Werewolf LXXXIII: The Nightmare on the East Road

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

and this is nonsense - like a gifted can't say "I was stunned last Night" without having to say "So I couldn't dream/protect"? Did he really not get that, or is he trying to make Agan's suggestion look worse than it already is?

Think of yourself as a gifted in a game and learn you were stunned - so someone was already after you! Would you like to bring yourself to the spotlight the next Day calling "hey, it was me the BW picked! Probably for no reason, we must have a reaally bad BW choosing an innocent like that!"

About the BW and the wolves "joining forces" - what are their chances of doing it and their willingness to do it? BW needs kills happening as fast as they can, so she would love to pick the ranger - but she might be happy if the seer gets a wolf or two (so not happy to stun the seer)? Then again the wolves would love to see the BW stun the ranger and the seer as many times as possible, but they'd have to make us lynch her sooner or later.

So I think there is an unworded truce between the two sides now as in the beginning their aspirations do meet. But the going will get rough between them thel ess people there are - especially if the number of wolves gets down early on.

The problem to them is I think this: in the beginning they might wish to co-operate, but there's little to go on finding the other side - in the endgame there might be chances of locating the other side, but then they are already deadly enemies...

Originally Posted by Agan

2. I might have misunderstood something, but I don't see why they couldn't win together. If the BW could only win with the village, why isn't she officially on our side?

Wasn't it said the BW is like a werebear, a team of her own?

Bah, you guys keep posting too fast...

[wilwarin538]

Originally Posted by Volo

Yowiebowiedavidglowie!
1. Contrary to Agan's idea of having a common vote for BW extermination, sponsored by TB, I think it will be more sensible to not to anger BW at Day. If BW is in danger of being lynched, xe will most likely start revealing things in favour of the Wolves, such as xis mildly educated hunches about the identities of the Gifted. As long as TB is alive, it is better not to make an open enemy out of BW. Ok, xe is be against us, and we against xim, but there is mutual benefit in not concentrating too much in the demise of the other party. Instead, the Wolves.
2. The BW needs to be the last wight standing, so it is in xis favour to keep at least one Wolf alive, for the game to progress faster. Now if(when) we manage to lynch two Wolves, BW will be quite the Cobbler, though not as self-sacrificing as one. At that point especially it would be beneficial not to have xim reveal what xe knows openly.

First, I don't understand why you think the BW will get any information from who he's stunned. Second, why on earth would he reveal himself? The village could then lynch him, or Tom could then kill him, he would never do that, even if he was being lynched.

Just noticed this:

Originally Posted by Boro

I originally thought if no more wolves remain the B-W would still just continue stunning at night and then lynch people during the day. However, this may unecessarily drag out the game, so after some Modly deliberation. If no more wolves remain, the B-W's powers increase and instead of just being stunned at night, the person is stone-cold dead. Final decision.

Thanks. That clears that up. So basically the BW could totally be on our side right now. He can help get rid of the wolvies and then he will get his magic killing powers, which he probably would really like to have. So right now he is on our side in the sense that he also wants the wolves dead, but once that's accomplished he'll want to kill everyone.

x'ed with Agan x 2 and Nog

[wilwarin538]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

So, Boro, how about the BW winning with the wolves?

Can't happen, he needs to be alone at the end, which means no more wolves. Once the wolves are gone he can slowly pick off the remaining innocents (and I guess the Cobblers would be innocents at that point, if the wolves are gone, or would they start helping the BW?)

Oh, and another question, if the wolves were to kill Barliman the same Night that BW chooses Barliman, does that mean the wolves still get a kill the following Night?

[Aganzir]

Pitch guess what? I'm drinking mate.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

And when people tell, the wolves have a good candidate for consideration ("the BW thought of that as a gifted, let's consider her/him as well more closely").

I still disagree with this. Who said the BW will only try to stun the gifteds? How about trying to find Ferny, or even a wolf to make things more difficult for them? You misunderstood what I originally meant, fine, why do you have to keep implying things that weren't there? I already realised it was a bad idea, thanks to wilwa.

And if you're innocent Agan, please help us finding suspicious behaviour.

Ah but I am. Or doesn't your behaviour count as suspicious by your standards?

Okay thanks Boro.

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

Yes!, and I think we've covered that rather extensively, not to mention it's been stated over-explicitely in the rules, so I marvel how an innocent Agan seriously couldn't have got it.

I was under the impression the BW only needed to survive till the end - I didn't apparently interpret "last man standing" quite so literally. But yeah this makes things clearer.

edit: xed with Kath - I provided a tally in #85.

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Nog replying to me re Agan's 2nd plan

Think of yourself as a gifted in a game and learn you were stunned - so someone was already after you! Would you like to bring yourself to the spotlight the next Day calling "hey, it was me the BW picked! Probably for no reason, we must have a reaally bad BW choosing an innocent like that!"

Yes, but the BW doesn't know who the gifted's are, they can only guess, just like the wolves; and like the wolves, they can be lucky and hit the nail on the head, but (speaking from personal experience) just as often or more often they'll be as much groping in the dark as the ordos. As I've said, there's a lot of problems with Agan's plan, but that's not one of them.
(Unless, say, the narration should happen to mention that e.g. the Seer's dream was blocked by the BW. In this case, the Seer obviously shouldn't say anything about being stunned, and any innocent worth a pinch of salt should know better than say they weren't and help the wolves finding the Seer by default.)

Originally Posted by Nog

About the BW and the wolves "joining forces" - what are their chances of doing it and their willingness to do it? BW needs kills happening as fast as they can, so she would love to pick the ranger - but she might be happy if the seer gets a wolf or two (so not happy to stun the seer)? Then again the wolves would love to see the BW stun the ranger and the seer as many times as possible, but they'd have to make us lynch her sooner or later.

So I think there is an unworded truce between the two sides now as in the beginning their aspirations do meet. But the going will get rough between them the less people there are - especially if the number of wolves gets down early on.

The problem to them is I think this: in the beginning they might wish to co-operate, but there's little to go on finding the other side - in the endgame there might be chances of locating the other side, but then they are already deadly enemies...

Yes, yes, and yes. I think I said as much in fewer words already.

Originally Posted by Nog

Wasn't it said the BW is like a werebear, a team of her own?

Yes!, and I think we've covered that rather extensively, not to mention it's been stated over-explicitely in the rules, so I marvel how an innocent Agan seriously couldn't have got it. Hmmm...
Someone, I think wilwa?, has raised the question what would happen if the sole survivors are BW + a lone wolf or BW + a lone innocent. BW can't kill the wolf, BW can't kill the innocent; wolf can't kill BW, innocent can't lynch BW*, so I guess both of these scenarios would be considered a draw. What would happen if the last survivors are BW and Tom? Tom could kill BW -> village victory; unless BW stuns him, but then Tom will get xem the next Night - xe can't stun the same person two Nights in a row, can xe?
*(or wait - actually, if BW and lone innocent vote for each other, there'll be a coin-flip, so we might still get lucky!)
Anyway, there's no way the BW can win with either the wolves or the village.

(x-ed with the mod: Oops! Adjust what I said about endgame scenarios accordingly.)

EDIT: also x-ed with #81 down