WW LXXV: It's Always Tea Time Here

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Okay, this does not make it much better. But I am not going to start thinking about Agan now.

Originally Posted by Loslote

It doesn't matter who was innocent-dreamed anymore. They could have been Cursed anyway, and thus would no longer be innocent.

Good point to mention, but let's not run too fast here. There is still no telling right now what exactly had happened yesterNight. Well, I could say the same to the suspicion you raised for me, though, not sure what do you mean by acting differently.

Anyway... as it does not seem like anybody willing to vote Shasta I think I will just vote Mira and go to sleep as I also start to feel rather tired and it's late anyway.

++Mira

Good night.

EDIT: x-ed with Nerwen, Lottie and Nerwen.

[Aganzir]

Alright... I have very little time to post today, just letting you know.

Did skip say anything obviously ranger looking yesterday? Because if he thwarted the wolf's kill the previous night, I don't think the wolf would've gone after anybody else last night without a very good reason... Which makes it maybe a bit more likely that either the cursed was turned, or the wolf missed a kill.

Originally Posted by Shasta

I really don't think we can afford to keep ignoring winty for long, though.

I'm bothered by his votes too. It doesn't take so much to contribute, really. But unlike you I think we can afford to ignore him if he doesn't do anything but vote and disappear. Lynching him now and finding him innocent would be bad for us, and it can always be argued whether a one post a day -wolf deserves to win.

Originally Posted by Brinn

I still find her suspicious and whatever her role may be, knowing it will at least ease my mind.

It's too late to lynch somebody because knowing their roles will ease your mind. We should get a lynch today.

And to be honest I'm somewhat worried about how some people seem to think "we lynch Nerwen first and if she isn't a wolf, then go for Agan." If Nerwen isn't a wolf, then it's way too easy for the wolf/wolves to get two innocents lynched without much effort of their own... Yes I still suspect Nerwen but I'm getting paranoid and don't want to concentrate on her alone.

Originally Posted by Brinn

Also, if Lottie is still alive, does this mean our wolf is still looking for the cursed?

Or maybe Lottie is a goner now that the ranger died - for all the wolf knows, the ranger might have protected the known innocent every second night.

I'm starting to feel uneasy about Brinn too... Nothing to back it up, she's just creepy.

Originally Posted by Brinn

we have two Days to get this right if the cursed is out there, three if it's just one wolf.

Yes but because of the retractions, I would say we have one day. If the cursed has been turned, it'll be 2-4 tomorrow, and both wolves might have their retractions left (everybody but Nerwen & I has theirs). And they can use them to lynch an innocent if opportunity arises.

Originally Posted by Lottie on Legate

As Agan was one of the top bandwaggons of yesterDay, this is strangely not committed.

I think he's been doing that with almost every lynch thus far (at least as far as I can recall), both with wolves and innocents... But I agree it's strange of Legate to be so non-committing. The Legate (both wolf & innocent) I'm used to is... different.

Originally Posted by Lommy

it's unlikely a wolf would intentionally kill the hunter

I don't think so. If the wolf wants to win, the hunter has to die sooner or later and the sooner, the better. Not sure if she really spotted Nienna though.

Originally Posted by Lommy

As for Skip, I'm tempted to say he made a save the Night before last Night and the wolf killed him in hopes of getting the cursed.

???
If he made a save, why didn't the wolf go for the one she had tried to kill? Which can obviously not be skip as the ranger couldn't protect himself.

There were some things I wanted to comment on yesterday but I don't have time for it now... Anyway Lommy's logic that my "horrible voting record isn't very convincing" is downright lousy, she KNOWS that if I was a wolf I would've done much better at spotting my fellows.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

Did skip say anything obviously ranger looking yesterday? Because if he thwarted the wolf's kill the previous night, I don't think the wolf would've gone after anybody else last night without a very good reason... Which makes it maybe a bit more likely that either the cursed was turned, or the wolf missed a kill.

I can see a way Team Evil might have picked him out. Remember that strange argument he made yesterDay, (#809, #812 and #823) insisting that my switching my vote to Morsul was suspect? (His reasoning being that an innocent would not want to waste a retraction on saving herself(!))

There's some interesting lines (bolded) in two of those posts.

#812.

Originally Posted by Skip

There's no direct contradiction. I said you'd likely survive even without the retraction.

If you are innocent I think it more probable that you'd take the risk of keeping the retraction and hoping none shows up to vote again. The consequences for the innocent team wouldn't have been that bad if this happened.

However, if you are a wolf, the consequences of getting lynched then would have been the greatest imaginable: the game would be instantly lost. There would be no comfort-zone to take chances.

#823.

Originally Posted by Skip

Yes but when when Nerwen retracted she was on 3 and Morsul on 5 with one person left to vote - you, who'd vote Nerwen. In other words, at that time it would take your vote plus another retraction from a third person to get her lynched. That could've happened, but wasn't very likely.

My point is, this risk to be lynched would seem more bearable for an innocent, because even if unfortune strikes, her team would still be in a good, if slightly worsened position. A wolf on the other hand would be desperate not to get lynched, because it would mean the End. Ergo, a wolf would imo have the strongest motivation to make that retraction move, without saying that an innocent couldn't do the same.

Now, leaving aside the fact that this is pretty silly– what good is having a retraction left when you're dead?– it also ignores the fact that at that point there was one innocent who had a particularly strong motive for wanting to stay alive, and whose death would have been a blow to the village. In other words, his entire argument rests on the assumption that I'm not the Ranger. Who could be sure of that? The Ranger.

Wolves tend to notice that kind of thing, even when the village doesn't.

Originally Posted by Aganzir

And to be honest I'm somewhat worried about how some people seem to think "we lynch Nerwen first and if she isn't a wolf, then go for Agan." If Nerwen isn't a wolf, then it's way too easy for the wolf/wolves to get two innocents lynched without much effort of their own... Yes I still suspect Nerwen but I'm getting paranoid and don't want to concentrate on her alone.

Mmn. Well, I really don't know about you either way, Agan– and I can see points against you, all right– but all the same I think it might be useful to see where this "one of them must be a wolf" meme comes from, and/or who has been helping it along.

Originally Posted by Aganzir

I'm starting to feel uneasy about Brinn too... Nothing to back it up, she's just creepy.

Maybe the bit you already quoted?

Originally Posted by Aganzir

???
If he made a save, why didn't the wolf go for the one she had tried to kill? Which can obviously not be skip as the ranger couldn't protect himself.

See my points above for how the wolf could have picked him as the Ranger... but Lommy's point still doesn't make sense.

By the way, it says in the rules that the Ranger can self-protect once, so in theory Skip could have saved himself on the night of no-kill. That seems unlikely, however.

Originally Posted by Aganzir

Anyway Lommy's logic that my "horrible voting record isn't very convincing" is downright lousy, she KNOWS that if I was a wolf I would've done much better at spotting my fellows.

Yes, but since you've been a major exponent of the "good voting is really bad voting" school, wouldn't an Aganwolf want to vote badly?

EDIT:fixed quotes and formatting.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Alright, I'm here, I have other work to do now, but I'll try to be around. A few comments for now:

As for skip's death - maybe, since he was the Ranger, it might be worth to try to see if, by any slight chance, he did not say anything yesterDay which might have given his role away. For that matter, it would be also interesting to see if there isn't anything which would lighten us on whether he perchance did not have a save yesterDay. Although, as it's been said, it may be quite likely that he himself has not been informed whether he made a save or not. But if there was something, maybe that might have been a reason for the Wolf to target him? Can't think of anything else right now.

Otherwise, I think we are getting sort of into the stage of losing the focus. I am really starting to reconsider whether if we had lynched Nerwen three Days ago, this game would've been done already. Anyway, also, if the Cursed has not been turned already, the chances are growing and eventually it might be a rather crucial moment if that happens (especially now without the Ranger!).

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

As for Skip, I'm tempted to say he made a save the Night before last Night and the wolf killed him in hopes of getting the cursed. This is quite hopeful thinking, but I think trying to get the cursed is the most believeable motive the wolf could've had for killing him (unless s/he has a much better gifted radar than me, which is possible especially as his/hers would be far more activated than mine).

One more idea. Would the Seer see the Cursed as innocent? Because in that case, if there is this generally believed theory of skip being a dreamt-of innocent, it would be quite convinient for the Wolf to try to get him, even more in the case that later e.g. Greenie was revived and confirmed his dreamed innocence (and thus nobody would suspect him at all).

As for what's been said about winty, I think it comes down to this general dilemma of having somebody who is not around basically at all... I would really like to see him around more and not just popping in and out with voting for the person who's being currently lynched.

Originally Posted by Aganzir

If he made a save, why didn't the wolf go for the one she had tried to kill? Which can obviously not be skip as the ranger couldn't protect himself.

Although now I see what Agan says, which is also true... hmm, well I guess then one more reason for me to look at whether skip said something yesterDay which could have looked Ranger-ish. Because in the case of the Ranger save, the Wolf only would know what happened (he/she would know if he/she sent the kill, and if there was no Cursed, then the only explanation left would be the Ranger save). It's possible that in such circumstances, the Wolf would go to eliminate the threat just to be on the safe side - but that assumes knowing who the Ranger is. (At least it is the one thing that makes sense to me.)

EDIT: okay, seems Nerwen actually had gone through some skip...

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

I can see a way Team Evil might have picked him out. Remember that strange argument he made yesterDay, (#809, #812 and #823) insisting that my switching my vote to Morsul was suspect? (His reasoning being that an innocent would not want to waste a retraction on saving herself(!))
(...)
Now, leaving aside the fact that this is pretty silly– what good is having a retraction left when you're dead?– it also ignores the fact that at that point there was one innocent who had a particularly strong motive for wanting to stay alive, and whose death would have been a blow to the village. In other words, his entire argument rests on the assumption that I'm not the Ranger. Who could be sure of that? The Ranger.

Wolves tend to notice that kind of thing, even when the village doesn't.

Okay, this is an interesting observation. It seems a bit complicated to me, although now from the point of view of knowing that skip was the Ranger, it makes sense to see it like that. But I don't think it would be so obvious if you don't know who he is. Of course, it depends.

Now, of course, I could start wondering whether Nerwolf would be so bold to share such a reasoning with people so merrily if it was what she did, although especially in her case, I would not find it impossible to be bold like that. But anyway - in either case, it's an interesting theory (although still I think a bit far-fetched in general). I am going to look at skip a bit myself now.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Alright, can I just say that Brinn isn't the only one who is really bothered by winty's fly-by voting?

Back with more a bit later, probably on Legate/Nerwen/Agan or thereabouts. I really don't think we can afford to keep ignoring winty for long, though.

Originally Posted by Loslote

Agreed about WW; he's getting rather worrisome.

But what are you two actually agreeing about? As I've said already said, it's kind of late in the game for a "just-in-case" lynch. This is probably the last Day we could lynch him to see what he is... and look how well that's been working.

EDIT:X'd with two Legates.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Me

–Now, why does that entire post of Legate's give me a bad feeling?

To answer my own question:

I think it's because, with 20/20 hindsight, that was quite an obvious slip on the part of our Ranger. My feeling is that an innocent's reaction would be to say, "Oh yes, that must be it," or at least "I wouldn't be surprised", whereas when you're a wolf and have eaten someone for what were to you perfectly sound and logical reason, the theories the villagers come up with often seem completely out the window.

With that in mind, Legate's last couple of posts could fit the pattern of a Legwolf going "Huh?" at the "outlandish" motives I'd ascribed to him, then realising it was actually in his best interests to play along.

Of course this is all extremely subjective and depends entirely on assumptions about how people would act, whether the Cursed has been found or not, etc. So I'm not claiming it's a particularly useful observation, or anything.

EDIT: IMPORTANT THIS POST WAS MADE AFTER LEGATE's AT #916. CANNOT EXPLAIN THIS!

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Whether what I've suggested was, in fact the lupine motivation for killing Skip I couldn't say. However, I don't see why you call it "far fetched" or "complicated", Legate. As I said, the wolf would have been looking for slips like that.

Well, it just seemed to me far-fetched, but as you see, now that I have looked at skip's posts myself, I don't find it so far-fetched anymore. It was rather that it seemed like rather random comments, but now seeing that it was basically all that skip said yesterDay, I could very well imagine a Wolf spotting him, if he/she was paying attention to looking for the Ranger (which probably is a thing a Wolf would do).

[Aganzir]

Just popping in quickly between two classes...

Originally Posted by Nerwen

I can see a way Team Evil might have picked him out.

Hmm I assume that's possible... But would it be enough to make them attack him instead of a sure kill, assuming he had protected somebody? After all he could've ignored the chance of your being a ranger just because he was a newbie, not because he was the ranger himself.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

By the way, it says in the rules that the Ranger can self-protect once

Originally, it did. However in the updated rules it was changed. Thanks to me I guess, sorry skip!

1 Ranger: can’t protect the same person 2 Nights in a row, and cannot protect themselves.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Yes, but since you've been a major exponent of the "good voting is really bad voting" school, wouldn't an Aganwolf want to vote badly?

Haha I might try that some time I'm a wolf... But all in all it's generally too risky. And good voting is not always bad voting, it depends on the person and their reasons for voting a wolf.

Originally Posted by Legate

Would the Seer see the Cursed as innocent?

Yes, as it reads in the rules. And I suppose it's also possible skip was killed, well, for being innocent-looking enough.

Originally Posted by Legate

whether Nerwolf would be so bold to share such a reasoning with people so merrily if it was what she did

Yeah she would... But she would do it as innocent too so it doesn't really tell us anything about her role.

Nerwen has been looking rather innocent today but I'm not convinced of her innocence... She if anybody could pull it off.

And yeah I don't want to push anybody, but if the Unicorn came out we'd have two known innocents and fewer potential wolves...

Okie dokie class time for me.

[Aganzir]

I will be here for the next half an hour or so... but it might well be the last you hear from me today because I'm seeing a friend after that and a) she might kill me if I tried to play werewolf and b) her net connection is extremely bad.

And just in case I don't get back I should probably vote soon, which I don't like at all.

Anybody around?

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

There's something eerie about Legate's few recent posts. He doesn't even bother to acknowledge the points against him, and he uses his time in looking at Skip's posts and basically saying nothing about them... Don't like it at all.

Well I wanted to post just my initial thoughts at the moment and then after doing some work, and hopefully also when others have posted too, post more. Anyway, as for points against me, there has been only very general "he is suspicious" by Loslote with no particular evidence to respond to or the "evidence" is so subjective that it can be hardly commented on. That said, Lottie, that's basically what I can say to your case - whereas in any case I would warn you (although maybe it should be somebody else to tell you so as you might not take me seriously after building the case) not to get too enthusiastic about pursuing some lynch just because you suddenly get a brilliant idea - we've seen this many times.

Okay, and actually looking back, only now have I noticed this post of Nerwen's:

Originally Posted by Nerwen

To answer my own question:

I think it's because, with 20/20 hindsight, that was quite an obvious slip on the part of our Ranger. My feeling is that an innocent's reaction would be to say, "Oh yes, that must be it," or at least "I wouldn't be surprised", whereas when you're a wolf and have eaten someone for what were to you perfectly sound and logical reason, the theories the villagers come up with often seem completely out the window.

With that in mind, Legate's last couple of posts could fit the pattern of a Legwolf going "Huh?" at the "outlandish" motives I'd ascribed to him, then realising it was actually in his best interests to play along.

Of course this is all extremely subjective and depends entirely on assumptions about how people would act, whether the Cursed has been found or not, etc. So I'm not claiming it's a particularly useful observation, or anything.

EDIT: IMPORTANT THIS POST WAS MADE AFTER LEGATE's AT #916. CANNOT EXPLAIN THIS!

Indeed! As I didn't see this post either, so I assume it had to be ABOVE my post. I am pretty certain though that when I was quoting Nerwen (my 917 below), there has been only my post 916 and her post which I am quoting in there... which actually... HEY? WHERE IS IT??? Where did it go?? THAT DOES NOT MAKE ANY SENSE!

Did you edit your post, Nerwen????? Or what???? (And for that matter, I haven't seen her current 914 either! None of the two posts up there, 914 or 915! And where did that one I quoted go???)

Eurgh, totally weird. But I have basically replied to this - why I thought it farfetched and then after reviewing it not - (in the post where I quoted Nerwen's original 914 question which later disappeared), so there is no reason to start about that again.

EDIT: x-ed with Agan

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

I have once again somewhat double-feeling about Agan from the last posts. Generally, I think it looks in some way innocent, in the way she acts, like that she will be subtly rousing more suspicion against Lommy or something had she been a Wolf. On the other hand, maybe she's just sort of "in defense" and making a "passive resistence" (in such a case, however, one would wonder what she would do, as a Wolf, if Nerwen was lynched and innocent. On the other hand, she might probably find another lynch target). Okay, the post where she sort of "half-joke" (well, it's not like a joke, but it is in a bit of a light tone, it seems to me) suspects practically everybody, could be seen as a basis for eventually developing a serious suspicion for somebody of those listed later, but it's a bit too obvious or bold, sort of... on the other hand, okay, at least the second word in connection to Aganzir does not help much. But basically... okay, maybe if I think about the kills... I wonder whether Aganwolf wouldn't be a bit more daring in killing people; on the other hand, if there have been other packmembers until quite recently and now maybe... hmm, well, maybe if she was just looking for the Cursed among the quieter people? (And possibly for Ranger toNight, which could be related to her dismissing that idea now - although again, not sure if it will be of much good to her, wouldn't it be better just to stay put?)

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Did you edit your post, Nerwen????? Or what???? (And for that matter, I haven't seen her current 914 either! None of the two posts up there, 914 or 915! And where did that one I quoted go???)

By the way, note - it occured to me: didn't you by any chance edit your post instead of quoting mine or instead of posting a new one or something like that... because that's the only logical explanation I can come up with (like, that would explain why your post is missing there - you have "overwritten" it with this one, which would explain why it is before, and not after my post).

Whatever... is anybody else around?

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Indeed! As I didn't see this post either, so I assume it had to be ABOVE my post. I am pretty certain though that when I was quoting Nerwen (my 917 below), there has been only my post 916 and her post which I am quoting in there... which actually... HEY? WHERE IS IT??? Where did it go?? THAT DOES NOT MAKE ANY SENSE!

Did you edit your post, Nerwen????? Or what???? (And for that matter, I haven't seen her current 914 either! None of the two posts up there, 914 or 915! And where did that one I quoted go???)

No, I didn't edit my post (except to make a note of what had happened). I just replied to yours as usual.

I have met this phenomenon of posts suddenly appearing in the wrong place before, on other sites, but this is the first time I've seen it here.

EDIT: punctuation.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Okay, so looking through skip's posts, I am not really sure how much he could have been perceived as Ranger. There is however one thing not from yesterDay, but from the Day before, which maybe in connection to the thing mentioned by Nerwen could make him look Ranger-y:

Originally Posted by skip spence

Alright.

++Morsul

Better him than me (apart from what I've already said)!

And then the next Day:

Originally Posted by skip spence

Interesting to note is that Nerwen uses her retraction "to save herself" although this in fact was not as vital as I first thought. When Nerwen re-voted Morsul was on 5 votes while Nerwen was on 3 with only Brinn left to vote, so even without the retraction she'd likely have survived.

Which is sort of in contradiction, would-be showing that Skip applies different rules on himself than on others ("better him than me" vs. the latter). It's sort of questionable as there were still many people left to vote back then when skip voted, but then again, if he was leaving and not expecting to vote after that... but there is also the other thing Nerwen mentioned, and now actually seeing it it looks a bit more "there is something more important than being innocent"-knowing.

Originally Posted by skip spence

If you are innocent I think it more probable that you'd take the risk of keeping the retraction and hoping none shows up to vote again. The consequences for the innocent team wouldn't have been that bad if this happened.

However, if you are a wolf, the consequences of getting lynched then would have been the greatest imaginable: the game would be instantly lost. There would be no comfort-zone to take chances.

And, of course, speaking of that, his sort of general opposition for Agan's wasting-retractions theory is even a lot more reasonable now: he obviously had personal interest in keeping his retraction, as saving himself might have been crucial if necessary. On the other hand, yesterDay he used his retraction in circumstances where he wasn't threatened (he retracted from Nerwen to Agan), so one would think that would've spoken sort of against him being the Ranger. But who knows.

Anyway, it does not seem to me that there would be anything in his posts pointing towards the knowledge whether he made a save yesterNight or not. Well, I guess no can do.

So... I'll be off now for a moment, but will try to stay updated and then be back to contribute something more.

EDIT: x-ed with Nerwen