Tol-in-Gaurhoth LXVIII: A Full Moon Over Innsmouth

[Nerwen]

Farewell, Dreamer! In the name of great Cthulhu and the Deep Ones of many-columned Y’ha-nthlei, we will not fail you! Iä! Iä!

...So I have, as I said I would, checked out Lari's Day 3 interactions. However, I've also found what I think is a conclusive proof that Wilwa is straight out lying about her motivations in impersonating the Ranger. (Coming soon.)

I'm posting the other stuff anyway because she might still be the Agent rather than a wolf. I don't think so, but its best to be prepared.

#279

Originally Posted by Inziladun

Well, my results of looking at Kit's posts suggest that her main suspect was Wilwa. That's who she voted for on Day 1 (she doesn't seem to have voted on Day 2). She didn't like Wilwa's Day 1 vote aginst Hakon.
She did an analysis of Lari and me, thinking Lari looked slightly 'dodgier'.

He's just saying Lari (in Kit's view) was more suspicious than him... so nothing either way.

#292
[from long analysis of Kit]

Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife

[I]She didn't vote. Based on her posts, I think she probably would have voted for Lari or Inzil, but we really have no way of knowing. And I think the wolves were counting on that.

#301

Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife

Both Lari and Inzil I analyzed yesterday. Inzil was more suspicious than Lari to me. I find subtle hinting more suspicious than blatant cases, and Inzil was doing that towards Nogrod. Of course, we had two innocents up for the lynch yesterDay, so a wolf could have gone with either one.

Fairly non-commital, slightly favouring Lari.


#307

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

This far, she [Lari] could be 50-50 either for me. Though that suspicion of SpM on Day 1 would be somewhat too complicated to think of if it was orchestrated, but then, I really don't know that much about Lari to conclude how complicated schemes she could make (if it wasn't given as an idea to her by SpM himself anyway). Well, though I really don't know. Don't see her in particular as good as to vote for, but certainly watching her for now.

Non-committal.

#324

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

The remaining Wolf then could be people like Brinn, Nerwen, even maybe Lari...

From here on, becomes increasingly suspicious of Lari.

#336

Originally Posted by Lariren Shadow

What if our thinking that Morsul is the Agent is wrong? What if he is a newbie wolf, told by his packmate to reveal falsely? Or could Hakon's not death point to that he is a wolf and possibly that Morsul is also a wolf and they planned a whole double reveal planning on not killing Pitch because the logical thing for the real Priest to do would be to protect the Dreamer?

We talked about the Morsul as Agent-impersonating wolf yesterDay. But as you see, it was pushed by none other than Wolfiren Shadow herself!

She is now going strongly after Hakon, in direct contrast to her attitude the Day before, when she was for leaving the Ranger-claimants alone. Why? I think there must have been a lot of discussion that Night, and the wolves decided that their only hope was to get Hakon out of the way, whatever the cost.

Given that scenario, #336 looks bad for Wilwa– it could mean her packmate is preparing to deal with her inevitable exposure as a false Ranger by suggesting that she, not Morsul, is the Agent.

#339

Originally Posted by Lariren Shadow

Hakon, you do realize your first sentence and last sentence are contradictory, right?

#341

Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife

I didn't even see that. Good catch, Lari.

#374

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Okay, basically, of all the people, whom I could vote for toDay, after eliminating those I have eliminated in my earlier posts toDay, it's either Lari or Nerwen for me to vote toDay.

#366

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

I have been actually wondering, today, if it would be so improbable for those two [Lari and SPM] to really orchestrate this suspicion-exchange... well, but then again, imagining the way it was written... Hm, I will probably read the particular posts again once more, but I don't know.

#387 [The post in which she voted for Hakon]

Originally Posted by Lariren Shadow

I don't have much time because I have to run off to teach religious school but why would Crayon reveal? (...)

So Legate's suspicion of me comes from my commenting on SPM's post on Day 1? With a whole long list that kind of indicates a huge plan between us? I don't like this(and not just because its me). It seems like this is grasping at straws. I was just looking for something suspicious on Day 1, see if the wolves slipped, and well I guess SPM did. I think a Legate analysis is in order for toMorrow.

Brinn's response to Lottie(is that ok for a nickname?) seems rather innocent to me. She just got feed up with the bad claims and wanted to make it right. I don't see that as really guilty, especially with the tone she uses.

Roa's attack of Nerwen doesn't look that odd to me, but Nerwen's defense is rather more defensive at times. I can't tell if this is just a fed up innocent, like Brinn, or a worried wolf.

Casts doubt on Crayon; mildly supports Roa while "suspecting" me; supports Brinn (while making what I think could be a slip in Brinn's favour); strongly "suspects" Legate, and indeed makes a mini-case against him.

#388

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Why are you voting for Hakon, Lari???

I am giving the reactions of the known innocent here as a reality check, in case anyone wants to argue that the votes for Lari came out of nowhere.

#390

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

I sort of don't like her approach to the disputes of Brinn or Roa etc., as it looks somehow too "balanced", like, this reserved attitude a Wolf could have to strike to one of the parties, if need be.
Also, her vote for Hakon is undeniably "safe". Let us remember that we have seemingly a last Wolf somewhere in the field and the RangerWolf. It is far too easy to cast a vote for one of the Rangers and not worry about anything else. (That's also what Hakon did.) Though then again, would a Wolf do such a thing? Isn't it too much obviously sticking out of the crowd by giving an obvious throwaway vote?

Not much time. I guess I cannot reread like I wanted. I may vote Lari.

#391

Originally Posted by Nerwen

So, how do you know Brinn is innocent, hmmn?

#399

Originally Posted by Nogrod

There's the Lari - wilwa connection I spotted on Day1 and have not totally forgotten. Also Lari's vote toDay was odd indeed (whatever that might then mean).

#400

Interesting note, of course could be just bad wording, but could be a nice slip. Could as well give it a try to lynch Lari, really, also with this.

#401

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Well, I'm going to vote either Lari or Loslote. Just stating my intentions so there'll be no argument from Roa tomorrow.

Loslote for reasons given already, Lari mainly for her last post.

#404

Originally Posted by Nogrod

What say you: Lari or Loslote?

Conclusions:

Though Cthulhu knows Legate is sneaky enough for anything, I must say his suspicion of Lari and hers of him look serious, rather than a manufactured wolf-on-wolf act.

Lari has "liked" Roa throughout the game. On Day 3 Roa's attitude ranges from non-commital to mildly positive (really only at #341 where she congratulates Lari on pickng up Hakon's "slip"), but Day 2 she made significant points against her. On the whole, I doubt she is Lari's packmate either.

Lari has only nice things to say about Brinn (#387). A wolf trying to save her comrade? Probably not– at that point no-one was even talking about lynching Brinn, so I see it as more of a feel-good statement. The important thing, though, is whether that "slip" can be taken as proof of Brinn's innocence or not.

Inzil No real connection; mildly supported Lari in one comment on Day 2.

Morsul Now that we know Lari wanted us to think he was a cobbler-impersonator, it becomes unlikely that he is, barring the possibility of a double-bluff. Still, I think if by any chance Wilwa does turn out a non-wolf, he'll have to be next up for lynching.

[Roa_Aoife]

I'm only here for a short time before I head off to work. First things first:

++Wilwa

Also, I think Wilwa should vote for herself so we can have a unanimous lynch.

Next: Using the masculine pronoun to describe an unknown person is proper grammar in the English language.

Finally, Nerwen, if you are going to be doing this for a while, I feel that I should point out that if neither Wilwa nor Morsul is a wolf, it comes down to you, Legate, Inzil, and me. (Anyone else alive at that point is a known.) So at least the analysis is narrowed down.

[wilwarin538]

And indeed, every post of hers from the very beginning of Day One had a ring symbol.

Snap.

Hmm......yep.....don't have anything to say to that.


Wilwa fail.

++Wilwa

(doomed anyway right, I've always wanted to vote for myself anyway )

[wilwarin538]

aha, Roa, there ya go!

edit: aha, no, I think you should all be forced to wait it out til the end....

[Roa_Aoife]

I've been gone for a while, but I believe this is the first unanimous lynch in WW history.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Morsul the Dark

Or Maybe she's the real priest and Hakon is just better at playing the part? Wilwa could be hiding in plain sight from the wolves with doubt surrounding them Wilwa denying priesthood helps her survive while a hakonwolf could in essence continue playing the part of pries in which case the real priest wouldn't be able to reveal without immediate lynching maybe two false priests possible?

...whut?

EDIT:X'd since Wilwa.

[Roa_Aoife]

Come on, Morsul, make WW history with us. You know you want to.

[Morsul the Dark]

Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife

Come on, Morsul, make WW history with us. You know you want to.

Translation: bandwagon with us Bandwagon before anyone realizes what I'm doing!

[Morsul the Dark]

Nerwen, Isn't my role to cause confusion... by the way although the thought made sense to me when I reread that post I don't get it... and I know what I meant

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Morsul the Dark

Nerwen, Isn't my role to cause confusion... by the way although the thought made sense to me when I reread that post I don't get it... and I know what I meant

Clearly you're a little too good at your role.

Anyway–

++Wilwa.

[Morsul the Dark]

Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife

Also, I think Wilwa should vote for herself so we can have a unanimous lynch.

without analysis of anyone else? waste a day or two(if you include my inevitable lynching) nets you what? 4 more kills? wilwa, night kill, me, night kill....

Sounds suspicious to me.... Quick vote and don't think!!

Then again Wilwa and I are just Roa's scapegoats so what can we expect.

Though I'd gladly die to keep her alive one more day

Lari has "liked" Roa throughout the game. On Day 3 Roa's attitude ranges from non-commital to mildly positive (really only at #341 where she congratulates Lari on pickng up Hakon's "slip"), but Day 2 she made significant points against her. On the whole, I doubt she is Lari's packmate either.

and this nugget:

Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife
And if the last wolf isn't Wilwa or Morsul and manages to survive to the end, then they deserve to win.