WWLXX: At the Prison of Ice

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Okay... I'm going to have to vote pretty soon.

I think we really do need to lynch one of the "evil" Day 3 voters; at least we'll get some information that way– at present the whole thing is just a conundrum.

The trouble is that the situation on Day 3, when we lynched Nienna, still pertains– that is, there's a number of more-or-less equally guilty-looking people, some of whom are not wolves, and depending on how things go, the real wolves may be able to nudge the lynch the way they want pretty easily.

Oh well. Can't be helped.

It is a mighty conundrum, but how many times do wolves get close to the noose one day only to be dropped from suspicion for some reason the next? I would rather know for sure about one of those "evil" Day 3 voters, than just drop suspicion on them out of paranoia that it looks too easy. And consider the benefits of being correct (another wolf down) and the cost of being wrong.

If we are wrong, at least we made a logical and wise lynch based on sound reasons which have less of a chance of turning out to be a crippling lynch than deciding we drop the suspicion on them and go for conspiracy theories about someone double or triple bluffing.

Now, I have looked at all the wolf kills, and I don't have the time to specifically point out their posts, but I'll summarize what I've written down.

Inzil's strongest suspect for two days, I would say was Mac. He suspected Mac for Mac's quick jump on the Boro-versy (good word Inzil ). On Day 2 he backed away Mac, but this looked like a forced decision from Inzil to try to consider other people. Which he wound up primarily suspecting Mnemo and Lottie...said Nog was a puzzle, he had some misgivings about me, and voted for Lottie.

Greenie on Day 1 was most wary of Mnemo, Morsul and Nog. Wound up voting for Mnemo.
Day 2 she thought Boro, Mac, Brinn, and Lommy were good. Still wary of Mnemo, found Pitch too agreeable and Nog was back to normal, but she was still unsure.
Day 3 is an interesting one, because she is now most wary of Eomer, Pitch, and sally. Unsure of Brinn, Nienna, and Nog.

I say interesting because she was pretty much after Mnemo from the start, and then on Day 3 Pitch moved from unsure, to being wary. Greenie was killed before Lotties revealed...is it safe to assume they thought Greenie had a special-seer role, with her suspicion against 2 now known wolves? I think we can say by killing her when she moved Pitch to the "wary" category they didn't think she was the hunter.

Eomer I haven't looked at as in depth as Inzil and Pitch. But what does stand out is his stance, that he didn't think there was wolf-on-wolf amongst the Mnemo voters, and concentrated on those who tried to save her. By his saying the next day that he was happy with the Nienna lynch (even though it turned out she was innocent), maybe the wolves thought Eomer would continue to focus on those who supported Mnemo.

Now, off the top of my head Brinn and I both raised our disagreements with Eomer, but that was because we gave more credence to the wolf-on-wolf voting than Eomer was considering (at the time). As it turns out at least one wolf did vote for Mnemo, there is a possibility of another. However, it is interesting that Eomer is the one who winds up killed, there is several "expressed shocks" about it, and also to recall one of Lommy's points from Day 2. Mnemo had just as many defenders as she did attackers.