Tol-in-Gaurhoth CXIV – The Evil Breath of Morgoth in Dor-lómin, game thread [Archive] - Page 4

Macalaure

05-09-2020, 02:18 PM

On Day 1, he starts goofing around and then jumps straight into lists, none of which seem particularly useful, I hate to say. I noticed that he was very quick to explain himself to Huin at the mildest criticism.

What you must ask though is not "would a wolf stick their head out that early?" but would a Legate-wolf do it? With a pack of 5 there's higher incentive to start out bolder.
In the larger group of "under the radars" there are most assuredly wolves. Larger group, easier to stay on the outskirts. A Day 1 vote for a player in this group is low risk, but low reward. Because a lot of the "under the radar" Day 1 behavior is also a sign of ordo villagers who don't have much to say, due to a lack of Day 1 information. And they are forced to wait for information to go on.

Then there's a smaller group of "loud/active" players, and the "under the radars" need this group to stir conversation/discussion. A day 1 "shot in the dark" vote for someone in the smaller group is higher risk, but also higher reward. It's a smaller group so better percentage the shot hits a wolf. Higher risk though because that shot could also inadvertently hit a gifted.
He makes a shockingly negligible amount of sense here. :confused:

In #169 he tallies up fake votes (cue rolleyes), responds to Lommy calling him weird, and chimes in on the LPG thing, which was the talk of the Day anyway. He ends up voting for Pitchwife after contributing next to no substance for a whole Day. However, when prodded by Kath he is able to provide some insight into his thinking.

Agrees with Inzil on Eonwe's throwaway vote. In his vote analysis he pretty much ignores all votes not for Gala. I feel like we don't know enough roles yet to tell whether this was conveniently done or because he can only follow so many strings at a time. We all do that, so I don't want to outright suspect him for admitting to it. Huin, however, did vote for Gala, and this bit here is interesting:

(Rikae also in their final post to us pointed out the growing "let's not start a wagon against Brinn sentiments - pointing to Huey, Inzil and Lottie). If Brinn's innocent, Inzil and Lottie's vote still look suspicious

Pointing to Huin, but no, not really.

He declares Brinn his main suspect, because she fell into Rikae's trap and he explains it at length in #363. He responds to Huin's criticism with a one-liner, though a sensible one to be fair. In #436 he defends himself quite defensively at people criticizing his focus on one group. I still get what he's saying, but still, depending on roles, this might have been very convenient. I think this is a very interesting thing to keep in mind as more roles are revealed.

When Huin came up as a possible lynch, before him getting a vote, he says it might be too late to start considering him. Instead he analyzes Lhuna, finds her suspicious, but shows no intention of actually voting for her. He lets time pass as the deadline nears.

Of those who currently have votes. I do not want to vote Lommy, Inzil or Huey.

I've said nothing about Mac, because everyone else has said quite a lot. He looks the suspicious and paranoid part and then he doesn't. His vote for Lommy doesn't feel right, but could be from I just don't find Lommy suspicious.
This has a feel of willingness to lynch while keeping his hands clean. One the one hand, on the other. I didn't say anything, but others have. Yuck.

He's been pushing for Brinniel, if you can call that pushing. He seems rather relaxed to drop that in light of the QT vote, and now is happy to go with the flow. Afterwards says that Brinniel moving on to other things and me insisting on the frame-stuff affected his decision. Meh, fair enough, I suppose, except his suspicion on Brinn was solely based on Rikae's trap on Day1, as far as I can see, so I'm not sure this goes together 100%.

Votes fairly late. If he already made up his mind to vote for me and not Huin, why the wait?

ToDay, his analysis of Huin is sadly sparse in actual conclusions. He does find it unlikely that me and Huin are both wolves. So, go me? There's not much else to say for the whole day. He talks a lot, but instead of being rock-solid, his points all feel like silly putty.

Boro feels off. The thing that gives me pause is, when prodded, he actually gives very solid reasons. What he said in response to Kath regarding the LPG, the thought process with Rikae's trap, all that is solid.

There's some suspicious connection with Huin, but not a strong one. Might just be the normal amount that any innocent randomly accumulates over time. I don't want to be "paranoid"...

He's not putting me at ease at all, though. He's definitely in my list of suspects, just not at the top at this point. There are heads more ready for rolling. I feel with him, as we get hopefully more valuable info over the next Day or so, things will clear up with him. Then he can either have my axe, or my axe in the back. :p

I missed a whole bunch of posts thinking and writing this out. Catching up now.

satansaloser2005

05-09-2020, 02:19 PM

Will try not to (and I got you earlier).

Right now I'd prefer Lottie or maybe Eönwë, but I can get behind Brinn if need be.

I knew you did, but here we are. :p

++Lottie

Equal parts suspicion and self-preservation.

Pitchwife

05-09-2020, 02:19 PM

Been wondering whether that remark before was just a remark or how hard you'd go on that. Okay. Now how do we deal with this situation, huh? Well, who are you hunting, or who do you claim you are hunting? Might help to take into account?
+1

Out of curiosity, which ones?
Eönwë and to a lesser degree Greenie. Not sure about the others.

Shastanis Althreduin

05-09-2020, 02:22 PM

I'm looking through Lottie's posts of toDay and just read this:

So Zil explains why he didn't want to vote Hui because he mistrusted Lottie and me, and Lottie all but goes up in flames saying "How dare you still suspect us when we lynched a wolf?" When he actually hadn't said anything about whether he still suspected us or not. Then follows it up with this:

Now this kind of self-gratulation irks me. If you help lynch a wolf and people think you look good for it, you gratefully accept that, but you don't use your vote to exonerate yourself and say you look good for it, because that makes it seem that the vote was, well, calculated to be used this way.

Eh. People are allowed to be like "hey I did a good job, go me" and pat themselves on the back sometimes.

Thinlómien

05-09-2020, 02:23 PM

Are you guys really buying Sally's claim?

I absolutely don't. It's a very convenient wolf ploy, given that it will either 1) drag out the real hunter so the wolves don't need to worry about targeting them by accident, 2) go uncontested because I think an actual hunter would consider twice before revealing because it effectively makes their gift useless.

If Sally was the real hunter and thought she's gonna get lynched, wouldn't she let us do it and gun for whoever she thinks is the most suspicious, then let us analyse the bandwagon against known innocent her the Day after? We're not yet at a point where we can't afford lynching an innocent. I'm aware it's a question of playing style and how many risks you want to take, but if I was in Sally's position and the hunter I would never ever reveal.

Yeah, not buying it.

ezit: xed with everyone on this page

Shastanis Althreduin

05-09-2020, 02:24 PM

Wolves like confusing the village just as much as cobblers do.

Sure, but not in ways that will get them immediately suspected. Wolves play safer than Cobblers do, on the whole, because it's more important for them to stay alive.

Shastanis Althreduin

05-09-2020, 02:25 PM

satansaloser2005

05-09-2020, 02:26 PM

Oh, did she finally claim it? I know she was softing it earlier. Didn't buy it then, don't buy it now. (Sorry, Sally, but this is way too shades-of-G55 for me.)

Cobbler child stole my actual role thunder.

Boromir88

05-09-2020, 02:27 PM

Great. Just what I need.

At least there's more time to look at this one than the 45 seconds G55 gave.

Pitchwife

05-09-2020, 02:27 PM

If sally had already sent in a pick but has second thoughts about it, then it would make sense for her not to want to be lynched. As I took it she seemed to indicate with her earlier '...depending on how my suspicions play out'.

Loslote

05-09-2020, 02:27 PM

I'm looking through Lottie's posts of toDay and just read this:

So Zil explains why he didn't want to vote Hui because he mistrusted Lottie and me, and Lottie all but goes up in flames saying "How dare you still suspect us when we lynched a wolf?" When he actually hadn't said anything about whether he still suspected us or not. Then follows it up with this:

Now this kind of self-gratulation irks me. If you help lynch a wolf and people think you look good for it, you gratefully accept that, but you don't use your vote to exonerate yourself and say you look good for it, because that makes it seem that the vote was, well, calculated to be used this way.

Was I supposed to pretend it didn't happen? It's not like I said "okay, guys, I'm confirmed!!!".

I see Sally claims Hunter. I'd be happy to vote for Zil or Boro instead, looks like Zil is the more likely option right now, so I'll probably go that direction.

Thinlómien

05-09-2020, 02:27 PM

Shastanis Althreduin

05-09-2020, 02:28 PM

I don't believe Sally, but equally - we shouldn't lynch her. If she's real, we force the wolves to kill her; if she's fake, the real Hunter hunts her. Easy enough.

Loslote

05-09-2020, 02:29 PM

On the other hand, if I'm her current pick, I would really rather not lynch her, please and thank you.

Thinlómien

05-09-2020, 02:30 PM

Legate of Amon Lanc

05-09-2020, 02:30 PM

If Sally was the real hunter and thought she's gonna get lynched, wouldn't she let us do it and gun for whoever she thinks is the most suspicious, then let us analyse the bandwagon against known innocent her the Day after? We're not yet at a point where we can't afford lynching an innocent. I'm aware it's a question of playing style and how many risks you want to take, but if I was in Sally's position and the hunter I would never ever reveal.

This is why I asked her to tell us who she's Hunting.

Originally Posted by Pitchwife
Will try not to (and I got you earlier).

Right now I'd prefer Lottie or maybe Eönwë, but I can get behind Brinn if need be.I knew you did, but here we are. :p

Sorry, from where did you "know" he did? Couldn't find any way of him talking about it after that "Very Bad Idea" mention, at least.

Shastanis Althreduin

05-09-2020, 02:30 PM

I'm playing from my phone - someone remind me, who besides Sally (and me) votes for Mac yesterday?

Rune Son of Bjarne

05-09-2020, 02:31 PM

Am I right to say that the suspicions directed towards Inzil mainly has to do with vote placement, and his role in the whole “don’t mention the ranger’ saga?

And Sally are suspected for not acting like innocent Sally + vote placement, and i guess we can add claiming to be giftet to the list (after first heavily implying it).

I haven't got time to go through all posts again, so please let me know if I missed any of the main points.

Pitchwife

05-09-2020, 02:32 PM

I'm playing from my phone - someone remind me, who besides Sally (and me) votes for Mac yesterday?
Lommy, Greenie, Hui, Zil, Boro

Boromir88

05-09-2020, 02:33 PM

I'm playing from my phone - someone remind me, who besides Sally (and me) votes for Mac yesterday?

I believe this is the correct order...

Lommy
Greenie
Huey
sally
Inzil
Me
Shasta

Edit: there was a bunch of cross voting in there after Huey's vote

Brinniel

05-09-2020, 02:33 PM

If Sally was the real hunter and thought she's gonna get lynched, wouldn't she let us do it and gun for whoever she thinks is the most suspicious, then let us analyse the bandwagon against known innocent her the Day after? We're not yet at a point where we can't afford lynching an innocent. I'm aware it's a question of playing style and how many risks you want to take, but if I was in Sally's position and the hunter I would never ever reveal.

Yeah, not buying it.
I've been pondering over this too. I just don't understand why a hunter would reveal because the point of their existence is to die and hopefully take a wolf down with them. Of course it's preferable at Night, but if she is the hunter, now they'll probably never Night kill her. And while I understand the concern about taking out another innocent, I would think Hunter Sally more likely to take that risk.

X-ing with a bunch of posts I see.

Loslote

05-09-2020, 02:34 PM

And I really don't like that Sally didn't tell us who her pick would be. If you ARE the Hunter, give us all the information so we can make an informed decision!

Legate of Amon Lanc

05-09-2020, 02:35 PM

Rune Son of Bjarne

05-09-2020, 02:35 PM

I mean, even if Sally is indeed the hunter, don't we want to give her a shot?

Think about it. If I'm right and she's bluffing, we win.

If I'm wrong and she's indeed the hunter, well, then I would trust her to have a faily high chance to take a wolf with her, which is also a pretty good outcome.

(Yeah, I know in the worst case we could lose two innocents but hey, that's the game. If Sally is the hunter let her do her job. I trust her to pick wisely.)

edit: xed with everyone

I don't like high-stake games.

I don't believe Sally, but equally - we shouldn't lynch her. If she's real, we force the wolves to kill her; if she's fake, the real Hunter hunts her. Easy enough.

I said the exact same about Kit yesterday.

I won't be voting Sally today.

Brinniel

05-09-2020, 02:36 PM

And I really don't like that Sally didn't tell us who her pick would be. If you ARE the Hunter, give us all the information so we can make an informed decision!
Yes, this. She voted Lottie, but that doesn't necessarily equal hunter pick.

Legate of Amon Lanc

05-09-2020, 02:36 PM

And I really don't like that Sally didn't tell us who her pick would be. If you ARE the Hunter, give us all the information so we can make an informed decision!

Exactly, seconding this. SALLY!!! Tell us now (now that you have revealed your supposed role anyway) and we can make an informed decision based on this.

The sooner the better. The sooner the better. The sooner the better.

Any minute you spend with it means you are spending time making it up.

Pitchwife

05-09-2020, 02:36 PM

Boromir88

05-09-2020, 02:37 PM

I don't believe Sally, but equally - we shouldn't lynch her. If she's real, we force the wolves to kill her; if she's fake, the real Hunter hunts her. Easy enough.

Concur.

Thinlómien

05-09-2020, 02:38 PM

I don't believe Sally, but equally - we shouldn't lynch her. If she's real, we force the wolves to kill her; if she's fake, the real Hunter hunts her. Easy enough.I disagree. We can't delegate Sally to the "real hunter" if she's a wolf, it's all too much possible the real hunter will make it to the endgame without getting killed. And I very much doubt the wolves would Night kill Sally now - hunters often become long lived known innocents because the wolves don't dare to kill them. In this case, it wouldn't be very beneficial for us because many of us would still not trust her, and the wolves might also like to frame her that way if she's indeed the hunter. Again, I would rather have the hunter have their shot than have them as a known innocent. And given that I don't trust Sally's reveal one bit and I would rather not drag this out in a way that forces the real hunter to come out and waste their gift that way, I would really just rather lynch her. Either she's a wolf like I very much think, or else there's the silver lining that she can still kill a wolf for us. I don't want Sally to stick around as a "known innocent" because she simply isn't credible enough to be one, even if she actually is the actual hunter.

edit: xed with everyone

Legate of Amon Lanc

05-09-2020, 02:39 PM

I don't believe Sally, but equally - we shouldn't lynch her. If she's real, we force the wolves to kill her; if she's fake, the real Hunter hunts her. Easy enough.

Except the Wolves may not kill her. Which, if she's real innocent, may be just as well, but it would still leave "what if" cloud hanging over the village.

EDIT: x-ed since my last. Heh.

Loslote

05-09-2020, 02:39 PM

I don't believe Sally, but equally - we shouldn't lynch her. If she's real, we force the wolves to kill her; if she's fake, the real Hunter hunts her. Easy enough.

It's too close to the deadline and we have no idea who her pick would be anyway. I'm not voting for Sally.

Lalaith

05-09-2020, 02:40 PM

Mac
He makes a shockingly negligible amount of sense here.
Yep, this was what I highlighted about Boro earlier. I don't mind a wacky Boro but a waffly one worries me.
Like Legate I want Sally to tell us who she is hunting.
So much unanimity on Sally is a bit unsettling.
So I would rather go Eonwe (from the dodgy behaviour stated in my earlier post) or Boro toDay. Brinn would be acceptable (Second time taunt from QT - really?)
I am still not completely happy with Legate but because of his Huivote I feel a bit better and won't vote for him toDay.

Thinlómien

05-09-2020, 02:41 PM

Okay yes good point about the hunter pick.

Who are you "hunting" Sally?

Rune Son of Bjarne

05-09-2020, 02:41 PM

I disagree. We can't delegate Sally to the "real hunter" if she's a wolf, it's all too much possible the real hunter will make it to the endgame without getting killed. And I very much doubt the wolves would Night kill Sally now - hunters often become long lived known innocents because the wolves don't dare to kill them. In this case, it wouldn't be very beneficial for us because many of us would still not trust her, and the wolves might also like to frame her that way if she's indeed the hunter. Again, I would rather have the hunter have their shot than have them as a known innocent. And given that I don't trust Sally's reveal one bit and I would rather not drag this out in a way that forces the real hunter to come out and waste their gift that way, I would really just rather lynch her. Either she's a wolf like I very much think, or else there's the silver lining that she can still kill a wolf for us. I don't want Sally to stick around as a "known innocent" because she simply isn't credible enough to be one, even if she actually is the actual hunter.

edit: xed with everyone

I don't think I have ever seen anything make as little sense as this post.

Very weird.

Loslote

05-09-2020, 02:41 PM

Alright, alternatives. There are 10 votes left to be cast. I'd rather vote for Zil or Boro, where does everyone else stand?

Boromir88

05-09-2020, 02:42 PM

Alright, alternatives. There are 10 votes left to be cast. I'd rather vote for Zil or Boro, where does everyone else stand?

Zil or Lhuna

Macalaure

05-09-2020, 02:43 PM

Ka, I'm so sorry! :(

If I understand you right, and remember right, I think this is down to me not writing clearly – the “he” in that quote referred to you, not Huin. As in, your suspicion of Huin came after you had already voted for Lommy so you couldn’t act on it whether you’d have wanted to or not. (Please poke me again if that’s wrong too though!)
Gotcha.

I don't get what the quarantined are trying to accomplish with their vote. We know it's still in evil hand. It seems quite unlikely Brinn will be lynched toDay. If this is some attempt at reverse psychology, it's not working.

Are you glad we didn't have to autopsy you to find the answers? If you're upset I still have the butter.

Bring the butter, my body is ready! :p

You know what?
I'm not going to hold out to try to save myself.

This coming before Sally's reveal I find perplexing.

Hey, don't lynch your hunter!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I don't trust this, but it gives me enough pause to hold my vote for a bit.

Pitchwife

05-09-2020, 02:43 PM

Thing is, if we lynch sally and she hits a wolf, we're one wolf down but we also loose an innocent. Whereas if we lynch a wolf instead -

Thinlómien

05-09-2020, 02:43 PM

So much unanimity on Sally is a bit unsettling. Personally I find her so glaringly suspicious that if she's indeed a wolf and we lynch her, I'm not giving anyone a free pass toMorrow for voting her. I doubt all her packmates would try to pooh-pooh away her behaviour which has been eyebrow raising to say the least, starting from the vote yesterDay. *hammering the point for a billionth time*

edit: xed with everyone

Nogrod

05-09-2020, 02:44 PM

Votes

THE Ka -> Sally
QT -> Brinn
Eönwë -> Sally 2
Kath -> Inzil
Greenie -> Sally 3
Lommy -> Sally 4
Inzil -> Brinn 2
Sally -> Lottie

Lalaith

05-09-2020, 02:45 PM

Again, I would rather have the hunter have their shot than have them as a known innocent
Why? I like known innocents personally. Particularly ones the wolves are too scared to kill.

Loslote

05-09-2020, 02:45 PM

The fact that Sally just dropped this and apparently left without saying who her pick is does make me think she's more likely to be a wolf, at least. :rolleyes: Still, really don't want to take the risk that she might be hunting me, since I've been at the top of her list for Days now.

Macalaure

05-09-2020, 02:45 PM

If we want to lynch somebody other than Sally, then who?

Legate of Amon Lanc

05-09-2020, 02:46 PM

I don't think I have ever seen anything make as little sense as this post.

Very weird.

What do you mean? Makes perfect sense.

If Wolves learn about a known Hunter, then every time they have chance to kill them, there's the risk that one of them will be pulled to the grave along. But in numbers, a Hunter is just one innocent. A known innocent for the WWs but not-entirely-known for the village! And the WWs can pick any other victim to kill every Night. They have like over a dozen others to pick from!

If sally doesn't tell us NOW who she's hunting, I may vote her, seriously.

Pitchwife

05-09-2020, 02:46 PM

I don't want to vote Zil precisely because he's offered himself.

Thinlómien

05-09-2020, 02:47 PM

Thing is, if we lynch sally and she hits a wolf, we're one wolf down but we also loose an innocent. Whereas if we lynch a wolf instead -Yeah, but listen. If we lynch anyone else, there's a chance they're just an ordo. With Sally, it's either a wolf or the hunter, who is the innocent losing whom can be a good thing for us. Unlike losing an ordo. Think it through. (I guess if you ignore how suspicious Sally is and that a real hunter would really consider before revealing it boils down to whether you want to take your chances with one extra person dying who might or might not be a wolf.)

edit: again xed, now I will breathe deep and catch up :D

Macalaure

05-09-2020, 02:47 PM

I don't like the idea of a last minute panic bandwaggon.

I don't like the idea of a last minute everybody-votes-everybody chaos.

I don't like any of this!

Lalaith

05-09-2020, 02:48 PM

Salllllly!!!
Tell us!!!

Pitchwife

05-09-2020, 02:48 PM

And if sally hits an innocent we're down to innocents.

Rune Son of Bjarne

05-09-2020, 02:48 PM

I could vote Eonwe, Inzil, Brinn or Lottie without feeling too bad. Though right now I am inclined to have Lottie at the bottom of that list because of her vote (if not for that vote she would probably be at the top).

Brinniel

05-09-2020, 02:48 PM

For me, it's still between Zil and Sally. I would like to know who she's hunting though.

Loslote

05-09-2020, 02:48 PM

Yeah, but listen. If we lynch anyone else, there's a chance they're just an ordo. With Sally, it's either a wolf or the hunter, who is the innocent losing whom can be a good thing for us. Unlike losing an ordo. Think it through. (I guess if you ignore how suspicious Sally is and that a real hunter would really consider before revealing it boils down to whether you want to take your chances with one extra person dying who might or might not be a wolf.)

Unless we lynch the hunter who hunts an ordo, and then we're just down two innocents. And since she's been suspecting me and Pitch, and I know I'm innocent and Pitch is one of the people I trust the most right now, I really don't want to let her just kill one of us.

Boromir88

05-09-2020, 02:49 PM

I don't like the idea of a last minute panic bandwaggon.

I don't like the idea of a last minute everybody-votes-everybody chaos.

I don't like any of this!

Concur.

And panic-wagon caused by the claimed hunter who promptly disappeared.

Legate of Amon Lanc

05-09-2020, 02:50 PM

Just saying that Sally had the RL commitment and whatnot, but she clearly had enough time on her hands after her reveal to still post noncommital posts. And now silence. Nope. I'm voting her.

Lalaith

05-09-2020, 02:50 PM

And panic-wagon caused by the claimed hunter who promptly disappeared.
Exactly.

Loslote

05-09-2020, 02:51 PM

Just saying that Sally had the RL commitment and whatnot, but she clearly had enough time on her hands after her reveal to still post noncommital posts. And now silence. Nope. I'm voting her.

Lowkey really annoyed about this. Sally, I swear, if you are the hunter and you just didn't tell us who you're hunting, gonna be mad.

Rune Son of Bjarne

05-09-2020, 02:51 PM

What do you mean? Makes perfect sense.

If Wolves learn about a known Hunter, then every time they have chance to kill them, there's the risk that one of them will be pulled to the grave along. But in numbers, a Hunter is just one innocent. A known innocent for the WWs but not-entirely-known for the village! And the WWs can pick any other victim to kill every Night. They have like over a dozen others to pick from!

If sally doesn't tell us NOW who she's hunting, I may vote her, seriously.

I guess I don't see this as an actual problem for the village, at least not now (I accept that if a wolf does a counter-reveal in the closing stages of a game it might get messy, but that is it).

I completely agree that Sally has been acting odd with this reveal, but I think we have too much to loose by voting for her.

Shastanis Althreduin

05-09-2020, 02:51 PM

There would come a point where we'd QT Sally as the last possible wolf. But I'm more inclined to think she's a wolf the longer she goes without posting, so I'm more fine with QTing her, I guess. If she answers, it could be a lie anyway.

Thinlómien

05-09-2020, 02:52 PM

Again, I would rather have the hunter have their shot than have them as a known innocent
Why? I like known innocents personally. Particularly ones the wolves are too scared to kill. You personally like known innocents, I personally like dead wolves, and I'm willing to take risks to get them.

If Wolves learn about a known Hunter, then every time they have chance to kill them, there's the risk that one of them will be pulled to the grave along. But in numbers, a Hunter is just one innocent. A known innocent for the WWs but not-entirely-known for the village! And the WWs can pick any other victim to kill every Night. They have like over a dozen others to pick from!Hear, hear. See how some of you were suspecting Kit because she didn't die the second she made a rangerish comment. What do you honestly imagine would happen with Sally?

oh holy :eek::eek::eek: I just looked at clock!!!!

Let's take the Sally chance, no weird last minute things please!!!

edit: xed with a million people again

Macalaure

05-09-2020, 02:52 PM

Unless it's a last-minute bandwaggon against Greenie. That I could live with. :p

My gut feels very strongly against lynching Inzil. Same with Boro, to be honest, to stick with my own list of suspects.

Lhuna perhaps?

Legate of Amon Lanc

05-09-2020, 02:52 PM

And if sally hits an innocent we're down to innocents.

Why would she, though? Why is it any likely that she would hit an innocent? She claims to be a Hunter! She should go after someone whose death would help the village. And if she misses, well, then it's simply as if she would have similarly likely missed had she been killed otherwise too.

Loslote

05-09-2020, 02:53 PM

++Sally

DON'T HUNT ME. I am not a wolf. :mad: :rolleyes:

satansaloser2005

05-09-2020, 02:53 PM

I'm fallible like the rest of you. I'm hunting someone I find suspicious, but I could be wrong. :eek:

Thinlómien

05-09-2020, 02:53 PM

Seriously I think hunter Sally would play smarter than this.

Legate of Amon Lanc

05-09-2020, 02:54 PM

Speaking of Lhuna et al, I "like" how half people haven't appeared at all.

Loslote

05-09-2020, 02:54 PM

I'm fallible like the rest of you. I'm hunting someone I find suspicious, but I could be wrong. :eek:

Yeah, she's a wolf.

Thinlómien

05-09-2020, 02:54 PM

I'm fallible like the rest of you. I'm hunting someone I find suspicious, but I could be wrong. :eek:Geeeez stop trolling!

satansaloser2005

05-09-2020, 02:54 PM

Seriously I think hunter Sally would play smarter than this.

I'd love to, but I'm sick and busy. :(

I still have time to change my pick, so we'll see what happens.

Macalaure

05-09-2020, 02:54 PM

We're still relatively early in the game, so the chances of a hunter picking an innocent is relatively high and worth the risk for the wolves. It's in the end game that a hunter is very powerful.

satansaloser2005

05-09-2020, 02:55 PM

We're still relatively early in the game, so the chances of a hunter picking an innocent is relatively high and worth the risk for the wolves. It's in the end game that a hunter is very powerful.

Exactly my point!

Lalaith

05-09-2020, 02:55 PM

Ok fine. Good luck if you're the Hunter Sally. So long if you're not. I'll miss your insouciance either way.
++ Sally

Legate of Amon Lanc

05-09-2020, 02:56 PM

I'm fallible like the rest of you. I'm hunting someone I find suspicious, but I could be wrong. :eek:

ok no. this nails it. A NAME? NO? THEN DIE AND CURSE IN VAIN

Thinlómien

05-09-2020, 02:56 PM

:rolleyes:

5 minutes guys

Do something!

Legate of Amon Lanc

05-09-2020, 02:56 PM

++sally

Her blood be on us and on our children.

Shastanis Althreduin

05-09-2020, 02:56 PM

++Sally

-shrug emoji-

Macalaure

05-09-2020, 02:57 PM

I'm on the fence, but anybody who actually wants to save Sally goofed it up by not coming up with an alternative in time... :rolleyes:

Legate of Amon Lanc

05-09-2020, 02:57 PM

Topic for the next Day: "Who among those who abstained from voting (or voted when it matters no more) are Wolves, et cetera."

satansaloser2005

05-09-2020, 02:57 PM

I'm on the fence, but anybody who actually wants to save Sally goofed it up by not coming up with an alternative in time... :rolleyes:

Let's just kill Lottie and be safe. ;)

I'm beyond giving a crap. Rude. :p

Loslote

05-09-2020, 02:57 PM

Well, since I only remember you mentioning that you suspect me and Pitch, I would like to remind you that we both voted for Huinwolf at a time when those votes meant he shot up in likelihood of being quarantined. Don't hunt either of us. There are WAY more suspicious people. The fact that you only mentioned us makes me like 90% sure you are a wolf, but if you're really the Hunter and you kill me, I swear, you will be so embarrassed.

Brinniel

05-09-2020, 02:58 PM

++Sally

If she's the hunter, I don't understand why she would not say her pick.

X-ed with a bunch of posts

Rune Son of Bjarne

05-09-2020, 02:58 PM

meh.

++inzil

Boromir88

05-09-2020, 02:58 PM

++Sally

Really don't like the idea of a panic bandwagon against me. If you're the hunter, happy killing.

If you're a wolf, thanks for giving me 500 heart attacks, but I'd consider us even considering the trick I pulled on you previously.

Edit: crossed with pretty much everyone

Macalaure

05-09-2020, 02:58 PM

Guess it's decided...

++A Little Green

Just because. :p

satansaloser2005

05-09-2020, 02:58 PM

Crap, I missed where I was actually asked. Sorry!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Lottie right now.

Loslote

05-09-2020, 02:59 PM

crap, i missed where i was actually asked. Sorry!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Lottie right now.

Don't.

Legate of Amon Lanc

05-09-2020, 02:59 PM

Crap, I missed where I was actually asked. Sorry!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Lottie right now.

Only *I ALONE* asked it like FIVE TIMES (okay, maybe only four, heh?)

Pitchwife

05-09-2020, 02:59 PM

Is everybody allowed a throwaway vote once in the game?

++Eönwë

satansaloser2005

05-09-2020, 02:59 PM

Only *I ALONE* asked it like FIVE TIMES (okay, maybe only four, heh?)

I haven't been keeping up. :(

Nogrod

05-09-2020, 03:00 PM

DEADLINE: PLEASE CEASE ALL POSTING!

Sally is moved into the QT with...

Narration coming soon.

Rune Son of Bjarne

05-09-2020, 03:00 PM

Is everybody allowed a throwaway vote once in the game?

++Eönwë

More I hope

EDIT: X'ed with the mod, and is very sorry.

Loslote

05-09-2020, 03:00 PM

Cool. Well, I'm pretty positive Sally's a wolf, but if she isn't and she hunts me, I am going to be so, so mad. :mad:

satansaloser2005

05-09-2020, 03:00 PM

I changed to Mac at the last moment. Consistency!

x'd since before Nog

Nogrod

05-09-2020, 03:24 PM

Just as Húrin had thought it couldn’t get any worse, he suddenly realized that they were thinking of putting his son into quarantine! He couldn’t stand Morwen’s gaze and had to turn away from her. He knew what he should do as the lord of his people, but he also knew what he should do as a father of the heir of the House of Hador. Sadly, those meant different things.

In the end it was clear though.

“Túrin my son. You must go inside with uncle Huor. You take good care of him and stay safe from these monsters. This will end one day.” Húrin said holding his son from the shoulders. “Grithnir has opened the door for you…”

Túrin’s face was growing dark and his hands were shaking, but he seemed to be able to keep his emotions in control. “Yes, father.” he answered in an oddly neutral tone in his voice.

The little boy hopped up the stairs but stopped suddenly just inside the doorframe. “Wait!”

Before anyone could realize what was happening, they heard a softened cry and Grithnir, who had been standing by the door ready to close it after Túrin, fell down with some odd dirty linens covering his head. Túrin had jumped on him from behind with the infected linens used inside! Someone else from inside had to have helped Túrin as Grithnir’s legs disappeared inside in an instant. Gethron was springing towards the door to claim his friend back but was stopped by Húrin’s and Forweg’s heavy hands.

“No Gethron, it’s too late” Hurin said quitly while pressing sternly on the old warriors arm. “I’m sorry, but it’s over.”

~*~

Dead, yes dead

Nogrod – “The Badger”, the Mod (dead on Night1)
Urwen – Glóredhel, healthy person (withered away in grief during Day2)

Quarantined

Galadriel55 – Andróg, the Cobbler (voted into QT on Day1)
Rikae – Haldir, formerly healthy person (infected by the shady Infectors on Night2)
Huinesoron – Hareth, an Infector (voted into QT on Day2)
Kitanna – Huor, the Ranger (infected in the woods by the Infectors on Night3)
Sally – Túrin, the Hunter (voted into QT on Day3)
Macalaure – Grithnir, healthy person (dragged into the QT by the Hunter on Day3)

Hanging around

Thinlómien
Legate of Amon Lanc
Loslote
Pitchwife
Kath
Lhunardawen
Inziladun
A Little Green
Boromir88
Lalaith
Brinniel
Eönwë
Rune Son of Bjarne
THE Ka
Shastanis Althreduin

It’s now Night 4

Have an earned respite and try to sleep.

Nogrod

05-10-2020, 03:00 PM

Asgon was pushing through a blizzard of snow and then, following immediately, ducking away from fiery bolts of hot lava. First he thought he was breathing heavily just because of the effort, but then he realized there was something huge on his chest: an oliphant! Compared to that, the fidgeting little fishes on his face felt totally natural and harmless.

Until he realized that even after waking up the feeling stayed the same. The oliphant didn’t go anywhere and his face felt slimy and smelt awful. Then he saw it.

Someone had left a bucket, a soap and a towel in front of the door, like waiting for him to pick them going out.

Suddenly it was all clear to him.

It felt humiliating to actually pick the stuff left to him, but it made all the sense to do that. Slowly but steadily Asgon staggered to the Great Hall and fell down on the stairs.

Forweg and Algund found him from there in the morning and helped him inside.

~*~

Dead, yes dead

Nogrod – “The Badger”, the Mod (dead on Night1)
Urwen – Glóredhel, healthy person (withered away in grief during Day2)

Quarantined

Galadriel55 – Andróg, the Cobbler (voted into QT on Day1)
Rikae – Haldir, formerly healthy person (infected by the shady Infectors on Night2)
Huinesoron – Hareth, an Infector (voted into QT on Day2)
Kitanna – Huor, the Ranger (infected in the woods by the Infectors on Night3)
Sally – Túrin, the Hunter (voted into QT on Day3)
Macalaure – Grithnir, healthy person (dragged into the QT by the Hunter on Day3)
Legate of Amon Lanc – Asgon, healthy person (infected sneakily on Night4)

Hanging around

Thinlómien
Loslote
Pitchwife
Kath
Lhunardawen
Inziladun
A Little Green
Boromir88
Lalaith
Brinniel
Eönwë
Rune Son of Bjarne
THE Ka
Shastanis Althreduin

It's now Day 4

It's time to talk again.

Loslote

05-10-2020, 03:03 PM

So the deadline yesterDay sucked. :rolleyes: Can't believe the Hunter couldn't find a single person in the whole village more suspicious than a) someone who voted for a wolf the Day before or b) the other major bandwagon option the Day a wolf got lynched......Glad she didn't hunt me, but really sucks for Mac.

Inziladun

05-10-2020, 03:06 PM

Man. Horror yesterDay, and this.

Legate? There would seem to be only two reasons they would target him.
1. Possible Seer. Always the top lupine obsession. It's certainly worth seeing if he said anything they'd key on. Barring that:
2. He seemed to be generally trusted, and would probably not be high on anyone's lynch list.

x/d with Lottie

Inziladun

05-10-2020, 03:07 PM

Inziladun

05-10-2020, 03:08 PM

YesterDay, I thought there was a pretty good chance I'd be on the block. I threw caution to the wind and voted.

Maybe it was easier for me, having voted the same way as Sally Day 2, to have not seen the "suspicion" apparently evident. But that wagon was evil.

The driving force was Lommy.

She started in on Sally early yesterDay.

Uh, you have something to confess? Are you the next fatalistic wolf à la Mac?

I was put in the "fatalistic" set too. I can't speak for Sally, but having already been suspected before, I was fully prepared to have people gunning for me after voting Mac instead of Hueywolf. I was resigned to repeatedly having to defend myself. I picked up the same vibe from her.

Sally -> Macalaure 4

Another one who steered clear of the Huine issue, wondered aloud if she should vote Mac or Lottie. Went for Mac who had more votes of the two at the time when Huine was rapidly gaining more votes. Extremely dubious vote - especially if we take into account that at least to me at this point Huine didn't seem like a "lost case" at all.

This is quite a lofty position for someone who voted the same way, albeit early, and who was given softball suspicion from Huey.

Can I start giving paranoid wolf awards? :p YesterDay Mac and Brinn for thinking they're being framed by the Rikae kill, toDay Sally and Inzil being convinced they're done for. None of that looks very innocent to me.

Sally looks very furry to me right now. She did before, her vote was the worst, and her apologetic attitude toDay is not helping her cause at all. Fishy fishy lupine fish.

Again, why is it that only a wolf could be resigned to the fact that they know they're going to face suspicion? I think you greatly exaggerated this about both of us.

Sally - Eeevil cupcake. Eeeevil. Has been suspiciously safe in her choices since the beginning, tried to save Huine yesterDay, toDay first seemed to have given up and now is trying to convince people she'd have bussed a fellow!Huine. There's nothing innocent in this mix. Certainly my main suspect at the moment.

She voted for Brinn to save Kit Day 2. "Suspiciously safe"?

I mean, even if Sally is indeed the hunter, don't we want to give her a shot?

Think about it. If I'm right and she's bluffing, we win.

If I'm wrong and she's indeed the hunter, well, then I would trust her to have a faily high chance to take a wolf with her, which is also a pretty good outcome.

(Yeah, I know in the worst case we could lose two innocents but hey, that's the game. If Sally is the hunter let her do her job. I trust her to pick wisely.)

That's a pretty cavalier attitude, considering that the odds were still heavily in favor of Sally tagging an innocent over a wolf. "You can't make an omelet without breaking eggs, amirite"?

Why on earth would the hunter send the pick earlier than she has to?

Because she's RL busy, maybe?

Okay yes good point about the hunter pick.

Who are you "hunting" Sally?

If it had been me, there's no way I'd have said who I'd really picked. I'd have picked a name out of thin air.

You personally like known innocents, I personally like dead wolves, and I'm willing to take risks to get them.

That's one of the wolfiest wolf statements I've seen in a long time.

Let's take the Sally chance, no weird last minute things please!!!

Says our favorite Cheerleader of Doom.™

Lalaith

05-10-2020, 03:09 PM

Well at least the baddies are no longer in the majority on the QT. :rolleyes:

Loslote

05-10-2020, 03:14 PM

Lalaith

05-10-2020, 03:15 PM

I agree btw that Lommy's bloodlust at the close of yesterDay was quite scary.

Lhunardawen

05-10-2020, 03:16 PM

Really sorry for the absence and non-vote yesterDay. I had taken a supposed nap after work and didn’t wake up until after the deadline. :rolleyes:

It feels hypocritical to analyse these votes when I didn’t put one in.

DAY 3 VOTES (with Day 2, Day 1)

THE Ka -> Sally (Lottie 2, Brinniel 3)
QT -> Brinn (Brinn)
Eönwë -> Sally 2 (Hui 7, Urwen)
Kath -> Inzil (Inzil, G55 2)
Greenie -> Sally 3 (Mac 2, Mac)
Lommy -> Sally 4 (Mac, G55 5)
——HunterSally reveal——
Inzil -> Brinn 2 (Mac 5, G55 3)
Lottie -> Sally 5 (Hui 4, G55 4)
Lalaith -> Sally 6 (Hui 5, no vote)
Legate -> Sally 7 (Hui, Brinn 5)
Shasta -> Sally 8 (Mac 7, Pitch 2)
Brinn -> Sally 9 (Hui 6, G55 7)
Rune -> Inzil 2 (Lottie, Brinn 4)
Boro -> Sally 10 (Mac 6, Pitch)
Pitch -> Eonwe (Hui 3, Brinn 2)
No vote: Lhuna (Lommy, Lhuna)

Based on the voting patterns ALONE, these stand out to me at the moment:

Likely Innocent
Lottie
Cast a decisive Hui vote. Her reactions to being a possible Huntee looked genuinely innocent to me.

Pitch
Cast a decisive Hui vote. He believed sally’s reveal, so his vote for Eonwe shows integrity.

Bad
Eonwe
I still think his vote for Urwen was a throwaway.
I still believe his vote for Hui could be wolf-on-wolf.
He prefaced his vote for sally with Since I have to go now, I worry that if I leave, there might be a bandwaggon for someone I don't think is evil, so, let's make this a thing:
I do not understand this at all.

Lommy
I know she had been consistent about suspecting sally yesterDay, but she could be a wolf who knows that sally is likely to target an innocent based on her suspicions, so she boldly challenged her claim and pushed for her lynching. Two birds, one stone.

Shasta
I’m still not comfortable about that throwaway Mac vote. Also voting for Sally after this I don't believe Sally, but equally - we shouldn't lynch her. If she's real, we force the wolves to kill her; if she's fake, the real Hunter hunts her. Easy enough. then afterwards saying this There would come a point where we'd QT Sally as the last possible wolf. But I'm more inclined to think she's a wolf the longer she goes without posting, so I'm more fine with QTing her, I guess. I don’t follow.

Boro
I still think his late vote for Mac on Day 2 was an attempt to save Hui. The strange thing, however, is that before the Huiwagon gained steam, he threw in a comment agreeing with Legate (after he expressed that he’s considering voting for Hui) that Hui was worth giving a more thorough look. He probably didn’t expect the Huiwagon to take off the way it did, and so held his vote at the last possible minute to save him.
His vote for sally came after concurring with Shasta’s first statement above. Also, his “If you're the hunter, happy killing” comment just sounds too flippant. Like “I know your current suspects are innocents so have fun killing any of them.” Again, two birds, one stone. I wouldn’t be surprised if at least a couple of wolves voted for sally for this very reason.

Should look more closely
Brinn
Mighty strange how all her votes came in towards the end of a successful bandwagon, even if we don’t count the Day 1 vote to save herself.

Rune
Last mention of Zil on Day 2, he was in his neutral zone, and his suspects were Brinn, Lottie, and Eonwe. YesterDay, he said his quick read-through had not yielded any new suspicions. Afterwards he asked to confirm if his understanding of why Zil and sally were being suspected is accurate, which Legate did. Next thing we see, he could vote for Zil as well as his three suspects without feeling too bad about it. So while his not voting for sally is consistent with his stand on her reveal, his choice of vote seems oddly out of the blue.

Greenie
Primarily because she has voted for two known innocents so far

Boromir88

05-10-2020, 03:19 PM

After the first 2 days, I guess it was inevitable to foul a lynch up at least once. Let's try not to have another one?

1. Can we trust the QT now? Please. But I swear if they give us Brinn again I'm going to lose it.

2. 3/4ths of you are as suspicious as suspicion can be.

3. I'm starting to get a clearer picture, and imagining a pack of Lhuna, Lottie and Inzil. An unknown 4th at the moment, but I'm starting with you 3.

My voting may have been crap, but Lhuna's yours is completely clean since Day 1. Alarm is raised.

Lottie you managed to convince the hunter to change her choice in the last second and I have no idea why.'

Inzil I need to get a better read on, but there's a lot to be answered for with your defense yesterday. I never pegged you as a "roll over" type, until yesterday.

Edit: crossed since Lottie's post to open.

Pitchwife

05-10-2020, 03:24 PM

It really sucks to loose Legate - maybe the only player I felt I could trust (although I felt pretty good about Mac too yesterDay).

Zil, when you voted Brinn and invited people to vote you, were you trying to save sally or what? I think it was before her reveal, and your post looked unfinished.

This is quite a lofty position for someone who voted the same way, albeit early, and who was given softball suspicion from Huey.
This. She came out of the gate yesterDay (#593) asserting there had to be at least one wolf who voted Mac after the first Hui vote, and other people (Lottie, Brinn, Eönwë) repeated the point so often that 'suspecting the late Mac voters' almost turned into a meme. Makes me wonder whether we are to be distracted from a wolf in the EARLY Mac voters (or, if there is indeed a wolf among the late voters and sally was use to distract from them).

Inziladun

05-10-2020, 03:26 PM

Really sorry for the absence and non-vote yesterDay. I had taken a supposed nap after work and didn’t wake up until after the deadline. :rolleyes:

I didn't make your list?

Shasta
I’m still not comfortable about that throwaway Mac vote. Also voting for Sally after this then afterwards saying this I don’t follow.

I'm not sure I do, either.

Boro
I still think his late vote for Mac on Day 2 was an attempt to save Hui. The strange thing, however, is that before the Huiwagon gained steam, he threw in a comment agreeing with Legate (after he expressed that he’s considering voting for Hui) that Hui was worth giving a more thorough look. He probably didn’t expect the Huiwagon to take off the way it did, and so held his vote at the last possible minute to save him.
His vote for sally came after concurring with Shasta’s first statement above. Also, his “If you're the hunter, happy killing” comment just sounds too flippant. Like “I know your current suspects are innocents so have fun killing any of them.” Again, two birds, one stone. I wouldn’t be surprised if at least a couple of wolves voted for sally for this very reason.

I really don't see why innocents would blithely wave goodbye at a revealed Hunter, who, if they were legitimate, still had a worse than even chance of hitting a wolf.

x/d with Boro and Pitch

Inziladun

05-10-2020, 03:28 PM

Zil, when you voted Brinn and invited people to vote you, were you trying to save sally or what? I think it was before her reveal, and your post looked unfinished.

I was going to add more, but the boss (my better half) was calling.

This. She came out of the gate yesterDay (#593) asserting there had to be at least one wolf who voted Mac after the first Hui vote, and other people (Lottie, Brinn, Eönwë) repeated the point so often that 'suspecting the late Mac voters' almost turned into a meme. Makes me wonder whether we are to be distracted from a wolf in the EARLY Mac voters (or, if there is indeed a wolf among the late voters and sally was use to distract from them).

Quite possible. I still think there was at least one wolf on Huey.

Loslote

05-10-2020, 03:33 PM

Lottie you managed to convince the hunter to change her choice in the last second and I have no idea why.'

Are you kidding me? Sally's suspicions were all based on gut feeling alone, and I guess my insisting that I was not a wolf convinced her. But you know what I was thinking all last Night? "Well, there's no way I'll be alive in the Morning. The wolves are going to think I was trying to hint that I was Gifted. They'll definitely kill me toNight." I was very surprised when I saw that I was still alive, and I half thought, "maybe the wolves are going to try to prod a little, see if they can figure out if I was Gifted hinting or not." But I really didn't think anyone was going to be this blatant about it.

(I wasn't, by the way. I am not the Seer, I have zero special information, I was not trying to hint that I was Gifted to Sally yesterDay, I was simply trying to convince her I was innocent, because it seemed horrible to me that we could lose two innocents in one mislynch.)

3. I'm starting to get a clearer picture, and imagining a pack of Lhuna, Lottie and Inzil. An unknown 4th at the moment, but I'm starting with you 3.

My voting may have been crap, but Lhuna's yours is completely clean since Day 1. Alarm is raised.

Lhuna voted once as a throwaway because she wouldn't be there for the Deadline, once very early for Lommy, and once missed the deadline. She can't be here at the deadline, so she has never posted when it's gotten messy. She can't control that, it isn't suspicious or innocent, it just is.

This post from Boro screams suspicious to me. He joins Lommy at the top of my suspicion list. Like, what even is this. :rolleyes:

This. She came out of the gate yesterDay (#593) asserting there had to be at least one wolf who voted Mac after the first Hui vote, and other people (Lottie, Brinn, Eönwë) repeated the point so often that 'suspecting the late Mac voters' almost turned into a meme. Makes me wonder whether we are to be distracted from a wolf in the EARLY Mac voters (or, if there is indeed a wolf among the late voters and sally was use to distract from them).

Yes, that's what I'm thinking. At this point, I really, really think that Boro was a wolf, and that Lommy and maybe also Greenie pushed Sally and downplayed the suspicion against Boro (neither even mentioned him in the same breath as Sally and Zil, even though he did exactly the same thing).

Inziladun

05-10-2020, 03:34 PM

Inzil I need to get a better read on, but there's a lot to be answered for with your defense yesterday. I never pegged you as a "roll over" type, until yesterday.

If I was, I'd have just self-voted and left it at that. I had no intention of voting for Sally, and was rather tired of what seemed to be taunting from the QT. I didn't have much hope anyone would follow me, though. Since several had put me on the "eevil" list that Day, I figured a bandwagon would follow. Then, like I told Pitch, my long-suffering mate requested my presence. :)

x/d with Lottie

Boromir88

05-10-2020, 03:41 PM

Boro
I still think his late vote for Mac on Day 2 was an attempt to save Hui. The strange thing, however, is that before the Huiwagon gained steam, he threw in a comment agreeing with Legate (after he expressed that he’s considering voting for Hui) that Hui was worth giving a more thorough look. He probably didn’t expect the Huiwagon to take off the way it did, and so held his vote at the last possible minute to save him.
His vote for sally came after concurring with Shasta’s first statement above. Also, his “If you're the hunter, happy killing” comment just sounds too flippant. Like “I know your current suspects are innocents so have fun killing any of them.” Again, two birds, one stone. I wouldn’t be surprised if at least a couple of wolves voted for sally for this very reason.

Interesting. I wonder...but that will have to wait.

My comments to sally were tongue-in-cheek. After she pulled that reveal and left us hanging, until right before the DL I seriously doubted she was the hunter. I was wrong.

All you people looking at Lommy's "blood lust" are hypocrites. Apologies if that's offensive, but 10 people voted for sally. Yes there's a sure thing wolf votes are in there, but you can't tell me that people believed that reveal with how the end of day played out. I mean no offense to sally, we've all been there, but you can't blame an unconvincing reveal on a few people and act like you knew she was the real hunter. Unless you already knew she was the hunter.

Pitchwife

05-10-2020, 03:43 PM

I was going to add more, but the boss (my better half) was calling.
Out of curiosity, what would you have added?

I still think there was at least one wolf on Huey.
That too.

If there was another wolf (beyond Hui) among those who voted Mac before the Huiwagon, this would have to be Lommy or Greenie; if among the later Mac voters maybe Boro (whom several people had grouped with sally and Zil as top suspects yesterDay but gave a pass), or maybe even Shasta.

(By the way, we have now had two bandwagons against innocents with people voting them because "why would an innocent X act like this?" I think the next person to use this argument may get an automatic vote from me.)

Loslote

05-10-2020, 03:45 PM

All you people looking at Lommy's "blood lust" are hypocrites. Apologies if that's offensive, but 10 people voted for sally. Yes there's a sure thing wolf votes are in there, but you can't tell me that people believed that reveal with how the end of day played out. I mean no offense to sally, we've all been there, but you can't blame an unconvincing reveal on a few people and act like you knew she was the real hunter. Unless you already knew she was the hunter.

Personally, I cycled through "it's fine, it's fine, she's faking, she's a wolf, there's no way" and "oh no oh no she's the Hunter who is she going to kill????" so fast my head was spinning. Yeah, I was the one in danger, but still, there was no glee whatsoever when I thought about "what if she IS the Hunter?". And I'm pretty sure you can tell, reading my posts, that I was absolutely dreading her killing an innocent. You could tell from Legate's posts that he was frantic, too. The only people who wouldn't be frantic and full of dread and panic would have been the wolves, who had a really good idea of what was about to happen. There were too many unknowns for the villagers to have been comfortable, and when I look at the people I know were innocent around the deadline, we really, really were not comfortable. Therefore, the people who did not come across as frantic and uncomfortable? I highly suspect they are wolves.

Rune Son of Bjarne

05-10-2020, 03:46 PM

This truly bums me out.

Legate was by far the most innocent looking in my eyes, but I guess that was also the root of his downfall. He seemed to have been generally trusted, or at least not the subject of much suspicion.

I am off to bed and will have a busy day at work tomorrow, but I will se if I can find enough time to take a look at the people suspected by Legate. No matter what I will be here some hours prior to deadline.

Inziladun

05-10-2020, 03:58 PM

Out of curiosity, what would you have added?

Just that I had a better feeling about Mac.

Pitchwife

05-10-2020, 04:06 PM

I'm pretty sure you can tell, reading my posts, that I was absolutely dreading her killing an innocent. You could tell from Legate's posts that he was frantic, too. The only people who wouldn't be frantic and full of dread and panic would have been the wolves, who had a really good idea of what was about to happen. There were too many unknowns for the villagers to have been comfortable, and when I look at the people I know were innocent around the deadline, we really, really were not comfortable. Therefore, the people who did not come across as frantic and uncomfortable? I highly suspect they are wolves.
THIS!!! I mean, yes, on paper it's the Hunter's job to die and (hopefully) take a wolf with them, and sally knew that as well as anybody, so if the Hunter, knowing this, asks you not to lynch them, what do you do?

I really didn't and don't care for Lommy's assertions that we could totally afford to lynch an innocent this early, and if sally hit another innocent, meh, well, bad luck but not the end of the world. Effectively lynching sally amounted to a free kill for the wolves.

Lalaith

05-10-2020, 04:09 PM

Lottie
when I look at the people I know were innocent around the deadline, we really, really were not comfortable.
Yes... my gut feeling was that most of the people panicking at the end there were bewildered innocents. Rune for example feels innocent to me as a result of DL behaviour. And Legate's reactions - I started feeling a lot better about him. A bit late now of course :rolleyes:
But while Boro's accusations of hypocrisy seem a bit harsh I agree we didn't cover ourselves in glory failing to agree to an alternative candidate in time.

Boromir88

05-10-2020, 04:09 PM

This post from Boro screams suspicious to me. He joins Lommy at the top of my suspicion list. Like, what even is this. :rolleyes:

24 hours of pent up frustration with the day's events. Fairly quiet and then we have nearly 2 full pages in 30 minutes.

If my math is correct, I'm not the statistics person though, without the Ranger, we have 4 days to lynch a wolf. They've been far too content to sit back and have the gifted reveal themselves.

It's time (mostly I say this to myself) to start shaking their cage. And yesterday's end day did not help matters at all. Point well taken about looking at who was comfortable yesterday and who wasn't. If you are not a wolf, I expected you to be killed because of your previous vote for Huey and exchanges with sally. I'm still not convinced you aren't being a bold wolf openly getting sally to change her pick and not hunt you. But I'm also not convinced you are a wolf.

Trying to get up in some grills and rattle cages.

Loslote

05-10-2020, 04:16 PM

I'm still not convinced you aren't being a bold wolf openly getting sally to change her pick and not hunt you. But I'm also not convinced you are a wolf.

If I was a wolf, I would have been trying an awful lot harder to swing the vote Zil's direction, because I would have known for sure that Sally actually was the Hunter, and there would have been no motivation for me to lynch her. I voted for her because I thought there was an actual chance she was a wolf. If I really wanted to vote somewhere else, I could have pushed for Zil, who had also been suspected. In my opinion, the fact that there was no coherent alternative at all should speak to the idea that the people in Sally's crosshairs were not evil.

Thinlómien

05-10-2020, 04:23 PM

WELLLlllllllll I got what I wanted...

...but it turned out not to be what I wanted after all. I have gone through a full cycle of *despairing laughter* -> what use is logic in werewolf when it's always wrong -> I should really have been the cobbler -> "hey at least I won't have to wonder about Mac and Sally for the rest of the game" overNight and now I'm trying to recover and be useful toDay. I mean what else can you do?

But yes, looks like yesterDay wasn't my brightest moment. Nor the Day before... :rolleyes: But I can hardly do worse toDay - unless I decide to vote the seer and press for their lynch. :p

As for the Legate kill - I'm not surprised at all. He was very widely considered innocent, especially after the Huine lynch. I will look at his posts at some point to look for "seer clues" the wolves might have picked up, but now I'm off to read toDay's discussion so far.

Pitchwife

05-10-2020, 04:23 PM

If I was a wolf, I would have been trying an awful lot harder to swing the vote Zil's direction, because I would have known for sure that Sally actually was the Hunter, and there would have been no motivation for me to lynch her.
But you would only have known that after her reveal, which was ~45 min to DL, so the time to get a Zilwagon rolling after that was limited. Prior to that, you would only have known that she was not a wolf, so you could have been comfortable with lynching her (and indeed had her in your suspects list) right up until the reveal.

Loslote

05-10-2020, 04:26 PM

But you would only have known that after her reveal, which was ~45 min to DL, so the time to get a Zilwagon rolling after that was limited. Prior to that, you would only have known that she was not a wolf, so you could have been comfortable with lynching her (and indeed had her in your suspects list) right up until the reveal.

Right, but a few of us threw out there that we should think about an alternative plan, and a couple of people said "maybe Zil", and not a single person actually said "okay, vote Zil if you don't want to lynch Sally". It was possible, and I'm pretty sure it would've worked, too. I didn't make that call because I decided to take the risk and hope Sally was a wolf. If I was a wolf, I would have known she wasn't, and I would've known I was likely her target, so I definitely would have committed to Zil as the alternate option.

Pitchwife

05-10-2020, 04:35 PM

Right, but a few of us threw out there that we should think about an alternative plan, and a couple of people said "maybe Zil", and not a single person actually said "okay, vote Zil if you don't want to lynch Sally".
Except for (as I took it at the time) Zil himself, which is why I didn't want to vote him. Ironically, considering what I posted yesterDay before the sally debacle, I'm beginning to think Zil may well be innocent after all. I'm still wondering about you.
But it's true, like Lal said and Mac yesterDay, those of us who didn't want sally lynched screwed it up bigtime.

Loslote

05-10-2020, 04:38 PM

Except for (as I took it at the time) Zil himself, which is why I didn't want to vote him. Ironically, considering what I posted yesterDay before the sally debacle, I'm beginning to think Zil may well be innocent after all. I'm still wondering about you.

I actually agree with that. I'm by no means letting him off the hook - I still think at least one of the people who voted Mac right at the end was a wolf - but I'm getting a better feeling about Zil toDay and a much, much worse one about Boro (and Lommy).

Lalaith

05-10-2020, 04:43 PM

One thing that occurs to me before I turn in - if Lommy is a wolf then Lottie is probably not and vice versa.

Brinniel

05-10-2020, 04:59 PM

My gosh yesterDay was a mess. I am baffled why Sally last-minute switched to Mac - compared to everyone else, he appeared to be on the more innocent side. But I guess that at least takes the question of whether two wolves were on the table Day 2.

I don't think a Lommy-wolf would be so bold to lead the charge against Sally. It's more likely to me that a wolf (or two) just went with the flow because with seven votes against Sally post-hunter reveal, that would've been a much easier way to hide. The fact that Inzil was so keen to jump on her doesn't make me feel any better of him. I do not trust him one bit.

I'm actually liking what Boro has to say toDay. Strange, I know. I'm still wary of him due to the timing of his vote on Mac, but maybe less so.

Kath

05-10-2020, 05:05 PM

What is it with these sudden reveals at the end of a Day?! And the Hunter. It's been a while since I played, but isn't the idea generally to not lynch the Hunter, especially so early on, because of the risk of them taking down an innocent?

My suspicions haven't changed since my last list, so Zil, Boro, and Sally are my top choices, followed by Lommy and Lalaith.

Since I have to go now, I worry that if I leave, there might be a bandwaggon for someone I don't think is evil, so, let's make this a thing:

++Sally
Eonwe, what made you choose sally over your other two suspects at the point of voting? sally already had a vote at that point but Inziland Boro were pretty heavily suspected too. I'm particularly interested in this vote because it was before sally's reveal.

You know what?
I'm not going to hold out to try to save myself.

++Brinn

For being Rikae's Day 1 vote, for getting by since, and because the QT baddies are daring us.

Do the same, vote for someone else, or me,
Annoyed innocent here or calculated wolf? I think the self-sacrificial attitude does actually make me feel a bit better about him, but then I'm interested to know what he felt about sally, as this did put Brinn at 2 votes while sally already had 4, and at the time he was the only other lynch candidate with votes. Also, voting for sally would have been him actually working to save himself whereas the vote for Brinn was by no means putting himself safe.

Then sally reveals.

Legate seems suspicious of her - who do you claim you are hunting - whereas Pitch seems happy to take it at face value.

If Sally was the real hunter and thought she's gonna get lynched, wouldn't she let us do it and gun for whoever she thinks is the most suspicious, then let us analyse the bandwagon against known innocent her the Day after? We're not yet at a point where we can't afford lynching an innocent. I'm aware it's a question of playing style and how many risks you want to take, but if I was in Sally's position and the hunter I would never ever reveal.
A very strong reaction from Lommy.

Shasta also absolutely not believing sally. But he and Lommy have very different opinions on how to go about this. Lommy feels lynching sally either rids the village of a wolf pretending to be the Hunter, or means the Hunter can use their power and hopefully catch a wolf. Shasta feels it should be left to the Night. I think Shasta's version is safer for the village. Lommy's is high risk which she did admit herself, but felt it was early enough in the game that losing an innocent wouldn't be so bad. In terms of numbers, perhaps she's right, but I still think leaving the Hunter to the Night would have been better. Especially as if the Hunter was killed at night, and took down an innocent, then at least in the Day there might have been a chance of lynching a wolf, and so it would have been one wolf and two innocents dead, rather than now what we have with three innocents dead.

Lottie ok with lynching sally, unless she was sally's pick.

Rune did not want to lynch sally. Nor did Boro.

Legate agreeing with Lommy that not lynching sally would leave a 'what if' cloud over her role.

Lalaith didn't want to vote sally.

Mac was on the fence.

Reading it back over, it was utter chaos by this point. Lottie goes with what she said and votes sally, despite knowing sally was suspicious of her. This pushed sally's vote count high and was risky for Lottie - unless she's a very bold wolf I think this speaks to her innocence. Lottie does, however, plead for sally not to hunt her. Interestingly, sally did heed this and changed to Mac. Doesn't point to Lottie's innocence or guilt either way but apparently she is very persuasive!

We're still relatively early in the game, so the chances of a hunter picking an innocent is relatively high and worth the risk for the wolves. It's in the end game that a hunter is very powerful.
I think this sums up my feelings about the issue. sally agrees with this, but still goes for Mac.

Lalaith changes her mind and votes sally - can I ask what caused the change, Lal?

Legate and Shasta both vote sally. Shasta didn't want to lynch the Hunter in the earlier discussion, so I'm assuming his vote was because he was convinced she wasn't the Hunter.

Brinn ... I didn't spot her opinion on sally earlier. What were your thoughts, Brinn?

Rune sticks to his not-lynching-the-Hunter guns and votes Inzil.

Boro changes his mind and votes sally in the interest of self preservation. Why the change of mind here, Boro? I know you cross posted but I don't think you were actually in danger at this point. The majority of the village had voted and sally was already well in the lead with votes.

Mac votes Greenie - well, he had suspected her all day and the decision was made.

Pitch, who had seemed to believe sally straight away, votes Eonwe. Pitch, what was it that had you so convinced?

sally did not help herself, that much is certain. RL can't be helped but this was nuts. Lottie and Lalaith seemed to be reacting to the situation as it presented, whereas Shasta, Lommy and Legate seemed convinced sally was either evil or that lynching the Hunter would be of more benefit than leaving them alive. I still think the theory was wrong, but we can see from Legate's role that that doesn't automatically equal wolf.

Right, but a few of us threw out there that we should think about an alternative plan, and a couple of people said "maybe Zil", and not a single person actually said "okay, vote Zil if you don't want to lynch Sally". It was possible, and I'm pretty sure it would've worked, too. I didn't make that call because I decided to take the risk and hope Sally was a wolf. If I was a wolf, I would have known she wasn't, and I would've known I was likely her target, so I definitely would have committed to Zil as the alternate option.
Yeah, Lottie is feeling innocent to me here. A lot of names were in the mix as alternative candidates yesterDay but no one pushed forward with a vote. We now know sally was the Hunter and she had Mac and Lottie as her top suspects. We now know Mac is innocent and I'm pretty confident with Lottie being innocent, so I can see why the wolves didn't want to push anyone else forward.

Pitchwife

05-10-2020, 05:07 PM

Also let's not focus on Lommy vs Lottie to the extent of neglecting those who added to the suspicion against sally later: Brinn, Greenie, Eönwë, THE Ka (who actually tried to make something like a case against sally, beyond 'her vote was bad and she's acting weird').

Bedtime now. I'm on annual leave, so I'll probably pop in sometime in the Afternoon and be back a few hours to DL.

Thinlómien

05-10-2020, 05:22 PM

This is quite a lofty position for someone who voted the same way, albeit early,I voted Mac before no one even half seriously suggested Huey was a vote candidate. The bandwagon against him came totally out of the blue for me. Therefore, my vote was in no way related to Huey. While Sally, yourself, and a few others voted Mac after Huey as a possible vote candidate. I don't see how does this not make you more likely wolves?? Of course, my vote doesn't make me innocent or you guys' votes don't make you guilty (case in point: Sally), but I was talking about probabilities. It is more probable for a vote that put someone else ahead of a known wolf to be a wolf's vote than for an average vote to be a wolf's vote. I understand if you disagree with my suspicion, but I don't understand if you disagree with the logical principle behind it.

Again, why is it that only a wolf could be resigned to the fact that they know they're going to face suspicion? I think you greatly exaggerated this about both of us.In my experience wolves are more prone to overreact to suspicion or potential suspicion, because they are nervous of getting caught. Again, absolute basic werewolf principle I thought you'd agree on. And again, yes, being jumpy doesn't mean you're automatically a wolf. But again, it makes it more likely because wolves are jumpier on average than innocents.

Why on earth would the hunter send the pick earlier than she has to?
Because she's RL busy, maybe? Eh, if the claimed hunter hasn't voted yet, then I would assume they haven't sent their pick either. If they're RL busy and have to send their pick early, I would assume they'd also vote early.

That's a pretty cavalier attitude, considering that the odds were still heavily in favor of Sally tagging an innocent over a wolf. "You can't make an omelet without breaking eggs, amirite"? Basically. Look, I know it's a question of playing styles, but I think ww is the most fun when all the special roles get to do their thing, even if it's less advantageous for the side I'm playing in. Maybe mathematically Sally had higher chances of hitting an innocent. But I thought that it would be fun to give her the option, and we could live with the consequences. Maybe the break from ww made me take this game less seriously. Maybe I'm a bit of a cobbler, then. :p But I'm certainly not a wolf.

Anyway, the whole discussion of my attitude about "Sally the hunter" is pretty theoretical. You have to understand I was 90% sure she was a wolf. 90% of my brain was "I don't trust her, I don't trust her, I don't trust her let's kill her". The remaining 10% was "but ok what if she is actualy the hunter? what then?" and my brain's answer was "well it's just gonna be fun and it would be epic if she stabbed a wolf". I will readily admit that I was arguing for lynching a potential hunter making sense just because I wanted to get Sally lynched because I was convinced she was a wolf, not the hunter, so I kinda twisted my whole logic around that. I see I'm still doing it to a degree... :D

You don't need to tell me I was wrong about Sally, and that I was stupid, and that I literally pressed my fellow villagers to lynch our hunter. I perhaps ignored whether it's strategically wise because I was too blinded by my conviction that Sally was bluffing. So yes, I shot us in the foot a little, and you can be angry and frustrated about that, but I truly thought I was doing what's best for the village.

I also note that Lommy was not one of the people asking for the name of the person Sally was hunting, and didn't try to suggest any names or anything like that. She seemed completely fine with whatever Sally decided - which, given that none of the people Sally suspected are people I think are at all likely to be wolves, I find really concerning.Wrong. I was not one of the first people to ask her who she's hunting, because it simply did not cross my mind to do so. However, once the question had been brought up, I seconded it. And yeah, I was fine with whatever Sally was going to pick. I trusted that if she was miraculously the real hunter, she might have a good guess. Also I admit that I also thought "well, if she happens to be the hunter, it's her problem who she picks, not mine". Irresponsible? Maybe a little, yes, but once again I repeat: I thought it was extremely unlikely she actually was the hunter. I certainly did not spend any time speculating who she might hunt if she's the hunter, because a) like I said I did not think she was the hunter in the first place, b) I would not think that the suspicions she voiced on the thread had anything to do with who she's hunting in case she was the actual hunter. Most hunters I've seen don't want to keep their cards on the table like that.

I agree btw that Lommy's bloodlust at the close of yesterDay was quite scary. I'm sorry, I can get a bit of tunnel vision in werewolf. Whether I'm right or wrong is about 50-50... :rolleyes: At least, with Sally and Mac dead I'm forced to start afresh, and I think I've learned to take a breather when I get tunnel vision.

She came out of the gate yesterDay (#593) asserting there had to be at least one wolf who voted Mac after the first Hui vote, and other people (Lottie, Brinn, Eönwë) repeated the point so often that 'suspecting the late Mac voters' almost turned into a meme. Makes me wonder whether we are to be distracted from a wolf in the EARLY Mac voters (or, if there is indeed a wolf among the late voters and sally was use to distract from them). For the record, I still think it's extremely likely there is a wolf among the late Mac voters - it just wasn't Sally, who I pegged as the most fishy of them. But there is more than one wolf left, so there could be a wolf among the early Mac voters too. Or among the Huine voters. Or among those who didn't vote either. But I thought the late Mac voters were the most likely bunch and thus the best place to start.

I really don't see why innocents would blithely wave goodbye at a revealed Hunter, who, if they were legitimate, still had a worse than even chance of hitting a wolf.I'm trying not to get annoyed, because frankly I deserve to be judged for yesterDay, but can y'all step down from your high horses for a sec, however deserved your seating up there? The only people who could have known Sally was the real hunter were the wolves. None of us others knew that. We had to weigh her claim and decide what to think of it. A lot of us had the unfortunate starting point that we were already suspicious of Sally for one reason or another. Claiming to be the hunter is quite a good wolvish lynch prevention tactic because a) the real hunter might be reluctant to challenge because it greatly decreases their chance to get to use their special ability and b) conversely, flushing the real hunter out is a big favour to the wolves, it's like flagging a landmine for them. So I would certainly take a hunter claim with a bigger pinch of salt than say a seer claim. Besides, later it was brought into the discussion that Sally should tell us who she's hunting. She did not react, even though she seemed to be around. That also seemed dodgy to me. She could have said "I'd rather not tell" or told us a name and maybe given us more to analyse that way because now the people not voting Sally would have been protecting both Sally AND whoever she named. To me, she looked like a wolf caught in the middle of a half baked ploy, unsure how to proceed.

I really didn't and don't care for Lommy's assertions that we could totally afford to lynch an innocent this earlyI'm gonna stand by this and say, yes we could. We probably can toDay too, but we obviously shouldn't.

Also I'm just gonna say that personally I think Lottie's "oh please Sally don't hunt me I'm innocent!!!" looks pretty innocent (especially paired with her Huey vote). I mean I guess she might be a brilliant wolf, but my infamous logic tells me she's unlikely to be one.

edit: xed with everyone on this page

Eönwë

05-10-2020, 05:29 PM

Wow, looks like I need to catch up on what happened after I left.

Eonwe, what made you choose sally over your other two suspects at the point of voting? sally already had a vote at that point but Inziland Boro were pretty heavily suspected too. I'm particularly interested in this vote because it was before sally's reveal.

I had to go, and we've seen how quickly sudden bandwaggons can appear and there were only 2 previous votes when I voted (and one for was for Brinn, who wasn't someone I wanted to be lynched), so I just wanted to do my best to ensure that one of the three that I strongly suspected (the other two being Zil and Boro) was a viable lynch candidate.

Pitchwife

05-10-2020, 05:33 PM

Pitch, who had seemed to believe sally straight away, votes Eonwe. Pitch, what was it that had you so convinced?
About which of the two?

sally - it really felt like a rehashed plot from the Day before, with some of the same arguments that had been used against Mac being used against sally, and since I was feeling miuch better about Mac by then, I was wary of the same happening to sally. Plus, as I said yesterDay, the sallywagon was being pushed (and pushed very hard) by a mixture of people I didn't and don't particularly trust. I had noticed sally hint at her role earlier, so when she revealed I was willing to give her the benefit of doubt.

Eönwë - I've been suspecting him since D1, based on a mix of mostly very uncontroversial posting, throwaway vote for Urwen, IMO possibly wolf-on-wolf vote for Hui and eagerness to jump on the sallywagon. I regret not doing this earlier when it could have mattered.

Brinniel

05-10-2020, 05:45 PM

Brinn ... I didn't spot her opinion on sally earlier. What were your thoughts, Brinn?
I did put my opinion in before voting. Initially, I responded to Lommy's doubt of Sally's claim, stating that I was pondering the same thing. I posted that I was considering Inzil or Sally, but want to know who Sally's suppoed hunter pick was. Her lack of response made me doubt her more, which is why I voted her.

Eönwë

05-10-2020, 05:47 PM

So if my count is correct, we have 14 left in the village - 4 Infectors, 8 innocents, 1 Lalaith, and 1 seer. A ratio of 10 Good: 4 Bad.

I think that means we have 3 Days (I see Boro said 4 earlier). The worst case scenario:

ToDay: We quarantine a Good. 9 good: 4 bad.
ToNight: Infectors infect a Good. 8 good: 4 bad.
ToMorrow: We quarantine a Good. 7 good: 4 bad.
ToMorrow Night: Infectors infect a Good. 6 good: 4 bad.
OverMorrow (does anyone ever use that term in this game? this seems like a useful way to reference it): We quarantine a Good. 5 good: 4 bad.
OverMorrow Night: Infectors infect a Good. 4 good: 4 bad. Infectors win.

So we actually have toDay, toMorrow, and the Day after toMorrow to catch the Infectors.

It's unlikely that it'll go that badly for us, especially since we still have the Seer, but it is important because it means that we're definitely in the mid-game now, which (at least, based on my previous games) means that we're more likely to see more complex plays from the wolves - maybe more wolf-on-wolf (since now when one dies they'll have had a lot of Days to implicate others), maybe more bluffs, more aggression, etc. So just something to watch out for.

edit: x-ed since my last post.

Thinlómien

05-10-2020, 05:47 PM

Ugh, I wanted to look at the lynch yesterDay and at Legate's posts but it's closer to 3am (oops) so I'm gonna do that tomorrow.

Still gonna say that the lynch was strangely unanimous. Clearly, a lot of innocents weren't believing Sally, and the wolves felt safe enough to hop in. As has been pointed out, mathematically Sally didn't have a particularly high chance of hitting a wolf. I guess the risk was worth it for the wolves and it was easy to hide in the flurry of innocents. Sally got 10 votes, so in the very least 3/5 of the Sally voters were innocent. Which makes the lynch possibly more difficult to analyse.

I also want to look at those who did not vote for Sally, and if any of them comes off as too sure of Sally's innocence. What a nicer place for a wolf to chill than staying away from a big innocent-on-innocent bandwagon that's bound to get scrutiny the next Day?

Safe to say, there are likely wolves both among those who did and those who did not vote for Sally. I think only closely analysing people's proclaimed reasons to do what they did will tell who's who. Or maybe not that either because I'm getting less and less convinced that werewolf is about logic. ;):rolleyes:

edit: xed with Brinn and Pitch

Eönwë

05-10-2020, 05:58 PM

Since I suspect both Zil and Lommy, I'm very inclined to see Zil's attack on Lommy toDay as a way to distance them from each other. It's only a matter of time before Zil gets quarantined (and rightly so, IMO - he's been suspicious throughout), and it might be enough to make her look better in hindsight (after all, it seems bold for a wolf to go after one of their own so strongly and before anyone else, right?). On the other hand, if Lommy is lynched toDay, then it looks like Zil spearheaded the attack, so it makes him look good in retrospect.

Maybe my judgement is clouded because I'm already convinced that Zil is evil and almost convinced that Lommy is too, but that's the feeling I'm getting here.

Eönwë

05-10-2020, 06:08 PM

Brinniel

05-10-2020, 06:25 PM

Just some initial thoughts about everyone:

Lommy: Like I said, I don't think a wolf would be bold enough to lead the charge like she did. If innocent, she certainly would be an easy target for the wolves toDay.
Lottie: I am leaning toward innocentish for her vote Day 2 and the fact that she didn't make a strong push for an alternative when she knew she might be hunted. Still, I haven't completely discounted the possibility that she could be a clever wolf who doesn't mind taking risks.
Pitchwife: His vote on Day 2 looks innocent to me and there was nothing in his behavior yesterDay that makes me think otherwise.
Kath: Has been a bit under-the-radar, but right now I feel okay about her since I agreed with her suspicions yesterDay.
Lhuna: Wasn't really around yesterDay. Still find her suspicious for reasons stated yesterDay.
Inziladun: His behavior and voting record combined, I find him highly suspicious.
Greenie: She's been floating a bit under the radar for me, so I'm not quite sure. I do find myself going back and forth on her.
Boromir: Wary, but right now feeling okay about him.
Lalaith: I think she could've possibly been a wolf-on-wolf voter on Day 2. She was resistant to vote Sally, and then she did.
Eönwë: Another potential a wolf-on-wolf voter on Day 2. He voted for Sally early yesterDay. If Inzil is a wolf, this could make his vote more suspicious. I think there's a fair chance that he or Lalaith are wolves, but less likely both of them are.
Rune: Ugh, I really don't know about him at this point.
Ka: Not sure about her either.
Shasta: I've liked his thinking so far and he's feeling genuine to me.

Eönwë

05-10-2020, 06:36 PM

I thought it might be useful to look through Hui's posts again in light of what we know now. I found this post:

Okay, reading over my main suspects (Mac, Pitch, Lommy, Zil, in that order for now):

Mac: Thought innocent yesterDay, but realised today that was down to not trusting the way people were suspecting him, when those people were a (now) known and a probable innocent. ToDay, launched straight into 'what if everyone thinks I'm a wolf', and starts in on Kitanna, which is an interesting line in view of, y'know... Kitanna. And he keeps trying to implicate the people who suspect him. I really don't like this.

Pitchwife: My chief suspect yesterDay, for his actions in the GLP & several 'just asking questions' posts; also his position on the Brinn-wagon (both suspicion and voting). Launches toDay with "this may implicate Brinn, except isn't that almost too obvious?" - I'm starting to view this less as 'just asking questions', and more as 'they will say both no and yes'. He suspects Zil with no explanation (at the time), and later pushes both the start and the stop of the Kit discussion, including one 'saw it as I was writing' crosspost that makes me feel like his post was intended to take credit for starting the 'let's shut it down' discussion.

Lommy: My second suspect yesterDay, mostly for reasons of tone I think. ToDay, she seems a lot better. #350 is a good example of this - she's not sitting there saying 'yes, but maybe no', she's analysing the evidence for both (all) sides of the discussion. And she's cast the first vote, too.

Zil: Completely off my radar yesterDay; it's those short posts of his. Today, spent a fair few posts talking about things we know aren't true, such as Rikae-wolf; even more posts on the Kit discussion; really, I'm seeing a lot of posts where Zil's contribution is shorter than what he's replying to! It may be just his style, so he's not top of my list, but he does look (at least at times) like a wolf trying to look active without having to say much.

I'm starting to worry I might just trust people who write long posts on multiple topics. :-/

Okay, at the moment I'm likely to vote Mac, but will take Pitch as still looking about as suspicious as yesterday (Mac's just more suspicious). Lommy I'm going to call neutral for now. Zil I think there's a better-than-even chance is a wolf.

At the moment, two of my top three have 1 vote each. It's going to be interesting to see who gets offered up to take the heat off them...

hS

While obviously Mac is innocent, I think it's extremely extremely unlikely that there are no wolves in this list. I'm still definitely leaning towards Zil and Lommy as suspicious, but given that Pitch has been flying under my radar since Day 1 (other than his constant suspicion of me), I think I should probably give him another look-over.

Loslote

05-10-2020, 06:45 PM

So while I have a bit of time, I'm going to go through and take a look at something I consider very suspicious: the way Lommy talks about Boro in the context of the late Mac voters - or rather, the way she really doesn't talk about him at all. To begin with, she goes through the votes themselves:

Sally -> Macalaure 4

Another one who steered clear of the Huine issue, wondered aloud if she should vote Mac or Lottie. Went for Mac who had more votes of the two at the time when Huine was rapidly gaining more votes. Extremely dubious vote - especially if we take into account that at least to me at this point Huine didn't seem like a "lost case" at all.

Inzil -> Macalaure 5

"Because I distrust Lottie, and to a lesser extent, Pitch." Huh? Basically implied without straight up saying so that he would prefer not to lynch Huinesoron. The placement of this vote is pretty dodgy, but Inzil's last minute "Watch Huey be a wolf. :rolleyes:" (after the lynch was resolved but the deadline had not come yet) has a very innocent ring to me.

...

Boro -> Mac 6

Claims to have crossposted, I'm not sure with quite how many votes. Still, clearly a vote that was - intentionally or unintentionally - towards saving Huinesoron. Therefore, deserves scrutiny.

Sally, Zil, and Boro all post at essentially the same time, especially given that Boro's vote is crossposted. She takes a much harder line on Sally and Zil, but acknowledges that Boro's vote "deserves scrutiny" as well.

Can I start giving paranoid wolf awards? :p YesterDay Mac and Brinn for thinking they're being framed by the Rikae kill, toDay Sally and Inzil being convinced they're done for. None of that looks very innocent to me.

Sally looks very furry to me right now. She did before, her vote was the worst, and her apologetic attitude toDay is not helping her cause at all. Fishy fishy lupine fish.

Here, Lommy is responding to Zil, and brings up Sally, linking them as both being late Mac users. She does not mention Boro here, though I believe she responds to his calling votes against her "throw-away" later in that post.

Bear watching

...

Boro - oscillating between weird Boro and normal Boro in this game. The glimpses of normal Boro I have seen have been mostly very reassuring to me, but his yesterDay's vote makes me more wary of him again.

...

Bear even more watching (trying to differentiate here because I realised I put like 80% of the village in the same category)

...

Would seriously consider quarantining

Zil - I used to think him quite innocent, and also was reluctant to join the chorus of lowkey Zil suspicion which seemed to be based on nothing more than the usual kneejerk "suspicious vibe" that always surrounds him - as I said, he's generally someone who's quite easy to get lynched so it makes sense for wolves to keep him on a suspicion list. But he's making me very uneasy now with his dodgy vote yesterDay, his fatalistic attitude about getting lynched toDay, and being fixated only on a few villagers (as someone said, convenient if he's a wolf thinking he's getting the axe).

Mac - okay, I hate to say this, but he has started to seem a lot more innocent to me. :D Like, my gut feeling is a lot better, but my logic still cannot fathom why innocent Mac would have acted the way he did yesterDay. Greenie summarised this quite well in her #666.

Sally - Eeevil cupcake. Eeeevil. Has been suspiciously safe in her choices since the beginning, tried to save Huine yesterDay, toDay first seemed to have given up and now is trying to convince people she'd have bussed a fellow!Huine. There's nothing innocent in this mix. Certainly my main suspect at the moment.

Here, Lommy puts Boro two full suspicion categories above Sally and Zil, saying only that his vote makes her "more wary of him". She is not really suspecting Boro at all, placing him in the company of me, Kath, Lhuna, and Rune - largely people who didn't vote for either Huin or Mac - even though he should be just as suspicious as Zil and Sally, since he did exactly the same thing they did.

But if it comforts you, I still suspect Sally more and I'm not sure two wolves would have done the same fishy packmate-saving move with similarly incriminating timing.

So just as a statement: I'd prefer to lynch Sally toDay because the evidence against her is pretty overwhelming, but I'm not opposed to Zil or Mac.

Responding to Zil again. Lommy isn't considering Boro as an option at all, and isn't including him in the group of late Mac voters. She continues to push Sally over Zil.

It is possible but why is it *likely*, Sally? Even if you were innocent yourself, you should have no idea about Zil. Addendum: oh, so this is just about maths? Not a very strong argument, given that maths doesn't take into account that you both voted to save a known wolf.

Here she is asking why Sally doesn't think it likely that she and Zil are wolves. Again, she doesn't mention that Boro also did the same thing, which actually would have strengthened Lommy's argument: one in three is more statistically likely than one in two.

I voted Mac before no one even half seriously suggested Huey was a vote candidate. The bandwagon against him came totally out of the blue for me. Therefore, my vote was in no way related to Huey. While Sally, yourself, and a few others voted Mac after Huey as a possible vote candidate. I don't see how does this not make you more likely wolves?? Of course, my vote doesn't make me innocent or you guys' votes don't make you guilty (case in point: Sally), but I was talking about probabilities. It is more probable for a vote that put someone else ahead of a known wolf to be a wolf's vote than for an average vote to be a wolf's vote. I understand if you disagree with my suspicion, but I don't understand if you disagree with the logical principle behind it.

This was toDay, responding to Zil's comment that Lommy also voted for Mac. Here she says that "Sally, yourself [Zil], and a few others voted Mac after Huey as a possible vote candidate." What I find interesting is that the few others is actually just Boro. Unless you count Shasta, which I don't.

In her very first post after Huin was quarantined, Lommy said that Boro's vote deserves scrutiny, but then proceeds to not mention it at all when talking about how the group of late Mac voters are suspicious. She only brings it up again in a list, where she places Boro in the second-best category but claims his vote makes her wary. Lommy strongly pushed suspicion of that group of people, while completely ignoring the third person in the group. If Lommy and Boro are packmates, this would have been Lommy pushing suspicion for votes like Boro's exclusively onto innocents (or an innocent and a wolf who was already under suspicion, if Zil is evil) who happened to vote the same way Boro did. If this strategy works, we would have lynched Sally yesterDay, Zil toDay if we still wanted to pursue that line of questioning, and we probably would have gotten distracted by something else long before we got around to Boro. This would be a great strategy for the wolves! I suspect that Lommy and Boro are packmates, and I would absolutely be willing to vote for one of them toDay.

Inziladun

05-10-2020, 07:08 PM

If this strategy works, we would have lynched Sally yesterDay, Zil toDay if we still wanted to pursue that line of questioning, and we probably would have gotten distracted by something else long before we got around to Boro. This would be a great strategy for the wolves! I suspect that Lommy and Boro are packmates, and I would absolutely be willing to vote for one of them toDay.

Posting from my phone is cumbersome, but I think this makes good sense. I would be tempted to add Brinn as a potential packmate also.

Loslote

05-10-2020, 07:31 PM

Posting from my phone is cumbersome, but I think this makes good sense. I would be tempted to add Brinn as a potential packmate also.

If Brinn is a wolf in a pack with Lommy and Boro, she's being very bold about defending them. I guess I could see it as a possibility.

Eönwë

05-11-2020, 12:02 AM

Ok, well it looks like not much has happened since I left.

I will hopefully manage to be in the last hour or so before the deadline.

Currently, my thoughts are:

I'm most interested in voting for Zil, Boro, or Lommy. Based on reasons I've stated on previous Days, plus Lommy's actions yesterDay and the interaction between the three, I suspect that there are at least two Infectors in this group.

I'm still suspicious of Lalaith and Rune, and I suspect that at that there is at least one Infector in that pair.

I'm feeling better about THE Ka now that it turns out Mac was an innocent.

I'm a little concerned at how well Greenie and Kath have been flying under my radar.

I'm still feeling mostly good about Pitch, Shasta, Lhuna, Lottie, and Brinn, but a few of them have said things that made me raise my eyebrows (and there is the possible Pitch-Hui link mentioned in my previous post) and I think it might be time for me to make sure I'm not giving people free passes based on earlier innocent-looking actions.

edit: fixed a sentence

Shastanis Althreduin

05-11-2020, 04:11 AM

Sorta at a loss after yesterday. I was very much expecting Sally to be a wolf.

The reason I decided I was ultimately not gonna fight to not lynch her was Lommy's bit about the wolves ultimately not needing to kill her; I'm used to Hunters that have a bit added to their role, where they can beat a single wolf 1-on-1 at the end of the game. That isn't present here, but I didn't think about it till fairly late.

Thinlómien

05-11-2020, 05:01 AM

And again, it's mid-game, I don't think it's too bold for an Infector (in this case Lommy) to have gone all-out on the Sally quarantining. Since she's already in the public eye as suspicious, she doesn't have much to lose by being in the spotlight, and the end result is that a non-wolf got lynched. YesterDay was Day3, so scarcely mid-game in this big village. Also I don't think I have been widely suspected until toDay. You're looking at toDay's situation to make sense of yesterDay, and it doesn't add up.

Lottie - yes I didn't focus on Boro's vote despite it being similar to Sally and Zil's. That's because I thought Sally and Zil looked suspicious for other things as well, while for Boro the vote was more or less the only suspicious thing about him. I don't see why this is weird. If someone that overall seems innocent to you does something dodgy, I think it's natural to move them into an unsure category in your head (as I did with Boro yesterDay). While if someone you already consider dodgy does something dodgy, it's red flags time (that was me about Sally yesterDay, and to a lesser degree about Inzil).

I'm really torn about Inzil at the moment. I still don't like his vote from the Day before yesterDay, and I don't like his crusade against me toDay because granted I made myself a very easy target yesterDay. But I am aware there's still a chance he's a misguided innocent (a position I can scarcely judge) and in suspecting him I'm throwing myself into an interesting adventure called tunnel vision, part three.

Eönwë's suspicion of me feels very opportunistic to me, while Pitchwife and Lottie's more organic and understandable. Granted, this might be partly because I have other reasons to think Lottie and Pitch innocent, but nothing in particular for Eönwë.

Now I'm off to look at Legate's posts. Meanwhile you guys please think about the fact that only the wolves could have known that Sally was innocent yesterDay. I'm sure that's carrying echoes into toDay in terms of bashing people who genuinely thought Sally was a wolf.

Lalaith

05-11-2020, 05:05 AM

Sorta at a loss after yesterday. I was very much expecting Sally to be a wolf.

The reason I decided I was ultimately not gonna fight to not lynch her was Lommy's bit about the wolves ultimately not needing to kill her;

That is one whole bunch of negatives. I'm at a loss to make sense of it....

A Little Green

05-11-2020, 05:18 AM

Okay so further proof of my utter cluelessness in this game – yesterDay I developed a theory that maybe Mac’s suicidal tendencies were due to him being the Hunter who had pegged a wolf and wanted to be offed. Looks like it’s time for another serious rethink. :rolleyes:

Regarding the Legate kill, I think it’s possible he was picked just because more or less everyone agreed he was innocent. That said, I don’t think wolves can ever afford to kill someone just for that when there’s a Seer still on the loose. Our Seer will have had four dreams by now. Granted, some of those s/he dreamed may have died already, but even so, it’s a growing risk for the pack and I don’t think they can entirely ignore it. In light of that, this quote from Legate struck me -

Okay, one thing is (nearly?) for sure - the votes in Sallywagon can't all come from Wolves. (I mean technically... that would be super bold... but probably they wouldn't yet do something like that! Besides if it was these four, then they'd have no reason to.)
Could this have been a possible reason why Legate was killed? This could have looked like a slip from a Seer-Legate who knew Sally wasn’t a wolf.

You know what?
I'm not going to hold out to try to save myself.

++Brinn

For being Rikae's Day 1 vote, for getting by since, and because the QT baddies are daring us.

Do the same, vote for someone else, or me,
I thought this was noteworthy. While I agree that Brinn still merits looking at (I’m not comfortable with the free-ish pass she is getting lately), Inzil effectively going “que sera sera, lynch me if you like” rubs me the wrong way. Could be Wolfziladun trying a bit too hard not to appear defensive – especially in comparison to Sally, who was being suspected for similar reasons and was definitely acting defensive.

Btw what I just said about self-exoneration and calculated votes also applies to Eönwë's reaction to me this morning. "I drove the last nail into Huiwolf's coffin, how dare you suspect me?" But you had to vote at a point when your vote would likely be decisive, and if you knew that Mac would come up innocent if lynched, voting Hui was your only viable option. 'looks like it's going to have to be...' = 'I don't like it, but I have no choice'?
I’ve been inclined to think Eonwe rather innocent than not so far, but this is a good point.

Bring the butter, my body is ready!
:eek:

++Sally

Really don't like the idea of a panic bandwagon against me. If you're the hunter, happy killing.

If you're a wolf, thanks for giving me 500 heart attacks, but I'd consider us even considering the trick I pulled on you previously.
Boro changes his mind and votes sally in the interest of self preservation. Why the change of mind here, Boro? I know you cross posted but I don't think you were actually in danger at this point. The majority of the village had voted and sally was already well in the lead with votes.
I agree with Kath here – this was strange. Boro does seem more than a little paranoid here, essentially voting Sally to prevent a panic bandwagon against himself even though he didn’t look like a very likely lynch candidate at this point. Mind you, going after people who seem “paranoid” hasn’t served me very well in this game :rolleyes:

1. Inzil I need to get a better read on, but there's a lot to be answered for with your defense yesterday. I never pegged you as a "roll over" type, until yesterday

2. Can we trust the QT now? Please. But I swear if they give us Brinn again I'm going to lose it.

2. 3/4ths of you are as suspicious as suspicion can be.

3. I'm starting to get a clearer picture, and imagining a pack of Lhuna, Lottie and Inzil. An unknown 4th at the moment, but I'm starting with you 3.

My voting may have been crap, but Lhuna's yours is completely clean since Day 1. Alarm is raised.

Lottie you managed to convince the hunter to change her choice in the last second and I have no idea why.'
Hm. I agree with 1, and with that Lhuna deserves a closer look and Inzil is a very possible wolf, but the rest of this I either disagree with or find fishy or both. Regarding the QT – yes, we can trust that the QT vote is benign; but no, we can’t trust that it’s any more likely to be correct than that of any other innocent, non-Seer person. Following the QT’s lead would give a very easy alibi for a wolf to vote for an innocent without raising too many eyebrows, so no, even with an innocent-majority QT I don’t really trust anyone who places too much weight on what the QT decide.

Regarding Lottie – that last point is off. Regardless of Lottie’s role, it would have been in her interest to try to convince Sally to change her pick. I’d have been stupefied if she hadn’t tried. Regarding Inzil – while I agree that he is one of the most suspicious people in this village, I think it would be very convenient for a Borowolf to say so if they were fellows. Inzil is a fairly possible lynchee either toDay or some other day soon, so an easy candidate for wolf-on-wolf bussing. Especially for a fellow who, like him, voted for Mac in a way that could have been an attempt to save Huin.

If I was a wolf, I would have been trying an awful lot harder to swing the vote Zil's direction, because I would have known for sure that Sally actually was the Hunter, and there would have been no motivation for me to lynch her. I voted for her because I thought there was an actual chance she was a wolf. If I really wanted to vote somewhere else, I could have pushed for Zil, who had also been suspected. In my opinion, the fact that there was no coherent alternative at all should speak to the idea that the people in Sally's crosshairs were not evil.
Despite my general dislike for statements that start with "if I was a wolf", Lottie makes a good point here – the wolves would have known Sally’s claim was genuine, and a wolf thinking they were under fire from the Hunter would have had a motive to try and lynch someone else.

WELLLlllllllll I got what I wanted...

...but it turned out not to be what I wanted after all. I have gone through a full cycle of *despairing laughter* -> what use is logic in werewolf when it's always wrong -> I should really have been the cobbler -> "hey at least I won't have to wonder about Mac and Sally for the rest of the game" overNight and now I'm trying to recover and be useful toDay. I mean what else can you do?

But yes, looks like yesterDay wasn't my brightest moment. Nor the Day before... But I can hardly do worse toDay - unless I decide to vote the seer and press for their lynch.
This makes me feel somewhat better about Lommy – though I might be biased since I’ve been wrong in much the same way about much the same people, so I can kind of see how that’s entirely possible.

I don't think a Lommy-wolf would be so bold to lead the charge against Sally. It's more likely to me that a wolf (or two) just went with the flow because with seven votes against Sally post-hunter reveal, that would've been a much easier way to hide. The fact that Inzil was so keen to jump on her doesn't make me feel any better of him. I do not trust him one bit.
This was my first impression, too. I could see a Lommywolf voting for Sally before the reveal, then consciously pushing for a Sally lynch regardless; but Lommy’s bloodlust (I love this mental image btw!) was a bit too open for this read to seem plausible for me. I think a Lommywolf would have made the same arguments for a Sally lynch after the reveal, but made them in a way that looked more balanced and reasonable rather than frantic and bloodlusty.

Shasta also absolutely not believing sally. But he and Lommy have very different opinions on how to go about this. Lommy feels lynching sally either rids the village of a wolf pretending to be the Hunter, or means the Hunter can use their power and hopefully catch a wolf. Shasta feels it should be left to the Night. I think Shasta's version is safer for the village. Lommy's is high risk which she did admit herself, but felt it was early enough in the game that losing an innocent wouldn't be so bad. In terms of numbers, perhaps she's right, but I still think leaving the Hunter to the Night would have been better. Especially as if the Hunter was killed at night, and took down an innocent, then at least in the Day there might have been a chance of lynching a wolf, and so it would have been one wolf and two innocents dead, rather than now what we have with three innocents dead.
Look, I know it's a question of playing styles, but I think ww is the most fun when all the special roles get to do their thing, even if it's less advantageous for the side I'm playing in. Maybe mathematically Sally had higher chances of hitting an innocent. But I thought that it would be fun to give her the option, and we could live with the consequences. Maybe the break from ww made me take this game less seriously. Maybe I'm a bit of a cobbler, then. But I'm certainly not a wolf.
Regarding this whole issue – I think whether or not to lynch a self-proclaimed Hunter is very much a question of playing style and strategy, and in itself doesn’t give us much about a player’s alignment. Lommy’s explanation here sounds like something she would think regardless of role. The only bit rubbing me the wrong way is the last bit. “I’m certainly not a wolf” won’t convince anyone, even if true.

I'm trying not to get annoyed, because frankly I deserve to be judged for yesterDay, but can y'all step down from your high horses for a sec, however deserved your seating up there? The only people who could have known Sally was the real hunter were the wolves. None of us others knew that. We had to weigh her claim and decide what to think of it. A lot of us had the unfortunate starting point that we were already suspicious of Sally for one reason or another. Claiming to be the hunter is quite a good wolvish lynch prevention tactic because a) the real hunter might be reluctant to challenge because it greatly decreases their chance to get to use their special ability and b) conversely, flushing the real hunter out is a big favour to the wolves, it's like flagging a landmine for them. So I would certainly take a hunter claim with a bigger pinch of salt than say a seer claim.
I think Lommy is making sense here, too.

Since I suspect both Zil and Lommy, I'm very inclined to see Zil's attack on Lommy toDay as a way to distance them from each other. It's only a matter of time before Zil gets quarantined (and rightly so, IMO - he's been suspicious throughout), and it might be enough to make her look better in hindsight (after all, it seems bold for a wolf to go after one of their own so strongly and before anyone else, right?). On the other hand, if Lommy is lynched toDay, then it looks like Zil spearheaded the attack, so it makes him look good in retrospect.

Maybe my judgement is clouded because I'm already convinced that Zil is evil and almost convinced that Lommy is too, but that's the feeling I'm getting here.
Hm. Definitely a possibility – if Lommy is a wolf, the pack would have been prepared for her to be under fire toDay for her role in lynching Sally. That said, the wolves would have been prepared for this even if Lommy isn’t one of them. Inzil starting the Day with a straight-up case against Lommy looks somewhat rehearsed, like something he (or his pack) had decided to go for in advance. And even if Lommy is innocent, it makes sense for Inzil to be the one of the pack to go most heavily after her – as he’s one of the most suspected people around, him being implicated in an orchestrated lynch of innocent Lommy wouldn’t really matter that much. I could see him and his pack deciding that he’s pretty much a goner but at least he could try to stick around for one more Day by getting Lommy lynched first.

I want to have another look at Legate's posts at some point to check for possible "Seer clues", as well as another look at a few players we haven't really focused on. It's entirely possible we're dealing with a wolf pack of, say, THE Ka, Kath, Rune and Lalaith, happily watching from the sidelines as louder and more chaotic players lynch each other.

Lalaith

05-11-2020, 05:20 AM

Kath
Lalaith changes her mind and votes sally - can I ask what caused the change, Lal?
For the same reason Legate did (we actually cross-posted) I got freaked out by the fact she didn't say who she was hunting. Up til then I'd been waiting on an agreed alternative to sally.
Coulda, woulda, shoulda.....Shoulda just voted earlier for Eonwe. Not sure if it would have helped though. Zil was coming up as an alternative with a lot of people but I didn't really feel enthused by that alternative bandwaggon - I felt similar about him as I had about Mac - couldn't quite see what all the fuss and suspicion was about.

Might go back and have another look at him toDay to try to get my head round the continuing Zil suspicion, if I have time.
Today I am mostly feeling good about Pitch and Rune. Although Pitch - at the risk of sounding a hypocrite, why didn't you vote Eonwe earlier? Greenie I have had good feelings about all game but I need to check to see if anything happened yesterDay to change that.

Thinlómien

05-11-2020, 06:14 AM

Day1

Notable that he was in the middle of the fake votes plan contoversy. Would the wolves think a seer would stick his head out like that? I wouldn't; but then again, Legate himself didn't seem to consider his own actions very controversial, so maybe he would have. Also I wouldn't put it past the wolves to have mostly concentrated on later Days. Anyway, something worth noting.

Made this absolutely silly joke early on Day1, singling out Zil:
Those who are here now are fairly active already, but hey, we can't all be Wolves, right? Or... *dun dun dun dun* (No, that's not a pun on Inziladun. OR IS IT?)which I wouldn't read much into unless his later suspicions are consistent with that.

List #88 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=723257&postcount=88). Personally I think most potential seerish (ie clearly saying either innocent or guilty) phrasing is:

Lottie has raised some eyebrows, but it seems to me like she acts the way innocent Lottie would.

But of course, a lot of people hadn't posted very much yet when he made the list, so as an apparent seer his "dream" could have been someone he simply didn't get to comment yet. Such as Rune, who he hoped would post and then once he did, he says

Otherwise... I have good feelings about Rune, especially his post #117 seems genuinely innocentish to me.

Interestingly enough, Inzil of whom he made the jokey wolf remark early on Day1 doesn't appear on Legate's list at all.

About Lalaith his first comment upon her appearance was
That was as fishy first post as they go. "Everyone is a Wolf, hint hint not me."Which I guess in an alternate unierse could have been Legateseer jumping on dreamt wolf Lalaith as soon as she appears on the thread.

Fake voted Kitanna. If the wolves thought he'd been the seer, would they have assumed he'd have voted a dreamt wolf if he had one? I would think that more plausible than not.

Made a second list #226 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=723408&postcount=226). The one thing that stands out to me is in his "innocent" zone this one:Marx - I mean, Rune - is to the point, and I sense no falsehood in his tone. Okay now.The second time he makes a vague point for Rune's innocence, and Rune is the only person he either trusts or suspects about whom he is 100% consistent the whole Day.

This makes me feel better about Rune. If the wolves thought Legate was the seer, they most likely thought he had dreamt of innocent!Rune on Night1.

Keeps suspecting Kit and Brinn, voted Brinn.

Day2

Is rather vocal about that knowing Brinn's role would be very helpful (already mentioned this the Day before).

(Jokingly??) suspects Pitch for wanting to be a fly on the wall in the QT with Rikae and G55.

Thinks there's at least one wolf among "Lhuna, Boro, Shasta, Kitanna, Greenie and/or Eönwë (and/or Lalaith)" but doesn't quite reach a conclusion which one.

Calls Zil and Pitch "suspicious as Morgoth wearing a tutu under the Two Tree" for talking about Kit. Still "on the verge" about Kitanna, but possibly changed his mind enough for it to look like a seer dream...?

Bad vibes about Lottie, and to a lesser degree, about Huinesoron.

Another list #455 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=723759&postcount=455). Suspects Huine, Lottie, Brinn, Lommy, Kitanna, Zil, Mac and Greenie. Considers Rune (again), Kath, THE Ka and Shasta innocent.

Starts the Huine wagon and tries to convince people to join him. Very bold if he had indeed been the seer, but I guess the wolves couldn't discount that option.

(Meanwhile, doesn't want to take a stance on Lommy vs Mac, and keeps suspecting Brinn. Mildly suspects Lottie and Greenie too.)

Presumed Legate-seer dreams: Night1 innocent Rune and Night2 guilty Huine?

Day3

Analyses the previous Day's voting in #632 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=724015&postcount=632), but doesn't conclude much.

Mild to middle grade suspicion towards: Boro, Zil, Brinn, Sally, Lhuna, Greenie.

Mild to middle grade trust towards: Kath, Pitch, Shasta.

Another list which I'm gonna quote because it's just names:

Wary of:
Greenie
Lhuna
Inzil
Boro
Brinniel
Eönwë

Thought guilty earlier but think better now:
Lottie

Flip-floppy about:

Thinlómien
Sally
Lalaith
Macalaure

Nothing particular on:
Pitchwife
THE Ka

Feeling good about:
Kath
Shasta
Rune

States he would prefer to vote Brinn, Boro or Eönwë.

Lots of frantic posting in the Sally mess. Did not trust Sally's reveal and voted her. Parting shot:

Topic for the next Day: "Who among those who abstained from voting (or voted when it matters no more) are Wolves, et cetera."

Hmm. Night3 seer!Legate dream? Innocent Kath or innocent Shasta, but pretty impossible to say which. Possibly innocent Lottie with how she go her own category on the list, but would the wolves think the seer to draw attention to their dream like that?

~*~

Conclusions: If the wolves killed Legate for looking like the seer (and what else are they looking for than the seer?) I'm 99% sure Rune is innocent (unless the wolves somehow read Legate's posts in an absolutely different light than I just did, but Legate's consistent trust in Rune really stands out on reread).

Sadly that's the only conclusion I'm confident about. Also looks like they could have thought he dreamt of wolf!Huine, which doesn't help us very much.

Lastly, I feel a little better about Shasta, Kath, and Lottie, but I'm hesitant to say Legate's death exonerates them all.

A curious addendum? How Brinn stands out. Legate suspected her quite consistently, although not with a seerish conviction perhaps. More interesting is how he said it would be useful to know Brinn's role (both end of Day1 and early Day2) and went on suspecting her. Would a wolf!Brinn have interepreted this as seer!Legate wanting to dream of her and doing so, but for some reason concentrating primarily on other suspects (Huine and Sally) on the next Days, perhaps hoping he can come out in the near future with knowledge of wolf!Brinn and a few other dreams? I mean, from my pov, if Legate was a seer, Huinewolf looks like the most likely Night2 dream, but would paranoid ;) Brinnwolf think otherwise? Perhaps?

edit: xed with all three previous posts

Inziladun

05-11-2020, 06:39 AM

Annoyed innocent here or calculated wolf? I think the self-sacrificial attitude does actually make me feel a bit better about him, but then I'm interested to know what he felt about sally, as this did put Brinn at 2 votes while sally already had 4, and at the time he was the only other lynch candidate with votes. Also, voting for sally would have been him actually working to save himself whereas the vote for Brinn was by no means putting himself safe.

It seemed the suspicion on Sally was largely based on her place on the Macwagon. My vote was similarly placed, and I saw no other reason to be worried about her.

It's unlikely that it'll go that badly for us, especially since we still have the Seer, but it is important because it means that we're definitely in the mid-game now, which (at least, based on my previous games) means that we're more likely to see more complex plays from the wolves - maybe more wolf-on-wolf (since now when one dies they'll have had a lot of Days to implicate others), maybe more bluffs, more aggression, etc. So just something to watch out for.

This strikes me as "saying something without really saying anything". Dodgy.

Just some initial thoughts about everyone:

Lommy: Like I said, I don't think a wolf would be bold enough to lead the charge like she did. If innocent, she certainly would be an easy target for the wolves toDay.

First, I think a Lommywolf could easily afford to be aggressive there. There are still four wolves. And knowing that if Sally was really the Hunter, her odds of targeting an innocent were good.

Boromir88

05-11-2020, 07:07 AM

I'm going to be occupied for most of the day, but will be back before DL.

For the QT. I would vote +-Lhuna

Ok, it stinks when your time zone doesn't allow you to be around when all the insanity unfolds. Still she made 2 safe votes. Not safe because of the TIME, but safe because of the people she suspects.

She mentions Huey's slip, but doesn't follow up on it.

1st was a self-vote.

2nd was a flimsy vote for Lommy that she still hasn't explained.

Boro changes his mind and votes sally in the interest of self preservation. Why the change of mind here, Boro? I know you cross posted but I don't think you were actually in danger at this point. The majority of the village had voted and sally was already well in the lead with votes.~Kath

I agree with Kath here – this was strange. Boro does seem more than a little paranoid here, essentially voting Sally to prevent a panic bandwagon against himself even though he didn’t look like a very likely lynch candidate at this point. Mind you, going after people who seem “paranoid” hasn’t served me very well in this game~Greenie

When I voted, Lottie was the 5th vote for sally. Not including mine, 8 people still had to vote. Lottie, Legate, and to some degree sally, Mac, Brinn, Greenie had stated suspicions on me. Pardon me for worrying a panic-wagon of "don't lynch the hunter" went towards me in the last 5 minutes, after G55's "reveal" had everyone rushing to save her except for Kit.

Inziladun

05-11-2020, 07:11 AM

I think a Lommywolf would have made the same arguments for a Sally lynch after the reveal, but made them in a way that looked more balanced and reasonable rather than frantic and bloodlusty.

I don't see it that way. The only innocent reason for such surety was if SeerLommy knew of a Sallywolf, which plainly is not the case.

Inzil starting the Day with a straight-up case against Lommy looks somewhat rehearsed, like something he (or his pack) had decided to go for in advance.

Actually, that's how I see Lommy beginning the case against Sally.

x/d with Boro

Thinlómien

05-11-2020, 07:16 AM

I don't see it that way. The only innocent reason for such surety was if SeerLommy knew of a Sallywolf, which plainly is not the case. Are you saying an ordo cannot become 90% convinced of someone's guilt just based on their posting? Moreover, a fellow innocent person's guilt?

A Little Green

05-11-2020, 07:47 AM

Initial thoughts for toDay:

Leaning innocent:

Lottie – multiple reasons, but particularly her instrumental part in lynching Huinwolf as well as very vocally agreeing with him and pointing it out herself on Day 1. Doesn't look like a plausible wolf pair.

Pitch – I still think Huinwolf wouldn’t have pushed the attention on the GLP and especially Pitch’s role within it so heavily if it implicated a packmate.

Lalaith – Might need to reconsider, but I do think it’s a good sign that she voted for Huinwolf even though she had previously mentioned feeling uneasy about Mac and so would have had a perfectly valid alibi for not bussing a packmate.

Shasta – Still mostly gut feeling combined with his effort to subtly protect Kitanna in a way that wouldn’t necessarily occur to a wolf.

Rune – Haven’t seen anything to worry me so far, and Lommy’s Legatolysis (which sounds like a medical condition btw) brings up a good point about how if the wolves killed Legate for looking like the Seer then Rune most likely isn’t one of them.

Could be anything:

Lommy – On the fence about her. Has a pretty horrible track record so far (though I’m not really in a position to judge anyone on that :rolleyes:), but I think an evil Lommy would have been smoother and less bloodlusty about trying to get Sally lynched. (As she pointed out herself, a wolf would have known Sally was telling the truth and consequently would have known exactly how bad an all-out attack on her would look in retrospect.) On the other hand, I still think she seemed somewhat more jumpy than usual earlier in the game, and her mutual suspicion with Huinwolf could easily have been wolf-on-wolf.

Kath – I still have worryingly little read on her considering how active she’s been. Has stayed out of the spotlight and the big controversies, and barely interacted with Huinwolf.

Lhuna – On the fence about her too. Her voting record doesn’t tell us much; admittedly yesterDay’s no vote was due to RL and understandable, but Day 1 she voted for herself which gives us literally nothing, and Day 2 she voted for Lommy for reasons that still aren’t entirely clear to me. There was also the bit where she pointed out Huinwolf’s slip when no one else did but then didn’t follow up on it, which I still think could be a possible indication of guilt (a wolf would be more likely to notice a wolf slip because she’d know that’s what it was).

Eonwe – I get a general good vibe from him, but don’t really trust vibes anymore. He was very careful and diplomatic especially earlier on. Cast the deciding vote on Huinwolf; though as Pitch pointed out, if he knew he was casting the deciding vote, I could see an Eönwölf bussing a packmate knowing that the alternative would leave him looking pretty bad.

THE Ka – Like Kath, has carefully stayed out of the spotlight and the big controversies while contributing actively. Barely interacted with Huin. I don’t like how she seconded Inzil bringing up Kitanna’s slip and thus contributed to outing the Ranger but then didn’t take part in the ensuing discussion about it – and consequently, isn’t really mentioned when that whole debacle is discussed. Admittedly if Inzil is as guilty as he looks, Ka more than likely isn’t; for two wolves to be the first to poke at a likely Gifted would be brazen in a way I don’t think Inzil and Ka would be.

Leaning guilty:

Inzil – Interactions with Huinwolf basically amount to mutual suspicion without votes, and then Inzil voting for Mac over Huin at a fairly crucial moment. First reacts to this with fatalistic “I know this incriminates me!”, then later when both he and Sally are being suspected for their vote placements as well as following paranoia and defensiveness, he drops this tone and basically tells the village to lynch him if they want. Then starts toDay with an all-out attack on Lommy that looks somewhat rehearsed to me (regardless of Lommy’s role).

Brinn – I’m still not comfortable with her. Huinwolf defended her very vocally; she voted for Huin on Day 2 at a fairly crucial point which makes her look better. Admittedly she had been pretty heavily suspected herself, so possibly thought she couldn’t afford to visibly save a packmate people were already connecting her to. Enough has been said about her (especially earlier) concern with keeping her hands clean and overt focus on how the Rikae kill is connected to herself. I’d like to reread her posts from yesterDay and toDay to check what she’s been doing since, as she’s largely disappeared from the public eye aside from those cyptic votes from the QT.

Boro – I find him increasingly worrying. Lightly suspected by Huinwolf while saying he doesn't want to lynch Huin and voting for Mac over him at a fairly crucial time. Admittedly I’m not sure if a Borowolf would be this open about it. Additionally, I’m not comfortable about how he’s repeatedly suggesting QT-related plans that don’t make sense to me from an innocent POV (though admittedly complex ploys and strategies aren't really my strong point so it's possible I'm just missing something) – first when we had an evil-majority QT he suggested bringing the pre-votes back which would have been very useful for the evil QT, then when questioned about this he said something along the lines of wanting to mess with them; then toDay he’s suggesting we start to trust the QT vote now that they have an innocent majority, which doesn’t make sense to me either (other than as an easy way of justifying a vote that doesn’t incriminate himself). Also not sure what to make of his voting for Sally to save himself from a last-minute panic bandwagon against himself that, frankly, didn’t look at all likely.

Kath

05-11-2020, 08:30 AM

If it had been me, there's no way I'd have said who I'd really picked. I'd have picked a name out of thin air.
Why is that Inzil? In this situation, although sally didn't specifically put a name out there until very late on, her vote did at least indicate which way she was planning to go with it.

Well at least the baddies are no longer in the majority on the QT.
That really will be interesting in terms of Brinn. We haven't really been able to tell whether it's the baddies pushing that name or not the past two Days, whereas toDay the innocents definitely control the vote.

Are you kidding me? Sally's suspicions were all based on gut feeling alone, and I guess my insisting that I was not a wolf convinced her. But you know what I was thinking all last Night? "Well, there's no way I'll be alive in the Morning. The wolves are going to think I was trying to hint that I was Gifted. They'll definitely kill me toNight." I was very surprised when I saw that I was still alive, and I half thought, "maybe the wolves are going to try to prod a little, see if they can figure out if I was Gifted hinting or not." But I really didn't think anyone was going to be this blatant about it.
There must have been a good reason for the wolves to go for Legate last Night because actually I largely agree with this in terms of possible wolf thoughts. Lottie's choice to vote for sally even though she knew she was one of sally's top suspects I think would have made it hard for them to believe she was the Seer though. That would have been one hell of a risk for her to take.

Lommy: Like I said, I don't think a wolf would be bold enough to lead the charge like she did. If innocent, she certainly would be an easy target for the wolves toDay.
Actually, from what Lommy has said herself about her attitude towards the game, I could absolutely see a Lommywolf leading the charge and being entirely willing to take all the flack for it the following Day. What a great way to pull suspicion onto pretty much just one person. Even if she's lynched, if all the discussion has revolved around her and her actions at the end of yesterDay, it would surely leave fewer clues as to the identity of her fellow wolves.

Amidst all this, I really would like to hear more from Lhuna. I know timezones are a pain, but my previous suspicion of her for the Kit discussion hasn't gone anywhere.

When I voted, Lottie was the 5th vote for sally. Not including mine, 8 people still had to vote. Lottie, Legate, and to some degree sally, Mac, Brinn, Greenie had stated suspicions on me. Pardon me for worrying a panic-wagon of "don't lynch the hunter" went towards me in the last 5 minutes, after G55's "reveal" had everyone rushing to save her except for Kit.
A lot of people were looking for an alternative to sally here though, and Boro had previously stated he didn't want to lynch the Hunter, and with 8 votes to go another candidate could have garnered votes. Ok, self preservation, but did you actually believe sally?

Thinlómien

05-11-2020, 08:40 AM

Quite universally suspected, Sally made a hunter hint before any voting took place. She said:

Also, lynching me would either be a bad idea or a Very Bad Idea, depending on how my suspicions play out. Either way, you're not lynching a wolf, so maybe look elsewhere? Just saying.

Personally, I think it was blatant enough for anyone to notice, but I think everyone who voted Sally before her actual reveal - apart from myself - either didn't notice it or purposefully ignored it, which is interesting. I would like to hear what THE Ka, Eönwë and Greenie have to say about what they thought of the Sally quote above at the time.

THE Ka -> Sally

Pressed for time and weighed on by RL, casts the first vote on widely suspected Sally. An innocent with a genuine suspicion of Sally would do this, so could a wolf wishing to vote safely. Can't judge.

QT -> Brinn

Whatever is going on here. I guess toDay's qt vote might help - if they for some reason vote for Brinn again I think they know more than we do, and the Brinn vote yesterDay was a wolvish double bluff that's obvious to the quarantined. If they vote for someone else than Brinn toDay, then I don't think we can say much about this vote.

Eönwë -> Sally 2

"Since I have to go now, I worry that if I leave, there might be a bandwaggon for someone I don't think is evil, so, let's make this a thing". Sounds quite genuine to me, which makes me feel a little better abut Eönwë who's otherwise rubbing me the wrong way a lot. Of course, this could be Wolfwë rephrasing "Since I have to go now, I worry that if I leave, there might be a bandwagon for one of my fellow wolves, so, let's make this a thing" - but I'm not sure he would be that open about it.

Kath -> Inzil

"I won't be back now until deadline, and I still find Inzil the most suspicious based on what I said in my earlier post". Hmm. She steers clear of the Sally controversy with this, but to be fair, at this point it was no way clear that "whether we should lynch Sally or not?" would be the main discussion topic. A safe vote that could have started a rival bandwagon, given how many people at least mildly suspected Inzil, but didn't. Interesting.

Greenie -> Sally 3

Says she x'ed with Eönwë's vote for Sally. "As mentioned before, debating between Inzil and Sally - finding out Inzil's role would tell us more, but I'm slightly more certain about Sally whose behaviour today has looked, to use Shasta's word, much too scrambly for an innocent Sally with an unfortunate but accidental vote placement the Day before." I think this vote doesn't tell us very much until we know Zil's role.

Lommy -> Sally 4

I'm not going to discuss my own vote because I feel like both others and myself have done that ad nauseam already. I'll just put my reasoning here: "I'm 90% sure she's a wolf after the latest drama she tried to pull, so why not give her a headstart when I'm not half as convinced about anyone else." By "the latest drama she tried to pull" I mean her hunter hint. I wasn't more specific about it, because I didn't want the "real hunter" to feel too pressured to counter-claim. (Also referred to this a little later when I said "Not buying Sally's theatrics.", in case anyone's wondering.)

Inzil -> Brinn 2

"You know what? I'm not going to hold out to try to save myself. ++Brinn For being Rikae's Day 1 vote, for getting by since, and because the QT baddies are daring us. Do the same, vote for someone else, or me," I really have zero idea what to make of this, but it makes me feel a tiny bit better about Inzil. Wouldn't wolf try to make more sense? Also the comma in the end just leaves me baffled.

After this, Sally revealed for real, saying:

Busy, but I must beg of you....
Hey, don't lynch your hunter!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Possibly notable: She likely crossposted with Brinn saying she's debating between Inzil and Sally.

Reactions:

Pitch trusts her and says he got her hint earlier, a little later defends her too.

Legate is skeptical and asking who is she hunting. Later Legate gets very vocal about repeating the question, heavily distrusting Sally's claim in the process. Also agrees with me (see below) that we can't count on the wolves to reveal Sally's true role for us.

I didn't buy the reveal at all and explained why.

Shasta says he got the hint but isn't buying the claim either, later he adds we shouldn't nonetheless lynch Sally and explains why. (I disagree with this and explain why.)

Boro is frustrated and confused. Later agrees with Shasta that Sally is likely faking but we still shouldn't lynch her.

Lottie believes Sally and says she's happy to vote someone else. Also: "It's too close to the deadline and we have no idea who her pick would be anyway. I'm not voting for Sally." Tries to bring other candidates to the table, namely Zil and Boro.

Rune pops in and asks if he got people's reasons for suspecting Sally right, without saying whether he believes her claim or not - soon adds that lynching Sally is too high stakes for him.

Brinn is unsure/skeptical about the reveal.

Lalaith doesn't say this or that about whether she believes Sally or not, just notes: "Like Legate I want Sally to tell us who she is hunting. So much unanimity on Sally is a bit unsettling."

Mac doesn't trust Sally's reveal but it still makes him hesitant to lynch her.

Sally -> Lottie

"Equal parts suspicion and self-preservation."

Lottie -> Sally 5

Does quite a legate180. The only reason I can see is that Sally didn't tell her hunting target, seemingly because she wasn't around. Vote accompanied about angry shouting that if Sally is the hunter she shouldn't hunt her.

Lalaith -> Sally 6

"Ok fine. Good luck if you're the Hunter Sally. So long if you're not. I'll miss your insouciance either way." I don't really like this vote. As far as I can see, Lalaith didn't particularly suspect Sally - or anyone else besides Legate, anyway, if memory serves.

Legate -> Sally 7

"Her blood be on us and on our children." whatever that means. Stayed extremely skeptical of Sally 'til the end.

Shasta -> Sally 8

"-shrug emoji-" From a person who was pretty loud that we should lynch Sally regardless of her role? Really?

Brinn -> Sally 9

"If she's the hunter, I don't understand why she would not say her pick." Consistent disbelief of Sally. But I have to say that her "quiet and reasonable" stance to the whole Sally debacle could very well easily be fake. Her actions would be very safe for a wolf who has decided offing hunter!Sally is worth the risk.

Rune -> Inzil 2

"meh." Well, he's going with his suspicions, casting a somewhat doomed vote for someone he suspects, rather for an either wolf/hunter lynching whom he considered too big a risk. Makes sense.

Boro -> Sally 10

"Really don't like the idea of a panic bandwagon against me. If you're the hunter, happy killing. If you're a wolf, thanks for giving me 500 heart attacks, but I'd consider us even considering the trick I pulled on you previously." The jumpiness here is a bit eyebrow-raising, but I can't disagree with the general sentiment about what if Sally actually is the hunter, I mean I thought the same myself.

Mac -> Greenie

"Just because. :p"

Pitch -> Eonwe

"Is everybody allowed a throwaway vote once in the game?"

No vote: Lhuna Not much to say about that, but speaking of her: don't look at her vote tally of yesterDay, it has several errors. I noticed because I used it as a basis for this pots while rereading the thread and the votes didn't add up. What I have presented here is the correct voting tally.

Thoughts: I'm not super keen on Lalaith and Shasta's votes, the former voting Sally without even saying whether she believes her or not, the latter voting Sally despite thinking it's a bad idea. Brinn's attitude towards the whole debacle looks super safe, but not necessarily sinister.

I would still like to hear from THE Ka, Greenie and Eönwë whether they caught Sally's hunter hint and what they thought of it.

I am really baffled that there were a lot of people who were either skeptical of or downright against lynching Sally, yet still they failed to bring forth another candidate. There was a lot of suspicion against especially Inzil but also Boro, but these didn't gain momentum. Why? Perhaps a lot of the people looking for alternatives for Sally were actually wolves but they didn't want to bring a fellow to the block when the lynch was going in a nice direction for them* and bringing forward a second innocent lynch candidate who they hdn't suspected very vocally so far seemed like too conspicuous a move?

*barring of course the fact that some wolves might have been scared of lynching the hunter because she might target them, but there were very few people worried about who Sally might actually pick - namely Lottie, Mac and Rune

edit: xed with Greenie and Kath

Lalaith

05-11-2020, 08:49 AM

I am really baffled that there were a lot of people who were either skeptical of or downright against lynching Sally, yet still they failed to bring forth another candidate
Lommy my love - now this is too much. You seem to forget you were stomping all over the thread shouting at us about voting for Sally, we could barely get a word in edgeways!

Inziladun

05-11-2020, 08:55 AM

Are you saying an ordo cannot become 90% convinced of someone's guilt just based on their posting? Moreover, a fellow innocent person's guilt?

No, but I can't see such zealous urging being the product of a mere "90%".

Why is that Inzil? In this situation, although sally didn't specifically put a name out there until very late on, her vote did at least indicate which way she was planning to go with it.

I think it potentially helps the wolves more than the innocents. If they know who the revealed Hunter is looking at, it helps them decide when to make a Night-kill if the Hunter isn't lynched.

That really will be interesting in terms of Brinn. We haven't really been able to tell whether it's the baddies pushing that name or not the past two Days, whereas toDay the innocents definitely control the vote.

The innocents know less than Huey (and by proxy, G55), so their vote could be said to be even more random than the QT has been.

x/d with Lal

Lalaith

05-11-2020, 09:01 AM

Lalaith -> Sally 6

"Ok fine. Good luck if you're the Hunter Sally. So long if you're not. I'll miss your insouciance either way." I don't really like this vote. As far as I can see, Lalaith didn't particularly suspect Sally - or anyone else besides Legate, anyway, if memory serves.

No this is not true and quite careless of you, Lommy. I had in fact talked myself out of suspecting Legate due to his Hui vote and had been highly suspicious of Eonwe since my analysis post of hiim earlier that day.
See my post 792.
So I would rather go Eonwe (from the dodgy behaviour stated in my earlier post) or Boro toDay. Brinn would be acceptable (Second time taunt from QT - really?)
I am still not completely happy with Legate but because of his Huivote I feel a bit better and won't vote for him toDay.
I gave out three different lynch candidates as an alternative to Sally. And I argued with you about what was wrong with having a known innocent who the wolves were too scared to kill. And your reply was at 819 was (in keeping with your general mood) bloodthirsty.

A Little Green

05-11-2020, 09:11 AM

THE Ka

05-11-2020, 09:13 AM

[RL – Sorry for the long bit of silence, helping grieving family is always difficult the second day when shock wears off. I have some more time today so I’ll be catching up further. Thank you everyone for your words, I appreciate all of you. As for the Game, again, regardless of role and what’s happening in our RL let’s keep playing as a sort of solace in the storm.:)[/RL]

Claiming to be the hunter is quite a good wolvish lynch prevention tactic because a) the real hunter might be reluctant to challenge because it greatly decreases their chance to get to use their special ability and b) conversely, flushing the real hunter out is a big favour to the wolves, it's like flagging a landmine for them. So I would certainly take a hunter claim with a bigger pinch of salt than say a seer claim.

Are you echoing Mac’s statement of the wolves trying to get the hunter out of the way early to bag an innocent in the same Day?

Personally I’d take a Seer claim with a greater pinch, especially early game, unless the Seer happened to be extremely lucky and dream of a wolf on a previous Night (even so, that’s really risky as Seer you want to stay in as long as possible). Even if you’re using the ‘wait don’t do it, I’m really the Seer and this is what I know-‘ to try and either sway votes for your pack or just use it as last minute cover as a villager, it won’t keep you concealed for long. Other wolves might just decide to sacrifice you the next Day for being too hot a topic (and making any innocents who supported you guilty of collaboration to others), and if you were a villager and found lying, you could garner a lot of distrust for trying to flush the Seer out and possibly be thought a flustered cobbler.

now that it turns out Mac was an innocent.

My Mac vs. Sally reasoning boiled down to what happened to Mac beforehand. It just seemed so forced as I’ve said before, like the wolves regardless of his innocence or not at that point, found him to be a sort of main distraction as they were trying to figure out gifted roles. He appeared coy and nervous which made it look like he was afraid of being caught due to Rikae appearing innocent, etc. and that was forced without abandon. I figured by being a pothole in the road, it would frustrate a few of them just enough to see who was upset by proximity.

The next Day, I spot Sally and then Zil casually joking in the same manner and poke them over it, asking if we’re going to see a repeat of yesterDay over Mac. Zil eventually gave an answer to other players, but Sally remained distant and coy over it and I dug further into her voting patterns and actions around DL on different days. I even ended up agreeing with Brinn when she pointed out Sally had begun to try and turn the wheel of attention towards the reason behind Mac votes when the majority of us were already becoming convinced it was something taken advantage of and others feeling duped.

I’d feel more duped over my Sally vote, but before knowledge of the hasty hunter reveal it just appeared that she was doing a lot of little to appear involved. Sort of what we saw from Hui in their list posts and a self-assurance that since Zil had appeared to garner enough attention early on yesterDay that it would be a unanimous vote for them. Considering what had happened with Mac until Legate had enough of a hunch to go back and pull Hui’s posts, Sally had come across to me as trying to bide time and pull the same as Hui, hoping Zil would take all direct hits since they were engaging all our questions at that point.

I would like to hear what THE Ka, Eönwë and Greenie have to say about what they thought of the Sally quote above at the time.

I remember reading it in passing first, then again, but at that point it sounded still coy and more like a cobbler move than a villager, which comes across as a flustered wolf that is trying to make us pause enough to try and find reasoning for voting along their suspicions so they can recuperate enough to start back again. In comparison between Sally and Zil at the time and with what had happened with Mac the previous Day still burning in my mind, I didn't want to entertain it and be lead down a rabbit hole. Unfortunately, even fumbled, I wasn't around to read the semi-reveal until after the Day had ended.

Thinlómien

05-11-2020, 09:23 AM

Actually, from what Lommy has said herself about her attitude towards the game, I could absolutely see a Lommywolf leading the charge and being entirely willing to take all the flack for it the following Day. What a great way to pull suspicion onto pretty much just one person. Even if she's lynched, if all the discussion has revolved around her and her actions at the end of yesterDay, it would surely leave fewer clues as to the identity of her fellow wolves.I can't obviously say if I would play this brazen as a wolf too - perhaps, because like I said I feel more laidback about the game in general. On the other hand, it's possible being a wolf and feeling a loyalty to my pack would have made me want to avoid the spotlight.

I mean I certainly don't follow with Kath saying that if I was a wolf and lynched, the discussion being centered on me toDay would give you guys fewer clues about my packmates. On the contrary, it would be a freaking goldmine. In fact, even as it is, if you guys lynch me toDay, I want you to swear to look at the controversy I have created and look who jumped on it in an opportunistic way.

But that being said, I would very much like everyone to look at other people than myself toDay. I'm afraid the whole "is Lommy suspicious for spearheading the Sally lynch" debate is somewhat drowning out everything else.

I'm not the only one who voted yesterDay.

No one but me has even looked at the Legate kill.

Please guys, focus your energies somewhere else, at least a little while. Then you can decide who you vote. Frankly I understand why several of you suspect me, and perhaps I deserve to be lynched for how wrong I've been in this game, but I don't want to be lynched because getting innocent myself lynched would be about the worst conclusion to my track record in this game and I would not forgive myself for messing up that bad without having done anything constructive (that I can see the consequences of so far). I don't want to play anymore unwitting cobbler than I already have.

Lommy my love - now this is too much. You seem to forget you were stomping all over the thread shouting at us about voting for Sally, we could barely get a word in edgeways! Come on. I didn't force anyone to vote Sally yesterDay, yet most people still did. I don't have any magic manipulation powers. Yes, I was arguing quite vocally for lynching Sally. (Side note: so was Legate, a known innocent.) You guys could have let me yell at Sally alone and ignored me and voted for someone else. Yet you didn't. You can blame me for my decision that was bad in hindisight, but you can scarcely blame me for your own. The Sally lynch was not my doing alone, yet that narrative is very much being pushed. Do you know who benefit from that narrative? The wolves. Both the wolves who voted for Sally themselves, and even those who didn't, because it's making me an easy lynch candidate.

Are you saying an ordo cannot become 90% convinced of someone's guilt just based on their posting? Moreover, a fellow innocent person's guilt?
No, but I can't see such zealous urging being the product of a mere "90%".Then be careful how zealously you press lynching me toDay. :p Anyway, I would like to link as a proof a game where I was the ranger and Mac was a wolf (ok not the same as this, as I turned out to be right there) where I was super convinced Mac was a wolf, went on a crusade that made everyone raise their eyebrows, then Mac pulled a fake ranger reveal and out of spite I refused to counter-reveal because I didn't want to give him that snippet of victory and everyone thought I was deranged and I think I was even lynched (and Mac the next Day). Fun times. :D Not my greatest moment, but I have thought of that game a lot recently because it was a great warning for me not to pick fights with Mac (which I nonetheless did in this game). *blows kisses to Mac in the qt if he's reading this*

No this is not true and quite careless of you, Lommy. I had in fact talked myself out of suspecting Legate due to his Hui vote and had been highly suspicious of Eonwe since my analysis post of hiim earlier that day. I remember you backed off the Legate suspicion but I didn't remember you suspected Eönwë. Sorry, my bad about that one. The Boro and Brinn thing though, it really just adds to my general unease about some fairly commonly suspected names floating around in the lynch discussion yesterDay but garnering scarcely any votes. Why did you, for instance, vote Sally and not Eönwë, or Boro or Brinn? Had you done that as soon as you started voicing your misgivings about the Sally lynch, there might have been an actual option to lynch someone else.

I didn't think too much about it, to be completely honest with you. At that point, I was tired and had a headache (an actual one, not just a thinking-too-much-about-werewolf one), was pretty convinced that Sally was a wolf, and in general terms didn't think it likely that a genuine Hunter would want to drop hints at her role as this would effectively mean the wolves would be less likely to kill her, thus making her Gift useless. So with this combination of background factors, it did cross my mind that she was making a hint but I took it with such a big pinch of salt that it didn't really impact my decision-making. Noted.

Are you echoing Mac’s statement of the wolves trying to get the hunter out of the way early to bag an innocent in the same Day?Hm, I'm not sure I understand this question, please rephrase if I answer the wrong thing. I simply thought claiming to be the hunter would be a quite cunning and in character move from a wolf!Sally, because (quoting myself) "a) the real hunter might be reluctant to challenge because it greatly decreases their chance to get to use their special ability and b) conversely, flushing the real hunter out is a big favour to the wolves, it's like flagging a landmine for them". I'm not sure it really depends on whether it's early or late in the game. Perhaps earlier is even better for wolves, but I wasn't looking at it timing-wise yesterDay.

THE Ka

05-11-2020, 09:29 AM

I simply thought claiming to be the hunter would be a quite cunning and in character move from a wolf!Sally, because (quoting myself) "a) the real hunter might be reluctant to challenge because it greatly decreases their chance to get to use their special ability and b) conversely, flushing the real hunter out is a big favour to the wolves, it's like flagging a landmine for them". I'm not sure it really depends on whether it's early or late in the game. Perhaps earlier is even better for wolves, but I wasn't looking at it timing-wise yesterDay.

Got it, that answers it more for me. Kath had pointed out earlier with a quote from Mac the previous Day where he had mused that the wolves if targeting a hunter would want them out of the way early since the risk of the hunter taking an innocent was high. Before knowing his role, this could have been seen as a wolfish way of laying a subtle hint to pack mates, but now it's just a villager concerned.

Lalaith

05-11-2020, 09:32 AM

Thinlómien

05-11-2020, 09:41 AM

...to see if people have already addressed issues I raised in my vote analysis post.

I'm somewhat worried to see that the timestamp of Zil's megapost against me is 8 minutes past the deadline. He spent the Night building an attack against me. I can't feel very good about this - even if given the amount of suspicion he's under, he could probably quite sure about his continued survival as an innocent too.

If I was a wolf, I would have been trying an awful lot harder to swing the vote Zil's direction, because I would have known for sure that Sally actually was the Hunter, and there would have been no motivation for me to lynch her. I voted for her because I thought there was an actual chance she was a wolf. If I really wanted to vote somewhere else, I could have pushed for Zil, who had also been suspected. In my opinion, the fact that there was no coherent alternative at all should speak to the idea that the people in Sally's crosshairs were not evil. I'm still not sure why you were so convinced Sally would hunt you. Dare I say the p-word here? :p Hunters vote their hunt pick sometimes, but just as often they don't. I am somewhat thinking on the opposite lines to you here. Why indeed did no one really press the lynch towards Zil (or Boro, or Brinn - all three quite widely suspected)? Is that ecause they were somebody's packmates? (Not talking about Lottie here. I don't really suspect her, and she seemed to be fairly convinced Sally was a wolf until the last minutes.)

For the same reason Legate did (we actually cross-posted) I got freaked out by the fact she didn't say who she was hunting. Up til then I'd been waiting on an agreed alternative to sally.
Coulda, woulda, shoulda.....Shoulda just voted earlier for Eonwe. Not sure if it would have helped though. Zil was coming up as an alternative with a lot of people but I didn't really feel enthused by that alternative bandwaggon - I felt similar about him as I had about Mac - couldn't quite see what all the fuss and suspicion was about.Okay, I see this answers a question I had to Lalaith. I'm a bit unsure whether I buy it or not. It sounds genuine enough, but if Zil is innocent, then this could easily be Lalwolf admitting reluctance to get her hands bloody by voting him.

edit: xed with Lal, gotcha!

Pitchwife

05-11-2020, 09:48 AM

Although Pitch - at the risk of sounding a hypocrite, why didn't you vote Eonwe earlier?
I should really have done that and hoped somebody would follow suit - both Legate and Rune seemed interested, not sure whether there would have been enough others to save sally. I just waited too long whether anybody else was going to suggest an alternative to sally that I could get behind, and then between refreshing and discussing what to do all of a sudden there were five more votes for sally in less than five minutes, and it was too late.

That really will be interesting in terms of Brinn. We haven't really been able to tell whether it's the baddies pushing that name or not the past two Days, whereas toDay the innocents definitely control the vote.
Everybody sing along with me:

Dead innocents don't know anyone's role,
Dead innocents don't know anyone's role etc.

Which is to say, even though they're free of evil intentions, our beloved quarantined may still be wrong and the baddies can hijack a vote for a non-wolf.

Kath

05-11-2020, 09:56 AM

I remember you backed off the Legate suspicion but I didn't remember you suspected Eönwë. Sorry, my bad about that one. The Boro and Brinn thing though, it really just adds to my general unease about some fairly commonly suspected names floating around in the lynch discussion yesterDay but garnering scarcely any votes. Why did you, for instance, vote Sally and not Eönwë, or Boro or Brinn? Had you done that as soon as you started voicing your misgivings about the Sally lynch, there might have been an actual option to lynch someone else.
This is in response to Lal. Agreed, but there were quite a few others in the same boat. Who was still to vote after sally's reveal:

Lottie - 9.53
Lalaith - 9.55
Legate - 9.56 - known innocent
Shasta - 9.56
Brinn - 9.58
Rune - 9.58
Boro - 9.58
Mac - 9.58 - known innocent
Pitch - 9.59
(Lhuna - no vote)

The first vote after the reveal was Lottie's, half an hour after sally's vote, and that was with 7 minutes to go, and by the look of it almost every vote from then cross posted. Out of all 9 actual voters there, no one took the plunge of pushing forward another candidate fast enough. Very likely there are wolves who didn't want to be the first onto an alternative bandwagon who were watching the insanity with glee. But looking at the lateness of Legate and Mac's votes, who we now know were innocent, means not immediately throwing out an alternative doesn't automatically equal wolf.

Loslote

05-11-2020, 09:56 AM

Kath

05-11-2020, 10:00 AM

Which is to say, even though they're free of evil intentions, our beloved quarantined may still be wrong and the baddies can hijack a vote for a non-wolf.
Agreed, but we're at two baddies and five innocents, so the baddies can't have the same level of influence as before.

Thinlómien

05-11-2020, 10:11 AM

(and then I'm gonna take a short break because I've spent basically all day on this game, ugh)

Innocentish

Lottie - I don't like how she's been focusing on just me toDay, but I maintain that her last minute hunter panic, as well as her Huine vote, make her look more innocent than not.

Pitch - also looks very innocent thanks to his Huine vote. I mean I guess I could reconsider that, but not toDay.

Rune - I think the Legate kill makes him look very good, and there's nothing at the moment to make me second guess it.

Ish

Kath - nothing super sinister or super reassuring going on here. I got mildly suspicious of her being so non-committal yesterDay, but the Legate kill perhaps makes her look mildly better.

Greenie - I have got a lot more genuine vibe from her toDay than before, perhaps because she has been talking more openly about her emotions/ thought processes (frustration over having been wrong, admitting ignoring Sally's hunter hint because she suspected her etc). Still, her track record is about as terrible as mine, and it would be very ironic if we were BOTH innocent. I still don't like how she steered clear of the whole Huinescussion on Day2 though.

Boro - started the game weird, then started to sound like his normal innocent self. Explained this with meta reasons which I was ready to accept, thought him pretty innocent. However, his Mac vote is still a little concerning, as is the fact that like with Inzil (see below), the suspicion against him somehow seldom materialises as votes. I should probably reconsider my good feeling about him (which, to be entirely honest might partly be based on him not suspecting me) but I don't think I'm gonna do that toDay.

Lalaith - I keep flipflopping here. I still don't like her indecisive going with the flow yesterDay, and I think her Huine vote looks faily likely to be a wolf-on-wolf. But then again, could innocent Lal play this way? Absolutely.

THE Ka - still very much in her own bubble, which freaks me out a little. But is that enough reason to considering voting her? Ehhhh...

Shasta - mmmmhhh I still like him in regards to the Kit thing, and I like his independent thinking. But I don't like how he's now spent two days hovering around until the deadline and casting an absolutely meaningless vote. Talk about people who keep their hands clean. Possibly looks a tidbit better for the Legate kill though.

Suspiciousish

Lhuna - she is playing very safe and avoiding connections to most players. I don't like it.

Inzil - the next ??????? for me. I still don't like his Mac vote, and I don't like the way he's gunning for me right now, and I don't like how despite "everybody" suspecting him an actual zillynch has failed gaining traction repeatedly. Is it because a lot of the suspicion on him has been wolf-on-wolf? His weird vote yesterDay doesn't feel to wolvish though, and I am somewhat afraid he could be a very similarly misguided innocent as I have been. It would be all too ironic.

Brinniel - I am honestly quite puzzled how this game seems to orbit around her. She gets suspected, but never lynched. The evil QT have latched onto her (hopefully we'll learn more about that in three hours). If Legate had been considered seer, paranoid Brinn could have been behind that (just like with the Rikae kill, may I add). Everyone talks about her all the time but she is quite non-committal in her comments about people and keeps voting safely. Huine defended her in a striking way that could however be just as well wolf-on-wolf as wolf-on-innocent. If I would lynch anyone just to shed light on everybody's roles, I'd pick Brinn. But I'm not 100% she's a likely enough wolf that it's a good idea.

Eönwë - I can't quite put my finger on it, but my vibe of him in this game is very opportunistic and evasive, and he's been involved in several dodgy puddles (such as last minute voting in Huine-vs-Mac, or possibly his Sally vote yesterDay which I'd like to hear more about).

edit: xed with everyone

Brinniel

05-11-2020, 10:23 AM

No one but me has even looked at the Legate kill.
I haven't had a chance to look deeply into it, but I've thought about it and read your analysis.

Legate seems like another safe, boring kill since it seems he was widely presumed innocent. But then again, why wouldn't the wolves try seeking out the seer? Unless they wanted us to think they were targeting the seer or they were worried that targeting a seer could implicate one of them. But it seems too risky to not seek out the seer - the longer they remain alive, the bigger the risk they are to the wolves.

So maybe the wolves did think Legate was possibly a seer who dreamed of Hui. I do agree that if they did kill Legate for seer suspicions, then that does put Rune in a better light.

Thinlómien

05-11-2020, 10:24 AM

Everybody sing along with me:

Dead innocents don't know anyone's role,
Dead innocents don't know anyone's role etc.

Which is to say, even though they're free of evil intentions, our beloved quarantined may still be wrong and the baddies can hijack a vote for a non-wolf. No, they don't, but they have read Gal and Huine's interactions on the QT thread and know what lead them to pick Brinn yesterDay.

The first vote after the reveal was Lottie's, half an hour after sally's vote, and that was with 7 minutes to go, and by the look of it almost every vote from then cross posted. Out of all 9 actual voters there, no one took the plunge of pushing forward another candidate fast enough. Very likely there are wolves who didn't want to be the first onto an alternative bandwagon who were watching the insanity with glee. But looking at the lateness of Legate and Mac's votes, who we now know were innocent, means not immediately throwing out an alternative doesn't automatically equal wolf. Yes, but Legate for instance was quite convinced of Sally's guilt. Mac wasn't.

I'm getting more and more convinced it is not in the innocents' interests for everyone to leave their votes to the last minute. (Why do you think I've voted earlier than I had to 2 days in a row?) Dudes, let's learn from our mistakes and spread out the votes a little toDay, so we have time to discuss and react to each other's votes. Please.

The other important thing to consider here is, Lommy is a very good player who is very good at arguing for her innocence. If anyone could get away with encouraging the village to quarantine a Hunter who was very likely to take an innocent with her, it would be Lommy. With five wolves, I could see them agreeing that someone should be playing loud and bold, and that Lommy was the best person to do it. Awwww, this warms my heart a little! But to be honest, I am a crappy and unhappy liar irl and it often shows in werewolf too *points at signature* :D

I'm with Lalaith here - it was very hard to think and plan around Lommy arguing that we should just quarantine Sally yesterDay. There wasn't another voice arguing with you, so we all just ended up quietly doing our own things without coordinating at all, and a lot of that (from what I remember) was just not being able to coordinate over you.Then the question you should ask is probably why was there not another voice arguing with me? Why did everyone keep discussing Sally? Like it's been said, she revealed 45min before the deadline. Not as much time as would be ideal, but certainly plenty. Did the discussion loop around Sally because both innocents who wrongly suspected Sally and wolves thought lynching Sally was a good course of action? Then who was who?

Inziladun

05-11-2020, 10:33 AM

I'm getting more and more convinced it is not in the innocents' interests for everyone to leave their votes to the last minute. (Why do you think I've voted earlier than I had to 2 days in a row?) Dudes, let's learn from our mistakes and spread out the votes a little toDay, so we have time to discuss and react to each other's votes. Please.

Or, so you and your mates have a little breathing room?

Then the question you should ask is probably why was there not another voice arguing with me? Why did everyone keep discussing Sally? Like it's been said, she revealed 45min before the deadline. Not as much time as would be ideal, but certainly plenty. Did the discussion loop around Sally because both innocents who wrongly suspected Sally and wolves thought lynching Sally was a good course of action? Then who was who?

Ah, so it's the innocents' fault for listening to you?

Loslote

05-11-2020, 11:01 AM

Then the question you should ask is probably why was there not another voice arguing with me? Why did everyone keep discussing Sally? Like it's been said, she revealed 45min before the deadline. Not as much time as would be ideal, but certainly plenty. Did the discussion loop around Sally because both innocents who wrongly suspected Sally and wolves thought lynching Sally was a good course of action? Then who was who?

I can only know what I was thinking and feeling at the time, which was of course clouded by my knowing that if Sally really was the Hunter, I was probably in real danger of being hunted. But I was so confused and overwhelmed that whole time. I wasn't able to come up with a coherent argument. I flopped between "she's the Hunter, I am absolutely not voting her, I don't want to die!" and "there's no way, she's gotta be a wolf, we need to just quarantine her". I could imagine that you might have just decided to go with the second option and not even consider that she might have been the Hunter. I could also imagine that you knew for a fact that she wasn't a wolf. But you definitely weren't reacting the same way I was, and the fact that no one else was able to make a coherent argument, either, suggests to me that my reaction - being confused and overwhelmed - might have been a really common reaction to have.

Loslote

05-11-2020, 11:04 AM

Lottie - I don't like how she's been focusing on just me toDay, but I maintain that her last minute hunter panic, as well as her Huine vote, make her look more innocent than not.

You're not wrong about this, though. I'd like to see more from Boro, and while Zil sounds more innocent toDay, I haven't forgotten about him, either. I'll do a list in a minute here, because I do think there is a danger of letting the quieter players just slip right out of view.

Pitchwife

05-11-2020, 11:08 AM

I'm getting more and more convinced it is not in the innocents' interests for everyone to leave their votes to the last minute. (Why do you think I've voted earlier than I had to 2 days in a row?) Dudes, let's learn from our mistakes and spread out the votes a little toDay, so we have time to discuss and react to each other's votes. Please.Or, so you and your mates have a little breathing room?
After yesterDay's fiasco I'd think what Lommy suggests here seems plain sense, not sure why you'd react so strongly to this.

Ah, so it's the innocents' fault for listening to you?
There were a lot of other people involved in yesterDay's lynch beyond Lommy, so we could at least entertain the possibility that Lommy's initial suspicion of sally was innocent and some wolves picked it up and ran with it. Or would you rather lynch her now and worry about her guilt later?
I don't like this exclusive fixation on Lommy. If you think she's a wolf, who do you think are her packmates?

I actually think both Lommy and Lottie sound genuine to me. Taking a look at Brinn's and Greenie's posts from yesterDay right now.

A Little Green

05-11-2020, 11:11 AM

Lhunardawen

05-11-2020, 11:14 AM

No vote: Lhuna Not much to say about that, but speaking of her: don't look at her vote tally of yesterDay, it has several errors.
The several errors you speak of is where I removed sally and Mac's votes since they're no longer of consequence. Apart from that, our tallies are the same.

Kath

05-11-2020, 11:23 AM

I have to say I'm with Lommy on this one. The last-minute scramble is a recipe for disaster, and also harder to analyse the next Day if everyone crossposts and votes in a hurry.
Which has definitely been the case toDay.

But, if we're talking about voting earlier, are we in fact going back to Legate's points from Day 1 again?! The poor thing must be rolling in his quarantine bed.

Lalaith

05-11-2020, 11:24 AM

After yesterDay's fiasco I'd think what Lommy suggests here seems plain sense, not sure why you'd react so strongly to this.

For my part, while I certainly don't want another last-minute panic, I would at least like to wait to see what the QTs have to say.
I haven't had time to do as much reading/analysis today as I wanted (busy at work). I've got various ideas of wolf combos floating about in my head but not enough time to sit down and plot them all in order to see if they stand up.
I feel still feel bad and somewhat dispirited about the shambles of yesterDay. Rune's term was "bummed out" and I know what he means.
So because I haven't had time to do new analysis toDay I haven't really moved on much from my suspect list of yesterDay. I could add Lommy on there - I admire her chutzpah toDay but I still think her behaviour was suspicious, particularly in her refusal to acknowledge the benefit of having HunterSally as a known innocent.

Eönwë

05-11-2020, 11:29 AM

Eönwë's suspicion of me feels very opportunistic to me, while Pitchwife and Lottie's more organic and understandable. Granted, this might be partly because I have other reasons to think Lottie and Pitch innocent, but nothing in particular for Eönwë.

You've been on my suspicious list since Day 2 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showthread.php?p=723704#post723704).

Loslote

05-11-2020, 11:30 AM

Feeling good about:
I don't trust anyone this much right now.

Feeling okay about:
Pitch - Ever since his vote on Huin, I've felt pretty good about Pitch. He comes across as genuine. Also, I don't think Huin would have pushed that hard for the GLP thing if there was actually a wolf in it.
Kath - She's seemed engaged and helpful. I like what she has to say.
Rune - He's seemed more genuine lately, I feel okay about him at this point.
Shasta - He's done some things that are very innocent-looking, though he hasn't really gotten his hands dirty wolf-hunting yet, so I'm not going to fully trust him.

Feeling nothing about:
Lalaith - She feels very neutral to me. I haven't seen anything that jumps out as suspicious, but if she turned out to be a submarine wolf, I wouldn't be shocked, either.
Brinn - Brinn doesn't strike me as especially suspicious, but with all the controversy around her, I can't say that I have a strong sense of her alignment one way or the other.

Feeling dubious about:
Greenie - She's flown right under my radar somehow, but I think she's been extremely helpful without actually pushing the village in any particular direction, which makes me feel a little uneasy. I don't have her at the top of my suspicion list, but I can't say that I trust her at all.
Lhuna - She's been very quiet, which I can't exactly blame her for, but I haven't seen any proof that I can trust her, either.
Eönwë - I don't have much of a read at all, but he does feel like he could possibly be a submarine wolf.
THE Ka - I don't trust her, but I don't have super solid reasons to suspect her, just a feeling.

Feeling bad about:
Zil - I've felt better about him toDay, but I can't ignore the timing of his vote or the weird behavior yesterDay, in particular how he wasn't adding any new suspicions after his Mac vote, which just felt like a way for a wolf to avoid tying himself to his packmates.
Lommy - Her gleeful attitude at the deadline yesterDay feels too different from how I and others were feeling for me to think we're coming at this game from the same perspective. I also find it suspicious that she almost completely ignored Boro yesterDay in favor of focusing on Sally and Zil. I understand she had other reasons to suspect them, but to just not mention Boro at all seems like they might be packmates.
Boro - I've been suspicious of Boro for Days now, and his vote for Mac looks pretty bad. I also don't at all like that he asked me how I was able to convince Sally - to me, that reads a wolf whose pack decided I probably wasn't the Seer, but who really wanted to prod a little to be sure.

THE Ka

05-11-2020, 11:30 AM

(Sorry for delay, my work suddenly decided to have a conference call with all mgmt. and our tribe on gradually reopening businesses)

Agreed, but we're at two baddies and five innocents, so the baddies can't have the same level of influence as before.

yesterDay:

Huh. QT votes for Brinn again. Do they actually want Brinn lynched, or are they repeating yesterDay's vote as a way to refuse to give us anything from Huin to guess about?

Having a chance to go back and begin reading everything that happened near DL yesterDay, I'm agreeing with Lottie's observation. I know we've joked about the repetitive QT vote, but I highly doubt we're going to see a vote like this to cover for anyone toDay. If Brinn is still in the suspicion for being a wolf and 'protected' by the dismissal of the QT as Zil pointed out yesterDay, I just don't see it swinging that way a third time. If anything for suspicion on Brinn, it will either allow them to return to a safe spot to hide or force them to be more forward.

Like Kath has said, it's the level of influence. Huin and G55, whatever they may be saying toDay in the QT, it's a fair assumption that Legate is going to be interested in what they were trying to cover from Huin previously. It also makes me suspicious that the wolves are going to be interested in waiting for the QT vote as well so we may see a last minute push of their preferred bandwagon.

It made me want to go back to Legate's #740:

Huh. QT votes for Brinn again. Do they actually want Brinn lynched, or are they repeating yesterDay's vote as a way to refuse to give us anything from Huin to guess about?

I think they are doing this to give us no info, plus potentially even discourage us from it (depending what Brinn is). Anyway, clearly messing with us in some way, that's for sure.

I don't know what I expected.

That makes me want us to leave Brinn alone for toDay, not that I was keen to vote her right now anyway.

Breeeeep. Disagreed. I'd almost be tempted to shove it in the QT's face and vote her. But let's think about this for a sec.

There's no way to know. Brinn could easily be a wolf they're voting for just because they know we won't trust the QT.

Yes, this is one, fairly plausible, option, in my opinion.

From this we glean that Legate highly suspected the Brinn QT vote to be a cover, give us no information, and was almost tempted to do the opposite and vote for Brinn (which if there was some earlier plan before Hui ended up in QT to collaborate between the two threads to not give info and save Brinn, it would potentially force the wolves to decide quickly whether to abandon their current bandwagons to save Brinn or be forced to give her up.) A frantic situation like that two hours before DL could glean a lot of leads on potential wolves.
I know before when G55 had made the fake-vote idea, Legate mainly was interested in it due to this similar effect of disarming wolf-planning suddenly.

Lalaith

05-11-2020, 11:32 AM

I would also put Shasta on my 'watch' list. For the reasons, (ironically enough) that Lommy states in her recent analysis.

I still feel I haven't got any kind of handle on Lhuna, Ka and, to some extent, Kath.
Which probably means they are all brilliant wolves. :smokin:

Eönwë

05-11-2020, 11:33 AM

But, if we're talking about voting earlier, are we in fact going back to Legate's points from Day 1 again?! The poor thing must be rolling in his quarantine bed.

I mean, now that we know the majority of the QT is innocent it might actually be sensible to vote early, since that means that known innocents can magnify a vote that they believe to be for someone evil (of course, there may be enough misdirection from the Evils to throw it off, but we can hope...).

Pitchwife

05-11-2020, 11:49 AM

Just came across this in my Greenie reread:
Greenie's main suspects in her list (outside of Brinn and me) are Sally and Inzil, who are pretty much universally suspected by everyone, it seems, so that's a fairly safe thing to do.

The rest of her posts toDay all seem fair and helpful, though the explanation of her vote to Legate seems a bit wolfish. Wolves pre-think how their votes can be made to sound all reasonable before the Day starts, and I get a bit of that vibe there.

That's what I thought too. Lots of Greenie's posts have been "safe" that way.
What can I say? Sally and Inzil both cast votes that look like they could have been motivated by trying to save Huin, both bring this up themselves in a fairly shifty way, and neither of their interactions with Huin contradicts a read of them as fellow wolves. Sally didn’t interact with Huin at all and has played generally safe and uncontroversial, while Inzil brought up an obvious Ranger slip, and was suspected by Huin on both days in a way that would just pass for safe wolf-on-wolf. I’d say both have fairly strong cases against them, so I’m not surprised if they are “pretty much universally suspected”.
Looks fair enough at first sight, but would look even fairer if you hadn't used sally's 'safe suspect choices' as a point against her in #621. Double standard much?

Eönwë

05-11-2020, 11:52 AM

I also agree with Greenie that the tunnel-vision on Lommy. While I agree that she's very suspicious and is one of my top vote picks for the Day (along with Boro and Zil), it definitely seems to have eased pressure on others (so that they don't have to defend themselves), and has almost certainly given cover for Infectors to attack (or defend in theory, but I don't think I've seen anyone do this) a possible packmate (i.e. Lommy) - they can just blend in with the crowd in this.

edit: x-ed with Pitch

Inziladun

05-11-2020, 11:52 AM

After yesterDay's fiasco I'd think what Lommy suggests here seems plain sense, not sure why you'd react so strongly to this.

I was just poking her a bit. Voting earlier really isn't a problem for me

I mean, now that we know the majority of the QT is innocent it might actually be sensible to vote early, since that means that known innocents can magnify a vote that they believe to be for someone evil (of course, there may be enough misdirection from the Evils to throw it off, but we can hope...).

This would be most workable if everyone here voted before the QT DL. I'm not sure all could manage it.

x/d with Pitch and Steve

Loslote

05-11-2020, 11:53 AM

This would be most workable if everyone here voted before the QT DL. I'm not sure all could manage it.

@Cuties If I was going to vote right now, I would vote for one of:

+- Boro
+- Lommy

Inziladun

05-11-2020, 11:55 AM

I'll do this, then, for the QT:

+-Lommy
or
+-Brinn

Lhunardawen

05-11-2020, 11:55 AM

I'm getting more and more convinced it is not in the innocents' interests for everyone to leave their votes to the last minute.
I agree. Let's start the ball rolling. (Also getting this out there before I fall back to sleep again. :rolleyes: )

++EÖNWË

My suspicion of him based on his voting pattern stands.

If Lommy and/or Boro are wolves, then their longevity as a pack would be better served by having a couple of relatively submarine packmates. And while I'm still convinced they're both suspicious, this village has so far had the bad habit of lynching those who are in the middle of the controversy of the Day who more often than not turn out to be innocent, and I'm sick of imagining the wolves cackling to themselves as they watch. Also, giving both of them one more Day and Night's worth of scrutiny should yield something a little bit more concrete.

i'm also not convinced about how Lommy explained that killing Legate as a possible Seer places Rune in a good light. I don't think Legate would have been that vocal about dreaming of him if he were the Seer.

Kath

05-11-2020, 12:00 PM

For the QT, my suspicions haven't really changed, because neither person has done anything to make me feel better about them.

+-Inzil
or
+-Lhuna

Eönwë

05-11-2020, 12:03 PM

This would be most workable if everyone here voted before the QT DL. I'm not sure all could manage it.

Well, even if not everyone gets to vote, they could show that they support a specific vote candidate by strengthening a specific vote of someone who has already voted.

In any case, it's not certain I'll be here for the DL, so:

++Boro

edit: x-ed with Kath and a vote for me.

Thinlómien

05-11-2020, 12:06 PM

The several errors you speak of is where I removed sally and Mac's votes since they're no longer of consequence. Apart from that, our tallies are the same.Ah, I didn't see you did that on purpose. But you also put Sally's reveal in the wrong place chronologically. (Before Zil's vote when it was actually after.)

Inzil's #930, then backing off immediately when people question it seems rather glaringly evil to me. If his intent was to "poke" me like he says, why back off before I have had a chance to reply?

You've been on my suspicious list since Day 2I know, and it doesn't make me any less suspicious of you.

This would be most workable if everyone here voted before the QT DL. I'm not sure all could manage it.Interesting suggestion. Not obviously for toDay - I feel like it's a little too late, given that the qt vote is quite likely already in full swing. We don't want them to make a hurried last minute vote either. But doing this, however counterintuitive it may sound, *would* mean giving the power over a tie to a known innocent (unless the innocents in the qt are terribly disorganised and let Huine and Gal take advantage of it).

If we're doing a fake vote (again, not a bad idea but a bit late maybe), then I'll add a

+-Inzil

edit: help, xed with two actual votes and a bunch of other stuff!

Eönwë

05-11-2020, 12:10 PM

Since I don't know if I'll get back before the end of the Day, here is my list:

Evil
Boro
Zil
Lommy

Unsure, leaning evil
Lalaith
Rune

Unsure, neutral
Shasta
Lhuna

Unsure, leaning good
THE Ka
Lottie
Brinn
Pitch
Kath
Greenie

edit: x-ed with Lommy

Lalaith

05-11-2020, 12:10 PM

Sorry as my two posts were split and also probably not making my intentions clear enough for the cuties. :-)

I could vote Eonwe, Brinn, or Boro, (same as my suspect list of yesterday) and could also be persuaded to Lommy and even Shasta. (for easons see my posts above)
Sorry that is a rather messy list but I make more sense at weekends when I'm not at work and have more time!
Btw I was skim-reading as much as I could, looking for stuff Legate had said that could have made the wolves think he was a Seer.
I didn't find anything precise but i did find this: he pointed out that Hui's saving of Brinn looked wolfy. That makes me feel better about voting Brinn, particularly as Hui was a first-time and therefore possibly not very tricksy wolf.

Thinlómien

05-11-2020, 12:15 PM

i'm also not convinced about how Lommy explained that killing Legate as a possible Seer places Rune in a good light. I don't think Legate would have been that vocal about dreaming of him if he were the Seer.Do you then disagree that Legate was killed for looking like a seer? If not, who do you think they thought he dreamed of?

The two first votes are interesting. Lhuna goes for yet another not-so-popular pick, but given how she acknowledges this in her reasoning, I can't really disagree. I mean we must have at least a few wolves who are quiet and steering clear of controversy, unless the remaining pack is Brinn-Zil-Boro-Lottie, which I quite refuse to believe.

Eönwë goes for Boro, which is consistent with his earlier suspicions. But Eönwë, if you have time to clarify at any point - why Boro and not me or Zil? As far as I can see you didn't specify before which one of us your top suspects is the most suspicious to you and why.

Brinniel

05-11-2020, 12:19 PM

If we're doing this early fake voting, my preference would be +-Inzil.

Lhunardawen

05-11-2020, 12:31 PM

Do you then disagree that Legate was killed for looking like a seer? If not, who do you think they thought he dreamed of?
The most Seerish thing Legate did that stood out to me was encouraging a vote for Hui and looking for support. I think it's more likely he would stick his neck out, as we see in hindsight, to point out a wolf than an innocent, like he would have done with Rune on Day 1 in your scenario.

I say this because I've been thinking Rune might be another submarine wolf. Given that I suspect you, this could be a way for you to use a Seer-candidate's words to keep others from taking a closer look at Rune. And it bothers me that at least a couple of people have agreed with you about him.

Thinlómien

05-11-2020, 12:36 PM

The most Seerish thing Legate did that stood out to me was encouraging a vote for Hui and looking for support. I think it's more likely he would stick his neck out, as we see in hindsight, to point out a wolf than an innocent, like he would have done with Rune on Day 1 in your scenario.

I say this because I've been thinking Rune might be another submarine wolf. Given that I suspect you, this could be a way for you to use a Seer-candidate's words to keep others from taking a closer look at Rune. And it bothers me that at least a couple of people have agreed with you about him.Well I would assume the seer to leave some clue about his known innocents, should he die without getting to reveal. I somewhat assumed everyone would at least consider this, but I see now that everyone doesn't. Unless you're a wolf who is trying to discredit innocent Rune because you might need him as a lynch option later?

THE Ka

05-11-2020, 12:41 PM

looking for stuff Legate had said that could have made the wolves think he was a Seer.
I didn't find anything precise but i did find this: he pointed out that Hui's saving of Brinn looked wolfy. That makes me feel better about voting Brinn, particularly as Hui was a first-time and therefore possibly not very tricksy wolf.

I'm getting really tempted to honour Legate's theory from the post I previously quoted, especially the new ratio in the QT now.

Do you then disagree that Legate was killed for looking like a seer? If not, who do you think they thought he dreamed of?

I'm going to have to ask the same Lhuna. Choosing him appears to be they were having a hunch on his role due to his relative safety and insights? If so, why not Pitch who was in tandem with him at points during the Huin vote. Or do you think he was chosen out of pressure and because of starting the Huin vote they thought he had some additional role insight?
Granted we've had issues with gifted roles revealing here and there, but Legate was pretty solid 'stop talking about it, the wolves can see' and agreeing with Pitch's reminder that the cobbler and innocents in QT don't have some magical reveal any more than we do on exactly who is what.

Just refreshed and I see x'ed with everyone. Sorry.

Lhunardawen

05-11-2020, 12:41 PM

Well I would assume the seer to leave some clue about his known innocents, should he die without getting to reveal. I somewhat assumed everyone would at least consider this, but I see now that everyone doesn't. Unless you're a wolf who is trying to discredit innocent Rune because you might need him as a lynch option later?
Differing Seer tactics, I guess. I certainly wouldn't single one person out as innocent on Day 1.

A Little Green

05-11-2020, 12:47 PM

For Cutie purposes (even if a bit last minute) -

+- Inzil

Wouldn't be opposed to Boro, Brinn or Lhuna either.

Nogrod

05-11-2020, 01:00 PM

The QT has voted.

They give their vote to ++ Brinni.. :eek:

Nope.

Not this time.

They give their vote to

++ Lhunardawen

Loslote

05-11-2020, 01:01 PM

How interesting!

Thinlómien

05-11-2020, 01:01 PM

Differing Seer tactics, I guess. I certainly wouldn't single one person out as innocent on Day 1.For the record, he didn't single him out. I singled him out in my analysis. Because everyone else Legate called innocent he at least had some doubts about, or made a point in passing about how something they said could be suspicious. Rune is the only one he was unanimous about, but it was pretty vague.

edit: xed with everyone after Greenie INCLUDING THE TROLLING MOD

A Little Green

05-11-2020, 01:04 PM

I had a quick (and frustratingly inconclusive) look at Brinn yesterDay and toDay. I have to say I sort of get why she’s been scrutinised a lot less the last two days: her behaviour has been a lot less controversial.

Day 3:
I was really hoping that Kit was an ordo acting like the ranger, but alas.
The Hui bandwagon really did come from nowhere - I'm just glad I trusted my gut. I don't think the wolves saw that bandwagon coming, however, I do think there's a fair chance that a wolf is hiding among the Hui voters, so I will not disregard them.
This is Brinn reacting to Day 2 and Night 3. The tone doesn’t feel genuine to me, but that isn’t really an argument.
- Thinks there is at least one wolf in group that didn’t vote either Huin or Mac D2.
- Analyses Ka, doesn’t come to a conclusion either way; analyses Rune, concludes she is wary of him but not as suspicious as of some others; analyses Lhuna and finds her suspicious.
- Thinks Lalaith or Eonwe are most likely wolf-on-wolfers among Huin voters.
- List: most concerned about Inzil, Sally, Lhuna; somewhat worried about Boro, Rune, Lalaith, Eonwe; not sure about Kath, Ka, Shasta, Greenie, Lottie; feeling okay about Pitch, Lommy, Legate, Mac.
- Suspects Sally; after reveal, skeptical about its authenticity. Votes Sally because thinks real Hunter-Sally would have revealed her intended pick.

Day 4
- Reaction to previous Day again rubs me the wrong way, but again, this is a gut feeling thing more than anything else:
My gosh yesterDay was a mess. I am baffled why Sally last-minute switched to Mac - compared to everyone else, he appeared to be on the more innocent side. But I guess that at least takes the question of whether two wolves were on the table Day 2.

I don't think a Lommy-wolf would be so bold to lead the charge against Sally. It's more likely to me that a wolf (or two) just went with the flow because with seven votes against Sally post-hunter reveal, that would've been a much easier way to hide. The fact that Inzil was so keen to jump on her doesn't make me feel any better of him. I do not trust him one bit.

I'm actually liking what Boro has to say toDay. Strange, I know. I'm still wary of him due to the timing of his vote on Mac, but maybe less so.
- List: leans innocent on Lottie, Lommy, Pitchwife, Shasta and Kath, going back and forth on myself and Boro, no read on Rune or Ka, suspects Lhuna and Inzil, and thinks there’s a fair chance either Eonwe or Lalaith is a wolf but probably not both. Later states Inzil as her fake vote preference.
- Discusses Legate kill – either safe and boring or “seer” who dreamed Rune and Huin.

And that’s it up to time of writing. Aside from a vague bad feeling about her opening posts both days, there’s nothing here that screams “wolf” to me – if not exactly screaming “innocent” either. Not massively useful, but at least I know I haven’t overlooked anything very glaring either way. :rolleyes:

Thinlómien

05-11-2020, 01:06 PM

So presumably at least 2 dead innocents including Legate, or 3 innocents not including Legate, think Lhuna is fishy?

Gotcha, dead folks. A bit unsure how much we should let their choices affect ours though. They don't (barring some catastrophe in the qt thread) have evil intent, but they still don't know anything more than we do.

edit: xed with Greenie

Lhunardawen

05-11-2020, 01:06 PM

Hmm. Interesting.

Well it's 3 AM here and I have work in 5 hours and I can barely keep my eye open, so I'll call it a night.

Inziladun

05-11-2020, 01:09 PM

Interesting from the QT, however, Lhuna is not my first choice.

I'm at work today, and some may recall that my line entails a level of unpredictability.
That said, I can't see my main suspect changing.

++Lommy

I'll try to get back, but no guarantee.

Thinlómien

05-11-2020, 01:09 PM

Thinlómien

05-11-2020, 01:11 PM

So

Lhuna -> Eönwë
Eönwë -> Boro
QT -> Lhuna
Zil -> Lommy

Lhunardawen

05-11-2020, 01:12 PM

Taking advantage of my weird timezone to greet sally a happy birthday! *waves and blows a kiss to the QT thread*

Pitchwife

05-11-2020, 01:12 PM

+-Eönwë

For reasons explained yesterDay, plus I'd have expected an innocent to react a bit stronger to this continued suspicion.

An unordered list:

Zil and/or Lommy - on the fence

Boro - haven't studied him enough to form a qualified opinion.
Brinn and/or Greenie - wary for involvement in sallywagon, but apart from the bit from Greenie I quoted above nothing in yesterDay's posts really stood out as fishy
Lottie - leaning innocent
Rune - no wolfy vibes so far
Kath - see Rune
Lhuna - darned if I know; she's a slippery fish in the sense that I can't quite get a cognitive grip on her
Lalaith - a bit like Lhuna but less so (does this make any sense?)
THE Ka - another one; like somebody said, she seems to exist in a bubble of her own at one remove from what else is happening
Shasta - not concerned so far, we'll see what happens when he gets more involved

Nogrod

05-11-2020, 01:15 PM

Managed to catch up only now, so here's the tally of the Day so far, a bit late...

Votes (1h 45 min. before the DL)

Lhuna -> Eönwë
Eönwë -> Boro
QT -> Lhuna
Inzil -> Lommy

EDIT: X'd with Lommy's list... It's always good to do a double-check. :)

A Little Green

05-11-2020, 01:17 PM

So

Lhuna -> Eönwë
Eönwë -> Boro
QT -> Lhuna
Zil -> Lommy
This is interesting. I'd still prefer Inzil, but I'm also tempted to follow the Cuties' lead on Lhuna. I was uneasy with her to begin with, and since she isn't the most obvious choice for the QT vote, it makes me wonder if they haven't deduced something from Huin that led them to believe she's a fellow of his.

Thinlómien

05-11-2020, 01:21 PM

I would prefer Zil, but I can also content myself with Lhuna and Eönwë who both give me somewhat concerning vibes. There's not as much logical reason to suspect them as with Zil, but logic hasn't served me too well in this game... :rolleyes::D

Rune Son of Bjarne

05-11-2020, 01:22 PM

Almost done reading through todays action, and my initial thoughts are thus:

Lommy’s involvement in the Sally lynch, definitely makes me wary of her. To me, it was one of the most nonsensical things I have seen in a long time. I must note however that a known innocent (Legate), defended Lommy’s reasoning. So yeah, Lommy moves up my list of suspicions, but it would not be prudent to make that our only focal point.

I don’t care for Inzil's way of pushing the Lommy agenda, nor do I like the energetic way in which Lommy seems to pursue the tactic of “the best defence is an attack” today.

I get good vibes from Pitch and Lalaith so far today.

Also I like that you have gone with the early fake votes.

Loslote

05-11-2020, 01:24 PM

In the spirit of avoiding last minute chaos...

++Boro

He is the most suspicious to me. I wouldn't be too upset if any of the people who currently have votes were quarantined, but I think Boro is our best bet.

Boromir88

05-11-2020, 01:31 PM

That is some good news that makes me happy. Understand, I hold them in the highest respect at the moment.

G55 and Huey did well to make the QT vote useless for 2 days. Now it's changed.

A lot of people were looking for an alternative to sally here though, and Boro had previously stated he didn't want to lynch the Hunter, and with 8 votes to go another candidate could have garnered votes. Ok, self preservation, but did you actually believe sally? ~Kath

I was going back and forth. At first I agreed that it would be better not to lynch sally, there was roughly maybe 45 minutes until DL. But after revealing she just went and disappeared, while everyone else (except Lommy) was talking about other options. I think there was still about 15 minutes to go, someone asked for other options I said Zil or Lhuna. Then it was just a mad dash, where 5 minutes to go, there was still so many people who hadn't voted, sally was still gone, so I figured at that point she had to be a wolf.

I feel pretty good about Kath. I like her direct and straight way of asking questions.

Lommy's first post of the day wasn't exactly the most helpful. Although, we've all been there and terribly wrong about someone.

I'll most probably be following the QT's vote. Seems to me like they've got a good head on their shoulders now.

Edit: crossed with Rune and Lottie

He is the most suspicious to me. I wouldn't be too upset if any of the people who currently have votes were quarantined, but I think Boro is our best bet. ~Lottie

Of course, because you're not one of the people who have a vote. In all seriousness though, I don't know about you yet, but you can very easily have a day like Lommy's yesterday and be terribly wrong. That's a risk I guess we all take here.

Rune Son of Bjarne

05-11-2020, 01:34 PM

If I was to vote right now I would probably go for Inzil, Eonwe or Brinn.
I am currently flipflopping on whom I suspect the most, and I would also like to look a little on Lhuna and Boro before I vote. People that I haven't been able to get a read on, but whom interesting points have been made.

+- Inzil
+- Eonwe
+- Brinn

Lastly I wouldn't want to vote Lommy today, yesterday was foolish and suspicious, but in it self not something that convinces me of her guilt.

A Little Green

05-11-2020, 01:34 PM

++ Inziladun

I don't think I need to reiterate why he's suspicious, but as to why vote for him -

First, and quite simply, I think he's the most suspicious person around.
Second, I think everyone who has votes so far is a possible wolf, so I don't have a particular interest in putting someone in the lead to save someone else (sounds cold-hearted, I know); out of those who currently have votes, I somewhat suspect Lhuna and Boro and lean innocent but am not convinced about Lommy and Eonwe.
Third, I think a vote that is more spread out gives us more info later on; as we've seen, giant bandwagons are easy places to hide.

Pitchwife

05-11-2020, 01:40 PM

I think everyone who has votes so far is a possible wolf, so I don't have a particular interest in putting someone in the lead to save someone else (sounds cold-hearted, I know)
'I think everyone who has votes so far is a possible wolf, so I'll vote for a fifth person who is a likely candidate for getting lynched." - *ping*

Thinlómien

05-11-2020, 01:41 PM

Lhuna -> Eönwë
Eönwë -> Boro
QT -> Lhuna
Inzil -> Lommy
Lottie -> Boro 2
Greenie -> Zil

Loslote

05-11-2020, 01:43 PM

'I think everyone who has votes so far is a possible wolf, so I'll vote for a fifth person who is a likely candidate for getting lynched." - *ping*

I'm not fundamentally opposed to quarantining Zil toDay, but I am a little suspicious of the people who are pushing for it, as I think we could learn a lot more if we quarantined someone else. Zil's been so suspected for so long that even if he is a wolf, there's no way the wolves haven't already distanced themselves.

Thinlómien

05-11-2020, 01:50 PM

'I think everyone who has votes so far is a possible wolf, so I'll vote for a fifth person who is a likely candidate for getting lynched." - *ping*Yeah but, tbh, it also makes Greenie sound like someone who has nothing to lose. Suck as packmate's lives. So if she's a wolf, either she doesn't care about a packmate getting offed a this point (they could possibly afford it but I doubt they'd want it?), or none of her packmates is among the voted ones so far. Which would make them quite a formidable team :eek:

I'm not fundamentally opposed to quarantining Zil toDay, but I am a little suspicious of the people who are pushing for it, as I think we could learn a lot more if we quarantined someone else. Zil's been so suspected for so long that even if he is a wolf, there's no way the wolves haven't already distanced themselves. I agree with this assesment, but as I said with Sally (lol), better a likelier wolf lynch than a potentially more informative one.

I'm still a little undecided, and a little afraid that I might need to hold onto my vote a little longer in case the wind starts blowing my way again.

Lalaith

05-11-2020, 01:51 PM

OK I think it's a bit rude that we are completely ignoring the QT vote. I'm saying that in the spirit of someone who (as per my previous post) hasn't really looked at Lhuna.

Boromir88

05-11-2020, 01:54 PM

I'm still a little undecided, and a little afraid that I might need to hold onto my vote a little longer in case the wind starts blowing my way again.

I'm sure this will creep people out, since I'm also saying it. But I'm holding my vote too...maybe not to the last 2 minutes again. I'd prefer not to, but I'm saying it with the intention of putting some minds at ease.

Thinlómien

05-11-2020, 01:56 PM

OK I think it's a bit rude that we are completely ignoring the QT vote. I'm saying that in the spirit of someone who (as per my previous post) hasn't really looked at Lhuna. A bunch of dead innocents think she's the most suspicious person here/ someone we should pay more attention to. But as long as we don't know their reasoning, what can we do except say "ditto, noted"?

Granted, someone could have rushed to analyse Lhuna's posts. It's actually a good idea, but no one did so. Now it's a little late because it would probably take at least half an hour (unless someone is already at it?). But if Lhuna is alive toMorrow, maybe we should do the dead thread a favour and have a closer look at her.

Clarification: this doesn't mean that I'm not considering voting Lhuna. It just means that I'm considering it only a rather flimsy basis, which doesn't make me too happy.

Lalaith

05-11-2020, 01:58 PM

OK I think it's a bit rude that we are completely ignoring the QT vote. I'm saying that in the spirit of someone who (as per my previous post) hasn't really looked at Lhuna.

I'm actually talking to myself here mostly btw. Another thing that is slightly unsettling me is that I was all set to vote for Eonwe but now the QT has dissed the person who was the first to vote for him.

Lalaith

05-11-2020, 02:00 PM

But if Lhuna is alive toMorrow, maybe we should do the dead thread a favour and have a closer look at her.

Yes - definitely.

Rune Son of Bjarne

05-11-2020, 02:01 PM

OK I think it's a bit rude that we are completely ignoring the QT vote. I'm saying that in the spirit of someone who (as per my previous post) hasn't really looked at Lhuna.

I think it is interesting that Lhuna , a relatively non-vocal player (at least not great quantities of posts), choses to introduce her theory that there we are dealing with submarine-wolves in a relatively subdued manner. Also she only does so after she has cast a vote fore Eonwe.

I am afraid I don't have an analysis though.

Pitchwife

05-11-2020, 02:01 PM

I'm actually talking to myself here mostly btw. Another thing that is slightly unsettling me is that I was all set to vote for Eonwe but now the QT has dissed the person who was the first to vote for him.
You and me both.

Brinniel

05-11-2020, 02:02 PM

Granted, someone could have rushed to analyse Lhuna's posts. It's actually a good idea, but no one did so. Now it's a little late because it would probably take at least half an hour (unless someone is already at it?). But if Lhuna is alive toMorrow, maybe we should do the dead thread a favour and have a closer look at her.
Well, I did do an analysis of her yesterDay, but I don't have time to look any further into her posts toDay.

I could vote for Lhuna, but my preference lies with Inzil.

Shastanis Althreduin

05-11-2020, 02:02 PM

Here and reading. Without having read the last two-plus pages or so, I'd probably be voting for Lommy if forced. Let's see if my mind changes any.

Boromir88

05-11-2020, 02:06 PM

Granted, someone could have rushed to analyse Lhuna's posts. It's actually a good idea, but no one did so. Now it's a little late because it would probably take at least half an hour (unless someone is already at it?). But if Lhuna is alive toMorrow, maybe we should do the dead thread a favour and have a closer look at her.

I haven't done one today, haven't quite had the time to follow too close. Trying to catch up on the details of today. This was I think from Day 2:

#502 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=723820&postcount=502)

THE Ka

05-11-2020, 02:08 PM

For referral, from yesterDay after QT vote:

Also a quick list I made for myself just before I came back here:

Wary of:
Greenie
Lhuna
Inzil
Boro
Brinniel
Eönwë

Thought guilty earlier but think better now:
Lottie

Flip-floppy about:

Thinlómien
Sally
Lalaith
Macalaure

Nothing particular on:
Pitchwife
THE Ka

Feeling good about:
Kath
Shasta
Rune

For the record, he didn't single him out. I singled him out in my analysis. Because everyone else Legate called innocent he at least had some doubts about, or made a point in passing about how something they said could be suspicious. Rune is the only one he was unanimous about, but it was pretty vague.

I decided to go back, again, before my eye glazed over and try to find this reference to Legate's suspicion on Rune and discussion that Lhuna mentioned, because from this back and forth with Lommy I kept trying to figure out what the vital focus on Legate and Rune was.

Checked several posts with lists he makes, #667, #642, and then #632 which has the only direct mention of Rune that I can find. In it he is looking at votes for Day 2 and on the Rune topic for his vote for Lottie:

Now depending on the context this could be anything: a throwaway, likely though not an attempt to save a packmate (too little momentum already and stronger bandwagons elsewhere). It looks mostly like an innocent going stubbornly after his own.

After reading it again, this supports Lommy's words more than Lhuna, which out of the two on trying to force the interest of suspicion, makes me a bit more wary of Lhuna's mounting interest in pushing it. Granted this could all be a possible fabricated tit-for-tat between the two, but I would assume both parties would have gone back and made sure the basis of the Rune-Legate connection checked out and not just one of them.

As for the QT and since Sally is the tiebreaker for their vote toDay (if I'm getting that right), back in post #724 Sally follows the theory that the QT vote is to be ignored since who is controlling it at that time. ToDay we'd have: G55 (cobbler), Rikae (villager), Kit (Ranger), Huin (Wolf), Sally (Hunter), and Mac (villager). I'm assuming Mac does count since he was lynchee ala Sally and not voted by the wolves?
That's 4-2 difference with far more insight and influence for innocents given the gifteds around them along with help from Legate. I find it hard that G55 and Huin could have thrown that vote to protect Lhuna and prevent us from picking her. So I can see Sally's stance changing but it gives me more reassurance she was at least aware yesterDay this could be a factor, along with Legate.

If I gave Lhuna the benefit of the doubt that she just slipped up, I still don't see it working in her favour as a wolf. It would be a gamble to put it all in Lommy's corner to argue and believe that none of us would go back and check Legate's posts for insights, let alone clues for who would want him out of the way the most if how it's looking the wolves thought he might have been a Seer candidate.

All this in mind, I'm trusting QT and going with:

++Lhunardawen

x'ed probably with everyone, been writing since 12:20 my time and haven't refreshed yet.

[RL - I have to step away now and check on family along with getting them to focus on travel plans before it's too late. Thanks again everyone for giving me a break.]