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Old 01-12-2011, 10:03 AM   #11
Macalaure
Fading Fëanorion
 
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Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: into the flood again
Posts: 2,911
Macalaure is a guest of Elrond in Rivendell.Macalaure is a guest of Elrond in Rivendell.Macalaure is a guest of Elrond in Rivendell.
I don't like Boro's seer analysis that much. Too much rests on the premise that Shasta was 100% obvious in his hints, therefore if something is only 99% obvious, it's not a hint.

Assuming Mänwe is a wolf, I'm wondering how the wolves would react now. Abandon hope and plan to continue with three, or try to deceive a large enough number of innocent (that would be only 2!) and win the game unless the ranger has some luck.

If Mänwe is not a wolf, it's easy. They would declare him likely dreamt of (maybe with a back door of "we can't be 100% sure, but the evidence is strong enough" or so) and vote for him.

The problem: most people I trust believe Mänwe is a wolf (Legate and Agan in particular), most people I don't trust have doubts (Cailín and Boro come to mind, Rikae, too, unfortunately).


ToDay it's 7-4.
We lynch Mänwe and he's a wolf, then toMorrow: 6-3
That means we have one wrong lynch left, i.e. you can lynch me toMorrow and we can still win. I find that comforting, because I don't really feel like defending myself against all that suspicion.

Right now, I think Boro and Skip are most interesting to look at. I hope I'll have the time.
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