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Old 02-28-2008, 01:08 PM   #1
THE Ka
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Nogrod
So please McCaber at last do what you have promised all the time and talk - or convince me that that's only your tactics to make boots of us at Nights with not talking your mouth.
Third that agreement. McCaber I don't suspect directly considering the events of yesterDay, but I do think it would clear his name if he gave more of an explanation and overall opinion on his views, or at least break himself away from Mac's suspicion that he was tied to yesterDay as well.

I suspect Mac far more than McCab, but I really wish he'd speak up so that we'd stop wringing his neck then patting him on the head in confusion.

++Macalaure

(Sorry if this is after deadline, if it is feel free not to count it, since it probably has no weight anyway...).

~ Ka
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Old 02-28-2008, 02:13 PM   #2
Aganzir
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Leaf Day 2

The beggars weren't terrified by sally's fate at all, quite the contrary – among the other nasty things Mac did today, he even realised that there was also a positive side to sally's death. Now, he thought, he and Menel could finally play snow war for hours on end without getting a cold. This was enough to upset his parents, but only when Mac started teasing his mother did he get a beating.

”Remember that I'm one of those parents who believe also in the efficacy of capital punishment!” exclaimed Mithalwen to her crying son, a large wooden spoon in her hand.

Mith, aren't you being a bit too strict, strict and strict with him?” asked Nogrod. ”Bear in mind that he's but a boy, boy and boy.”

”Why are you repeating everything thrice?” asked Durelin.

”I want to make sure everyone understands what I say. Sometimes it takes some repeating.”

”Ah.”

”I'm definitely not too strict, Nogrod. That boy speaks so nastily that he deserves a good beating every now and then.”

”Did you hear that?” cried Boro. ”No ordinary mother constantly beats her own child. I'm saying Mith is a wolf!”

”I think Mith is right. And if the wolves were good, they'd kill Mac for speaking like that to his mother,” said McCaber kindly.

”But they kill silent people instead... Like the poor sally,” sighed Nerwen.

”Why sally? Why not McCaber or Aganzir, for example? They didn't speak much either,” asked Mith.

”I wonder indeed,” said Death.

”Did you hear that?” cried Boro. ”She's trying to confuse us. I'm saying Mith is a wolf!”

”I actually quite agree with you, Boro,” said Rikae. ”She's clearly lying.”

”I never tell any blatant lies... Well... Except...” Mith paused, looking guilty.

”Except what?” inquired Ka.

”Well... I think I've sometimes said 'What a beautiful baby' without really meaning it... But that's all.”

”Like when Menel was born? (I'm saying Mith is a wolf!)”

”Eh... Well... Maybe we shall not speak about that now, darling, shall we?”

The argument was interrupted by a loud wailing sound.

”Ai! Ai!” cried Lommy, ”my eyes!”

”What is it?” asked Greenie.

Volo looks so foul it hurts! Take him away! I can't bear to look at him!”

”Hey... Do you really think I'm that ugly?” asked Volo in a confused voice.

”Bunnies... May I remind you that you have work to do and time is flying?” said Death.

”Oh, we completely forgot,” said the beggars, ”this is so much fun.”

”What shall we do to the lynchee today?” asked Menel.

”We need some more drinking water anyway,” said Durelin. ”What about breaking a hole in the ice of that river in the forest?”

”Sounds nice. We could drown someone there,” said Greenie.

**

The beggars left the house with picks and shovels. It took them some time to find the frozen river and shovel the snow away, and some more time to break a hole in the ice. Eventually they saw the black water, calm and threatening.

”Are there any volunteers?” asked Rikae.

”Well, if it was up to me and Boro, I think you should take me rather than him...” said McCaber.

”What?” asked the beggars who stood a little farther from the river.

”He said he volunteers!” shouted Rikae.

”Let's try if he is a real submarine!” cried Lommy.

The mob came and grabbed McCaber by his yellow coat sleeve. While Rikae and Durelin held his legs, Volo pushed his head under the water and held it there until no more bubbles came up.

McCaber had drowned, but his body was still that of a little boy's, not a wolf's. As the beggars stood watching, the last rays of the sun vanished below the mountains. They rushed back, towards the twinkling lights of the house.

**

Alive:
Nogrod the Agreeable, the leader of the beggars
his wife, Nerwen
elderly couple; Rikae the Kind
and Durelin
Boromir88 the Silent One, an ex-pickpocket
his wife, Mithalwen the Perpetually Sane and Serene
their children Macalaure the Guileless
and Meneltarmacil
Volo, a young widowed man
THE Ka, a blind old woman
orphaned little Thinlómien
and her little sister A Little Green

Dead:
Tom Bombadil (ranger) - killed on Night 1
Goldberry (seer) - killed on Night 1
The Barrow-wight (hunter) - killed on Night 1
Gwathagor, the child of Nogrod and Nerwen (ordo) - used as a battering ram on Day 1
Sally the Insufferable, a slightly mad crippled woman (ordo) - skinned, scalped and made to clothes on Night 2
the Right Honourable McCaber, Volo's child (ordo) - drowned in the Withywindle on Day 2

It is now Night 3. Wolves may kill. No posting here.

And sorry Ka, but your vote doesn't count.
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Old 02-29-2008, 01:00 PM   #3
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Leaf Night 3

That night, it was snowing again. The wolves were sitting in the passage and chatting merrily. Death was studying a map of the Old Forest and the Shire.

”Would you guys mind getting me some ink tonight? A piece of charcoal is definitely not the best choice of medium for making accurate plans.”

”Sure,” said a wolf.

”That is no problem,” said another. ”Who, do you think, could provide us with the brightest colour?”

”I think I have an idea. But first I must ask you something... I have always wondered why we can only kill one person a night,” said the third.

”Me too. I mean, they are all asleep and we could easily kill them without making too much noise. Why not take them all at once? Why do we have to wait and risk getting ourselves killed by them first?”

Death seemed to be almost offended by the question. She lifted her eyes from the map. ”It is art! It takes time to make a masterpiece. You can't make several of them in just one night. I thought that was obvious.”

”Yes, now that I think it, it makes sense. Thank you.”

”Poor cubs – I know all too well how bloodlust feels. But don't worry. If everything goes as I have planned, you will soon have a plenty of kills for every night...”

**

”She wanted bright red ink.”

”Do you know how to turn blood bright red?”

”It takes a carbon monoxide poisoning.”

”Indeed.”

The wolves crept into the living room and took some charcoal from the fireplace.

”It always makes me feel so practical when I do something like this... We need to get proper-coloured ink instead of charcoal, and the easiest way to get it is to burn charcoal. This is so handy!”

They took the pieces to Tom and Goldberry's room and lit them. They returned to the living room, picked a sleeper and carried her away. She woke up in the passage. They bound and gagged her, pushed her into the room and closed the door. When they opened it again after a while, THE Ka was unconscious.

One wolf took a knife and another a basin while the third held her body. The wolf with the knife slit her throat open gravely. Bright red blood poured into the basin.

”What a beautiful hue!” exclaimed the third wolf delightedly.

**

The beggars were naturally very upset to discover Ka's limp and drained body and some bottled blood, but there was also another concern: it had snowed so much in the night that it was practically impossible to get about the house. Therefore Boro promised to go and shovel snow. When the yard was more or less passable again, he and Volo decided to go and see if McCaber's body was still where they had left it and if anything could be done for it anymore.

On their way there, a tree bumped into Boro.

”Oh my,” the tree said in a squeaky and smug voice, ”don't you have any manners? See, I hurt myself!” He pointed at the withered leaf that had fell on the snow.

”Sorry,” said Boro, ”but it was definitely not my fault. You came from the behind and were walking too fast for the weather conditions. You should have been more careful.”

”How very dare you?” asked the tree furiously, ”it was your fault indeed! I'll tell Old Man Willow what you did and he'll kill you!”

”Go away and stop bothering us,” said Boro.

”Well, well!” Volo said. ”These trees do shift.”

**

It took them a while to find McCaber's snow-covered body. They had almost dug it out when the tree returned.

”Old Man Willow tells you to come. Immediately!”

”Nah, I don't think so,” said Boro. ”I have a lovely wife and two sweet children, and wolf-hunting to do. I cannot possibly come.”

But even he couldn't resist the power of the Willow-man whose song and thought ran through the woods on both sides of the river. He tried to make it back to the house, but the trees barred his way. Roots and branches emerged from nowhere and took hold on him. It was the last time Boro was seen.

**

Alive:
Nogrod the Agreeable, the leader of the beggars
his wife, Nerwen
elderly couple; Rikae the Kind
and Durelin
Mithalwen the Perpetually Sane and Serene, Boro's widow
their children Macalaure the Guileless
and Meneltarmacil
Volo, a young widowed man
orphaned little Thinlómien
and her little sister A Little Green

Dead:
Tom Bombadil (ranger) - killed on Night 1
Goldberry (seer) - killed on Night 1
The Barrow-wight (hunter) - killed on Night 1
Gwathagor, the child of Nogrod and Nerwen (ordo) - used as a battering ram on Day 1
Sally the Insufferable, a slightly mad crippled woman (ordo) - skinned, scalped and made to clothes on Night 2
the Right Honourable McCaber, Volo's child (ordo) - drowned in the Withywindle on Day 2
THE Ka, a blind old woman (ordo) - poisoned with carbon monoxide & throat slit open on Night 3
Boromir88 the Silent One, Mith's husband, Mac & Menel's father, an ex-pickpocket (ordo) - accused unjustly and carried away against his will by annoying trees at the beginning of Day 3

It is now Day 3. Wolves stop PMing. Start talking.

Boro had to pull out because of work things.
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Old 02-29-2008, 01:37 PM   #4
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We at least I find black very becoming....

Given his recent behaviour towards me I find my grief more controllable than it might have been. I knew him so well and he clearly didn't know me at all no matter what he thought.

So I have the choice of being a merry widow of taking advantage of the date and proposing to a replacement. However there is not exactly a glut of eligible bachelors around (story of my life ) so ..... better find the wolves so I can survive to go to a happier hunting ground... Not easy - we are an extra innocent down and the only person of whose innocence I was confident is gone.
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Old 02-29-2008, 01:37 PM   #5
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yesterDay's votes

1. Menel for McCaber.
He didn't say much all day. The vote itself is neither suspicious nor innocent.

2. Nerwen for Volo.
Her case was bad, but then, she didn't have any better, as far as I can see. Neither suspicious nor innocent.

3. Boro for meee!
Known innocentish vote.

4. Durelin for meee!
Maybe others need to judge whether her reasoning was good or not. To me, it's bad, but I feel like I'm biased. The vote placement isn't worrying, I think.

5. Rikae for Boro.
Follows her earlier suspicion. Nothing alarming here, especially since later she urged others to follow her vote.

6. Mith for Rikae.
This vote confuses me. I don't know why Mith plays so nervously and alarmed. I don't think it's wolvish, though.

7. McCaber for Volo.
Known innocentish vote.

8. Lily for meee!
Urged me twice to explain myself, and when I did, she didn't bother to say a thing about it and just voted me. Her last words sound very wolvish to me:
Quote:
And if you start accusing me of joining a bandwaggon then I suggest you go and reread my posts from toDay. (Sorry - just had to say that.)
It not only sounds wolvish, it also makes no sense to refer to her earlier suspicion, because it relied on my explanation and was therefore outdated. Unless she explains herself very convincingly, she's my top suspect for toDay.

9. Volo for McCaber.
Voted for the only one he saw as an alternative to himself and me. He was against trying to lynch Menel, which is something to keep in mind should we prove one of them guilty at some later point.

10. Lommy for Volo.
I think she overdid her "Who will I voooooooooooooooote?" yesterDay. She's another one who claimed to be interested in voting Menel but didn't do it because there was no support (at the time she said it, Menel could have gotten four votes: hers, Volo's, Nogrod's and mine). The way Volo declined to go this way was less suspicious (I doubt you can do it) opposed to Lommy's "No Menel-support? Oh, well..."

11. Nogrod for McCaber.
Wise choice at the time, I think. He was sufficiently suspicious of me before to make a plausible (objectively) case and vote for me. He didn't. I know Wolfgrod could pull this off, but for now I'll consider him likely innocent.

12. Me for McCaber.
Definitely not my first choice, but preferable to my own passing away.


And now I need to go and think about the deaths of the night.
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Old 02-29-2008, 02:09 PM   #6
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Down two in one Night...not pretty... Why is it the village is never lucky enough to have a wolf drop out?

Well, I must apologize right off the bat because I will be gone most of the day tomorrow (Saturday) visiting my grandmother, so I will have to vote before I go to bed tonight...unless I get up a little eary. Don't count on it. But I will at least be staying up fairly late!

First up, a random thought... I suggest that perhaps one of Rikae and Mac is a wolf. At different times they each seem to be trying to buddy-up to the other, which would obviously give the wolf of the pair a pretty strong ally. I hope that I'm not playing dirty here...I really don't mean to...it's just a game, but...these things do come into play. (I made Cailin a wolf and Eomer an innocent in the game I modded and apparently Eomer had promised that he was not to ever vote for her...not that something like that necessarily applies at all!) *hides behind a conveniently placed couch*

I need to go back and look at Rikae again...she's my first gut suspicion and I probably shouldn't have pushed her aside quite so much...

On the other hand, I agree with both her and Mac on A Little Green (except that their great suspicion seems to be completely based on the placement of her vote, which does not make sense to me...yes, factoring that in makes sense, but...). And I agree with Mac about Lommy. She's been playing up the uncertainty and a sort of "I'm too nice to want to kill anyone!" thing...at least I've been getting that sort of vibe from her. We all know she's not really just a squishy penguin through and through...

Both Lommy's and Nerwen's votes for Volo were soooo easy. Nerwen's especially...early on, when everyone was looking at Volo. She seems to have been going with the flow as much as possible. Of course, I have no idea what Volo is up to, so I don't know if I have much to go on. I like to give Volo the benefit of the doubt when he's all over the place, but...meh.

Edit: crossed with Mith
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Old 02-29-2008, 02:16 PM   #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Durelin View Post
. We all know she's not really just a squishy penguin through and through...
She does have a ping-wing avatar thought ..they are fairly squishy penguins.... sorry flippant....
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Old 02-29-2008, 02:33 PM   #8
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I didn't find much that can be deduced from McCaber or Ka. She seems to be another one killed for not leaving trails. This seems to be the plan of the wolves, to make our loud and wordy ones argue in circles and lynch each other.


Bordomir:

Boro made cases of Mith, Rikae. However, even knowing that they come from an innocent mind, I don't find his arguments convincing. He also mentions Menel as suspicious.

I don't find Mith's behaviour towards Boro the last two days alarming. Nogrod's behaviour could be interpreted as a more subtle buddying-up, but I won't make that connection - yet.

Rikae's and Volo's suspicion of Boro looks sincere.

Lommy flipflops about him like only Lommy can. It doesn't leave me with a good feeling. Durelin is also overly indecisive on Boro.
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Old 02-29-2008, 05:50 PM   #9
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With an innocent McCaber, I think we may have a good idea of where to start looking for Wolves.

I think one may have hid in the Caberwagon on Day 1 while another voted for Gwath, and the third one voted for someone else.

I also think there's a wolf in the latest Caberwagon, the one that lynched him.

As for the possibilities, I see a few:
Volo voted for Gwath and McCaber, not counting his Ka-vote. Staying in bandwagons is hardly ever good. Plus, all his votes were for known innocents, again not a good sign.

Nogrod votes for McCaber both times. Good choice to cover one's tracks, claim that you voted for him before, therefore you must legitimately suspect the latest bandwagonee.

And then there's Mac... Oh, what am I to do with you? Same bandwagons as Volo, and I've suspected him before. Well, I doubt he and Volo are both wolves, as voting the same bandwagons twice in a row would be dangerous.
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Old 02-29-2008, 05:24 PM   #10
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One thing that still bothers me even if Lommy tried to downplay it with her quite believable personal defence of it is the number of people who tried to "justify" their vote on Day1 with a phrase "I don't wish to see Boro die". Even if it's understandable the actual number of people using it is just plain ridiculous. Now as Boro is actually away and proven innocent this list kind of gets a new and a bit weightier meaning as the wolves knew he was innocent! There were so many people making the phrase that not all of them probably are innocents as it would fit a wolf so well to join that crowd...

Of those still alive there are Mith, Lommy, Mac and Volo involved there.

---

Those alive who took part in the Gwath-wagon (there probably is at least one wolf there - possibly two as it was so neat for them to hide looking at the situation): Greenie, Rikae, Mith, Volo, Mac

---

Crossing the two tables leads to:

Lommy 1 hit (saying let's not kill Boro)
Greenie 1 hit (not saying let's not kill Boro but voting Gwath)
Rikae 1 hit (not saying let's not kill Boro but voting Gwath)
Mith 2 hits
Mac 2 hits
Volo 2 hits

---

This is getting to look like work indeed...

I'll take a break and come back before I go to sleep.
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Old 02-29-2008, 06:49 PM   #11
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Nerwenalysis...

DAY1

On her first post she quotes a lengthy part of my post and says:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nerwen
glad to see everyone loking on the bright side– of course that's only to be expected of my husband.
Looking like trying to make friends with a role-husband... could be just first-post in-character thing as well.

Then says:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nerwen
I'm a bit worried about why everyone is going after the poor orphan Lommy. It wasn't nice of her to pick on my son, but children will be children. I really think it was just a joke.
After that she notifies Mac's point about Lommy's self-evidenting reasoning saying:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nerwen
Well, it's possible...
I can't say anymore now... working my fingers to the bone,I am, and does anyone care? *goes off muttering*

Then she comes back with her analysis on people... she analyses:

- Lommy (looks perfectly innocent however says she doesn't look too good)
- Mac (seems rather jumpy to her and had a strained argument but might as well be trying to get reactions like the last time)
- Menel (she borrows the suspicions of others but points out Menel tries to separate himself from Boro's thoughts)
-The Ka ("Is apparently trying to win a prize for saying the least in the most words. A possible "safe" wolf-tactic?") - a known innocent.
- Durelin ("Durelin I've never played before")
- Sally (says things which sound "terribly wolvish but the thing is she always does") - a known innocent
- Gwath (only early banter but then a point to Boro) - a known innocent

Then she goes against Rikae with her suspicion of that point as Gwath was seen going to defend Sally and Dury and gives another interpretation of the situation ("but you could also see it as Gwath just trying to be helpful and offer an alternative explanation. As it stands, I find that more likely.")

- McCaber ("he's basically doing the same thing as Gwath– except for suspecting one person") - a known innocent

Then she says she hasn't any time for more. Points we should hear from Greenie and Mith (who hadn't posted at that time). Says:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nerwen
I'm getting much the same nasty "there's something going on but I don't know what" feeling as in the last village.
Says loves Rikae for her post where Rikae says she tends to suspect her.

She does not say anything about Nogrod, Boro and Volo and she leaves Rikae outside her analysis even if she refers to her a few times but not with any analysis.


DAY2

Regrets her non-vote, promises to look at Sally more closely, says there were some peculiar things around the deadline.

Makes a Sallyanalysis ending it with:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nerwen
I'd say she was picked as a safe kill– except that she's said things that would have made her an easy lynch toDay. She was also under suspicion because of the perceived connection between her and Durelin. YesterDay most people were taking the line, "Oh well, that's Sally– who knows?" –but surely it would have been easy for the wolves to turn that around.
Reminds people not to overlook Volo because of his vote on Day1.

Comes back with a larger analysis.
Says: "Rikae, Lommy and Mac seem okay to me, as of the time of posting."
- The Ka ("literally gave me a headache." + "So far, well and good– but then it turns into a rather creepy description of her preferred wolfing tactics... I don’t know what to make of her.") - a known innocent
- Durelin ("likewise.")
- Menel ("seems to have fallen off the radar, and after yesterDay I think he should be on it.")
- Boro and Nogrod ("seem slippery– and both of them certainly played a part in getting Gwath killed... Also Boro's suspicions of Mithalwen today strike me as quite genuine.") - Boro a known innocent
All that "led her to ":
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nerwen
Mith– her reasons for voting Gwath look rather bad. Half of her posts toDay sound vaguely sinister, the other half just vague. (Btw, what is the count now of people using the “If I were a wolf I’d do X, and I’m doing Y, so I can’t be a wolf” argument?)

McCaber– Another slippery one, another one who helped start the Gwath bandwagon, another one who voted in an “I’m not really doing this” kind of way. The combination of all three looks nasty.

Volo. Gave a weird vote, giving a strong impression that he didn’t care who got lynched, and was perhaps trying to vote “informal”. ToDay (#184) he gives an “explanation” that doesn’t help at all
which was added with Volo's quote where he said it would be better to look after people getting after his vote than his vote itself, ending with a comment: "I mean– WHAT?"

Doesn't mention Greenie.

Votes Volo.
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Last edited by Nogrod; 02-29-2008 at 07:04 PM. Reason: took out Nerwen from the list of whom Nerwen didn't say anything about... naturally she didn't... ;)
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Old 02-29-2008, 07:15 PM   #12
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Well, Nogrod, that is indeed a revealing analysis.

Of, course, this praise is brought to you by a wolf trying to suck up to the guy who plans to lynch him*, but still, I can see what that means. Anyone who casts that much suspicion on known innocents is worth looking at.

Also, note the way she "suspects" Mac early on:

Quote:
Yes, but let's not allow that to get twisted into, "well, hey, it doesn't matter who we lynch". I suspect the wolves may try that.
Notice that this is not phrased as a suspicion! It's more of a "Stop behaving like a wolf!" warning. I've known wolves to caution their fellow pack members this way before.

The no-vote on Day 1 is interesting in light of the pattern I mentioned earlier, as it definitely gets her out of the bandwagons.

Also, this would suggest that Nogrod be taken off my suspicious list for suggesting her. However I'm not doing that unless Nerwen is found guilty.
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Old 02-29-2008, 07:15 PM   #13
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Well, to tell you the truth, I'm beginning to lose faith in the power of analysis. Still, I'm sleep-deprived at the moment, so I may be able to muster the energy to be a little more analytical tomorrow (toDay).
At any rate, if I were to listen to the nagging "gut feelings" Ive been having, I would say that I have an inexplicable sense that Lommy and Durelin are somehow laughing behind their posts. I've been uneasy about Lommy all along, but without really any concrete reasons. I will say that I don't like her "almost 100% certainty" one bit... primarily because she herself belongs on the list of experienced, loud and helpful players if anyone does, and by highlighting the others she manages to sidestep the spotlight.
I also don't trust Mac... mark my words. I'm not sure he's a wolf, but I don't have the certainty he's an ordo that I've felt before, either. Just wanted to make that clear... I have been trying very hard to pin him down since the game began, but I keep thinking myself in circles.

EDIT: X'd with Menel, obviously.
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Old 02-29-2008, 07:23 PM   #14
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Hi, all. Well, it seems my instincts are way off, because I was starting to have a bad feeling about the departed Boro... and I had McCaber down as a likely wolf.

Now, about my vote for Volo that Durelin, Mac and Nogrod don't like– As I explained, I had to vote early, so I went with someone who appeared suspicious to me at the time, rather than vote at random. It really is that simple.

Well, his posts after that look bad– immediately putting the Ka and me on his suspicion list because we suspected him! However, we now know that whatever his Day One vote was about, it wasn't to save McCaber– and I do think Rikae has a point with this:

Quote:
Originally Posted by Rikae View Post
I'm afraid we're making the same mistake as yesterday, if we lynch Volo -- lynching the erratic one who is actually too uncautious for a wolf.
This is something I've been worried about all along. On the first Day everyone was saying that the lack of gifteds would make it easier to spot wolves– well, yes, but it could also make people more willing to lynch "eccentric" players. On the other hand, Volo is experienced– could he really not see that he was acting in a way to make people suspect him? But then, surely he'd be more careful as a wolf? I'm not sure what to think about him right now.

One person who is starting to worry me is Durelin. I've overlooked her so far, but she's increasingly giving me a "creepy" feeling. I need to look at her some more. I still don't like the look of Mithalwen... other than that I've got no idea. What I can't see is signs that people are working together.

I'll re-read everything and hopefully be more helpful in my next post.

EDIT: X'd with Nogrod, Menel, Rikae.
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Old 02-29-2008, 07:41 PM   #15
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What do I / we learn about my "Nerwenalysis"?

It seems to hold that she is really careful and tends to suspect / vote people others have suspected. That would be an easy way for a wolf.

On Day1 she seems to be the most agreeable with me but on Day 2 she paints myself and Boro a bit more suspicious saying I was one taking part of getting Gwath killed - with Boro - in which she is again following the common talk at the time.

Doesn't mention Volo on Day1 but jumps on him as much as to vote him on Day 2 because of his vote and the way he defended it. And she wasn't the first one to point that out. Voted for him early enough.

She puts Mac and Lommy on Day 1 to the same category of a roundabout "yes and no" and on Day 2 she seems to declare them innocents...

She kind of banters with Rikae on Day1 (even if to prove a point in the first instance) and on Day2 she claims she is innocentish...

Dury only gets a "never played with her before" or "likewise"?

Greenie never appears on her lists...


So looking at Nerwen kind of makes me uneasy. She's too careful to my taste and trailing the suspicions others have made as I know she can make cases herself. She has talked about busy scheduals and I'm quite ready to believe in that sort of thing but somehow she looks a bit too careful.

If that's enough to lynch her...?

Well she at least moves up a noch upwards on my suspicion-list...

EDIT: just saw the latest posts and need to think again...
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Old 02-29-2008, 01:46 PM   #16
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At the moment, my mind is a mess, but I'll try to make some sense of it all and unfortunately you are doomed to read it...

I'm not actually surprised to see THE Ka go but there's something odd in her death. I dare to claim we have sporty wolves: with once again messing up the deadline THE Ka placed herself in a situation where she would have been relatively possibly been removed from the game. So, in a way, the wolves did us a favour by killing her (now that sounds quite horrible, sorry Ka ) by using their kill on someone who had bigger chance than the rest of us to be removed from the game as an extra innocent casuality, if you understand what I mean. But I'm not claiming this is the reason why the wolves killed her... I need to have a look at her posts.

I'm so sorry to see Boro go for out-of-game reasons. Well, at least I need not wonder about the contradictory signals he gave out anymore and my big project is reduced by a quarter.

Big project? As you probably remember, I was at the edge of anguish with the four experienced loudmouths - Mac, Rikae, Nog and Boro. I made the decision that I shall analyse all of them, if I'm still alive on this Day. And I'm going to keep this promise to myself. It only remains to be see when do I have time for that.

I'm almost 100% not all of Nog, Rikae and Mac are innocent. It just would not make sense, there's too much contradiction in the air. I think one or possibly two of them is/are wolf/wolves. Looking at the extremely fishy out-of-nowhere last-minute lynch yesterDay, I can not believe both Mac and Nog are innocent. They just can't be. I won't ramble more right now, but you can be sure I'll be back with some thoughts on yesterDay's voting with which there's something seriously wrong, I think, and to elaborate a bit more on this.

My shot-in-the-dark initial suspicion right now is that the wolves are Mac, Mith and Volo (or possibly Durelin or Menel here as the third one). But I need to analyse the loudmouths and think more about everybody, before I can really start pointing fingers at people.

Ok, this was supposed to be my "short" post... Both Nog and Greenie are waiting for their turn, so I'd better go. We'll be sharing the computer the whole Day, so we all can't flood-post all the time...

edit. xed with Mith and Mac - should I scream in terror? *would add a smiley if it was allowed*
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Old 02-29-2008, 02:02 PM   #17
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Mac,I don't know why Mith plays so nervously and alarmed I do not concur with your interpretation (mine is a simple combination of PMT, work stress, other RL stress and just too little time making me irritable. Perpetually sane and serene is ironic you know, you should, you have played with me before. The fact that you do not realise by now that being grouchy and thin skinned is completely normal for me in werewolf games, seems a bit odd.
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Old 02-29-2008, 02:25 PM   #18
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As Mac seemed to ask for it, here come my reasons for suspecting him.

1. My yesterday's theory of a wolf slip. I'm still uncertain whether it really was a slip (actually I might have to think that through now that Cab is proven innocent...) or whether I should believe Mac's explanation of it.

2. His over-estimation of the suspicion cast on him looks furry.

3. His votes look fishy. On Day1, he voted precisely at the deadline, on Day2 a minute before it. Both times his vote has been to someone others have bandwaggoned first. Also, this caught my eye:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mac
I think I'll hesitate voting McCaber
6 minutes before deadline... and yet he votes him all the same. Of course it was to save his own skin, and I understand it, but combined to his Day1 vote of going with the bandwaggon but saying that "I would have much preferred Lommy" it looks weird...

To other matters, then. The thing I'm most worried about is yesterDay's last-minute Cabwagon. I left my lurking-post behind Lommie's shoulder a some ten minutes before deadline to go and chop chocolate. When at deadline I asked her who was lynched and she replied "McCaber" I was baffled, because when I had last seen the thread Cab had but one vote. He had received 3 votes in the last ten minutes. That is something we should have a look at, especially because Cabbie was innocent. Somehow I can't believe all the Cabwaggoners are just mislead innocents.

That's all for now. Apart from Mac, I am alarmed by Noggie (overall feeling + cabwaggoning) and Volo (weirdness + cabwaggoning). I'm unsure about Menel.

Now I think I'll let Nog use the computer for change, just for the sake of equality.


EDIT: x-ed with Mithdurelinmith
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