos, that one is, but I am reserving my judgment until I see more. Most of his toDay's actions got lost in the useless threesome.

Sally - pretty much also under the radar. Leaning good.

Lommy - I seriously can't tell because I am absolutely at loss at some of her thoughts, but the overall impression is - not suspicious.

G55 - I was actually beginning to get suspicious of her but then the whole Rikae argument broke out. If nothing else, it seems 99% likely to me that it is not a Wolf-on-Wolf, or at least not orchestrated beforehand (and I somehow find it unlikely to erupt into such scale if it's not orchestrated). Could be a Cobbler easily.

Loslote - I am not sure, but from the little I can gather, nothing that would scream Wolf, at least.

Green Zone

Kant - I mean, Kath - she is also helpful and "transparent", I would say, and seems genuinely so. I'm ok with her thus far.

Marx - I mean, Rune - is to the point, and I sense no falsehood in his tone. Okay now.

Rikae - I honestly have zero idea about what the entire G55 business was about, but overall I am having no particularly worryworthy vibes from Rikae.

Shasta - is being systematic and feels genuine. So far okay.

Will look at what's going about and then vote, hopefully...

EDIT: x-ed with a whole bunch of posts after Lommy

[Inziladun]

(Kath, re Urwen: she and G55 had a falling out in the Password game lately, so that might be why. The Morleg/Maeglin/Maeglin thing is just how Urwen talks. Not to say she can't be leaning into it, though.)

Ok. Highly unsound, and if that truly was the only reason for the vote, I disapprove.

[Inziladun]

I would much rather vote for G55 or Pitch over Brinn. Let's try not to split the vote between them, though - I suspect they are both wolves, so I don't especially mind which one gets lynched, as I think either one will tell us a lot about the other.

I don't like the feel of the Brinnwagon. I'm always suspicious of sudden bandwagons.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

"Last night"? Am I missing something?

I see Urwen has jumped in out of nowhere to vote for G55. Would a wolf really be so careless?

x/d with last four

It is currently 3:24 PM for me - I played a little bit "last night", 10 or 11 pm or so.

[Loslote]

The more I think about it, the more I like Greenie's post about Mac's suspicion of Brinn. I don't think we have enough time to properly consider it and seriously vote for Mac toDay, but I definitely want to come back to it toMorrow.

[Inziladun]

"Last night"? Am I missing something?

On second thought, maybe Shasta meant "last night" while reading the thread. That jumped out at me, though.

x/d with Shasta and Lottie

[Nogrod]

So are we up to six votes on 4 people, with G55 and Brinn having 2 each?


Day1 - votes
Lhuna -> Lhuna
Rikae -> Brinniel
G55 -> Rikae
Boro -> Pitchwife
Urwen -> G55
Pitchwife -> Brinniel 2

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Shasta re Eönwë/Greenie being Agreeable : That was supposed to be the beginning of a list of people I haven't been able to get an idea of yet (and yes, Greenie is in that category too, as is Zil, and Lhuna, and Lommy and Lalaith and I'm sure a few others), but there was too much going on to catch up on so I gave up and just put that out there.

This isn't not plausible, for the record, but I don't think I buy it wholesale - that wasn't the feeling I got from the comment you made and I'm not sure I agree with Inzil being in that group, either.

Requires more thought.

[Boromir88]

A difference between Legate's enthusiasm and what? Not quite sure what you're trying to say there.


Disagreed with his original take here (Post 37):

OK, Legate, let me ask you: What exactly do we have to gain from the kind of fake vote you're suggesting?
If it is just that, a fake vote with no real lynch as per G55, we've effectively wasted a day, nobody has to fear the consequences of their vote because without a lynch, we won't know whether they voted for an innoent or a wolf, and the wolves can go wolf-on-wolf to their hearts' content witrh no danger to any of them.
If it's just that people announce beforehand whom they are planning to vote, and the vote takes place later, and we compare what people said before to how they actually voted, how is this different from what we usually do?
This strikes me as a pseudo-useful suggestion/discussion. *ping*


Agreed with Pitch's assessment here (Post 98):

Why did I pressure Legate rather than G55 re the fake votes? The difference between

1) G55 throwing out an idea to stir up a discussion, and

2) Legate picking it up and going "Oh yes that's a good idea let's totally do that!", when I thought it was a) not helpful and b) needlessly overcomplicating things. But my last note on him, on his reply to G55 in #44, was 'actually sensible?'

Which I read as "ok, this makes more sense because I agree there is a difference between 1 and 2."

Then goes back and forth on G55 afterwards. His reasons for this flip-flopping were unrelated to Legate. But for (Post 163)

G55 is all over the place, fairly confrontational, sometimes eyebrow-raising (about Urwen/Maeglin: really?). Her all-out attack on Rikae just now does sound a lot like passionate innocent though and makes me feel better about her.
Paradoxically, so does Rikae's response so far.

My read on it came to the conclusion that he was early on trying to play both sides between Legate and G55. Which I can't understand a reason for since post #98 made a lot of sense.

Edit: crossed with everyone since Kath's #213

[Thinlómien]

Kitanna
#36: Mostly banter. Agrees with me that the deadline hours will be chaotic, but seems to find the idea fun. Disagrees with me, saying that it's quite possible for someone to get suspected/lynched based on early Day1 banter.
#85: Says either Legate's fake vote plan, or Pitch suspecting Legate, could be "innocent villagers stirring up conversation to draw out baddies. Or it could be baddies trying to draw in innocents to pin as guilty later." Ehhhhhhhh?? Mildly suspects Lhuna for underlining her own unhelpfulness. Discusses the merits of lists with Legate. Gets really worked up about the lists and fake votes to a degree that I find confusing while I'm quickly trying to summarise her posts here. Says fake voting would benefit wolves because it easily incriminates innocents who are trying their best? Draws attention to Shasta's self-ironic "That's probably enough content to make it look like I'm participating."
#95: Wonders if Rikae/Gal is orchestrated wolf-on-wolf, more suspicious G than R. Analyses the fake vote discussion, bringing up G55, Legate and Pitch as the key players, and seems to think their order of suspiciousness is Pitch > Gal > Legate.
#104: Suspects Boro because of his flip-flopping about lists and appearing deeper than he is. Mildly defends Legate against Mac's accusation, but does a legate180 because Legate's post #88 strikes her as fish, mostly tone-wise.

Conclusion: Now that I've read her posts, I feel better about Kitanna. I disagree with her conclusions a lot, but her thought processes seem like an innocent person figuring things out.


*

Rune

#84: Mostly disclaimers/banter about the game, most important quote is this: "For now let me just say that I am pro anything that leaves more data for us to analyse, so in principle I am not against making preliminary votes a thing. As long as we don't take a dogmatic approach that would leave the system open for wolfish exploitation (but that goes for pretty much everything)." Which sounds a little weird to me, like how would the wolves exploit the fake votes?
#94: Agrees with Hui about stating voting preferences early and that the voting environment will change just before dl. Okay, elaborates on the thing I just found weird by saying that we shouldn't get too fixated on the idea of everyone pre-voting and then punish those who deviate. Fair enough, agreed.
#117: Most worried about G55 who gives him both good and bad vibes. Says he always suspects Eönwë and Lottie, and never suspects Lhuna. Thinks Legate and Pitchwife are reasonable and therefore innocent.
#134: Suspects Eönwë for flipflopping on Legate and Kitanna for the opportunistic jump on Lhuna's post. About the village in general: "For now let me just say that I am pro anything that leaves more data for us to analyse, so in principle I am not against making preliminary votes a thing. As long as we don't take a dogmatic approach that would leave the system open for wolfish exploitation (but that goes for pretty much everything)."
#140: Defends Lhuna bc of her having a history of suicidal tendencies. Thinks Urwen made a cobbler hint.
#157: Doesn't entirely buy G55 discrediting his Urwen/cobbler theory.
#179: Asks Lottie about her reasoning for suspecting Brinn because doesn't suspect her himself.
#186: Continues on the topic, correcting Lottie about Brinn's suspicions. I'm too busy to check which one of them has the facts right, but I doubt either of them is lying about this on purpose.

Conclusion: Guess what? He also looks innocent on a closer look. Nothing really stands out as super shady.

Not sure this was a good use for the second to last 30 minutes of the Day, but at least I know two people I'm not voting for unless something drastic happens.

Will be crossing with everyone since my last!

[Brinniel]

In her post about Legate she didn't mention anyone else by name in regards to the fake vote. Here she says still wary of G55 and Pitch which unless I missed something, she hadn't actually mentioned them at all prior. Not long after this Rikae says she would likely vote for Brinn if DL was right then.
This looks suspicious to me. She never once mentioned Inzil and now he's her top suspect. But this all reads too clumsy for Brinn, to obviously trying to look guilty, almost. I'd say she's more likely a cobbler than a wolf at this point in the postings.
Clearly you did miss something because I mentioned in my post last night that I was wary of Inzil, G55, Pitchwife.
Inzil is on the list because it feels like he's trying to be helpful without providing a lot of substance. After a night's rest and thinking it over, I felt better about G55's posts, especially after the exchange with Rikae. Still suspicious of Pitchwife, but I'm also aware if innocent, he could make good cannon fodder, hence my suspicion of you.

X-Posting with a bunch of posts I'm sure..

[Kath]

I'm struggling, because even though I feel like I talked myself out of it in the previous post, I am still suspicious of G55.

I didn't like early on that she was happy to slide all the 'responsibility' for the fake votes thing over to Legate. You can say he took a joking remark beyond her original intention but as I noted before it was actually her who brought it back up again.

And having backed away, the affray with Rikae is a great way to get involved in something without actually really having anything to say. It's all about what did that word really mean rather than much else. So it seems like she's been involved in a lot but hasn't really.

But what I'm REALLY struggling with is that I'm now following Urwen's vote, which I'm strongly irritated by on principle.

However, I have to vote now as I'm needed elsewhere, so for the reasons above:

++G55

I've crossed with everything since post 221 here.

[A Little Green]

Just quickly -

Actually I only noticed it mid-post, wrote my piece about it, and then didn't bother to change the beginning of my post. This is fair enough (we all notice things mid-post and add them on) but doesn't change the fact that the Brinn-suspicion in that post seems awfully convenient.

I don't know if I agree that opportunism this early makes sense; I also tend to think, based on Greenie's read of the situation, that Rune ought to look just as opportunistic, but doesn't for some reason? Why's that, Greenie?Also a fair point, actually! As far as I can remember, Kitanna suspected Lhuna based on a noncommittal post very early on, a bit more strongly than was indicated by how early in the game it was. Rune pointing out that this looks opportunistic seemed like a valid enough point to me.


EDIT: x-ed since Shasta's #229

[Shastanis Althreduin]

I'm jerking the reins here a bit.

++Pitchwife

[Kitanna]

Probably not going to get to Rikae before I need to vote, so I'm going to look at G55 since I already suspected her.
Aaaaand cue discussion about a no-vote Day 1!
You're a monster for suggesting it. :P
Though this made me think: why didn't the No Lynch debate ever bring up fake votes? Like each person says who they would vote for, but not actually vote. So you have a tally, but no lynch.
Here's the start of the fake vote exchange.
And for the sake of getting these two thoguhts in one place, here's Legate's response.
Hey, THAT is actually a pretty good idea. Because seriously. It would kinda force the Wolves' hands (or tongues). I like that. I mean people can of course flip-flop later, but it isn't easy. I like it. I wholeheartedly second it. Let's do this!
And here's Pitch putting it on Legate
OK, Legate, let me ask you: What exactly do we have to gain from the kind of fake vote you're suggesting?
If it is just that, a fake vote with no real lynch as per G55, we've effectively wasted a day, nobody has to fear the consequences of their vote because without a lynch, we won't know whether they voted for an innoent or a wolf, and the wolves can go wolf-on-wolf to their hearts' content witrh no danger to any of them.
If it's just that people announce beforehand whom they are planning to vote, and the vote takes place later, and we compare what people said before to how they actually voted, how is this different from what we usually do?
This strikes me as a pseudo-useful suggestion/discussion. *ping*
In her next post G55 distances herself from her own idea.
Ok, cobbler much? Even I don't like my idea with so much enthusiasm. I was mainly kinda curious if that tack has ever been tried - and why not, cause it's marginally less bad than the No Votes At All camp.
In reading these all back to back without focusing much on other posts, I do find the exchange more bantering initiallty then I did at first. G55 throws an idea out without much gusto. Legate's response reads more excited player latching onto a new idea. Pitch looks to be the one taking it more seriously than the other two. That is until G55 puts distance between herself and the idea.
In fact all of her posts, that I took to be banter, "day 1 no lynch," she comes quick to the defense of. "Come on, guys, I wasn't advocating that." She's trying to get as far away as possible.
Ugh, I'm out of time to do this.
Based on my skimming and intial reactions, my gut says G55 or Pitch. However, I didn't get enough of their later posts to feel super comfortable, not when Rikae had a lot of back and forth with G55. But I need to vote, so
++Pitchwife
Of the three original posters to the fake vote idea, Pitch seemed to be laying bait for the other two. He didn't originate the idea, but he did seem to want to trap Legate into looking guilty. And then his vote for Brinn when she was gaining a lot of trajection and already received one vote.

[Inziladun]

++G55

There's no one else I would want at this point, and it could say a lot about Legate, Pitch, and Rikae.

x/d with Kit

[Loslote]

++Galadriel55

I think this lynch gives us the most information going forward, and I would be very surprised if she turns out to be innocent.

[A Little Green]

++ Macalaure

Maybe flimsy, but that post (#196) where he says he doesn't know who to vote for, lists a few people he feels good about, comes up with a decent argument against Brinniel and finishes with calling an earlier post by her "wolfie", is the single most suspicious thing I've seen toDay.


EDIT: x-ed since my last post, slow down people!!!

[THE Ka]

I see Urwen has jumped in out of nowhere to vote for G55. Would a wolf really be so careless?

I have no clue about that one... probably because I've been absent from the Downs for awhile so I don't know everyone's in-jokes besides those I've known for years. Far as I can tell, that's a throw away vote?
A joke to be safe and without anything of substance to refer to I can't tell the m.o. :confused:


As much as I'd love more time to deliberate between my suspicions of those flocking to the G55-Rikae and L-P-G debates, I'm settling with my original suspicions in post #194 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=723374&postcount=194):

++Brinniel

[Rikae]

So, just putting this here because I think this could be important later. This Brinn-wagon everyone's talking about is two votes at this point, mine and Pitch's.

And the people who expressed concern about it are Huey, Lottie and Inzil, in that order (let me know if I missed someone).

Now, I found Pitch suspicious from the beginning, although just for vibes really, and Brinn could have started looking like a convenient vote. On the other hand, three people pushing back on a wagon for coming out of nowhere after two reasoned votes (by day 1 standards) is odd, too, especially if Brinn turns out wolfish or the trolley is redirected toward an innocent. Lottie's and Inzil's positions in the anti-Brinnwagon-wagon are, that is - Huey's is pretty bold.

Edit: X'd with everything since Shasta #233

[Eönwë]

Ok, caught up to #212 now and probably can't hang around time-wise.

The fake vote discussion has mostly focused on G55, Legate, and Pitch. Now we've had people suspecting G55 and Legate, people suspecting Pitch for suspecting Legate, and I think Legate (correct me if I'm wrong) at one point suspecting those who suspected Pitch for suspecting him. For the moment, I'm inclined to believe that Legate and Pitch are innocent. I'm not sure about G55, especially given her recent argument with Rikae, but I'm not convinced it makes her guilty. The reason I'm bringing this whole thing up is not to rehash this, but actually to point out that Zil, Brinn, and Lommy were also around then and lightly interacted with the topic, but as far as I remember without really addressing the fact that suspicions were being flung around (at least until later). I wouldn't be surprised if one of them were a wolf just going with the flow.

I also think there's something interesting going on between Legate, Pitch, and Mac which warrants more observation, but while I feel like someone among them may be suspicious, I really can't tell who it is.

I also agree with those that have said Boro is acting weird, but there will be more time for him to incriminate himself if he is guilty, and he's not suspicious enough for me to vote for him without hearing what he has to say for himself.




As for who I'm going to vote for? Urwen. They have made 2 posts: 1 that doesn't really make sense, and one vote. No discussion or engagement with what is being discussed. This seems like either a wolf who doesn't want to make any comments that could come back to bite them, a cobbler who is just messing with us, or an innocent who is not helping the village and is voting out of spite (as claimed in their most recent vote-post). Based on this:

++ Urwen

[Nogrod]

Day1 - votes

Lhuna -> Lhuna
Rikae -> Brinniel
G55 -> Rikae
Boro -> Pitchwife
Urwen -> G55
Pitchwife -> Brinniel 2
Kath -> G55 2
Shasta -> Pitchwife 2
Kitanna -> Pitchwife 3
Inzil -> G55 3
Lottie -> G55 4
Greenie -> Macalaure
THE Ka -> Brinniel 3
Eönwë -> Urwen


8 votes (possibly) to come.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

I'm not incredibly comfortable with Greenie's or Eonwe's votes here.

[Thinlómien]

Ummm, I think we should collectively start turning up earlier before the DL because there's so many of us :eek::D

Greenie has a solid point on Mac.

Brinn's read on Kit is very different from mine. Interesting. While Kit's reading of Brinn is weird too - it's like a brinnwolf couldn't be a little clumsy (anyone can!), or innocent!Brinn couldn't be a little wishywashy. I very much don't think Brinn is the cobbler!

I would much rather vote for G55 or Pitch over Brinn. Let's try not to split the vote between them, though - I suspect they are both wolves, so I don't especially mind which one gets lynched, as I think either one will tell us a lot about the other. Quite a bold statement for Day1 and pretty much out of nowhere??

Of the currently voted people, I would prefer not to lynch Lhuna or Rikae. Maybe not Pitch either.

[Loslote]

Quite a bold statement for Day1 and pretty much out of nowhere??

I've said that I think they're a wolf pair a couple of times now.