Werewolf XLIV: In the House of Tom Bombadil

[Nogrod]

Okay.

It's coming too late for me to stay awake.

But there really has been things going on! We should read these posts of toDay carefully indeed.

I hope people post as we're at the crucial moments. It's 7-3 at the moment and that doesn't look too bad in itself, but on the beginning of Day 4 (the next Day) it will be 5-3 if we don't get it right toDay and if we miss on the next Day, it's the end...

So let's concentrate.

I'm to sleep now.

PS. Looking at Rikae's last post. You seem to make some of the same points I've thought were problematic with Mac. The way he said he was the talk of the town on Day1 like wolves feel they are when he actually wasn't (and which was the initial reason - combined with my personal annoyance that he began the game with suspecting me from out of the blue and with no points whatsoever once again - admitted), and his overall touchiness that lends itself to the posts he made in the end of the last Day don't look good even if he's good enough to make posts that otherwise look believable - the art in which certain people are the masters (so should I look at you if Mac turns out innocent? ).

But that's a case to be considered. Now I'm off to sleep.

EDIT: X'd with Dury

[Nerwen]

Rikae, after reading the late posts yesterDay I'm less inclined to think Mac innocent that I did– and, yes, he's had a strange edginess to his manner. Do remember, though, that part of the case against him depends on Greenie's theory that he let slip his knowledge that McCaber was a wolf. Obviously this no longer applies (though Greenie seems not to have realized this fully– see #281 toDay).

Also:

Originally Posted by Macalaure

This seems to be the plan of the wolves, to make our loud and wordy ones argue in circles and lynch each other.

Now, if you assume he is furry, that sounds like a smoothly-delivered gloat-cum-double-bluff, which hardly sits with his observed nervousness.

[Meneltarmacil]

Here we go again. Nerwen is trying to "suspect" Mac while absolving him of guilt at the same time. Notice how she mentions some "strange edginess" and doesn't explain, but tries to shut down the more valid criticisms of him?

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Meneltarmacil

Here we go again. Nerwen is trying to "suspect" Mac while absolving him of guilt at the same time. Notice how she mentions some "strange edginess" and doesn't explain, but tries to shut down the more valid criticisms of him?

Menel, I am not trying to absolve Mac– in fact I'm saying that I'm re-thinking my opinion of him. I did not detail what I meant by his "edginess" because I'd only be repeating observations already made by Greenie and Rikae.

What in Middle-earth do you mean by "valid criticisms"? Mac can't have let slip that he knew McCaber was a wolf. McCaber wasn't a wolf.

[Nerwen]

I said I'd look at Durelin.

Earlier I couldn't get a read on her, except that this:

Originally Posted by Durelin

Okay, I feel now I can vote for McCab. I mean, how shocking that he returns suspicious of Gwath

sounded overdone, if you know what I mean.

Other than that, she hasn't said that much, but her posts yesterDay (#213) and toDay (#279 and #299) look like she's both trying to agree with everyone and suspect everyone at the same time. Possibly so she can safely jump on any given wagon that presents itself?

Admittedly, this is rather thin– and also I don't know how she usually plays– but I don’t think she should be allowed to slip by the way she’s doing.

Menel next.

[Macalaure]

Rikae's vote for me was.. unexpected. If this was the vote of a wolf, it was a bold one, because it sticks out badly and will come to haunt her in case I'm lynched and found innocent. But then, maybe the wolves play safe at night and bold at day. Playing differently at night and day is a good cover. I still like my other top suspects better than her, since they're being more sneaky.

I might be becoming too confident in my suspicion, Durelin, but your explanations don't sound too convincing. You say Lily is skating by neatly, which is very vague. Her placement should be considered but shouldn't make her a top suspect suddenly? Now really, what does that mean? You have somebody skating by, then you find something that you admit is suspicious, and you say it isn't that bad? That's an accusation and a defense within only one half of a sentence. By the way, it's the reasoning of her votes that makes her suspicious to me, not the placement. My apologies if you're innocent and honest about this, but you're also all of a sudden being suspiciously nice to me in your last post.

I had some reservations about calling Nerwen innocent the past two Days, but reading her posts of toDay finally make me confident in saying so.

Menel seems more innocent, too, but rather off the track. I think you're too fixed on a few people and lose objectivity. While this makes you appear innocent to me, it's not too helpful.

[A Little Green]

Okay I don't have time now to write anything long and will be gone for most of the Day, but I'll certainly be back a few hours before deadline.

From toDay's posts, Mac looks worse, I'm baffled about Nerwen and feel better about both Nog and Menel.

I've got to go now. Sorry.

[Nerwen]

I’ve ending up analysing Menel in more detail than Durelin, because there’s more to go on (whereas she seems to be trying to be as vague as possible).

Day 1.

#20. Says Lommy is provoking Gwath and “casting suspicion on him for no good reason”. Makes prediction: he will suspect Boro who will prove innocent.

#23. Says Lommy is “jokingly casting suspicion” on Gwath. Says this is a wolf-tactic.

#33. (I think replying to Boro’s comment about Lommy’s playing style) “To be honest, I believe people have their own styles of playing and tend to use them regardless of their roles. I honestly don't think we can find a wolf by playing style here, and I would doubt that Lommy actually plays differently based on her role.”

To quote myself on the same Day (#59):

looks to me like he's saying, "See? I didn't jump on Boro's suggestions at all!"

Says his comment on Boro was because Boro has usually been innocent when he suspected him.

#43. Is (quite reasonably, I think) puzzled by Mac jumping on Nogrod’s line about “protecting our assets”.

#72. Doesn’t know why Mac thought Nogrod’s line worth mentioning; doesn’t know what to make of McCaber.

#101. Lommy and Mac are odd; suspects Mac more. Doesn’t suspect Gwath. Votes Mac (gives no reason).


Day 2.

#179. Suspects Mac and McCaber.

#189. Agrees with Boro that Mith is suspicious. Votes McCaber on the grounds that he voted Gwath on such weak reasons.

Day 3.

#289. Says the “Caberwagon” will probably shed light on who the wolves are. Sees Nogrod, Volo and Mac as suspicious.

#291. Finds Nogrod’s analysis of me “revealing” and goes on to theorize that Mac and I are wolves together.

#302. Says I’m “trying to ‘suspect’ Mac while absolving him of guilt at the same time. (For the record: I'm not– I'm just trying to think it out.)

General comments: veering around like a weathervane, and seems willing to suspect whoever the last poster did. But is he a wolf trying to play safe, or just a bewildered innocent? I could read it either way.

EDIT: X'd with Mac and Greenie.
EDIT 2: fixed tags.

[Nerwen]

I need to look at some more people; still don't have any clear ideas on who the wolves are. This is like a replay of last game, only worse. (Hands up who still thinks gifteds are useless?)

Just a reminder to everyone: The Departure of Boromir means there are now three wolves vs seven innocents. If we don't get a wolf toDay, toMorrow could be the end, so please be very careful with your votes.

[Thinlómien]

Okay, a quick-ish posts before I'll start the analyses.

I don't like the way Mac casts suspicion on me. I dare to claim he knows me well enough that if he was innocent, he'd know that as a wolf I'd never ever play this way - unless I had suddenly become a ww genious, which (sadly) hasn't happened. If Mac had to follow his honest feelings instead of what could look suspicious, I doubt he'd suspect me. The same goes for Rikae too, but to a far lesser extent. They both know how I play and if they are without any knowledge of who's innocent and who's not, they should realise that I play as only an ordo-Lommy can. But if they are wolves, they need to fabricate their suspicions and grasp at suspicious behaviour - which is why they suspect me, because how I normally play does - I guess - look relatively suspicios on standard terms. Now, this logic doesn't possibly make sense to anyone else but me and it can't convince anyone else but me (for you can't know that I'm innocent, unless you're wolves), but nevertheless, I feel I'm right here and this is one of the main reasons I suspect and have suspected Mac in this game. And I know that probably looks like a very fishy thing to say, but it's true, it's how I feel. (And dare to call it wolvish and I'll say you are wolves too because I'd never dare to write anything like that as a wolf... )

Continuing on this logic, I find it rather troubling that while a couple of people have suspected me quite a lot even during this game, they have done nothing concrete about it. No cases against me, no votes. (I'm looking at Mac especially here.) Why? because they don't want a full-frontal retaliatory attack fro me because they have something to hide? Nah, that is possible, but I rather think it is because they know I'm innocent and getting an innocent experienced loudmouth lynched never looks too good.

What else? Since Nogrod's analysis Nerwen has felt less innocent. Actually, I look at everything she says with a reservation I did not have before and there's something evil-looking in there. Now I'm slightly concerned about how I was this well turned by Nogrod's analysis and will refrain commenting on Nerwen before I've analysed Nogrod.

Even though I feel this way, I feel a bit alarmed about Menel's quick jump to supporting Nogrod's somewhat critical Nerwen-analysis. It looks like he really had no reservations about Nogrod's motives or that he didn't really consider Nerwen but rather jumped on what could later become a bandwagon.

Originally Posted by Mac

I don't know what you're talking about (what contradiction?), and I think you're pushing your Nog, Rikae, Mac, (Boro) thing way to hard. You look like a wolf trying to get the village to lynch an(y) innocent loudmouth.

Originally Posted by Rikae

I will say that I don't like her "almost 100% certainty" one bit... primarily because she herself belongs on the list of experienced, loud and helpful players if anyone does, and by highlighting the others she manages to sidestep the spotlight.

(In response to both) Sorry, I don't understand your logic. First off, Mac, if I was trying to get someone killed, I think I'd rather be actually throwing points against him/her, not mentioning that I should do an analysis of him/her, which is a relative neutral thing to say and generally doesn't convince people to lynch the person in question. Fishy, my friend, fishy.
Rikae... I know I'm loud, I know I'm experienced (if you count by number of games, more experienced than you, Mac or Boro) and I know I can be helpful. But while all the four of you have seemed very confident throughout the game and I've only been baffled and not feeling I'm playing well at all, so I kind of feel inferior to you guys right now. I mean, I can see all the four of you strongly affecting other villagers' opinions, while I just can't see myself doing that in this game, rather just sailing here and there with my suspicions that are probably far off the mark. I hope that explained something...

I'm torn about Mith. On the other hand, there's something sinister around her, but on the other hand, her declaration of innocence speaks for her actual innocence and RL reasons are RL reasons... I think I should have a look at her, too, if I have time.

There's something very suspicious in Durelin's very manner toDay and it's confusing me. And no, I'm afraid I can't elaborate, it's more like a feeling.

Ok, now I'm off to do Macalysis as it seems like a rather urgent matter... then I will probably proceed to Noglysis to re-judge the him-Nerwen thing and lastly, if I have time, I'll look at Rikae who started to feel more innocent because of her vote. Although, I really wouldn't put it past her to vote her fellow like that.

See? I'm already assuming Mac's a wolf... not good...

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Do remember, though, that part of the case against him depends on Greenie's theory that he let slip his knowledge that McCaber was a wolf. Obviously this no longer applies (though Greenie seems not to have realized this fully– see #281 toDay).

Actually, (as I mentioned yesterday), to me thhe post Greenie pointed out made more sense from the point of view that Mac knew McCaber was innocent.

[Nerwen]

Lommynalysis

Day 2.

#151. Doesn’t understand why Mith thinks Sally’s death incriminates A Little Green. Points out that we can’t lynch Aganzir, in spite of her low post count. Sally was probably just a safe kill, but that her posts should still be examined, as should the Day One votes.

#159. Suspects McCaber and Mithalwen– thinks Mith is acting towards Boro as Rikae did to Mac in the last game. In confused by Mac– finds him “nervously defensive”– he remind her of herself when furry. Asks Nogrod to elaborate on why he suspects certain people. Disagrees with Mac that Sally’s death exonerates The Ka.

#182. Thinks Rikae innocent. (Replying to Mac) says her vote for McCaber X’d with others and would have been neither risky nor smart even if were she a wolf. Doesn’t like, Boro, Nogrod or The Ka. Says Nogrod, Greenie, Durelin & THE Ka have slipped under her radar.

#186. Finds Volo suspicious.

#187. Mac seems more innocent, others less so. Makes a list:

Innocentish
Nerwen

Slightly innocentish
Rikae
Boro
THE Ka


Neutral
Nogrod
Mac
A Little Green (ugh, she really slips under my radar)

Slightly suspicious-ish
Durelin
Menel

Suspicious-ish
McCaber
Mith

Suspicious
Volo

#199. Is struck by Greenie’s theory that Mac slipped up and revealed his knowledge that McCaber was a wolf. Says the quote could also be read to mean that Mac knew McCaber was innocent. Then say the quote seems normal after all.

#212. Says there’s little point examining the people who said they were only voting on Day One to save Boromir. Volo “looks so foul it hurts”. Yet his frustation seems innocent. Still confused about Mac.

#217. Finds Mith innocent because she herself, if a wolf, would never do something as blatant as actually proclaiming her innocence.

I mean, as a wolf, I would never do such a proclamation of innocence. I could say I'm innocent, but I would not make a show of it. It would feel so completely dishonest. Maybe I'm naive, but I instinctively assume other people be as honest/stupid as me...

(Now that I do not like– it's almost creepily self-conscious)

Doesn’t understand why Durelin thinks she’s “freaking”.

#253. Would like to vote McCaber or Volo.

#258. Votes Volo.

#259. (Replying to Rikae, who says we shouldn’t give Boro a free pass) This should be remembered.

#262. (Replying to Rikae, who says Volo is too uncautious to be a wolf) With no seer the wolves can afford being uncautious... which isn't saying I'm sure about Volo's guilt.

#268. (After Mac says he’d prefer voting McCaber to Volo) Mac looks innocent and should not be lynched.

Comment: Flip-flopping as usual. Still seems innocent, even if #217 gives me pause.

EDIT: fixed tags; X'd with Rikae.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Rikae

Actually, (as I mentioned yesterday), to me thhe post Greenie pointed out made more sense from the point of view that Mac knew McCaber was innocent.

Yes, and Lommy said the same thing. I just saw that now while re-reading yesterDay's posts.

Hmmn. Maybe you're right about him after all. I don't like his reasons for voting Lommy.

[Rikae]

You know, if Mac does actually turn out innocent after all, it would be a good idea to take seriously the accusations he's made today, I think.
Actually, even if he is a wolf, he may be resorting to some wolf-on-wolf tactics in anticipation of being lynched... I'm inclined to think so, because I find the people he's listed suspicious as well (of course, they can't *all* be wolves, but I doubt very highly they're all innocent!)

Actually, of those three, Lommy's recent post makes me feel better about her simply because it is so subjective. It's the sort of glimpse into her own psyche (remember, Lommy, you don't necessarily look the same to us as you do to yourself) that would be hard for a wolf to fake.

EDIT: Removed floating punctuation, X'd with Nerwen.

[Nerwen]

No, I don't think it's Lommy. I've just re-read everything she said in the first two Days, and I highly doubt she's a wolf. The other two would certainly bear looking at. I haven't given much thought to Greenie... and Durelin I find positively creepy.

[Volo]

I was distracted by an ordered trip to the shop, but now I've went through Durelin.

Durelin has been right, very much so. So far she has been wrong only with McCaber. At the moment she has this Mac, Rikae and Lily thing going, but at no point Durelin has tried getting somebody lynched, she is playing carefully.
I would like to think of her as Innocent, because she has so far been rather right, but what do you others think. I mean, somehow she slips from the discussion.

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Volo

I was distracted by an ordered trip to the shop, but now I've went through Durelin.

Durelin has been right, very much so. So far she has been wrong only with McCaber. At the moment she has this Mac, Rikae and Lily thing going, but at no point Durelin has tried getting somebody lynched, she is playing carefully.
I would like to think of her as Innocent, because she has so far been rather right, but what do you others think. I mean, somehow she slips from the discussion.

That's funny, you call her innocent for exactly the reasons I would call someone a wolf. In fact, the above could be turned into a good argument for lynching Durelin if you just changed the "I would like to think of her as Innocent" bit.

[Volo]

Note: I have come to dislike summaries, because you can never fully trust them and see the whole picture.

Nerwen, the feels too easy person.
I've rethought her toDay's posts. Her decision that Lommy is Innocent looks like decided during the Night before the summary/analysis. At first I wanted to agree, but something feels foul now.
Not to forget that the two Days before were very smoothly (although this can apply to Durelin too, but to a lesser extent).
I'm quite ready to call her a Wolf - the thing that bothers me however is how quick Mac and Nogrod were to agree about her. Maybe others too, I think I'll check that next.

[Volo]

Thoughts on Nerwen by others.

Day1

Originally Posted by Rikae

In this vein, my first reaction to Nerwen's post was "wolf!" but I think it might be wise to try to look beyond what is apparently a bias on my part. If anyone's interested, it was the structure of her post -- banter, followed by a rather off-the-wall bit of wolf-strategy-theory, followed by a defense. Too people-pleasing, I thought, too cautious.

However, although that was my first reaction, I'm aware I have a tendency to always find Nerwen suspicious (and Durelin, and Aganzir... just laying my cards on the table), so, on second glance...

Rikae finds Nerwen's first post suspicious, is uncertain and wary of Nerwen, later says that Nerwen is always suspicious to her.

Lommy, Mac and Lily find Nerwen Innocent (in that order) without appearant reason. (In the same contexts Lommy also thinks of Boro and Sally as Innocent; Lily thinks Rikae, later Sally and Lommy.)
However:

Originally Posted by Macalaure

Nerwen I used to think innocent, but her post about McCaber doesn't look good, very hasty actually. But then, a wolf might like to give her posts a more polished look.

Nogrod states that Nerwen's analyses are very roundabout. Is later uneasy about her, also about Volo, McCaber, The Ka and LG.

Durelin can't read Nerwen.


Conclusion:
Nerwen doesn't jump out, is regarded quite Innocent.
I find Lommy's and Lily's trust rather too quick, possible Wolf connection.


I'll post this and move to Day2, in a shortend version, because time is running out.

I feel that there's something nasty about lynching Mac. More and more I feel like he's being framed.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Volo

Durelin has been right, very much so. So far she has been wrong only with McCaber. At the moment she has this Mac, Rikae and Lily thing going, but at no point Durelin has tried getting somebody lynched, she is playing carefully.
I would like to think of her as Innocent, because she has so far been rather right, but what do you others think. I mean, somehow she slips from the discussion.

Being right when looking backwards to people's votes, arguments and "hunches" isn't actually a sign of an innocent. Remember that the wolves can be right 100% if they wish - and the situation allows them to do it. When a wolf "gets something wrong" it's always deliberate but innocents need to guess and argue on premises they're not sure if they are correct with interpretations they can't be sure.

I know this is a bad argument gamewise but as I'm still thinking Mac as one of my top suspects to be one of the wolves the fact that Rikae - whom I feel to be more innocentish than wolfy - goes for him that determinedly with her guts and feelings kind of assures me about it. There is something like a very real sense in which one could say those two should be able to feel or see when the other is bluffing more than with some of us others - like how I feel Lommy to be quite innocentish now as she's my daughter and I see her acting just soo Lommyishly...

Looking at other candidates then as well.

If Nerwen indeed is a wolf her earlier declaration of Mac's innocence (alongside with Rikae and Lommy) would be wise tactic (at least if Rikae and Lommy actually are innocents) and her latest very easy "reconsideration" of his innocence would be a forced reaction as she clearly sees she has no believable way to protect her mate any more. All this surely presupposes Mac's guilt.

Of others I'm still a bit uneasy - or at least a bit confused - with Volo as he both turns up in all those "cross-listings" of mine (Gwathwagon and "let's not lynch Boro" - btw. alongside Mac) and because of his marked going to and fro with the two aforementioned. He says that he thought Nerwen wolfy yesterDay but not toDay (did he say he thought Nerwen was suspicios to him in the first place?) but then again turns a round in his latest posts, he agrees Mac felt bad yesterDay but yet turns it around as well.

The one also popping up in my "cross-listings" in both categories is Mith with whom I'm in total darkness right now. I mean it just doesn't make sense if there isn't at least one wolf in the "Gwathwagon" and "No-Boro"-lynch. Now Mac is there with two hits - and the others are Volo and Mith. I'd say one of them is a wolf and am inclined to vote Mac toDay for reasons stated above and earlier.

Okay. I need to go and continue in the kitchen... but I will be back later.

EDIT: X'd with everything the last half an hour (beginning from Rikae)

[Thinlómien]

Quick post before I continue Macalysis...

Originally Posted by Nerwen

#139. (I think answering Nogrod, who says we should look at Volo and McCaber): “What?”

Actually I was commenting the overall paranoia.

Originally Posted by Mac

What I find extremely suspicious about this bit, is how conscious you are about your way of playing. You seem to be convinced that you're playing precisely like you always play and, whether this is true or not, an ordo wouldn't be aware of it. An ordo usually automatically falls into his/her common style of play, but not intentionally. Only wolves, and maybe gifteds occasionally, do that.

Agreed. I'm aware of my playing style. Why? I don't know. I could give you a list of rather insignificant reasons (like "I was a wolf in the last game and now I'm enjoying the plain craziness of being an ordo" or "people accused me based on my playing style very early on so I had to pay attention to it") but I doubt you'd buy it because even I don't totally believe those are the reasons why.

Originally Posted by Mac

Oh, for crying out loud... I have never seen anybody, including you (who claims to play like she always does!), fish for pity like that. If you really wrote these lines honestly, then I'm honestly sorry for being so incompassionate, but I highly, highly doubt it.

I was not fishing for pity. I don't think I need pity. I don't suffer from being confused. I might sound careless but I actually partly enjoy being confused, especially now as I'm beginning to be what a certain person is hiding so I'm not confused about everything. Lastly, I was just pointing out the thing that seemed like a difference between the four of you and myself. If I actually was drowning in self-pity, I would not compare myself with ww masterminds like you at all...

Originally Posted by Mac

If you were innocent, yes. But you aren't. You're vaguely pointing in the directions of people you'd like to get rid of, hoping the ordos bite on it and make the strong cases by themselves.

I'm sometimes concerned on how stupid you must think I am.... Also, I hope I don't really give an impression to be like that because I consider myself a pretty straightforward person and if I'd want to get rid of somebody I'd build the cases myself, trust me. Now, I'm off to comment on some actions of yours... *whistles in a carefree manner*

Seriously, yes, I'm going to complete my analysis now but I'm afraid it will end up rather biased because Macalaure screams a wolf to me. His points against me are weak and it looks like he's just demonstarting to me that he actually dares to attack and vote me unlike I claimed. I think it's very improbable that I'll end up voting anyone else but I'll just complete the analysis for the sake of being just and finishing things I've started. Maybe I'll even be surprised...

Oh, and as a parting shot i'd like to say that Mr Volo is giving me headache with being totally confusing... but I suspect him less than I used to.

edit: xed with Nerwen