Tol-in-Gaurhoth CXIV – The Evil Breath of Morgoth in Dor-lómin, game thread

[Boromir88]

I'm actually talking to myself here mostly btw. Another thing that is slightly unsettling me is that I was all set to vote for Eonwe but now the QT has dissed the person who was the first to vote for him.

I would say most of our days have gone far too narrow. We put ourselves into pretty much just 2 options. Day 1 was G55 and Brinn. Day 2 Mac and Huey, Yesterday Inzil and sally. Today Lommy and Inzil.

I don't know a whole lot about the advocates for it, but I think we need a day where there's a lot more spread. Force the wolves into some tougher choices, instead of just picking between 2 innocents or whether they wanted to bus wolf-Huey or not.

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

I am down to voting either Eonwe or Inzil.

The whole Lhuna thing is interesting, but no way I can make myself vote for her pretty much solely based on the QT-vote.

Of the two Eonwes behaviour is the one that has struck me as the most wolfish, where the wolfish traits of Inzil often have been pointed out by others before I noticed them myself. One is of course always wary of being manipulated. On the other side Inzil's attitude towards Lommy today really bothers me, and most of my grieviances with Eonwe is a bit further back (though he could be said to have been unhelpful-helpful today).

[Lalaith]

Brinniel has fallen completely under my reindeer and I consider that an issue.

This is cute. :cool:

[Thinlómien]

I would say most of our days have gone far too narrow. We put ourselves into pretty much just 2 options. Day 1 was G55 and Brinn. Day 2 Mac and Huey, Yesterday Inzil and sally. Today Lommy and Inzil.

I don't know a whole lot about the advocates for it, but I think we need a day where there's a lot more spread. Force the wolves into some tougher choices, instead of just picking between 2 innocents or whether they wanted to bus wolf-Huey or not.I agree with the sentiment but I think "whether they want to bus wolf-Huey or not" is a tough enough choice.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Since I don't know if I'll get back before the end of the Day, here is my list:

Evil
Boro
Zil
Lommy

Unsure, leaning evil
Lalaith
Rune

Unsure, neutral
Shasta
Lhuna

Unsure, leaning good
THE Ka
Lottie
Brinn
Pitch
Kath
Greenie



edit: x-ed with Lommy

I'm so confused about how I feel about this list. Parts of it I love (Boro, Lommy, Greenie, Kath, Lottie to a lesser extent) and parts of it I hate (Pitch, Rune, Ka and Lalaith to a lesser extent.)

What does it all mean?!

[Lalaith]

Force the wolves into some tougher choices, instead of just picking between 2 innocents or whether they wanted to bus wolf-Huey or not.
How do you know that's what happened on Day 1?
Hmm?

[Shastanis Althreduin]

I would say most of our days have gone far too narrow. We put ourselves into pretty much just 2 options. Day 1 was G55 and Brinn. Day 2 Mac and Huey, Yesterday Inzil and sally. Today Lommy and Inzil.

I don't know a whole lot about the advocates for it, but I think we need a day where there's a lot more spread. Force the wolves into some tougher choices, instead of just picking between 2 innocents or whether they wanted to bus wolf-Huey or not.

I do not at all feel that the day has been narrowed to Lommy and Inzil.

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

This seems a bit of an odd turnaround, Rune.

What is?

The Lommy comments?

Can't I find behaviour unhelpful and even suspicious without it automatically qualifying a person for being a quarantine candidate?

Or were you referring to something else?

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Except for (as I took it at the time) Zil himself, which is why I didn't want to vote him. Ironically, considering what I posted yesterDay before the sally debacle, I'm beginning to think Zil may well be innocent after all. I'm still wondering about you.
But it's true, like Lal said and Mac yesterDay, those of us who didn't want sally lynched screwed it up bigtime.

This post gives me all the creepy vibes.

[Thinlómien]

I agree with the sentiment but I think "whether they want to bus wolf-Huey or not" is a tough enough choice.To add: a tough enough choice that we still haven't scrutinised to my satisfaction.

I do not at all feel that the day has been narrowed to Lommy and Inzil. If you look at the discussion, it feels like that; if you look at the actual votes + mock votes + who people have said they're considering voting, you're right. Really not sure what to make of that.

[Boromir88]

How do you know that's what happened on Day 1?
Hmm?

I'm willing to bet G55 and Huey had fun trolling us for 2 days in the QT.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

What is?

The Lommy comments?

Can't I find behaviour unhelpful and even suspicious without it automatically qualifying a person for being a quarantine candidate?

Or were you referring to something else?

It sounds, to me, like in the first post you're suspicious of her, then in the second, you absolutely don't want to vote her (which translates into not being suspicious of her, to me.) People change their minds, of course, but that seemed to take place in a very short timespan. It drew my eye because I suspect Lommy, so it was like, "Yeah, I agree with this - wait, what?"

[Pitchwife]

I would say most of our days have gone far too narrow. We put ourselves into pretty much just 2 options. Day 1 was G55 and Brinn. Day 2 Mac and Huey, Yesterday Inzil and sally. Today Lommy and Inzil.

I don't know a whole lot about the advocates for it, but I think we need a day where there's a lot more spread. Force the wolves into some tougher choices, instead of just picking between 2 innocents or whether they wanted to bus wolf-Huey or not.
This makes me really not want to vote Boro toDay.

I don't like doing this while he's away, and I've been second-guessing it quite a bit after Lhuna's vote and the QT vote, but I might as well.

++Eönwë

[Lalaith]

I'm willing to bet G55 and Huey had fun trolling us for 2 days in the QT.

so presumably you think Zil is innocent too?

[Pitchwife]

This post gives me all the creepy vibes.
Explain.

[Thinlómien]

Lhuna -> Eönwë
Eönwë -> Boro
QT -> Lhuna
Inzil -> Lommy
Lottie -> Boro 2
Greenie -> Zil
The Ka -> Lhuna 2
Pitchwife -> Eönwë 2

Half an hour to go. 7 votes left.

[Lalaith]

Ok. I've gone away, I've had a glass of wine and a think and here's what.

I feel quiet disempowered by yesterDay's shambles. I haven't had a proper chance to re-evaluate.
In the QT there are two people who successfully voted for a wolf (Kit and Legate)
I am going to trust them.
++Lhuna

[Pitchwife]

[Incidentally: +1000 posts on D4? Whole games have played out on less than half that. This is really insane.

++tweet-style character/post-capped game

TIG CXV - The Liar Tweets Tonight?]

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Shasta -> Sally 8

"-shrug emoji-" From a person who was pretty loud that we should lynch Sally regardless of her role? Really?

If my, like, two posts stating a differing opinion to the majority qualifies as "pretty loud", what does that make you? Ear-shattering? :p

Thoughts: I'm not super keen on Lalaith and Shasta's votes, the former voting Sally without even saying whether she believes her or not, the latter voting Sally despite thinking it's a bad idea. Brinn's attitude towards the whole debacle looks super safe, but not necessarily sinister.

I explained that already - I'm used to Hunters that the wolves have to kill, and you had a point; wolves wouldn't necessarily have had to kill a revealed Hunter here. Although I do think, as I type this, the case for a wolf-Lommy going all-out to get Hunter-Sally lynched to take down a non-wolf grows... and makes Lottie look better, maybe? Hmm. Pin in that.

Back to my train of thought - I fully thought Sally was a wolf; leaving the Hunter to the wolves was an option. No one seemed to really go for it, so I was fine voting for Sally in the end. Hence the shrug.

X'ed since my last.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Explain.

"Man, we really messed up, voting the Hunter like that. Aw, shucks."

Sounds rather "agreeable", no?

[A Little Green]

I think everyone who has votes so far is a possible wolf, so I don't have a particular interest in putting someone in the lead to save someone else (sounds cold-hearted, I know)
'I think everyone who has votes so far is a possible wolf, so I'll vote for a fifth person who is a likely candidate for getting lynched." - *ping*

Why ping if said fifth person is my top suspect but I don’t have a particular problem with any of the other candidates getting lynched either? In my head this makes perfect sense.

[Kath]

Granted, someone could have rushed to analyse Lhuna's posts. It's actually a good idea, but no one did so. Now it's a little late because it would probably take at least half an hour (unless someone is already at it?). But if Lhuna is alive toMorrow, maybe we should do the dead thread a favour and have a closer look at her.
I mean, I did for her first two Days and definitely thought she was suspicious, pretty much down to her involvement in the Kit discussion. I'll carry on now but it'll have to be speedy.

Post 394:
It just occurred to me... For all intents and purposes, a vote for G55 is still a vote for an innocent (i.e. non-wolf). Maybe it's worth looking at those who voted for G55 as well. So, shamelessly stealing and combining Boro's and Eönwë's lists (with the non-G55 or Rikae votes in double brackets)...
So she then finds me suspicious because she couldn't track my suspicion of G55; thinks Inzil was too confident in his vote for G55 given he hadn't particularly explained his suspicions; leaning innocent on Lottie; thinks Lommy is suspicious I think for being a bit gungho about the lynch of G55; some suspicion of Hui with thoughts of a Hui-Brinn wolf pair; suspicious of Brinn for the 'trap' comment that had come up quite a lot that Day.

Post 398
No one's asking the real Ranger to come out, and frankly I doubt it needs to be said.
In response to Lottie. I did agree with the sentiment, but my issue was that this was again putting the discussion back into the light.

Post 425
Wait let me see if I get this right. If Legate is innocent it could be easy to build a case against him, so you suspected Pitch because he picked on Legate. Then you eased up on suspecting Pitch because you did not want to be caught in a bandwagon that could be orchestrated by wolves.

I'm just... Lost. Shouldn't one back off from suspecting someone because of what they said, not because you're worried about what others would think if you end up voting for an innocent? Not helping your case here.
Continued suspicion of Brinn. Had Mac, Lommy and Brinn as her possible votes, though she seemed to be almost discounting Mac in the same statement for being too obvious.

Post 431
Votes Lommy. No actual explanation in the vote post. I didn't spot anything very substantial about Lommy bar the stuff about the G55 situation.

Post 661
Mentions about catching the Hui possible slip with the wolf emails comment.

With 5 wolves I'm not discounting a wolf on wolf even after the Huitrain started to gain serious steam (that did seem to come off left field didn't it?). But based on the voting alone I'm inclined to think Leggie innocent, it doesn't seem reasonable for a wolf to offer his packmate up to be sacrificed when he wasn't in real danger of getting lynched, or to try to convince others to vote for him.

Also, I'm not sure why Shasta appears innocent for holding his vote. It looked incredibly fishy to me, but I probably need a deeper reading for context.
This didn't stand out to me as much different to the rest of the discussion around the Hui votes. Interesting comment on Shasta.

Post 862
Gives her apologies for the no vote the Day before.

Thinks all Eonwe's votes have been suspicious; Shasta for holding his vote around the Hui lynch and flipflopping on sally; Boro for holding his vote on Hui and sort of just throwing in with the crowd on sally.

Post 948
Votes Eonwe.

My suspicion of him based on his voting pattern stands.

If Lommy and/or Boro are wolves, then their longevity as a pack would be better served by having a couple of relatively submarine packmates. And while I'm still convinced they're both suspicious, this village has so far had the bad habit of lynching those who are in the middle of the controversy of the Day who more often than not turn out to be innocent, and I'm sick of imagining the wolves cackling to themselves as they watch. Also, giving both of them one more Day and Night's worth of scrutiny should yield something a little bit more concrete.

i'm also not convinced about how Lommy explained that killing Legate as a possible Seer places Rune in a good light. I don't think Legate would have been that vocal about dreaming of him if he were the Seer.
This I think is one of her most explained votes. She isn't wrong about the controversy driven lynches!

Post 956

The most Seerish thing Legate did that stood out to me was encouraging a vote for Hui and looking for support. I think it's more likely he would stick his neck out, as we see in hindsight, to point out a wolf than an innocent, like he would have done with Rune on Day 1 in your scenario.

I say this because I've been thinking Rune might be another submarine wolf. Given that I suspect you, this could be a way for you to use a Seer-candidate's words to keep others from taking a closer look at Rune. And it bothers me that at least a couple of people have agreed with you about him.

Post 959

Differing Seer tactics, I guess. I certainly wouldn't single one person out as innocent on Day 1.
This came form debating Lommy about what to look for in terms of possible Seer hints.

Comments on the QT vote: Hmm. Interesting.

I've really just pulled the biggest things from each post as I was working through them fast.

I'll have cross posted with everything from 991 onwards.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Boro is connected to Lommy in my brain. I dunno if I think he's a wolf on his own merits, but I think there's a decent case for it if Lommy is wolvish. Hmm.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Why ping if said fifth person is my top suspect but I don’t have a particular problem with any of the other candidates getting lynched either? In my head this makes perfect sense.

Amen.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

I think Greenie is my best read at this point.

¯\_(ツ)_/¯ (<-- shrug emoji!)

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Post 862
Gives her apologies for the no vote the Day before.

Thinks all Eonwe's votes have been suspicious; Shasta for holding his vote around the Hui lynch and flipflopping on sally; Boro for holding his vote on Hui and sort of just throwing in with the crowd on sally.

This is probably my biggest ping re: Lhuna.

[Thinlómien]

Ok. I've gone away, I've had a glass of wine and a think and here's what.Maybe I should try this wolf-catching method too :D

[Incidentally: +1000 posts on D4? Whole games have played out on less than half that. This is really insane.

++tweet-style character/post-capped game

TIG CXV - The Liar Tweets Tonight?] I'm looking forward to you and Rune co-modding this in June. :smokin:

If my, like, two posts stating a differing opinion to the majority qualifies as "pretty loud", what does that make you? Ear-shattering?Touché.

I actually went and read Boro and Brinn's posts on Lhuna, and now there's Kath's. None of them are sources I would take without a pinch of salt :p, but they all do have some good arguments for Lhuna being a wolf. Plus, there's the weird bandwagon roll call she never explained, plus her quickly pointing out then shutting up about Huey's wolf slip.

Might as well put my money where my mouth is and vote before the last chaos minutes:

++Lhuna


Lhuna -> Eönwë
Eönwë -> Boro
QT -> Lhuna
Inzil -> Lommy
Lottie -> Boro 2
Greenie -> Zil
The Ka -> Lhuna 2
Pitchwife -> Eönwë 2
Lalaith -> Lhuna 3
Lommy -> Lhuna 4

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

I am not going to be around for the deadline, so I will have to vote and I will trust my self on this one.

I will vote Eonwe for a number of reasons, his interaction/thoughts on Legate on Day 1, his interactions/thoughts on Kitanna on day 2 and his interactions/thoughts on Lalaith yesterday to is some of the more wolfish behaviour I have seen. He appears helpful, but often it is non-content and often tempts to play it safe.

++ Eonwe

It just struck me that on a day where I have been of no help to the village I have managed to call two other villagers for either "unhelpful-helpful" and "non-vocal"...

[Shastanis Althreduin]

I have a point I'm having a very hard time articulating about Lottie being Hunter-Sally's percieved target and what that means. Maybe if I just post this, it'll help me get the words out in some sort of order.

[Boromir88]

so presumably you think Zil is innocent too?

He is not my preferred choice today, because I think we should take the signal from the QT. It's been my argument for several days now. I want to test this proposed voting and signals between here and the QT. Other than that reason, I couldn't say.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Lhuna/Pitch/Rune all on Eonwe, making him the counterwagon to Lhuna. I'm not sure how much I trust that.

[Kath]

I mean, looking through all of that didn't lessen my suspicions, and Lhuna was my second option for the lynch toDay so:

++LHUNA

Will have cross posted since my last.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

He is not my preferred choice today, because I think we should take the signal from the QT. It's been my argument for several days now. I want to test this proposed voting and signals between here and the QT. Other than that reason, I couldn't say.

If the QT hadn't voted for Lhuna, who's your preferred choice?

[Shastanis Althreduin]

I don't think a wagon I like more is going to come along at this late stage.

++Lhuna

[Boromir88]

If the QT hadn't voted for Lhuna, who's your preferred choice?

Lhuna is my preferred choice. But I'm considering making this interesting.

[Thinlómien]

Lhuna -> Eönwë
Eönwë -> Boro
QT -> Lhuna
Inzil -> Lommy
Lottie -> Boro 2
Greenie -> Zil
The Ka -> Lhuna 2
Pitchwife -> Eönwë 2
Lalaith -> Lhuna 3
Lommy -> Lhuna 4
Rune -> Eönwë 3
Kath -> Lhuna 5
Shasta -> Lhuna 6

Well this sure as angband isn't what I'd guessed the vote tally to build up to 2h ago :eek:

Really rather flummoxed but hopeful about toDay's outcome.

Crossing toes.

[Thinlómien]

I don't think a wagon I like more is going to come along at this late stage.

++LhunaVoting late enough again not to make a difference? Seeeeriously, Shasta.

[Boromir88]

I think I'm the last to vote? Kind of anti-climatic

++Eonwe

[Brinniel]

++Lhuna

[Shastanis Althreduin]

voting late enough again not to make a difference? Seeeeriously, shasta.

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Although I've said it once and I'll say it again - by holding my vote the day Huin was QTed, I very nearly made the most pivotal vote of the day. So if you think I'm doing it to avoid responsibility... you should rethink.

[Boromir88]

Understand I still hold the QT in the highest respect. And we shall see what happens.

[Pitchwife]

Crossing toes.
I'd like to see that!


The only reason I'm not happy with how this is going is if Lhuna doesn't turn out to be a wolf everybody will be able to hide behind the QT vote.

[Loslote]

The only reason I'm not happy with how this is going is if Lhuna doesn't turn out to be a wolf everybody will be able to hide behind the QT vote.

I agree with this. I am pretty hopeful that this could turn out to be a good lynch, though. We'll find out soon enough.

[Nogrod]

DEADLINE: PLEASE CEASE ALL POSTING!


Lhunardawen is moved into quarantine.


A narration will follow as soon as possible, in less than half an hour.

[Boromir88]

The only reason I'm not happy with how this is going is if Lhuna doesn't turn out to be a wolf everybody will be able to hide behind the QT vote.

Well, let's be honest, I'm the one who's been beating on about it for days, even after the original group said it's suspicious and evil-looking.

So, feel free to lynch me if I'm still a live and wrong

Edit: crossed with Nog.

[Nogrod]

Sador Labadal wasn’t a guy you immediately noticed when he stepped into a room. After the accident Sador had become more and more solitary, enjoying more or less only the occasions young Túrin spent with him. He had no family, no chance to serve at war, no particular skills but some basic carpentry – yet Húrin had seen him as a good man who served his father well and had offered him a place in his household.

This day it was different. Sador looked confused when people started turning to him with their suspicions. “Me? I haven’t done anything to merit notice! I’ve just helped around, as always.”

It seemed no-one had a really strong case against the old man, but most people still found him fishy in a way or another.

“He’s odd. He doesn’t sit with others or party with others.”

“He just hides in the corners”

“Have you ever heard him gossiping like a decent person would?”

“And he has touched most of the infected – he must at least have the illness himself just because of that!”



So there it was. Sador was voted to be moved into the quarantine.

The old man limped to the stairs and then turned towards the villagers. “Sorry guys, I’m not man anymore to stand up against those who wish me ill. But something inside me tells I should…”

He gave a pause and people saw his whole body starting to shake incontrollably. His eyes turned around in their sockets and drool started pouring out from his mouth.

“Quick now!” Algund shouted and Gethron rushed to help him. Together they pushed the ever more shaking and lowly growling body of the creature whom they had known as Sador inside the Hall – and bolted the door.


~*~


Dead, yes dead

Nogrod – “The Badger”, the Mod (dead on Night1)
Urwen – Glóredhel, healthy person (withered away in grief during Day2)


Quarantined

Galadriel55 – Andróg, the Cobbler (voted into QT on Day1)
Rikae – Haldir, formerly healthy person (infected by the shady Infectors on Night2)
Huinesoron – Hareth, an Infector (voted into QT on Day2)
Kitanna – Huor, the Ranger (infected in the woods by the Infectors on Night3)
Sally – Túrin, the Hunter (voted into QT on Day3)
Macalaure – Grithnir, healthy person (dragged into the QT by the Hunter on Day3)
Legate of Amon Lanc – Asgon, healthy person (infected sneakily on Night4)
Lhunardawen – Sador, an Infector (voted into QT on Day4)


Hanging around

Thinlómien
Loslote
Pitchwife
Kath
Inziladun
A Little Green
Boromir88
Lalaith
Brinniel
Eönwë
Rune Son of Bjarne
THE Ka
Shastanis Althreduin



It's now Night 5


Good Night, sleep tight.

[Nogrod]

Rían was fully awake when they came. She was indeed waiting for them.

“I know what you’re after. You and your Master want to destroy the Houses of Men. You spoiled Hareth, did away with Haldir and Glóredhel, then Huor and naturally… it’s my turn”. She made a pause. “You don’t know whether I carry a child within me, so you need to take care of it. You needed to make away even with little Túrin. So now you’ve come to ensure there is not going to be a cousin for him to raise the banner of the House of Hador.”

The three shadows kept silently at the door.

“I don’t know how you managed to sneak on my husband, but I know Húrin. He will not let you strike him unawares. There’s not man enough in you to take him. He will reveal you to all people and hack you in pieces!”

That was clearly enough for the Infectors. They came on her.

Rían screamed from the bottom of her lungs. Then she felt a hit in her head, and before she passed out, she felt her jaws forced open and alien drivel filling her mouth while a blade was carving her arm.

Several people had heard her screaming and rushed to her place only to find her lying unconsciously on the floor, dress torn and bloody, and an odd foam gushing from her mouth.


~*~


Dead, yes dead

Nogrod – “The Badger”, the Mod (dead on Night1)
Urwen – Glóredhel, healthy person (withered away in grief during Day2)


Quarantined

Galadriel55 – Andróg, the Cobbler (voted into QT on Day1)
Rikae – Haldir, formerly healthy person (infected by the shady Infectors on Night2)
Huinesoron – Hareth, an Infector (voted into QT on Day2)
Kitanna – Huor, the Ranger (infected in the woods by the Infectors on Night3)
Sally – Túrin, the Hunter (voted into QT on Day3)
Macalaure – Grithnir, healthy person (dragged into the QT by the Hunter on Day3)
Legate of Amon Lanc – Asgon, healthy person (infected sneakily on Night4)
Lhunardawen – Sador, an Infector (voted into QT on Day4)
Lalaith – Rían, healthy person (overrun and infected by the Infectors on Night5)


Hanging around

Thinlómien
Loslote
Pitchwife
Kath
Inziladun
A Little Green
Boromir88
Brinniel
Eönwë
Rune Son of Bjarne
THE Ka
Shastanis Althreduin



It’s now Day 5


After every Night there comes a Day.

[Inziladun]

Well, considering they only knew what we did, that was one nice hit by the QT. Can we have a repeat?
That said, it hardly begs reminding that if the QT picks an innocent toDay, that could still be an easy out for a wolf.

Quick take on the votes is that there are three categories: 1. Lhuna-voters; 2. Other bandwagons; and 3. Me, voting for Lommy alone :rolleyes:

Speaking of Lommy, her vote on Lhuna looks quite innocent. It would have been easy for her (or Lal, for that matter) to have gone with Boro, Steve, or me.

I don't recall anything Seer-like from Lal offhand.

[Loslote]

Final vote tally:

Lhuna -> Eönwë
Eönwë -> Boro
QT -> Lhuna
Inzil -> Lommy
Lottie -> Boro 2
Greenie -> Zil
The Ka -> Lhuna 2
Pitchwife -> Eönwë 2
Lalaith -> Lhuna 3
Lommy -> Lhuna 4
Rune -> Eönwë 3
Kath -> Lhuna 5
Shasta -> Lhuna 6
Boro -> Eönwë 4
Brinn -> Lhuna 7

That was a weird Day. I felt like the Lhuna bandwagon came out of nowhere, and really faced very little opposition. I therefore feel like some wolf-on-wolf voting probably happened yeterDay, and I don't know whether it's more likely to have been one of the early voters - maybe not expected the bandwagon to take off - one of the middle voters - hoping to look really good, as pivotal votes - or one of the late voters, once Lhuna's fate was sealed. I don't think anyone stuck their necks out trying to save her. Even Boro's "make it interesting" vote doesn't strike me as trying to save anyone.

[Inziladun]

That was a weird Day. I felt like the Lhuna bandwagon came out of nowhere, and really faced very little opposition. I therefore feel like some wolf-on-wolf voting probably happened yeterDay, and I don't know whether it's more likely to have been one of the early voters - maybe not expected the bandwagon to take off - one of the middle voters - hoping to look really good, as pivotal votes - or one of the late voters, once Lhuna's fate was sealed. I don't think anyone stuck their necks out trying to save her. Even Boro's "make it interesting" vote doesn't strike me as trying to save anyone.

Of the Lhuna voters, Ka's, Shata's, and Brinn's might seem the safest for her mates. Ka's came before it gained steam, the other two after it was decided.
With three wolves left, there had to be some on the other wagons too.

[Loslote]

But if Lhuna is alive toMorrow, maybe we should do the dead thread a favour and have a closer look at her.

Yes - definitely.

Could be read as a Seer hint? From her posts yesterDay, I don't see much confidence towards anyone's innocence or guilt. If anything, maybe they thought her previous Nights' dream was Legate, and that's why she was bummed to find him dead? Otherwise, not sure who they would've thought she dreamed on Night 4.

[Thinlómien]

Well, considering they only knew what we did, that was one nice hit by the QT. Can we have a repeat?Indeed! I was disbelievingly jubilant after the deadline, and my first thought was "is there a possibility Huine has actually spilled the names of his fellows in the dead thread by accident" :D (While sadly probably not, it is true that he can talk about his live fellows in an incriminating way and that way the qt innocents have access to evidence we don't. Something to consider... (Not that I'm saying we should always follow the qt vote, even though that would make this game easier. :D)

Quick take on the votes is that there are three categories: 1. Lhuna-voters; 2. Other bandwagons; and 3. Me, voting for Lommy alone Awww, don't forget Greenie voting for you alone. :p

I'm really baffled about the Lalaith kill. It's not what I expected at all. Uhh better her than the seer? I will take a look at her posts right now.

Btw, speaking of seer post analysis, does anyone remember a little exchange between me and Lhuna from yesterDay? I had analysed Legate's posts, and concluded that if the wolves had thought him the seer, then Rune looks innocent because Legate consistently called him innocent from Day1. Lhuna did her best to discredit this argument, saying the wolves wouldn't assume the seer to be so obvious. Now I can't think of a single reason why wolf-Lhuna would try to discredit a very sensible theory that points at packmate-Rune's innocence. Therefore, I'm even more convinced that Rune is innocent.


edit: xed with the last three posts

[Loslote]

Btw, speaking of seer post analysis, does anyone remember a little exchange between me and Lhuna from yesterDay? I had analysed Legate's posts, and concluded that if the wolves had thought him the seer, then Rune looks innocent because Legate consistently called him innocent from Day1. Lhuna did her best to discredit this argument, saying the wolves wouldn't assume the seer to be so obvious. Now I can't think of a single reason why wolf-Lhuna would try to discredit a very sensible theory that points at packmate-Rune's innocence. Therefore, I'm even more convinced that Rune is innocent.

Also, Rune's vote for Eonwe came at an interesting time yesterDay, when the Lhunawagon was looking like it would win. If he was a wolf, I would assume a wolf-on-wolf vote would look pretty appealing at that point. His tone in his vote post is pretty calm, too, which comes across as pretty innocent. I'm feeling okay about Rune toDay.

[Pitchwife]

Looking through Lalaith's posts right now, and the first thing to catch my eye was this:

Force the wolves into some tougher choices, instead of just picking between 2 innocents or whether they wanted to bus wolf-Huey or not. How do you know that's what happened on Day 1?
Hmm?
This is actually a very good question which I'd like Boro to answer.

[Brinniel]

Feeling a bit under the weather all day due to allergies. Will do my best to keep active toDay, but my energy is low and my brain foggy.

Lalaith twice voted for wolves and both times weren't necessarily safe votes, making her look more innocent to the village than not. But wolves must surely be seeking out the seer, so it's certainly worth looking at her posts.

There was a pretty large bandwagon against Lhuna and surely a wolf (or two) is hiding there.So looking at everyone's posts about her before the voting began will be useful too.

X-ed with multiple posts

[A Little Green]

I had a new look at everyone overNight based on their interactions with our two known wolves. (I actually made a colour-coded spreadsheet. No, I don’t have a life.) Based on this, I still haven’t seen anything to make me think better of Inzil, but I’m now also having serious misgivings about THE Ka and Kath, and reconsidering how much to trust Shasta. It’s past bedtime for me, but here’s the whole thing -

Lottie
Very unlikely packmate for Huin, somewhat unlikely for Lhuna. On D1 Lottie vocally agrees with Huin several times and points this out herself; on D2 votes to lynch Huin at a crucial moment. These don't look like packmate behaviour even taken separately, let alone as a combination. With Lhuna it’s a little more complicated. D1 Lottie says she won't vote for Lhuna. On D2 she suspects Lhuna for discussing Kitanna but later forgets to suspect her for it. Mostly what makes her look innocent though is when Pitch calls her out on omitting Lhuna she is open about her biased frame of mind that is due to having no prior suspicion of Lhuna. If Lottie and Lhuna are packmates, this is pretty brazen. D3 she puts Lhuna under "feel nothing about", D4 under "dubious"; D4 Lhuna says Lottie is likely innocent, and Lottie votes for Boro which is consistent with her suspicions at the time so doesn't give us much.

Pitchwife
Unlikely packmate for Huin, somewhat unlikely for Lhuna. As said before, Huin’s insistent focus on the GLP and particularly Pitch’s role in it makes them an unlikely pair. Again, interactions with Lhuna are less conclusive. On D1 Pitch puts Lhuna in "don't know yet" category. D2 he points out Lottie's omission of Lhuna in discussing who is incriminated by discussing Kitanna – this would be such an indirect way to wolf-on-wolf as not to earn him many brownie points, and makes me think them less likely fellows. D4 Lhuna says he is likely innocent, while he says Lhuna is a "slippery fish". He votes for Eonwe after QT vote for Lhuna, which is again consistent with his previous suspicions so doesn't tell us much.

Rune
Very possible packmate for Huin, somewhat unlikely for Lhuna. Barely interacts with Huin. With Lhuna, Rune doesn’t suspect her on D1-2 and even slightly defends her on D1. Meanwhile, Lhuna barely mentions him until listing him under “should look more closely” on D4 and voicing concern that he could be a submarine wolf. More interestingly, Lhuna vocally disagrees with Lommy’s conclusion that the Legate kill makes Rune look innocent; this makes me think them unlikely packmates, since if the village finds that good a reason to think a Runewolf innocent, undermining it on purpose seems odd. At the end of the Day, Rune says he would like to have a better look before voting Lhuna and won't just follow QT’s lead, and goes on to vote Eonwe. This is consistent with both his earlier suspicions and his earlier independent voting behaviour, and doesn’t seem too alarming.

Boro
Possible packmate for Huin, somewhat unlikely for Lhuna. This was a mess. Huin light-suspects Boro; on D2 Boro doesn't want to vote for Huin and votes for Mac at a crucial moment instead. On D2 Boro defends Lommy against Lhuna and doesn’t like Lhuna’s vote for Lommy. He flipflops pretty impressively on Lhuna during that day, saying he is wary of her suspicions but "overall feeling good", then later "perturbed" by her but uncomfortable voting for her since she is no longer around. On D3 he is still not comfortable with the Lommy vote and says he'll vote for Inzil or Lhuna. On D4 he speculates on a Lhuna-Lottie-Inzil pack, is first to pre-vote Lhuna but then ends up voting for Eonwe after Lhuna has a comfortable lead. I presume this was to keep another viable candidate in the voting in order to flush out potential wolves trying to save a packmate, and in my opinion makes him look better. Meanwhile, Lhuna somewhat suspects Boro from D2 onwards but doesn't act on it, which is fishy.

Lommy
Possible packmate for Huin, somewhat unlikely for Lhuna. As discussed ad nauseam before, Lommy and Huin mutually suspected each other at a level that would be just about comfortable for wolf-on-wolf. However, the interactions between Lommy and Lhuna mostly don’t look packmatey to me. D1-2 Lommy finds Lhuna innocent and doesn't want to lynch her. Then D2 Lhuna votes for Lommy with barely a reason, which would be odd for wolf-on-wolf – surely if she wanted to make herself look better by wolf-on-wolfing she’d try to come up with a reason for it? After this Lommy freaks out about Lhuna’s throwaway comment on bandwagons in a way I don’t think she would if it was her packmate wolf-on-wolf voting her out of the blue. D3 Lommy points out how Lhuna noticing Huin's slip would be perfectly plausible for packmates, which I’m not sure their packmate would be in a hurry to point out as, in retrospect, it was a fairly strong argument against a wolf who wasn’t that much suspected at the time – and especially as Lommy herself said she only “low key suspected” Lhuna. If she actually wanted to make herself look better by bussing a packmate, handing out a solid argument for ammunition yet keeping away from it herself doesn’t strike me as the best way to do it. D4 they suspect each other and Lommy is fourth to vote for Lhuna. The vote placement was arguably one of the most crucial ones, but then, if Lommy is a wolf after all, she badly needed something to make herself look better. If she judged Lhuna to be a goner, this would have been a great way to slither back into the village’s good books.

Brinn
Somewhat possible packmate for both. With Huin it’s inconclusive: on D1 Huin vocally defends Brinn and votes to save her; on D2 Brinn votes for Huin. Could be packmates, with Brinn voting for Huin on D2 in an attempt to distance herself from him; or could be Huinwolf trying to buddy up to an innocent Brinn. With Lhuna things are a bit more straightforward but equally inconclusive. They basically suspect each other since D2. Lhuna speculates about a Brinn-Huin wolf pair, which would be pretty evil if Brinn and Huin really were her packmates – though admittedly this theory was pretty obvious at the time and had been mentioned by others before Lhuna. On D3 Brinn feels worse about Lhuna, does an analysis and finds her suspicious but doesn't consider voting her as she hasn't been around; on D4 Lhuna has downgraded Brinn to a "should look more closely" -category, while Brinn is the seventh to vote for Lhuna. I don’t think this vote tells us much about whether they were fellows, as it’s consistent with Brinn’s previous suspicions and, more importantly, Lhuna was already a goner by this point so voting for her would have been an easy (if limited value) brownie point for a fellow wolf.

Eonwe
Somewhat possible packmate for both. D2 casts deciding vote on Huin, though as discussed before, if he was aware of this at the time he would have known it was a choice between bussing a packmate or looking pretty bad himself the next Day for casting a deciding vote in a bandwagon against innocent Mac. From D2 to D4 Eonwe says Lhuna seems fine or is mostly good, until later on D4 Lhuna has moved to "unsure, neutral" on his list; D2 Lhuna makes a point against Eonwe but in the same post says her vote choices for the Day are Lommy, Brinn or Boro; D4 Lhuna elaborates on her argument against Eonwe and votes for him. Very interestingly given Lhuna’s alignment, Eonwe was both the person she voted and the other most serious candidate for lynching yesterDay. This makes him seem a little better since it would be pretty wild if the top candidates for lynch were fellow wolves one of whom voted for the other. Still possible, I guess.

Kath
Very possible packmate for Huin, somewhat possible for Lhuna. Barely interacts with Huin. Lhuna barely mentions her. D1 Kath berates Lhuna for Nilping; D3 says Lhuna would've been her second choice for lynchee due to her role in discussing Kit; D4 wants to hear more from her as still suspects her for same reason, pre-votes Inzil or Lhuna, and is fifth to vote for Lhuna. This is very consistent with her earlier suspicions, which also means that if Kath is a wolf who suspected her fellow Lhuna earlier, she didn’t really have a choice. At the time she voted, it was pretty much between Lhuna and Eonwe. A vote for her other top suspect, Inzil, would have been considered a throwaway vote at that point, and incriminating if Lhuna did end up lynched like she did. (Sidenote: if Inzil does turn out to be a wolf, Kath looks better, as I'm not sure if she'd really have two packmates as her very clear top suspects for two Days in a row.)

Shasta
Possible packmate for both. With Huin, they barely interacted with each other and on D2 Shasta voted only after Huin was already a goner. I don’t think this vote placement is as fishy as some others do, but I also don’t think it tells us anything about Shasta’s role or his relationship with Huin. With Lhuna, Shasta says on D1 that the self-vote isn't alignment-indicative; Lhuna suspects Shasta since D3 but doesn't act on it; and on D4 Shasta is sixth to vote for Lhuna, saying that he doesn't think a wagon he likes more is going to materialise. I appreciate the sentiment if he’s innocent, but this could also be Shastawolf code for “I think my fellow is a goner so might as well bus her”. I still get generally innocent vibes from Shasta and think his subtle attempt to protect Kitanna is a point in favour of his innocence, but at the same time his interactions with our two known wolves would be consistent with his being their packmate.

THE Ka
Very possible packmate for Huin, possible for Lhuna. Barely interacts with either wolf, except for a noticeably long explanation on D1 about how Lhuna’s time constraints make her hard to read. This stood out to me on rereading as something Ka might not go into such detail about if she didn’t have a reason to have thought about Lhuna to such an extent already on D1. On the other hand, she is the first to vote for Lhuna after the QT vote, which would be a very bold move if wolf-on-wolf. Then again, quite a few people had expressed suspicion of Lhuna so it’s possible Ka calculated that she was a likely lynchee after the QT vote and wanted to make herself look good by bussing her – or alternatively, she could have calculated that someone else was a more likely lynch (it was still fairly early on).

Inzil
Very possible packmate for both. I’m trying very hard to avoid my earlier tunnel vision problem here (sorry Mac :o) and expected to find something between Inzil and Lhuna that would make him look less suspicious, but – nope. His interactions with Huin were, as previously discussed, mutual suspicion without votes either way, and Inzil voting for Mac on D2 in a way that could have been an attempt to save Huin. Meanwhile he and Lhuna barely mention each other; on D4 Inzil says the QT pick is "interesting" but Lhuna isn't his first choice, and votes for Lommy in the same post. This is certainly consistent with his crusade against Lommy that started pretty much the minute D4 began and that I’m still not comfortable with; but as pretty much the only time either of them expresses an opinion about the other, it looks pretty bad.

--

As for the Lalaith kill - my initial thought is that she made herself look pretty innocent with her voting record. There was an interesting pattern with Lalaith, actually. Both wolf lynches, she follows a (more or less) known innocent’s lead and votes for the wolf while saying she doesn’t really want to, and regardless of having a better reason for voting for an alternative candidate (Mac on D2, Eonwe on D4). This would have been both ruthless and mostly unnecessary for a Lalwolf, and in my opinion at least made her look very innocent.

That said, I really, really don't think the wolves can afford not to try and off the Seer at this (or any) stage, as s/he becomes increasingly dangerous to them the longer s/he lives. I can't keep my eyes open long enough to look into it, so I'll let someone else go through her posts and look for potential Seer clues. The only thing that immediately occurs to me is how vocal she was about trusting Kitanna on D2. This could maybe have been interpreted as a Seer who had dreamed her after her slip the Day before.

[Boromir88]

Looking through Lalaith's posts right now, and the first thing to catch my eye was this:


This is actually a very good question which I'd like Boro to answer.

I already answered yesterday and won't say anymore. If you want to know it's easy to find. I'm rather surprised, grateful, but surprised.

If I recall, evil side holds the tie-breaker, because Lhuna was the last lynch. But 6-3 advantage means we'd have to have a bunch of squabbling innocents in order to get a bad QT vote.

I'm certainly going to continue the good ground we began yesterday with the QT vote and feel I should get a tiny apology. Not a big one, but a small one, because the living and dead worked together and we did what I advocated we should have done for days.

[Pitchwife]

I already answered yesterday and won't say anymore. If you want to know it's easy to find. I'm rather surprised, grateful, but surprised.
You mean this, which you posted in reply to Lal's question?
I'm willing to bet G55 and Huey had fun trolling us for 2 days in the QT.
I don't see how this is an answer.

I'm certainly going to continue the good ground we began yesterday with the QT vote and feel I should get a tiny apology. Not a big one, but a small one, because the living and dead worked together and we did what I advocated we should have done for days.
Considering that yesterDay was the first Day this actually made sense, it'll have to be a small one.

[Pitchwife]

Lalaith's suspects, as of yesterDay:
I could vote Eonwe, Brinn, or Boro, (same as my suspect list of yesterday) and could also be persuaded to Lommy and even Shasta. (for easons see my posts above)[...]
Btw I was skim-reading as much as I could, looking for stuff Legate had said that could have made the wolves think he was a Seer.
I didn't find anything precise but i did find this: he pointed out that Hui's saving of Brinn looked wolfy. That makes me feel better about voting Brinn, particularly as Hui was a first-time and therefore possibly not very tricksy wolf.
Two of these (Eönwë and Lommy) were also quite consistently suspected by Lhuna, which could be a point in their favour. Now I don't recall playing with Lhuna before, so to those who have: How much wolf-on-wolf do you think she'd be willing to engage in?

[Boromir88]

You mean this, which you posted in reply to Lal's question?

I don't see how this is an answer.


Yep. You can put it together to make sense of it. Unless you're trying to get me to commit to something I'm not going to, at the moment?

[Pitchwife]

Yep. You can put it together to make sense of it. Unless you're trying to get me to commit to something I'm not going to, at the moment?
So I suppose you're talking bout this, right?
"I'm voting G55 to avoid Brinn getting lynched" = wolf having trouble trying to create fake suspicions. So his reasoning isn't based on faked suspicions, but on what he KNOWS. Brinn is innocent.
If you're convinced that was his reasoning, fair enough, I suppose.

[Thinlómien]

Day 1

Comments on the village events (amount of posting, fake vote discussion) on a very general level. Baffled by Lhuna's self-vote, but that's it. Was largely absent, apologised for this on Day2 and cited RL reasons.


Day 2

First post: mildly suspects Legate, Boro, and Brinn, doesn't suspect Sally or Mac. This phrasing caught my eye:

Good feelings about Greenie, who I thought was reading posts carefully and thinking about things in a genuine and sensible way which feels unwolflike. Zil is coming across in a similarly honest way.

Could the wolves have read this as her subtly mentioning her Night1 and Night2 dreams by lumping them together like that? I mean, timing-wise it would make sense for a seer who missed most Day1 to state her business quickly like this in her first post on Day2, while hiding it in a flow of general commentary of half a dozen villagers who caught her attention. But not really sure if this would stand out to anyone else really, I might be grasping at straws. For reference, the post is here (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showthread.php?p=723591#post723591).

Discusses wolf strategies, disagreeing with THE Ka. Says she doesn't suspect Eönwë. Replies to Kath's question by saying that had she been around, she'd have wanted to vote Legate or Boro on Day1.

Reluctantly takes part in the Kitscussion.

I've been asking questions which no-one has listened to or answered. For example, why are some people still suspecting Kit.
On the subject of which, I've been re-reading and found a couple of other people I feel quite good about.However "other people" amounts to just one: Lottie. Boro is still "weird" and Legate suspicious.

Ugh. I don't like the choices on this lynch list. Not particularly suspicious of any of them.
Brinn would be my least worst choice but it sticks in the craw to have my vote dictated by a cobbler.
If I vote for Legate will I be throwing away my vote? The votes were Mac 3, Lommy 2, Huine / Lottie / Brinn / Inzil 1 at this point.

Voted Huine, citing trust in Kit as a reason. Still didn't like doing so.

Thoughts: I quite like my conspiracy theory about Greenie/Inzil (*gasp* yes I like a thery that points to Zil's innocence! :p) but it is perhaps more prudent to assume the wolves thought Lalaith had dreamt of Kit, given how defensive/trusting she was of her. Other suspected dream in that case? I guess it could be any of Greenie/Zil/Sally/Lottie/Mac, nothing really stands out to me in particular so hard to say of anything would have stood out to the wolves either. Also given Lalaith's erratic early presence, maybe the wolves even optimistically speculated a seer!Lalaith may have missed her Night1 dream?


Day 3

Zil can I say that despite my earlier good feelings about you I don't like this as a reaction to the HueywaggonPut this as a quote because I'm debating whether it makes Zil a more or less likely "seer dream".

Seriously? Logically, the only thing [Kitanna] could have been, other than the ranger, was the seer. Yesterday, I repeatedly asked people who doubted her innocence for justification and got none.
I did wonder about this yesterDay, and when that vote she led against Huey turned out so effective I really did think she really was the Seer. But well done KitRanger for leading us to catch the wolf. Hope you're celebrating in QT! I guess the wolves could have read this as frustration from the seer about the ranger death, especially is she had dreamed of her?

Questions Brinn's for "pot calling the kettle black"ey suspicions.

1. Does Legate's first vote for Hui mean that I was wrong to suspect him yesterDay?
2. Does Hui's 3rd vote for Mac point to his (Mac's) innocence?

Says "Now something today about Eonwe didn't sit right and I went back over his posts" and goes off to build a case (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=724079&postcount=680)against him. If I recall correctly, she persisted in this suspicion of Eönwë. This is certainly not a point in his favour. Concludes the post with the rather forceful "Really. This does not look good."

Asks Greenie to clarify her contradictory seeming reasoning.

Quotes a whole post from Kath about the Kitscussion that concludes Eönwë is suspicious, and says: "Kath this is all very interesting. Did you see my post #680? We seem to be on similar trains of thought." Would a pack with Wolfwë read this as the seer fishing for support for her case against a dreamed wolf?

Her thoughts about Day3 voting:So much unanimity on Sally is a bit unsettling.
So I would rather go Eonwe (from the dodgy behaviour stated in my earlier post) or Boro toDay. Brinn would be acceptable (Second time taunt from QT - really?)
I am still not completely happy with Legate but because of his Huivote I feel a bit better and won't vote for him toDay.

Nervous about Sally's pick, which she later explained pushed her to vote Sally (or to be precise: Sally not telling us her pick made her suspicious).

Thoughts: this does not look good for Eönwë at all.


Day 4

Expresses unhappiness about recent innocent deaths.

Thinks my bloodlust on Day3 was scary.

Yes... my gut feeling was that most of the people panicking at the end there were bewildered innocents. Rune for example feels innocent to me as a result of DL behaviour. And Legate's reactions - I started feeling a lot better about him. A bit late now of course [rolleyes smiley] This I presume is what Lottie referred to just now when she said Lalaith's Legate comment could have been interepreted as frustration for losing her dream of the Night before? Nice catch, but it doesn't necessarily make me feel better about Lottie that she was able to summon this snippet so easily.

One thing that occurs to me before I turn in - if Lommy is a wolf then Lottie is probably not and vice versa.

Says she should have voted Eönwë the Day before. Disagrees with Zil suspicion. "Mostly feeling good" about Pitch and Rune, and "Greenie I have had good feelings about all game but I need to check to see if anything happened yesterDay to change that. "

Says my judging people who did not want to vote Sally yet did is "too much" because I was "stomping all over the thread shouting at us about voting for Sally, we could barely get a word in edgeways!"

Points out my leaving out her case against Eönwë in my vote summary (tbh absolutely validly; I had criticised her for - if I recalled correctly - her not having other suspects than Legate and it turned out to be blatantly untrue), calls me bloodthirsty again. Repeats her "mea culpaing" about failing to vote anyone else than Sally.

Wants to wait for the QT vote. "I feel still feel bad and somewhat dispirited about the shambles of yesterDay."

As for suspicions:
I haven't really moved on much from my suspect list of yesterDay. I could add Lommy on there - I admire her chutzpah toDay but I still think her behaviour was suspicious, particularly in her refusal to acknowledge the benefit of having HunterSally as a known innocent.

I would also put Shasta on my 'watch' list. For the reasons, (ironically enough) that Lommy states in her recent analysis.

I still feel I haven't got any kind of handle on Lhuna, Ka and, to some extent, Kath.
Which probably means they are all brilliant wolves. [smoker smiley]

(Of candidates discussed?) would prefer to vote Eonwe, Brinn, or Boro, and says could be persuaded to vote Lommy or Shasta.

Thinks Legate's point about Hui protecting Brinn makes Brinn look more innocent.

Then there's this, which I think greatly added to people starting discussing Lhuna as a lynch option:OK I think it's a bit rude that we are completely ignoring the QT vote. I'm saying that in the spirit of someone who (as per my previous post) hasn't really looked at Lhuna.

Another thing that is slightly unsettling me is that I was all set to vote for Eonwe but now the QT has dissed the person who was the first to vote for him. Hmm. Not sure what to make of this, possibly makes her look less convinced about Eönwë? Or less trusting of QT??

Then there's the already quoted bit about "yes, definitely" having to look at Lhuna if she's not lynched.

Questions Boro's wolfy phrasings, asks if he thinks Zil is innocent.

Vote:
I feel quiet disempowered by yesterDay's shambles. I haven't had a proper chance to re-evaluate.
In the QT there are two people who successfully voted for a wolf (Kit and Legate)
I am going to trust them.
++Lhuna

Thoughts: leaning towards agreeing with Lottie that if the wolves thought Lalaith was the seer, they thought her Night4 dream had been Legate.


Conclusions: if the wolves killed Lalaith for looking like the seer (and why wouldn't they gun for the seer?), I think they assumed she dreamed of Kit on Night1 or 2 and Legate on Night 4. The other Night 1/2 dream would have been presumed to be innocent Greenie or innocent Zil, or perhaps Mac or even Sally. For Night3 the rather obvious conclusion is wolf!Eönwë. I mean no other theory seems half as plausible.

Therefore I am very suspicious of Eönwë.


edit: xed with #1055 onwards

[Boromir88]

If you're convinced that was his reasoning, fair enough, I suppose.

You got it.

Congrats on your milestone, I see you have surpassed 3,000 posts. :)

[Inziladun]

Inzil:Meanwhile he and Lhuna barely mention each other; on D4 Inzil says the QT pick is "interesting" but Lhuna isn't his first choice, and votes for Lommy in the same post. This is certainly consistent with his crusade against Lommy that started pretty much the minute D4 began and that I’m still not comfortable with; but as pretty much the only time either of them expresses an opinion about the other, it looks pretty bad.

I'm still rather hurt I didn't merit a mention in her list (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=724362&postcount=865).

I really, really don't think the wolves can afford not to try and off the Seer at this (or any) stage, as s/he becomes increasingly dangerous to them the longer s/he lives. I can't keep my eyes open long enough to look into it, so I'll let someone else go through her posts and look for potential Seer clues. The only thing that immediately occurs to me is how vocal she was about trusting Kitanna on D2. This could maybe have been interpreted as a Seer who had dreamed her after her slip the Day before.

Well, the Seer is the prime target always. It's only when they really don't see compelling signs that they'll just go for one unlikely to be lynched.

[Thinlómien]

Greenie's analysis is very interesting and informative. I'm trying to take it with a pinch of salt, but it's exactly the kind of important data I've been too lazy to harvest myself so I'm very thirsty for it. Also I have to say that if Greenie is a wolf she's putting admirably much effort into something that doesn't hugely benefit her. (Sure, good way to find unfortunate innocents who might have been implicated by the deaths of her fellows. But likely hard to not end up implicating her remaining fellows to a degree in the process?)

Now I don't recall playing with Lhuna before, so to those who have: How much wolf-on-wolf do you think she'd be willing to engage in? I don't have a particular recollection about that, but she has a thing for doing brash things while somehow not appearing quite as brash. Look how she got away with self-voting on Day1 as a wolf in this game! I certainly wouldn't entirely discredit even brutal wolf-on-wolf from her.

[Thinlómien]

Btw about QT -

there's still a nice innocent majority there (or, nice and nice, not sure dead innocents outnumbering dead baddies is a good thing ;)) but there's three baddies and Lhuna is the tie breaker, so if the innocents disagree with each other and mess it up, there's a chance the baddies can wrestle control of the QT vote.

This actually possibly more as a reminder to the QT than ourselves.

(Who are probably very well aware of this and thanking me right now for being a Captain Obvious but I still wanted to put this in here. Never overestimate the intelligence of your fellow ww players. :p)

[Thinlómien]

Also still about QT - if we want to orchestrate some communication deal with them, or if we want to agree to vote BEFORE them, then now would be the time to discuss that.

Meanwhile I'm out because it's late and tbh theoretical ww talk gives me headache :p

[Loslote]

A list

Feeling good about:
Pitch - Same as previous Days, I think he's seemed genuine, and I don't think it's likely he and Huin were packmates.
Rune - Lhuna arguing against his innocence, and the innocent feel of his vote yesterDay, leave me feeling pretty good about him.

Feeling okay about:
Greenie - I really liked her analysis post just now. I've had a bit of a hard time reading her throughout the game, but I'm feeling okay about her for now.
Eonwe - I don't think he and Lhuna are likely packmates. I don't have a great read on him, but I don't suspect him at this point.
Shasta - He's done some innocent looking things, and I haven't gotten any kind of wolfy vibes from him. He hasn't gotten his hands dirty enough to prove himself either way, though.

Feeling torn about:
Lommy - Lhuna voting for Lommy early on Day 2 seems like an unlikely wolf-on-wolf vote. I don't think it's likely that they were packmates, so despite my earlier suspicion of her, I've moved Lommy out of my suspicious groups.
Kath - She feels genuine and I feel inclined to trust her, but she could certainly be a submarine wolf. I don't really suspect her, but I haven't seen enough to be confident in trusting her.
Brinn - She's still flying under my radar somehow. I almost feel an instinctive suspicion, but she looks better when I think logically, so I am super torn on her. Leaning innocent for now.

Feeling bad about:
Ka - I've been suspicious since her vote for me Day 2, which I thought could easily have been a wolf trying to keep her hands clean. I went back to her vote post yesterDay, and the tone just felt practiced and non-committal, and she spent like half of it talking about the QT dynamics. She also didn't seem to be talking as though she was expecting a huge bandwagon, so she might have voted for a fellow wolf assuming a) she'd look better if her packmate did get lynched and b) it wasn't super likely to happen anyway. I'm starting to seriously suspect her, and per Greenie's list, she is one of few people who makes a lot of sense as a packmate to both Huin and Lhuna.
Zil - Sometimes the obvious wolf is actually a wolf... Zil would make sense as a packmate for Huin and Lhuna, almost too much so. I definitely still suspect him, but I'd rather go for Ka[b] toDay.
Boro - His vote yesterDay felt more innocent, but it could have been a double bluff by a wolf. I still suspect him for sure, but again, I'd rather go for [b]Ka toDay.

At this point, if I had to guess, I would guess that the remaining wolves are Ka, Zil, and Boro. Otherwise, maybe someone like Brinn, Greenie, or Shasta, who give off good vibes but haven't "proven" themselves to my satisfaction. I would like to vote for one of my top three, though, and I think I am most suspicious of Ka.

[Boromir88]

I don't have a particular recollection about that, but she has a thing for doing brash things while somehow not appearing quite as brash. Look how she got away with self-voting on Day1 as a wolf in this game! I certainly wouldn't entirely discredit even brutal wolf-on-wolf from her.

It's been quite a long time.

I can see her going with a planned sacrifice if she thought it would help her packmates. Particularly if it bought her mates a couple days of perceived innocence.

It's not impossible, but I find wolf-on-wolf less likely. It felt similar to Huey's lynch, sort of unexpected. She was my preferred choice, but I don't appear to be a trusted figure amongst the living. I don't think Lhuna was considered an option until the QT vote.

It tells me that dead innocents trusted someone here yesterday and Lhuna's lynch took the pack possibly by surprise. It wasn't nearly as hectic as Huey's lynch, but I don't see a pre-planned "sacrifice Lhuna" plot from anyone yesterday.

[Pitchwife]

Congrats on your milestone, I see you have surpassed 3,000 posts.
Thanks! Playing Werewolf does that to you...


I don't have a particular recollection about that, but she has a thing for doing brash things while somehow not appearing quite as brash
This is actually a good description of the general feeling I got from her posts.


Btw about QT -

there's still a nice innocent majority there (or, nice and nice, not sure dead innocents outnumbering dead baddies is a good thing ;)) but there's three baddies and Lhuna is the tie breaker, so if the innocents disagree with each other and mess it up, there's a chance the baddies can wrestle control of the QT vote.
It's 6:3 now; Hui & Lhuna can PM behind the others' backs, and we can count on G55 to vote with whatever the wolves come up with, so yes, a concerted baddie action to derail the QT vote is not out of the question. We'll all have to see what the Cuties come up with and decide whether we're willing to trust it.


I need to sleep over all this now. See you all later.

[Loslote]

It's been quite a long time.

I can see her going with a planned sacrifice if she thought it would help her packmates. Particularly if it bought her mates a couple days of perceived innocence.

It's not impossible, but I find wolf-on-wolf less likely. It felt similar to Huey's lynch, sort of unexpected. She was my preferred choice, but I don't appear to be a trusted figure amongst the living. I don't think Lhuna was considered an option until the QT vote.

It tells me that dead innocents trusted someone here yesterday and Lhuna's lynch took the pack possibly by surprise. It wasn't nearly as hectic as Huey's lynch, but I don't see a pre-planned "sacrifice Lhuna" plot from anyone yesterday.

It absolutely felt like it came out of nowhere. There were three other wolves out there. I'd guess that at least one, maybe two voted before the Lhunawagon - Eonwe, Zil, me, Greenie, I'd even put Ka and Pitch in that group - and one or two wolves saw the tide coming and jumped right on board. I think if the wolves were voting at a time when it was still possible to steer the vote - Lalaith, Lommy, Rune, Kath - the Lhunawagon probably wouldn't have felt so seamless. I could see wolf among Shasta, Boro, and Brinn for that reason. I don't have a good sense for which people in each group might have been particularly suspicious, though.

[Boromir88]

Feeling bad about:
Ka - I've been suspicious since her vote for me Day 2, which I thought could easily have been a wolf trying to keep her hands clean. I went back to her vote post yesterDay, and the tone just felt practiced and non-committal, and she spent like half of it talking about the QT dynamics. She also didn't seem to be talking as though she was expecting a huge bandwagon, so she might have voted for a fellow wolf assuming a) she'd look better if her packmate did get lynched and b) it wasn't super likely to happen anyway. I'm starting to seriously suspect her, and per Greenie's list, she is one of few people who makes a lot of sense as a packmate to both Huin and Lhuna.


Good take on Ka's vote for Lhuna yesterday.

*adds Ka to mental list of people to analyze today* Hopefully it's a list I don't forget.

[Eönwë]

Wow, it looks like yesterDay got exciting after I left! It's pretty crazy how we've had two last-minute bandwaggons ending in an Infector being quarantined.

Will be back with more once I've had a chance to properly catch up on what's happened since I last posted.

[Eönwë]

The discussion about Legate's possible seerishness and implications bears more looking over (Zil, Lommy, Lhuna, THE Ka, Brinn - anyone else? Will need to look back over the whole day). I wouldn't be surprised if there were at least one other Infector in that group.

Later in the Day there's a specific discussion on the topic involving Rune - Lommy seems to think that if the Infectors thought Legate was the seer this makes Rune seem good, Brinn agrees, Lhuna disagrees, they get into a debate, and THE Ka joins on the side of Lommy. I wonder about this because I actually found myself agreeing with Lhuna while reading this, but clearly she was evil. And thinking about it some more I think I agree with Lommy. Also, since this was before the QT vote for Lhuna, there was no reason for anyone to distance themselves from her, so we have to assume the responses are genuine, or at least not tainted by the fact that Lhuna was a possible quarantine-candidate. One thing I wonder whether it would occur to an innocent to look through Legate's suspicions in such a way, but then again, I haven't played in a long while... In any case, I think the discussion there feels a little bit like there may be some re-hashing of the previous Night's discussion, so I'm a bit wary of Lommy, THE Ka, Brinn. And given that this is an indirect way of defending or not defending Rune, this could go either way for him - either he's being soft-suspected by a fellow (Lhuna) or put brought back to the table (i.e. returned to being a possible vote). Either is plausible. Addendum after reading (#1053 - whoa, over 1000 posts?!): looks like Lommy still supports this reading.


Also, another thing to look at is the pushback against the QT-vote-waggon now that we know Lhuna's role. There are obviously many innocent reasons to be suspicious, but I find it unlikely that no Infector was on that side. On the other hand, I would be surprised if all Infectors were on that side - joining a sudden vote-waggon for your packmate is probably a good way to avoid suspicion). One thing that might be interesting is to look at people's claimed reasons for voting Lhuna, which came pretty much out of nowhere - in this case it might be that over-justified votes are more suspicious than the under-justified ones, though the latter still merit wariness.

[Brinniel]

Reviewing yesterDay and toDay - some general thoughts:

Lommy voted Lhuna at a critical moment which makes me think her more innocent than not. That said, I do find Inzil's attack on her suspicious and there's nothing in his interactions with Lhuna that change that.

Lottie I also find more innocent due to reasons I stated yesterDay. I won't completely discount the possibility she could be a very bold wolf, but I find it less likely.

In light of learning Lhuna's role, I do actually find Eonwe to be more likely genuine. I looked back at the earlier part of yesterDay and he was gaining a fair amount a suspicion along with Lommy, Boro, and Inzil. Knowing there could be a chance he could be lynched, I don't think Lhuna would've voted him if he were a packmate.

Kath I've found to be more innocent because I've agreed with her top suspicions the past couple Days. If I'm completely wrong about Inzil, I'd reconsider her.

I analyzed The Ka a couple Days ago and couldn't come up with any solid conclusions on her. Looking at her posts yesterDay, I noticed she writes more about play tactics than focusing on other players. It seems the entire reasoning she voted Lhuna was because she trusted the QT vote. Okay, I don't recall her having any opinions of Lhuna beforehand. This could potentially be a wolf-on-wolf vote hiding behind the QT vote, especially if she didn't expect the bandwagon that followed.

Greenie and Boro I go back and forth on. Part of me is inclined to trust them and another part of me says don't.

And Lommy - thank you for your Lalaitholysis as I am too tired to do that sort of analysis myself. I don't necessarily agree with all of your conclusions, but I can see how the wolves could've thought she may have been the seer.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

I don't think I recall Lhuna ever posting after the wagon started to turn her way, which - I'm not one to judge people's availability (by any means :rolleyes: ) but I don't really feel like the wagon was ever going to turn away from Lhuna. Kind of just a feeling I have, like, she was always going to be the QT.

¯\_(ツ)_/¯ (it's my new favorite thing, seriously)

I have yet to shake my bad feeling where Lommy is concerned. I entirely realize I'm not backing this up with much.

Point of data - the QTs each day have been people I haven't focused much effort on, feels like, maybe that's why I've felt so shruggy about them.

Greenie still my top read, that hasn't changed. Boro feels almost as "and what?" as I do currently. Starting to think he's not as connected to Lommy as I thought. Maybe. :confused:

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Did Pitch ask me for an explanation of a post of his I thought was creepy and them never respond, or am I misremembering that?

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Reviewing yesterDay and toDay - some general thoughts:

Lommy voted Lhuna at a critical moment which makes me think her more innocent than not. That said, I do find Inzil's attack on her suspicious and there's nothing in his interactions with Lhuna that change that.

Lottie I also find more innocent due to reasons I stated yesterDay. I won't completely discount the possibility she could be a very bold wolf, but I find it less likely.

In light of learning Lhuna's role, I do actually find Eonwe to be more likely genuine. I looked back at the earlier part of yesterDay and he was gaining a fair amount a suspicion along with Lommy, Boro, and Inzil. Knowing there could be a chance he could be lynched, I don't think Lhuna would've voted him if he were a packmate.

Kath I've found to be more innocent because I've agreed with her top suspicions the past couple Days. If I'm completely wrong about Inzil, I'd reconsider her.

I analyzed The Ka a couple Days ago and couldn't come up with any solid conclusions on her. Looking at her posts yesterDay, I noticed she writes more about play tactics than focusing on other players. It seems the entire reasoning she voted Lhuna was because she trusted the QT vote. Okay, I don't recall her having any opinions of Lhuna beforehand. This could potentially be a wolf-on-wolf vote hiding behind the QT vote, especially if she didn't expect the bandwagon that followed.

Greenie and Boro I go back and forth on. Part of me is inclined to trust them and another part of me says don't.

And Lommy - thank you for your Lalaitholysis as I am too tired to do that sort of analysis myself. I don't necessarily agree with all of your conclusions, but I can see how the wolves could've thought she may have been the seer.

There's something about this post that I distrust - Brinn's reads of Greenie and Boro seem so very generic, it seems like it would have been very easy to place Pitch/Rune/myself there as well if she didn't have really anything to say about the three of us - but we were omitted entirely.

Obviously I know I'm not a wolf, so it's not (necessarily) a case of Brinnwolf forgetting her packmates. But it bothers me, even if maybe it shouldn't.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

It's 6:3 now; Hui & Lhuna can PM behind the others' backs, and we can count on G55 to vote with whatever the wolves come up with, so yes, a concerted baddie action to derail the QT vote is not out of the question. We'll all have to see what the Cuties come up with and decide whether we're willing to trust it.

This, and Lommy's post as well, rub me the wrong way. Smacks of trying to get us to mistrust the QT vote as not coming from a good place - while the dead innocents don't have any extra knowledge, I think there's slim-to-no chance they mess up, split 3/3, and give the evil deaders control (because that's literally the only scenario in which evil gets control.)

While sure, it's not impossible, I think there's a tiny enough chance of it occurring that I plan to fully trust the QT vote as coming from an innocent perspective, and casting pre-emptive doubt on it strikes me as shady.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Looking back on the last few minutes to see where my head's at gives me a pool of Lommy, Brinn, and Pitch. Based on prior QTs, it's entirely possible I'll wake up, see how everything has gone, and be shruggy about any wagon that isn't one of those three.

It feels like Zil is a bit of a meme at this point. Like, he hasn't really been on my radar, I recall agreeing with a couple of things he had to say, but I feel like literally everyone else suspects him (I recall seeing several versions of "And Zil, he's just been suspicious all game, I don't need to go into detail here") which is how I kinda feel the Huin and Lhuna QTs went, to a certain extent, so it wouldn't surprise me to see him be QT'd and a wolf, but ¯\_(ツ)_/¯.

I feel a bit at odds with the entire village in terms of who I suspect, to be quite frank. But I got G55 and Rikae correct, so I'm taking this game as a personal win regardless. :p

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Hm, I lied. I'd be decidely un-shruggy about a Greenie or Lottie wagon. Don't let me wake up to that.

[Eönwë]

Ok, just able to check in quickly, and thought it would be useful to have a list of all votes. Will hopefully have time to analyse when I wake up.

Good people are italicized and Evil people (or an Evil-dominated/equal-but-with-evil-tiebreaker QT) bolded.


Day 1
Lhuna -> Lhuna
Rikae -> Brinniel
G55 -> Rikae
Boro -> Pitchwife
Urwen -> G55
Pitchwife -> Brinniel (2)
Kath -> G55 (2)
Shasta -> Pitchwife (2)
Kitanna -> Pitchwife (3)
Inzil -> G55 (3)
Lottie -> G55 (4)
Greenie -> Macalaure
THE Ka -> Brinniel (3)
Eönwë -> Urwen
Rune -> Brinniel (4)
Lommy -> G55 (5)
Huines -> G55 (6)
Legate -> Brinn (5)
Macalaure -> Brinn (6)
Brinniel -> G55 (7)
---G55 Fake Ranger Reveal---
Sally -> Brinn (7)

Reminder: while G55 is evil, because she's the Cobbler she and the Infectors didn't know who each other were at this point.



Day 2
Lommy -> Macalaure
Kath -> Inzil
Lhuna -> Lommy
Macalaure -> Lommy 2
QT -> Brinniel
Greenie -> Macalaure 2
Legate -> Huinesoron
Huinesoron -> Macalaure 3
Rune -> Loslote
Kitanna -> Huinesoron 2
THE Ka -> Loslote 2
Pitchwife -> Huinesoron 3
Loslote -> Huinesoron 4
Sally -> Macalaure 4
Inzil -> Macalaure 5
Lalaith -> Huinesoron 5
Brinn -> Huinesoron 6
Boro -> Mac 6
Eönwë -> Huinesoron 7
Shasta -> Mac


Day 3
THE Ka -> Sally
QT -> Brinn
Eönwë -> Sally 2
Kath -> Inzil
Greenie -> Sally 3
Lommy -> Sally 4
--- Sally Hunter reveal---
Inzil -> Brinn 2
Lottie -> Sally 5
Lalaith -> Sally 6
Legate -> Sally 7
Shasta -> Sally 8
Brinn -> Sally 9
Rune -> Inzil 2
Boro -> Sally 10
Pitch -> Eonwe



Day 4
Lhuna -> Eönwë
Eönwë -> Boro
QT -> Lhuna
Inzil -> Lommy
Lottie -> Boro 2
Greenie -> Zil
The Ka -> Lhuna 2
Pitchwife -> Eönwë 2
Lalaith -> Lhuna 3
Lommy -> Lhuna 4
Rune -> Eönwë 3
Kath -> Lhuna 5
Shasta -> Lhuna 6
Boro -> Eönwë 4
Brinn -> Lhuna 7

[THE Ka]

Did Pitch ask me for an explanation of a post of his I thought was creepy and them never respond, or am I misremembering that?

Do you mean this post (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=724659&postcount=1020)?

You pointed it out in post #1009:


Except for (as I took it at the time) Zil himself, which is why I didn't want to vote him. Ironically, considering what I posted yesterDay before the sally debacle, I'm beginning to think Zil may well be innocent after all. I'm still wondering about you.
But it's true, like Lal said and Mac yesterDay, those of us who didn't want sally lynched screwed it up bigtime.

This post gives me all the creepy vibes.



Pitch replies, 'Explain' in post #1015, and then you returned an answer in #1020.

Came across it while catching up on yesterDay's events.

[Eönwë]

If Lommy and/or Boro are wolves, then their longevity as a pack would be better served by having a couple of relatively submarine packmates. And while I'm still convinced they're both suspicious, this village has so far had the bad habit of lynching those who are in the middle of the controversy of the Day who more often than not turn out to be innocent, and I'm sick of imagining the wolves cackling to themselves as they watch. Also, giving both of them one more Day and Night's worth of scrutiny should yield something a little bit more concrete.

I would be very surprised if at last one of these isn't an Infector.

[A Little Green]

Well, the Seer is the prime target always. It's only when they really don't see compelling signs that they'll just go for one unlikely to be lynched.I might still buy this explanation if it had been Night 2 or something. At this stage, though, I really can't see how they could afford not to try for the Seer. Certainly if their prospective Seer is also someone who is generally considered innocent and therefore unlikely lynchee, all the better for them, but I doubt they'd pick anyone only because of that.

I can see her going with a planned sacrifice if she thought it would help her packmates. Particularly if it bought her mates a couple days of perceived innocence.

It's not impossible, but I find wolf-on-wolf less likely. It felt similar to Huey's lynch, sort of unexpected. She was my preferred choice, but I don't appear to be a trusted figure amongst the living. I don't think Lhuna was considered an option until the QT vote.

It tells me that dead innocents trusted someone here yesterday and Lhuna's lynch took the pack possibly by surprise. It wasn't nearly as hectic as Huey's lynch, but I don't see a pre-planned "sacrifice Lhuna" plot from anyone yesterday. This last bit especially I find worth noting. The Lhunawagon came about pretty quickly and only after the QT vote; though a few of us had said they found her somewhat suspicious, it looked like most people were pretty surprised by the QT picking her. So yes, I'd expect to see some wolf-on-wolf among the Lhuna voters, but not an orchestrated plot to sacrifice her.

[Inziladun]

Looking back on the last few minutes to see where my head's at gives me a pool of Lommy, Brinn, and Pitch. Based on prior QTs, it's entirely possible I'll wake up, see how everything has gone, and be shruggy about any wagon that isn't one of those three.

Brinn still worries me going back to Day 1. The fact that her vote put Huey in front is a point in her favor, but yesterDay's on Lhuna said nothing.
I suspected Pitch early on, and his following Lhuna's vote yesterDay does look a bit sketchy. That would be pretty bold if they were mates, though.
Lommy looks better for her Lhuna vote at a critical time, but I can't discount spontaneous wolf-on-wolf, with the knowledge that there would still be three of them left.

It feels like Zil is a bit of a meme at this point. Like, he hasn't really been on my radar, I recall agreeing with a couple of things he had to say, but I feel like literally everyone else suspects him (I recall seeing several versions of "And Zil, he's just been suspicious all game, I don't need to go into detail here")

I'd like to be a meme. Awesome. ;)

I would be very surprised if at last one of these isn't an Infector.

Lommy I've certainly suspected, but Boro has been an enigma the whole time. I seem to remember him acting like this before, but it's been to long to recall the circumstances.

[Boromir88]

So much I'd like to do today, but I'm running out of time. So...let's see if I'm better at prioritizing than mental lists.

Disclaimer: Not discounting the possibility of wolf-on-wolf, but there's still 3. The normal amount for a village. Don't get cocky, yet.

I'm pleasantly surprised that our lynches haven't caused a complete melt down. There was a hiccup with sally that really gave us nothing. Stay the course and focus on the non-Lhuna voters:

Eonwe >>> Boro

Point in favor was his vote for Huey to tie the knot. He's been consistently suspicious of me, but I'll have others take a look at his vote if they so desire. This came before the QT vote was known, so he might have changed if not having to vote early.

Inzil >>> Lommy

Remarks that was an interesting choice from the QT, but not his top choice. Votes Lommy to make it a 4 way tie with me, Eonwe, Lhuna and Lommy. Definitely a suspicious early vote. I wasn't opposed to putting more people into the pot yesterday, but in addition to the poor choice, quickly dismissive of the QT.

Lottie >>> Boro

I get this vote, but will have others take a look at it if they so desire. Not a major fan of her methods, but can't deny they work well for her and just because someone takes the road less travelled doesn't mean we don't eventually reach the same destination.

Greenie >>> Inzil

I believe this made the count: Boro - 2, Lhuna - 1, Lommy - 1, Inzil - 1, Eonwe - 1. Additional spreading of the pot, which was pinged by Pitch. But if a wolf, trying to save Lhuna I would think she would have begun to consolidate the vote. Could have put me further in the lead, for example.

After Greenie's vote it starts to consolidate between Eonwe and Lhuna.

Pitch >>> Eonwe

He notes my comment about not wanting to limit ourself to just 2 choices today makes him not want to vote for me. Votes Eonwe, despite not liking to do so because he was away. Seems to disregard the QT vote. Suspicious. This made a 3 way tie between me, Lhuna, and Eonwe

Rune >>> Eonwe

At this point Lhuna was at 4, Eonwe 3. However, Rune and Lommy (for Lhuna) voted at the same time. So when making his vote the count was Lhuna 3/ Eonwe 2. Suspicious, looks like an attempt to save Lhuna.

Kath and Shasta then voted for Lhuna to put it out of reach I believe.

I tacked on a vote for Eonwe, just because he was an unknown and my preferred choice had already had her fate sealed.

So, for the QT my proposted vote...

+-Rune

[Thinlómien]

Hello? Eeriely quiet here! I mean, I guess it could be a welcome change in this game, but I'm a bit uneasy. We have the most data so far, we could coordinate something with the qt, but nothing is happening.

I'll make a list to sort my thoughts a little:


Leaning innocent

Lottie and Pitch - still think them innocent for previously stated reasons, and just when I started having second thoughts about them, Greenie's analysis goes and makes them look better. Eh, still not really suspecting them.

Greenie - I was wary of her for a long time, but she has come off as more genuine for the last couple of Days. Also I like her list and I think it would have been a crazy endeavour from a wolf. (It's already crazy from an innocent, but if you add to gathering the facts the effort of presenting them in a light that would hopefully benefit her fellows and make a few innocents look shady? Craazy. I say she deserves at least one Day's pass :D)

Rune - as I said, Legate's death and Lhuna's denial of my conclusions about it make him look very innocent.


Leaning wherever they want apparently

Brinn and Boro - this game has weirdly warped around both, especially Brinn, still neither of them has gotten even close to getting lynched despite having been under fairly heavy suspicion. I am hesitant to suspect them because they are too "obvious" choices and I feel a bit like both have been "used" by other players in this game, but I don't really have anything to back that up. Both of them also voted late enough yesterDay not to make a difference, and have made several other potentially wolfy votes in the past (for example on Day2).

Kath - nothing makes me suspect her in particular, but I think she usually plays a little more in her own bubble when a wolf, and she's been increasingly doing that. Her Lhuna vote yesterDay came when she was already on the lead, which makes it relatively meaningless. Certainly someone that deserves far more scrutiny than she's getting.

Shasta - hm. I kinda like how he thinks outside the box, but I certainly don't like how he leaves voting for the last minute every time and fails to leave any kind of trail that way. Also, he seems to be flying under the whole village's radar. Why hasn't basically anyone suspected him so far?


Leaning guilty

Zil - to be quite honest, I'm not as sure as I used to be. I kinda relate to him and his misguided zeal, and in any case I can hardly judge that. :p Still, there's still a wealth of incriminating facts against him, and Greenie not finding anything to dispute the possibility of him being fellows with Huine and Lhuna certainly doesn't help. So: despite the almost staggering evidence, I'm not convinced Zil is a wolf, but I wouldn't forgive myself if I let Zilwolf waltz into victory after how much I have been on his trail.

Eönwë - he's just not sitting right with me in this game at all. Granted, I could be a little blinded by his persistent suspicion for me which makes very little innocent sense from my pov, but he just sounds fake to me most of the time and he keeps concentrating on things I personally find trivial. Also I see Greenie didn't find anything decisive about him, and I still find the implications of Lalaith's death about him a little concerning. Yes, it's possile the wolves really only caught onto Lalaith's words about Kitanna and Legate, and Eönwë just happens to be an unfortunate innocent she heavily suspected (but then: why not "dream" of Legate instead of him on N4?). But I would say it's about as likely that a wolf pack including Wolfwë thought there was seerish intent in how Lalaith tried to recruit others behind her Eönwë case.

THE Ka - I've said for a few Days now that how she seems harmless by operating in her own "bubble", posting content but steering clear from controversial topics, is very alarming to me and reminds me of her past wolfy self. Plus, her Lhuna vote from yesterDay has a bit of the vibe of a wolf voting in a way that would make her look good (following the qt, staying clear of the "likely" lynch candidates who have been under fire that Day ie me, Zil and Boro - especially if we happened to all be innocent) and simply not expecting a bandwagon to form in her footsteps.


Parting commentary:

About Greenie's analysis which I'm using to help myself: yes, she could be a wolf twisting the facts to her own liking, but I doubt she's lying about anything (that would be somewhat unsporting and unwise). So it's her conclusions one should be wary of. Usually this kind of analyses get a lot of stuff right but there usually is at least one member of the wolf pack who turns out to be one of the "no way would this be fellow wolves with known wolf x". So I'm using Greenie's conclusions and taking them with a pinch of salt. Also good to remember she didn't understandably analyse herself, and who knows what we'd find there. (If memory serves, she and Huine scarcely mentioned each other, and she and Lhuna didn't greatly suspect each other at least. Potentially quite wolfy, I daresay.)

About my analyses of the last two kills: It's entirely possible I'm reading the wolf kills' posts more thoroughly than the wolves themselves have. After all, in a village of this size, if they're debating between several kill choices, would they have the time to go through all their posts from Day1 onwards? Maybe, but also maybe not. Not a reason to discredit my findings, but a thing to keep in mind.


edit: xed with Zil and Boro - yay, signs of life!

[Boromir88]

It'll be some time before I can make it back but I intend to take more detailed look at THE Ka, Kath, and Greenie today.

[Thinlómien]

The QT can whack my head for saying "we should coordinate something with the qt" repeatedly, yet taking no initiative on that. In my defense, I really do hate theoretical speculation and prefer to use my time and energy analysing Night kills and/or votes. Or plain poking at people. :p

But okay, I think the least we can do is to give the qt pointers about how we might want to lynch toDay, like Boro just did. Since it looks pretty quiet here, I have spent some time on the Night kill and making a list (including a quick look at yesterDay's votes while making that), I might retreat for a little while. On Monday I spent most of my waking hours playing werewolf (did I mention I'm temporarily unemployed until June 2nd? :rolleyes:), and to be honest, I don't have the stamina to repeat that today. So, I'll be off for a few hours at least, and I'll make a mock vote if it helps the qt:

+-Eönwë

but I could as well go for +-THE Ka or +-Inziladun.

[A Little Green]

Lommy makes a good point about giving the QT some warning about what we're up to. Right now I'm still most inclined to go

+- Inzil,

with THE Ka a strong runner-up. I wouldn't actively mind Eonwe, Shasta, Brinn or Kath either.


--


RL sidenote: further joys of lockdown life - my back is worse than it has been for years, so my capacity to sit in front of a computer is somewhat compromised today. I'll do my best to pop in, but don't expect lengthy posts :(

[Pitchwife]

Did Pitch ask me for an explanation of a post of his I thought was creepy and them never respond, or am I misremembering that?
No you're right, I haven't yet responded to this:

"Man, we really messed up, voting the Hunter like that. Aw, shucks."

Sounds rather "agreeable", no?
because frankly, how am I even supposed to argue with that? Of course it sounds agreeable the way you put it, but I don't feel it's a fair representation of my post. I didn't vote the Hunter, but I didn't act in time to save her either, and if you think admitting a mistake and feeling bad about it is creepy I can't help you.

[Inziladun]

I can sort of see the case against Steve, but then again he did give the go-ahead vote to Huey.

If voting right now, it would probably be

+-Brinn

I still haven't shaken the bad vibe, the fact that Rikae gave her a vote and was taken out that Night, and the fact that many known innocents have voted for her, whereas no known wolves have (excepting the not-to-be-trusted QT vote when they had an evil majority).
And she did give Huey a key vote, but still...

x/d with Pitch

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

In her Lalaitholysis Lommy say the following regarding Lalaith's view on Eönwë::


“If I recall correctly, she persisted in this suspicion of Eönwë. This is certainly not a point in his favour."

If I remember correctly Eönwë was also semi-permanently on Legate’s radar. The question is if it indicates that Eönwë might be infected, or if it is too obvious for the infected to go systematically for the ones that suspect them. I am leaning towards the former at the moment, because of the size of the pack any nightly kill is likely to incriminate them on some level.


Lommy about Lalaith's comment regarding QT voting for Lhuna who had voted for her main suspect Eönwë:
Hmm. Not sure what to make of this, possibly makes her look less convinced about Eönwë? Or less trusting of QT?

Seems quite plain to me. It is an innocent who starts to second guess her own reasoning because of external factors.

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

I had a new look at everyone overNight based on their interactions with our two known wolves. (I actually made a colour-coded spreadsheet. No, I don’t have a life.) Based on this, I still haven’t seen anything to make me think better of Inzil, but I’m now also having serious misgivings about THE Ka and Kath, and reconsidering how much to trust Shasta. It’s past bedtime for me, but here’s the whole thing -
.

Can i just say that I love this post. So informative, yet concise in its way of dealing with the events gone before.

Greenie is one of the people I have had such a hard time reading. Until this post hadn’t gotten bad vibes from her, and perhaps a few posts where she came off reasonable if nothing else.

This post alone makes me feel very good about Greenie. It is not just that I like the style in which it is craftet and that it is very informative. Most importantly it does not feel contrived, and at no point do i get the feeling that she tries to stretch her conclusions further than what the evidence can support them. Possibly you could say that she goes to the limit with her suggestion that Ka might have calculated with Lhuna being a target, but I think she stays within what is reasonable.

If someone can point out glaring omissions in Greenie's version of events, or places where she bends the facts or interprets too freely, then I will of course reconsider. Right now, this just feel to genuine to be the work of a wolf.

EDIT: I only quotet the start of her post as it was too long to include.

[Kath]

So! 2 wolves down! And the QT made an excellent showing of themselves, too. YesterDay, quite a few people put down their planned vote options long before the QT vote had to be made. Is that something we want to do again toDay on the assumption that it did help?

Just looking at Lhuna's posts form yesterDay again in light of the lynch ... and in not such a rush as yesterDay!

Post 862 - she had made a list:
Likely innocent:
Lottie - Hui vote, trying to stop sally taking her as a Hunter pick
Pitch - Hui vote, believing sally so voting Eonwe to save her

Bad:
Eonwe - voting record
Lommy - attitude towards sally
Shasta - Mac vote, flipflopping on sally
Boro - holding his vote, flipflopping on sally

Should look more closely:
Brinn - votes come at end of successful bandwagons
Rune - voting Inzil out of the blue
Greenie - voted for two known innocents

She stated that she was looking at people who she noted from the voting patterns, and didn't mention the following: Kath, Inzil, Lalaith, THE Ka

I think from this post, one thing that stands out to me is that her reasoning behind finding Shasta 'Bad' and Boro 'Bad' is pretty similar. I'm wondering if one of them is a wolf, and she's matching an innocent to them with the same reasoning to confuse the issue. Given the Day 1 vote for herself and then the picking at Kit which got a lot of attention, Lhuna doesn't seem to have played as a wolf afraid of a bit of controversy. Naming a fellow wolf in her 'Bad' list doesn't seem out of character.

My voting may have been crap, but Lhuna's yours is completely clean since Day 1. Alarm is raised.
Early suspicion toward Lhuna here.

Inzil then responds to Lhuna's post, wondering why he didn't make the list. Follows on from Lhuna saying he is also not happy about Shasta and Boro.

Lhuna voted once as a throwaway because she wouldn't be there for the Deadline, once very early for Lommy, and once missed the deadline. She can't be here at the deadline, so she has never posted when it's gotten messy. She can't control that, it isn't suspicious or innocent, it just is.
Defending Lhuna against Boro's comments on her voting record.

Interesting. I wonder...but that will have to wait.

My comments to sally were tongue-in-cheek. After she pulled that reveal and left us hanging, until right before the DL I seriously doubted she was the hunter. I was wrong.
Replies to Lhuna's suspicion of him. What was the 'I wonder' bit about, Boro?

Lhuna: Wasn't really around yesterDay. Still find her suspicious for reasons stated yesterDay.
As part of a list post. The reasons were:

Okay, I had some concerns about Lhuna's posts from yesterDay, and after really reviewing them, I do find her suspicious. For her involvement in the ranger discussion, the way she encouraged suspicion against me in a subtle way, her vote yesterDay, and her bringing up Hui's slip.
This is all pretty solid from Brinn. It largely matches what I'd felt, minus the bit about herself.

I'm still feeling mostly good about Pitch, Shasta, Lhuna, Lottie, and Brinn, but a few of them have said things that made me raise my eyebrows (and there is the possible Pitch-Hui link mentioned in my previous post) and I think it might be time for me to make sure I'm not giving people free passes based on earlier innocent-looking actions.
This is very non-committal for quite a large chunk of the village and Lhuna is bang in the middle of it.

Hm. I agree with 1, and with that Lhuna deserves a closer look and Inzil is a very possible wolf, but the rest of this I either disagree with or find fishy or both. Regarding the QT – yes, we can trust that the QT vote is benign; but no, we can’t trust that it’s any more likely to be correct than that of any other innocent, non-Seer person. Following the QT’s lead would give a very easy alibi for a wolf to vote for an innocent without raising too many eyebrows, so no, even with an innocent-majority QT I don’t really trust anyone who places too much weight on what the QT decide.
In response to Boro's comments. Boro had suggested a pack of Lhuna, Lottie, Inzil + one more. Greenie seems to discount Lottie from this list and I agree based on the reasons I gave previously. Boro and Greenie - what linked Lhuna and Inzil for you, given you seemed to agree on that point?

For the QT. I would vote +-Lhuna

Ok, it stinks when your time zone doesn't allow you to be around when all the insanity unfolds. Still she made 2 safe votes. Not safe because of the TIME, but safe because of the people she suspects.

She mentions Huey's slip, but doesn't follow up on it.

1st was a self-vote.

2nd was a flimsy vote for Lommy that she still hasn't explained.
Lhuna had been a topic of discussion throughout the Day but Boro seems to be leading the charge here. I don't think anyone else had Lhuna down as their absolute top suspect.

Lhuna – On the fence about her too. Her voting record doesn’t tell us much; admittedly yesterDay’s no vote was due to RL and understandable, but Day 1 she voted for herself which gives us literally nothing, and Day 2 she voted for Lommy for reasons that still aren’t entirely clear to me. There was also the bit where she pointed out Huinwolf’s slip when no one else did but then didn’t follow up on it, which I still think could be a possible indication of guilt (a wolf would be more likely to notice a wolf slip because she’d know that’s what it was).
Interesting that Boro and Greenie have pretty much the same reasoning here. Lhuna wasn't top suspect for Greenie, though, with Inzil, Brinn and Boro more suspicious to her.

Lhuna - she is playing very safe and avoiding connections to most players. I don't like it.
Lommy has Lhuna in the suspiciousish category with Inzil, Brinn and Eonwe.

Lhuna - She's been very quiet, which I can't exactly blame her for, but I haven't seen any proof that I can trust her, either.
Has in the 'feeling dubious' list, but has Inzil, Lommy and Boro in a higher category.

I would also put Shasta on my 'watch' list. For the reasons, (ironically enough) that Lommy states in her recent analysis.

I still feel I haven't got any kind of handle on Lhuna, Ka and, to some extent, Kath.
Which probably means they are all brilliant wolves.
On the assumption Lal was killed because the wolves thought she was the Seer (and I still can't see what else the wolves would be going for) this is an interesting post. She was right about Lhuna being a wolf, so it could be that she has actually also pegged another wolf or even wolves and so they killed her assuming she was the Seer so she couldn't dream of any more of them. Alternatively, the others mentioned are innocent, so had Lal turned out to be the Seer then the village may have gone after them assuming she had dreamed them and found them guilty too.

++EÖNWË

My suspicion of him based on his voting pattern stands.

If Lommy and/or Boro are wolves, then their longevity as a pack would be better served by having a couple of relatively submarine packmates. And while I'm still convinced they're both suspicious, this village has so far had the bad habit of lynching those who are in the middle of the controversy of the Day who more often than not turn out to be innocent, and I'm sick of imagining the wolves cackling to themselves as they watch. Also, giving both of them one more Day and Night's worth of scrutiny should yield something a little bit more concrete.

i'm also not convinced about how Lommy explained that killing Legate as a possible Seer places Rune in a good light. I don't think Legate would have been that vocal about dreaming of him if he were the Seer.
Lhuna putting Boro and Lommy as top suspects together I think makes it very unlikely they would both be wolves, if either is.

Eonwe then has Lhuna as 'unsure, neutral' in his list post, and had voted for one of his top suspects, Boro.

The two first votes are interesting. Lhuna goes for yet another not-so-popular pick, but given how she acknowledges this in her reasoning, I can't really disagree. I mean we must have at least a few wolves who are quiet and steering clear of controversy, unless the remaining pack is Brinn-Zil-Boro-Lottie, which I quite refuse to believe.
Lhuna's vote doesn't seem to be pinging suspicion here for Lommy.

The most Seerish thing Legate did that stood out to me was encouraging a vote for Hui and looking for support. I think it's more likely he would stick his neck out, as we see in hindsight, to point out a wolf than an innocent, like he would have done with Rune on Day 1 in your scenario.

I say this because I've been thinking Rune might be another submarine wolf. Given that I suspect you, this could be a way for you to use a Seer-candidate's words to keep others from taking a closer look at Rune. And it bothers me that at least a couple of people have agreed with you about him.
Lhuna brought Rune up a few times, particularly in response to Lommy's posts. If she'd been in real danger at this point, this might look more like pushing a particular name to keep it looking innocent the next Day. As this was before the QT and the votes, I think it speaks to Rune likely being innocent.

I'm going to have to ask the same Lhuna. Choosing him appears to be they were having a hunch on his role due to his relative safety and insights? If so, why not Pitch who was in tandem with him at points during the Huin vote. Or do you think he was chosen out of pressure and because of starting the Huin vote they thought he had some additional role insight?
This was about why the wolves chose Legate. Lhuna's assertions that Legate did not look Seerish suggests that this was indeed why he was killed.

Greenie mentions she wouldn't be opposed to lynching Lhuna - has Inzil as her top and Boro and Brinn on the list too.

Then the QT votes Lhuna.

So presumably at least 2 dead innocents including Legate, or 3 innocents not including Legate, think Lhuna is fishy?

Gotcha, dead folks. A bit unsure how much we should let their choices affect ours though. They don't (barring some catastrophe in the qt thread) have evil intent, but they still don't know anything more than we do.
This initial reaction suggests Lommy wasn't eager to follow the vote choice here.

Inzil states Lhuna is not his first choice and votes Lommy. Looking back, it doesn't seem that Inzil has mentioned or interacted with Lhuna since the posting around the Kit discussion, so voting for her here would have really stuck out.

Lhuna - darned if I know; she's a slippery fish in the sense that I can't quite get a cognitive grip on her
Pre-voted Eonwe and didn't seem to have any major suspicion of Lhuna here.

Greenie thinks Hui may have slipped and therefore the QT actually know something about Lhuna. Tempted to go for her, and she did mention she'd be happy to lynch Lhuna earlier.

Lommy would prefer Inzil but was happy to go with Lhuna. Having said a little earlier that she wasn't sure about following the QT vote, I'm interested in what changed her mind.

Lottie voted Boro and didn't mention Lhuna at all. What did you think of the QT vote, Lottie?

I'll most probably be following the QT's vote. Seems to me like they've got a good head on their shoulders now.
Boro seemed very happy with the situation.

Rune listed Inzil, Eonwe and Brinn. Said he'd take a look at Lhuna.

Greenie votes Inzil for being the most suspicious and mentioned suspicion of Lhuna and Boro. Having previously said you'd be tempted to follow the QT, Greenie, why the decision to stick to Inzil in the end?

Lal's push for the village listening to the QT I think again would have made the wolves suspect she might be the Seer. There goes the QT literally naming a wolf an no one seems to listen, so she brings it to the forefront.

Lommy said that without an analysis of Lhuna she only had flimsy reasons to vote and wasn't happy with that.

I think it is interesting that Lhuna , a relatively non-vocal player (at least not great quantities of posts), choses to introduce her theory that there we are dealing with submarine-wolves in a relatively subdued manner. Also she only does so after she has cast a vote fore Eonwe.
I didn't really see Lhuna as non-vocal because of her involvement with the Kit discussion, but I can see the not great quantities of posts point.

Brinn says she could vote for Lhuna but would rather vote Inzil.

Shasta says he'd probably vote Lommy.

THE Ka looked into Lhuna and Lommy debating whether the wolves killed Legate because they thought he was the Seer, and picking out Rune as an innocent/suspect. She concludes Lhuna comes out of that the more suspicious and votes for her. This is the first vote for Lhuna since the QT vote.

Lhuna -> Eönwë
Eönwë -> Boro
QT -> Lhuna
Inzil -> Lommy
Lottie -> Boro 2
Greenie -> Zil
THE Ka -> Lhuna 2

This ties Lhuna with Boro.

I'm pretty okay with this tally. The QT vote for Lhuna is interesting - unsure if I want to follow up on it today, but I don't think she and I are ever going to agree about how long I held my vote the day we QT'd Huin, and I can't decide if I think it's wolvish or not.

I currently think there's a Lommy/Boro connection - specifically I think there's a case for them being wolves together. It's at gut-and-pings level right now; if I were to research anything it would probably be that.

Zil and Eonwe both have minor dings against them but also both have places where I agreed with what they had to say, so...
Then in the immediate next post he agrees with Greenie's vote for Inzil and says it's followed his exact train of thought, so I'm surprised he doesn't have Inzil as a clearer suspect in his own post. And then a post later, looks at Eonwe's list and likes/dislikes parts of it, but again doesn't mention Inzil despite what he just said about Greenie's post.

Pitch votes Eonwe.
Lal votes Lhuna.
Lommy votes Lhuna.

Rune votes Eonwe. This puts Eonwe at 3 while Lhuna is at 4.

I vote Lhuna.
Shasta votes Lhuna.
Boro votes Eonwe.
Brinn votes Lhuna.

So it was Shasta's vote that decided it. Had he voted Eonwe instead, and then Boro still voted Eonwe, Brinn would have had the deciding vote.

I'm sorry, this was supposed to be a look at just Lhuna's posts, but turned into more of a train of thought through the Day. It also took a while! The last post I saw before starting was 1090.

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

If I were to vote right now I would probably go for Inzil

+-Inziladun

I know I am sounding like a broken record, but my secondary choices would be Brinn and Eönwë.

The people I suspect the least at the moment is Pitch, Greenie and Shasta. My good feeling of Shasta I must admit are not based on anything particular save not getting bad vibes and not seeing anything obviously incriminating.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Not quoting, I'm on my phone, but Boro's analysis of Inzil's vote yesterday is probably the first thing I can cognitively latch onto and go "hmm, that's a good point, maybe he is suspicious."

[Pitchwife]

So I'm using Greenie's conclusions and taking them with a pinch of salt. Also good to remember she didn't understandably analyse herself, and who knows what we'd find there. (If memory serves, she and Huine scarcely mentioned each other, and she and Lhuna didn't greatly suspect each other at least. Potentially quite wolfy, I daresay.)
I can supplement a bit about Greenie and Hui from my notes:

Hui #80 : thanks Greenie (and Lommy!) for explaining the merits/lack thereof of looking for the cobbler; 'may reconsider if either of you are wolves'.
Greenie #124 : sums up Hui's and Kath's points about the LPG triangle (among other things), thinks my explanation for focussing on Legate was 'legit enough', doesn't address Hui directly.
Greenie #135 : explains that Hui was defending rather than suspecting Mac earlier
Greenie #164 (D1 list) : Huinesoron – Doesn’t follow the herd and brings up points others haven’t. Suspected Lommy, defended Mac. I get a good vibe so far, though worth keeping an eye on. Hui #289 : Greenie's comments on the Rikae/G55 altercation 'not very wolvish'.
Greenie #346 : Hui voting to save Brinn too open for a wolf defending a packmate
Hui #354 : Greenie looks like saying we should ignore the Night kill as implicating Brinn: 'This is the sort of reasoning I'd expect to see in a legitimate Brinn analysis'; Greenie does good work on actual reasons why Brinn might be suspicious
Hui #417 : defends Greenie against Mac: 'The fact remains that his case against Greenie relies heavily on 'this is exactly how I’d expect a Green wolf to act'.'

Based on these interactions alone, I wouldn't rule them out as packmates, although most of it could just be Huiwolf buddying up to innocent Greenie looking for an ally. If Brinn is another wolf, #346 could be an attempt at damage control. On D2 Greenie voted before the Huiwagon got rolling, so nothing to conclude from that.

Past experience has taught me to be para-, er, apprehensive of a possible Greenwolf who could sail through endgame to victory while smelling clean as a lily, so I'm wondering whether I'm seeing points against her through a magnifying lens just to be on the safe side. I agree with Rune that her diligent and balanced analysis in #1057 is unlikely to be the work of a wolf (and like Lommy said, why would she put so much effort into something that doesn't benefit the pack?).

Full disclosure: Eönwë, Shasta and Greenie hinge on each other in my mind to some degree. As far as I can tell, Shasta's suspicion of me goes back to a D1 comment where I called Eönwë's list agreeable (for which I now got the bill:rolleyes:) while failing to say the same about Greenie - which in turn has made me more wary of letting Greenie slip through.

[Thinlómien]

Lommy would prefer Inzil but was happy to go with Lhuna. Having said a little earlier that she wasn't sure about following the QT vote, I'm interested in what changed her mind.Well, I wasn't and am still not a fan of automatically following the QT vote. Yes, they are most likely benevolent at this point and might have information we don't. That means we should seriously consider what they tell us. But should we let them make all the decisions? I don't think so.

So for the whole Lhuna thing, I suspected her but it was more like a few random points and a generic vibe thing, rather than having multiple good reasons to suspect her (like with my top suspect Inzil). So I was not at any point really opposed to lynching her, but there was an undercurrent of hesitation about making decisions on flimsy grounds. I did become a bit more certain about her when I had the time to quickly look at your, Boro's and Brinn's analyses about her.

The whole whether to follow the QT's choice was really a whole another kettle of fish. If the QT had voted for someone I did not suspect very much, I wouldn't have followed their vote. But since they voted for someone I did suspect, it was one factor that made me pick her over my other suspects (some of whom I suspected more). I'm considering acting with the same logic toDay, by the way. It seems prudent to me to let their choice affect but not dictate your own voting.

Full disclosure: Eönwë, Shasta and Greenie hinge on each other in my mind to some degree. As far as I can tell, Shasta's suspicion of me goes back to a D1 comment where I called Eönwë's list agreeable (for which I now got the bill) while failing to say the same about Greenie - which in turn has made me more wary of letting Greenie slip through. Agreed. I'm not sure about Eönwë-Shasta but I keep seeing Greenie-Eönwë and Greenie-Shasta as things. But it's hard for me to evaluate it because I know both Shasta and Eönwë are among Greenie's best 'downs buddies so that might make them likely to lowkey team up regardless of their alignments, especially if they were innocents genuinely thinking the other one innocent too. But then again, put a bunch of buddies in the same wolf pack, and they'd likely work this way too. Therefore, I've been hesitant to read too much into it, but if Eönwë or Shasta turns out to be a wolf, I think it would prudent to have a closer look at Greenie (and vice versa).

[Thinlómien]

Btw random point aboout Shasta that I keep thinking about everytime I see his signature: I'm not sure what to make of the fact neither his votes nor the wolf kills have had in any way psychic vibes so far. Did the ww break kill his famous powers? :p

[Kath]

I'm thinking back to my suspicions the last few Days. Inzil and Lhuna have been top, and pretty much for the same reasons around their behaviour with Kit and the ensuring Ranger debacle.

Then Eonwe as well as he got involved with it all, but then quickly backed off it and berated people the following Day for bringing it up, even though he had been involved.

Votes:
Inzil voted G55 Day 1, Mac Day 2 (putting Mac ahead of Hui in the tally), Brinn Day 3 (post-reveal), Lommy Day 4 (post QT vote)
Pushed Mac into the lead over Hui, but then didn't vote him the following Day.

Eonwe voted Urwen Day 1, Hui Day 2 (if he hadn't voted, and Shasta had, it would have been Mac lynched), sally Day 3 (pre-reveal), Boro Day 4 (pre QT vote)
After being quite the key player in the Hui lynch, Eonwe has then voted very early in the proceedings since. If a wolf, might be a safe move after throwing a packmate under the wagon.

While looking at Eonwe's very helpful vote summary for that, it keeps being said that Shasta is holding his vote frequently. Brinn and Boro are in the same boat with that. And Brinn's votes were key for the G55 lynch (self preservation but it was the deciding vote) and the Hui lynch (put Hui ahead of Mac) but then more following the crowd for sally and Lhuna.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Btw random point aboout Shasta that I keep thinking about everytime I see his signature: I'm not sure what to make of the fact neither his votes nor the wolf kills have had in any way psychic vibes so far. Did the ww break kill his famous powers? :p

Hey, I called out G55 and Rikae correctly D1! And there was only one Cobbler to find! :p

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Greenie I see, but connecting Eonwe to me feels like a bit of a stretch. He's hovering around the same place Inzil is, where I haven't dug in there, and I've agreed with one or two of the things he's said, but a bunch of other people suspect him so it wouldn't shock me if he ended up being a wolf. With the added caveat that he hammered Huin over Mac.

[Inziladun]

Based on these interactions alone, I wouldn't rule them out as packmates, although most of it could just be Huiwolf buddying up to innocent Greenie looking for an ally. If Brinn is another wolf, #346 could be an attempt at damage control. On D2 Greenie voted before the Huiwagon got rolling, so nothing to conclude from that.

I would really like to know about Brinn.

Well, I wasn't and am still not a fan of automatically following the QT vote. Yes, they are most likely benevolent at this point and might have information we don't. That means we should seriously consider what they tell us. But should we let them make all the decisions? I don't think so.

Who there could "have information we don't" besides the wolves?

I'm considering acting with the same logic toDay, by the way. It seems prudent to me to let their choice affect but not dictate your own voting.

Well, yes. With a preponderance of innocence there, we can at least be sure what they send will be at least intentionally good, which is certainly desirable..

[THE Ka]

(Apologise in advance for the long post, have been trying to catch up since 7:30 my time)


because frankly, how am I even supposed to argue with that? Of course it sounds agreeable the way you put it, but I don't feel it's a fair representation of my post. I didn't vote the Hunter, but I didn't act in time to save her either, and if you think admitting a mistake and feeling bad about it is creepy I can't help you.



This whole exchange has me curious now, including in mind Shasta’s post #1040 about ‘holding votes is pivotal’. At the end of the exchange, Pitch’s reply sounds genuine, because it is:


sally - it really felt like a rehashed plot from the Day before, with some of the same arguments that had been used against Mac being used against sally, and since I was feeling miuch better about Mac by then, I was wary of the same happening to sally. Plus, as I said yesterDay, the sallywagon was being pushed (and pushed very hard) by a mixture of people I didn't and don't particularly trust. I had noticed sally hint at her role earlier, so when she revealed I was willing to give her the benefit of doubt.

Eönwë - I've been suspecting him since D1, based on a mix of mostly very uncontroversial posting, throwaway vote for Urwen, IMO possibly wolf-on-wolf vote for Hui and eagerness to jump on the sallywagon. I regret not doing this earlier when it could have mattered.

So, my curiosity is, why does Shasta still have misgivings about this and is asking the same question again about the timing of his vote?

Either an attempt to try and see if Pitch will give a different answer and thus, more evidence why, or to try and bring it back into the spot light to push?
If it’s a build suspicion attempt, we’ve seen several over the last few Days and players are wary of them, so this could be concluded as a risky move. Otherwise, they either didn’t spot where Pitch had replied to this same question or had forgotten. Suspicious still, but that could just as much be a villager’s mistake by oversight.


As for the ‘when to vote’ concern comparatively Pitch in #933 agrees with Lommy over Zil on voting earlier to help the QT (which was innocent majority at that point) and help GT innocents:

I'm getting more and more convinced it is not in the innocents' interests for everyone to leave their votes to the last minute. (Why do you think I've voted earlier than I had to 2 days in a row?) Dudes, let's learn from our mistakes and spread out the votes a little toDay, so we have time to discuss and react to each other's votes. Please.
Or, so you and your mates have a little breathing room?

Later, we have Shasta commenting about their near DL voting and its merits along with some defense in post #1040:
Although I've said it once and I'll say it again - by holding my vote the day Huin was QTed, I very nearly made the most pivotal vote of the day. So if you think I'm doing it to avoid responsibility... you should rethink.


Pitch, as they’ve admitted before, regret not voting earlier with the Eonwe vote and later in post #933 agrees with not leaving the votes last minute to help GT analysis. This follows consistent and in post #971, gives an early vote as others had discussed to help out of +-Eonwe. Later in #1030, Pitch votes Eonwe (making a second vote to Eonwe at that point), noting that he had some hesitation given Lhuna’s earlier vote for them as well, but does so consistent to what he had said earlier over others agreeing to spread the votes and not wait for right before DL.

Regardless of vote and how the QT vote went, out of the Eonwe voters this paints Pitch in a much more genuine and consistent light. There is little to no flip flopping near the middle or end of a bandwagon that might be considered suspicious of wolf trying to appear invested and hide at the same time, nor is there a habit of throwing a bunch of suspicion posts out at players and seeing what sticks and going for it. All in all between the two, this speaks more to Pitch’s innocence.

As for Shasta, it’s interesting to watch their pattern before voting when it comes to reactions to both Eonwe’s lists and then later, Rune’s suspicion of Eonwe.

In post #1005, Shasta quotes Eonwe’s list, but gives a non-commited judgement saying there are parts they agree with in the ranking and others they’re confused about:
I'm so confused about how I feel about this list. Parts of it I love (Boro, Lommy, Greenie, Kath, Lottie to a lesser extent) and parts of it I hate (Pitch, Rune, Ka and Lalaith to a lesser extent.)
What does it all mean?!

The last bit is curious. Is it a subtle signal to Eonwe or just open ended wondering?

Later on in post #1008, Rune replies to Shasta’s suspicions about his previous post, which he was called-out for an ‘odd turnaround’:
What is?
The Lommy comments?
Can't I find behaviour unhelpful and even suspicious without it automatically qualifying a person for being a quarantine candidate?
Or were you referring to something else?

Shasta replies in #1012:
It sounds, to me, like in the first post you're suspicious of her, then in the second, you absolutely don't want to vote her (which translates into not being suspicious of her, to me.) People change their minds, of course, but that seemed to take place in a very short timespan. It drew my eye because I suspect Lommy, so it was like, "Yeah, I agree with this - wait, what?"

This is the second player besides Pitch that Shasta directly starts questioning after they’ve either voiced a suspicion to or have voted for Eonwe. Arguably in the context, this is one of the more consistent elements Shasta has.

Rune later in post #1028 votes Eonwe, stating that they will not have time to return before DL. This at least, still appears to be meeting the earlier sentiment of others on avoiding last minute votes before DL and spreading for analysis. A vote for Eonwe is also consistent to Rune’s suspicions on them in previous game Days.

Shasta then in post #1031 notes that Lhuna, Pitch, and Rune have made a ‘counter wagon’ to the Lhuna one and voices mistrust. Shasta later goes on to vote Lhuna, making it the 6th vote for them and stating that another wagon they prefer is likely not going to come along.

This is fairly consistent of Shasta voting later on but runs counter to other players that Day wanting to aim for more beneficial earlier votes in order to spread them and avoid hiding places for wolves.

Looking back at these exchanges, I can’t for these arguments find Rune or Pitch that suspicious for their votes. Yes, they didn’t choose Lhuna, but then again, in context of their previous suspicions, Lhuna was not either high up on their list of candidates or there. Honestly it appears they were trying to remain consistent with what evidence they had and trusted and go with that, than trying to throw suspicion around and see what stuck to make something to stand on for their arguments.
I really don’t see wolves being this dedicated to sticking to an argument when there are other ones that are much more convenient to hide in or push. Out of the three, I’m growing more and more suspicious of Shasta and how their interest will defensively spike around others looking at Eonwe.

x'ed with Rune, Zil, Pitch, Kath, Lommy, etc...

[Loslote]

I caught up just in time to have to hop on Zoom meetings until just before the QT deadline. :eek: I might be able to pop in here and there, but in case I end up super busy and can't post:

@Cuties:
+- Ka
+- Zil

[Kath]

Ooh, forgot I hadn't done this in my earlier post.

+-Inzil
or
+-Eonwe

And I'd like to take a closer look at Brinn and Shasta if time permits.

[THE Ka]

For the QT (because I forgot in my novel there before...):
+-Shasta

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Okay, hot take - Ka is evil. Potentially with Eonwe, based on her last stuff.

[Thinlómien]

Hey, I called out G55 and Rikae correctly D1! And there was only one Cobbler to find!I also called Gal cobblerish and thought Rikae looked innocentish and I think so did several others(?), so, it's not enough to ping my psychic radar :p

Who there could "have information we don't" besides the wolves?Everybody. They have Huinewolf to observe. Of course, we have no idea what he's doing there, I mean the extremes are posting nonsense all Day and Night (in which case the innocents there do not know much) and him having actually spilled the names of his packmates there either as a newbieish mistake or as the ultimate trolling move. The likely scenario, form what I've seen from Huine before he was lynched, is something in between. Also it's worth bearing in mind that the qt is full of innocents who are freer to think outside the box than living innocents because 1) their time/energy is not swallowed up by having to defend themselves from accusations and 2) they can't fall into the trap of kneejerk suspicion against people who suspect them unlike we do (nor can they conversely discard their valid suspicions just because they might be kneejerk). Of course, they might also be paying less attention to the game than us living ones because understandably they have less to do. But still. I do think they have certain advantages in wolf spotting if they're willing to use them.

I find it interesting that first Pitch says there's a Greenie-Eönwë-Shasta connection, then I agree about Greenie-Eönwë and Greenie-Shasta but not Shasta-Eönwë, then Shasta himself chimes in and says him-Greenie maybe but not him-Eönwë, and lo what happens? Ka posts a long analysis heavily pointing at Shasta-Eönwë, which Shasta quickly retailiates to by suspecting Ka-Eönwë. Something is very furry in here...

[Inziladun]

They have Huinewolf to observe. Of course, we have no idea what he's doing there, I mean the extremes are posting nonsense all Day and Night (in which case the innocents there do not know much) and him having actually spilled the names of his packmates there either as a newbieish mistake or as the ultimate trolling move. The likely scenario, form what I've seen from Huine before he was lynched, is something in between. Also it's worth bearing in mind that the qt is full of innocents who are freer to think outside the box than living innocents because 1) their time/energy is not swallowed up by having to defend themselves from accusations and 2) they can't fall into the trap of kneejerk suspicion against people who suspect them unlike we do (nor can they conversely discard their valid suspicions just because they might be kneejerk). Of course, they might also be paying less attention to the game than us living ones because understandably they have less to do. But still. I do think they have certain advantages in wolf spotting if they're willing to use them.

YesterDay's result indicates they aren't just "posting nonsense" (at least not the innocents). I seriously doubt though that anything Huey, or now Lhuna, say can be taken at face value. The good side there is certainly very solid.

I find it interesting that first Pitch says there's a Greenie-Eönwë-Shasta connection, then I agree about Greenie-Eönwë and Greenie-Shasta but not Shasta-Eönwë, then Shasta himself chimes in and says him-Greenie maybe but not him-Eönwë, and lo what happens? Ka posts a long analysis heavily pointing at Shasta-Eönwë, which Shasta quickly retailiates to by suspecting Ka-Eönwë. Something is very furry in here...

Does that put Steve as the lynchpin?

[Shastanis Althreduin]

I find it interesting that first Pitch says there's a Greenie-Eönwë-Shasta connection, then I agree about Greenie-Eönwë and Greenie-Shasta but not Shasta-Eönwë, then Shasta himself chimes in and says him-Greenie maybe but not him-Eönwë, and lo what happens? Ka posts a long analysis heavily pointing at Shasta-Eönwë, which Shasta quickly retailiates to by suspecting Ka-Eönwë. Something is very furry in here...

Yeah, I'm home now and can elaborate. Gimme a sec.

[Eönwë]

I'm thinking back to my suspicions the last few Days. Inzil and Lhuna have been top, and pretty much for the same reasons around their behaviour with Kit and the ensuring Ranger debacle.

Then Eonwe as well as he got involved with it all, but then quickly backed off it and berated people the following Day for bringing it up, even though he had been involved.
I mentioned it twice. The first time I suggested that given Shasta's post about having the same feeling as Kit (that I later did and still do - for now - believe was made to diffuse the situation), as well as their synchronized voting the previous Day could be a way for wolves to be 'too obvious to be packmates'. If I were a wolf, what would have been the point of suspecting someone who I thought was the Ranger (who would have been the kill pick) and trying to link her to someone else? Presumably, even if I could make it look like I didn't believe her (thus de-linking me from the kill), the connection to Shasta would be pointless.

The second time I mentioned it, it had already been blown wide open, so I mostly thought it would be good to discuss how it made Shasta look.

Also, generally, I'm not sure actually sure if the Kit discussion is actually as suspicious people make it sound (I know there have been mixed opinions on this). Harmful to the village, yes, but suspicious? I'm not so sure. Other than Zil who first pointed it out (which may have been in attempt to lure how out more if he's evil), discussion of something that looks weird seems more likely to be something innocent would do, because wolves know that any kind of slip by a non-wolf is not a wolf-slip (and thus a gifted-slip), and have the Night to discuss it.



Eonwe voted Urwen Day 1, Hui Day 2 (if he hadn't voted, and Shasta had, it would have been Mac lynched), sally Day 3 (pre-reveal), Boro Day 4 (pre QT vote)
After being quite the key player in the Hui lynch, Eonwe has then voted very early in the proceedings since. If a wolf, might be a safe move after throwing a packmate under the wagon.

I find it interesting that before this, you've only ever mentioned my voting in that you've quoted Lhuna saying it was bad. And now you're going along with it?

[Loslote]

I find it interesting that first Pitch says there's a Greenie-Eönwë-Shasta connection, then I agree about Greenie-Eönwë and Greenie-Shasta but not Shasta-Eönwë, then Shasta himself chimes in and says him-Greenie maybe but not him-Eönwë, and lo what happens? Ka posts a long analysis heavily pointing at Shasta-Eönwë, which Shasta quickly retailiates to by suspecting Ka-Eönwë. Something is very furry in here...

I'm coming around to the idea of suspecting Eonwe, though I would still rather quarantine Ka. I could easily see Ka's latest post as an attempt to tie an innocent Shasta to her packmate Eonwe. I don't have a good sense for where Greenie fits in here. I am more inclined to trust her and Shasta at this point in time.

[THE Ka]

Okay, hot take - Ka is evil. Potentially with Eonwe, based on her last stuff.

Now I'm very curious in you.
Why are you trying to distance yourself from your previous actions of defending Eonwe to Rune and Pitch when they voiced suspicion, but not with my digging? If we're speaking of my 'last stuff'.

Does that put Steve as the lynchpin?

I believe so, at least with Shasta, but I do not know who else. As said before, I don't see either Rune or Pitch being connected as they've been fairly consistent in their suspicion of Eonwe and as almost a knee-jerk reaction, Shasta starts to show sudden interest yesterDay then backs off toDay when it starts to get uncomfortable by association.

[Pitchwife]

Okay, hot take - Ka is evil. Potentially with Eonwe, based on her last stuff.

I find it interesting that first Pitch says there's a Greenie-Eönwë-Shasta connection, then I agree about Greenie-Eönwë and Greenie-Shasta but not Shasta-Eönwë, then Shasta himself chimes in and says him-Greenie maybe but not him-Eönwë, and lo what happens? Ka posts a long analysis heavily pointing at Shasta-Eönwë, which Shasta quickly retailiates to by suspecting Ka-Eönwë. Something is very furry in here...
I'm obviously not going to contradict Ka's reading of me, and I've been thinking along similar lines, but this (I mean Ka's post) would also make sense from a packmate of Eönwë's who doesn't have high hopes for his longevity and wants to implicate Shasta if Steve is a wolf.

Everybody. They have Huinewolf to observe. Of course, we have no idea what he's doing there, I mean the extremes are posting nonsense all Day and Night (in which case the innocents there do not know much) and him having actually spilled the names of his packmates there either as a newbieish mistake or as the ultimate trolling move. The likely scenario, form what I've seen from Huine before he was lynched, is something in between. Also it's worth bearing in mind that the qt is full of innocents who are freer to think outside the box than living innocents because 1) their time/energy is not swallowed up by having to defend themselves from accusations and 2) they can't fall into the trap of kneejerk suspicion against people who suspect them unlike we do (nor can they conversely discard their valid suspicions just because they might be kneejerk). Of course, they might also be paying less attention to the game than us living ones because understandably they have less to do. But still. I do think they have certain advantages in wolf spotting if they're willing to use them.
All good points.

[Brinniel]

Again, my time is limited, but I've been reading posts in between my normal workday.

For what it's worth, if I were to vote now, I would vote +-Inzil. And to a lesser extent +-The Ka.

[Kath]

Also, generally, I'm not sure actually sure if the Kit discussion is actually as suspicious people make it sound (I know there have been mixed opinions on this). Harmful to the village, yes, but suspicious? I'm not so sure. Other than Zil who first pointed it out (which may have been in attempt to lure how out more if he's evil), discussion of something that looks weird seems more likely to be something innocent would do, because wolves know that any kind of slip by a non-wolf is not a wolf-slip (and thus a gifted-slip), and have the Night to discuss it.
Except that Lhuna, one of the key people involved in that discussion has just turned out to be a wolf. So if you're thinking Inzil could be a wolf trying to lure people out, and then there's Lhuna who was a wolf, then that discussion is absolutely a source of suspicion.

[Eönwë]

Conclusions: if the wolves killed Lalaith for looking like the seer (and why wouldn't they gun for the seer?), I think they assumed she dreamed of Kit on Night1 or 2 and Legate on Night 4. The other Night 1/2 dream would have been presumed to be innocent Greenie or innocent Zil, or perhaps Mac or even Sally. For Night3 the rather obvious conclusion is wolf!Eönwë. I mean no other theory seems half as plausible.

Wait, so your reason for suspecting me is that Lalaith suspected me for two Days and then after seeing the QT vote, re-evaluated and decided to follow the QT vote while I was tied with Lhuna for votes (and thus still a viable lynch-candidate)? That seems quite flimsy to me.

[Thinlómien]

YesterDay's result indicates they aren't just "posting nonsense" (at least not the innocents). I seriously doubt though that anything Huey, or now Lhuna, say can be taken at face value. The good side there is certainly very solid.I'll be very disappointed if the innocents there are just posting nonsense. :D

But Huine's position there is really interesting! Would he say basically anything, knowing everybody knows he's a wolf and it could be used against his pack? Would he bluff? Double bluff? How did he and Galadriel arrive to the conclusion of voting Brinn on Day3? Since they had to discuss openly on the thread, is it possible Huine let slip something that the innocents that joined the QT later can use (or have already used by voting Lhuna)? Is it possible the QT didn't just get lucky in their guess about Lhuna but they actually knew she was a wolf?

I would really REALLY like to know what's going on in the QT. But I should probably be careful what I wish for... ;)

And by the way, I still maintain that them dropping off the Brinn vote as soon as the innocent majority took over is a point in Brinn's favour. The innocents in the qt thread have read what lead to Huine and Gal picking Brinn for the second Day in a row, and they're in a much better position to judge Brinn's connection to Huine than we are.


edit: xed with #1114 and onwards

[Eönwë]

Except that Lhuna, one of the key people involved in that discussion has just turned out to be a wolf. So if you're thinking Inzil could be a wolf trying to lure people out, and then there's Lhuna who was a wolf, then that discussion is absolutely a source of suspicion.

That is fair. We have evidence that a known wolf did engage in this discussion. On the other hand, would they all want to associate themselves with each other and that discussion? But point taken.

[Inziladun]

And by the way, I still maintain that them dropping off the Brinn vote as soon as the innocent majority took over is a point in Brinn's favour. The innocents in the qt thread have read what lead to Huine and Gal picking Brinn for the second Day in a row, and they're in a much better position to judge Brinn's connection to Huine than we are.

I have to say that's a good point, at least the first part. The ones who came after the QT Brinn vote still don't know, though, the true intention behind it.

x/d with Steve

[Thinlómien]

Wait, so your reason for suspecting me is that Lalaith suspected me for two Days and then after seeing the QT vote, re-evaluated and decided to follow the QT vote while I was tied with Lhuna for votes (and thus still a viable lynch-candidate)? That seems quite flimsy to me.Fair point about you and Lhuna being tied, I didn't consider it from that angle. But I don't think she reconsidered her opinion about you, she just decided pursuing Lhuna was more important. (Which, I guess would have been fair enough from a seer who had dreamt of wolf!you if she was feeling confident she would survive until another Day to come out; that way both you and Lhuna could be caught.) She seemed highly trusting of the QT after all. But - I'm acknowledging I'm building quite a shaky construction here based on my interpretation of a clueless ordo's posts, trying to think like a wolf who thought she was the seer and with no actual knowledge of the wolves' identities to help me here. Still, I don't think Lalaith's suspicion of you is a thing we should entirely ignore, especially paired with (who said that?) the previous wolf kill Legate having suspected you too - while mostly you've flown relatively under the village's collective radar.

This all being said, ironically enough Eönwë's #1115 might be the first post of his in this game that I find both very sensible and genuine in tone.

~*~

The ones who came after the QT Brinn vote still don't know, though, the true intention behind it.I don't follow. I was under the impression that the ones who join the QT are allowed to read back what has been said there before? In that case they would all know as much. (And if they weren't allowed to read back, I doubt Rikae summarising earlier events to the others would be forbidden too?)

[Inziladun]

I was under the impression that the ones who join the QT are allowed to read back what has been said there before? In that case they would all know as much. (And if they weren't allowed to read back, I doubt Rikae summarising earlier events to the others would be forbidden too?)

What I meant was that Hueywolf would surely be aware what he says can be scrutinized by Innocents in the QT just as much as here. Nothing he said could be trusted. He wouldn't have to give G55 any reason to vote a certain way, besides "follow me".

[Pitchwife]

@Cuties:
+- Ka
+- Zil

+-Eönwë

but I could as well go for +-THE Ka or +-Inziladun.
Are we just picking the two most likely wolves as per Greenie's analysis now?
I get where the suspicion of Ka comes from, but I wouldn't want to vote her after she just defended me against Shasta, because it would feel mean. ToMorrow is another question, depending on what happens till then.


For the Cuties:


+- Eönwë (loose thread in the Gordian Knot)
+- Zil (not fully convinced but rather than anyone else at this point)

[Shastanis Althreduin]

So, my curiosity is, why does Shasta still have misgivings about this and is asking the same question again about the timing of his vote?

Either an attempt to try and see if Pitch will give a different answer and thus, more evidence why, or to try and bring it back into the spot light to push?
If it’s a build suspicion attempt, we’ve seen several over the last few Days and players are wary of them, so this could be concluded as a risky move. Otherwise, they either didn’t spot where Pitch had replied to this same question or had forgotten. Suspicious still, but that could just as much be a villager’s mistake by oversight.

Except that I wasn't asking Pitch a question at all - I was commenting on the "agreeableness" (heh) of a comment he made.

Here's the exchange in its entirety.

Except for (as I took it at the time) Zil himself, which is why I didn't want to vote him. Ironically, considering what I posted yesterDay before the sally debacle, I'm beginning to think Zil may well be innocent after all. I'm still wondering about you.
But it's true, like Lal said and Mac yesterDay, those of us who didn't want sally lynched screwed it up bigtime.

This post gives me all the creepy vibes.

Explain.

"Man, we really messed up, voting the Hunter like that. Aw, shucks."

Sounds rather "agreeable", no?

Did Pitch ask me for an explanation of a post of his I thought was creepy and them never respond, or am I misremembering that?

No you're right, I haven't yet responded to this:

because frankly, how am I even supposed to argue with that? Of course it sounds agreeable the way you put it, but I don't feel it's a fair representation of my post. I didn't vote the Hunter, but I didn't act in time to save her either, and if you think admitting a mistake and feeling bad about it is creepy I can't help you.

(Sidenote - Pitch, I think it's an entirely fair representation; those are literally your words and your context. And it's agreeable. And you're known for being an agreeable wolf - it's literally your tagline. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯)

So this bit from Ka is based off a faulty premise to begin with.

Moving on -

As for the ‘when to vote’ concern comparatively Pitch in #933 agrees with Lommy over Zil on voting earlier to help the QT (which was innocent majority at that point) and help GT innocents:

I'm getting more and more convinced it is not in the innocents' interests for everyone to leave their votes to the last minute. (Why do you think I've voted earlier than I had to 2 days in a row?) Dudes, let's learn from our mistakes and spread out the votes a little toDay, so we have time to discuss and react to each other's votes. Please.
Or, so you and your mates have a little breathing room?
Later, we have Shasta commenting about their near DL voting and its merits along with some defense in post #1040:
Although I've said it once and I'll say it again - by holding my vote the day Huin was QTed, I very nearly made the most pivotal vote of the day. So if you think I'm doing it to avoid responsibility... you should rethink.

Pitch, as they’ve admitted before, regret not voting earlier with the Eonwe vote and later in post #933 agrees with not leaving the votes last minute to help GT analysis. This follows consistent and in post #971, gives an early vote as others had discussed to help out of +-Eonwe. Later in #1030, Pitch votes Eonwe (making a second vote to Eonwe at that point), noting that he had some hesitation given Lhuna’s earlier vote for them as well, but does so consistent to what he had said earlier over others agreeing to spread the votes and not wait for right before DL.

Regardless of vote and how the QT vote went, out of the Eonwe voters this paints Pitch in a much more genuine and consistent light. There is little to no flip flopping near the middle or end of a bandwagon that might be considered suspicious of wolf trying to appear invested and hide at the same time, nor is there a habit of throwing a bunch of suspicion posts out at players and seeing what sticks and going for it. All in all between the two, this speaks more to Pitch’s innocence.

As for Shasta, it’s interesting to watch their pattern before voting when it comes to reactions to both Eonwe’s lists and then later, Rune’s suspicion of Eonwe.

In post #1005, Shasta quotes Eonwe’s list, but gives a non-commited judgement saying there are parts they agree with in the ranking and others they’re confused about:

I'm so confused about how I feel about this list. Parts of it I love (Boro, Lommy, Greenie, Kath, Lottie to a lesser extent) and parts of it I hate (Pitch, Rune, Ka and Lalaith to a lesser extent.)
What does it all mean?!

The last bit is curious. Is it a subtle signal to Eonwe or just open ended wondering?

I'm having trouble parsing exactly what point Ka is trying to make re: comparing Pitch and my voting-early-vs-voting-late stuff, but I don't actually think it matters all that much because again, none of that interaction on my end was aimed at Pitch; I was mostly responding to Lommy's annoyance:

Voting late enough again not to make a difference? Seeeeriously, Shasta.

As far as my post responding to Eonwe's list - that bit by Ka feels more like a reach than anything else. That post is literally me wondering out loud what it meant that my suspicions and Eonwe's list were both so similar and so radically different - did it make Eonwe more innocent in my eyes since we had those similarities, or more guilty because of those differences? (I tend to have a habit of reading people through their reactions to me and whether their suspicions jive with mine because I am egomaniacal.)

Re: Rune - here's the flip-flop in its entirety.

Almost done reading through todays action, and my initial thoughts are thus:

Lommy’s involvement in the Sally lynch, definitely makes me wary of her. To me, it was one of the most nonsensical things I have seen in a long time. I must note however that a known innocent (Legate), defended Lommy’s reasoning. So yeah, Lommy moves up my list of suspicions, but it would not be prudent to make that our only focal point.

I don’t care for Inzil's way of pushing the Lommy agenda, nor do I like the energetic way in which Lommy seems to pursue the tactic of “the best defence is an attack” today.

I get good vibes from Pitch and Lalaith so far today.

Also I like that you have gone with the early fake votes.

Underlining mine. Exactly ten minutes later:

If I was to vote right now I would probably go for Inzil, Eonwe or Brinn.
I am currently flipflopping on whom I suspect the most, and I would also like to look a little on Lhuna and Boro before I vote. People that I haven't been able to get a read on, but whom interesting points have been made.

+- Inzil
+- Eonwe
+- Brinn


Lastly I wouldn't want to vote Lommy today, yesterday was foolish and suspicious, but in it self not something that convinces me of her guilt.

This whole series has nothing to do with Eonwe - Rune barely mentions him as someone he might vote. To postulate that as a pattern of behavior, as Ka does here -

This is the second player besides Pitch that Shasta directly starts questioning after they’ve either voiced a suspicion to or have voted for Eonwe. Arguably in the context, this is one of the more consistent elements Shasta has.

- is not only inaccurate (was the first player supposed to be Pitch? Because again - I wasn't questioning him), it actually evidences the same underlying focus on Eonwe that Ka is accusing me of.

This is fairly consistent of Shasta voting later on but runs counter to other players that Day wanting to aim for more beneficial earlier votes in order to spread them and avoid hiding places for wolves.


And? Sorry to be so blunt about it, but is "running counter to other players" in and of itself a basis for wolvishness now? I don't believe that, and I don't actually believe Ka believes it either.

Out of the three, I’m growing more and more suspicious of Shasta and how their interest will defensively spike around others looking at Eonwe.

K. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

------------------

To sum this whole thing up - I feel strongly that this is opportunistic-Ka. Lommy mentioned earlier that I haven't been talked about or suspected much until today. That makes the timing of this suspicion from Ka fairly suspect, IMO. Added to that is how quite a chunk of it is based on a faulty premise and something I consider flimsy at best (holding my vote til late) - the whole thing makes me feel strongly that Ka doesn't actually believe this case of hers, and simply put it together to give the appearance of hunting wolves (and pointing at an opportune target that's been mentioned by several people today as "someone to look at.")

The most damning thing, though, IMO, is this -

For the QT (because I forgot in my novel there before...):
+-Shasta


- because the crux of her case and the point she spent the most time fleshing out is that I seem to be "defensively spiking around Eonwe"; which means in the case of Shastawolf you naturally have to have Eonwolf as well, because why else would Shastawolf be "defensively spiking"?

Yet there's no real mention of Eonwe at all in Ka's recent stuff, when Eonwe seems to have been picking up suspicion from the rest of the village. And her QT vote was for me. It really smacks of Ka distancing from Eonwe, in my opinion.



Now I know there have been posts since my last, so I'll go look at them.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

I'm coming around to the idea of suspecting Eonwe, though I would still rather quarantine Ka. I could easily see Ka's latest post as an attempt to tie an innocent Shasta to her packmate Eonwe. I don't have a good sense for where Greenie fits in here. I am more inclined to trust her and Shasta at this point in time.

Holy crap this x10000. Gooooo Lottie!

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Now I'm very curious in you.
Why are you trying to distance yourself from your previous actions of defending Eonwe to Rune and Pitch when they voiced suspicion, but not with my digging? If we're speaking of my 'last stuff'.



I believe so, at least with Shasta, but I do not know who else. As said before, I don't see either Rune or Pitch being connected as they've been fairly consistent in their suspicion of Eonwe and as almost a knee-jerk reaction, Shasta starts to show sudden interest yesterDay then backs off toDay when it starts to get uncomfortable by association.

I covered this in my big post just now - but I haven't "defended Eonwe."

[Shastanis Althreduin]

I'm obviously not going to contradict Ka's reading of me, and I've been thinking along similar lines, but this (I mean Ka's post) would also make sense from a packmate of Eönwë's who doesn't have high hopes for his longevity and wants to implicate Shasta if Steve is a wolf.

Pitch with the same thing. Nice. :smokin:

[Thinlómien]

Shasta, in your long post you attribute this quote
As for the ‘when to vote’ concern comparatively Pitch in #933 agrees with Lommy over Zil on voting earlier to help the QT (which was innocent majority at that point) and help GT innocents:to me and it's not my quote. I'm pretty sure it's THE Ka because she typoed "GT" at least once and it made me smile because it made me think of the quarantined people being in "gin tonic" thread. :D

[Boromir88]

A Kath-alysis

Day 1

Big contribution to the day was arguing that the proposed vote for the QT, was not Legate's idea, but G55's. Legate added to it, but she was the first to point out it originated from G55. Questions Huey about his suspicions of Mac. Suggests Mac and Pitch are the next big dust up brewing. (Turned out to be G55 and Rikae).

Votes G55. I can't see anything suspicious with Kath's Day 1 actions...other than she did vote on Day 1. :D She seemed primarily focused on LGP that dominated the earlier half. Settled on G55 for trying to pass the responsibility of the proposed voting onto Legate.

Day 2

Analyzes the Day 1 vote. Most suspicious vote she seemed to be saying came from Eonwe's throwaway to Urwen. Primary contribution I would say is she doesn't follow along with those saying Rikae's death framed them. Thinks more likely wolves were gifted-hunting.

Votes Inzil for pressing on about Kit being a ranger. Day 2 was between Mac and Huey, but Inzil vote looks reasoned.

Day 3

Defends why she voted for Inzil and Lhuna was her 2nd choice. Reasons being how Kit appeared to be pressed too much into revealing by Inzil and Lhuna. Votes Inzil again.

Her focus this day is on those who were pressing Kit on Day 2. Those were 2 quite lengthy posts.

Day 4

Seems to disapprove of all the revealing going on from the first 3 days. Her first post of the day focused on sally's reveal and how everyone reacted. Questions me if I believed sally's reveal. Proposes to QT to vote either Inzil or Lhuna. Looks through Lhuna's post, decides to vote Lhuna. Puts Lhuna up to 5, Eonwe 3.

Vote looks solid. If Kath was a wolf, she pretty much stabbed Lhuna in the back and turned the knife.

I haven't looked at her posts yet today. Want to try to get to a few other people...

Overall impression is feeling innocent. She focuses on one path each day, doesn't get sidetracked by all the other stuff going on. A decisive vote to lynch Lhuna when a wolf still could have saved her.

I also really just enjoy her style of questioning. It's direct and straight forward. No veiled suspicions or tricks. A simple "Did you believe sally's reveal or not?" "What did you mean with the Legate-G55-Pitch kerfuffle from Day 1?" She's probing for information, but they're not "gotcha" questions, I don't feel like I'm walking into a trap with her questions. So yeah, not sure, but feel good.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Fair point about you and Lhuna being tied, I didn't consider it from that angle. But I don't think she reconsidered her opinion about you, she just decided pursuing Lhuna was more important. (Which, I guess would have been fair enough from a seer who had dreamt of wolf!you if she was feeling confident she would survive until another Day to come out; that way both you and Lhuna could be caught.) She seemed highly trusting of the QT after all. But - I'm acknowledging I'm building quite a shaky construction here based on my interpretation of a clueless ordo's posts, trying to think like a wolf who thought she was the seer and with no actual knowledge of the wolves' identities to help me here. Still, I don't think Lalaith's suspicion of you is a thing we should entirely ignore, especially paired with (who said that?) the previous wolf kill Legate having suspected you too - while mostly you've flown relatively under the village's collective radar.

This all being said, ironically enough Eönwë's #1115 might be the first post of his in this game that I find both very sensible and genuine in tone.

~*~

I don't follow. I was under the impression that the ones who join the QT are allowed to read back what has been said there before? In that case they would all know as much. (And if they weren't allowed to read back, I doubt Rikae summarising earlier events to the others would be forbidden too?)


For what it's worth, Lommy, this discussion with Eonwe you're having is making me feel better about you. :p

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Are we just picking the two most likely wolves as per Greenie's analysis now?
I get where the suspicion of Ka comes from, but I wouldn't want to vote her after she just defended me against Shasta, because it would feel mean. ToMorrow is another question, depending on what happens till then.


For the Cuties:


+- Eönwë (loose thread in the Gordian Knot)
+- Zil (not fully convinced but rather than anyone else at this point)

Purposely infecting people with Morgoth's Breath is meaner.

[Boromir88]

Well, I was going to do a Ka-alysis, but I see I've cross posted with some current action regarding THE Ka and Shasta so I will read that now.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Shasta, in your long post you attribute this quote
to me and it's not my quote. I'm pretty sure it's THE Ka because she typoed "GT" at least once and it made me smile because it made me think of the quarantined people being in "gin tonic" thread. :D

Crap, yeah, it's Ka. There's a lot of formatting in that post. I'll fix it.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

I feel like I'm almost certainly going to vote for Ka now, but I also kinda want to hold my vote until the end on general principle. :p

[Inziladun]

Purposely infecting people with Morgoth's Breath is meaner.

Well, when you put it that way....

[Thinlómien]

Boro's analysis of Kath makes her look quite good, but I have to disagree about the Lhuna vote. Even if Kath had voted Eönwë, Lhuna would still have been on the lead because she reached 4 votes first. There would have still needed to be more subsequent votes for Eönwë than for Lhuna to save her, and that's why I don't think Kath's vote was that pivotal. Sure, she was in a place to give Lhuna a fighting chance. But I don't think she was in a place to save her. I can see a packmate not considering it worth it.

(Given that I'm quite suspicious of Eönwë, I can't help but to think what if the two bandwagons actually formed between two wolves yesterDay and they weren't (in a position to be) decisive enough to try to turn the tide. In that case no one's Lhuna-vote makes much difference except maybe the very first ones. But yeah this is a whole another kettle of fish again.)


PS.

I feel like I'm almost certainly going to vote for Ka now, but I also kinda want to hold my vote until the end on general principle. :rolleyes::rolleyes:

[Shastanis Althreduin]

well, when you put it that way....

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

[Shastanis Althreduin]

ps.

:rolleyes::rolleyes:

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

[Boromir88]

I'm anxious to see who the QT gives us to think about today. Does anyone have a tally of our proposed votes for the QT?

Boro's analysis of Kath makes her look quite good, but I have to disagree about the Lhuna vote. Even if Kath had voted Eönwë, Lhuna would still have been on the lead because she reached 4 votes first. There would have still needed to be more subsequent votes for Eönwë than for Lhuna to save her, and that's why I don't think Kath's vote was that pivotal. Sure, she was in a place to give Lhuna a fighting chance. But I don't think she was in a place to save her. I can see a packmate not considering it worth it.


Well, Kath couldn't have known what I was going to do, but I was holding onto my vote, because there were a few (myself included) who had votes and didn't want to see lynched. Ok, maybe not the most pivotal/decisive vote, but I was waiting around to see who people were going to vote for and whether they were going with the QT or not. Definitely made my vote much easier than previous days, because I did view it as solidifying Lhuna's lynch, when there was still an opportunity to save her.

[Nogrod]

The Quarantine Thread has given its vote.


++ Rune Son of Bjarne (Son of Marx)

[Shastanis Althreduin]

That is... not where I expected them to vote, given the day's discussion. Hmm.

[Inziladun]

That is... not where I expected them to vote, given the day's discussion. Hmm.

Agreed. Wonder how they got there.

[Loslote]

O....kay....Not what I expected at all.

[Inziladun]

Could lightning strike two Days in a row? There are some sharp people over there, no question. It isn't the way I would have voted toDay, but then I seem to recall saying that yesterDay....:rolleyes:

x/d with Lottie

[Kath]

Rune? That is a surprise!

I was holding on to see what the QT vote would be, but I do have to go, and I don't have time to look into the possible reasoning behind this, so I will go with what I said earlier.

++INZIL

[Pitchwife]

Dang. How likely is it that Lhuna decided this vote?

[Inziladun]

Rune? That is a surprise!

I was holding on to see what the QT vote would be, but I do have to go, and I don't have time to look into the possible reasoning behind this, so I will go with what I said earlier.

++INZIL (highlight removed for vote-counting clarity)

Well, at least she's consistent.

x/d with Pitch

[Thinlómien]

I am also very surprised.

I'm taking this as "stop taking Rune's innocence for granted" at the very least.

But enough reason to do a legate180 and vote him?

Ehhhhhh.........

I need to think this over. Possibly look at Rune's posts if I have the time (there aren't that many and they aren't that long).


edit: xed with the last three

[Inziladun]

Dang. How likely is it that Lhuna decided this vote?

Don't the innocents have a majority? Lhuna would only have the power to break a tie.

x/d with Lommy

[Brinniel]

Interesting.

I saw logic in Lommy's reasoning that Rune could be innocent with the theory that Legate "dreamed" him and then Lhuna trying to disregard that possibility. However I don't think Rune's behavior in itself has been necessarily innocent. Considering he hasn't been heavily discussed here toDay, I wonder if the QT is reading into something we're not seeing.

I'm not sure if I'm ready to follow the QT vote toDay, but I definitely think he's worth taking another look at.

[Thinlómien]

Dang. How likely is it that Lhuna decided this vote?Possible but I would say quite unlikely. Only if the dead innocents made a mess, basically.

[Boromir88]

Fascinating...

Hmm, well maybe I can do a look through Rune. Yesterday I was already suspicious of Lhuna. Maybe just a knock on our head saying Rune's been passed over/fallen off the side of the road lately, should get discussing him.

It would take a lot more than the QT vote today to get me seriously considering Rune.

[Pitchwife]

Don't the innocents have a majority? Lhuna would only have the power to break a tie.
Yes. I meant whether there was a tie and she broke it. But we can't know that.

[Inziladun]

QT contains:

G55 (Cobbler), Rikae (Innocent), Huey (Infector), Kit (Ranger), Sally (Hunter), Legate (Innocent), Lhuna (Infector), and Lal (Innocent).

Five Innocents against three baddies.

x/d with previous four

[Inziladun]

Possible but I would say quite unlikely. Only if the dead innocents made a mess, basically.

I can't see them splitting their votes. Surely there was a bloc against the evil contingent.

[Thinlómien]

Interesting.

I saw logic in Lommy's reasoning that Rune could be innocent with the theory that Legate "dreamed" him and then Lhuna trying to disregard that possibility. However I don't think Rune's behavior in itself has been necessarily innocent. Considering he hasn't been heavily discussed here toDay, I wonder if the QT is reading into something we're not seeing.

I'm not sure if I'm ready to follow the QT vote toDay, but I definitely think he's worth taking another look at.Now that you mention it, I guess you could read me and Lhuna's exchange as Lhuna trying to look good by pointing out a flaw in my reasoning, while it didn't really work because it didn't look like a flaw to anyone who didn't know Rune is a wolf?

If Rune is a wolf, I would hazard a guess that THE Ka is too. Remember how she compared me and Lhuna's arguments (in a manner that I can't call anything but weird) and came to the conclusion that mine is better? How convenient if Rune was her packmate and she was basically saying "shh Lhuna, let the innocents faultily conclude our packmate is innocent".


edit: xed with everyone

[Shastanis Althreduin]

QT contains:

G55 (Cobbler), Rikae (Innocent), Huey (Infector), Kit (Ranger), Sally (Hunter), Legate (Innocent), Lhuna (Infector), and Lal (Innocent).

Five Innocents against three baddies.

x/d with previous four

Don't forget Mac.

[Loslote]

At this point, I would be willing to vote Rune, Ka, or maybe Eonwe. I don't want to vote Zil right now - I don't know how much I believe that both he and Lhuna were involved in the Kit thing in the same way.

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

Hi I am reading through the thread right now, but thought I would comment on Shastas long posts (don't know if my own quotes are included)


Re: Rune - here's the flip-flop in its entirety.



Underlining mine. Exactly ten minutes later:



This whole series has nothing to do with Eonwe - Rune barely mentions him as someone he might vote. To postulate that as a pattern of behavior, as Ka does here -




I guess I can see how arrive at that conclusion, if of course you don't understand the context of the posts.

Anyways, let me explain. The first post is me reacting to the events of the day as I read through the thread. It might be a short post, but it was actually put together over the course of 45 minutes or so.

My post 10 minutes later is a summarization of my top suspects.
You see when I decide who to cast my vote for, i normally take into account what has happened through out the game, and not just during the last day.

So put simply the posts wasn't intended to align 1:1 or be a continuation of one another, as they did not deal with the same issues.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Now that you mention it, I guess you could read me and Lhuna's exchange as Lhuna trying to look good by pointing out a flaw in my reasoning, while it didn't really work because it didn't look like a flaw to anyone who didn't know Rune is a wolf?

If Rune is a wolf, I would hazard a guess that THE Ka is too. Remember how she compared me and Lhuna's arguments (in a manner that I can't call anything but weird) and came to the conclusion that mine is better? How convenient if Rune was her packmate and she was basically saying "shh Lhuna, let the innocents faultily conclude our packmate is innocent".


edit: xed with everyone

Hum. Could it be as easy as Rune/Ka/Eonwe?

[Shastanis Althreduin]

at this point, i would be willing to vote rune, ka, or maybe eonwe. I don't want to vote zil right now - i don't know how much i believe that both he and lhuna were involved in the kit thing in the same way.

:d

[Loslote]

Hum. Could it be as easy as Rune/Ka/Eonwe?

That seems too easy, but I think we have to lynch one of them toDay, it makes too much sense to not give it a try.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

What happened to that post of mine? All the letters have become lowercase and I can't edit any of them to be uppercase.

[Boromir88]

So this might go completely opposite of what I've been championing for with the QT for days. But I do want to put a reminder that we still have the living seer, so while this is an unexpected choice for the QT, they have no known evidence to Rune's guilt or innocence. Same applied to Lhuna yesterday.

It might turn up beneficial/we find out more from it tomorrow, but for today, it's too much of a turnaround to make in 2 hours.

[A Little Green]

I'm sorry for my lousy participation toDay, I still feel awful and can't stick around. I've skim-read the thread but that's about it, and don't have the brain capacity to think about Rune, so I'll go with -

++ Inziladun

Mainly because of his compatibility with both known wolves (see below). Also his reactions to being implicated by the possible attempt to save Huin on D2 - paranoia/defensiveness re: how bad it made him look, then after Sally had come under a significant amount of fire for similar behaviour, he essentially changes tack and tells people to lynch him if they like. Then comes in minutes into the next Day with a ready-made case against Lommy for her involvement in lynching Sally. None of this sits right with me.

Inzil
Very possible packmate for both. I’m trying very hard to avoid my earlier tunnel vision problem here (sorry Mac ) and expected to find something between Inzil and Lhuna that would make him look less suspicious, but – nope. His interactions with Huin were, as previously discussed, mutual suspicion without votes either way, and Inzil voting for Mac on D2 in a way that could have been an attempt to save Huin. Meanwhile he and Lhuna barely mention each other; on D4 Inzil says the QT pick is "interesting" but Lhuna isn't his first choice, and votes for Lommy in the same post. This is certainly consistent with his crusade against Lommy that started pretty much the minute D4 began and that I’m still not comfortable with; but as pretty much the only time either of them expresses an opinion about the other, it looks pretty bad.

Apologies again, I really hope to be able to contribute more toMorrow (in whichever thread).

[Loslote]

What happened to that post of mine? All the letters have become lowercase and I can't edit any of them to be uppercase.

It must have read : D as an all uppercase post. During the Sally deadline, I responded to a post where she said she was going to hunt me with "DON'T." and it autocorrected it to "don't.", so I think all caps isn't allowed.

[Pitchwife]

I can't see them splitting their votes. Surely there was a bloc against the evil contingent.
All it would have taken is an early innocent vote for Rune, three baddies pile on that, votes are tied, Lhuna breaks it. It's possible.
But assuming the innocents voted wolf!Rune conventiently happens to work in your favour, doesn't it?


Then again, I wonder whether calling him Rune Son of Bjarne, Son of Marx might indicate that the final vote was Legate's, as he has referred to Rune and Kath as Marx and Kant a few times. Though I guess it might also be a joke from Nog.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

That seems too easy, but I think we have to lynch one of them toDay, it makes too much sense to not give it a try.

For one thing, it means innocent-Zil. Hmm.

Thought exercise - who's the most likely to be innocent in Rune/Ka/Eonwe?

I think Rune - I wasn't really considering him until the QT vote.

[Loslote]

For one thing, it means innocent-Zil. Hmm.

Thought exercise - who's the most likely to be innocent in Rune/Ka/Eonwe?

I think Rune - I wasn't really considering him until the QT vote.

I think Eonwe. I've been interpreting Ka's latest posts as trying to tie you and Eonwe together to implicate you, but she could plausibly be doing that even if *both* you and Eonwe are innocent, just to try to get at least one of you lynched.

[Inziladun]

Don't forget Mac.

:o

[Shastanis Althreduin]

All it would have taken is an early innocent vote for Rune, three baddies pile on that, votes are tied, Lhuna breaks it. It's possible.
But assuming the innocents voted wolf!Rune conventiently happens to work in your favour, doesn't it?


Then again, I wonder whether calling him Rune Son of Bjarne, Son of Marx might indicate that the final vote was Legate's, as he has referred to Rune and Kath as Marx and Kant a few times. Though I guess it might also be a joke from Nog.

I don't think that's how the math works.

Innocent (Rikae, for example) votes Rune.

Huin/Lhuna/G55 all jump on and vote Rune.

Mac/Sally/Kit/Legate/Lalaith can vote someone else as a bloc of 5.

Now, if they didn't do that, I guess it's possible, but still, they must have known many of us were taking the QT vote as innocent-based.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

I think Eonwe. I've been interpreting Ka's latest posts as trying to tie you and Eonwe together to implicate you, but she could plausibly be doing that even if *both* you and Eonwe are innocent, just to try to get at least one of you lynched.

Hmm. Maybe. I think Ka's lack of talking much about Eonwe is telling, though.

Although I haven't looked specifically to see how much Ka said about Rune either.

[Loslote]

I don't think that's how the math works.

Innocent (Rikae, for example) votes Rune.

Huin/Lhuna/G55 all jump on and vote Rune.

Mac/Sally/Kit/Legate/Lalaith can vote someone else as a bloc of 5.

Now, if they didn't do that, I guess it's possible, but still, they must have known many of us were taking the QT vote as innocent-based.

They managed to vote for Lhuna yesterDay, I think we have to assume they're working together fairly well and are sending us very deliberate signals.

[Inziladun]

Now, if they didn't do that, I guess it's possible, but still, they must have known many of us were taking the QT vote as innocent-based.

Especially after their advice was taken yesterDay, with dramatic results.

x/d with Lottie, who makes the same point

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

Could lightning strike two Days in a row? There are some sharp people over there, no question. It isn't the way I would have voted toDay, but then I seem to recall saying that yesterDay....:rolleyes:

x/d with Lottie

You know it doesn't.

But I get why you would say that.

The Quarantine Thread has given its vote.


++ Rune Son of Bjarne (Son of Marx)

I expected to get a bit of attention today, but honestly I thought it would have regarding the timing of my vote yesterday (considering Lhuna turned out being an infector). Really surprised as both Legate and Lalaith to be reasonably convinced of my innocence.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

I'm going to make Lommy happy and ++Ka - I don't see myself going much of anywhere else after the events of the last couple hours.

[Pitchwife]

I don't think that's how the math works.

Innocent (Rikae, for example) votes Rune.

Huin/Lhuna/G55 all jump on and vote Rune.

Mac/Sally/Kit/Legate/Lalaith can vote someone else as a bloc of 5.

Now, if they didn't do that, I guess it's possible, but still, they must have known many of us were taking the QT vote as innocent-based.
Right, I was working with the wrong number (omitting Mac).


I'm not ready to vote Rune quite yet, but I could go with either of Ka or Eönwë (duly noted about Morgoth's Breath).

[Loslote]

I expected to get a bit of attention today, but honestly I thought it would have regarding the timing of my vote yesterday (considering Lhuna turned out being an infector). Really surprised as both Legate and Lalaith to be reasonably convinced of my innocence.

That's a good point, but probably not in the way you meant. If Legate and Lalaith were convinced to vote for you, they must know something in the QT that we don't in the living thread.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

That's a good point, but probably not in the way you meant. If Legate and Lalaith were convinced to vote for you, they must know something in the QT that we don't in the living thread.

Such as?

[Shastanis Althreduin]

That's an honest question, by the way, because I can't see what they could know that we don't. They were right on Lhuna yesterday, sure, but they aren't - can't be - infallible.

[Loslote]

Such as?

A slip by Huinwolf seems the most likely.

[Inziladun]

That's an honest question, by the way, because I can't see what they could know that we don't. They were right on Lhuna yesterday, sure, but they aren't - can't be - infallible.

Indeed. Unless Huey and Lhuna have been careless, the QT mainly has to work with what we have here.

x/d with Lottie

[Eönwë]

Just skimmed and wanted to check in for a moment (will be back properly in about half an hour). I've been suspecting Rune for Days.

++ Rune

I'm also very suspicious of anyone trying to immediately discredit/minimize what the QT has said - obviously, the innocents don't know anything, so reasonable doubt is merited, but I don't like these two reactions:

Dang. How likely is it that Lhuna decided this vote?

I am also very surprised.

I'm taking this as "stop taking Rune's innocence for granted" at the very least.

But enough reason to do a legate180 and vote him?

Ehhhhhh.........

I need to think this over. Possibly look at Rune's posts if I have the time (there aren't that many and they aren't that long).

[Inziladun]

So we currently have:

Kath--> Inzil
Greenie--> Inzil (2)
Shasta--> TheKa
Steve--> Rune

[Shastanis Althreduin]

That's a consistent reaction from those two, for what that's worth:

It's 6:3 now; Hui & Lhuna can PM behind the others' backs, and we can count on G55 to vote with whatever the wolves come up with, so yes, a concerted baddie action to derail the QT vote is not out of the question. We'll all have to see what the Cuties come up with and decide whether we're willing to trust it.
This, and Lommy's post as well, rub me the wrong way. Smacks of trying to get us to mistrust the QT vote as not coming from a good place - while the dead innocents don't have any extra knowledge, I think there's slim-to-no chance they mess up, split 3/3, and give the evil deaders control (because that's literally the only scenario in which evil gets control.)

While sure, it's not impossible, I think there's a tiny enough chance of it occurring that I plan to fully trust the QT vote as coming from an innocent perspective, and casting pre-emptive doubt on it strikes me as shady.

[Boromir88]

A slip by Huinwolf seems the most likely.

In the hands of the innocent dead, I can't see any of the evil-doers being careless. I don't know Huey that well, but G55 and Lhuna are probably having a blast posting nonsense, not at all related to anything that's going on here.

[Pitchwife]

I'm also very suspicious of anyone trying to immediately discredit/minimize what the QT has said - obviously, the innocents don't know anything, so reasonable doubt is merited, but I don't like these two reactions:
I don't think it's such an outlandish reaction when they vote somebody you felt very much was innocent.

[Boromir88]

Eonwe's vote looks very easy and bad. That sort of solidifies my choice.

I'll still be here posting some nonsense for tomorrow.

++Eonwe

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

A couple of comments on stuff that has been said today.

And by the way, I still maintain that them dropping off the Brinn vote as soon as the innocent majority took over is a point in Brinn's favour. The innocents in the qt thread have read what lead to Huine and Gal picking Brinn for the second Day in a row, and they're in a much better position to judge Brinn's connection to Huine than we are.


I have long maintained my suspicion of Brinn, but Lommy makes a good point here. Though taking recent events into consideration I would like to stress that an innocent QT thread is clearly quite capable of mistakes.

Quote:

Also, generally, I'm not sure actually sure if the Kit discussion is actually as suspicious people make it sound (I know there have been mixed opinions on this). Harmful to the village, yes, but suspicious? I'm not so sure. Other than Zil who first pointed it out (which may have been in attempt to lure how out more if he's evil), discussion of something that looks weird seems more likely to be something innocent would do, because wolves know that any kind of slip by a non-wolf is not a wolf-slip (and thus a gifted-slip), and have the Night to discuss it.
Except that Lhuna, one of the key people involved in that discussion has just turned out to be a wolf. So if you're thinking Inzil could be a wolf trying to lure people out, and then there's Lhuna who was a wolf, then that discussion is absolutely a source of suspicion.

I love this bit from Kath. Eönwë is once again taking a weird stance regarding Kitana, and she rightly points out the flaw in his argument. This and his continued suspicion of her is very peculiar indeed.

[Thinlómien]

Then again, I wonder whether calling him Rune Son of Bjarne, Son of Marx might indicate that the final vote was Legate's, as he has referred to Rune and Kath as Marx and Kant a few times. Though I guess it might also be a joke from Nog. I very much doubt the mod would intentionally give us clues like that.

Hm. Is it just me or has Pitchwife's posting generally been kinda... scrambled toDay compared to usual? Like a wolf feeling the tide is turning against his pack? I mean, I still consider him likely innocent for the crucial Huine vote, but being unlikely wolf-on-wolf isn't the same as being impossible wolf-on-wolf

I'm going to make Lommy happy and ++Ka - I don't see myself going much of anywhere else after the events of the last couple hours. :confused: Why does this make me happy?

Thought exercise - who's the most likely to be innocent in Rune/Ka/Eonwe? Before the QT vote toDay I would have said "Rune" without a doubt. Now I need to reconsider what I'm basing my trust of Rune on. Personally I feel it's a bit of a coin toss between Ka and Eönwë. Eönwë could be my classic type of kneejerkily misinterpreting someone innocent as suspicious in ww, Ka on the other hand could still be eccentric good instead of eccentric evil. But that being said, I'm still more suspicious of both of them (and of Zil) than I am of Rune.

Also I don't "distrust" the QT vote. I just don't think they know so much more than us that we should follow them without a question, or that their vote couldn't be tampered with by the evil side (even though that's quite unlikely). There's a difference.


edit: xed with the last three

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Because I didn't hold my vote to the end, Lommy. :p

[Thinlómien]

Because I didn't hold my vote to the end, Lommy. :pAwwwwww how tragic I didn't even realise that! Good boy! :D

Gonna have a quick look at Rune's posts, but currently would still feel better about Zil, Ka or Eönwë.

[THE Ka]

(Back, sorry, trying to plan and coordinate with family stuff.)

I get where the suspicion of Ka comes from, but I wouldn't want to vote her after she just defended me against Shasta, because it would feel mean.

That's thoughtful, but if I look suspicious and you have evidence to identify so, then go for it. I'm not holding it against anyone for going ahead and playing the game.

Honestly, part of me is really still curious about the QT (as much as some of you wish I'd stop talking about mechanics... Sorry!), so if I end up there so be it.

but I also kinda want to hold my vote until the end on general principle.

Gotta keep the tradition alive friend.

I don't feel like I'm walking into a trap with her questions. So yeah, not sure, but feel good.

... Hmmm.


As for the QT vote... not expecting that and I don't really see why Rune.

I can't see them splitting their votes. Surely there was a bloc against the evil contingent.

I'd certainly hope so, the innocent should hold majority and be suspicious of anything the other three say. To be zany, considering the two wolves can PM each other, they could have decided to push some other choice than Rune knowing the rest besides G55 would do the complete opposite, but that's a reach. I'd hope the majority would have considered that factor, because three shouldn't be able to overthrow that much of a majority.

I'd also assume that if anything, the innocents are going to trust any past insights their two gifteds could have, which might mean either Kit and Sally voted elsewhere, or at least one of them suspects Rune. Neither of them is the Seer, so at the end of it, whatever information they have isn't sure proof on roles. It would be down to the feeling of trust that innocents are going to want to back their gifteds.

[Thinlómien]

I'd certainly hope so, the innocent should hold majority and be suspicious of anything the other three say. To be zany, considering the two wolves can PM each other, they could have decided to push some other choice than Rune knowing the rest besides G55 would do the complete opposite, but that's a reach. I'd hope the majority would have considered that factor, because three shouldn't be able to overthrow that much of a majority.

I'd also assume that if anything, the innocents are going to trust any past insights their two gifteds could have, which might mean either Kit and Sally voted elsewhere, or at least one of them suspects Rune. Neither of them is the Seer, so at the end of it, whatever information they have isn't sure proof on roles. It would be down to the feeling of trust that innocents are going to want to back their gifteds.This makes very little sense to me. How do you determine which players are "opposite" choices in a way that you can manipulate with? And why would any ordo trust a known hunter/ranger's word any more than a known fellow ordo's?

[Boromir88]

Not really a Ka-alysis, but just a point...on her vote yesterday.

Strongly agree with Lottie's take about Ka's vote for Lhuna yesterday. Technically there could be a wolf-on-wolf vote anywhere to a pack bold enough. I prefer to not look at the wolf-on-wolf votes as the most suspicious, but agree that Ka's vote has that look of wolf-on-wolf. She waffles a bit on on Lhuna doesn't bring up any more suspicions against her, and votes based on trust of the QT.

It was an early vote and what makes it look a good spot for wolf-on-wolf is that she vote Lhuna, but doesn't give really any more information to use against Lhuna.

[Eönwë]

Hum. Could it be as easy as Rune/Ka/Eonwe?

Unfortunately not. But could it be as easy as Rune/Ka/Shasta? Maybe. If both of you are trying to pin each other to me and I turn out to be innocent, doesn't that make your suspicion unfounded, thereby giving yourself a way out of suspecting each other?

[Eönwë]

'Both' in my last post referring to Ka and Shasta.

[Thinlómien]

I quickly read all Rune's posts (sorry, no summary, I didn't think I'd have time for that), and he really doesn't strike me as very suspicious. His tone is pretty genuine, and I like his no-nonsense attitude, but I have a bit of a vibe that he's watching the situation from the sidelines with popcorn, which would fit a wolf largely slipping under the village's radar.

The only thing that really stands out is possibly trying to save Lhuna yesterDay, but he's been very consistent about suspecting Eönwë and never suspected Lhuna much so the choice is perhaps understandable. Apart from Eönwë, he consistently suspects Zil.

But re: Eönwë and Lhuna, I find it rather interesting that on Day1 he said:

Just so you know I am biased (or blind) in some ways. I naturally suspect Loslote and Eonwe, I believe it has always been thus. I always want to believe the best of Lhuna, I know it has always been thus.Is he really a self-fulfilling prophecy, or was this him laying grounds for trusting fellow!Lhuna and going for innocent!Eönwë (and possibly innocent!Lottie) later in the game?

Gonna xpost with everyone since my last.

[Inziladun]

What the heck. At least I'm pretty certain the QT isn't trying to lead me astray. He's also voted me at least once.

++Rune

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Unfortunately not. But could it be as easy as Rune/Ka/Shasta? Maybe. If both of you are trying to pin each other to me and I turn out to be innocent, doesn't that make your suspicion unfounded, thereby giving yourself a way out of suspecting each other?

Not especially. My suspicion of Ka has a lot to do with her reluctance to go after you based on her main point against me, that much is true - but equally it has a lot to do with the opportunism vibe I get from her sally at me, which has not a lot to do with you.

[Thinlómien]

QT -> Rune
Kath -> Inzil
Greenie -> Inzil 2
Shasta -> THE Ka
Eönwë -> Rune 2
Boro -> Eönwë
Inzil -> Rune 3

I would still prefer one of Zil/Ka/Eönwë over Rune, but I'm not sure which. I still find Zil the most suspicious of them, but this whole debacle toDay makes me sorta more eager to prod in the Ka/Eönwë direction.

[Eönwë]

Current vote count:

QT --> Rune
Kath --> Zil
Greenie --> Zil (2)
Shasta --> Ka
Eonwe --> Rune (2)
Boro --> Eonwe
Zil --> Rune (3)

edit: x-ed with Lommy

[Loslote]

QT -> Rune
Kath -> Inzil
Greenie -> Inzil 2
Shasta -> THE Ka
Eönwë -> Rune 2
Boro -> Eönwë
Inzil -> Rune 3

I would still prefer one of Zil/Ka/Eönwë over Rune, but I'm not sure which. I still find Zil the most suspicious of them, but this whole debacle toDay makes me sorta more eager to prod in the Ka/Eönwë direction.

I would prefer to vote for Ka or Rune.

[Boromir88]

I don't feel like I'm walking into a trap with her questions. So yeah, not sure, but feel good.~Boro
... Hmmm.


That's my best attempt of quote imbedded in quotes...hopefully it looks ok.

Anyway. Yes?

An innocent can set a trap for a wolf as easily as a wolf can set a trap for an innocent.

When answering Kath's questions, I just don't feel any veiled attempt to cast suspicion or make it a "gotcha" question. Makes her probing for information look innocent.

[Thinlómien]

++Inzil

I still think the case against him is the most evidence we have. See: Greenie's vote post. Or half of my posts from yesterDay.

And I'm not really convinced about lynching Rune toDay. It doesn't really help that basically the two people who I suspect the most have been the ones to jump on the QT vote.

[Boromir88]

I would prefer to vote for Ka or Rune.

For what it's worth, I would say stay the course, if you weren't going to vote for Rune before the QT vote came out and are only considering him for those reasons than better to go with Ka.

[Pitchwife]

I quickly read all Rune's posts (sorry, no summary, I didn't think I'd have time for that), and he really doesn't strike me as very suspicious. His tone is pretty genuine, and I like his no-nonsense attitude, but I have a bit of a vibe that he's watching the situation from the sidelines with popcorn, which would fit a wolf largely slipping under the village's radar.
I just did the same, and can't find any fault with your description here.

But re: Eönwë and Lhuna, I find it rather interesting that on Day1 he said:
Just so you know I am biased (or blind) in some ways. I naturally suspect Loslote and Eonwe, I believe it has always been thus. I always want to believe the best of Lhuna, I know it has always been thus.Is he really a self-fulfilling prophecy, or was this him laying grounds for trusting fellow!Lhuna and going for innocent!Eönwë (and possibly innocent!Lottie) later in the game?
Interesting. From my experience being packmates with Rune last game, I remember him not being too confident in his lupine capacity, so this could actually make sense.

[Loslote]

For what it's worth, I would say stay the course, if you weren't going to vote for Rune before the QT vote came out and are only considering him for those reasons than better to go with Ka.

Maybe, but the way Rune has been posting after the QT vote reads wolfy to me, and I suspected him earlier in the game...plus, it doesn't look like a Ka vote is all that likely at this point, so:

++Rune

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

The only thing that really stands out is possibly trying to save Lhuna yesterDay, but he's been very consistent about suspecting Eönwë and never suspected Lhuna much so the choice is perhaps understandable. Apart from Eönwë, he consistently suspects Zil.

But re: Eönwë and Lhuna, I find it rather interesting that on Day1 he said:

Is he really a self-fulfilling prophecy, or was this him laying grounds for trusting fellow!Lhuna and going for innocent!Eönwë (and possibly innocent!Lottie) later in the game?


It's the former. I don't do lists and I don't do grand strategies. I am quite limited in my approach to this game, though I do have fun. I don't mean to always suspect Eönwë, but here we stand again.

Anyways, if Eönwë turns out to be innocent this time, then it is not just a matte of different styles that separates us, and makes me prepositioned to distrust him. Our minds must then work fundamentally different. I cannot fathom why an innocent would have attitude towards the Kitanna reveal and debate that he had. Nor do I understand why an innocent would be so eager to support the QT thread, suggesting all that doesn't are suspicious... too brasen too opportunistic for an innocent.

I would prefer to vote for Ka or Rune.
Please don't vote for me, it would be a waste.

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

Maybe, but the way Rune has been posting after the QT vote reads wolfy to me, and I suspected him earlier in the game...plus, it doesn't look like a Ka vote is all that likely at this point, so:

++Rune

Fair enough if you felt we were your own real options. It is a mistake though.

[Brinniel]

Staying with my first choice:

++Inzil

[Eönwë]

Also, generally, I'm not sure actually sure if the Kit discussion is actually as suspicious people make it sound (I know there have been mixed opinions on this). Harmful to the village, yes, but suspicious? I'm not so sure. Other than Zil who first pointed it out (which may have been in attempt to lure how out more if he's evil), discussion of something that looks weird seems more likely to be something innocent would do, because wolves know that any kind of slip by a non-wolf is not a wolf-slip (and thus a gifted-slip), and have the Night to discuss it.
Except that Lhuna, one of the key people involved in that discussion has just turned out to be a wolf. So if you're thinking Inzil could be a wolf trying to lure people out, and then there's Lhuna who was a wolf, then that discussion is absolutely a source of suspicion.


I love this bit from Kath. Eönwë is once again taking a weird stance regarding Kitana, and she rightly points out the flaw in his argument. This and his continued suspicion of her is very peculiar indeed.

I have a very strong feeling that wolves might attempt to use this as a way to brush potential wolf-slips under the carpet - if it seems like something that could possibly be a gifted slip, it is ignored. Obviously this does protect the gifteds, but is it worth it to just ignore possible wolves hiding among us? I don't know. I know part of why I hopped on the Huey-waggon was his slip. And Kit's was clearly pretty Rangery, but that isn't always the case. If people are too concerned to point something out, wolves get a free pass where they shouldn't.

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

++Inziladun

[Thinlómien]

QT -> Rune
Kath -> Inzil
Greenie -> Inzil 2
Shasta -> THE Ka
Eönwë -> Rune 2
Boro -> Eönwë
Inzil -> Rune 3
Lommy -> Inzil 3
Lottie -> Rune 4
Brinn -> Inzil 4
Rune -> Inzil 5

Who's left? THE Ka and Pitch?

[Pitchwife]

Frell. I believe Rune.

++Inziladun

[Eönwë]

Part of me feels like the reactionary Zil-waggon is something that was prepared by the wolves to break out at a time of need (though obviously not all Zil-voters are going to be evil), but another part of me is still suspicious of him and curious to know what his role is.

[Eönwë]

There's also the unlikely but possible scenario that they're both evil and the wolves are trying to work out who to throw under the bus (there are only 3 now, so it's presumably harder to steer/orchestrate a waggon, especially with the counteracting force of the QT)

[Loslote]

Well, it's Zil then. I hope you were a wolf. I'm not sure how I feel about the people who voted for Zil early, though. Seems like an easy vote on a Day when a lot of people had much stronger suspicions.

[Inziladun]

Part of me feels like the reactionary Zil-waggon is something that was prepared by the wolves to break out at a time of need (though obviously not all Zil-voters are going to be evil), but another part of me is still suspicious of him and curious to know what his role is.

If I was evil, this would be the time to say I'm the Seer!!

But, I'm not, neither am I a baddie.

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

If nothing else today has made me quite firm in my belief that Inziladun and Eönwë are two of our remaining infectors. Brinn was my third choice, but I am not sure it adds up anymore.

I get why it is compelling to want to leave your vote in the hands of known innocents, nobody likes making difficult choices, but the way it was seized upon by Eönwë and Inziladun just confirms my suspicions.

I don't blame people for considering voting (or actually voting for me), it would be weird if it wasn't a consideration, but there are different ways to approach such a thing and their seems wolfish.

Anyways the legitimacy of one of my long standing suspicions are about to be revealed exiting...

Part of me feels like the reactionary Zil-waggon is something that was prepared by the wolves to break out at a time of need (though obviously not all Zil-voters are going to be evil), but another part of me is still suspicious of him and curious to know what his role is.

Hmm why would you go and say this...

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

If I was evil, this would be the time to say I'm the Seer!!

But, I'm not, neither am I a baddie.

This makes me sad.

[Eönwë]

Posts from wolves' last days that I think are likely to be important/revealing:

I say this because I've been thinking Rune might be another submarine wolf. Given that I suspect you, this could be a way for you to use a Seer-candidate's words to keep others from taking a closer look at Rune. And it bothers me that at least a couple of people have agreed with you about him.

If Lommy and/or Boro are wolves, then their longevity as a pack would be better served by having a couple of relatively submarine packmates. And while I'm still convinced they're both suspicious, this village has so far had the bad habit of lynching those who are in the middle of the controversy of the Day who more often than not turn out to be innocent, and I'm sick of imagining the wolves cackling to themselves as they watch. Also, giving both of them one more Day and Night's worth of scrutiny should yield something a little bit more concrete.

i'm also not convinced about how Lommy explained that killing Legate as a possible Seer places Rune in a good light. I don't think Legate would have been that vocal about dreaming of him if he were the Seer.


It feels hypocritical to analyse these votes when I didn’t put one in.

DAY 3 VOTES (with Day 2, Day 1)

THE Ka -> Sally (Lottie 2, Brinniel 3)
QT -> Brinn (Brinn)
Eönwë -> Sally 2 (Hui 7, Urwen)
Kath -> Inzil (Inzil, G55 2)
Greenie -> Sally 3 (Mac 2, Mac)
Lommy -> Sally 4 (Mac, G55 5)
——HunterSally reveal——
Inzil -> Brinn 2 (Mac 5, G55 3)
Lottie -> Sally 5 (Hui 4, G55 4)
Lalaith -> Sally 6 (Hui 5, no vote)
Legate -> Sally 7 (Hui, Brinn 5)
Shasta -> Sally 8 (Mac 7, Pitch 2)
Brinn -> Sally 9 (Hui 6, G55 7)
Rune -> Inzil 2 (Lottie, Brinn 4)
Boro -> Sally 10 (Mac 6, Pitch)
Pitch -> Eonwe (Hui 3, Brinn 2)
No vote: Lhuna (Lommy, Lhuna)


Based on the voting patterns ALONE, these stand out to me at the moment:

Likely Innocent
Lottie
Cast a decisive Hui vote. Her reactions to being a possible Huntee looked genuinely innocent to me.

Pitch
Cast a decisive Hui vote. He believed sally’s reveal, so his vote for Eonwe shows integrity.


Bad
Eonwe
I still think his vote for Urwen was a throwaway.
I still believe his vote for Hui could be wolf-on-wolf.
He prefaced his vote for sally with
I do not understand this at all.

Lommy
I know she had been consistent about suspecting sally yesterDay, but she could be a wolf who knows that sally is likely to target an innocent based on her suspicions, so she boldly challenged her claim and pushed for her lynching. Two birds, one stone.

Shasta
I’m still not comfortable about that throwaway Mac vote. Also voting for Sally after this then afterwards saying this I don’t follow.

Boro
I still think his late vote for Mac on Day 2 was an attempt to save Hui. The strange thing, however, is that before the Huiwagon gained steam, he threw in a comment agreeing with Legate (after he expressed that he’s considering voting for Hui) that Hui was worth giving a more thorough look. He probably didn’t expect the Huiwagon to take off the way it did, and so held his vote at the last possible minute to save him.
His vote for sally came after concurring with Shasta’s first statement above. Also, his “If you're the hunter, happy killing” comment just sounds too flippant. Like “I know your current suspects are innocents so have fun killing any of them.” Again, two birds, one stone. I wouldn’t be surprised if at least a couple of wolves voted for sally for this very reason.


Should look more closely
Brinn
Mighty strange how all her votes came in towards the end of a successful bandwagon, even if we don’t count the Day 1 vote to save herself.

Rune
Last mention of Zil on Day 2, he was in his neutral zone, and his suspects were Brinn, Lottie, and Eonwe. YesterDay, he said his quick read-through had not yielded any new suspicions. Afterwards he asked to confirm if his understanding of why Zil and sally were being suspected is accurate, which Legate did. Next thing we see, he could vote for Zil as well as his three suspects without feeling too bad about it. So while his not voting for sally is consistent with his stand on her reveal, his choice of vote seems oddly out of the blue.

Greenie
Primarily because she has voted for two known innocents so far

Okay, reading over my main suspects (Mac, Pitch, Lommy, Zil, in that order for now):

Mac: Thought innocent yesterDay, but realised today that was down to not trusting the way people were suspecting him, when those people were a (now) known and a probable innocent. ToDay, launched straight into 'what if everyone thinks I'm a wolf', and starts in on Kitanna, which is an interesting line in view of, y'know... Kitanna. And he keeps trying to implicate the people who suspect him. I really don't like this.

Pitchwife: My chief suspect yesterDay, for his actions in the GLP & several 'just asking questions' posts; also his position on the Brinn-wagon (both suspicion and voting). Launches toDay with "this may implicate Brinn, except isn't that almost too obvious?" - I'm starting to view this less as 'just asking questions', and more as 'they will say both no and yes'. He suspects Zil with no explanation (at the time), and later pushes both the start and the stop of the Kit discussion, including one 'saw it as I was writing' crosspost that makes me feel like his post was intended to take credit for starting the 'let's shut it down' discussion.

Lommy: My second suspect yesterDay, mostly for reasons of tone I think. ToDay, she seems a lot better. #350 is a good example of this - she's not sitting there saying 'yes, but maybe no', she's analysing the evidence for both (all) sides of the discussion. And she's cast the first vote, too.

Zil: Completely off my radar yesterDay; it's those short posts of his. Today, spent a fair few posts talking about things we know aren't true, such as Rikae-wolf; even more posts on the Kit discussion; really, I'm seeing a lot of posts where Zil's contribution is shorter than what he's replying to! It may be just his style, so he's not top of my list, but he does look (at least at times) like a wolf trying to look active without having to say much.

I'm starting to worry I might just trust people who write long posts on multiple topics. :-/

Okay, at the moment I'm likely to vote Mac, but will take Pitch as still looking about as suspicious as yesterday (Mac's just more suspicious). Lommy I'm going to call neutral for now. Zil I think there's a better-than-even chance is a wolf.

At the moment, two of my top three have 1 vote each. It's going to be interesting to see who gets offered up to take the heat off them...

hS

Zil has one of the highest post counts? o.O How is that possibly true?

I think that raises him from 'moderate' to 'probable' wolf in my estimation. Sadly for Mac, with both of them having a vote, it doesn't make me think he himself is less suspicious - accusing your packmate right before one of you gets lynched sounds like a great way to alleviate suspicion of them.

hS

[Inziladun]

Anyways the legitimacy of one of my long standing suspicions are about to be revealed exiting...

No question about it.

x/d with Rune and Steve

[Thinlómien]

Well, it's Zil then. I hope you were a wolf. I'm not sure how I feel about the people who voted for Zil early, though. Seems like an easy vote on a Day when a lot of people had much stronger suspicions.To be fair, that was Kath and Greenie who have both repeatedly stated their reasons for suspecting Inzil and been at it for a while.

Yeah, I'm feeling a bit worried now, for all my suspicion of Zil. I guess I'm having the classic werewolf last minute second thoughts. :rolleyes:

I'm extremely sorry if you're innocent, Zil, but a part of me is glad you're going to be gone even if innocent because otherwise I'd be debating whether to vote you or someone else every Day for the rest of the game.

Which brings me to say, whatever Inzil is, his death will force a lot of us to look at other people, which surely isn't a bad thing.

Still sucks if he's innocent though. Doubly so if Rune is not.


edit: xed with #1223 and onwards

[Inziladun]

Is there beer in the QT? If so, all is well.

[Thinlómien]

Wouldn't it be a little late for a fake seer reveal, Zil?

[Brinniel]

Part of me feels like the reactionary Zil-waggon is something that was prepared by the wolves to break out at a time of need (though obviously not all Zil-voters are going to be evil), but another part of me is still suspicious of him and curious to know what his role is.
Well I've found him to be suspicious for awhile, but you are right that if he's innocent he was an easy target. Even if I'm completely wrong on this, I think at least his role could still reveal a lot about other players.

X-ed with a bunch

[Boromir88]

Parting words. Didn't have time to accomplish everything I wanted to....

Most suspicious of Eonwe for the quick latch onto QT's vote.

And Ka for pretty much the same reasons yesterday, even though it resulted in lynching a known wolf. Her posting today looks opportunistic against Shasta and then her response to me about not feeling like I'm walking into any traps.

Most comfortable with Lommy and Brinn.

Lean innocent towards Kath and Lottie

Neutral and waiting to determine on Rune, Pitch, Greenie, Shasta.

Good luck and happy lynching.

[Inziladun]

Wouldn't it be a little late for a fake seer reveal, Zil?

Yes, but it would still be fiendishly fun.

x/d with Boro

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

Is there beer in the QT? If so, all is well.

Yeah, but it is Bud Light...

[Inziladun]

Good luck and happy lynching.

Only lucky and happy for the Infectors.

[THE Ka]

Despite what may or may not be behind toDay's QT vote (and I could spend all day making theories on how regardless that the wolves in there can PM each other which is a big unknown factor), I have to stick with my suspicions since yesterDay on Rune. I just don't see him as a successful wolf lead. He seems more a safe cover.

Since the clock is winding down and I'm not really inclined to change my assumptions last minute, I'm keeping with my original choice toDay:

++Shasta

Seriously though, if you have more personal trust in your own evidence on me than the QT choice, then go for what you trust. It doesn't offend me, just play.

On that note, I've been neglecting chores and preparing for the next few days so I need to jump back into RL for awhile.

[Inziladun]

Yeah, but it is Bud Light...

That'll never do. Must find some Guinness or Yuengling.

x/d with Ka

[Thinlómien]

Is there beer in the QT? If so, all is well.I don't know but it's the gin tonic thread and Lalaith likely brought wine. :D

Somehow having a bad feeling about everything right now. Eönwë and Boro giving some last minute red flags acting like they're concentrating on everything but the lynch that's happening.

Ugh.


edit: xed with the five last ones

[Pitchwife]

Is there beer in the QT? If so, all is well.
Depends on which version of the Afterlife you believe in. (Muslims and Norse pagans have it better.)

[Inziladun]

Somehow having a bad feeling about everything right now. Eönwë and Boro giving some last minute red flags acting like they're concentrating on everything but the lynch that's happening.

Well, the Infectors have no doubt.

x/d with Pitch

[Boromir88]

Yes, but it would still be fiendishly fun.

x/d with Boro

True, or it could just be you've been under the gun for several days, so you're accepting death knowing no one would take such a reveal seriously (or I sure hope they wouldn't, but you never know...quite a paranoid and fickle bunch).

[Inziladun]

Lacho calad! Drego morn!

[Nogrod]

DEADLINE: PLEASE CEASE ALL POSTING!


Inziladun is moved into the QT.


Narration coming quite shortly.

[Eönwë]

Most suspicious of Eonwe for the quick latch onto QT's vote.

I've been suspicious of Rune since the beginning (early on I put it down to his bias against me, but he's done nothing to make me feel better about him), and there's a very very low probability of the QT trying to deceive us, unlike 3 players here.

Whether or not he is actually evil, Zil has definitely seemed like a bit of a scapegoat and has been so dissociated from by others that I don't know how much his death will tell us. Plus he's seemed more innocent/genuine toDay (though that could just be the threat of being killed off).

You on the other hand are still extremely suspicious to me, and connected to everyone.


edit: x-ed with the Nog himself.

[Nogrod]

People seemed exhausted. And one can not blame them. Several days of continued pressure does tricks with human psyche.

As the people in the Quarantine had given such a good advice on old Sador Labadal the Day before, many thought it was a relief to let the responsibility lie on other shoulders than on their own. But other people were not happy with that, and stayed with their own suspicions – and so it was, that in the end, to no surprise for anyone who had listened to the discussions on earlier Days – that Old Halmir was called for.

“I’ve not fallen, or ill – but I do wonder if I’m in to my senses any more amidst this rule of evil. You are doing the Dark Lord’s bidding, I say. For Valar’s sake, at least take care that the House of Haleth isn’t going to die away. Húrin! Watch for my grand-grandchild! Give me your word!”

Húrin looked at the old man in pain.

“You know I do what I can lord Halmir. And young Brandir is as much my child as he is of your kin. I’ll watch after him, but…” Húrin laid his eyes down, not bearing to look at the old man in the face.

“I see. I know" Halmir answered warmly, like trying to soothe Húrin. It was a weird situation, like the one sentenced was forgiving the sentencer.

"Lacho calad! Drego morn!” Halmir yelled, turned on his heels and walked in, pushing Ragnir, who was ready to bring him in, away. “I can still walk with my own feet.”

Halmir clearly was no Infector of Morgoth – and seemed pretty healthy as well.


~*~


Dead, yes dead

Nogrod – “The Badger”, the Mod (dead on Night1)
Urwen – Glóredhel, healthy person (withered away in grief during Day2)


Quarantined

Galadriel55 – Andróg, the Cobbler (voted into QT on Day1)
Rikae – Haldir, formerly healthy person (infected by the shady Infectors on Night2)
Huinesoron – Hareth, an Infector (voted into QT on Day2)
Kitanna – Huor, the Ranger (infected in the woods by the Infectors on Night3)
Sally – Túrin, the Hunter (voted into QT on Day3)
Macalaure – Grithnir, healthy person (dragged into the QT by the Hunter on Day3)
Legate of Amon Lanc – Asgon, healthy person (infected sneakily on Night4)
Lhunardawen – Sador, an Infector (voted into QT on Day4)
Lalaith – Rían, healthy person (overrun and infected by the Infectors on Night5)
Inziladun – Halmir, healthy person (voted into QT on Day5)


Hanging around

Thinlómien
Loslote
Pitchwife
Kath
A Little Green
Boromir88
Brinniel
Eönwë
Rune Son of Bjarne
THE Ka
Shastanis Althreduin


It’s now Night 6


The Night is dark and full of terrors…

[Nogrod]

She hadn’t slept for several nights. How could she have? She was worried about the children trusted in her care. Naturally she couldn’t alone convince half the Villagers about little Túrin’s innocence and health when they voted for him to be quarantined. But she would be on the look-out during the Nights so that no ill befell on little Lalaith or Brandir. Whatever she would need to be up against.

To her surprise, just as she was keeping an eye on Brandir’s hut, the Morgoth Infectors came to her.

“What do you want from an old wife like me, in this pitch darkness? Aren’t you up for those better folks?”

The trio around her stayed silent but were closing in on her.

“You won’t get your will!” she yelled and attacked the closest one with the broom she had with her. She managed to give quite a blow to one of the attackers but was quickly overpowered.

In the morning the villagers found Túrin’s nurse, badly beaten and clearly very ill, lying on the steps to the Great Hall.


~*~


The Village felt suddenly pretty small. People looked at each other – and everyone, except maybe the children, knew what this meant. There were three of them who were causing all this mayhem, and there were only ten of them left.

They were standing in a circle in front of the Great Hall.

Húrin and Morwen stood side by side, grim but steadfast, keeping the children Lalaith and Brandir close by them.

On their left side there were Húrin’s kinswoman Aerin and her father Indor, watching the door in distress.

On their right stood the blind servant Ragnar whose pale eyes seemed to stare into emptiness, even if they moved to and fro every once in a while in unexpected ways.

Facing them were the three men; veteran of many wars Algund, the valiant Gethron, and the big and bold Forweg. All quiet and solemn.

Everyone was thinking of the same.

Three of us…


“Of the last eight people we’ve lost, only one was an Infector. We need to get our lines straight now” said Húrin quietly but with authority. “Let’s eat, and then talk.”


~*~


Dead, yes dead

Nogrod – “The Badger”, the Mod (dead on Night1)
Urwen – Glóredhel, healthy person (withered away in grief during Day2)


Quarantined

Galadriel55 – Andróg, the Cobbler (voted into QT on Day1)
Rikae – Haldir, healthy person (infected by the shady Infectors on Night2)
Huinesoron – Hareth, an Infector (voted into QT on Day2)
Kitanna – Huor, the Ranger (infected in the woods by the Infectors on Night3)
Sally – Túrin, the Hunter (voted into QT on Day3)
Macalaure – Grithnir, healthy person (dragged into the QT by the Hunter on Day3)
Legate of Amon Lanc – Asgon, healthy person (infected sneakily on Night4)
Lhunardawen – Sador, an Infector (voted into QT on Day4)
Lalaith – Rían, healthy person (overrun and infected by the Infectors on Night5)
Inziladun – Halmir, healthy person (voted into QT on Day5)
Pitchwife – Turin’s Nurse, healthy person (overcome and infected by the Infectors on Night6)


Hanging around

Thinlómien
Loslote
Kath
A Little Green
Boromir88
Brinniel
Eönwë
Rune Son of Bjarne
THE Ka
Shastanis Althreduin


It’s now Day 6


Let there be discussion on how to bring light into this darkness.


PS. Sorry again. My laptop's clock is not in accurate time and I once again estimated the time difference a bit wrong... I'll try my best every time.

[Thinlómien]

I like how the mod himself is telling us to get out [censored] together. :rolleyes::D

But yes, the numbers are getting more worriesome. I am extremely relieved the seer is still alive though, and so is the inncocent child. It could be worse.

That being said, obviously the Pitchwife kill should be looked at. Nobody much suspected him since the early Days, but it's the seer hints I'm interested in. The clock is ticking for the wolves too.

Again, my apologies to Zil to the dead thread. I am somewhat disspirited by his innocence. Why is it that every time I vote someone I think I have solid reasons to suspect, they turn innocent (Mac, Sally, and now Zil), and whenever I vote someone because I have a vague suspicious vibe (Gal55, Lhuna) they turn out to be guilty? Maybe I should just stop analysing things and stick to gut feelings from now on... :rolleyes:

[Loslote]

QT -> Rune
Kath -> Inzil
Greenie -> Inzil 2
Shasta -> THE Ka
Eönwë -> Rune 2
Boro -> Eönwë
Inzil -> Rune 3
Lommy -> Inzil 3
Lottie -> Rune 4
Brinn -> Inzil 4
Rune -> Inzil 5
Pitch -> Inzil 6
Ka -> Shasta

I generally feel good about Kath and Greenie, but I didn't like Lommy's or Brinn's votes, and I really didn't like Ka's vote. It felt a bit "well, that's that then, I don't even have to get my hands dirty, they're lynching an innocent all on their own!" to me. If any one of Ka, Rune, or Eonwe isn't a wolf, it's got to be Shasta, Boro, or Brinn - but I think there are a minimum of two wolves in that Ka/Rune/Eonwe threesome, and I really think we need to lynch one of them toDay.

[Boromir88]

May you find peace and healing Pitch through these hard times.

Ok, so I think it would be best to explain my oddness yesterday, because I feel like since Day 1 I could be jumped on and lynched in half a heart beat, which is I guess a normal feeling. That would not be good, but everyone deserves an explanation for me being mysterious yesterday.

Rewind to Day 4, I proposed a vote of Lhuna to the QT. That led to the lynching of a wolf. I couldn't remember if anyone else proposed Lhuna, or if it was just me, but I speculated yesterday that it must have meant the innocents in the QT trusted someone here.

I wanted to point the wolves to me and provide cover for the seer, but kind of put me in a bind because I suspected I was the one the QT trusted. So I picked an even more random proposed vote of Rune yesterday. And when the QT agreed it confirmed my feelings. I commented that it was fascinating, because mostly I was amused with being trusted. Got to thinking that a healthy minds don't trust me at all, but something happens when going into the QT that suddenly I was. What does that say about me? Fascinating and amusing.

But the reason for the mystery is I was trying to provide cover for the seer, but send as clear as a signal to the QT that I wasn't so they don't have to follow my vote.

I don't see any benefit to keep up that plan, it was kind of a 1-2 day try to provide cover and maybe get another wolf. In the end I'll be vindicated either in death or in victory. And it will be more beneficial to the community to know this. Maybe I laid it on too thick where the wolves didn't believe it or I have to re-orientate myself and rethink my feelings on others.

In general, I don't think we should sort of play this waiting where not much happens until the QT vote. Part of it is my own schedule, If I don't post at night I definitely won't be able to until 3-4 hours before the DL.

[Loslote]

Ok, so I think it would be best to explain my oddness yesterday, because I feel like since Day 1 I could be jumped on and lynched in half a heart beat, which is I guess a normal feeling. That would not be good, but everyone deserves an explanation for me being mysterious yesterday.

Rewind to Day 4, I proposed a vote of Lhuna to the QT. That led to the lynching of a wolf. I couldn't remember if anyone else proposed Lhuna, or if it was just me, but I speculated yesterday that it must have meant the innocents in the QT trusted someone here.

I wanted to point the wolves to me and provide cover for the seer, but kind of put me in a bind because I suspected I was the one the QT trusted. So I picked an even more random proposed vote of Rune yesterday. And when the QT agreed it confirmed my feelings. I commented that it was fascinating, because mostly I was amused with being trusted. Got to thinking that a healthy minds don't trust me at all, but something happens when going into the QT that suddenly I was. What does that say about me? Fascinating and amusing.

But the reason for the mystery is I was trying to provide cover for the seer, but send as clear as a signal to the QT that I wasn't so they don't have to follow my vote.

I don't see any benefit to keep up that plan, it was kind of a 1-2 day try to provide cover and maybe get another wolf. In the end I'll be vindicated either in death or in victory. And it will be more beneficial to the community to know this. Maybe I laid it on too thick where the wolves didn't believe it or I have to re-orientate myself and rethink my feelings on others.

In general, I don't think we should sort of play this waiting where not much happens until the QT vote. Part of it is my own schedule, If I don't post at night I definitely won't be able to until 3-4 hours before the DL.

Thanks for explaining - I wasn't sure what you were up to, haha! Even not knowing what you were doing, I didn't think your hinting had wolfish vibes at all, which is why I kind of backed off without actually saying so. I do feel good about this explanation. It feels genuine and like something an innocent Boro would absolutely try. Do you have a theory as to why the wolves didn't Night kill you?