WW: LXXXV - The Lost Philosophers of Maiar

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Agan

I seem to remember you quote a post by him and said it looked like the cobbler trying to draw the wolves' attention to something they might not have noticed, or was there something else too?

Yes, it was that one.

Originally Posted by Mac, to Skip

Rikae's computer is in repair, so we're sharing mine - I didn't get to yet. If you're still alive toMorrow, I will.

I want opinions on this one: is it a slip or am I paranoid? Mac seems to automatically assume he's alive the next Day.

[Macalaure]

I don't like Boro's seer analysis that much. Too much rests on the premise that Shasta was 100% obvious in his hints, therefore if something is only 99% obvious, it's not a hint.

Assuming Mänwe is a wolf, I'm wondering how the wolves would react now. Abandon hope and plan to continue with three, or try to deceive a large enough number of innocent (that would be only 2!) and win the game unless the ranger has some luck.

If Mänwe is not a wolf, it's easy. They would declare him likely dreamt of (maybe with a back door of "we can't be 100% sure, but the evidence is strong enough" or so) and vote for him.

The problem: most people I trust believe Mänwe is a wolf (Legate and Agan in particular), most people I don't trust have doubts (Cailín and Boro come to mind, Rikae, too, unfortunately).


ToDay it's 7-4.
We lynch Mänwe and he's a wolf, then toMorrow: 6-3
That means we have one wrong lynch left, i.e. you can lynch me toMorrow and we can still win. I find that comforting, because I don't really feel like defending myself against all that suspicion.

Right now, I think Boro and Skip are most interesting to look at. I hope I'll have the time.

[Cailín]

I don't know what to say. I just read yesterDay's discussion closely and that made me feel worse about Macalaure, slightly better about Skip, amused by Boromir and confused about A Little Green. Fairly awful about Wilwa (but I've been suspicious of Wilwarin since Day 2 so that's nothing new) and bad about Manwe as well.

Manwe will undoubtedly be lynched toDay - Aganzir and Legate already voted for him after all. I'll be back later but somewhat more distracted.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Rikae

Has anything happened between Boro, Mac, Greenie & Mänwe that would prevent them from being wolves together? Suspicions too hot, that sort of thing? When Mac went after Boro the other Day, there was little chance of lynching Boro as Mac well knew. I can't recall anything else at the moment.

Nothing that I can think of, but I doubt Greenie is a wolf.
Mac's early accusation of Boro based on his defense of Pitch would be conveniently wolf-on-wolf though. And if Mac or skip is a wolf, their little row yesterday is worth taking a look at. It seems it sprang out of nowhere and they did their best to interpret everything the other said in a bad light (especially skip who was all of a sudden suspicious of Mac whom no one else had really suspected), and it made me raise my eyebrows. The thought crossed my mind they had agreed to do some wolf-on-wolfing so that nobody would start wondering about Mac's still being alive.

Agan could easily have been a dreamed "ordo" and actual cobbler at that point.

No I couldn't - Shasta would have seen me as the cobbler, not ordo.

Originally Posted by A Little Green

I want opinions on this one: is it a slip or am I paranoid? Mac seems to automatically assume he's alive the next Day.

Could be either. I tend to assume I don't die overnight even when I'm not a wolf.

Originally Posted by Macalaure

Assuming Mänwe is a wolf, I'm wondering how the wolves would react now. Abandon hope and plan to continue with three, or try to deceive a large enough number of innocent (that would be only 2!) and win the game unless the ranger has some luck.

Sacrifice him. Sacrifice Boro tomorrow. Let the remaining two try to sneak into the victory. (This is assuming Boro is a wolf. He will undoubtedly try to be serious and convince us of his innocent intentions now though.)

Oh and speaking of Boro. He isn't stupid, he knows he couldn't have fooled the wolves for long because he simply couldn't drop the right names in his posts. That's why I stopped playing the cobbler after day 1. I was hoping an impatient wolf would try to hint at me... however now that I think of it, the people I remember discussing the cobbler issue the most with were Pitch, Mac and skip. Now I wonder.

i.e. you can lynch me toMorrow and we can still win. I find that comforting, because I don't really feel like defending myself against all that suspicion.

What exactly do you think makes you more suspicious than say Boro?

[skip spence]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

Oh and speaking of Boro. He isn't stupid, he knows he couldn't have fooled the wolves for long because he simply couldn't drop the right names in his posts. That's why I stopped playing the cobbler after day 1. I was hoping an impatient wolf would try to hint at me...

This point I don't quite understand. Could you explain?

[Nessa Telrunya]

So there goes Legate being a wolf.

Mänwe is possible as a suspect, and my likely vote toDay. It's not very likely that everyone will change their minds, and if no one retracts, it would be difficult to lynch any other suspects without another bandwagon.

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Nessa

Mänwe is possible as a suspect, and my likely vote toDay. It's not very likely that everyone will change their minds, and if no one retracts, it would be difficult to lynch any other suspects without another bandwagon.

Erm, what? It's difficult to lynch anyone without a bandwagon, I'd say.

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

I don't like Boro's seer analysis that much. Too much rests on the premise that Shasta was 100% obvious in his hints, therefore if something is only 99% obvious, it's not a hint.

That's because I know how a Shasta-seer operates. He will always leave clues, but they would not be confusing. That is, he would not say "I feel good about Mac, but I hope I don't regret giving him a pass for sounding logical" if he had already dreamed you were innocent. If he dreamed you innocent, he would say something along the lines of how he defended Agan the entire game, or how he switched from heavily suspecting Legate, to "re-reading" him and finding him innocent.

Granted, the other time Shasta was the seer, as Agan said I was the cobbler. But nothing I said about how Shasta-seer would act was false. I just may have distorted and confused what he actually said to suit my cobbler-aims in that game.

So, now I wonder why all the hub-bub about he dreamed Manwe a wolf. I agree with Legate he wouldn't be so obvious as to move a dreamed wolf on red-alert. However, the situation yesterday was pretty dire, not must-lynch wolf mode, but with there still being 4 wolves, which means they would still get 2 kills. If he had dreamed of a Manwe wolf, I would think a Shasta-seer would convey this more clearly and finally put an end to the wolves double kills.

Instead, I think Shasta was acting more out of annoyance from starting to be suspected and in general how the game has gone. He wouldn't have sought to confuse, but I don't see why we should assume he dreamed of a wolf-Manwe simply because he started suspecting him.

[Aganzir]

I would like to remind each innocent in this village that we need to vote together today. Despite Boro's behaviour Mänwe is the best bet because as Legate said, it's better to lose because of misinterpreting the seer's last words than because of ignoring them.

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

I would like to remind each innocent in this village that we need to vote together today. Despite Boro's behaviour Mänwe is the best bet because as Legate said, it's better to lose because of misinterpreting the seer's last words than because of ignoring them.

In either case we lose, I would take winning because of interpretting the seer correctly thank you very much.

Let's look how he treated Legate, before dreaming of him.

Post 234. He starts suspecting Legate for flip flopping all over the place about Inzil and other reasons.

Post 252. He feels "moderately bad" about Inzil and Lottie. You could call this his orange-yellow zone, yes? He feels "no-nonsense bad" about Legate.

Post 274. he votes Lottie but says of Legate.

And in any case there doesn't seem to be as much support for a Legate lynch as I'd hoped for, so.

I remind you he has not dreamed of Legate at this point, but clearly was suspecting him, and even said he'd prefer voting Legate over Lottie. However, since there was no support for Legate he didn't. Then the next day, he comes in and suddenly switches to Legate looks innocent after "re-reading him."

So, he dreamed of Legate, yes? Do you not see the same exact pattern with how Shasta reacted to Manwe yesterday? Seriously, do you not see it, or are you just choosing to ignore it and hide behind "well we must listen to the seer even if we are misinterpretting him and lose."

Post 493. Reads into Manwe and finds him suspicious, saying he may be in the "red" category.

Post 502. States he really wants to vote for Manwe.

Come on Agan, you're better at analyzing and looking at the finer details than this. Shasta followed the same pattern with Manwe, as he did with Legate, before he had dreamed and known about Legate. So, why are you pleading for the innocents to follow the seers words even if we're misinterpretting it? Sure you wanted to wake the sleeping bear, I feel life in me again.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

Come on Agan, you're better at analyzing and looking at the finer details than this. Shasta followed the same pattern with Manwe, as he did with Legate, before he had dreamed and known about Legate. So, why are you pleading for the innocents to follow the seers words even if we're misinterpretting it? Sure you wanted to wake the sleeping bear, I feel life in me again.

I think it would be hilarious if we lynched someone else than Mänwe and the wolves won. Shasta would be so upset about being beaten with his own strategy... as you well know, Boro!

If he hadn't dreamed of Mänwe, he would have found another way to suspect him than saying he's the first to enter his red category. Simple as that. End of discussion (on my part at least).

edit: xed wit Mänwe.

With my post and with Shasta's eye falling on me as it did and then his subsequent death

Was that a confession?

[Mänwe]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

I would like to remind each innocent in this village that we need to vote together today. Despite Boro's behaviour Mänwe is the best bet because as Legate said, it's better to lose because of misinterpreting the seer's last words than because of ignoring them.

I would like to remind each innocent in this village to come to their own conclusions. I would rather be lynched because you actually consider me innocent than lynched because I am "the best bet" or you were encouraged to "vote together" or I am to be "the most likely to be lynched therefore to vote anyone else would be a 'throwaway vote'" . Because I sincerely despise that term.

~~

Rikae, no it was not a joke and I did not offer it as an explanation.

~~

I might have voiced a misgiving or two had I thought it would be heard

Suffice to say, my guilt is being based upon interpretation of posts at its hardest. With my post and with Shasta's eye falling on me as it did and then his subsequent death, I have fallen most foul of the adage, "in the wrong place at the wrong time". So if folk wish to incriminate me because of it, so be it. But don't say I didn't warn you in the clearest of ways for you doom the others and hand victory to Melkor and his minions (who I will add have played very well, and are most deserving of a place at his side- the Deciever has been given a run for his money!).

Edit: I should listen to Boro and Cailins points since the start of the day, worth noting.

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Boro

Granted, the other time Shasta was the seer, as Agan said I was the cobbler. But nothing I said about how Shasta-seer would act was false. I just may have distorted and confused what he actually said to suit my cobbler-aims in that game.

Hmm Boro, you do realise that the only time Shasta was the seer before this, he was lynched on Day 1 so you couldn't really claim you know how a Shasta-seer leaves his hints.

Oh, and might as well:

++ Manwe

[Cailín]

If Manwe is not a wolf, we are all doomed.

Spreading the votes in this situation, especially considering the fact that (almost) Known Innocents Aganzir and Legate have chosen this path, could be fatal to us all.

++ Manwe

I am not convinced Boromir88 is a wolf (his behaviour was odd, but could be frustrated ordo and I agree, as must be obvious, with what he says today). I am also not convinced (why is anyone else?) that Nessa is innocent. I am not even fully convinced that Manwe is a wolf. Vamos a ver...