Werewolf LXXXIII: The Nightmare on the East Road

[Kath]

Well thanks so much Eomer for that kind greeting. Let's all suspect him now for saying he was going to kill me and Form but then going after Agan! That's suspicious right?

Can someone throw a vote count at me? I have skimmed not read and that's going to stay the same really. So I'd like to know who's for the gallows and have a better look at them.

Ah and so I make no unfortunate errors ... Pitchwife - male or female?

[wilwarin538]

It just hit me that there's only an hour left to the Day, how did that happen? It seems to be coming at us way too fast.

So I need to vote, cause my family is about to sit down for a nice supper and then I have to go out. So I'm going to go for:

++ Glirdan

99% of the reason I'm voting him is because he makes no sense to me, he seems more jumpy and nervous than usual, the way he was trying to take Agan's idea and make it into something regarding Cobblers, but never really explaining how the heck that would work, and I just am not getting good vibes from him at all. The other 1% is out of spite for him voting me.

x'ed with Agan

[Aganzir]

Okay, sally doesn't look so bad anymore (apart from the fact that she didn't really come up with anything of her own)... It's funny how much more sense everybody seems to make now that I know the wolves & the BW can't win together. Way to go me.

However, Volo & Glirdan don't look any better and neither does Nog. I'm the least certain of Glirdy, but I might end up voting for him.

Also, Pitch - if I don't get something, it has nothing to do with my allegiance. I don't pretend confusion about the rules to make myself look better, I find it unsportsmanlike.

[Kath]

Eomer - Agan
Glirdan - wilwa
Volo - Agan 2
sally - Agan 3
Greenie - Glirdan
wilwa - Glirdan 2

Thanks Agan, missed that as I went through. I added wilwa's vote on. Our Canadians are voting against each other. Interesting?

[Nogrod]

So, I've been skimming the thread through and here are a few points I was able to make from it.


Lottie: Here I agree with wilwa; she was thinking about a scenario that would have given us an extra-lynch. That I would call rather good. So those easily juymping on her look more suspicious to me than her.

Sally seems to be trying this time. She's not only dealing cookies and talking random. So should I be suspicious of her? I am.

Glirdan made a totally freaky vote, even underlining the randomness of it. I've been a wolf with him two times lately and I can say it's pure horror (sorry Glirdy, but you really made me nervous those times). He's not too composed this time either and could indeed be a wolf once again (third time from late summer?). My only problem with lynching him would be - with the odds of him being a wolf once again - that he's oftentimes also the "easy victim" for lynch, because of the way he plays.


Adding this:

Eomer & Form: the veterans making their worst act and more or less refusing to play thinking they're granted to get to D2 anyway...

Reminding you about what Greenie said: it's not just the bad vote or not saying anything as such, but the fact that a wolf can hide in it the next Day just saying “oh, that was just D1, you know, just random, you can’t suspect me from it!”. And even if we all know better, we tend to want to vote rather someone we have even the slightest "real suspicion" based on what people said about other people (however many times we have been proven wrong with our hunches) than going with a random voter / talker.

*I so miss those days when non-players were lynched immediately*

Anyway, I seem to get under their spell and would be very reluctant to vote either just because it has been such a long time they have been around. You guys show you're worth skipping D1! And if one of you is a baddie I don't care how long a break you take in WW the next time, but come back and play like that I'll vote for you, on D1. And will heavily urge others to do likewise.


Heh, just saw Form's vote... well, not so bad... there's a minuscule amount of reasoning there... like a nanomillimeter of involvement. Should I call that encouraging?

[Pitchwife]

Ah, crap, now my head is swimming already. I should really know better than to indulge in Barley's brew at a time like this.
Anyway -

Originally Posted by Agan

Well, for that you can only blame yourself, not me.

Not really. Think again, and look at all you've said.

Update to my list (see #68):
- Moving wilwa from 3 to 2. She really looks like a reasonable innocent to me.
- On further consideration, same for Nerwen. I really don't think her remark about an evil Tom was serious.
- (I feel inclined to include Zil here, only I've learned the hard way that it won't do to trust him too much, however innocent he seems.)
- Moving Greenie from 5 to 4 - not because she dropped her suspicion of me (which I think wasn't badly reasoned), but because her last posts look more and more genuine to me.

On other matters, I note wilwa's objections to what I've said about Lottie, and I'm a bit concerned I may have fallen into the very trap I tried to caution against, i.e. thinking too much about the BW (and how the wolves would deal with xem) and too little about finding the wolves themselves. So if anybody finds any holes in my reasoning, for Eru's sake point them out, please.

(Kath - male, last time I checked. However, you've heard my voice on Skype, so why pretend confusion???)

(x-ed with I don't know how many)

[Pitchwife]

Let me just say Form's vote was crap. Lynch one of the players who've made most sense toDay, really? At best, it was uninFormed.

I see no urgent reason to lynch Nog or Volo yet, I'm torn about Agan but I think I like her response to suspicion and would like to keep her around, and I'm having second thoughts about Lottie thanks to wilwa (plus she's not around to explain herself). So falling back on my second-best option
++Glirdan

EDIT: x-ed #105 down

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Done with page 2, and figured I should post as it's getting near deadline.

Originally Posted by Aganzir

I agree with this. If the Barrow-Wight isn't on our side, she's (potentially) against us, and I'd much rather we didn't have to worry about her in the later stages when it really matters whether she plays for us or for the wolves.

What on earth? There's no incentive for the Barrow-Wight to play for us at all, because we cannot win until the Barrow-Wight has been ousted - therefore classifying the Barrow-Wight as even "possibly" helpful makes no sense at all. I'm not sure who looks worse for bringing this point up at all - Inzil (who brought it up in the first place) or Agan (who took it and ran with it).

Originally Posted by Pitch

OK, to business. As for the cobblers, we've had this discussion any number of times, and the big problem is, as always, that it's not so easy to tell cobblerish evil from wolvish evil. TEW has a point that they would very likely prefer not to be lynched (or Night-killed*, for that matter) before they've had a chance to communicate, but then again, I think a good cobbler won't mind to be lynched in order to save who he thinks is a wolf, especially when there's two of them. On the wolves' side, we can't count on them being visibly protective of their packmates either - some will, others won't hesitate to bus one another, it really depends on the player. So the long and short of it is, if it looks suspicious, lynch it and we'll find out what it was.

Long, long post to say exactly what others have already said. I don't trust it, I don't.

Originally Posted by Wilwa

Bad idea. First of all if he chooses an Ordo they won't know they were chosen since they don't have to do anything at Night,

Don't Ordos still get a PM saying "you are stunned"? I could have sworn that was in the rules somewhere... Oh, Agan has already mentioned this. Nevermind then.

Originally Posted by Glirdan

I was looking at this and I do like this plan. My only issue with it is, even the TBW is totally playing for himself, the Wolves might find a way of using it to their advantage. But on the flip side of that coin, there stands the chance that we could catch a Wolf trying to do just that.

How, precisely? Tom Bombadil looking for the BW has nothing to do with the Wolves, as far as I can tell, so I'm not sure what you're getting at here.

Originally Posted by Agan

I'm not saying the BW should be our priority and we need to worry about her more than about the wolves & cobblers, what I'm saying is that we shouldn't forget and ignore her just because she might choose to side with us

And again, why would the BW side with us when they know we want them gone (and have to get them gone in order to win)?

Originally Posted by Glirdan

I was trying to figure out if there was anyway that we could use your voting plan to try help us oust the Cobblers

Yes, but I notice you have yet to say 'how', even if you've since dropped this 'plan'.

Originally Posted by Volo

The hunches won't be much more educated than a basic Ordo's, but the ability to stun might give more insight, nothing certain, of course, but nevertheless, if we could kill a Cobbler quietly during the Night, it would surely be an advantage.

Quite a lot of people talking about 'might' with nothing to back them up. And what's this about 'we'? As far as I know, innocents don't kill anything "quietly during the Night".

Originally Posted by Agan

I really don't like sally's vote and her reasons behind it. It's basically just repeating what others have said, and it doesn't even make sense.

I'm pulling a Lottie here and saying that people saying other people's votes for them "don't make sense" reeks of baddie-ism. But then again it is Agan, who's evil even when she's not.