WW CVI: Tol-in-Westeros Game Thread

[Inziladun]

Give me a break! Seer gone, not even at the hands of the Lions. And we know her vote was an Ordo.

And what did G55 do to get the Lions' attention? I think that's the only useful info from the Nightly activity.

[Kitanna]

Well....fudge...

I've been slowly going through the posts from yesterday (I'm on the top of page 3 only). And if I had to make a guess as to why the bear got Wilwa based solely on what I've read so far 1) the lovers thought she was a lion trying to steer the conversation toward them rather than toward the lions. She is the one who started the lover and hunter talk. This only works if the lovers are indeed trying to kill the lions rather than villagers. Also turns out right now I have no #2 theory. Not yet anyway.

Long post to follow soon on my notes from the first few pages. Then more long posts to eventually follow about the last few pages.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Kitanna

And if I had to make a guess as to why the bear got Wilwa based solely on what I've read so far 1) the lovers thought she was a lion trying to steer the conversation toward them rather than toward the lions. She is the one who started the lover and hunter talk. This only works if the lovers are indeed trying to kill the lions rather than villagers. Also turns out right now I have no #2 theory. Not yet anyway.

Could be, I guess. But weren't a lot of people talking about the Lovers?

[Kitanna]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

Could be, I guess. But weren't a lot of people talking about the Lovers?

Yes, but she started it. It's not a great theory, but it's all I currently have.

[Volo]

I'm inclined to agree that rather than trying to kill the Seer, it's more likely the Bear tried to kill a Lion. Which could make the Bear someone who genuinely suspected wilwa during the Day.

G55's strong phrasings might give us a clue. I'll go check that one too.

[Kitanna]

Originally Posted by Zil

So, our hosts were killed by a lion and a bear? Now all we need are tigers.

Oh my. I’m sad I missed this post yesterday just for the sheer hilarity of it.

Originally Posted by Wilwa

So with the bear and the maiden basically what we want is for the bear to lose his killing power, and there's a few ways for that to happen; either he is killed or his maiden dies. So really either of them dying would be good and would get rid of the double night kill. But, the interesting thing is that we don't want to be the ones to kill one of them first, cause that would create a cobbler. So we basically have to hope that the wolves kill one of them so that the other will just be an ord. Kind of interesting that we want to avoid lynching the bear, very weird!

So this post seemed to start the lover conversation that dominated the D1. That same post also started the hunter talk.

Now with the coin toss the better result depends on where we are in the game. If it tosses that they survive an extra day that could be very useful closer to the end of the game when we need as many goodies as possible, where them dying and possibly taking down another innocent could be very detrimental,so it's better to just have them around (and I would assume we would know their role and be told it's their last day alive? so we'd also have a known innocent if that's the case). However, earlier in the game we would want them to get to use their power and hopefully take down a baddie, and if they accidentally take down an innocent we are still early enough in the game where our numbers are big enough to be able to not feel it as much as we would later.

Which Mac suggested Wilwa was steering the conversation away from trying to find lions by bringing up these roles. However, and I know others said the same, that the role of the lions never changed, so talking about the changed hunter role and the lovers was a good way to get D1 conversations flowing.

Originally Posted by Mac

Then again, Wilwa is one main reason nearly all we do is talk about lovers instead about wolves, which I don't like.

Originally Posted by Zil

And both of them want to stay alive, naturally. What's always difficult about a Lover pair is that they can choose which side they want to support, and could change their minds in an instant depending on circumstance. However, the death of one takes away that choice from the survivor. Very interesting indeed.

Zil takes the conversation further by stating the lovers can chose what side to support. In all honesty this had never even crossed my mind. I just viewed the lovers as powerful cobblers (with no specific alliance like a real cobbler) who did what was in their best interest, not necessarily depending on lions or village. Which was a bit naïve of me seeing that the lovers would have to side with someone eventually, even if it was brief, to keep themselves alive.

Originally Posted by g55

That's true. However, if push comes to shove, I'd trade the extra kill for a cobbler.

&

They become a known innocent. Well, as known as a revealed gifted with no proof can get. Could be helpful under the right circumstances, could be not. At any rate, I think it's for the hunter to decide if revealing at any given moment will pay off rather than keep their ability.

&

The survival ability also gives us the known innocent for an extra day without having a reveal. This is always useful, but especially so towards the end of the game. A live and known innocent! And we would know more from the wolves (bears?) motives without actually having that person killed. Like a Ranger save, except that the Ranger does not have to reveal. I must say, I rather like this option. The other side of the coin is your regular illogical hunter, as I understand.

Galadriel makes some good points in her last part about the hunter’s altered role being like a ranger save. Nice and helpful. I don't see much there to indicate why she was a target. Maybe too helpful in the lionesses' eyes?

Originally Posted by Mac

Wilwa of House Mormont gives good advice concerning lovers and hunter. I agree. Galadriel the wildling adds some sense, too, but Inzil of House Tully's comments on Wilwa's points seem more looking-to-be-helpful rather than actually helpful to me. Then again, Encai finds him helpful, so maybe I'm too eager to find something suspicious in what little has been posted so far.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Hmmn. I do believe Mac Connington talks sense. I've been sitting here listening to you all from my dark corner, and what do I hear? "Bears... Targaryens..." Barely a word from any of you about these murderous were-Lannisters we know are among us. I wonder whose interest it might be in to steer the conversation away from that particular topic?

Seeing as the bear kills at night I am in favor of discussing the role and weighing our possibilities of survival with bear and lions on the loose. I said D1 that I wouldn’t actively be searching for bear hints, but I think it’s important to talk about it. If for no other reason than it did get the conversation flowing, otherwise we’d have spent D1 twindling our thumbs and bantering.

Originally Posted by Lommy

In conclusion, we should focus on finding the wolves, but personally I'm not too saddened if the bear and/or his lover become casualties in our wolf hunt. No offense, but I will feel safer without a bear roaming in the Night, even if the bear is trying to kill wolves, because I don't trust anybody's judgement more than the collective judgement of the village. (And honestly I don't see the cobbler as a big problem.)

I agree with Lommy, which means she’s probably evil given my recent track record of trusting the wrong people.

So the following posts didn't really grab my attention until I read them back to back

Originally Posted by Mac

"I believe the matter at hand is clear enough. Were-Lannisters have killed our innkeeps, and there is little reason to believe they won't strike again the coming night. Since obviously we can't just leave this cursed place, we need to find who in our midst is secretly the worst among the Usurper's ilk." He looked around the common room in mistrust, then glanced again at his gloved hand. "And we don't have much time to do so! This place is suspiciously quiet and void of a sense of urgency!"

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Hmmn. I do believe Mac Connington talks sense. I've been sitting here listening to you all from my dark corner, and what do I hear? "Bears... Targaryens..." Barely a word from any of you about these murderous were-Lannisters we know are among us. I wonder whose interest it might be in to steer the conversation away from that particular topic?

Originally Posted by Lommy

What? Are you joking? This is such a classic wolf post I'm almost willing to give you the benefit of doubt, but not really.

Jumping on someone else's point to create suspicion against a group of people? Check. Throwing around vague suspicion that can't bear close inspection? Check.

Of course people are talking about the bear and the modified hunter this early on. It's always the exceptional rules that start the discussion on Day1 (it was the same last game, for example).

But ironically, your post has started the actual wolf suspicions (both by you suspecting the earlier posters and by me now suspecting you) so maybe I shouldn't complain.

I know I quote Nerwen’s twice, but I wanted it included in this string. I find this exchange interesting because Mac starts out mostly IC, but making a point that the talk is more about bears and hunters than lions, which should be our number one concern. Not unreasonable given we win the game when the lions are all dead.
Then Nerwen jumps on this with “yes, this is sense, look sense.” Which comes off as being overly helpful toward another player.
Then Lommy jumps in saying Nerwen is using a classic wolf tactic, while doing so herself. By jumping on Nerwen’s acceptance of Mac’s post and for throwing around vague suspicions. In this little chain I would say Nerwen and Lommy both look suspicious.
Lommy and Nerwen continued back and forth about the hunter after that. Mostly it revolved around the hunter revealing or what happened in the event the hunter was attacked. Mac jumped in with

Originally Posted by Mac

1. He gets lynched - He will either take somebody down with him, or survive the lynching and live another day. What if wolves/bear target him during the Night, though?
2. He gets killed at Night - Again, the hunter will either take someone down as well, or there is no kill that Night (or one kill less) and he gets to survive through the coming day. In the latter case, will the village be told his identity?
3. He chooses to reveal - I highly doubt the mods will step in and confirm the reveal. Takes away the fun of fake reveals. Demonstration?

I'm the Targaryen!

He looks around the inn, twenty irritated faces staring back at him.

See, nothing is happening. We're south of the Wall, the dwarves aren't going to walk among us coldly again for no good reason. (Clarification on points 1 and 2 would be useful, though. )

Even if there was confirmation, though, the hunter would be crazy to reveal now, considering how useful he could be late in the game. All we would gain is one kill-less Night, since the Night's Watch would take care of him, but the next Night he'd be bread fried in bacon grease.

I’m pretty sure his fake reveal means he’s guilty and trying to distract us or he’s a crazy ordo. Though, I’m not all that familiar with GoT, but I’m pretty sure the Targaryen’s were crazy due to inbreeding. So maybe he is the Targaryen or maybe another kid of Jamie and Cersei (I’m not really suggesting this last bit)

Originally Posted by Volo

We could use this time to forge an alliance with the Lovers.
Early in the game it makes sense not to pressure the Lovers.
It also makes sense for the Lovers to try and hunt down Lannisters,
since Lannisters are the greatest danger to the Lovers at this moment.
If the advantage shifts to the Lannisters in a couple of Days,
we might want to reconsider (meaning making personal notes on Lover suspicion).
I'll count the Bear as a kind of friendly neighborhood Assassin to begin with.

Part of what Volo says makes sense, but some does not. I agree that the lions are the biggest threat to the lovers (unless of course one fell under heavy suspicion) so they would want to hunt lions. But forging an alliance? How? The bear is likely to kill an innocent during the night. And friendly neighborhood assassin? Pretty crappy assassin that doesn’t even know his/her mark.

Originally Posted by Gil

Granted that the double night kills are scary, but keep in mind that Lions and the Bear will ideally choose their marks based on the days results. The Bear's greatest threat would be Lions, and would be smart to hunt them out first. On the flip side, the Lions are right to be afraid of the Bear at night and would see that threat gone immediately, anyway possible.

In a perfect game the two sides would just destroy each other. Too bad WW is generally messy.

Originally Posted by Gil

It is the beginning of the game, and if we focus on removing the Bear and succeed in that, we simply remove another threat from the Lions. Sure, the Lions and Bear might work together to take out us innocents, but I find that unlikely since:

A: They don't know who each other are, so as much as they want to be buddies, they could end up killing each other off.

B: They are a bigger threat to each other this early in the game, since this is the first day and battle lines haven't been drawn yet.

I would argue for lynching 1-2 Lions first, then going for the Bear.

It is a double-edged sword, but by removing the Bear as a threat to the villagers we help the Lions. The greatest strength the villagers have is numbers, we can take a few blows for the greater good (the greater good) while we get a lay of the land. This is the nature of the game, and we cannot fight it.

So if the Bear is reading this, I don't want you to be afraid but know that though it is (currently) 1/21 chance to be lynched, it would be a 1/18 chance for a Lion to get you. This whole talk of "getting the bear first" plays right into the Lion's hands, who just want another threat to them removed off the board in the guise of saving the innocents.

Our key enemy here is the Lions, and the rules of the game dictate we must die for the greater good (the greater good), which I wholeheartedly accept and understand.

I think this is a very sensible breakdown. I think we can all agree no one wants the double kills at night, but at the same time the lovers could be an asset if they are hunting the lions too.
The problem with this of course is the lovers don’t know who the lions are and keeping them alive could end this game very quickly. But also the lions probably want the lovers alive for extra kills. I’m waffling between hunting bears and hunting lions. My gut says lions because if we can eliminate that threat, who cares if the lovers live until the end?

Originally Posted by Boro

If the lions know who the bear and/or maiden is then they'll likely only become concerned if the bear becomes a clear threat by killing off Lions. However, the wiser move would be as I said, to use us as their weapons to get one of the lovers lynched, that way the other becomes a cobbler for them. And again in this inn with this many different allegiances it can be easier for the Lions to keep their paws clean.

This is me reading the posts in order because I missed a lot of D1. I'll be back with pages 3-5 later.